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NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, APRIL 27, 2007 Virginia H. Mannering: Recorded message: (202) 606-5304 (202) 606-5306 BEA 07-18 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2007 (ADVANCE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter “advance” estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The firstquarter “preliminary” estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 31, 2007. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports, an upturn in imports, a deceleration in PCE for nondurable goods, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an upturn in equipment and software, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an acceleration in PCE for durable goods. Final sales of computers contributed 0.04 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.22 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.09 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 1.18 percentage points from the fourth-quarter growth. NOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Prices indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov/bea/rels.htm. - more - -2The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the fourth. About 0.2 percentage point of the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for by the pay raise for federal civilian and military personnel, which is treated as an increase in the price index of employee services purchased by the federal government. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 7.3 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 5.9 percent. Services expenditures increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 3.1 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 1.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 17.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 19.8 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 10.6 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 2.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.6 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.6 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 6.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.3 percent. Nondefense increased 4.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 9.6 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 3.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent. The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.30 percentage point from the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.16 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $14.8 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $22.4 billion in the fourth quarter and $55.4 billion in the third. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent in the fourth. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the fourth. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $245.7 billion (9.2 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $126.1 billion (4.7 percent) in the fourth. Personal current taxes increased $57.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $24.0 billion in the fourth. - more - -3Disposable personal income increased $188.0 billion (8.0 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $102.0 billion (4.3 percent) in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent. Personal outlays increased $173.3 billion (7.3 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $86.5 billion (3.6 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was a negative $102.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with a negative $117.5 billion in the fourth. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -was a negative 1.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with a negative 1.2 percent in the fourth. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on “Personal Saving” on BEA’s Web site. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts, go to http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/Nipa-Frd.asp. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.3 percent, or $174.4 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $13,632.6 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $135.6 billion. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, “GDP and the Economy.” * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release – May 31, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2007 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2007 - more - -4Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: “Advance” estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, “preliminary” and “final” estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The “latest” estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions. Annual revisions, which cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried out each summer and incorporate more comprehensive data including annual surveys. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar and real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the preliminary estimate (one month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the final estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision (with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.4 percentage point, which is larger than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the preliminary or to the final estimates. The larger average revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements such as the introduction of chain indexes and the capitalization of software. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real GDP 98 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether it is accelerating or decelerating 74 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth more than three-fifths of the time. Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages Compared Average Average without regard to sign Standard deviation of revision without regard to sign Current-dollar GDP Advance to preliminary..... Advance to final................ Preliminary to final........... 0.2 .2 .0 0.5 .7 .3 0.4 .4 .2 Advance to latest............... .4 1.2 .9 Real GDP Advance to preliminary..... Advance to final................ Preliminary to final........... 0.1 .1 .0 0.5 .6 .3 0.4 .4 .2 Advance to latest............... .4 1.3 1.0 NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2003. - more - Table 1.—Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2003 II III 2004 IV I II 2005 III IV I II 2006 III IV I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product (GDP) ................... 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 7.5 2.7 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 4.2 1.8 5.6 2.6 2.0 2.5 1.3 Personal consumption expenditures ........................... 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.6 5.8 2.3 4.7 2.9 3.9 4.3 2.7 4.2 3.9 .8 4.8 2.6 2.8 4.2 3.8 Durable goods .............................................................. 6.4 5.5 5.0 16.8 16.7 .7 6.1 1.7 8.7 6.1 2.4 12.8 9.0 –12.3 19.8 –.1 6.4 4.4 7.3 Nondurable goods ........................................................ 3.6 4.5 3.7 2.3 7.7 1.8 4.3 1.7 3.7 5.4 5.2 4.9 3.4 3.9 5.9 1.4 1.5 5.9 2.9 Services ........................................................................ 3.5 2.6 2.6 1.8 2.9 2.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.4 1.6 2.3 3.2 2.0 1.6 3.7 2.8 3.4 3.7 Gross private domestic investment ............................. 9.8 5.4 4.3 3.3 17.7 9.3 4.8 21.7 2.0 5.1 8.2 –3.6 5.2 16.2 7.8 1.0 –.8 –15.2 –6.5 Fixed investment .......................................................... 7.3 7.5 2.9 10.6 13.6 5.5 2.2 11.7 7.6 4.9 7.8 10.5 6.3 2.8 8.2 –1.6 –1.2 –9.1 –4.7 Nonresidential ........................................................... 5.9 6.8 7.2 10.7 9.4 2.8 1.7 7.2 10.3 8.3 6.0 5.2 5.9 5.2 13.7 4.4 10.0 –3.1 2.0 Structures ............................................................. 2.2 1.1 9.0 14.7 –.8 –4.7 3.3 6.9 3.1 –2.0 5.3 –2.0 –7.0 12.0 8.7 20.3 15.7 .8 2.2 Equipment and software ..................................... 7.3 8.9 6.5 9.3 13.2 5.6 1.2 7.3 13.0 12.3 6.3 7.9 11.0 2.8 15.6 –1.4 7.7 –4.8 1.9 Residential ................................................................ 9.9 8.6 –4.2 10.5 22.2 10.6 3.1 19.8 3.2 –.6 11.1 20.0 7.1 –.9 –.3 –11.1 –18.7 –19.8 –17.0 Change in private inventories ...................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ............................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports .......................................................................... 9.2 6.8 8.9 –1.7 11.4 20.8 7.2 6.2 4.8 9.9 4.7 9.4 3.2 9.6 14.0 6.2 6.8 10.6 –1.2 Goods ....................................................................... 9.0 7.5 10.5 –1.2 8.8 19.8 7.1 6.4 8.3 6.1 5.5 12.8 3.7 11.5 17.3 6.0 9.4 8.4 –.8 Services .................................................................... 9.7 5.1 5.4 –2.8 17.5 23.1 7.5 5.6 –2.8 19.2 2.9 2.0 2.1 5.5 6.7 6.7 .8 16.3 –2.3 Imports .......................................................................... 10.8 6.1 5.8 4.1 3.7 17.6 10.2 16.0 4.4 12.0 4.1 1.4 2.5 13.2 9.1 1.4 5.6 –2.6 2.3 Goods ....................................................................... 10.9 6.7 5.9 8.6 .6 17.2 10.1 17.7 4.7 12.6 4.9 2.0 2.7 14.1 9.4 –.1 7.1 –4.1 1.9 Services .................................................................... 10.0 2.8 5.3 –15.7 21.2 19.6 10.9 7.6 3.1 9.0 –.2 –1.5 1.2 8.3 7.4 9.9 –2.6 6.2 4.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................................................... 1.9 .9 2.1 6.1 1.5 .7 2.9 2.2 1.3 –1.9 1.6 1.1 3.4 –1.1 4.9 .8 1.7 3.4 .9 Federal .......................................................................... 4.3 1.5 2.0 19.7 .4 3.1 7.2 2.5 5.0 –5.2 3.4 .4 9.6 –4.6 8.8 –4.5 1.3 4.6 –3.0 National defense ...................................................... 5.9 1.7 1.9 36.3 –5.3 8.1 9.1 2.0 9.1 –9.1 4.5 2.9 11.2 –9.9 8.9 –2.0 –1.2 12.3 –6.6 Nondefense .............................................................. 1.2 1.1 2.1 –6.4 12.4 –6.0 3.6 3.5 –2.9 3.4 1.2 –4.4 6.2 7.1 8.5 –9.3 6.5 –9.6 4.7 State and local ............................................................. .5 .5 2.1 –.8 2.1 –.6 .5 2.1 –.9 .1 .6 1.5 –.1 1.0 2.7 4.0 1.9 2.7 3.3 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ................................... 3.5 3.5 3.1 4.5 6.9 2.1 3.4 2.6 4.0 2.6 3.3 5.6 4.4 –.3 5.6 2.1 1.9 3.7 1.6 Gross domestic purchases .......................................... 4.4 3.3 3.2 4.0 6.6 3.0 4.4 5.5 3.1 3.3 3.4 2.4 4.0 2.7 5.3 2.0 2.0 .8 1.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers ............................. 4.0 3.6 2.9 5.1 6.1 2.5 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.3 4.6 4.2 .7 5.4 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 Gross national product (GNP) ..................................... 3.8 3.1 3.3 4.1 7.3 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.3 2.0 3.6 3.0 4.9 .5 6.1 2.3 1.8 3.5 .......... Disposable personal income ........................................ 3.6 1.2 2.6 5.0 6.3 1.7 3.9 2.4 2.8 7.5 –4.0 .5 –.6 5.5 4.6 –1.5 3.2 5.3 4.5 Current-dollar measures: GDP .......................................................................... 6.9 6.3 6.3 4.8 9.7 4.9 7.8 7.9 5.3 5.9 7.0 5.8 7.6 5.1 9.0 5.9 3.8 4.1 5.3 Final sales of domestic product .............................. 6.5 6.7 6.1 5.8 9.1 4.4 7.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.9 8.2 7.8 3.0 9.1 5.5 3.8 5.4 5.6 Gross domestic purchases ...................................... 7.6 6.9 6.4 4.7 9.1 4.9 8.9 9.7 5.8 7.0 6.7 5.8 8.5 6.3 8.2 6.1 4.2 1.0 5.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers ........................ 7.2 7.2 6.1 5.7 8.5 4.4 8.5 8.3 6.7 7.0 6.7 8.1 8.8 4.3 8.2 5.7 4.2 2.1 5.6 GNP .......................................................................... 6.7 6.2 6.3 5.4 9.6 5.8 7.4 6.7 5.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 8.4 3.8 9.6 5.7 3.7 5.2 .......... Disposable personal income ................................... 6.4 4.1 5.4 5.7 8.9 3.2 7.7 6.0 4.7 10.7 –1.8 3.6 3.5 8.6 6.8 2.5 5.7 4.3 8.0 See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. Table 2.—Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2003 II Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product ....................................... Percentage points at annual rates: Personal consumption expenditures ....................... Durable goods ........................................................ Motor vehicles and parts ..................................... Furniture and household equipment ................... Other .................................................................... Nondurable goods ................................................. Food ..................................................................... Clothing and shoes ............................................. Gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods ........ Other .................................................................... Services ................................................................... Housing ................................................................ Household operation ............................................ Electricity and gas ........................................... Other household operation ............................. Transportation ...................................................... Medical care ........................................................ Recreation ............................................................ Other .................................................................... Gross private domestic investment ......................... Fixed investment .................................................... Nonresidential ...................................................... Structures ........................................................ Equipment and software ................................. Information processing equipment and software .................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment ... Software .................................................. Other ....................................................... Industrial equipment .................................... Transportation equipment ........................... Other equipment ......................................... Residential ........................................................... Change in private inventories .............................. Farm ..................................................................... Nonfarm ............................................................... Net exports of goods and services ......................... Exports .................................................................... Goods ................................................................... Services ............................................................... Imports .................................................................... Goods ................................................................... Services ............................................................... Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................................... Federal ..................................................................... National defense .................................................. Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................ Nondefense .......................................................... Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................ State and local ....................................................... Consumption expenditures .............................. Gross investment ............................................ Addenda: Goods ....................................................................... Services .................................................................... Structures ................................................................. Motor vehicle output ................................................ Final sales of computers ......................................... See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. III 2004 IV I II 2005 III IV I II 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 7.5 2.7 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 2.71 .54 .07 .35 .11 .73 .33 .14 .02 .24 1.45 .40 .10 .02 .08 .03 .37 .14 .41 1.49 1.11 .58 .06 .52 2.44 .45 .02 .29 .14 .90 .51 .17 –.01 .23 1.09 .30 .08 .04 .04 0 .43 .08 .20 .87 1.17 .67 .03 .64 2.24 .41 –.04 .36 .09 .76 .41 .14 –.02 .23 1.07 .24 –.02 –.05 .03 .04 .42 .06 .33 .70 .47 .73 .26 .47 2.53 1.35 .65 .49 .21 .45 .04 .29 –.02 .14 .73 .18 0 –.08 .08 –.03 .28 .15 .16 .51 1.52 1.01 .35 .66 4.13 1.39 .46 .67 .26 1.53 .61 .31 .10 .52 1.21 .35 .02 –.03 .05 .03 .28 .13 .40 2.56 2.00 .92 –.02 .95 1.59 .06 –.29 .27 .08 .36 .02 –.02 .06 .30 1.18 .40 .17 .12 .05 .02 .28 .16 .15 1.39 .83 .29 –.12 .41 3.30 .51 .09 .33 .10 .86 .54 .32 0 0 1.92 .49 .11 .06 .05 .05 .33 .18 .76 .74 .34 .18 .08 .10 2.07 .14 –.14 .28 .01 .34 .16 –.14 0 .32 1.59 .42 .10 –.06 .16 .06 .47 .13 .42 3.17 1.72 .69 .17 .52 2.74 .71 .22 .36 .13 .74 .28 .18 –.04 .32 1.30 .37 .06 –.07 .13 0 .53 .09 .24 .32 1.16 .97 .08 .90 2.97 .50 .17 .21 .12 1.07 .70 .19 .01 .16 1.39 .32 .25 .25 0 .04 .43 .05 .30 .82 .77 .81 –.05 .86 1.94 .20 –.29 .27 .21 1.04 .53 .17 .12 .21 .70 .29 .01 0 .01 .02 .32 .13 –.07 1.32 1.22 .59 .14 .45 2.94 1.02 .50 .28 .24 .98 .55 .25 –.10 .28 .94 .28 .04 0 .04 –.03 .40 .05 .20 –.61 1.62 .51 –.06 .56 .36 .10 .15 .11 –.05 .14 .07 .53 .38 .07 .31 –.65 .88 .60 .28 –1.53 –1.29 –.24 .30 .12 .09 .10 .10 .15 .09 .50 –.30 –.06 –.24 –.26 .68 .52 .16 –.94 –.87 –.07 .31 .13 .10 0 .10 .05 .11 .08 .07 .14 0 .31 .08 .08 –.27 .51 .23 –1.01 .03 –.16 .21 –.85 –.02 –.73 .93 –.16 .76 –.08 .17 –.08 –.95 –.57 –.82 –.97 –.14 .40 .36 .30 .27 .22 .05 .03 .03 0 .06 .10 –.04 .17 .11 .08 .05 .03 .03 0 .02 .06 .08 –.02 .40 .14 .09 .05 .04 .05 .04 .01 .26 .18 .08 1.56 1.84 .51 .12 .06 1.43 1.31 .49 .20 .16 1.90 1.37 .05 –.06 .11 2006 III I II 1.8 5.6 2.6 2.76 .53 .74 –1.08 .38 –1.51 .40 .33 –.03 .10 .70 .79 .61 .39 .08 .27 –.15 –.06 .16 .19 1.32 .83 .24 .18 .09 .01 .03 .03 .06 –.02 –.04 0 .53 .44 .05 .04 .44 .16 .84 2.51 1.02 .46 .59 .52 –.20 .31 .78 .21 3.38 1.50 .60 .65 .26 1.20 .64 .23 –.03 .36 .67 .24 –.58 –.58 0 .10 .52 .09 .31 1.31 1.34 1.36 .25 1.11 1.81 –.01 –.04 .10 –.06 .30 .19 –.10 .02 .19 1.52 .25 .31 .23 .08 .04 .31 .02 .58 .17 –.27 .45 .56 –.10 4.2 IV 2007 III 2.0 IV 2.5 I 1.3 1.96 2.93 2.66 .50 .35 .56 .28 –.15 .36 .20 .38 .22 .03 .12 –.01 .32 1.18 .58 –.07 .62 .08 .15 .18 .18 .14 .03 .21 .11 .35 .12 1.14 1.41 1.51 .27 .33 .22 .35 .13 .22 .32 .08 .16 .04 .05 .06 .03 .10 .06 .25 .42 .55 .08 .09 –.01 .15 .33 .47 –.13 –2.71 –1.06 –.19 –1.54 –.76 1.01 –.34 .21 .46 .03 .07 .55 –.36 .14 .82 .70 .30 .05 .26 .21 –.03 –.03 .32 .20 .17 .03 .23 .29 .16 .05 –.14 –.22 –.09 –.05 .01 –.13 –.08 .46 .26 .07 –.04 .06 1.08 .55 .16 1.03 .56 .56 .40 1.44 –.06 –.05 .27 .61 .62 .60 .13 .84 .51 –.47 –.73 –1.62 1.02 1.81 .69 .60 .55 1.20 .47 .43 .47 .61 .22 .17 –.51 –2.29 –1.42 –2.22 –.07 –1.86 –1.17 –2.03 –.44 –.43 –.25 –.18 .21 .33 .21 .17 .12 .16 –.12 0 .19 .05 .39 .40 .10 .08 .18 –.04 –.84 .05 –.48 –.38 –.35 .43 –.20 –.81 .46 .96 .55 .42 –.09 .54 –.66 –1.77 –.59 –1.55 –.08 –.22 .43 .29 .10 .10 .03 .12 .30 .06 .16 –.07 –.14 .11 .01 .24 .63 1.11 .09 –2.23 .16 –.26 –.06 –1.97 –.16 .72 .47 .94 .38 .88 .09 .06 –.63 –.22 –.64 –.26 .01 .04 .26 .25 .74 .06 .16 .15 .07 .04 .18 .13 .04 .40 .23 .19 –.05 .27 –.31 .31 .03 .08 .11 .43 –.06 –.02 –.18 2.05 –.03 .28 .14 –.01 –.46 1.90 –.02 –.06 –1.07 –.04 .33 .97 1.41 .27 .80 1.20 .06 .17 .21 –.39 –2.04 –1.46 –.36 –1.84 –1.27 –.03 –.20 –.19 –.04 .35 –.07 .03 .13 0 .07 .09 .05 –.14 .13 –.11 .16 0 –.07 –.32 .15 –.22 .09 .05 –.01 –.72 –1.20 –1.21 .44 .06 –1.16 –.09 .02 –.01 .54 .05 –1.15 .42 –.19 1.59 .66 .73 1.14 .45 .71 .65 .21 .03 .50 –.24 –.93 .45 .01 –1.00 .61 –.25 .07 –.16 .54 .28 .10 .16 .02 –.17 –.26 –.97 –.30 .02 –.32 –.52 –.14 –.06 –.08 –.37 –.26 –.12 1.16 1.26 1.41 1.30 .12 –.16 –.21 .06 –.10 –.07 –.02 .29 .03 –.25 –.32 .07 .28 .27 .01 .26 –.04 .30 .14 .21 .35 .31 .05 –.14 –.12 –.03 –.07 .07 –.15 .55 .49 .41 .40 0 .09 .11 –.03 .06 .19 –.13 .43 .18 .09 0 .10 .08 .03 .05 .25 .15 .11 .24 .34 .41 .34 .08 –.07 –.06 –.01 –.10 .08 –.18 –.37 –.38 –.45 –.44 –.01 .08 .05 .03 .01 .15 –.14 .31 .23 .21 .25 –.04 .03 .01 .01 .08 .02 .06 .21 .03 .13 .03 .10 –.11 –.09 –.02 .18 .05 .13 .64 .66 .52 .45 .07 .14 .08 .06 –.01 .14 –.15 –.21 –.33 –.49 –.47 –.02 .16 .05 .11 .13 .09 .03 .94 .61 .41 .37 .05 .20 .16 .03 .33 .17 .16 .16 –.32 –.09 –.17 .08 –.23 –.10 –.12 .48 .20 .28 .32 .09 –.06 –.04 –.02 .15 .13 .02 .23 .30 –.08 .64 .31 .55 .43 .11 –.23 –.19 –.04 .33 .33 0 .18 –.21 –.32 –.26 –.05 .10 .11 –.01 .39 .25 .14 .56 2.06 .85 .36 –.02 5.00 1.15 1.33 .30 .50 .81 1.63 .22 –.23 .15 1.20 2.59 .05 .33 –.13 .99 1.74 1.31 –.24 –.14 1.56 1.48 .06 .52 .15 1.43 1.47 –.29 .06 .26 1.51 1.07 .82 .38 .16 1.09 1.04 1.13 –.03 .20 2.07 2.02 .09 .70 .08 .97 .46 .33 –.71 .20 3.86 1.39 .33 .12 .07 1.12 1.40 .04 –.31 .04 1.17 1.25 1.63 2.32 –.84 –1.11 .76 –1.18 .07 .22 .66 1.42 –.82 .09 .04 Table 3.—Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (2000) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2006 Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2006 2007 2006 Change from preceding period 2006 2007 2006 2007 IV I 2006 I II III IV I I II III IV I Gross domestic product .......................... 13,246.6 13,008.4 13,197.3 13,322.6 13,458.2 13,632.6 11,415.3 11,316.4 11,388.1 11,443.5 11,513.0 11,549.1 366.7 69.5 36.1 Personal consumption expenditures ................... 9,268.9 9,079.2 9,228.1 9,346.7 9,421.8 9,589.8 8,091.4 8,003.8 8,055.0 8,111.2 8,195.9 8,273.6 250.2 84.7 77.7 Durable goods .................................................... Motor vehicles and parts ................................. Furniture and household equipment ............... Other ................................................................ 1,070.3 444.7 404.6 221.0 1,064.1 442.7 402.3 219.1 1,061.8 441.7 401.3 218.8 1,075.5 451.3 403.2 221.0 1,079.8 443.3 411.4 225.2 1,093.8 453.4 414.5 225.8 1,202.9 447.4 550.5 224.5 1,190.5 445.1 538.5 224.6 1,190.3 443.7 542.9 222.5 1,208.8 452.9 551.7 223.4 1,221.9 447.8 569.1 227.5 1,243.5 460.1 579.2 227.1 57.6 –5.5 59.9 11.9 13.1 –5.1 17.4 4.1 21.6 12.3 10.1 –.4 Nondurable goods ............................................. Food ................................................................. Clothing and shoes ......................................... Gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods .... Other ................................................................ 2,714.9 1,281.1 358.6 338.3 736.8 2,658.2 1,262.3 355.4 316.2 724.2 2,721.4 1,274.0 355.1 359.1 733.3 2,747.7 1,280.7 358.7 369.4 738.9 2,732.1 1,307.5 365.3 308.5 750.8 2,785.9 1,325.7 372.0 328.5 759.7 2,362.0 1,110.9 392.5 197.6 671.1 2,342.8 1,103.4 391.1 196.0 662.6 2,351.1 1,108.8 387.4 196.3 668.3 2,360.1 1,106.8 392.6 198.7 671.5 2,394.0 1,124.5 399.1 199.3 682.2 2,411.2 1,126.8 405.7 203.7 685.7 85.2 45.2 19.8 –1.9 27.2 33.9 17.7 6.5 .6 10.7 17.2 2.3 6.6 4.4 3.5 Services ............................................................... Housing ............................................................ Household operation ........................................ Electricity and gas ....................................... Other household operation ......................... Transportation .................................................. Medical care .................................................... Recreation ........................................................ Other ................................................................ 5,483.7 1,382.2 506.4 212.2 294.1 337.1 1,588.5 379.4 1,290.2 5,356.8 1,345.4 494.8 206.2 288.6 330.4 1,557.2 372.4 1,256.5 5,444.9 1,370.1 499.1 206.9 292.2 335.9 1,578.2 377.2 1,284.3 5,523.5 1,394.2 512.3 216.6 295.7 339.5 1,597.5 382.7 1,297.3 5,609.8 1,419.2 519.2 219.2 300.0 342.7 1,621.0 385.1 1,322.6 5,710.1 1,439.2 536.1 232.0 304.2 346.1 1,658.1 386.0 1,344.6 4,550.4 1,148.7 416.2 149.9 267.4 288.4 1,305.0 319.7 1,071.1 4,494.5 1,137.6 404.3 141.7 264.8 286.3 1,292.6 317.5 1,054.9 4,535.4 1,144.5 412.5 147.0 267.0 287.5 1,300.9 318.1 1,070.6 4,566.6 1,151.7 422.1 154.4 268.1 288.5 1,307.6 320.4 1,074.8 4,605.2 1,160.8 425.8 156.4 269.6 291.2 1,319.0 323.0 1,083.9 4,646.8 1,166.9 431.9 160.2 271.5 293.0 1,334.0 322.6 1,096.8 113.8 26.1 –1.8 –3.9 3.3 4.0 44.1 6.6 34.9 38.6 9.1 3.7 2.0 1.5 2.7 11.4 2.6 9.1 41.6 6.1 6.1 3.8 1.9 1.8 15.0 –.4 12.9 Gross private domestic investment ..................... 2,212.5 2,214.8 2,237.1 2,235.5 2,162.6 2,136.7 1,945.6 1,963.6 1,968.5 1,964.8 1,885.6 1,854.4 79.3 –79.2 –31.2 Fixed investment ................................................ Nonresidential .................................................. Structures .................................................... Equipment and software ............................. Information processing equipment and software .............................................. Computers and peripheral equipment Software .............................................. Other ................................................... Industrial equipment ................................ Transportation equipment ....................... Other equipment ..................................... Residential ....................................................... 2,162.9 1,396.2 411.2 985.0 2,167.7 1,359.2 378.2 981.0 2,174.8 1,384.3 406.3 977.9 2,171.4 1,420.8 426.9 994.0 2,137.6 1,420.5 433.5 987.0 2,121.0 1,433.8 436.1 997.7 1,894.7 1,312.4 274.0 1,048.6 1,914.6 1,288.8 259.6 1,044.8 1,906.8 1,302.8 271.9 1,041.2 1,901.3 1,334.2 282.0 1,060.7 1,856.3 1,323.7 282.6 1,047.8 1,833.9 1,330.2 284.1 1,052.7 52.7 88.6 22.5 63.7 –45.0 –10.5 .6 –12.9 –22.4 6.5 1.5 4.9 484.3 86.5 208.3 189.4 169.0 158.5 173.2 766.7 482.4 88.0 203.6 190.8 163.4 165.7 169.4 808.5 479.9 85.9 207.0 187.1 170.1 155.9 172.1 790.6 489.6 87.2 210.8 191.7 172.0 157.5 174.9 750.5 485.2 85.1 212.0 188.1 170.6 154.8 176.5 717.1 Change in private inventories .......................... Farm ................................................................. Nonfarm ........................................................... 49.6 3.1 46.5 47.2 5.4 41.8 62.3 2.3 59.9 64.2 2.5 61.6 24.9 2.2 22.7 502.5 601.2 595.9 594.3 608.6 605.9 628.6 48.6 –2.7 22.7 92.6 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 216.2 219.3 215.6 217.8 221.0 222.6 226.0 13.1 1.6 3.4 193.6 209.2 211.6 206.7 211.3 207.1 213.1 15.6 –4.2 6.0 172.9 152.2 149.0 153.9 153.9 151.9 152.5 8.7 –2.0 .6 153.8 145.7 152.2 142.7 147.3 140.5 135.4 .3 –6.8 –5.1 168.5 157.1 154.3 157.1 158.6 158.3 150.6 9.8 –.3 –7.7 687.2 582.2 618.5 600.5 570.3 539.7 515.1 –25.8 –30.6 –24.6 15.7 2.7 13.0 43.2 2.8 40.6 41.2 4.3 36.8 53.7 1.9 52.2 55.4 2.5 53.3 22.4 2.4 20.0 14.8 3.0 11.3 23.6 2.6 21.0 –33.0 –.1 –33.3 –7.6 .6 –8.7 Net exports of goods and services ..................... –762.5 –765.2 –781.8 –801.7 –701.2 –712.2 –618.0 –636.6 –624.2 –628.8 –582.6 –597.8 1.2 46.2 –15.2 Exports ................................................................ Goods ............................................................... Services ........................................................... 1,466.2 1,035.4 430.8 1,405.4 989.3 416.0 1,448.1 1,019.1 429.0 1,488.3 1,055.8 432.5 1,523.0 1,077.4 445.6 1,531.7 1,085.5 446.3 1,302.8 931.4 372.0 1,269.3 906.2 363.6 1,288.5 919.5 369.5 1,310.0 940.4 370.3 1,343.5 959.5 384.5 1,339.3 957.6 382.3 106.7 88.2 19.1 33.5 19.1 14.2 –4.2 –1.9 –2.2 Imports ................................................................ Goods ............................................................... Services ........................................................... 2,228.7 1,879.5 349.2 2,170.6 1,832.6 338.1 2,229.8 1,879.0 350.8 2,290.1 1,938.8 351.3 2,224.2 1,867.5 356.6 2,243.9 1,881.8 362.1 1,920.9 1,641.5 281.6 1,905.9 1,631.9 276.6 1,912.7 1,631.7 283.2 1,938.8 1,660.1 281.3 1,926.1 1,642.6 285.5 1,937.0 1,650.3 288.7 105.6 91.6 14.1 –12.7 –17.5 4.2 10.9 7.7 3.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ............................................... 2,527.7 2,479.6 2,513.9 2,542.1 2,575.1 2,618.3 1,998.4 1,987.1 1,991.2 1,999.4 2,016.1 2,020.8 40.4 16.7 4.7 Federal ................................................................. National defense .............................................. Consumption expenditures .......................... Gross investment ........................................ Nondefense ...................................................... Consumption expenditures .......................... Gross investment ........................................ 926.6 621.0 542.0 79.0 305.6 266.1 39.5 921.7 613.5 537.7 75.8 308.2 265.9 42.4 919.7 616.5 537.7 78.8 303.2 264.6 38.6 927.2 618.1 539.3 78.8 309.0 269.8 39.3 937.7 635.8 553.0 82.7 301.9 264.0 37.9 945.8 634.8 553.7 81.1 311.0 273.2 37.8 741.9 492.8 418.1 76.4 248.9 211.2 38.2 745.1 491.8 419.0 74.0 253.1 212.8 41.1 736.6 489.3 414.7 76.5 247.0 210.1 37.2 738.9 487.8 413.7 75.9 250.9 213.4 37.8 747.2 502.2 424.8 79.4 244.7 208.5 36.4 741.5 493.7 418.0 77.6 247.5 211.4 36.2 14.4 9.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 3.9 1.5 8.3 14.4 11.1 3.5 –6.2 –4.9 –1.4 –5.7 –8.5 –6.8 –1.8 2.8 2.9 –.2 State and local ................................................... Consumption expenditures .......................... Gross investment ........................................ 1,601.1 1,288.3 312.8 1,557.9 1,256.2 301.7 1,594.2 1,280.7 313.5 1,614.9 1,300.0 315.0 1,637.4 1,316.5 320.9 1,672.6 1,341.6 330.9 1,256.4 1,006.0 250.2 1,242.0 996.1 245.7 1,254.4 1,001.2 253.1 1,260.3 1,009.0 251.1 1,268.7 1,017.5 251.0 1,278.9 1,024.2 254.6 26.0 18.0 8.1 8.4 8.5 –.1 10.2 6.7 3.6 Residual .................................................................... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. –85.8 –78.7 –77.6 –88.3 –97.4 –118.9 .............. .............. .............. Addenda: Final sales of domestic product .......................... 13,197.0 12,961.2 13,135.1 13,258.4 13,433.3 13,616.9 11,365.8 11,269.0 11,328.0 11,381.6 11,484.5 11,529.2 Gross domestic purchases .................................. 14,009.1 13,773.6 13,979.1 14,124.3 14,159.4 14,344.8 12,027.3 11,946.3 12,005.9 12,066.6 12,090.6 12,141.5 Final sales to domestic purchasers .................... 13,959.5 13,726.4 13,916.8 14,060.1 14,134.5 14,329.1 11,977.8 11,898.7 11,945.9 12,004.7 12,062.0 12,121.4 Gross domestic product ................................... 13,246.6 13,008.4 13,197.3 13,322.6 13,458.2 13,632.6 11,415.3 11,316.4 11,388.1 11,443.5 11,513.0 Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world 665.6 603.3 661.4 682.3 715.5 .............. 574.8 526.4 571.4 586.5 614.7 Less: Income payments to the rest of the world 635.7 574.3 638.6 665.7 664.4 .............. 547.7 499.7 550.3 570.9 569.7 Equals: Gross national product ....................... 13,276.5 13,037.4 13,220.1 13,339.2 13,509.3 .............. 11,441.7 11,342.7 11,408.5 11,458.5 11,557.3 Net domestic product ........................................... 11,669.8 11,460.3 11,624.6 11,740.6 11,853.6 12,020.9 NOTE.—Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component’s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. 9,983.1 9,896.5 340.6 367.6 341.7 102.9 24.0 57.3 44.7 50.9 59.4 11,549.1 .............. .............. .............. 366.7 117.9 120.5 363.8 69.5 36.1 28.2 .............. –1.2 .............. 98.8 .............. 9,959.8 10,007.3 10,068.9 10,097.9 425.9 61.6 29.0 Table 4.—Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2003 II III 2004 IV I II 2005 III IV I II 2006 III IV I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product (GDP) ................... 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.7 3.7 2.1 3.2 3.5 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.9 1.7 4.0 Personal consumption expenditures ........................... Durable goods .............................................................. Nondurable goods ........................................................ Services ........................................................................ 2.6 –1.6 3.3 3.2 2.9 –.7 3.6 3.2 2.7 –1.3 3.1 3.4 .7 –4.2 –2.9 3.5 2.4 –4.0 3.9 3.0 1.5 –3.5 .5 3.0 3.7 0 5.7 3.5 3.6 .3 6.0 3.2 1.9 –2.3 1.1 3.1 3.0 .3 4.4 3.0 2.3 .3 1.1 3.2 3.1 –.6 4.8 3.1 4.1 –2.9 9.0 3.2 2.9 –1.3 .6 5.0 2.0 –1.0 1.1 3.1 4.0 –.8 8.3 2.9 2.4 –1.1 2.3 3.0 –1.0 –2.7 –7.7 2.9 3.4 –1.8 5.1 3.5 Gross private domestic investment ............................. 3.3 3.4 3.2 –.7 1.3 3.5 4.2 4.5 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.1 .6 3.4 1.8 Fixed investment .......................................................... 3.4 3.5 3.3 –.8 1.3 3.5 4.3 4.6 3.6 3.7 3.1 2.7 4.0 4.6 3.8 3.0 .5 3.4 1.7 Nonresidential ........................................................... 1.2 2.6 2.9 –1.3 .7 1.4 1.0 2.1 1.4 2.6 3.6 2.0 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.0 .9 3.1 1.8 Structures ............................................................. 6.2 11.3 11.4 –.2 2.3 4.2 6.7 7.8 10.2 12.0 11.6 9.2 13.2 16.8 12.4 10.7 5.3 5.5 .3 Equipment and software ..................................... –.4 –.4 –.2 –1.7 .1 .4 –.9 .2 –1.5 –.5 .9 –.4 –1.5 –1.0 .6 .1 –.9 2.1 2.5 Residential ................................................................ 7.3 5.1 4.0 .2 2.6 7.7 10.5 9.0 7.4 5.6 2.3 3.8 6.9 6.3 3.8 2.9 –.1 3.9 1.6 Change in private inventories ...................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services ............................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports .......................................................................... 3.7 3.6 3.3 1.1 .9 3.0 6.1 5.0 1.8 4.0 4.6 3.6 2.6 2.8 2.3 6.1 4.5 –.9 3.6 Goods ....................................................................... 3.7 3.1 3.3 1.6 –.7 4.1 6.5 5.2 1.1 3.6 4.4 3.0 1.3 2.3 2.8 6.2 5.3 0 3.9 Services .................................................................... 3.5 4.8 3.3 –.2 4.7 .7 5.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.6 4.2 1.2 6.0 2.5 –3.1 3.0 Imports .......................................................................... 5.0 6.3 4.3 –3.9 2.6 .4 9.7 7.3 5.5 6.7 2.6 9.2 10.2 4.3 –.7 9.8 5.4 –8.6 1.3 Goods ....................................................................... 5.0 6.5 4.5 –6.7 2.5 .5 10.1 7.9 5.4 6.8 1.8 10.1 11.3 5.1 –1.6 10.6 5.8 –10.2 1.2 Services .................................................................... 5.1 5.4 3.4 11.8 3.1 0 8.0 4.4 6.2 6.3 6.8 5.1 4.3 –.1 4.5 5.5 3.2 .1 1.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................................................... Federal .......................................................................... National defense ...................................................... Nondefense .............................................................. State and local ............................................................. 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.3 5.6 4.8 5.1 4.1 6.2 4.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.5 1.0 1.2 .6 3.3 2.2 1.1 1.3 .6 2.9 6.8 11.5 10.5 13.7 4.1 5.3 5.3 5.8 4.3 5.3 4.6 2.2 2.8 .9 6.1 5.7 2.9 3.2 2.3 7.4 7.0 11.3 11.6 10.6 4.6 4.6 2.2 2.4 1.8 6.1 5.9 3.3 3.4 3.2 7.4 4.7 .4 1.0 –.7 7.3 4.4 7.6 6.7 9.5 2.6 4.8 3.8 4.1 3.2 5.4 2.8 2.0 2.3 1.4 3.4 1.8 0 –.3 .8 2.9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ................................... Gross domestic purchases .......................................... Final sales to domestic purchasers ............................. Gross national product (GNP) ..................................... 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.3 .6 .6 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.1 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.5 2.4 3.3 3.3 2.4 3.3 4.4 4.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 4.0 .2 3.6 .2 3.6 1.7 .......... Implicit price deflators: GDP .......................................................................... Gross domestic purchases ...................................... GNP .......................................................................... 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.3 .6 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 3.8 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.1 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.0 3.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 4.0 .2 3.6 1.6 .......... See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. 5.9 6.7 6.4 7.4 5.5 Table 5.—Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes [Index numbers, 2000=100] Seasonally adjusted 2004 2005 2006 2006 I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product ............................................................................................ 109.031 112.546 116.281 115.274 116.004 116.569 117.277 117.644 Personal consumption expenditures ......................................................................................... Durable goods ............................................................................................................................ Nondurable goods ...................................................................................................................... Services ...................................................................................................................................... 112.430 125.753 111.913 110.055 116.349 132.666 116.924 112.925 120.062 139.329 121.301 115.822 118.761 137.893 120.313 114.398 119.521 137.868 120.742 115.440 120.355 140.019 121.204 116.234 121.612 141.534 122.947 117.215 122.765 144.037 123.829 118.275 Gross private domestic investment ........................................................................................... 102.026 107.537 112.109 113.143 113.429 113.215 108.649 106.851 Fixed investment ........................................................................................................................ 102.080 109.708 112.851 114.033 113.570 113.240 110.561 109.230 Nonresidential ........................................................................................................................ 92.995 99.326 106.519 104.606 105.738 108.292 107.440 107.965 Structures ........................................................................................................................... 79.418 80.302 87.496 82.893 86.819 90.044 90.228 90.717 Equipment and software ................................................................................................... 98.400 107.180 114.121 113.704 113.313 115.434 114.032 114.562 Residential .............................................................................................................................. 125.281 136.050 130.283 138.391 134.368 127.601 120.770 115.269 Change in private inventories .................................................................................................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... Exports of goods and services .................................................................................................. 102.201 109.105 118.841 115.783 117.536 119.495 122.549 122.166 Imports of goods and services .................................................................................................. 115.962 123.007 130.162 129.146 129.608 131.378 130.516 131.257 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ........................................... Federal ....................................................................................................................................... State and local ........................................................................................................................... 112.720 123.813 107.094 113.731 125.701 107.660 116.081 128.191 109.934 115.423 128.728 108.682 115.657 127.262 109.762 116.136 127.669 110.277 117.107 129.106 111.016 117.378 128.115 111.910 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ................................................................................................ Gross domestic purchases ........................................................................................................ Final sales to domestic purchasers .......................................................................................... Gross national product ............................................................................................................... 109.096 110.691 110.761 109.039 112.958 114.351 114.755 112.399 116.447 117.956 118.125 116.090 115.455 117.161 117.345 115.085 116.060 117.746 117.810 115.753 116.609 118.341 118.390 116.260 117.663 118.121 118.577 119.076 118.955 119.541 117.263 .................... See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. Table 6.—Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2000=100] Seasonally adjusted 2004 2005 2006 2006 I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product ............................................................................................ 109.429 112.744 116.062 114.967 115.905 116.446 116.930 118.073 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) .............................................................................. Durable goods ............................................................................................................................ Nondurable goods ...................................................................................................................... Services ...................................................................................................................................... 108.373 90.845 107.617 112.863 111.493 90.198 111.530 116.529 114.556 88.981 114.959 120.509 113.445 89.385 113.484 119.194 114.573 89.206 115.769 120.059 115.241 88.967 116.442 120.960 114.966 88.366 114.141 121.824 115.917 87.956 115.557 122.890 Gross private domestic investment ........................................................................................... 106.645 110.284 113.834 112.860 113.717 113.895 114.864 115.389 Fixed investment ........................................................................................................................ 106.811 110.542 114.178 113.238 114.074 114.224 115.175 115.671 Nonresidential ........................................................................................................................ 100.834 103.428 106.390 105.471 106.266 106.501 107.321 107.799 Structures ........................................................................................................................... 120.951 134.647 149.972 145.684 149.432 151.372 153.402 153.499 Equipment and software ................................................................................................... 94.503 94.134 93.926 93.887 93.920 93.704 94.194 94.772 Residential .............................................................................................................................. 120.618 126.714 131.757 130.765 131.696 131.655 132.911 133.443 Change in private inventories .................................................................................................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... Exports of goods and services .................................................................................................. 105.151 108.949 112.537 110.737 112.400 113.631 113.379 114.387 Imports of goods and services .................................................................................................. 104.678 111.268 116.043 113.918 116.608 118.143 115.503 115.868 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ........................................... Federal ....................................................................................................................................... State and local ........................................................................................................................... 114.718 115.249 114.417 121.183 120.726 121.463 126.484 124.892 127.434 124.791 123.721 125.434 126.262 124.871 127.095 127.150 125.482 128.147 127.731 125.495 129.061 129.578 127.553 130.785 Addenda: PCE excluding food and energy ............................................................................................... Market-based PCE 1 .................................................................................................................. Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 1 ..................................................................... 107.314 107.393 105.865 109.559 110.339 107.713 111.974 113.171 109.706 110.983 112.116 108.810 111.738 113.272 109.524 112.337 113.879 110.033 112.838 113.417 110.457 113.466 114.402 111.063 Final sales of domestic product ................................................................................................ Gross domestic purchases ........................................................................................................ Final sales to domestic purchasers .......................................................................................... Gross national product ............................................................................................................... 109.455 109.210 109.235 109.419 112.783 112.981 113.021 112.733 116.115 116.498 116.552 116.055 115.025 115.313 115.371 114.958 115.961 116.455 116.510 115.897 116.498 117.080 117.133 116.440 116.978 118.117 117.145 118.180 117.192 118.224 116.924 .................... Implicit price deflators: Gross domestic product ........................................................................................................ Final sales of domestic product ............................................................................................ Gross domestic purchases .................................................................................................... Final sales to domestic purchasers ...................................................................................... Gross national product .......................................................................................................... 109.426 109.455 109.207 109.235 109.416 112.737 112.783 112.975 113.021 112.726 116.043 116.112 116.477 116.544 116.036 114.951 115.017 115.296 115.360 114.942 115.887 115.952 116.435 116.499 115.879 116.420 116.490 117.053 117.122 116.414 116.895 118.041 116.969 118.109 117.110 118.147 117.182 118.213 116.889 .................... 1. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. Percentage changes for these series are included in the addenda to table 8 and in appendix table A. See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. Table 7.—Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Preceding Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Gross domestic product (GDP) ......................................................... –0.2 3.3 2.7 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.3 Personal consumption expenditures .................................................................. .2 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.7 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.1 4.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.9 3.5 3.2 Durable goods ..................................................................................................... –5.6 5.9 7.8 8.4 4.4 7.8 8.6 11.3 11.7 7.3 4.3 7.1 5.8 6.4 5.5 5.0 Nondurable goods ............................................................................................... –.2 2.0 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 4.0 4.6 3.8 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.5 3.7 Services ............................................................................................................... 1.7 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.5 2.4 1.9 1.9 3.5 2.6 2.6 Gross private domestic investment .................................................................... –8.1 8.1 8.9 13.6 3.1 8.9 12.4 9.8 7.8 5.7 –7.9 –2.6 3.6 9.8 5.4 4.3 Fixed investment ................................................................................................. –6.5 5.9 8.6 9.3 6.5 9.0 9.2 10.2 8.3 6.5 –3.0 –5.2 3.4 7.3 7.5 2.9 Nonresidential ................................................................................................. –5.4 3.2 8.7 9.2 10.5 9.3 12.1 11.1 9.2 8.7 –4.2 –9.2 1.0 5.9 6.8 7.2 Structures ................................................................................................... –11.1 –6.0 –.7 1.8 6.4 5.6 7.3 5.1 –.4 6.8 –2.3 –17.1 –4.1 2.2 1.1 9.0 Equipment and software ............................................................................ –2.6 7.3 12.5 11.9 12.0 10.6 13.8 13.3 12.7 9.4 –4.9 –6.2 2.8 7.3 8.9 6.5 Residential ...................................................................................................... –9.6 13.8 8.2 9.6 –3.2 8.0 1.9 7.6 6.0 .8 .4 4.8 8.4 9.9 8.6 –4.2 Change in private inventories ............................................................................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .................................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports ................................................................................................................ 6.6 6.9 3.2 8.7 10.1 8.4 11.9 2.4 4.3 8.7 –5.4 –2.3 1.3 9.2 6.8 8.9 Goods .............................................................................................................. 6.9 7.5 3.3 9.7 11.7 8.8 14.3 2.2 3.8 11.2 –6.1 –4.0 1.8 9.0 7.5 10.5 Services .......................................................................................................... 6.0 5.5 3.2 6.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 2.9 5.6 2.9 –3.7 1.9 0 9.7 5.1 5.4 Imports ................................................................................................................. –.6 7.0 8.8 11.9 8.0 8.7 13.6 11.6 11.5 13.1 –2.7 3.4 4.1 10.8 6.1 5.8 Goods .............................................................................................................. –.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.3 14.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 –3.2 3.7 4.9 10.9 6.7 5.9 Services .......................................................................................................... –2.6 –2.6 2.9 5.7 3.3 5.5 9.4 11.4 6.9 11.1 –.3 2.1 0 10.0 2.8 5.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .................... 1.1 .5 –.9 0 .5 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.1 3.4 4.4 2.5 1.9 .9 2.1 Federal ................................................................................................................ –.2 –1.7 –4.2 –3.7 –2.7 –1.2 –1.0 –1.1 2.2 .9 3.9 7.0 6.8 4.3 1.5 2.0 National defense ............................................................................................. –1.1 –5.0 –5.6 –4.9 –3.8 –1.4 –2.8 –2.1 1.9 –.5 3.9 7.4 8.7 5.9 1.7 1.9 Nondefense ..................................................................................................... 2.4 6.9 –.7 –1.2 –.4 –.7 2.6 .7 2.8 3.5 3.9 6.3 3.4 1.2 1.1 2.1 State and local .................................................................................................... 2.1 2.2 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.6 4.7 2.7 3.2 3.1 .2 .5 .5 2.1 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ......................................................................... .1 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.6 1.2 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 Gross domestic purchases ................................................................................. –.8 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.4 .9 2.2 2.8 4.4 3.3 3.2 Final sales to domestic purchasers ................................................................... –.6 3.1 3.2 3.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.4 4.5 1.8 1.8 2.8 4.0 3.6 2.9 Gross national product ........................................................................................ –.3 3.3 2.7 3.9 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 3.7 .8 1.5 2.7 3.8 3.1 3.3 Real disposable personal income ...................................................................... .5 3.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.8 3.0 4.8 1.9 3.1 2.2 3.6 1.2 2.6 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................................. 3.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 .6 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.1 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy ................................ 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 GDP ................................................................................................................ 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 GDP excluding food and energy ................................................................... 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.7 3.0 2.9 Personal consumption expenditures .............................................................. 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 .9 1.7 2.5 2.1 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.7 Table 8.—Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago 2003 II III 2004 IV I II 2005 III IV I II 2006 III IV I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product (GDP) ......................................................... 1.8 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.1 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ....................................................... 2.3 3.2 3.4 4.1 3.9 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 Durable goods ..................................................................................................... 5.5 6.7 8.3 9.8 6.1 4.2 5.6 4.7 7.4 7.5 2.5 6.6 3.4 2.8 7.4 4.5 Nondurable goods ............................................................................................... 2.5 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.7 2.9 Services ............................................................................................................... 1.6 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.4 Gross private domestic investment .................................................................... 1.6 4.4 7.0 8.6 13.2 9.2 8.2 9.0 2.8 3.6 6.3 6.2 7.4 5.9 –2.1 –5.6 Fixed investment ................................................................................................. 1.9 5.4 7.2 7.9 8.2 6.7 6.6 8.0 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.9 3.9 2.0 –1.1 –4.2 Nonresidential ................................................................................................. .1 2.9 4.9 6.1 5.2 5.5 6.9 8.0 7.4 6.3 5.6 7.4 7.2 8.3 6.1 3.2 Structures ................................................................................................... –3.9 .1 .2 2.9 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.2 1.0 –1.6 1.8 2.6 8.0 14.1 11.2 9.4 Equipment and software ............................................................................ 1.5 3.9 6.6 7.2 6.7 6.7 8.3 9.7 9.8 9.3 7.0 9.2 6.8 6.0 4.0 .8 Residential ...................................................................................................... 5.7 10.6 11.7 11.4 13.7 9.0 6.1 8.1 8.1 9.1 9.0 6.1 –1.5 –8.1 –12.8 –16.7 Change in private inventories ............................................................................. .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Net exports of goods and services .................................................................... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... Exports ................................................................................................................ –1.9 .1 5.8 9.1 11.2 9.6 7.0 6.4 7.2 6.8 6.7 9.0 8.2 9.1 9.4 5.5 Goods .............................................................................................................. –1.6 –.1 7.1 8.4 10.4 10.3 7.0 6.6 8.1 7.0 8.3 11.2 9.5 11.0 10.2 5.7 Services .......................................................................................................... –2.4 .5 3.0 10.9 13.2 7.9 7.1 5.9 5.0 6.3 3.1 4.0 5.2 4.9 7.5 5.1 Imports ................................................................................................................. 3.3 2.8 4.8 8.8 11.7 11.9 10.6 9.0 5.4 4.9 5.2 6.4 6.4 7.2 3.3 1.6 Goods .............................................................................................................. 4.7 3.2 5.3 9.0 11.2 12.3 11.2 9.8 6.0 5.5 5.8 6.9 6.4 7.5 2.9 1.1 Services .......................................................................................................... –3.3 1.0 2.2 7.9 14.7 10.1 7.6 4.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 3.7 6.6 5.6 5.1 4.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment .................... 2.9 2.7 1.7 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.1 .8 .5 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.7 1.7 Federal ................................................................................................................ 8.0 7.3 5.5 7.4 3.3 4.4 2.3 1.3 .8 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.1 .1 2.4 –.5 National defense ............................................................................................. 11.7 9.1 7.5 11.1 3.3 7.0 2.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.9 1.7 –1.3 4.3 .4 Nondefense ..................................................................................................... 1.3 4.0 1.9 .6 3.2 –.5 1.8 1.2 –.7 1.5 2.4 4.2 2.9 2.9 –1.4 –2.2 State and local .................................................................................................... .2 .3 –.4 .3 1.0 .3 .4 .5 .3 .5 .8 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.0 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product ......................................................................... 1.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.8 2.9 2.3 3.3 2.3 Gross domestic purchases ................................................................................. 2.3 3.3 3.6 4.5 4.9 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.6 Final sales to domestic purchasers ................................................................... 2.4 3.4 3.7 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.7 1.9 Gross national product ........................................................................................ 2.2 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.3 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.4 2.7 3.4 .......... Real disposable personal income ...................................................................... 1.3 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.6 2.7 4.1 2.1 1.6 .8 .3 2.5 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases ............................................................................. 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.3 2.5 Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy ................................ 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 GDP ................................................................................................................ 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.7 GDP excluding food and energy ................................................................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 PCE ................................................................................................................. 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.8 1.9 2.2 PCE excluding food and energy .................................................................... 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 Market-based PCE 1 ....................................................................................... 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.6 1.6 2.0 Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 1 .......................................... 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 1. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. Table 9.—Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2006 I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product .............................................................................................................. 11,712.5 12,455.8 13,246.6 13,008.4 13,197.3 13,322.6 Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world ......................................................................... Less: Income payments to the rest of the world .......................................................................... 410.2 363.9 513.3 481.5 665.6 635.7 603.3 574.3 661.4 638.6 682.3 665.7 13,458.2 715.5 .................... 664.4 .................... 13,632.6 Equals: Gross national product ................................................................................................. 11,758.7 12,487.7 13,276.5 13,037.4 13,220.1 13,339.2 13,509.3 .................... Less: Consumption of fixed capital ............................................................................................... Less: Statistical discrepancy .......................................................................................................... 1,436.2 66.7 1,604.8 71.0 1,576.9 –2.5 1,548.0 –61.9 1,572.8 35.8 1,582.0 23.5 1,604.6 1,611.8 –7.2 .................... Equals: National income ............................................................................................................. Compensation of employees ..................................................................................................... Wage and salary accruals ..................................................................................................... Supplements to wages and salaries ..................................................................................... Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments .............. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ............................................. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ................... Net interest and miscellaneous payments ................................................................................ Taxes on production and imports less subsidies ..................................................................... Business current transfer payments .......................................................................................... Current surplus of government enterprises .............................................................................. 10,255.9 6,650.3 5,377.1 1,273.2 911.1 127.0 1,182.6 485.1 819.4 85.5 –5.0 10,811.8 7,030.3 5,664.8 1,365.5 970.7 72.8 1,330.7 483.4 865.1 74.2 –15.4 11,702.1 7,489.5 6,035.2 1,454.3 1,015.1 77.4 1,615.7 509.3 912.5 92.6 –9.9 11,551.3 7,400.3 5,970.1 1,430.3 1,008.3 76.8 1,569.1 514.8 897.4 93.8 –9.2 11,611.5 7,425.5 5,980.9 1,444.5 1,011.9 71.4 1,591.8 513.2 914.0 93.1 –9.4 11,733.7 7,489.3 6,027.6 1,461.6 1,014.8 78.3 1,653.3 498.6 916.8 92.8 –10.2 11,911.9 .................... 7,642.9 7,708.9 6,162.3 6,202.3 1,480.6 1,506.6 1,025.3 1,037.5 83.1 86.1 1,648.4 .................... 510.4 494.6 921.9 931.9 90.8 95.1 –10.9 –13.6 Addendum: Gross domestic income ............................................................................................................. 11,645.8 12,384.8 13,249.1 13,070.3 13,161.6 13,299.1 13,465.4 .................... Table 10.—Personal Income and Its Disposition [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2006 I II 2007 III IV I Personal income 1 ........................................................................................................................ 9,731.4 10,239.2 10,883.4 10,721.4 10,807.3 10,939.4 11,065.5 11,311.2 Compensation of employees, received ..................................................................................... Wage and salary disbursements ........................................................................................... Supplements to wages and salaries ..................................................................................... Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments .............. Farm ....................................................................................................................................... Nonfarm .................................................................................................................................. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment ............................................. Personal income receipts on assets ......................................................................................... Personal interest income ....................................................................................................... Personal dividend income ..................................................................................................... Personal current transfer receipts ............................................................................................. 6,665.3 5,392.1 1,273.2 911.1 36.2 874.9 127.0 1,427.9 890.8 537.1 1,426.5 7,030.3 5,664.8 1,365.5 970.7 30.2 940.4 72.8 1,519.4 945.0 574.4 1,526.6 7,477.0 6,022.7 1,454.3 1,015.1 22.6 992.5 77.4 1,656.3 1,016.7 639.6 1,602.2 7,400.3 5,970.1 1,430.3 1,008.3 23.9 984.4 76.8 1,602.3 989.1 613.2 1,570.4 7,425.5 5,980.9 1,444.5 1,011.9 17.5 994.3 71.4 1,647.7 1,019.2 628.5 1,589.7 7,489.3 6,027.6 1,461.6 1,014.8 21.7 993.2 78.3 1,683.6 1,035.8 647.8 1,618.6 7,592.9 6,112.3 1,480.6 1,025.3 27.3 998.0 83.1 1,691.6 1,022.8 668.8 1,629.9 7,758.9 6,252.3 1,506.6 1,037.5 31.7 1,005.8 86.1 1,729.5 1,040.1 689.4 1,685.4 Less: Contributions for government social insurance ............................................................... 826.4 880.6 944.5 936.7 938.8 945.2 957.2 986.3 Less: Personal current taxes ......................................................................................................... 1,049.8 1,203.1 1,360.6 1,332.6 1,361.0 1,362.5 1,386.5 1,444.3 Equals: Disposable personal income ........................................................................................ 8,681.6 9,036.1 9,522.8 9,388.8 9,446.2 9,577.0 9,679.0 9,867.0 Less: Personal outlays ................................................................................................................... 8,507.2 9,070.9 9,625.5 9,418.5 9,577.0 9,710.0 9,796.5 9,969.8 Equals: Personal saving .............................................................................................................. 174.3 –34.8 –102.8 –29.7 –130.8 –133.0 –117.5 –102.8 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income .......................................... 2.0 –.4 –1.1 –.3 –1.4 –1.4 –1.2 –1.0 Addendum: Disposable personal income, billions of chained (2000) dollars 2 ........................................... 8,010.8 8,104.6 8,313.0 8,276.8 8,245.4 8,311.0 8,419.7 8,512.8 1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments, business current transfer payments, current surplus of government enterprises, and wage accruals less disbursements, plus personal income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts. 2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Appendix Table A.—Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2004 2005 2006 2003 II III 2004 IV I II 2005 III IV I II 2006 III IV I II 2007 III IV I Gross domestic product (GDP) and related aggregates: GDP .............................................................................. 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 7.5 2.7 3.9 4.0 3.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 4.2 1.8 5.6 2.6 2.0 2.5 1.3 Goods ........................................................................... Services ........................................................................ Structures ...................................................................... 4.9 3.2 5.2 4.6 2.3 4.6 6.2 2.3 .5 1.6 3.6 9.2 16.2 1.9 14.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.5 .5 3.0 3.0 13.6 5.0 2.5 .6 4.6 2.5 –2.7 4.9 1.8 8.0 3.5 1.8 11.1 6.7 3.5 .7 3.1 .8 3.1 12.8 2.4 2.9 3.6 2.4 .3 3.8 2.8 –7.4 4.0 4.1 –9.9 2.1 2.5 –7.6 Motor vehicle output ..................................................... GDP excluding motor vehicle output ........................... 3.5 3.9 5.9 3.1 –1.7 3.5 10.9 3.2 8.9 7.4 –6.5 3.0 9.9 3.6 –7.1 4.5 16.6 2.7 1.9 2.6 12.0 3.1 –.7 3.4 22.6 –19.1 3.6 2.6 3.8 5.6 –9.4 3.0 27.4 –32.0 1.2 3.8 3.3 1.2 Final sales of computers 1 ........................................... GDP excluding final sales of computers ..................... 8.2 3.9 24.5 3.1 16.8 3.2 –2.5 3.5 90.4 7.0 20.0 –16.0 –17.4 2.5 4.0 4.2 23.0 3.0 42.8 2.4 24.3 3.3 31.5 3.1 11.6 4.1 33.8 1.6 9.5 5.6 6.7 2.5 11.7 1.9 6.7 1.2 26.6 –34.7 –36.1 120.0 –17.4 –2.0 –24.6 40.9 2.2 Farm gross value added 2 ........................................... 7.4 1.0 4.8 19.4 23.7 11.3 8.1 14.1 3.9 –2.0 Nonfarm business gross value added 3 ...................... 4.3 3.8 3.8 4.3 11.0 1.6 3.6 5.2 3.2 2.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 1.8 6.7 2.7 1.9 2.9 1.4 Price indexes: GDP .............................................................................. GDP excluding food and energy ................................. GDP excluding final sales of computers ..................... 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.7 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 2.1 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.3 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.8 4.0 3.0 4.1 Gross domestic purchases .......................................... Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy ....................................................................... Gross domestic purchases excluding final sales of computers to domestic purchasers ......................... 3.1 3.5 3.1 .6 2.2 1.9 4.3 4.1 2.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 4.4 3.5 2.7 4.0 2.2 .2 3.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 1.3 1.8 2.0 3.5 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.3 .7 2.4 2.0 4.4 4.2 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.5 4.6 3.7 2.9 4.2 2.3 .3 3.7 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ................. PCE excluding food and energy .................................. Market-based PCE 4 ..................................................... Market-based PCE excluding food and energy 4 ........ 2.6 2.0 2.3 1.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 1.7 2.7 2.2 2.6 1.9 .7 1.3 .3 1.0 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 .9 .9 3.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 3.6 2.5 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 3.0 2.3 2.9 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.2 3.1 1.9 3.1 1.7 4.1 1.6 4.3 1.2 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 4.0 2.7 4.2 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 –1.0 1.8 –1.6 1.6 3.4 2.2 3.5 2.2 1. 2. 3. 4. Some components of final sales of computers include computer parts. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of households and institutions, and of general government. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable –.9 –13.3 price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. See ‘‘Explanatory Note’’ at the end of the tables. Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or “real” measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year -- at present, the year 2000 -- equal to 100. Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2004-05 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2004 and 2005 as weights, and the 2004-05 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2004 and 2005 as weights. These annual changes are “chained” (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.) Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, and 8. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (2000) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2000 by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 2000 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2001, then the chained (2000) dollar value of this component in 2001 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to rounding. Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the extent of such differences is provided by a “residual” line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few years from the reference year. Reference: “Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes,” November 2003 Survey, pp. 8-16.