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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2006 (Advance)
April 28, 2006
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2006 is based on source data that are
incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment other than aircraft; motor
vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables inventories; federal government
outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices. Only two months of data
were available for most other key data sources; BEA’s assumptions for the third month
are shown in table A. Among those assumptions are the following:
•
•
•
•
an increase in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant retail and wholesale inventories,
no change in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
a decrease in imports of goods, excluding gold.
Estimates of consumer spending for goods and of inventory investment reflected Census
retail sales and retail and wholesale inventories data that were benchmarked to the
annual retail and wholesale trade surveys. These data were incorporated on a bestchange basis.
Prices
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter
after increasing 3.7 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price
index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent after increasing 3.2 percent.
About 0.1 percentage point of the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for
by the pay raise for federal civilian and military personnel, which is treated as an
increase in the price of employee services purchased by the federal government.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2006
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods (other than aircraft), manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for March 2006 are shown in the last column of the
table. For most series shown, the data for February are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
Oct.
2005
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
2006
Feb.
Mar.*
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new total private
construction put in place less
residential (inc. improvements)…..
249.5
253.1
260.1
263.3
265.3
264.3
Equipment and software:
Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft…………………..
27.8
26.5
26.3
33.9
43.4
34.6
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3
Single family………………………..
439.8
445.9
450.3
452.6
458.5
457.8
49.1
49.1
50.3
50.5
50.4
50.3
17.0
-7.6
29.4
26.8
-6.7
5.6
4.0
31.1
63.5
22.0
24.5
13.1
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis……………………
900.7
925.7
949.3
979.2
965.5
966.6
6a
894.6
919.9
943.8
971.6
958.7
958.7
1776.0
1757.9
1791.0
1861.7
1806.4
1791.7
Excluding gold……………………..
1770.8
1752.6
1785.2
1855.7
1801.1
1786.1
8 Net exports of goods………………….
-875.3
-832.2
-841.7
-882.5
-840.9
-825.1
8a
-876.2
-832.7
-841.4
-884.1
-842.4
-827.3
232.7
234.8
235.6
236.0
235.1
235.6
2
4
Multifamily…………………………..
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing………………………..
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment…
7
Excluding gold………………………
Imports of goods:
U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactionsaccounts basis...............…..…....
7a
Excluding gold……………………..
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9
Value of new construction put
in place……………………………..
____________
*Assumption.