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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 6:00 p.m. EST, Tuesday, January 31, 2023 Technical: Media: Michelle Grier (BEA) Connie O’Connell (BEA) Melissa Braybrooks (OIA) 301-278-9076 301-278-9003 202-336-2651 BEA 23–04 Territories@bea.gov Connie.OConnell@bea.gov Melissa_Braybrooks@ios.doi.gov Gross Domestic Product for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, 2020 Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Compensation by Industry, 2019 Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) decreased 29.7 percent in 2020 after decreasing 11.3 percent in 2019 (table 1.3), according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). These statistics were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. GDP for 2020 The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in exports of goods and services, private fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, and government spending (table 1.4). Imports, a subtraction item in the calculation of GDP, also decreased. Chart 1. CNMI: Contributions to the Percent Change in Real GDP, 2020 Percentage points 20 14.27 10 0 –3.58 –10 –2.73 –6.52 –20 –30 –40 –29.7% GDP –31.14 Personal consumption expenditures Private fixed investment Government spending Exports Imports Note. The chart shows the percent change of total real GDP and the contributions (in percentage points) of each major component to that change. For example, personal consumption expenditures accounted for 3.58 percentage points of the 29.7 percent decrease in real GDP in 2020. Imports are a subtraction item; thus, a decrease in imports results in a positive contribution to GDP. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Page 1 of 5 Coronavirus (COVID–19) Impact on the 2020 CNMI GDP Estimate The CNMI economy was substantially affected by the COVID–19 pandemic due to its effects on spending by consumers, visitors, businesses, and governments. The U.S. government passed several laws to support and sustain businesses and individuals through the pandemic. Expenditures funded by the various federal grants and transfer payments are reflected in the GDP estimates. However, the full effects of the pandemic cannot be quantified in BEA’s statistics for the CNMI, because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. Exports of goods and services decreased 74.4 percent (table 1.3). The decrease in exports was largely accounted for by exports of services, which consists primarily of visitor spending, including on casino gambling. Statistics published by the CNMI government showed that the number of visitor arrivals to the CNMI decreased 81.7 percent, reflecting effects of the COVID–19 pandemic. According to publicly available financial statements, revenues from casino gambling decreased over 95 percent. Private fixed investment decreased 42.7 percent (table 1.3), reflecting a decline in spending on structures and equipment. Private sector construction activity, including the development of a casino resort on Saipan, decreased substantially in 2020. Personal consumption expenditures decreased 6.2 percent (table 1.3), reflecting declines in spending on both goods and services. Businesses throughout the CNMI operated at a reduced capacity due to the COVID–19 pandemic. Government spending decreased 6.0 percent (table 1.3), reflecting a decline in federal government spending. Federal government spending decreased 43.0 percent (table 1.3) after being elevated in 2019 to support recovery activities following Typhoon Yutu. GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2019 In 2019, real GDP decreased 11.3 percent. The newly available GDP by industry data, which are released on a 1-year lag, reveal that the private sector was the primary source of decline in real GDP in 2019 (table 2.5). The private sector decreased 12.4 percent (table 2.4), reflecting a decline in accommodations, food services, and amusements. According to publicly available financial statements, revenues from casino gambling dropped over 80 percent in 2019. Additionally, data from the CNMI government show that visitor arrivals declined in 2019. The government sector decreased 7.2 percent (table 2.4), reflecting a decline in territorial government due primarily to higher operating losses of government utilities in the aftermath of Typhoon Yutu. Total compensation decreased from $721 million in 2018 to $700 million in 2019 (table 2.6). The $21 million decrease reflected a decline in private-sector compensation. The largest contributor to the decline was accommodations, food services, and amusements. Page 2 of 5 Updates to CNMI GDP and Its Components Estimates for 2018–2019 that were released on April 6, 2021, have been revised to incorporate updates to source data, including the following: • • • • Tabulations of business revenues data provided by the CNMI Department of Finance, Data for revenue tonnage of exports from the CNMI Central Statistics Division, Financial statements for the CNMI government and its independent agencies, and Federal government contract obligations data from the U.S. General Services Administration Federal Procurement Data System. The revised estimates exhibit a pattern of inflation-adjusted GDP growth similar to the previously published estimates (table 1.7). Due to lags in the availability of data for various components of GDP, the statistics presented today for 2020 are preliminary estimates. For example, as of mid-January 2023, the CNMI government’s fiscal year 2020 audited financial statements were unavailable. BEA used draft versions of these financial statements to prepare estimates of government spending. As additional source data become available, BEA will incorporate the information and will release updated estimates once a year. For more information on the data sources underlying these estimates, see Summary of Methodologies: Gross Domestic Product for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Next release: fall 2023 Gross Domestic Product for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, 2021 CNMI GDP by Industry and Compensation by Industry, 2020 Page 3 of 5 Additional Information Resources • • • • Stay informed about BEA developments by reading The BEA Wire, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. Historical time series for gross domestic product for the U.S. territories can be accessed at BEA’s website. For more on BEA statistics, see our online journal, the Survey of Current Business. For upcoming economic indicators, see BEA’s news release schedule. the rest of the world. Imports measures the portion of total CNMI expenditures that is accounted for by goods and services provided by the rest of the world. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, or “government spending,” measures the portion of GDP that is accounted for by the government sector. Government consumption expenditures consists of spending by government to produce and provide services to the public. Gross investment consists of spending by government for fixed assets that directly benefit the public or that assist government agencies in their production activities. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. Definitions Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, private fixed investment, change in private inventories, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Personal consumption expenditures measures the goods and services purchased by “persons”—that is, by households and by nonprofit institutions serving households—who are resident in CNMI. Private fixed investment measures spending by CNMI private businesses, nonprofit institutions, and households on structures and equipment that are used in the production of goods and services. Net exports of goods and services is the difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services. Exports measures the portion of total CNMI production of goods and services that is provided to Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value” (also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates”). Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Statistical conventions Quantities (or “real” volume measures) and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher chain-weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current-dollar value in the reference year and then dividing by 100. Chained-dollar values are not additive, because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. Page 4 of 5 News Release Tables Table 1.1. Gross Domestic Product Table 1.2. Real Gross Domestic Product Table 1.3. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product Table 1.4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Table 1.5. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Table 1.6. Gross Domestic Income Table 1.7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Table 2.1. Value Added by Industry Table 2.2. Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Table 2.3. Real Value Added by Industry Table 2.4. Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry Table 2.5. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Table 2.6. Compensation of Employees by Industry Page 5 of 5 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 1.1. Gross Domestic Product Line 1 Gross domestic product .................................. 2 Personal consumption expenditures ............ 3 Goods............................................................ 4 Durable goods............................................ 5 Nondurable goods..................................... 6 Services......................................................... 7 Net foreign travel.......................................... 8 Private fixed investment ............................... 9 Net exports of goods and services................. 10 Exports ......................................................... 11 Goods ........................................................ 12 Services ..................................................... 13 Imports ......................................................... 14 Goods ........................................................ 15 Services ..................................................... 16 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................... 17 Federal.......................................................... 18 Territorial...................................................... r Revised p Preliminary Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Millions of dollars] 2012 2013 2014 746 772 832 460 490 525 399 412 433 143 153 164 256 260 269 418 456 507 -357 -378 -414 79 88 112 -98 -123 -123 379 402 437 16 17 15 364 385 422 478 525 560 409 449 477 69 76 82 305 21 284 317 20 297 318 22 296 2015 910 529 428 169 259 563 -461 192 -153 482 13 469 635 488 147 2016 1,230 571 435 173 262 992 -855 398 -116 882 19 863 998 636 362 2017 1,560 654 490 192 298 1,215 -1,051 379 112 1,081 23 1,059 969 621 348 2018r 1,301 679 483 190 293 822 -626 222 -95 660 26 634 754 598 157 2019r 1,181 687 466 183 283 672 -451 183 -235 500 41 459 735 601 133 2020p 858 644 328 142 185 424 -108 105 -408 128 16 112 536 443 94 342 28 314 376 24 352 415 26 390 495 52 443 546 77 469 517 44 472 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 1.2. Real Gross Domestic Product Line 1 Gross domestic product................................... 2 Personal consumption expenditures ............ 3 Goods............................................................ 4 Durable goods............................................ 5 Nondurable goods..................................... 6 Services......................................................... 7 Net foreign travel.......................................... 8 Private fixed investment ............................... 9 Net exports of goods and services................. 10 Exports ......................................................... 11 Goods ........................................................ 12 Services ..................................................... 13 Imports ......................................................... 14 Goods ........................................................ 15 Services ..................................................... 16 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................... 17 Federal.......................................................... 18 Territorial...................................................... r Revised p Preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Millions of chained (2012) dollars] 2012 2013 2014 2015 746 766 798 825 555 460 497 533 399 415 425 430 143 154 162 175 256 261 263 256 418 454 497 558 -357 -371 -390 -433 79 88 111 191 -98 -128 -145 -248 379 395 411 453 16 17 15 13 364 378 397 439 478 523 556 701 409 448 477 555 142 69 75 79 305 21 284 309 19 290 300 21 279 320 27 293 2016 1,066 595 437 177 260 953 -774 392 -320 804 20 783 1,124 749 344 2017 1,313 662 476 187 289 1,148 -935 361 -98 968 23 944 1,067 710 327 2018r 1,060 670 456 181 275 757 -540 202 -221 576 26 551 796 654 142 2019r 940 674 436 171 265 619 -388 164 -348 434 40 397 783 666 120 2020p 661 632 306 133 173 390 -92 94 -486 111 16 96 597 516 85 349 23 326 369 23 346 412 45 368 444 66 380 418 38 381 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 1.3. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 1 Gross domestic product .................................. 2 Personal consumption expenditures ............ 3 Goods............................................................ 4 Durable goods............................................ 5 Nondurable goods..................................... 6 Services......................................................... 7 Net foreign travel.......................................... 8 Private fixed investment ............................... 9 Net exports of goods and services................. 10 Exports ......................................................... 11 Goods ........................................................ 12 Services ..................................................... 13 Imports ......................................................... 14 Goods ........................................................ 15 Services ..................................................... 16 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................... 17 Federal.......................................................... 18 Territorial...................................................... r Revised p Preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Percent] 2013 2014 2.7 4.2 8.1 7.2 3.9 2.5 7.3 5.2 2.0 1.0 8.6 9.5 …….. …….. 11.1 26.8 …….. …….. 4.1 4.1 6.9 -11.7 4.0 4.8 9.4 6.4 9.5 6.5 9.0 6.3 1.4 -6.4 1.9 -2.8 7.9 -3.5 2015 3.3 4.2 1.1 7.8 -2.9 12.4 …….. 72.0 …….. 10.1 -9.0 10.7 26.0 16.4 78.4 2016 29.3 7.2 1.6 1.7 1.5 70.7 …….. 104.6 …….. 77.5 48.2 78.3 60.4 34.9 142.7 2017 23.2 11.2 9.0 5.4 11.4 20.5 …….. -7.9 …….. 20.5 16.5 20.6 -5.1 -5.2 -4.9 2018r -19.3 1.1 -4.2 -3.1 -4.9 -34.0 …….. -43.9 …….. -40.6 11.8 -41.7 -25.4 -7.9 -56.7 2019r -11.3 0.7 -4.4 -5.5 -3.7 -18.3 …….. -19.0 …….. -24.5 57.4 -27.9 -1.7 1.8 -15.1 2020p -29.7 -6.2 -29.8 -22.2 -34.7 -36.9 …….. -42.7 …….. -74.4 -59.9 -75.7 -23.7 -22.5 -29.0 6.5 26.5 5.0 9.0 -14.1 11.0 5.9 2.4 6.2 11.7 93.1 6.4 7.8 45.8 3.3 -6.0 -43.0 0.1 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 January 31, 2023 Table 1.4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change: Gross domestic product .................................. Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures ............ Goods............................................................ Durable goods............................................ Nondurable goods..................................... Services......................................................... Net foreign travel.......................................... Private fixed investment ............................... Net exports of goods and services................. Exports ......................................................... Goods ........................................................ Services ..................................................... Imports ......................................................... Goods ........................................................ Services ..................................................... Government consumption expenditures and gross investment ................................... Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... r Revised p Preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018r 2019r 2020p 2.7 4.2 3.3 29.3 23.2 -19.3 -11.3 -29.7 4.91 2.07 1.39 0.68 4.79 -1.95 1.17 -3.92 2.09 0.14 1.95 -6.01 -5.18 -0.83 4.48 1.34 1.02 0.32 5.56 -2.42 3.01 -2.16 2.16 -0.25 2.41 -4.31 -3.70 -0.61 2.54 0.55 1.47 -0.92 7.31 -5.32 9.40 -11.03 5.16 -0.16 5.32 -16.19 -8.65 -7.54 4.12 0.73 0.30 0.43 43.51 -40.13 21.67 0.16 40.81 0.68 40.13 -40.65 -17.98 -22.67 5.21 3.18 0.77 2.42 16.37 -14.34 -2.56 18.69 14.59 0.25 14.33 4.10 2.68 1.42 0.46 -1.31 -0.38 -0.93 -26.40 28.18 -10.74 -12.20 -28.00 0.17 -28.17 15.80 3.15 12.65 0.36 -1.63 -0.80 -0.83 -11.47 13.46 -3.24 -11.37 -12.34 1.13 -13.47 0.97 -0.83 1.81 -3.58 -11.62 -3.38 -8.23 -20.75 28.79 -6.52 -16.88 -31.14 -2.04 -29.10 14.27 11.04 3.22 0.57 -0.18 0.75 -1.15 0.20 -1.35 2.42 0.69 1.73 3.31 -0.43 3.74 1.81 0.05 1.77 3.17 1.54 1.63 2.95 1.82 1.13 -2.73 -2.78 0.05 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 1.5. Percent Change from Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line 2012 1 2 Gross domestic product .................................. Personal consumption expenditures .............. 3 4 Gross domestic product .................................. Personal consumption expenditures .............. r Revised p Preliminary U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013 2014 2015 Percent 1.4 0.7 3.4 5.9 -3.3 0.9 -1.4 0.0 Index numbers, 2012=100 100.0 100.7 104.2 110.3 100.0 98.6 98.6 95.3 2016 2017 2018r 2019r 2020p 4.6 0.7 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 0.5 3.3 0.0 115.4 96.0 118.8 98.7 122.8 101.4 125.7 101.8 129.8 101.8 2015 910 499 2016 1,230 584 2017 1,560 661 2018r 1,301 721 2019r 1,181 700 2020p 858 567 165 246 229 417 244 655 205 375 170 311 115 176 Table 1.6. Gross Domestic Income Line 1 Gross domestic income.................................... 2 Compensation of employees........................... 3 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies.................................................... 4 Gross operating surplus................................... r Revised p Preliminary Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Line [Millions of dollars] 2012 2013 2014 746 772 832 415 433 471 102 229 121 218 153 208 Table 1.7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2 Percent change: Revised............................................................. Previously published........................................ 3 Percentage points: Revision............................................................ r Revised U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018r 2019r 2.7 2.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 3.3 29.3 29.3 23.2 23.2 -19.3 -19.3 -11.3 -11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 2.1. Value Added by Industry Line 1 2 3 4 5 Gross domestic product .................................. Private industries.......................................... Manufacturing.............................................. Wholesale and retail trade........................... Accommodations, food services, and amusements…............................................... Other private................................................. Government.................................................. Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... 6 7 8 9 r Revised Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Millions of dollars] 2012 2013 2014 746 772 832 559 574 629 12 11 16 157 172 182 114 276 187 14 173 131 260 198 14 184 144 287 203 14 189 2015 910 696 20 193 2016 1,230 1,004 23 205 2017 1,560 1,299 19 220 2018r 1,301 1,018 21 239 2019 1,181 912 27 255 180 302 214 15 199 437 339 226 16 210 691 369 261 17 244 385 373 283 17 266 249 381 269 20 249 Table 2.2. Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Line 1 2 3 4 5 Gross domestic product .................................. Private industries.......................................... Manufacturing.............................................. Wholesale and retail trade........................... Accommodations, food services, and amusements…........................................ Other private................................................. Government.................................................. Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... 6 7 8 9 r Revised Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Percent] 2012 2013 100 100 75 74 2 1 21 22 15 37 25 2 23 17 34 26 2 24 2014 100 76 2 22 2015 100 76 2 21 2016 100 82 2 17 2017 100 83 1 14 2018r 100 78 2 18 2019 100 77 2 22 17 34 24 2 23 20 33 24 2 22 36 28 18 1 17 44 24 17 1 16 30 29 22 1 20 21 32 23 2 21 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands January 31, 2023 Table 2.3. Real Value Added by Industry [Millions of chained (2012) dollars] Line 2012 2013 2014 2015 825 1 Gross domestic product .................................. 746 766 798 2 Private industries.......................................... 559 574 606 629 3 Manufacturing.............................................. 12 11 15 19 4 Wholesale and retail trade........................... 157 170 179 187 Accommodations, food services, and 5 amusements…............................................... 114 128 136 163 6 Other private................................................. 276 264 275 260 7 Government.................................................. 187 193 193 195 8 Federal.......................................................... 14 14 13 14 9 Territorial...................................................... 173 179 179 181 2016 1,066 860 22 199 2017 1,313 1,084 18 209 2018r 1,060 831 19 218 2019 940 727 25 225 366 270 204 15 189 572 279 226 15 211 309 283 226 15 211 193 286 210 16 193 r Revised U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Table 2.4. Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry Line 1 2 3 4 5 Gross domestic product .................................. Private industries.......................................... Manufacturing.............................................. Wholesale and retail trade........................... Accommodations, food services, and amusements…............................................... Other private................................................. Government.................................................. Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... 6 7 8 9 r Revised U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Percent] 2013 2014 2.7 4.2 2.6 5.6 -4.1 35.7 8.3 5.3 12.0 -4.4 3.2 -1.6 3.6 6.6 4.1 -0.1 -3.4 0.2 2015 3.3 3.9 24.1 4.4 2016 29.3 36.7 16.2 6.5 2017 23.2 26.0 -16.4 5.0 2018r -19.3 -23.3 4.3 4.2 2019 -11.3 -12.4 33.0 3.3 19.8 -5.3 1.4 5.0 1.2 124.3 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 56.0 3.3 10.8 1.7 11.5 -45.9 1.4 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -37.5 1.0 -7.2 11.3 -8.4 Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Line 1 2 3 4 5 January 31, 2023 Table 2.5. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Percent change: Gross domestic product................................... Percentage points: Private industries.......................................... Manufacturing.............................................. Wholesale and retail trade........................... Accommodations, food services, and amusements…............................................... Other private................................................. Government.................................................. Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018r 2019 2.7 4.2 3.3 29.3 23.2 -19.3 -11.3 1.93 -0.06 1.75 4.20 0.52 1.16 2.92 0.44 0.93 28.22 0.34 1.34 21.17 -0.30 0.84 -19.35 0.05 0.59 -9.71 0.52 0.61 1.85 -1.60 0.80 -0.03 0.83 1.12 1.41 -0.02 -0.06 0.04 3.41 -1.86 0.35 0.08 0.27 25.24 1.29 0.99 0.07 0.92 19.72 0.91 2.00 0.02 1.98 -20.31 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.02 -11.13 0.29 -1.58 0.15 -1.73 2015 499 313 9 73 2016 584 387 10 76 2017 661 441 9 80 2018r 721 465 9 88 2019 700 425 12 94 105 126 186 15 171 160 140 197 16 182 198 155 220 16 203 213 156 255 17 238 173 147 275 19 256 6 7 8 9 r Revised Note. Percentage-point contributions do not sum to the percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) because of rounding and differences in source data used to estimate GDP by industry and the expenditures measure of real GDP. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Table 2.6. Compensation of Employees by Industry Line 1 2 3 4 Total compensation......................................... Private industries.......................................... Manufacturing.............................................. Wholesale and retail trade........................... Accommodations, food services, and amusements…............................................... Other private................................................. Government.................................................. Federal.......................................................... Territorial...................................................... 5 6 7 8 9 r Revised Note. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Millions of dollars] 2012 2013 2014 415 433 471 252 267 299 8 6 6 63 67 70 64 119 162 14 148 73 121 165 14 152 80 143 171 14 158