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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 11:30 P.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2018 Technical: Media: Christina Hovland (BEA) Jeannine Aversa (BEA) Tanya Harris Joshua (OIA) (301) 278-9076 (301) 278-9003 (202) 208-6008 BEA 18-55 territories@bea.gov Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov Tanya_Joshua@ios.doi.gov CNMI GDP INCREASES IN 2017 Growth led by tourism and gaming industry revenues CAPITOL HILL, SAIPAN (October 18, 2018) -- Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is releasing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) for 2017, in addition to estimates of GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2016. 1 These estimates were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Revised estimates of GDP for 2013 to 2016, as well as revised estimates of GDP by industry and compensation by industry for 2013 to 2015, are also presented in this release. Gross Domestic Product for 2017 The estimates of GDP for the CNMI show that real GDP—GDP adjusted to remove price changes— increased 25.1 percent in 2017 after increasing 28.2 percent in 2016 (see Table 1.3). For comparison, real GDP for the United States (excluding the territories) increased 2.2 percent in 2017 after increasing 1.6 percent in 2016. Real GDP: Percent change from preceding year 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1 These estimates are based on limited source data and are subject to revision. 2016 2017 The largest contributor to growth in the CNMI economy was exports of services (see Table 1.4). The increase in exports of services reflected continued growth in visitor spending, particularly on casino gambling. The number of visitors to the CNMI grew 24 percent in 2017, following an increase of 11 percent in 2016. Partly offsetting the growth in exports of services was a decline in private fixed investment, which decreased 8.9 percent after three consecutive years of double-digit growth. However, real business spending on construction and equipment remained at historically high levels, supported by continued development of the casino resort on Saipan (see Table 1.2). Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Compensation by Industry for 2016 The estimates of GDP by industry for the CNMI show that the private sector was the source of the growth in real GDP in 2016 (see Table 2.5). The largest contributor to growth was the accommodations and amusement sector, reflecting growth in tourism and output of the casino industry. The compensation by industry estimates, which are measured in current dollars, show trends in compensation for major industries (see Table 2.6). Total compensation increased in 2016, reflecting increases in all sectors shown in the table. The largest increase was in the accommodations and amusement sector. The accompanying tables present estimates for GDP and its major components, GDP by industry, and compensation by industry. Also included in this release are estimates for the major components of gross domestic income. Revisions to GDP Estimates for 2013 to 2016 that were released on October 16, 2017 have been revised in order to incorporate improvements to source data, including: • newly available data for territorial government spending from government financial statements, • updated international trade data provided by the CNMI government, and • the 2016 CNMI Consumer Price Index. The revised estimates show a similar pattern of inflation-adjusted growth as the previously published estimates (see Table 1.7). Future directions Moving forward, an agreement between OIA and BEA will extend and improve the estimates of GDP for the CNMI. The information provided by the CNMI government will continue to be critical to the successful production of these estimates. BEA currently plans to release GDP estimates for 2018 beginning in the summer of 2019. GDP by industry and compensation by industry estimates for 2017 will also be released at the same time. -2- Additional Information Resources • • • • • CNMI expenditures that is accounted for by goods and services provided by the rest of the world. Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed at BEA’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the U.S. Territories. Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. BEA's news release schedule Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, or “government spending,” measures the portion of GDP that is accounted for by the government sector. Government consumption expenditures consists of spending by government to produce and provide services to the public. Gross investment consists of spending by government for fixed assets that directly benefit the public or that assist government agencies in their production activities. Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. Definitions Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the CNMI economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, private fixed investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. Statistical Conventions Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), also referred to as “consumer spending,” measures the goods and services purchased by “persons”—that is, by households and by nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs)—who are resident in the CNMI. Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher chain-weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current-dollar value in the reference year (2009) and then dividing by 100. Private fixed investment (PFI) measures spending by private businesses, nonprofit institutions, and households on fixed assets in the CNMI economy. Fixed assets consist of structures, equipment, and software that are used in the production of goods and services. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. Net exports of goods and services is the difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services. Exports measures the portion of total CNMI production of goods and services that is provided to the rest of the world. Imports measures the portion of total -3- List of News Release Tables Table 1.1. Table 1.2. Table 1.3. Table 1.4. Table 1.5. Table 1.6. Table 1.7. Table 2.1. Table 2.2. Table 2.3. Table 2.4. Table 2.5. Table 2.6. Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Income Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Value Added by Industry Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of GDP Real Value Added by Industry Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Compensation of Employees by Industry -4- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 1. Domestic Product and Income Table 1.1. Gross Domestic Product [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 782 845 931 1,250 1,593 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 480 358 137 222 409 -287 504 387 142 245 427 -310 431 332 119 213 381 -283 442 354 130 224 398 -309 451 366 132 234 378 -293 469 399 143 256 427 -357 494 424 166 257 460 -390 520 451 186 265 498 -429 526 453 194 258 556 -483 551 462 202 259 965 -876 597 523 227 296 1,214 -1,140 Private fixed investment 8 79 83 85 77 74 79 87 123 198 327 301 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 47 627 333 293 579 498 81 29 488 172 316 459 394 66 -47 312 23 289 360 307 53 -70 335 19 316 405 346 59 -132 317 17 300 449 384 65 -98 380 16 364 478 409 69 -111 414 17 397 525 449 76 -110 451 15 436 561 477 84 -130 504 13 491 633 488 145 0 903 19 883 902 636 267 296 1,170 23 1,148 874 632 242 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 332 13 319 324 15 308 327 20 306 349 22 327 340 22 318 301 21 279 312 20 292 312 22 290 336 29 308 372 26 346 400 26 374 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. -5- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.2. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars [Millions of chained (2009) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 1,084 964 795 806 744 748 766 795 822 1,054 1,319 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 516 395 149 246 434 -313 509 400 149 251 433 -324 431 332 119 213 381 -283 444 349 127 222 389 -294 430 338 121 217 354 -263 440 363 131 232 390 -313 463 388 153 234 413 -336 483 403 169 235 435 -353 499 414 185 230 485 -400 518 422 190 233 812 -732 545 463 203 260 1,006 -945 Private fixed investment 8 80 82 85 78 72 76 84 119 193 320 292 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 147 747 396 320 600 511 88 48 476 138 331 428 361 67 -47 312 23 289 360 307 53 -56 320 19 300 376 320 56 -82 284 15 269 367 308 59 -52 333 14 319 384 323 61 -64 357 15 342 421 354 67 -76 373 13 359 449 378 71 -148 415 12 402 563 440 124 -105 721 18 702 825 594 229 138 920 20 898 782 574 206 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 348 13 335 326 16 310 327 20 306 341 21 320 327 21 307 286 20 265 289 19 270 279 20 259 297 25 272 324 23 301 340 22 317 Addenda: Population (thousands)1 Per capita real GDP (chained dollars) 19 20 59.3 18,280 57.6 16,736 55.5 14,324 53.5 15,065 52.2 14,253 51.4 14,553 51.2 14,961 51.0 15,588 50.8 16,181 50.6 20,830 50.3 26,223 (1) Source: U.S. Census Bureau NOTE. Estimates of population for 2013–2017 reflect the incorporation of updated information from the U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base. -6- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.3. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.4 3.9 3.4 28.2 25.1 Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 2 3 4 5 6 7 -1.4 1.3 0.2 2.0 -0.3 …….. -15.4 -17.1 -20.2 -15.3 -11.9 …….. 3.0 5.1 6.7 4.1 2.0 …….. -3.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -9.1 …….. 2.4 7.4 8.5 6.8 10.4 …….. 5.3 6.7 17.0 1.0 5.7 …….. 4.2 4.0 10.0 0.1 5.3 …….. 3.4 2.7 9.5 -2.1 11.6 …….. 3.7 2.0 3.1 1.2 67.4 …….. 5.3 9.6 6.7 11.9 23.9 …….. Private fixed investment 8 2.1 4.4 -8.9 -6.9 5.6 9.4 42.2 62.6 65.7 -8.9 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 …….. -36.3 -65.2 3.4 -28.6 -29.3 -24.3 …….. -34.4 -83.4 -12.5 -16.0 -15.0 -21.2 …….. 2.4 -16.7 3.8 4.5 4.3 6.0 …….. -11.1 -20.8 -10.5 -2.5 -3.8 5.7 …….. 17.1 -8.6 18.5 4.8 5.0 3.8 …….. 7.2 6.9 7.3 9.5 9.6 8.8 …….. 4.5 -11.7 5.2 6.7 6.6 7.3 …….. 11.3 -9.0 11.9 25.4 16.4 73.4 …….. 73.8 48.2 74.5 46.6 35.0 85.3 …….. 27.6 16.5 27.8 -5.3 -3.3 -10.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 -6.4 19.2 -7.4 0.2 30.7 -1.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -4.0 -12.8 -2.5 -13.5 1.1 -6.4 1.7 -3.2 7.4 -4.0 6.3 26.3 4.8 9.2 -9.5 10.9 4.7 -3.3 5.4 -7- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Net foreign travel 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.4 3.9 3.4 28.2 25.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -0.68 0.48 0.03 0.45 -0.13 -1.02 -8.36 -7.20 -3.14 -4.06 -5.45 4.28 1.65 2.14 1.02 1.12 0.99 -1.47 -1.80 -1.39 -0.84 -0.55 -4.67 4.25 1.47 3.69 1.52 2.17 5.37 -7.60 3.27 3.55 3.22 0.33 3.25 -3.52 2.63 2.13 2.09 0.04 3.13 -2.64 2.00 1.37 1.99 -0.63 6.64 -6.00 2.07 0.95 0.63 0.31 40.08 -38.96 2.34 3.56 1.11 2.46 18.42 -19.64 Private fixed investment 8 0.17 0.38 -0.96 -0.67 0.56 0.98 4.59 8.83 13.64 -2.32 Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -8.43 -25.55 -26.56 1.01 17.13 15.13 2.00 -9.64 -17.22 -12.91 -4.31 7.58 6.08 1.50 -1.19 0.95 -0.49 1.44 -2.14 -1.74 -0.41 -3.46 -4.80 -0.53 -4.27 1.35 1.78 -0.43 4.44 7.39 -0.20 7.58 -2.95 -2.62 -0.33 -2.35 3.66 0.14 3.52 -6.01 -5.21 -0.80 -2.05 2.38 -0.25 2.63 -4.43 -3.73 -0.70 -9.70 5.85 -0.15 6.00 -15.55 -8.49 -7.06 9.18 39.63 0.66 38.97 -30.45 -17.55 -12.89 23.68 19.89 0.25 19.63 3.79 1.66 2.13 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 16 17 18 -2.12 0.24 -2.36 0.08 0.51 -0.43 1.82 0.11 1.71 -1.75 -0.10 -1.65 -5.92 -0.07 -5.84 0.45 -0.18 0.63 -1.28 0.19 -1.47 2.28 0.68 1.60 3.26 -0.29 3.55 1.42 -0.07 1.48 -8- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 1.5. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 1.6 12.5 2.7 -0.8 2 3.2 6.3 1.1 -0.4 3 86.5 97.4 4 93.0 98.9 2011 -0.7 2012 2013 [Percent] 1.9 2014 2015 2016 2017 1.7 4.1 6.5 4.8 1.9 1.1 -2.2 1.0 3.0 100.0 5.3 1.6 -0.1 [Index numbers, 2009=100] 99.2 98.5 100.4 102.1 106.3 113.2 118.6 120.9 100.0 99.6 107.7 105.4 106.4 109.6 104.9 106.6 106.6 Table 1.6. Gross Domestic Income [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic income 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 782 845 931 1,250 1,593 Compensation of employees 2 533 501 455 456 431 415 433 469 497 581 655 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies 3 119 109 99 94 95 102 121 153 165 229 254 Gross operating surplus 4 286 329 241 249 207 234 228 223 269 440 684 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 1.7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2008 2009 2010 Percent change: Revised Previously published 1 2 -11.1 -11.1 -17.5 -17.5 1.3 1.3 Percentage points: Revision 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -7.7 -7.7 0.6 0.6 2.4 2.7 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.8 28.2 28.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -9- Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands 2. GDP by Industry Table 2.1. Value Added by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 938 939 795 799 733 751 782 845 931 1,250 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 717 174 140 111 291 727 50 165 122 390 586 18 135 105 328 589 16 149 110 314 540 15 153 97 274 563 12 157 114 280 583 11 170 134 269 642 15 178 149 301 716 18 187 188 323 1,024 22 196 450 355 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 222 13 209 212 14 197 209 16 193 210 14 196 193 15 178 188 15 173 198 15 184 203 14 189 215 16 199 226 16 210 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 2.2. Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of GDP [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 76 19 15 12 31 77 5 18 13 42 74 2 17 13 41 74 2 19 14 39 74 2 21 13 37 75 2 21 15 37 75 1 22 17 34 76 2 21 18 36 77 2 20 20 35 82 2 16 36 28 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 24 1 22 23 1 21 26 2 24 26 2 25 26 2 24 25 2 23 25 2 24 24 2 22 23 2 21 18 1 17 - 10 - Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 2.3. Real Value Added by Industry [Millions of chained (2009) dollars] Line Gross domestic product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 1,084 964 795 806 744 748 766 795 822 1,054 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 846 181 147 120 391 745 52 169 128 396 586 18 135 105 328 601 16 147 110 328 560 15 148 98 298 573 11 148 110 303 585 10 158 126 288 616 13 164 136 298 639 16 170 165 283 864 20 179 364 289 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 237 13 224 219 15 205 209 16 193 204 14 191 184 14 170 176 14 163 182 13 168 182 13 169 185 13 172 192 14 178 Table 2.4. Percent Changes in Real Value Added by Industry [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.4 3.9 3.4 28.2 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 -12.0 -71.4 15.1 6.9 1.2 -21.3 -65.4 -20.4 -17.8 -17.1 2.6 -10.5 9.3 4.2 0.1 -6.9 -7.8 0.8 -11.0 -9.1 2.3 -27.3 -0.3 13.0 1.6 2.1 -6.5 7.1 13.8 -5.2 5.2 32.3 3.8 8.4 3.5 3.8 21.1 3.4 20.8 -4.9 35.3 23.1 5.4 121.2 2.1 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 -7.5 10.0 -8.6 -4.6 9.9 -5.6 -2.3 -15.1 -1.2 -9.9 1.5 -10.8 -4.3 -2.4 -4.5 3.1 -2.1 3.6 -0.1 -3.8 0.2 2.0 4.7 1.8 3.7 3.9 3.7 - 11 - Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Table 2.5. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 1 -11.1 -17.5 1.3 -7.7 0.6 2.4 3.9 3.4 28.2 2 3 4 5 6 -9.27 -12.60 2.16 0.78 0.39 -16.49 -3.50 -3.58 -2.34 -7.07 1.94 -0.24 1.58 0.55 0.04 -5.05 -0.16 0.16 -1.52 -3.53 1.68 -0.58 -0.06 1.74 0.58 1.57 -0.10 1.48 2.12 -1.92 3.91 0.45 0.82 1.42 1.22 2.88 0.36 0.70 3.63 -1.81 27.29 0.44 1.05 25.07 0.72 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 -1.71 0.13 -1.84 -1.04 0.15 -1.19 -0.61 -0.32 -0.30 -2.65 0.03 -2.68 -1.13 -0.05 -1.08 0.79 -0.04 0.83 -0.03 -0.07 0.04 0.49 0.08 0.41 0.84 0.06 0.77 NOTE. Percentage-point contributions do not sum to the percent change in real gross domestic product because of rounding and differences in source data used to estimate GDP by industry and the expenditures measure of real GDP. Table 2.6. Compensation of Employees by Industry [Millions of dollars] Line 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 533 501 455 456 431 415 433 469 497 581 Private industries Manufacturing Distributive Services Accommodations and Amusement All Other 2 3 4 5 6 336 74 62 61 140 307 26 72 67 142 263 9 58 58 137 264 8 62 60 134 259 8 62 54 135 252 8 63 64 119 267 7 67 74 118 298 10 71 83 135 311 12 74 104 121 383 15 78 150 141 Government Federal Territorial 7 8 9 197 13 184 194 14 180 192 16 176 191 14 177 172 14 158 163 14 149 166 14 152 171 14 158 186 15 171 198 16 182 Total compensation NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. - 12 -