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NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 7:30 PM EDT, SUNDAY, JULY 17, 2011 Aya Hamano: Wali Osman: (202) 606-9683 (BEA) (202) 208-4292 (OIA) BEA 11-37 THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (BEA) RELEASES ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR GUAM HAGATNA, GUAM (July 18, 2011) -- Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is releasing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Guam for 2008 and 2009.1 This release also includes revised estimates for 2002 to 2007. 2 These estimates were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. The estimates for Guam show that real GDP -- GDP adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 1.7 percent in 2009 after increasing 0.5 percent in 2008 (see Table 3). For comparison, real GDP for the U.S. (excluding the territories) decreased 2.6 percent in 2009 after remaining unchanged in 2008. The largest contributor to the growth in real GDP during this period was federal government spending. 3 The majority of this spending was by the Department of Defense. Federal spending increased in both 2008 and 2009; the increases in both years largely reflected increases in construction spending and in compensation. The tourism industry continued to weaken in 2008 and 2009, negatively impacting economic growth. Spending by tourists makes up the vast majority of Guam’s exports of services. Real exports of services declined 9.0 percent in 2009 after falling 12.1 percent in 2008 (see Table 3). These declines reflected decreases in the number of visitors to Guam. Real consumer spending fell 1.5 percent in 2009 after remaining unchanged in 2008 (see Table 3). Consumer prices rose over this period, increasing 1.1 percent in 2009 after increasing 5.5 percent in 2008 (see Table 5). 1 These estimates are based on limited source data and are subject to revision. On May 5, 2010, BEA released estimates of GDP for the period 2002 to 2007 for Guam, as well as for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 3 In this news release, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.” 2 - more - - 2Revisions Estimates for 2002 to 2007 that were released on May 5, 2010 have been revised in order to incorporate improvements to source data and estimation methodologies; these improvements include the following: • Improving the methodology for measuring petroleum imports by incorporating information on liquid fuel tax revenue from Guam’s Territorial Highway Fund. • Incorporating improved source data for estimating federal government spending, including military compensation. • Updating territorial government spending to reflect restated revenues and expenses as reported in audited annual financial statements. The overall growth in the revised estimates is similar to that of the previously published estimates. From 2002 to 2007, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent; in the previously published estimates, the rate of change was 1.8 percent. Over the 2002 to 2007 period, real GDP growth peaked in 2004 and experienced a significant contraction in 2006. Percent changes in real GDP from the preceding year -- revised and as published in last year's release -- are shown in Table 7. Methodology In constructing the estimates for Guam, BEA used methodologies consistent with the methods used to estimate U.S. GDP. Information from the Economic Census of Island Areas was used to establish benchmark levels of GDP for the years 2002 and 2007. For other years, annual series were developed and used to estimate GDP. Because Guam is not included in most of the major surveys used by BEA to estimate U.S. GDP, the support of government leaders in Guam and the assistance provided by the Guam Bureau of Statistics and Plans, the Guam Department of Revenue and Taxation, the Guam Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Guam Bureau of Budget and Management Research were critical to the successful production of the estimates presented in this release. BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry statistics; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. - more - Guam Table 1. Gross Domestic Product [Millions of dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 3,314 3,435 3,717 4,003 4,004 4,141 4,255 4,491 Personal consumption expenditures 2 2,348 2,182 2,362 2,588 2,662 2,784 2,936 2,924 Private fixed investment 3 137 166 152 145 164 217 252 237 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -854 635 74 561 1,489 1,357 132 -824 574 73 501 1,398 1,257 141 -812 759 71 688 1,572 1,413 158 -908 -1,081 -1,351 -1,544 -1,486 858 838 829 803 720 70 80 115 133 98 788 759 714 670 622 1,766 1,919 2,180 2,347 2,206 1,579 1,733 1,949 2,091 1,965 187 186 231 256 241 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 11 12 13 1,684 1,002 682 1,911 1,199 712 2,016 1,295 721 2,179 1,385 794 Gross domestic product NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. 2,259 1,410 849 2,490 1,580 911 2,612 1,698 914 2,816 1,856 960 Guam Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars [Millions of chained (2005) dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 3,589 3,615 3,879 4,003 3,850 3,879 3,899 3,966 Personal consumption expenditures 2 2,490 2,286 2,450 2,588 2,557 2,603 2,602 2,563 Private fixed investment 3 156 185 161 145 155 200 228 219 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -1,041 763 86 677 1,804 1,648 157 -970 662 82 580 1,632 1,472 160 -874 822 77 745 1,696 1,526 170 -908 -1,016 -1,194 -1,237 -1,285 858 785 755 680 606 70 75 101 104 82 788 710 654 575 523 1,766 1,800 1,949 1,918 1,891 1,579 1,627 1,740 1,699 1,690 187 173 209 219 202 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 11 12 13 1,959 1,175 782 2,110 1,332 777 2,143 1,379 764 2,179 1,385 794 Addenda: Population (thousands)1 Per capita real GDP (chained dollars) 14 15 Gross domestic product 2,154 1,341 813 2,275 1,442 833 2,310 1,503 808 2,474 1,643 831 161.1 163.6 166.1 168.6 171.0 173.5 175.9 177.9 22,278 22,097 23,353 23,743 22,515 22,357 22,166 22,293 1. Source: 2008 Guam Statistical Yearbook; U.S. Census Bureau, International Database Guam Table 3. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 0.7 7.3 3.2 -3.8 0.8 0.5 1.7 Personal consumption expenditures 2 -8.2 7.2 5.6 -1.2 1.8 0.0 -1.5 Private fixed investment 3 19.0 -13.1 -10.2 7.2 29.0 14.1 -4.1 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 …….. -13.2 -3.7 -14.4 -9.5 -10.6 2.0 …….. 24.1 -6.4 28.5 3.9 3.6 6.1 …….. 4.4 -9.0 5.8 4.1 3.5 9.9 …….. -8.5 6.7 -9.9 1.9 3.0 -7.3 …….. -3.8 34.8 -7.9 8.3 6.9 20.9 …….. -9.9 3.2 -12.1 -1.6 -2.3 4.6 …….. -10.9 -21.0 -9.0 -1.4 -0.6 -7.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 11 12 13 7.7 13.3 -0.6 1.6 3.5 -1.7 1.7 0.4 3.9 -1.1 -3.2 2.5 5.6 7.5 2.5 1.6 4.3 -3.1 7.1 9.3 3.0 Guam Table 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures 1 0.7 7.3 3.2 -3.8 0.8 0.5 1.7 2 -5.77 4.57 3.57 -0.77 1.19 -0.02 -1.01 Private fixed investment 3 0.78 -0.64 -0.42 0.26 1.19 0.74 -0.23 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1.75 -2.54 -0.08 -2.46 4.29 4.37 -0.08 2.49 4.13 -0.14 4.27 -1.64 -1.38 -0.26 -0.86 0.91 -0.18 1.09 -1.78 -1.35 -0.43 -2.72 -1.85 0.12 -1.97 -0.86 -1.21 0.35 -4.80 -0.79 0.71 -1.50 -4.01 -3.04 -0.97 -1.15 -2.03 0.09 -2.13 0.88 1.14 -0.26 -1.29 -2.03 -0.62 -1.41 0.74 0.27 0.47 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 11 12 13 3.95 4.08 -0.13 0.89 1.25 -0.36 0.91 0.15 0.76 -0.61 -1.10 0.49 3.19 2.66 0.53 0.94 1.63 -0.69 4.27 3.64 0.63 Guam Table 5. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures 2002 2003 1 …….. 2.9 2 …….. 1.2 3 92.3 95.0 4 94.3 95.4 2004 0.8 2005 2006 2007 [Percent] 4.4 4.0 2008 2009 2.6 2.2 3.7 1.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 [Index numbers, 2005=100] 95.8 100.0 104.0 106.8 5.5 1.1 109.1 113.2 107.0 112.8 114.1 96.4 100.0 104.1 Table 6. Gross Domestic Income [Millions of dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Gross domestic income 1 3,314 3,435 3,717 4,003 4,004 4,141 4,255 4,491 Compensation of employees 2 2,181 2,410 2,470 2,583 2,675 2,844 3,029 3,178 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies 3 98 127 154 163 165 194 183 175 Gross operating surplus 4 1,035 898 1,093 1,257 1,164 1,103 1,043 1,138 2005 2006 2007 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real GDP Line 2003 2004 Percent change: Revised Previously published 1 2 0.7 -0.2 7.3 8.1 3.2 4.2 -3.8 -3.4 0.8 0.7 Percentage points: Revision 3 0.9 -0.8 -1.0 -0.4 0.1