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SUMMARY TABLES (Dollar amounts in billions) 2005 Budget Totals: Receipts ....................................................... Outlays ......................................................... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2,154 2,472 2,285 2,709 2,416 2,770 2,590 2,814 2,714 2,922 2,878 3,061 3,035 3,240 ..................................................... 318 423 354 223 208 183 205 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) .............. 12,290 13,030 13,761 14,521 15,296 16,102 16,955 Budget Totals as a Percent of GDP: Receipts ....................................................... Outlays ......................................................... 17.5% 20.1% 17.5% 20.8% 17.6% 20.1% 17.8% 19.4% 17.7% 19.1% 17.9% 19.0% 17.9% 19.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–1. Budget Totals 1.2% Deficit Deficit ..................................................... 313 314 Table S–2. Discretionary Totals (Net budget authority; dollar amounts in billions) 2006 2007 Enacted Request Change: 2006–2007 Dollar Percent Discretionary budget authority: Department of Defense ......................................................................................... Homeland Security (non-Department of Defense) ...................................... Other Operations of Government ...................................................................... 410.8 32.1 400.4 439.3 33.1 398.3 28.5 1.0 2.2 6.9% 3.3% 0.5% Total, Discretionary budget authority ............................................................. 843.3 870.7 27.3 3.2% Enacted supplemental and emergency funding: Global War on Terror .............................................................................................. Hurricane Response 1 .......................................................................................... Pandemic Influenza Preparedness ................................................................... 50.0 4.6 3.8 Total, Enacted supplemental and emergency funding .......................... 58.4 Estimated future emergency requests: 2 Global War on Terror ............................................................................................. Hurricane Response ............................................................................................. Pandemic Influenza Preparedness .................................................................. 70.0 18.0 — 50.0 — 2.3 Total, Estimated future emergency requests .............................................. 88.0 52.3 1 2 In total, $84.5 billion has been provided in 2005 and 2006 for response to the Gulf Coast Hurricanes through both discretionary and mandatory emergency funding, including amounts for the Social Services Block Grant and Flood Insurance. Estimated future emergency needs are included as Allowances in the 2007 Budget. The Administration anticipates transmitting official requests for these funds at a later time. SUMMARY TABLES (Net budget authority; dollar amounts in billions) Growth: Agency 2001 Actual 2006 2007 Enacted Request 2006–2007 Dollar Agriculture..................................................................................................... Commerce .................................................................................................... Defense ......................................................................................................... Education ...................................................................................................... Energy ............................................................................................................ Health and Human Services .................................................................. Homeland Security .................................................................................... Housing and Urban Development ........................................................ Interior ............................................................................................................ Justice ............................................................................................................ Labor............................................................................................................... State and Other International Programs............................................ Transportation.............................................................................................. Treasury ......................................................................................................... Veterans Affairs........................................................................................... Corps of Engineers ................................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency ........................................................ Executive Office of the President ......................................................... Judicial Branch ............................................................................................ Legislative Branch...................................................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ............................ National Science Foundation ................................................................. Social Security Administration............................................................... Other Agencies ........................................................................................... Total, Discretionary Spending .............................................................. Percent Average Cumulative 2001–2007 2001–2007 19.2 5.1 302.5 40.1 20.0 54.0 14.0 28.4 10.3 18.4 11.9 21.7 14.6 10.3 22.4 4.7 7.8 0.3 4.0 2.8 14.3 4.4 6.0 6.7 21.1 6.4 410.8 56.5 23.5 69.2 30.5 34.3 10.8 21.0 11.3 30.2 14.6 11.5 33.1 5.3 7.6 0.3 5.3 3.8 16.3 5.6 7.3 6.9 19.7 6.1 439.3 54.4 23.6 67.6 30.9 33.6 10.1 19.5 10.9 33.9 13.2 11.6 35.7 4.7 7.3 0.3 5.9 4.3 16.8 6.0 7.9 7.3 1.4 0.2 28.5 2.1 0.0 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.4 3.7 1.4 0.1 2.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 6.5% 3.7% 6.9% 3.8% 0.1% 2.3% 1.3% 1.8% 5.9% 7.2% 3.9% 12.2% 9.4% 0.5% 8.0% 11.2% 4.0% 0.6% 9.9% 12.1% 3.2% 7.9% 6.8% 6.0% 0.4% 3.1% 6.4% 5.2% 2.7% 3.8% 14.1% 2.9% 0.2% 1.0% 1.5% 7.7% 1.6% 1.9% 8.1% 0.2% 1.1% 4.0% 6.7% 7.6% 2.8% 5.2% 4.5% 1.5% 2.5% 20.4% 45.2% 35.7% 17.6% 25.2% 121.0% 18.7% 1.2% 6.0% 8.7% 55.8% 9.3% 12.3% 59.5% 1.0% 6.6% 26.4% 47.9% 55.1% 17.8% 35.9% 30.2% 9.3% 643.8 843.3 870.7 27.3 3.2% 5.2% THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–3. Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority by Major Agency 35.2% Note: Supplementals and emergencies, both enacted and anticipated, are excluded. 315 316 Table S–4. Discretionary Funding By Appropriations Subcommittee (Net budget authority in billions of dollars) 2006 2007 Change Enacted Request 2006–2007 Appropriations Subcommittee Agriculture and Rural Development .................................................................................... Defense ......................................................................................................................................... Energy and Water Development........................................................................................... Foreign Operations .................................................................................................................... Homeland Security .................................................................................................................... Interior and Environment ......................................................................................................... Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education ..................................................... Legislative Branch...................................................................................................................... Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs ...................................................................... Science, State, Justice, and Commerce ............................................................................ Transportation, Treasury, Housing and Urban Development, Judiciary, and District of Columbia............................................................................................................... Allowances ................................................................................................................................... Total, excluding supplemental and emergency funding ................................ 18.5 399.2 30.1 20.7 30.5 25.9 141.8 3.8 45.2 58.7 17.2 423.2 29.4 23.7 30.9 25.2 137.8 4.2 52.5 59.7 1.3 24.0 0.7 3.0 0.4 0.8 4.0 0.5 7.3 1.0 68.8 — 67.1 0.4 1.8 0.4 843.3 870.7 27.3 Notes: Supplementals and emergencies, both enacted and anticipated, are excluded. The House and Senate adopted different spending committee structures in the 2006 appropriations season. This table is consistent with the structures in which the 2006 appropriations bills were enacted. SUMMARY TABLES (Budget authority in millions of dollars) 2006 Enacted Supplemental 2007 Request Homeland Security Funding: Agriculture .......................................................................................................... Commerce .......................................................................................................... Defense-Military (DOD) 1 ............................................................................ Energy ................................................................................................................. Health and Human Services ....................................................................... Homeland Security.......................................................................................... Interior.................................................................................................................. Justice .................................................................................................................. State ..................................................................................................................... Transportation ................................................................................................... Treasury .............................................................................................................. Veterans Affairs ................................................................................................ Corps of Engineers ......................................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency ............................................................. General Services Administration ............................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. National Science Foundation ...................................................................... Smithsonian Institution .................................................................................. Social Security Administration .................................................................... Other Agencies................................................................................................. Total, Homeland Security Funding 2 ...................................................... 564 181 16,441 1,704 4,300 25,503 56 2,976 1,107 182 117 310 72 129 99 213 344 83 177 304 54,862 — — — — — 173 — 16 — — — — — — — — — — — — 189 650 218 16,699 1,700 4,565 27,776 55 3,279 1,213 206 134 314 43 183 96 203 387 80 184 297 58,282 Less, Defense-Military (DOD) ..................................................................... Less, Mandatory Homeland Security Funding 3 ................................. Less, Discretionary Fee-Funded Activities 4 ........................................ Net Non-DOD Discretionary Homeland Security 2 .......................... 16,441 2,232 4,127 32,062 — — — 189 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–5. Homeland Security Funding By Agency 16,699 2,455 6,019 33,109 1 2 3 4 317 Reported DOD homeland security funding has been revised upward in all years to reflect better estimating methodologies for DOD homeland security programs. See the Homeland Security Funding Analysis chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume for more details. Amounts are rounded to the nearest million at the account level, which accounts for any discrepancies with the Homeland Security Funding Analysis chapter in the Analytical Perspectives volume. Mandatory homeland security programs include Agriculture Quarantine and Inspections, Border Protection, and Immigration Enforcement. Discretionary fee-funded homeland security programs include Visa Processing, Airport Security, and Social Security physical and computer security measures. 318 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals (In millions of dollars) 2006 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — 1,081 76 1,079 154 945 155 965 159 917 162 4,988 706 8,933 1,585 — — — 1,157 1 1,234 1 1,101 1 1,125 1 1,080 4 5,698 9 10,527 — 1 50 72 80 96 299 347 — 20 40 50 50 50 210 460 — — — — — 2,452 723 2 22 3,155 5,485 876 1 5 6,357 7,948 1,062 3 55 8,958 9,343 1,116 5 27 10,491 10,663 1,168 6 61 11,898 35,891 4,945 17 6 40,859 105,016 11,859 60 1 116,936 — — — — 3,502 3,502 2 2 503 503 3 3 4,010 4,010 4,025 4,025 — — 3,502 2 503 3 4,010 4,025 — — — — — 1 7 23 5 36 28 10 23 27 3,590 40 10 23 27 102 42 10 23 27 605 71 10 23 24 131 182 47 115 110 4,464 351 97 230 209 4,912 SUMMARY TABLES Reforms Resulting in Savings: Agriculture: Commodity Program changes .................................................... Restrict Food Stamp categorical eligibility ............................. Allow State Food Stamp agencies to access the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) ............................................. Subtotal, Agriculture .............................................................. Defense: Increase National Defense Stockpile Sales ........................... Energy: Repeal Oil and Gas Research and Development Program .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services: Medicare ............................................................................................. Medicaid/State Children’s Health Insurance Program ....... Child Support Enforcement ......................................................... Child Welfare Program option ..................................................... Subtotal, Health and Human Services ................................ Interior: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge lease bonuses: State of Alaska’s share: Receipts ..................................................................................... Expenditures ............................................................................ Federal share: Receipts ..................................................................................... Amend Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Land Sale Authority ......................................................................................... Eliminate BLM Range Improvement Fund ............................. Recover Pick-Sloan Project Cost............................................... Repeal Energy Bill Fee Prohibition ........................................... Subtotal, Interior .......................................................................... 2007 (In millions of dollars) 2006 Labor: Reform Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation .................... Unemployment Insurance Integrity legislation: Benefit Payment Recoveries ................................................... Reform Federal Employee’s Compensation Act .................. Subtotal, Labor............................................................................. Treasury: Eliminate 10-year Statute-of-Limitations on Non-Tax Debt.................................................................................................. Federal Communications Commission (FCC): Extend Spectrum Auction Authority .......................................... Terminate the Telecommunications Development Fund ... Subtotal, FCC ............................................................................... Office of Personnel Management: Amend Federal Employee Health Benefits Program Statute ............................................................................................. Total, Reforms Resulting in Savings .................................... User Fee Proposals: Agriculture: Food Safety and Inspection Service User Fees* ................. Grain Inspection User Fees* ....................................................... Animal Plant Health Inspection User Fees* ........................... Agricultural Marketing Service User Fees* ............................ Federal Crop Insurance User Fees* ......................................... Health and Human Services: FDA User Fee Proposal* .............................................................. Homeland Security: Extend Customs User Fees......................................................... Treasury: Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau User Fees* . 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — 4,195 4,181 4,164 4,140 16,680 37,056 — — — — 3 3 482 8 4,685 515 10 4,706 365 11 4,540 376 13 4,529 1,738 45 18,463 3,774 140 40,970 — 11 6 6 6 6 35 65 — — — — 5 5 — 5 5 — 6 6 — 7 7 — 7 7 — 30 30 1,000 65 1,065 — — 34 4,422 134 16,101 231 15,233 306 17,210 367 18,164 1,072 71,130 3,431 178,713 — — — — — 105 20 8 2 — 155 20 11 2 15 148 21 11 2 15 151 21 12 2 15 154 22 12 2 15 713 104 54 10 60 1,535 220 117 20 135 — 26 27 27 28 28 135 286 — — — — — — — 5,830 — 29 29 29 29 29 145 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals—Continued 290 319 320 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals—Continued (In millions of dollars) 2006 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Pesticide Fees*................................................................................. Pre-Manufacturing Notification Fee*......................................... FCC: Authorize Spectrum License Fees ............................................ Total, User Fee Proposals ....................................................... 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — 56 4 66 8 53 8 53 8 53 8 281 36 546 76 — — 50 300 150 483 300 614 300 619 400 723 1,200 2,739 3,625 12,680 — 4,722 16,584 15,847 17,829 18,887 73,869 191,393 — 47 96 145 149 152 589 1,415 — — — — — — — 200 — — — — 1,227 100 250 40 686 100 375 149 539 100 493 425 425 100 506 473 601 100 523 488 3,478 500 2,146 1,575 6,773 1,000 5,000 4,070 — 5 6 6 6 6 29 65 69 95 24 — — — 119 119 — — 3 5 7 9 24 85 — 69 70 1,834 75 1,514 74 1,787 — 1,666 — 1,879 219 8,679 219 18,946 SUMMARY TABLES Subtotal, Reforms Resulting in Savings and User Fee Proposals ......................................................................................... Program Augmentations: Agriculture: Exclude retirement savings in Food Stamp Program ......... Energy: Bonneville Power Administration borrowing authority ........ Health and Human Services: Medicaid/State Children’s Health Insurance Program ....... Cover the Kids outreach grants .................................................. Grants to States for chronically ill .............................................. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ............................. Foster Care District of Columbia Federal Medical Assistance Percentage Rate .................................................. Treasury: Extend the Rum Carryover for Puerto Rico ........................... Office of Personnel Management: Make Changes to Federal Retirement Improvement Act .. Social Security Administration: Extend Supplemental Security Income eligibility for refugees.......................................................................................... Total, Program Augmentations ............................................... 2007 (In millions of dollars) 2006 User Fee Proposals with Mandatory Spending: Marketing Agreements and Orders User Fees: Receipts .............................................................................................. Spending............................................................................................. Net effect ........................................................................................ Increase Indian Gaming Commission Fees 1 ........................... Foreign Labor Certification User Fees: Receipts .............................................................................................. Spending............................................................................................. Net effect ........................................................................................ Immigration Examination Fees: Receipts .............................................................................................. Spending............................................................................................. Net effect ........................................................................................ Army Corps of Engineers: Additional Recreation User Fees and Contributions: Receipts.......................................................................................... Spending ........................................................................................ Net effect ................................................................................... Total, User Fee Proposals with Mandatory Spending........................................................................... Subtotal, Including Program Augmentations and User Fee Proposals with Mandatory Spending ........ Further Hurricane Response: National Flood Insurance (emergency)........................................ 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — — — 12 12 — — 12 12 — 4 13 13 — 5 13 13 — 5 13 13 — 5 63 63 — 19 132 132 — 44 — — — 35 35 — 35 35 — 35 35 — 35 35 — 35 35 — 175 175 — 350 350 — — — — 31 25 6 31 31 — 31 31 — 31 31 — 31 31 — 155 149 6 310 304 6 — — — 9 — 9 17 8 9 17 16 1 17 17 — 17 17 — 77 58 19 162 143 19 — 15 5 4 5 5 6 19 69 2,903 15,075 14,056 16,158 17,003 65,196 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals—Continued 172,428 5,040 560 — — — — 560 560 ................... — — — — 24,182 57,429 81,611 712,144 Outlay Effects of Tax Proposals: 1 Health Tax Credit.................................................................................. Child Tax Credit .................................................................................... Earned Income Tax Credit ................................................................ Total, Outlay Effects of Tax Proposals ..................................... — — — — 720 — 188 532 1,250 383 4 871 1,679 368 68 1,243 1,876 422 79 1,375 2,015 427 69 1,519 7,540 1,600 400 5,540 19,778 3,897 903 14,978 Social Security Personal Accounts (off-budget) 321 322 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals—Continued (In millions of dollars) 2006 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 1,220 1,220 — 1,203 1,203 — 1,175 1,175 — 1,140 1,140 — 1,098 1,098 — 1,049 1,049 — 5,665 5,665 — 10,138 10,138 — — — — 2,282 2,282 — 450 450 — 453 453 — 461 461 — 470 470 — 448 448 — 3,069 3,069 — — — — 78 78 — 303 303 — 179 179 — 120 120 — 97 97 — 777 777 — 777 777 — — 11 84 150 155 159 559 1,461 — — — — 133 294 427 2,431 — — 8 171 35 203 50 205 63 205 72 205 228 989 402 2,014 6 — — — — — — — — — 28 — 86 58 139 124 182 129 220 135 655 446 2,035 1,215 — 49 61 53 48 45 256 439 SUMMARY TABLES Other Mandatory Proposals: Use Escrow Account for USPS Retiree Health Benefits: On-budget effect .............................................................................. Off-budget effect .............................................................................. Unified budget effect .................................................................. Refinance Black Lung Disability Trust Fund debt: Black Lung Disability Trust Fund................................................ Interest receipts on repayable advances ................................ Net effect ........................................................................................ County Payments Safety Net: County Payments ............................................................................ National Forest Land Sales ......................................................... Net effect ........................................................................................ Full-time Attendance Required for Child’s Social Security Benefits at age 16 (off-budget) ................................................... Enforcement of Windfall Elimination Provision/Government Pension Offset (off-budget) .......................................................... Replace Disability Insurance/Worker’s Comp Offset with Uniform Offset (off-budget) .......................................................... Eliminate Lump Sum Death Benefit (off-budget)...................... Correct trust accounting deficiencies in individual Indian money investments (non-paygo) ................................................ Indirect Effects (Third Scorecard): Amend Federal Employee Health Benefits Program statute.............................................................................................. Unemployment Insurance Integrity legislation ...................... Food Stamp Impact of Commodity Supplemental Food Program elimination ................................................................... 2007 (In millions of dollars) 2006 Refine Department of Defense Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Accrual Calculation ........................................... Temporary Assistance for Needy Families impact of Social Services Block Grant reduction and Other........... Subtotal, Indirect Effects ...................................................... Total, Other Mandatory Proposals ............................... Grand Total .............................................................................................. Memorandum: Savings Net of Program Augmentations Medicaid/State Children’s Health Insurance Program ........... Food Stamp Program ......................................................................... 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 2007–2011 2007–2016 — 73 77 82 87 92 411 967 — — 6 108 258 68 20 186 136 116 34 371 29 159 397 12 210 520 29 847 1,356 84 2,142 4,166 5,115 1,744 14,339 13,182 9,004 41,426 21,166 551,103 — — 504 29 190 59 523 11 691 11 567 11 1,467 121 5,086 179 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–6. Mandatory Proposals—Continued * Once the fees are enacted, the Administration will work to reclassify them to offset discretionary spending beginning in 2008. 1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here. Excludes tax extenders assumed in the baseline. 323 324 Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts (In millions of dollars) 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 2007–2011 2007–2016 288 — — — — — — 571 — — — — — — 1,329 — 4,679 — — — — 14,161 14,183 6,498 — — — — 537 5,519 4,872 — — — 3 6,545 6,606 3,853 66,918 5,452 4,968 1,098 22,001 26,308 19,902 66,918 5,452 4,968 1,095 128,050 74,931 32,620 605,961 116,691 37,578 10,960 205 — — 1,102 — — 1,728 — — 2,181 — — 2,676 — 5 23,758 346 170 31,445 346 165 339,022 2,858 4,362 83 531 7,736 37,023 13,596 119,714 178,600 1,353,033 — — — — 4,796 — — 4,796 10,407 542 134 9,731 7,507 579 286 6,642 3,970 618 326 3,026 383 1,826 300 2,509 26,297 3,565 1,046 21,686 122 20,063 1,763 21,948 — 2,522 3,527 2,625 2,037 1,645 12,356 18,713 — 1,978 4,321 6,201 7,720 8,826 29,046 87,212 — 2,519 3,815 3,840 3,691 3,668 17,533 38,127 — — 254 1 861 3 1,194 4 1,404 5 1,362 5 5,075 18 11,154 51 SUMMARY TABLES Make Permanent Certain Tax Cuts Enacted in 2001 and 2003 (assumed in the baseline): Dividends tax rate structure ................................................. Capital gains tax rate structure........................................... Expensing for small business.............................................. Marginal individual income tax rate reductions ............ Child tax credit 1 ..................................................................... Marriage penalty relief 2 ....................................................... Education incentives .............................................................. Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes ............................. Modifications of pension plans ........................................... Other incentives for families and children ....................... Total make permanent certain tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 ....................................................... Tax Incentives: Simplify and encourage saving: Expand tax-free savings opportunities ............................ Consolidate employer-based savings accounts ........... Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) .... Total simplify and encourage saving........................ Encourage entrepreneurship and investment: Increase expensing for small business ............................ Invest in health care: Expand health savings accounts (HSAs) 3 ................... Provide an above-the-line deduction for high-deductible insurance premiums 4 ...................... Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 5 .............................................................. Improve the Health Coverage Tax Credit 6 ................... 2007 (In millions of dollars) 2006 Allow the orphan drug tax credit for certain pre-designation expenses 7 ........................................... Total invest in health care ............................................ Provide incentives for charitable giving: Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions.......................................................................... Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory ............ Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations ............................................................. Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts .............................................. Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property ................................. Repeal the $150 million limitation on qualified 501(c)(3) bonds ................................................................... Repeal certain restrictions on the use of qualified 501(c)(3) bonds for residential rental property ......... Total provide incentives for charitable giving ........ Strengthen education: Extend the above-the-line deduction for qualified out-of pocket classroom expenses ............................... Provide assistance to distressed areas: Establish Opportunity Zones ............................................... Protect the environment: Extend permanently expensing of brownfields remediation costs ................................................................ Restructure assistance to New York City: Provide tax incentives for transportation infrastructure ......................................................................... 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — — 4,752 — 9,000 — 11,239 — 12,820 — 13,861 — 51,672 — 136,544 — 102 510 512 501 497 2,122 4,706 — 44 96 106 116 127 489 1,345 — 56 85 90 96 102 429 1,074 — 1 6 6 6 6 25 62 — 3 15 21 25 28 92 301 — 2 3 6 10 11 32 81 — — 2 210 5 720 9 750 16 770 24 795 56 3,245 278 7,847 17 171 178 180 183 185 897 1,867 — 221 411 439 451 482 2,004 4,960 98 146 163 177 168 157 811 1,503 — 200 200 200 200 200 1,000 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued 2,000 325 326 Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued (In millions of dollars) 2006 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — 115 200 — 3,226 200 — 4,268 200 — 8,768 200 — 13,403 200 — 19,634 1,000 — 49,299 2,000 — 193,382 — 17 66 50 32 48 213 395 — 27 24 21 26 28 72 207 — — — 44 — 42 — 29 — 6 — 20 — 141 — 188 3 — — 53 536 — 62 2,290 3 77 153 9 89 2,336 17 100 1,611 24 381 1,274 53 1,039 9,180 274 3 589 2,349 85 2,264 1,535 946 8,415 — — 1 6 2 8 2 8 3 8 3 8 11 38 26 89 — 3 8 8 9 9 37 91 — — — — 2 82 4 98 14 141 12 185 30 148 13 209 43 155 14 232 41 163 20 244 130 689 63 968 201 1,635 222 2,264 SUMMARY TABLES Repeal certain New York City Liberty Zone incentives Total restructure assistance to New York City ...... Total tax incentives ................................................ Simplify the Tax Laws for Families: Clarify uniform definition of a child 8 .................................... Simplify EITC eligibility requirement regarding filing status, presence of children, and work and immigration status 9 ............................................................... Reduce computational complexity of refundable child tax credit 10 ............................................................................... Total simplify the tax laws for families .......................... Strengthen the Employer-Based Pension System: Ensure fair treatment of older workers in cash balance conversions and protect defined benefit plans ............. Strengthen funding for single-employer pension plans .. Reflect market interest rates in lump sum payments ...... Total strengthen the employer-based pension system ................................................................................ Close Loopholes and Improve Tax Compliance: Combat abusive foreign tax credit transactions ................ Modify the active trade or business test .............................. Impose penalties on charities that fail to enforce conservation easements ....................................................... Eliminate the special exclusion from unrelated business taxable income for gain or loss on the sale or exchange of certain brownfields ........................................ Limit related party interest deductions ................................. Clarify and simplify qualified tuition programs ................... Total close loopholes and improve tax compliance 2007 (In millions of dollars) 2006 Tax Administration, Unemployment Insurance, and Other: Improve tax administration: Implement IRS administrative reforms and initiate cost saving measures 11 .................................................. Reduce the tax gap................................................................. Total improve tax administration .................................... Strengthen financial integrity of unemployment insurance: Strengthen the financial integrity of the unemployment insurance system by reducing improper benefit payments and tax avoidance 12 .. Extend unemployment insurance surtax 12 ................... Total strengthen integrity of unemployment insurance 12 ...................................................................... Other proposals: Increase Indian gaming activity fees ................................ Total tax administration, unemployment insurance, and other 12 ........................................................................ Modify Energy Policy Act of 2005: Repeal reduced recovery period for natural gas distribution lines ....................................................................... Modify amortization for certain geological and geophysical expenditures ..................................................... Total modify Energy Policy Act of 2005....................... Promote Trade: Implement free trade agreements 12 ..................................... Extend GSP 12 .............................................................................. Total promote trade 12 ............................................................. 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total 2011 2007–2011 2007–2016 — — — — 259 259 — 351 351 — 311 311 — 296 296 — 308 308 — 1,525 1,525 — 3,560 3,560 — — — — 31 1,085 30 1,490 106 1,526 143 1,564 188 5,665 2,246 710 — — 1,116 1,520 1,420 1,421 5,477 1,536 — — 5 5 5 5 20 45 — 259 1,472 1,836 1,721 1,734 7,022 2,069 — 12 44 80 112 125 373 833 — — 38 50 140 184 206 286 169 281 88 213 641 1,014 730 1,563 — — — 236 412 648 456 617 1,073 593 666 1,259 741 723 1,464 832 786 1,618 2,858 3,204 6,062 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued 8,200 3,445 11,645 327 328 Table S–7. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued (In millions of dollars) Extend Expiring Provisions: Minimum tax relief for individuals....................................... Research & Experimentation (R&E) tax credit ............. Combined work opportunity/welfare-to-work tax credit ........................................................................................ First-time homebuyer credit for DC ................................... Authority to issue Qualified Zone Academy Bonds ..... Disclosure of tax return information related to terrorist activity 7 ................................................................. Excise tax on coal 12 ............................................................... Total extend expiring provisions 12 ............................ Total budget proposals, including proposals assumed in the baseline 12 .......................................... Total budget proposals, excluding proposals assumed in the baseline 12 .......................................... 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 2006 2007 13,664 2,097 20,495 4,601 — 5,944 — 6,889 — 7,669 — 8,340 20,495 33,443 20,495 86,440 80 1 3 144 18 8 86 — 13 25 — 18 7 — 20 3 — 20 265 18 79 266 18 179 — — 15,845 — — 25,266 — — 6,043 — — 6,932 — — 7,696 — — 8,363 — — 54,300 — 750 106,648 15,874 28,631 14,888 51,707 36,183 148,653 280,062 1,667,039 15,957 28,100 7,152 14,684 22,587 28,939 101,462 314,006 2007–2011 2007–2016 1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $45 million for 2011 and $51,809 million for 2007–2016. Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$371 million for 2011 and $7,346 million for 2007–2016. 3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $91 million for 2007, $178 million for 2008, $253 million for 2009, $310 million for 2010, $352 million for 2011, $1,184 million for 2007–2011 and $3,500 million for 2007–2016. 4 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $244 million for 2007, $315 million for 2008, $319 million for 2009, $303 million for 2010, $305 million for 2011, $1,486 million for 2007–2011 and $3,200 million for 2007–2016. 5 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $381 million for 2007, $747 million for 2008, $1,095 million for 2009, $1,249 million for 2010, $1,343 million for 2011, $4,815 million for 2007–2011 and $12,939 million for 2007–2016. 6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $4 million for 2007, $10 million for 2008, $12 million for 2009, $14 million for 2010, $15 million for 2011, $55 million for 2007–2011 and $139 million for 2007–2016. 7 No net budgetary impact. 8 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$170 million for 2008, -$196 million for 2009, -$250 million for 2010, -$234 million for 2011, -$850 million for 2007–2011 and -$2,224 million for 2007–2016. 9 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$188 million for 2007, $123 million for 2008, $102 million for 2009, $96 million for 2010, $95 million for 2011, $228 million for 2007–2011 and $687 million for 2007–2016. 10 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is -$332 million for 2008, -$342 million for 2009, -$347 million for 2010, -$357 million for 2011, -$1,378 million for 2007–2011 and -$3,263 million for 2007–2016. 11 Outlays from this proposal will be reflected in the Financial Management Service’s budget. 12 Net of income offsets. 2 SUMMARY TABLES (In billions of dollars) Source Individual income taxes............................... Corporation income taxes .......................... Social insurance and retirement receipts ......................................................... (On-budget) ................................................ (Off-budget) ................................................ Excise taxes .................................................... Estate and gift taxes .................................... Customs duties .............................................. Miscellaneous receipts................................ 2005 Actual Estimate 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 927.2 278.3 997.6 277.1 1,096.4 260.6 1,208.5 268.5 1,268.4 277.1 1,370.1 282.0 1,466.9 292.0 794.1 (216.6) (577.5) 73.1 24.8 23.4 33.0 841.1 (231.1) (610.0) 73.5 27.5 25.9 42.8 884.1 (241.8) (642.3) 74.6 23.7 28.1 48.4 932.1 (253.0) (679.1) 75.9 24.4 31.4 49.4 980.7 (264.5) (716.2) 77.5 26.0 31.7 52.7 1,037.4 (278.9) (758.5) 78.9 20.1 34.0 55.7 1,096.7 (295.1) (801.6) 83.1 1.6 36.2 58.4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–8. Receipts By Source—Summary Total receipts .......................................... 2,153.9 2,285.5 2,415.9 2,590.3 2,714.2 2,878.2 3,034.9 (On-budget) ............................................ (1,576.4) (1,675.5) (1,773.5) (1,911.1) (1,998.0) (2,119.7) (2,233.3) (Off-budget) ............................................ (577.5) (610.0) (642.3) (679.1) (716.2) (758.5) (801.6) 329 330 Table S–9. Economic Assumptions (Fiscal years) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 12,290 6.5 3.6 2.8 13,030 6.0 3.4 2.5 13,761 5.6 3.3 2.2 14,521 5.5 3.3 2.2 15,296 5.3 3.2 2.1 16,102 5.3 3.1 2.1 16,955 5.3 3.1 2.1 .......................... 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 ............................... 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Interest rates: 91-day Treasury bill .................................. 10-year Treasury note ............................. 2.7 4.2 4.1 4.9 4.2 5.3 4.2 5.5 4.3 5.6 4.3 5.6 4.3 5.6 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Nominal level, in billions of dollars ..... Percent change 1 ..................................... Real GDP 1 ................................................. GDP price index 1 .................................... Consumer Price Index 1 Unemployment rate 2 2 1 2 Year-over-year percent change. Annual averages, percent. SUMMARY TABLES (Calendar years) Projections 2006 GDP (billions of current dollars): 2007 Budget...................................................................................... CBO January .................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .............................................. Real GDP (chain-weighted): 2 2007 Budget...................................................................................... CBO January .................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................... Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 2 2007 Budget...................................................................................... CBO January .................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................... Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 2 2007 Budget...................................................................................... CBO January .................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................... Unemployment rate: 3 2007 Budget...................................................................................... CBO January .................................................................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 1 ............................................... Interest rates: 3 91-day Treasury bills: 2007 Budget ................................................................................. CBO January................................................................................ Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .......................................... 10-year Treasury notes: 2007 Budget ................................................................................. CBO January................................................................................ Blue Chip Consensus January 1 .......................................... 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 2006–2011 2011 13,210 13,263 13,237 13,949 13,960 13,939 14,713 14,696 14,703 15,493 15,455 15,505 16,310 16,208 16,372 17,177 16,954 17,280 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–10. Comparison of Economic Assumptions 5.4 5.2 5.2 331 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Aspen Publishers, Inc. 1 January 2006 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2006 and 2007; Blue Chip October 2005 long-run extension for 2008—2011. 2 Year-over-year percent changes. 3 Annual averages, percent. 332 Table S–11. Budget Summary by Category (In billions of dollars) 2005 Outlays: Discretionary: DOD military........................................... Homeland security ............................... Other ......................................................... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 473 30 465 510 32 490 503 34 492 471 35 473 471 36 468 484 38 461 499 40 455 Total,Discretionary........................... Mandatory: Social Security: Current program ............................... Personal accounts ........................... Medicare .................................................. Medicaid and SCHIP .......................... Other ......................................................... 968 1,032 1,029 980 975 983 994 519 — 294 187 320 550 — 338 198 370 581 — 387 205 320 612 — 399 218 332 645 — 421 233 355 683 24 447 250 367 722 57 489 270 386 Total, Mandatory .............................. Net Interest ................................................. 1,320 184 1,457 220 1,494 247 1,562 272 1,655 291 1,771 307 1,924 322 Total Outlays ................................................... Revenues ......................................................... Deficit ............................................................ 2,472 2,154 318 2,709 2,285 423 2,770 2,416 354 2,814 2,590 223 2,922 2,714 208 3,061 2,878 183 3,240 3,035 205 SUMMARY TABLES (In billions of dollars) 2005 Outlays: Discretionary: DOD military........................................... Homeland security ............................... Other ......................................................... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 473 30 465 480 32 486 440 34 488 438 35 484 445 35 493 456 36 498 472 38 507 Total, Discretionary ......................... Mandatory: Social Security ...................................... Medicare.................................................. Medicaid and SCHIP .......................... Other ......................................................... 968 998 962 957 973 990 1,017 519 294 187 320 550 338 198 365 581 390 205 319 612 405 219 340 645 429 234 359 683 457 251 371 723 500 270 390 Total, Mandatory .............................. Net Interest ................................................. 1,320 184 1,451 219 1,495 244 1,575 266 1,668 284 1,762 298 1,883 310 Total Outlays ................................................... Revenues ......................................................... 2,472 2,154 2,669 2,301 2,701 2,444 2,798 2,597 2,925 2,729 3,050 2,901 3,210 3,064 Deficit ............................................................ On-budget deficit ...................................... Off-budget surplus.................................... 318 494 175 367 549 182 257 449 192 201 416 216 196 428 233 149 402 252 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–12. Current Services Baseline Summary by Category 146 420 274 333 334 Table S–13. Federal Government Financing and Debt (In billions of dollars) Estimate Actual 2005 Financing: Unified budget deficit ( ) ....................................................................................... 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 423 354 223 208 183 205 2 * * * * * 1 1 17 1 — — 1 — — 1 — — 1 — — 1 — — 1 — — 1 5 11 16 12 18 1 19 0 19 0 19 0 21 1 Total, financing other than the change in debt held by the public 22 4 18 19 18 19 20 Total, requirement to borrow from the public................................. 297 427 373 242 226 201 225 Change in debt held by the public....................................................................... 297 427 373 242 226 201 225 Changes in Debt Subject to Limitation: Change in debt held by the public....................................................................... Change in debt held by Government accounts .............................................. Change in other factors .......................................................................................... 297 254 13 427 279 * 373 311 1 242 328 1 226 346 3 201 344 2 225 329 3 Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation ................................. 538 707 685 570 574 548 557 Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: Debt issued by Treasury ......................................................................................... Adjustment for discount, premium, and coverage 3 .................................... 7,879 8 8,586 8 9,270 8 9,841 8 10,413 6 10,959 4 11,514 3 ................................................. 7,871 8,578 9,262 9,833 10,407 10,955 11,512 Debt Outstanding, End of Year: Gross Federal debt: 5 Debt issued by Treasury .................................................................................... Debt issued by other agencies ........................................................................ 7,879 26 8,586 26 9,270 25 9,841 25 10,413 24 10,959 23 11,514 23 Total, gross Federal debt ............................................................................... 7,905 8,611 9,295 9,865 10,437 10,983 11,537 Financing other than the change in debt held by the public: Net purchases ( ) of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust ...................................................... Changes in: 1 Treasury operating cash balance ............................................................... Checks outstanding, etc. 2 .......................................................................... Seigniorage on coins ........................................................................................... Less: Net financing disbursements: Direct loan financing accounts .................................................................... Guaranteed loan financing accounts ........................................................ Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 4 SUMMARY TABLES 318 (In billions of dollars) Actual 2005 Held by: Debt held by Government accounts .............................................................. Debt held by the public 6 .................................................................................. As a percent of GDP ....................................................................................... 3,313 4,592 37.4% Estimate 2006 3,593 5,019 38.5% 2007 3,904 5,391 39.2% 2008 4,232 5,633 38.8% 2009 4,578 5,859 38.3% 2010 4,922 6,061 37.6% 2011 5,251 6,286 37.1% * $500 million or less. 1 A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also a means of financing a deficit and therefore also has a positive sign. 2 Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other liability accounts; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold. 3 Consists mainly of Federal Financing Bank debt (which is not subject to limit), the unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government account series securities. 4 The statutory debt limit is $8,184 billion, enacted on November 19, 2004. 5 Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at face value less unrealized discount (if any). 6 At the end of 2005, the Federal Reserve Banks held $736.4 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $3,855.9 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2007 Table S–13. Federal Government Financing and Debt—Continued 335