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BLS E conom ic G row th [M3@d]®Q System Used fo r P rojections to 1990 U.S Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics April 1982 Bulletin 2112 A 3 -' BLS Econom ic Growth Model System Used for Projections I© 1990 U.S. Department of Labor Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner April 1982 Bulletin 2112 For sale by fhe Supertendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $5.50 Preface This bulletin describes the Bureau of Labor Statistics current Economic Growth model which was used to develop the revised 1990 industry and occupational em ployment projections. It is intended primarily for those analysts who desire detailed information on the BLS projection methods, models, and techniques. The text covers the components of the Economic Growth sys tem used to develop these projections in the sequence of their application. The appendixes provide the de tailed equations used in the various model systems. The revised 1990 employment projections, based upon changed economic conditions and later data, were published in the August 1981 Monthly Labor Review.. The results of the earlier version of the 1990 projec tions were presented in three articles published in the Monthly Labor Review in December 1978 and April 1979. Earlier projections of industry and occupational em ployment for 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 are cited in the text. Industry employment projections are used as a basis for the occupational projections developed in the last part of the projections cycle. The occupation al projections are used in planning training programs and in counseling students and workers and by busi nesses for personnel planning and market research. The industry projections are used by business firms as a source of information in developing long-range capital investment programs and in anticipating changes in the structure of markets. This bulletin was prepared in the Office of Econom ic Growth and Employment Projections, under the su pervision of Ronald E. Kutscher, Assistant Commis sioner for Economic Growth and Employment Projec tions. The report was prepared by Richard Oliver. Howard Fullerton provided the explanation of labor force projections. Norman C. Saunders contributed the methodology on the macroeconomic projections. Ma terial on the techniques of projecting interindustry co efficients was provided by Karen Horowitz. Method ologies used in projecting the major final demand sec tors were provided by Arthur Andreassen, Betty Su, and David Frank. Valerie Personick developed the es timates of industry employment. Neal Rosenthal pre pared the section on occupational methodology and John Tschetter the section on areas of new develop ment. Marilyn Queen assisted in the preparation of the manuscript. Material in this publication is in the public domain and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced with out permission. Page Chapter 1. BLS projections system ................................................... 1 Current methodology........................................................................................................ 1 Chart 1. Employment projections system ....................................................... 3 Chapter 2. Aggregate labor force projections .......................... 4 Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 4 Data sources.......................................................................................................................4 Projecting labor force p attern s.............................. 4 Population projections .................................................................................................... 6 Projection of the total and civilian labor force ................................................................6 Interpreting the projections.............................................................................................. 7 Chapter 3. Aggregate economic projections........................................................................... 8 Assumptions of the macro projections...................... 8 10 Supply G N P ......................................... Income flow s........... ........................................................................................................11 Demand GNP ..................................................................................................................12 Price/wage se c to r................................ ..........................................................................13 Balancing the macro m o d e l...................... 13 Solving the macro model .................................................................... .13 Chapter 4. Final demand projections............................................................. 14 Assumptions .......................... 14 Personal consumption expenditures.............................. 15 Gross private domestic investm ent................................................................................. 17 Foreign tra d e ............................................................................................. 18 State and local government.............................................................................................20 Federal Government.................................. 21 Chapters. Intermediate demand projections........................................................................22 Changes from earlier BEA studies.................................................................. 22 Secondary products................................................................................ 22 Valuation of transactions................................................................................................ 23 Projecting coefficients .................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 6. Industry output and employment projections.................................................... 24 Factor demand model............................................ 24 Solving the m o d e l.................... 25 Disaggregation of results ................................................................................................ 26 v Contents—Continued Page Chapter 7. Occupational employment projections...............................................................27 Developing base year employment estimates and projections ...................................... 27 Wage and salary workers in OES survey industries....................................................... 27 Difficulties encountered using the OES survey ..............................................................28 Projecting the ratios in OES survey industries.............................. ..............................29 Wage and salary workers, non-OES survey industries ..................................................29 Projecting the ratios ............................... ........................... .......... ...............................29 Self-employed and unpaid family workers.................................. 30 Total occupational employment ................................................... .30 Chapter 8. Planned changes in the projection system ......................................................... 31 Labor force supply model................................................................................................ 31 Industry-occupational employment ............................................................................... 31 * Job openings ........................................................................................ 31 Evaluation of projections................................................................................................ 32 Appendixes: A. Labor force projection scenarios...............................................................................33 B. Macroeconomic model: Equations, identities, and variables...................... 35 C. Personal consumption model: Variables and equations...........................................47 D. Federal Government equations.................................................................................80 E. Labor demand equations...........................................................................................82 F. Economic Growth sectoring plan................................................................................91 G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model....................................... 95 H. Industries included in the industry-occupational model......................................... 102 I. Data sources............... 107 vi Chapter 1. EBLS Pr@|e©ti©ins System productivity, hours, and employment at the industry level of detail; and (7) the projection of an industry-oc cupational matrix used to project occupational employ ment levels. Some portions of each step are independent of the other steps, but, in general, each step is also dependent to some degree upon the step prior to it. The current approach allows for only limited conceptual or com puterized feedback from a later step to an earlier one. However, results at certain stages are compared ana lytically with earlier controls, and adjustments are made. The revised 1990 employment projections are the latest in a seiies that started in the mid-1960’s as an interagency project to study the conditions and require ments for balanced economic growth in the United States. The first Economic Growth model, formulated in 1963 for the 1970 projections, was a conventional application of the input-output technique using only one other model. Since that time, projection studies have been completed for 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990.' While the general approach has been similar for each of these studies, the methodology has been continually modified to include greater industrial detail, other models, more rigorous analytical techniques, a more automatic sys tem for processing calculations, and broader coverage including labor force and occupational projections in the current version. The interagency character of the projections has also changed. Although certain data as sumptions are still coordinated with other agencies, the projections have become more a b l s responsibility. Brief overview o f Economic Growth system. The revised employment projections, using this current methodol ogy, began with an estimate of the size of the aggre gate labor force available in 1990. To cover a range of uncertainties, three alternative scenarios were prepared: A high, low, and middle estimate of the projected la bor force. Population projections prepared by the Bu reau of the Census for various age, sex, and racial groups were used as a basis for the labor force supply estimates. Labor force participation rates for each group were projected by extrapolating past growth rates. Different base periods were used in the regression for each age group to provide the basis for the different alternatives. The total labor force was calculated for each group by multiplying the projected participation ratios by the census projections of population in each group. These projections were used as an input to the macroeconomic model projections. The high-trend I version of eco nomic growth used the high labor force alternative. The low-trend version of economic growth and the high-trend II version used the middle-level labor force estimate. Next, a set of assumptions, or scenarios, describing alternative conditions of growth in the economy were developed. Various assumptions, such as policy targets, were formulated and used in conjunction with the macroeconometric model, along with base period data. This model used these assumptions to develop consis tent projections of supply or potential g n p growth and the resulting income flows. Income flows were next used by the model in projecting demand g n p by ma jor components. Supply and demand g n p were bal anced in the model providing control totals for the pur chases of various final demand sectors consistent with all conditions and assumptions. Current methodology In the current version of the BLS Economic Growth system, two functions were made a formal part of the Economic Growth model system: The aggregate labor force projections and the projection of occupational employment levels. There are currently seven major steps in projecting employment levels: (1) A projection of labor force supply; (2) a macro model projection of the aggregate economy; (3) a disaggregation of gross national product to detailed demand categories; (4) a distribution of each demand category to producing in dustries; (5) projection of an input-output table and its use in solving for industry outputs; (6) a projection of 1Em ploym ent Projections f o r the 1980’s, Bulletin 2030 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1979). Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1980 Edition, Bulletin 2052 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1980). “ Revised BLS Projections to 1980 and 1985,” M onthly Labor Review, March, August, and November 1976 and “ Revised Occupa tional Projections to 1985,” M onthly Labor Review, November 1976. The following Bureau o f Labor Statistics bulletins: Occupational P ro jections and Training Data, Bulletin 2020 (1979); The Structure o f the U.S. Econom y in 1980 and 1985, Bulletin 1831 (1975); The U.S. Econom y in 1985, Bulletin 1733 (1974); Projections o f the PostVietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733 (1972); The U.S. Economy in 1980, Bulletin 1673 (1970); Patterns o f U.S. Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (1970); and Projections 1970: Interindustry Relation ships, Potential Dem and and Employment, Bulletin 1536 (1966). 1 The industry employment projections were used for calculating the occupational employment levels. The method incorporated an industry-occupational model to distribute industry employment levels to various oc cupations. This projection method involved first devel oping the occupational staffing patterns for each indus try in a current period (1978). These patterns were pro jected to 1990 based upon past experience and various analyses. The projected employment levels in each in dustry were multiplied by the occupational distribution for the industry. Summing across industries provided an estimate of the total projected employment in each occupation consistent with the industry projections. An outline of the various analytical stages of the pro jections is given below. Chart 1 shows the computa tional blocks of the system. Control totals for each of the categories of demand GNP developed in the macro model were used with various techniques and submodels to distribute aggre gate demand to detailed categories of demand or prod uct groups. For example, personal consumption ex penditures for nondurable goods were distributed to various product groups, such as food purchased for use at home, while investment in producers’ durable equip ment was distributed by producing industry; i.e., com puters or metalworking machinery. The next step was to distribute the functional or prod uct level demand in each sector to specific purchases of goods and services produced by 156 different indus try demand sectors using projected distribution factors or “bridge” tables. The industry classification in this sequence of the model is always consistent with the in terindustry models used in subsequent steps to project intermediate demand. The coefficients of the input-out put models were projected separately based upon such factors as expected changes in industry technology, shifts in inputs, and changes in the mix of products. These projected ratios provided the framework for esti mating the purchases each industry must make to sup port its projected sales. The projected interindustry ta bles, or matrices, provided estimates of the projected output needed from each industry for all final and in termediate demand requirements. At this stage in the model sequence, each industry’s output level was evalu ated for projected changes in total output and the share going to final and intermediate sales. Where annual rates of change in output or the distribution of intermediate and final demand varied significantly from past experi ence, the reasons were reexamined and changes made in the final demand purchases or coefficients where necessary. The projections sequence in the BLS Economic Growth model system then proceeded to estimate in dustry employment requirements. A labor demand model was used to project productivity changes in each industry. With the industry productivity projections, industry output requirements were converted to indus try employment requirements. Finally, the industry em ployment changes were compared to historical change. If the growth in employment appeared reasonable, it was aggregated and compared with levels used at the macro stage. At all steps in this process, the disaggre gated estimates were made consistent with their macro counterparts. A. Labor force projections 1. Project labor participation rates 2. Apply rates to population projections 3. Calculate labor force size B. Macroeconomic projections 1. Policy inputs 2. Potential g n p 3. Income flows 4. Demand sectors C. Final demand purchases 1. Functional levels 2. Industry purchases D. Interindustry tables 1. Base period tables 2. Coefficient projections 3. Projected tables E. Projected industry outputs 1. Calculation of gross outputs 2. Evaluation and feedback F. Projected industry employment 1. Productivity changes 2. Labor demand 3. Evaluation and feedback G. Projected occupational employment 1. Industry occupational staffing patterns 2. Total employment by occupation 2 Chart 1: Employment Projections System 3 Chapter 2„ Aggregate Labor F@re@ Projdetions tained a series consisting of the ratio of the annual aver age total labor force to the July 1 total population, in cluding Armed Forces overseas. The published annual average labor force series is the ratio of the annual aver age labor force to the annual average population with those in institutions removed. The total labor force series used in projecting the labor force, although not published, is available upon request. The civilian labor force series is published in the January issue of Employ ment and Earnings. To project the labor force, the proportion of the pop ulation in the labor force (labor force participation rate) was projected and multiplied by the projected popula tion. The population projections used were prepared by the Bureau of the Census. The projections of the per cent of the population expected to be in the labor force were prepared by BLS; this involved projections of changes in labor force participation rates. The popula tion was grouped by age, sex, and race and then the par ticipation rates were projected for each group. This re sulted in 54 groups which were projected using a regres sion approach. These projected groups were combined into the aggregate labor force projections and used as input to the macro model system. The high-trend ver sion of economic growth used the high labor force growth alternative. The medium alternative for labor force growth was incorporated in the other two ver sions. Projecting labor force patterns Three possible growth scenarios for labor force par ticipation rates were projected for each age, sex, and racial group based on past growth rates. (Details of the three scenarios are summarized in appendix A.) Middle-growth pattern. For white male youths (16 to 24), using labor force participation rates observed over a short period yielded a high rate of growth, while using the estimates measured over a longer period yielded a low rate of growth. The middle-growth rate was a weighted combination of the high and low patterns: A ssum p tion s In the time horizon used (to the year 2000), it was as sumed that work patterns would not change significant ly. For example, the labor force participation rate of women generally would not exceed that of men the same age; similiarly, a sharply reduced workweek would not become the standard full-time workweek. There would be no major wars or great social disturbances. Finally, there would be no substantial changes in prevailing defi nitions of labor force, employment, and unemploy ment.2 (1) middle rate = b' (high rate.) + (1 - b1) (low rate.) where b = 0.90 i, and i is the number of years since 1979. The general pattern observed in labor force participa tion has been increasing rates of change, whether up or down, with few changes in the sign of the growth rates. Mature (25 to 54) white men exhibited this pattern. Thus, this rate of change measured over the 1960 to 1979 period showed a slower rate of decrease than the rate measured over the 1972 to 1979 period; for the mid dle-growth alternative, the rate from the longer interval was used. The amount of change, r, for each projection was decreased exponentially according to the following equation: Data sou rces Since the Bureau of the Census projects a population series known as “ total population including Armed Forces overseas,” it was necessary to maintain a series for this base. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has main 2A Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics recommended no changes in difinitions o f the basic labor force con cepts when it reported in the fall of 1979. See National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Counting the L abor Force, Washington, 1979. The last revision of definitions was im plemented in 1967. See Robert L. Stein, “ New Definitions for Employment and Unemployment,” Em ploym ent and Earnings, February 1967, pp. 1-25. The Current Population Survey design was modified in January 1973 to reflect the 1970 census and was expanded in January 1978. (2) r = r0 [552 - i2 + i]/552 where i is the number of years since 1979, and r0 is the rate of change estimated over the historic period. The number 552 is derived from n2 + n, where n = 24. n is set so that it is beyond the projection period. 4 the black total labor force ratio equal to the comparable high white male ratio in the year 2000. The path is ex pressed by the two equations: Different middle-growth path scenarios were devel oped for two age groups of black-and-other men younger than retirement age; those 16 to 24, and those 25 to 59. Because of the higher sampling variability ob served in the total labor force rates at this level of disag gregation, the short-term labor force rate of change es timates were discarded for men 16 to 24. The moder ate-growth pattern was based on the upper confi dence-interval estimate of change measured over the long run for young black-and-other men. For men 25 to 59, the middle-growth rate pattern was based on the rate of change measured over the short run. Once a growth rate was estimated, it was projected according to equation (2). For the middle-growth scenario, women of both racial groups under 65 years of age were divided into three age groups, 16 to 19, 20 to 44, and 45 to 64. The rate of growth was measured over the recent past for women ages 16 to 44 and was measured over the longer period for women ages 45 to 64. For women 20 to 44, the rate of growth was projected to increase at an in creasing rate for 3 years, then to increase at a decreasing rate according to an adjusted version of equation (2). The divisor in equation (2) was changed so that the rate of growth became zero in 1995; then between 1995 and 2000, the labor force rate grew by a percentage point. For women 45 to 64, equation (2) was used unchanged, which implied that the rate of growth would continue to change until 2000. In no scenario was the labor force participation rate for women allowed to exceed the rate attained in 2000 by men of the same age and ethnic group. The same three retirement age scenarios (65 and over for women, 60 and over for black-and-other men, 55 and over for white men) were used for all racial and sex groups. The middle-growth scenario used the long-run rate, r, which was divided by two before being exponen tially decreased according to equation (2). (3) r = [log(black Ifpr 1979) - log(white lfpr 2000)]/21 and then using: (4) ro = (black lfpr 1979) exp [r (i)] where i is the number of years since 1979, and lfpr is the labor force participation rate. For the high-growth scenario, women of both racial groups under 65 years of age were divided into three age groups, 16 to 19, 20 to 44, and 45 to 64. For women 20 to 44, it was assumed that the growth measured over the shorter term would continue to increase at an increasing rate for 5 years, while for women 16 to 19 and 45 to 64, growth was projected to accelerate for only 3 years. After that, the growth rates were projected to increase at a decreasing rate according to an adjusted version of equation (2). The divisor in equation (2) was changed so that the rate of growth would become zero in 1995; be tween 1995 and 2000, the labor force rate grew slightly, by 1 percentage point. The effect was to have a more rapid increase in the short run than the middle-growth scenario. The high labor force growth scenario for those at the retirement ages was the same for all sex-ethnic groups. It reflects, at least implicity, the assumption that recent legislation and high inflation will stop the pattern of de clining labor force participation. The rate of decrease was held at zero or the participation rate was set to hold constant over the entire 1980 to 2000 period. Low-growth pattern. For white male youths, using labor force participation rates observed over the long range provided a low rate of growth, as the rate of change measured over the 1958-77 period yielded the lower rate of growth. The rate of change for prime-age white men as measured over the 1958-77 period showed a slower rate of decrease than the rate measured over the 1970-77 period. For the low-growth alternative, the de creasing pattern since 1970 was projected. The amount of change, r, for each was estimated according to equa tion (2). For black-and-other men, ages 16 to 64, the low alternative projection was based on the change mea sured over the long run, with the rate of change de creasing according to equation (2). For women 16 to 19, the rates from the long-run esti mates were used, while for women 20 to 64, the rates from the short-run estimates were used. For both groups, the lower estimate of labor force growth (smallest increase or greatest decrease) was used to make the projection. The rate of change was then projected according to equation (2). For the low-growth retirement age projection, which was made in the same way for all sex-ethnic groups, the High-growth pattern. For white youths (16 to 24), the labor force participation rates observed over a short pe riod yielded the high rate of growth. They were pro jected according to equation (2). The rate of change in participation of white men 25 to 64 measured over the 1960 to 1979 period showed a slower rate of decrease than the rate measured over the 1972 to 1979 period. For the upper growth rate alternative, the assumption was made that labor force participation for the age group 25 to 39 would increase at the same rate it had de clined over the 1960-79 period; for men 40 to 64, the rate of change was set at zero, continuing the last ob served labor force participation rate. The amount of change, r, for each projection was decreased exponen tially according to equation (2). The high-growth scenario for black-and-other men ages 16 to 64 was that rate of change which would make 5 rates of change were measured over the short term with its more rapid rate of decrease. For all of these older age groups, the labor force rate was kept above 1.2 percent. The Bureau of the Census Series II population projec tion was used for the labor force projections. Series II projects an ultimate fertility rate of 2.1 children per women. The current rate of fertility is following the Series II projection well, because the Bureau of the Cen sus projected the fertility rate to drop to below replace ment levels before rising in the 1980’s. Although there is nothing to indicate that the fertility rate will return to replacement levels in this century, it should be above the Series III level. The selection of a population projection series makes no difference in the labor force projection until after 1992. Two population estimates were made concurrently with the new round of labor force projections: The civil ian noninstitutional population, and the total noninstitutional population. The projection of the civilian non institutional population was made in two steps: Estima tion of the noninstitutional population, and removal of the Armed Forces. The total noninstitutional popula tion has only the institutional population removed. The civilian noninstitutional population for each age group, 16 and 17, 18 and 19, 20 to 24, 25 to 29, 70 to 74, 75 and over, was calculated using the ratios of the total noninstitutional population to the total population pub lished with the population estimates.4 After this, the Armed Forces were subtracted. P@pylati©p prom otions Although the emphasis in the presentation of these projections was on labor force participation rates, some discussion of population projections is necessary, as they affect the levels of the projected labor force.3 There are three elements to a population projection: Future births, future deaths, and future migration. The Bureau of the Census projects birth and survival rates but only the level of net migration . Evaluating the effect of these in reverse order, data on emigration have not been col lected for more than a decade because of their dubious accuracy. Although documented immigrants presum ably are counted accurately, if they then leave, they are not necessarily counted. Further, most conjectures about the number of undocumented workers put their level above that of legal net migration. However, it is necessary to distinguish between a net flow of 400,CKX) migrants and the conjectured stock of 1.5 to 6 million il legal migrants. Although most migrants are of working age, the labor force projections should be affected only if the assumptions are off by a factor of 2. It may be quite difficult to do appreciably better than the Bureau of the Census assumption of 400,000 net migrants per year. Mortality assumptions allow for a small decrease be tween now and the year 2050. Given the sudden and un expected decrease in mortality rates recently, this as sumption looks quite conservative. However, the effects of this will be upon the older population, who have low and declining labor force participation rates. Of the three elements in a population projection, the Bureau of the Census has prepared alternatives only for level of fertility. These alternatives vary according to the ultimate level of fertility that will be attained. The cen tral population projection, Series II, embodies an as sumption that, ultimately, fertility will be at replace ment levels so that the native-born population will not increase in size (starting about the year 2050). The upper population projection, Series I, reflects the pattern that would occur if fertility returned to the high levels of the early sixties; the low population projection, Series III, presents a pattern that leads to a falling population in the next century. By 1995, the size of the younger labor force would be affected by these scenarios, but before then, fertility paths only enter the model as they affect women’s labor force participation. Since mothers of young children have been increasing their labor force participation, different patterns of fertility change should make less and less difference as time passes. The total labor force was calculated by multiplying the projected total labor force participation ratios by the Series II population projection; the civilian labor force was projected by subtracting the Armed Forces from the total labor force. Two more labor force rates were calculated: The ratio of the civilian labor force to the projected civilian noninstitutional population, the civilian labor force participation rate; and the ratio of the total labor force to the total noninstitutional popu lation, the total labor force participation rate. Since the labor force participation rates as published for survey data are the ratio of the annual average labor force to the annual population (always with the institutional population removed), the rates were not strictly com parable to the historical data. At the time the projections were prepared, the goal of the Department of Defense for 1985 was an active duty force of 2,061,000 people: 254,000 women and 1,807,000 men in the Armed Forces by 1985. In order to make the projections consistent with Current Popula tion Survey estimates, it was necessary to include the Coast Guard and reserves on active duty for less than 6 months. To make the labor force projections, it was necessary to have an age-race distribution also. To ob tain that, it was assumed that each sex group would 3The methodology and assumptions for the most recent Bureau of the Census population projections are in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 704 (Bureau o f the Census, 1947), pp. 9-11. 4Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 643 (Bureau o f the Census, 1977), table A-3. Projection ©f the 6 total and civ ilia n labor force have the same ethnic-age structure as in 1979, the most recent year for which Bureau of the Census data were available.5 From 1986 on, the Armed Forces were as sumed to have the same age structure as that projected for 1985. With the addition of the Coast Guard and re serves, the Armed Forces would have the following composition (in thousands): 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 , ....... ...,... ....... ....... ....... ....... Both sexes 2,088 2,099 2,111 2,120 2,125 2,129 Men 1,910 1,900 1,892 1,885 1,876 1,871 Women 178 199 219 235 249 258 interpreting the projections If the future labor force could be determined with no error, then only one series would be necessary; this ac curacy was not possible. Most users would like an as sessment as to the likelihood of the forecast occurring. Given the judgmental aspects involved in making these forecasts, formal confidence intervals could not be con structed. However, four comments should be helpful. First, the three forecasts were made with reasonable as sumptions about the future of the labor force. Second, only the high projection has any turning points; it is quite likely that some of the labor force series will in deed change direction. Third, as Theil points out, pro jections must at some place in their structure hold change constant, whether it is the level of net migration or the rate of change; this has the effect of underesti mating the amount of change. Further, as Mincer and ‘Henry Theil, A pplied Econometric Forecasting (Chicago, Rand McNally and Co. 1977), pp. 13-14. Jacob Mincer and Victor Zar nowitz, “ The Evaluation o f Economic Forecasts,” in Jacob Mince, ed., Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analyses o f Forecasting Behavior and Performance (New York, National Bureau o f Economic Research, Columbia University Press, 1969), pp. 3-46. 5Current Population Reports, Estimates o f the Population, by Age, Sex, and Race: July 1, 1977 to 1979, P-25, No. 870, 1980. Zarnowitz indicate, it is harder to project a rising level of activity.6 For men, this tendency would overestimate the level of their labor force activity, while the rate and level of women’s activity would be underestimated. The relative sizes of the two components of the labor force would be even more poorly projected. Since several groups of both men and women had rates that appeared to be changing at an increasing rate, the problem will likely continue, even if all such phenomena must stop. Finally, examination of several labor force projections and of sensitivity studies of labor force models indicated that the confidence interval was at least as wide as 6 per centage points, which suggested that a crude, but useful, rule of thumb would be to use the unemployment levels and rates for age groups as confidence intervals. Users should avoid the temptation to use the mid dle-growth projection simply because it is in the middle. For some purposes, either the high- or low-growth sce narios will prove more useful. The high-growth scenar ios will be useful in exploring not only the aspects of faster labor force growth, but also those of convergence of labor force activity rates. The low-growth alternative presents the opportunity to explore aspects of more di vergent labor force trends. The way in which the projec tions were made allows modularity; for example, re combining the high-growth labor force projections for older workers with low-growth projections for other workers. Alternately, under an assumption of competi tion of male and female labor force activity, the male high-growth scenario could be combined with the fe male low-growth scenario. 7 Chapter 3. Aggregate Economic Projections The b l s macroeconomic model provides estimates of growth in the major sectors of the economy that are consistent with all assumptions and conditions of a par ticular projection scenario. The purpose of the aggre gate projections is to provide consistent and integrated control totals for the projected industry purchases that are developed later in the system. Projections for the overall economy are prepared using a modified version of a fiscal policy model first designed and estimated by Lester Thurow in 1969.7 The b l s macro model is a relatively small-scale model (approximately 50 equations) whose purpose is to capture the impacts of those factors which affect de mand and supply over the medium to long term. The model is structured around a framework in which out put produced is balanced with output demanded via in come flows. To bring about this balance between sup ply and demand g n p , the model is structured to re spond to fiscal policy changes, which affect the level and distribution of spendable income in the personal and corporate sectors. The following discussion of the model covers its three main areas or blocks: Supply, income, and demand. Although these blocks are treated as separate entities, they are not independent, due to simultaneous solutions in the structure of the model. A fourth block, price/wage determination, is discussed briefly. Major exogenous variables are pointed out as necessary. All of the behavioral equations and major model identities referred to are detailed in appendix B. The four computational blocks of the macroeconomic model are outlined below. It is important to note that all blocks are solved simultaneously. b. Capital consumption allowances c. Corporate profits taxes d. Corporate dividends 2. Personal income a. Indirect business taxes b. Transfers to persons c. Social insurance contributions d. Personal taxes e. Personal savings C. Demand-side g n p 1. Personal consumption expenditures 2. Gross private domestic investment a. Producers’ durable equipment b. Nonresidential structures c. Residential structures d. Change in business inventories 3. Net foreign trade a. Exports b. Imports 4. Government a. Federal b. State and local i) Education ii) Other D. Price/wage 1. Private g n p implicit price deflator 2. Private compensation per hour Assumptions of the macro projections There are 51 variables in the BLS macroeconomic model that are exogenous, or that had to be estimated externally in various ways for the projected periods. From a solution point of view, all exogenous variables are considered assumptions. From a structural approach, however, the exogenous variables must be grouped in three ways. First were those items projected with so phisticated techniques outside the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections such as the popu lation projections. Second were items which repre sented either policy instruments or policy goals. The policy instruments, such as Federal tax rates or Federal employment levels, represent the Federal Government’s position at any particular point in time. The policy goals, such as the unemployment rate or the Federal deficit, A. Supply-side g n p 1. Aggregate labor force, employment, and average hours 2. Total hours 3. Aggregate capital stocks 4. Gross product originating 5. Output per hour B. Income 1. Corporate sector a. Profits 7Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model o f the United States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. 8 wage base and the combined employer/employee tax rate. Federal purchases of goods and services, exclud ing compensation, were assumed to grow slowly in real terms, increasing at an average of slightly less than 2 percent per year. Federal transfer payments consisted of: (1) Unemployment insurance benefits; (2) social se curity benefits; (3) Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) railroad retirement; (5) veterans’ benefits; (6) hospi tal and supplementary medical insurance; (7) supple mentary security income; and (8) all other Federal trans fer payments. Projections of each category were gen erally based upon expected inflation, changes in the size of client populations, and expected real changes in bene fits. For this projection series, all categories were as sumed to maintain the same level of real benefits through 1983; after 1983, modest annual increases in real bene fits were assumed for each. Grants-in-aid to States and localities and subsidies to Federal Government enter prises were assumed to continue unchanged in real terms. were the result of such measures. Finally, there were those exogenous variables which were assumptions in the narrowest sense; i.e., a judgment as to the probable course of a particular item. An example of this category would be the inflation rate. When all of these variables were projected and con sidered as a whole, they presented a picture of the eco nomic conditions assumed for a particular set of pro jections. All of the projection results were heavily in fluenced by the initial assumptions required to operate the macro model. These followed from the nature of the scenario or the conditions examined for their effects on employment. Four categories of explicit assumptions were developed for each scenario: Demographic, fiscal policy, price, and productivity assumptions. In addition, certain general goals or guidelines affected the projec tions process. For example, the effects of rising energy prices and potential energy shortages were considered and were assumed, or expected, to be insufficient to have a significant effect on aggregate economic growth. Foreign trade was assumed to achieve a rough balance over time. And, in balancing supply and demand GNP, there was an attempt to maintain Federal outlays as a percent of GNP at below current rates and approxi mately to balance budget receipts and expenditures to the extent the scenarios permitted. Price. While price assumptions did not directly affect the determination of real GNP, they did affect the pro jections in several important ways. First, wage rates and interest rates were influenced to a great extent by price changes. These in turn affected consumption ex penditures and residential investment. Second, price changes affected the Federal budget. They entered im plicitly into the determination of various expenditure levels, while on the revenue side, they affected personal income taxes because of the progressive tax structure. The movement of prices in the future, of course, could not be adequately projected. Price assumptions used in the projections were judgments that might contain sub stantial error. For these projections, the inflation rate was assumed to be lower than the average rate since 1973, but above the average for the 20 years preceding 1968. Demographic. Demographic assumptions included the projected size of the population and its component groups, such as urban and rural, number of households, and changes in the size of the school-age population. The primary determinants of the demographic assump tions were the current and expected level and age dis tribution of the population based on the three projected population series.8 The series II projections were used for the base projections. Projections of the number of households and the number of students were also avail able from the Bureau of the Census.9 It was assumed that recent trends in urban population growth would continue throughout the projected period. Productivity and employment. Private nonfarm produc tivity was assumed to grow slowly during the projected period; above the average for the period 1968-77, but below that for 1955-68. A slow recovery to rates of growth typical of the 1960’s was assumed, predicated upon the reversal of some previously depressing fac tors. Members of the post-World War II baby boom would be more experienced as workers during the 1980’s. Also, recent rapid growth in the levels of in vestment in environmental and energy conservation equipment was expected to slow down by 1985, allow ing a greater proportion of investment funds to be spent on more industrially productive plant and equipment. The moderate labor force projection was adopted for the base case and its alternative, while the higher labor force estimate was used for the high-trend alternative. From these levels, assumptions were then made as to Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy included a variety of as sumptions about personal and business taxes, Federal purchases of goods and services, Federal transfer pay ments, grants-in-aid, and subsidies. Federal personal in come tax cuts were assumed for the 1980’s of sufficient magnitude to offset the impact of inflation on the per sonal tax rate. The tax rate on corporate profits was assumed to drop moderately, leveling off at 45 percent after 1980. Estimates of contributions for social secu rity programs were based upon the expected taxable 8Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 704, July 1977 and 1978. 9 Projections o f the number o f households were from Current Popu lation Reports, Series P-25, No. 607, July 1977 and 1978. School en rollment participation rates by age group were drawn from Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 278, July 1977 and 1978. 9 in the private sector is allocated to that sector regard less of which sector consumes the products. Under this definition, the public sector includes only compensation paid to Federal, State, and local general government employees. All other income is assumed by national in come accounting conventions to originate in the pri vate sector. Private production is further distributed between farm and nonfarm activities. The first step in determining private production is to arrive at an estimate of the labor input to the process. In the original version of the Thurow model, there were several behavioral equations specified to determine la bor force participation rates for males and females. The current version takes the labor force as exogenous. La bor force projections start with population projections made by the Bureau of the Census. The principal area of uncertainty in these projections is the estimate of the labor force participation rate for women. The un employment rate of the civilian labor force was set exogenously as a target variable. Thus, civilian employ ment as a count of persons is determined by multiply ing the civilian labor force by the employment rate (equation 1, appendix B). Employment data at the industry level of detail are available from the monthly BLS survey of business es tablishments.10 This survey is a count of jobs, whereas the household survey, which forms the basis for the historical time series on the labor force and unemploy ment rate, is a count of persons. In order to maintain consistency between aggregate and industry results, equation 2 (appendix B), is used to relate establishment based civilian employment to civilian employment on a persons basis and the unemployment rate. A major difference between the two series arises from individuals who hold more than one job, who would be counted only once in the household survey as being employed, but more than once in the establishment survey. Other differences between the two series have been examined in detail elsewhere.11 The absolute difference between the two series, termed the conversion factor, tends to increase in recovery periods, as the number of persons holding two or more jobs increases, and to decline in recessionary periods, as the number of these workers declines. The unemployment rate is entered into the equation in an attempt to capture this tendency. State and local government employment per capita in education and noneducation (equations 3 and 4) are related behaviorally to real purchases of goods and services per capita, and to trends in urban population growth as a proportion of the total population. Pur- the expected size of the agricultural labor force, the Armed Forces, and the Federal civilian labor force, leaving a residual of private nonfarm labor to he em ployed. The unemployment rate, treated as a policy ob jective in the projections, had a major impact on the results. After recovery from the 1980 recession, un employment was assumed to achieve a stable long-run rate. The major variables for which explicit assumptions were required in the projected years are: U.S. population Urban population School enrollment Number of households Civilian labor force Unemployment rate Military employment Federal civilian employment Agricultural employment Private gnp deflector Farm equipment purchases Farm structures purchases Equipment discards Structures discards Residential structures discards Statistical discrepancy Unemployment insurance contribution rate Combined social security contribution rate Social security benefits coverage ratio 3-month Government bill rate 3- to 5-year Government bond rate Federal gasoline tax Motor fuel usage Federal corporate profits tax rate Exports of goods and services Federal purchases less compensation Federal transfer payments Federal grants to State and local governments Federal subsidies to enterprises State and local corporate profits taxes Transfer payments Interest payments Subsidies to enterprises Sup p ly gwp The first stage in the model sequence is to determine what the economy can produce. This occurs in the sup ply block, which is divided between the private and public sectors. These two sectors are defined on a gross product originating basis. That is, all income generated 10This BLS survey is described in monthly issues o f Employment and Earnings (Bureau of Labor Statistics). "Gloria P. Green, “Comparing Employment Estimates From Household and Payroll Surveys,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1969. 10 without these terms enjoy a slight statistical superiority. The final step in estimating supply gnp is to arrive at values for gross government product. As was noted earlier, the supply concept of government covers, by convention, only compensation of employees. Four equations are included to arrive at compensation for Federal military, Federal civilian, State and local edu cation, and State and local noneducation employees (equations 22-25). In all four cases, the equations con tain terms for the absolute level of employment as well as adjustment factors to account for shifts in the pay structure over time. The four government compensation estimates are combined with the two private components of gnp to arrive at the supply-side estimate of total real gnp (equations 26 and 27). chases per capita represent the average demand for State-provided services. This demand is moderated somewhat as the urban population expands due to the more efficient delivery of services in urban areas. Fed eral civilian employment and private farm employment were exogenous. Deducting these items from civilian jobs yields an estimate of private nonfarm employment in equation 5. Equations 6 and 7 estimate average annual hours worked in the farm and nonfarm sectors. In both cases, the equations are basically time trends to explain the long-term secular movement of these series, with the unemployment rate entered to account for variations around the trend. In the nonfarm equation, the female labor force participation rate was entered as a proxy for recent increases in part-time workers. Traditionally, women entering the labor market have been more likely to accept part-time work. The continuation of this trend, however, is subject to some question, and the female participation rates must be carefully evaluated in the projection period. Multiplying average annual hours by employment in equations 8 and 9 yields estimates of to tal hours worked in the farm and nonfarm sectors. To tal hours worked in the two sectors are transformed into indexes in equations 10 and 11, and, as such, form the labor inputs to the macro model production relationships. Capital stock series for farm and nonfarm equipment and structures are derived by identities 12-15. Stock se ries are maintained as well for residential structures and business inventories (equations 16 and 17). However, these two stock series do not enter the production re lationships. Stocks are updated by adding current in vestment to last year’s capital stock and subtracting dis cards. Five discard series are maintained, all exogenous to the model. The resulting fixed business capital series are then indexed (equations 18 and 19), and these in dexes form the capital input to the macro model pro duction relationships. The final step in calculating private supply gnp is to translate hours worked and capital stocks into a re sulting flow of goods and services via a production re lationship. Two production functions are used in the macro model, one for the farm sector (equation 20) and the other for the private nonfarm sector (equation 21). In both cases, the functions allow for changing capac ity utilization (as indicated by the unemployment rate), the impact of available labor and capital, and disem bodied technical progress in the form of a time trend. The capacity utilization term is nonlinear, that is, as employment increases relative to the available labor force, output per hour also increases, but at a diminish ing rate. In the original formulation of these relation ships, a measure of embodied technical progress for both capital and labor was introduced. Since that time, however, it has been found that the equations estimated income flows Unlike the supply side of the model, the income flows are determined in current prices. The income block is divided between corporate and personal incomes. The corporate sector centers around six equations and two identities. First, the gross flow of corporate funds (equa tion 28), defined as book corporate profits and capital consumption allowances, is estimated as a function of nominal private gnp , capacity utilization, and the rela tive movements of output prices and labor costs. Sec ond, corporate capital consumption allowances, with (equation 29) and without (equation 30) the capital con sumption adjustment, are related to the fixed stock of business capital. Third, Federal corporate profits taxes are determined in equation 31 as a function of corpor ate profits and the Federal corporate profits tax rate. State and local corporate profits taxes are exogenous. Corporate dividend payments are derived (equation 32) as a function of lagged dividend payments, reflect ing the importance of precedent on this item, and to corporate internal funds net of fixed investment ex penditures. Inventory valuation adjustments are related in equation 33 to price change, changes in real business inventories, and to last year’s stock of inventories. A dummy variable has been added to reflect the effects of the oil price increases not adequately covered in the private gnp deflator. Identities 34 and 35 are then specified for corporate internal funds and for undistrib uted corporate profits. The key to personal income is an identity which ex presses personal income as a series of deductions from and additions to gnp as depicted below: Gross national product Less: Corporate and noncorporate capital consumption allowances Equals: Net national product Less: Indirect business taxes 11 Plus: Equals: Less: Plus: Equals: and coverage ratio are exogenous as is the wage base in the historical period. In the projection period, how ever, attempts have been made to relate the wage base to changes in nominal average compensation, lagged two periods. State insurance funds are related to ad justed compensation of State employees only. All other contributions to Federal programs, such as Federal ci vilian employee retirement funds, are exogenous. An identity is introduced at this point summing the four types of contributions to arrive at the total level of so cial insurance contributions (equation 45). Interest paid by consumers is determined in equation 46 by the level of personal income and the yield on 3-month Government bills. Combining all of these items in equation 47 yield the estimate for personal income. Median family income (equation 48) is a function of the employment rate, GNP per worker, and the share of GNP going to personal income. Federal personal taxes depend upon the level of personal income in equa tion 49. Progressivity is built into the equation by in cluding the average tax rate on median family income. State and local personal taxes (equation 50) are a func tion of personal income, lagged taxes, and a time trend. Deducting personal taxes from personal income (equa tion 51) yields an estimate of disposable personal in come. Personal savings are related to the level of dis posable income, medium-term interest rates, and the in flation rate in equation 52. Aggregate personal con sumption expenditures are determined by an identity in equation 53. Business transfer payments Statistical discrepancy Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises National income Book corporate profits Social insurance contributions Transfer payments Net interest Consumer interest Dividends Business transfer payments Personal income Noncorporate capital consumption allowances (equa tion 36) depend upon the housing stock as the princi pal explanatory variable. The housing stock multiplied by a time trend is used as an additional explanatory variable. Determined in real terms, noncorporate con sumption allowances are then converted to current dol lars with the capital consumption deflator in equation 37. Federal indirect business taxes (equation 38) are re lated to private nominal G NP, the Federal tax rate on gasoline, projected motor fuel usage, and a dummy vari able for the Korean War period. State indirect business taxes (equation 39) are related to major State-funded expenditures, that is, purchases of goods and services and transfer payments less grants-in-aid from the Fed eral Government. Business transfer payments, the sta tistical discrepancy, and subsidies to Federal and State government enterprises are exogenous. Federal interest payments are determined in equation 40 as a function of the 3- to 5-year Government bond rate, times a proxy for the Federal debt. The proxy is constructed from the 1954 value of public issues of mar ketable bills, bonds, and notes, incremented by the value of the Federal deficit ( + ) or surplus (—) in each suc ceeding year. State and local interest payments are exogenous. Social insurance contributions are determined by four equations and one identity. The major determining vari able in three of the equations is compensation adjusted for employer contributions for social insurance. There fore, equation 41 relates the employer share of social insurance contributions to total contributions. Follow ing this determination are three equations (equations 42-44) for the following types of contributions: (1) Un employment insurance funds, (2) social security funds, and (3) all State and local government social insurance funds. The unemployment fund contributions are de termined as a function of adjusted compensation and the exogenous average employer contribution rate for this category of social insurance. Social security con tributions are related to the adjusted level of compen sation, the wage base, social security coverage, and the combined employer/employee tax rate. The tax rate Demand g n p There are currently three equations (equations 54-56) in the model for personal consumption expenditures. The durable goods equation depends upon total per sonal consumption as an income proxy as well as the unemployment rate, the previous year’s residential in vestment, the change in real disposable income, and a proxy for consumer debt burden. Nondurable goods purchases are related to total consumption, the debt burden, and the unemployment rate. Consumption of services is a function of total consumption, the un employment rate, and the stock of residential structures. There are four equations for investment (equations 57-60). Nonfarm equipment purchases depend upon pri vate nonfarm g n p , the internal flow of funds available for investment, the existing stock of equipment, and the interaction between capacity utilization and profitabil ity as measured by the previous year’s ratio of internal funds to the capital stock. Nonfarm structures purchases are related to private nonfarm g n p and the previous year’s investment in structures. Farm purchases of equipment and structures are exogenous. The equation for changes in the stock of business in ventories is not formulated to capture short-run fluc tuations in inventories. Rather, it represents an attempt 12 65) determines the implicit deflator for private g n p as a markup on unit labor costs and crude materials prices. The unemployment rate is also included. The percent change in private compensation per hour (equation 66) is, in turn, a function of private productivity, prices, and the unemloyment rate. Equations 67-70 are identi ties for private compensation per hour, private com pensation, unit labor costs, and the spread between price change and wage change. Equations 71-79 are deriva tions of other deflators as a function of the private g n p deflator. Finally, equation 80 is an identity for the total GNP deflator as a weighted sum of the various demand component deflators. to estimate desired inventory changes by means of a stock-adjustment process, modified to allow for a time trend and a nonlinear capacity utilization variable. Investment in residential structures depends upon the number of households, medium-term interest rates, and real disposable income per household. This latter vari able is included to take account of increasing family incomes which are not necessarily reflected on a per capita basis. Imports of goods and services are determined in equa tion 61 by real incomes, relative prices, lagged imports, and a capacity-pressure variable based upon the spread between potential and actual g n p . This particular vari able has an accelerator impact on imports. That is, as the actual/potential GNP ratio moves away from its long-run average, the impact on imports increases at an increasing rate. Purchases of goods and services by the Federal Gov ernment are determined by an identity given in equa tion 62. Compensation, determined in the supply block, is added to exogenous goods purchases to arrive at this figure. State and local purchases are determined by equations for the education (equation 63) and nonedu cation (equation 64) sectors. Noneducation purchases are related to private g n p , Federal grants-in-aid for noneducational uses, and the unemployment rate. Edu cation purchases are determined as a function of pri vate GNP, Federal education grants, and school enrollments. Balancing the macro model Summation of the derived real components of de mand in equation 81 yields the demand-side estimate of g n p . The demand- and supply-side estimates of gnp ordinarily will not agree, and the magnitude of such an imbalance is represented by equation 82. A positive sign for the gap represents a situation of excess supply, while a negative sign indicates excess demand. Although the sum of disposable incomes for all of the sectors neces sarily equals the estimate of the g n p , demand for g n p will fall short of or exceed the supply of GNP unless the total purchases of the various sectors happen to equal their combined incomes. The gap between supply and demand gnp depends in part on the government policies incorporated in the model. If there is a gap, this implies that the target rate of unemployment cannot be achieved with the existing fiscal assumptions. Thus, the various policy instruments in the model are modified to effect a balance between supply and demand. Many combinations of policies are possible, and a final choice is made on the basis of many considerations that are outside the model. Price/wage sector As was previously noted, the supply and demand blocks of the BLS macro model are determined in con stant prices, whereas the income side is expressed in current prices. In the original formulation of the model, the movement between real and nominal prices was ac complished with a set of exogenously specified defla tors. The price/wage sector has been added to insure Solving the macro model internal consistency between price and wage determi The solution of the model is somewhat different from nation and to determine the rate of inflation within the the foregoing discussion of behavioral relationships and model.'2 identities. In order to facilitate solution, equations are There are two major equations and four identities in arranged by block, where equations within a block are this sector of the model. The price equation (equation12 simultaneous. Initial estimates of the key block results are provided and iterative solution techniques are ap 12Richard C. Barth, “The Development of Wage and Price Rela plied to refine the initial solution until the model arrives tionships for a Long-Term Econometric Model,” Survey o f Current at a consistent solution. Business, August 1972, pp. 15-20. 13 Chapter 4. Final Demand Projections Gross national product is the final output of the econ omy measured from the demand side, or the output of the economy distributed among its final users. Final users are broadly categorized as persons, businesses, governments, and foreign. Final demand consists of the purchases made by these groups, or the purchases of the demand sectors of GNP. Final demand projections involved estimating the future purchases of each de mand sector, by industry of origin. For the 1990 pro jections, the economy was disaggregated into 156 dif ferent industries. These industries define the bills of goods, or lists of purchases, prepared for each final de mand sector. The output of the macro model provided control totals for each final demand sector. The first step in projecting distributions of purchases for each sector was to develop data series for the purchases each made in past years. The years studied were primarily years for which the Department of Commerce pub lished input-output studies (1958, 1963, 1967, and 1972); 13 1972 became a base year for the projections. In addi tion, many data series were available through 1979, pro viding recent trends. These historical data were used with a variety of techniques and submodels to project purchases. Assum ptions Various assumptions underlay projections of the de tailed purchases of the final demand sectors. In gener al, these assumptions followed the conditions of the scenarios being examined; major changes expected in the magnitude and nature of the activities of each de mand sector; and in some cases, changes in the demand, price, and availability of particular products. While as sumptions were developed primarily for functional lev els of demand sectors, such as education or space, they were also used for important industry sectors, as in the case of energy costs and availability. Prior to making the detailed projections of purchases, assumptions for each scenario were developed. Major functional areas were considered first. For ex ample, the recent history of health care was examined for trends, and various current proposals for change13 13 The Input-Output Structure o f the United States, 1958-, 1963; 79(57; and 1972 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau o f Economic Analysis). 14 were considered. Since the classification of health pur chases is different for private and public buyers, the extent of increased Federal Government participation through 1990 had to be examined. Since information at the time was limited, it was assumed that Federal Gov ernment participation would increase slightly, but that no comprehensive national program would be adopted by 1990. Further, the extent to which medical purchases would continue to be influenced by new technologies had to be considered. Educational purchases, as a total, were assumed to vary with fluctuations in the size of the school-age population. During the projected peri od, the size of the school-age population was expected to decline, but the post-World War II baby boom mem bers would be entering childbearing age. The possibil ity of the private sector increasing its share of school expenditures, relative to the public share, also had to be evaluated. In addition, the impact of increasing en ergy costs and shortages on purchases of different types of transportation services was considered, with various assumptions developed dealing with investment in mass transit, railroads, and highways. Levels of defense and space outlays were based on assumptions made about international conditions and the rate of space exploration. Product purchases were considered in certain cases. Purchases of ordnance were based upon assumptions about defense replacement requirements and U.S. pol icies on military sales to foreign governments. Aircraft purchases were heavily influenced by defense assump tions, expected foreign military sales, and airline invest ments. Energy was the principal area where assump tions were made on a product level. Energy assump tions in the projections were based, in general, on fore casts prepared by the Department of Energy which were primarily forecasts of the total use of energy by type of fuel. These projections provided the basis for estimating the output levels of domestic energy indus tries. In some cases, estimates were also available on consumption by particular demand sector. In other cases, energy purchases by final demand sector were estimated using past trends, constrained by the projec ted total use of each type of energy. In general, it was assumed that the prices of natural gas and oil would increase more rapidly than the prices of coal and elec Product projections. A consumption submodel was used to project the 12 major product groups as well as the 82 detailed product categories. This model, which re lated consumer expenditures primarily to income and prices, was originally developed by Houthakker-Taylor,16 with the 1958 constant-dollar data from 1929 to 1964, used to estimate a set of 82 product expenditure categories. Total PCE and the annual change in PCE are primary variables used as a proxy for disposable in come. PCE has a high level of explanatory power in these equations. Relative prices, which were calculated as the implicit price deflator for that good or service divided by the implicit price deflator for total PCE, were also used extensively. The lag structure of the equations allowed changes in explanatory variables to be distributed over time. tricity. Coal and electricity were assumed to be more readily available through 1990. Personal consum ption expenditures Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are the value of all consumer goods and services purchased by individuals and other nonprofit institutions. Purchases of dwellings are not included, although the rental val ue of owner-occupied dwellings is imputed to consump tion outlays. The distribution of P C E to producing industries was accomplished in two major steps. After total consump tion was determined by the BLS macroeconometric model, the first step was to project consumption, by type of expenditure, for 12 major product groups de fined by the Department of Commerce: (1) Food and tobacco; (2) clothing, accessories, and jewelry; (3) per sonal care; (4) housing; (5) household operation; (6) medical care expenses; (7) personal business; (8) trans portation; (9) recreation; (10) private education and re search; (11) religious and welfare activities; and (12) foreign travel and other, net. These 12 major product groups were summed up and then scaled to the projec ted total consumption controls of the macro model. Next, using these 12 product groups, a set of 82 lower level product categories, defined by the Department of Commerce as well, were projected. These 82 detailed product categories were also forced and scaled to sum to their appropriate 12 aggregate controls. Historical data for each of these categories were available from the Department of Commerce as part of the National Income and Product Accounts.14These data were used to develop two sets of behavioral equations to project the 12 major product groups and the 82 detailed prod uct categories. The second step was to distribute these 82 product expenditures to the producing industries. This task was accomplished with the use of projected “bridge” tables or matrices which distributed each of these 82 catego ries to its component industries as well as to the trans portation, insurance, and trade industries. The result was the PCE bills of goods, the largest component of final demand. Input-output tables constructed by the Department of Commerce exist for the years 1958, 1963, 1967, and 1972.15 Each input-output table has an associated PCE bridge table which distributes expenditures for the 82 products. Each product was assigned to one or more of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 496 sectors or industries. The BEA estimates these products for each year and benchmarks them to new bridge tables as they become available. For these projections, 1947-78 data, in 1972 constant dollars, were used to reestimate real consumption ex penditures for the 12 major groups and the 82 detailed categories. It was assumed that consumer decisions are based on a bundle of goods and services purchased si multaneously rather than on purchasing one good or one service at a time. Based upon this expenditure con cept, a set of 12 major product equations was simulated first over the projection period, using preliminary total PCE controls from the macro model. For these projec tions, the macro model prepared three alternative fore casts of trend growth, differing primarily in the assumed labor force growth, unemployment rates, inflation rates, and production levels. Thus, total PCE controls in the alternative forecasts were provided by the macro mod el. The lagged value of the particular product equation, disposable personal income obtained from the macro model, and relative prices17 were primary determinants in these equations. Additionally, with regard to the in fluence of other factors on consumption, the gross stocks 16 H. S. Houthakker and L. D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the U.S.: Analyses and Projections (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard Universi ty Press, 1970). 17 The price model assumed a markup specification; the input costs, such as labor and energy, were marked up to yield final product prices. This is naive in that it is not based on any particular formation. A specification equation is formed as follows: pt = AO + Al(time) + A2(unit labor costs)tl + A3(energy prices)t } where p = implicit price deflator in year t o f the good, 1972 = 100 time = time trend, 1945 = 1 unit labor costst = unit labor costs, private business economy, in year t energy pricest = producer price index o f fuels and related products, and power in year t, 1967 = 100 The price equation is essential, not in itself, but as a vehicle to close the consumption model. Time series data for the explanatory variables-unit labor costs and energy prices, both historical and pro jected period-were provided by the macro model. 14Survey o f Current Business, July issues, tables 2.4 and 2.5. 15 The Input-Output Structure o f the United States, 1958- 1963; 1967; and 1972 (Bureau o f Economic Analysis). 15 of durable goods18 and demographic variables19 were also introduced into these equations. For example, the stock of television sets was found to be an important determinant in the recreation group, and the population 18-34 age group was found to be important in explain ing the expenditures in the household operation group. Using time series data, the estimation of the specifi cation regression occurred at the product level. One of two estimation techniques was used—either the Cochrane-Orcutt or nonlinear least squares. The results were evaluated from the economic and statistical points of view. If the regression coefficients either had an ec onomically incorrect sign or were statistically insignif icant, the respective variables were dropped from the estimated equation. For these 12 major product equa tions, the income coefficients were statistically signifi cant and had a positive value for 11 of the 12; the price coefficients were significant and had a negative sign for 10 of the 12; the coefficients of the gross stocks of du rable goods were significant and had a negative value in 2 equations; and the coefficients of the demographic variable were significant in 6 equations. As mentioned above, the sum of the projected 12 major product groups was brought into balance with macro consumption totals by allocating the difference to groups according to their weighted average values. After the 12 subtotals were forecast, the 82 detailed equations were projected by using their appropriate subtotal PCE controls, their relative prices (derived in the same manner), and the lagged value of the partic ular individual good or service, also, the gross stocks of durable goods were introduced into those 11 dura ble goods equations. Due to time limitations, demo graphic variables were not used in the 82 product cate gories. Using the same estimation techniques to estimate these 82 detailed products, the income coefficients were statistically significant and had a positive sign for 72 of the 82; the price coefficients were significant and had a negative sign for 65 of the 82; and the coefficients were significant and had a negative sign for 7 of the 11 durable goods equations. Finally, the 82 product equa- tions were aggregated to their appropriate 12 major groups and were balanced with their corresponding subtotals by scaling the difference to categories accord ing to their weighted average values. A complete PCE. variable list and all of the behavioral equations, both consumption and price, are given in appendix C. Industry projections. The 82 product expenditure cate gories were transformed to a set of final demands con sistent with the input-output framework. Each of these 82 categories was made up of many types of goods and services, produced by different industries. A bridge ta ble or matrix was used to transform the product fore casts into the 156 industries used in the projections. A bridge table distributes the 82 product categories to their component goods and services and to the mar gin industries; i.e., wholesale and retail trade margin and transportation costs. The products are expressed in purchasers’ values, while the bills of goods or the pro ducing industries are expressed in producers’ values. The difference is the cost added to a particular indus try’s output in getting that output from the point of production to the consumer, including transportation costs (railroad, truck, water, air, and pipe- line costs), insurance costs (for imports only), and wholesale and retail trade markups. The bridge table accomplishes two tasks at once—it allocates each of the 82 product cate gories to its producing industries, and removes the trans portation and trade margins from the product and al locates them accordingly. Bridge tables were developed by the BEA for all input-output years. Thus, at the time these projections were prepared, data were available for 1958, 1963, 1967, and 1972. Each bridge table had been prepared in cur rent dollars. For this project, the 1963 and 1967 tables were reestimated in 1972 constant dollars and readjusted based on the 1972 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Also, the 1963 and 1967 tables were further mod ified in the way imports were handled.20 First, imports were valued at domestic port value instead of foreign port value, decreasing the margin entries by the amount of margins associated with transporting the goods be tween the foreign and domestic ports and increasing the producers’ value by an appropriate amount. Sec ond, imports were assigned to the relevant domestic industry based on the nature of the product. For the 1972 bridge table, except for those noncomparable im ports, all of the comparable imports were already val- 18 The gross stock o f durable goods is identified as: stockt = stockt j + investment - discardt where discard{ = AO + Al(tim e) + A2(stock)t j and investm ent = AO + A l(consum ption expenditures)t The annual data for investment in durable goods are made available by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the form of worksheets, while the gross stock o f durable goods appears in John C. Musgrave, “ Dur able Goods Owned by Consumers in the United States, 1925-77,” Survey o f Current Business, March 1979, pp. 17-25. 20 The treatment of foreign trade was changed in these projections to yield domestic rather than total output. Imports that were com petitive were subtracted from final demand by industry. Previously, imports were treated as a single, negative value in the export bill of goods. For more information, see the section on foreign trade in this chapter. 19The ratio o f population age group 18-34 to the age group 16 and over was chosen in the consumption model. Annual historical data and projected data were obtained from the Bureau o f the Census population estimates or the BLS macro model data base. 16 ued at domestic port value by the BEA; therefore, no further adjustment was needed.21 The 1972 bridge table was used as an initial estimate of the projected bridge tables. However, feedback from the final demand-output review required extensive work for some of these 82 products, especially for the prod uct of “food for off-premise consumption,” changing their relationships among industries producing these goods and services, as well as the margin industries in the projected years. In total, changes were made for 38 of the 82 categories, of which 13 were changed sub stantially and the rest only marginally for three alter native forecast versions. G ross private etomestie investm ent Gross private domestic investment is composed of fixed investment and the change in business inventories. Fixed investment represents purchases of durable equip ment and structures by both business and nonprofit in stitutions along with residential investment. Change in business inventories represents the value of the increase or decrease in raw materials, semifinished goods, and finished goods held by business. In projecting the in dustrial composition of investment demand, four cate gories were considered: (1) Residential construction, (2) nonresidential construction, (3) producers’ durable equipment, and (4) change in business inventories. Control totals for each of these categories were deri ved from the BLS macroeconometric model and then allocated to producing industries. Historical data series for each of the components of investment were developed. For residential structures, a detailed series from 1958 to 1979 was developed from data from the national income accounts. These data showed the movement of the detailed types of residen tial construction, such as single-family homes, multi family units, and additions and alterations. For nonres idential structures, detailed data from the national in come accounts showed expenditures for various types of construction, such as religious buildings, telephone and telegraph facilities, and farm buildings. In some cases, these detailed series had to be disaggregated us ing factors developed for input-output years to show trends for the more detailed types of construction. The data were then aggregated to the level of detail used in the Economic Growth industry model. These data series were developed in both current and constant (1972) dollars. 21 The B E A ’s latest 1972 input-output tables were used in their present benchmark revision. However, during these projections, the revised estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts were only available for 1972. The changes of rate between the revised PCE and the previously published PCE for 1972 were weighted by each of the 82 product levels, and these weights were carried over by products in the projection period. 17 The development of historical bills of goods for pro ducers durable equipment (PDE) involved two ap proaches that provided a check on the consistency of the data base from which the projections were made. The first approach studied the growth of demand in equipment over time. Annually, the national income ac counts show PDE distributed among 24 major catego ries such as agricultural machinery, construction ma chinery, communication equipment, etc. Each of the 24 categories was in purchaser prices and contained a vary ing number of supplying industries. For the years for which input-output tables were prepared (1-0 years), bridge tables were available which allocated each of these 24 categories to the margin and the supplying in dustries. Bridge tables for non-I-0 years were construc ted by interpolation to provide annual PDE bills of goods for the period 1958 to 1979. The second approach made use of the assumption that an industry’s investment was a function of its out put. The Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures are the sources for equipment invest ment for the historical period. For 1-0 years, capital flows tables are available which allocate the total in vestment of each industry to the supplying industries, thus, producing a PDE bill of goods. Bills of goods derived by these two approaches can be compared to spotlight changes that are occurring in the bridge table and the capital flows matrix. To make PDE projections, both investment output ratios and capital flows were projected based on the historical trends they have demonstrated. Projected out put by industry was first derived, then the projected investment output ratios were applied to derive the lev el of investment by each industry. This level of invest ment was run through a capital flows table giving a PDE bill of goods. This investment in total was made to equal total PDE as derived from the macro model runs. Obviously, changes in the distribution of PDE by industry changed the output level of each industry which caused a further change in the required invest ment. Adjustments were made repeatedly to the PDE column until PDE demand in each industry equaled the level of investment that was actually required by the distribution of output. The handling of the business structures and residen tial new construction was different from the BEA in put-output and past construction procedures. Previous ly, the inputs into the construction industries were shown in the body of the table; total construction final demands were shown in the gross private fixed invest ment and the government bills of goods. The output of the construction industry equals the final demand of this industry since there is no intermediate demand; i.e., there are no values in the row of the construction in dustry representing sales to other industries since con struction does not contribute material inputs to the pro duction process. The new construction industries were removed from the table and were placed in final de mand columns composed of the materials and services purchased by the new construction industries with val ue added appearing as a new industry; i.e., the con struction industry. The purchases of new construction on the part of the Federal and the State and local gov ernments were included also in the bills of goods as di rect purchase of the inputs. In order to derive the con struction bills of goods, the input columns from histor ical tables were removed and made final demand col umns. For the projected period, changes that could be expected in the input structure were incorporated in the projected bills of goods. Historical data for the inventory change bill of goods are available only for the 1-0 years. Input-output con ventions allocate inventory change to the producing industry, no matter which industry held it. Using Cen sus and Annual Survey o f Manufactures data, inventoryto-shipments ratios for historical periods were derived and benchmarked to input-output conventions. These inventory-to-shipments ratios were projected and ap plied to projected outputs giving a change in invento ry bills of goods. Investment in equipment is allocated to many differ ent manufacturing sectors, as well as to the trade and transportation sectors. In some cases, services which are capitalized on a firm’s books are also included as equipment purchases. Types of equipment range from mining, construction, and oil-field machinery to amuse ment park equipment, computers, and office machinery. The change in business inventories is very different from the other components of investment. There are entries, either negative or positive, in almost every in dustry except construction and services. The relative importance of any entry can change greatly from year to year. Detailed bills of goods are available only in 1-0 years. Initial estimates of the projected bills of goods for structures were made at the level of the most detailed historical data based on past relationships. Data from 1958 to 1979 were used to project the movement of these detailed categories into the future. These individ ual projections were aggregated and evaluated against the projected controls obtained from the macro model. Changes were made as necessary to the detailed pro jections until they added to the control totals. These estimates, along with estimates of the other final de mand bills of goods, were used to generate initial esti mates of output by industry. Capital flows tables, which allocate purchases of structures and equipment by type, along with investment-output ratios, which relate an industry’s investment to its total output, were estimated for the projected years based on historical data. The projected investment-output ratios, capital flows tables, and outputs were used to create a bill of goods for structures to be checked for consistency with the ini tially projected construction vector. Changes were made as necessary to get a consistent set of tables, investment-output ratios, and projected bills of goods. The use of a capital flows, approach allowed changes in industry outputs to change the investment of the industries. Investment in equipment, like investment in plant construction, was projected by relating it to the output of the industries producing goods and services for sale to other industries and to final demand. Most industries require a wide variety of investment goods, and indus tries producing investment goods sell equipment to a variety of users. As a result, comparing the types of investment goods required against the initial estimates of equipment types produced was a complex process. Initially, producers’ durable equipment was projec ted for detailed industries based on historical trends. As in the case of nonresidential structures, these estimates were used to generate initial estimates of output by in dustry. At this point in the projection sequence, there was no assurance that the initial estimates of types of equipment produced were consistent with the types of investment goods required by the generated outputs. As with the nonresidential structures component of in vestment, investment-output ratios and capital flows ta bles were projected, which, with the generated outputs, allowed a check of the consistency of those projections. The projected capital flows tables, investment-output ratios, and initial bills of goods were adjusted until they were consistent. The capital flows table allowed changes in industry output to be reflected in the investment bills of goods. Projections of net inventory change by producing industry were based primarily on projected industry outputs. A constant percentage of output for each in dustry was used as an initial estimate of the bill of goods. Industries which had a perishable product were adjust ed to be more in line with past levels. The initial pro jections were modified as necessary in later stages in the projection process. Less effort was expended on the allocation of net inventory change to the producing in dustries since this item is relatively unimportant in longrun projections. Foreign trade Net exports represent the value of total exports of goods and services less the value of total imports of goods and services. Exports and imports are handled separately in the input-output system and are netted out only at a final stage to present a conceptually consis tent level of GNP. Unlike other sectors of final demand, historical data on foreign trade are plentiful and detailed. Instead of problems of disaggregation and estimation, foreign trade data must be compiled or aggregated into the input- 18 output industry sectors. Data on both exports and im ports can be obtained from the detailed merchandise trade statistics published annually by the Bureau of the Census. For exports, this included SIC product codes and schedule B commodity codes. For imports, data were available by SIC-based product codes and by spe cial U.S. tariff schedule codes. Data requirements after aggregation involved modification and augmentation to reflect balance-of-payments and input-output conventions. Although exports are treated the same as any other component of final demand in the input-output system, imports require a unique treatment. Total imports are projected by an equation in the macroeconometric mod el. This total is divided into two categories in the in put-output system. The first category consists of all im ports by final users, as well as intermediate imports, which are competitive with domestic products. The second category consists of intermediate imports which have no domestic counterparts, such as coffee and diamonds. In the input-output system, this first category of im ports is shown as a negative column of demand; that is, subtracted from final demand in order to yield de mand for domestic output rather than total output for each industry. Automobiles are a good example of im ports not subject to further processing. Intermediate and final demand for automobiles includes some share that is met by foreign producers. By subtracting the value of foreign automobiles from total demand for autos, the demand for domestic automobiles is derived. As this is done for every industry for which there are competitive imports, the result is a demand for domes tic goods which, when applied to the coefficients of the input-output table, produces estimates of domestic, rather than total, output by industry. The projection of competitive imports by industry was mainly based on analysis of existing and expected shares of the domestic market. Trade agreements which might restrict imports were also taken into account. The second category of imports encompasses inter mediate products that have no domestic substitutes in the sense that they cannot be replaced by domestic items in existing production processes without altering the nature of the product. These imports are directly allo cated to the industries which use them in their produc tion processes. Thus, coffee, which is not produced in the United States, is directly allocated to the food prod ucts industry where it is ground, blended, and packaged before being allocated to the personal consumption ex penditure category of final demand. Once the interme diate, noncompetitive imports are allocated to the user industries, they are transformed into coefficients. The coefficients are then projected in much the same way as domestic coefficients in the input-output table. 19 After imports were initially projected, the level of exports was set so as to reach a nearly zero currentdollar trade balance in the projected years, an assump tion or policy target. The value of total exports was distributed by industry, primarily on the basis of time trends and expected world conditions. It was necessary to rely on simple forecasting techniques to project ex ports by industry because long-term estimates of for eign income and prices were not widely available. Industry projections. For most industries, the foreign trade projections relied on an analysis of the trends of imports and exports as shares of total output. The ra tios for 1963, 1967, 1972, and, for merchandise trade, 1977 were compared, and the trend carried out to 1985 and 1990. The ratios were applied initially to estimates of 1985 and 1990 output to compute imports and ex ports. The industry levels of imports and exports were added and scaled to the total values of the macro model. The results were sometimes modified based on a com parison with previous BLS projections of imports and exports. Where the previous projections relied on spe cial analysis or special trade agreements that were still in effect, these were taken into account. A detailed dis cussion of the assumptions of the previous foreign trade projections is available in an earlier bulletin.22 For most industries, it was assumed that the ratios of imports and exports to output would continue to change according to past trends. One exception was the motor vehicle industry. Imports of all cars, trucks, buses, vans, and spare automotive parts have grown substantially as a share of the total output of these items purchased in the United States. This rise was assumed to continue through the early part of the 1980’s as the auto indus try struggles to recover from the 1980 recession. In the latter part of the decade, however, the import share was projected to stabilize. This was expected to occur as the result of two trends: (1) American cars would begin to compete effectively with gas-economizing im ports; and (2) more foreign automakers would set up factories *in the United States. Specific assumptions were also made for the energy industries. To the degree possible, these assumptions were based on the midprice scenario in the 1979 Annu al Report to the Congress of the Department of Energy in June 1980. It assumed that crude oil nominal prices would rise from $31.37 a barrel in 1979 to $51.14 in 1985 and to $81.33 in 1990. The Department of Ener gy’s projected rates of growth for domestic output and imports under these price conditions were applied to BLS historical data to derive the 1985 and 1990 levels 22 Methodology for Projections o f Industry Employment to 1990, Bul letin 2036 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 1980). The State and local government model predicts ex penditures and employment in current dollars for 20 functions. These functions are projected based upon Census and BEA data by calendar year. They include: (1) Elementary and secondary education, (2) higher ed ucation, (3) other education, (4) libraries, (5) highways, (6) health, (7) hospitals, (8) sewerage, (9) public utili ties, (10) natural resources, (11) corrections, (12) police, (13) fire, (14) sanitation, (15) public welfare, (16) local parks and recreation, (17) general government, (18) oth er government enterprises, (19) public housing, and (20) water and air terminals. The model structure was based upon data for the years 1960-73. Equations for each function were first estimated for expenditures and em ployment. Expenditures in the model are in current dol lars and apply to all outlays, not just purchases of goods and services. Another set of equations was used to con vert expenditures to purchases and compensation. A fi nal set of equations was used to convert purchases to constant dollars. Employment was estimated in full-time equivalent units. The model is driven by four major groups of variables: Growth in personal income; demo graphic data; grants-in-aid; and an “all other” category that included interest rates, prices, and unemployment rates. BEA data also provided a basis for projecting func tional State and local government purchases. Purchase data are available annually that can be compiled into 20 different functions. These include four educational functions: Elementary and secondary education, high er education, libraries, and other education. There are five health, welfare, and sanitation functions: Health, hospitals, sewers, sanitation, and welfare. Three func tions are included in safety: Police, fire, and corrections. Other functions include: General government, high ways, natural resources, parks and recreation, water and air terminals, public housing, public utilities, and other enterprises. These functional categories were in itially projected based upon historical trends and ex pected changes. The next step in the projections procedure was to reconcile the results of the macro model, the State and local model, and the projections of the functional BEA data base. Employment projections from the State and local model were converted to compensation in the de sired format. Compensation was adjusted to agree with the macro model controls. Construction purchases were obtained by estimating the proportion of capital expend itures that were equal to new and used construction purchases by function. The results were extrapolated toward the projection years. As with total purchases and compensation, construction purchases were con verted to constant dollars and calendar years. Ultimate ly, control totals were determined for the 20 functions of domestic production of various types of energy and the level of oil imports. Oil imports were assumed by the Department of En ergy to be cut back drastically in the 1980’s in the Unit ed States and other industrialized nations, reflecting the assumption that high prices and uncertain supply would force conservation and a shift to other energy sources. The principal alternative energy source was assumed to be coal—coal production and coal exports were pro jected to rise dramatically in the upcoming decade. State and local governm ent State and local government demand is defined as the purchases of goods and services by all State and local government units. Purchases include the compensation paid to State and local government employees as well as all purchases of goods and services. Purchases of these units are less than total expenditures, which also include transfer payments to persons, such as welfare benefits and interest and subsidy payments. State and local government purchases are separated by type of function for analytical purposes. Major categories used were education, health, welfare and sanitation, public safety, and all other. Each of these functional catego ries was further distributed to a total of 20 different sublevels. Each of the 20 was further divided into em ployment, compensation, construction, and an all other purchases category. The projection of State and local government pur chases started with the overall control totals for pur chases projected by the macroeconomic model. These levels were then distributed to 20 different State and local government functions using both a State and lo cal government model and historical data trends. His torical data on 20 State and local government functions are maintained by BEA, broken out by compensation, construction, and all other purchases. These levels were projected based upon trends and special studies as well as by use of the State and local model. The results of the macro model and the two functional projection ap proaches were compared and reconciled to provide ac ceptable levels for each of the 20 functions and their components. The “all other purchases” component for each of the 20 functions was allocated to individual in dustries by projecting historical distribution patterns for the functions developed by BEA. The macroeconomic model estimates of projected State and local government purchases were consistent with all macro assumptions and estimates, including grants-in-aid. This model provides a purchase total for each projected year, with subtotals for education and for all other functions as a group. Both of these cate gories are divided into compensation and all other purchases. 20 for compensation, construction, and other purchases which were compatible with the controls provided by the macro model for education and noneducation. These levels of functional purchases were distributed to the purchases projected to be made from 156 differ ent industry sectors. This was accomplished by projec ting base-period purchases for each function. Detailed purchase data by function were obtained from BEA worksheets for 1963, 1967, and 1972. These years pro vided a limited basis for projecting detailed industry purchases. The projections of purchases for each func tion were examined by annual rate of change and changes in the distribution pattern by industry. Where changes in a projected year seemed extreme, the pro jections were reexamined and revised if necessary. balancing supply and demand GNP. This model pro vides values for total purchases, total compensation of military and civilian employees, as well as the number of civilian and military employees. The levels were es tablished to insure consistency with overall projection assumptions. Assumptions were of major importance in the Federal sector since, in many cases, past experience was not useful for projection. For example, the projec tions have always assumed peaceful conditions without international tensions. A contrary assumption of war would result in unpredictably larger Federal purchases and a much larger defense share. Regression equations were used to derive the total purchases of the six subfunctions. These were modified based upon expected program levels in the case of de fense and space. The six subfunctions were modified until they came to the established macro totals. Real compensation was also derived for each subfunction us ing regression equations. Historical data for defense and nondefense new construction from 1952 to 1979 were used to derive regression equations to project purchases from the six new construction industries for each ma jor component of the Federal sector; these two values were then allocated to the six subfunctions based on historical trends. (See preceding discussion on invest ment in structures regarding the handling of new con struction in the Government account.) Federal Government The Federal sector consists of purchases of goods and services and of compensation paid by the Federal Government. Purchases are a major part of total Fed eral expenditures, which also include grants, transfers, and net interest. On the demand side of the national in come and product accounts, the Federal sector is di vided into the major components of defense and non defense, which are further split into purchases of goods and services and compensation of military and civilian employees, all in current dollars. In constant dollars, however, only purchases of goods and services and compensation for the Federal sector in total are avail able. For these projections, the defense sector was dis aggregated into two subsectors: Defense nuclear activ ities and other defense purchases. In addition, foreign military sales were examined and projected. The non defense sector was disaggregated into four subsectors: Nondefense nuclear activities, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Veterans Hospital medical care, and other nondefense purchases. Federal purchases were projected on the basis of his torical purchase patterns, expected changes, and as sumptions and expectations of Government priorities in the future. Principal data sources were the Department of Commerce input-output studies and various unpub lished records of agency purchases. Employment data were obtained from Office of Personnel Management reports, BLS data, and the U.S Budget appendixes. Construction data were obtained from a Department of Commerce series. As with other sectors, projected lev els of total purchases were derived from the macro model. These were first broken down by functional ac tivities, and then projected to industry purchases. The macro model levels of projected Federal pur chases were established exogenously in the process of Purchases, excluding compensation and new con struction, for each of the six subsectors were distribu ted to the industries which composed the remainder of the economy. These distributions were made largely on the basis of historical data. Historical bills of goods were available for certain years for the defense, space, and nondefense sectors. These were examined for trend changes and for purchasing patterns in years with con ditions similar to those assumed for the projected years. Industry data for recent years, available from the Bu reau of the Census, were of particular importance. Data for recent years from the Bureau of the Census and agency records provided recent trends. Trend data were modified based upon expected program changes, particularly for defense and space. Bills of goods were projected for each of the six subfunctions in 1972 dol lars, based upon trends and expected program changes. Projected imports for the defense and nondefense sec tors were shifted to the foreign trade bills of goods. Since most of the historical defense data bases includ ed foreign military sales, these were projected separate ly. Foreign military sales were assumed to rise slowly to 1980, and then level off in constant dollars. These sales were transferred to the export bill of goods. 21 Chapter 5. intermediate Demand Projections change was the differentiation between a commodity and an industry. A commodity was defined as the pri mary product of the industry with the same name. (The secondary product of one industry is the primary prod uct of another industry.) For the first time, it was pos sible to solve for both commodity and industry output, thus making possible differing analyses of the data. The third major change was in the handling of secondary products. Previous tables allowed for both redefinitions and transfers of these products, while in the new 1972 table, all secondary products were redefined. Another change was the inclusion of a new industry, Eating and Drinking Places, and the omission of two dummy in dustries, Business Travel and Entertainment and Office Supplies. There are two commodities for which there are no industries in the BEA sectoring plan: (1) Scrap, used, and secondhand goods, and (2) noncomparable imports. There are five industries in the BEA table which have no commodities: (1) Forest products, (2) Federal elec tric utilities, (3) Commodity Credit Corporation, (4) Local government passenger transit, and (5) State and local electric utilities. Otherwise, each industry has a matching commodity. After final demand purchases were projected, the in termediate demand, or additional output of each indus try that is required to support the projected final de mands, was calculated using an input-output model. This model provides a framework for projecting indus try outputs, or the total of final and intermediate sales required of each industry. An input-output “use” table is a rectangular matrix in which the entries represent the transactions of each sector with all other sectors. Each row of the matrix shows the sales of each commodity (the primary prod uct of the industry with the same name) to every con suming industry and final demand. The sum of all the entries in a row represents commodity output. Each column of the matrix shows the inputs of commodities to that industry which are used to produce its output. The sum of purchased inputs plus value added (returns to capital, labor, and entrepreneurial ability) equals the output of the industry. A second table, the “make” table, is a rectangular matrix which shows the production of commodities by each industry. Each row of the matrix shows which commodities that industry produces, and each row sums to industry output. Each column of the matrix repre sents a commodity and shows which industries produce the commodity. Each column sums to commodity output. The 1972 BEA input-output study represents a ma jor conceptual change from earlier benchmark inputoutput studies. The 1972 study went a long way in bringing the United States closer to United Nations conventions in input-output studies, and thus closer con ceptually to many other countries. This study was used as a basis for the revised BLS projections, even though changes in the study and timing difficulties limited BLS ability to create a time series of consistent input-output tables for this set of projections. Consequently, many of the input coefficients remained unchanged over the projected period. Secondary products The make table, or market shares matrix, mechani cally redefines many of the secondary products using an “industry technology” approach. This means that the secondary products are assumed to have the same technology as the primary products of the industry where they were produced. When redefining these com modities, the structure of the producing industry is left unchanged, but the structure of the primary producer is modified to account for the differing technologies of the different industries which may be producing the commodity. Other secondary products which were not included in the make table were redefined using a “com modity technology” approach. This assumes that the secondary products differed greatly from primary prod ucts of the industry in which they were produced. For these, the input structure of the primary industry was used to adjust the input structure of the producing in dustry. These specific redefinitions were taken care of in the use table. Changes from earlier BEA studies The changes introduced in the 1972 input-output study were of several varieties. The most obvious change was the use of 1972 SIC codes, which resulted in changes in many industry definitions. The second 22 Valuation ©f transactions handle compensation and value added in new construc tion. The 1985 and 1990 tables were also projected in constant dollars based upon the 1972 table. Some data were updated to 1977, but in many cases, due to a lack of resources, coefficients were unchanged from 1972 over the projected period. Input-output relationships may be expressed either in producers’ values or purchasers’ values. Both BLS and BEA value inputs purchased by a consuming industry at the price the producer received. Trade margins and transportation costs associated with these inputs appear as direct purchases by the consuming industry from the trade and transportation industries. Since the input-out put tables are in producers’ values, all trade and trans portation margins had to be stated as demand on those sectors. This method allows BLS to maintain the detail on actual purchases of specific materials—materials are not sold to or purchased from the trade industry. The output of these trade sectors is measured in terms of total margins—operating expenses plus profits. The transactions recorded in the input-output tables are based on data contained in the Census of Manufac tures and the other economic censuses. The Bureau of the Census assigns establishments to an industry based on the establishment’s primary output—those products or services which produce the largest part of its reve nue. Many establishments also produce other products which are different from the primary output—second ary products. A commodity is the primary production of the industry with the same name, and may be pro duced anywhere in the economy. Final demand is ex pressed in terms of commodities, as is the demand for goods used in production. But, these commodities may be produced by a variety of industries. The marketshare matrix, derived from the make table, indicates what proportion of each commodity is produced in each industry. This allows an increase in demand for a com modity to increase production in each industry which produces it. The Economic Growth projections for 1990 involved three sets of input-output tables—1972, 1985, and 1990. All tables were prepared in 1972 constant dollars. The 1972 tables represent an aggregation of the 496-order BEA tables to the BLS 156 sectors. The major differ ence in the BLS and BEA tables resulted from the movement of new construction materials purchases to final demand and the inclusion of a dummy industry to Projecting coefficients Coefficients are projected to change for several rea sons— technological change is an important factor, but not the only one. Changes in product mix or relative prices can also cause significant changes in coefficients. Because the BLS industries are aggregates of the more detailed BEA sectors, a simple change in the relative importance of those sectors can have a large impact on the coefficients. Also, as the relative price or availabil ity of substitute inputs change, substitutions might occur. Several different methods were used in projecting coefficients. Energy coefficients, both as inputs to oth er industries and as inputs from other sectors to energy producing industries, were projected using projections available from the Department of Energy. Several in dustries were studied intensively to pick up structural changes which had occurred since 1972, and changes were then projected forward (for example, the metals industries). In other industries, changes in expectations were incorporated (for example, a decrease in sugar in foods and soft drinks). For other commodities, the rows of the input-output tables were evaluated and increases or decreases throughout the economy were made based upon overall trends in the economy. In some cases, 1972 coefficients were reweighted based upon expected changes in the relative importance of detailed indus tries. Where resources were not available to study spe cific coefficients, they were left unchanged from their 1972 or 1977 level. The same total requirements tables, calculated to show industry output required to meet demand for com modities, were used for each of the alternative models. The use and make tables consistent with each of these scenarios were calculated. 23 Chapter 6. Industry Output and Employment Projeetions Factor demand model As described in the previous sections, the multiplica tion of projected final demand by the projected in put-output matrix yielded initial estimates of gross domestic output by industry. These estimates were eval uated in light of past output trends and expectations for the future. The model used to project annual industry employ ment and productivity was a factor demand model, which takes into account the interdependence of both labor and capital requirements in each industry. In this model, the demand for labor is a function of the in dustry’s output, capacity utilization (measured by the unemployment rate of last industry employed), technical change (as approximated by a time trend), and the stock of capital measured in efficiency units. The form of the model utilizes a c e s (constant elasticity of substitution) production function, involving fac tor-augmenting technical change. Allowing for eco nomies of scale, the production function can be written as follows: The historical data against which the initial output projections were compared are generally derived from a variety of sources. Manufacturing output is based on the value of shipments plus net inventory change for each 4-digit sic industry that is published annually in the Census o f Manufactures or in the Annual Survey o f Manufactures. Measures of nonmanufacturing output are derived from a variety of sources, including the Minerals Yearbook, Agricultural Statistics, and Busi ness Income Tax Returns. The various output measures are benchmarked to the input-output tables published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in this case, to the recently released 1972 table. Benchmarking the raw out put data takes account of the production of secondary products, which are treated as transfers to the primary producing industries under input-output conventions. After benchmarking, the historical output data are converted into real dollar terms. To be consistent with the national income accounts, constant-dollar output is based on current-year-weighted deflators. These de flators are derived from the b l s industry, producer, and consumer price index series. (1) Y = Capu[x(AL * L)~w + y(BE * E)~w + Z(CP * P ) - w ] v / w — output = labor services = equipment stocks = plant stocks = efficiency augmenting function for labor BE = efficiency augmenting function for equipment stock CP = efficiency augmenting function for plant stock Cap = capacity utilization where Y L E P AL The final projections of industry output then become the principal input to the industry employment projec tions. The industry employment projections count the number of wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and the unpaid family workers. Historical wage and salary data are based on the b l s establishment series of employment published in Employment and Earnings, and the self-employed and unpaid family worker data are derived from the Bureau of the Census’ Current Population Survey. (A detailed description of the out put and employment data base is available in other pub lications.)23 and x, y, and z are distribution parameters which are greater than zero and sum to unity. w = substitution parameter v = economies of scale u = utilization parameter The elasticity of substitution is equal to 1/(1 + w). This model uses the concept of efficiency units. In essence, the concept assumes that labor and capital in puts are each a composite of quality and quantity, and one unit of quantity is not necessarily equal to one unit of quality. Quality and quantity are differentiated by the respective functions AL and L for labor; BE and E for equipment stock; and CP and P for plant stock. 23Time Series Data f o r Input-Output Industries, Bulletin 2018 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, March 1979), and an updated version to be published in 1981. 24 These considerations suggested that an estimator such as Zellner’s minimum distance estimator should be used. Zellner’s estimator involved stacking the regres sion, allowing the errors of the labor equation and the errors of the capital equation to interact to achieve con sistent estimates. However, preliminary tests indicated severe problems in achieving convergence with the Zellner estimator.24 To maintain the substitution parameter in both the capital and labor equations, and to conserve degrees of freedom, the two regressions were stacked and estimated with ordinary least squares. This meant that the errors of the labor equation and the capital equation were jointly minimized. This hybrid ap proach yielded 26 observations for each industry—two equations with 13 observations per equation. In addition to the output and employment data base, this model also relied on industry capital stocks data from the Economic Growth industry data base. These stocks are documented in another bls publication.25 The efficiency functions, AL, BE, and CP, are mea sured by technical change as approximated by a time trend. These efficiency functions are: It T im e (2) A L = a0 e (3) BE = b0 e (4) C P = Co e et T im e pt T im e The parameter It is the elasticity of labor efficiency with respect to pure technical change; et is the elasticity of equipment efficiency with respect to technical change; and pt is the elasticity of plant efficiency with respect to technical change. Assuming competitive factor imputa tions, it can be demonstrated that (5) Lt = a0 + a,Yt + a2Capt + a3 Time where L, Y, and Cap are expressed in natural logs and a0 = scalar ai = 1/v a2 = u/v a3 = lt/v Solving the model Average weekly hours for each industry were pro jected by relating the change in the current year’s work week to the change in the current year’s output plus a constant term. This is written: (6) Et = b0 + b,Yt + b2Capt + b 3Time where E, Y, and Cap are expressed in natural logs - and b0 = scalar b, = 1/v b2 = u/v b3 - et/v (8) Change in workweekt = constant + a * change in outputt Finally, the employment estimates were an identity — labor hours derived in equation (5) divided by the work week. (7) Pt = Co + c,Yt + c2Capt + c3Time where P, Y, and Cap are expressed in natural logs and Co = scalar c, = 1/v c2 = u/v c3 = pt/v (9) Jobst = labor hourst/workweekt* (52) Wage and salary employment was computed as a con stant share of total jobs, based on the historical time trend. After the equations of the mode! produced their in itial values, the projections of jobs and hours were scal ed to the total jobs and hours used in the macro model. Finally, the results were reviewed and, where they dif fered sharply from expectations with no valid reason for the deviation, an adjustment was made. These adjust ments were usually required when the historical and projected output trends were very divergent, such as in the energy industries; when the output and employment series were unrelated, such as in some transportation in dustries; and when the labor productivity trend implied negative employment, such as for wooden containers, leather products, and leather tanning. Estimation. There were several considerations in choos ing an estimator of this aggregate multifactor product model. First, the structure of technology is character ized by the input demand equations (5), (6), and (7). A key element of this characterization is the concept of in terrelated demand functions. The estimator of this model had to maintain this concept. To accomplish this, it was assumed that deviation of the labor, equipment stock, and plant stock services from the logarithmic fac tor demand equations were the result of random errors in cost minimizing behavior. A second consideration was that the substitution parameter, v, appeared in equations (5), (6), and (7) in the a’s, b’s, and c’s. Estimates of v with ordinary least squares would depend upon which equation was used. The estimation of this factor demand model had to en sure that identical values of v were obtained from each equation. Finally, degrees of freedom posed a problem. There were only 16 years of available data. “ Arnold Zellner, “ An Efficient Method for Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation,” Journal o f the American Statistical A ssociation, No. 57, pp. 348-68. Capital Stocks Estimates f o r Input-Output Industries: Sources and Data, Bulletin 2034 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, September 1979). 25 Disaggregation! of results industry expressing employment as a function of total civilian employment, the level of the Armed Forces, output of the corresponding economic growth sector (156-order), and employment at the appropriate ag gregate 2-digit Sic level. An example of the form the equations took is: The factor demand model was estimated for only 76 industries, due to the limited amount of employee com pensation data which is an input in the estimation of labor services. In order to expand the results to the 156 industries in the Economic Growth system, least squares time trends of labor productivity and average weekly hours were computed for each of the 156 industries and combined with the 156-order output projections to cal culate hours and employment. Then, these estimates were scaled to the projections from the factor demand model. Further disaggregations were required in order to de velop occupational projections. Occupational forecasts were estimated at the 3-digit sic level, totaling about 450 individual industries. Only wage and salary employment data were prepared at this level. The estimates of jobs at this level of detail were based on an equation for each Wage and salary jobs = a0+ ai (total unemployment rate) -l- a2 (Armed Forces) -(- a3 (output of corresponding economic growth sector) + a4 (wage and salary employ ment at corresponding 2digit industry) The coefficients were estimates using ordinary least squares. The results of these equations were scaled to the wage and salary employment projections of the 156-order industries. 26 ©hapSdir 7„ Occupational Employment Projections Wag® and salary workers in OES surwey industries The method used to develop the 1990 occupational projections incorporated the industry-occupational ma trix as the basic analytical tool. The general approach was to develop current (1978) estimates of occupation al staffing patterns of industries, project these patterns to the target year of the projections (1990), and multi ply the projected patterns by projected industry em ployment levels. The products, projected occupational employment by industry, were then summed across in dustries to derive an estimate of projected total employ ment by occupation. This basic approach has been used by the BLS to develop occupational projections since the mid-1960’s. The step-by-step procedures used in developing the 1978-90 projections, however, were somewhat differ ent than in previous years, in large part because the primary data base for occupational employment changed from the decennial census and the Current Population Survey to the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Surveys. Procedures had to be modi fied with the change in data base largely because the new data base resulted in a shorter historical series and because of changes in occupational and industry clas sifications. As a result of these changes, the size of the matrix in the 1978-90 projections increased to 1,678 de tailed occupations in 378 industries (primarily the 3-dig it SIC level detail) from 377 occupations and 201 in dustries in the 1970 census based-matrix. Base year estimates. Data on occupational employment of wage and salary workers were derived from the OES surveys for all industries except agriculture and private households, which are not included in the OES survey program, and education, which is included but for which data were not yet tabulated when the matrix was de veloped. The OES surveys are conducted by mail from a sample of employers in each industry. They are con ducted on a 3-year cycle—manufacturing industries 1 year and nonmanufacturing industries divided in the other 2 years of the cycle. To develop occupational employment estimates for 1978, the occupational staff ing patterns from the most recent OES survey data for each industry were applied to 1978 estimates of total wage and salary employment in that industry. The Bu reau’s Federal-State cooperative establishment survey (CES) was the source of the annual average industry employment. The 1978 staffing patterns were based on OES surveys of manufacturing industries in 1977; non manufacturing, except trade, transportation, communi cation, and public utilities industries and State and lo cal government, in 1978; and trade and regulated in dustries and State and local governments in 1979. In some industries, employment data in some detailed occupations were not collected in the OES surveys be cause the numbers were too small to be measured ac curately and because the survey questionnaire in each industry was limited to 200 occupations found in that industry. To develop total employment estimates for each occupation not included in a survey questionnaire, a procedure was used whereby detailed occupational employment could be disaggregated from the appropri ate survey residual that included the detailed occupa tion. Data collected in the 1970 census provided the raw data to disaggregate the survey residuals. In developing the procedures for preparing the QESsurvey-based matrix, a decision was made to use the disaggregation procedure only for occupations for which OES survey data were believed to account for at least 90 percent of total wage and salary worker em ployment in the occupation. As a result of this decision, about 400 OES survey occupations were collapsed into 0®¥el@piing bas® year emptoymeoit ©staates and projections Separate estimates of current employment were de veloped for wage and salary workers, self-employed workers, and unpaid family workers. Data on wage and salary worker occupational employment were devel oped in an industry-occupational matrix format. Esti mates of occupational employment of self-employed and unpaid family workers were developed at the total (all industry) level only. They were added to the total of wage and salary workers to derive total employment by detailed occupation for the entire economy. The method used required the development of base year employment estimates and then the projections. 27 year. These initially developed mechanical projections were then reviewed in detail for consistency with knowledge about technological change and other fac tors affecting the occupational composition of indus tries. Changes in the ratios developed through analyti cal judgments were placed in an updated matrix which was iterated to force it to add to 100 percent in each industry. The final step in the procedure was to apply the projected staffing pattern to projected industry em ployment totals. residuals in the OES-survey-based matrix. The disag gregation procedure was used, however, to estimate employment in selected industries for 200 occupations. The proportion of total national employment estimated through the procedure was less than 4 percent. Total wage and salary worker employment in the agriculture and private household industries was devel oped from data in the Current Population Survey. These data are not strictly comparable with data developed in the CES. The CPS is a count of persons where each person is counted once in his or her primary job; the CES and OES are counts of jobs and a person is counted in all jobs he or she holds. Also, in the CPS, data in clude workers only 16 years of age and older. In the CES and OES, workers younger than 16 may be in cluded because the data are based on payroll records. Workers on unpaid absences are counted in the CPS, but excluded from the CES. The occupational distributions of wage and salary workers in the agriculture and private household in dustries were based on the 1978 census-based matrix. Those estimates were based on 1970 census data mod ified by 1971-78 CPS trends in large occupations in these industries. Since the occupational configuration of the matrix was based on the OES survey classifica tion scheme, the 1978 census matrix employment data for 377 detailed occupations were distributed into the 1,678 detailed occupations in the OES-based matrix. In this procedure, CPS data were generally used as control totals, which were distributed into appropriate detailed OES-survey-matrix occupations. This distribution was based on established relationships between the Census and OES occupational classifications. Many analytical judgments were necessary to establish relationships for many occupations because a perfect match between one or more OES and one or more CPS occupations was not always possible. The initial 1978 matrix, which provided occupation al employment by industry developed through the pro cedures indicated above, was reviewed in detail on a cell-by-cell basis. The focus of the review was on the estimates generated through the disaggregation proce dure. A procedure was used to update computer gen erated estimates where necessary. In the review, virtu ally no detailed occupational cells derived from staff ing patterns based on OES-survey data were changed, except for data in residual categories to which data were either added or subtracted as needed because of changes in cells for detailed occupations resulting from disaggregation procedures. Difficulties encountered using the OES survey The first step in developing the 1990 projections for employment covered in the OES surveys was to devel op data for the last two OES survey rounds for each industry to use as a base for developing trends in ratios. The objective was to compile national data for each occupation in each industry from one survey round to the next. However, many difficulties were encountered in this procedure because of changes between the last two survey rounds in industry definitions, occupation al changes on survey forms, and geographical coverage. Industry definition. Periodically the Standard Industri al Classification System used as the basis for survey universes is changed. For the last two OES survey rounds providing data for the 1978-90 matrix, several industries were affected by an SIC change. As a result, trends could not be developed because data were not comparable. In these cases, the data from the last sur vey round were held constant at the 1978 level in 1990 for the initial projected matrix. Trends were developed only in industries in which 95 percent or more of em ployment was comparable in the 1967 and 1972 SIC revisions. Occupational changes on survey forms. Between the last two survey rounds, definitions were changed for sev eral survey occupational categories. When occupations were added, trends could not be developed for these occupations because data for two points in time were not available. Furthermore, the category in which the occupation had been included in the previous round could not be projected because of inconsistent defini tions. Similar situations resulted when occupations were deleted from the survey. Geographical coverage. The OES survey has been con ducted since 1971 as a Federal-State cooperative pro gram. All States are not in the program and the num ber in each survey round has changed. Since 1977, BLS has developed national data by surveying the nonpar ticipating States as a whole with funds provided by the National Science Foundation. Because national data were not available for the last two survey rounds in any industry, data from States that participated in both surveys for each industry were summed and used as a Projections. The basic procedure for projecting occu pational employment was to develop data on past trends of the proportions of employment in each industry re presented by each detailed occupation and extend this trend through an extrapolation technique to the target 28 proxy for national data. The number of States in each survey round providing data used in developing trends to 1990 was as follows: Manufacturing, 1974 and 1977, 27; trade, 1975 and 1978, 19; and other nonmanufactur ing, 1975 and 1978, 29. The development of trends, therefore, excluded some States that may have had sig nificant employment in a specific occupation. In devel oping projections in the future, this weakness will be eliminated as national data will become available for two points in time beginning with the results of the 1980 survey. Projecting the ratios in OES survey industries In projecting occupational staffing patterns of indus tries in previous projection cycles, decennial census data were extrapolated into the future based on decade-todecade changes. Considerable analysis and review to identify the factors that caused changes in staffing pat terns resulted in many changes to the mechanically de veloped extrapolated ratios. A review of the 1975 oc cupational projections done just prior to the develop ment of the most recent 1990 projections (based on OES survey data) indicated that the major cause of errors in the projections was incorrect projections of occupa tional ratios. An intensive effort, therefore, was devot ed to research on methods of projecting OES-surveybased staffing patterns. In general, the research tested the merits of a varie ty of extrapolation techniques. The results of these tests indicated that first approximations of the projected ra tios could be developed better, on average, through an exponential method than other extrapolation techniques. In this method, an annual rate of change was estimated for the historical period, and this rate was applied to the most current year’s slot to derive the projected year. There was, however, a question whether this method produced any better results than using current patterns in the projected matrix. In the tests, use of current staff ing patterns in the projected years generally produced better results, on average, than any extrapolation tech nique. However, for large occupations that were" not affected by any problems related to changes in survey definitions or SIC problems, the exponential extrapola tion technique generally outperformed the constant ra tio estimates. Since the tests were performed for data over a short period of time and the exponential meth od worked well for large occupations representing a very significant proportion of employment, this tech nique was chosen. However, the research also con firmed earlier convictions that ratios developed through mechanical means must undergo intensive analytical review. To overcome the problems of comparability of sur veys, only those occupations that did not change defi nitions between the last two surveys and were found in industries that did not change SIC content were pro 29 jected through the exponential extrapolation technique to 1990. All other ratios were held constant at the 1978 level in the initial 1990 matrix. The initial projected staffing pattern in each industry was then applied to projected industry employment to tals for wage and salary workers to develop the pre liminary 1990 occupational projections. These projec tions were analyzed in detail over a 6-month period based on studies of occupations and industries conduct ed during preparation of the Occupational Outlook Hand book. Factors considered included changes in produc tion methods, technological changes affecting occupa tional mix, changes in product mix of industries, changes in average size of establishments in industries, and oth er economic factors affecting specific occupations. In addition, some occupations were projected inde pendently of the matrix based on the relationship of the occupation to more closely associated variables. For example, projections of elementary and secondary school teachers were based on estimates of the schoolage population and pupil-teacher ratios. Projections de veloped in this manner were placed in the matrix and adjustments in the staffing patterns for other occupa tions were made when necessary. In the analytical procedure, relationships were estab lished between occupations in the census-based matrix and the OES-survey-based matrix to obtain the benefit of a longer time series. Changes were made in the ini tial projected OES matrix based on the analysis de scribed above, and an iteration procedure was used to assure that the staffing patterns in each industry added to 100 percent. The resulting ratios were applied to to tal projected employment of wage and salary workers in each industry to develop the final occupational pro jections of wage and salary workers. Wag© and salary workers, rt®n°GES survey industries Developing past trends. For the agriculture, private households, and education industries, past trends in oc cupational distribution were developed based on data in the 1970 decennial census and Current Population Surveys conducted during the 1970’s. Since 1971, the occupational configuration of this data series was that used in the 1970 census and, therefore, different from the OES survey configuration that was used in the 1978-90 OES-survey-based matrix. However, there was no need to adjust data within the historical series since the data were comparable for each year from 1971 to 1978. Some adjustments were made to the staffing pat terns in education based on limited available OES sur vey data. Projecting the ratios The initial projected 1990 ratios for these two indus try sectors were taken directly from the 1990 census- Data for self-employed and unpaid family workers were developed only at the all-industry level because of the unreliability of these data at the detailed indus try level. based matrix developed by the Bureau in 1978. These projected ratios were analyzed based on data that be came available after the earlier matrix was developed and a few ratios were adjusted. The census-based oc cupational distribution was converted to the OES sur vey distribution based on the same distribution of cen sus categories to OES survey categories used to devel op the 1978 wage and salary base-year matrix described above. The projected ratios were then applied to the 1990 industry projections developed for the 1978-90 OESsurvey-based matrix. The resulting employment and ra tios were reviewed in detail in the same manner as the wage and salary workers for OES-survey-based indus tries. Changes in patterns that resulted from this review were incorporated in the final matrix. Projections. To develop the projections, the percent distributions of self-employed and unpaid family work ers by occupation from the 1971-78 CPS data were ex trapolated to 1990 and forced to add to 100 percent. A distribution of these proportions was made to OES sur vey occupations based on the distribution of 1978 data. These distributions were then reviewed and changes made where deemed appropriate. The resulting distri bution was applied to projected totals for self-employed and unpaid family workers developed through the Bu reau’s economic model. The resulting projected em ployment totals were reviewed for consistency with in formation developed in the course of other occupation al research, and changes were made where necessary. Self-employed and unpaid family workers Base-year estimates. Estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers by occupation were based on 1978 annual averages as in previous census-based ma trices since no alternative data series exist. Similar to the procedure used for wage and salary workers in the agriculture and private household industries, the em ployment data in the detailed census matrix occupations were distributed to the 1,678 occupations in the OESsurvey-based matrix. In general, CPS data were used as control totals that were distributed to appropriate detailed OES survey matrix occupations falling within the CPS definition. The distributions were based large ly on the distribution of OES-survey-based wage and salary employment unless other data were available or analytical judgment indicated that this procedure re sulted in incorrect data. For example, certain jobs found only in government often fell into a broader CPS cat egory which contained self-employed and unpaid fam ily workers. In such cases, a distribution was not made based on the wage and salary worker distribution. Total occupational employment To develop total employment estimates by occupa tion, employment of wage and salary workers was added to totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers. Unlike previous estimates of total national employment, the totals represented the number of jobs by occupa tion, not the number of persons employed by occupa tion.26These totals are different because one person may have more than one job. The difference between the number of jobs and number of persons employed in 1990 is roughly 7 percent. 26The total number o f jobs was even higher than the number shown because persons who were self-employed as a secondary job were in the wage and salary worker totals and not in the self-employed to tals. They would report only their primary job in the CPS, which was the source o f data on the self-employed. Similarly, wage and salary workers in agriculture and private households were only counted once even if they held more than one job because the CPS was also the source o f data for these industries. 30 Chapter 8. Planned Changes in the Projection System Labor lore© supply model Research is currently underway to develop a labor force supply model. The objective is to examine the effect on labor force participation of economic and de mographic factors in order to provide a behavioral model as an alternative future basis for deriving these projections. The procedures being utilized involve estimation of labor force participation equations for various age, sex, and marital status cohorts. Specifications of these equa tions include wage, income, education, presence of children, and other explanatory variables. The data are derived primarily from the March Current Population Survey and are organized by geographic region in or der to form a body of pooled time series-cross section observations. A typical labor force participation equa tion includes such variables as the unemployment rate, wages, nonearned income, industrial mix, taxes, and ec onomic-demographic variables designed to capture the movements in labor force behavior of the various co horts under examination. In general, preliminary empirical results confirm many expectations about the effect of economic and demographic influences on labor force behavior. Sev eral variables, such as wages, industry mix, and the population cohort are statistically important determi nants of labor force variation. Other variables, such as presence of children, schooling, and pensions, contrib ute substantially to the explanation of labor force par ticipation for specific population groups. These findings will facilitate an analysis of the underlying reasons for developments in labor force behavior. Sndustry-oeeupational employment With the merging of the labor force, economic, and occupational projection programs, efforts began to com puterize the linkages and to introduce explicit feedbacks between the respective programs. Currently, the de tailed economic projections of industry labor demand are the determinant of occupational demand projec tions. Should the initial industry employment projec tions be inconsistent with either the projected staffing patterns or total occupational projections, the projec tions would be reviewed and the inconsistency elimi nated if necessary. This is usually the approach when 31 the demand for a particular occupation is unique to an individual industry. In line with this approach, a respecification of the labor demand equations for individual industries is un der consideration. The current labor demand equations are based on a general specification: An industry’s em ployment is related to the industry’s output plus tech nical trends and capacity. Because of the final demand and input-output projections, this output projection should embody shifting demographic, energy, and gov ernment expenditure trends. However, for selected in dustries, such as education or medical services, occu pational surpluses or shortages visibly affect the indus try’s projected employment as much as the demand fac tor. The surplus or shortage of people to fill specific occupations should affect relative wages, and these, in turn, should encourage either capital/labor substitution or technical innovations. Research is now underway to deal with such occupational supply phenomena. Job openings Projections of occupational employment require more detailed information about the number of people expected to have jobs at some future time. By compar ing projected with current employment data, the num ber of job openings resulting from growth in an occu pation, if employment increases—or the number lost, if employment declines—can be determined. While use ful, employment-change data alone do not identify the total number of jobs available. Total job-openings data are an obvious part of the assessment of supply and de mand relationships. There are several sources of job openings in an oc cupation: (a) Increase in employment due to the econ omy’s growth, and (b) the need to replace individuals who transfer to another occupation or who retire, die, or leave the labor force for some other reason. The la bor force, macro, and industry models and the indus try-occupation matrix, described earlier, were used in projecting employment and estimating growth. In the past, working-life tables were used to estimate replace ment needs resulting from death and labor force sepa rations. These replacement needs estimates had limita tions, however, because: ment needs, but are of special interest because they per mit comparisons of matched and retrospective data for January 1977-78. These comparisons fostered addition al confidence in the reliability of merged CPS matched and retrospective data about movements into, out of, and between occupations. As a result, the merged and retrospective data will be used in the preparation of the 1982-83 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Projections and Training Data to esti mate replacement needs, to document descriptions of occupational movements already being presented, and to add information not currently available. For exam ple, the data will document information about the large number of jobs for food counter workers resulting from the need to replace young people who temporarily leave the labor force. By using merged CPS matched and retrospective data about occupational movements and by describing how jobs are created and filled, informa tion about employment opportunities is expected to im prove significantly. 1. The estimates of labor force separations were based on working- life tables that pertained to the entire population and, therefore, did not reflect ac tual differences in patterns among occupations. 2. The estimates did not include all persons who left the labor force temporarily. 3. The estimates did not include job openings re sulting from occupational transfers. Because replacement needs are a far more significant source of job openings than economic growth in almost all occupations, improved data have been the focus of recent research efforts. Data are being developed from the Current Population Survey on the need to replace individuals who transfer to another occupation, retire, die, or leave the labor force for some other reason. The BLS publication Measuring Labor Force Movements: A New Approach. (Report 581) explained the need for im proved data about replacement needs and described preliminary efforts to develop this information. The longitudinal character of the CPS results in data being collected for the same individual in surveys 12 months apart. By tabulating occupational and labor force status data, annual data on movements into and out of occupations are obtained. Because individuals are identified by matching household, age, race, and sex information, these longitudinal data are termed CPS matched data. However, CPS matched data overstate occupational changes. To overcome this weakness, CPS retrospec tive data from supplemental questions on occupational mobility were combined with CPS matched data to es timate occupational transfers. The longitudinal data which result from combining CPS matched and CPS retrospective data are termed merged CPS matched and retrospective data. Since the 1974-75 data were published in Report 581, 1977-78 CPS matched and retrospective data have been developed. These more recent data are not only of in terest for the information they provide about replace Evaluation of projections As indicated, for over 15 years BLS has developed a series of labor force, economic, and occupational pro jections. The first set of these comprehensive projec tions were developed in 1965 for the year 1970. Subse quent projections were developed for 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. Recent evaluations of 1975 projections in clude, “An Evaluation of BLS Projections of 1975 Pro duction and Employment,” by Paul Christy and Karen Horowitz (Monthly Labor Review, August 1979) and “Evaluating the 1975 Projections of Occupational Em ployment,” by Max Carey (Monthly Labor Review, June 1980). Work has recently begun on evaluating the 1980 projections. This work involves assembling the concep tual and benchmark changes which might affect the differences between actual and projected data and as sembling the methodologies of each 1980 projection to determine the sources of errors. 32 Appendix A. Labor Force Projection Scenarios Tab§® A-1. Tftra® alternative projection scenarios for women Measured rate of increase Age High growth1 Low growth Middle growth 1960 to 1979 1972 to 1979 White 16 and 1 7 ........................... SR: RG 18 and 1 9 ........................... SR: RG Short-run estimate Short-run estimate LR LR 1.20 .81 1.30 1.31 SR SR SR SR SR _ - 1.42 2.55 2.37 1.91 1.62 SR SR SR SR .64 .32 .11 .25 .92 .40 .08 -.23 -.22 -.15 -.05 -.14 -.08 -.12 0.29 .06 0.75 .59 20 to 2 4 .............................. 25 to 2 9 .............................. 30 to 3 4 ....... ....................... 35 to 3 9 .............................. 40 to 44 .............................. SR: SR: SR: SR: SR: RG RG RG RG RG LR: LR: LR: LR: LR: 45 50 55 60 LR: LR: LR: LR: RG RG RG RG Long-run Long-run Long-run Long-run to to to to 49 .............................. 54 .............................. 59 .............................. 6 4 .............................. Relative growth1 Relative growth1 Relative growth1 Relative growth1 Relative grow th1 estimate estimate estimate estimate 65 to 6 9 .............................. Constant 70 to 7 4 .............................. Constant 75 and o v e r........................ Constant Half of LR Half of LR Half of LR SR SR SR 16 and 1 7 ........................... SR: RG 18 and 1 9 ........................... SR: RG Short-run estimate Short-run estimate LR LR 20 25 30 35 40 to to to to to 24 .............................. 2 9 .............................. 3 4 .............................. 39 .............................. 44 .............................. SR: SR: SR: SR: SR: RG RG RG RG RG LR: LR: LR: LR: LR: 45 50 55 60 to to to to 49 .............................. 54 .............................. 59 .............................. 6 4 .............................. LR: LR: LR: LR: RG RG RG RG Long-run Long-run Long-run Long-run - Black and other 65 to 6 9 .............................. Constant 70 to 74 .............................. Constant 75 and o v e r........................ Constant Relative Relative Relative Relative Relative growth growth growth growth growth SR SR SR SR SR 1 ' ' 1 ' estimate estimate estimate estimate Half of LR Half of LR Half of LR 1 Different from the 1978 projection. NOTE: LR denotes estimated over the 1960 to 1979 period; SR _ - .92 1.38 2.13 1.32 .95 SR SR SR SR -.16 -.18 -.22 -.24 .93 .26 -.18 .05 SR SR SR -.22 -.27 -.12 -.11 - -.42 -.16 denotes estimated over the 1972 to 1979 period; and RG denotes the use of a relative growth model. 33 Table A-2. Three alternative projections scenarios for men Measured rate of increase Age High growth Low growth Middle growth 1960 to 1979 1972 to 1979 White 16 and 1 7 ........................... SR 18 and 1 9 ........................... SR 20 to 24 .............................. SR Average of LR & SR Average of LR & SR Average of LR & SR LR LR LR 0.66 .51 .01 0.88 .74 .28 25 to 2 9 .............................. LR: Up 30 to 34 .............................. LR: Up 35 to 39 .............................. LR: Up Long-run estimate Long-run estimate Long-run estimate SR SR SR -.10 -.36 -.20 .05 .20 .14 45 to 49 .............................. Constant 50 to 54 .............................. Constant Long-run estimate Long-run estimate SR SR SR - 12 -.17 -.31 01 -.12 -.06 Half Half Half Half Half SR SR SR SR SR -.27 -.55 -.60 -.26 -.31 -.75 -1.47 -1.80 -.56 -.32 -0.67 -.23 -.74 - 55 60 65 70 75 to 59 .............................. to 64 .............................. to 69 .............................. to 74 .............................. and o v e r........................ Constant1 Constant1 Constant1 Constant1 Constant1 of of of of of LR LR LR LR LR Black and other 16 and 1 7 ........................... Convergence 18 and 1 9 ........................... Convergence 20 to 2 4 .............................. Convergence LR2 LR2 LR2 25 30 35 40 45 50 to to to to to to .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. Convergence Convergence Convergence Convergence Convergence Convergence Long-run Long-run Long-run Long-run Long-run Long-run estimate estimate estimate estimate estimate estimate SR SR SR SR SR SR -.34 -.23 -.34 -.34 -.44 -.60 .23 .01 .23 .23 .08 .02 55 60 65 70 75 to 59 .............................. to 64 .............................. to 69 .............................. to 74 .............................. and o v e r........................ Convergence Convergence Constant Constant Constant Long-run estimate Half of LR Half of LR Half of LR Half of LR SR SR SR SR SR -.56 -.66 -.56 -.25 -.14 -.59 -.71 -.71 -.57 -.14 1 2 rate 3 rate 29 34 39 44 49 54 Different from the 1978 projection. Indicates the use of the higher 95-percent confidence of change; this reflects data limitations for young black Indicates the use of the lower 95-percent confidence of change; this reflects data limitations for young black LR3 LR3 LR3 interval for the men. interval for the men. 34 NOTE: LR denotes estimated over the 1970 to 1979 period; SR denotes estimated over the 1972 to 1979 period; RG denotes the use of a relative growth model, and convergence indicates moving the black labor force participation to the white rate in the year 2000. Appendix B. i¥3acr©@con@mie Model” Equations, Identities, and Variables (Abbreviations for variables are explained at the end of the appendix.) Supply sector 1. ECLF = LFC * (1.0 -U ) 2. ECJOBS = -0.751 + 1.078 ECLF - 0.199 U - 0.344 DM59 + 0.303 DM67 - 0.37 DM72 (-0 .6 ) (51.1) (-4 .5 ) (-1 .7 ) (1.2) (-1 .3 ) R-squared D.W. 3. Estimation period: 1947-79 EMPE/POP = -0.003 + 0.098 PUREC/POP (-8 .6 ) (75.2) R-squared D.W. 4. = 0.999 = 1.458 = 0.996 = 1.061 Estimation period: 1952-79 ln(EMPNE/PQP) = - 4.469 + 1.921 ln(PURNEC/PQP) - 0.186 ln(URBAN/POP) (-14.2) (9.5) (-0 .3 ) R-squared D.W. = 0.988 = 0.462 Estimation period: 1952-79 5. ENFJBS = ECJOBS - (EF + EMPE + EMPNE + EFJBS) 6. AAHF = 1965.150 - 13.656 U - 9.037 U (t- 1) + 27.839 FPOP + 7.623 TIME (9.9) (-2 .1 ) (-1 .3 ) (3.3) (1.4) R-squared D.W. 7. = 0.877 = 0.960 Estimation period: 1948-79 A A H N F = 2392.730 - 7.728 U + 4.661 U (t--1) - 7.764 FLFPR - 3.365 TIME (54.2) (-5 .5 ) (-4 .8 ) (-8 .1 ) (4.7) R-squared D.W. = 0.994 = 1.950 Estimation period: 1948-79 35 8. MHF = AAHF * EFJBS 9. MHNF = AAHNF * ENFJBS 10. MHIF = MHF/MHF(1972) 11. MHINF = MHNF/MHNF(1972) 12. KEF = K E F (t-l) + IEF - DEF 13. KENF = K E N F (t-l) + IENF - BENF 14. KSF = K S F (t-l) + ISF - DSF 15. KSNF = K SN F (t-l) + ISNF - DSNF 16. KINV = K IN V (t-l) + IVCHG 17. KHS = K H S (t-l) + IR - ORES 18. IKF = (KSF + KEF)/(KSF(1972) + KEF(1972)) 19. IKNF = (KSNF + KENF)/(KSNF(1972) + KENF(1972)) 20. ln(GNPFC/IKADJF) = 2.881 + 0.0002 U * U + 0.450 !n(MHIF/IKABJF) + 0.013 T29 (27.7) (2.8) (11.3) (5.5) R-squared D.W. = 0.957 = 1.453 Estimation period: 1929-40, 1946-79 21. ln(GNPNFC/IKADJNF) = 6.065 - 0.0002 U * U + 0.805 ln(MHINF/IKADJNF) + 0.020 T29 (192.1) (-5 .0 ) (22.0) (31.0) R-squared == 0.990 B.W. = 0.874 22. 1929-40, 1946-79 SERFCC = 0.922 + 0.855 * (EF * 13.588) - 1.716 CREEP2 + 0.122 TIME (1.1) (24.1) (-2 .1 ) (7.5) R-squared = 0.995 D.W. = 0.940 23. Estimation period: Estimation period: 1947-79 SERFMC = -0.221 + 1.090 (EMIPA * 6.613) - 6.334 CREEP2 -0.085 TIME (-0 .3 ) (37.6) (-3 .4 ) (-2 .5 ) R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 1.072 Estimation period: 1947-79 36 24. SEREDC = 3.770 + 0.80! (EMPE * 8.288) + 0.219 TIME (23.0) (39.6) (7.1) R-squared - 0.999 D.W. = 1.281 25. Estimation period: 1947-79 SERNEC = -0.707 -1- 0.852 (EMPNE * 8.407) + 0.247 TIME -2.874 CREEP2 (-0 .5 ) (12.5) (5.2) (-1 .9 ) R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 0.980 Estimation period: 1947-79 26. GGP = SERFCC + SERFMC + SEREDC + SERNEC 27. GNPTC = GNPFC + GNPNFC + GGP income sector 28. CPCDA = 15.048 - 2.840 U + 1.078 (PRICE + PRICE(t- l) + PRICE(t-2)) + 0.166 GNPPK (2.7) (-3 .3 ) (3.1) (30.9) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.523 R-squared = 0.993 Estimation period: D.W. - 1.365 29. 1949-79 CDACE = -10.353 + 0.051 K STK (t-l) (-24.3) (125.1) where KSTK = KEF + KSF + KENF + KSNF R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 0.143 30. Estimation period: 1947-79 CDACB = -7.089 + 0.036 KSTK(t- 1 ) + 0.007 K ST K D l(t-l) + 0.008 KSTKD2(t-l) (-3 .1 ) (10.2) (5.5) (7.2) where KSTK - KEF + KSF + KENF + KSNF and D1 is entered from 1954 on and D2 from 1962 on. R-squared — 0.995 D.W. = 1.442 31. 1947-79 CPTFD = 2.925 + 0.731 TRCP * (CPCDA - CDAKB) (6.0) (48.7) R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 0.824 32. Estimation period: Estimation period: 1947-79 DIV = -0.424 + 1.067 O lV (t-l) + 0.106 (IFC - IFIX) * DEFI (-1 .4 ) (57.2) (3.6) where IFIX = IEF + ISF + IENF + ISNF 37 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.472 33. Estimation period: 1947-79 IYA = 2.751 - 97.123 ((DGNPP - DGNPP(t- l))/DGNPP(t-1 )) + 0.099 IVCHG - 0.021 K IN V (t-l) (1.6) (-3 .3 ) (1.0) (-1 .6 ) - 20.380 EMBGO (-7 .5 ) R-squared = 0.890 D.W. = 3.203 Estimation period: 1948-79 34. IFK = CPCDA - (CPTFD + CPTST) 35. UCP = IFK - (CDAKE - CDAKB) - IVA - DIV 36. CCANCC = 1.787 + 0.025 K H S (t-l) + 0.0002 K H S (t-l) * TIME (0.4) (3.7) (1.1) R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 0.253 Estimation period: 37. CCANCK = CCANCC * DFNCCA 38. IBTFD = 6.134 (23.2) 4- 0.004 GNPPK + 0.026 TRG * FU + 0.774 DMKW (2.8) (8.5) (2.0) R-squared = 0.984 D.W. = 1.470 39. IBTST = 4.284 (4.1) 4- IPFD = 1.466 (9.1) 4- Estimation period: Estimation period: 0.004 (I3Y5Y * DFP) (10.0) 4- R-squared = 0.993 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.127 41. 1947-79 0.710 (GDSTK 4- SERSTK + TRSTP - G A K )(t-l) - 0.527 U (107.0) (-2 .3 ) R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.223 40. 1947-79 1948-79 0.002 (I3Y5Y * D FP)(t- 1) - 0.0004 (I3Y5Y * D FP)(t-2) (2.8) (-0 .7 ) 1952-79 SICE = 0.431 + 0.529 SICTOT (3.4) (167.7) R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 0.376 Estimation period: 1947-79 38 42. SICU = 0.508 + 0.392 ((CEP + GGP) - SICE) * TRU (5.0) (27.3) R-squared = 0.966 D.W. = 1.445 43. 1947-79 SICO = 1.187 + 0.900 TRO * CSIC * (CEP + GGP) - SICE) * WB/MFI (2.2) (49.8) R-squared = 0.990 D.W. . = 0.808 44. Estimation period: Estimation period: 1947-79 SICST = -0.070 + 0.136 (SERSTK - (ES * SICE/(ECLF + EMBLS))) (-1 .5 ) (129.5) where ES = EMPE + EMPNE R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 0.789 45. SICTOT = SICU + SICO + SICST + SICFD 46. IPC = -2.325 + 0.019 PI + 0.419 I3M (-8.7)) (16.3) (2.6) R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 0.429 47. Estimation period: 1947-79 PI = GNPTK - CDAKE - CCANCK - IBTFD - IBTST - SD + SLSFD + SLSST - CPIVA + (CDAKE - CDAKB) - SICTOT + TRAN + DIV + IPFD + IPST + IPC 48. ln(MFI) = 6.833 + 0.865 ln(1.0 - (U/100.0)) + 1.052 In(GNPTK/(ECLF + EMBLS)) (87.5) (2.3) (78.2) + 1.291 ln((PI + SICTOT - SICE)/GNPTK) (5.2) R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.679 49. 1947-79 PTFD = -5.865 + 0.051 PI + 0.362 PI * TRMFI (-4 .7 ) (2.9) (3.8) R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.373 50. Estimation period: Estimation period: 1947-79 PTST = -4.431 + 0.029 PI + 0.532 P T S T (t-l) - 0.253 TIME (-2 .5 ) (2.4) (2.2) (-1 .9 ) R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.705 Estimation period: 1947-79 39 51. DPIK = PI - (PTFD + PTST) 52. PS = -26.329 + 0.080 DPIK - 0.321 I3Y5Y + 20.070 D FD PI/D FD PI(t-1) (-0 .8 ) (8.5) (-0 .3 ) (0.6) R-squared = 0.959 D.W. = 1.947 53. Estimation period: 1947-79 PCEK = DPIK - PS - IPC - PTR Demand s@©t@r 54. PCED = -80.295 + 0.190 (PCEC) + 0.293 I R ( t- l) -0.490 U + 59.916 (DPIK/DPIK(t -1 ) ) / (-3 .3 ) (18.5) (2.3) (-0 .9 ) (2.5) (DFDPI/DFDPI(t -1 )) -1098.710 IPC/DPIK (-5 .3 ) where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.468 55. Estimation period: 1947-79 PCEN = 50.886 + 0.319 (PCEC) + 770.141 IPC/DPIK - 0.460 U (26.7) (69.5) (6.0) (-1 .3 ) where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 0.964 56. Estimation period: 1947-79 PCES = -38.429 + 0.397 (PCEC) + 0.598 U + 0.050 KHS (-11.1) (11.2) (1.2) (2.4) where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.211 57. Estimation period: 1947-79 IENF = -7.301 + 0.190 IFC + 0.732 IENF(t- 1 ) + 0.0002 K E N F(t-l) + 118.350 (IFC/(KENF + KSNF)/ (-1 .9 ) (2.9) (4.2) (0.01) (0.8) U )(t-1) + 0.083 (GNPNFC - G N PN FC (t-l)) (2.7) R-squared = 0.988 D.W. = 1.349 58. Estimation period: 1947-79 ISNF = 0.604 + 0.017 GNPNFC + 0.618 IS N F (t-l) (0.5) (2.3) (3.8) R-squared = 0.967 D.W. = 1.161 Estimation period: 1947-79 40 59. IVCHG = -42.235 + 0.166 (GNPFC + GNPNFC) - 0.424KINV(t-1 ) KINV(t-1 ) + 13.182/U - 1.197 TIME (-7.1) (6.8) (-7.0) (1.2) (-2.8) R-squared = 0.820 D.W. = 1.742 60. 1947-79 IR = -68.090 - 4.921 I3Y5Y + 1.448 HOUSE + 4.643 DPIC/HOUSE/HOUSE (-7 .9 ) (-4 .1 ) R-squared = 0.945 D.W. = 1.381 61. Estimation period: (5.7) Estimation period: (3.8) 1929-40, 1946-79 M = -6.165 + 0.027 B P IC (t-l) + 0.033 (DPIC - D P IC (t-l)) + 0.383 ((DEFM/DFDPI) (-1 .9 ) (2.0) (1.1) (0.3) - (DEFM(t- l)/DFD PI(t-!))) + 5.123 CPSQR + 0.841 M ( t- l) (2.1) (7.9) R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 2.052 Estimation period: 1947-79 62. PURFDC = SERFMC + SERFCC + GDFDC 63. PUREC/POP = -0.184 + 0.071 (((GNPFC + GNPNFC)/POP)(t-1 )) + 0.513 (GAG * GPCED/POP) (-7 .7 ) (13.3) (1.3) + 0.474 SCHL/POP (5.0) R-squared = 0.991 D.W. = 1.663 64. Estimation period: 1953-79 PURNEC/POP = -0.089 + 0.085 ((GNPFC + GNPNFC)/POP)(t - 1 ) + 0.607 (GAC * (-1 .4 ) (4.4) (2.1) (0.9) (1.0 - GPCED)/POP) + 0.003U R-squared = 0.973 D.W. = 0.538 Estimation period: 1953-79 Priee/wage s@et@r 65. In(DGNPP) = 0.560 + 0.867 ln(ALUL(t - 1)) + 0.132 ln(WPICR) -0.039 ln(U) (17.0) (40.7) (5.7) (-2 .1 ) R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.214 66. Estimation period: 1948-79 CEPM = 4.994 + 60.286 (((GNPFC + GNPNFC)/(MHF + MHNF)) - ((GNPFC + GNPFC)/ (MHF + MHNF))(t—1))/((GNPFC + GNPNFC)/(MHF + MHNF))(t - 1) + 119.426 ((DFDPI - DFDPI(t —1))/OFOPI(t —1)) -0.799U (-4 .5 ) 41 (1L8) R-squared = 0.860 D.W. = 2.091 Estimation period: 67. CPH = C P H (t-l) * CEPM 68. CEP = CPH * (MHF + MHNF) 1947-79 69. ALUL = CEP/(GNPFC + GNPNFC) 70. PRICE = percent change DGNPP - CEPM 71. DEFI = -0.008 + 1.005 DGNPP (-0 .3 ) (34.9) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.723 R-squared = 0.997 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.661 72. DFIV = 0.212 + 0.810 DGNPP (1.8) (5.5) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.159 R-squared = 0.611 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.890 73. 1948-74 DEFX = 0.003 + 0.491 DGNPP + 0.536 DEFM (0.2) (12.8) (23.2) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.953 R-squared = 0.997 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.991 76. 1948-74 (DFDPI - DFDPI(t - l))/DFDPI(t - 1) = 0.003 + 0.901 ((DGNPP - DGNPP(t - l))/DGNPP(t - 1)) 0.7) 09.7) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.189 R-squared = 0.947 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.558 75. 1948-74 DEFRI = -0.272 + 1.229 DGNPP ( - 1.6) ( 12.2) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.968 R-squared = 0.993 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.836 74. 1948-74 1948-74 DFGDS = -0.584 + 1.529 DGNPP (-6 .7 ) (23.2) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.953 R-squared = 0.998 Estimation period: D.W. = 2.096 1948-74 42 77. DFGDF = -0.016 + 1.021 DGNPP (-0 .8 ) (38.8) Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.260 R-squared = 0.990 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.651 78. DFCCA = 0.028 + 0.818 DEFI + 0.163 DGNPP (1.5) (9.4) (1.8) Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.872 R-squared = 0.999 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.571 79. 1948-74 1948-74 DFNCCA = -0.014 + 0.284 DFDPI + 0.755 DGNPP (-0 .4 ) (0.5) (1.2) Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.789 R-squared = 0.996 Estimation period: D.W. = 1.124 1948-74 80. DEFSFC = DEFSFC(t —1) * (percent change DFDPI) 81. DEFSFM = DEFSFM(t - 1 ) * (percent change DRDPI) 82. DEFSS = DEFSS(t - 1) * (percent change DRDPI) 83. DEFGA = DEFGA (t - 1) * (percent change DGNPP) 84. DGNPT = weighted average of DGNPP, DEFSFC, DEFSFM, and DEFSS 85. GNPDC = PCED + PCEN + PCES + IEF + IENF + ISF + ISNF + IVCHG + IR + EXPRT - M + PURFDC 4- PUREC + PURNEC 86. GAP = GNPTC - GNPDC 43 of variables (* denotes an exogenous variable) DEFX Explanation AAHF AAHNF ALUL CCANCC CCANCK CDACB CDACE CDAKB CDAKE CEP CEPM CPCDA CPH CPIVA CPSQR CPTFD CPTST* CREEP2* CSIC* DEF* DEFGA DEFI DEFM* DEFRI DEFSFC DEFSFM DEFSS DENF* DFCCA Average annual private farm manhours, establishment basis Average annual private nonfarm man hours, establishment basis Unit labor cost Noncorporate capital consumption allow ances, constant dollars Noncorporate capital consumption allow ances, current dollars Corporate depreciation allowances, con stant dollars, book value definition, without capital consumption adjust ment (CCA) Corporate depreciation allowances, con stant dollars, with CCA Corporate depreciation allowances, cur rent dollars, without CCA (CDACE*DFCCA) Corporate depreciation allowances, cur rent dollars, with CCA (CDACE*DFCCA) Compensation of employees, private economy Percent change in current dollars com pensation per hour in the private sector Corporate profits plus capital depreciation allowance minus inventory valuation adjustment Private compensation per hour Corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (CPCDA+ IVA-CDAKE) Capacity pressure, defined as (((actual GNP/potential GNP)-0.98)*2) Federal corporate profits taxes State and local (S&L) corporate profits taxes Variable to account for unwarranted grade enhancement during the 1947-69 period Social security coverage as a percent of paid employment Discards of producer durable equipment (PDE), farm Deflator for Federal grants-in-aid Fixed nonresidential investment deflator, 1972=100 DFDPI DFGDF DFGDS DFIV DFNCCA DFP DGNPP DGNPT DIV DMKW* DM59* DM67* DM72* DPIC DPIK DRES* DSF* DSNF* EC JOBS ECLF EF* EFJBS* EMBGO* EMBLS* EMIPA* EMPE EMPNE ENFJBS Imports of goods and services deflator, 1972=100 Residential structures deflator, 1972=100 Federal civilian compensation deflator Military compensation deflator S&L compensation deflator EXPRT* FLFPR* FPOP* FU* 44 Exports of goods and services deflator, 1972=100 Discards of PDE, nonfarm Corporate consumption allowances deflator Disposable personal income deflator Federal purchases less compensation de flator, 1972=100 S&L purchases less compensation defla tor, 1972=100 Change in business inventories deflator, 1972=100 Noncorporate consumption allowances deflator Federal debt proxy Private GNP deflator, 1972=100 Total GNP deflator, 1972=100 Net corporate dividend payments Korean War dummy = 1 for 1951-53 Establishment survey definitional shift = 1 from 1959 Establishment survey definitional shift = 1 from 1967 Establishment survey definitional shift = 1 from 1972 Disposable personal income, constant dol lars (DPIK/DFDPI) Disposable personal income, current dollars Discards of residential structures Discards of structures, farm Discards of structures, nonfarm Civilian employment, establishment basis Civilian employment, labor force basis, age 16 and over Average number of full- and part-time Federal Government general employees Private farm employment, establishment basis Oil embargo dummy = 1 in 1973-74 Level of the Armed Forces, BLS basis Military employment including reserve forces, national income and product ac counts (NIPA) basis S&L government employment in education S&L government employment in noneducation Private nonfarm employment, establish ment basis Exports of goods and services Female labor force participation rate, age 16 and over Total farm population Motor fuel usage GAC* GAK GAP GDFDC* GDSTK GNPDC GNPFC GNPNFC GNPPK GNPTC GNPTK GPCED* HOUSE* IBTFD IBTST IEF* IENF IFC IFK IKF IKADJF IKADJNF IKNF IPC IPFD IPST* IR ISF* ISNF 1VA IVCHNG DM* DY5Y* KEF KENF KHS KINV KSF KSNF LFC* M MFI MHF Federal grants-in-aid to S&L government, constant dollars Federal grants-in-aid to S&L government, current dollars (GAC*DEFGA) Supply GNP less demand GNP, constant dollars Federal purchases of goods and services less compensation, constant dollars S&L government purchases of goods and services less compensation, current dol lars ((PUREC + PURNECMSEREDC + SERNEC)) *OFGDS Demand-side GNP, constant dollars Farm GNP, constant dollars Private nonfarm GNP, constant dollars Private GNP, current dollars ((GNPFC + GNPNFC)*DGNPP) Total supply-side GNP, constant dollars Total supply-side GNP, current dollars ( G NP P K + SERSTK +( SERFCC *BEFSFC) + (SERFMC*DEFSFM)) Education’s share of Federal grants Number of households Federal indirect business taxes S&L indirect business taxes Investment in PDE, farm Investment in equipment, nonfarm Internal funds, constant dollars (IFK/DEFI) Internal funds, current dollars Index of farm capital stock, 1972=100 Farm index of capital adjusted for utiliza tion (IKF*(1.0-U)) Nonfarm index of capital adjusted for uti lization (IKNF*(1.0-U)) Index of nonfarm capital stock, 1972= 100 Interest paid by consumers Net interest paid by Federal Government S&L net interest payments Investment in residential structures Investment in nonresidential structures, farm Investment in nonresidential structures, nonfarm Inventory valuation adjustment Change in the stock of business Yield on 3-month Government bills Yield on 3- and 5-year Government bonds Stock of PDE, farm Stock of PDE, nonfarm Stock of residential structures Stock of business inventories Stock of structures, farm Stock of structures, nonfarm Civilian labor force, 16 years and over Imports of goods and services MHIF MHINF MHNF PCED PCEK PCEN PCES PI POP* PRICE PS PTFD PTR* PTST PUREC PURFDC PURNEC SCHL* SD* SEMP* SEREDC SERFCC SERFMC SERNEC SERSTK SICE SICFD* SICO SICST SICTOT SICU SLSFD* 45 Median family income Private farm manhours, establishment basis Index of farm manhours, 1972=100 Index of nonfarm manhours, 1972=100 Private nonfarm manhours, establishment basis Personal consumption expenditures, dura ble goods, constant dollars Personal consumption expenditures, cur rent dollars Personal consumption expenditures, non durable goods, constant dollars Personal consumption expenditures, serv ices, constant dollars Personal income Total noninstitutional population includ ing Armed Forces stationed abroad Labor price/cost spread, private economy Personal savings, current dollars Federal personal income tax payments Personal transfers to foreigners S&L personal income tax payments S&L purchases, education, constant dollars Federal purchases of goods and services, constant dollars S&L government purchases, noneduca tion, constant dollars Total school enrollment, ages 5-34 Statistical discrepancy Ratio of full-time equivalent employees in the service industries to full-time equiv alent private employees S&L government education compensa tion, constant dollars Federal civilian compensation, constant dollars Federal military compensation, constant dollars S&L noneducation compensation, con stant dollars S&L compensation, current dollars Employer contributions for social insurance Contributions for other Federal social in surance programs Old Age Survival and Disability and Health Insurance (OASDHI) contributions S&L insurance funds Total social insurance contributions Social insurance contributions for unem ployment insurance Subsidies less current surplus of Federal Government enterprises SLSST* TIME* TRAN* TRCP* TRG* TRMFI TRO* TRSTP* Subsidies less current surplus of S&L gov ernment enterprises Time trend, 1946=0 Total government transfer payments to persons Federal corporate profits tax rate Federal tax rate on gasoline Federal tax rate on median family income Tax rate for OASDHI S&L government transfers to persons 46 TRU* T29* u* UCP URBAN* WB* WPICR* Average employer contribution rate for unemployment insurance Time trend, 1928=0 Unemployment rate of the civilian labor force, age 16 and over Undistributed corporate profits Total population living in urban areas Wage base for OASDHI WPI for crude materials for further proc essing, 1972=100 Appendix C. Persona! Consumption Model: Variables and Equations Explanation of variables (Consumer durable goods are designated (D), nondurable goods (N), and services (S).) Group 1 F Food and tobaee® (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) (N) 1 FOP 2 FPM 3 FOO 4 FFD 5 TQB 6 ALC Food for off-premise consumption Purchased meals Food furnished employees Food produced and consumed on farms Tobacco products Alcoholic beverages Group 2 CL Clothing, aeeessories, and Jewelry (N) (S) (N) (N) (S) (D) (S) 7 SHU 8 SCL 9 CLO 10 MIC 11 LAU 12 JRY 13 COT Shoes Shoe cleaning and repair Clothing and luggage Military issue clothing Laundering and drycleaning Jewelry and watches Other clothing maintenance services Qroyp 3 PC PersorsaS eare (N) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (D) (D) (D) (D) (N) (N) (N) (S) (S) (S) (N) (S) 14 TLG 15 BBB Toilet articles and preparations Barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths Group 4 H Housing 16 OWN 17 TEN 18 FAR 19 OHO Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings Nonfarm rental expenditures Rental value of farmhouses Other housing Group 5 HOP Household operation 20 FNR 21 APP 22 CHN 23 ODH 24 SDH 25 CLP 26 STY 27 ELC 28 NGS 29 WAT 30 FUL 31 TEL Household furniture Household appliances China, glassware, and utensils Other durable housefurnishings Semidurable housefurnishings Cleaning and lighting supplies Stationery and writing supplies Electricity Natural gas Water and sanitary services Other fuels Telephone and telegraph 47 (S) (S) 32 DMS 33 OPO Group @ (N) 34 DRG (D) 35 OPT (S) 36 PHY (S) 37 DEN (S) 38 OPS (S) 39 PHO (S) 40 HIN (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) Group 7 41 BRO 42 BNK 43 IMP 44 LIF 45 GAL 46 FUN 47 PBO Group 8 (D) 48 CAR (D) 49 TBA (S) 50 REP (N) 51 GAO (S) 52 TOL (S) 53 AIN (S) 54 STR (S) 55 TAX (S) 56 CRR (S) 57 IRR (S) 58 IBU (S) 59 IAI (S) 60 TRO (D) (N) (N) (D) (D) (S) (N) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) (S) Group © 61 BKS 62 MAG 63 TOY 64 WHG 65 RAD 66 RTV 67 FLO 68 MOV 69 LEG 70 SPE 71 CLU 72 COM 73 PAR 74 REO Domestic service Other household services MBB Mediieal ear® expenses Drug preparations and sundries Ophthalmic and orthopedic products Physicians Dentists Other professional services Private hospitals and sanitariums Health insurance PB Personal business Brokerage charges and investment counselling Bank service charges Imputed bank and credit union services Expense of handling life insurance Legal services Funeral and burial expenses Other business services TR Transportation Motor vehicles Auto parts Automobile repair Gasoline and oil Road tolls Automobile insurance less claims paid Bus and trolley car transportation Taxicabs Commuter rail transportation Railway transportation Intercity bus Airline transportation Other intercity transportation REG Reereatlon Books and maps Magazines, newspapers, and sheet music Nondurable toys and sporting goods Wheel goods, durable toys, and sports equipment Radio and television receivers, records, and musical instruments Radio and television repair Flowers, seeds, and potted plants Motion picture admissions Legitimate theater admissions Admissions to sports events Clubs and fraternal organizations Commercial participant amusements Parimutuel net receipts Other recreation services 48 Group 10 (S) (S) (S) 75 HED 76 EED 77 OED (S) 78 REL Group 11 Group 12 (S) 79 FTV (N) 80 ABD (S) 81 EXF (N) 82 REM FED Private education and research Private higher education Private elementary and secondary education Other private education and research REL Religious and welfare activities Religious and welfare activities FTR Foreign travel and other, net Foreign travel by U.S. residents Expenditures abroad by Government personnel Expenditures in the United States by foreigners Personal remittances to foreigners Other 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 variables used in consumption model equations: DPI Disposable personal income, 1972 constant dollars PPCE Implicit price deflators for personal consumption expenditures POP Total population POP16& Population aged 16 and over POP 1834 Population between the ages of 18 and 34 STKAPP Gross stocks of household appliances, 1972 constant dollars STKCAR Gross stocks of motor vehicles, 1972 constant dollars STKCHN Gross stocks of china, glassware, and utensils, 1972 constant dollars STKFNR Gross stocks of household furniture, 1972 constant dollars STKHOP Gross stocks of household operation, 1972 constant dollars STKJRY Gross stocks of jewelry and watches, 1972 constant dollars STKODH Gross stocks of other durable housefurnishings, 1972 constant dollars STKOPT Gross stocks of ophthalmic and orthopedic products, 1972 constant dollars STKREC Gross stocks of recreation, 1972 constant dollars Other 1 2 3 variables used in price model equations: TIME Time trend, 1945 = 1 ULC Unit labor costs, private economy ENGY Producer price index of fuels and related products, and power, 1967 = 100 Personal Consumption Model Equations 12 S^ajor product groups 1. F/POP = 532.742 + 0.297(F( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.052(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.054{DPI( - l)/POP( -1)) (5.128) (2.057) (6.009) (5.319) —3.171 (PF/PPCE —PF(—1)/PPCE(—1)) - 3.343(PF(- 1)/P P C E (-1)) + 417.778(POP 1834/POP16&) (-3.301) (-3.316) (2.346) R-squared = 0.978 D.W. = 1.392 2. CL/POP = -5.444 + 0.904<CL(- l)/POP(-l)) + 0.074(DPI/POP-DPI(-1)/POP(-1)) + 0.009(DPI(- l)/POP(-l)) (-0 .5 5 0 ) (10.980) (5.278) (2.064) - 1.435(PCL/PPCE - PCL( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) (-2.321) 49 Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.006 R-squared - 0.988 D.W. = 2.300 3. PC/POP = 14.519 + 0.962(PC(- 1)/PQP( —1)) + 0.009(DPI/POP - O P I ( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (4.578) (52.167) (2.865) - 0.301(PPC/PPCE - PPC( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) - 36.361(POP1834/POP16&) (-2 .1 1 2 ) (-3.954) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.055 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.565 4. H/POP = 0.988(H( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.007(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0 .0 1 1 (D P I(-l)/P O P (-1)) (36.509) (1.356) (2.232) - 0.082(PH/PPCE - PH( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) - 0.13 5 (P H (-1 )/P P C E (-1)) (-1 .4 1 8 ) (-2.873) R-squared = 0.999 D.W. ■ = 1.135 5. HOP/POP = 84.049 + 0 .0 7 9 (H O P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .1 4 0 (D P I/P O P -D P I(-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.143 (0.900) (0.657) (8.030) (7.492) (DPI( - l)/PO P( - 1)) - 1.477(PHOP/PPCE - PHOP( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) - 1.516(PH O P(-1)/ (-1.463) (-1.503) P P C E (-l)) - 0.041(STKHOP(-l)/POP16&( —1)) + 154.485(POP1834/POP16&) (-1.356) (1.163) R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.630 6. MED/POP = -1.230 + 1.0 3 9 (M E D (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 2 5 (D P I/P O P -D P I(-l)/P O P (-!)) (-0.570) (92.353) (2.451) - 0.936(PMED/PPCE - PMED( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) (-2.025) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.020 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.835 7. PB/POP = 0.858(PB( - l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.020(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.008(DPI(- l)/P O P (-1)) (7.411) (2.232) (1.455) - 1 . 194(PPB/PPCE - PPB( - 1)/PPCE(-1)) (-3.562) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.015 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.746 50 8. TR/POP = 0.320(TR(- 1 )/P Q P (-1)) + 0.226(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.085(D PI(-l)/PO P(-1)) (1.849) (5.650) (3.698) - 68,428(POP 1834/POP16&) (-1.415) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.056 R-squared = 0.977 D.W. = 1.884 9. REC/POP = 90.604 + G.422(REC( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.060(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/POP( - ! ) ) + 0.061(DPI( - 1 ) / (2.869) (3.045) (4.937) (4.950) PQP( -1)) - 1 .626(PREC/PPCE - PREC( - 1)/PPCE( -1)) - 1 .645(PREC( - 1)/PPCE( -1)) (-3.897) (-3.887) —0.028(STKREC( —l)/POP16&( -1)) (-1.260) R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.598 10. PED/POP = 8.525 + 1.007(PED (-l)/PO P(-1)) + 0.006(DPI/PQP - DPI( - l)/POP( -1)) (3.044) (66.645) (2.614) - 23.128(POPl 834/POP 16&) (-2.731) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.092 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.846 11. REL/POP = 1.764 + 0.970(REL( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.004(DPI/POP - DPI( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (1.560) (31.342) (1.456) - 0.525(PREL/PPCE - PREL( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) (-3.655) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.019 R-squared = 0.978 D.W. = 2.651 12. FTR/POP = 13.080 + 0 .7 0 6 (F T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.182(PFTR/PPCE-PFTR(- 1)/PPC E(- 1)) (3.073) (14.220) (-5.600) - 0.197(PFTR( - 1)/PPCE( - 1)) + 37.604(POP1834/POP16&) (-5.386) (2.091) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.080 R-squared = 0.967 D.W. = 2.296 82 Detailed produet eategories 1. FOP/POP = 276.855 + 0 .3 6 5 (F O P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.430(F/POP - F( - l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.401(F(-1)/ (3.890) (4.296) (7.290) (7.201) 51 P O P (-l)) - 3.024(PFOP/PF- PFOP(- 1)/PF(- 1)) - 2.821(P F O P (-1)/P F (-1)) (-4.799) (-4.575) R-squared = 0.983 D.W. = 0.591 2. FPM/POP = -17.348 + 0.770(FPM( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.224(F/POP - F( - l)/POP( -)) + 0.065(F(-l)/POP(-l)) (-1.223) (5.319) (6.299) (1.662) - 0.104(PFPM/PF - PFPM( - 1)/PF( -1 )) (-1.976) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.564 R-squared = 0.977 D.W. = 1.859 3. FOO/POP = 0.873(FOO( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0 .0 0 2 (F /P O P -F (- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0 .0 0 2 (F (- l) /P O P ( - 1)) (9.361) (1.378) (1.378) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.289 R-squared = 0.743 D.W. = 1.607 4. FFD/POP = - 2.061 + 0.953(FFD( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.003(F/POP - F( - 1)/PQP( -1)) + 0.003(F( - l)/POP( -1)) (-1.087) (46.802) (1.114) (1.114) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.006 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.862 5. TOB/POP = 21.853 + 0.627(TOB(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0 .0 5 0 (F /P O P -F (-l)/P O P (-1)) (2.669) (4.523) (2.282) - 0.213(PTOB/PF - PTOB( - 1)/PF( - 1)) (-2.604) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.088 R-squared = 0.575 D.W. = 1.979 6. ALC/POP = 39.663 + 0.503(ALC( - l)/(POP( -1)) + 0.040(F/POP - F( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.049(F( - l)/POP( -1)) (2.330) (4.892) (4.773) (4.416) —0.252(PALC/PF - PALC( - 1)/PF( - 1)) - 0.306(P A L C (-1)/P F (-1)) (-3.187) (-3.320) R-squared = 0.957 D.W. = 1.593 7. SHU/POP = 17.625 + 0 .3 8 5 (S H U (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 8 4 (C L /P O P -C L (-l)/P O P (-1)) + (3.129) (2.792) (5.025) 52 Q.079(CL( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.171 (PSHU/PCL - PSHU( - 1)/PCL( - 1)) - 0.161(PSHU( - 1 ) / (4.719) (-2.928) (-2.793) P C L (-l)) R-squared = 0.916 B.W. = 1.749 8. SCL/POP = 0.096 + 0.911(SCL(- l)/POP( - ! )) - 0.003(PSCL/PCL - PSCL(- 1)/PCL( - ! )) (0.979) (15.631) (-1.351) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.425 R-squared = 0.973 B.W. = 1.943 9. CLO/POP = 100.411 + 0.173(CLO(—l)/POP(—1)) + 0.686(CL/POP - CL( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.666{CL(-1)/POP(-1)) (4.241) (2.014) (11.570) (10.895) - 1 .275(PCLO/PCL - PCLO( - 1)/PCL( - 1)) - 1.238(PCLO( - 1)/PCL( - 1)) (-6.122) (-5.665) R-squared = 0.997 B.W. = 0.630 10. MIC/POP = 0.193 + 0.714(MIC(—l)/PO P(—1)) - 0.004(PM IC /PC L -PM IC (-l)-PC L (-l)) (1.333) (5.395) (-0.687) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.422 R-squared = 0.792 B.W. = 1.816 11. LAU/POP = 0.965(LAU( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.032(CL/POP - CL( - l)/POP( - 1)) (132.814) (3.532) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.532 R-squared = 0.994 B.W. = 2.003 12. JRY/POP = -1.301 + 0.392(JRY( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0.096(CL/POP - CL( - 1)/POP( - 1)) + 0.094 (-0.600) (4.141) (9.320) (8.593) (CL( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.102(PJRY/PCL - PJRY( - 1)/PCL( - 1)) - 0.100(PJRY( - 1)/ (-5.550) (-5.101) PC L(- 1))-0.013(STKJRY(- l)/POP16& (-1)) (-1.690) R-squared = 0.966 B.W. = 1.292 13. COT/POP = 0.066 + 1.0Q9(CQT( - l)/POP( -! )) + 0.017(CL/POP-CL(-1)/POP(-1)) (0.807) (46.608) (4.643) 53 - 0.037(PCOT/PCL - PCOT( - 1)/PCL( - 1)) (-2.985) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.081 K-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 2.289 14. TLG/POP = -2.196 + 0.900(TLG(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.500(PC/PGP- PC (- 1)/PQP(- 1)) + ' (-3.749) (23.108) (8.285) 0.115(PC( - 1)/PQP( - 1)) - 0.161(PTLG/PPC - PTLG( - 1>/PPC( - 1)) (3.324) (-2.759) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.008 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.292 15 BBB/POP = 2.305 + 0.859(BBB( —l)POP ( - 1)) + 0 .5 6 3 (P C /P O P -P C (-l)/P O P (-1)) (4.332) (29.648) (10.387) - 0.206(PBBB/PPC - PBBB( - 1)/PPC( - 1)) (-3.718) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.008 R-squared = 0.980 D.W. = 2.051 16. OWN/POP = —11.009 + 0.764(0W N (- l)/POP( —1)) + 0.710(H/POP —H( —l)/PO P( —1)) + 0.180(H( —1)/ (-1.993) (6.764) (9.674) (2.119) P O P (-l)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.540 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.260 17. TEN/POP = 3.551 + 0.741 (T E N (-l)/PO P ( - 1)) + 0 .2 3 6 (H /P O P -H (-l)/P O P ( - 1))+ 0.063(H (-1)/ (1.396) (6.068) (4.766) (2.137) P Q P (-l)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.724 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.165 18. FAR/POP = Q.963(FAR(- l)/P O P (- 1)) - 0.001(PFAR/PH - PFAR( - 1)/PH( - 1)) (67.042) (-0.699) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.920 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.455 19. OHO/'POP = 7.385 + 0 .6 5 1 (O H O (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 2 0 (H (-l)/P O P (-1)) (1.896) (5.357) (3.217) 54 - 0.113(POHO( - 1)/PH( - 1)) (-2.032) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = —0.030 R-squared = 0.986 D.W. = 1.947 20. FNR/POP = 36.214 + 0.229(FNR( - l)/POP( - 1)) 4- O.OB4(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.080 (3.755) (1.718) (5.735) (6.000) (HOP( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.278(PFNR/PHOP - PFNR( - l)/PHOP( -1)) - 0.263(PFNR( - 1 ) / (-3.509) (-3.361) P H O P (-l)) - 0.018(STKFNR( - l)/POP16&( - 1)) (-1.746) R-squared = 0.981 D.W. = 0.933 21. APP/POP = - 6.678 + 0.649(APP(- l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.106(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/PO P( -1 )) + 0.047 (-4.852) (5.621) (9.094) (3.924) (HOP( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.31 l(PAPP/PHOP - PAPP(- l)/PHOP(-1)) - O.GQ7(STKAPP( - 1 )/ (-6.085) (-2.355) POP16&(- 1)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.007 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. =2.120 22. CHN/POP = 25.757 + 0.476(CHN(- l)/POP( - !)) + 0.041 (HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/P O P (- ! ) ) + 0.041 (9.5333) (7.632) (9.493) (9.278) (HOP( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.295(PCHN/PHOP - PCHN( - l)/PHOP( -1)) - 0.296(PCHN( - 1 ) / (-7.810) (-7.689) P H O P (-l)) - 0.023(STKCHN(- l)/POP16&(-1 )) (-4.272) R-squared = 0.979 D.W. = 1.268 23. ODH/POP = 27.423 + 0.764 (ODH(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.125(HOP/POP - HOP(- l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.053 (3.106) (8.500) (9.943) (4.367) (HOP( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.257(PODH( - l)/PHOP( -1)) - 0.027(STKODH( - l)/POP16&( -!)) (-3.468) (-4.046) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.070 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 2.237 55 24. SDH/POP = - 0.109 + 0.983(SDH( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.093(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (-0.214) (49.067) (9.719) - 0.098(PSDH/PHOP - PSDH( - l)/PHOP( - 1)) (-3 .5 2 6 ) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.052 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.410 25. CLP/POP = 2.028 + 0 .9 2 3 (C L P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .109(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (1.527) (23.196) (6.607) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.532 R-squared = 0.990 D.W. = 1.980 26. STY/POP = 0.723 + 0.921(STY( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.025(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (2.189) (23.775) (4.271) - 0.100(PSTY/PHOP - PSTY( - l)/PHOP( -1 )) (-3.302) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.059 R-squared = 0.964 D.W. = 1.975 27. ELC/POP = - 1.540 + 0.960(ELC( - l)/P O P (-1 )) + 0.028(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.013 (-1 .9 1 3 ) (40.566) (3.556) (2.880) L (HOP( —l)/POP( —1)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.655 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.717 28. NGS/POP = 1.583 + 0 .9 6 4 (N G S (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.067(PNGS/PHOP - PNGS( - l)/P H O P (- 1)) (6.231) (90.286) (-3.553) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.085 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.715 29. WAT/POP = 0.372 + 0.995(WAT( - l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.014(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/POP( - 1)) (1.135) (42.650) (2.348) - 0.096(P WAT/PHOP - PWAT( - l)/PHOP( -1 )) (-3.262) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.030 R-squared = 0.987 D.W. = 1.302 56 30. FUL/POP = 2.493 + 0.880(FUL(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.087(H O P/PO P-H O P(- l)/P O P (- 1)) (1.189) (12.797) (5.072) - 0.115(PFUL/PHOP - PFUL( - l)/PHOP( - 1)) (-4.879) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.134 R-squared = 0.898 D.W. = 2.073 31. TEL/POP = 7.127 + 0 .9 5 3 (T E L (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 1 8 (H O P /P O P -H O P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.016 (1.325) (17.333) (2.007) (1.985) (HOP( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.098(PTEL/PHOP - PTEL( - l)/PHOP( - 1)) - 0.088(PT E L (-1)/ (-1.946) (-1.924) P H O P (-l)) R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.215 32. DMS/POP = 39.027 + 0 .4 4 0 (D M S (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 3 1 (H O P /P O P -H O P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + (4.174) (3.125) (1.690) 0.035(HOP( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.377 (PDMS/PHOP-PDMS(- l)/PH O P(- 1)) - 0.432(PDMS( - 1 ) / (1.741) (-3.304) (-3.608) P H O P (-l)) R-squared = 0.968 D.W. = 1.671 33. OPO/POP = 0.570 + Q.817(QPO( - l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.056(HOP/POP - HOP( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.010 (0.958) (7.222) (6.046) (1.601) (HOP( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.020(POPO/PHOP - POPO( —l)/PHOP( - 1)) - 0.003(PO PO (-1)/ (-1.640) (-1.205) P H O P (-l)) R-squared = 0.987 D.W. = 1.121 34. DRG/POP = 20.534 + 0 .6 8 6 (D R G (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.065(MED/POP - MED( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (2.015) (4.417) (2.072) - 0.080(PDRG/PMED - PDRG( - 1)/PMED( -1 )) - 0.088 (PDRG( - 1 ) / PMED( -1)) (-1.798) (-1.933) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.333 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.863 57 35. OPT/POP = 1.290 + 0.958(OPT(- l)/P O P (-1 )) + 0.037 (M E D /P O P -M E D (-l)/P O P (-1)) (2.334) (5.879) (1.937) - 0.041 (POPT/PMED - POPT( - 1)/PMED( -1)) - 0.024<STKOPT( - l)/POP16&( -1)) (-1.432) (-1.208) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.075 R-squared = 0.796 D.W. = 1.839 36. PHY/POP = 6.168 + 0.619(PHY( - l)/PO P( - !)) + 0.276(MED/POP - MEB( - l)/PO P( - !)) + 0.073 (2.544) (4.096) (5.316) (2.331) (MED( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.388(PPHY/PMED - PPHY( - 1)/PMED( - 1)) (-2.681) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.050 R-squared = 0.995 B.W. = 2.043 37. BEN/POP = 17.210 + 0.637(DEN( - l)/PO P( -1 )) + 0.035(MED/POP - MED( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.032 (1.586) (4.520) (3.259) (3.073) (MED( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.175(PDEN/PMED - PDEN( - 1)/PMED( -1)) - 0.162(PDEN( -1 ) (-1.657) (-1.588) /P M E B (-l)) R-squared = 0.984 B.W. = 1.928 38. OPS/POP = 1.529 + 0.815(OPS(- l)/PO P( —1)) + 0.089(MEB/POP - MEB( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (1.315) (7.984) (2.402) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.443 R-squared = 0.891 B.W. = 2.135 39. PHO/POP = 15.837 + 0 .7 4 7 (P H O (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.183(MEB/POP - MEB(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.166 (1.138) (8.193) (3.742) (3.396) (MEB( - l)/POP( —1)) - 0.364(PPHO/PMEB - PPHQ( - 1)/PMEB( —1)) - 0.330 (-1.727) (-1.703) (PPHQ( - 1)/PMEB( -1 )) R-squared = 0.998 B.W. = 1.098 40. HIN/POP = 7.020 + 0.430(HIN( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.043(MEB/POP - MEB( - 1)/PQP( - 1)) + 0.050 (4.018) (4.579) (4.463) (6.075) (MEB( - l)/POP( -1 )) - 0.046(PHIN/PMEB - PHIN( - 1)/ (-3.024) PMEB( -1 )) - 0.053(PHIN( - 1)/PMED( - 1)) (-3.187) 58 R-squared = 0.991 D.W. = 1.447 41. BRO/POP' = 5.083 + 0.8Q1(BRO(- l)/P O P (- !)) + 0.796(P B /P O P-P B (-l)/P O P(-1)) (5.133) (15.472) (16.812) - 0.056(PBRO( - 1)/PPB( - 1)) (-5.207) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.009 R-squared = Q.94'9 D.W. = 2.146 42. BNK/POP = 4.223 + 0.460(BNK( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.034(PB/POP - PB( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.030 (3.160) (4.086) (4.802) (4.576) (PB( - l)/POP( -1)) - 0.040(PBNK/PPB - PBNK( - 1)/PPB( -1)) - 0.035(PBNK( -1 )/PPB( -1)) (-4.638) (-4.178) R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.563 43. IMP/POP = -6.134 + Q.888(IMP( - 1)/PQP( -1 )) + 0 .0 6 5 (P B /P O P -P B (-l)/P O P (-!)) + 0.086 (-3.474) (12.011) (1.472) (2.516) (PB( —l)/POP( —1)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.090 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.788 44. LIF/POP = 39.262 + 0.367(LIF(- l)/POP( -1)) + 0.051(PB/POP - P B ( - l)/PO P(—!)) + 0.054(PB( —1)/ (2.339) (2.476) (4.253) (2.067) P O P (-l)) - 0.232(PLIF/PPB —PLIF( - 1)/PPB( —1)) - Q.244(PLIF(—1)/PPB(—!)) (-4.040) (-3.695) R-squared = 0.961 D.W. = 1.841 45. GAL/POP = 3.359 + 0 .6 5 9 (G A L (-l)/P O P (-1)) + Q.Q80(PB/PQP- PB(- l)/P O P (- 1» + 0.065 (1.480) (5.307) (1.998) (3.000) (PB( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.060(PGAL( - 1)/PPB( -1 )) (-1.740) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.161 R-squared = 0.973 D.W. = 1.898 46. FUN/POP = Q.981(FUN( - 1)/P0P( - 1)) + O.Q54(PB/POP - PB( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (74.740) (2.546) - 0.060(PFUN/PPB - PFUN( - 1)/PPB( - 1)) (-2.310) 59 Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.031 R-squared = 0.845 D.W. = 1.445 47. PBO/POP = 1.703 + 0.652(PBO( - l)/POP( -1)) + 0 .0 2 0 (P B /P O P -P B (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.021(PB(-1)/ (2.074) (6.936) (3.800) (3.431) POP( - 1)) -0.01 l(PPBO/PPB - PPBO( - 1)/PPB( -1 )) - 0.012(PPBO( - 1)/PPB( - 1)) (-2.988) (-2.851) R-squared = 0.988 D.W. = 1.683 48. CAR/POP = -2.276 + 0 .7 1 2 (C A R (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .8 6 2 (T R /P O P -T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.141 (-0.688) (12.919) (38.215) (3.514) (TR( - l)/POP( -1 )) - 0.077(PCAR/PTR - PCAR( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) - 0.013(PCAR( - 1 ) / (-2.313) (-1.561) PTR( -1 )) - 0.006(STKCAR( - l)/POP16&( - 1)) (-1.497) R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.685 49. TBA/POP = 4.948 + 0.6 6 5 (T B A (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.019(TR/POP - TR( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.024 (1.534) (7.721) (4.383) (3.843) (TR( - l)/PO P( - 1)) - 0.046(PTBA/PTR - PTBA( - 1)/PTR( -1 )) - 0.057(PTBA( - 1)/ (-2.656) (-2.785) PTR( - ) ) R-squared = 0.988 D.W. = 1.919 50. REP/POP = 0.657 + 0 .9 9 4 (R E P (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 2 1 (T R /P O P -T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.012 (0.505) (26.961) (3.939) (1.905) (TR( - l)/POP( -1 )) - 0.035(PREP(- 1)/PTR (- 1)) (-1.741) < Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.400 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.011 51. GAO/POP = 20.286 + 0.8 1 5 (G A O (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.047(TR/POP - TR( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.047 (3.771) (18.376) (4.145) (4.046) (TR( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.169(PGAO/PTR - PGAO( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) - 0.167(PGAO(-1)/ (-4.105) (-3.762) P T R (-l)) 60 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.475 52. TOL/POP = 0.397 + 0 .9 6 2 (T O L (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.002(TR/POP - TR( —l)/POP( -1 )) (2.122) (31.523) (3.238) - 0.002(PTOL( - 1)/PTR( -1 )) (-1.704) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.054 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.806 53. AIN/POP = -0.810 + 0.500(A IN (-1)/POP(-1)) + 0.010(TR/PGP - TR( - l)/POP( -1 )) + 0.029 (-1.498) (6.958) (1.713) (6.852) (TR( - l)/PO P( -1 )) - 0.059(PAIN/PTR - PAIN( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) (-5.044) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.033 R-squared = 0.985 D.W. = 1.658 54. STR/POP = 3.967 + 0.8 1 3 (S T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.097(PSTR/PTR- PSTR(- 1)/PTR (- 1)) (3.364) (44.424) (-5.892) - 0.028(PSTR( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) (-2.262) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.331 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.947 55. TAX/POP = 3.966 + 0 .6 8 6 (T A X (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.078(PTAX/PTR- PTAX(- 1)/PTR (- 1)) (3.056) (10.250) (-4.042) - 0.028(PTAX( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) (-2.492) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.095 R-squared = 0.973 D.W. = 1.712 56. CRR/POP = 0.555 + Q.760(CRR(- l) /P O P ( - 1)) - 0.008(PCRR/PTR - PCRR( - 1)/PTR (- 1)) (3.219) (14.168) (-4.314) - 0.004(PCRR( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) ( - 2 .668) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.250 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.740 61 57. IRR/POP = 0.166 + 0 .8 5 2 (IR R (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.007(PIRR/PTR - PIRR( - 1)/PT R (- 1)) (1.357)(17.266) (-0.866) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.283 R-squared = 0.973 D.W. = 1.623 58. 1BU/POP = 2.641 + 0 .7 0 3 (IB U (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 0 2 (T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) (2.891) (6.445) (1.592) - 0.034(PIBU/PTR - PIBU( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) - 0.029(PIBU( - 1)/PTR( - 1)) (-3.474) (-2.894) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.639 R-squared = 0.976 D.W. = 1.933 59. IAI/POP = 0.533 + 0 .8 0 3 (IA I(-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .0 1 0 (T R /P O P -T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.011 (0.392) (11.778) (3.457) (3.097) (TR( —l)/PO P( -1 )) - 0.025(PIAI/PTR —PIAI( —1)/PTR( —1)) - 0.027(PIAI ( - 1)/ (-2.292) (-2.251) P T R (-l)) R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.436 60. TRO/POP = 0.137 + 0 .9 8 2 (T R O (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.001(PTRO(- 1 )/P T R (-1)) (1.555)(16.641) (-1.385) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.216 R-squared = 0.942 D.W. = 1.985 61. BKS/POP = 0.812(BKS(—l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.019(REC/POP - REC( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.013 (9.438) (1.040) (2.342) (REC( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.140(PBKS/PREC - PBKS( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) (-1.501) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.011 R-squared = 0.952 D.W. = 1.930 62. MAG/POP = 18.155 + 0 .8 0 8 (M A G (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.089(R E C /P O P -R E C (-l)/P O P (-!)) (4.604) (10.350) (4.768) + 0.089 (REC( - l)/POP( - 1)) 0.336(PMAG/PREC - PMAG( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) - 0.334 (4.971) (-4.148) (-4.330) (PMAG( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) 62 R-squared = 0.903 D.W. = 1.851 63. TOY/POP = 0.552 + 0.781(TGY(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.149(REC/POP - REC(- l)/P O P (- !•)) + 0.025 (1.476) (14.905) (9.605) (3.419) (REC( - l)/POP( - ! ) ) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.173 R-squared = 0.988 D.W. = 1.940 64. WHG/POP = 2.069 + 0.38 6 (W H G (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.111(REC/POP - R E C (- l)/P O P (- !)) (0.661) (2.997) (5.774) + 0=120 (REC(- l)/P O P (-1 )) - 0.086(PWHG/PREC- PWHG(- 1)/PREC(- 1)) (5.322) (-3.760) - 0.093 (PWHG( - 1)/PREC( -1 )) (-3.466) R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.306 65. RAD/POP = -12.276 + 0.6 1 4 (R A D (-l)/P O P (-!)) + 0.240(R EC/PQ P-REC(- 1 )/P Q P (-1)) (-4.637) (5.906) (7.011) + 0.148 (REC( - l)/PO P( - ) ) - 0.018(PRAD/PREC - PRAD( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) - 0.011 (4.222) (-2.280) (-1.587) (PRAD( - 1)/PREC( —1)) R-sqiiared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.650 66. RTY/PGP = 0.503 + 0.805(RTV(- l)/P O P (- !)) + 0.014(R E C /P Q P-R E C (- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.002 (3.727) (15.640) (2.291) (2.254) (REC( —1)/PQP( —1)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.106 R-squared = 0.982 D.W. = 2.105 67. FLO/POP = 0.210 + 0.9S1(FLO(- l) /P O P ( - !)) + 0.055(REC/PGP - REC( - l)/P O P (- !)) (1.865) (51.531) (5.480) - 0.007(PFLG/PREC - PFLO( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) (-2.082) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.631 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.944 63 68. MOV/POP = 0.905(M OV(-1)/POP(-1)) + 0.031(REC/POP - R E C ( - l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.021 (50.771) (3.029) (2.073) (REC( - l)/POP( —1)) - 0.059(PMOV/PREC - PMOV( - 1)/PREC( -1 )) - 0.040 (-2.066) (-1.600) (PMOV( —1)/PREC( —1)) R-squared = 0.985 D.W. = 1.989 69. LEG/POP = 1.200 + 0 .7 9 2 (L E G (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.007(REC/POP -R E C ( - l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.008 (1.856) (6.556) (4.680) (5.206) (REC( - l)/POP( - 1)) - 0.021 (PLEG/PREC - PLEG( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) - 0.024 (-3.623) (-3.885) (PLEG( - 1)/PREC( -1 )) R-squared = 0.902 D.W. = 1.754 70. SPE/POP = 2.576 + 0 .9 7 9 (S P E (-l)/P O P (-1)) - 0.029(PSPE/PREC - PSPE(- 1)/PREC(- 1)) (3.150) (37.683) (-2.821) - 0.029(PSPE/PREC - PSPE( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) (-3.089) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.218 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 2.333 71. CLU/POP = 4.796 + 0.555(CLU( - l)/PO P( - 1)) + 0.002(REC/PGP - REC( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.002 (3.251) (3.852) (2.301) (2.144) (REC( - l)/POP( -1 )) - 0.027(PCLU/PREC - PCLU( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) - 0.026 (-2.968) (-2.711) (PCLU( —1)/PREC( —1)) R-squared = 0.694 D.W. = 1.771 72. COM/POP = 1.181 + 0.889(COM(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.032(REC/POP - REC( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (1.623) (13.644) (3.627) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.733 R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 1.961 73. PAR/POP = 3.029 + 0.903(PAR(- l) /P O P ( - 1)) + 0 .0 0 8 (R E C /P O P -R E C (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.007 (3.907) (13.060) (3.635) (3.142) 64 (REC( - 1)/P0P( - 1)) - 0.047(PPAR/PREC - PPAR( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) - 0.040 (-4.685) (-3.884) PPAR( - 1)/PREC( - 1)) R-squared = 0.970 D.W. = 1.579 74. REO/POP = 6.673 + 0.9 8 5 (R E O (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0.050(REC/POP - REC( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (1.581) (40.134) (3.093) - 0.060(PREO/PREC - PREO( - 1)/PREC( -1)) - 0.063(PREO( - 1)/PREC( -1)) (-1.198) (-1.429) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.340 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.839 75. HED/POP = 1.175 + 0.294(HED( - l)/POP( - 1)) + 0.305(PED/POP - PED( - 1)/PQP( - 1)) + 0.290 (2.230) (1.641) (4.844) (3.926) (PED( - l)/POP( - 1)) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.548 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.585 76. EED/POP = 0.859 + 0 .9 4 5 (E E D (-l)/P O P (-1)) + 0 .1 5 6 (P E D /P O P -P E D (-l)/P O P (-1)) (1.929) (27.461) (4.593) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.720 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.761 77. OED/POP = 0.976(OED( - l)/PO P( —1)) + 0 .6 2 2 (P E D /P O P -P E D (-l)/P O P (-1)) (49.851) (9.818) - 0.01 l(POED/PPED - POED( - 1)/PPED( -1 )) (-2.566) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.700 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.959 78. REL/POP = 1.764 + Q .970(R E L (-l)/P O P(-1)) + 0.004(DIP/POP - DPI( - l)/P O P (- 1)) (1.560) (31.342) (1.456) - 0.525(PREL/PPCE - PREL( - 1)/PPCE( -1 )) (-3.655) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.019 R-squared = 0.978 D.W. = 2.651 65 79. FTV/POP = -0.548 + 1.058(FTV( - l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.539(FTR/POP - FTR(- l)/PO P( - 1)) (-1.607) (68.651) (7.774) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.308 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 2.223 80. ABD/POP = 0.774 + 0.89!(ABO(- l)/P O P (- 1)) + 0.375(FTR/POP - FTR( - 1)/PQP( - 1)) (1.868) (17.674) (6.220) - 0.022(PABB/PFTR - PABD( - 1)/PFTR( -1 )) (-1.847) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.085 R-squared = 0.947 D.W. = 2.012 81. EXF/POP = 0.358 + 1.074(EXF(- 1)/PQ P(- 1)) - 0 .0 0 8 (F T R (-l)/P O P (-1)) (1.374) (47.302) (-0.526) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.082 R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 1.962 82. KEM /POP = -0 .4 4 2 + 0.290(REM( - l)/P O P ( - 1)) - 0.024(FTR/POP - FTR( - l)/P O P ( - 1)) (-3.451) (6.364) (-1.772) - 0.014 (FTR( - l)/PO P( - 1)) (-2.456) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.336 R-squared = 0.897 D.W. = 2.399 Priee H@d©l Eqyations 12 i3aj@r product groups 1. PF = -0.053 - 0.002(TIME) + 2.141(ULC(-1)) (-1.163) (-0.556) (9.958) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.629 R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 1.415 2. PCL = 0.159 + 0.018(TIME) + 0.589(ULC(-1)) (1.434) (2.866) (2.882) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.909 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 2.075 66 3. PPC = 0.125 + 0.006(TIME) + 1.057(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00130(ENGY(-1)) (5.288) (3.394) (5.612) (5.270) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.244 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 2.060 4. PH = 0.192 + 0.005(TIME) + 1.213(ULC(-1))+ 0.00016(ENGY(- 1)) (6.254) (1.961) (5.088) (0.569) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.616 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.427 5. PHOP = 0.165 + 0.0001 (TIME) + 1.339(ULC(-1)) + 0.00110(ENGY( -1 )) (6.059) (0.067) (6.155) (3.835) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.160 R-squared = 0.995 D.W. = 1.902 6. PMED = -0.171 + 0.006(TIME) + 1.671(ULC(-1)) + 0.00089(ENGY( -1 )) (-4.791) (2.037) (6.016) (2.653) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.594 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.873 7. PPB = -0.174 + 0.012(TIME) + 1.519(ULC(-1)) (-8.123) (6.768) (14.794) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.512 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.738 8. PTR = 0.126 + 0.009(TIME) + 0.925(UCL(- I)) + 0.00132(ENGY(-1)) (6.522) (5.870) (5.994) (6.336) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.158 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 2.113 9. PREC = 0.237 + 0.012(TIME) + 0.777(ULC(-1)) + 0.00008(ENGY( -1 )) (18.126) (11.496) (7.508) (0.647) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.404 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.763 10. PPED = -0.301 + 0.023(TIME) + 1.174(ULC(-1)) + 0.00055(ENGY(-1)) (-3.070) (3.011) (2.528) (1.163) 67 Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.896 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.875 11. PREL = -0.059 - 0.0002(TIME) + 1.866(ULC((-1.545) (-0.059) (6.119) + 0.00069(ENGY(- 1)) (1.732) Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.217 R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.817 12. PFTR = -0.219 - 0.009(TIME) + 2.828(ULC(-1)) + 0.00040(ENGY(—1)) (-1.087) (-0.517) (1.775) (0.215) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.605 R-squared = 0.956 D.W. = 1.544 82 1. Detailed product categories PFOP = -0.075 - 0.006(TIME) + 2.444(ULC(- 1)) (-1.289) (-1.275) (8.934) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.576 R-squared = 0.981 D.W. = 1.311 2. PFPM = -0.564 + 0.032(TIME) + 1.210(ULC(-1)) + 0.00032(ENGY(- 1)) (0.594) (-3.455) (3.033) (2.231) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.917 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.734 3. PFOO = -0.595 + 0.031 (TIME) + 1.128(ULC(-1)) + 0.00062(ENGY(—1)) (0.652) (-1.490X1.453) (1.148) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.933 R-squared = 0.985 D.W. = 1.162 4. PFFD = 0.033 - 0.012(TIME) + 2.434(ULC(-1)) (0.372) (-1.639) (5.791) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.522 R-squared = 0.930 D.W. = 1.701 5. PTOB = -0.094 + 0.021 (TIME) + 0.866(ULC(-1)) (-1.767) (6.631) (7.935) 68 Cochrane/Orcutt RHO - 0.898 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.680 6. PALC = 0.201 + .0.003(TIME) + 1.268(ULC(-1)) (13.051) (2.497) (17.414) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.542 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. '= 1.862 7. PSHU = 0.031 + 0.Q23(TIME) + 0.603(ULC(-1)) (0.338) (4.140) (3.149) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.895 R-squared = 0.995 D.W. = 2.031 8. PSCL = 0.201 + 0.011 (TIME) + 0.817(UCLC(-1)) + 0.00078(ENGY( -1 )) (3.553) (2.205) (1.904) (1.578) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.703 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.478 9. PCLO = 0.209 + 0.016(TIME) + 0.575(ULC(-1)) (1.987) (2.653) (2.749) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.901 R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 2.058 10. PMIC = 0.424 - 0.005(TIME) + 1.306(ULC(-1)) (15.184) (-1.994) (9.770) C o c h ra n e /O rc u tt R H O = 0.459 R-squared = 0.975 D.W. = 1.995 11. PLAU = 0.030 + 0.007(TIME) + 1.258(ULC(-1)) + 0.00089(ENGY(-1)) (0.954) (2.983) (4.997) (2.757) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO — 0.367 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.815 12. PJRY = 0.547 - O.OIO(TIME) + 1.312(ULC(-1)) + 0.00007(ENGY(-1 )) (10.036) (-2.114) (3.080) (0.138) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.572 R-squared = 0.966 D.W. = 1.741 69 13. PCOT = 0.124 + O.OOB(TIME) + 1.415(ULC(-1)) + 0.00040(ENGY( -1)) (1.338) (4.290) (1.191) (6.156) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.305 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.806 14. PTLG = 0.327 - 0.00Q4(TIME) + 1.019(ULC(-1)) + 0.00129(ENGY(—1)) (3.670) (9.560) (-0.157) (3.748) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.272 R-squared = 0.991 D.W. = 2.006 15. PBBB = -0.143 + 0.008(TIME) + 1.500(ULC((-3.260) (2.277) (4.324) + 0.00128(ENGY( -1 )) (2.896) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.373 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.714 16. POWN = 0.243 + 0.004(TIME) + 1.220(ULC(- 1)) + Q.00002(ENGY(—1)) (0.074) (7.229) (1.271) (4.815) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.719 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.386 17. PTEN = 0.244 + 0.004(TIME) + 1.216(UCL(-1)) + 0.G0002(ENGY(-1)) (7.278) (1.290) (4.823) (0.075) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.721 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.387 18. PFAR = -0.931 - 0.009(TIME) + 3.373(ULC((-5.769) (-0.704) (2.657) + 0.00387(ENGY(- 1)) (2.456) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.500 R-squared = 0.986 D.W. = 1.752 19. POHO = -0.008 + 0.005(TIME) + 1.550(ULC((-0.214) (1.753) (5.208) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.423 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.320 20. PFNR = 0.246. - 0.002(TIME) + 1.497(ULC(-1)) (9.546) (-0.931) (12.192) 70 + 0.00021(ENGY(-1)) (0.562) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.554 K-squared = 0.991 D.W. = 1.741 21. PAPP = 0.797 - Q.030(TIME) + 1.862(ULC(-1)) + 0.00025(ENGY( -1 )) (15.075) (-6.899) (4.511) (0.503) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.569 R-squared = 0.965 D.W. = 1.784 22. PCHN = -0.008 + 0.012(TIME) + 0.918(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00178(ENGY(-1)) (-0.220) (4.215) (3.263) (4.987) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.404 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.387 23. PODH = 0.603 + O.Oll(TIME) + 0.00115(ENGY( - 1)) (37.140) (10.753) (8.632) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.467 R-squared = 0.985 D.W. = 1.783 24. PSDH = 0.391 - 0.007(TIME) + 1.452(ULC(-!)) + 0.00039(ENGY( -1 )) (4.381) (-0.979) (2.092) (0.472) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.604 R-squared = 0.959 D.W. = 2.319 25. PCLP = 0.115 + O.OOl(TIME) + 0.933(ULC(-!)) + 0.00351 (ENGY( - 1)) (2.660) (0.137) (2.698) (7.770) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.199 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 2.120 26. PSTY = 0.023 + 0.004(TIME) + 1.489(ULC(-1)) + 0.00089(ENGY(-1)) (0.418) (1.010) (3.373) (1.570) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.333 R-squared = 0.990 D.W. = 1.702 27. PELC = 0.171 - 0.009(TIME) + 1.741(ULC(-1)) + 0.00155(ENGY(- 1)) (3.093) (-2.096) (4.000) (2.851) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.464 R-squared = 0.990 D.W. = 1.767 71 28. PNGS = -0.044 + 0.006(TIME) + 0.727(ULC(-1)) (-0.522) (0.895) (1.150) 0.00443(ENGY (-l)) (5.530) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.399 R-squared = 0.989 D.W. = 1.691 29. PWAT = -0.270 + 0.009(TIME) + 1.698(ULC(-1)) + 0.00075(ENGY(- 1)) (1.741) (-6.231) (2.640) ((4.963) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.419 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. '' = 1.277 30. PFUL = -0.525 - 0.018(TIME) + 3.395(ULC(-1)) (-3.350) (-1.486) (2.720) 0.00335(ENGY( —1)) (2.054) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.203 R-squared = 0.967 D.W. = 1.878 31. PTEL = 0.620 + 0.0004(TIME) + 0.670(ULC(-1)) (16.491) (0.125) (4.493) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.782 R-squared = 0.984 D.W. = 1.297 32. PDMS = -0.542 + 0.024(TIME) + 1.612(ULC(-1)) (-4.753) (2.528) (2.697) 0.00049(ENGY(- 1)) (0.794) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.876 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.896 33. POPO = -0.231 + 0.0001 (TIME) + 2.242(ULC(-1)) + 0.00005(ENGY( —1)) (0.167) (-7.720) (0.044) (9.412) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.150 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 2.089 34. PDRG = 0.700 - 0.006(TIME) + 0.708(ULC(-1)) + 0.00088(ENGY(-1)) (11.360) (-1.061) (2.013) (2.428) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.861 R-squared = 0.987 D.W. = 1.104 35. POPT = -0.099 + 0.018(TIME) + 1.003(ULC(- 1)) (-1.085) (3.239) (3.577) 72 0.00020(ENGY(- 1)) (0.735) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.922 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.593 36. PPHY = -0.302 + 0.009(TIME) + 1.815(ULC(-1)) + 0.00058(ENGY( -1 )) (-6.889) (2.388) (5.499) (1.555) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.722 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.876 37. PDEN = -0.264 + 0.022(TIME) + 1.081(ULC(-1)) + 0.00042(EMGY( -1 )) (-3.454) (4.237) (3.898) (1.518) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.911 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 2.046 38. POPS = -0.302 + 0.009(TIME) + 1.836(ULC(-1)) + 0.00058(ENGY(-1)) (-7.032) (2.334) (5.651) (1.554) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.716 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.890 39. PPHO = -0.362 + 0.007(TIME) + 1.960(ULC(-1)) + 0.00115(ENGY( -1)) (-7.406) (1.667) (5.181) (2.570) . i Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.634 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.863 40. PHIN = -0.324 - 0.002(TIME) + 2.408(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00029(ENGY(- 1)) (-2.314) (-0.159) (2.179) (0.211) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.461 R-squared = 0.964 D.W. = 2.171 41. PBRO = -0.071 + 0.031 (TIME) (-0.697) (7.148) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.760 R-squared = 0.972 D.W. = 1.522 42. PBNK = 0.693 + 0.0001 (TIME) + 0.370(ULC(-1)) + 0.00130(ENGY(- 1)) (2.654) (0.008) (0.634) (2.299) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.937 R-squared = 0.990 D.W. = 0.991 43. PIMP = -0.341 + 0.008(TIME) + 2.039(ULC((-10.117) (3.126) (12.497) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.396 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.523 44. PLIF = -0.095 + 0.012(TIME) + 1.334(ULC((-2.958) (4.429) (5.319) + 0.00Q41(ENGY( —1)) (1.345) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO - 0.587 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.684 45. PGAL = -0.734 + 0.038(TIME) + 1.164(ULC((-4.680) (4.838) (5.313) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.927 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 0.943 46. PFUN = 0.007 + 0.025(TIME) + 0.450(ULC(-1)) + 0.00042(ENGY(—1)) (1.472) (0.106) (5.168) (1.579) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.896 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.911 47. PPBO = -0.018 - 0.001 (TIME) + 1.902(ULC((-0.634) (-0.639) (8.272) + 0.00036(ENGY( -1 )) (1.198) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.206 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.840 48. PCAR = 0.270 + O.Oll(TIME) + 0.471(ULC(-1)) + 0.00142(ENGY(- 1)) (6.845) (3.620) (1.505) (3.556) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.379 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 2.160 49. PTBA = 0.449 - Q.0Q2(TIME) + 0.992(ULC(-1)) + 0.00041 (EN G Y(-l)) (6.511) (-0.364) (1.906) (0.683) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.717 R-squared = 0.976 D.W. = 1.620 50. PREP = -0.186 - O.OOl(TIME) + 2.175(ULC((-9.592) (-0.804) (14.055) 74 + 0.00036(ENGY(- 1)) (1.787) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.129 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.831 51. PGAO = 0.036 - 0.003(TIME) + 1.909(ULC(-1)) + 0.00134(ENGY(-1)) (0.340) (-0.391) (2.240) (1.235) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.371 R-squared = 0.971 D.W. = 1.738 52. PTOL = 1.000 53. PAIN = 0.038 + 0.004(TIME) + 1.343(ULC(- 1)) (0.317) (0.439) (2.329) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.477 R-squared = 0.843 D.W. = 1.462 54. PSTR = -0.087 + 0.019(TIME) + 0.835(ULC(-1)) (-1.498) (3.888) (3.586) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.777 R-squared = 0.933 D.W. = 1.340 55. PTAX = 0.026(TIME) + 0.180(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00142(ENGY(-1)) (3.239) (0.364) (2.831) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.858 R-squared = 0.995 D.W. = 1.748 56. PCRR = -0.104 + 0.019(TIME) + 0.854(ULC(-1)) (-1.881) (4.081) (3.744) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.767 R-squared = 0.993 D.W. = 1.306 57. PIRR = 0.130 - 0.007(TIME) + 1.880(ULC(-1)) + 0.00050(ENGY(-1 )) (2.552) (-1.677) (4.710) (1.013) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.541 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 1.656 58. PIBU = -0.301 - 0.002(TIME) + 2.367(ULC(-1)) + 0.00055(ENGY(- 1)) (-6.237) (-0.528) (6.207) (1.157) 75 Cochrane/Orcutt RHQ = 0.441 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.930 59. PIA1 = 0.081 - 0.003(TIME) + 1.838(ULC(-1)) (1.688) (-0.681) (8.837) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.736 R-squared = 0.991 D.W. = 1.559 60. PTRO = -0.417 + Q.022(TIME) + 1.405(ULC((-3.414) (2.708) (3.342) + 0.00023(ENGY(- 1)) (0.546) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.915 R-squared = 0.997 D.W. = 1.799 61. PBKS = 0.136 + O.OIQ(TIME) + 1.026(ULC(-1)) (9.196) (8.646) (8.837) 0.00013(ENGY(- 1)) (0.926) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.531 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.725 62. PMAG = -0.238 + 0.018(TIME) + 1.170(ULC(-+ 0.00087(ENGY(- 1)) (-4.700) (4.178) (4.224) (3.064) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO =0.870 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.949 63. PTOY = 0.318 + 0.004(TIME) + 1.015(ULC(-1)) (16.161) (2.462) (10.869) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.575 R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.668 64. PWHG = 0.425 + 0.003(TIME) + 0.798(ULC(-1)) + 0.00049(ENGY(- 1)) (12.557) (1.254) (3.004) (1.510) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.525 R-squared = 0.992 D.W. = 2.014 65. PRAD = 1.252 - 0.026(TIME) + 0.810(ULC(-1)) + 0.00025(ENGY(-1)) (14.013) (-3.402) (1.189) (0.321) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.682 R-squared = 0.939 D.W. = 0.827 76 66. PRTV = 1.271 - 0.006(TIME) + 0.00056(ENGY( -1 )) (5.351) (-0.726) (2.034) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.933 R-squared = 0.981 D.W. = 0.628 67. PFLO = 0.244 - 0.006(TIME) + 1.654(ULC(-1)) (4.346) (-1.280) (6.319). Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.634 R-squared = 0.965 D.W. = 2.022 68. PMOY = -0.508 + 0.037(TIME) + 0.774(ULC(-1)) (-8.125) (9.291) (5.551) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.893 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.123 69. PLEG = -0.407 + 0.036(TIME) + 0.622(ULC( -1 )) (-5.598) (7.701) (3.766) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.891 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.141 70. PSPE = 0.237 + 0.009(TIME) + 0.924(ULC( -1 )) + 0.00025(ENGY( -1 )) (6.555) (2.693) (3.384) (0.802) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.713 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.686 71. PCLU = -0.024 + 0.003(TIME) + 1.750(ULC(-1)) + 0.00009(ENGY(-1)) (-0.878) (1.306) (7.995) (0.323) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.222 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.850 72. PCOM = -0.060 + 0.014(TIME) + 1.180(ULC(-1)) + 0.00027(ENGY(-1)) (-2.802) (8.208) (6.936) (1.290) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.461 R-squared = 0.999 D.W. = 1.811 73. PPAR = -0.079 + 0.012(TIME) + 1.279(UCL(-1)) (-0.980) (2.323) (6.618) 77 Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.884 R~squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.395 74. PREO = 0.148 + 0.014(TIME) + 0.819(ULC(-1)) + 0.00003(ENGY (- 1)) (2.753) (3.292) (3.125) (0.104) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.884 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.754 75. PHED = -0.572 + 0.038(TIME) + 0.778(ULC(-1)) 4- 0.00046(ENGY(-1)) (-5.406) (5.687) (2.295) (1.391) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.919 R-squared = 0.998 D.W. = 1.714 76. PEED =• -0.254 - 0.001 (TIME) + 2.337(ULC(-1)) + 0.00041 (ENGY(- 1)) (-4.928) (-0.128) (5.758) (0.817) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.479 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.602 77. POED = 0.003 + Q.006(TIME) + 1.338(ULC(-1)) + 0.00117(ENGY( -1 )) (0.061) (1.828) (3.872) (2.648) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.346 R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.847 78. PREL - -0.059 - 0.0002(TIME) + 1.866(ULC(-1)) + 0.00069(ENGY(-1 )) (-1.545) (-0.059) (6.119) (1.732) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.217 R-squared = 0.994 D.W. = 1.817 79. PFTV = -0.052 - 0.002(TIME) + 2.115(ULC(-1)) + 0.00007(ENGY(-1 )) (-0.470) (-0.181) (2.511) (0.074) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.666 R-squared = 0.982 D.W. = 1.518 80. PABD = -0.230 - Q.019(TIME) + 3.121(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00111(ENGY(-1 )) (-1.923) (-1.951) (3.325) (0.962) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.520 R-squared = 0.979 D.W. = 1.399 78 81. PEXF = -0.010 - 0.003(TIME) + 2.001 (ULC(- 1)) + 0.00016(ENGY(-1)) (-0.300) (-1.021) (7.737) (0.496) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.380 R-squared = 0.996 D.W. = 1.668 82. PREM = 0.106 - 0.006(TIME) + 1.979(ULC(- 1)) + 0.00008(ENGY( -1)) (2.043) (-1.365) (4.839) (0.158) Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.450 R-squared = 0.990 D.W. = 1.586 79 Appendix 0. Federal Government Equations Regression equations were used to derive the levels of defense purchases and defense compensation, using variables supplied from the macro model. Since only total civilian compensation and total Federal purchases were available, they had to be allocated to the defense and nondefense sectors. Regression equations were also used for estimating defense and nondefense new con struction. Equations used in the Federal Government sector are given below: 1. Defense civilian compensaton = 122.3 + 0.4093 military compensation + 198.8 time R-squared = 0.9819 2. Total defense purchases = 16850.4 + 2.606 military compensation + 125.5 time R-squared = 0.9426 3. Nondefense total new construction = -3825.5 + 7.845 nondefense civilian employment + 0.0232 nondefense other purchases - 69.01 time 4. Nondefense nonresidential construction = -1731 + 3.30013 nondefense civilian employment - 0.013 nondefense other purchases - 35.981 time R-squared = 0.4515 5. Nondefense highway construction - 116.344 + 0.261 nondefense civilian employment - 0.0032 nondefense other purchases + 8.298 time R-squared = 0.9462 6. Nondefense industrial construction - 1977.4 + 4.284 nondefense civilian employment + 0.039 nondefense other purchases - 41.323 time R-squared = 0.9318 7. Defense new construction = 3662.4 - 1.047 military employment + 0.086 defense other purchases - 130.3 time R-squared = 0.5452 8. Defense nonresidential construction = 727.6 - 0.276 military employment + 0.0116 defense other purchases - 14.543 time R-squared = 0.4382 80 9. 10. Defense nonresidential construction = 641.2 - 0.270 military employment + 0.0182 defense other purchases - 1.716 time R-squared = 0.7723 Defense industry construction = 2794.7 - 0755 military employment + 0.0392 defense other purchases - 64.986 time R-squared = 0.8468 81 Appendix E. Labor Demand Equation® 1. Livestock and livestock products (EG !, 2) Hours = 13.6008 - 0.0034 UR - 0.2729 0 + 0.0288 E + 0.0319 P - 0.0444 L -0.3969 CD - 1.9584 LD (6.91231) (-0.128739) (-1.43117) (8.46595) (9.37601) ( - 13.0415)(-26.0707) (-128.648) R-squared = 0.9997 2. Other agricultural products (EG 3-5) Hours = 14.3160 + 0.0787 UR - 0.3692 O + 0.0338 E + 0.0369 P - 0.0262 L - 0.3969 CD - 1.8690 LD (6.47470) (1.79880) ( - 1.69568) (6.87544) (7.50514) (-5.32942) ( - 15.1853) (-71.5102) R-squared = 0.9990 3. Forestry and fishery products (EG 6) Hours = 10.6621 + 0.0750 UR - 0.0100 0 + 0.0260 E + 0.0291 P + 0.0012 L - 0.3969 CD -6.2216 LD (27.7360) (1.06852) ( —0.177016) (9.33735) (10.4496) (0.441836) ( - 11.0334) ( - 172.964) R-squared = 0.9998 4. Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services (EG 7) Hours = 13.3900 + 0.0638 UR - 0.3570 0 + 0.0344 E+ 0.0375 P + 0.0327 L - 0.3969 CD - 4.6109 LD (12.4061) (1.21591) (-2.68407) (9.40896) (10.2552) (8.94229) ( - 13.3616) ( - 155.234) R-squared = 0.9997 5. Iron and ferroalloy ores mining (EG 8) Hours = 4.5327 - 0.0054 UR + 0.1548 0 + 0.0807 E + 0.0810 P - 0.0136 L + 1.1977 CD - 1.3237 LD (3.30527) (-0.058401) (0.825382) (8.07832) (8.11388) ( - 1.36613) (15.0406) ( - 16.6230) R-squared = 0.9950 6. Nonferrous metal ores mining (EG 9, 10) Hours = 4.2638 - 0.0689 UR + 0.2603 0 + 0.0762 E + 0.0603 P - 0*0081 L + 1.4226 CD - 1.1806 LD (6.34762) ( - 1.63999) (2.73376) (12.3301) (9.76253) ( - 1.31604) (34.4806) (-28.6154) R-squared = 0.9985 7. Coal mining (EG 11) Hours = 3.8374 + 0.1821 UR + 0.3728 0 + 0.0672 E + 0.0673 P + 0.0042 L + 0.0090 CD - 1.5497 LD (1.37960) (2.16080) (1.17085) (9.86153) (9.86751) (0.613626) (0.159835) (-27.3833) R-squared = 0.9951 82 8. Crude petroleum and natural gas (EG 12) Hours = 8.7156 - 0.0207 UR + 0.0692 O - 0.0028 E + 0.0130 P - 0.0214 L + 1.5518 CD - 3.2333 LD (3.36521) (-5.53421) (60.9724) ( - 127.044) (6.40493) (-0.667125) (0.491384) (-0.713211) R-squared = 0.9998 9. Stone and clay mining and quarrying (EG 13) Hours - 4.6830 + 0.0184 UR + 0.2604 0 + 0.0679 E + 0.0650 P ■ 0.0058 L - 0.2872 CD - 1.2337 LD (3.05384) (0.523130) (1.31982) (12.1197) (11.6065) ( - 1.03041) (-9.03203) (-38.8002) R-squared = 0.9979 10. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining (EG 14) Hours = 5.1830 - 0.2028 UR + 0.1620 0 + 0.0418 E + 0.0742 P - 0.0244 L - 0.2596 CD - 1.9247 LD (6.31509) (-3.15457) (1.34253) (5.82662) (50.3392) (-3.40316)(-4.37166) (-32.4108) R-squared - 0.9963 11. New construction (EG 152) Hours = 6.0836 - 0.0423 UR + 0.2887 O + 0.0291 E + 0.0781 P + 0.0095 L (4.31199) (-1.35295) (2.41042) (9.29871) (24.9696) (3.03425) 1.7520 CD - 0.5320 LD (-62.9406) (-19.1113) R-squared = 0.9965 12. Maintenance and repair construction (EG 15) Hours = 5.3183 - 0.0744 UR + 0.39920 + 0.0317E + 0.0807 P + 0.0153 L - 1.7520CD - 2.1620 LD (2.96814) (-2.86776) (2.32627) (13.0844) (33.2934) (6.33084) (-63.8638) (-78.8091) R-squared = 0.9987 13. Ordnance and accessories (EG 16, 17) Hours = 3.1448 + 0.0294 UR + 0.3522 O + 0.0461 E + 0.0037 P - 0.0009 L + 0.6777 CD - 0.3016 LD (2.70101) (0.316957) (2.93040) (6.05276) (0.488010) ( - 0 .1 13898) (6.88238) (-3.06287) R-squared = 0.9340 14. Food and kindred products (EG 18-27) Hours = 8.8792 - 0.0016 UR + 0.0353 O + 0.0315 E + 0.0145 P - 0.0049 L + 0.0792 CD -1.0027 LD (4.16032) (-0.124796) (0.186519) (6.15069) (2.83517) (-0.957202) (6.85121) (-86.7477) R-squared = 0.9994 15. Tobacco manufactures (EG 28) Hours = 1.5655 - 0.0114 UR + 0.5101 O + 0.0310 E + 0.0382 P - 0.0181 L - 0.5084 CD - 0.8863 LD (1.48673) (-0.485025) (4.37784) (19.0565) (23.4586) ( - 11.0995) (-23.0646) (-40.2107) R-squared = 0.9976 16. Broad and narrow fabrics, yarn and thread mills (EG 29) Hours = 9.2822 - 0.0508 UR - 0.0893 O + 0.0193 E + 0.0283 P + 0.0010 L - 0.8725 CD - 1.1998 LD (5.82461) (-1.42139) (-0.546087)(5.22876) (7.66117) (0.272988) (-37.5934) (-51.6932) R-squared = 0.9973 83 17. Miscellaneous textile goods and floor coverings (EG 30, 31) Hours = 2.0156 + 0.1531 UR + 0.5673 O + 0.0024 E + 0.0085 P - 0.0103 L - 0.7053 CD - 1.2938 LD (1.86091) (4.62258) (4.14193) (0.267436) (0.944787) ( - 1.14546) (-21.3907) (-39.2407) R-squared = 0.9951 18. Apparel (EG 32, 33) Hours = 0.9133 + 0.1706 UR + 0.6108 O+ 0.0309 E + 0.0322 P - 0.0076 L - 0.5044 CD + 0.5430 LD (0.2-22410) (2.15553) (1.50163) (2.27588) (2.36958) (-0.558559) ( - 10.8482) (11.6777) R-squared = 0.9724 19. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products (EG 34) Hours = 3.7940 + 0.0743 UR + 0.1937 0 + 0.0541 E + 0.0265 P + 0.0095 L + 0.0066 CD +0.1910 LD (2.82293) (1.24656) (1.16044) (5.69237) (2.78834) (1.00359) (0.132210) (3.82449) R-squared = 0.9330 20. Lumber and wood products, except containers (EG 35-37) Hours = 6.4703 + 0.0033 UR+0.1686 O +0.0332 E+0.0178 P0.0021 L - 0.2081 CD - 0.8342 LD (5.63328) (0.167066) (1.40066) (8.16557) (4.37993) ( —0.518689)(-9.92489) (-39.7951) R-squared = 0.9971 21. Wood containers (EG 38) Hours = 4.8624 - 0.0415 UR + 0.2374 O - 0.0792 E + 0.0072 P - 0.0277 L - 1.3149 CD - 1.7521 LD (7.49817) (-0.821236) (2.77851) (-20.4344) (1.85919) (-7.15993) (-40.0025) (-53.3055) R-squared = 0.9948 22. Household furniture (EG 39) Hours = 3.2963 + 0.0169 UR + 0.3565 O+ 0.0268 E + (3.37712)(0.732097) (3.06709) (5.68664) (7.51702) 0.0354 P + 0.0080 L 0.0667 CD - 0 (1.69677) (-2.22233) ( - 1.74979) R-squared = 0.9698 23. Other furniture and fixtures (EG 40) Hours = 1.8642 + 0.0655 UR + 0.4782 O + 0.0225 E + 0.0241 P - 0.0040 L + 0.2351 CD - 0.0118 LD (0.877395)0.19511) (1.75683) (1.81666) (1.94321) ( -0.322818)(6.95322) (-0.347798) R-squared = 0.9764 24. Paper and allied products, except containers (EG 41) Hours = 11.4240 - 0.0917 UR - 0.2542 O + 0.0528 E + 0.0437 P + 0.0193 L - 0.9117 CD - 2.0606 LD (9.47887) (-5.58110) ( - 1.99604) (9.97459) (8.25491) (3.65087) ( —63.5316)(-143.5 R-squared = 0.9997 25. Paperboard containers and boxes (EG 42) Hours= 4.6944 - 0.0696 UR + 0.3210 0 + 0.0282 E + 0.0256 P + 0.0016 L - 0.5515 CD - 1.3080 LD (2.74605) (-1.91986) (1.63550) (3.67429) (3.33732) (0.203776) (-27.5545) (-65.3491) R-squared = 0.9985 84 26. Printing and publishing (EG 43-45) Hours = 5.4383 + 0.0246 UR + 0.2970 O +0.0279 E + 0.0286 P + 0.0061 L + 0.1821 CD - 0.8713 LD (1.87830) (0.485899) (1.02668) (2.94533) (3.01958) (0.642763) (6.76459) (-32.3730) R-squared = 0.9964 27. Chemicals and selected chemical products (EG 46-48) Hours - 12.2840 - 0.1323 UR - 0.3256 0 +0.0637 E + 0.0551 P + 0.0253 L - 0.6056 CD -2.3618 LD (6.64606) (-4.10280) ( - 1.66836)(6.22081) (5.38730) (2.47368) (-26.6406) ( - 103.889) R-squared = 0.9994 28. Plastics and synthetic materials (EG 49, 50) Hours = 6.5891 - 0.1022 UR + 0.18800 + 0.0521 E + 0.0392 P + 0.0143 L - 0.8771 CD - 2.1187 LD (6.01647) (-3.21263) (1.42187) (5.11852) (3.85139) (1.40439) (-34.4645) (-85.9998) R-squared = 0.9991 29. Drugs, cleaning and toilet preparations (EG 51, 52) Hours = 4.9239 + 0.0742 UR + 0.2692 0 + 0.0220E + 0.0319 P + 0.0125 L + 0.0276 CD - 1.4202 LD (2.11004) (3.26408) (1.00559) (1.16926) (1.69481) (0.665064) (1.04765) (-53.8526) R-squared = 0.9981 30. Paints and allied products (EG 53) Hours = 6.7258 - 0.0223 UR - 0.1090 O + 0.0384 E + 0.0397 P + 0.0118 L + 0.0078 CD - 0.9908 LD (6.30485) (-0.686122) (-0.815002) (8.32502) (8.62067) (2.56928) (0.281589) (-35.9648) R-squared = 0.9966 31. Petroleum refining and related industries (EG 54) Hours = 4.5834 + 0.2197 UR + 0.3257 O +0.0177 E + 0.0051 P - 0.0136 L + 1.3573 CD - 2.0936 LD (1.18002) (4.50709) (0.828256) (1.22176) (0.354877) (-0.941718) (28.4878) (-43.9415) R-squared = 0.9984 32. Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products (EG 55-57) Hours = 7.8685 - 0.0309 UR + 0.0133 0 + 0.0669 E + 0.0720 P + 0.0435 L - 1.0853 CD - 1.3816 LD (5.17595) (-0.910362) (0.081024) (6.81074) (7.32732) (4.42288) (-46.5702) (-59.2870) R-squared = 0.9983 33. Leather tanning and finishing (EG 58) Hours = 3.6835 + 0.0087 UR + 0.1764 0 + 0.0079 E + 0.0071 P - 0.0241 L - 0.4201 CD - 0.5988 LD (2.94074) (0.193339) (1.04962) (2.28535) (2.05912) (-6.99006) (-11.8930) (-16.9496) R-squared = 0.9853 34. Footwear and other leather products (EG 59) Hours - 3.5505 + 0.0426 UR + 0.2830 0 + 0.0140 E + 0.0082 P - 0.0138 L - 0.2399 CD + 0.5216 LD (1.25535) (0.517285) (0.889554) (5.33099) (3.10942) (-5.26285) (-7.31095) (15.8967) R-squared = 0.9699 85 35. Glass and glass products (EG 60) Hours = 7.0440 - 0.0375 UR +0.0163 0 + 0.0528 E + 0.0365 P + 0.0199 L - 0.3030 CD - 1,4043 LD (9.36470) ( -2.66054) (0.178361) (14.9031) (10.2802) ( 5.62122) (-21.2361) ( -98.4292); R -squared = 0.9994 36. Stone and clay products (EG 61-64) Hours = 6.5720 - 0.0130UR + 0.2120 0 + 0.0172 E + 0.0156 P + 0.0033 L - 0.3079 CD - 1.6663LD (9.51766) ( - 1.10592) (2.87121) (7.57050) (6.84357) (1.44762) ( - 21.0470) ( - 113.912) R -squared = 0.9994 37. Primary iron and steel manufacturing (EG 65, 66) Hours = 9.6868 - 0.0339 UR -10.0136 O + 0.0330 E + 0.0018 P + 0.0069 L + 0.0536 CD - 2.0155 LD (6.83919) ( - 1.35926) ( -0.101250) (9.77175) (0.524092) (2.03228) (1.87778) ( -70.5423) R-squared = 0.9987 38. Primary nonferrous metals manufacturing (EG 67-69) Hours = 9.1374 0.0237 UR (5.52458) (-0.950302) (-0.518528) (7.48121) 0.0881 O (5.99761) + (3.34683) 0.0484 E+ 0.0388 P + 0.02 ( - 12.2833) (-56.6887) R-squared = 0.9979 39. Metal containers (EG 70) Hours = 2.8267 + (5.49407) (2.59985) 0.0219 UR + (7.32983) (10.7829) 0.4741 O + 0.0293 E + 0.0057 P - 0.0022 L - 0 (2.11723) (-0.824418)(-63.4256) ( - 123.100) R-squared = 0.9996 40. Heating, plumbing, and structural metal products (EG 71, 72) Hours = 3.7643 + 0.0377 UR + 0.3793 O + 0.0236 E + 0.0231 P + 0.0068 L - 0.0238 CD -0.5625 LD (3.76899) (2.40861) (3.50391) (5.44062) (5.32441) (1.56185) ( - 1.26305) (-29.8857) R-squared = 0.9958 41. Screw machine products and stampings (EG 73, 74) Hours = 6.4888 - 0.0577 UR + 0.1406 0 + 0.0199 E + 0.0255 P + 0.0157 L - 0.6740 CD - 1.3083 LD (4.71249) ( - 1.39467) (0.955580) (4.68727) (6.01209) (3.69587) (-21.9807) (-42.6654) R-squared = 0.9952 42. Other fabricated metal products (EG 75, 76) Hours = 4.7401 - 0.0149 UR + 0.3194 0 + 0.0301 E + 0.0297 P + 0.0109 L - 0.4965 CD -0.9954 LD (2.98904) (-0.479572) (1.86230) (4.36390) (4.30320) (1.57504) (-24.2211) (-48.5610) R-squared = 0.9974 43. Engines and turbines (EG 77) Hours = 2.4235 + 0.0707 UR + 0.4909 O + 0.0373 E + 0.0169 P - 0.0012 L - 0.2952 CD - 1.1839 LD (3.75733) (4.39233) (5.78988) (6.07928) (2.75860) ( —0.187541)( —8.89214) (-35.6588) R-squared = 0.9962 86 44. Farm and garden machinery (EG 78) Hours = 4.7659 - 0.0103 UR + 0.2317 O + 0.0156 E ‘ + 0.0208 P + 0.0066 L - 0.4062 CD - 1.1012 LD (8.67798) (-0.521196) (3.46775) (4.12825) (5.51149) (U76264) ( - 11.1736) (-30.2937) R-squared = 0.9918 45. Construction and mining machinery (JEG 79) Hours = 3.7526 + 0.0517 UR + 0.3676 0 + 0.0249 E + 0.0285 P + 0.0159 L - 0.5476 CD - 1.2260 LD (4.93452) (2.73460) (4.11630) (5.32296) (6.07852) (3.40269) ( - 16.6734) (-37.3316) R-squared = 0.9946 46. Materials handling machinery and equipment (EG 80) Hours = 2.5465 + 0.0317 UR + 0.3357 0 + 0.0363 E + 0.0108 P + 0.0162 L + 0.7116 CD -0.1875 LD (2.42657) (0.940534) (2.40149) (4.75064) (1.40991) (2.11660) (19.5749) (-5.15835) R-squared = 0.9869 47. Metalworking machinery and equipment (EG 81) Hours = 2.2360 + 0.0900 UR+ 0.5925 0 + (1.18056) (1.33777) (2.80954) (2.73540) 0.0177 E + 0.0062 P+ 0.0017 L (0.962646) (0.267561) (-7.87024) (-25.8447) 0.3373 0.0325 E + 0.0411 P+ 0.0074 L (7.34807) (1.31880) ( - 14.1391) (-25.3705) 0.4646 R-squared = 0.9897 48. Special industry machinery and equipment (EG 82) Hours = 5.7346 0.0365 UR+ 0.1241 O+ (4.03606) (-0.944480) (0.744430) (5.80711) R-squared = 0.9921 49. General industrial machinery and equipment (EG 83) Hours = 6.3487 - 0.0376 UR + 0.0842 0 + 0.0459 E + 0.0439 P+ 0.0189 L - 0.3861 CD - 0.9124 (4.32158) (-0.934518) (0.504309) (6.94789) (6.65007) (2.85843) ( - 12.0326)(-28.4386) R-squared = 0.9939 50. Miscellaneous machinery, except elecrical (EG 84) Hours = 3.1817 - 0.0407 UR + 0.3891 O (3.81756) (-1.60017) (3.74872) (10.2121) +0.0548 E +0.0467 P + 0.0062 L - 0.4773 CD -0.2583 LD (8.71370) (1.15650) ( - 13.2734) (-7.18471) R-squared = 0.9885 51. Office, computing, and accounting machines (EG 85-86) Hours = 4.4281 + 0.0269 UR + 0.2079 0 + 0.0789 E + 0.0355 P + 0.0356 L + 0.1727 CD - 0.4681 LD (4.95590) (1.23509) (1.82346) (7.15927) (3.21694) (3.23206) (4.91727) (-13.3307) R-squared = 0.9923 52. Service industry machines (EG 87) Hours = 2.4574 + 0.0730 UR + 0.4904 O + 0.0047 E + 0.0053 P - 0.0011 L - 0.1298 CD - 1.0844 LD (2.69108) (3.79476) (4.05958) (0.388016) (0.440303) (-0.094667)(-3.39648) (-28.3829) R-squared = 0.9925 87 53. Electric industrial equipment and apparatus (EG 88, 89) Hours = 3.4693 + 0.0644 UR + 0.4008 O + 0.0298 E + 0.0196 P + 0.0032 L + 0.0005 CD -0.5371 LD (1.79041) (1.32354) (1.84710) (2.92778) (1.92703) (0.316287) (0.014774) ( - 15.4072) R-squared = 0.9873 54. Household appliances (EG 90) Hours - 7.1620 - 0.0049 UR - 0.0683 O + 0.0334 E + 0.0223 P + 0.0214 L - 0.0300 CD - 0.8966 LD (4.18275) (-0.111250) (-0.332826) (3.14145) (2.09656) (2.01344) ( - 1.00173) (-29.9648) R-squared = 0.9931 55.' Electric lighting and wiring equipment (EG 91) Hours = 3.6073 - 0.0125 UR + 0.3478 O + 0.0360 E + 0.0342 P + 0.0207 L - 0.5277 CD - 0.7943 LD (1.77763) (-0.318578) (1.39823) (3.31318) (3.14128) (1.90372) ( - 15.8689) (23.8852) R-squared = 0.9910 56. Radio, television, and communication equipment (EG 92-94) Hours = 5.2123 - 0.0275 UR + 0.1823 0 + 0.0725 E + 0.0417 P + 0.0070 L + 0.2659 CD + 0.1425 LD (6.90274) (-9676843) (2.29905) (12.2863) (7.07512) (1.18065) (5.97506) (3.20241) R-squared = 0.9760 57. Electronic components and accessories (EG 95) Hours = 5.0243 - 0.1583 UR + 0.1863 0 + 0.1073 E + 0.0686 P + 0.0244 L - 0.1208 CD - 0.1312 LD (4.09080) (-2.64959) (1.25091) (7.63724) (4.87907) (1.73891) (-2.56355) (-2.78474) R-squared = 0.9897 58. Miscellaneous electrical machinery and supplies (EG 96) Hours = -0.1909 + 0.1706 UR + 0.7548 O + 0.0171 E + 0.0138 P - 0.0188 L - 0.4495 CD - 0.4559 LD (-0.078609X3.24880) (2.41385) (0.978065) (0.789043) ( - 1.07500) ( - 10.2960) ( - 10.4421) R-squared = 0.9805 59. Motor vehicles and equipment (EG 97) Hours = 7.6538 - 0.0127 UR + 0.111 O + 0.0268 E + 0.0309 P + 0.0180 L - 0.6323 CD - 1.5499 LD (5.12740) (-0.473320) (0.794313) (3.93478) (4.53269) (2.64707) ( - 14.6492) (-35.9084) R-squared = 0.9937 60. Aircraft and parts (EG 98) Hours = 0.7045 + 0.0728 UR + 0.6786 O + 0.0488 E + 0.0182 P - 0.0194 L + 0.5444 CD - 0.1330 LD (0.622703) (1.62612) (6.19148) (12.8435) (4.78590) (-5.11866) (10.2990) (-2.51536) R-squared = 0.9799 61. Other transportation equipment (EG 99-102) Hours = 3.3285 + 0.1155 UR + 0.3468 O + 0.0214 E - 0.0116 P + 0.0216 L + 0.9453 CD - 0.4124 LD (2.46187) (3.16697) (2.17915) (1.76423) (-0.953124) (1.78304) (16.8219) (-7.33835) R-squared = 0.9777 88 62. Scientific and controlling instruments (EG 103-104, 107) Hours = 6.8865 - 0.0523 UR - 0.0432 O + 0.0511 E + 0.0678 P + 0.0316 L - 0.2551 CD - 0.5165 LD (7.44723) (-3.34672) (-0.392407) (10.3087) (13.6724) (6.36368) ( - 8.94246) ( - 18.1056) ss R-squared = 0.9917 63. Optical, ophthalmic, and photographic equipment (EG 105, 106) Hours = 3.3484 + 0.0583 UR + 0.3818 0 + 0.0389 E + 0.0376 P - 0.0116 L - 0.1798 CD - 0.6272 LD (6.90956) (3.74925) (5.94866) (6.59703) (6.36965) ( - 1.96511) (-5.61340) ( - 19.5838) R-squared = 0.9945 64. Miscellaneous manufacturing (EG 108-110) Hours = 6.9081 - 0.0209 UR -0.0289 O + 0.0529 E + 0.0529 P + 0.0105 L - 0.2012 CD + 0.0965 LD (6.10093) ( - 1.69765) (-0.225030) (9.83592) (9.83685) (1.95074) ( - 11.6485) (5.58724) R-squared = 0.9918 65. Transportation and warehousing (EG 111-117) Hours .= 9.7853 - 0.0089 UR + 0.1061 O +0.0269 E - 0.0115 P - 0.0006 L + 0.2011 CD - 2.2262 LD (6.45064) (-0.855953) (0.751633) (5.40736) (-2.31799) (-0.129051) (14.7808) ( - 163.640) R-squared = 0.9998 66. Radio and television broadcasting (EG 118) Hours = 6.9223 - 0.0932 UR - 0.0817 O + 0.0894 E + 0.0828 P + 0.0312 L + 0.3552 CD - 0.9647 LD (8.23618) (-2.70448) (-0.806311) (32.0578) (29.7142) (11.1787) (10.7664) (-29.2446) R-squared = 0.9976 67. Communications, except radio and television (EG 119) Hours = 3.6459 + 0.0009 UR + 0.6067 O + 0.0506E + 0.0077 P - 0.0194 L + 0.7159 CD - 2.0151 LD (1.98253) (0.057214) (3.03905) (3.38110) (0.513385) ( - 1.29281) (36.0664) ( - 101.519) R-squared = 0.9997 68. Electric, gas, water, and sanitary services (EG 120-122) Hours = 16.2056 + 0.0805 UR - 0.6404 Q + 0.0982 E + 0.0836 P + 0.0520 L + 1.3283 CD - 2.6286 LD (6.29216) (2.87725) (-2.51998) (6.89201) (5.86418) (3.64760) (41.8917) (-82.8999) R-squared = 0.9995 69. Wholesale and retail trade (EG 123-125) Hours ■= 7.5527 - 0.0095 UR + 0.2231 O + 0.0439 E + 0.0534 P + 0.0059 L + 0.1637 CD + 0.0045 LD (3.26262) (-0.379661) (1.15739) (5.62240) (6.83613) (0.761329) (9.51478) (0.259608) R-squared = 0.9958 70. Finance and insurance (EG 126-128) Hours = 17.2737 - 0.2367 UR - 1.0387 0 + 0.3002 E + 0.1051 P + 0.0696 L + 3.5167 CD + 2.3514 LD (2.57278) ( - 1.87710) (-1.64790) (12.2407) (4.28656) (2.83659) (37.2821) (24.9283) R-squared = 0.9878 89 71. Real estate and rental (EG 129, 130) Hours = 7.9091 + 0.1184 UR + 0.0515 0 + 0.0240 E + 0.0578 P + 0.0183 L + 1.2531 CD + 1.3589 LD (1.19588) (0.469198) (-0.875903) (0.900736) (2.09085) (1.00259) ( - 12.1084) ( - 10.1148) R-squared = 0.9224 72. Hotels; personal and repair services except auto (EG 131-133) Hours = -0.6222 + 0.0041 UR + 0.9247 O + 0.0064 E + 0.0098 P - 0.0272 L + 1.6454 CD +0.0859 LD (-0.285511X0.090010) (4.33230) (1.05156) (1.61527) (-4.47190) (73.3688) (3.83018) R-squared = 0.0 73. Business services (EG 134-136) Hours = 5.0285 - 0.0634 UR + 0.3501 O +0.0801 E + 0.0732 P + 0.0302 L - 1.7523 CD -0.5648 LD (2.09731) ( - 1.15104) (1.55362) (6.80547) (6.22051) (2.56859) (-54.1671) ( - 17.4597) R-squared = 0.9976 74. Automobile repair and services (EG 137) Hours = 7.8774 - 0.1020 UR + 0.0250 0 + 0.0872 E + 0.0762 P + 0.0234 L - 0.1600 CD - 1.1922 LD (5.35361) (-3.74399) (0.163979) (16.5724) (14.4917) (4.44650) (-7.44163) (-55.4426) R-squared = 0.9990 75. Amusements (EG 138, 139) Hours = 8.9309 - 0.0403 UR - 0.0932 O + 0.0696 E + 0.0725 P + 0.0252 L + 0.5733 CD - L1442 LD (10.8057) ( - 1.24950) (-0.993733) (20.4597) (21.3059) (7.41229) (25.0105) (-49.9158) R-squared = 0.9990 76. Medical and educational services and nonprofit organizations (EG 140-144) Hours = 8.3694 - 0.0679 UR + 0.0743 0 + 0.0854 E + 0.0547 P + 0.0316 L + 1.7871 CD -0.1766 LD (2.22602) (-3.09157) (0.210561) (5.29626) (3.39493) (1.96221) (102.013) ( - 10.0821) R-squared = 0.9995 UR = O = E = P = L = CD = LD = Unemployment rate Output Equipment time trend Plant time trend Labor time trend Dummy variable-capital Dummy variable-labor 90 Appendix F. Economic Growth Sectoring Plan 91 Appendix F. Economic Growth Sectoring Plan Industry sector title Industry sector number Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output sector Standard Industrial Classification(SiC) 1972 A g ric u ltu re , f o r e s tr y , a n d fis h e rie s Dairy and poultry products.................................... Meat animals and liv e s to c k .................................. C o tto n ...................................................................... Food and feed g ra in s ............................................ Agricultural products, n .e .c ................................... Forestry and fishery products .............................. Agricultural, forestry,and fishery service s.................................................................. pt.01, pt. 02 pt. 01, pt. 02 pt. 01, pt. 02 pt. 01, pt. 02 pt. 01, pt. 02 08 (except 085), 091, 0971 1 2 3 14 5 6 1.01— 102 1.03 2.01 2.02 2.02—20.7 3.00 7 4.00 071, 072, 075, 078, 085, 092 8 9 5.00 6.01 101, 106 102 10 11 12 13 14 6.02 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 15 12.01— 12.02 pt. 15, pt. 16, pt. 17, pt. 138 M in in g Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ............................ Copper ore m in in g ................................................. Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper .................................................................... Coal m inin g............................................................. Crude petroleum and natural g a s ........................ Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ................ 10 (except 101, 102, 106, pt. 108, 109) 11, 12 13 (except pt. 138) 14 (except 147, pt. 148) 147 M a in te n a n c e a n d r e p a ir c o n s tr u c tio n Maintenance and repair construction.................. M a n u fa c tu r in g Ordnance ................................................................ Complete guided missiles and space ve h ic le s .................................................................. Meat products ........................................................ Dairy products ........................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s ..................................... Grain mill products................................................. Bakery p ro d u c ts..................................................... Sugar ....................................................................... Confectionery products ......................................... Alcoholic beverages .............................................. 16 13.02— 13.07 348, 3795 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 13.01 14.01 14.02— 14.06 14.07— 14.13 14.14— 14.17 14.18 14.19 14.20 14.21 3761 201 202 203, 2091 2092 204 205 2061— 2063 2065— 2067 208 (except 2086— 2087) Soft drinks and flavo rings..................................... Food products, n.e.c ............................................. Tobacco manufacturing......................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................... Floor covering mills ............................................... Textile mill products, n .e .c .................................... Hosiery and knit goods ......................................... A p p a re l.................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n .e .c......................... Logging.................................................................... 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 1422— 14.23 14.24— 14.32 15.01— 15.02 16.01— 16.04 17.01 17.02— 17.10 18.01— 18.03 18.04 19.01— 19.03 20.02 2086-2087 207, 209 (except 2091— 2092) 21 221— 224, 226, 228 227 229 225 23 (exceut 239), 39996 239 241 Sawmills and planing m ills .................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.cn.e.c................................................................. Wooden containers................................................ Household furniture ............................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household .............................................................. Paper p ro d u cts....................................................... Paperboard ............................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing ..................... Periodical and book printing, publishing............................................................... Printing and publishing, n.e.c ............................... 36 20.02—20.04 37 38 39 20.05—20.09 21.00 22.01—22.04 243, 2448, 245 (except 2451), 249 244 (except 2448) 251 40 41 42 43 23.01—23.07 24.01—24.07 25.00 26.01 25 (except 251) 26 (except 265) 265 271 44 45 26.02—26.04 26.05— 26.08 272— 274 275— 279 46 47 48 49 50 27.01 27.02—27.03 27.04 28.01—28.02 28.03—28.04 281 (except 28195), 2865, 2869 287 2861, 289 2821— 2822 2823— 2824 Industrial inorganic and organic che m icals............................................................... Agricultural chem icals............................................ Chemical products, n.e.c ...................................... Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r................ Synthetic fib e rs ....................................................... Drugs .......................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations............................. Paints and allied products ....................................... 51 52 53 29.01 29.02—29.03 30.00 See footnotes at end of table. 92 242 293 284 285 Appendix F. Economic Growth Sectoring Plan—Continued Industry sector title Industry sector number Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output sector Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 1972 Petroleum refining and related products................ Tires and inner tubes ............................................... Rubber products, except tires and tubes .............. Plastic products......................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather ................... Leather products, including fo o tw e a r..................... G lass........................................................................... 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 31.01—31.03 32.01 32.02—32.03,32.05 32.04 33.00 34.01—34.03 35.01—35.02 Cement and concrete products .............................. Structural clay products ........................................... Pottery and related products................................... Stone and clay products, n.e.c ............................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products ............... Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s .................... Primacy copper and copper products..................... Primary aluminum and aluminum products............ Primary nonferrous metals and products, n .e .c ........................................................................... Metal containers........................................................ Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .............. Fabricated structural metal products...................... Screw machine products ......................................... Metal stam pings........................................................ Cutlery, handtools, and general hardw are............. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c ............................ Engines, turbines, and generators.......................... Farm machinery ........................................................ Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery ................................................................. 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 324, 327 36.01,36.10—36.14 325 36.02—36.05 36.06—39.09 326 328, 329 36.15—36.22 37.01 331 37.02—37.04 332, 339, 3462 38.01, 38.07, 38.10, 38.12 3331, 3351, 3357, 3362 3334, 28195, 3353-55, 3361 38.04, 38.08, 38.11 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 29 301 3 0 2 -3 0 6 307 311 31 (except 311) 3 2 1 -3 2 3 38.02, 38.03, 38.05, 38.06 3332, 3333, 3339, 334, 3356, 3369, 3463 39.01— 39.02 341 40.01—40.03 343 40.04—40.09 344 41.01 345 41.02 346 (except 3462— 3463) 42.01—42.03 342 42.04—42.11 347, 349 43.01—43.026 351 44.00 352 79 45.01—45.03 Material handling equipment ................................... Metalworking machinery........................................... Special industry m achinery...................................... General industrial m achinery................................... Nonelectrical machinery, n .e .c ................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent.................... Typewriters and other office eq uipm e nt................ Service industry m achines....................................... Electric transmission equipm e nt............................. Electrical industrial apparatus ................................. 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 46.01—46.04 47.01—47.04 48.01—48.06 49.01—49.07 50.00 51.01 51.02—51.04 52.01— 52.05 53.01— 53.03 53,04—53.08 353 (except 3531— 3533) 354 355 356 359 3573— 3574 357 (except 3573, 3574) 358 361, 3825 362 Household appliances.............................................. Electric lighting and w irin g ....................................... Radio and television receiving s e ts ........................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus ...................... Radio and communication equipm ent.................... Electronic com ponents............................................. Electrical machinery and equipment, n .e .c ........................................................................... Motor ve h ic le s ........................................................... Aircraft ........................................................................ Ship and boat building and repair .......................... 90 91 92 93 94 95 54.01—54.07 55.01— 55.03 56.01— 56.02 56.03 56.04 57.01— 57.03 363 364 365 3661 3662 367 96 97 98 99 58.01—58.05 59.01— 59.03 60.01—60.04 61.01—61.02 369 371 372, 376 (except 3761) 373 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 61.03 61.05 61.06—61.07 62.01—62.03 62.04—62.06 63.01—63.02 63.03 374 375 379 (except 3795), 2451 381, 382 (except 3825) 384 383, 385 386 107 108 109 110 62.07 64.01 64.02—64.04 64.05—64.12 387 391, 3961 393, 394 395, 396 (except 3961), 399 (except 39996) 111 65.01 65.02 65.03 65.04 65.05 65.06 65.07 Railroad equipm ent................................................... Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ............................. Transportation equipment, n.e.c ............................. Scientific and controlling instrum ents..................... Medical and dental instrum ents.............................. Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent......................... Photographic equipment and s u p plies................... Watches, clocks, and clock-operated d e vice s...................................................................... Jewelry and silverw are............................................. Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ............... Manufactured products, n.e.c................................... 3531-3533 T r a n s p o r ta tio n Railroad transportaion........................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s.......................... Truck transportation............................................... Water transportation.............................................. Air transportation.................................................... Pipeline transportation........................................... Transportation service s......................................... 112 113 114 115 116 117 See footnotes at end of table. 93 40, 474, pt. 4789 41 42, pt. 4789 44 45 46 47 (except 474, pt. 4789) Appendix F. Economic Growth Sectoring Plan—Continued Industry sector title Industry sector number Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output sector Standard Industrial Classification(SIC) 1972 C om m unication 483 118 67.00 119 66.00 120 121 68.01, 78.02, 79.02 68.02 122 68.03 49 (except 491, 492, pt. 493) 123 124 69.01 74.01 50, 51 58 125 69.02 52-57, 59, 7396, pt. 8042 126 127 128 129 130 70.01 70.02— 70.02 70.04—70.05 71.01 71.02 Hotels and lodging p la c e s .................................... Personal and repair services................................ 131 132 72.01, 77.08 72.02 Barber and beauty shops ..................................... Business services, n.e.c......................................... Advertising .............................................................. Professional services, n.e.c................................... Automobile re p a ir................................................... Motion pictures....................................................... Amusements and recreation service s................. Doctors” and dentists” services.......................... Hospitals ................................................................. Medical services, except ho spitals...................... Educational services.............................................. Nonprofit organizations......................................... 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 72.03 73.01 73.02 73.03 75.00 76.01 76.02 77.01 77.02 77.03 77.04, 77.06—77.07 77.05, 77.09 145 146 147 148 78.01 78.03 78.04 79.01 43 n.a. n.a. n.a. 149 79.03 n.a. 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 80.00 81.00 n.a. 82.00 83.00 84.00 85.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Radio and television broadcasting .............. !...... Communications, except radio and television................................................................ 48 (except 483) ‘ Electric, gas, sanitary services Electric utilities, public and private ...................... Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic ............................... Water and sanitary services, excluding p u b lic ...................................................................... 491, pt. 493 492, pt. 493 Trade Wholesale tra d e ..................................................... Eating and drinking places ................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking p la c e s ...................................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate Banking ................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers................. Insurance ................................................................ Owner-occupied real estate ................................. Real estate .......................................... ................... 60 61, 62, 67 63, 64 n.a. 65, 66, pt. 1531 O ther services 70, 836 72 (except 723. 724), 76 (except 7692, 7694, and pt. 7699) 723, 724 73 (except 731, 7396), 7692, 7694, pt. 7699 731 81, 89 (except 8922) 75 78 79 801-803, 8041 806 074, 8049, 805, 807— 809 82, 833, 835 832, 839, 84, 86, 8922 G overnm ent enterprises Post o ffic e ............................................................... Commodity Credit C orporation............................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c....................................... Local government passenger tra n s it................... State and local government enterprises, n.e.c............................................................. Special industries Noncomparable im p o rts........................................ Scrap, used and secondhand goods .................. Construction indu stry............................................. Government in d u s try ............................................. Rest of the world industry .................................... H ouseholds............................................................. Inventory valuation ad ju stm en t............................ T n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified. n-3- — n0* applicable. 94 Appendix G. Occupations Included in the Industry-Occupational Mode! 95 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model Occupation title Occupation title Total, all occupations Health technologists and technicians— Continued Surgical technicians X-ray technicians All other health technologists and technicians Professional, technical, and related workers Engineers Aeronautical and astronautical engineers Chemical engineers Civil engineers Electrical engineers Industrial engineers Mechanical engineers Metallurgical engineers Mining engineers Petroleum engineers All other engineers Technicians, except health, science, and engineering Airplane pilots Air traffic controllers Embalmers Flight engineers Radio operators Technical assistants, library Tool programmers, numerical control Other technicians, except health, science, engineering Life and physical scientists Agricultural scientists Biological scientists Chemists Geologists Medical scientists Physicists All other life and physical scientists Computer specialists Computer programmers Computer systems analysts Social scientists Economists Financial analysts Psychologists Sociologists Urban and regional planners All other social scientists Mathematical specialists Actuaries Mathematicians Statisticians All other mathematical scientists Teachers Adult education teachers College and university teachers Dance instructors Elementary school teachers Extension service specialists Graduate assistants Preschool and kindergarten teachers Secondary school teachers Vocational education teachers All other teachers Engineering and science technicians Broadcast technicians Civil engineering technicians Drafters Electrical and electronic technicians Industrial engineering technicians Mechanical engineering technicians Surveyors All other engineering and science technicians Medical workers, except technicians Chiropractors Dentists Dietitians Nurses, professional Optometrists Pharmacists Physicians, medical and osteopathic Podiatrists Therapists Inhalation therapists Manual arts, music, recreational therapists Occupational therapists Physical therapists Speech and hearing clinicians All other therapists Veterinarians Selected writers, artists, and entertainers Actors Athletes Commercial artists Dancers Designers Film editors Music directors Musicians, instrumental Painters, artistic Photographers Public relations specialists Radio and TV announcers Announcers Broadcast news analysts Reporters and correspondents Singers Sports instructors Writers and editors Writers, artists, entertainers, n.e.c. Health technologists and technicians Cytotechnologists Dental hygienists Dietetic technicians EKG technicians Health records technologists Licensed practical nurses Medical technicians Medical lab technologists Pharmacy helpers Physical therapy technicians Radiologic and nuclear medical technicians Other professional and technical workers Accountants and auditors Architects Archivists and curators Assessors Audio visual specialists, education B roker's floor reps and security traders Buyers, retail and wholesale trade 96 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model—Continued Occupation title Occupation title Clerical workers— Continued Other technical and professional workers— Continued Claim examiners, property/casualty insurance Claims takers, unemployment benefits Clergy Cost estimators Credit analysts, chief Credit analysts Directors, religious education and activities Employment interviewers Foresters Insurace investigators Judges Law clerks Lawyers Paralegal personnel Librarians Magistrates Media buyers Personnel and labor relations specialists Purchasing agents and buyers Recreation workers, group Safety inspectors Social workers Caseworkers Community organization workers Special agents, insurance Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents Tax preparers Title examiners and abstractors Underwriters Vocational and educational counselors Welfare investigators All other professional workers Admissions evaluators Bank tellers New accounts tellers Tellers Bookkeepers and accounting clerks Accounting clerks Bookkeepers, hand Brokerage clerks Car rental clerks Cashiers Checking clerks Circulation clerks Claims adjusters Claims clerks Claims examiner, insurance Clerical supervisors Collectors, bill and account Court clerks Credit authorizers Credit clerks, banking and insurance Credit reporters Customer service representatives, printing, publishing Desk clerks, bowling floor Desk clerks, except bowling floor Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance Dispatchers, vehicle, service, or work Eligibility workers, welfare File clerks General clerks, office In-file operators Insurance checkers Insurance clerks, except medical Library assistants Loan closers Mail carriers, postal service Mail clerks Marking clerks, trade Messengers Meter readers, utilities Mortgage closing clerks Office machine operators Bookkeeping and billing operators Bookkeeping, billing machine operators Proof machine operators Transit clerks Computer, peripheral equipment operators Computer operators Peripheral EDP equipment operators Duplicating machine operators Keypunch operators Tabulating machine operators All other office machine operators Order clerks Payroll and timekeeping clerks Personnel clerks Policy change clerks Postal clerks Procurement clerks Managers, officials, and proprietors Auto parts department managers Auto service department managers Construction inspectors, public administration Inspectors, except construction, public administration Postmasters and mail superintendents Railroad conductors Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers Sales managers, retail trade Store managers Wholesalers All other managers Sales workers Broker and market operators, commodities Contribution solicitors Crafting and moving estimators Real estate appraisers Real estate brokers Sales agents and representatives, real estate Sales agents and representatives, insurance Production clerks Proofreaders Rate clerks, freight Raters Real estate clerks Receptionists Reservation agents Safe deposit clerks Secretaries, stenographers, and typists Secretaries Sales agents and representatives, security Sales clerks Travel agents and accommodations appraisers Vendors All other sales workers Clerical workers Adjustment clerks 97 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational mode!—Continued Occupation title Occupation title Machanics, repairs, and installers— Continued Electrical instrument and tool repairers Electric motor repairers Electric powerline installers and repairers Cable splicers Line installers and repairers Trouble shooters, powerline Engineering equipment mechanics Farm equipment mechanics Gas and electric appliance repairers Gas and electric meter installers Household appliance installers Hydroelectric machine mechanics Instrument repairers Knitting machine fixers Laundry machine mechanics Locksmiths Loom fixers Maintenance mechanics Maintenance repairers, general utility Marine mechanics and repairers Millwrights Mine machinery mechanics Mobile home repairers Musical instrument repairers Office machine and cash register servicers Pinsetter mechanics, automatic Radio and television repairers Railroad car repairers Railroad signal and switch maintainers Section repairers and setters Sewing machine mechanics Shoe repairers Telephone installers and repairers Cable repairers Cable installers Central office repairers Frame wirers Installers, repairers, and section maintainers Station installers Trouble locators, test desk All other telephone installers and repairers Water meter installers All other mechanics, repairers, and installers Clerical workers— Continued Stenographers Typists Service clerks Service representatives Shipping and receiving clerks Shipping packers Statement clerks Statistical clerks Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse Survey workers Switchboard operators/receptionists Teacher” s aides, except monitors Telephone ad takers, newspapers Telegraph operators Telephone operators Switchboard operators Central office operators Directory assistance operators All other telephone operators Ticket agents Title searchers Town clerks Traffic agents Traffic clerks Transportation agents Travel counselors, auto club Weighers Worksheet clerks Yard clerks All other clerical workers Crafts and related workers Construction crafts workers Air-hammer operators Asbestos and insulation workers Brickmasons Carpenters Carpet cutters and layers Ceiling tile installers and floor layers Concrete and terrazzo finishers Dry wall installers and lathers Dry wall applicators 'Lathers Tapers Electricians Fitters, pipelaying Glaziers Highway maintenance workers Painters, construction and maintenance Paperhangers Plasterers Plumbers and pipefitters Refractory materials repairers Roofers Shipwrights Stonemasons Structural steel workers Tile setters Mechanics, repairers, and installers Metalworking crafts workers, except mechanics Blacksmiths Boilermakers Coremakers, hand, bench, and floor Forging press operators Header operators Heat treaters, annealers, and temperers Layout markers, metal Machine tool setters, metalworking Machinists Molders, metal Molders, bench and floor Molders, machine All other molders, metal Patternmakers, metal Punch press setters, metal Rolling mill operators and helpers Shear and slitter setters Sheet metal workers and tinsmiths T ool-and-die-makers All other metalworking crafts workers Air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanics Aircraft mechanics Auto body repairers Auto seat cover and top installers Automotive mechanics Auto repair service estimators Bicycle repairers Coin machine servicers and repairers Data processing machine mechanics Diesel mechanics 98 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model—Continued Occupation title Occupation title Metalworking crafts workers, except mechanics— Continued Printing trades crafts workers Bookbinders, hand and machine Bindery machine setters Compositors and typesetters Electrotypers and stereotypers Etchers and engravers Photoengravers and lithographers Camera operators, printing Photoengravers Strippers, printing Press and plate printers Letter press operators Offset lithographic press operators Platemakers Press operators and plate printers All other press and plate printers Operatives Assemblers Aircraft structure and surfaces assemblers Clock and watch assemblers Electrical and electronic assemblers Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers Instrument makers and assemblers Machine assemblers All other assemblers Bindery operatives Bindery workers, assembly Bindery workers, stitching All other bindery operatives Laundry, drycleaning, and pressing machine operatives Drycleaners, hand and machine Folders, laundry Laundry operators, small establishment Markers, classifiers, and assemblers Pressers, hand Pressers, machine Pressers, machine laundry Rug cleaners, hand and machine Shapers and pressers Spotters, drycleaning and washable materials Washers, machine and starchers All other laundry and drycleaning operatives Other crafts and related workers Auxiliary equipment operators Bakers Blue-collar worker supervisors Cabinetmakers Control room operators, steam Crane, derrick, and hoist operators Dental lab technicians Food shapers, hand Furniture finishers Furniture upholsterers Glass installers Heavy equipment operators Inspectors Jewelers and silversmiths Lens grinders Locomotive engineers Locomotive engineer helpers Log inspectors, graders, and sclaers Logging tractor operators Lumber graders Machine setters, paper goods Machine setters, plastic materials Machine setters, woodworking Merchandise displayers and window trimmers Millers Motion picture projectionists Opticians Oil pumpers Patternmakers, wood Patternmakers, n.e.c. Power station operators Pumpers, head Pumping station operators, waterworks Sewage plant operators Shipfitters Ship engineers Meat cutters and butchers Boners, meat Boners, poultry Butchers, all-round Carcass splitters Fish cleaners, hand and butchers, fish Metalworking operatives Dip platers, nonelectrolytic Drill press and boring machine operators Electroplators Furnace chargers Furnace operators, cupola tenders Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal Heaters, metal Lathe machine operators, metal Machine-tool operators, combination Machine-tool operators, numerical control Machine-tool operators, toolroom Milling and planing machine operators Metalworking operatives Pourers, metal Power brake and bending machine operators, metal Punch press operators, metal Welders and flamecutters All other metalworking operatives Other crafts and related workers Stationary engineers Stonecutters and stone carvers Tailors T esters Upholsterers Upholstery cutters Upholstery workers, n.e.c. Veneer graders Watchmakers Water treatment plant operators All other crafts and related workers Mine operatives, n.e.c. Continuous mining machine operators Derrick operators, petroleum and gas Gagers Loading machine operators Mill and grinder operators, minerals 99 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model—Continued Occupation title Occupation title Mine operatives, n.e.c.— Continued Roof bolters Roustabouts Service unit operators, oil well Shuttle car operators Well pullers All other mine operatives, n.e.c. Textile operatives Parking attendants Railroad brake operators Rental car delivery workers Sailors and deckhands Streetcar operators Taxi drivers Truckdrivers Transport equipment operatives, Packing and inspecting operatives Baggers f Bundlers Cloth graders Graders, food and skins Production packagers Selectors, glassware All other packing and inspecting operatives All other operatives Batch plant operators Blasters Boring machine operators, wood Coil finishers Cutters, machine Cutters, portable machine Cutter-finisher operators, rubber goods Cutting maching operators, food Die cutters and' clicking machine operators Dressmakers, except factory Drillers, hand and machine Dyers Exterminators Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers Floor sanding machine operators Fuel pump attendants and lubricators Furnace operators and tenders, except metal Kiln operators, minerals Stationary boiler firers All other furnace operators and tenders, except metal Furniture assemblers and installers Lathe operators, except metal Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food Miscellaneous machine operatives, tobacco Miscellaneous machine operatives, iumber and furniture Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals Miscellaneous machine operatives, petroleum and coal Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and plastics Miscellaneous machine operatives, leather Miscellaneous machine operatives, stone, clay, glass Painters, manufactured articles Painters, automotive Decorators, hand Rubbers Painters, production Sawyers Cut-off-saw operators, lumber Edgers, automatic and pony Head sawyers Ripsaw operators Sawyers, metal Trim-saw operators Ail other sawyers Sewers and stitchers Garment repairers Menders Sewing machine operators, equipment, garment Sewing machine operators, equipment, garment Sewing machine operators, equipment, nongarment Sewing machine operators, equipment,nongarment regular special regular special Textile operatives Battery loaders Beam warper tenders and beamers Boarding machine operators, hosiery Card tenders and comber tenders Cloth feeders and back tenders Cloth finishing range operators and tenders Creelers, yarn Doffers Drawing frame and gill box tenders Folders, hand Folding machine operators Knitting machine operators Seamless hosiery knitters Slubber tenders Spinners, frame Spooler operators, automatic Texturizers and crimp setters Turners Twister tenders Weavers Winder operators, automatic Yarn winders All other textile operatives Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary metals Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, n.e.c. Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing Miscellaneous operatives, n.e.c., durable goods Miscellaneous operatives, n.e.c., nondurable goods Mixing operatives Nailing machine operators Oilers Photographic process workers Power screwdriver operators Punch and stamping press operators, except metal Riveters Rotary drill operators Rotary drill operator helpers Transport equipment operatives Ambulance drivers and ambulance attendants Bus drivers Chauffeurs Delivery and route workers Industrial truck operators Log handling equipment operators 100 Appendix G. Occupations included in the industry-occupational model—Continued Occupation title Occupation title All other operatives— Continued Sandblasters and shotblasters Sanders, wood Shaper and rubber operators Shear and slitter operators, metal Shoemaking machine operators Surveyor helpers Termite treaters and helpers Tire changers and repairers Winding operatives, n.e.c. Coil winders Paper reel and rewinder operators Winders, paper machine All other winding operatives, n.e.c. Wirers, electronic Wood machinists Operatives, n.e.c. Service workers Food service workers Bakers, bread and pastry Bartenders Butchers and meat cutters Cooks, except private households Cooks, institutional Cooks, restaurant Cooks, short order and specialty fast foods Food service workers, fast food restaurants Hosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop Kitchen helpers Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers Waiters and waitresses Waiters assistants All other food service workers Janitors and sextons Selected health service workers Dental assistants Health aides, except nursing Medical assistants Nurses aides and orderlies Psychiatric aides Selected personal service workers Barbers Baggage handlers and porters Bellhops, bag porters, and doorkeepers Checkroom and locker room attendants Child care attendants Child care workers Cosmetologists and women” s hairstylists Elevator operators Flight attendants Funeral attendants Game and ride operators and concession workers Guides, sightseeing and establishment Housekeepers, hotel and motel Manicurists Masseurs and masseuses Pin chasers Recreation facility attendants Reducing instructors Scalp treatment operators School monitors Shampooers Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers Welfare service aides Personal service workers, n.e.c. Selected personal service workers— Continued Protective service workers Bailiffs Checkers, fitting room Correction officials and jailers Crossing or bridge tenders Crossing guards, school Firefighters Fire inspectors Fire officers Fish and game wardens Guards and doorkeepers Lifeguards Parking enforcement officers Police detective Police officers Police patrolmen/women Sheriffs Store detectives All other protective service workers Private household workers Child care workers, private household Cooks, private household Housekeepers, private household Laundresses, private household. Maids and servants, private household Supervisors, nonworking, service All other service workers Laborers, except farm Animal caretakers Construction laborers, except carpenter helpers Asphalt rakers Fence erectors Pipelayers Reinforcing-iron workers All other construction laborers Cannery workers Chain offbearers, lumber Cleaners, vehicle Conveyor operators and tenders Forest conservation workers Furnace operators and heater helpers Garbage collectors Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm Helper, trades Line service attendants Loaders, cars and trucks Loaders, tank cars and trucks Off-bearers Riggers Septic tank servicers Setters and drawers Shakeout workers, foundry Stock handlers Order fillers Stock clerk, sales floor Timber cutting and logging workers Choker setters, lumber Fallers and buckers All other timber cutting and logging workers Work distributors All other laborers, except farm Farmers and farm workers Farmers and farm managers Farmers (owners and tenants) Farm managers Farm supervisors and laborers Farm supervisors Farm laborers 101 %p©ncfe H. Industries included In the 3ndustry-0eeupatI@naS Model 102 Appendix H„ industries included in the Industry-Occupational Model Industry title Industry title Durable goods manufacturing, total — Continued Partitions and fixtures Miscellaneous furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products, total Flat glass Glass and glassware, pressed or blown Products of purchased glass Cement, hydraulic Structural clay products Pottery and related products Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products Cut stone and stone products Miscellaneous nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal industries, total Blast furnaces and basic steel products Iron and steel foundries Primary nonferrous metals Secondary nonferrous metals Nonferrous rolling and drawing Nonferrous foundries Miscellaneous primary metal products Fabricated metal products, total Metal cans Cutlery, handtools, and hardware Plumbing and heating, except electrical Fabricated structural metal products Screw machine products, bolts, nuts Metal stampings Metal services, n.e.c. Ordnance and accessories, n.e.c. Miscellaneous fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical, total Engines and turbines Farm and garden machinery Construction and related machinery Metalworking machinery Special industry machinery General industrial machinery Office, computing machinery Refrigeration and service machinery Miscellaneous machinery, except electrical Electric machinery, equipment, and supplies, total Electric distributing equipment Electrical industrial apparatus Household appliances Electric lighting and wiring equipment Radio and TV receiving equipment Communication equipment Electronic components and accessories Miscellaneous electrical equipment and supplies Transportation equipment, total Motor vehicles and equipment Aircraft and parts Ship and boat building and repairing Railroad equipment Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts Guided missiles, space vehicles Miscellaneous transportation equipment Total, all industries Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, total Agricultural production, crops Agricultural production, livestock Agricultural services Forestry Fishing, hunting, and trapping Mining, total Metal mining, total Iron ores Copper ores Lead and zinc ores Gold and silver ores Bauxite and other aluminum ores Ferroalloy ores, except vanadium Metal mining services Miscellaneous metal ores Anthracite mining, total Bituminous coal and lignite mining, total Crude petroleum and natural gas, total Crude petroleum and natural gas Natural gas liquids Oil and gas field services Nonmetallic mining and quarrying, total Dimension stone Crushed and broken stone Sand and gravel Clay and related minerals Chemical and fertilizer minerals Nonmetallic minerals services Miscellaneous nonmetallic minerals Construction, total General building contractors, total Residential building construction Operative building Nonresidential building construction General contractors, except building, total Highway and street construction Heavy construction, except highway Special trade contractors, total Plumbing, heating, air-conditioning Painting, paper hanging, and decorating Electrical work Masonry, stonework, and plaster Carpentering and flooring Roofing and sheet metal work Concrete work Water well drilling Miscellaneous special trade contractors Manufacturing, total Durable goods manufacturing, total Lumber and wood products, total Logging camps and logging contractors Sawmills and planing mills Millwork, plywood, and structural members Wooden containers Wood building and mobile homes Miscellaneous wood products Furniture and fixtures, total Household furniture Office furniture Public building and related furniture 103 Appendix H. Industries included in the Industry-Occupational Model—Continued Industry title Industry title Durable goods manufacturing, total —Continued Professional, scientific instruments, total Engineering and scientific instruments Mechanical measuring and controlling Optical instruments and lenses Medical instruments and supplies Ophthalmic goods Photographic equipment and supplies Watches, clocks, and watchcases Miscellaneous manufacturing industries, total Jewelry, silverware, an plated ware Musical instruments Toys and sporting goods Pens, pencils, and office and art supplies Costume jewelry and notions Miscellaneous manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing, total Food and kindred products, total Meat products Dairy products Preserved fruits and vegetables Grain mill products Bakery products Sugar and confectionery products Fats and oils Beverages Miscellaneous foods and kindred products Tobacco manufacturing, total Cigarettes Cigars Tobacco (chewing and smoking) Tobacco steaming and redrying Textile mill products, total Weaving mills, cotton Weaving mills, synthetic fibers Weaving and finishing mills, wool Narrow fabrics mills Knitting mills Textile finishing, except wool Floor covering mills Yarn and thread mills Miscellaneous textile goods Apparel and textile products, total Men’s and boys’ suits and coats Men’s and boys’ furnishings Women’s and misses’ outerwear W omen’s and children’s undergarments Hats, caps, and millinery Children” s outerwear Fur goods Miscellaneous apparel and accessories Miscellaneous fabricated textile products Paper and allied products, total Pulp mills Paper mills, except building paper Paperboard mills Miscellaneous converted paper . products Paperboard containers and boxes Building paper and board mills Printing and publishing industries, total Newspapers Periodicals Nondurable goods manufacturing, total— Continued Books Miscellaneous publishing Commercial printing Manifold business forms Greeting card publishing Blankbooks and bookbinding Printing trade services Chemicals and allied products, total Industrial inogranic chemicals Plastics materials and synthetics Drugs Soaps, cleaners, and toilet goods Paints and allied products Industrial organic chemicals Agricultural chemicals Petroleum and coal products, total Petroleum refining Paving and roofing materials Miscellaneous petroleum and coal products Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products, total Tires and inner tubes Rubber and plastics footwear Reclaimed rubber Rubber and plastics hose and belting Fabricated rubber products, n.e.c. Miscellaneous plastics products Leather and leather products, total Leather tanning and finishing Boot and shoe cut stock and findings Footwear, except rubber Leather gloves and mittens Luggage Handbags and personal leather goods Leather goods, n.e.c. ' Transportation, communications, and utilities Transportation, total Railroad transportation, total Local and interurban transit, total Local and suburban transportation Taxicabs Intercity highway transportation Transportation charter service School buses Bus terminal and service facilities Trucking and warehousing, total Trucking, local and long distance Public warehousing Trucking terminal facilities U.S. postal service Water transportation, total Deep sea foreign transportation Deep sea domestic transportation Great Lakes transportation Transportation on rivers and canals Local water transportation Water transportation services Air transportation, total Certificated air transportation Noncertificated air transportation Air transportation services Pipelines, except natural gas, total Transportation services, total Freight forwarding Arrangement of transportation 104 Appendix H. Industries included in the Industry-Occupational Model—Continued Industry title Industry title Retail trade, total— Continued Automobiles and recreational vehicles, total Motor vehicle dealers (new and used) Motor vehicle dealers (used only) Auto and home supply stores Gasoline service stations Boat dealers Recreational and utility trailer dealers Motorcycle dealers Automotive dealers, n.e.c. Apparel and accessories stores, total Men’s and boys’ clothing and furnishings W omen’s and misses’ ready-to-wear stores W omen’s and misses’ accessory and specialty stores Children’s and infants' wear stores Transportation, communications, and utilities— Continued Rental of railroad cars Miscellaneous transportation services Communications and utilities, total Communications, total Telephone communication Telegraph communication Radio and television broadcasting Communication services, n.e.c. Utilities and sanitary services, total Electric companies and systems Gas companies and systems Combination companies and systems Water supply Sanitary services Steam supply Irrigation systems Wholesale and retail trade, total Wholesale trade, durable goods, total Motor vehicle and auto parts and supplies Furniture and home furnishings Lumber and other construction materials Sporting, toy, photographic, and hobby goods Metals and minerals, except petroleum Electrical goods Hardware, plumbing, and heating supplies Machinery, equipment, and supplies Miscellaneous durable goods Wholesale trade, nondurable goods, total Paper and paper products Drugs, proprietaries, and sundries Apparel, piece goods, and notions Groceries and related products Farm-product raw materials Chemical and allied products Petroleum and petroleum products Beer, wine, and distilled alcholic beverages Miscellaneous nondurable goods Retail trade, total Building materials, garden supplies, mobile homes, total Lumber and other building materials dealers Paint, glass, and wallpaper stores Hardware stores Retail nurseries, lawn and garden supplies Mobile home dealers Retail trade, general merchandise, total Department stores Variety stores Miscellaneous general merchandise stores Food stores, total Grocery stores Meat and fish (seafood) markets Fruit stores and vegetable markets Candy, nut, and confectionery stores Dairy products stores Retail bakeries Miscellaneous food stores Family clothing stores Shoe stores Furriers and fur shops Miscellaneous apparel and accessories Furniture and home furnishings stores, total Furniture and home furnishing, except appliances Household appliance stores Radio, television, and music stores Eating and drinking places, total Miscellaneous retail stores, total Drug stores and proprietary stores Liquor stores Used merchandise stores Miscellaneous shopping goods stores Nonstore retailers Fuel and ice dealers Retail stores, n.e.c. Finance, insurance, and real estate, total Banking, total Federal Reserve Banks Commercial and stock savings banks Mutual savings banks Trust companies, nondeposit Functions closely related to banking Credit agencies other than banks, total Rediscount and financing institutions Savings and loan associations Agricultural credit institutions Personal credit Business credit institutions Mortgage bankers and brokers Security and commodity brokers, dealers, total Security brokers and dealers Commodity contracts brokers and dealers Security and commodity exchanges Security and commodity services Insurance carriers, total Life insurance Medical service and health insurance Fire, marine, and casualty insurance Surety insurance 105 Appendix H. Industries included in the Industry-Occupational Eltodel—Continusd Industry title Finance, insurance, and real estate, total— Continued Title insurance Pension, health, and welfare funds .Insurance carriers, n.e.c. Insurance agents, brokers, and services, total Real estate, total Real estate operators and lessors Real estate agents and managers Title abstract offices Subdividers and developers Combined real estate, insurance, loan, and law offices Holding and other investment offices, total Holding offices Investment offices Trusts Miscellaneous investing Services,total Hotels and other lodging places, total Hotels, motels, and tourist courts Rooming and boarding houses Camps and trailering parks Organization hotels and lodging houses Personal services, total Laundry, cleaning, and garment services Photographic studios, portrait Beauty shops Barber shops Shoe repair, shoe shine, and hat cleaning shops Funeral service and crematories Miscellaneous personal services Miscellaneous business services, total Advertising Consumer credit reporting and collection Mailing, reproduction, commercial art, and stenography Services to dwelling and other buildings News syndicates Personal supply services Computer and data processing services Miscellaneous business services Automobile repair, services, and garages, total Automobile rentals, leasing, without drivers Automobile parking Automobile repair shops Automobile services, except repair Miscellaneous repair services, total Electrical repair shops Watch, clock, and jewelry repair Reupholstery and furniture repair Miscellaneous repair shops and related services Motion pictures, total Industry title Services,total— Continued Motion picture production and services Motion picture distribution and services Motion picture theaters Amusement and recreation, except motion pictures, total Dance halls, studios, and schools Theatrical producers, bands, and entertainers Bowling alleys and billard and pool establishments Commercial sports Miscellaneous amusement and recreation services Health services, total ' Offices of physicians Offices of dentists Offices of osteopathic physicians Offices of other health practitioners Nursing and personal care facilities Hospitals Medical and dental laboratories Outpatient care facilities Health and allied services, n.e.c. Legal services, total Educational services, total Social services, total Individual and family social services Job training and vocational rehabilitation services Child day care services Residential care Social services, n.e.c. Museums, art gallaries, and zoos, total Museums and art gallaries Arboreta, botanical, zoological gardens Membership organizations, total Business associations Professional membership organizations Labor unions and fraternal associations Political organizations Religious organizations Membership organizations, n.e.c. Private households, total Miscellaneous services, total Engineering, architectural, and surveying services Noncommercial educational and research organizations Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services Services, n.e.c. Government, total Federal Government State government, except education and hospitals Local government, except education and hospitals 106 Appendix 1= Data Sources Source documen s, for the most part, are continuing publication, and all issues have been examined. Labor fore© projections Current Population Reports, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statis tics, U.S. Department of Labor. Siasroeconosnsc projections Aggregate Labor Force Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Business Conditions Digest, Bureau of Economic Anal ysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Current Population Reports, Bureau of the Census. Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Farm Income Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Ec onomic Analysis. Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Resources. Statistical Abstract of the United States, Bureau of the Census. Statistics of Income Report, Internal Revenue Code, In ternal Revenue Service, U.S. Department of the Treasury. Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Final demand projections Capital Stocks Data Base, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Census of Governments, Bureau of the Census. Census of Manufactures, 1967 and 1972, Bureau of the Census. Construction Review, Industry and Trade Administra tion, U.S. Department of Commerce. Current Population Reports, Bureau of the Census. Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy, 1958; 1963; 1967; and 1972, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Interindustry Transactions in New Structures and Equipment, 1963 and 1967, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Military Prime Contract Awards by Federal Supply Classification, OASD-Comptroller, U.S. Department of Defense. 107 Monthly Status o f Funds, OASD-Comptroller, U.S. Department of Defence. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Ec onomic Analysis. Public Employment, Bureau of the Census. Shipments o f Defense Oriented Industries, MA-175, Bureau of the Census. Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Budget Appendix, 1963-78, Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the President. U.S. Exports by 8-Digit SIC FT610, Bureau of the Census. U.S. Exports, Commodity Schedule FT410, Bureau of the Census. U.S. Exports by 2-, 3-, and 4-Digit SIC EA675, un/ published data, Bureau of the Census. U.S. Imports TSUSA, Commodity by Country, FT246, Bureau of the Census. U.S. Imports for Consumption and General Imports, IA275, Bureau of the Census. Intermediate demand projections Annual Survey o f Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. Census of Business, Bureau of the Census. Census o f Manufactures, 1963 and 1967, Bureau of the Census. Current Industrial Reports, Bureau of the Census. Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy, 1958; 1963; and 1967, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Minerals Yearbook, Bureau of Mines, U.S. Depart ment of Interior. Statistical Abstract of the United States, Bureau of the Census. Industry output and employment Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Annual Survey of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. Best's Aggregates and Averages, A. M. Best Co. Business Income Tax Receipts, Internal Revenue Serv ice. Census of Manufactures, Bureau of the Census. Compendium of National Health Expenditures, U.S. Department of Health and Human Resources. Construction Reports, Bureau of the Census. County Business Patterns, Bureau of the Census. Statistics o f Privately-Owned Electric Utilities, U.S. Federal Power Commission. Statistics o f Publicly-Owned Electric Uilities, U.S. Fed eral Power Commission. The Franchised New Car and Truck Dealer Story, Na tional Automobile Dealers Association. Transport Statistics in the U.S., U.S. Interstate Com merce Commission. Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Farm Income Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Gas Facts, American Gas Association. Governmental Finances, Bureau of the Census. Highway Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation. Hospital Statistics, American Hospital Association. Minerals Yearbook, Bureau of Mines. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Ec onomic Analysis. Office of Productivity and Technology Data Base, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Statistical Abstract of the United States, Bureau of the Census. Statistics of Communications, *Common Carriers, U.S. Federal Communications Commission. Occupational employment projections Current Population Survey, Bureau of the Census. Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics. ■& U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1982 108 0 -5 2 2 -0 3 2 (6 3 4 2 ) Employment 123 u U □ P 8* Employmsint sndi Earnings monthly periodical □ SmpS©ym©oit and Earnings, United State®, 1S0D-7S .. Bulletin 1312-11 historical databook n Pri mary sources of Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Comprehensive labor force and establishment data. National, State, and area figures on employment, unemployment, hours, earnings, and labor turnover. One-year subscription includes annual Supplement to Employment and Earnings, Revised Establishment Data (shown below). Monthly and annual data by industry, from beginning date of each series through 1978. GPO Stock No. 029-001-02320-1 supscription $31.00 single copy $3.75 single copy $14.00 953 pages. □ . Suppteimismt 4© Data for 1977-81 unadjusted. Data for 1974-81 seasonally adjusted. Employment and Earning®, Revised Establishment __ . ! Data single copy $4.75 388 pages. August 1981 □ 1 Bmi (9 1 1 0 0 I 0 I jMl iBP Supplement t@ Employment and Earning®, State© and'Areas, Oats for 1977-80 ' Data for 1977-79 (revised) and 1980. GPO Stock No. 029-001-02628-5 single copy $8.00 284 pages. Bulletin 1370-15 Tote! ®rd®r$ Where to send order You may send your order directly to: Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 How 4© pay P □ □ □ The following BLS regional offices will expedite all other orders. For ordering information call (202) 783-3238. 1603 JFK Building Boston, Mass. 02203 Subscriptions must be sent directly to .Superintendent of Documents. Suite 3400 1515 Broadway New York, N.Y. 10036 2nd Floor 555 Griffin Square Bldg. Dallas, Tex. 75202 1371 Peachtree St., NE. Atlanta, Ga. 30367 911 Walnut Street Kansas City, Mo. 64106 9th Floor Federal Office Building 230 South Dearborn St. Chicago, III. 60604 450 Golden Gate Ave. Box 36017 San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Enclosed is check or money order payable to Superintendent of Documents. Charge to my GPO account no. j___________________________________ Charge to MasterCard,* Charge to VISA, * Account no. ;________________________ Expiration date Account no. _________________________ (Expi ration date Available oqly on orders sent directly to Superintendent of Documents. Name Organization (if applicable) Street address City, State, ZIP Code P.O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Offices Region S 1603 JFK Federal Building Government Center Boston, Mass. 02203 Phone: (617) 223-6761 Region II ■ Suite 3400 1515 Broadway New York, N.Y. 10036 Phone: (212) 944-3121 Region IV 1371 Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, Ga. 30367 Phone: (404) 881-4418 Region ¥ 9th Floor Federal Office Building 230 S. Dearborn Street Chicago, III. 60604 Phone: (312) 353-1880 Region Iff 3535 Market Street P.O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Phone: (215) 596-1154 Region VS Second Floor 555 Griffin Square Building Dallas, Tex. 75202 Phone: (214) 767-6S71 Regions VII and ¥SSi 911 Walnut Street Kansas City, Mo. 64106 Phone: (816) 374-2481 Regions IX and X 450 Golden Gate Avenue Box 36017 San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Phone: (415) 556-4678