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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1996 Annual Report The Economy at Light Speed Technology and Growth in the Information Age —And Beyond | TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S A Letter from the President . . . . . . . .1 The Economy at Light Speed: Technology and Growth in the Information Age —And Beyond . . . . . .2 The Year in Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Corporate Executives and Senior Management . . . . . . . . .21 Boards of Directors . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Advisory Councils and Officers . . . . .24 Selected Financial Information • Statement of Condition . . . . . . . . . .25 • Statement of Income . . . . . . . . . . . .26 • Statement of Changes in Capital . .27 Volume of Operations . . . . . . . . . . . .28 A LETTER FROM THE |1 PRESIDENT The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas today. Our rationale for exploring the has projected optimism in our recent possibilities here is to counter the pes- annual report essays—optimism that simism generated by current growth and the creative destruction of jobs renews productivity statistics, which seem and reinvigorates our economy (“The increasingly inadequate for our third- Churn: The Paradox of Progress,” 1992); wave service and information economy. ❧ optimism that our living standards are continuing to rise, as shown by the way 1996 was a good year for the Federal we live our lives (“These Are the Good Reserve Bank of Dallas. Our banking for me the prototypical gentleman Old Days,” 1993); optimism that our system remained sound, our regional Texas farmer. Peyton Yates left the evolution toward a service economy is economy continued to outpace the Dallas Board in April 1996 and was not a bad thing (“The Service Sector: national average, and we fully recov- replaced by Bob McNair, who had been Give It Some Respect,” 1994); and opti- ered the cost of the services we pro- serving on our Houston Board. We will mism that our dynamic economy still vided to our customers. Productivity miss J. B. and Peyton. We will also miss offers plenty of opportunity for individ- improved as we continued to provide Erich Wendl, who retired from our San uals to move up (“By Our Own Boot- more services with fewer employees. Antonio Board; Walter Johnson, who straps,” 1995). In short, we have chosen Our public programs and educational retired from our Houston Board; and to see the glass half full rather than half activities were well received by larger Veronica Callaghan and Ben Haines, empty. We have confidence in the audiences. We expect more of the who retired from our El Paso Board. All power of our free enterprise economy to same in 1997. have made valuable contributions. produce rising living standards. ❧ Internally, the most significant This year, we may be going too far, At the end of 1996, Cece Smith com- management changes in 1996 were the projecting our optimism well into the pleted three years as chairman of the retirement of Tony Salvaggio on April future. As a former economist, I’ve Board of Directors of the Federal 1 after almost 40 years of distinguished learned that forecasting is not too haz- Reserve Bank of Dallas and turned the service, and the appointment of ardous, as long as it isn’t about the chairmanship over to Roger Hemming- Helen Holcomb as our new first vice future. I’ve also learned that optimists haus, who had been serving as deputy president. have a better track record than pes- chairman. During 1997, Cece will Innovation and change are inherent simists. Besides, by 2020, I’ll be retired serve the last of her six years on the components of our free enterprise and so, probably, will the authors of Board as deputy chairman. I appreci- economy and, I believe, of our great this and the other essays cited above, ate the valuable contribution Cece has strength. Therefore, our optimism Mike Cox and Richard Alm. made as chairman. She’s a great boss. continues both for our world and for Their hook in this essay, and the 1996 also saw the retirement of reason you may want to take it more Dallas Fed Director J. B. Cooper, after seriously than a science fiction comic six years of service on the Board and our economy. book, is that their high-tech world of after previously serving on our Advi- 2020 is based on applications and sory Council on Small Business and Robert D. McTeer, Jr. refinements of technology that exists Agriculture. J. B. will always remain President and Chief Executive Officer 2 The Economy at Light Speed Technology and Growth in the Information Age —And Beyond Fast-forward to life in the year 2020. Though it’s an overcast winter morning, Steve and Kim Jones wake to a sunrise of sea gulls and warm salt-air breezes, all synthesized by their Sensual, Audio and Visual Virtual Information and IMAGE BANK Entertainment system. by W. MICHAEL COX and RICHARD ALM Imagination is more important than knowledge. —Albert Einstein T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D A fixture in most middle-class homes, alized to reflect their interests. After a SAVVIE regulates the indoor environ- report on China’s efforts to clean up ment and operates 50-odd computer- the environment, Kim wants an update controlled appliances, among them the on the Chinese and American Mars Joneses’ bed. All night it reads body colony. Steve requests an interview shapes, weight, temperature and posi- with Cowboys head coach Troy Aikman, tions, adjusting to ensure the couple’s preparing for Super Bowl LIV. Business complete comfort. The bed gathers data news starts with the latest on around- on each snoozer’s heart rate, oxygen the-clock stock trading, showing the intake, bone density, neurological activi- Dow Jones industrial average surging With gears the width of a human hair, this ties and other vital signs, all of it logged past 31,000.1 micromachine component includes a linear into a memory bank that compiles a daily health report. | Tiny robots scrub the dishes and run rack, rack guides, a drive gear and drive a whisper-quiet vacuum cleaner as linkage to convert rotational motion into After showering and dressing, Steve Steve remarks to Kim, “TGIT”—Thank linear motion. Photo copyright Sandia says, “Breakfast, Max.” He’s speaking to God it’s Thursday. Like most Americans National Laboratories. the family’s intelligent agent, Maxwell, a in 2020, Steve works from 9 a.m. to 4 book-sized computer that commands p.m., Mondays through Thursdays. ularly engineered composites that are the SAVVIE appliances, maintains the Steve has Max make reservations at the stronger than steel, lighter than plastic home’s environment and handles the local sports cybercade, a virtual reality and cheaper than either. Most days, family’s shopping via the Internet. Max club that simulates hang-gliding, skiing Steve works from home or his vacation comes with its own personality. On and other outdoor adventures. Having cabin, when necessary using his telecon- hearing its name, Max activates the fallen three times, Steve is resolved ferencing port to hold virtual meetings. floor-to-ceiling video wall in any room to complete his conquest of Mount Sensors follow Steve’s eyes, changing and answers in the charming Scottish McKinley. After reviewing Steve’s daily the image on the video wall to match his accent chosen by the Joneses, “Good health report, Max says, “Along with slightest shift in focus. With a word to morning, sir. What would you be having your usual vitamins, I’m recommending Max, Steve can consult with colleagues for breakfast today?” a wee extra bit of molybdenum to build in Thailand and Argentina while working stamina for tomorrow’s climb.” with a customer in Egypt. Language Steve orders bacon and eggs without a twinge of guilt. In 2020, most foods Steve works for International Micro- have been genetically engineered to tools Inc., a consortium that makes maintain taste and texture but provide machines small enough to maneuver After kissing Steve good-bye, Kim, a optimal nutrition with less fat and choles- inside the human heart. He designs them doctor, leaves for work in her nonpol- terol. As Steve and Kim eat, they ask on a three-dimensional computer screen, luting vehicle powered by superconduc- Max for the morning newscast, person- tailoring each tool to the customer’s tive batteries that require recharging just exact specifications. With a single key- once a month. There’s no need for a stroke, he sends his designs to facto- key: the car identifies her by voice and ries, where durable-product generators smell. Kim speaks only a simple com- fabricate the tiny machines from molec- mand, “Max, the office, please,” and 1 This number is not pulled from thin air. The Dow ended 1996 at 6,448, and matching the long-term growth of 7 percent a year would put the index above 31,000 in 2020. processors translate Steve’s English into Thai, Spanish and Arabic. 3 4 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D Nanotechnology researchers are growing carbon nanotubes from which they someday hope to build ultrathin metallic electrical conductors. By polymerizing carbon into a continuous, perfect graphene tube with metal atoms sealed inside, researchers make nanowires that have the potential to be as conductive as copper and 100 times stronger than steel. Photo copyright Rice University Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology. the car responds. Steering, acceleration and virtual reality provide indelible learn- and braking are self-controlled, with ing experiences — the sights, sounds continuous feedback from the Coordi- and feel of rocketing through Saturn’s nated Travel Network linked to naviga- rings, a touch-of-a-button tour of the tional satellites that pinpoint a car’s posi- Louvre. After school, Jane designs a tion anywhere on the planet. Computers new outfit, using 3-D scanners to per- and sensors in cars and roadbeds pre- fect the fit and laser-guided machines to vent collisions. As she travels to the sew it. Ben and his pals play baseball on office without fear of accident or break- a holographic field that offers the real- down, Kim catches up on her work by ism of the Texas Rangers’ ballpark. accessing the American Medical Associ- That evening, Steve and Kim meet ation’s Internet site on the vehicle’s the Mings and the Huxtables at the video display. Eclectic Rouge, a restaurant that offers The emphasis of medicine in 2020 is a choice of ambiance as well as entree. on preventing disease and managing It’s Kim’s birthday, so she chooses a the aging process. With new vaccines Parisian sidewalk cafe for appetizers and treatments, cavities, baldness, and the main course, then fireside at a arthritis, hearing loss and the common Colorado ski resort for coffee and cold rarely afflict Kim’s patients. She dessert. After dinner, the three couples analyzes patients’ DNA to assess the head to the Jones home, where satellite risk of illnesses before they occur. linkups and fiber optic cables deliver a Where necessary, DNA therapy allows world of entertainment— everything her to implant healthy genes for those from Las Vegas shows to symphony producing Alzheimer’s disease, multi- concerts and action movies. Thanks to ple sclerosis and heart ailments. Kim the latest holographic device, viewers prescribes drugs that have slowed can walk inside the film and even talk aging and stopped cancers, and she can with the characters. After a final cham- order cloned blood, skin, bones, organs pagne toast, the Joneses’ guests hop and the latest biotech breakthrough. into their self-driving cars for a safe trip The Jones children—Jane, a teen- home, and Steve and Kim retire for the ager, and Ben, age 10—attend neighbor- evening, bidding Max to put out the hood schools, where teleconferencing dog, lock up and turn off the lights. T his vision of 2020 may sound farfetched— a pipe dream, worlds away from today. After all, the rapid progress implied by the Joneses’ lifestyle runs counter to well-publicized reports of an American economy whose growth rate has slipped. Pessimists, citing statistics on weakening productivity and gross domestic product growth, contend that the economy isn’t strong enough to keep hoisting Americans upward. They offer a dour view: the generation coming of age today will be the first in American history not to live better than its parents. One simple fact, however, suggests that this view will be proven wrong— and spectacularly so: nothing conjured up in this vision of 2020 requires any new technologies. Every device in the Joneses’ lives uses 1997 science and technology, honed by a competitive economy into the next generation of T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | With a little help from the Jason V Primary Interactive Network and live satellite broadcasts, schoolchildren in Massachusetts explore coral reefs off the coast of Belize by guiding underwater cameras mounted on a remotely operated vehicle. Research scientists answer students’ questions, demonstrate on-site research techniques and even quiz students on their observations. Technology and Capitalism — Partners in Progress Few Americans would deny today’s technology explosion. Even in this era of supercomputers, space travel and cloning, though, technology isn’t always seen as a boon. Amid the modern world’s hustle and bustle, nostalgia for the simpler ways of goods and services.2 With a mother greater variety, more time off, better times past is not uncommon. Techno- lode of technologies ready to shape the working conditions, more enjoyable phobes cringe at programming the next quarter century, there’s reason to jobs and other benefits. All of these VCR or installing new peripherals on believe that progress will be faster than raise our living standards but by their the PC. Apocalyptic literature, science ever —a stunning display of capital- nature aren’t easily measured. Most fiction ism’s ability to lift living standards. aren’t even counted in GDP. rhetoric portray technology as a dark, movies and neo-Luddite Ironically, though, our economic What the next quarter century of statistics may miss the show. The capitalism likely promises, then, is That is the technology of myth. The usual measures of progress—output a silent boom—a rapid economic technology of reality is a vital part of and productivity—lose touch in an age advance that will improve everyday what spurs economic progress and of rapid technological advances. As the life but elude the regular readings of raises living standards. Stone Age economy evolves, it delivers not only the economy’s vital signs. Statistical “high-tech” was knowing how to strike more production but also new goods tools simply can’t keep up with an flint on rock to produce a spark and and services, improved products, economy moving at light speed. ignite a fire. But even at that basic 3 dehumanizing force. level, technology improved the lives of 2 Americans will doubtlessly enjoy the fruits of even further advances in technology over the next 25 years. To suppose otherwise would be to exhibit the shortsightedness of Charles H. Duell, commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, who in 1899 said, “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” 3 The discrepancy applies to the past quarter century as well as to the future. The Dallas Fed’s 1993 annual report essay, “These Are the Good Old Days,” presented overwhelming evidence that the average American has a lot more than ever before. Yet the national accounts report only slow growth over the previous two decades. In their article “1974,” Greenwood and Yorukoglu (forthcoming) explain how the measured productivity slowdown over the past two decades may have been related to the rapid technological advances associated with the computer. those who used it. They kept warmer at night, ate hot food and slept more soundly, worrying less about attacks by saber-toothed tigers and marauding tribes. Fast-forward through the millennia, and it’s the same story. Today’s technology is much more complex, but it still makes those who use it bet- 5 6 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D Blending electronics with biology, neuroscience researchers have achieved long-term functional viability of cells treated with ions and implanted these cells into study animals. In the not-too-distant future, researchers hope to use the technology to treat neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s disease. ter off. We are warmed by gas and merger. In California’s gold rush era, electric furnaces, nourished by food meeting might have meant a boat trip heated in microwave ovens, and pro- around the tip of South America. As tected by locks, alarm systems and time went by, the bankers would have 911 operators. Technology leads to found the train faster, then the airplane new products and services that faster still. With the advent of telecon- improve our everyday lives. It must. ferencing, they can now convene in a After all, every innovation must pass matter of seconds, skipping the hassle the test of the marketplace: if people and expense of transcontinental don’t want it, they won’t buy it. flight. Sometime beyond 2020, virtual 4 But technological know-how doesn’t meetings and all modes of shipping just happen. Ideas are sterile until an may be made obsolete by a Star Trek- entrepreneur or a company transforms like “transporter” that zaps people and them into new goods and services or products from one place to another. better production methods. The process In a free enterprise system, there’s involves discerning consumer tastes, always competition from inventions researching, prototypes, and innovations that meet consumers’ obtaining financing, manufacturing, needs in a different way or make it helps us see what speeds it up or slows marketing and, often, starting all over cheaper and easier to manufacture it down. again. Blood, sweat and tears. Why go existing products. Most of us overlook Because technology in large part through it? this “minor” feature of a market-based drives growth, stepping up the pace of designing Profit. Capitalism gives incentives economy. When we catch a bargain on invention and innovation increases to innovate by bestowing profit on airfare, see our long-distance phone the speed of economic progress. As those who bring successful products rates plummet, get a good deal on a car with most economic activities, putting to market. Just as important, it readily and so on, we welcome the low prices technology to work has a lot to do with shifts money, people and other that result as today’s companies com- incentives. An economy will produce resources from producing yesterday’s pete for market share. But the existence technological change faster when the goods and services to what con- of airplanes, telephones, automobiles costs of doing so go down or the bene- sumers will buy today and tomorrow. and our other amenities we owe to fits go up. Several factors influence the Capitalism’s ability to unleash innova- another kind of rivalry that capitalism speed of the process: the breadth and tion and invention lies at the very promotes. It’s the competition from the depth of a society’s existing endow- heart of the great legacy of the Ameri- next generation of goods and services, ment of technology, the introduction can experience—economic progress. made possible by the relentless of inventions with wide-ranging uses, Successive generations of trans- impulse in human beings to make portation show how new products themselves better off by improving life come along to compete with existing for everyone else. ones. Suppose bankers in New York By its very nature, capitalism seeks and San Francisco want to enter into a progress. Understanding this fact 4 The list of patented inventions that didn’t quite make it illustrates the point. There wasn’t much of a market for the boomerang bullet, eyeglasses for chickens, coffins with escape hatches or fire escape suspenders. T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | flat-screen displays and the Internet— more slippery than glare ice, that all of which already exist, at least in virtually eliminate friction? Those prototype. Entrepreneurs could use the technologies, and many more, are same technologies to produce the sports already being readied for use in new cybercade, Steve’s virtual office, the generations of products. Researchers Joneses’ home entertainment amenities are working within the cells of living and the learning experiences offered by organisms. Biotechnology may lead to the schools Jane and Ben attend. treatments for diseases and the pro- the time it takes for products to spread The National Automated Highway duction of synthetic organs, but it is throughout society, and overall market Systems Consortium, led by General already making possible clothing that size. In assessing the possibilities of Motors Corp., is at work on a self- kills germs, bugs that gobble up toxic the future, it’s more useful to look at driving automobile. The Global Posi- waste, enzymes that soften blue jeans these forces —the dynamics of how tioning System already helps truckers, and cholesterol-eating peanuts with a technology soaks into society— than taxi drivers and farmers. Satellite- shelf life measured in years, not statistics that say more about where based navigational systems are an months. (See Exhibit A in foldout: “25 we’ve been than where we’re going. option on some 1997 car models. Technologies for the Next 25 Years.”) What’s already in place offers to Scientists at New Mexico’s Sandia America enters the 21st century quicken economic progress. National Laboratories already produce steeped in a culture of invention and Our inventory of technology is micromachines with gears the width of surfing a tsunami of technology. By large and growing. Despite the a human hair. The Human Genome one estimate, more than half the store rapid-fire introduction of new products Project to map the location and of human knowledge has been pro- in recent decades, we still have a large, sequence of 100,000 genes, expected duced over the past 50 years. In the relatively untapped stock of techno- to be finished by 2003, should allow United States, the number of scientists logy in the pipeline. The Joneses’ future doctors to detect and treat and engineers working in research and lifestyle in 2020 suggests applications diseases through DNA analysis.5 development has doubled since the for dozens of modern-day break- And the Joneses’ lifestyle only hints early 1970s. More than half of U.S. throughs. A “smart” bed, for example, at what’s to come from our laboratories, patents have been issued in the past 40 could churn out a daily medical report think tanks and entrepreneurs. The years. The number of new products using magnetic resonance imaging, a potential boggles the mind. Many of put on the market annually has tripled technology that helps doctors make the most promising projects involve since 1980, and with so much R & D medical diagnoses by showing the tinkering with the basic elements of life occurring, companies are likely to details of soft tissues the way X-rays and matter. In molecular engineering, keep offering innovative goods and reveal bones. The SAVVIE system, for example, scientists are creating services at a furious pace. including faithful, tireless Max, might whole new materials, forged atom by combine powerful microprocessors, atom, with astounding properties. 5 Even the Joneses’ three-day weekends draw on recent experience. The average workweek fell from 36.9 hours in 1973 to 34.5 hours in 1990. An equal percentage decline over the next 25 years would yield a 31.4-hour workweek in 2020. artificial intelligence, voice recognition, How about a fiber stronger than steel speech synthesis, holography, virtual yet more elastic than a spider’s web, or reality, fiber optics, high-definition TV, perhaps one-molecule-thick coatings, 7 8 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D If you think self-driving cars and preprogrammed destinations are far-fetched, think again. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology can already track objects anywhere on Earth via computerized receivers and satellites in space. Right now, GPS technology is being used in some rental cars to provide security and to tell drivers the most efficient route to their destinations. Taxis and commercial fleets are being dispatched and managed using GPS. Today’s inventions are providing big spillovers. The parachute is a very useful product, especially when an airplane’s engines conk out at 10,000 feet, but it hasn’t had the same impact on the way we live as the internal combustion engine, the telephone or the jet airplane. Every so often, an invention comes along that really rocks the world, largely because it has far-reaching applications and serves as a building block for further invention. The wheel, the plow, the printing press and the steam engine are examples of technologies that generated significant spillovers. Had elec- machines and automatic tellers to air this year, will ramp up to 1.6 billion.6 tricity not been harnessed for use more traffic the We may look back on the microproces- than a century ago, the modern house- dinosaurs of Jurassic Park. The micro- sor as an invention more pivotal than hold would have few of the conven- processor is adding “smart” features to the printing press. (See Exhibit C in iences we take for granted. No televi- many everyday products. Today’s cars, foldout: “Technology Spillovers.”) sions. No refrigerators. No phones. for example, have more computing In 1801, J. M. Jacquard devised a control systems and Simply put, some inventions carry power than the lunar landing module binary control system on punched more weight than others. (See Exhibit of the Apollo 11 mission that put cards to program a loom to weave a B in foldout: “Not All Inventions Are Americans on the moon. And even preset pattern. Thomas Edison’s light Created Equal.”) more applications are just over the bulb installing electric wiring in their In our time, it’s the microprocessor horizon, as time and imagination point —the tiny “brain” of the personal us to new ways to use microprocessors. computer —that’s producing spillovers Meanwhile, the computer chip is get- and spawning waves of new and ting even more powerful. At the start improved products. These little elec- of the 1990s, the fastest chips could tronic marvels make hundreds of other handle 94 million instructions per modern creations possible —from fax second. The next generation, due out gave people a reason for 6 Predicting just how far microprocessor speed could go by 2020 would be about as silly as saying, “Where…the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1½ tons”—Popular Mechanics, March 1949. T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | A computer at the Institute for Genomic Research in Gaithersburg, Maryland, connected to a DNA sequencer automatically produces an image of a section of DNA. Identifying the genetic code of humans at the rate of about 10,000 genes per month with the help of supercomputers, scientists expect that all the building blocks of life will soon be completely mapped. Other researchers are at work building a silicon computer chip with rows of DNA molecules and microelectronic circuitry that will analyze DNA 100 times faster than current methods. The implications for international human genetic research are phenomenal. Today, the PC is part of our tech- times faster by the end of this year. nology inventory, contributing to new Each invention makes the next one waves of invention. It would be easier because of the way spillovers impossible, for example, to envision kindle a fire that feeds on itself—one the Internet, one of today’s wonder technology fueling development of technologies, without the computer. another. If there is any alchemy in free The Internet and the computer, in turn, enterprise, this is it: technology pave the way for the next wave of spillovers. advances—search engines to explore New products are spreading the World Wide Web, high-speed faster. Although feasible in the late modems, gadgets that access the Inter- 1800s, electric power didn’t become net through the television set, the soft- universal until the mid-20th century. ware to design home pages and intelli- The first automobiles arrived on Amer- gent agents that automatically sift ican roads in the late 1800s, but the through the oceans of information country still had more horses than cars homes. Christopher Latham Sholes available in cyberspace. The Internet into the 1920s. The technology for tele- invented the typewriter in 1867 to may be particularly powerful in vision came in the 1920s, but the produce legible letters more quickly. driving technological change because invention didn’t reach America’s Ben Logee Baird produced the first it reduces the cost of new discoveries living rooms in large numbers until the working television in 1926. Ted Hoff by putting the latest research online at early 1950s. These examples illustrate of Intel Corp. invented the micro- the touch of a button. a fact of technological life: the time processor in 1971 as the indispensable And the ripple effects from the PC component of the hand-held calcu- don’t stop with computer-related between invention and diffusion can be decades or more. lator. None of these inventors envi- industries. Computational biology, a But as lightning-fast communica- sioned the PC. Yet binary program- branch of science that uses computers tions spread information faster and ming, electricity, the typewriter key- to locate and code genes, illustrates consumers grow more sophisticated, board, the cathode-ray tube, the how the PC’s increasing power puts new products are emerging more microprocessor and hundreds of other technology and progress on an even quickly than in the past. It took 55 inventions were available for the West faster track. Biologists are already iden- years to get the automobile to a quarter Coast hobbyists and entrepreneurs tifying six to 10 new proteins a week, of the U.S. population. The telephone who contrived the first crude personal and with more powerful microproces- required 35 years; the television, 26. computers in the mid-1970s. sors, the process is likely to be three Now look at some recent innovations: 9 10 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D After vaporizing a sodium pellet with a laser and forming an atomic beam from the debris, researchers at Bell Labs use lasers to slow the atoms’ movement and create a thick “soup” of light particles, which cool the atoms to a record 240 millionths of a degree below absolute zero. The final step in the process is to shoot a powerful beam through the area to trap the atoms. a quarter of U.S. households owned a personal computer within 16 years of its introduction. For the cellular telephone, the time shrank to 13 years.7 The Internet is coming into commer- Markets are getting larger. The dismantling of trade barriers can cial use even faster than the PC or the Larger markets increase the incentive to open whole new markets to U.S. pro- cell phone. (See Exhibit D in foldout: introduce new technology. It’s simply ducers. For many products yet to “The Newer, the Faster.”) a matter of payoff. Had Alexander come, the market will be global, so New products follow a pattern. At Graham Bell lived on a small island the rewards for successful innovation first, the latest innovations are expen- with a population of 10, he’d have figure to be even greater. sive and perhaps tricky to use, so their had little to gain from inventing the market consists of a handful of telephone. Fortunately for Bell—and wealthy gadget lovers. Over time, the 20th century denizens—he intro- products become cheaper and more duced his invention into a time with consumer-friendly through mass pro- millions duction and improved design. What spread out on a continental scale.8 In was once a luxury becomes an every- the 1990s, of course, many new prod- day necessity. The companies that ucts enter a market of hundreds of make the products can then expand millions of customers. of potential customers, rapidly, chalking up sales and adding Population is only one way markets new jobs. Can there be anything better grow. Rising incomes add to the number for society—new and better products of people who can afford to splurge on for consumers, increased sales for the latest bells and whistles. Falling companies, more jobs for workers and transportation costs and quickening more fuel for future progress? information flows can enlarge markets. 7 Even the microwave oven and VCR illustrate the speedup in diffusion with the introduction of the microchip. The VCR was invented in 1952 and the microwave in 1953. When the microchip was introduced in 1971, less than 1 percent of households had either. Riding the cost-cutting wave of the microchip, however, a quarter of American homes enjoyed both by 1986 —in just 15 years. 8 Said another way, Thomas R. Malthus had it exactly backward when he predicted that Earth’s population would outstrip its resources, leading to ever-growing poverty. In a free enterprise system, growing population (market size) prompts more innovation, which stimulates the growth process. There is no guarantee of avoiding Malthus’ dismal scenario in anything other than a market-based system. T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | However useful for many purposes, total output is a figment which would not exist at all, were there no statisticians to create it. —Joseph Schumpeter Strict logic is a stern master, and if one respected it, one would never construct or use any production Exhibit 1 index. —Arthur F. Burns Don’t Count On It GDP statisticians just “can’t get no respect.” As if their job isn’t hard already— Estimates of Bias in the figuring out how to tally into one grand number all those apples, oranges and U.S. Consumer Price Index AUTHOR(S) POINT ESTIMATE Advisory Comm. to Study the CPI (1996) 1.1 Michael Boskin (1995) 1.5 Congressional Budget Office (1994) .5 Michael R. Darby (1995) 1.5 W. Erwin Diewert (1995) 1.5 Robert J. Gordon (1995) 1.7 Alan Greenspan (1995) 1.0 Zvi Griliches (1995) 1.0 Dale W. Jorgenson (1995) 1.0 Jim Klumpner (1996) .4 Lebow, Roberts and Stockton (1994) 1.0 Ariel Pakes (1995) .8 everything else we buy — new measurement problems arrive every day as markets give us more for our money. Improvements in product quality and new goods create measurement problems that are commonly acknowledged. But more difficulties stem from GDP’s failure to value variety and customization. American consumers can enjoy the cuisine of more than 40 countries today, as compared with just a handful in the 1970s. We can choose from among twice as many automobile producers, which offer more makes and options than ever. Microbreweries have brought us an extended array of beers, with some outlets carrying nearly 400 kinds. We have more variety in soft drinks, tennis shoes, magazines, radio stations, martial arts classes, coffee, amusement parks, cereal, sport utility vehicles, toothbrushes and on and on. Variety and customization enrich our lives because they allow us to select characteristics we value highly, but to the statisticians every car is a white Chevrolet. 1.0 Then there are preventive goods and services. Antilock brakes and air bags help Wynne and Sigalla (1994) 1.0 prevent collisions and injuries. Safety caps on pill bottles keep children from Equally weighted average 1.1 ingesting poison. Fat-absorbing proteins allow overweight people to avoid Shapiro and Wilcox (1996) expensive diet programs. Statisticians can’t measure goods unseen: the accident SOURCE: Moulton (1996). Bias in CPI Inflation that doesn’t happen. A vaccine might someday eliminate tooth decay. Instead of fixing cavities, dentists might build houses or design Web sites, with no effect on overall GDP. But, meanwhile, we would have the benefit of the holes that aren’t 140 120 Per capita GDP (Thousands of 1987 dollars) in people’s teeth. What aggregate statistic could show this gain? 2.2% growth Statisticians are aware of the measurement quandary surrounding GDP and, in an effort to improve the statistics, are likely to reduce the gap between revisions of 100 the inflation index from 11 years to four or five. Economists have recommended changes that would lower our estimates of CPI inflation by an average of 1.1 per- 80 cent, thus crediting more real growth to the economy. That’s a huge revision— indeed, a doubling of our estimated growth rate—considering the fact that GDP 60 40 1.1% growth per capita grew at an average annual rate of just over 1 percent during the 1973–96 period. It means that per capita GDP could be one-third higher than we had thought possible by 2020 and double what we had expected by 2055. 20 0 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053 2063 What a Difference 1.1% Can Make But even with the changes, statisticians will miss a lot of what’s going on. 11 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D Exhibit 2 Man Does Not Live by GDP Alone Far more than any other measure, GDP is used to gauge America’s economic progress. Fact is, though, we take our progress in ways other than GDP. “The reduction of working hours is one of the most significant ‘products’ of economic evolution.”* Yet GDP gives the economy no credit for gains in leisure. Although measures of productivity— The Misunderstood Economy output per hour at work—credit time off, they generally miss leisure time taken at work. (See Exhibit 4: “The Way We Work.”) Both GDP and productivity statistics fail to capture other aspects of improvement in our Understanding how free enterprise lives, such as better working conditions. And they fall short of capturing the value of new stimulates progress gives us good reason and better products, increased variety and customization, and for optimism about America’s future. products that are preventive in nature, such as cures. The system is working to perpetuate (See Exhibit 1: “Don’t Count On It.”) better working conditions and even accelerate advances in our living standards. The irony is that the numbers don’t agree. Progress is showing up everywhere but in the statistics.9 The problem, in part, lies in the tools we use. The national income and product accounts, developed in the 1940s, arrive at GDP by toting up the value of goods and services the economy produces. These accounts do ECONOMIC RESOURCES physical capital people’s time technology 12 more leisure higher productivity In short, the economy works to produce whatever we want, not just GDP. (See Exhibit 3: “Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.”) new goods higher quality greater variety preventive output *Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter. a reasonably good job of measuring more GDP traditional output —tons of steel, bushels of wheat, cases of toothpaste, tables, chairs, haircuts. Add it all up, decline of 99 percent. Meanwhile, 1981. But the VCR didn’t make it into and you’ve got GDP.10 our measures of inflation show a 180 the consumer price index until 1987, Much of what we get, however, isn’t percent increase in the price of light after its price had fallen to under $300. actually what we buy. We don’t really bulbs and fixtures.11 The result is an The pocket calculator, invented in want cars—we want transportation. We overstatement of inflation and an 1971, harnesses more computing power don’t really want telephones—we want understatement of true growth. than a $750,000 room-sized mainframe to communicate. We don’t really want light bulbs—we want light. Such measurement problems occur time and again whenever markets give The distinction isn’t facetious. The us more for our money. Improvements everyday light bulb, for example, is a in product quality, new goods, greater readily countable object that can be variety and customization, preventive easily included in GDP: all we need to goods—all can widen the gap between know is how many are sold and at true and measured GDP. (See Exhibit 1: what price. The light it produces, how- “Don’t Count On It.”) ever, isn’t so tangible. Yale University’s The measurement problems are par- William Nordhaus looked at the price ticularly acute when technology is of light and concluded it has fallen moving rapidly. Take, for example, new from 40 cents per 1,000 lumen hours goods. Today’s VCRs provide better ser- in 1800 to a tenth of a cent today, a vice than those that sold for $1,125 in 9 One notable exception is Wall Street, where a bull market has pushed the Dow up over 250 percent since the start of the decade. 10 To arrive at “real” growth, a common proxy for how well the economy’s doing, statisticians adjust the GDP numbers to account for rising prices. If the numbers overstate inflation, growth will come out equally low, suggesting that the economy is weaker than it really is. 11 By progressing from less to more expensive lighting equipment—from candles to lamps to light bulbs—without accounting for the service each provides (lumens), the price of light is recorded as rising, even though it in fact has sharply declined. T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | Now more than ever, we depend on computers to complete our daily activities. In our service and information economy, computer applications will grow exponentially and improve our lives in ways we have yet to imagine and cannot easily measure. radar screen, the Internet is barely registering a blip.14 Take a moment to contemplate the irony: just when the economy is most successful—when it produces the most worth for the least cost—the gap between true and measured GDP growth is the greatest. The economy can get the least credit when it’s accomplishing the most. (See Exhibit E in foldout: “The Language of Revolution.”) of the 1950s but didn’t show up in the longer and require less maintenance, consumer price statistics until 1978, manufacture stereos that reproduce after its price had fallen well below truer sound, grow tomatoes that don’t $100.12 The personal computer was turn to mush when frozen, make clothes ignored by the statistics until 1987, that fit better and require less care, when its cost to the average American improve mammograms to detect tumors had fallen from a lifetime of work to lit- at an early stage and pluck free informa- tle more than two weeks’ worth. When tion from cyberspace. In each case, cellular telephones came on the market we’re getting more of what we want at in 1984, consumers paid as much as the same or lower prices, befuddling the $3,500 for the convenience of on-the-go well-intended number crunchers. communication. Now the phone often Statisticians keep track of cost— comes free, an inducement to sign with that’s all they have to count. The econ- a cellular service provider.13 Cell omy produces worth—that’s what phones won’t have a place in the price people want. These aren’t always the index until 1998, when at least 30 per- same concept, and they diverge as cent of Americans will own one. The technology enables the economy to result, in each of these cases, is an over- deliver more worth at less cost. If estimation of inflation and an under- medical science invented a 1-cent pill statement of real growth and progress. that cured all our ills, it would be Statisticians wouldn’t be stymied if worth a lot but cost virtually nothing. these gains could be instantaneously Sound ludicrous? Consider the Inter- tallied in the numbers that track the net. In trying to find a way to charge economy. It simply cannot be done. customers for accessing Web sites, With rapid advances in technology, new companies have decided our smallest and better products are coming at a unit of money—1 cent—is too much. dizzying rate. We buy cars that last A 1/10 -cent unit is needed. On GDP’s But the problem is deeper — even more fundamental. Our economy is not simply mismeasured, it’s misunderstood. The economy has never tried to produce GDP: it tries to produce happiness, or satisfaction. And there’s a lot more to life than GDP. (See Exhibit 2: “Man Does Not Live by GDP Alone.”) In the information age, our economy is providing benefits beyond those easily captured by GDP. When making a list of needs and wants, most people start with food, clothing and shelter. After that, they move on to safety and security and leisure time, then perhaps to some of the “fun” aspects of life, such as entertainment, travel and cul12 The first pocket calculators cost more than $600. 13 Competition has reduced the monthly cost of cellular service, too. The average local monthly bill went from nearly $100 in 1987 to under $50 by 1995. 14 U.S. researchers, say, can travel in seconds from Ukraine to the UK in cyberspace at virtually no cost, whereas alternative modes of travel would cost thousands of dollars. 13 14 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D Global communications have already been revolutionized by the fiber optic cable, which transmits pulses of light instead of electrical current. As researchers expand the technology, market forces will move new products and services into our daily lives with greater speed. tural enrichment. Beyond that, most of much as possible. We’ve progressed breaks. What are workers’ concerns in us seek personal fulfillment, such as from narrow productivity concerns to the 1990s? Meaningful work, respect, the satisfaction that comes from a “have a nice day.” What working con- empowerment, social activities, well- worthwhile or enjoyable job. This list ditions did Americans tolerate decades ness programs and family benefits. shouldn’t surprise us. It reflects the ago for the sake of productivity? Foul What’s more, there’s evidence that influential work of Abraham Maslow air, bad lighting, hazardous sub- workers are using more of their on-the- (1908–70), the American psychologist. stances, long hours, inadequate sanita- job time for socializing, running Maslow’s pyramid, a staple of psychol- tion, inflexible schedules, repetitive errands, attending colleagues’ retire- ogy, reveals a hierarchy of needs and tasks, the risk of death. Few of today’s ment parties, going outside to smoke, wants buried deep in the human workers face the on-the-job risks of selling their kids’ Girl Scout cookies, psyche. (See Exhibit 3: “Maslow’s Hier- their grandparents. Modern work- exercising in company facilities—a archy of Needs.”) At the most basic places are well-lit and air-conditioned. little bit here, a little bit there. It all adds level are the physiological needs. With Workplace deaths and accidents are at up: time-diary surveys find that the gap those met, we move up to safety, social all-time lows. Hours at work have fall- between actual weekly work time and needs, self-esteem and, at the pinnacle en for decades. Many workers have what’s reported in government statistics of the pyramid, self-actualization. flexible schedules, including regular rose from one hour in 1965 to six hours As Americans grow wealthier, our today. But neither the GDP nor produc- physiological needs are being increas- tivity statistics reflect job time spent on ingly met, and there’s a shift in wants from basic products to ever more intangible outputs. There are plenty of examples—from personal physical fit- selfactualization self-esteem social needs ecotourism and early retirement. One safety Americans today are less willing to bow to the deity of productivity and devote ourselves to churning out as 4: “The Way We Work.”) And what about work that’s fun? enjoy. Yet the standard statistics are apt to register economic regression if we of the biggest yet most overlooked ing conditions. relaxation while at work.15 (See Exhibit Most folks these days seek work they ness gurus and Internet chat rooms to examples is improvement in our work- socialization, personal business or physiological Exhibit 3 Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs 15 Productivity statistics capture the gains in leisure time away from work because they measure output per hour at work. But GDP makes no attempt to include the value of any leisure, whether on or off the job. Exhibit B TOP 10 INVENTIONS Not All Inventions Are Created Equal AND DISCOVERIES 1 Electricity 1873 From chewing gum to electricity, all inventions are an effort to raise our living 2 Microprocessor 1971 standards. A few make it, most don’t, but some inventions are clearly more 3 Computer 1946 earthshaking than others. Perhaps the best way to judge an invention’s signifi- 4 DNA 1953 cance is by its extent of spillovers—connections to other goods and services that 5 Telephone 1876 it either makes possible or makes cheaper to produce. This box lists the top 10 6 Automobile 1886 inventions and discoveries of modern times—open, of course, to dispute. What 7 Internet 1991 shouldn’t be overlooked, however, is that four of the top 10 are relatively 8 Television 1926 recent—from the past 50 years. 9 Refrigeration 1913 10 Airplane 1903 Exhibit C Technology Spillovers MICROPROCESSORS AT WORK Navigate air traffic in our skies Guide lasers used to cut metal, diamonds and corneas The microprocessor. First it helped with such minor tasks Read zip codes and sort mail as addition. Now it’s helping us decipher the code of the Manage weather-tracking systems that span the globe human genome. Create special effects in movies Invented just 25 years ago, the microchip already has enabled the invention of thousands of smart consumer products. The answering machine, pocket calculator, caller Scan prices of goods in checkout lines Keep inventories and records Track packages at carrier superhubs Route phone calls worldwide ID device, camcorder, CD player, personal computer, digital Run copiers and fax machines in the workplace and home camera, fax machine, microwave oven, organizer, pace- Direct robots in automobile manufacturing plants maker, pager, pocket translator, laser printer, remote con- Reduce static and interference in cellular transmissions trol, radar detector, synthesizer and VCR are just a few. The Operate automatic teller machines chip resides unseen in most products, its functions vital Pilot sewing machines in custom-fit blue jeans factories though increasingly taken for granted. In cellular phones, Chart 3-D seismic surveys used in oil exploration microchips translate voices to electronic signals and back, Locate a child in distress reduce interference, and store and execute programmed Control temperature and time in microwave ovens functions. In automobiles, they control carburetion, timing, Design new drugs transmission, suspension, emissions, brakes, air bags, seat positions, navigational aids, engine diagnostics, keyless locks, instruments and more. The sample of the microchip’s varied uses at the right helps tell the story. Fly planes Mix paint Translate languages Coordinate traffic lights Settle transactions between customers But this is just the beginning. As the microchip gets Monitor optical networks inside dams smaller and faster, its applications are gaining momentum. Improve the functioning of our cars More and more, it’s not speed but our own imaginations that limit how and where chips can be used. Identify us by our fingerprints, iris, voice or scent Teach parrots to talk Connect people and information over the World Wide Web Exhibit A 25 Technologies for the Next 25 Years LASERS TELECOMMUNICATIONS Light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation. The technology of communications at a distance. Talk to any- Measure velocity and distance. Determine and record shape body, anytime, anywhere. (cavity). Survey and map. Level. Assess space. Cruise timber (determine tree diameter and height). Clean surfaces. Cut metal, wood, diamonds or corneas. Weld. Drill. Carve objects. Inlay. Remove wrinkles in skin. Destroy tumors. Eradicate garbage. Reduce vascular prominence. Prototype images. Heat treat. Read bar codes, CDs. Measure vibration. HOLOGRAPHY The process of recording and displaying information in a threedimensional lexicon. Replicate 3-D images. Improve ID cards. OPTICS Secure authentication. Thwart counterfeiters. Record copious data. The genesis and propagation of light and the effects that it undergoes and produces. Magnify and focus. Control visual aberrations. Transmit signals, voices, information. Probe endo- VIRTUAL REALITY scopically. Sense remotely. Illuminate. Coat materials. Detect The interactive computer-aided simulation of the world humans displacement. Gain vibration immunity (as in telescopes). experience through their senses. Animate roller-coaster rides, Control motion. Switch optically. Compute quickly. Stabilize hang-gliding. Tour museums, the White House. Walk through satellites and spacecraft. orchestras. Explore caves, oceans, other planets. Perform remote surgery, endoscopy, laparoscopy. Guide micromachines inside the human body remotely. Educate dynamically. Train pilots, drivers, surgeons, firefighters. Guide insects beneath earthquake rubble. Practice golf swing. PHOTONICS The generation, manipulation, transport, detection and use of light or energy whose quantum unit is the photon. Detect and destroy airborne pollutants, irritants, allergens, bacteria, radon. GENOMICS Detect and destroy missiles, meteors. Transmit signals. The study of genes and their sequencing on the DNA structure Network wirelessly. Perform fiber optic endoscopy (using of chromosomes in the nucleus of cells (the genome), as in the lasers). Kill tumors using photosensitive drugs. Navigate vehi- Human Genome Project, an effort to identify, sequence and cles. Electrify with photovoltaic cells (solar energy). Digitize map the entire human genome. Repair or reverse genetic artwork, defects, mutations. Create new vaccines. Improve diagnoses. Recognize gestures. Create flat panel displays, LCDs. Measure Engineer cancer-killing proteins or DNA bullets. Trigger hor- features of surfaces at atomic scales. cinema, multimedia video, teleconferencing. mone production. Strengthen immunity. Cure baldness, pimples. Assess environmental cell damage (from radiation). COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY Advance DNA fingerprinting. Speciate infectious organisms. Computer-aided biological discovery. Match bits of DNA to Clone. Slow aging. known gene sequences. Search for defective genes, mutation. Assist gene therapy. Discover new drugs. Photos: Rice University Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE The computer modeling of human mental abilities, as in an intelligent agent—software that enables a computer to react to its environment, learn from experience and direct tasks useful to its specific owner. Manage investments, control smart appliances, monitor household operations, shop for cars — all on behalf of the principal customer. Track specific companies. Search, retrieve and filter information across the Internet— SMART PRODUCTS news, weather, sports, products, schools, companies of direct Products employing one or more microprocessors programmed interest to the customer. to perform specific useful functions. Smart consumer goods: Refrigerators track household food inventory; beds and toilets INTERNET An interconnected network (web) of computers, each serving information to whoever is connected. Locate information on any subject, anytime. Send mail, shop, bank, invest. Buy tickets, make reservations, study menus. Visit friends, club members, coworkers. Peruse companies. Job hunt. monitor health; chairs adjust for comfort; cards facilitate exchange; locks facilitate keyless entry; skis bend and stiffen as needed. Smart machines: Cars travel without drivers, collisions; sewing machines tailor to recorded personal patterns. Smart materials: Parts warn of excessive stress, heat; clothing reacts to temperature. INTEGRATION TECHNOLOGY Computer telephony integration (CTI), including, more broadly, cable, wireless and satellite systems, radio and television broadcasting, traffic control and appliances in an expanded Internet. THE MICROPROCESSOR See who you’re talking to. Video conference. Control (block, A one-chip computer. identify, cull) incoming calls. Visit remotely with intelligent agents. Monitor asthma via modem. Shop, bank, order movies, COMPUTER vote. Control equipment, send digitized images from afar. Meet An electromechanical device potential dates. that has logic and memory and can be programmed to perform specific functions. BIOTECHNOLOGY Applied knowledge of the natural biological factors that affect life. Engineer foods to eliminate undesirable characteristics and add desirable ones. Engineer disease- and insect-resistant plants. Increase food production. Clean up waste and pollutants. Soften blue jeans. Manufacture disinfectants, fungicides, germicides, bactericides, biocides, herbicides and slimicides. Make biodegradable packaging, preservatives, rust and scale removers. Reduce oxidation. Reduce insect problems (fire ants, killer bees). Create new dermal tissue, cartilage, heart valves, blood, hair follicles. Grow human organs in animals. Engineer new drugs, vaccines and pharmaceuticals. Propagate vegetation. Create new life forms. Reverse environmental contamination. NANOTECHNOLOGY The precise and purposeful manipulation of matter at an atomic level (1 billionth of a meter). Otherwise known as molecular engineering. Make superconductors. Create flawless diamonds, more powerful and perfect lenses, biological sensors. Make thin films (organic, metallic, diamond). Manufacture perfect bearings, rotors. Achieve microscopic adhesion (paint, glue, DNA). Gain or reduce elasticity. Make tiny machines the size of microbes to break down toxic waste, kill pests, attack viral diseases. RECOGNITION TECHNOLOGY Identification of people or objects by their characteristic shape, sound or smell. Shape recognition: Recognize faces, features, irises, emotions. Identify objects. Guide robotic arms. Improve quality control. Detect defects, forgeries. Digitize form for patterns, templates. Sound recognition: Voiceprint and identify individuals. Gain keyless entry. Translate languages. Recognize material stress (such as worn brake pads). Smell recognition: Identify individuals. Detect fire, decay, pollution, gas leaks, drugs, bogus perfumes. Analyze breath for illness. Sniff wounds for bacteria, infection. Recognize and remove airborne odor, dust, pollen. NOISE CANCELLATION TECHNOLOGY Computer-aided noise negation through the process of inverse wave generation. Reduce noise in airplanes, industrial machinery, household appliances (vacuum, lawn mower). Reduce vibration in engine gears, motors, machines. Reduce road noise. Eliminate static and disturbance in wireless voice and video transmissions. Reduce background noise in speech recognition. Treat tinnitus (persistent ringing in the ears). MICROWAVE The transmission, amplification and reception of a very short electromagnetic wave (0.25 to 100 centimeters in wavelength). Transmit voice, data, facsimile and video via satellite and wireless systems. Track weather via Doppler radar. Guide and land aircraft. Cook, heat, dry, clean, sanitize. WIRELESS The remote transmission of analog and digital signals via the GPS wave spectrum. Facilitate satellite and cellular communica- Global Positioning System. Orbiting satellites used to ascertain tions: cordless and cell phones, pagers, wireless cable (Direct the exact position (latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates) of TV), wristwatch phones, wireless digital modems, cordless an object anywhere on the Earth’s surface. Coordinate taxi pick- appliances. up and delivery. Till soil, bulldoze ground inch by inch. Pinpoint cars, missing children, pets. Help the blind negotiate unfamiliar areas. Plan travel routes. BIONICS The merging of biological, electronic and mechanical systems. ROBOTICS Develop implants to help the deaf hear, the blind see. Pump The use of mechanical and electronic equipment to perform the drugs to diabetics. Pace or defibrillate hearts. Restore neural functions of humans. Weld, paint, handle materials, move pack- sensation. Improve prostheses. Meld microchips and bugs, ages and equipment. Assemble vehicles, computers. Fight fires. robots and animals. Decontaminate facilities. Navigate hazardous areas. Vacuum, clean floors, windows. Farm (field robots using GPS). Cut grass. Perform surgery. Explore the ocean. Mine, maintain aircraft. MATERIALS SCIENCE The study of how structural and electronic materials behave at all levels (from quantum to fracture mechanics) so as to MICROMACHINES improve their performance and devise new materials. Create The manufacture, at the micron scale, of gears, hinges, motors, light, strong, noise-absorbing composites for car and aircraft pumps and other mechanical structures. Often not visible to the bodies, high-temperature alloys and ceramics for jet engines, human eye. Probe the body and clean arteries, locate tumors, biocompatible materials for surgical implants, fast (3-D) semi- measure the strength of a single heart muscle cell. Sense strain. conductors, Mine intelligently. Make smaller, faster microchips. high-temperature ceramic Manufacture materials by plasma spraying. superconductors. Exhibit E The Language of Revolution “If your PC has enough MIPS and your modem enough bits, then boot up, log on to your ISP and browse cyberspace for the Web site using your favorite meta-search engine. From the home page, download version 2.1 software, move your mouse to the main menu window and surf to the Net chat line. When your E-mail icon pops up, encrypt your response to avoid packet sniffers and Web heads or other hacker geeks trying to export viruses and crash your hard drive.” Huh? One test of whether times are revolutionary is how fast language changes. And if we’re not moving fast, where are we getting all these new words? Just look at how our vocabulary has grown in the past two decades to describe the computer and the Internet. Try finding these words, phrases or acronyms in a 1970 dictionary. If they exist at all, they’ll have a totally different meaning. You won’t find Internet listed either. Bit BOOT UP Browser BYTE Cache CD-ROM Chat line CLIENT/SERVER CPU CURSOR Cyberspace DISK DOS DOWNLOAD Driver E-MAIL Encryption FLOPPY Geek GIGABYTE GUI HACKER Hard drive HITS Home page ICON IDE ISP LAN LAPTOP Log on MEGAHERTZ MIPS MODEM Monitor MOTHER BOARD Mouse ONLINE Packet sniffers PC Pixel RAM ROM SEARCH ENGINE SOFTWARE Spam Surf the Net URL Version 2.1 VIRUS Web heads WEB SITE Window THE SPREAD OF PRODUCTS INTO AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS Percent ownership* 100 Airplane Television Radio Telephone 90 Microwave 80 Electricity VCR Automobile 70 60 50 40 PC 30 Cell phone Internet 20 10 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Years since product invented *Percent ownership refers to the fraction of households that enjoy each product, except for the airplane, automobile and cell phone. Airplane refers to the percentage of air miles traveled per capita relative to miles traveled in 1996; automobile refers to the number of motor vehicles relative to persons age 16 and older; cell phone refers to the number of cellular phones per registered passenger automobile. Exhibit D The Newer, the Faster As the economy evolves, it takes less and less time for new products to spread into the population. It took 46 years for a quarter of American homes to be wired for electricity. Getting phones to a fourth of America took 35 years; cars, 55. More recently, however, the PC required only 16 years, the cellular phone 13 and the Internet seven. Even the microwave oven and VCR illustrate the speedup in diffusion since the microchip’s introduction in 1971. Though both products were invented in the early 1950s, as late as 1971 fewer than 1 percent of households had either. Riding the cost-cutting wave of the microchip, however, a quarter of American homes enjoyed both by 1986. SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1970 and various years); Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association (1996); The World Almanac and Book of Facts (1997). SPREAD OF PRODUCTS TO A QUARTER OF THE POPULATION Year invented ▼ Years to spread Electricity 1873 46 Telephone 1876 35 Automobile 1886 55 Airplane 1903 64 Product Radio 1906 22 Television 1926 26 VCR 1952 34 Microwave oven 1953 30 PC 1975 16 Cellular phone 1983 13 Internet 1991 7 T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D | With 25 dishes, Goonhilly Earth Station complex in Cornwall, England, is the largest operational satellite station on the planet. The complex provides the next generation of vehicle tracking and monitoring through Global Positioning System technology. By making use of worldwide satellite coverage, the system can continually track objects (including the family car) anywhere on the planet. quit a job we’re good at but don’t like in order to take one that’s more enjoyable. A Future of Fast Growth It just doesn’t make good sense. We take our progress in ways other than GDP. happens in the economy as it moves into the 21st century. We are fast departing a time when The very notion of economic progress can be measured by GDP or progress is an artifact of the modern, any other simple tally of what the The economy today reflects our technology-rich era. Until the advent economy produces. If we become fix- wealthier society’s preferences for of capitalism in the 18th century, the ated on the numbers and fail to imag- harder-to-measure consumption. As world’s living standards changed ine the possibilities, we may miss one we grow richer still in the future, we only slowly. The French farmer of the of the greatest periods of economic can expect society to spend more of its 17th century lived, worked and died advancement in history. Worse yet, if time, energy and income addressing pretty much like the Roman farmer of we judge 21st century progress by needs that are further and further from the 1st century B.C. The same cannot 20th century measures, we may infer the physiological. Pity the poor statis- be said for our world: living stan- that our system is failing and in need tician with the job of tracking our dards rise from generation to genera- of repair by government. increasingly elusive economy. tion. We are in the throes of one of That is the bad news. By their very nature, the foibles of history’s great bursts of technology, Free enterprise is America’s greatest our statistics are hard to overcome. put to use quickly and effectively by welfare program. For more than two Critics of our national accounts can a vibrant market economy. centuries, the system has worked to offer only an educated guess at the It would, of course, be good to have make our lives better. Whatever we’ve inaccuracies. Taken together, however, statistics that capture all the nuances wanted—new and improved products, the glitches imply that the numbers of the economy as it evolves to meet more leisure, better jobs, easier lives— that gauge our economy aren’t giving our needs. That’s probably too much it has provided in abundance. us a fair reading of what’s going on. to expect. Expense and complexity The pessimists fret that our best days Most important, the inaccuracies prob- make a daunting task of tracking an are behind us. They are wrong. We ably are worse than they were a decade American economy centered less and stand poised on the brink of a new era, or two ago, and they are likely to get less on tangible output. Our measure- one endowed with technology and even worse as we move into the 21st ment technology cannot keep pace teeming with opportunities. The future century and beyond. In short, our with the rest of our technological offers even faster economic progress. progress is becoming increasingly hard progress. Relying on our existing mea- We can keep up with the Joneses. to capture with our measurement tools. sures, we’re going to miss a lot of what That is the good news. 15 16 | THE E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D Exhibit 4 The Way We Work For most of us, work is a major part of life. And better working conditions Deaths per 100,000 workers have routinely been a product of progress, right along with more GDP. This 45 is evident not just from the steady decline in worker death rates but also 40 from a comparison of our work concerns today versus yesterday. In the 35 early 1900s, our work worries centered on safety, fatigue, long hours, exces- 30 sive heat, poor ventilation, high humidity, bad lighting, exposure, disease, lack of adequate toilet facilities and rigid schedules. Today, we seek inter- 25 esting and fun jobs with meaningful work, nice offices, employee activities, 20 flexible hours, empowerment, wellness classes, communication, employee 15 counseling and the ability to telecommute. We also appear to demand more personal time at work. Time-diary surveys show that Americans today take up to six hours per week of leisure on the 10 5 0 job, as compared with only one hour in 1965. ’30 ’35 ’40 ’45 ’50 ’55 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 Decline in the Worker Death Rate What are some of the ways employees use their recorded work hours other than to work? SOURCE: National Safety Council (1996). Arrive late after dropping off the kids Leave early to pick up the kids Go to parent–teacher conferences Visit the d o c t o r o r d e n t i s t Ta l k o n t h e p h o n e t o f r i e n d s C h a t w i t h coworkers Go outside to smoke Give blood Play solitaire Average weekly hours 7 6 o n t h e c o m p u t e r B r o w s e t h e I n t e r n e t f o r p e r s o n a l s t u ff Attend wellness classes Sell cookies for the kids Raise 5 funds for charities Visit with friends via the Internet Call 4 automated tellers Exercise (even in employers’ facilities) C a l l t a l k r a d i o p r o g r a m s o r c o n t e s t s R e a d t h e p a p e r, a 3 book or a magazine Attend parties or showers Write personal correspondence Leave to run errands Make a grocery l i s t P e r f o r m c l u b d u t i e s Ta k e l o n g b r e a k s P a y b i l l s N a p A little bit here, a little bit there, we’re spending our day more the way we’d like. The point is not that American workers are cheating their companies. On the contrary, it’s all a part of progress. We’re not automatons, enslaved to productivity as if we were still in the fields or on an assembly line. One way we take the gains of technological progress is to simply enjoy life in an economy that, more and more, transcends measurement. 2 1 0 1965 1975 1985 Time Spent Not Working at Work SOURCE: Robinson and Bostrom (1994). T H E E C O N O M Y AT L I G H T S P E E D ACKNOWLEDGMENT “The Economy at Light Speed: Technology and Growth in the Information Age –And Beyond” was written by W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm. The essay is based on research conducted by Cox, vice president and economic advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. SELECTED REFERENCES Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index, “Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living: Final Report to the Senate Finance Committee,” December 4, 1996. Berndt, Ernst R., Zvi Griliches and Neal Rappaport, “Econometric Estimates of Prices Indexes for Personal Computers in the 1990s,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, no. 4549, November 1993. Boskin, Michael J., prepared statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 109 –15. Burns, Arthur F., Production Trends in the United States Since 1870 (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1934). Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association, “Wireless Growth Sets New Annual Records,” media release, September 19, 1996. Congressional Budget Office, Is the Growth of the CPI a Biased Measure of Changes in the Cost of Living? (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Budget Office, October 1994). Darby, Michael R., prepared statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 173–76. Diewert, W. Erwin, prepared statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 115–18. Famighetti, Robert, ed., The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 1997 (Mahwah, N.J.: World Almanac Books). Foulkes, Fred K., Creating More Meaningful Work (New York: American Management Association, 1969). Gordon, Robert J., prepared statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 122–26. Greenspan, Alan, prepared statement in “Review of Congressional Budget Cost Estimating: Joint Hearing Before the House of Representatives Committee on the Budget and the Senate Committee on the Budget,” Serial no. 104-1, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 130–49. Greenwood, Jeremy, and Mehmet Yorukoglu, “1974,” Carnegie–Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, forthcoming. Griliches, Zvi, prepared statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 129–32. Jorgenson, Dale W., statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 36–41. Klumpner, Jim, “Fact and Fancy: CPI Biases and the Federal Budget,” Business Economics 31 (April 1996): 22–9. Lebow, David E., John M. Roberts and David J. Stockton, “Monetary Policy and ‘the Price Level,’ ” mimeo, Federal Reserve Board, 1994. Moulton, Brent R., “Bias in the Consumer Price Index: What Is the Evidence?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10 (Fall 1996): 159–77. Nakamura, Leonard, “Is the U.S. Economy Really Growing Too Slowly? Maybe We’re Measuring Growth Wrong,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, forthcoming; “Is U.S. Economic Performance Really that Bad?” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper no. 95-21/R, April 1996; “Measuring Inflation in a High-Tech Age,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, November/December 1995, 13–25. National Safety Council, “Work, 1995” in Accident Facts, 1996 ed. (Itasca, Ill., 1996). Nordhaus, William D., “Do Real Output and Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Light Suggests Not,” Yale Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper no. 1078, September 1994. North, Peter, The Wall Chart of Science and Invention (New York: Dorset Press, 1991). Paepke, C. Owen, The Evolution of Progress (New York: Random House, 1993). | Pakes, Ariel, statement in “Consumer Price Index: Hearings Before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate,” Senate Hearing 104-69, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1995, 44–8. Price, C. W., Orval Simpson, Dale Wolf, Charles Woodward, F. J. Moss, W. R. Basset and Others, Working Conditions, Wages and Profits (Chicago: A. W. Shaw, 1920). Robinson, John P., and Ann Bostrom, “The Overestimated Workweek? What Time Diary Measures Suggest,” Monthly Labor Review 117 (August 1994): 11–23. Schumpeter, Joseph, Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process, vol. 2 (New York: McGrawHill, 1939). Shapiro, Matthew D., and David W. Wilcox, “Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996 (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996), 93–142. Sherwood, Mark K., “Difficulties in the Measurement of Service Outputs,” Monthly Labor Review 117 (March 1994): 11– 9. Slifman, L., and C. Corrado, “Decomposition of Productivity and Unit Costs,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, mimeo, November 18, 1996. W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Work in America: Report of a Special Task Force to the Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1973). U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, various years; Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1, 1975. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Housing Characteristics (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, various years). U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compensation and Working Conditions, June 1996; CPI Detailed Report: Data for January 1994, March 1994. Veblen, Thorstein, The Theory of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions (New York: MacMillan, 1899). Wynne, Mark A., and Fiona D. Sigalla, “The Consumer Price Index,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1994, 1–22. 17 18 | 1996 ANNUAL REPORT Nineteen Ninety-Six: Throughout 1996, the Federal Reserve FINANCIAL SERVICES Bank of Dallas built upon its long-term In 1996, the Dallas Fed continued to goals of economic growth, stability and offer enhanced services for financial leadership for the Eleventh District. institutions in the Eleventh District. As part of its continuing emphasis on Particular emphasis was placed on customer service, the Bank increased ECONOMIC OVERVIEW expanding electronic payments and its customer base and volume in elec- The Eleventh District posted its 10th settlement options for financial insti- tronic check imaging services and successive year of growth in 1996. tution customers in order to promote implemented improvements to the The regional economy again outper- the development of a more efficient processing of automated clearing- formed the nation’s, although growth and effective payments system. house (ACH) and currency services. occurred at a more modest pace than In currency and cash services, the To better serve financial institutions in recent years. The construction Bank provided additional flexibility in the Eleventh District, the Bank industry posted strong gains in the for warehousing currency for the Fed- began implementing a risk-based commercial arena, which offset a eral Reserve System and the Bureau of approach to banking supervision and modest decline in residential con- Engraving and Printing (BEP). The continued to be a leader in the devel- struction. The banking sector contin- completion of vault expansion early in opment of automated tools to assist in ued to do well, with credit widely the year enabled the Dallas Fed to store the supervisory process. The Bank’s available throughout 1996. The oil 280 million notes for the BEP and ship public policy and education efforts and gas industry performed excep- 61 million notes to other Federal focused on free market themes and tionally well, helped by higher prices Reserve districts. In currency process- international economics and finance, and technological improvements that ing, the Dallas Fed expanded its auto- particularly with respect to Mexico increased productivity. mated control and perpetual inventory and the rest of Latin America. High-tech industries continued to tracking systems to each of its three rebound. Weak activity in semicon- Branch offices. As Texas phased out ductors, however, held high-tech paper food coupons in favor of an elec- manufacturing growth to a rate of only tronic debit card system, the Bank 2.5 percent, down from 7.3 percent experienced a 92.9 percent decrease in in 1995. A severe drought hurt the the number of paper food coupons it farming sectors. received, credited and destroyed. The Although labor supply constraints Dallas Fed consolidated commercial kept economic growth in check, book-entry tenders with the San Fran- Texas’ unemployment rate in October cisco District to increase efficiency in was its lowest in 15 years. the sale of Treasury bills, notes and and ranching A strengthening Mexican economy bonds to financial institutions. helped generate increased export During the year, the Bank expanded demand for the District. In the first half the provision of check imaging ser- of 1996, one-third of all Texas exports vices to its Houston and San Antonio went to Mexico. For the year, Texas Branch offices. Other electronic pay- exports to Mexico grew 34 percent. ments system improvements included 1996 ANNUAL REPORT | T h e Ye a r i n R e v i e w software enhancement to allow elec- trict, the Dallas Fed conducts examina- tronic transmission of check images tions for safety and soundness and for and electronic check adjustments, and compliance with consumer protection the added capacity for customers to laws and the Community Reinvest- transmit deposit control documents ment Act (CRA). To reduce the burden electronically. The District’s volume of BANKING SUPERVISION AND associated with supervisory activities automated clearinghouse transactions DISCOUNT AND CREDIT and to better serve our stakeholders, rose 23 percent in 1996, reflecting the Aggregate financial data reported to the Dallas Fed began implementing a continued success of the Dallas Fed’s the Dallas Fed showed that banks in risk-focused approach to bank supervi- Alliance 98 partnership with auto- the Eleventh District continued to sion. This approach should make the mated clearinghouse associations. The thrive in 1996. Continued loan growth, supervisory process more efficient and volume of electronic transfers of funds combined with stable net interest mar- less intrusive, as more time is devoted also increased by 15 percent. Conven- gins, again produced a solid return on to planning and preparing for an exam- tional paper check volume increased banking assets. Asset quality ratios ination to tailor it to the risk profile slightly more than 1 percent during remained favorable, and capital levels of individual institutions. Making the year, despite the growth of elec- continued at historic highs. greater use of available technology will Although consolidations and merg- be a key factor in achieving this super- transactions was centralized into one ers reduced the number of banks in visory objective. In that regard, the national system in 1996, which the District from 1,030 in 1995 to 986 Dallas Fed is the development site for helped reduce the Fed’s automated in 1996, five new bank charters were the National Examination Database support costs and lower the price of granted. The trend of converting and has been named the Federal ACH services for customers. tronic services. Processing of ACH banks to branch offices continued, Reserve Bank responsible for coordi- Working to communicate informa- with the number of branches increas- nating software development for use in tion to the financial community, the ing from 3,008 to 3,184. The Dallas the supervisory process. Bank held focus groups throughout Fed processed 284 applications— The Dallas Fed’s discount window the District and check operations compared with 255 in 1995— for made 263 loans in 1996, primarily seminars in various cities. Presenta- mergers and acquisitions, changes in through its seasonal lending program. tions to financial institutions and the control and management, and other Total credit extended decreased from general business community stimu- actions requiring regulatory approval. $791 million in 1995 to $643 million lated use of ACH origination and Reflecting the solid condition of the in 1996, in part because of the highly direct payment services. The Dallas industry and statutory changes length- liquid position of many District insti- Fed also conducted workshops on the ening the time between examinations, tutions. Treasury’s new Electronic Funds Tax the Dallas Fed conducted 308 exami- The 48 state-chartered banks under Payment System. nations, 59 fewer than in 1995. Of the the Dallas Fed’s supervision in 1996 308 examinations, 42 were reviews for represented 4.9 percent of all insured compliance with consumer and civil commercial banks in the District and rights laws. As the supervisor of state held about 2.8 percent of insured com- member banks, bank holding compa- mercial bank assets. The 505 bank nies and foreign agencies in the Dis- holding companies under Dallas Fed 19 20 | 1996 ANNUAL REPORT supervision last year controlled 599 rate systems, and featured former production of several publications insured commercial banks that held Argentine Minister of the Economy aimed at students and teachers. The about 31 percent of all insured com- Domingo Cavallo. Among the Bank’s Federal Reserve System launched the mercial bank assets in the District. major research themes for 1996 were Fed Challenge competition in 1996, About 56 percent of the District’s com- the impact of the peso devaluation on and a five-member student team from mercial bank assets were controlled by the region and the effects of electronic the Eleventh District won the national holding companies headquartered in technology on the U.S. money supply. monetary policy competition. Other other districts; the remainder were The Bank also presented two art activities included a monetary policy controlled by independent banks in exhibits, featuring works by Mexican conference for the academic commu- the District. Thirty-four foreign banks artists Ruben Leyva and Diego Rivera. nity and an intensive week-long from 12 countries operated 16 state- The Bank continued to provide pro- licensed agencies and 27 representa- grams and publications to communi- tive offices. cate broader public policy objectives The Bank continued to provide and key economic topics through its information relating to the promotion six regular economic publications and of community development invest- several special publications. Other ini- ments, the Community Reinvestment tiatives included a conference on the Act and other consumer laws through role of free enterprise in solving public education, outreach and technical policy problems, “Replanting the assistance activities. Along with an RESEARCH AND Seeds of Free Enterprise: Grassroots annual community development lend- PUBLIC AFFAIRS Solutions to Public Policy Problems”; ing conference and the bimonthly The Bank’s research and public out- the conference “Supervision—Or Will newsletter Banking & Community reach efforts promoted free enterprise It Be Super Revision?” sponsored by Perspectives, the Bank produced A and explored the intricacies of Ameri- Houston Baptist University in coopera- Banker’s Quick Reference Guide to ca’s economic partnership with Mexico tion with the Houston Branch, which CRA, which is being used nationally and other Latin American countries in focused on shaping a partnership by the Federal Reserve System; Texas 1996. The Bank’s Center for Latin approach to lending; and “Job Creation Colonias: A Thumbnail Sketch of the American Economics cosponsored the and Destruction in a Global Economy,” Conditions, Challenges and Opportu- international conference “Policy Rules sponsored by the El Paso Branch. nities, a special report on credit needs program for teachers titled “Exploring Monetary Policy.” and Tequila Lessons” with the Univer- The Bank continued its commit- and community development initia- sidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos ment to economic education with tives along the U.S.–Mexican border; Aires. The conference focused on the numerous programs for university and Banking on Partnerships: A Digest ripple effect of the Mexican peso crisis and high school educators, sponsor- of Community-Based Organizations in and the sustainability of fixed exchange ship of a student essay contest and the Houston. C O R P O R AT E E X E C U T I V E S | AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT C O R P O R AT E E X E C U T I V E S Standing (from left): Helen E. Holcomb, First Vice President and COO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Roger R. Hemminghaus (Deputy Chairman), Chairman and CEO, Ultramar Diamond Shamrock Corp. Seated (from left): Robert D. McTeer, Jr., President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Cece Smith (Chairman), General Partner, Phillips-Smith Specialty Retail Group. SENIOR MANAGEMENT Standing (from left): Harvey Rosenblum, Senior Vice President, Research and Statistics and Director of Research; Sam C. Clay, Vice President in Charge, El Paso Branch; J. Tyrone Gholson, Senior Vice President, Cash, Protection, Securities and Services; Larry J. Reck, Senior Vice President, Check Collection and Data Services; Robert D. Hankins, Senior Vice President, Banking Supervision, Discount and Credit, and Financial Industry Studies; Millard E. Sweatt, Senior Vice President, Operations Analysis, Purchasing and Legal, General Counsel, Ethics Officer, Secretary to the Board. Seated (from left): James L. Stull, Senior Vice President in Charge, San Antonio Branch; Robert D. McTeer, Jr., President and CEO; Helen E. Holcomb, First Vice President and COO; Robert Smith III, Senior Vice President in Charge, Houston Branch. 21 22 | BOARDS OF DIRECTORS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS Standing (from left): James A. Martin, Second General Vice President, International Association of Bridge, Structural & Ornamental Iron Workers; Kirk A. McLaughlin, President and CEO, Security Bank; J. B. Cooper, Jr., Farmer; Gayle M. Earls, President and CEO, Texas Independent Bank; Dudley K. Montgomery, President and CEO, Security State Bank of Pecos. Seated (from left): Milton Carroll, Chairman and CEO, Instrument Products Inc.; Roger R. Hemminghaus (Deputy Chairman), Chairman and CEO, Ultramar Diamond Shamrock Corp.; Cece Smith (Chairman), General Partner, Phillips-Smith Specialty Retail Group. Not pictured: Robert C. McNair, Chairman and CEO, Cogen Technologies Energy Group. EL PASO BRANCH Standing (from left): Hugo Bustamante, Jr., Owner and CEO, CarLube Inc., ProntoLube Inc.; Patricia Z. Holland-Branch (Chairman), President and CEO, PZH Contract Design Inc.; Alvin T. Johnson (Chairman Pro Tem), President, Management Assistance Corporation of America; Lester L. Parker, President and COO, Bank of the West. Seated (from left): Beauregard Brite White, Rancher, J. E. White, Jr. & Sons; Veronica K. Callaghan, Vice President and Principal, KASCO Ventures Inc. Not pictured: Ben H. Haines, Jr., President and CEO, First National Bank of Dona Ana County. BOARDS OF DIRECTORS HOUSTON BRANCH Standing (from left): I. H. Kempner III (Chairman), Chairman, Imperial Holly Corp.; T. H. Dippel, Jr., Chairman and President, Brenham Bancshares Inc.; J. Michael Solar, Principal Attorney, Solar & Fernandes LLP. Seated (from left): Peggy Pearce Caskey, CEO, Laboratories for Genetic Services Inc.; Edward O. Gaylord (Chairman Pro Tem), Chairman, EOTT Energy Corp., and General Partner, EOTT Energy Partners LP. Not pictured: Judith B. Craven, President, United Way of the Texas Gulf Coast; Walter E. Johnson, President and CEO, Southwest Bank of Texas. SAN ANTONIO BRANCH Standing (from left): Calvin R. Weinheimer, President and COO, Kerrville Communications Corp.; Erich Wendl, Vice President, Webro Investment Corp.; H. B. Zachry, Jr. (Chairman Pro Tem), Chairman and CEO, H. B. Zachry Co.; Douglas G. Macdonald, President, South Texas National Bank. Seated (from left): Carol L. Thompson (Chairman), President, The Thompson Group; Richard W. Evans, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Frost National Bank. Not pictured: Juliet V. Garcia, President, University of Texas at Brownsville. | 23 24 | ADVISORY COUNCILS AND OFFICERS ADVISORY COUNCILS OFFICERS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS Financial Institutions Small Business and Agriculture Dallas James A. Altick Stephen K. Balas Robert D. McTeer, Jr. W. Arthur Tribble President and CEO, Central Bank, Monroe, Louisiana Owner and Pharmacist, Eagle Lake Drugstore and Home Health Care, Owner, Balas Farming Co., Eagle Lake, Texas President and CEO Vice President Helen E. Holcomb Meredith N. Black First Vice President and COO Assistant Vice President T. Mike Field J. Tyrone Gholson Senior Vice President Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Evelyn LV. Watkins Agriculture and Real Estate, Lubbock, Texas Robert D. Hankins Terry B. Campbell Mine K. Yücel Gilbert D. Gaedcke Senior Vice President Assistant Vice President Research Officer Larry J. Reck John V. Duca El Paso Senior Vice President Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Sam C. Clay Robert G. Greer Vice Chairman, Northern Trust Bank of Texas, N.A., Houston, Texas David A. Hartman Chairman and CEO, Hartland Bank, N.A., Austin, Texas Ron Humphreys Chairman and CEO, Gaedcke Equipment Co., Houston, Texas Public Affairs Officer Community Affairs Officer Harvey Rosenblum Lee Kirkpatrick Paula Lambert President and CEO, Brownsville National Bank, Brownsville, Texas Founder and President, Mozzarella Co., Dallas, Texas Francis Lee Robert W. Latimer President and CEO, Southwest Corporate Federal Credit Union, Dallas, Texas President, Adobe Corporate Capital LLC, San Antonio, Texas Don Powell Gloria V. Brown Chairman, President and CEO, Boatmen’s First National Bank of Amarillo, Amarillo, Texas Shareholder, Director and President, Mitchell & Jenkins P.C., Attorneys and Counselors at Law, Dallas, Texas Jimmy Seay J. Jay O’Brien W. Michael Cox Assistant Vice President President and CEO, City National Bank, Mineral Wells, Texas Cattleman, Amarillo, Texas Vice President and Economic Advisor John R. Phillips Sandra M. Smith President and CEO, Texas Federal Credit Union, Dallas, Texas John Spencer, Jr. Senior Vice President, Frost National Bank, San Antonio, Texas Harvey Zinn President and CEO, Southern National Bank, Sugar Land, Texas Robert G. Feil Millard E. Sweatt William C. Gruben Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Ethics Officer and Secretary to the Board Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Assistant Vice President Bookman Peters J. Eloise Guinn Assistant Vice President Johnny L. Johnson Assistant Vice President Earl Anderson Vice President Evan F. Koenig Basil J. Asaro Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President Vice President C. LaVor Lym Assistant Vice President Vice President James R. McCullin Assistant Vice President Vice President Dean A. Pankonien Assistant Vice President Javier R. Jimenez Assistant Vice President Houston Robert Smith III Senior Vice President in Charge Vernon L. Bartee Vice President Richard J. Burda Assistant Vice President Robert W. Gilmer Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President René G. Gonzales Assistant Vice President Certified Public Accountant, Bryan, Texas Billy J. Dusek Tim Shell Kermit S. Harmon, Jr. ExecuTrain of Texas Inc., Dallas, Texas Vice President Sharon A. Sweeney Joanna O. Kolson Charles R. Tharp Vice President Assistant Vice President, Associate General Counsel and Associate Secretary Partner/Manager, Tharp Farms, Las Cruces, New Mexico Joel L. Koonce, Jr. Gayle Teague Vice President Assistant Vice President James L. Stull Robert F. Langlinais Michael N. Turner Senior Vice President in Charge Vice President and General Auditor Assistant Vice President Vice President Larry C. Ripley Assistant Vice President Hayden D. Watson Executive Vice President, First Interstate Bank of Texas, N.A., Houston, Texas Senior Vice President and Director of Research Lyne H. Carter Accounting Officer Vice President in Charge Robert D. Josserand Joe D. Mitchell Nancy Vickrey Stephen P. A. Brown Senior Vice President, First National Bank of Artesia, Artesia, New Mexico President, AzTx Cattle Co., Hereford, Texas KaSandra M. Goulding Federal Advisory Council Member Charles T. Doyle Chairman, Texas Independent Bancshares Inc., Texas City, Texas Kenneth V. McKee Assistant Vice President Luther E. Richards Assistant Vice President San Antonio Stephen M. Welch Rebecca W. Meinzer Assistant Vice President Vice President and Administrative Officer Marion E. White Assistant Vice President Genie D. Short Vice President Bob W. Williams Taylor H. Barbee Assistant Vice President Richard A. Gutierrez Assistant Vice President D. Karen Salisbury Operations Officer Assistant Vice President Larry M. Snell Vice President Emilie S. Worthy Assistant Vice President Effective January 1, 1997 SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION S TAT E M E N T O F C O N D I T I O N (in millions) ASSETS DECEMBER 31, 1996 Gold certificates $ Special drawing rights certificates 433 DECEMBER 31, 1995 $ 405 399 376 49 49 1,284 333 14,118 12,381 1,197 1,414 Accrued interest receivable 127 126 Interdistrict settlement account 218 3,287 Bank premises and equipment, net 190 191 14 ________ 15 ________ $ 18,029 ________ ________ $ 18,577 ________ ________ $ 15,340 $ 15,570 1,730 2,178 12 13 374 258 Statutory surplus transfer due U.S. Treasury 15 18 Accrued benefit cost 42 39 9 ________ 9 ________ $ 17,522 $ 18,085 257 246 250 ________ 246 ________ Coin Items in process of collection U.S. government and federal agency securities, net Investments denominated in foreign currencies Other assets To t a l a s s e t s LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL Liabilities Federal Reserve notes outstanding, net Deposits: Depository institutions Other deposits Deferred credit items Other liabilities To t a l l i a b i l i t i e s ________ ________ C A P I TA L Capital paid in Surplus To t a l c a p i t a l $ 507 ________ $ To t a l l i a b i l i t i e s a n d c a p i t a l $ 18,029 $ 18,577 These statements are prepared by Bank management. Copies of full and final financial statements, complete with footnotes, are available by contacting the Public Affairs Department at (214) 922-5254. ________ ________ 492 ________ ________ ________ | 25 26 | SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION S TAT E M E N T O F I N C O M E (in millions) FOR THE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 1996 DECEMBER 31, 1995 Interest on U.S. government securities $ 824 $ 804 Interest on foreign currencies 28 ______ 53 ______ $ 852 ______ $ 857 ______ $ $ INTEREST INCOME: To t a l i n t e r e s t i n c o m e O T H E R O P E R AT I N G I N C O M E : Income from services Reimbursable services to government agencies 9 (104) 67 1 — 1 ______ ______1 ($______ 42) $ 126 ______ Government securities gains, net To t a l o t h e r o p e r a t i n g i n c o m e 49 7 Foreign currency gains (losses), net Other income 53 O P E R AT I N G E X P E N S E S : Salaries and other benefits $ 77 $ 74 Occupancy expense 12 12 Equipment expense 10 9 2 2 26 23 55 ______ 53 ______ $ 182 ______ $ 173 ______ Income before cumulative effect of accounting change $ 628 $ 810 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle — ______ (6) ______ Net income prior to distribution $ 628 ______ ______ $ 804 ______ ______ $ $ Cost of unreimbursed Treasury services Assessments by Board of Governors Other expenses To t a l o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s DISTRIBUTION OF NET INCOME: Dividends paid to member banks Transferred to surplus 15 15 11 — 453 789 149 ______ — ______ $ 628 ______ ______ $ 804 ______ ______ Payments to U.S. Treasury as interest on Federal Reserve notes Payments to U.S. Treasury as required by statute These statements are prepared by Bank management. Copies of full and final financial statements, complete with footnotes, are available by contacting the Public Affairs Department at (214) 922-5254. SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION S TAT E M E N T O F C H A N G E S I N C A P I TA L F o r t h e Ye a r s E n d e d D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 9 6 , and December 31, 1995 (in millions) T O TA L C A P I TA L PA I D I N SURPLUS C A P I TA L $246 $246 $492 — — — — ________ — ________ — ________ $246 $246 $492 — 11 11 11 — 11 — ________ (7) ________ (7) ________ $257 ________ ________ $250 ________ ________ $507 ________ ________ B A L A N C E AT J A N U A RY 1 , 1 9 9 5 (4,936,624 shares) Net income transferred to surplus Net change in capital stock redeemed (7,663 shares) B A L A N C E AT D E C E M B E R 3 1 , 1 9 9 5 (4,928,961 shares) Net income transferred to surplus Net change in capital stock issued (210,343 shares) Statutory surplus transfer to the U.S. Treasury B A L A N C E AT D E C E M B E R 3 1 , 1 9 9 6 (5,139,304 shares) These statements are prepared by Bank management. Copies of full and final financial statements, complete with footnotes, are available by contacting the Public Affairs Department at (214) 922-5254. | 27 28 | VOLUME O F O P E R AT I O N S NUMBER OF ITEMS HANDLED DOLLAR AMOUNT (Thousands) (Millions) 1996 1995 1996 1995 1,425,077 1,328,681 22,064 20,022 836,223 931,406 138 153 1,091,459 1,071,311 648,485 614,465 Commercial—fine sorted 265,759 291,637 88,821 87,105 U.S. government checks 29,908 31,411 29,072 30,497 154,479 129,472 538,058 351,043 8,183 6,962 12,049,359 10,405,869 338 400 4,741,244 5,169,920 263 418 657 789 25 47 1,192 1,842 7,672 255,714 35 1,325 SERVICES TO DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS CASH SERVICES Currency received from circulation Coin received from circulation CHECK PROCESSING Commercial —processed E L E C T R O N I C PAY M E N T S Automated Clearing House items originated Funds transfers processed Book-entry security transfers LOANS* Advances made SERVICES TO THE U.S. TREASURY AND GOVERNMENT AGENCIES Issues and reinvestments of Treasury securities Food coupons destroyed *Individual loans, not in thousands T H E AE B CO ON U OT MTYH A E T DLAI G LH LA T SS PFEEEDD | The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks in the United States. Together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., these organizations form the Federal Reserve System and function as the nation’s central bank. The System’s basic purpose is to provide a flow of money and credit that will foster orderly economic growth and a stable dollar. In addition, Federal Reserve Banks supervise banks and bank holding companies and provide certain financial services to the banking industry, the federal government and the public. Since 1914, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has served the financial institutions in the Eleventh District. The Eleventh District encompasses 350,000 square miles and comprises the state of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. The three Branch offices of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are in El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. 29 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2200 North Pearl Street Dallas, Texas 75201 (214) 922-6000 El Paso Branch 301 East Main Street El Paso, Texas 79901 (915) 544-4730 Houston Branch 1701 San Jacinto Street Houston, Texas 77002 (713) 659-4433 San Antonio Branch 126 East Nueva Street San Antonio, Texas 78204 (210) 978-1200 www.dallasfed.org