Full text of Agricultural Survey : First Quarter 2006

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S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E

S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E
F

First Quarter
Comments
District bankers were asked for any additional comments concerning agricultural land
values or credit conditions. These comments
have been edited.

es of rain, which is the first beneficial moisture
we have received in almost six months. Farmers will be able to plow and prepare their land,
but additional moisture will be needed before
planting.
Overall, we are unstable. We have received
some rain and farmers are able to begin soil
preparation. Cattle prices remain good for the
producers. Land prices continue to escalate.

Region 1—Northern High Plains
Region 4—Southern Low Plains
High energy and input costs, as well as
the lack of moisture, continue to be a concern
for farm producers in 2006. It appears that cattle prices are in the beginning of a downward
price slope that is causing stocker and feedyard cattle equities to evaporate.
Recent wildfires eliminated grazing for
the cattle that were saved. Cattle prices have
dropped slightly. Although it cannot be determined at this time, a slight adverse impact is
expected for the local economy in the short
term. However, the unfortunate fire disaster
may create some demand.
A new cheese factory is projected to
open in Dalhart in fall 2007. This will increase
the need for dairies in our immediate area.
Recent range fires have devastated a portion of the eastern Texas Panhandle. While
livestock losses are estimated to be less than
first predicted, the destruction in the affected
areas has been catastrophic. The overall economic impact of the fires has not yet been calculated. Mid-March snow and rain have been
welcomed, but it may be too little too late for
the winter wheat crop. Irrigated-crop producers continue to be less than optimistic for 2006
due to high electricity and natural gas prices.
Region 2—Southern High Plains
It has been very dry; we have not had
good precipitation for 151 days.
Loan demand is down because of the
excellent cotton crop for 2005, and ag customer
deposits are up substantially. Cotton ginning is
just now being completed for the 2005 crop.
South Plains cotton producers had a successful season in 2005. As a result, their creditworthiness has improved. Most will have more
cash equity in their operation in 2006, which
will help mitigate their credit risk in an operating environment characterized by rising input
costs. We need rain badly!

The last two consecutive years have been
good for cattle and cotton. Dryland cotton will
need timely rains, as there is no underground
moisture this season.
Very little real estate is being purchased
for agricultural purposes.
Ranchland values are increasing monthly.
Farmland sales are the highest in 33 years.
Buyers are mainly from out of the county.
Region 5—Cross Timbers
We may end up with a decent year, only
because of cattle prices. Wheat prices are very
low in relation to the cost of farming—fertilizer and diesel.
Having received only 1.5 inches of rain in
the past 150 days, wheat pasture is almost nonexistent and stock tanks are getting very low.
Region 6—North Central Texas
The mild winter has helped, and we have
had nearly 7 inches of rain in six weeks. I look
for cattle prices to further skyrocket if we continue to have these rains this spring. The hay
season should be much better than last year.
Highway right-of-way purchases have created Section 1031 tax-deferred exchanges,
driving land prices up.
Southern Hill County land values could
increase due to natural gas exploration.
Rain is desperately needed, both for soil
moisture and runoff for ponds and lakes. Increased production costs and stagnant commodity prices at harvest time paint a very
bleak picture for our producers.
Region 7—East Texas
Cattle prices have been strong, and recent
rains have lifted local ranchers’ spirits.

conditions. The small rains we’ve had have
not produced any run-off water for ponds.
Farmers are just now planting, or they will not
plant at all. Hay prices continue to climb, if
you can even find hay. Real estate buyers are
becoming more selective in what they want.
We are extremely dry in Central Texas.
Hay is scarce, and what is coming into the area
is expensive. If it does not rain soon, ranchers
will spend their entire calf crop income on
feed, unless they sell out first. Dryland farmers
are waiting on a rain to plant.
We had only one bona fide ag real estate
transaction; the others were for investment
purposes. The cattle market is still good, and
pastures are improving. However, stock water
needs replenishing. Loan repayments are good.
Three of our rice farmers will quit farming because of losses in the past two years.

The cotton crop was one of the best this
area has had. Our area received about 3 inch-

The coastal region has received spotty
rain showers. Soil moisture conditions are fair
to poor, with better moisture in the northeastern part of the region. Many farmers have
stopped planting until significant rainfall is
received. Cull cows and calves are being sold
earlier due to dry weather. High input costs
and lack of soil moisture will likely make this
a tough year for all producers.

Demand for Loans
Demand for loans decreased, report 26 percent
of bankers.
Percent
100

First Quarter 2006

Quarterly Survey of
Agricultural Credit
Conditions is compiled from
a survey of Eleventh District
agricultural bankers. This

of Dallas and is available

the Federal Reserve Bank

without charge by writing
to the Research Department,
Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas, P.O. Box 655906,
Dallas, TX 75265–5906,
or by telephoning
(214) 922-5254. It is
available on the web at
www.dallasfed.org.

For questions regarding
information in the release,
contact Laila Assanie,

The new-year crop lending cycle is in full
process.

Land values, which soared for the past
five years, have leveled off for the time being.
One animal unit is costing around $12,600,
making it virtually impossible for livestock
producers to pay for land with just the production off the livestock.
Land values do not reflect agricultural
values.

It is very, very dry. Ranchers are trying to
hold on to their current cattle inventory. It is
critical that we receive moisture by midsummer. The fire danger is high. More ranchland
is being purchased for subdivision.
We are experiencing severe drought conditions in eastern New Mexico.

Quarterly Sur vey of Agricultural
Credit Conditions in the
Eleventh Federal Reser ve District

publication is prepared by

Region 12—Southern New Mexico

Agricultural Credit Conditions at
Survey Banks in the Eleventh District

Region 11—Trans-Pecos and Edwards
Plateau

Region 8—Central Texas
We have not had rain for 255 days.
We are experiencing continued drought

Region 9—Coastal Texas

Region 13—Northern Louisiana
Region 3—Northern Low Plains

(214) 922-5191.

The First Quarter Survey revealed that the
ongoing dry spell spurred challenges for agricultural producers in the Eleventh District. The
drought sparked wildfires that scorched hundreds
of thousands of acres of pastureland and wiped
out thousands of livestock in the Texas Panhandle.
Poor pasture conditions and short hay supplies
fueled supplemental feeding costs, compelling
some cattle producers to cull their livestock.
Farmers in several regions prepped land for
spring crops; however, additional rain was needed before planting could take place. Additionally,
low crop prices and high fuel-related input costs
further strained the production environment. On
the plus side, cash receipts from the 2005
bumper cotton harvest allowed producers to pay
down their debt, improving their creditworthiness. Recent rains helped overall moisture conditions somewhat in the Northern Low Plains,
North Central Texas and East Texas regions, and
cattle prices remained favorable.
Here are additional details from the survey:
• Farmland values increased in most regions,
although at a slower pace compared with last
quarter. Bankers commented that values are being
pushed up by demand for land for nonagricultural purposes, such as natural gas exploration, recreation and investment.
• Bankers foresee making fewer farm real
estate loans over the next three months, partly
due to less land being sold for agricultural use.
Seventeen percent of respondents anticipate a
decline in the volume of farm real estate loans,
up from 10 percent of respondents last year.
• Twenty-one percent of respondents anticipate making fewer operating loans in the next
three months, compared with 11 percent a year
ago. Some bankers link this expected decline to
drought conditions that are discouraging farmers
from planting and to high cash receipts from the
record cotton harvest that have helped farmers
pay off their debts.

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Greater

Funds Available for Additional Lending
Lower loan demand increased availability of funds,
say 26 percent of respondents.
Percent
100

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Greater

Rate of Loan Repayment
Excellent cotton crop yields boosted the rate of loan
repayment. Thus, 19 percent of bankers reported
higher repayment rates.
Percent
100

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04
Greater

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E

Agricultural Credit Conditions at Survey Banks in the Eleventh District
Renewals or Extensions of Loans
The bountiful cotton harvest of 2005 reduced demand
for loan renewals and extensions; 19 percent of
bankers say renewals and extensions are down.
Percent
100

Loan–Deposit Ratios at Survey Banks
Average actual and desired ratios

65
60

55
50

0
Q1:'00

Actual Ratio
Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Greater

Desired Ratio

2005:1

2005:2

2005:3

2005:4

2006:1

Amount of Collateral
Collateral requirements remain mostly unchanged,
report 89 percent of bankers.
Percent
100

DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN – DEPOSIT RATIOS

Banks Reporting (Percent)
60

2005
Ratio

2006

April 1

July 1

Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

24
12
15
21
28

23
13
19
16
29

18
16
14
15
37

20
15
21
14
30

25
12
21
15
29

Less than 41%
41% to 50%
51% to 60%
61% to 70%
More than 70%

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

INTEREST RATE — FIXED

Greater

Average Rate (Percent)

Total Agricultural Loans at Eleventh District Banks
Agricultural lending continues to grow in the District.

2005

2006

April 1

July 1

Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

7.75
7.97
7.85
7.37

8.07
8.29
8.16
7.56

8.41
8.53
8.36
7.97

8.86
8.85
8.72
8.11

8.96
9.15
8.84
8.19

Millions of dollars (seasonally adjusted)

Feeder cattle
Other farm operating
Intermediate term
Long-term farm real estate

6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800

INTEREST RATE — VARIABLE

5,600
5,400

Average Rate (Percent)

5,200

2005

5,000
4,800

Feeder cattle
Other farm operating
Intermediate term
Long-term farm real estate

4,600
’96

’97

’98

’99

’00

’01

’02

’03

’04

’05

Note: Some of the volatility observed in agricultural loan levels is due
to the acquisition of several Eleventh District banks by banks
headquartered in other Reserve Districts.

2006

April 1

July 1

Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

7.25
7.50
7.41
6.94

7.83
8.06
7.89
7.42

8.19
8.33
8.18
7.81

8.27
8.37
8.20
7.79

8.53
8.84
8.62
7.96

S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E

CROPLAND—DRYLAND

Rural Real Estate Values

Agricultural Credit Conditions at Survey Banks in the Eleventh District

April 1, 2006

Renewals or Extensions of Loans
The bountiful cotton harvest of 2005 reduced demand
for loan renewals and extensions; 19 percent of
bankers say renewals and extensions are down.

Average
Banks1
Value2
First Quarter 2006

Number of banks reporting land values.
Prices are dollars per acre, not adjusted for inflation.
3
Not adjusted for inflation.
4
The rise in land values in Southern New Mexico was
partly due to an increase in number of reporters.
n.r.—Not reported due to insufficient responses.
1
2

Percent
100

Loan–Deposit Ratios at Survey Banks
Average actual and desired ratios

65
60

Eleventh Federal Reserve District

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Greater

Desired Ratio

2005:1

2005:2

2005:3

2005:4

N E W

M E X I C O

2006:1

DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN – DEPOSIT RATIOS

2005

2006
Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

24
12
15
21
28

23
13
19
16
29

18
16
14
15
37

20
15
21
14
30

25
12
21
15
29

Less than 41%
41% to 50%
51% to 60%
61% to 70%
More than 70%

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Northern High Plains
Southern High Plains
Northern Low Plains
Southern Low Plains
Cross Timbers
North Central Texas
East Texas

8
9
10
11
12
13

Central Texas
Coastal Texas
South Texas
Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau
Southern New Mexico
Northern Louisiana

2005
Ratio

Feeder cattle
Other farm operating
Intermediate term
Long-term farm real estate

6,400
6,200
6,000

April 1

July 1

Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

7.75
7.97
7.85
7.37

8.07
8.29
8.16
7.56

8.41
8.53
8.36
7.97

8.86
8.85
8.72
8.11

8.96
9.15
8.84
8.19

Eleventh District Real Land Values
Dryland, irrigated land and ranchland values
edged up in first quarter 2006.
2000 dollars per acre
900

Irrigated

800

Dryland

700
5,400

Average Rate (Percent)

5,200

2005
Ratio

5,000
4,800

Feeder cattle
Other farm operating
Intermediate term
Long-term farm real estate

4,600
’01

’02

0.9

8.7

900
365

0.6
7.1

9.1
24.34

Percent Changes3
in Values from
Previous Previous
Quarter
Year

999

0.6

10.9

80
19
16
7
5
4
n.r.
4
9
5
n.r.

906
674
824
624
764
1,392
n.r.
1,028
2,261
1,211
n.r.

0.1
0
2.0
–3.2
1.8
0.4
n.r.
0.5
4.4
1.0
n.r.

8.7
10.0
6.9
–3.6
3.3
8.2
n.r.
–5.1
17.9
10.6
n.r.

1,682

0.2

17.4

6
8

1,084
1,805

–0.9
1.4

6.1
18.04

Average
Banks1
Value2
First Quarter 2006

INTEREST RATE — VARIABLE

5,600

’00

767

6
5

2006

5,800

’99

RANCHLAND

Millions of dollars (seasonally adjusted)

’98

10.5
7.0
10.6
4.6
8.1
4.3
14.8
8.0
14.8
3.0
n.r.

INTEREST RATE — FIXED

Greater

Total Agricultural Loans at Eleventh District Banks
Agricultural lending continues to grow in the District.

’97

1.2
0.9
2.4
–0.9
3.0
0.7
1.3
3.1
3.2
–3.2
n.r.

Northern Louisiana
Southern New Mexico

Q1:'06

Average Rate (Percent)

’96

879
336
441
395
526
784
1,560
940
1,650
1,013
n.r.

TEXAS
Northern High Plains
Southern High Plains
Northern Low Plains
Southern Low Plains
Cross Timbers
North Central Texas
East Texas
Central Texas
Coastal Texas
South Texas
Trans-Pecos and
Edwards Plateau

July 1

124
20
18
8
10
10
17
8
15
8
n.r.

DISTRICT

April 1

Average
Banks1
Value2
First Quarter 2006

100

Ratio

10.4

Percent

1.1

T E X A S

Banks Reporting (Percent)

876

CROPLAND—IRRIGATED

L O U I S I A N A

Amount of Collateral
Collateral requirements remain mostly unchanged,
report 89 percent of bankers.

135

Q1:'06

DISTRICT

Northern Louisiana
Southern New Mexico

Actual Ratio

Percent Changes3
in Values from
Previous Previous
Quarter
Year

’03

’04

’05

Note: Some of the volatility observed in agricultural loan levels is due
to the acquisition of several Eleventh District banks by banks
headquartered in other Reserve Districts.

600

2006

April 1

July 1

Oct. 1

Jan. 1

Apr. 1

7.25
7.50
7.41
6.94

7.83
8.06
7.89
7.42

8.19
8.33
8.18
7.81

8.27
8.37
8.20
7.79

8.53
8.84
8.62
7.96

Ranchland

500
400
300

’96

DISTRICT

155

787

2.7

17.2

140
20
11
8
9
13
19
20
18
7
n.r.

976
274
222
324
517
971
1,602
1,259
2,118
925
n.r.

2.9
3.2
–4.5
3.1
3.6
–0.8
1.0
3.8
0.8
–2.2
n.r.

16.7
16.5
4.2
23.7
22.8
9.4
6.2
22.7
11.6
–5.2
n.r.

1,031

9.0

34.1

6
9

832
296

2.2
9.6

8.9
49.24

Northern Louisiana
Southern New Mexico

200
’97

’98

’99

’00

’01

’02

’03

’04

’05

’06

Percent Changes3
in Values from
Previous Previous
Quarter
Year

S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E

S T A T I S T I C A L R E L E A S E
F

First Quarter
Comments
District bankers were asked for any additional comments concerning agricultural land
values or credit conditions. These comments
have been edited.

The cotton crop was one of the best this
area has had. Our area received about 3 inch-

Demand for Loans
Demand for loans decreased, report 26 percent
of bankers.
Percent
100

First Quarter 2006

Quarterly Survey of
Agricultural Credit
Conditions is compiled from
a survey of Eleventh District
agricultural bankers. This

of Dallas and is available

the Federal Reserve Bank

For questions regarding
information in the release,
contact Laila Assanie,

The new-year crop lending cycle is in full
process.

Quarterly Sur vey of Agricultural
Credit Conditions in the
Eleventh Federal Reser ve District

publication is prepared by

Region 12—Southern New Mexico

Agricultural Credit Conditions at
Survey Banks in the Eleventh District

Region 11—Trans-Pecos and Edwards
Plateau

Region 8—Central Texas
We have not had rain for 255 days.
We are experiencing continued drought

Region 9—Coastal Texas

Region 13—Northern Louisiana
Region 3—Northern Low Plains

(214) 922-5191.

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Greater

Funds Available for Additional Lending
Lower loan demand increased availability of funds,
say 26 percent of respondents.
Percent
100

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Greater

Rate of Loan Repayment
Excellent cotton crop yields boosted the rate of loan
repayment. Thus, 19 percent of bankers reported
higher repayment rates.
Percent
100

0
Q1:'00

Q1:'01

Q1:'02

Q1:'03

Less

Same

Q1:'04
Greater

Q1:'05

Q1:'06

Full text of Agricultural Survey : First Quarter 2006

FRASER