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AGRICULTURAL NEWS OF THE WEEK FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS Number 727 Wednesday, December 4, 1963 THE 1964 OUTLOOK FOR FARM INCOME Realized net farm income in the United States during 1964 probably will be lower than that in 1963, largely as a result of sharply reduced income from wheat and a continued rise in farm production expenses, according to the Economic Research Service. Under current legislation, a substantial decline in cash receipts from wheat, including Government payments, is anticipated. This decrease probably will more than offset the gain expected in cash income from other commodities. In addition, the persistent rise in prices paid by the Nation's farmers for goods and services used in production likely will boost production expenses to a record level in 1964. Consequently, the aggregate realized net farm income of U. S. farm operators is expected to be about 5% below the estimated $12t billion for 1963. According to the ERS, the above outlook for farm income assumes (1) no change in current legislation for the 1964 crops of wheat and cotton, (2) a continuation of the present program for dairy products, and (3) average growing conditions next year. Another important factor in the forecast is the prospective high level of domestic demand for farm products in 1964, supplemented by a peak export volume of farm products. ~~ BART E R A CT I VI T I E S The U. S. Department of Agriculture recently reported that 38 contracts, with a total value of $39.4 million, were negotiated under the barter program in the 1963 fiscal year (which ended June 30). Barter program policies were revised during the year in or:cler to place more emphasis upon barter procurement of materials that U. S. agencies normally would purchase abroad. Under the revised program, barter requisitions for other government agencies in fiscal 1963 amounted to $23.6 million, compared with $5.2 million in the preceding fiscal year. The procuring agencies reimbursed the Commodity Credit Corporation for these acquisitions. B U S I N E S S VOLUME FARMER C0 0 P E RAT I VE S UP 0 F The total net business volume of the Nation's farmer cooperatives for the 1962 fiscal year (which ended June 30), after adjustment for business done between cooperatives, amounted to $13 billion and reflected a 5% increase over the previous fiscal year, according to a recent USDA report. In contrast to the increased volume, the numbers of cooperatives and memberships were down slightly. For several years, reorganizations involving mergers, consolidations, and acquisitions have been an important influence on the downward trend in the total number of cooperatives. The USDA says that the decline in total memberships in these cooperatives is a reflection of the continuing decrease in the total number of farmers in the United States. C 0 T T 0 N C 0 N S U M P T I 0 N H I T S NEW L 0 W U. S. mill consumption of cotton continued the downward trend evident since World War II and reached a record low of 21.6 lbs. per capita in 1963, which is 4% below last year, according to the ERS. Cotton's share of the total fiber consumption in the Nation is expected to be less than 57% this year, compared with 59% in 1962. In contrast, man-made fiber consumption is expected to reach an alltime high of 14.2 lbs. per person in 1963, reflecting a 9% gain over last year. While consumption of cotton in the United States has been declining, consumption in foreign free world countries has increased an average of 3.8% (689,000 bales) a year since 1947. Foreign free world consumption of cotton during 1963-64 may total 24 million bales, reports the ERS. U. S. carry-over of cotton on August 1, 1964, is indicated at 12.9 million bales, or 1.7 million bales above a year earlier and the largest volume since the record 14.5 million bales in 1956. 1 I VE S T 0 CK During the 3-day trading period ended Wednesday, November 27, the preThanksgiving holiday supply of cattle at Fort Worth, at an estimated 2,200 head, was 27% below a week earlier and less than a year ago, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Slaughter steers sold at prices which were steady to 25¢ per cwt. higher than the previous week's close. Good 915- to 1,145-lb. slaughter steers cleared at $20.50 to $22 per cwt., and Utility and Commercial cows brought $13 to $15.50. Closing prices for feeder cattle were steady to 50¢ per cwt. lower than a week earlier, with Good 500- to 650-lb. steers quoted at $20.50 to $23.50 per cwt. Calf recei~ts of about 900 were 450 below a week earlier but 100 more than a year ago:---F°rices for slaughter calves were fully steady to strong. Good killing calves weighing up to 550 lbs. brought $20.50 to $22.50 per cwt., and 250- to 500-lb. stocker steer calves sold at $21.50 to $25.50. At an estimated 700, hog marketings reflected a 42% decrease from both the preceding week and a year earlier. Compared with the previous Thursday, closing quotations on barrows and gilts were 25¢ to 50¢ per cwt. higher, while those for other classes were mostly steady. The majority of the U. S. No. 1 through No. 3 Grades of 185- to 260-lb. butchers cleared at $14.50 to $15 per cwt. A total of 4,200 sheep and lambs was received at Fort Worth during the 3-day trading period ended NOVeffiber-27, compared with 2,700 in the preceding week and 8,100 a year ago. Trading generally was active, and prices were fully steady. Good and Choice 75- to 100-lb. wooled slaughter lambs sold at $17 to $18.50 per cwt. 8% P 0 UL T RY In the week ~ Friday, November ~ commercial broiler markets opened slightly weaker in south Texas and about steady in east Texas, points out the State Department of Agriculture. On Tuesday the south Texas market became steady; and, at Friday's close, markets were about steady in both areas, although the undertone was unsettled. Closing quotations were 14¢ to 14.5¢ per lb. in south Texas and 13.5¢ in east Texas. During the corresponding period in 1962, closing quotes in south Texas were 14.5¢ to 15.5¢, and prices in east Texas ranged from 13.5¢ to 15.8¢. Commercial broiler markets were steady in south Texas and about steady in east Texas on Monday, December 2. Prices per lb. were: South Texas, 14¢ to 14.5¢; and east Texas, 13¢ to 14¢. BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS Area Week ended November 23l 1963 Percent increase over Comparable Previous week, 1962 week Texas •••.•• Louisiana .• 2,823,000 573,000 4 10 11 9 22 states .. 37 961 000 3 4
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