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11

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1

FEDERAL

RESERVE

Number 189

BANK

OF

DALLAS

Wednesday, August 12, 1,953

COTTON

The u. s. Department or Agriciilture announced this week its first of'f'icial
forecast or the 19$3 cotton crot placing this figure at l.4,605 1 000 bales, which
compares with lS;IJ0,060 bales
st year and a yearl.¥ average of 12,215,000 during
the 10 years trom 1942 to 1951.
Production this year will be supplemented by a ~-over or about 51 200 1 000
bales from previous crops, which gives the u. s. a total supply-or-almost 20,000 1 000
bales of cotton for next year.
The USDA forecast the 1953 Texas cotton cr$1' at 3,525,000, which compares
With last year's crop of 3,750,000 bales and a 1942- 1 average of' 3,020,000 bales.
Yield per acre 1n Texas is indicated at 182 pounds, or 1 pound below average.
Forecast of cotton production for other southwestern states, in baless
Louisiana, 685 1 000; Oklahoma, 360 1 0001 New Mexico, 296,000; and Arizona, 951,000.
These fig1lres reflect increases for Oklahoma and Arizona but declines for Louisiana
and New Mexico, as compared with production in 1952.
Production of American-Egyptian cotton in Texas this year is forecast at
24 1 000 bales, while New Mexico and Arizona are expected to harvest 11,000 bales and
31,000 bales, respectively.
Ginnings of upland cotton in Texas prior to August l amounted to 349,063
bales, compared to 176,356 bales in the same period last· year, according to the
Bureau of the Census. Texas cotton ginned prior to August l averaged higher in
grade and shorter in staple length than that ginned in the same period last season.
Anno\.Ulcement of the government forecast of cotton production this year
caused only mild reaction in the ~ cotton market, despite the fact that the
estimate was higher than expected by the trade. However, cotton futures reacted
downward; cotton futures at New York on Monday, August 10, closed ~5 cents to $1.05
per bale lower than on last Friday. Even greater declines might have been expected
were it not that futures quotations are already near the govenunent support level.
GRAINS
Wheat growers vote Frida;r, August 14, on whether or not they will accept
•heat marketing quotas fort:he coming season. There is great uncertainty as to
which way farmers are going to vote; no one seems to have ventured a guess as to the
outcome of the referendum.
This uncertainty has caused the wheat market to become ve-rr unsettled.
Because of this and other !actors,wheat futures dropped sharpl.1' this week, falling
as much as 10 cents a bushel at Chicago on Mond~. Cash wheat also declined; No.
l hard wheat at Kansas City dropped 6 cents per bushel. In Fort Worth, No. l hard
lrheat closed Monday at a top price of $2.40 1/4 per bushel, 8 cents below last
Week's close and 13 cents below the high for the week.
Weakness in the wheat market yesterday touched off selling ~ other grains.
In Fort Worth,oats and yellow corn declined l to 2 cents per bushel.
LIVESTOCK
Hog prices continued to decline on the Fort Worth market last week; f'or
this and the previous week losses added up to $5.00 to $5.75 per cwt.in this short

time. However, the hog market improved somewhat on Monday or this week. Barrows
and gilts sold $1.00 higher, or at a top price or $23.25.
Good and Choice beer steers and yearlings sold in Fort Worth last week
at $22.50 to $23.00, whilellOri'day•s top price was only $22.50. Good and Choice
tat calves closed last week at $15.00 to $18.50, although the top pri~e Monday ·
was- 117.so. Medium and Good grade stockers sold Monday at $13.50 to $18.oo.
Good and Choice slaughter string lambs sold last week at prices between
$19.00 and $22.50, although Moiiday•sop price was only.$20.00 in a weak market.
Although meat consumption continues at exceptionally high levels, it is
reported that demand for meat at wholesale levels is still somewhat ~indifferent"
because or heavy marketings of livestock. Consumer demand for meat appears to have
been affected by the hot weather and by the increase in beef and pork prices in
July.

WOOL
The quantity of wool shorn and to be shorn this year is estimated by the
BAE at 229,292,000 pounds,-which is !_-rrcenr-below last year's clip and 19 percen_!,
less than the average of the previous 0 years.
---The decline this year resulted from a 2-percent decrease in number of
sheep shorn, which is partly offset by a slightly higher average weight E!!. tieece.
The estimate of weight per fleece this year is a record 8.27 pounds.
~ production in Texas in 1953 is placed at 41,101,000 pounds, the
smallest clip since 1928 and compares with a peak of 80 1 713,000 pounds in 1943.
Wool production estimates for other southwestern states, in pounds:
Louisiana, 364,000; Oklahoma, 834,000: New Mexico, 11,790,000; and Arizona,2,667,000•
Estimates for Louisiana, New Mexico, and Arizona are up slightly from last year.
Good French Combing and staple 12-month Texas wool sold last week at
$1.75, clean basis. This is about 12 cents above the government loan-1eveI.

POULTRY
Broiler markets in Texas are holding steady, with 2 1/2- to 3-pound birds
selling generally at ~8 cents to 29 cents per pound.
Broiler chick placements on Texas farms during the week ended August 5
totaled l,ioo,ooo chicks - 22 i>ercent above the same week last year.

w. M. Pritchett
Agricultural Economist