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W EEK Number 156 Wednesday, December 21*, 1952 GRAINS A winter wheat crop fo r harvest in 1953 of only 611,11*1,000 bushels was forecast by the USDA la s t Friday. The report, which was based upon conditions as of December 1, estimated to ta l acreage sown to winter wheat in the U .S. at 55*361,000 acres - v ir tu a lly the same as was planted during each of the past 3 years and about 10 percent above the 191*1-50 average. In Texas, seeded acreage was estimated at 5*021,000 acres, the same as was seeded a year ago but about 1,000,000 less than was seeded in the f a l l of 1950. The acreage in Oklahoma was s lig h tly higher than a year ago. The USDA based i t s estimate of low yield and production on the very un favorable moisture conditions that existed throughout the winter wheat b e lt during the la te summer and f a l l . A large acreage was "dusted in" and did not germinate u n til the late November rain s. The crop of 611,11*1,000 bushels would be the smallest since 191*3 and compares with the record 1952 crop of 1,053*000,000 bushels. Conditions since December 1 have been generally favorable for development of the wheat crop, and i f moisture conditions continue favorable during the next 3 to 1* months, the current estimate undoubtedly w ill be revised upward $ however, sub s o il moisture is depleted badly throughout the wheat b e lt and unless rains are received at rather frequent in te rv a ls, the crop w ill be susceptible to rapid deple tion and to freeze damage. Despite the low estim ate, the market reacted only m ildly, with prices increasing 1 or 2 cents per bushel. With sharply lower exports in prospect, the to ta l supply of wheat for the coming year is expected to be ample, even with a short crop. The 257*000,000 bushels carried over Ju ly 1, 1952, plus the record 1952 crop of over 1,000,000,000 bushels, are expected to be more than enough to meet domestic need of around 690,000,000 bushels and exports of 325*000,000 bushels. Closing prices per bushel on the Fort Worth Grain and Cotton Exchange on Monday of th is week: wheat, No. 1 hard $2.69-1/2; oats, No. 2 white $1.12-1/2; corn, No. 2 yellow $1.87-1/1*; milo, No. 2 yellow $ 3 * per cwt. LI VESTOCK Livestock markets generally showed more strength during the past week than at any time since late November. Price changes were rather sm all, but the tone of the market was d e fin ite ly stronger. Receipts at Fort Worth and other major markets were below the previous week but s t i l l considerably higher than the comparable period a year ago. Nevertheless, late in the week the market lo st some of the gains marked up during the f i r s t 2 days of trading. Monday’ s market th is week was uneven, with c a ttle and calves holding only steady and hogs and sheep se llin g at prices s lig h tly higher than the previous week’ s close. Small receipts on Monday also were a facto r in the market. Prices per cwt. at the Fort Worth livestock market on Mon day of th is week: Good to Choice slaughter steers $20 to $26, with top quality kind quotable higher; fa t cows $13 to $16; Good and Choice slaughter calves $18 to $25; stocker calves $18 to $21; stocker cows $10 to $16; Good and Choice butcher hogs $17.50; Medium grade slaughter lambs $17 to $18; and feeder lambs $ll* to $15. The USDA f o r e c a s t t h e 1953 s p r i n g p i g c ro p a t 1*8>000,000 h e a d , 15 p e r c e n t b e lo w l a s t s p r i n g ’ s c r o p * The r e p o r t a l s o n o t e d t h a t t h e 1952 f a l l p i g c ro p was 11 p e r c e n t s m a l le r th a n t h e 1951 autumn c r o p . T o t a l h o g p r o d u c t io n i n 1953 i s now f o r e c a s t a t 10 p e r c e n t b e lo w 1 9 5 2 . T h e se e s t im a t e s a r e somewhat lo w e r t h a n had b een a n t i c i p a t e d . COTTON C o t t o n p r i c e s e x h i b i t e d some s t r e n g t h on Monday o f t h i s week f o r t h e f i r s t tim e i n s e v e r a l w e e k s. The im p ro ved to n e o f th e m ark et was g e n e r a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o a more o p t i m i s t i c f e e l i n g i n t h e t r a d e , p l u s f a i r l y h e a v y e n t r i e s i n t o th e l o a n . A l s o , p r i c e s h a ve b een a t o r b e lo w t h e lo a n r a t e f o r m ost o f t h e p a s t w e e k , and some r e c o v e r y fro m t h i s low l e v e l was a n t i c i p a t e d . A f t e r d r o p p in g t o 3 1 *U5 c e n t s p e r pound on T h u r s d a y , D ecem ber 1 8 , t h e D a l l a s p r i c e f o r l 5 / l 6 - i n c h M id d lin g a d v a n c e d t o 3 2 .2 0 c e n t s on Monday o f t h i s w e e k . D o m e s tic m i l l i n q u i r i e s d u r in g t h e p a s t week w ere f a i r l y num erous b u t c o n f i n e d m o s t ly t o c o t t o n f o r n e a r b y d e l i v e r y . I n q u i r i e s fro m f o r e i g n s o u r c e s i n c r e a s e d and w ere more num erous th a n i n many w e e k s . M o st q u a l i t i e s o f c o t t o n w ere n o t b e in g o f f e r e d f r e e l y a t c u r r e n t m a rk e t p r i c e s , a n d , e x c e p t i n C a l i f o r n i a w here g in n i n g s a r e b e in g o f f e r e d i n m o d erate v o lu m e , g ro w ers a r e sh o w in g i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t i n t h e lo a n p ro g ra m . CCC lo a n e n t r i e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e week ended Decem ber 12 w ere 127>200 b a l e s . T o t a l lo a n e n t r i e s th u s f a r t h i s s e a s o n t o t a l e d 6 U 6 ,6 0 0 b a l e s * Domes t i c m i l l c o n s u m p tio n , a c c o r d in g t o th e B u rea u o f C e n s u s , a v e r a g e d 39*000 b a le s p e r d ay d u r in g th e l|-w eek p e r io d ended Novem ber 2 9 . T h is was 2 ,0 0 0 b a le s p e r d a y h i g h e r th a n th e p r e c e d in g 5 w eeks and 1 ,5 0 0 b a le s p e r d a y h i g h e r th a n i n Novem ber 1 9 5 1 . M i l l s t o c k s o f c o t t o n w ere v i r t u a l l y t h e same a s t h e u n u s u a l ly lo w l e v e l a t t h e end o f November a y e a r a g o . - The 1 ,U 6 5 > 0 0 0 b a le s b e in g h e ld was l e s s th a n 2 m onths s u p p l y . C o t t o n g i n n i n g s i n T e x a s th r o u g h D ecem ber 12 am ounted t o 3*5 13 *5 1 3 b a l e s o u t o f th e e s t im a t e d c r o p o f 3 7 7 5 0 ,0 0 0 b a l e s . POULTRY T e x a s b r o i l e r p r i c e s w eakened somewhat d u r in g t h e p a s t w e e k , w it h p r i c e l o s s e s r a n g in g up t o 2 c e n t s p e r p o u n d . L a t e i n th e w e e k , demand w eakened and s u p p l i e s w ere f u l l y a d e q u a t e , e x c e p t on h e a v y w e ig h t b i r d s . C l o s i n g p r i c e s on F r i d a y , Decem ber 1 9 : s o u th T e x a s 30 t o 31 c e n t s p e r p o u n d ; e a s t T e x a s 28 t o 29 c e n t s p e r p o u n d , m o s t ly 28 c e n t s ; W a c o - C o r s ic a n a a r e a 28 c e n t s p e r p o u n d . The BAE r e p o r te d t h a t b r o i l e r c h i c k p la c e m e n ts on T e x a s fa rm s t o t a l e d 1 * 3 0 6 ,0 0 0 d u r in g th e week ended D ecem ber 1 3 . T h is w as 6 p e r c e n t fe w e r t h a n a week e a r l i e r b u t 9 p e r c e n t ab ove t h e c o r r e s p o n d in g week a y e a r a g o . B r o i l e r p la c e m e n ts i n t h e 11 m a jo r p r o d u c in g a r e a s o f t h e U . S . d u r in g t h e same p e r io d w ere 2 p e r c e n t more th a n a week ago and 10 p e r c e n t ab ove th e c o r r e s p o n d in g week a y e a r a g o * C a r l H. M o o r e Agricultural Economist