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W EEK

Number 156

Wednesday, December 21*, 1952

GRAINS
A winter wheat crop fo r harvest in 1953 of only 611,11*1,000 bushels was
forecast by the USDA la s t Friday. The report, which was based upon conditions as
of December 1, estimated to ta l acreage sown to winter wheat in the U .S. at
55*361,000 acres - v ir tu a lly the same as was planted during each of the past 3 years
and about 10 percent above the 191*1-50 average.
In Texas, seeded acreage was estimated at 5*021,000 acres, the same as
was seeded a year ago but about 1,000,000 less than was seeded in the f a l l of 1950.
The acreage in Oklahoma was s lig h tly higher than a year ago.
The USDA based i t s estimate of low yield and production on the very un­
favorable moisture conditions that existed throughout the winter wheat b e lt during
the la te summer and f a l l . A large acreage was "dusted in" and did not germinate
u n til the late November rain s. The crop of 611,11*1,000 bushels would be the smallest
since 191*3 and compares with the record 1952 crop of 1,053*000,000 bushels.
Conditions since December 1 have been generally favorable for development
of the wheat crop, and i f moisture conditions continue favorable during the next 3
to 1* months, the current estimate undoubtedly w ill be revised upward $ however, sub­
s o il moisture is depleted badly throughout the wheat b e lt and unless rains are
received at rather frequent in te rv a ls, the crop w ill be susceptible to rapid deple­
tion and to freeze damage.
Despite the low estim ate, the market reacted only m ildly, with prices
increasing 1 or 2 cents per bushel. With sharply lower exports in prospect, the
to ta l supply of wheat for the coming year is expected to be ample, even with a short
crop. The 257*000,000 bushels carried over Ju ly 1, 1952, plus the record 1952 crop
of over 1,000,000,000 bushels, are expected to be more than enough to meet domestic need
of around 690,000,000 bushels and exports of 325*000,000 bushels.
Closing prices per bushel on the Fort Worth Grain and Cotton Exchange on
Monday of th is week: wheat, No. 1 hard $2.69-1/2; oats, No. 2 white $1.12-1/2;
corn, No. 2 yellow $1.87-1/1*; milo, No. 2 yellow $ 3 * per cwt.
LI VESTOCK
Livestock markets generally showed more strength during the past week than
at any time since late November. Price changes were rather sm all, but the tone of
the market was d e fin ite ly stronger. Receipts at Fort Worth and other major markets
were below the previous week but s t i l l considerably higher than the comparable period
a year ago.
Nevertheless, late in the week the market lo st some of the gains marked up
during the f i r s t 2 days of trading. Monday’ s market th is week was uneven, with c a ttle
and calves holding only steady and hogs and sheep se llin g at prices s lig h tly higher
than the previous week’ s close. Small receipts on Monday also were a facto r in the
market.
Prices per cwt. at the Fort Worth livestock market on Mon day of th is week:
Good to Choice slaughter steers $20 to $26, with top quality kind quotable higher;
fa t cows $13 to $16; Good and Choice slaughter calves $18 to $25; stocker calves
$18 to $21; stocker cows $10 to $16; Good and Choice butcher hogs $17.50; Medium
grade slaughter lambs $17 to $18; and feeder lambs $ll* to $15.

The USDA f o r e c a s t t h e 1953 s p r i n g p i g c ro p a t 1*8>000,000 h e a d , 15 p e r c e n t
b e lo w l a s t s p r i n g ’ s c r o p *
The r e p o r t a l s o n o t e d t h a t t h e 1952 f a l l p i g c ro p
was 11 p e r c e n t s m a l le r th a n t h e 1951 autumn c r o p .
T o t a l h o g p r o d u c t io n i n 1953
i s now f o r e c a s t a t 10 p e r c e n t b e lo w 1 9 5 2 .
T h e se e s t im a t e s a r e somewhat lo w e r t h a n
had b een a n t i c i p a t e d .

COTTON
C o t t o n p r i c e s e x h i b i t e d some s t r e n g t h on Monday o f t h i s week f o r t h e f i r s t
tim e i n s e v e r a l w e e k s.
The im p ro ved to n e o f th e m ark et was g e n e r a l l y a t t r i b u t e d
t o a more o p t i m i s t i c f e e l i n g i n t h e t r a d e , p l u s f a i r l y h e a v y e n t r i e s i n t o th e l o a n .
A l s o , p r i c e s h a ve b een a t o r b e lo w t h e lo a n r a t e f o r m ost o f t h e p a s t w e e k , and some
r e c o v e r y fro m t h i s low l e v e l was a n t i c i p a t e d .
A f t e r d r o p p in g t o 3 1 *U5 c e n t s p e r
pound on T h u r s d a y , D ecem ber 1 8 , t h e D a l l a s p r i c e f o r l 5 / l 6 - i n c h M id d lin g a d v a n c e d
t o 3 2 .2 0 c e n t s on Monday o f t h i s w e e k .
D o m e s tic m i l l i n q u i r i e s d u r in g t h e p a s t week w ere f a i r l y num erous b u t
c o n f i n e d m o s t ly t o c o t t o n f o r n e a r b y d e l i v e r y .
I n q u i r i e s fro m f o r e i g n s o u r c e s
i n c r e a s e d and w ere more num erous th a n i n many w e e k s .
M o st q u a l i t i e s o f c o t t o n w ere
n o t b e in g o f f e r e d f r e e l y a t c u r r e n t m a rk e t p r i c e s , a n d , e x c e p t i n C a l i f o r n i a w here
g in n i n g s a r e b e in g o f f e r e d i n m o d erate v o lu m e , g ro w ers a r e sh o w in g i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t
i n t h e lo a n p ro g ra m .
CCC lo a n e n t r i e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e week ended Decem ber 12 w ere 127>200 b a l e s .
T o t a l lo a n e n t r i e s th u s f a r t h i s s e a s o n t o t a l e d 6 U 6 ,6 0 0 b a l e s *
Domes t i c m i l l c o n s u m p tio n , a c c o r d in g t o th e B u rea u o f C e n s u s , a v e r a g e d
39*000 b a le s p e r d ay d u r in g th e l|-w eek p e r io d ended Novem ber 2 9 .
T h is was 2 ,0 0 0
b a le s p e r d a y h i g h e r th a n th e p r e c e d in g 5 w eeks and 1 ,5 0 0 b a le s p e r d a y h i g h e r th a n
i n Novem ber 1 9 5 1 .
M i l l s t o c k s o f c o t t o n w ere v i r t u a l l y t h e same a s t h e u n u s u a l ly
lo w l e v e l a t t h e end o f November a y e a r a g o . - The 1 ,U 6 5 > 0 0 0 b a le s b e in g h e ld was
l e s s th a n 2 m onths s u p p l y .
C o t t o n g i n n i n g s i n T e x a s th r o u g h D ecem ber 12 am ounted t o 3*5 13 *5 1 3 b a l e s
o u t o f th e e s t im a t e d c r o p o f 3 7 7 5 0 ,0 0 0 b a l e s .

POULTRY
T e x a s b r o i l e r p r i c e s w eakened somewhat d u r in g t h e p a s t w e e k , w it h p r i c e
l o s s e s r a n g in g up t o 2 c e n t s p e r p o u n d .
L a t e i n th e w e e k , demand w eakened and
s u p p l i e s w ere f u l l y a d e q u a t e , e x c e p t on h e a v y w e ig h t b i r d s .
C l o s i n g p r i c e s on F r i d a y , Decem ber 1 9 :
s o u th T e x a s 30 t o 31 c e n t s p e r
p o u n d ; e a s t T e x a s 28 t o 29 c e n t s p e r p o u n d , m o s t ly 28 c e n t s ; W a c o - C o r s ic a n a a r e a
28 c e n t s p e r p o u n d .
The BAE r e p o r te d t h a t b r o i l e r c h i c k p la c e m e n ts on T e x a s fa rm s t o t a l e d
1 * 3 0 6 ,0 0 0 d u r in g th e week ended D ecem ber 1 3 .
T h is w as 6 p e r c e n t fe w e r t h a n a week
e a r l i e r b u t 9 p e r c e n t ab ove t h e c o r r e s p o n d in g week a y e a r a g o .
B r o i l e r p la c e m e n ts
i n t h e 11 m a jo r p r o d u c in g a r e a s o f t h e U . S . d u r in g t h e same p e r io d w ere 2 p e r c e n t
more th a n a week ago and 10 p e r c e n t ab ove th e c o r r e s p o n d in g week a y e a r a g o *

C a r l H. M o o r e
Agricultural Economist