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F EDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

Number l i t 8

OF

DA L L AS

W e d n e sd a y , O c to b e r 2 9 , 1952

COTTON
Cotton prices continued th eir downward trend which started on October 8,
following the announcement of the Department of A griculture’ s October 1 forecast
of cotton production. Prices on Monday of th is week were around 1 cent per pound
lower than a week ago and nearly 3 cents below a year ago. Middling l5/l6-inch
staple sold in Dallas on Monday, October 27, at 3U.55 cents per pound, compared
with 35.60 a week e a rlie r and 37.80 a year ago.
W eakn ess i n t h e c o t t o n m a rk e t i s g e n e r a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o s lo w n e s s i n th e
c o t t o n goo d s m a rk e t and f a i l u r e o f e x p o r t t r a d e t o d e v e l o p .
T h i s h a s been t r u e
d e s p i t e some im provem ent i n p r i c e s o f c l o t h g o o d s .
M i l l m a r g in s a r e now w id e r
th an a t a n y tim e s i n c e O c to b e r 1 9 5 1 ; h o w e v e r, d u r in g th e p a s t week o r 10 d a y s ,
th e t e x t i l e m a rk e t h a s f a i l e d t o show a s much a c t i v i t y a s m o st t r a d e r s a n t i c i p a t e d .
F a rm e rs a r e r e p o r t e d t o be h o ld in g an in c r e a s e d p r o p o r t io n o f c u r r e n t
g in n in g s .
I n t e r e s t i n t h e Govern m en t Lo an Program i s i n c r e a s i n g , b u t a c t u a l e n t r i e s
c o n tin u e r e l a t i v e l y l i g h t , w it h l e s s th a n 3!T,000~ b a l e s r e p o r t e d i n th e lo a n th r o u g h
O c to b e r 1 7 .
The D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e h a s f o r e c a s t d o m e s tic c o n s u m p tio n o f c o t t o n
d u r in g t h e c u r r e n t s e a s o n , w h ic h ends J u l y 31* 1953* a t 9 .5 m i l l i o n b a l e s and e x p o r t s
a t I4.5 m i l l i o n b a l e s .
T h is com p ares w it h a c t u a l d o m e s tic co n su m p tio n i n 1 9 5 l-5 2 ~
o f 9 .2 m i l l i o n b a le s and e x p o r t s o f 5 . 5 .
I f t h e s e e s t im a t e s p r o v e c o r r e c t , th e
c a r r y - o v e r n e x t J u l y 31 w i l l be somewhat h i g h e r th a n t h i s y e a r .

LI VESTOCK
D u r in g t h e p a s t week t h e c a t t l e m a rk e t h a s become more s t a b l e and a t
tim e s shown some s t r e n g t h , w i t h p r i c e s e d g in g upward on some c l a s s e s .
R e c e ip ts
c o n t in u e l a r g e , w i t h o v e r 7 ,0 0 0 h e ad r e c e i v e d a t F o r t W o rth on Monday o f t h i s w e e k ,
b u t demand a t t h e lo w e r p r i c e s h a s im p ro ve d and m ost o f t h e c a t t l e s o l d a t g e n e r a l l y
s te a d y p r i c e s .
H ogs d e c l in e d a b o u t $ 1 p e r c w t . d u r in g t h e week a s m a r k e tin g s i n ­
creased s e a s o n a lly .
S h e e p and lam bs w ere g e n e r a l l y s t e a d y , w it h p r i c e s u n c h a n g e d .
P r i c e s p e r c w t . a t th e F o r t W o rth L i v e s t o c k M a rk e t on M o n d ay, O c t o b e r 27*
w ere :
Good and C h o ic e s l a u g h t e r s t e e r s and h e i f e r s $23 t o $ 3 0 , u t i l i t y cow s $13
to $ 1 6 , Medium and Good s t o c k e r s t e e r y e a r l i n g s $ l5 t o $ 2 1 , Good and C h o ic e s l a u g h t e r
c a lv e s $18 t o $2U* Good and C h o ic e s t o c k e r s t e e r c a l v e s $19 t o $ 2 2 , one lo a d o f
216-pound c a l v e s s o ld a t $ 2 iw 5 0 , Good and C h o ic e b u t c h e r h o g s $ 1 8 , U t i l i t y t o C h o i c e
s l a u g h t e r lam bs $18 t o $23 * Common t o Good f e e d e r s $10 t o ~ $ l ! j .

GRAINS
G r a in p r i c e s c o n t in u e d a m ixed t r e n d d u r in g t h e p a s t w e e k , w i t h w h e a t and
o a ts m o vin g upw ard and c o r n and g r a i n sorghum s d e c l i n i n g .
T h e se s e a s o n a l t r e n d s
have b e e n g iv e n f u r t h e r im p e tu s b y th e c o n t in u e d d r o u g h t i n m a jo r w h e a t p r o d u c in g
s e c t i o n s and a bumper co rn c r o p i n th e M id w e s t.
C l o s i n g p r i c e s p e r b u s h e l on t h e F o r t W orth G r a in and C o t t o n E x c h a n g e on
Monday o f t h i s week w e r e :
N o . 1 h a rd w h e a t $ 2 .7 0 -1 / 1 4 , N o . 2 b a r l e y $ 1 .7 8 , N o . 2
w h ite o a t s $ 1 .1 3 * N o . 2 y e l lo w c o r n $ 1 .8 5 - 1 / 2 .
N o . 2 y e l l o w m i lo c l o s e d a t $3.1',0
per c w t.
The l i g h t p e a n u t c r o p i n T e x a s and Oklahom a i s e s t im a t e d t o be fro m 70 t o
80 p e r c e n t m a r k e te d . P r i c e s a r e w e l l ab ove th e lo a n r a t e , l a r g e l y a s a r e s u l t o f
th e e x t r e m e ly s m a ll c r o p .

R i c e m a r k e ts re m ain s t r o n g and some p r i c e s a d v a n c e d s l i g h t l y , r e f l e c t i n g
a c o n t in u e d a c t i v e dem and.
H a r v e s t i s v i r t u a l l y co m p le te i n T e x a s and L o u i s i a n a ,
and o f f e r i n g s a r e d e c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y .
A new h i g h p r i c e f o r t h e s e a s o n was s e t i n
T e xa s l a s t w e e k , a s a l a r g e l o t o f P a tn a b r o u g h t $ 1 1 .3 7 p e r b a r r e l .
P O U L T R Y
A N D
E G G S
P r i c e s p a id f o r T e x a s b r o i l e r s w eakened som ewhat d u r in g t h e p a s t w e e k ,
w it h o n l y t h e s o u th T e x a s a r e a h o l d i n g f i r m a t 31 t o 32 c e n t s p e r p o u n d .
The e a s t
T e x a s and Waco a r e a s w ere g e n e r a l l y q u o te d a t a b o u t 30 c e n t s p e r pound on a r e l a t i v e l y
weak m a r k e t.
The BAE r e p o r te d t h a t co m m e rc ia l b r o i l e r c h i c k s p la c e d on T e x a s farm s
d u r in g t h e week ended O c to b e r 18 w ere 8 p e r c e n t ab ove t h e p r e v io u s week and a b o u t
o n e - t h i r d h i g h e r th a n a y e a r a g o .
The number o f e g g s s e t c o n t in u e d t o i n c r e a s e and
f o r t h a t week w ere n e a r l y 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 ab o v e t h e p r e v io u s w e e k .
T h ese t r e n d s s u g g e s t the
p r o b a b i l i t y o f r e l a t i v e l y h e a v y m a r k e tin g s i n F e b r u a r y and e a r l y M arch n e x t y e a r .
T u rk e y p r i c e s w ere g e n e r a l l y u n c h a n g e d , w it h p r i c e s a t t h e fa rm f o r w e l l f i n i s h e d , b r o a d -b r e a s t e d toms q u o te d a t 29 t o 31 c e n t s p e r pound and t u r k e y h en s
a t 33 t o 36 c e n t s p e r p o u n d ♦
A t o t a l o f 1 3 ,U 2i4_,22U pounds o f t u r k e y m eat h a s been p u r c h a s e d b y t h e USDA
t o rem ove te m p o r a r y s u r p lu s e s fro m t h e m a rk e t i n some a r e a s ; 1 8 0 ,0 0 0 poun d s h a ve
been p u r c h a s e d i n T e x a s .
The USDA s t a t e s t h a t t h e s e t u r k e y s w i l l be d e l i v e r e d dur­
i n g Novem ber and D ecem ber f o r d i s t r i b u t i o n t o n o n p r o f i t s c h o o l lu n c h r o o m s .
W O O L

A N D

M O H A I R

Prices in the Boston wool market la s t week remained generally unchanged.
I n T e x a s , g r a d e d f i n e , a v e r a g e F r e n c h com bing w o o l s o l d a t p r i c e s r a n g in g fro m 69
t o 70 c e n t s p e r p o u n d , g r e a s e b a s i s .
O r i g i n a l b a g T e x a s 1 2 -m o n th s w o o l s o l d a t
a b o u t 69 c e n t s , g r e a s e b a s i s .
A fe w c a r s o f m o h a ir s o l d l a s t week i n T e x a s a t 93 and 9 3 -1 / 2 c e n t s f o r
a d u l t and $ 1 .1 8 and $ l . l 8 - l / 2 p e r pound f o r k i d .
F A R M
I N C O M E
The USDA now p r e d i c t s t h a t g r o s s fa rm incom e i n 1992 w i l l be a l i t t l e
h i g h e r th a n i n 1991 b u t t h a t n e t fa r m incom e w i l l be a b o u t th e same o r s l i g h t l y
lo w e r .
I n 1993> g r o s s fa rm incom e i s e x p e c t e d t o be s l i g h t l y lo w e r th a n i n 1 9 9 2 ,
and b e c a u s e o f f u r t h e r a n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e s i n c o s t s , n e t fa rm in com e may be a b o u t
9 p e r c e n t b e lo w 1 9 9 2 .
M I S C E L L A N E O U S
The S e c o n d A n n u a l Farm and R an ch C r e d i t S c h o o l f o r C o m m e rcia l B a n k e rs w i l l
be h e ld on th e T e x a s A . and M . C o l l e g e Cam pus, D ecem ber 7 -1 0 .
B a n k e rs w is h i n g t o
a t t e n d s h o u ld sen d t h e i r r e s e r v a t i o n s t o Dean C h a s . N . S h e p a r d s o n , T e x a s A . and M.
C o lle g e , C o lle g e S t a t i o n , T e x a s.

C a r l H. M o o r e
Agricultural Economist