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FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

Number 133

OF

DALLAS

W e d n esd a y, J u l y 1 6 , 1952

COTTON
The 19^2 U . S . c o t t o n a c r e a g e i s e s t im a t e d by t h e USDA a t 2 6 ,0 5 1 ,0 0 0 a c r e s ,
or 7 p e r c e n t l e s s th a n a y e a r a g o .
I t i s n e a r ly 2 m i l l i o n a c r e s l e s s t h a n th e 1952
g o a l o f 25 m i l l i o n a c r e s .
The a c r e a g e o f c o t t o n i n c u l t i v a t i o n i n T e x a s i s e s t im a t e d a t 1 1 ,2 3 5 *0 0 0
a c r e s , w h ic h i s 9 p e r c e n t b e lo w t h a t o f a y e a r a g o , b u t 1*2 p e r c e n t ab ove th e 191*1-50
average.
E x c e p t f o r 191*9 and 1951* t h i s y e a r ’ s a c r e a g e i s th e l a r g e s t s i n c e 1 9 3 7 .
R e d u c tio n s a r e r e p o r t e d fro m a l l p a r t s o f th e s t a t e e x c e p t th e s o u t h e a s t , th e f a r
w est and t h e n o r t h e r n P a n h a n d le . A s h a rp r e d u c t io n o c c u r r e d i n t h e s o u th H ig h P l a i n s ,
th e Low R o l l i n g P l a i n s , and t h e Low er V a l l e y .
The a c r e a g e o f A m e r ica n E g y p t i a n c o t t o n i n T e x a s i s e s t im a t e d a t 3 5 *0 0 0
a c r e s - up 1 0 ,0 0 0 ; New M e x ic o 2 0 ,0 0 0 - up 5 *0 0 0 ; and A r iz o n a 1*6,000 - up 2 2 ,0 0 0 .
S p o t c o t t o n p r i c e s e a se d downward l a s t week f o r th e t h i r d c o n s e c u t i v e w e e k .
I t was e x p e c te d t h a t t h e announcem ent o f t h e o f f i c i a l c o t t o n a c r e a g e e s t i m a t e , w h ic h
p la c e d th e f i g u r e b e lo w p r i v a t e e s t i m a t e s , w ou ld c a u s e some upward r e a c t i o n i n t h e
c o t t o n m a r k e t, b u t i t d o e s n o t a p p e a r t h a t th e announcem ent a f f e c t e d t h e m a rk e t t o
any a p p r e c i a b le d e g r e e .
I t has been ob served t h a t r e l a t i v e l y h ig h c o tto n y i e l d s p e r
a c r e a r e i n p r o s p e c t i n m o st s t a t e s and t h a t a 16 m i l l i o n b a le cro p i s s t i l l p o s s i b l e
d e s p i t e t h e r e d u c t io n i n a c r e a g e ; m o re o v e r, th e r e i s a g e n e r a l b e l i e f t h a t c o t t o n
e x p o r ts w i l l d e c l i n e n e x t s e a s o n .

GRAINS
P r i c e s o f w h e a t , c o m and sorghum g r a in s moved up on t h e F o r t W orth m a rk e t
l a s t w e e k , w h i le p r i c e s o f o a t s and b a r l e y showed l i t t l e c h a n g e .
The w ee k ’ s c l o s i n g
top p r i c e s :
N o , 1 h a r d w h e a t $ 2 .1 * 8 -l/ i* ; N o . 2 y e l lo w c o r n $ 2 .2 0 ; N o . 2 w h ite c o r n
$ 2 .6 3 ; N o . 2 w h ite o a t s $1.0 3-1 /1*$ and N o . 2 b a r l e y $ 1 .5 8 - 1 / 2 p e r b u s h e l ; w h i le N o . 2
y e llo w m ilo b r o u g h t $ 3 .2 7 p e r c w t .
The USDA r e le a s e d l a s t week i t s e s t im a t e s o f p r o d u c t io n o f a number o f 1952
g r a in cro p s i n T exas as f o llo w s :
w in t e r w h eat 1*0.1* m i l l i o n b u s h e l s , up 23 m i l l i o n
from l a s t y e a r ; c o m 3 9 .1 m i l l i o n , down 3 m i l l i o n ; o a t s 22 m i l l i o n , up 11* m i l l i o n ;
b a r le y 9 0 0 ,0 0 0 , up 1*00,000; an d r y e 1 9 6 ,0 0 0 , up 1 1 8 ,0 0 0 .
P r o d u c t io n o f m o st o f t h e s e
g r a i n s l a s t y e a r w as e x c e p t i o n a l l y lo w , and t h i s y e a r ’ s p r o d u c t io n e s t i m a t e s a r e b elo w
average.
R i c e p r o d u c t io n i n T e x a s i s f o r e c a s t a t 1 3 ,1 2 8 ,0 0 0 b a g s - a r e c o r d h i g h .
L o u i s i a n a p r o d u c t io n i s f o r e c a s t a t 1 0 ,9 2 0 ,0 0 0 b a g s , o r 3 5 0 ,0 0 0 b a g s b e lo w l a s t y e a r ’ s
crop.
The a c r e a g e o f sorghum s f o r h a r v e s t i n T e x a s t h i s y e a r i s e s t im a t e d a t
6 ,0 7 6 ,0 0 0 a c r e s v e r s u s ^ ? ,7 6 1 ,0 0 0 h a r v e s t e d i n 1951 and t h e 191*1-50 a v e r a g e o f 6 ,8 2 0 ,0 0 0
acres h a rv e ste d .
L I V E S T O C K
C a t t l e and c a l f p r i c e s reboun ded on th e F o r t W o rth m a rk e t l a s t w eek t o
r e g a in some o f t h e l o s s e s o f t h e p r e c e d in g w e e k s .
T h e re w as an im p ro ve d demand f o r
S t o c k e r s and f e e d e r s , p l u s a n i n c r e a s e d demand from p a c k e r s and s h i p p e r s .
Cows s o l d
aro un d $2 h i g h e r p e r c w t . , and s l a u g h t e r s t e e r s and y e a r l i n g s s o l d s t r o n g t o 50 c e n t s
h ig h e r .
S t o c k e r c a l v e s g a in e d $ 1 t o $3 and s l a u g h t e r c a l v e s w ere 50 c e n t s t o $ 1
o r more h i g h e r .
S t o c k e r s t e e r s and y e a r l i n g s a d v a n c e d $ 1 .
S l a u g h t e r s p r i n g lam bs
c l o s e d $1 t o $2 h i g h e r , w h i le s l a u g h t e r ewes c l o s e d 50 c e n t s t o $ 1 h i g h e r .
Hogs

opened t h e w eek w it h goo d g a i n s b u t l o s t them l a t e r i n t h e w e e k .
The USDA s a y s t h a t h o g p r i c e s , w h ic h r o s e i n May and t h e n d e c l i n e d , may
r i s e f u r t h e r t o a s e a s o n a l h i g n i n l a t e summer o r e a r l y f a l l .
The s e a s o n a l d e c l in e
t h i s f a l l may be no g r e a t e r th a n u s u a l ; p r i c e s d u r in g t h e p e r io d a r e l i k e l y t o be
a s h ig h o r h ig h e r th a n a y e a r e a r l i e r .
C a t t l e p r i c e s a r e l i k e l y t o re m a in somewhat b e lo w a y e a r e a r l i e r t h r o u ^ i
1952.
Some g a in fro m p r e s e n t l e v e l s i s e x p e c t e d f o r f e d c a t t l e e a r l y t h i s f a l l .
P r i c e s o f c a t t l e m a rk e te d fro m g r a s s p r o b a b ly w i l l f a l l s e a s o n a l l y a s m a r k e tin g s
r i s e n e a r t h e end o f t h e g r a i s i n g s e a s o n .
C o m m e r cia l m eat p r o d u c t io n i n T e x a s i n May t o t a l e d 6? m i l l i o n p o u n d s ,
a c c o r d i n g t o BAE e s t i m a t e s ; t h i s was H I p e r c e n t more th a n d u r in g May 1 9 5 1 .
P ro d u ct! 01
d u r in g t h e f i r s t 5 m onths o f t h i s y e a r t o t a l e d 355> m i l l i o n p o u n d s, 15 p e r c e n t more
th a n d u r in g t h e c o r r e s p o n d in g p e r i o d a y e a r a g o .
U . S . p r o d u c t io n i n t h e 5 month
p e r i o d w as up 6 p e r c e n t .
Summer r a n g e an d p a s t u r e f e e d p r o s p e c t s i n T e x a s h a v e fa d e d r a p i d l y i n the
p a s t month due t o h o t , d r y , w in d y w e a t h e r .
P r o b a b ly m o st o f th e r e c o v e r y made
f o l l o w i n g t h e A p r i l an d May r a i n s i s a l r e a d y l o s t .
The BAE e s t i m a t e s t h e c o n d i t i o n
o f r a n g e s i n T e x a s on J u l y 1 a t 75 p e r c e n t , com pared w it h 81 p e r c e n t a y e a r e a r l i e r ,
and a 1 0 - y e a r J u l y 1 a v e r a g e o f 85 p e r c e n t .
P O U L T R Y
A N D
E G G S
T e x a s b r o i l e r o r f r y e r m a rk e ts a d v a n ce d 2 c e n t s l a s t w e e k ; m a rk e ts h e ld
g e n e r a l l y a t 30 t o 31 c e n t s m o st o f t h e w e e k .
The w e e k ’ s c l o s i n g p r i c e s :
s o u th
T e x a s 3 0 -3 1 ; e a s t T e x a s 3 1 -3 2 ; and t h e Waco a r e a 2 9 -3 1 * m o s t l y 3 0 .
On t h e w h o le s a le m a rk e t i n F o r t W o rth l a s t w eek t o p g ra d e co m m e rcia l
f r y e r s c l o s e d a t 3 0 -3 2 c e n t s p e r p o u n d ; lo w g ra d e f r y e r s b r o u g h t 2it c e n t s down.
H eavy h e n s h e ld s t e a d y a t 16 t o 18 c e n t s ; t u r k e y h e n s a t 25 t o 28 c e n t s p e r p o u n d .
E g g p r o d u c t i on i n T e x a s i n Ju n e t o t a l e d 263 m i l l i o n v e r s u s 2it7 m i l l i o n i n
Ju n e 1951#
P r o d u c t io n i n th e f i r s t h a l f o f 1952 r e a c h e d 1 ,7 5 2 m i l l i o n , com pared w ith
1 ,6 1 5 m i l l i o n i n 1951*
E g g p r o d u c t io n i n th e f i r s t h a l f o f 1952 i n o t h e r s o u th w e s te r n s t a t e s , and
co m p a r iso n s w i t h a y e a r e a r l i e r :
L o u i s i a n a 236 m i l l i o n , up lit m i l l i o n ; O k l a h o m a 696
m i l l i o n , down 5 m i l l i o n ; New M e x ic o 69 m i l l i o n , down 2 m i l l i o n ; A r i z o n a 1+6 m i l l i o n ,
o f f 3 m illio n .
M I S C E L L A N E O U S
The Ju n e 15 BAE in d e x o f p r i c e s r e c e iv e d b y T e x a s fa r m e r s f o r a l l fa r m
p r o d u c t s i s 3l+l* t h e same a s i n M ay.
The y e a r e a r l i e r in d e x i s 3 8 0 .
The 1952 c r o p o f c r im s o n c l o v e r s e e d i n T e x a s i s e s t im a t e d a t 1 ,1 0 0 ,0 0 0
p o u n d s , c l e a n s e e d , com pared w it h 8 8 0 ,0 0 0 i n 1951*
The U . S . c r o p i s f o r e c a s t a t
2 8 ,3 1 0 ,0 0 0 p o u n d s , t h e l a r g e s t on r e c o r d .
H a i r y v e t c h a c r e a g e i n T e x a s i s e s t im a t e d a t 75*000 a c r e s , com pared w it h
1+8,000 l a s t y e a r .
Oklahom a h a s 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 a c r e s i n h a i r y v e t c h - d o u b le l a s t y e a r ’ s
la r g e a c r e a g e .
W aterm elo n p r i c e s on t h e F a r m e r ’ s M a rk e t i n D a l l a s h a v e f a l l e n s h a r p l y ;
2 5 -3 2 pound m e lo n s s o l d l a s t week a t 2 t o 2 -1 / 2 c e n t s p e r p o u n d , com pared w i t h 1+
t o 5 c e n t s tw o w eeks a g o .

W.

M.

Pritchett

Agricultural Economist