Full text of Agricultural News Letter : Vol. III, Number 11

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AGRICULTURAL
NEW S LETTER

THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF D A L L A S
Vol. Ill
GENERAL

Dallas, Texas, November 15, 1948
AGRICULTURAL

Another favorable year for agriculture is
indicated for 1949 by outlook reports pre­
pared by the United States Department of
Agriculture. The prospects for farm prices
and farm incomes in the Southwest, as in the
Nation generally, appear to be good, although
not as bright as during the last several years.
Consumer expenditures, private domestic
investments, and government spending plus
an excess of exports over imports, which are
the major forces underlying the present large
demand for farm products, are expected to
total about as large in 1949 as in 1948. As a
result, demand for farm products should con­
tinue strong next year, and prices of farm
products may average close to or slightly
lower than average 1948 levels.
Cash receipts from farm marketings in 1948
are expected to be down slightly from the
$30.2 billion received in 1947, and a further
slight decline is likely in 1949. With farmers’
gross income leveling off while many produc­
tion expenses are continuing upward, the out­
look is for a decline in net income next year.
Smaller numbers of cattle and sheep and
continued high demand for meat are likely
to cause prices of meat and meat animals in
1949 to continue above war and prewar lev­
els. Seasonal changes in prices will occur, of
course, and the increased hog marketings ex­
pected in late 1949 may cause hog prices to
drop more than they normally do at that
time of the year. Prices of beef cattle are ex­
pected to remain relatively higher than prices
of hogs because of the longer period required
to build up herds and, hence, to increase sup­
plies of beef.
Prices for milk and dairy products in 1949
probably will average about the same as this

OUTLOOK

Number 11
FOR

1949

year. Since lower feed costs are likely to en­
courage heavy feeding of dairy cows, an in­
crease in milk production is probable. The
lower feed prices in relation to milk prices,
which should result in more profitable dairy
operations, may halt the decline in numbers
of dairy cows which has been taking place
since 1944.
Egg prices are likely to average almost as
high in 1949 as in 1948. They may be slightly
higher during the first half of 1949, but the
anticipated increase in production probably
will result in somewhat lower prices in the
last quarter of the year. The more favorable
egg-feed price relationships during late 1948
and early 1949 are expected to result in a
substantial increase in the number of chickens
raised on farms next year. Farm prices of
chickens, broilers, and turkeys probably will
average lower in 1949 than this year, with
most decreases occurring during the latter
months of the year.
The general level of prices of fats and oils
is likely to be moderately lower in the year
which began in October 1948 than in the
past year, largely as a result of increased pro­
duction. Large crops of cottonseed, soybeans,
flaxseed, and peanuts will provide more than
enough oil to meet domestic needs, which, on
a per capita basis, are now at about the pre­
war level. There may be some decrease in ex­
ports, as other oil-producing areas of the
world are expanding their output and new
areas abroad are entering production. How­
ever, government price supports are likely to
prevent a major decline in prices paid to do­
mestic growers for oil-producing crops.
Prices of oats, barley, and grain sorghums
reached government support levels in August,
and corn prices (which had been high in re­

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AGRICULTURAL NEWS LETTER

lation to most other grains this summer) de­
clined sharply in recent weeks to near support
levels. Prices of all feed grains are expected
to be close to the government support levels
this fall and winter and to be unusually low
in relation to livestock prices, making it more
profitable to market feed grains through live­
stock.
In view of an expected increase in stocks
of wheat next year, wheat prices in 1949-50
may be depressed to below loan levels during
the heavy marketing season and may average
lower relative to the loan than in 1948-49.
No important changes in domestic consump­
tion or exports next year are foreseen, and a
carry-over of perhaps 275,000,000 bushels on
July 1, 1949, is likely. The recommended
goal of 71,500,000 acres of wheat for 1949
is 6,200,000 acres less than the 1948-crop
acreage, but the United States Department
of Agriculture now forecasts a 1949 crop of
79,000,000 acres.
Cotton consumption in the United States,
which dropped from 10,025,000 bales in
1946-47 to 9,347,000 bales in the past sea­
son, is likely to decline further in 1948-49.
Although exports of raw cotton may be mod­
erately larger next year, the carry-over next
August 1 may exceed 5,000,000 bales. Low­
er domestic consumption, only moderately
larger exports, and large domestic production
of cotton are expected to hold cotton prices
near support levels in 1949.
As world consumption of wool has been
running ahead of world production and
stocks of fine wools have dwindled rapidly,
it is expected that prices for fine staple wools
next year will remain at or near the present
high levels and that growers will be able to
obtain higher prices through direct selling to
mills and dealers than through the price sup­
port program.
Consumer demand for fruit next year
probably will be about the same as in 1948,
and if production exceeds this year’s belowaverage crop, prices may be somewhat lower.
Demand for truck crops through most of
1949 is expected to be about as strong as in
1948. Prices probably will average slightly
lower in most months of next year, as pro­

duction of most of these crops will likely be
somewhat larger than in 1948.
Consumer demand for potatoes of the 1949
crop is expected to be about as strong as it
has been for the 1948 crop, but prices to
farmers probably will be lower in view of
the possibility that support prices for pota­
toes in 1949 will be set lower than the 90
percent of parity which applies to the 1948
crop.
Total farm production costs, which have
mounted continuously over a decade, reached
a level in 1948 more than three times the
prewar average and are likely to be even
higher in 1949. Feed costs next year are ex­
pected to be lower than in 1948, but farmers
will pay higher prices for most other goods
they buy. Farm wage rates are now between
5 and 10 percent higher than a year ago, and
this high level is expected to continue through
the balance of 1948 and through 1949. Prices
of farm machinery and motor fuel, which are
now at record levels, are expected to remain
high next year. Costs of most field seeds will
be higher during the remainder of 1948 and
the spring of 1949 than a year earlier, as pro­
duction of seed was small this season. The
supplies of fertilizers, insecticides, and fungi­
cides are expected to be sufficient to meet re­
quirements next year, and prices are expected
to be near levels prevailing in 1948. Prices of
lumber, metal supplies, and other materials
used in building are expected to remain high
in 1949.
Despite high operation costs and declining
commodity prices of some farm products,
farming operation should continue profitable
for farmers who manage their enterprises
skillfully. Farmers who take full account of
cost-price relationships, maintain flexible
farming units so as to be able to shift crops
and livestock in accordance with better in­
come opportunities, and use appropriate
amounts of fertilizer and seed wisely, should
profit in 1949 and in the years ahead.
FARM MANAGEMENT

Farmers Warned Against Brucellosis "Cures"
Farmers and ranchers should not be misled
by advertisements of drugs that claim to cure
brucellosis ("Bangs Disease”), for there is no

AGRICULTURAL NEWS LETTER

easy way to stamp it out, says a report issued
by the American Veterinary Medical Asso­
ciation. The report states that among several
alleged drug treatments, not one is endorsed
by the veterinary profession. Claims of "cur­
ative power” for these products are based on
the thinnest kind of evidence, and it is the
consensus of reputable scientists that these
so-called cures are actually serving to per­
petuate the disease.
Brucellosis causes abortion, sterility, and
lowered milk production, resulting in a loss
of well over a million dollars yearly to cattle
and hog raisers of this Nation. The American
Veterinary Medical Association urges farmers
to work closely with their local veterinaries
in establishing brucellosis control programs
within individual herds and to give fullest
cooperation to state and federal projects de­
signed to eradicate the disease.
Chemicals Control Peach Tree Borer
Some suggestions of ways of controlling
peach tree borers, which start working in the
fall of the year, are made by C. A. King, as­
sociate extension entomologist of A. & M.
College of Texas, in a recent press release.
One method, according to Mr. King, is to
clear the grass and weeds from around the
tree trunk and to build the ground level up
slightly. One-half pint of diluted ethylene
dichloride emulsion should be poured on the
ground around the mature bearing trees, and
about one-fourth of a pint around younger
trees two to four year old, after which the
liquid should be covered with a few shovels
of dirt. Directions for diluting the solution
are to be found on the container. The ma­
terial may be applied at any time after the
leaves shed in the fall until early April if the
temperature is above 54° and the ground is
not too wet.
Another material suggested by Mr. King
for control of the peach tree borer is paradicholorobenzene crystals. In the application
of these crystals, the grass and weeds should
be cleared from around the tree and the crys­
tals sprinkled in a circle about two inches
from the base of the tree. From one to one
and one-half ounces of these crystals are

3

needed for mature trees, while three-fourths
of an ounce is recommended for trees three
to five years old and smaller quantities for
younger trees. The crystals should be covered
with soil as soon as they are applied, but they
should be removed after about six weeks, ac­
cording to Mr. King. The best time of the
year to apply these crystals is late October
and November.
"X Disease" of Cattle Spreading
Cure Unknown
The cattle disease known as hyperkeratosis
or "X Disease” has been reported from at least
26 widely scattered states since it was first
discovered in New York in 1941. Little is
known about the prevention, transmission, or
cure of the disease, but it may become a
serious threat to the cattle industry. The dis­
ease, which is most likely to occur in late
winter or spring, is thought by some investi­
gators to be related to nutrition. The chief
symptoms, as outlined by cattle husbandrymen, are watery discharges from the nose and
eyes, poor appetites, thickening of the skin
and possible loss of hair, diarrhea in the lat­
ter stages, and delayed pregnancies. Research
is under way to discover the means of spread­
ing and to determine a treatment for infected
animals.
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS

New Insecticide Stops Caterpillar Pest
on Cotton
The invasion of Salt River Valley cotton
fields in Arizona by the salt marsh caterpil­
lars has been brought under control by the
use of a new insecticide developed by the
Bureau of Entomology and Plant Quarantine,
United States Department of Agriculture.
This new insecticide is a dust mixture com­
posed of 15 percent chlorinated camphene
plus 5 percent DDT in 40 percent sulphur.
Applications of the insecticide at the rate of
20 pounds per acre have reduced infestation
to very low numbers.
DDD Proves More Satisfactory Than DDT
Scientists have discovered recently that
some of the newer materials which are very

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AGRICULTURAL NEWS LETTER

effective against destructive insects are also
harmful to man and warm-blooded animals.
As a direct result of these findings, the United
States Department of Agriculture recently is­
sued warnings with regard to their use. Sev­
eral of the newer insecticides, however, pos­
sess a higher degree of safety plus a wide
range of effectiveness against insects. One of
these materials is DDD, known otherwise as
Rhothane, which is said to be 10 times safer
than DDT. This alone makes DDD consid­
erably more desirable than DDT in all insec­
ticidal applications, particularly those in the
agricultural field; but DDD is also superior
against certain pests, such as tomato hornworms, corn earworms, and various insects
that attack certain forage and fruit crops.
Results of tests show that Rhothane, or DDD,
is also effective in controlling such parasitic
insects of livestock as horn flies, lice, and
ticks.
--------New Poultry Strain Developed in Oklahoma
A new strain of White Plymouth Rocks
named Oklahoma Dominant Whites has been
developed at the Oklahoma Agricultural Ex­
periment Station. The new strain has a large
body, makes rapid growth with good feed
economy, and produces a desirable meat-type
bird. They are especially suited to broiler
production when crossed with other heavy
breeds, especially New Hampshires.
FARM PRICES

Purchase Agreements Offered For
1948-Crop Range Grass Seeds
Purchase agreements are available to farm­
ers for 1948-crop range grass seeds, according
to an announcement by the Production and
Marketing Administration of the United
States Department of Agriculture. The pur­
pose of the program is to encourage farmers
to increase the harvest of this year’s range
grass seeds, which play an important part in
the soil conservation program of southwestern
farms and ranches.
The following base prices per pound are
offered for high-quality seed: Little and Big
Bluestem, 20 cents; Sand Bluestem, 25 cents;
Blue Grama, 15 cents; Side-oats Grama, 20
cents; Switchgrass, 20 cents; Sand Lovegrass

and Weeping Lovegrass, 50 cents; Yellow Indiangrass, 25 cents; Buffalograss, 3 5 cents.
Purchase agreements will be available from
time of harvest through February 28, 1949,
in all states and counties where the seeds are
produced.
FARM REAL ESTATE

Farm Sales in Texas at High Level
Forced Sales Down
Forty-seven of every 1,000 farms in Texas
were either voluntarily sold or traded during
the 12 months ended March 15, 1948, ac­
cording to a recent report by the United
States Department of Agriculture. This rate,
which has declined gradually since the peak
of 58 per 1,000 farms was reached in Texas
in 1944, compares with 49 out of each 1,000
in the United States. Farms changing hands
in Texas because of forced sales and related
defaults during the 12 months ended March
15 constituted only 1.8 per 1,000 farms, the
lowest since the peak of 32.8 per 1,000 was
reported in 1933. Trends in other states of
the Southwest were similar to those in Texas.
COMMODITY NOTES

New Uses for Sweet Potatoes Sought
New uses for sweet potatoes, such as in the
production of breakfast foods, cakes, and
cookies, will be explored by the Alabama Ag­
ricultural Experiment Station in cooperation
with the United States Department of Agri­
culture under a recently approved research
project. The high food value of sweet pota­
toes has long been recognized, and several
new sweet potato products have been manu­
factured and placed on the market in very
limited volume. The new project also pro­
poses to increase the scale of output of these
products. If these new products turn out
commercially practical, farmers stand to gain
new markets for sweet potatoes.
United States Department of Agriculture
Citrus Marketing Study Initiated in Europe
A study of the citrus fruit and citrus mar­
keting situation in western Europe has been
initiated by the Office of Foreign Agricul­
tural Relations under the Research and Mar­
keting Act program of the Department of
Agriculture.