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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - - • gric October 27, 1961 AS THE WEATHER CHANGES from summer to fall, farm acti‘iities take on a new flavor. In the Corn Belt the pace of activity begins to quicken as crops mature and farmers begin comparing notes on yields and deciding whether to sell crops now, store for sale on a later market or feed to livestock. At the same time, ranchers in the West are rounding up, selling and shipping feeder cattle. However, weather conditions vary from one year to the next and this together with the flexibility of most livestock operations bring significantly different _ actions in even heavily seasonal activities. Thus, each new feeding year provides a unique experience for the cattle feeding operation and two notable differences are apparent this year. First, prices of feeder steers reached a seasonal price low in July and have been above last year's levels since August. This is in contrast with lows in October last year and in December 1959. Second, 'shipments of feeder cattle were somewhat higher earlier this fall than in 1960 but somewhat smaller than in 1959. • tter Number 630 FEEDER CATTLE AND CALVES RECEIVED 8 Corn Belt States thousand head 1,400 1961 IMO OD INN MID 1,200 - 1960 - 19593z DEPT, OF AGRICULTLIZE. 1,000 LIBRAFY NOV,6 1981 800 SZRIAL RECORV 600 400 4.110 • • •••ft I I Mar. FEEDER STEER PRICES average of good and choice 500-800 lb. at Kansas City June Sept. Dec. Shipments of feeder cattle into eight North Central states in October dropped 7 per cent below last year bringing the total since midyear within 2 per cent of the 1960 total. In the three months of July, August and September, the three western Corn Belt states of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska reported an increase in total shipments of more than 20 per cent—enough to offset the decline in the other states. dollars per cwt. 31 29 Cattle on Feed by Weight October 1 1960 1961 27 Per cent change (thousand head) 25 Mar. • June Sept. Dec. One important element in the strength of feeder cattle prices last fall and again this summer and fall has been the excellent conditions in the southwestern wheat areas. With the necessity of removing any lush growth of wheat pasture in the fall to obtain maximum yields the following year, wheat farmers can afford to outbid the Corn Belt feeder for stocker cattle. An additional factor this year is that wheat acreage does not have to be reduced for compliance with the new program until late next spring, therefore, wheat growers may graze all available wheat pasture during the winter. 315 Under 500 pounds 991 500-699 pounds 1,767 700-899 pounds 1,690 900-1,099 pounds 364 1,100 pounds and over • • 5,127 Total, 26 states 372 1,039 2,001 1,785 354 5,551 +18 +5 +13 +6 —3 +8 Cattle on feed on October 1 provide a clue to marketings and prices of fed cattle in the months ahead. Since there is only a 4 per cent increase in cattle weighing over 900 pounds in feed lots compared with year earlier, prices of fed cattle may strengthen into the early winter. However, a 13 per cent increase in the number of cattle on feed weighing 700 to 899 pounds would indicate large marketings and pressure on fed cattle prices in the late winter and early spring. Research Department