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313 Federal Eleierve Dank of Chicago • January 6, 1967 CONSUMPTION OF MEAT per person in the United States rose during 1966 despite sharply higher prices. Retail prices during the first 10 months averaged nearly 10 percent above the similar period in 1965, with all classes of meat being higher. Nevertheless, the per capita consumption of "red" meat and poultry rose about 4 pounds to nearly 212 pounds. This was only about 1 pound below the record high in 1964. Allowing for year-to-year and cyclical fluctuations, consumption of meat in the United States has shown an upward trend during the past several years. Poultry consumption has nearly tripled since the Thirties. Consumption of beef has more than doubled in the same period. Since the mid-Forties, however, a downward trend has been shown in pork consumption. Changes during the past year were generally consistent with these longer-term trends. Meat Consumption Per Capita Continues- to Rise Year • Red meat All Lamb and Beef Veal mutton Pork Total Poultry meat (pounds)a 82 1955 85 1956 1957 85 1958 81 1959 81 1960 85 1961 88 1962 89 95 1963 1964 100 99 1965 1966c- 102 9 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 °Figures rounded. SOURCE: USDA. 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 67 67 61 60 67 65 62 64 66 65 59 57 bPreliminary. 163 167 159 152 160 161 161 164 171 175 167 168 26 30 31 34 35 34 38 37 37 38 41 44 189 197 190 186 195 195 199 201 207 213 208 212 °Estimated. Poultry accounted for much of the increase in meat consumption in 1966 because large supplies were available and red meats were relatively high priced. Consumption of poultry rose to a record of about 44 pounds per capita—up nearly 3 pounds from 1965. Consumption of broilers accounted for most of the increase although turkey consumption was also higher—a record 7.9 pounds per person compared with 7.4 pounds a year earlier. Beef consumption also rose to a record level during 1966, reflecting sharp increases in both domestic production and imports from the preceding year and also the continued very strong consumer demand for beef. Domestic production of beef increased about 4 percent from 1965, and imports averaged nearly 32 percent higher in the first three quarters of 1966 than in the comparable year-earlier period. Calf slaughter was down again during 1966 because of a smaller calf crop and the continued trend toward feedlot fattening. As a result, veal consumption continued its downward trend. • in7.7 NubTber 890 Pork production declined sharply during the first half of 1966, and although higher prices led to a sharp increase in output in the second half, production for the entire year still fell short of the previous year's level. With, the further increase in population, consumption declined a little over 1 pound per person to 57 pounds, the lowest since the Thirties. Production of lamb and mutton also declined slightly, but larger imports boosted total supplies. Consumption per person rose about 8 percent to 4 pounds. For 1967, little change is indicated from last year's total consumption, but within the major categories beef consumption is expected to decline while increases are expected for pork and poultry. A smaller beginning-ofyear inventory of cattle and an expected reduction in slaughter, as producers increase breeding herds, suggests a rather sharp cutback in domestic beef production. Beef imports are likely to increase further in 1967 but not enough to offset the anticipated decline in domestic production. The decrease is likely to be most evident for processed beef products, but as the year progresses fresh beef consumption is also likely to fall off. Poultry, however, is expected to be In plentiful supply again this year, and consumption likely will increase to a new record. Production of poultry has been stimulated by increased demand and the resulting higher prices. The rapid expansion which began during the latter half of 1965 and continued through 1966 may extend well into this year. Broiler marketings in the first guarter are expected to continue above a year earlier, following the larger chick hatchings in recent months. Turkey supplies also are likely to show a further increase. The larger supplies of poultry meats have already resulted in lower prices and this may tend to limit further expansion as the year progresses, but any turnabout in production would probably be late in the year. Pork consumption also may be larger than last year's low level. Hogs on farms as of December 1 (the bulk of which will .be marketed during the first half of 1967) numbered about 9 percent above a year earlier. Although a survey of farmers indicates a reduced rate of expansion during the second half of 1967, pork supplies are likely to continue to be more plentiful than a year earlier. Roby L. Sloan Agricultural Economist
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