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1 THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CIDCAGO AGRICULTURAL LETTER February 29, 1952 Cash receipts from farm marketings are running slightly above the year-ago level. Prices average about the same but the volume of marketings is a little larger. Receipts t otaled 2.6 billion dollars in January, 1.9 billion in February. Net farm income in 1951 is estimated at 14.9 billion dollars, 17 per cent above t he postwar low in 1950 but 12 per cent below the 1947 record. Due to rising prices, however, purchasing power of farm income was only 8 per cent above 1950 and was lower than in any year from 1942 through 1948. Detailed data for the U.S. and District states are presented on the back of this letter. Weakness in connnodity markets continues to be of much concern. Will this situation continue indefinitely or may it be expected to run its course within the near future? Livestock market analysts have come up with somewhat different views with respect to the hog market outlook. The continued heavy marketings and low prices through February lead some t o expect that a pick-up in marketings of fall pigs will hold prices near present levels t hrough March, and into April. Another view, however, suggests that the large marketings i n recent weeks should be followed by a substantially smaller volume in March and that "hog prices will rise sharply" at that time. Irrespective of these short-run prospects, t here is general agreement that prices in late summer will be well above the current leve~ possibly reaching $23 to $24 in August and September. The cattle market is also a source of much uncertainty. Iowa State College economists, however, report that "the typical pattern in a soft corn year is for cattle to bunch up on the market in late winter." They predict that "corn fed cattle probably will be scarce and high priced next summer." With prospects for a good 1952 corn crop, they anticipate a substantial volume of short-term feeding this summer and increased marketings and r educed prices for fed cattle by late fall. Meat production continues well above the year-ago volume in federally inspected plants due mostly to the large hog slaughter. Production in the second and third weeks in February was 22 and 14 per cent larger than in the corresponding weeks of 1951. Imports of livestock and fresh meat from Ca.nada have been embargoed due to an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Saskatchewan. The embargo applies also to hay and straw but not to grains. In the year ending July 1951, the U.S. imported about 100 million pouriis of fresh and frozen meat from Canada. Thus, the embargo will have only a minor effect on domestic meat supplies. Price support for the 1952 ~ crop will be $L6o a bushel, or higher if the parity price rises between now and October. The support for soybeans has been set at $2.56 a bushel, compared with $2.45 for the 1951 crop . .Supports announced previously for other important 1952 crops are: $0.78 per bushel for oats, $1.22 for barley, and $1.42 for r ye. Support has been announced also for 1952 crop of dry edible beans which, for all classes, will provide a national average of about 85 per cent of the January 15 parity. Wool will be supported at 90 per cent of the April 1 parity price through the provision ofloans to growers rather than the buying program used in recent years. No. 133 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Ernest T. Baughman .Agricultural Economist Research Department FARM INCOME AND NONFARM INCOME, UNITED STATES 1950 AND 1951 1950 19511 Million Dollars Million Dollars Cash receipts from farm marketings ........... . Government payments t ,o farmers ............... . Home consumption of farm products ............ . Rental value of farm dwellings ............... . 28,773 283 2,344 1,332 32,792 286 2,738 1,588 +14.o Gross farm income ........................ . Farm ~oduction expenses ..................... . 32,732 -20z924 12,708 750 2,006 15,464 4z700 20,164 1981.204 218,368 37,404 -22z475 14,929 1,645 2,178 18,752 5,000 23,752 222z688 246,440 +14.3 +12.2 Item Farm operators' realized net income ...... . Net change in farm inventories ............... . Farm wages of laborers on farms .............. . Net income of farm population from farming. Income of farm population from nonfarm sources. Income of farm population from all sources. Income of nonfarm population ................. . Total national income .................... . Average incane per capita: +1.1 ..i7.5 +119.3 "'8.6 +21.3 +6.4 +17.8 +12.4 +12.9 Dollars 829 1,563 1,445 1,020 1,707 1,603 .............................. Change +16.8 +19.2 Dollars Fa.rm population from all sources Nonfarm population ........................... . Total population Per Cent ½>z-eliminary. SOURCE: Bureau of .Agricultural Econcmics, U.S. Department of Agriculture. CASH ~EIPI'S FROM FARM MARKETINGS JANUARY-DECEMBER 1950-51 (Million dollars) Livestock and Products 1950 1951 Total Crops 1950 1951 1950 1951 1,052. 1,279 686 738 1,738 2,018 706 271 863 976 1,169 305 1,734 2,086 381 313 2,115 2,399 408 660 498 252 274 772 1,048 852 138 117 969 1,186 u.s. . ........ 16,197 19,609 12,575 13,182 28,773 32,791 Illinois ..... Indiana ...... Iowa ......... Michigan ..... Wisconsin .... SOURCE: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bureau of _A gricultural Economics, USDA.
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