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2.0 11 9
F3 13

DC -RANCH

S. DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE
HATINAL AGRICULTURAL LIBRARY
MAR 19 1970

Federal Eleserve DanIt of Chicago -

•

CURREYDEIVI RECORDS

1CA1

August 22, 1969

PRODUCTION OF CORN AND SOYBEANS this year
is expected to be slightly below 1968 levels. For corn the current estimate is 4.3 billion bushels, about 1 percent less than
the 1968 harvest. Soybean production is indicated to be 2 percent below last year's record crop. If production of beans does
not exceed the indicated level, it would be the first time since
1962 that it did not increase over th.eprevious year.
The indicated average yield for corn is a record 78.7
bushels per acre—slightly higher than last year. Harvested acres
will likely be 2 percent less than last year due to the Government's feed grain program and unusually wet weather during
the planting season in many areas.
The adverse Spring weather which delayed and shortened
the corn planting season likely helped boost acreage- of soybeans this year—up more than 2 percent from last year's record. However, the indicated average yield of 25.5 bushels per
acre is over a bushel less than last year although greater than
the average for 1965-67.

•

In states of the Seventh District, corn and soybean production is expected to decline relatively more than for the nation, with corn down about 4 percent and soybeans about 3
percent.
Corn acreage in each state is down with total acreage for
the district 3 percent less than in 1968. Substantial declines
in yields are indicated for Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In
Iowa, yields are forecast at 84 bushels per acre-9 bushels less
than the record set in 1968 and approximately 3 bushels per
acre less than the 1965-67 average. In Wisconsin and Michigan
yields are expected to fall 5 and 8 bushels respectively from
their 1968 peaks. Unseasonably cool weather and excess moisture are largely responsible for the sharp drop in yields in these
states. Yields in Illinois and Indiana, on the other hand, are
expected to average 6 and 9 bushels an acre above their relatively low 1968 levels. As a result, farmers in Indiana are exCorn Yields Expected Lower
in Some Seventh District States
1968
1969*
(bustzels per acre)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Wisconsin .
United States

89
85
93
76
93
78.5

•
*Estimate as of August 1, 1969.

95
94
84 '
68
78
78.7

.Change
(percent)

tt r
Number 1027

pected to produce over 8 percent more corn in 1969 while
production in Illinois is indicated to be up approximately 4
percent from last year.
Because of lower yields, soybean production in the
Seventh District states is also expected to decline relatively
more than for the nation. The August 1 estimate was nearly 7
percent smaller than last year's crop. Lower yields are expected in all five states. Poorest results are indicated in Iowa
where late plantings and excess moisture may lower yields as
much as 5 bushels per acre from last year's record high.
Futures prices of December corn have declined about 10
cents per bushel since mid-July reflecting recently improved
weather and crop conditions. Current demand for corn continues strong with the current price averaging almost 20 cents
per bushel above the year earlier level.
Prices are expected to continue well above year-ago levels
until harvest. Feed use is up from a year ago. Exports of corn
during the second half are almost certain to rebound from their
depressed level during the first half of the marketing year when
the dock strike slowed winter shipments. The latest information indicates shipments in the first two months of the second
half(April and May)are running 3 percent ahead of last year.
However,the recent devaluation of the French franc may
give new impetus to the already sharp rise in exports of feed
grains from France—up 45 percent over the July-March period
of a year ago. In addition, a large surplus of wheat has led to
increased use of wheat as feed thus increasing competition in
the market for feed grains.
The outlook for soybean prices is less favorable than
that for corn. The lowering of the support price for new crop
beans from $2.50 per bushel for number 2 grade to $2.25 per
bushel from number 1 grade should encourage domestic use
and exports. Nevertheless, the lower support price and ex
pected record carry-over of old crop beans has resulted in November futures prices at Chicago falling about 17 cents a bushel below last year's harvest season lows.
Dennis B. Sharpe
Agricultural Economist