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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, FRIDAY, MAY 15, 2020 ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, APRIL 2020 Release Number: CB20-69 Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information on the compilation of this month's report, see <COVID-19 FAQs>. May 15, 2020 — The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2020: Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales from Previous Month ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. April 2020 $403.9 billion -16.4% March 2020 (revised) $483.5 billion -8.3% Next release: June 16, 2020 * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. Data adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey, May 15, 2020. 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 February Total March Ex Auto Auto April Gen Mer Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey, May 15, 2020 Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, a decrease of 16.4 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 21.6 percent (± 0.7 percent) below April 2019. Total sales for the February 2020 through April 2020 period were down 7.7 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2020 to March 2020 percent change was revised from down 8.4 percent (± 0.4 percent) to down 8.3 percent (± 0.3 percent). Retail trade sales were down 15.1 percent (± 0.4 percent) from March 2020, and 17.8 percent (± 0.7 percent) below last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 89.3 percent (± 1.8 percent) from April 2019, while nonstore retailers were up 21.6 percent (± 1.4 percent) from last year. Data Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch 301-763-2713 eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov Media Inquiries Public Information Office 301-763-3030 pio@census.gov General Information The May 2020 Advance Monthly Retail report is scheduled for release on June 16, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: <www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The full text and tables of this release can be found at <www.census.gov/retail/>. Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales estimates were revised on April 27, 2020 based on the results of the 2018 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the Service Annual Survey. The Annual Revision of Monthly Retail and Food Services showing revised estimates can be found on our website at </https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/benchmark/2020/html/annrev20.html/>. EXPLANATORY NOTES The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,500 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Survey Description The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,500 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. For each detailed industry, we compute a ratio of current-toprevious month weighted sales using data from units for which we have obtained usable responses for both the current and previous month. For each detailed industry, the advance total sales estimates for the current month is computed by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS) at the appropriate industry level. Total estimates for broader industries are computed as the sum of the detailed industry estimates. The link relative estimate is used because imputation is not performed for most nonrespondents in MARTS. For a limited number of nonresponding companies that have influential effects on the estimates, sales may be estimated based on historical performance of that company. The monthly estimates are benchmarked to the annual survey estimates from the Annual Retail Trade Survey once available. The estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: <www.census.gov/retail>. Data Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch 301-763-2713 eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov Media Inquiries Public Information Office 301-763-3030 pio@census.gov Reliability of Estimates Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.753 x 0.9 percent or ±1.6 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.4 percent to +2.8 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.753 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error. Weather Information For information on the impact of weather events on the compilation of this report, please see the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on our website at: <www.census.gov/retail/marts_weather_faqs.html> Data Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch 301-763-2713 eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov Media Inquiries Public Information Office 301-763-3030 pio@census.gov RESOURCES API The Census Bureau’s application programming interface lets developers create custom apps to reach new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever before. <www.census.gov/developers/> FRED Mobile App Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-mobile/> for both Apple and Android devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators. ### * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. Data Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Retail Indicator Branch 301-763-2713 eid.retail.indicator.branch@census.gov Media Inquiries Public Information Office 301-763-3030 pio@census.gov Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) 1 NAICS code 4 Month Total % Chg. 2020 2019 Kind of Business Retail & food services, total ……………………………….………..………..1,844,720 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 1,500,701 Total (excl. gasoline stations) …………………………. 1,711,183 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts & gasoline stations) ………………………. 1,367,164 Retail …..…………………………….……….. 1,641,880 4 GAFO ………………………....……...……...…………..………..……….. (*) Not Adjusted 2020 3 Apr. Mar. (a) (p) 2 Adjusted 2019 Feb. (r) Apr. Mar. Apr. (a) 3 2020 Mar. (p) 2019 Feb. (r) Apr. (r) Mar. (r) -4.3 -2.4 -3.5 401,451 331,453 376,681 481,539 479,868 509,413 515,694 403,946 483,476 527,273 515,296 398,645 382,009 406,257 405,849 335,414 405,274 422,044 413,217 447,975 443,605 466,269 474,734 379,373 448,981 485,971 472,324 512,602 409,909 470,505 -1.2 -2.5 (*) 306,683 368,993 (*) 365,081 434,017 94,468 345,746 417,777 96,592 363,113 364,889 310,841 445,959 449,507 371,585 102,862 106,558 (*) 370,779 437,561 97,909 380,742 370,245 461,914 452,220 109,360 109,035 367,812 449,925 108,742 103,156 109,845 95,035 101,593 76,429 82,023 8,121 8,252 68,532 61,847 (NA) (*) 78,202 71,056 (NA) 7,146 105,229 102,079 97,423 94,094 (NA) (NA) 7,806 7,985 102,693 94,681 (NA) 8,012 441 4411, 4412 44111 4413 Motor vehicle & parts dealers …….………..344,019 Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 315,132 New car dealers ……………….……….. (*) Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…………….. (*) -11.6 -12.1 (*) (*) 69,998 63,146 (*) (*) 82,894 75,462 59,473 7,432 97,859 90,701 74,033 7,158 442 4421 4422 Furniture & home furn. stores ……………..……….. 29,585 Furniture stores …………………..………..……….. (*) Home furnishings stores ………..……….. (*) -18.5 (*) (*) 3,159 (*) (*) 7,978 4,322 (S) 9,191 5,035 4,156 9,360 4,863 4,497 9,846 5,325 4,521 3,301 (NA) (NA) 7,994 (NA) (NA) 10,133 (NA) (NA) 9,853 (NA) (NA) 9,787 (NA) (NA) 443 Electronics & appliance stores …………….. 24,149 -17.4 2,428 6,767 7,218 6,900 7,675 2,827 7,168 8,056 8,042 8,105 444 4441 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers…………………….………..……….. 123,718 Building mat. & sup. dealers …………….. (*) 4.4 (*) 35,548 (*) 33,119 28,860 27,164 23,883 35,122 30,152 30,900 26,709 31,996 (*) 33,148 29,122 33,314 29,233 31,884 28,127 31,654 27,678 445 4451 4453 Food & beverage stores…………….……….. 274,454 Grocery stores …………………..………..……….. 248,411 Beer, wine & liquor stores ……………….. (*) 12.7 13.4 (*) 69,984 63,318 (*) 79,897 72,612 5,562 60,983 54,814 4,533 61,781 55,315 4,580 62,935 56,503 4,673 70,953 63,958 (*) 81,650 73,718 6,065 64,329 57,337 5,145 63,326 56,502 4,925 63,158 56,334 4,945 446 44611 Health & personal care stores …….………..117,231 Pharmacies & drug stores ……………….. (*) 0.1 (*) 26,470 (*) 31,968 27,814 28,746 23,934 29,671 24,806 29,997 24,577 26,710 (*) 31,496 27,676 30,006 24,802 29,820 24,707 29,907 24,775 447 Gasoline stations ……………………………..……….. 133,537 -13.3 24,770 33,564 36,263 43,144 40,960 24,573 34,495 41,302 42,972 42,097 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores …………………………….…..………..……….. 48,409 -37.5 2,300 10,684 18,813 21,416 21,953 2,371 11,209 22,135 22,246 22,338 (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) (*) 266 1,588 4,122 1,726 527 2,797 7,557 2,873 737 3,604 8,770 3,243 642 3,585 9,070 3,552 (*) (*) (NA) (*) 282 1,566 (NA) 1,687 644 3,399 (NA) 3,161 675 3,426 (NA) 3,313 667 3,474 (NA) 3,376 44811 44812 44814 4482 Men's clothing stores …………………….. (*) Women's clothing stores ………..……….. (*) Family clothing stores …………………….. (*) Shoe stores ………………………………..……….. (*) 451 Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores …………………….. 19,725 452 4521 4529 45291 45299 General merchandise stores……….………..……….. 217,846 Department stores ………………….………..31,156 Other general merch. stores…. ..……….. (*) Warehouse clubs & supercenters………………….………..………..(*) All oth. gen. merch. stores…………….. (*) 453 Miscellaneous store retailers ……..……….. 38,219 -3.0 454 4541 Nonstore retailers …………………..………..……….. 270,988 Elect. shopping & m/o houses ….……….. (*) 13.8 (*) 722 Food services & drinking places ……….. -16.6 32,458 202,840 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. -15.5 3,176 5,169 5,573 6,191 6,305 3,422 5,517 6,714 6,700 6,588 0.2 -19.9 (*) 48,948 5,708 (*) 62,202 7,830 54,372 53,811 9,139 44,672 56,815 10,456 46,359 58,619 10,645 47,974 50,834 6,085 (*) 64,159 8,563 55,596 59,895 11,013 48,882 59,746 11,478 48,268 59,467 11,438 48,029 (*) (*) (*) (*) 46,450 7,922 38,426 6,246 39,548 6,811 41,241 6,733 (*) (*) 47,446 8,150 41,996 6,886 41,325 6,943 41,159 6,870 7,464 9,734 10,469 10,736 10,236 7,683 10,208 11,877 11,077 10,825 74,748 (*) 70,041 62,550 61,687 53,979 61,667 54,612 60,236 52,458 78,383 (*) 72,315 65,292 68,924 61,620 64,475 57,185 63,306 55,985 47,522 62,091 63,454 66,187 32,361 45,915 65,359 63,076 62,677 (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (S) Estimate does not meet publication standards because of high sampling variability (coefficient of variation is greater than 30%), poor response quality (total quantity response rate is less than 50%), or other concerns about the estimate's quality. (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, May 15, 2020. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>. Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Percent Change1 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020 Advance Mar. 2020 Preliminary through from -- from -- Apr. 2020 from -Nov. 2019 Feb. 2019 through through Jan. 2020 Apr. 2019 Kind of Business NAICS code Mar. 2020 (p) Retail & food services, total ………………………………..…………..………….. -16.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ….. -17.2 Total (excl. gasoline stations) …………………………. -15.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts & gasoline stations) ……………………….………….. -16.2 Retail ………………………..………..………….. Apr. 2019 (r) Feb. 2020 (r) Mar. 2019 (r) -21.6 -18.8 -19.7 -8.3 -4.0 -7.6 -5.7 -1.1 -4.6 -10.5 -7.9 -9.5 -7.7 -5.4 -6.6 -16.0 -2.6 0.8 -6.4 -3.7 -15.1 -17.8 -5.3 -2.7 -8.2 -5.5 441 4411, 4412 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………….. Auto & other motor veh. dealers … -12.4 -13.0 -32.9 -34.3 -25.7 -27.1 -23.8 -25.0 -20.5 -21.4 -17.2 -17.8 442 Furniture & home furn. stores ………………….. -58.7 -66.5 -21.1 -18.3 -28.1 -26.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores …….………….. -60.6 -64.8 -11.0 -11.6 -25.8 -25.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers………………………………….. -3.5 0.4 -0.5 4.7 -0.6 3.5 445 4451 Food & beverage stores………………………….. Grocery stores …………………….………….. -13.1 -13.2 12.0 13.2 26.9 28.6 29.3 30.9 12.2 13.0 15.1 16.0 446 Health & personal care stores ………………….. -15.2 -10.4 5.0 5.3 -1.6 -1.6 447 Gasoline stations ……………………..………….. -28.8 -42.8 -16.5 -18.1 -21.4 -20.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores ……………………….……………………..…………..-78.8 -89.3 -49.4 -49.8 -46.8 -46.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores ……………………….. -38.0 -48.9 -17.8 -16.3 -21.2 -21.2 452 4521 General merchandise stores…………………….. Department stores ………………………. -20.8 -28.9 -14.9 -47.0 7.1 -22.2 7.9 -25.1 -2.4 -22.6 -1.6 -25.4 453 Miscellaneous store retailers ……….………….. -24.7 -30.6 -14.1 -5.7 -15.2 -8.6 454 Nonstore retailers …………………….………….. 8.4 21.6 4.9 14.2 8.0 14.8 722 Food services & drinking places ………….. -29.5 -48.7 -29.7 -26.7 -26.3 -23.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, May 15, 2020. Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>. Table 3. Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability and Revision to Advance Estimates Apr. 2020 (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey) NAICS Code Kind of Business Median CV (1) for Current Mo. (%) 441 4411, 4412 442 443 444 445 4451 446 447 448 451 452 4521 453 454 722 Retail & food services, total ………………..……………………………………… 0.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) ……….. 0.8 Total (excl. gasoline stations) ………………………….0.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts & gasoline stations) ……………………………… 0.8 Retail, total …..……………………………………….. 0.6 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ………………. 1.4 Auto & other motor veh. dealers ………… 1.4 Furniture & home furn. stores………………. 2.5 Electronics & appliance stores ………………………….. 1.3 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers………………………………………… 1.5 Food & beverage stores………………………………. 0.8 Grocery stores ………………………………. 0.7 Health & personal care stores ……………… 1.9 Gasoline stations ……………………………………… 1.4 Clothing & clothing accessories stores …………………………………………………… 2.0 Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores ………………..…. 1.8 General merchandise stores………………… 0.8 Department stores …………………………… 0.0 Miscellaneous store retailers …………………. 4.3 1.3 Nonstore retailers ………………………………….. 3.1 Food services & drinking places ……………… Median standard error(1) for Percent change Revision for monthto-month change(2) Previous Mo. to Current Mo. Previous Qtr. to Current Qtr. Current Mo. to same Mo. Last Yr. Average revision Median absolute revision 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.4 0.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 0.8 1.9 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.4 (1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading day variation. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, May 15, 2020. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at <www.census.gov/retail/how_surveys_are_collected.html>.
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