Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1971
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n n T i o n m economic Y<f*v\l PREPARED M O N T H ENDING: June 30, 1971 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK tredds OF ST. L O U IS RELEASED: July 23» 1971 T o tal spending rose at a 7.9 per cent annual rate from the first to the second quarter of 1971, after increasing at a strikeinfluenced 13.8 per cent rate in the first quarter and 4.8 per cent in the recession yea r 1970. The second quarter GNP gain reflects a continuation of the moderate recovery which began in late 1970. Con sumer purchases of automobiles accounted for much of the difference be tween the large increase in total spending in the first quarter of this year and the more m o d erate advance in the second quarter. The first quarter post-automobile strike rebound was m a rked by an increase in consumer auto outlays amounting to about one-third of the increase in GNP. Consumer auto purchases in the second quarter accounted for only $.5 billion of the $19.7 billion rise in total spending. Overall consumer purchases have risen considerably since late last year. Consumer expenditures on goods and services, w h i c h are on average less than two-thirds of total spending, accounted for 6 8 p e r cent of the rise in GNP from the fourth quarter of 1970 to the second quarter of 1971. The sizable advance in consumer spending occurred alongside reported high rates of p e rsonal saving. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income averaged 8.3 per cent in the first half of this year, compared w i t h 7.9 per cent in 1970 and a 6 p e r cent average in the 1960's. Outlays for residential structures rose sharply in the first half of this year, whi l e inventory accumulation, net exports, and Federal Government purchases of goods and services contributed little to the recovery. Real product rose at a 5.8 per cent annual rate from the fourth quarter of last yea r to the second quarter of 1971, compared w it h a 1.3 pe r cent decline in the preceding year. Payroll and total civilian employment have changed little since year-end. Unemployment has averaged about 6 per cent of the labor force in recent months. Industrial production increased at a 4.3 p e r cent rate the first half of 1971, after falling 3.9 per cent the preceding year. Price increases, as measured by the implicit price deflator, slowed to a 4.7 per cent annual rate in the first half of 1971 from a 5.7 pe r cent rise the preceding year. Wholesale prices of industrial commodities rose at a 3.7 pe r cent rate from January to June, about the same as the increase in the preceding year. 2 TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2.9 ______ 5- 7 0 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 70 3. 1 1 . 3 ..f > . 1. 2 0.4 3 - 70 1. 6 1. 2 0. 2 4-70 1. 1 0.6 -0.3 0.8 5- 70 0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -2.8 -4.3 6- 7 0 -0.5 -1.1 -1.9 -1.8 -3.4 -4.4 -4.5 ___________ __________ 1 -*4 3- 71 ______ 4- 7 1 THOUSANDS PER SONS 5-71 7 8 « 943 78*781 78*969 , 78*886 X 78*601 78*299 0. 1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6 -0.2 4.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -1.4 -0.5 1.6 -1.0 f - -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 s 9- 70 - 2 . 4 ^ 8- 70 ! 8-70 tsj 7-70 78*728 2- 7 0 1 o 6-7 C T <t\ 12- 69 ___________________I N I T I A L MONTH OF a! r1 TERMINAL_______________________________________ MONTH 11- 69 12- 69 1- 70 2-70 i —70 78*574 -0 .4 % 78*508 78 , 479 -0.4 10- 70 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -O.ò -0.5 0.3 1. 5 0.6 1. 4 3.3 11- 70 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -2.1 78*550 12- 70 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 78*463 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.0 0.5 1. 2 0.7 1. 1 1. 5 0.9 2.4 6.3 -0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.6 - 4 . ^ \ 78*537 3- 71 -0. 1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -Ü .0 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -2.9 78*475 4- 71 0. 1 -0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -C.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 0. 5 0.0 0.5 0.9 -0.8 1. 2 3. 5 5- 71 0.4 0.2 0.0 0. 2 -0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 1. 0 1. 5 0.4 2.2 3. 8 4.1 6- 71 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 -1.9 —7 . 6 1 11- 69 12- 69 1-70 ?- 7C 3- 70 4- 7 0 5- 7 0 6-70 7- 70 8- 7 0 9 - 7 0 10- 70 1 1 - 7 0 12 - 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4-71 5- 71 1 o 1- 71 2- 71 1 0 f\> _____ 78*691 78*864 -C.9 78*698 78*961 78*443 I N I T I A L MONTH rr. PAYROLL EMPLOYME:NT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 11- 69 12- 69 THOUSANOS OF PERSONS I N I T I A L MONTH 12- 69 1- 70 3- 70 2- 7 0 4- 70 5- 7 0 6-70 7-70 8- 7 0 9-70 louts- J ULY 2* 1971 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 7 1 3- 71 4-71 5- 7 1 0.6 70*842 70*992 1- 70 1. 6 2.6 2- 70 1. 9 2.5 2.4 3- 70 1. 9 2.4 2.3 2. 1 4- 7 0 1. 2 1. 4 1. 0 0.2 71*135 71*256 t \ -1.6 71*163 70*852 5- 7C 0. 1 0.0 -0.6 -1.6 -3.4 - 5. i \ 6- 7 0 -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.6 -4.6 7- 70 -0.6 -0. 7 - 1 .3 -2.0 -3.0 -3.4 -2.6 -1.0 8- 7 0 -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -3.1 -2.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -2.8 70*603 70*546 70*414 9- 7 0 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.1 2.0 10- 70 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7 -2.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 \ -5.8 11- 70 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -3.7 70*531 - 0 . 8 % 70*182 70*085 -1 .6 ^ ^ 12- 70 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 1. 0 3.8 1- 71 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -C.4 0. 1 0.3 0. 8 0.5 2.7 5.0 70*303 6. 1 70*652 70*590 2- 71 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0. 1 0. 5 0.2 1. 8 2.9 2.5 3- 71 -0.2 -0.2 -0. 4 -0 . 6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 0. 1 0.2 0.6 U. 4 1. 6 2.5 2.0 0.1 1. 2 -C. 1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 1. 6 2.2 1. 9 0.5 1. 2 -0.0 -l.O ^X ^ 70*659 70*735 1. 3 4- 71 -0.1 5- 71 0.1 0.0 -0. 1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0. 1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.0 1. 7 2.0 6- 71 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -C.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.0 0. 1 0.3 0. 1 0.9 1. 2 0.8 -0.2 -0.0 -0.4 -1.3 -5.1]1 11- 69 12- 69 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 7 0 5-70 6-70 7-70 8- 7 0 9-70 10- 70 11 - 70 12 - 70 1- 7 1 2- 71 3-71 4-71 5- 7 1 2 . î \ 70*891 70*581 I N I T I A L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE'BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 2, 1971 3 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 SOURCEs PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1970 SCALE 1971 U . S . DE P A R T M E N T OF LABOR I ND I C A T E O . JUNE P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 4 ______ IN DUSTRIAL PRODUCTION__________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE "TERMINAL MflNTH 11- 69 1 2 -6 9 IN IT IA L HONTH 1- 70 2- 7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 5 -7 0 7 -7 0 8 -7 0 9 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 -2.1 1- 70 -1.5 -4.8 2- 70 -2.1 -2.1 Io r~11 r -% 5 0.0 2. 5 4- 7 0 -1.7 -1.6 -0.5 1 7 0 .4 1 7 0 .5 0.7 1 7 1 .1 4.3 -6.1 1 7 0 .2 1 6 9 .0 -?.a -2.9 -2.4 -3.5 -7.1 -8.1 6-7 0 -?.6 -2.7 -2.? -3.0 -5.3 -4.8 -1.4 7- 70 -1.« -1.9 -1.4 -I.a -3.3 -2.3 0.7 3D 1 o -1 .1 5- 7C -2.0 -C.5 -2.0 -1.6 -2.0 -3.2 -2.4 -4, 1 -4.0 -4.7 -6.1 -6.1 -5.6 1 6 8 .8 1 6 9 .2 2.9 -2.8 1 6 8 .8 - 6 .9 -11.5 -19.4 1 6 5 .8 0.0 1 6 2 .3 - 1 5 . 3 -2 1 . 0 - 2 2 . 6 10- 70 -5.* -A . 1 -6.3 -7.1 -8.7 -9.1 -9 .3 -11.1 11- 70 -5.a -A. 1 -ft.2 -7.0 -8.3 -8.6 -8 .7 -10. 1 -13.0 -16.2 -14.6 -5.8 IP-7C -3.6 -3.9 -3.« -4.3 -5.2 -5.1 -4.6 -5.1 -6.7 -3.3 8.0 23 . 8 -3.1 -3.8 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -4.2 -4.5 -0.4 8.4 16. 2 9. 1 2- 71 -2.9 -3.0 -2.H -3.1 -3.8 -3.5 -3.0 -3.2 -4.0 -4.2 -0.9 5.5 9.5 3.0 -2 .9 ■^-71 -2.0 -2.6 -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.0 -2.5 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -0.4 4.8 7.6 2.7 -0 .4 2 .2 4- 71 -2.2 -2. ? - 2. C, -2.2 -2.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -2.4 -2.3 0.4 4.9 7. 1 3.3 1 .5 3 .7 5 .2 5- 71 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 1. 4 5.3 7.3 4.3 3 .1 6 .7 8 .2 *-7l -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 - 0 . i> -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 1. 7 5.2 6.9 4.3 3 .4 5. 2 T T 5 .9 6 .3 ....6-12. 7- 70 8-70 -3.0 1- 71 5 -7 1 1 7 1.1 I.? -69 0- 7C 6 -7 0 19 5 7 -5 9 • 100 1 0 -7 0 1 1 -7 0 1 2 -7 0 . . i Lr i i S. J L2r 6S. -2=211.. Ar l Q. , -7.6 1 6 1 .5 1 6 4 .4 9- 70 JJlr.lQ 11- 7Q A i r T f t . 1 6 5 .6 16 5 .2 \+5.0% l - T l .7-71. J - I l 1 6 5 .5 1 6 6 .2 'V . 16 7.3P 4 .4 1 16 7.9P - i r I L . . 5 -L L _ _ _ ___ _________________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH_______________________________________________________________________________ ¿ r - £ R E U HI MAP,Y__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ?ft.EPAftgp ? Y . F J 2 | RAk..»i s a Y i JULY 15f 1971 P A * * Of V* l a ü l 5 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1963 RATIO 1964 1965 1966 1967 P E R C E NT A GE S ARE ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LA T E S T DATA PLOTTED* 1968 1969 1970 SCALE 1971 INDICATED. JUNE P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S 6 RETAIL COMPOUNDED ANNUAL INITIAL SALES RATES OF CHANGE M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS MONTH MONTH 10-69 1 1- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 -5.9 1 2- 69 -4.0 - 2.1 1-70 -0.7 2.0 2-70 3.7 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 29,419 11-69 29,570 6.3 7 . 1 ___ 1 2 . 0 12-69 18.0 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 INITIAL P- 9-70 29,471 1 1- 69 10-69 12-69 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 MGNTH PRELIMINARY PRE PA RED J ULY 13, COMPOUNDED BY F E D E R A L 1971 RES ERVE BANK OF INITIA L 11-69 7.1 1-70 6.4 1 2- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 LOUIS P E RSONA L I NCOME ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE B I L L I O N S OF D OL L A RS ANNUAL R A T E S MONTH MONTH 12-69 ST. 7-70 8-70 9-70 1 0- 70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 5-71 776.5 780.1 5.7 783.5 2-70 6.0 5.5 5.4 3-70 6.9 6.8 7.4 9.4 4-70 11.5 12.7 15.1 20.3 32.2 789.4 808.0 802.0 5-70 7.9 8.1 8.7 9.8 10.0 -8.6 6-70 6.6 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.2 -4.8 -0.9 7-70 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.2 -1 .3 2.5 8-70 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.1 0.4 3.5 5.8 5.7 6.9 7.4 9. 1 801.4 805.3 6.0 809.0 814.9 6.8 7.0 6.6 2.1 4.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.3 1.4 3.5 4.6 4.2 3.5 -1.9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.0 i.6 3.4 4.3 3.9 3.4 0.6 3.1 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.4 2.4 4.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 3.0 5.5 7.9 6.5 6.3 3.7 5.4 6. 3 6.3 6.5 5.8 ___8 . 5 11.3 9-70 6.7 6.6 10 - 7 0 5.9 11-70 5.6 12-70 5.8 813.6 815.7 820.9 8 3 0 . 4 __________ 14.8 1-71 6.4 6.4 6.4 2-71 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.1 3.8 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.2 5.6 7.6 9.1 9.6 4.7 3-71 6.5 6. 5 6.6 6.7 6.4 4.3 5.7 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.3 8 . 0 ___ 9 . 2 9.7 7.2 9.8 4-71 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.4 4.5 5.8 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.4 7.8 8.7 9.0 7.1 8.3 6.8 5-71 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 4.8 6.0 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 7.8 8.6 8.8 7.3 8.2 7.4 7.9 6-71 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 6.6 7.8 8.6 8.8 9.2 9.2 10.6 11.7 12.4 11.9 13.8 15.2 19.6 32.6 11-69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 5-71 IN ITIAL 833.6 840.1 844.7 8 5 0 . IP 8 7 0 . 3P MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 20, 1971 7 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS RATIO OF 1963 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DOLLARS 1964 1965 1966 1967 BILLIONS 1968 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES AR E LATEST P LO T T E D « DATA AN NUA L RATES MAY OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S PERSONAL SCALE TRILLIONS U.S. 1970 DEPARTMENT 1971 Of COMMERCE IN D ICATED . BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BA NK DOLLARS OF ST. LOU IS INCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF SCALE DOLLARS P RELIM IN ARY PREPARED RATIO 1969 OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 1. 0 0.9 0.8 0. 0.7 0. 0.6 0. 0.5 0.4 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED: DAT A ANNUA L RATES J UNE OF CHANGE FOR P ER IO D S 1969 U.S. 1970 DEPARTMENT 1971 OF COMMERCE INDICATED . PRELI MI NARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS 8 GROS S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S C OMP O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E _________ INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER ____________ 3 - 6 6 4-66 4 -6 6 8.1 1-67 5 .0 1.9 5.1 3.6 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 QUARTER 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 2- 7 0 1-70 3-70 4-70 BI LL I ONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1 - 7 1 ________________ _____________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ 7 7 0 .7 7 7 4 .4 5.3 7.0 6.3 5.9 7.2 6.8 6.5 8 0 0 .9 8.2 81 5. 9 7.7 9.5 10.4 857.4 11.7 875. 2 8.5 7.5 7.5 90 6 . 4 8.6 7.5 921.8 7.2 ~3= 66— 4=66----- r^67----- 2^67----- 5=67— S=67----- T^68— T = 65----- -------------- ¡f=6B----- P ^ 5 — 2^69----- 5=6^5— ^ 6 9 Z-7T5 Y=TÖ 3=7Ü 5=70 r =7 T " -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I N I T I A I : ..'QtJAÏÏTER--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED ÔY FÉDÉRAL RESERVE “BANK OF S T . JULY 16, LÖUT3- 1 97 1 G ROS S N A T I O N A L P ROD U C T I N C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S __________ C OMP OU N D E D A NNUA L . R A - I f S O F f. HANGF ______________ TERMINAL QUARTER ___________ _______________ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS IN ITIAI QUARTER ANNUAL R A T E S 1- h i ___ 7 -h .l ___3- A7__ 4—67___ l - f r f l -------_______ 3-6fi__ 4~6B___ L = Á 3 ------ 2s±3.___ 3~69__ 4 - 6 9__ 1 - 7 0 ___ Z ~ Z Q ___ 3~7Q__ 4t 7Q___L r T l ____________________ 668.1 666 .6 671.6 6 7 8 .9 6 8 3. 6 3 . 4 _____3 . 6 70 5 .3 3 . 8 _____ 3 . 7 712 . 3 . 716. 5 . - ¿l . 4______________ k ^h _____3 ^ 2 _____2 . 4 ? . 6____ 2. 8 4 . 4 _____4 . 2 7 2 1.4 724. 2 2^7____ ? .2 /L. 8____ 3 . 9 2.Q 727a.fi.. 725. 2 Q.7 Q . 4___ - 0 . 2 ___ - 0 . 8 2-70 , . 2. - 4_____ 2 . .4 O.a____ 0^5____ 0*2__ - 0 . 1 ___- Û j -6__ - Q . 3 Q . 2___ - Q ^ Q___- Q . 4 ___ = Í U 7. 3 1-71 5— 7 1 3-66 ?. ? 9.4 4-66 1-67 ?. ? 2-67 71 9 . 8 -+07% 0 . 4 ___ - Û...Û___ - Q . 4___ - 1 . 2 , 3-67 1.0 - r - L 3 ___- L . 3___ _Q...7.. 723. 3 1 .2 -1 .4 7 1 5 ,9 -4 * 0 1 1 . 0 ____ CLJ3____ 0^ 6 ____ 0 . 4 0 . 2 ____ Q . 5 1.4 1 . 6 _____ U f i _____7 . 9 7.1 1*9 1-4 1.7 1-1 4-67 1-68 2-68 3-68 4-68 IN ITIA L -I 2 9 -J L 0-9 0-8 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.4 5.8 3.7 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 1 7 3 6 . 3P QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 16. 1971 9 DEMAND AND P R O D U C T I O N RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS 1963 QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS 1964 1965 QGNP >N CURRENT DOLLARS. |£GNP IN 1958 DOLLARS. TOTALS AT SEASONALLY 1966 1967 RATIO RATES ADJUSTED 1968 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L A T F S T DATA PLOTTED; ANNUAL TRILLIONS 1969 U.S. 1970 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 2ND QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RES ERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 10 FI NAL SALCS *N CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNOED ANNUAL KATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER 4-66 3 - 66 1- 67 2-67 3- 6 7 4-67 1- 68 2-68 3-68 BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-69 1-69 4-68 3-69 4-69 2-70 t-70 3-70 4-70 1- 71 75 0 . 8 4-66 3.7 1- 67 5.7 7.7 2-67 6.5 7.9 8.2 3—67 6.5 7.4 7.3 6.4 4-67 6.6 7.3 7.2 6.8 7. 1 1- 68 7.7 8.5 8.7 8.8 10. 1 2-68 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.5 10. 7 8.3 3-68 8.0 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.5 10. 3 9.0 9.6 4-68 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.5 8.3 8.3 76 4 . 8 780.0 7 9 2. 2 80 5 . 9 ft/ s j “ö . l / o 831. 1 13. 1 8 4 7. 8 867.5 \ 8 82. 1 899.6 1- 69 7. 9 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.2 8.2 8.2 7.5 ... 2- 6 9 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.3 8. 6 8.8 8.0 7.9 7.4 7.6 \ 7.0 91 5 . 0 KJ-5.6% 3-69 7.7 8.1 8. 1 8. 1 8.3 8.5 7. 8 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.8 6.6 A—69 7.5 7.9 7.9 7.9 8. 0 8. 1 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.5 1- 70 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.2 7. 1 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.8 2- 7 0 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7. 5 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.2 929.8 942.3 __________ _ 9 5 5 . 6 4.6 - - L A "70/ s + O / /o 966.4 2.6 \ 984.7 978.4 3- 7 0 7. 1 7.3 7.3 7.2 7. 3 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 5. 1 4.8 5. 1 4-70 6,8 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.1 3. 8 1- 71 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.5 7. 1 8.2 14. 0 \ 2- 71 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 7. 2 7.9 10.6 7.3 3- 66 4-66 1- 67 2-67 3- 6 7 4-67 1- 68 2-68 3- 68 4-68 1- 6 9 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1- 71 1*017. 6 1 1.035.8P I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELI MINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . J ULY 2 0 , 1971 LOUI S FI NAL SALES IN CONSTANT 1958 OOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE BI L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 3-66 4-66 1- 67 2- 6 7 3- 67 4-67 1- 68 2-68 3- 68 1-69 4-68 ^ 2-69 3-69 4-69 1- 70 2-70 3-70 4- 70 1- 71 649.5 4-66 0.2 1- 67 2.6 5.0 2- 67 3. 8 5.6 6. 1 657.5 667.3 6 7 0. 6 3- 67 3. 3 4.4 4.0 2.0 4-61 3.1 3.8 3. 4 2. 1 2.3 1- 68 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 5. 9 9.6 2- 68 4. 1 4.8 4.7 4.4 5. 2 6.7 3. 8 3- 68 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.5 5. 2 6.2 4.5 5.2 4-68 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.6 5. 1 3.7 3.7 1- 69 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.9 3.7 3^7 3.0 2-69 3. 8 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.3 3. 3 3. 1 2.5 2.6 1.5 3- 6 9 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.1 3. 5 3. 7 2. 7 2.5 1. 9 1. 8 0.8 0.1 4-69 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 2. 5 2.3 1. 7 1. 6 0.9 0,5 0.9 j 1- 70 3.0 3.2 3. 0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2. 1 1.9 1. 3 1. 2 0.5 0.2 0.3 2-70 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 1. 9 1.6 l.l 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 1 J t 4 AO/ .4/ o 674.4 690.0 696.5 705.3 709.1 2.2 715,7 i a no/ w iU .y / o 718.4 718,6 720.3 719.5 -0.4 - 0 > \ 7 1 9. 1 + 1 .1 % 3- 70 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 1. 7 1.4 1. 0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.0 0.2 ' v 719.4 4-70 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 1. 9 1. 2 0.9 0,5 .0,3. -0,? -0.5 —0 . 6 -1.0 -1.2 -1.7 -3.6 712.8 1- 71 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 1. 8 1.6 1. 2 l.l 0.8 0,7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1. 5 2.2 8 .3 ^ ^ 727.1 2- 71 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 1. 8 1.7 1.4 1. 3 1.0 1. 0 1. 1 1. 1 1.4 l.B 2.4 5.5 7 3 2 . 3P 3-66 4-66 1- 67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1- 68 2-68 3- 68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4- 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 2.9^ 1- 71 I N I T I A L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS JULY 20« 1971 11 FINAL SALES TOTAL SPENDING LESS CHANGES IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS 1. 1 1 QUARTERLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY RATIO RATES ADJUSTED TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 1 . 2 . 1 . .0 0 . 0.9 0 . 0 . 8 0 . 0.7 0 . 0 . 6 0 0.5 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 SOURCE! PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1969 U. S. 1970 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I NDI CATED. 2ND QUARTER P RE L I MI N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S 12 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX * TERMINAL MONTH 11- 69 12- 69 1967 * 100 I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 70 2- 7 0 3- 70 4- 70 5- 70 6-70 7- 70 8- 70 9- 70 10- 70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4-71 5- 71 7. 7 112. 9 1- 70 6.0 113. 3 o r» 6.2 5. 4 6. 5 3- 70 6. 3 5. 8 6. 5 4- 70 6. 5 6. 2 6.9 7.0 7. 6 5- 70 6.3 6. 1 6. 5 6.5 6. 5 5. 3 ___ 6- 70 6.3 6. 1 6. 5 6.5 6.4 5. 9 12-69 4.3 ____ 7- 70 ____ 6. 1 113. 9 114. 5 6.5 115. 2 115. 7 6.4 116. 3 ! \ 116. 7 6. 1 6. 0 5. 9 5. 3 8- 70 5. 6 5. 4 5. 5 5. 3 5. 1 4. 5 4.2 3.1 2. 1 116. 9 9- 70 5. 7 5. 5 5. 6 5.5 5. 3 4. 9 4. 7 4.2 4.2 117. 5 10- 70 5. 8 5. 6 5. 7 5. 6 5.5 5.1 5. 1 4.7 4.9 6.3 118. 1 6. 3 "\+4.5% 11- 70 5. 6 5. 4 5. 5 5. 4 5. 3 5. 0 4. 9 4.6 4. 7 5. 6 5. 2 4.1 12-70 5. 7 5. 5 5. 6 5.5 5. 4 5. 1 5. 1 4.9 5.0 5. 8 5. 6 5.2 1-71 5. 3 5. 1 5. 2 5. 1 4. 9 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.3 4. 8 4.4 3. 8 3.6 118. 5 119.1 1. 0 119. 2 2- 71 5. 1 4.9 5. 0 4. 8 4.7 4.4 4. 3 4.0 4. 0 4.3 3. 9 3.3 3. 1 1. 5 2.0 ____3- 71 5. 0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4. 6 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.0 4. 3 4. 0 3. 5 3. 3 2.4 3.1 4. 1 4- 71 5. 0 4.8 4. 8 4.7 4.6 4. 3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4. 0 3. 6 3.5 2. 8 3.4 4. 1 4. 1 5-71 5. 0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4. 7 4. 5 4.4 4.2 4. 2 4. 5 4. 2 4. 0 3.9 3. 5 4.1 4. 8 5. 1 6.2 120. 8 6- 71 5. 2 5. 0 5. 1 5. 0 4.9 4. 7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.4 4. 1 4.7 5. 4 5. 8 6.7 121. 5 11- 69 12- 69 1- 70 2- 70 3- 70 4- 7 0 5- 70 6- 7 0 7- 70 8- 70 9 - 7 0 10-70 11- 70 12- 70 1- 71 2- 71 3- 71 4-71 119. 4 119. 8 120. 2 5- 71 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦ NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 23, 1971 WHOL E S A L E P R I C E S - I N J U S T * I A L C O M M O D I F I E S * ______ ■CJJMP- QUNOEf l - AhNUAL RATE. S OF C H A N G E____________________________________________________________________________ IN ITIAL .. XERMUiAL- ___________ 1967 MONTH MONTH __________ 1 1 ^ 2 _ J L 2 = M_ 1 - 7 C ..-12-A9- . -5. 1 - ^- ... ¿- 1.0... -4*31— 20 ... ____4- 7. G 3-70 4.- 70 5-70 6 - 70 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2 - 7 1 ___ 3 ^ 7 1 ___ W 1 ___ 5 - 7 1„ 107. 8 A . îl_ ____ 1- ZÜ _____ 1- 2 -1 0 108. 3 ■A^5108. 9 ..4-.JL.. 4*3... -_.4ju2_.. 11-69 12-69 10 9.3 — 1^4.... ,_4..5._ 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 5-70 6-70 7-70 d-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 5-71 I N I T I A L MONTH _ *_ _.!Si.QL. S E A S O N A L L Y . A 0 J U S T CP . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 9, 1971 13 RATIO PR I C E S SCALE RATIO 1967-100 1967-100 1963 SCALE 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 S OURCE: PER C ENTA GES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S L A T E S T DATA PLOTTED: 1970 1971 U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR INDICATED. JUNE PRFPARFD RY FFDFRAI RFSFRVF RANK OF ST I fill I S 14 WHOLESALE PRI CES . ALL COMMODI TI ES * mMPUUNOEP ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____ 1967 » 100 ■1NJJLAL HQNTtt, ___ TERMINAL___________ MONTH _______________ 1 1 - 6 9 1-7 0 17-69 7— 70 3 -7 0 4— 7Q 5 -7 0 6 -7 0 7 -7 0 8 -7 Q 9 -7 0 I Q - 70 11-70 1 2 - 7 0 ___ l ~ ? i ¿ ’ 71___ 3 z l l ------ W 1 ------g r . I L . _1_0JL.5„ -------12- 6 9 _____ ___________ 109.3 ?-70 . . . 5*3 3,3 3.. 0 2*2 3 . ft •>.7 3^ 3. .... 7.7 i .h 1.s 7.7 7. 9 2.6 7 . ft 4.4 6.7 1. 9 1.5 1.3 1. 5 1. 1 ..... 4.» Q . 1 .7 *-7n - ____6 - 7 0 _____7 - 7 0 109.7 109.9 ¿.fl *»» 1 - ____ 3- 7. 0, . ..... 4 - 7 0 4.5 H. 1 ...... 1 ^2 «»-70 3*1 7. H 7.7 — L*J — i 0.0 109.9 1. 1 110.1 110.3 110.9 -4.2 110.5 111.0 _____a-7.o_- 3.7 1 7.3 7.0 7.0 2.5 7.6 0.5 5.6 „..aaaJO- 2 r9 7 . rt 7. 1 1 . ft 1.7 7.0 1. 9 0,4 2 . 7_ _Q." l i-?r. 7 .A 7.4 1. a 1 . «5 1.4 1.S 1. 1 r:. o 1. S -0.5 -1.1 l?-*C 7. 5 ?t 3 1 .7 1 .4 1.3 1 .4 1. 3 0.7 0.0 0.0 1. 1 ]-T\ 7.9 7 . ft 7.3 7. 1 7. 1 7.3 7.3 1.6 2.8 2.2 2.9 5.0 9.0 7-71 3. <5 3.4 i.n 7 . ft 7.9 3.3 3.4 3 .n 4.7 3.9 4.9 7.0 10.1 - 111.0 U f i s ? ......... 111,0 111.8 11.3 111*1 113.0 - 3^71_ 3.4 3. 3 7 r9 7. ft 7. fl 3.7 3.3 7.9 3.9 3.6 4.4 5.8 7.4 6.6 4.- 71 3.4 i. 3 7.9 7 . ft 7.9 3.7 3.3 7.9 3.8 3.6 4.? 5.3 6.3 5.5 2.7 3.2 *i— 7 1 3.5 3.4 3. 1 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.1 4.0 3.8 4.4 5.3 6.2 5.5 3.6 4.3 5.4 6-71 3.A *.5 3.7 3. 1 7 3 .5 ^ . ft 3.3 4. 1 4.0 4.5 5.3 6.0 5.5 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.4 11- 69 12-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 5-70 6 - 7C 7-70 8-70 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 5-71 4 INITIAL ____* — 2.1 113.3 U 3 , 8 ..... 1 15.3 MONTH SEASU. MALLY A D J U S T E D - PREPARED BY F E D E R A L RESERVE 8ANK OF J U L Y 9 , 1971 WHOL ESAL E P R I C E S - FARM P R O D U C T S . AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS* _____________________________________________________ L QH.PQU.NQ f i) A NNUAL RA.I ES._Qf- ..£HAN_5.E__________________________________________ _________________ ____________________________________________________ ___________I N I T I A L MONTH____________________________________________________________________________ J J i R l U N A L ______ MONTH 1-70 2— 70 3-70 4-70 5-7Q 6-7C 7-70 6-70 9 - 7 0 10- 70 1 1- 70 1 2 - 7 0 1-71 2 - 7 1 ___ W l .....4 - 7 1___ 5 - 7 1 „ ____________ U N L 2 - 6 9 1 2 - 6 9 ...6 . 7 112.4 L1*JL_ 7 1 . 4 __ 1 - 7 0 ___ Z z J S u ___ IQ ^ J L . 1 2. 5 J U * L_ .........3- 70____ A . - L _ *»-70 2.2 1 ,,3 - 3 . ,2 - 5, .6 -fi.,7 -if. 3 6- 70 2, 7 2 ,.0 .5 -2.9 -4..7 - 0 .,5 „ 1 -1 ± . 4^1 4.,4 __ 1.8 1.3 8-70 1.5 0,. fl 9-7Q 7.8 ? , ,4 10-70 0. 3 - 0,3 1 1 —70 - 0.1 - 0,7 17 - 7 0 -n.i> - 1,7 1-71 0. 5 ,.8 .8 0 .,3 — 0., 3 - 3, , 3 -1 - 2. ,7 0 ,, 1 - 1 ,, 5 tiL. -1 12,5 ,,fc 0 ,.0 - 0 ,,5 1 .,7 3,.8 - 3. ,9 r 2 .,7 - 1 ,9 ,9 111. 7 19. 9 113. 4 16. 2 112.6 - 3 , , 7 - 1 0 .5 -4, a -21.9 110.3 - 2 ,,3 3., 3 - 4 .2 - 3 , .8 ■0 - 4 . ft - 1 3 . 6 -*■ -4., 7 -3.,3 -Z j ,9 -4.,3 - 8 .5 - 5 . ,0 - 1 1 . 2 - 5 , ,3 ,0 - 2 ., \ - 1 ,,} - O i, 7 - 1 ,, 5 - 4 ,7 - 1. i 4.,4 -4. 7-71 7. 6 ?, ,3 i ,11"! 0 ,. 7 0 ., 7 1 ,,9 2,9 2 ,i u 0 .3 -3^71 2. 3 ? ,. o 0 .,8 0, 5 0 .,4 1 .,6 2, 4 2 ,,C -U..JD 4-71 2. 1 1 ,, 8 ,6 1,,4. „ 0 ., } 1., 3 2, ] 1 ,,7 5-71 2.6 ? , ,4 ] ,, 1 1 ., 1 2 .,1 .8 ? , .5 1.,8 2 .,8 3,.5 3,. 3 3-70 4-70 5-70 6- 7 0 ___ 6 - 7 L .. 1. •3 ? . 19 11-69 12-69 ... 1 , W J ill. 2 ,7 - ? c ,9 .7 - 3, ,4 -3, 1.3 -3. 111.2 5,•5 ¿-70 2.1 3.4 ..... 1a 4 .1 2^,5 1.1 1 .0 3. ,7 2. 3 -C .1 *SL.__ 7-70 3-70 „J..3 109. 9 -6.4 1 ,»5 . 9, 109,3 Vr4 . 16.5 110. 7 14.2 26.1 36. 4 6 .,9 9. 9 15.9 15. 6 - 2. 1 5,.5 7. 6 11.4 9. 7 - 1.6 - 1.1 6. 3 8.2 11. 3 10.1 2.5 4. 9 7,.0 . . ¿ . 7 LI,5 9-70 10-70 11-70 12-70 113. 6 113. 4 l.Q*_5 .. .4*8 _ 1 * 2 . 1-71 2-71 3-71 . 113. 3 11.1 114.3 11•6 12.2 4-71 5-71 115. 4 INITIAL M0NTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JULY 9, 1971 _ 15 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE 1958-100 1963 *A5 USED 1964 ! N NA TI ON AL 1965 1966 1967 L A TE ST DATA PL OTTED: 1968 INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: PER CENT AGE S ARE ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S 1969 U.S . 1970 1971 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IND ICATED. 2ND QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y P R EPARE D BY FED ERAL R E S ER VE BANK OF ST . I MPLICIT 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1 - 68 LOU IS PRI CE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NAT I ONAL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL 3-66 SCALE 1958-100 2-68 3-63 4-68 1958 * 100 QUARTER 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1- 71 115.4 4-66 1 - 67 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 3-67 4-67 1 - 68 2-68 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 INITIAL QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS JULY 16, 1971 INVENTORIES CO MP ARE D WI T H MONTHLY MANUFACTURING # R A T ! OS BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED S HAD E D A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF AS D E F I N E D BY THE N A T I O N A L B URE A U LATEST DATA PLOTTED: MAY AND SALES* TRADE DA TA . SOURCE: U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUSINESS RECESSIONS OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H . PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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