Full text of National Economic Trends : May 1986
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National Economic Trends M ay 1986 Recently revised estimates show that real GNP rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year. This growth appears to reflect inventory building, since real final sales (output less business inventory investment) fell at a 0.7 percent rate during the quarter. Over the past few quarters, however, final sales measures have been distorted to an unusual extent by government purchases of farm products by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Since CCC purchases are offset by equal reductions in business (farm) inventory investment, such purchases do not affect real GNP. There is little reason, other than accounting convention, for treating such inventory purchases differently than farm inventory investment. When CCC purchases rise, however, final sales also rise since business inventory invest ment is reduced. Similarly, when such purchases fall, measured final sales are depressed. In the fourth quarter of 1985, CCC purchases surged to a record $33.7 billion (1982 prices), almost twice their previous record level in the fourth quarter of 1982. Such purchases then declined to $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 1986. When CCC purchases are excluded from government purchases and included in inventory investment, adjusted final sales mat ches better with the pattern of GNP growth (see table below). Real inventory investment, including CCC purchases, accelerated from $27.4 billion in the fourth quarter to $40.7 billion in the first quarter of this year, but the rise is substantially smaller than the reported surge in real business inventory investment from $-6.3 billion to $33 billion in the same period. Analysts who focus on the decline in real final sales and the large rise in business inventory purchases are likely to view the near-term outlook for production and employment more pessimistically than is warranted by the adjusted figures. Growth Rates of Real GNP and Final Sales Real GNP 1985/1 II III IV 1986/1 3.7% 1.1 3.0 0.7 3.7 Real final sales Adjusted real final sales1 6.2% 1.2 5.0 1.3 -0.7 - 6 .0 % 1.6 3.5 1.0 2.2 ‘Adjusted to include CCC purchases in inventory investment instead of in government purchases views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. —John A. Tatom TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT* f.OMPfillNOEn ANNUAL RATES- f>F CHANTJ___ TMTTTAt MONTH O— ftA. 1A -A 4 1 1-A4 1 7-ft¿. 1-ftS A.-ft* 7-A* *-A»i TMTHKANrtt OF PERSONS MTIMTM A-A* 7-A* ft-A* Q-ftS 10-85 11—#15 17-6 5 1-AA 7- 6 6 _ l - f l ò 10S.6 57 ? 105*971 11—** i -? 1- A i y —ft4 i -7 •*-4 1 -7 ? 7-* 7 -n ft-A 7-A «L 7 -f 7 -7 ?-i 1- 9 1-1 1-A 5 7 -9 1-ft 7. 7-7 1-6 4-7 a.—a ■: ? .A 7-1 7 -i 1 - ft ? .1 1 -A -0 -9 ■i-fl ^ 7-7 7-1 i -ft 1 -A 1-ft 1-1 -0 .1 A—ft •» 1 -«i 1 i ft - 7 ft-A 0-0 -1 .1 1-ft«L ft -ft 10 6.2 46 10 6.31 5 10 6.5 67 106*951 106.872 106 .9 3 9 0. 8 -1 - 5 -1 -7 106 .60 1 .10 6.8 71 7—ft *; 1 1T*: 1- i 1 -ft 1 -ft ft-A -0 -7 f t - ,fì -0 -4 1-1 ft- a *; Ì .<5 i -a 1 .A 1 >4 Ì -4 1- ? ft-A 1- Û 1-0 1-5 1 -9 1 -7 1-5 1-1 1 - ,5 1 -A 1 -5 1-7 g -« ? -ft i n— a *; 7- I 11 ?- 1 7-1 7-1 i 7- a* 1 -9 10 7.21 0 10 7.5 19 3.5 1 -ft 1- A 7-ft 1. 9 1-ft 1 -9 1-7 1-4 1 - ,fì ? -ft 1-4 1- A 3-4 3.1 7-0 1- 9 1- f t 1 -9 1- 7 1 -4 1 - ft 1- 9 1-1 1-1 2-9 2-5 1.8 1-9 1 -ft 1-9 1- f t 1 -A 1- 9 7 -ft 1-0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.2 107 .81 3 107 .96 9 10 8.2 06 2.7 1-flA 7 -«i 7 -s 7-4. 7-1 ? -S 7-4 7- 1 2. 6 2.8 1 .8 3.9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 5.6 8 .6 7—ftA 2.1 2.1 2 .0 1 .9 1 .9 1.9 1.6 1 .9 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2 .0 -4 .3 3 -8 6 2*1 2.1 2.0 1 .9 2.0 1.9 1.7 2. 0 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 -0 .9 2.5 2*0 1*9 1 .9 1. 9 1.9 1.7 1. 9 2.0 2. 6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2 .1 1. 9 -0 .2 1 .8 1 .2 10 -8 4 11 - 8 4 12—64 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-95 5- 8 5 6-8 5 7-8 5 8-65 11—85 12-65 1-66 2-96 3-86 11-65 12-85 1-86 2-66 3-86 4-86 2.1 9-84 9 - 8 5 10-8 5 10 8.955 108 ,56 1 106» 768 108,892 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦SEE FO O TN O TF BOTTOM OF CHART O P P O S ITE PAGE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE? OF CHANGE 4.3 11 -64 4.1 3. 9 12-6 4 3t6 3. 3 2-85 3-85 4— 85 5- 6 5 6-8 5 95 ,8 8 2 96,092 9 6 ,4 1 9 3.8 3. 6 3.4 4 .2 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.2 3- 8 5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3. 1 4 .0 4-65 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.9 3.3 9 6 ,5 9 1 96 , 9 1 0 2.6 97,120 97,421 5- 9 5 ?*5 3. 3 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.8 6 -6 5 irl 3. 0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 0.6 7-65 3. 1 3 .0 2.9 2 .9 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 1. 8 2.9 11-85 97,473 97,707 3.0 2 .9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.3 3 .1 3.4 if\ 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.1 3 .2 3.0 3t 2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 8 -8 5 ?t 2 12 -6 5 THOUSANDS Of PERSONS 10-85 2.7 1- 8 5 10-85 8- 8 5 9 5 ,5 7 3 2-85 9-65 7-85 v'D C 10 -64 1-8 5 * 9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 11 - 8 4 12 - 8 4 ! I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 97,977 98,217 9 8 ,5 5 9 4.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.0 3.1 3 .1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3 .0 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.3 3 .5 98,801 99,086 I ?t3 3.3 3.2 3 .3 3.2 3.3 3 .2 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 4 .0 3.9 4.3 5. 1 2 -e * 3.3 3.2 3 .1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3 .6 3.4 3 .5 3.5 1.9 3-86 3 .2 3 .1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3 .0 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3 .3 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.2 4-66 3.2 3 .1 3 .0 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3 .0 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64 1-8 5 2-65 3 -8 5 4-65 5 -6 5 6- 6 5 7-6 5 8- 8 5 9- 8 5 10-65 11-65 12 -65 1-86 2-66 3-86 99,496 99,656 9 9 , 834P 100,040P I N I T I A L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 2 . 1966 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE M I L L IONS OF RATIO PERSONS seasonally MILLIONS adjusted OF SCALE PERSONS 125 120 1 15 I 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 SOURCEt U .S.D EPAR TM EN T OF LABOR BEG INNING JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEf PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 X . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D . LATE ST DATA PLO TTE D t A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LO U IS UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 1l I I .0 . 10. 1 0 .0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 982 1983 1984 SOURCEt U .S . 1985 1986 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV I L I A N LABOR FORCE LATE ST DATA P LO TTED t A P R IL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 3 4.0 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED _____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E _________________ TERM INAL_____________________________ ____________ _______________________I N I T I A L MONTH_______________ __ ______________________________ __________________ 1967«1Q0 MONTH 9-84 lo-e^ 3*9 11-84 3.1 10-84 11-84 12-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-05 8-85 9-85 10— 85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 314*7 2.3 315*3 316.1 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.3 2-85 3 tl ?.9 3.1 3.1 3.9 3-85 3.5 3.5 3*8 4.0 4.8 4-8 5 3 .6 3,6 3*8 4.0 4.6 5.0 4.2 5-85 3.5 3.5 3.6 T.8 4.1 4.2 3.4 2.7 6-85 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.3 2*8 3.0 7-85 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.0 2*6 2.6 2.3 8-85 3.3 3.2 3.3 3*3 3.5 3.4 3.0 2*6 2 .6 2*4 2.6 9-8 5 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 2*4 2.4 10-8 5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 4 .5 11-8 5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 3*6 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.7 12-85 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3*8 4.1 4.5 5.3 5*7 4*5 1-86 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3*9 4. 1 4.4 5.0 5*1 4*3 4.1 2-8 6 3.1 3.1 3. 1 3.1 3.2 3. 1 2.9 2*8 2.8 2*8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2*6 1.2 -0 .4 -4*6 3-86 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 1*9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1*0 -0 .4 -1 .9 -4*8 -5*0 4-8 6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1*5 1.3 1.2 1. 1 0.9 0*3 -1*0 -2 .3 -4*3 -4 .1 -3 .3 3-85 4-65 5-65 6-85 7-85 9-85 1Ô-Ô5 11-05 12-85 2-86 3-86 1-85 319.2 5.8 2-8 5 320.3 321.0 321.8 323.1 323.7 2.3 324.9 6*9 326*7 327.9 329*0 327*7 326*3 325*4 1 IN ITIA L 322.4 a> 1 00 11-84 316.7 317*7 « cr t 9-84 1 00 *>\ 3.1 1-85 IN* CG 1 <\l 12-84 MONTH MAY 2 1 , 1986 PRODUCER PRICE INOEXt FIN IS H EO GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*_____________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1967 * 100 I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 9 - 8 4 1 0 -8 4 1 1 - 8 4 1 2 - 8 4 1-8 5 2-85 3 -8 5 4-85 5 -8 5 6 -8 5 7-6 5 8 -8 5 9-85 10-8 5 11-85 12 -85 1—86 2-86 3 -8 6 291*1 10 -84 -0 .8 11 -8 4 1.2 3.3 12 -8 4 1 .1 2.1 0.8 291*9 2 9 2 .1 291.9 1 -8 5 0 .6 1.1 0 .0 -0 .8 2 -8 5 0.5 0.8 0 .0 -0 .4 0.0 3-65 0.5 0.7 0.1 -0 .1 0.2 0.4 4-85 1.3 1. 7 1.3 1.4 2.2 3.3 6.3 291.9 2 9 2 .0 293.5 5 -8 5 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 2*4 3 .2 4.6 2.9 6-85 1.1 1. 3 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 0.2 7-85 1 .2 1 .5 1 .2 1.3 1.7 2 .0 2.4 1.1 294.2 293.6 -2 .4 0.2 2.9 294.3 293*4 8-85 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0 .9 1.0 1.2 —0*1 -1 .1 -0 .4 -3 .6 9-8 5 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0 . 1 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 -1 .4 -2 .4 -2 .4 -5 .0 -6 .4 10-85 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 0 .6 0.2 0.6 0 .1 2 .1 11 .2 291*8 294*4 2* ¿.4 ‘ 11-85 1.5 1.7 1 .5 1*6 1.9 2.1 2.3 1 .7 1.5 2 .3 2.2 4 .2 9 .8 8 .5 12-85 1 .9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 2 .6 2 .9 2.5 2.4 3*2 3.3 5.1 9.2 8.2 8.0 1-86 1.3 1.4 1. 3 1.3 1. 5 1.6 1 .8 1.3 1.1 1 .6 1.4 "2 .4 4.T 2.6 -0 .2 298*3 -7 .0 ” -re .è 2 9 ¿.V " 2-86 0.1 0.2 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .7 -1 .1 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .2 -2 .7 -¿ .2 3-8 6 -0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .6 " -T.2 -i.è -2 .* -2 .3 -2 .* -2 .8 -2 .F -4 .7 - 7 . 7 - 1 2 . 4 —14 .6 - 1 2 . 0 -T7 7 T 4-8 6 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .6 -2 .5 -2 .7 -2 .8 -3*4 -3 .4 -2 .* -5 .1 -7 .¿ -rr.i -12*2 —9*7 -7*2 9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 1 2 -8 4 1-8 5 2-85 3-85 4-8 5 5 -8 5 6-85 7-6 5 8-8 5 9 - 8 5 10-85 11-65 12 -85 1 -8 6 2-86 3-86 29 I T T 288*6 28¿*ft I N I T I A L MONTH •OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO Rc f L E C t L A Î É RÉ Wf tT IN é PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS n Á ? 'T ¿ n w 4 RATIO PR IC ES SCALE RATIO SCALE CONSUMER P R IC E INDEX B E 6 IN N IN « JANUARY 1 9 7 « IS FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) . C P I- U DATA B E 6 1H M IM 6 1 0 8 9 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQ UIV ALENC E MEASURE FOR H O itf OW Æ RSh IP CO STS. PERCENTACES AJtE ANKUAL RATES OF CttAMCE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA P LO TTE D . IN D IC A T E D . A P R IL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRODUCER 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 SEASONALLY PR IC ES ADJUSTED PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PER IO DS LATEST DATA PLO TTED . A P R IL r a t i o scale 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 5 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, F I N I SHED CONSUMER FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE5 Ö P "CHAN5T " TERMINAL MONTH 1967 « N 1 CD I N I T I A L MONTH 9 - 8 4 10—84 1 1 - 8 4 10-6 4 -1 .5 11-64 -0 .4 0.4 12-64 1.0 2.2 T-'s nr 2-85 3—65 ^-8 5 5 -8 5 6-85 7-85 5=85 9-85 1 0 - 8 5 ' 11^83 TT^€5~“ T - Ï 6 1Ö0 '2-86'" 3 - 8 6 “ 27377 273V8 ■ 4 .0 27 4 .7 1-6 5 -0 .3 0.0 -0 .2 -4 * 3 ¿-65 -0 .4 -0 .1 -Ö .3 -2 .4 -0 .4 3-65 -1 .2 -1 .1 -1 .5 =377" -2 .8 -*> .l 4-6 5 -2 .0 -2 .1 —2 . 6 -4 .2 -4 .2 -6 .0 -6 .8 5 -8 5 -2 .9 -3 .2 -3 .8 —5 . 2 -5 .5 -7 .1 -8 .1 -9 .3 6—8 5 -2 .7 -2 .9 -3 .4 -4 .5 -4 .6 —5 . 6 -5 .7 -5 .2 273.7 2 7 3 .6 — 272-;^ 27 0 .8 266 . 6 ^0V7 2 6 8 .4 7-8 5 -1 .4 -1 .4 —1 . 6 -2 .4 -2 .0 -2 .4 -1 .6 5 .2 11.8 8-65 -2 .0 -2 .1 -2 .3 -3 .1 -2 .9 —3 . 3 -3 .0 -2 .0 0 .6 1.7 9 -8 5 -2 .8 -2 .9 -3 .2 —4 . 0 -4 .0 —4 . 5 —4 . 4 -3 .9 —2 . 4 -2 .9 -9 .6 10-65 -1 .1 -1 .1 -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .0 0.0 2.0 '2 .7 -O .i 4 .1 '21.7 Ô .0 0.0 0 .7 1 .8 3.8 4.8 3 .1 7.2 17.6 1 3 .6 0. 1 2 7 0 .9 -8 .1 269.0 - 1 1 '. 'O' 2 6 6 .4 ■ 27 0 .8 11-85 -0 .1 0.Ö 0.0 -0 .4 12—8 5 0 .7 0.9 0.9 Ö .7 1. 1 1.3 2.0 3.2 5.1 6 .1 5.0 8.6 16.0 13.3 13 . 0 1-8 6 0.2 0 .3 0 .3 Ö.0 0 .4 0.5 1.1 2.0 "3.5 4.1 2.9 5 .3 9Y8 6.0 2.4 2—86 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .0 —1. 3 -1 .1 -I. 1 —0 . 8 —0 .1 0 .9 1.2 -0 .3 1.1 3.7 -0 .3 -4 .6 -1 2 .7 -1 7 . 2 3 -8 6 -0 .7 — 0. 6 —0 . 7 -1 .Ö -0 .8 —U. 8 —0 . 4 u .z 1 .2 i.4 U .Z 1 .4 3.6 0 . 4 ' —Z . T -7 .4 - r.t> 7 .r" 4—86 —0 . 6 -0 .5 —0 . 6 —O. 8 —0 . 6 —0 . 6 -0 .3 "0 .3 ' T.2 ■ 1.4 0.3 1 .5 3.4 0.6 -5 .2 -4 .6 2 .5 “ 9 -8 4 10 - 8 4 11 -84 12 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 4-85 5 -8 5 6-85 7-85 8-8 5 11-85 12 -6 5 1-66 9- 8 5 10-85 773 . 7 -1 .8 2 7 6 .5 -7 . 1 2 7 4 .8 27 0 .5 211 .2 l . “6 2-6 6 3 -8 6 2-96" 3-86 2 7 1 .6 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MON THS AGO R E V I S E D TO R E F L E C T LATE K EPD K TING PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FIN IS H ED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS - annual ratr Te r m i n a l ÜONTH____________ _______ 9 - 8 4 T Ö ‘-Ö 4 11 -8 4 12^84 in it ia l 1-85 " 2 - 8 5 3-8 5 '^ 8 5 '3 - S 5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* or change------------------------ 19&7 * mon th ■ ¿ -«r 7-6 5 ' 8 ^ 8 5- 9^85 Ttf^85 11-85' T 2 - S 5 1^6' 10 -6 4 2 9 4 .7 1 1 -64 1 .6 3 .7 12-8 4 1.1 1.ir 0.0 1—85 0.9 1 .4 0.2 0 .4 29 5.6 Z 9 5 .7 2 -8 5 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0 .4 3—85 1 .0 1.3 ' 0.7 1 .0 1.2 2 .9 4-85 2.4 2 .9 2.7 3.4 4.4 6.9 4. 1 295.6 — 296.3 298.9 5-85 3. 0 3. 5 5 .1 6.9 9.0 7.0 6 —85 '2.2 2.6 2.4 2.8 3.3 4. 2 4.7 1. 6 -3 .5 7-65 2.0 2. 5 2.1 '2.4 “2 . 8 3 .4 3.6 1 .2 -1 .6 ir.iT 0» 11.1 3.4 1.7 1.9 1 .7 1.9 2. 1 2.5 274" 0 .4 -r.T -0 .8 " -2 .0 9 -8 5 l.l 1.2 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.4 ' 1.2 -0 .7 -2 .6 -2 .2 " —3 . 5 10-65 1. 7 1.8 1.7 1 .8 2.0 2.3 2.2“ 0.8 -0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 1.6 8.8 2 .4 2*8 2.7 1.6 0.7 1 .6 1 .9 3.2 7.7 6.6 I io q 3 0 0 .6 299.7 299.8 2 9 9 .3 —5 . 1 2 V 8. U 3 0 0 .1 11-65 2.0 2.2 2.1 2 .3 12—85 2.3 ■” 2 .5 “ 2.4 2 .6 " ' 2 . 8 3 7T~ 3.2 2.2 1'.'5 2.4" 2. 8 4 .1 7.3 6.6 1 -6 4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1 .7 2 .T- 2.Ö 1 .0 0.3 0.9 0.9 1 .5 3.3 1 .5 2-66 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0 .1 — 1.Ö -1 .8 —1 . 6 -1 .9 -1 .9 -1 .2 -3 .6 - 6 . 7 "-12.7 -1 7 .2 29 6. 5 3 -6 6 —0 . 6 —0 . 6 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 . 1 -1 .4 -2 .5 -3 .4 -3 .4 " -3 .8 -4 . 1 -3 .9 -0 .3 - 9 . Z ”- 1 4 . 0 - 1 6 . 8 - 1 6 . 4 292 . 1 4-8 6 -1 .1 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .8 -2 .1 -3 .1 -4 .0 -4 .1 -4 .6 -4 .9 —4 . 8 -6 .9 - 9 . 4 ~ -1 3 . 0 - 1 4 . 7 - 1 3 . 4T - 1 0 . 2 289.5 9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 1 2 -8 4 1-85 2-85 3—85 4-85 5 -8 5 6—85 7- 65 8- 8 5 9 - 8 5 1 0 -8 5 1.9 ' 0 .3 301.7 6.6 303.3 -1 .0 " -8 .0 11-6 5 1 2 -6 5 30 1 . 2 1-86 2 -8 6 3-86 I N I T I A L MONTH »DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO K t h L t C T L A 1t KtPOR T1NG PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 6 ' INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE 1967-100 135 SCALE 1967-100 135 S E A S O N A L L Y ADJ UST ED 130 130 +0. SX V | 25, I 125 . 125 s* 120 120 I 15 1 15 *J . *0. 4Z * 16. 3 zjj I 10 105 100 /) / v +9. SZJ / f - 1 10 -13. 6 z V -l i ■n W ' 7 9r 105 ’ 100 95 95 90 C * * % % % * * ?* > ^ $ i % Ì » 1 * ^ § ì i * t i. t t t ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ 1978 1 97 9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 90 1985 1986 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO OS IN D IC A T E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED» A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS IN D U S T R I A L P R O O U C T IO N C O M P O U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F CH AN G E TERMINAL in it ia l 1977 « m onth 100 MO NTH 9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 12 -8 4 1-85 2-8 5 3-85 4 -8 5 5-85 6-8 5 7-85 8-8 5 9-65 10-85 11-85 1 2 -8 5 1-86 2- 8 6 3- 8 6 122.7 10—64 - 5 .7 1 1 -8 4 0*5 7*1 12 -8 4 0.0 3 .0 -1 .0 1-85 0*7 3*0 1*0 2-8 5 0*8 2*5 1*0 2*0 1.0 3-8 5 1 .1 2 .6 1.5 2 .3 2.0 2.9 4-85 1.1 2*3 1*4 2*0 1 .6 2*0 1.0 5-85 1*0 2*0 1*1 1*6 1 .2 1.3 0.5 0.0 6 -8 5 1*1 2*0 1*3 1.6 1*4 1.5 1.0 1 .0 2.0 T —65 0.8 1*5 0*9 1*1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 -1 .9 123.4 123.3 123.6 3.0 12 3.7 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 8-85 1 .7 2 .4 1*9 2 .3 2.2 2.4 2*3 2.7 3.6 4.4 11.2 9-8 5 1 .5 2 .1 1*7 2 .0 1 .8 1. 9 1. 8 1. 9 2 .4 2.6 4 .9 —1 . 0 10 -8 5 o*e .W * 0 .9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0 .6 0.2 1.0 -3 .8 -6 .5 1 1 -8 5 1.5 . i_- o 1*6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 3. 2 0.6 1.4 10. 1 12 -6 5 2.0 2.6 2.2 2 .5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.5 2.9 4 .2 1 0 .0 10.0 1-86 2*1 2*6 2*3 2*5 2.5 2 .6 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 4.2 2.9 3.9 7.6 6 .4 1.6 1.6 1 .5 2.2 0.8 1. 2 125.2 125.1 12 4. 4 125.4 1 26 .4 2.9 12 6.7 2-8 6 1*4 1.8 1*5 1.7 1. 5 1.7 1.7 3.2 1.0 -3 .3 -9 .1 3-86 0.9 1.3 0.9 1. 0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 1 .0 -0 .4 -0 .3 1. 0 -1 .2 -4 .7 -8 .2 -7 .4 4 -8 6 0.9 1.3 1 .0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 -0 .1 0.0 1.1 -0 .6 -3 .1 -5 .0 -2 .8 9 - 8 4 1 0 -8 4 11 - 8 4 12 -8 4 1-8 5 2-85 3- 8 5 4-85 5-65 6- 8 5 8-85 9—8^ in it ia l 11- 65 12 -8 5 125 .7 L24.9P 1 .9 1 2 5 . IP “1 - 8 * “ ì -è i —5-6è h o n Th P R E L IM IN A R Y “> A E > A ftc tr& v r e o p u L NAY 15 , 1986 7 réserve &a n k op st. l o u is PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS INCOME RATIO MONTHLY T O T A L S AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOLLARS TRILLIONS S E A S ON A L L Y AD J US T E D OF SCALE DOLLARS 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3. I 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2. 2.0 I I .9 . 1.8 I .7 I .6 1. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1 98 5 1 986 SOURCE» U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D . LATE ST DATA PLOTTED» A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS PERSONAL INCOME TERMINAL MONTH BI LLI O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L MONTH 9- 8 4 1 0 -8 4 1 1 - 8 4 1 2 - 8 4 1-85 2- 8 5 3- 8 5 4 -8 5 5- 8 5 6-85 7-85 8-8 5 9 - 8 5 10—85 11-85 12 -85 1-8 6 CD c 3 .6 6.6 1 2 -8 4 5 .4 7 .9 9.2 3.8 3,1 84.0 1- 6 5 5t9 6*5 2 -6 5 6r? 7 .8 8.2 7.7 11.7 3 -8 5 5 .9 7.0 7 .2 6.5 7.9 4.1 1 CO 3,207.4 6 .4 6. 8 7. 8 8.1 7.8 9.2 7.9 3,2 17.3 3,2 47.2 3 ,258.2 11.8 3 ,2 80.6 5 -8 5 5. 1 5.7 5.6 4.8 5 .1 3.0 2.4 -6 .2 6 -8 5 4.9 5. 4 5.3 4.6 4.8 3. 1 2.8 -1 .5 3 .5 7-85 4.7 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.6 3 .2 3.0 0.2 3 .5 8-85 4.5 4.9 4 .7 4.1 4.2 3.0 2.8 0.6 3.0 2.8 2.0 9 -8 5 4.6 4.9 4.8 4 .3 4.3 3.3 3.2 1.6 3.6 3.6 3 .7 5.4 10-8 5 4.8 5 .2 5.0 4.6 4 .7 3.9 3.9 2.6 4 .4 4.7 5.1 6.6 11-85 4.9 5.3 5 .1 4 .8 4 .9 4.2 4.2 3 .1 4.7 5.0 5 .4 6 .5 7.1 6.3 5 .8 5 .8 5.5 5.7 5 .1 5.2 4 .4 6 .0 6 .4 7.0 8 .3 9.3 10 .0 1 3 .9 5.5 5 .4 5. 1 5.3 4 .7 4.7 4.0 5 .3 5.6 5.9 6.7 7.1 6.8 7.1 0.7 5 .5 5.4 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.8 4. 1 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.5 6 .8 6.5 6.6 3.1 5.6 1 -8 6 3-86 3,1 6 7 .2 0.6 u -8 4 12-85 2 -3 6 3,271.2 3,2 8 0 .5 3.5 3,2 9 0 .0 3 ,2 95.5 3,3 09.9 7.8 3,3 30.8 3,3 47.9 3,3 8 4 .3 3,386.3 2 -8 6 5 .2 3- 8 6 5 .0 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.0 4 .5 4.6 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.4 2.8 3.8 2.1 4-8 6 5 .5 5.8 5. 8 5.5 5.7 5.2 5 .3 4.8 5.9 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.2 5.7 7.4 8 .2 9- 8 4 10 -84 1 1-8 4 12 -84 1-85 2-85 3- 8 5 4 -8 5 5- 8 5 6-85 7-85 8-85 11-05" l ¿ - 6 5 1-8 6 9- 6 5 T ò - ò * 3,4 0 1 .7 3 ,4 07.5 14.8 3,446.9P ?-86~ ”3 - 8 6 " I N I T I A L 1HONTH P - PRELIMINARY ~pRÊPARÉD BY ÉËDÉRAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS MAY 2 1 , 1986 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1 97 8 RATIO DOLLARS 1979 1980 1981 BILLIONS ADJ U ST ED seasonally 1 98 2 1983 1 984 SOURCE« U .S . OF 1 985 SCALE DOLLARS 1 98 6 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D . LATE ST DATA PLOTTED« MARCH, A P R IL ADVANCE ES TIM A TE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS RE TAIL SALES _______________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________________ 0 1 00 * 1 00 TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________ MILLIONS OF MONTH DOLLARS 3 -8 5 9-84 1 1 -8 4 1 2 - 8 4 5-8 5 6-85 9 -8 5 10-85 11-85 12 -8 5 1-85 2-85 7- 8 5 8-8 5 1-86 2- 8 6 3-86 7*7 108 *816 U -8 4 10*| 1 2 .6 10 9,899 12 -8 4 7.4 7.2 2.0 6.7 6.4 3.4 4.8 8.6 8 .8 7.6 10 .6 10 -8 4 2-85 110,078 110,511 16 .6 111,935 3 -6 5 7.3 7. 2 5.8 7.2 8 .4 0 .7 4-6 5 1 0 .0 1 0 .4 9 .9 12 .0 14 .5 13 .5 2 7 .9 5-85 8.6 8 .7 8.0 9.3 1 0 .4 8.5 12 .6 -0 .9 6-85 6.8 6.7 5.8 6.5 6.8 4 .5 5.8 -3 .7 -6 .5 7-65 7 .0 6.9 6.2 6 .9 7.2 5.4 6.7 0.4 1.0 9 .1 8-65 8 .2 8 .3 7.8 8.6 9.1 7 .9 9.4 5 .2 7.4 15 .0 1 3 .4 2 0 .9 111,999 114,316 114,232 113,599 114,430 21.2 116,276 9-6 5 10 .1 1 0 .4 10.1 11.1 11 .9 11 .3 13.1 1 0 .4 27 .2 33.6 10 -85 5.7 5 .5 4 .9 5.2 5.2 3.8 4 .3 0.8 1 .2 3.2 1. 2 -7 .5 -3 5 .9 1 1 -8 5 5.8 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.2 4.6 1.7 2.1 3.9 2 .7 -2 .9 -17 .2 7.0 12 -85 6.4 6.3 5 .8 6.2 6.3 5.3 5.8 3.4 4.0 5.8 5.2 1 .5 -7 .4 11.4 1 5 .9 1 -8 6 6.3 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.2 5.3 5.8 3.6 4. 1 5 .7 5.2 2.2 -4 .4 9.2 10 .4 119*118 114,765 115,433 116,861 5.1 117 ,34 9 2-6 6 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.6 4.7 5.1 3.0 3.5 4.8 4.2 1.6 -3 .8 6.4 6 .3 1.8 -1 .5 11 7, 20 0 3-66 4.9 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.4 3 .5 3.7 1. 8 2.0 3.0 2.3 -0 .2 -4 .9 2.9 1.9 -2 .4 - 5 . 9 -1 0 .1 1 1 6 , 165P 4 -6 6 5.0 4.8 4.4 4 .5 4 .5 3.7 3.9 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.8 0.7 -3 .3 3.5 2.8 -0 .2 -1 .9 -2 .1 6.6 9 -8 4 10-84 11-84 12-64 1- 8 5 2-85 3 -6 5 4 -8 5 5 -8 5 6-85 7 -6 5 8-85 9 -8 5 10 -8 5 11-85 12 -8 5 1-86 2-86 3-86 I M T I a l tttoTW ■" ■ 116,7886 ' P - PRELIMINARY E - ESTIMATED PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS HAY 1 3 , 19*6 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION» BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER____________________________________________________ ____________ 1977«1PQ QUARTER 3 - 8 4 . érte. 1-85 2-65 2-0 1 1-82 1-8 3 2-83 1- 8 4 . 2 - 8 4 3 -8 5 3 -a i 4 -8 1 2- 8 2 3-82 4-82 3 -8 3 4- 6 3 4-85 3—81 9.3 A.-Pi 1 7.7 1 4 5. 3 1 4 7 .5 6.2 1 51 .2 1- 3 ? 8.6 8 .3 1 0 .4 ?~fì? 8 .2 7.9 8.7 7.1 15 3.8 i-ñ? ft « 1 7.8 8.3 7.3 7. S 4-82 7.5 7 .1 7.3 6.3 5.9 4.4 1-6 3 7.1 6.7 6.8 5.9 5 .5 4 .5 4.6 2-fi 3 6 .6 6.2 6 .2 5.4 5.0 4.2 4..1 3.5 3-fl3 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.8 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.5 1.5 4 -flì 5 .9 5 .6 5.5 4.8 4 .4 . 3 .8 3.7 3.3 3.2 1 5 6 .6 15 8. 3 1 6 0. 1 16 1. 5 1 6 2. 1 16 4. 1 5.0 1-8 4 5.8 5.5 5.4 4.8 4 .5 4 .0 3.9 3 .7 3.8 5.0 5 .0 2—fi4 5 .6 5 .3 5.2 4 .7 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.2 3 .4 3—64 S- S 5 .2 5.1 4 .A 4.3 3.9 3 .8 3 .7 3.7 4.3 4. 1 3 . í» 4 —84 5 .3 5 .0 4.9 4 .4 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 4 .1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 1- 8 5 5 .3 S.O . 4 .9 4.5 4.2 _ 3.9 3.9 3.8 3 .8 4.2 4.0 3 .8 3.9 3.9 4 .8 2-ft5 5.2 5 .0 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.2 4 .1 3 .9 4.1 4.1 4 .6 3- 6 5 5.7 4-9 4 .8 4.5^ 4.0 4.0 3. 9 3.9 4.2 4. 1 4.0 4. 1 4.1 4-85 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3 .9 4.0 1- 8 6 4.9 4 .6 4.5 4.2 4.0 3 .8 3 .7 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 2-81 3-81 4 -8 1 1-82 2- 82 3- 8 2 4-82 1-8 3 2-8 3 3-8 3 4 -8 3 1- 8 4 166 .1 16 7.5 3.9 169. 1 17 0. 4 17 2. 4 4.5 1 74 .3 4.5 4 .3 _ 4.2 176. 1 4 .0 4.2 4 .0 3 .8 3 .5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4-8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 3- 8 5 4 -8 5 1 7 7. 6 17 8. 2 I N I T I A L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS* BUSINESS SECTOR ________ CflflPQ W P E P -A N m M l-BATES QF CHAfttE________ TERMINAL QUARTER 1977*100 I N I T I A L QUARTER 2- 81 3- 8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 2-8 2 3 -6 2 4-82 3-ft 1 2.4 4-61 -1 .8 -5 .8 1- 6 2 -1 .2 -2 .9 2 -8 2 -0 .5 -1 .4 0.8 1.6 3 -8 2 -0 .3 -1 .0 0 .7 1.0 0 .4 4 -8 2 0 .2 -0 .2 1 .2 1.6 1 .6 2 .8 1 -6 3 0.9 5.2 2-63 1-8 3 2 -8 3 3- 83 4- 8 3 1-84 2-84 3 -8 4 4-84 1-85 2- 6 5 3 -8 5 4-65 1 0 1 .3 99.8 0 .0 99.8 10 0. 2 100.3 1 0 1 .0 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 4.0 1.2 2.5 3 .0 3.3 4 .3 5.0 4.8 102.3 10 3. 5 3 -6 3 1 .2 l.l 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.3 2.4 0 .0 4-63 1 .1 1 .0 1 .9 2.2 2.2 2 .6 2.6 1.7 0.2 1 0 3. 5 0.4 103.6 1 -6 4 1.5 1. 4 2.2 2.5 2.7 3 .0 3.1 2.5 1 .8 2.7 5.1 2 -8 4 1.6 1.5 2 .2 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.5 1 .9 2.6 3 .7 2 .3 3 -6 4 1.4 1.3 2 .5 2.4 1.9 1.4 1 .7 2 .2 0 .8 -0 .8 4-6 4 1. 2 1.1 1-65 1 .2 1.1 2 -8 5 1.2 1.1 2.0 10 4.9 10 5 .5 1 0 5. 3 2.2 2.2 1 .7 1 .9 1.9 2 .1 2.0 1 .5 1 .0 1 .2 1.4 0.1 -0 .9 -1 .1 1.7 1.8 1. 8 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.4 -0 .3 0.0 1. 1 1.6 1.7 1 .7 1 .9 1.8 1.4 1 .0 1.1 1.2 0 .5 0.0 0 .3 1.0 1 0 5 .0 10 5 .3 1 0 5 .5 0 .8 10 5 .9 . 3-65 1.2 1.1 1»6 1*7 1.7 1.9 1.7 1 .4 1. 0 1.2 1.3 0 .6 0.3 0 .6 1. 1 1.1 1. 5 4 -6 5 0.9 0 .8 1.3 1. 3 1.3 1 .4 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .5 -1 .1 -3 .7 1-66 1.0 0.9 1 .3 1.4 1 .4 1 .5 1 .4 1.0 0 .7 0.8 0.8 0 .3 0 .0 0 .1 0.4 0.2 0 .0 -0 .8 2. 3 2- 8 1 3- 81 4 -8 1 1-82 2- 8 2 3- 8 2 4-82 1- 83 2-83 3-8 3 4- 8 3 1 -8 4 2-84 3 -8 4 4-6 4 1-65 2-85 3-65 4 -8 5 104.9 1 0 5 .5 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 2 9 , 1986 10 PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR C O S T S * R A T I O SCALE 1977-100 R A T I O SCALE 1977-100 SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED s o m e I U .S . K fA K T W e M T O f I ABO* P E R C E N T A ttS ARE AM W A L RATES OP C H A M « FOR PER IO DS IM O IC A T E D . L A T ItT X BATA P IO T T E * . IS T OÖARTER R E V IS E ! FROM I # 4 7 . PREPARED BY PEP ER A I RESERVE BANK O f S T . L 0 9 IS U N I T LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE 1977*100 IM U IA L . WÄRTER QUARTER -2=31__ 1=31__ <t=31__ lz£2__ 2=22__ 3-82 ±=32__ 1=31__ 2=31__ 3~83 ¥-83__ 1-84 2-84: . ..3t84 4 -8 4 __ 1 ^ 5 __ 2=31__ 1=31__ 4-8? 7.0 4-8 1 1- 82 . 1 4 3 .5 9 . 7 ___12 .? _2±2___11*5 2 -82 8.8 3-82 8 .5 ___ 8 .0 4-82 9 .4 ■JL47jl8— 10*4 151t5 1 .9 ___ ^ A _ 7 .6 15 3 . 5 7 .2 J L tl____ 1 x1 ____ Î llÔ ____4 t £ ____4 * 2 _6^2____ it±l 156 . 2 1,3 156.7 1-83 6.1 2 -Î3 5 .1 4.9 3.7 2.4 1.6 -0 .2 —0 . 9 -1 .5 3-8 3 4 .7 4.5 3.4 2 .2 1 .6 0 .3 -0 .1 0.0 1 .5 4-8 3 4.7 4.5 3.5 2 .6 2 .1 1.1 1. 1 1. 5 3 .1 4.7 1 -6 4 4.3 4 .0 3.1 2.3 1 .8 0 .9 0.9 1. 1 2.1 2.3 0.0 2 -8 4 4.0 3 .7 2.9 2 .1 1. 7 0 .9 0.8 1.1 1.7 1. 8 0.4 0 .8 3 -8 4 4 .1 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.4 1 .4 1 .7 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.8 4.9 4-8 4 4.1 3.9 3.2 2 .5 2.3 1 .7 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.9 2 .5 3.3 4 .6 4.3 1 -8 5 4.1 3 .9 3.2 2 .6 2.4 1.9 2 .0 2 .3 2.8 3 .0 2.7 3.4 4.3 4.0 3.7 2 -8 5 4.0 3 .8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.1 2 .1 2 .4 2 .9 3. 1 2 .8 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3-85 3.9 3.8 3.2 2 .7 2 .5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2 .9 3 .1 2.8 3 .3 3.8 3 .5 3.3 3.1 2 .7 4-8 5 4.1 4.0 3 .5 3 .0 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.4 3 .9 4.4 4 .3 4 .3 4 .5 5.0 7 .4 1 -8 6 3.9 3.7 3 .2 2 .8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2 .9 3.1 2.9 3.3 3 .6 3 .4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 -0 .9 2-8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 2- 8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 1-8 3 2-Ö3 3 -d 3 4-63 1-84 2 -8 4 3-84 4-8 4 1-8 5 2-85 3- 8 5 4-85 3 .4 1 5 6 .0 1 5 6 .6 1 5 8 .4 158.4 1 5 8 .7 16 0 .6 16 2 .3 préparëô MAY 2 9 , 11 ôy 1986 1 6 3. 8 federal 1 6 5 .2 1 6 6 .3 Re s e r v e 1 6 9 .3 bank 1 6 8 .9 lo u is GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL_________________ _________________________________________ ________I N I T I A L W è* TE R ____________________________________________________________ DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3-8 4 4-8 4 3 -$ 3 i-8 4 1-85 3-8 5 4 -8 5 2 -S 5 4-62 2 -6 4 2- 8 2 3-8 2 2-81 3-81 4- 8 1 1-62 4~* * I-* ? .2-9 3 . 3 -61 11.3 4-81 6 .5 3 * 09 ? .6 3* 11 4. 4 1. 9 1 -6 2 4.2 0 .8 -0 .2 2-82 4.7 2.6 2.9 6.2 3,112.6 3-82 4,3 2.6 2.8 4 .3 2.5 4 -8 2 4.3 2.9 3.1 4.3 3.4 4.2 7.2 3,1 5 9 .5 3 ,179.4 3 ,212.5 1- 8 3 4.7 3.6 3 .9 5.0 4 .6 5.7 2-8 3 .5*6 4.8 5.3 6 .4 6.5 7 .9 9.7 12.3 3-8 3 6.0 5t3 5.8 6.8 7 .0 8.1 9.4 10.6 8. 9 4-83 6.5 6.0 6 .5 7.5 7.8 8.9 10 .0 11.0 10.4 11.8 1-64 7.4 7.1 7.7 8.7 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.5 12.5 14 .4 17.0 2-64 7.6 7. 3 7.8 8.7 9.1 10.0 11 .0 11.8 11.7 1 2 .6 13.0 9.1 3-84 7 .5 7.1 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 10.8 10.5 10.9 10. 6 7.5 6 .0 4-8 4 7 .2 6.9 7.3 8.1 8.3 8.9 9 .5 9.8 9 .4 9. 5 9.0 6 .4 5.1 4 .3 1- 8 5 7.2 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.1 8.7 9.2 9. 5 9. 1 9 .1 8.6 6.6 5.7 5.6 6 .9 2-85 7.0 6.8 7 .1 7.7 7.8 8.3 8 .7 8.9 8.5 8. 4 7.9 6.1 5 .4 5.2 5.7 4.5 8.6 8.2 8.1 7.6 6.1 5.5 5.4 5.7 5. 1 5.8 3,268.7 3 ,3 6 5 .1 3 ,4 3 7 .5 3,535.0 3 ,6 7 6 .5 3,757.5 3 ,8 1 2 .2 3 ,8 52.5 3,917.5 3,960.6 4 ,0 16.9 3 -8 5 7.0 6.7 7.0 7.6 7.7 8.1 8 .5 4-8 5 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.3 7.4 7 .8 8 .1 8 .2 7. 8 7.7 7. 2 5 .8 5.3 5. 2 5.4 4.9 5.0 4.3 1-66 6.8 6. 5 6.8 7 .3 7.3 7.7 8.0 8 .0 7 .6 7.5 7.1 5 .9 5.4 5. 3 5.5 5 .2 5.4 5 .3 6.3 2-81 3-8 1 4 -8 1 1-82 2- 8 2 3-82 4 -8 2 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4-6 3 1 -8 4 2- 8 4 3 -8 4 4-84 1-85 2 -8 5 3-85 4- 8 5 4 ,0 59.3 4,1 21.3 I N I T I A L QUAK ER GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS ___COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE____ 2-8 1 3-81 4-6 1 BI LL IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3-8 2 4-62 1-83 2-83 3-63 4 -8 3 1- 8 4 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-65 2 -6 5 3 -8 5 4-85 3 ,2 6 4 .6 1 .8 -1 .9 3,2 19.0 -5 .5 3 ,1 7 0 .4 -5 .9 1-82 -3 .3 2-82 -2 .2 -3 .4 -2 .4 1.2 3-8 2 -2 .4 -3 .4 -2 .7 -1 .0 -3 .2 4-6 2 -1 ,9 -2 .6 -1 .9 -0 .5 -1 .3 0.6 -5 .7 3 ,1 79.9 3,1 54.5 3,1 59.3 3,1 90.6 1 -6 3 -1 .1 -1 .5 -0 .7 0.6 0 .4 2.3 4.0 2-8 3 0.1 -0 .1 0.8 2 .2 2.5 4.5 6.4 8 .9 3-8 3 0.6 0.4 1 .3 2 .6 2.8 4.4 5.7 6.5 4.3 4-8 3 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.3 3.7 5.1 6.3 7.0 6. 1 8.0 1-84 2.2 2.2 3.1 4.3 4.8 6.1 7.3 8 .1 7.9 9.7 11.4 2-84 2.4 2 .5 3.3 4.4 4.8 6.0 6.9 7.5 7. 2 8. 1 8.2 3,2 5 9 .3 3,2 9 3 .4 3,3 5 7 .2 3 ,44 9 .4 5.1 3,4 92.6 3 ,5 10.4 3-8-4 2.4 2.4 3.2 4.2 4 .5 5.5 6.2 6 .6 6.1 6.6 6.1 3 .6 4 -8 4 2.3 2.3 3 .0 3.8 4.1 4.9 5 .5 5.7 5.2 5.4 4.7 2.6 1.3 0 .6 1-85 2.4 2.4 3.0 3 .8 4.1 4.8 5 .3 5.4 5 .0 5.1 4.5 2.9 2 .1 2 .1 3.7 2-8 5 2 .3 2.3 2.9 3 .6 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.0 4 .5 4.5 3.9 2.5 1.9 1.8 2 .4 1.1 3-85 2 .3 2.4 2.9 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.3 4 .3 3.8 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 3 ,5 1 5 .6 3,5 4 7 .8 3 ,5 5 7 .4 3,5 8 4 .1 3 .0 3,5 9 0 .8 4-6 5 2.2 2.3 2.8 3 .4 3.5 4.1 4 .4 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.4 2.3 1.9 1. 8 2.1 1 .6 1 .9 0.7 1-86 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 4 .0 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 2 .1 2.5 2.2 3.7 2-81 3-81 4-61 1-82 2 -8 2 3-8 2 4-82 1-83 2-6 3 3 -8 3 4-63 1- 8 4 ¿—84 3— 84 4-84 l-S T 2-85 3-85 4 -8 5 3 ,6 2 3 .5 i N Í t t Á L QUAftTfft PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 2 0 , 1986 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O SCALE Q UARTERLY TOTAL S T R I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS SE ASONALLY R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF DOL LARS 4. 6 AT ANNUAL RA TE S ADJUSTED 4.4 4.2 4. 0 3. 8 3. 6 3.4 3.2 3. 0 2.8 4 .1 4. 0 3. 9 3. 8 3.7 3. 6 3. 5 3. 4 3. 3 3.2 3 .1 3. 0 2. 9 2.8 2.7 1978 979 1980 981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE« U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN DIC ATE D. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1ST OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 13 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE 1978 RATIO 1 979 *A S USED IN NATIO N AL 1 980 1981 1 982 1 983 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1 984 1985 SCALE 1 98 6 SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S IN D IC A T E D . LATE ST DATA PLOTTED» 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS I M P L I C I T PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT __________ ÇOMPQUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________ 1982 - I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL WÄRTER 3 -8 1 3-8 1 9.4 4 -e l 8 .8 8.3 4-81 1-82 2-82 <NI to 1 £— 81 4- 8 2 1-83 2-8 3 3 -8 3 4-63 1 -8 4 2-84 3 -8 4 4-84 1-85 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 94.9 96 .6 1-82 7 .8 7 .1 5.9 2-82 7.1 6.4 5.4 5.0 3-82 6.8 6.2 5 .5 5.4 5.8 4 -8 2 6 .3 5 .7 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.6 1-63 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.3 4 .0 3 .2 2 .8 2-83 5.5 4.9 4.4 4 .1 3 .8 3 .2 3.0 3-6 3 5.4 4 .9 4 .4 4.2 4 .0 3.6 4 -8 3 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 1-84 5 .2 4 .8 4 .4 4 .2 4.1 3.8 2-6 4 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.1 4 .0 98 ,2 99 .4 10 0.8 3.8 10 1 .7 10 2 .4 3.2 10 3.2 3.6 3 .9 4.7 10 4 .4 3.5 3.8 4 .1 3.5 3 .8 4.1 4.4 4 .3 5.0 3.8 4 .0 4 .3 4.1 4.4 10 5.3 106.6 107.6 3.8 1 0 8 .6 3 -6 4 5.0 4.6 4 .3 4 .1 4 .0 3.8 3 .8 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.8 4 -8 4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 4 .0 3.8 3 .8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4 .1 3 .8 3 .8 3.7 1—65 4.7 4 .4 4 .1 4 .0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.8 3 .9 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 2-85 4*6 4.3 4.1 3.9 3 .8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3 .8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3 .3 3 -8 5 4 .5 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3 .6 3 .4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 .1 2 .9 4 -6 5 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3 .6 3.6 3 .7 3.6 3 .6 3 .4 3 .3 3.2 3.1 3 .2 3.1 3.3 1-86 4 .4 4.1 3 .9 3.7 3 .6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3 .6 3 .5 3 .5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 3 -6 1 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3- 62 4- 8 2 1-83 2-8 3 3- 8 3 4- 6 3 1- 84 2-64 3 -8 4 4-64 1- 6 5 2 -8 5 3-85 4—65 2-81 100 4 -8 5 1 0 9. 6 1 1 0 .4 3 .0 11 1 .3 11 2. 1 1 1 3 .0 1 1 3 .7 I N I T I A L QUARTER REPAREE) 6V FÉDÉRAL RESERVE RANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 20*1986 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________ COHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________ T ERMI NAL QUARTER INITIAL 4-81 _ 1-92 2-82 3-92 4-02 1-03 2-83 3-83 4-0 3 1-94 2-94 3-04 4-04 1-05 CD 1 3-01 3-91 fV! 2 -9 1 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT E S QUARTER 3-95 4—05 1*940.9 ? t 7 4-01 4.0 1,960.2 1-92 5.9 7.6 1,996.3 2.023.0 2-02 £*7 ?t7 <>t6 _ 5*6 3-62 7.1 6.4 7*2 7.1 9.5 4-02 7.6 7.2 9.0 8.1 9.4 10.3 1-83 7.3 6.9 7*5 7.5 8.1 7.9 2-03 8,0 7.7 9.3 9.5 9*2 9.4 9.0 12.5 3-03 9.0 7.9 9.3 9.5 9.0 9.2 8.8 10.4 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,146.0 5.6 2,210.1 8.4 2,254.9 2,306.3 4-8 3 0.1 9*0 9*5 9.6 9.1 9.2 8.9 10.1 8.9 9.4 1-64 8.3 9*1 8.6 9.7 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 2-84 9*4 8*3 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.9 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8 3-84 9.1 7*9 8*3 9.3 9.6 8.7 9.4 8.9 8.2 8.2 7.7 6.9 4-04 9.0 7.8 8.2 9*2 9.5 8.5 8.2 8.6 8.0 7.9 7.5 6.9 5.5 6.9 1-85 7.9 7.8 8.1 8. 1 9.4 8.4 8.1 8.5 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.2 7.2 7.4 2-85 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.0 9.2 8.2 9.0 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.2 6.9 6.9 2,358.6 2,414.4 4.1 2,439.0 2,400.1 2,525.0 6.2 2,563.3 2,606.1 3-05 7.9 7*6 7.9 7.9 9.1 8.1 7.9 8.1 7.6 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.3 6.9 __ 6 . 8 6.5 6.0 4-05 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7,3 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.0 5.7 4.5 1-06 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.5 4.9 5.3 2-91 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-92 3-82 4-82 1-03 2-83 3-83 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-04 1-05 2-95 3-85 4-05 IN ITIAL 2,634.0 2,669.1 QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E XPENDI T URE S I N 1982 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE____________ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S 4-91 1-82 2-92 3-9 2 4-02 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-03 1-94 2-94 * 3-91 CD 2-9*' w 1 I N I T I A L QUARTER T ERMI NAL QUARTER 4-04 1-85 2-95 3-95 4-05 2,031.5 3-01 1.9 4-01 -0.2 -2.2 1-02 0.6 0.0 2.2 2-02 0.9 0.6 2.1 1.9 3-02 1.2 1.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 4-02 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.7 5.3 2,020.0 2,031.2 2,041.0 2,051.0 2,070.7 1-03 2.1 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.4 3.4 2-03 2.9 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.6 5.7 8.0 3-03 3.0 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.4 6.3 2,096.4 2,137.2 4.7 2,161.8 4-03 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.9 4.9 5.0 1-04 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.6 4.6 4.2 2-04 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.0 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.9 3.0 0.1 2,100.1 2,210.9 2,243.0 3-04 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.4 4—0 4 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.1 1.7 3.4 1-05 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 2.7 4.1 4.9 2.7 3.6 3.7 2.6 2,243.4 2,262.0 2,208.6 2-05 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3-05 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.0 3.6 4-05 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.3 0.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.1 4.2 1-93 2-63 3-03 4-03 1-04 2-94 3-04 4-04 1-05 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9 2-91 3-01 4-01 1-92 2-02 5-02 4-02 2,303.5 4.6 2,329.6 2,330.4 2,354.3 I N I T I A L QUARTER RREPAREO T V FEDER AI RESERVE "SANK OF S T . LO U IS MAY 20* 1906 15 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ---------------------- C fr1 * W ttEP ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_____________ TEKMIHAL QUARTER 2- 8 1 2 -8 2 3-82 4 -8 2 1-83 2- 8 3 4—63 3-8 3 1-8 4 2-8 4 3 -8 4 4-8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 3—85 4-85 535.9 -21*8 5 0 4 .0 l-S ? -1 4 .2 -26*5 -30 * 9 2-8 2 -9 .2 -16*6 -13*8 3-Ô2 -9 .9 -15*6 -13*5 459.5 7*4 467.8 -3*2 -12*7 4-8 2 ril4*2 - 1 9 * 3 - 1 8 * 7 - 1 4 . 2 - 2 3 . 3 1 -8 3 -_10 .4 -1 4 * 3 - 1 2 * 7 452.2 -3 2 .7 409.6 -7* 5 -12*0 -11*7 15*9 9 .4 39.5 67.8 425.0 2-83 -3*1 -5*7 4*2 3*4 3-83 0*5 -1*4 1*9 8*8 9.0 15.3 37 .9 50.4 34. 8 4-8 3 4*7 3*4 7*1 14 .0 15 .1 21.6 41.0 50. 5 42.6 50 .8 1-64 9 .3 8.6 12 .6 19.7 21.6 t**\ 00 (M 46 .3 5 5 .0 51 .0 59 .8 69 .2 2-8 4 9.3 8 .7 1 2 .3 18 .5 2 5 .5 39 .3 44 .5 39 .2 40.7 35 .9 9.1 3-8 4 9*3 8 .7 12*0 1 7 .5 18 .7 2 3 .3 3 4 .5 37 .9 32 .5 3 2 .0 26.2 9.0 9.0 4-8 4 8 .1 7.4 10*3 15 .1 15 .9 19. 6 2 8 .5 3 0 .4 25.0 23*2 17.1 3.5 0.9 24*4 10*9 483.7 5 2 1 .2 577*6 6 5 8 .8 673.3 687 . 9 -6 .6 6 7 6 .2 6*7 6.0 8*5 12*7 13*2 16*2 19*2 16*8 -0 .2 -3 .1 -8 * 6 -1 0 * 6 2-85 6*9 6*3 8*6 12*4 12*9 15*5 22*0 2 2 .6 17.9 15.7 10.7 1.7 -0 .1 -2 .9 -1 .0 9.6 3-85 6*2 5*6 7*7 11 .2 11 .5 13.8 19.3 19.7 15.3 13. 0 8.5 0 .7 -0 .9 -3 .2 -2 .0 2.6 -3 .9 4-6 5 6.4 5.8 7.8 11.0 11.3 13 .4 18 .4 18.7 14.6 12 .6 8.6 1.9 0 .7 -0 .8 0.7 4.7 2.4 9.1 1-8 6 7*2 6.6 8.6 11.7 12.0 14 .0 18.7 19 .0 15.3 13.5 10.0 4.2 3.5 2.6 4 .6 8.8 8.5 15 .4 22.0 2-8 1 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-8 2 4 -8 2 1-83 2-8 3 3-8 3 4- 6 3 1-84 2-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-65 CD 1 -8 5 23*4 T •l" -2*7 657.6 672.8 6 6 6 .1 680.7 715.4 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 DOLLARS ________ ÇQHPOVNPEP ANNUAL *ATÇ? QF ÇHànQE________ TERMINAL QUARTER I NI TI AL 2 -8 1 3-8 1 3-81 4 -8 1 1- 8 2 2-82 3-8 2 4 -8 2 1-83 2- 8 3 BI LL IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 3-83 4 -6 3 1-84 2-84 3 -8 4 4-84 1-85 2- 8 5 3- 8 5 4-85 560*7 7 .1 4-8 1 -11*7 -2 7 .2 517.9 1-62 -20*5 - 3 1 . 5 2-8 2 -15*2 -21*5 -18*5 3-62 -15*2 -2 0 .0 -1 7 .4 464*2 -3 5 .5 4-8 2 -1 8 t 1 -2 2 .3 1 -8 3 -1 4 .1 2 -6 3 -5 .8 -7 .5 -3*8 -2 1 .1 -17*2 - 1 5 . 0 467.5 2*9 446.6 - 6 * 6 -1 5 * 2 408.8 -1 5 .6 -2 3 .5 -3 1 .0 -9 .0 4*3 - 1 2 * 6 -1 1 *3 14*1 12*2 43 .1 4*6 422.5 489.0 79.4 526.3 3-8 3 -2 * 0 -3*1 0*9 8 .7 9.9 17 .3 40. 1 55 .2 34 .2 4—63 1 .8 1*2 5*5 13*1 14*9 22*1 40.9 5 1 .1 38.7 4 3 .4 1-64 6*1 6*0 10*5 18.2 20.6 27.9 4 4 .7 53.6 4 5 .9 52 .1 61.3 2-8 4 6*3 6.3 10 .4 17.2 19 .1 25.0 4 3 .4 35.6 36.0 32 .5 8 .8 3 -8 4 6 .4 6.3 10.0 1 6 .0 17.6 2 2 .5 33.0 36.4 29 .2 27.9 23 .2 7 .6 6.4 5*1 8*4 13*6 14 .8 18. 7 27 .1 2 9 .0 22 .1 19 .8 14.6 2.2 -0 .9 4-6 4 1-85 4.0 2 -85 4.4 3-8 5 3.8 _ O . 17.0 -4 .3 1-82 o o _ 3-81 4-8 1 4—81 3—81 CD _ BI LL IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 575.9 649.0 662.9 673.3 -7 .7 659.9 639.6 3*8 6.7 11*3 12 .1 15 .2 22.0 2 3 .0 16. 6 13 .9 8.8 -1 .4 -4 .7 -9 .8 4,3 7*0 11*2 11.9 14. 8 20 .8 21.6 15.8 13.4 9.0 0.8 -1 .1 -3 .5 -1 .3 10.4 3*6 6*0 9*9 1 0 .4 1 2 .9 18.0 1 8 .4 13.1 10 .7 6.7 -0 .4 -2 .2 -4 .2 -3*0 1 .7 —6*3 0.0 6.8 -1 1 .7 655.6 645.0 6 5 5.7 4-8 5 3.9 3.8 6.1 9.6 1 0 .1 1 2 .4 17.1 17 .3 12 .4 1 0 .3 6.7 0 .6 -0 .7 -2 .1 —0*6 3 .4 1 -8 6 4*5 4*4 6*6 10*0 10*5 12 .7 17 .0 17 .2 12.8 1 0 .8 7.7 2.4 1.5 0 .7 2*5 6.4 5.1 11 .4 16 .1 2 -8 1 3-81 4 -8 1 1- 8 2 2 -8 2 3-8 2 4 -8 2 1-8 3 2 -8 3 3- 8 3 4-83 1-84 2-8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -6 5 3- 8 5 4-85 680.7 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MAY 20* 1986 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS ANO SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________ TERMINAL QUARTER _ 2 -8 l I N I T I A L QUARTER 3 -8 1 _ 4- 8 1 1-82 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 4- 6 3 1- 8 4 2-84 3—84 4-8 4 1-8 5 2- 8 5 3-6 5 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4-85 591.9 3- 8 1 10*7 4-91 13 . 0 15*3 1-82 10 .6 10. 5 5.9 2-82 8*4 7.7 4.1 2.3 3-82 9,6 9*3 7.4 8*2 14.4 4-82 1 0 .7 1 0 .T 9.5 10 .8 15.3 16 .2 1-8 3 8.8 8.5 7*2 7*6 9*4 7*0 -1 .5 2-8 3 8*1 7.7 6.5 6.6 7.7 5 .5 0.6 2.7 613.3 622.1 625.7 647*1 671.8 669.3 673*8 681*1 3-83 7*7 7*3 6*2 6*2 7.0 5.3 1 .9 3.6 4.4 4-83 6.7 6*3 5*2 5*1 5*6 3.9 1 .0 1 .9 1. 4 -1 .5 1- 8 4 7*1 6*7 5*8 5*8 6.3 5.0 2.9 4.1 4 .5 4.6 11.0 2-8 4 8*4 8*2 7*5 7.7 8.4 7.6 6.2 7.8 9.1 10.7 17.3 2 4 .1 3-8 4 8*3 8*1 7.5 7.6 8.2 7.5 6.3 7.6 8.6 9.7 13.7 15.1 6.8 4-84 8.5 8*4 7*8 8.0 8.6 7.9 6.9 8.2 9.2 10.1 13.2 14 .0 9.3 11 .8 1-8 5 8. 3 8*1 7*6 7.7 8 .2 7.6 6.7 7 .8 8.5 9 .2 11.5 11.6 7.7 8 .2 2 -8 5 8*3 8*2 7*7 7.8 8.3 7.8 7.0 7.9 8.6 9 .2 11.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 7.0 9.4 3-85 9*0 8.9 8 .5 8.7 9.2 8.8 8.1 9 .1 9 .9 10.6 12.4 12 .6 10.5 11 .4 11 .3 1 4 .7 ?0.4 9.0 8.5 9 .4 10 .1 10.8 12.4 12 .6 10.8 11.6 11*6 14 .0 16 .3 12.4 67 8.6 696*5 735*1 747.3 768 . 4 77 7 .2 4 .7 794.8 * i CD V* 832.5 9.2 9 .1 8.7 8.9 9 .4 1-8 6 8*1 8.0 7*6 7 ,7 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.7 9 .6 7.7 7 .8 7 .0 7.6 7.1 1.0 -9 .3 2-8 1 3-8 1 4- 8 1 1-82 2- 8 2 3-8 2 4 -8 2 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-8 3 1-84 2- 8 4 3-8 4 4-84 1-85 2-85 3—65 4-85 857.2 836.6 I N I T I A L ÖUaAT?* GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E _______________ BI LL IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4- 8 1 3-81 2 .4 4-81 3.1 3. 7 1- 8 2 1.7 1.4 -0 .8 1-82 2-8 2 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-8 3 4-63 1- 8 4 2-84 3-8 4 4-8 4 1-85 2-85 3-8 5 4 -6 5 630.2 635.9 634.6 2-82 0.5 -0 .1 -1 .9 -3 .1 3-82 2 .1 2.0 1.4 2.5 8.4 629.7 4-82 3.6 3.8 3.8 5.4 9.9 11.4 642.5 660.1 1-63 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.3 4.1 2.1 -6 .5 2-83 1.7 1. 6 1 .3 1.7 2.9 1.2 -3 .6 —0 . 6 3-63 1.8 1. 7 1.4 1. 8 2. 8 1.4 -1 .7 0.7 2.1 -2 .7 -1 .4 -1 .8 -5 .6 0.2 0 .4 -0 .4 5 .0 649.1 648*2 651*5 4-8 3 1 .0 0 .8 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.0 1-84 1 .4 1.3 1 .0 1 .2 1.8 0.8 -1 .2 2 .5 2.9 3.7 3.0 1.7 3.4 4.5 5.3 11.2 17 .7 1.9 3.4 4.2 4.7 8.4 10.2 2-6 4 2.6 2.6 3-6 4 2 .7 2.7 4 -6 4 3.0 3.0 1 -6 5 2.7 2.7 2.6 642*2 65 0.1 677.1 3.2 682.4 2.9 3.6 3.1 3 .0 3.3 4.0 3.5 2.5 3.9 4.6 5.2 8.1 9.1 5.0 6 .9 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.8 4 .0 6.1 6*4 2.8 2 .7 -1 .4 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.1 5.9 6.0 3.3 3.3 1.6 693.9 691.4 4.7 699.4 2.8 2 .8 2.8 3.0 3.6 3 .1 3- 8 5 3 .6 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.3 3.7 4.8 5 .4 5.8 7.5 8 .0 6.1 6.9 6.8 11. 2 18.2 4-65 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.1 5.2 5.8 6.2 7.7 8 .1 6.6 7 .3 7.4 10 .6 1 3 .6 9 .2 1 -6 6 2.9 3 .0 2.9 3.2 3 .6 3.3 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 5 .1 5.2 3.5 3.5 2 .9 4.0 3.7 -2 .8 -1 3 .6 3-81 4- 8 1 1-82 2 -8 2 3-Ö2 4-8 2 l-è 3 3-8 3 4- 8 3 1 -8 4 2-84 3-9 4 4-8 4 1—65 2-85 3- 6 5 4—« 5 N> I CD 2-8 5 729.2 745.5 718.8 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS MAY 20 » 1986 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COHPOUNPEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER__________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2 8 4 3 -8 4 4 8 4 1-8 4 3 8 3 1-8 5 2 8 5 48 3 1-83 3-6 5 4 -8 2 4-8 5 2-8 3 3-8 2 4 -8 1 1-82 28 2 3 -8 1 2— 81 2* 1 6 2 . 0 3—81 13.2 4-8 1 8.9 4*7 1- 8 2 7.1 4.2 2* 1 8 7 . 0 3.7 2 * 20 7 .2 2-82 7.0 5.0 5*1 6*4 3-8 2 6.9 5.4 5 .6 6*6 6.7 4-82 7.0 5.7 6.0 6.8 6 .9 7.1 1—83 6.6 5 .6 5.8 6.3 6.2 6 .0 4.8 6.5 6 .4 6.1 2-83 6,7 5.8 6 .0 6.5 2 * 24 1 .8 2*278*6 2*318*1 2* 34 5 .5 7.4 2 * 38 7 .7 3-8 3 7.1 6.4 6*7 7.1 7.3 7 #4 7.5 8.9 10.5 4 -8 3 7.7 7*1 7*4 7.9 8.1 8.4 8 .7 10.1 11 .4 12 .4 1-84 8*3 7 .8 8 .2 8.7 9.1 9.5 10 .0 11.3 12 .6 13.7 2 * 44 7 .9 2*520.4 2,610.2 2 ,6 4 9 .9 * 2^84 8*1 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.3 10.3 11.0 11 .2 10.5 6.2 3-8 4 8*1 7*6 7.9 8.3 8.6 8 .8 9.0 9.7 10.2 1 0 .2 9.4 6 .7 7.3 4-8 4 7*8 7*4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.2 8.9 8 .1 5.8 5.7 4.1 1-85 7 .4 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 8 .1 8.2 7.8 6.9 4.9 4 .5 3.2 2.3 2-85 7.7 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 8. 1 8.5 8.6 8.4 7.7 6 .3 6.3 6.0 7.0 12.0 3-85 7.1 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7. 1 7 .1 7.3 7.3 7.0 6.2 4.8 4 .5 3.8 3.8 4 .5 -2 .5 00 1 15 .0 7.0 6.7 6 .8 7 .0 7.1 7. 1 7. 1 7.3 7 .3 6.9 6 .3 5.1 4.9 4.4 4.5 5.2 2.0 6.7 6.3 5.3 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.7 3.7 6.8 7.0 4- 6 3 1- 8 4 2-84 3-84 4-Ä4 1-85 2-85 3-8 5 4-8 5 1- 8 6 7.0 6.7 6 .8 7.0 7.1 7. 1 7. 1 7.3 7.3 6.9 2-8 1 3-81 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-8 3 3 -8 3 2 ,6 9 6 .7 2 * 72 3 .8 2* 7 3 9 .2 2* 8 1 7 .7 2* 80 0 .2 2 * 84 5 .9 2* 89 4 .5 IK1T T I À L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______ BI LLI O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-8 1 3-81 5.1 4-8 1 1.7 3-81 4-81 i-82 2-82 3-8 2 4-82 1-83 2-83 3 -6 3 4-6 3 1-8 4 2-84 3-84 4-8 4 2-85 3-6 5 4 -8 5 2 * 2 6 2 .9 2,2 53.7 -1 .6 2 ,2 4 5 .7 1 -8 2 0.6 -1 .5 -1 .4 2-82 1*2 -0 .1 0.6 2 .7 3-82 1.0 0.0 0 .6 1*6 0.4 4-8 2 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.3 1-63 1.4 0 .8 1*3 2*0 1*8 2.5 2.7 2-83 1*6 1.2 1*6 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.1 2,2 60.9 2,263.4 2* 27 6 .1 2,2 9 1 .3 2* 3 0 9 . 0 2 ,3 46.9 3-6 3 ZfZ 1*8 2*3 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.9 6.7 4 -8 3 2*7 _ 2*5 3*0 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 7.3 7.8 1-84 3 .3 3. 2 3.7 4.4 4.6 5.3 6.0 6. 8 8.0 8.7 9.6 2-6 4 3*3 3.1 3*6 4.2 4 .3 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.0 2.5 3-8 4 3*3 3*1 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.7 5 .0 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.0 2.8 3.1 4 -8 4 3*1 2 . 9 _ 3*3 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.7 3.9 2.1 1.8 0.6 2*7 _ 3*0 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.9 4. 1 4.2 3.8 3.0 1.5 1.1 0.2 -0 .3 1 -8 5 1-85 2,3 91.3 2,4 4 6 .8 2,4 61.8 2,4 8 0 .5 2*464.4 2 * 4 8 2 .7 2-8 5 3.2 3*0 3*4 3.8 3*8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.4 3.9 2.8 2 .9 2.8 3 .9 8 .2 3-8 5 2.7 2*6 2.8 3 .1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3 .6 3.7 3.3 2.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.7 -4 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1. 9 -1 .2 2.3 2* 53 2 .2 2 * 50 3 .1 2,5 1 7 .1 4-8 5 1-1 2.5 2 .8 3.1 3.1 3.3 1-8 6 2*8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.8 1.1 4 .0 5.8 2-81 3-81 4 -8 1 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4 -6 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-8 5 2-85 *-65 4-65 2,5 5 3 .1 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED ÔY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U li MAY 20* 1986 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COWPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 6IUIOH5 Of I (Nl CO TERM INAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________ POLLARS QUARTER iim ik t ftATÉS 4-82 1-83 3 -8 2 2-81 3-81 4-81 2 -8 3 1-82 3-83 1- 8 5 2-8 5 3 -8 5 4-8 4 4 -8 5 1- 6 4 2-84 3-8 4 4-83 7 .5 4-8 1 -1 .1 144*4 -9 .1 14 1 .0 1 -8 2 -3 0 .9 -4 4 .6 -6 6 .2 2-6 2 -2 4 .5 107.5 o -1 .8 -2 5 .7 -3 0 .5 -0 .4 -2 2 .9 -2 6 .0 -3 .9 4-8 2 -1 8 .5 1- 8 3 -1 4 .3 -1 7 .5 -1 9 .1 107.0 10 7. 3 1. 1 10 4 .3 —5 .0 - 1 0 . 7 10 8 .2 1.5 1.7 15. 8 -5 .7 -7 .5 -7 .2 13.5 17 .8 23.9 45.9 83 .9 3-83 -0 .2 -1 .1 0.1 20.0 24.9 31 .7 49.9 4-83 0 .5 -0 .2 0.9 18.0 2 1 .7 2 6 .3 3 7 .7 4 5 .8 29.9 6.7 1- 8 4 1.6 1.1 2.3 17 .5 20 .5 2 4 .1 32 .5 37 .1 2 4 .3 10.2 13.7 l.l 0.6 1.6 14 .8 17.1 1 9 .6 25 . 5 27 . 6 16 .4 5.1 4 .4 -4 .2 2-8 4 V* 0.7 2 -8 3 -1 o 3-8 2 1 0 -3 2 .9 -4 2 .4 12 6 .0 141.3 58.2 143.6 14 8. 3 14 6 .7 14 0 .3 3-84 -0 .3 -1 .0 -0 .2 11.2 12 .8 14 .3 18 .5 18 .9 9.0 —0 . 7 -3 .1 -10.5 -16 .3 4-8 4 -0 .2 -0 .8 -0 .1 10.3 11.5 12 .8 16.1 16.1 7.6 -0 .4 -2.1 -6 .9 -8 .1 0.9 1- 8 5 -1 .0 -1 .6 -1 .0 8.3 9.3 10. 1 12 .7 12 .4 4.7 -2 .2 -3 .9 -7 .9 -9 .1 -5 .2 -1 0 .9 140.6 13 6.6 136.4 -1 .5 -0 .9 7.6 8.4 9 .1 11.3 10.8 4.0 -2 .0 -3 .4 -6 .5 -7 .0 -3 .7 -5 .9 -0 .6 -0 .1 -0 .6 0.0 8. 1 8.9 9.6 11 .6 11. 2 5.2 -0 .1 -1 .0 -3 .3 -3 .1 0.6 0.5 6.7 14 .5 0 .8 0 .4 1 .0 8.6 9.4 1 0 . 1 12 .0 11 .7 6.3 1.7 l.l -0 .6 0.0 3.6 4 .3 10 .0 15 .7 16.8 8.8 -0 .4 -0 .6 2.1 3.0 -2 .3 -1 8 .2 1-83 3-84 4-8 4 1-8 5 7-85 3- 8 5 4-85 * 1 00 -1 .0 3-85 1 -8 6 -0 .3 -0 .8 -0 .3 6.7 7 .3 7 .8 9.4 2-8 1 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-6 2 3-6 2 4—82 3 .8 -0 .5 -1 .3 -3 .0 -2 .8 Ki 00 1 N 2-85 3-83 4-8 3 1-8 4 2-84 141.1 1 4 6 .7 1 3 9 . 5P I N I T I A L QUARTER * NATIONAL INCOME BASIS P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS HAY 20* 1986 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for 1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of Current Business» Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82 and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate volumes. These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy printout. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 IN V E N T O R IE S COMPARED W ITH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 68 1 64 1 60 1.56 56 1 52 I 48 1 44 I 40 1 36 1 32 I 28 24 1 1 1973 1 1 «RATIOS BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y SHADED AREAS REPRESENT LATEST DATA PLOTTED: ADJUSTED PERIODS 1979 1 DATA. OF B U S I N E S S 1981 1982 SOURCE: 1983 1 1986 1 U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. MARCH P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED 20 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS