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National Economic Trends
M ay 1986
Recently revised estimates show that real GNP rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year. This
growth appears to reflect inventory building, since real final sales (output less business inventory investment) fell at a
0.7 percent rate during the quarter. Over the past few quarters, however, final sales measures have been distorted to an
unusual extent by government purchases of farm products by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).
Since CCC purchases are offset by equal reductions in business (farm) inventory investment, such purchases do not
affect real GNP. There is little reason, other than accounting convention, for treating such inventory purchases differently
than farm inventory investment. When CCC purchases rise, however, final sales also rise since business inventory invest­
ment is reduced. Similarly, when such purchases fall, measured final sales are depressed.
In the fourth quarter of 1985, CCC purchases surged to a record $33.7 billion (1982 prices), almost twice their previous
record level in the fourth quarter of 1982. Such purchases then declined to $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 1986. When
CCC purchases are excluded from government purchases and included in inventory investment, adjusted final sales mat­
ches better with the pattern of GNP growth (see table below).
Real inventory investment, including CCC purchases, accelerated from $27.4 billion in the fourth quarter to $40.7 billion
in the first quarter of this year, but the rise is substantially smaller than the reported surge in real business inventory
investment from $-6.3 billion to $33 billion in the same period. Analysts who focus on the decline in real final sales and
the large rise in business inventory purchases are likely to view the near-term outlook for production and employment
more pessimistically than is warranted by the adjusted figures.

Growth Rates of Real GNP and Final Sales
Real GNP
1985/1
II
III
IV

1986/1

3.7%
1.1

3.0
0.7
3.7

Real final sales

Adjusted real final sales1

6.2%
1.2

5.0
1.3
-0.7

-

6 .0 %
1.6
3.5
1.0
2.2

‘Adjusted to include CCC purchases in inventory investment instead of in government purchases

views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.



—John A. Tatom

TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT*
f.OMPfillNOEn ANNUAL RATES- f>F CHANTJ___
TMTTTAt
MONTH

O— ftA. 1A -A 4 1 1-A4 1 7-ft¿.

1-ftS

A.-ft*

7-A*

*-A»i

TMTHKANrtt
OF PERSONS

MTIMTM

A-A*

7-A*

ft-A*

Q-ftS 10-85

11—#15 17-6 5

1-AA

7- 6 6 _ l - f l ò
10S.6 57

?

105*971

11—**

i -?

1- A

i y —ft4

i -7

•*-4

1 -7

?

7-*

7 -n

ft-A

7-A «L

7 -f

7 -7

?-i

1- 9

1-1

1-A 5

7 -9

1-ft

7.

7-7

1-6

4-7

a.—a

■:

? .A

7-1

7 -i

1 - ft

? .1

1 -A

-0 -9

■i-fl ^

7-7

7-1

i -ft

1 -A

1-ft

1-1

-0 .1

A—ft •»

1 -«i

1

i

ft - 7

ft-A

0-0

-1 .1

1-ft«L

ft

-ft

10 6.2 46
10 6.31 5
10 6.5 67
106*951
106.872
106 .9 3 9

0. 8
-1

-

5

-1 -7

106 .60 1
.10 6.8 71

7—ft *;

1

1T*:

1- i

1 -ft

1 -ft

ft-A

-0 -7

f t - ,fì

-0 -4

1-1

ft- a *;

Ì .<5

i -a

1 .A

1 >4

Ì -4

1- ?

ft-A

1- Û

1-0

1-5

1 -9

1 -7

1-5

1-1

1 - ,5

1 -A

1 -5

1-7

g -«

? -ft

i n— a *;

7- I

11

?- 1
7-1

7-1

i 7-

a*

1 -9

10 7.21 0
10 7.5 19

3.5

1 -ft

1- A

7-ft

1. 9

1-ft

1 -9

1-7

1-4

1 - ,fì

? -ft

1-4

1- A

3-4

3.1

7-0

1- 9

1- f t

1 -9

1- 7

1 -4

1 - ft

1- 9

1-1

1-1

2-9

2-5

1.8

1-9

1 -ft

1-9

1- f t

1 -A

1- 9

7 -ft

1-0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.2

107 .81 3
107 .96 9
10 8.2 06

2.7

1-flA

7 -«i

7 -s

7-4.

7-1

? -S

7-4

7- 1

2. 6

2.8

1 .8

3.9

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

5.6

8 .6

7—ftA

2.1

2.1

2 .0

1 .9

1 .9

1.9

1.6

1 .9

2.0

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.2

2 .0

-4 .3

3 -8 6

2*1

2.1

2.0

1 .9

2.0

1.9

1.7

2. 0

2.1

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.2

-0 .9

2.5

2*0

1*9

1 .9

1. 9

1.9

1.7

1. 9

2.0

2. 6

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

2 .1

1. 9

-0 .2

1 .8

1 .2

10 -8 4 11 - 8 4 12—64

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-95

5- 8 5

6-8 5

7-8 5

8-65

11—85 12-65

1-66

2-96

3-86

11-65 12-85

1-86

2-66

3-86

4-86

2.1
9-84

9 - 8 5 10-8 5

10 8.955
108 ,56 1
106» 768
108,892

I N I T I A L MONTH
♦SEE FO O TN O TF BOTTOM OF CHART O P P O S ITE PAGE

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE? OF CHANGE

4.3

11 -64

4.1

3. 9

12-6 4

3t6

3. 3

2-85

3-85

4— 85

5- 6 5

6-8 5

95 ,8 8 2
96,092
9 6 ,4 1 9

3.8

3. 6

3.4

4 .2

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.2

2.2

3- 8 5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3. 1

4 .0

4-65

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.3

9 6 ,5 9 1
96 , 9 1 0
2.6

97,120
97,421

5- 9 5

?*5

3. 3

3.2

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.2

3.8

6 -6 5

irl

3. 0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.3

2.2

0.6

7-65

3. 1

3 .0

2.9

2 .9

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

1. 8

2.9

11-85

97,473
97,707

3.0

2 .9

3.0

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.3

3 .1

3.4

if\

3.0

2.9

3.0

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.5

3.1

3 .2

3.0

3t 2

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.8

3.4

3.5

3.6
3.4

8 -8 5

?t 2

12 -6 5

THOUSANDS
Of PERSONS
10-85

2.7

1- 8 5

10-85

8- 8 5

9 5 ,5 7 3

2-85

9-65

7-85

v'D
C

10 -64

1-8 5

*

9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 11 - 8 4 12 - 8 4

!

I N I T I A L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH

97,977
98,217
9 8 ,5 5 9

4.3

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.0

3.1

3 .1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3 .0

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.3

3 .5

98,801
99,086

I

?t3

3.3

3.2

3 .3

3.2

3.3

3 .2

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.7

3.8

4 .0

3.9

4.3

5. 1

2 -e *

3.3

3.2

3 .1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.5

3 .6

3.4

3 .5

3.5

1.9

3-86

3 .2

3 .1

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3 .0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.3

3 .3

3.1

3.2

3.1

2.1

2.2

4-66

3.2

3 .1

3 .0

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.0

3 .0

2.9

2.2

2.3

2.5

9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64

1-8 5

2-65

3 -8 5

4-65

5 -6 5

6- 6 5

7-6 5

8- 8 5

9- 8 5

10-65

11-65 12 -65

1-86

2-66

3-86

99,496
99,656
9 9 , 834P
100,040P

I N I T I A L MONTH
P - PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
MAY 2 . 1966

2




EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

M I L L IONS

OF

RATIO
PERSONS

seasonally

MILLIONS

adjusted

OF

SCALE

PERSONS

125
120

1 15
I 10

105
100

95
90
85

80

75
SOURCEt U .S.D EPAR TM EN T OF LABOR
BEG INNING JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEf PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 X .
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D .
LATE ST DATA PLO TTE D t A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LO U IS

UNEMPLOYMENT
SEASONALLY

PERCENT

RATE

ADJUSTED

PERCENT
12.0

1l

I I .0

.

10.

1 0 .0

9.

9.0

8.

8.0

7.

7.0

6.

6.0

5.

5.0

4.
1978

1979

1980

1981

1 982

1983

1984
SOURCEt U .S .

1985

1986

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

PERCENT OF C IV I L I A N LABOR FORCE
LATE ST DATA P LO TTED t A P R IL
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

3

4.0

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
_____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E _________________
TERM INAL_____________________________ ____________ _______________________I N I T I A L MONTH_______________ __ ______________________________ __________________ 1967«1Q0
MONTH
9-84
lo-e^

3*9

11-84

3.1

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-05

8-85

9-85

10— 85

11-85

12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86
314*7

2.3

315*3
316.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.3

2-85

3 tl

?.9

3.1

3.1

3.9

3-85

3.5

3.5

3*8

4.0

4.8

4-8 5

3 .6

3,6

3*8

4.0

4.6

5.0

4.2

5-85

3.5

3.5

3.6

T.8

4.1

4.2

3.4

2.7

6-85

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.9

3.3

2*8

3.0

7-85

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.0

2*6

2.6

2.3

8-85

3.3

3.2

3.3

3*3

3.5

3.4

3.0

2*6

2 .6

2*4

2.6

9-8 5

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.5

2*4

2.4

10-8 5

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.4

4 .5

11-8 5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.4

3*6

3.7

4.1

4.5

5.7

12-85

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.7

3*8

4.1

4.5

5.3

5*7

4*5

1-86

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.8

3*9

4. 1

4.4

5.0

5*1

4*3

4.1

2-8 6

3.1

3.1

3. 1

3.1

3.2

3. 1

2.9

2*8

2.8

2*8

2.8

2.9

3.0

2*6

1.2

-0 .4

-4*6

3-86

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.0

1*9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1*0

-0 .4

-1 .9

-4*8

-5*0

4-8 6

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.8

1.6

1*5

1.3

1.2

1. 1

0.9

0*3

-1*0

-2 .3

-4*3

-4 .1

-3 .3

3-85

4-65

5-65

6-85

7-85

9-85

1Ô-Ô5

11-05

12-85

2-86

3-86

1-85

319.2

5.8

2-8 5

320.3
321.0
321.8

323.1
323.7

2.3

324.9
6*9

326*7
327.9
329*0
327*7
326*3
325*4

1

IN ITIA L

322.4

a>
1
00

11-84

316.7
317*7

«
cr
t

9-84

1
00
*>\

3.1

1-85

IN*
CG
1
<\l

12-84

MONTH

MAY 2 1 ,

1986

PRODUCER PRICE INOEXt FIN IS H EO GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*_____________________________________________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
1967 * 100

I N I T I A L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
9 - 8 4 1 0 -8 4 1 1 - 8 4 1 2 - 8 4

1-8 5

2-85

3 -8 5

4-85

5 -8 5

6 -8 5

7-6 5

8 -8 5

9-85

10-8 5 11-85

12 -85

1—86

2-86

3 -8 6
291*1

10 -84

-0 .8

11 -8 4

1.2

3.3

12 -8 4

1 .1

2.1

0.8

291*9
2 9 2 .1
291.9

1 -8 5

0 .6

1.1

0 .0

-0 .8

2 -8 5

0.5

0.8

0 .0

-0 .4

0.0

3-65

0.5

0.7

0.1

-0 .1

0.2

0.4

4-85

1.3

1. 7

1.3

1.4

2.2

3.3

6.3

291.9
2 9 2 .0
293.5

5 -8 5

1.5

1.8

1.6

1.7

2*4

3 .2

4.6

2.9

6-85

1.1

1. 3

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

0.2

7-85

1 .2

1 .5

1 .2

1.3

1.7

2 .0

2.4

1.1

294.2
293.6

-2 .4
0.2

2.9

294.3
293*4

8-85

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0 .9

1.0

1.2

—0*1

-1 .1

-0 .4

-3 .6

9-8 5

0.2

0.3

0.0

-0 . 1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-1 .4

-2 .4

-2 .4

-5 .0

-6 .4

10-85

1.0

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.4

0 .6

0.2

0.6

0 .1

2 .1

11 .2

291*8
294*4
2* ¿.4 ‘

11-85

1.5

1.7

1 .5

1*6

1.9

2.1

2.3

1 .7

1.5

2 .3

2.2

4 .2

9 .8

8 .5

12-85

1 .9

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.4

2 .6

2 .9

2.5

2.4

3*2

3.3

5.1

9.2

8.2

8.0

1-86

1.3

1.4

1. 3

1.3

1. 5

1.6

1 .8

1.3

1.1

1 .6

1.4

"2 .4

4.T

2.6

-0 .2

298*3
-7 .0 ”
-re .è

2 9 ¿.V
"

2-86

0.1

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .7

-1 .1

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .2

-2 .7

-¿ .2

3-8 6

-0 .6

—0 . 6

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .0

-1 .6

" -T.2

-i.è

-2 .*

-2 .3

-2 .*

-2 .8

-2 .F

-4 .7

- 7 . 7 - 1 2 . 4 —14 .6 - 1 2 . 0

-T7 7 T

4-8 6

-1 .0

-1 .0

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .6

-2 .5

-2 .7

-2 .8

-3*4

-3 .4

-2 .*

-5 .1

-7 .¿

-rr.i

-12*2

—9*7

-7*2

9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 1 2 -8 4

1-8 5

2-85

3-85

4-8 5

5 -8 5

6-85

7-6 5

8-8 5

9 - 8 5 10-85

11-65

12 -85

1 -8 6

2-86

3-86

29 I T T
288*6
28¿*ft

I N I T I A L MONTH
•OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO Rc f L E C t L A Î É RÉ Wf tT IN é




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
n Á ? 'T ¿ n w

4




RATIO

PR IC ES

SCALE

RATIO

SCALE

CONSUMER P R IC E INDEX B E 6 IN N IN « JANUARY 1 9 7 « IS FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) .
C P I- U DATA B E 6 1H M IM 6 1 0 8 9 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQ UIV ALENC E MEASURE FOR H O itf OW Æ RSh IP CO STS.
PERCENTACES AJtE ANKUAL RATES OF CttAMCE FOR PER IO D S
LATEST DATA P LO TTE D .

IN D IC A T E D .

A P R IL
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

PRODUCER
1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

SEASONALLY

PR IC ES
ADJUSTED

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PER IO DS
LATEST DATA PLO TTED . A P R IL

r a t i o scale
1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

IN D IC A T E D .

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

5

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, F I N I SHED CONSUMER FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE5 Ö P "CHAN5T "
TERMINAL
MONTH

1967 «

N
1
CD

I N I T I A L MONTH
9 - 8 4 10—84 1 1 - 8 4

10-6 4

-1 .5

11-64

-0 .4

0.4

12-64

1.0

2.2

T-'s nr

2-85

3—65

^-8 5

5 -8 5

6-85

7-85

5=85

9-85

1 0 - 8 5 ' 11^83 TT^€5~“ T - Ï 6

1Ö0

'2-86'" 3 - 8 6 “

27377
273V8 ■
4 .0

27 4 .7

1-6 5

-0 .3

0.0

-0 .2

-4 * 3

¿-65

-0 .4

-0 .1

-Ö .3

-2 .4

-0 .4

3-65

-1 .2

-1 .1

-1 .5

=377"

-2 .8

-*> .l

4-6 5

-2 .0

-2 .1

—2 . 6

-4 .2

-4 .2

-6 .0

-6 .8

5 -8 5

-2 .9

-3 .2

-3 .8

—5 . 2

-5 .5

-7 .1

-8 .1

-9 .3

6—8 5

-2 .7

-2 .9

-3 .4

-4 .5

-4 .6

—5 . 6

-5 .7

-5 .2

273.7
2 7 3 .6
— 272-;^
27 0 .8
266 . 6
^0V7

2 6 8 .4

7-8 5

-1 .4

-1 .4

—1 . 6

-2 .4

-2 .0

-2 .4

-1 .6

5 .2

11.8

8-65

-2 .0

-2 .1

-2 .3

-3 .1

-2 .9

—3 . 3

-3 .0

-2 .0

0 .6

1.7

9 -8 5

-2 .8

-2 .9

-3 .2

—4 . 0

-4 .0

—4 . 5

—4 . 4

-3 .9

—2 . 4

-2 .9

-9 .6

10-65

-1 .1

-1 .1

-1 .2

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .0

0.0

2.0

'2 .7

-O .i

4 .1

'21.7

Ô .0

0.0

0 .7

1 .8

3.8

4.8

3 .1

7.2

17.6

1 3 .6

0. 1

2 7 0 .9
-8 .1

269.0
- 1 1 '. 'O'

2 6 6 .4

■

27 0 .8

11-85

-0 .1

0.Ö

0.0

-0 .4

12—8 5

0 .7

0.9

0.9

Ö .7

1. 1

1.3

2.0

3.2

5.1

6 .1

5.0

8.6

16.0

13.3

13 . 0

1-8 6

0.2

0 .3

0 .3

Ö.0

0 .4

0.5

1.1

2.0

"3.5

4.1

2.9

5 .3

9Y8

6.0

2.4

2—86

-0 .9

-0 .9

-1 .0

—1. 3

-1 .1

-I. 1

—0 . 8

—0 .1

0 .9

1.2

-0 .3

1.1

3.7

-0 .3

-4 .6

-1 2 .7

-1 7 . 2

3 -8 6

-0 .7

— 0. 6

—0 . 7

-1 .Ö

-0 .8

—U. 8

—0 . 4

u .z

1 .2

i.4

U .Z

1 .4

3.6

0 . 4 ' —Z . T

-7 .4

- r.t>

7 .r"

4—86

—0 . 6

-0 .5

—0 . 6

—O. 8

—0 . 6

—0 . 6

-0 .3

"0 .3

' T.2

■ 1.4

0.3

1 .5

3.4

0.6

-5 .2

-4 .6

2 .5 “

9 -8 4 10 - 8 4 11 -84

12 -8 4

1-85

2 -8 5

3 -8 5

4-85

5 -8 5

6-85

7-85

8-8 5

11-85 12 -6 5

1-66

9- 8 5 10-85

773 . 7

-1 .8

2 7 6 .5
-7 . 1

2 7 4 .8
27 0 .5

211 .2
l . “6

2-6 6

3 -8 6

2-96"

3-86

2 7 1 .6

I N I T I A L MONTH
♦DATA

FOR FOUR MON THS AGO R E V I S E D

TO R E F L E C T

LATE

K EPD K TING

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FIN IS H ED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS -

annual ratr

Te r m i n a l
ÜONTH____________
_______
9 - 8 4 T Ö ‘-Ö 4 11 -8 4 12^84

in it ia l

1-85 " 2 - 8 5

3-8 5

'^ 8 5

'3 - S 5

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*

or change------------------------ 19&7 *

mon th

■ ¿ -«r

7-6 5

' 8 ^ 8 5-

9^85 Ttf^85

11-85' T 2 - S 5

1^6'

10 -6 4

2 9 4 .7

1 1 -64

1 .6

3 .7

12-8 4

1.1

1.ir

0.0

1—85

0.9

1 .4

0.2

0 .4

29 5.6

Z 9 5 .7

2 -8 5

0.7

0.9

0.0

0.0

-0 .4

3—85

1 .0

1.3 '

0.7

1 .0

1.2

2 .9

4-85

2.4

2 .9

2.7

3.4

4.4

6.9

4. 1

295.6
— 296.3
298.9

5-85

3. 0

3. 5

5 .1

6.9

9.0

7.0

6 —85

'2.2

2.6

2.4

2.8

3.3

4. 2

4.7

1. 6

-3 .5

7-65

2.0

2. 5

2.1

'2.4

“2 . 8

3 .4

3.6

1 .2

-1 .6

ir.iT

0»

11.1

3.4

1.7

1.9

1 .7

1.9

2. 1

2.5

274"

0 .4

-r.T

-0 .8 "

-2 .0

9 -8 5

l.l

1.2

1.0

1. 1

1.2

1.4 '

1.2

-0 .7

-2 .6

-2 .2 "

—3 . 5

10-65

1. 7

1.8

1.7

1 .8

2.0

2.3

2.2“

0.8

-0 .4

0 .4

0 .4

1.6

8.8

2 .4

2*8

2.7

1.6

0.7

1 .6

1 .9

3.2

7.7

6.6

I

io q

3 0 0 .6
299.7
299.8
2 9 9 .3
—5 . 1

2 V 8. U
3 0 0 .1

11-65

2.0

2.2

2.1

2 .3

12—85

2.3

■” 2 .5 “

2.4

2 .6 " ' 2 . 8

3 7T~

3.2

2.2

1'.'5

2.4"

2. 8

4 .1

7.3

6.6

1 -6 4

1.6

1.8

1.6

1 .7

2 .T-

2.Ö

1 .0

0.3

0.9

0.9

1 .5

3.3

1 .5

2-66

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.2

0 .1

— 1.Ö

-1 .8

—1 . 6

-1 .9

-1 .9

-1 .2

-3 .6

- 6 . 7 "-12.7 -1 7 .2

29 6. 5

3 -6 6

—0 . 6

—0 . 6

-0 .9

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 . 1

-1 .4

-2 .5

-3 .4

-3 .4 "

-3 .8

-4 . 1

-3 .9

-0 .3

- 9 . Z ”- 1 4 . 0 - 1 6 . 8 - 1 6 . 4

292 . 1

4-8 6

-1 .1

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .6

-1 .7

-1 .8

-2 .1

-3 .1

-4 .0

-4 .1

-4 .6

-4 .9

—4 . 8

-6 .9

- 9 . 4 ~ -1 3 . 0 - 1 4 . 7 - 1 3 . 4T - 1 0 . 2

289.5

9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 1 2 -8 4

1-85

2-85

3—85

4-85

5 -8 5

6—85

7- 65

8- 8 5

9 - 8 5 1 0 -8 5

1.9 '

0 .3

301.7
6.6

303.3

-1 .0 " -8 .0

11-6 5 1 2 -6 5

30 1 . 2

1-86

2 -8 6

3-86

I N I T I A L MONTH
»DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO K t h L t C T L A 1t KtPOR T1NG




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS

6

'

INDUSTRIAL
RATIO

PRODUCTION
RATIO

SCALE

1967-100
135

SCALE

1967-100
135

S E A S O N A L L Y ADJ UST ED

130

130
+0. SX
V | 25, I

125
.

125

s*

120

120

I 15

1 15

*J .
*0. 4Z
* 16. 3 zjj

I 10

105

100

/) / v
+9. SZJ /

f

-

1 10

-13. 6 z V
-l i ■n W ' 7

9r

105

’

100

95

95

90

C

*

*

%

%

%

*

*

?*

>

^

$

i

%

Ì

»

1

*

^

§

ì

i

*

t

i.

t

t

t

♦

♦

♦

♦

♦

1978

1 97 9

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

90
1985

1986

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO OS IN D IC A T E D .
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

IN D U S T R I A L P R O O U C T IO N
C O M P O U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F CH AN G E

TERMINAL

in it ia l

1977 «

m onth

100

MO NTH

9 - 8 4 1 0 - 8 4 1 1 -8 4 12 -8 4

1-85

2-8 5

3-85

4 -8 5

5-85

6-8 5

7-85

8-8 5

9-65

10-85

11-85 1 2 -8 5

1-86

2- 8 6

3- 8 6
122.7

10—64

- 5 .7

1 1 -8 4

0*5

7*1

12 -8 4

0.0

3 .0

-1 .0

1-85

0*7

3*0

1*0

2-8 5

0*8

2*5

1*0

2*0

1.0

3-8 5

1 .1

2 .6

1.5

2 .3

2.0

2.9

4-85

1.1

2*3

1*4

2*0

1 .6

2*0

1.0

5-85

1*0

2*0

1*1

1*6

1 .2

1.3

0.5

0.0

6 -8 5

1*1

2*0

1*3

1.6

1*4

1.5

1.0

1 .0

2.0

T —65

0.8

1*5

0*9

1*1

0.8

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.0

-1 .9

123.4
123.3
123.6

3.0

12 3.7
124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1

8-85

1 .7

2 .4

1*9

2 .3

2.2

2.4

2*3

2.7

3.6

4.4

11.2

9-8 5

1 .5

2 .1

1*7

2 .0

1 .8

1. 9

1. 8

1. 9

2 .4

2.6

4 .9

—1 . 0

10 -8 5

o*e

.W *

0 .9

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.5

0 .6

0.2

1.0

-3 .8

-6 .5

1 1 -8 5

1.5

. i_- o

1*6

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.1

3. 2

0.6

1.4

10. 1

12 -6 5

2.0

2.6

2.2

2 .5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.4

4.5

2.9

4 .2

1 0 .0

10.0

1-86

2*1

2*6

2*3

2*5

2.5

2 .6

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.3

4.2

2.9

3.9

7.6

6 .4

1.6

1.6

1 .5

2.2

0.8

1. 2

125.2
125.1
12 4. 4
125.4
1 26 .4
2.9

12 6.7

2-8 6

1*4

1.8

1*5

1.7

1. 5

1.7

1.7

3.2

1.0

-3 .3

-9 .1

3-86

0.9

1.3

0.9

1. 0

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.6

1 .0

-0 .4

-0 .3

1. 0

-1 .2

-4 .7

-8 .2

-7 .4

4 -8 6

0.9

1.3

1 .0

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

1.1

-0 .1

0.0

1.1

-0 .6

-3 .1

-5 .0

-2 .8

9 - 8 4 1 0 -8 4 11 - 8 4 12 -8 4

1-8 5

2-85

3- 8 5

4-85

5-65

6- 8 5

8-85

9—8^

in it ia l

11- 65 12 -8 5

125 .7
L24.9P
1 .9

1 2 5 . IP

“1 - 8 * “ ì -è i —5-6è

h o n Th

P R E L IM IN A R Y




“> A E > A ftc tr& v r e o p u L
NAY 15 , 1986

7

réserve

&a n k

op

st.

l o u is

PERSONAL
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

INCOME
RATIO

MONTHLY T O T A L S AT ANNUAL RATES

OF

DOLLARS

TRILLIONS

S E A S ON A L L Y AD J US T E D

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3. I
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7

2.

2.0
I

I .9

.

1.8

I .7
I .6

1.

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1 98 5

1 986

SOURCE» U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS

IN D IC A T E D .

LATE ST DATA PLOTTED» A P R IL P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS

PERSONAL INCOME
TERMINAL
MONTH

BI LLI O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L MONTH
9- 8 4 1 0 -8 4 1 1 - 8 4 1 2 - 8 4

1-85

2- 8 5

3- 8 5

4 -8 5

5- 8 5

6-85

7-85

8-8 5

9 - 8 5 10—85 11-85 12 -85

1-8 6

CD
c

3 .6

6.6

1 2 -8 4

5 .4

7 .9

9.2
3.8

3,1 84.0

1- 6 5

5t9

6*5

2 -6 5

6r?

7 .8

8.2

7.7

11.7

3 -8 5

5 .9

7.0

7 .2

6.5

7.9

4.1

1
CO

3,207.4

6 .4

6. 8

7. 8

8.1

7.8

9.2

7.9

3,2 17.3
3,2 47.2
3 ,258.2
11.8

3 ,2 80.6

5 -8 5

5. 1

5.7

5.6

4.8

5 .1

3.0

2.4

-6 .2

6 -8 5

4.9

5. 4

5.3

4.6

4.8

3. 1

2.8

-1 .5

3 .5

7-85

4.7

5.2

5.0

4.5

4.6

3 .2

3.0

0.2

3 .5

8-85

4.5

4.9

4 .7

4.1

4.2

3.0

2.8

0.6

3.0

2.8

2.0

9 -8 5

4.6

4.9

4.8

4 .3

4.3

3.3

3.2

1.6

3.6

3.6

3 .7

5.4

10-8 5

4.8

5 .2

5.0

4.6

4 .7

3.9

3.9

2.6

4 .4

4.7

5.1

6.6

11-85

4.9

5.3

5 .1

4 .8

4 .9

4.2

4.2

3 .1

4.7

5.0

5 .4

6 .5

7.1

6.3

5 .8

5 .8

5.5

5.7

5 .1

5.2

4 .4

6 .0

6 .4

7.0

8 .3

9.3

10 .0

1 3 .9

5.5

5 .4

5. 1

5.3

4 .7

4.7

4.0

5 .3

5.6

5.9

6.7

7.1

6.8

7.1

0.7

5 .5

5.4

5.2

5.3

4.8

4.8

4. 1

5.4

5.6

5.9

6.5

6 .8

6.5

6.6

3.1

5.6

1 -8 6

3-86
3,1 6 7 .2

0.6

u -8 4

12-85

2 -3 6

3,271.2
3,2 8 0 .5
3.5

3,2 9 0 .0
3 ,2 95.5
3,3 09.9
7.8

3,3 30.8
3,3 47.9
3,3 8 4 .3
3,386.3

2 -8 6

5 .2

3- 8 6

5 .0

5.3

5.2

5.0

5.0

4 .5

4.6

4.0

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.9

6.0

5.6

5.4

2.8

3.8

2.1

4-8 6

5 .5

5.8

5. 8

5.5

5.7

5.2

5 .3

4.8

5.9

6.1

6.4

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.2

5.7

7.4

8 .2

9- 8 4 10 -84

1 1-8 4

12 -84

1-85

2-85

3- 8 5

4 -8 5

5- 8 5

6-85

7-85

8-85

11-05" l ¿ - 6 5

1-8 6

9- 6 5 T ò - ò *

3,4 0 1 .7
3 ,4 07.5
14.8

3,446.9P

?-86~ ”3 - 8 6 "

I N I T I A L 1HONTH
P - PRELIMINARY




~pRÊPARÉD BY ÉËDÉRAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS
MAY 2 1 , 1986

8

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES

SCALE

BILLIONS

OF

1 97 8

RATIO
DOLLARS

1979

1980

1981

BILLIONS

ADJ U ST ED

seasonally

1 98 2

1983

1 984

SOURCE« U .S .

OF

1 985

SCALE

DOLLARS

1 98 6

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS IN D IC A T E D .
LATE ST DATA PLOTTED« MARCH, A P R IL ADVANCE ES TIM A TE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

RE TAIL SALES
_______________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________________

0
1
00
*

1
00

TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________ MILLIONS OF
MONTH
DOLLARS
3 -8 5
9-84
1 1 -8 4 1 2 - 8 4
5-8 5
6-85
9 -8 5 10-85 11-85 12 -8 5
1-85
2-85
7- 8 5 8-8 5
1-86
2- 8 6
3-86
7*7

108 *816

U -8 4

10*|

1 2 .6

10 9,899

12 -8 4

7.4

7.2

2.0

6.7

6.4

3.4

4.8

8.6

8 .8

7.6

10 .6

10 -8 4

2-85

110,078
110,511
16 .6

111,935

3 -6 5

7.3

7. 2

5.8

7.2

8 .4

0 .7

4-6 5

1 0 .0

1 0 .4

9 .9

12 .0

14 .5

13 .5

2 7 .9

5-85

8.6

8 .7

8.0

9.3

1 0 .4

8.5

12 .6

-0 .9

6-85

6.8

6.7

5.8

6.5

6.8

4 .5

5.8

-3 .7

-6 .5

7-65

7 .0

6.9

6.2

6 .9

7.2

5.4

6.7

0.4

1.0

9 .1

8-65

8 .2

8 .3

7.8

8.6

9.1

7 .9

9.4

5 .2

7.4

15 .0

1 3 .4

2 0 .9

111,999
114,316
114,232
113,599
114,430
21.2

116,276

9-6 5

10 .1

1 0 .4

10.1

11.1

11 .9

11 .3

13.1

1 0 .4

27 .2

33.6

10 -85

5.7

5 .5

4 .9

5.2

5.2

3.8

4 .3

0.8

1 .2

3.2

1. 2

-7 .5

-3 5 .9

1 1 -8 5

5.8

5.6

5.0

5.3

5.4

4.2

4.6

1.7

2.1

3.9

2 .7

-2 .9

-17 .2

7.0

12 -85

6.4

6.3

5 .8

6.2

6.3

5.3

5.8

3.4

4.0

5.8

5.2

1 .5

-7 .4

11.4

1 5 .9

1 -8 6

6.3

6.2

5.8

6.1

6.2

5.3

5.8

3.6

4. 1

5 .7

5.2

2.2

-4 .4

9.2

10 .4

119*118
114,765
115,433
116,861
5.1

117 ,34 9

2-6 6

5.8

5.7

5.3

5.5

5.6

4.7

5.1

3.0

3.5

4.8

4.2

1.6

-3 .8

6.4

6 .3

1.8

-1 .5

11 7, 20 0

3-66

4.9

4.7

4.2

4.4

4.4

3 .5

3.7

1. 8

2.0

3.0

2.3

-0 .2

-4 .9

2.9

1.9

-2 .4

- 5 . 9 -1 0 .1

1 1 6 , 165P

4 -6 6

5.0

4.8

4.4

4 .5

4 .5

3.7

3.9

2.2

2.4

3.4

2.8

0.7

-3 .3

3.5

2.8

-0 .2

-1 .9

-2 .1

6.6

9 -8 4 10-84 11-84 12-64

1- 8 5

2-85

3 -6 5

4 -8 5

5 -8 5

6-85

7 -6 5

8-85

9 -8 5

10 -8 5

11-85 12 -8 5

1-86

2-86

3-86

I M T I a l tttoTW

■"

■

116,7886

'

P - PRELIMINARY
E - ESTIMATED




PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
HAY 1 3 , 19*6

9

HOURLY COMPENSATION» BUSINESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER____________________________________________________ ____________ 1977«1PQ
QUARTER
3 - 8 4 . érte. 1-85
2-65
2-0 1
1-82
1-8 3
2-83
1- 8 4 . 2 - 8 4
3 -8 5
3 -a i
4 -8 1
2- 8 2
3-82
4-82
3 -8 3
4- 6 3
4-85
3—81

9.3

A.-Pi 1

7.7

1 4 5. 3
1 4 7 .5

6.2

1 51 .2

1- 3 ?

8.6

8 .3

1 0 .4

?~fì?

8 .2

7.9

8.7

7.1

15 3.8

i-ñ?

ft « 1

7.8

8.3

7.3

7. S

4-82

7.5

7 .1

7.3

6.3

5.9

4.4

1-6 3

7.1

6.7

6.8

5.9

5 .5

4 .5

4.6

2-fi 3

6 .6

6.2

6 .2

5.4

5.0

4.2

4..1

3.5

3-fl3

6.0

5.6

5.5

4.8

4.3

3.5

3.2

2.5

1.5

4 -flì

5 .9

5 .6

5.5

4.8

4 .4 .

3 .8

3.7

3.3

3.2

1 5 6 .6
15 8. 3
1 6 0. 1
16 1. 5
1 6 2. 1
16 4. 1

5.0

1-8 4

5.8

5.5

5.4

4.8

4 .5

4 .0

3.9

3 .7

3.8

5.0

5 .0

2—fi4

5 .6

5 .3

5.2

4 .7

4.4

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

4.5

4.2

3 .4

3—64

S- S

5 .2

5.1

4 .A

4.3

3.9

3 .8

3 .7

3.7

4.3

4. 1

3 . í»

4 —84

5 .3

5 .0

4.9

4 .4

4.2

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

4 .1

3.8

3.5

3.5

3.1

1- 8 5

5 .3

S.O .

4 .9

4.5

4.2

_ 3.9

3.9

3.8

3 .8

4.2

4.0

3 .8

3.9

3.9

4 .8

2-ft5

5.2

5 .0

4.9

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.9

4.2

4 .1

3 .9

4.1

4.1

4 .6

3- 6 5

5.7

4-9

4 .8

4.5^

4.0

4.0

3. 9

3.9

4.2

4. 1

4.0

4. 1

4.1

4-85

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.4

4.2

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.0

3 .9

4.0

1- 8 6

4.9

4 .6

4.5

4.2

4.0

3 .8

3 .7

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.7

3.6

2-81

3-81

4 -8 1

1-82

2- 82

3- 8 2

4-82

1-8 3

2-8 3

3-8 3

4 -8 3

1- 8 4

166 .1
16 7.5
3.9

169. 1
17 0. 4
17 2. 4
4.5

1 74 .3

4.5

4 .3 _

4.2

176. 1

4 .0

4.2

4 .0

3 .8

3 .5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.0

2.4

1.4

2 -8 4

3 -8 4

4-8 4

1-85

2 -8 5

3- 8 5

4 -8 5

1 7 7. 6
17 8. 2

I N I T I A L QUARTER

OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS* BUSINESS SECTOR

________ CflflPQ W P E P -A N m M l-BATES QF CHAfttE________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

1977*100

I N I T I A L QUARTER
2- 81

3- 8 1

4 -8 1

1-82

2-8 2

3 -6 2

4-82

3-ft 1

2.4

4-61

-1 .8

-5 .8

1- 6 2

-1 .2

-2 .9

2 -8 2

-0 .5

-1 .4

0.8

1.6

3 -8 2

-0 .3

-1 .0

0 .7

1.0

0 .4

4 -8 2

0 .2

-0 .2

1 .2

1.6

1 .6

2 .8

1 -6 3

0.9

5.2

2-63

1-8 3

2 -8 3

3- 83

4- 8 3

1-84

2-84

3 -8 4

4-84

1-85

2- 6 5

3 -8 5

4-65
1 0 1 .3
99.8

0 .0

99.8
10 0. 2
100.3
1 0 1 .0

0.7

2.0

2.5

2.8

4.0

1.2

2.5

3 .0

3.3

4 .3

5.0

4.8

102.3
10 3. 5

3 -6 3

1 .2

l.l

2.1

2.5

2.6

3.2

3.3

2.4

0 .0

4-63

1 .1

1 .0

1 .9

2.2

2.2

2 .6

2.6

1.7

0.2

1 0 3. 5
0.4

103.6

1 -6 4

1.5

1. 4

2.2

2.5

2.7

3 .0

3.1

2.5

1 .8

2.7

5.1

2 -8 4

1.6

1.5

2 .2

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.9

2.5

1 .9

2.6

3 .7

2 .3

3 -6 4

1.4

1.3

2 .5

2.4

1.9

1.4

1 .7

2 .2

0 .8

-0 .8

4-6 4

1. 2

1.1

1-65

1 .2

1.1

2 -8 5

1.2

1.1

2.0

10 4.9
10 5 .5
1 0 5. 3

2.2

2.2

1 .7

1 .9

1.9

2 .1

2.0

1 .5

1 .0

1 .2

1.4

0.1

-0 .9

-1 .1

1.7

1.8

1. 8

2.0

1.9

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.3

0.4

-0 .3

0.0

1. 1

1.6

1.7

1 .7

1 .9

1.8

1.4

1 .0

1.1

1.2

0 .5

0.0

0 .3

1.0

1 0 5 .0
10 5 .3
1 0 5 .5

0 .8

10 5 .9

. 3-65

1.2

1.1

1»6

1*7

1.7

1.9

1.7

1 .4

1. 0

1.2

1.3

0 .6

0.3

0 .6

1. 1

1.1

1. 5

4 -6 5

0.9

0 .8

1.3

1. 3

1.3

1 .4

1.3

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.0

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .5

-1 .1

-3 .7

1-66

1.0

0.9

1 .3

1.4

1 .4

1 .5

1 .4

1.0

0 .7

0.8

0.8

0 .3

0 .0

0 .1

0.4

0.2

0 .0

-0 .8

2. 3

2- 8 1

3- 81

4 -8 1

1-82

2- 8 2

3- 8 2

4-82

1- 83

2-83

3-8 3

4- 8 3

1 -8 4

2-84

3 -8 4

4-6 4

1-65

2-85

3-65

4 -8 5




104.9
1 0 5 .5

I N I T I A L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
MAY 2 9 , 1986

10

PRODUCTIVITY,

COMPENSATION, AND LABOR C O S T S *

R A T I O SCALE
1977-100

R A T I O SCALE
1977-100

SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED

s o m e I U .S .

K fA K T W e M T O f I ABO*

P E R C E N T A ttS ARE AM W A L RATES OP C H A M « FOR PER IO DS IM O IC A T E D .
L A T ItT
X

BATA P IO T T E * .

IS T OÖARTER

R E V IS E ! FROM I # 4 7 .

PREPARED BY PEP ER A I RESERVE BANK O f S T .

L 0 9 IS

U N I T LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE

1977*100

IM U IA L . WÄRTER
QUARTER

-2=31__ 1=31__ <t=31__ lz£2__ 2=22__ 3-82

±=32__ 1=31__ 2=31__ 3~83

¥-83__ 1-84

2-84: . ..3t84

4 -8 4 __ 1 ^ 5 __ 2=31__ 1=31__ 4-8?

7.0
4-8 1

1- 82 .

1 4 3 .5

9 . 7 ___12 .?
_2±2___11*5

2 -82

8.8

3-82

8 .5 ___ 8 .0

4-82

9 .4

■JL47jl8—
10*4

151t5

1 .9 ___ ^ A _
7 .6

15 3 . 5
7 .2

J L tl____ 1 x1 ____ Î llÔ ____4 t £ ____4 * 2
_6^2____ it±l

156 . 2
1,3

156.7

1-83

6.1

2 -Î3

5 .1

4.9

3.7

2.4

1.6

-0 .2

—0 . 9

-1 .5

3-8 3

4 .7

4.5

3.4

2 .2

1 .6

0 .3

-0 .1

0.0

1 .5

4-8 3

4.7

4.5

3.5

2 .6

2 .1

1.1

1. 1

1. 5

3 .1

4.7

1 -6 4

4.3

4 .0

3.1

2.3

1 .8

0 .9

0.9

1. 1

2.1

2.3

0.0

2 -8 4

4.0

3 .7

2.9

2 .1

1. 7

0 .9

0.8

1.1

1.7

1. 8

0.4

0 .8

3 -8 4

4 .1

3.8

3.1

2.4

2.0

1.4

1 .4

1 .7

2.4

2.6

1.9

2.8

4.9

4-8 4

4.1

3.9

3.2

2 .5

2.3

1 .7

1.8

2.1

2.7

2.9

2 .5

3.3

4 .6

4.3

1 -8 5

4.1

3 .9

3.2

2 .6

2.4

1.9

2 .0

2 .3

2.8

3 .0

2.7

3.4

4.3

4.0

3.7

2 -8 5

4.0

3 .8

3.2

2.7

2.5

2.1

2 .1

2 .4

2 .9

3. 1

2 .8

3.4

4.1

3.8

3.6

3.5

3-85

3.9

3.8

3.2

2 .7

2 .5

2.1

2.2

2.4

2 .9

3 .1

2.8

3 .3

3.8

3 .5

3.3

3.1

2 .7

4-8 5

4.1

4.0

3 .5

3 .0

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.4

3 .9

4.4

4 .3

4 .3

4 .5

5.0

7 .4

1 -8 6

3.9

3.7

3 .2

2 .8

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.6

2 .9

3.1

2.9

3.3

3 .6

3 .4

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

-0 .9

2-8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1-82

2- 8 2

3 -8 2

4-82

1-8 3

2-Ö3

3 -d 3

4-63

1-84

2 -8 4

3-84

4-8 4

1-8 5

2-85

3- 8 5

4-85




3 .4
1 5 6 .0
1 5 6 .6
1 5 8 .4
158.4
1 5 8 .7
16 0 .6
16 2 .3

préparëô

MAY 2 9 ,

11

ôy

1986

1 6 3. 8

federal

1 6 5 .2
1 6 6 .3

Re s e r v e

1 6 9 .3

bank

1 6 8 .9

lo u is

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
B IL L IO N S OF
TERMINAL_________________ _________________________________________ ________I N I T I A L W è* TE R ____________________________________________________________ DOLLARS
QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
3-8 4 4-8 4
3 -$ 3
i-8 4
1-85
3-8 5
4 -8 5
2 -S 5
4-62
2 -6 4
2- 8 2
3-8 2
2-81
3-81
4- 8 1
1-62
4~* *
I-* ? .2-9 3

.

3 -61

11.3

4-81

6 .5

3 * 09 ? .6
3* 11 4. 4

1. 9

1 -6 2

4.2

0 .8

-0 .2

2-82

4.7

2.6

2.9

6.2

3,112.6

3-82

4,3

2.6

2.8

4 .3

2.5

4 -8 2

4.3

2.9

3.1

4.3

3.4

4.2
7.2

3,1 5 9 .5
3 ,179.4
3 ,212.5

1- 8 3

4.7

3.6

3 .9

5.0

4 .6

5.7

2-8 3

.5*6

4.8

5.3

6 .4

6.5

7 .9

9.7

12.3

3-8 3

6.0

5t3

5.8

6.8

7 .0

8.1

9.4

10.6

8. 9

4-83

6.5

6.0

6 .5

7.5

7.8

8.9

10 .0

11.0

10.4

11.8

1-64

7.4

7.1

7.7

8.7

9.0

10.2

11.4

12.5

12.5

14 .4

17.0

2-64

7.6

7. 3

7.8

8.7

9.1

10.0

11 .0

11.8

11.7

1 2 .6

13.0

9.1

3-84

7 .5

7.1

7.6

8.4

8.7

9.5

10.3

10.8

10.5

10.9

10. 6

7.5

6 .0

4-8 4

7 .2

6.9

7.3

8.1

8.3

8.9

9 .5

9.8

9 .4

9. 5

9.0

6 .4

5.1

4 .3

1- 8 5

7.2

6.9

7.3

8.0

8.1

8.7

9.2

9. 5

9. 1

9 .1

8.6

6.6

5.7

5.6

6 .9

2-85

7.0

6.8

7 .1

7.7

7.8

8.3

8 .7

8.9

8.5

8. 4

7.9

6.1

5 .4

5.2

5.7

4.5

8.6

8.2

8.1

7.6

6.1

5.5

5.4

5.7

5. 1

5.8

3,268.7
3 ,3 6 5 .1
3 ,4 3 7 .5
3,535.0
3 ,6 7 6 .5
3,757.5
3 ,8 1 2 .2
3 ,8 52.5
3,917.5
3,960.6
4 ,0 16.9

3 -8 5

7.0

6.7

7.0

7.6

7.7

8.1

8 .5

4-8 5

6.8

6.6

6.8

7.3

7.4

7 .8

8 .1

8 .2

7. 8

7.7

7. 2

5 .8

5.3

5. 2

5.4

4.9

5.0

4.3

1-66

6.8

6. 5

6.8

7 .3

7.3

7.7

8.0

8 .0

7 .6

7.5

7.1

5 .9

5.4

5. 3

5.5

5 .2

5.4

5 .3

6.3

2-81

3-8 1

4 -8 1

1-82

2- 8 2

3-82

4 -8 2

1-83

2-8 3

3-83

4-6 3

1 -8 4

2- 8 4

3 -8 4

4-84

1-85

2 -8 5

3-85

4- 8 5

4 ,0 59.3
4,1 21.3

I N I T I A L QUAK ER

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
___COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE____

2-8 1
3-81
4-6 1

BI LL IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3-8 2

4-62

1-83

2-83

3-63

4 -8 3

1- 8 4

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-65

2 -6 5

3 -8 5

4-85
3 ,2 6 4 .6

1 .8
-1 .9

3,2 19.0

-5 .5

3 ,1 7 0 .4

-5 .9

1-82

-3 .3

2-82

-2 .2

-3 .4

-2 .4

1.2

3-8 2

-2 .4

-3 .4

-2 .7

-1 .0

-3 .2

4-6 2

-1 ,9

-2 .6

-1 .9

-0 .5

-1 .3

0.6

-5 .7

3 ,1 79.9
3,1 54.5
3,1 59.3
3,1 90.6

1 -6 3

-1 .1

-1 .5

-0 .7

0.6

0 .4

2.3

4.0

2-8 3

0.1

-0 .1

0.8

2 .2

2.5

4.5

6.4

8 .9

3-8 3

0.6

0.4

1 .3

2 .6

2.8

4.4

5.7

6.5

4.3

4-8 3

1.3

1.3

2.1

3.3

3.7

5.1

6.3

7.0

6. 1

8.0

1-84

2.2

2.2

3.1

4.3

4.8

6.1

7.3

8 .1

7.9

9.7

11.4

2-84

2.4

2 .5

3.3

4.4

4.8

6.0

6.9

7.5

7. 2

8. 1

8.2

3,2 5 9 .3
3,2 9 3 .4
3,3 5 7 .2
3 ,44 9 .4
5.1

3,4 92.6
3 ,5 10.4

3-8-4

2.4

2.4

3.2

4.2

4 .5

5.5

6.2

6 .6

6.1

6.6

6.1

3 .6

4 -8 4

2.3

2.3

3 .0

3.8

4.1

4.9

5 .5

5.7

5.2

5.4

4.7

2.6

1.3

0 .6

1-85

2.4

2.4

3.0

3 .8

4.1

4.8

5 .3

5.4

5 .0

5.1

4.5

2.9

2 .1

2 .1

3.7

2-8 5

2 .3

2.3

2.9

3 .6

3.8

4.5

4.9

5.0

4 .5

4.5

3.9

2.5

1.9

1.8

2 .4

1.1

3-85

2 .3

2.4

2.9

3.6

3.8

4.3

4.7

4.8

4.3

4 .3

3.8

2.6

2.1

2.1

2.6

2.1

2.1

3 ,5 1 5 .6
3,5 4 7 .8
3 ,5 5 7 .4
3,5 8 4 .1

3 .0

3,5 9 0 .8

4-6 5

2.2

2.3

2.8

3 .4

3.5

4.1

4 .4

4.4

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.3

1.9

1. 8

2.1

1 .6

1 .9

0.7

1-86

2.3

2.3

2.8

3.4

3.5

4 .0

4.3

4.3

3.9

3.9

3.5

2.5

2.1

2.1

2.4

2 .1

2.5

2.2

3.7

2-81

3-81

4-61

1-82

2 -8 2

3-8 2

4-82

1-83

2-6 3

3 -8 3

4-63

1- 8 4

¿—84

3— 84

4-84

l-S T

2-85

3-85

4 -8 5




3 ,6 2 3 .5

i N Í t t Á L QUAftTfft

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
MAY 2 0 , 1986

12

GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
R A T I O SCALE
Q UARTERLY TOTAL S
T R I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS
SE ASONALLY

R A T I O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF DOL LARS
4. 6

AT ANNUAL RA TE S
ADJUSTED

4.4
4.2
4. 0
3. 8
3. 6
3.4
3.2
3. 0

2.8
4 .1
4. 0
3. 9
3. 8
3.7
3. 6
3. 5
3. 4
3. 3
3.2
3 .1
3. 0
2. 9

2.8
2.7
1978

979

1980

981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE« U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN DIC ATE D.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED«




1ST OUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS

13

GENERAL
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

1978

RATIO

1 979

*A S USED IN NATIO N AL

1 980

1981

1 982

1 983

INCOME ACCOUNTS

1 984

1985

SCALE

1 98 6

SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S IN D IC A T E D .
LATE ST DATA PLOTTED»

1ST QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS

I M P L I C I T PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT
__________ ÇOMPQUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________
1982 -

I N I T I A L QUARTER

TERMINAL
WÄRTER
3 -8 1

3-8 1

9.4

4 -e l

8 .8

8.3

4-81

1-82

2-82

<NI
to
1

£— 81

4- 8 2

1-83

2-8 3

3 -8 3

4-63

1 -8 4

2-84

3 -8 4

4-84

1-85

2 -8 5

3 -8 5

94.9
96 .6

1-82

7 .8

7 .1

5.9

2-82

7.1

6.4

5.4

5.0

3-82

6.8

6.2

5 .5

5.4

5.8

4 -8 2

6 .3

5 .7

5.1

4.8

4.7

3.6

1-63

5.8

5.2

4.6

4.3

4 .0

3 .2

2 .8

2-83

5.5

4.9

4.4

4 .1

3 .8

3 .2

3.0

3-6 3

5.4

4 .9

4 .4

4.2

4 .0

3.6

4 -8 3

5.2

4.7

4.3

4.1

3.9

3.6

1-84

5 .2

4 .8

4 .4

4 .2

4.1

3.8

2-6 4

5.1

4.7

4.3

4.1

4 .0

98 ,2
99 .4
10 0.8

3.8

10 1 .7
10 2 .4
3.2

10 3.2

3.6

3 .9

4.7

10 4 .4

3.5

3.8

4 .1

3.5

3 .8

4.1

4.4

4 .3

5.0

3.8

4 .0

4 .3

4.1

4.4

10 5.3
106.6
107.6

3.8

1 0 8 .6

3 -6 4

5.0

4.6

4 .3

4 .1

4 .0

3.8

3 .8

4.0

4.2

4.0

4.2

3.8

3.8

4 -8 4

4.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

4 .0

3.8

3 .8

4.0

4.1

4.0

4 .1

3 .8

3 .8

3.7

1—65

4.7

4 .4

4 .1

4 .0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.8

3 .9

3.8

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.3

2-85

4*6

4.3

4.1

3.9

3 .8

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.7

3 .8

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.1

3 .3

3 -8 5

4 .5

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3 .6

3 .4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3 .1

2 .9

4 -6 5

4.5

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3 .6

3.6

3 .7

3.6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .3

3.2

3.1

3 .2

3.1

3.3

1-86

4 .4

4.1

3 .9

3.7

3 .6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3 .6

3 .5

3 .5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.5

3 -6 1

4-81

1- 82

2-82

3- 62

4- 8 2

1-83

2-8 3

3- 8 3

4- 6 3

1- 84

2-64

3 -8 4

4-64

1- 6 5

2 -8 5

3-85

4—65

2-81

100

4 -8 5




1 0 9. 6
1 1 0 .4

3 .0

11 1 .3
11 2. 1
1 1 3 .0
1 1 3 .7

I N I T I A L QUARTER

REPAREE) 6V FÉDÉRAL RESERVE RANK OF S T . LOUIS
MAY 20*1986

14

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
____________ COHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________
T ERMI NAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4-81

_ 1-92

2-82

3-92

4-02

1-03

2-83

3-83

4-0 3

1-94

2-94

3-04

4-04

1-05

CD
1

3-01

3-91

fV!

2 -9 1

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RAT E S

QUARTER
3-95

4—05
1*940.9

? t 7

4-01

4.0

1,960.2

1-92

5.9

7.6

1,996.3
2.023.0

2-02

£*7

?t7

<>t6 _ 5*6

3-62

7.1

6.4

7*2

7.1

9.5

4-02

7.6

7.2

9.0

8.1

9.4

10.3

1-83

7.3

6.9

7*5

7.5

8.1

7.9

2-03

8,0

7.7

9.3

9.5

9*2

9.4

9.0

12.5

3-03

9.0

7.9

9.3

9.5

9.0

9.2

8.8

10.4

2,065.6
2,117.0
2,146.0

5.6

2,210.1
8.4

2,254.9
2,306.3

4-8 3

0.1

9*0

9*5

9.6

9.1

9.2

8.9

10.1

8.9

9.4

1-64

8.3

9*1

8.6

9.7

9.1

9.2

9.0

9.9

9.1

9.4

9.4

2-84

9*4

8*3

8.7

8.9

9.2

9.3

9.2

9.9

9.2

9.5

9.6

9.8

3-84

9.1

7*9

8*3

9.3

9.6

8.7

9.4

8.9

8.2

8.2

7.7

6.9

4-04

9.0

7.8

8.2

9*2

9.5

8.5

8.2

8.6

8.0

7.9

7.5

6.9

5.5

6.9

1-85

7.9

7.8

8.1

8. 1

9.4

8.4

8.1

8.5

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.1

6.2

7.2

7.4

2-85

7.8

7.7

8.0

8.0

9.2

8.2

9.0

8.2

7.7

7.6

7.3

6.9

6.2

6.9

6.9

2,358.6
2,414.4
4.1

2,439.0
2,400.1
2,525.0
6.2

2,563.3
2,606.1

3-05

7.9

7*6

7.9

7.9

9.1

8.1

7.9

8.1

7.6

7.5

7.2

6.9

6.3

6.9

__ 6 . 8

6.5

6.0

4-05

7.6

7.5

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.6

7.7

7,3

7.2

6.9

6.5

6.0

6.4

6.2

5.0

5.7

4.5

1-06

7.5

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.7

6.4

5.9

6.2

6.1

5.7

5.5

4.9

5.3

2-91

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-92

3-82

4-82

1-03

2-83

3-83

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-04

1-05

2-95

3-85

4-05

IN ITIAL

2,634.0
2,669.1

QUARTER

PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E XPENDI T URE S I N 1982 DOLLARS
___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE____________
B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

4-91

1-82

2-92

3-9 2

4-02

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-03

1-94

2-94

*

3-91

CD

2-9*'

w
1

I N I T I A L QUARTER

T ERMI NAL
QUARTER

4-04

1-85

2-95

3-95

4-05
2,031.5

3-01

1.9

4-01

-0.2

-2.2

1-02

0.6

0.0

2.2

2-02

0.9

0.6

2.1

1.9

3-02

1.2

1.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

4-02

1.9

1.9

2.9

3.1

3.7

5.3

2,020.0
2,031.2
2,041.0
2,051.0
2,070.7

1-03

2.1

2.1

3.0

3.2

3.6

4.4

3.4

2-03

2.9

2.9

3.9

4.2

4.7

5.6

5.7

8.0

3-03

3.0

3.2

4.0

4.2

4.7

5.4

5.4

6.3

2,096.4
2,137.2
4.7

2,161.8

4-03

3.2

3.4

4.1

4.3

4.7

5.3

5.3

5.9

4.9

5.0

1-04

3.3

3.4

4.1

4.3

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.5

4.6

4.6

4.2

2-04

3.5

3.7

4.3

4.5

4.0

5.2

5.2

5.6

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.9
3.0

0.1

2,100.1
2,210.9
2,243.0

3-04

3.2

3.4

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.0

3.9

3.4

4—0 4

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.3

4.4

3.9

3.7

3.4

3.1

1.7

3.4

1-05

3.4

3.5

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.5

2.7

4.1

4.9

2.7

3.6

3.7

2.6

2,243.4
2,262.0
2,208.6

2-05

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.2

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.5

3.3

3-05

3.4

3.5

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.3

3.9

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.9

4.0

3.6

4-05

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.0

2.4

2.3

0.1

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.9

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.0

2.1

4.2

1-93

2-63

3-03

4-03

1-04

2-94

3-04

4-04

1-05

2-05

3-05

4-05

1-06

3.3

3.3

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.9

2-91

3-01

4-01

1-92

2-02

5-02

4-02




2,303.5
4.6

2,329.6
2,330.4
2,354.3

I N I T I A L QUARTER

RREPAREO T V FEDER AI RESERVE "SANK OF S T . LO U IS
MAY 20* 1906

15

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
---------------------- C fr1 * W ttEP ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_____________
TEKMIHAL
QUARTER
2- 8 1

2 -8 2

3-82

4 -8 2

1-83

2- 8 3

4—63

3-8 3

1-8 4

2-8 4

3 -8 4

4-8 4

1-85

2 -8 5

3—85

4-85
535.9

-21*8

5 0 4 .0

l-S ?

-1 4 .2

-26*5 -30 * 9

2-8 2

-9 .2

-16*6 -13*8

3-Ô2

-9 .9

-15*6 -13*5

459.5
7*4

467.8

-3*2 -12*7

4-8 2

ril4*2 - 1 9 * 3 - 1 8 * 7 - 1 4 . 2 - 2 3 . 3

1 -8 3

-_10 .4 -1 4 * 3 - 1 2 * 7

452.2
-3 2 .7

409.6

-7* 5 -12*0 -11*7

15*9

9 .4

39.5

67.8

425.0

2-83

-3*1

-5*7

4*2

3*4

3-83

0*5

-1*4

1*9

8*8

9.0

15.3

37 .9

50.4

34. 8

4-8 3

4*7

3*4

7*1

14 .0

15 .1

21.6

41.0

50. 5

42.6

50 .8

1-64

9 .3

8.6

12 .6

19.7

21.6

t**\
00
(M

46 .3

5 5 .0

51 .0

59 .8

69 .2

2-8 4

9.3

8 .7

1 2 .3

18 .5

2 5 .5

39 .3

44 .5

39 .2

40.7

35 .9

9.1

3-8 4

9*3

8 .7

12*0

1 7 .5

18 .7

2 3 .3

3 4 .5

37 .9

32 .5

3 2 .0

26.2

9.0

9.0

4-8 4

8 .1

7.4

10*3

15 .1

15 .9

19. 6

2 8 .5

3 0 .4

25.0

23*2

17.1

3.5

0.9

24*4

10*9

483.7
5 2 1 .2
577*6
6 5 8 .8
673.3
687 . 9
-6 .6

6 7 6 .2

6*7

6.0

8*5

12*7

13*2

16*2

19*2

16*8

-0 .2

-3 .1

-8 * 6 -1 0 * 6

2-85

6*9

6*3

8*6

12*4

12*9

15*5

22*0

2 2 .6

17.9

15.7

10.7

1.7

-0 .1

-2 .9

-1 .0

9.6

3-85

6*2

5*6

7*7

11 .2

11 .5

13.8

19.3

19.7

15.3

13. 0

8.5

0 .7

-0 .9

-3 .2

-2 .0

2.6

-3 .9

4-6 5

6.4

5.8

7.8

11.0

11.3

13 .4

18 .4

18.7

14.6

12 .6

8.6

1.9

0 .7

-0 .8

0.7

4.7

2.4

9.1

1-8 6

7*2

6.6

8.6

11.7

12.0

14 .0

18.7

19 .0

15.3

13.5

10.0

4.2

3.5

2.6

4 .6

8.8

8.5

15 .4

22.0

2-8 1

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-8 2

4 -8 2

1-83

2-8 3

3-8 3

4- 6 3

1-84

2-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-65

CD

1 -8 5

23*4

T
•l"

-2*7

657.6
672.8
6 6 6 .1
680.7
715.4

I N I T I A L QUARTER

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 DOLLARS

________ ÇQHPOVNPEP ANNUAL *ATÇ? QF ÇHànQE________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

I NI TI AL

2 -8 1
3-8 1

3-81

4 -8 1

1- 8 2

2-82

3-8 2

4 -8 2

1-83

2- 8 3

BI LL IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

3-83

4 -6 3

1-84

2-84

3 -8 4

4-84

1-85

2- 8 5

3- 8 5

4-85
560*7

7 .1

4-8 1

-11*7 -2 7 .2

517.9

1-62

-20*5 - 3 1 . 5

2-8 2

-15*2 -21*5 -18*5

3-62

-15*2 -2 0 .0 -1 7 .4

464*2

-3 5 .5

4-8 2

-1 8 t 1 -2 2 .3

1 -8 3

-1 4 .1

2 -6 3

-5 .8

-7 .5

-3*8

-2 1 .1

-17*2 - 1 5 . 0

467.5

2*9

446.6

- 6 * 6 -1 5 * 2

408.8

-1 5 .6 -2 3 .5 -3 1 .0
-9 .0
4*3

- 1 2 * 6 -1 1 *3

14*1

12*2

43 .1

4*6

422.5
489.0

79.4

526.3

3-8 3

-2 * 0

-3*1

0*9

8 .7

9.9

17 .3

40. 1

55 .2

34 .2

4—63

1 .8

1*2

5*5

13*1

14*9

22*1

40.9

5 1 .1

38.7

4 3 .4

1-64

6*1

6*0

10*5

18.2

20.6

27.9

4 4 .7

53.6

4 5 .9

52 .1

61.3

2-8 4

6*3

6.3

10 .4

17.2

19 .1

25.0

4 3 .4

35.6

36.0

32 .5

8 .8

3 -8 4

6 .4

6.3

10.0

1 6 .0

17.6

2 2 .5

33.0

36.4

29 .2

27.9

23 .2

7 .6

6.4

5*1

8*4

13*6

14 .8

18. 7

27 .1

2 9 .0

22 .1

19 .8

14.6

2.2

-0 .9

4-6 4
1-85

4.0

2 -85

4.4

3-8 5

3.8

_

O

.

17.0
-4 .3

1-82

o
o

_

3-81
4-8 1

4—81

3—81

CD

_

BI LL IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L QUARTER

575.9
649.0
662.9
673.3
-7 .7

659.9
639.6

3*8

6.7

11*3

12 .1

15 .2

22.0

2 3 .0

16. 6

13 .9

8.8

-1 .4

-4 .7

-9 .8

4,3

7*0

11*2

11.9

14. 8

20 .8

21.6

15.8

13.4

9.0

0.8

-1 .1

-3 .5

-1 .3

10.4

3*6

6*0

9*9

1 0 .4

1 2 .9

18.0

1 8 .4

13.1

10 .7

6.7

-0 .4

-2 .2

-4 .2

-3*0

1 .7

—6*3
0.0

6.8

-1 1 .7

655.6
645.0
6 5 5.7

4-8 5

3.9

3.8

6.1

9.6

1 0 .1

1 2 .4

17.1

17 .3

12 .4

1 0 .3

6.7

0 .6

-0 .7

-2 .1

—0*6

3 .4

1 -8 6

4*5

4*4

6*6

10*0

10*5

12 .7

17 .0

17 .2

12.8

1 0 .8

7.7

2.4

1.5

0 .7

2*5

6.4

5.1

11 .4

16 .1

2 -8 1

3-81

4 -8 1

1- 8 2

2 -8 2

3-8 2

4 -8 2

1-8 3

2 -8 3

3- 8 3

4-83

1-84

2-8 4

3 -8 4

4 -8 4

1-8 5

2 -6 5

3- 8 5

4-85




680.7

I N I T I A L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
MAY 20* 1986

16

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS ANO SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
_________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________
TERMINAL
QUARTER
_ 2 -8 l

I N I T I A L QUARTER
3 -8 1 _ 4- 8 1

1-82

2-82

3 -8 2

4-82

1-8 3

2-83

3-83

4- 6 3

1- 8 4

2-84

3—84

4-8 4

1-8 5

2- 8 5

3-6 5

B I L L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
4-85
591.9

3- 8 1

10*7

4-91

13 . 0

15*3

1-82

10 .6

10. 5

5.9

2-82

8*4

7.7

4.1

2.3

3-82

9,6

9*3

7.4

8*2

14.4

4-82

1 0 .7

1 0 .T

9.5

10 .8

15.3

16 .2

1-8 3

8.8

8.5

7*2

7*6

9*4

7*0

-1 .5

2-8 3

8*1

7.7

6.5

6.6

7.7

5 .5

0.6

2.7

613.3
622.1
625.7
647*1
671.8
669.3
673*8
681*1

3-83

7*7

7*3

6*2

6*2

7.0

5.3

1 .9

3.6

4.4

4-83

6.7

6*3

5*2

5*1

5*6

3.9

1 .0

1 .9

1. 4

-1 .5

1- 8 4

7*1

6*7

5*8

5*8

6.3

5.0

2.9

4.1

4 .5

4.6

11.0

2-8 4

8*4

8*2

7*5

7.7

8.4

7.6

6.2

7.8

9.1

10.7

17.3

2 4 .1

3-8 4

8*3

8*1

7.5

7.6

8.2

7.5

6.3

7.6

8.6

9.7

13.7

15.1

6.8

4-84

8.5

8*4

7*8

8.0

8.6

7.9

6.9

8.2

9.2

10.1

13.2

14 .0

9.3

11 .8

1-8 5

8. 3

8*1

7*6

7.7

8 .2

7.6

6.7

7 .8

8.5

9 .2

11.5

11.6

7.7

8 .2

2 -8 5

8*3

8*2

7*7

7.8

8.3

7.8

7.0

7.9

8.6

9 .2

11.1

11.1

8.1

8.6

7.0

9.4

3-85

9*0

8.9

8 .5

8.7

9.2

8.8

8.1

9 .1

9 .9

10.6

12.4

12 .6

10.5

11 .4

11 .3

1 4 .7

?0.4

9.0

8.5

9 .4

10 .1

10.8

12.4

12 .6

10.8

11.6

11*6

14 .0

16 .3

12.4

67 8.6
696*5
735*1
747.3
768 . 4
77 7 .2

4 .7

794.8

*
i
CD
V*

832.5

9.2

9 .1

8.7

8.9

9 .4

1-8 6

8*1

8.0

7*6

7 ,7

8.1

7.6

7.0

7.7

8.2

8.6

9.7

9 .6

7.7

7 .8

7 .0

7.6

7.1

1.0

-9 .3

2-8 1

3-8 1

4- 8 1

1-82

2- 8 2

3-8 2

4 -8 2

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-8 3

1-84

2- 8 4

3-8 4

4-84

1-85

2-85

3—65

4-85

857.2
836.6

I N I T I A L ÖUaAT?*

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS
_____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E _______________
BI LL IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
2-8 1

3- 8 1

4- 8 1

3-81

2 .4

4-81

3.1

3. 7

1- 8 2

1.7

1.4

-0 .8

1-82

2-8 2

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-8 3

4-63

1- 8 4

2-84

3-8 4

4-8 4

1-85

2-85

3-8 5

4 -6 5

630.2
635.9
634.6

2-82

0.5

-0 .1

-1 .9

-3 .1

3-82

2 .1

2.0

1.4

2.5

8.4

629.7

4-82

3.6

3.8

3.8

5.4

9.9

11.4

642.5
660.1

1-63

2.1

2.0

1.7

2.3

4.1

2.1

-6 .5

2-83

1.7

1. 6

1 .3

1.7

2.9

1.2

-3 .6

—0 . 6

3-63

1.8

1. 7

1.4

1. 8

2. 8

1.4

-1 .7

0.7

2.1

-2 .7

-1 .4

-1 .8

-5 .6

0.2

0 .4

-0 .4

5 .0

649.1
648*2
651*5

4-8 3

1 .0

0 .8

0.5

0.7

1.3

0.0

1-84

1 .4

1.3

1 .0

1 .2

1.8

0.8

-1 .2

2 .5

2.9

3.7

3.0

1.7

3.4

4.5

5.3

11.2

17 .7

1.9

3.4

4.2

4.7

8.4

10.2

2-6 4

2.6

2.6

3-6 4

2 .7

2.7

4 -6 4

3.0

3.0

1 -6 5

2.7

2.7

2.6

642*2
65 0.1
677.1
3.2

682.4

2.9

3.6

3.1

3 .0

3.3

4.0

3.5

2.5

3.9

4.6

5.2

8.1

9.1

5.0

6 .9

2.6

2.9

3.5

3.0

2.1

3.2

3.8

4 .0

6.1

6*4

2.8

2 .7

-1 .4

2.3

3.4

3.9

4.1

5.9

6.0

3.3

3.3

1.6

693.9
691.4
4.7

699.4

2.8

2 .8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3 .1

3- 8 5

3 .6

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.6

4.3

3.7

4.8

5 .4

5.8

7.5

8 .0

6.1

6.9

6.8

11. 2

18.2

4-65

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.9

4.7

4.1

5.2

5.8

6.2

7.7

8 .1

6.6

7 .3

7.4

10 .6

1 3 .6

9 .2

1 -6 6

2.9

3 .0

2.9

3.2

3 .6

3.3

2.7

3.5

3.8

4.0

5 .1

5.2

3.5

3.5

2 .9

4.0

3.7

-2 .8

-1 3 .6

3-81

4- 8 1

1-82

2 -8 2

3-Ö2

4-8 2

l-è 3

3-8 3

4- 8 3

1 -8 4

2-84

3-9 4

4-8 4

1—65

2-85

3- 6 5

4—« 5

N>
I
CD

2-8 5




729.2
745.5
718.8

INITIAL QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
MAY 20 » 1986

17

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COHPOUNPEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
B IL L IO N S OF
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER__________________________________________________________
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
QUARTER
2
8
4
3
-8
4
4
8
4
1-8
4
3
8
3
1-8
5
2
8
5
48
3
1-83
3-6
5
4
-8
2
4-8
5
2-8
3
3-8
2
4
-8
1
1-82
28
2
3
-8
1
2— 81
2* 1 6 2 . 0

3—81

13.2

4-8 1

8.9

4*7

1- 8 2

7.1

4.2

2* 1 8 7 . 0
3.7

2 * 20 7 .2

2-82

7.0

5.0

5*1

6*4

3-8 2

6.9

5.4

5 .6

6*6

6.7

4-82

7.0

5.7

6.0

6.8

6 .9

7.1

1—83

6.6

5 .6

5.8

6.3

6.2

6 .0

4.8

6.5

6 .4

6.1

2-83

6,7

5.8

6 .0

6.5

2 * 24 1 .8
2*278*6
2*318*1
2* 34 5 .5
7.4

2 * 38 7 .7

3-8 3

7.1

6.4

6*7

7.1

7.3

7 #4

7.5

8.9

10.5

4 -8 3

7.7

7*1

7*4

7.9

8.1

8.4

8 .7

10.1

11 .4

12 .4

1-84

8*3

7 .8

8 .2

8.7

9.1

9.5

10 .0

11.3

12 .6

13.7

2 * 44 7 .9
2*520.4
2,610.2
2 ,6 4 9 .9

*

2^84

8*1

7.7

8.0

8.5

8.7

9.0

9.3

10.3

11.0

11 .2

10.5

6.2

3-8 4

8*1

7*6

7.9

8.3

8.6

8 .8

9.0

9.7

10.2

1 0 .2

9.4

6 .7

7.3

4-8 4

7*8

7*4

7.6

7.9

8.1

8.3

8.4

8.9

9.2

8.9

8 .1

5.8

5.7

4.1

1-85

7 .4

7.0

7.2

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.7

8 .1

8.2

7.8

6.9

4.9

4 .5

3.2

2.3

2-85

7.7

7.3

7.5

7.8

7.9

8.0

8. 1

8.5

8.6

8.4

7.7

6 .3

6.3

6.0

7.0

12.0

3-85

7.1

6.7

6.8

7.0

7.1

7. 1

7 .1

7.3

7.3

7.0

6.2

4.8

4 .5

3.8

3.8

4 .5

-2 .5

00
1

15 .0

7.0

6.7

6 .8

7 .0

7.1

7. 1

7. 1

7.3

7 .3

6.9

6 .3

5.1

4.9

4.4

4.5

5.2

2.0

6.7

6.3

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.0

5.7

3.7

6.8

7.0

4- 6 3

1- 8 4

2-84

3-84

4-Ä4

1-85

2-85

3-8 5

4-8 5

1- 8 6

7.0

6.7

6 .8

7.0

7.1

7. 1

7. 1

7.3

7.3

6.9

2-8 1

3-81

4-81

1-8 2

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-8 3

3 -8 3

2 ,6 9 6 .7
2 * 72 3 .8
2* 7 3 9 .2
2* 8 1 7 .7
2* 80 0 .2
2 * 84 5 .9
2* 89 4 .5

IK1T T I À L QUARTER

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______
BI LLI O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
2-8 1
3-81

5.1

4-8 1

1.7

3-81

4-81

i-82

2-82

3-8 2

4-82

1-83

2-83

3 -6 3

4-6 3

1-8 4

2-84

3-84

4-8 4

2-85

3-6 5

4 -8 5
2 * 2 6 2 .9
2,2 53.7

-1 .6

2 ,2 4 5 .7

1 -8 2

0.6

-1 .5

-1 .4

2-82

1*2

-0 .1

0.6

2 .7

3-82

1.0

0.0

0 .6

1*6

0.4

4-8 2

1.2

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.3

2.3

1-63

1.4

0 .8

1*3

2*0

1*8

2.5

2.7

2-83

1*6

1.2

1*6

2.2

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.1

2,2 60.9
2,263.4
2* 27 6 .1
2,2 9 1 .3
2* 3 0 9 . 0
2 ,3 46.9

3-6 3

ZfZ

1*8

2*3

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.2

4.9

6.7

4 -8 3

2*7 _ 2*5

3*0

3.7

3.8

4.5

5.1

5.9

7.3

7.8

1-84

3 .3

3. 2

3.7

4.4

4.6

5.3

6.0

6. 8

8.0

8.7

9.6

2-6 4

3*3

3.1

3*6

4.2

4 .3

4.9

5.4

5.9

6.6

6.6

6.0

2.5

3-8 4

3*3

3*1

3.5

4.1

4.2

4.7

5 .0

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.0

2.8

3.1

4 -8 4

3*1

2 . 9 _ 3*3

3.7

3.8

4.2

4.5

4.7

5.0

4.7

3.9

2.1

1.8

0.6

2*7 _ 3*0

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.9

4. 1

4.2

3.8

3.0

1.5

1.1

0.2

-0 .3

1 -8 5

1-85

2,3 91.3
2,4 4 6 .8
2,4 61.8
2,4 8 0 .5
2*464.4
2 * 4 8 2 .7

2-8 5

3.2

3*0

3*4

3.8

3*8

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.4

3.9

2.8

2 .9

2.8

3 .9

8 .2

3-8 5

2.7

2*6

2.8

3 .1

3.2

3.4

3.5

3 .6

3.7

3.3

2.6

1.5

1.3

0.9

1.0

1.7

-4 .5

3 .4

3 .5

3 .5

3.2

2.6

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.3

1. 9

-1 .2

2.3

2* 53 2 .2
2 * 50 3 .1
2,5 1 7 .1

4-8 5

1-1

2.5

2 .8

3.1

3.1

3.3

1-8 6

2*8

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.0

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.8

1.1

4 .0

5.8

2-81

3-81

4 -8 1

1-8 2

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-8 3

3-83

4 -6 3

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-8 5

2-85

*-65

4-65




2,5 5 3 .1

I N I T I A L QUARTER

PREPARED ÔY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U li
MAY 20* 1986

18

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES*
COWPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

6IUIOH5 Of

I

(Nl
CO

TERM INAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________ POLLARS
QUARTER
iim ik t ftATÉS
4-82
1-83
3 -8 2
2-81
3-81
4-81
2 -8 3
1-82
3-83
1- 8 5
2-8 5
3 -8 5
4-8 4
4 -8 5
1- 6 4
2-84
3-8 4
4-83
7 .5
4-8 1

-1 .1

144*4
-9 .1

14 1 .0

1 -8 2

-3 0 .9 -4 4 .6 -6 6 .2

2-6 2

-2 4 .5

107.5

o

-1 .8

-2 5 .7 -3 0 .5

-0 .4

-2 2 .9 -2 6 .0

-3 .9

4-8 2

-1 8 .5

1- 8 3

-1 4 .3 -1 7 .5 -1 9 .1

107.0
10 7. 3

1. 1

10 4 .3

—5 .0 - 1 0 . 7

10 8 .2

1.5

1.7

15. 8

-5 .7

-7 .5

-7 .2

13.5

17 .8

23.9

45.9

83 .9

3-83

-0 .2

-1 .1

0.1

20.0

24.9

31 .7

49.9

4-83

0 .5

-0 .2

0.9

18.0

2 1 .7

2 6 .3

3 7 .7

4 5 .8

29.9

6.7

1- 8 4

1.6

1.1

2.3

17 .5

20 .5

2 4 .1

32 .5

37 .1

2 4 .3

10.2

13.7

l.l

0.6

1.6

14 .8

17.1

1 9 .6

25 . 5

27 . 6

16 .4

5.1

4 .4

-4 .2

2-8 4

V*

0.7

2 -8 3

-1
o

3-8 2

1

0

-3 2 .9 -4 2 .4

12 6 .0
141.3

58.2

143.6
14 8. 3
14 6 .7
14 0 .3

3-84

-0 .3

-1 .0

-0 .2

11.2

12 .8

14 .3

18 .5

18 .9

9.0

—0 . 7

-3 .1

-10.5

-16 .3

4-8 4

-0 .2

-0 .8

-0 .1

10.3

11.5

12 .8

16.1

16.1

7.6

-0 .4

-2.1

-6 .9

-8 .1

0.9

1- 8 5

-1 .0

-1 .6

-1 .0

8.3

9.3

10. 1

12 .7

12 .4

4.7

-2 .2

-3 .9

-7 .9

-9 .1

-5 .2

-1 0 .9

140.6
13 6.6
136.4

-1 .5

-0 .9

7.6

8.4

9 .1

11.3

10.8

4.0

-2 .0

-3 .4

-6 .5

-7 .0

-3 .7

-5 .9

-0 .6

-0 .1

-0 .6

0.0

8. 1

8.9

9.6

11 .6

11. 2

5.2

-0 .1

-1 .0

-3 .3

-3 .1

0.6

0.5

6.7

14 .5

0 .8

0 .4

1 .0

8.6

9.4

1 0 . 1

12 .0

11 .7

6.3

1.7

l.l

-0 .6

0.0

3.6

4 .3

10 .0

15 .7

16.8

8.8

-0 .4

-0 .6

2.1

3.0

-2 .3

-1 8 .2

1-83

3-84

4-8 4

1-8 5

7-85

3- 8 5

4-85

*

1
00

-1 .0

3-85

1 -8 6

-0 .3

-0 .8

-0 .3

6.7

7 .3

7 .8

9.4

2-8 1

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-6 2

3-6 2

4—82

3 .8

-0 .5

-1 .3

-3 .0

-2 .8

Ki
00
1
N

2-85

3-83

4-8 3

1-8 4

2-84

141.1
1 4 6 .7
1 3 9 . 5P

I N I T I A L QUARTER
* NATIONAL INCOME BASIS
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
HAY 20* 1986

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly
presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for
1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of
Current Business» Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82
and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate
volumes.
These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy
printout. For further information and prices, write to the National
Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

IN V E N T O R IE S COMPARED W ITH MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING

AND TRADE

68

1

64

1

60

1.56

56

1

52

I

48

1

44

I

40

1

36

1

32

I

28

24

1
1

1973

1

1

«RATIOS

BASED

ON S E A S O N A L L Y

SHADED

AREAS

REPRESENT

LATEST

DATA




PLOTTED:

ADJUSTED

PERIODS

1979

1

DATA.

OF B U S I N E S S

1981

1982

SOURCE:

1983

1

1986

1

U . S . DEPARTMENT

OF COMMERCE

RECESSIONS.

MARCH P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED

20

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK OF S T .

LOUIS