Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1987
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National Economic Trends January 1987 Spending by foreigners on U.S. goods and services has declined markedly as a percent of GNP during this decade. As the table below shows, the shares of three major components of spending have risen since 1980 at the expense of a decline in the share of net exports. One potential source of increased shares of spending on goods and services is a corresponding increase in the share of spending on imports, since imported goods are included in the other three expen diture categories. But this has not been the case: spending on imports has not kept pace with the overall growth of GNP since 1980 (see table). Instead, the overall shift in shares has been associated with a decline in foreign purchases or exports from 12.8 percent of GNP in 1980 to 8.9 percent. This reallocation to domestic spending represents a shift of about $160 billion in sales in 1986. In general, spending on both imports and exports has been weak when compared with gains in the nation’s GNP. The decline in total foreign trade spending (exports plus imports) relative to GNP from 24.5 percent in 1980 to 20.2 percent in 1986 is a major reversal of patterns in the 1970s. From 1971 to 1980, spending on both imports and exports grew much faster than GNP, rising from 12.6 percent of GNP to its peak in 1980. The decline in demand for U.S. exports led to a relative price change that played a major role in the shifting share of exports. The implicit price deflator for exports rose only 11.3 percent from 1980 to 1986, much slower than the 33.6 percent rise in the implicit price deflator for GNP. The decline in the relative price of export goods induced a rise in the volume of domestic purchases of exportable goods and accounted for about half of the fall in the share of export spen ding in GNP; the decline in the share of real exports in real GNP accounted for the rest of the fall. Meanwhile, the implicit price deflator for imports fell from 1980 to 1986, resulting in a decline in the relative price of imports of 28.3 percent over the same period. A price-induced rise in import volume compensated, in part, for this relative price decline so that the share of the nation’s income spent on imports declined only slightly. Major Spending Components as a Percent of GNP: 1980 and 1986 Component 1986 1980 Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods & Services Net Exports 65.6% 16.3 20.6 -2 .5 63.4% 16.0 19.4 1.2 Exports Imports 8.9 11.4 12.8 11.7 -John A. Tatom THE FEDERAL RESERVE RANK of ST. LOUIS Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve system. TOTAL C IV IL IA N EM£LQYMfNT»___ COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 5-85 6-85 -5*0 7-85 -0.9 6- 85 7 85 8- 85 9-85 101-85 11-85 12- 85 2- 86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 0-86 106 * 541 3 .4 106*842 t ÒY t i 56 8-85 0.5 3.4 3.4 9-85 1.7 4 .0 4 .3 5 .3 10-85 1.8 3.6 3.6 3 .7 2.1 H-85 1.8 3. 3 3.2 3.2 2.1 2.1 12-85 1.9 3 .0 3.0 2 .9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1-86 2.7 3 .8 3.9 4 .0 3 .6 4. 1 5.2 2 .0 2 .9 2.8 2 .7 2.1 2.1 2-86 1-86 9 -66 10-06 11 -06 10>*602 107*792 107*978 108*149 108*092 8 .6 2.2 2.3 -3 .6 100*557 1ÖÖ* 807 3-86 2.0 2 .8 2.8 2 .7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 -0 .5 2.8 *-86 2.0 2 .7 2.7 2 .6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.3 2 .3 1.0 5-86 2.0 2 .7 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 .3 0.8 2.3 2.0 6-86 2.3 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.6 2 .9 3.0 3 .6 5.0 7-86 2.3 2 .9 2.9 2 .8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.4 4 .0 3.0 8-86 2.3 2 .8 2.8 2 .7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2 .7 1.9 2.8 2.0 3.1 3.3 2 .5 2.0 9-86 2.1 2.6 2.5 2 .5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 .3 1.5 2 .3 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 - 0 .9 108*969 109 * 165 2.2 109*613 109*887 11Ò* 067 109*987 110*192 10-86 2.1 2 .6 2.5 2 .4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 .3 1.6 2.3 2.2 2 .3 2.3 1.6 I.1 0.7 2Y5 11-86 2.1 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2 .3 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 ¿.5 i.t> 12-86 2.1 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2 .3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2*3 2 .3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2*4 2*4 5-85 6- 95 7 05 8- 85 9-85 10-05 11-05 12- 05 1-06 2 - 06 3-06 4-06 5-86 6-06 7-86 8-86 110*432 2.3 110*637 9-8 6 10-86 11-06 IN IT IA L MONTH «REVISED FROM 1982 PREPAREO 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 9* 1987 PAYROLL ENPL0YN6NT COMP OUNOED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 5-85 6-85 7-95 9- 95 9-85 10—95 ii- 9 5 12-95 1-96 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 2-96 3-96 4-96 1*3 7-85 2.1 2 .9 8-85 2 .3 2 .8 7-96 t -9 6 » -8 6 10—96 1 1 —«6 97*890 2 .7 9-85 2 .5 2 .8 2 .8 3 *9 2 .7 3.1 3 .1 3,3 3, 7 11-85 2 .7 3 .0 3*1 3 •2 3, 3 12-85 2 .8 3 .0 3.1 3 .2 3, 2 3.0 3*0 1-8 6 3.0 3 .3 3.4 3.5 3, 6 3.6 3*9 4 .8 2-86 2 .9 3.1 3.1 3•2 3. 2 3.1 3.1 3 .2 3-86 2 .7 2 ,8 ? *8 2*9 2 .6 2*5 2*3 1*1 0*7 *-86 2.7 2 .9 2 .9 2. 9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .0 2. 2 3 .7 2 ,5 1 .9 2 «0 2 ,6 1 .6 2 .7 6-96 97*672 10-85 5-86 5-96 97*442 <►-$5 2 .8 2 .9 98*128 99*428 98*666 2 .9 2 *9 2 .8 2. 7 2 .6 2 ,6 90*910 99*296 99*429 1 .6 99*484 99*793 99*918 6-86 2*4 2*5 2.4 2*4 2*3 2*2 2*1 1*9 1*3 1.3 W5 0*4 - 0 .9 7-86 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 *> 2, 4 2 .3 2*2 2 .1 1 .6 1 .6 1 ,9 1 .3 1.1 3 .2 99*943 8-86 2 .4 2 *5 2*5 2 ** 2. 4 2 .3 2*2 2 .1 i* 7 1.7 1 .9 1 .5 1.5 2 .7 100*105 100*293 2 *2 9-86 2.5 2 .6 2.5 2 .5 2. 5 2 .4 2*3 2 .2 1*9 2. 0 2 .2 1*9 1.9 2*9 2 .9 3 .4 10-86 2 *5 2 ,6 2 ,6 2 .6 2. 5 2 .4 2*4 2 .3 2*1 2*1 2*3 2.1 2 *2 3 .0 2*9 3 .3 3 .2 11-86 2 .5 2 .6 2 ,6 2 .6 2*6 2*5 2*4 2*4 2*1 2* 2 2 .4 2 *2 2 .3 3 ,0 2*9 3 ,2 3*1 2 .9 12-86 2*6 2 .6 2*6 ? •6 2*6 2*5 2*5 2*5 2*2 2. ? 2 .5 2 .3 2.4 3 .0 3 .0 3*2 3.1 3 .1 5-85 6—85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-95 12-85 i —96 2-96 3-96 4-96 5-96 6-86 7-96 9—96 in it ia l 100*560 100*926 101*065P 3.2 101*334P 9-96 10 -8 6 1 1 - 06 HONTrt P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . nuHJis JANUARY 9* 1997 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF P E R S ONS 1978 1979 SEASONALLY 1980 1981 MI L L I ONS OF ADJ USTED 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE: 1985 SCALE P E R S ONS 1986 U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT O.IX. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt INDICATED. DECEMBER PRELIMINARY *DATA REV ISED FROM 1962 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT LOUIS RATE* ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11 . 11.0 10 . 10.0 9. 9 .0 8. 8.0 7. 7 .0 6. 6. 0 5. 5 .0 4. 4 .0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SO U R C E t PERC EN T LATEST «D ATA OF C I V I L I A N DATA P L O T T E D : R E V IS E D FROM LA BO R U .S . 1985 D EPARTM EN T 1986 OF LABO R PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LOW IS FO R C E D EC EM B ER 1 9 *2 3 CONSUMER P R IC 6 IN06X FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO _________________ COHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________ 1967*100 IN IT IA L lMONTH TERMINAL MONTH 5-85 6- 8 5 7-8 5 8- 8 5 9-85 10-85 11-85 12 -8 5 2-8 6 1-8 6 6-86 5-86 *-86 3—86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 n -8 6 321.8 6-85 3.0 7-85 2.6 2.3 8-85 2 .6 2 .* 2.6 322.4 323.1 323.7 9- 85 2.5 2 .* 2 .* 2 .3 10-85 2.9 2.9 3.1 3 .* *.5 324.9 11-85 3.6 3.7 * .1 *.5 5.7 6 .9 326.7 12-85 3.7 3.8 *. 1 *.5 5.3 5.7 * .5 1-86 3.8 3.9 4. I *.* 5.0 5. 1 *.3 * .1 2 -8 6 2.8 2 .8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2 .6 1 .2 -0 .* 327.9 329.0 327.7 - *.6 326.3 3-86 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 - 0 .* - 1.9 -*.8 - 5 .0 *-86 1.5 1.3 1 .2 1 .1 0 .9 0.3 -1.0 - 2.3 -4.3 -4.1 -3.3 5-86 1.6 I .* 1.3 1.2 l.l 0 .6 - 0 .* - I.* -2 .7 - 2 .1 -0.6 6 - 86 1.9 1 .8 1.7 1 .6 1.6 1.2 0 .* -0 .2 - l.l - 0 .2 1.5 3 .9 5.7 7- 86 1.8 1.7 1.6 I .5 I .* l.l 0 .* -0 .2 -0.8 - 0 .1 1 .2 2.7 3.0 0.4 8-86 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1 .2 0.6 0.1 - 0 .* 0 .3 1 .* 2.6 2.7 1.3 2 .2 9- 86 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0. 1 0.8 1.8 2.9 3.1 2 .2 3.2 10-86 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 1 .0 1.8 2.7 2 .8 2 .1 2.7 3.0 1.8 11-86 2.0 I .9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.2 0 .9 0.6 1 .2 2.0 2.8 2 .9 2 .4 2.9 3.1 2 .6 3 .3 I.* 1 .1 0.8 1 .* 2.1 2 .8 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.0 2 .7 3.1 1-8 6 2-8 6 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 12-86 ¿-85 1 5-85 2.0 LTi ao 2.0 h- 2.1 1.9 1.9 8-85 9- 8 5 1.7 10-85 11-85 12-85 325.4 326.0 2.2 327.5 327.6 328.2 329.3 4.1 329.8 330.7 2 .9 331.5 V—86 10—86 1 1 —tft> I N I H A L B U N IH PRfcPARfcU BY F-bUtRAL K LS tK V t BANK OF ST . LOUIS JANUARY 21, 1987 PRODUCER PRICE INOEXt FIN ISH ED GOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* _________________ COHPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________________________________ 1967 * 100 MONTH ___________5-85 6-85 7—85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 * -8 6 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86________________ 6-85 - 2 .* 293.6 8-85 - 1 .1 -0 . * -3 .6 9-85 -2 .4 - 2 .4 - 5 .0 _________ 10-85 0 .2 0.8 0 .1 2 .1 1 1 .2 11-85 1.5 2 .3 2 .2 4 .2 9 .8 8.5 12-85 2.4 3.2 3.3 5.1 9 .2 8 .2 ________ - 6 .4 2 9 3 .* 291.8 294.4 296.4 8 0 298.3 -0 6 296.1 1-8 6 1 .0 1 .5 1 .2 2 .2 4 .5 2 .3 2-86 -1 .3 - 1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .4 -0 .4 -3.1 -6 7 -13.3 -17 .8 291.3 3-86 -2.3 - 2 .3 -2 .9 - 2 .8 - 2 .2 —4 .7 -7 8 -12.5 -14.4 -1 0 .9 288.5 4-86 -2.7 -2 .7 -3.3 -3 .3 - 2 .8 -5 .0 -7 4 -1 0 .9 -11 .7 - 8 .5 -6 . 1 5-86 -1.9 - 1 .9 -2 .4 - 2 .2 - 1 .7 -3 .4 -5 3 -7 .7 -7 .5 - 3 .8 0 .0 6 .5 6-86 -1.7 - 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 1 .9 - 1 .4 - 2.8 -4 4 - 6 .3 - 5 .8 - 2 .6 0 .4 3 .8 - 8 .5 287.0 288.5 288.8 1.3 7-86 - 2 .1 -2 . 1 -2.5 -2 .4 - 2 .0 -3 .3 -4 7 -6 .4 -6 . 1 - 3 .5 - 1 .6 0 .0 -3.1 - 7 .2 8-86 -1.7 - 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 1 .8 - 1 .4 - 2 .6 -3 8 -5 .1 —4 .6 - 2 .3 - 0 .4 1 .0 -0 .7 - 1 .7 4 .3 9-86 -1.3 -1 .2 -1 .5 - 1 .3 - 0 .9 -1 .9 -2 9 - 4 .0 -3 .4 - 1 .2 0 .6 1.9 0.8 0 .7 4 .9 10-86 -0 .9 -0 .8 -1 .1 - 0 .9 -0 .5 -1 .4 -2 2 -3 .2 - 2 .6 - 0 .5 l.l 2 .3 1.5 1 .6 4 .7 4 .9 4 .2 11-8 6 -0.7 —0 .7 - 0 .9 -0 .7 - 0 .3 -1 .1 -1 9 - 2 .7 -2 .1 - 0 .2 1.3 2 .3 1.7 1 .8 4.1 4.1 3.4 2 .5 12-8 6 -0.7 -0 .6 -0 .8 —0 .6 -0 .2 - 1 .0 7 -2 .5 - 1 .9 - 0 .2 1 .1 2 .0 1.4 1.5 3.3 3.1 2 .2 1 .2 5-8? 5=15 7=S5— 5=55— *-d5 10-45 ll-d5 12-5?— T=SS 5^35 *=*5 287.0 288.0 289.3 5 .6 5=1«— 5=15— 7=35— 8=86 290.3 290.9 0 .0 290.9 9-86 10-86 11-86 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------I N I T IA L WOHTH------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R EV ISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING ________ "PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE TONR Uh M . LUU1S JANUARY 9t 1967____________________________ 4 RATIO PRICES SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1967-100 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SCALE 1967-100 1984 1985 1986 CONSUMER P R IC E IN DEX B EG IN N IN G JANUARY 197« 18 FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) . C P I- U DATA B EG IN N IN G 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQ U IVA LEN C E MEASURE FOR H O M EO IN ERSH IP CO STS. PERC ENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LA TEST DATA PLO T TED . IN D IC A TED . DECEMBER PR EPA RED RATIO PRODUCER SCALE 1967-100 R ESER V E BANK OF S T . PRICES DATA PLOTTEOt L O U IS RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERC ENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LATEST BY FED ERAL SCALE 1967-100 IN D IC A T E D . DECEMBER PREPA RED 5 BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST . L O U IS PRODUCER PR IC E INDEX* FIN IS H E D CONSUME* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* ____________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE__________________________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________________________________ 1967 - 100 MONTH 2-8 6 3-86 4—86 5-86 6—86 7-66 6—86 9-86 10 -8 6 11 -8 6 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-65 11-85 12-65 1-6 6 266.4 6-85 -0.9 7-85 5.2 1 1 .8 8-85 0.6 1.3 270.9 269.0 - 8 .1 9-85 -2.4 -2 .9 10-85 2 .0 2 .7 11-85 3.8 4.8 3.1 12-85 5.1 6 .1 5 .0 1-8 6 3.5 4 .2 2-86 0.0 1 .1 3-86 0.9 l.l -0 .1 266.4 -9.6 - 1 1 .0 21.7 270.8 7 .2 17.6 13.6 273.7 8 .6 16.0 13.3- 3.0 5 .3 9 .9 6 .2 -6 .7 274.9 -0 .4 1 .0 3.5 - 0.6 -4 .9 -12.7 -18.3 270.3 1 .1 3.3 —0 . 1 -3.3 -0 .1 4.1 276.5 13.0 2 .7 - 8 .1 - 6.6 270.7 1 .6 271.1 *-86 1.0 1 .2 0 .1 1 .2 3.0 0 .2 -2 .3 -5 .7 —5 .4 1 .6 1 .8 5-86 2.3 2 .6 1.7 2 .8 4 .7 2.5 0 .7 - 1 .6 -0 .2 6 .7 9.2 17.2 6-86 2 .1 2 .3 1.5 2 .5 4.1 2 .1 0.6 - 1 .4 -0 .3 4 .6 5 .9 6.0 -0 .4 274.7 274.6 7-86 3.5 3 .8 3.2 4 .3 6 .0 4 .4 3.3 1.9 3.4 6 .5 10 .2 13.1 11 .2 24.2 8-86 4.6 5 .0 4 .5 5 .6 7.2 5.9 5.0 4.1 5 .7 10.4 1 2 .2 15.0 14.2 22.4 279.6 20.6 284.0 283.1 9-86 4.0 4 .4 3.8 4*8 6 .3 5.0 4.1 3.2 4 .5 6.3 9 .4 1 1 .0 9.5 13.0 7.7 10-86 4.5 4 .8 4 .3 5 .3 6 .7 5.5 ^•8 4 .0 5 .3 6 .7 9.7 1 1 .1 9 .9 12 .6 9.0 3.6 1 1 .6 11-8 6 4.1 4 .4 4 .0 6 .1 5.0 4.3 3.5 4.6 7 .5 8.3 9.2 7.9 9 .7 6 .4 2 .0 5.0 -1 .3 12-86 3.7 3 .9 3.5 4 .3 5.4 4 .3 3.6 2.9 3.8 6 .3 6.6 7 .4 6 .1 7 .3 4.2 0.4 1 .8 -2 .7 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 1Z—85 1 —86 2-8 6 3—06 4-86 5-86 6-06 7-86 8-86 -3 .7 285.7 9-06 10-86 285.4 -4 .1 284.4 1 1 —Bt> «DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING W EFA RED B Y FEDERAL KfcStKVb BANR IH- S I . LUU1S _______ JANUARY 9» 1967 ____________ PRODUCER PR IC E INDEX* FIN IS H ED GOODS* EXCLUDING FOODS - SEASONALLY AOJUSTED* __________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE______________________________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________________________________ 1967 » 100 MONTH 7-86 8-66 9-86 10 -8 6 1 1-8 6 1-06 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-65 299.7 6-85 —3.5 7-85 —1.6 0 .4 299.8 299.3 8-85 —1.7 - 0 .6 - 2 .0 9-85 —2 . 6 - 2 .2 -3.5 -5.1 10-65 —0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 1 .6 1 .6 1.9 3 .2 7 .7 6.6 1.5 2 .4 2 .6 4.1 7 .3 6.6 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 298.0 300.1 8.6 301.7 6.6 303.3 - 1 .6 300.9 0 .7 0 .7 1.3 2 .9 1 .1 -3 .3 -3 .6 —4 .0 - 3 .9 - 6 .2 -9 .2 -1 3 .9 -16.1 -1 4 .7 -9.1 - 1 2 .6 -13.7 -1 1 .7 -9.1 296.1 2-86 3-86 4-86 -3.3 —3.6 - 3 .9 -4 .3 —4 .6 —4 .6 - 6 .6 - 3 .3 -3 .6 -3 .8 - 3 .7 - 5 .3 292.2 290.0 -8 .7 - 9 .7 - 9 .8 - 7 .1 - 3 .0 2 .9 6-86 -2.9 - 2 .8 -3.1 -3 .2 - 3 .0 - 4 .4 - 5 .9 - 7 .8 - 7 .6 - 4 .9 - 1 .4 2 .5 7-86 - 3.9 - 3 .9 —4 .3 - 4 .5 - 4 .5 -5 .8 - 7 .3 -9.1 -9.1 - 7 .3 -5 .3 - 4 .2 5-86 290.7 291.2 2 .1 -7 .6 -1 6 .3 286.9 6-66 -3.7 -3 .7 - 4 .0 -4 .2 -4.1 - 6.0 —6 .2 -4 .5 - 3 .4 - 5 .4 - 8 .9 - 0 .8 9-86 -3.0 -2 .9 -3 .2 -3 .2 -3 .1 -4.1 -5.1 - 6 .3 —6 .0 —4 .2 - 2 .3 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 - 3 .3 4 .0 9 .2 10-86 -2.7 - 2 .6 - 2 .8 -2 .9 - 2 .7 - 3 .6 —4 . 5 - 5 .6 - 5 .2 - 3 .5 - 1 .8 - 0 .6 - 1 .2 - 2 .0 3 .2 5.3 266.7 288.8 1.7 289.2 11-8 6 -2.4 - 2 .3 -2 .5 -2 .5 - 2 .3 -3.1 -3 .9 - 4 .8 - 4 .3 - 2 .7 - l.l 0 .0 -0 .5 - 1 .0 3 .3 4 .7 2 .5 3.4 12-8 6 - 2 .1 -2 . 1 - 2 .2 - 2 .2 - 2 .0 -2 .7 - 3 .4 - 4 .2 -3 .0 - 2 .3 - 0 .8 0 .3 - 0 .1 - 0 .5 3 .0 4 .0 2 .4 2 .7 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-65 10-85 11-85 12—05 1-8 6 2-8 6 3-86 4-66 5—66 6-66 f— 66 #-66 290.0 2 .1 290.5 9—86 10—86 1 1 -8 6 IN II1 A L HUNIH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R EV ISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED B f FfcUfcKAL RESERVE BANK Of S I . LUU1S JANUARY 9 , 1967 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE I9 7 7 - IO O 135 SEASONALLY SCALE 1 9 7 7-1 00 135 ADJ UST ED 130 130 +I.2X 125 125 v 126,6 120 1 20 I 15 1 10 +3. 71^ *0. 4Z +9.9X// /} 1 15 +/¿>. 4Zjj /v O - 105 1 10 -u '. Í 90 105 -S./inr“\J 100 95 / -U.firV N 7 9t rSjf1 * «5 ♦ ♦ 1978 \ \ $ X \ \ t t t 1979 1980 ^ * i. ÿ S L .... 1981 $ % I . 1982 $ $ $ $ f t 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 100 1984 $ 95 3 t 1985 90 1986 INDICATED. DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PROOUCTION C(WOUNDED ANNUAL RATES O f CHANGE 1977 * 100 IM IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 5-85 6-85 0 .0 7-85 - 1 .0 6-85 7-65 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-65 1-6 6 2 -6 6 3-86 4-86 5—66 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-8 6 123.6 123.4 124.4 8-85 2 .6 3 .9 1 0 .2 U7 2 .3 4.5 - 1 .0 10-65 0 .0 0 .0 0.6 - 3 .8 - 6.6 11-85 2 .0 2 .3 3.4 1.3 2.4 12.3 124.3 123.6 124.8 125.6 12-85 2 .6 3 .3 4 .3 2 .9 4*2 1 0 .1 8.0 1-8 6 3 .2 3 .6 4 .6 3.5 4 .7 8.7 6.9 5 .9 2-8 6 1 .6 2 .1 2 .7 1.5 1.9 4 .2 1 .6 -1 .4 126.2 125.3 - 8 .2 123.6 3-86 0 .0 0.0 0 .2 - l.l - l.l 0.0 -2 .9 - 6 .2 -1 1 .7 -15.1 4-86 1 .0 l.l 1.4 0 .4 0 .6 1 .6 - 0 .2 -2 .1 —4 .7 - 2.8 1 1 .2 5-86 0 .5 0 .5 0.8 - 0 .2 —0 .1 0.8 - 1.0 - 2 .7 - 4 .7 -3 .5 2 .9 - 4 .7 0 .0 0 .5 0.7 - 0 .2 -0 .1 0 .7 124.7 124.2 124.2 - 0.8 - 2 .2 -3 .6 - 2 .6 2 .0 -2 .4 - 0.6 3 .2 0 .6 3.4 7 .0 - 0 .3 2 .9 1 .0 2 .9 4 .4 1.9 -0 .5 2 .1 0 .4 1.7 2 .3 0 .0 124.9 0 .9 1 .0 1.2 0 .4 0 .6 1.4 0 .1 - 1 .0 8-86 1 .0 1 .0 1.3 0 .6 0 .7 1.5 0.3 -0 .6 - 1 .5 9-86 0.8 0 .8 1 .0 0 .4 0 .5 l.l 0 .1 - 0 .7 -1 .5 10—86 1 .0 1 .0 1 .2 0 .6 0 .7 1.4 0.4 - 0 .3 - 0 .9 0.0 2.4 1 .0 2 .1 2 .7 1.3 1 .0 3 .9 1 1 -8 6 1 .3 1.4 1 .6 1 .0 1 .2 1 .6 1 .0 0 .3 -0 .2 0 .7 2 .9 1 .6 2 .9 3 .5 2.7 2 .9 5 .4 6.9 12-6 6 1.5 1 .6 1 .6 1.3 1.5 2 .1 1.3 0.8 0 .3 1 .2 3.2 2 .3 3.3 3 .9 3.3 3 .6 5 .6 6.4 5-85 6—65 7-65 8-85 9-65 10-85 11-65 12-85 1-6 6 2-8 6 3—86 4-06 *-06 6—86 7-86 8-86 9-56 • o 7-86 1 0 .4 7-86 - 1 .9 9-85 6—86 6-86 IN IT IA L 125.1 - 1 .9 124.9 125.3 126.OP 5 .9 126.6P T.r-36 HWtTH P R E L IM IN A R Y H W A f tC B BV FEPCftAL RESERVE BANK. OF S T. JANUARY 16» 1967 7 LO U IS P E R S O NA L RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF D OL L A R S TOTALS INCOME AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJ USTED OF SCALE D OL L A R S 2. 2 2. 2.0 . 1 .8 I 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE AKMUAl RATES Of CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1984 U .S . 1985 1986 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D ICATED . DECEMBER PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS PERSONAL INCOME CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATE'S " IN IT IA L MONTH MONTH 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10 -8 6 11 -8 6 3 304.9 6-85 6 .2 7-85 5 .0 3.9 2 .9 1.9 3 315.4 3 320.5 8-85 3.9 9-85 4 .2 3 .6 3.4 5.0 10-85 5.2 4 .9 5.3 7.0 9.1 11-85 5.2 5.0 5.2 6.4 7.1 5.1 12-85 6.8 7 .0 7.6 9.1 10.5 1 1 .2 17.5 1-8 6 5.9 5.9 6.2 7.1 7.7 7.2 8.3 - 0 .2 2-86 6.0 6.0 6 .3 7 .0 7.5 7.0 7.7 3.1 6.5 3 333.9 3 358.3 3 372.3 3 418.0 3 417.4 3 435.3 3-86 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.5 6.8 6.3 6.6 3.2 5 .0 3.5 4-86 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 8.0 7.8 8.3 6 .2 8.4 9 .3 15.5 5-86 5.9 5 .8 6.0 6.5 6 .7 6.4 6.6 4 .5 5.7 5.5 6 .5 - 1 .9 6-86 5.4 5.4 5.5 5*9 6.0 5.6 5.6 3 .8 4 .6 4.1 4 .3 - 0 .8 3 445.1 3 486.8 3 481.3 0 .2 3 481.9 7-86 5.3 5.2 5.3 5 .6 5.7 5.3 5.3 3.7 4 .3 3.9 4 .0 0 .5 1 .6 3.1 8-86 5. 1 5 .0 5. 1 5 .3 5.4 5.0 5 .0 3.5 4.1 3.7 3 .7 1 .0 1.9 2 .8 2.5 9-86 5.0 4 .9 5.0 5.2 5.2 4 .9 4.8 3.5 4 .0 3.7 3.7 1.5 2 .3 3 .0 3.0 3 490.8 3 497.9 3 507.9 3 .5 10-86 4.9 4 .8 4 .9 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 3 .5 4 .0 3 .7 3 .7 1 .8 2 .6 3.2 3 .2 3.6 3.8 11-8 6 4 .8 4 .7 4 .7 4 .9 4 .9 4 .6 4 .6 3 .5 3 .8 3 .6 3.6 2 .0 2 .6 3.1 3.1 3 .3 3 .2 12-86 5.0 5.0 5.0 5 .2 5.3 5 .0 5.0 4 .0 4.4 4 .2 4 .3 2 .9 3 .6 4 .2 4 .5 5 .0 5.5 5-85 6-85 7-8 5 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2-8 6 3-86 4—86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 3 518.8 3 526.6 2 .7 6 .3 10 .0 3 5 5 4 . 8P 10 -8 6 n -6 6 PRE L I MI NAR Y W ÉA À A É fl Ô V n r î M f t A L 'ftE K U V E BARK OF S T . L O U IS JANUARY 23» 1987____________ 8 _____ RETAIL ratio SALES scale BILLIONS ratio OF D OL L A R S 1978 1979 SEASONALLY 1980 1981 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: NOVEMBER, U.S. 1985 OF scale D OL L A R S 1986 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. DECEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R ET A IL SALES CQHPQUNOEP ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN IT IA L MONTH 6-85 -5 .4 7-85 3.4 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 CD 5—85 0 1 TERMINAL MONT hi 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-66 9-86 10 -8 6 1 1-8 6 8-86 M ILLIONS OF 00 l I A r s 113,468 114,620 12.9 8-85 8 .5 16.2 19.7 9—85 12.3 19.0 2 2 .1 10-85 2 .0 4 .0 11-85 2 .4 12-85 4 .2 1-8 6 116,349 24.6 118,499 1 .1 - 7 .0 -3 0 .6 114,947 4 .0 1.9 -3 .4 -1 4 .9 5 .9 4 .5 1 .0 - 5 .8 9 .7 15.4 4 .4 5 .9 4 .8 2 .1 - 2 .9 8 .6 10 .8 2-8 6 3 .8 5 .0 3 .9 1.5 - 2 .6 6.0 6.6 2 .4 -1 .5 3-86 2 .8 3 .8 2.7 0 .5 - 3 .0 3.7 3.5 - 0 .2 -3 .4 - 5 .2 4-86 3 .6 4 .5 3 .6 1 .8 -1 .1 4 .9 5.0 2 .5 1.3 2 .7 1 1 .1 5-86 4.1 5 .0 4.3 2 .7 0 .2 5 .6 5.8 4 .0 3 .4 5.1 10.7 1 0 .2 6-86 4 .0 4 .8 4.1 2.7 0 .5 5.3 5.4 3 .8 3 .3 4 .6 8 .0 6 .5 115,354 4 .3 116,743 117,349 6 .4 117,200 116,684 117,715 118,675 118,960 2 .9 7-86 4 .4 5 .1 4 .5 3 .2 1.3 5.7 5.8 4 .5 4 .2 5 .4 8 .2 7 .3 5.8 8 .9 8-86 5 .3 6 .1 5 .5 4 .4 2 .8 6 .9 7.2 6 .2 6 .2 7 .5 1 0 .2 10 .0 10 .0 13.6 18.6 9-86 9 .3 10.3 10 .2 9 .5 8 .3 1 2 .8 13.6 13.4 14.4 16.8 2 1 .0 23 .0 26.4 35.4 51.1 119,804 121,523 92.3 10-86 V.7 5 .4 4 .9 3 .9 2 .5 5 .8 6.0 5 .1 4 .9 5 .8 7 .4 6 .8 6 .1 7 .0 6.3 11-8 6 4 .0 4 .6 4.1 3.1 1 .8 4 .8 4 .8 3 .9 3.7 4 .3 5 .5 4 .7 3.8 4 .0 2 .9 - 1 .9 12-8 6 6 .7 7 .4 7.1 6 .3 5.2 8.4 8.7 8 .1 8.3 9 .3 1 1 .1 ll.l 1 1 .2 1 2 .6 13.4 1 2 .1 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-96 7-96 8-86 128,331 0 .7 -4 7 .3 o • 1 0 -6 .3 121,655 120,937P -6 .9 2 4 .9 6 7 .6 126,2556 TO-44 11-86 1 M IT T A L W W T H p- p r e l i m i n a r y E— ESTIMATED ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ M E# A ftE D BY FE& ERA T R ES E R V E BANK W S I . L O U IS ___________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________ JANUARY 14* 1987__________________________________________ 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION* BU SIN ESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE TERMINAL________________________ _______________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_____________ _____________________________________________________1977»1QQ QUARTER 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 4-81 1-64 2-64 3-84 4-64 1-65 2-65 3-65 4-65 1 —66 2- B 6 151.3 1-82 10.4 2-82 8.6 6.8 8 .2 7.1 4-82 7.2 6 .2 5.9 4 .4 1-83 6.6 5 .7 5 .3 4 .3 4. 1 2-63 5.9 5.0 4 .6 3.7 3.3 2.5 3-83 5.3 4 .4 4 .0 3.1 2 .7 2 .0 3-82 153.6 156.6 7 .5 156.3 159.9 160.9 161.5 1.5 4-83 5.3 4 .6 4 .2 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.4 5.3 1-84 5.3 4.7 4 .4 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.5 163.6 5.7 165.9 167.1 2-84 5. 4 .5 4 .2 3 .8 3.7 3.6 3.9 4 .6 4.3 2.9 3-84 5.0 4 .5 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 4 .0 4 .6 4.4 3 .6 4 .6 4-84 4 .9 4 .5 4.2 3.9 3 .8 3.6 4.0 4 .5 4.3 3 .6 4 .2 1 169.0 3*6 170.6 172.3 1-85 4 .9 4.4 4.2 3 .9 3 .8 3.6 4.0 4 .4 4.2 3 .9 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 2-85 4 .9 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4.0 4.1 4 .5 4 .4 4.1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 5.2 3-85 4 .9 4 .5 4.3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4 •6 4 .6 4 .4 174.5 176.4 4-85 4 .8 4.4 4*3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.1 4 .3 4.2 4 .3 4 .4 4.1 3.7 1-8 6 4 .7 4 .3 4. 1 3 .9 3.9 3.9 4 .0 4 .2 4.1 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .5 3*1 2.5 2-86 4 .6 4.2 4.1 3 .8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3*6 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3.7 3.4 3.0 2 .7 2 .9 3 .3 3.0 2 .6 2 .9 2 .9 2-65 3-85 4-85 1 —i o 2 -6 6 3-86 4 .5 4 .2 4 .0 3 .8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4 .0 3.9 3# 7 3.6 3 .7 3.7 3 .6 4-8 1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2- è ì 3-83 4—83 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 176.0 179.1 160.4 161.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY F E D E R A in tE3 FR Y F BAJPC OF 3 T . LO U IS DECEMBER 2* 1966 __________________________ OUTPUT PER HOUR Of ALL PERSONS* BUSIN ESS SECTOR _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1977-100 QUARTER 2 -6 6 1-65 2-65 3-05 4-65 1-8 6 3-83 4-83 1-83 2-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 4-84 4-8 i 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-82 99.6 -0 .4 10 0 .2 2-82 0.6 1 .6 3-82 0.5 1.0 0.4 4-82 1 .1 1 .6 1 .6 100.3 2 .8 1 0 1.0 101.9 1-83 1 .6 2 .1 2.3 3.2 2-83 2.4 3.0 3 .3 4 .3 5 .0 6.4 3-83 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2.7 2 .6 2 .2 -1 .9 2.5 0.6 3.1 4-83 1.9 2.3 2.4 2 .8 3 .6 2 .8 103.5 103.0 103.6 1-84 2 .2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.9 1.8 3.7 4.3 2-84 2 .2 2 .5 2.7 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .0 3.4 3.5 2.7 3-84 2 .0 2 .2 2.3 2 .6 1 .1 - 0 .4 4-84 1 .8 2 .0 2 .1 1-85 1 .8 1.9 2 .0 2.3 1.5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2.0 1.3 1.9 1 .6 0.6 - 0 .2 0 .0 2 .1 2 .0 1 .8 1 .2 1.7 1.5 0.6 0 .1 0.4 0 .6 2 .2 2 .1 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 1 .1 1 .1 1.7 • 2 .0 2 .5 00 1 .8 105.6 2 .2 ° 2-85 2 .0 104.9 105.5 105.5 105.7 106.4 2 .7 1.9 2 .1 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .6 2 .1 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 2 .3 3.1 3.4 1 .6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1 .8 1 .6 l.l 1.5 1 .2 0.8 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 0 .9 0 .0 - 3 .3 1-8 6 1.7 1 .8 1 .0 1.9 1 .9 1.7 1.5 1 .1 0.9 1 .1 1.4 1.5 l.l 0.0 3 .4 2-8 6 1 .6 1.7 1.7 1 .6 1 .8 1.6 1 .2 1.5 1.4 1 .1 0.8 1 .0 1 .2 1.3 0 .9 0 .1 1.9 0 .4 107.4 3-86 1.5 1 .6 1 .6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1 .1 1 .4 1 .2 0 .9 0.8 0 .9 1 .0 1 .1 0.0 0 .1 1.3 0 .2 o • o 107.3 3-85 4-85 107.4 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-63 3-63 4-63 1-84 2-84 3-64 4-84 1-65 2-05 3-05 4-65 1 -T 6 ¿- É6 1.3 1 .6 106.4 107.3 PREPAREÒ BY TÉ0 ÉR A Í" M S R ÖF S T . LfHTIT DECEMBER 2* 1966_______________________________________ 10 P R O D U C T IV IT Y , COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE RATIO 19 7 7 -1 0 0 1978 se a so n a lly 1979 1980 1981 SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOWtCE. U .S . DEPARTMENT Of LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE FOR PER 100$ I NO I CATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 5*D QUAHTEJI PREPARED |Y FEDERAL REtCRVt BANK Of ST. LON IS (M IT LABOR COSTS» BUSIN ESS SECTOR COHPOUHOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 1-82 10*4 2-82 7.9 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 * «1 • M 4-81 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2 -8 6 151.5 153.5 5 .4 156.2 3-82 7.6 6 .3 7.2 4-8 2 6. 1 4 .7 4 .3 1.5 1-83 4.8 3.5 2.9 0 .8 0 .0 156.8 156.8 155.5 2-83 3 .4 2 .1 1.3 - 0 .6 - 1 .7 - 3 .3 3-83 3.4 2.3 1.7 0 .4 0 .0 0.0 3.4 4-83 3.3 2.3 1 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0.8 2 .8 2 .3 156.8 157.7 158.2 1-84 3. 1 2 .2 1.7 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 2.3 1 .8 1.3 2-84 2.8 2 .0 1 .6 0.8 0 .6 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0 .3 3-84 3 .0 2 .3 1.9 1.3 1 .2 1.4 2.4 2 .2 2 .1 2 .5 4 .9 4-84 3 .0 2.4 2. 1 1.5 1*6 1 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2.5 3.0 4.3 1-85 3.1 2 .5 2 .2 1.7 1 .6 2 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2.7 3.1 4.1 3.7 3.5 2-85 3.0 2 .5 2 .2 1 .8 1 .8 2 .0 2.7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .9 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 2 .2 2 .2 1 .6 158.3 160.2 161.7 3 .8 163.1 164*0 1 .0 3-85 2 .9 2 .4 2 .1 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.5 2 .4 2.4 2.6 3.1 2 .6 4-85 3.1 2 .7 2.5 2 .1 2 .2 2.4 3.0 2 .9 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3 .4 4.1 7.2 1-8 6 2 .9 2 .5 2.3 1.9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2.7 3.1 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 3.2 - 0 .7 2-8 6 2.9 2 .5 2.3 2 .0 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2.7 3.0 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .9 0 .8 2 .4 3-66 2 .9 2 .5 2.3 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2.7 3.0 2.7 2 .6 2 .4 2 .5 2 .9 1.4 2 .5 2 .6 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-04 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 164.4 167.3 167.0 168.0 169.1 IN IT IA L QUARTfc* PfcÉfAkÉù ôV « 0 ERAL RÉJÉAVÉ BAM OF ST. LCKJI5T OECEHBER 2» 1986_______________________________________ 11 GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____ rnnpn«innFr> í m m iiíi p a t p ^ h f th a m g p _________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL----------------------------------------------------------TNT TI AL QUARTER---------------------------------------------- ---------- DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES \-ftA 4-A4 1 -ÄS ■2-fl5 3-85 A-A5 1-86 2-86 1-A6 l^AA ?,A A A-A* i-fl^ -±JZñ? ?-A ? ^-A? A-A7 6.2 3-82 4 .3 2 .5 4-82 4 .3 3*4 4 .2 3.212*5 1-83 4 .9 4*5 5 .5 6 .8 3.265*8 2-83 6 .5 6 .6 8.0 9 .9 13.0 3-83 7.0 7.1 a .3 9 .7 11.2 9 .4 4-83 7 *_7 8.D 9.1 10.4 11*6 10.9 3.1 5 9.5 3.179*4 3.367*4 3.443*9 3.545*8 12*4 1-84 8*6 9 .0 10.1 11*3 12.4 12.2 13.6 14*9 2-84 fl.6 8 .9 9 .8 10.7 11.5 1 1.2 1 1.8 1 1.5 8-2 3-84 _8^3_. 8.5 9.3 1 0 .I 10.6 10.1 10*3 9.7 7« I 8*5 3.670*9 3.743*8 _ 6.1.. 3.799*7 6.4 5.5 4*5 3.845*6 6*5 5 .9 4-84 8 .0 . 0.2 8.8 9 .4 9 .8 9.3 9.2 1-85 7.9 8.1 8.6 9-1 9*4 8.9 8.8 5 .9 6-8 2-85 7.7 7 .9 8.4 8 .8 9 .0 8.5 8 .4 7*7 6.4 5.9 5.8 6 .3 5*8 3-85 7.7 7*8 8.2 8.6 8.8 8.3 8.2 7 .6 6.4 6 .1 6 .1 6 .5 6.3 4-85 7*5 7*6 8*0 8*4 8*5 8*1 7*9 7*4 6*3 6*0 6*0 6*3 6 .1 6*3 5*8 1-8 6 7.5 7 .5 7 .9 8 .2 8*3 7*9 7*7 7*2 6*3 6*1 6.0 6*3 6*1 6*2 6*0 6*2 2-86 7.2 7 .2 7.5 7.8 7 .9 7*4 7.3 6*8 5*9 5 .6 5.5 5*6 5*4 5*3 4*8 4*3 3.909*3 3.965*0 6*8 • o o .. 2-82 4.087*7 4.149*2 2*6 4.175*6 4.240*7 3-86 7.1 7.2 7.5 7 .7 7 .7 7.4 7.2 6.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5 .7 5 .6 5.5 5*2 5.0 4*5 6*4 4-9$ 6*9 6*9 7.2 7*4 7*4 7.0 6*8 6*4 5.6 5*4 5*3 5*4 5*1 5*0 4*7 4*4 3*8 4*5 2*6 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 3-86 4 .2 6 8 .4 P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JiN U A R Y ¿ I t l ? f l 7__________________________________________ GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS ______________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________ r r m p r m N D F n annual ra te s of c h a h lf _____________________________________ _________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAI___________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTE«_________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER ?- A A AA A—A A 1-B5 ? - a s 1 ? - A? A-A^ 1-AA 3-85 4-85 1-8 6 2 -8 6 3-86 1-A? A-A? 1 —A 1 7-A1 2-82 3 .1 7 9.9 1 .2 3-82 -1 .0 - 3 .2 4-82 -0 .5 -1 .3 3 .1 5 4.5 3.159*3 0.6 3.186*6 1-83 0 .5 0 .3 2 .0 3.5 2-83 2 .2 2*5 4*4 6*4 9*3 3-83 2 .8 3 .2 4 .8 6*3 7-7 4-83 3 .5 3 .8 5 .3 6 .5 7 .5 6.7 7.3 1-84 4 .2 4 .7 6.0 7 .2 8.1 7.7 8.5 9.8 2-84 4 .3 4 .7 5 .9 6.8 7 .5 7 .0 7.4 7*4 3.258*3 6.0 3.306*4 3.365*1 3,444*7 5.0 3.487*1 3.507*4 3-84 4*1 4*5 5*4 6 .2 6 .6 6*1 6*1 5*7 3*7 2.3 4-84 3 .9 4*2 5.0 5*6 5*9 5 .3 5.1 4*6 2.9 1.9 1.5 1-85 3 .8 4.1 4 .8 5 .3 5 .5 5.0 4.8 4 .3 3.0 2 .3 2.3 3.1 2-85 3 .7 3 .9 4 .6 5 .0 5.1 4 .6 4.4 4 .0 2.8 2 .3 2.3 2 .7 2 .3 3-85 3 .7 3 .9 4.5 4 .9 5 .0 4*6 4.4 4 .0 3.1 2 .7 2 .7 3 .2 3 .2 4 .1 4-85 3*6 3*8 4*3 4 .7 4*8 4*3 4*1 3.8 2*9 _ 2*6 2 .6 2*9 2*8 3*1 2*1 1-8 6 3 .6 3.8 4 .3 4 .6 4*7 4*3 4.1 3.8 3.0 2 .7 2 .8 3.1 3.1 3 .3 2.9 3.8 3.520*4 3.547*0 3.567*6 3*603*8 3.622*3 3,655*9 3 .6 4*1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2*6 2 .1 2*2 0*6 3.4 3 .5 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 3.9 3.7 3.4 2.7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2.3 2.4 1.7 2 .5 2*2 2—85 3-85 4-86 3 .4 3.8 4 .0 4.1 3.7 3.5 3 .2 2.7 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 3,686*4 2*2 1*7 2 .3 1.7 1-8 6 2-8 6 3-86 1 3.3 2 .5 3 ,6 6 1.4 2 .8 ** <90 3.4 3-86 * 2-8 6 3.7 0 2.4 P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y P R E P A R E D BY FED ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T * L O U IS JAM U AtV ? ? . 1«AT__________________________________________ 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATIO SCALE QUARTERLY TOTALS T R I L L I ONS OF DOLLARS SE ASONALLY AT ANNUAL RA TES ADJUS TED T R I L L I ON S RATIO SCALE OF DOLLARS 4. 6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2. 8 4. 1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3. 1 3.0 2.9 2. 8 2.7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS 13 GE NERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 SCALE 198 2-1 00 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L IC IT PRIC E DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT _______________ r n M P r u m n F O awhhai IN IT IA » b a t f s o f ch ah c f _________________ 10Q Q IIA R T F R QUARTER 1-ft?___7-fl? A-ft?___1 -fli__ _______ 3-fl3__ 4-B3___1-flt__ ?-fl*__________ 4-84___l- fl? __ Z r A S ___3-Q5__ 4-fl5___L~Q6__ _______ 3~Qfr ______________________________________________________________________________________ -Z-QZ 99,4 5.8 4 .7 101*7 3 .6 J u A ____4^2____ _______ 3*2 _ i* 2 ____i t i 104.2 3—83 4 .0 3 .8 3 .4 3*3 3 .3 4-83 4.1 4 .0 3 .6 3 .6 3*8 4*1 4.7 1-84 4.2 4.1 3.8 3*8 4*0 4.3 4 .7 4 .6 Z—84 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 4.0 4*1 3.8 3 .0 3-84 4 .0 3*9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3*2 3.5 105.4 106.6 107.4 108.3 3*4 109.2 4-84 3.9 3 .8 3*6 3*6 3*7 3.8 3*8 3*6 3*3 3*4 3*4 1-85 3.9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3*7 3.8 3.8 3 .6 3 .4 3 .5 3.5 3 .7 2-85 3.9 3 .8 3 .6 3*6 3*6 3*7 3.7 3*6 3*4 3*4 3*5 3*5 3*3 3-85 3.8 3 .7 3.5 3*5 3*5 3*6 3*6 3 .4 3*2 3*3 3*2 3*2 2*9 2*5 4-85 3.8 3*7 3*5 3.5 3*5 3*6 3*6 3*5 3*3 3*3 3*3 3*3 3 .2 3.1 3 .6 1 -8 6 3.7 3 .6 3.4 3 .4 3*5 3*5 3*5 3*3 3*2 3*2 3*2 3*1 3*0 2*9 3.1 2.5 1 1 0 .2 1 1 1 .1 1 1 1 .8 1 1 2 .8 113.5 114.0 2 -8 6 3.6 3*5 3*3 3 .3 3 .3 3.3 3.3 3*2 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2*7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .1 1 .8 3—86» 3.6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .6 2 .7 3.6 4-86 3.4 3 .4 3*2 3*2 3 .2 3.2 3.2 3*0 2 .9 2*9 2*8 2 .8 2*6 2*5 2*5 2*2 2 .1 2 .3 1 .0 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 i —84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-8 6 2-86 3-86 115*0 115.3P IN IT IA L QUARTER P - P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPAREO BY FEOERAL R ESERVE BANK OF S T * LO UIS J â M l É â f ? ? g 1 M T __________________________________ ________ 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT OOLLARS ----------- CQHPOMNfifn ANMIU1 1ATFS Of fHANfcF ----------IN IT IA I QUARTER -L k R2 -- Z=h2-- 1=£2— k.-ft? ___l-fl.3— 2=A3__________ i-ft^ i-ma B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS_ ANNUAL RATES ftliA ITFt- ?- a a ^-wa__ — L=Û5-------?-fl^__ 3 ^ 5 __ i=û5-- L=Aû__ ¿=Ä£__ 3~fl6 2*023*8 2 » 065 »6 i- a z -Ì--.Q2 _a- J____ ______ 1Q.3 ¿ t UL-Q- 7 ,5____ 3^2____ 6 .0 2 ,1 4 6 ,6 5-7 --- 1 J*U 2,262*8 3-83 8.7 9 .3 9 .5 9 .3 1 1 .1 9.3 *-83 8 .9 9 .4 9 .6 9 .4 10.6 9 .5 9 .7 2 ,3 1 5 .8 1-84 8.8 9 .3 9.4 9 .2 10.1 9 .2 9.1 2 ,3 6 3 .8 2 ,4 1 6.1 2-84 8 .9 9 .3 9 .4 9 .2 9 .9 9.2 9.1 8.8 9 .1 3-84 8*5 8*8 8*8 8*6 9*1 8*3 8*1 7*5 7.0 5 ,0 4-84 8*3 8*6 8*6 8 ** 8*8 8*1 7*9 7*4 7*0 6*0 7 .0 1-85 8 .2 8 .5 8*5 8 .3 8*6 8*0 7*8 7*4 7*1 6 .4 7*1 2-85 8 ,2 8*4 8*4 8*2 8*4 7*9 7*7 7*4 7*1 6,6 7*2 7*3 7*3 3-85 8*2 8*4 8.3 8 .2 8*4 7.9 7*7 7*5 7*3 6*9 7*4 7 .6 7 .7 8 .2 4-85 8*0 8*2 8*2 8*0 8*2 7.8 7.6 7*3 7 *? 6.8 7*2 7 .3 7.3 7 .3 1-8 6 7.8 8.0 7 .9 7.7 7 .9 7.5 7 .3 7 .0 6.8 6.5 6.8 6 .7 6.6 6 .4 5.5 4 .6 2-8 6 7*7 7*8 7*7 7*6 7 .7 7 .3 7*1 6*8 6*6 6*3 6*5 6 .5 6 .3 6 .1 5 .4 4 .9 5 .2 7*0 7*0 6*9 6*6 6 .6 7*7 10.3 5.7 6 .1 6 ,5 2 .9 1-86 2-86 3-86 2 ,4 4 5 .6 2 ,4 8 7 .2 2,530*9 7*2 2 ,5 7 6 .0 2,6 2 7.1 2 ,6 6 7 .9 7.8 7*9 7*9 7*7 7*9 7*5 7*4 7*1 7*0 6*8 4-86 7*5 7 .7 7.6 7 .* 7 .5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6,4 6 .5 6 .5 6 .4 6 .2 5 .8 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3—85 1 3-86 7 .0 CD V* 6 .4 2 ,6 9 7 .9 2 ,7 3 2 .0 2 ,7 9 9 .8 2 ,8 1 9 .9P IN IT IA L QUARTER PR EL I MI NARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS J à H U à R Y ¿ ¿ « 1 ÎQ 7 ____________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS _______________ r n M P f M iM n F f i a m h iia i r a t fs o f ch an cf ________________ B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER IM IT f A l -DOLLARS Q IIA R T F g ANNUAL RATES 1,-fL ? ____ ? - f t ? ____\ - f t ? ___ 4 - « ? _________________________1 =Ä3___ fc - a a ____1 - ftA ___ __________ \ - a 4 ___ à = A A ____l - a 5 ____2 - a * I____3 = £ 5 ___ 4 .- fl5 ____1 - Q 6 ___ 2 r f l 6 ___ 3 - 8 6 2 ,0 4 1 ,0 2* Q____¿j, I 2*094*2 1-83 3.1 3.5 4 .2 3 .0 2-83 4.1 4 .6 5.4 5.5 8 .0 2,1 3 5.1 Ì-8 3 4 .3 4 .8 5.4 5 .4 6 .7 2,163*0 4-83 4 .4 4 .9 5 .4 5 .4 6 .3 5.5 1-84 4 .4 4 .8 5.2 2-84 4 .6 4 .9 S .3 2 ,1 9 1 .9 2 t 2 l3 .8 5 .7 4.8 5 .3 5.8 5.2 6.0 4*8 4 .7 5 .0 4 .2 3 .6 1.3 4*5 4 .8 _ 4*0 3*5 2*3 3*3 4 .6 3 .9 3 .5 2 .7 3.5 3 .7 4*3 4*5 3 .9 3 .5 2*9 3*5 3*6 3*5 2,246*3 2 ,2 5 3 .3 3-84 4*2 4*5 4-84 4*2 4 .4 4 .6 1-85 4.1 4 .3 4 .5 2-85 4 .1 4 .2 4*4 3-85 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4.1 3 .a 3 .4 3 .9 4*1 4.4 5*3 4-85 4*0 4*1 4*3 4*2 4*3 3*8 3*5 3*1 3*5 3 .5 3.5 3 .5 1.7 3*5 3.5 3.5 3 .5 2 .6 3 .6 2 ,2 7 1 .7 2 ,2 9 2 .3 2 ,3 1 1 .9 2 ,3 4 2 .0 2 ,3 5 1 .7 2 ,3 7 2 .7 4*2 4*2 4*2 3.8 3*5 3.2 4 ,2 4*4 4*3 4*4 4 .0 3*8 3*5 3*9 4*0 4*0 4*2 3 .8 4*9 6 .2 3-86 4*2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4.1 3 .9 4*2 4 .4 4 .5 4*7 4 .5 5.5 6 .4 4*0 4*1 4*2 4*1 4*2 3.8 3 .8 3 .5 4 .0 4.1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4—82 1-83 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-8 6 4-86 3.8 2 3-83 4 3*7 3*5 3*7 3 .7 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 2 ,4 0 8 .4 6*7 2 ,4 4 8 .0 2 ,4 4 5 .IP 2-86 tr> 4*1 0 1 4*0 4*1 ff> 1-86 2-86 3-86 I NI T I AL QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS J A W IA ftT ¿ ¿ t l î f t l _____________________________ ______________ 15 CROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT OOLLARS ____________CONPOUNQpn A N N U A L RATES Of CHANCE_____________ TERMINAI____ ____________________________________ ___________________ QUARTER 1-8? 2-82 I —83 2—A3 3-83 4-83 3-8 2 4 —ft? 2-82 7 .4 3-82 4-82 B IL L IO N S OF IN IT IA L QUARTER_____________________________ _________________ _________________ OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES ft4 4-Û4 1-85 2-85 3-95 4—85 1-86 2-86 3-86 1-84 2-84 467*8 - 3 .2 -1 2 .7 452*2 --14.2 -23 .3 -32 .7 1-83 -6t8_ - l l * i 409*6 428*3 -10*3 19.6 2-83 .3 *9 . 2*9 8*7 38*1 59*5 3-83 8 .6 8.8 14.9 37.4 47 .2 35.9 481*3 519*7 4-83 14*2 15*4 22*0 41*6 49*8 45*1 54*9 1-84 J.9 * 8 21.7 28*6 46*4 54.0 52*2 61*0 67.4 2-84 1 7 .3 18.6 23.8 37*1 4 0 .9 36.6 36.8 28.6 579*8 659*5 -1.2 657*5 16.3 17.3 21.8 32*5 34*8 w o ♦ 670.3 3-84 29*0 21*3 3*3 8*0 4-84 14*1 14.8 18*4 27*0 28 *2 23.6 21*2 14*0 0*3 1*1 -5*4 1-85 12.3 12.7 15.7 22 .8 2 3 .2 18.8 16.2 9.7 -1.3 - 1 .4 - 5 .8 -6 .2 2-85 12*2 12*6 15.2 21*5 21*8 17.7 15.3 9*8 0*9 1.5 - 0 .6 1*8 10*5 3-85 10*8 11*0 13.3 18*8 18*7 14.9 12*5 7.4 -0*2 0 .0 -1*9 -0*7 2*1 - 5 .7 4-85 10*6 10*8 12.8 17*8 17*6 14.1 U .9 7.5 0*9 1*2 -0*1 1*3 3*9 0*7 7*6 18*3 15.1 13*2 9*3 3.6 4 .3 3.7 5*7 8*9 8*3 16*1 661*1 650*6 667*1 657*4 669*5 708*3 1-86 11*4 11*7 13.7 18*4 25*3 2-86 9*9 10*1 11*8 15*9 15*7 12*6 10*7 7*0 1*9 2*2 1*4 2*6 4*5 3*0 6*1 5.4 -11*3 3-86 9 .0 9 .0 10.6 14.3 13.9 1 1.0 9.1 5.7 1.0 1.2 0 .4 1.3 2 .6 1.0 2.8 1.3 - 9 .0 -6*5 4-86 8.4 8*5 9 .9 13.3 12.9 10*1_ 8.4 5.2 0.8 1.0 0 .3 1*0 2*1 0*7 2*1 0*7 -6*3 -3*7 -0*8 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 687*3 675.8 674.5P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM INARY PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS JANUARY ZZ% 19Q7______________________________________ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 OOLLARS _______________ r .flM P fH iN D F D TFRMINA1 QUARTER ANNUAL IN IT IA L RA TFS OF C H A N G E _______________ B IL L IO N S OF POLLARS ANNUAL RATES Q UART PR I -02.___z-h2 __________ 4.-A2___L-aa__ 2-fl3___3-63__ 4~B3__________ 2-B4___3-Q4__ 4-fl4___L~S5___2-fl5___3~fl5__ 4~fl5__________ ¿"8 6 __ 2 .2 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3-82 467.5 448.6 -6.6- rI5 _. Z 4-82___- I S . 6 -2 3 .5 - 3 1 .Q - 8 .0 -11*4__ ~9t 4___19*1 _2rft3 ____ L U S ___ 4 I t ? ___ 6 9 » 9 8« 5____ 2x1___L U Û ___39.5 4-83 524.8 51« Q 35. Q 15.1 22.3 41.2 4 9 .4 40.5 46.3 18.3 20.6 28.0 44*8 52*0 46*0 53*1 60*1 2-84 16.1 17*9 2 3.6 36*2 39*9 33*4 32.9 26*7 649.3 649.7 0.2 650.9 15.0 16*5 21*2 31*4 33*5 27*4 25*6 19*3 3*0 4-84 13.0 14*1 17*9 26*1 27*1 21*2 10*7 12*6 0*1 0*1 -5*4 1-85 1 1 .2_ 12.0 15.1 2 1 .9 22.2 16.7 13.9 8*4 -1 .7 - 2 .4 - 6 .2 -7*0 2-85 l l * 2 _ 11*9 INI 1*0 14. 5 20*9 o • 3-84 • 1-84 OD 1-83 16*0 13*6 8*9 0.8 0 .9 -0*7 3-05 9*8 10*3 12*8 18*0 17*8 13*2 10*8 6*4 -0*6 -0*7 -2*3 4-85 9*5 10*0 12*3 16*9 16*7 12*5 10*2 6*4 0*3 0*4 -0*7 649.9 630.2 655.6 11*4 643.0 1*0 -7*0 0*5 3*1 -0*7 6*0 653.2 604.0 1-86 10*2 10*7 12*8 17*2 17*0 13*2 11*2 7*8 2*6 3*0 2*5 4*2 7*2 5*0 12.9 2-86 0*0 9*2 11*1 14*9 14*6 10*9 9*0 5*8 1*0 1*1 0*5 1*5 3*3 1.4 4*4 3-86 7.8 8.1 9 .8 Ü .2 12.8 9.4 7.5 4 .5 0.1 0 .1 0 .1 1.4 1.2 - 0 .4 - 9 .3 - 7 .0 4-86 7*0 7*2 8*7 11*0 11*3 0*1 6*2 3*4 -0*6 -0*7 -1*4 -0*9 0*1 -1*7 -0*6 -2 .2 - 0 .7 - 7 .6 - 7 .5 1-82 2-82 3-02 4-82 1-03 2-03 3-03 4-03 1-04 2-04 3-04 4-04 1-05 2-03 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-06 20.2 664.7 3*6 -1 0 .0 651*3 630*0P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PR E P A R E D BY FEO ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS JA M iiA »v |<>n7_________________ _________________________ 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT OOLLARS CÛHPQ1.IM U FT I A MM I I A 1 B A T F S OF CHANbE TERMINAL QUARTER T M T T IA I l- ft? 2-32 4 - ft? 1-flV i -n i 4-A1 1 —ft 4 2.1 n t liß T P D ? —A 4 A-ft 4 4-A4 1—ÄS 2-AS 1 - ftS 4-05 1-86 2-86 B IL L IO N S OF Dfll l ARS ANNUAL RATES 3-86 625.7 3-82 . 647.1 14.4 671.8 4-82 io .a 15.1 16.2 1-83 7.4 9.1 6 .6 -2 .2 . ¿-33 6 .8 7 .9 5 .8 1.0 4 .3 3-83 6 .2 7 .0 5 .2 1.8 3.8 3.3 4-83 4*9 5.3 3*6 0 .6 1*6 0.3 -2 .7 ...1 - 0 * 5*6 6*0 4*7 2 .5 3.8 3.6 3*7 10.5 2-84 7.6 8.3 7*4 6 .0 7.7 8.6 10.4 17.6 25.2 3-9.1 7*4 8*0 7*2 6 .0 7 .* 8.0 9.3 13*6 15.1 4-84 7*7 8.3 7*6 6 .6 7 .9 8.5 9 .6 12.9 1-85 7.7 8.2 7 .6 6 .7 7 .9 8*4 9.3 2-85 8*0 8*5 8*0 7*2 8*3 8*8 3-85 8*6 9*1 8*6 8*0 9*1 4-85 8*9 9*4 9*0 8** 660.1 675.2 680.7 676.1 693.2 733.3 5*9 743.8 13.7 8*4 763.4 11.0 12.1 8.1 9.2 7 .5 9 .6 1 1 *0 12*0 9 .0 10.0 9*5 il* 6 9 .6 10.4 12.4 12*7 10*4 11*5 11.7 13.9 16.3 9 .* 9 .9 10*7 12. 5 1 2 *0 10*0 11*9 12.1 13.7 14.7 9 .9 11.0 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 13.1 836.7 1-86 7.7 8.1 7 .6 7.0 7.8 8.1 8 .6 9 .9 7.0 0 .2 7 .6 7.6 6 .3 1.7 -0 .5 2-86 7 .9 8.3 7.9 7 .3 8 .1 8.4 8.9 1 0 .1 10*1 8*3 0*7 8*3 8*5 7 .7 5 .0 1.2 12 .0 3-86 7.8 8.2 7*8 7*3 8*0 8*3 8.7 9 .8 9.7 8.1 8.4 0 .0 0.1 7 .4 5*3 2*9 9*1 6*3 4-86 7.8 8*1 7*8 7 .3 7 .9 8*2 8*6 9 .6 9*5 9*0 8*3 8*0 0 .0 7 .* 5.7 *•0 8 .5 6 .8 7.4 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-04 2-04 3-84 4-84 2-05 3-05 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 1-05 860.8 874.0 8 8 9 .7P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM INARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY ¿ i t l? f l 7 ___________________________________________ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AMD SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS _____________ r.OMPQUNQFf) ANNUA I RATES Of CHANGE_________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S OF QUARTER ANNUAL RATES l-ft? ?-A ? 1-A? 4-A? l- A l 2-A1 l- A l 4-ftl 1—A4 2—A4 1-84 4-84 1-85 2—85 3-85 4—85 1-86 2-86 3-86 629.7 2-02 -3.1 3-82 2.5 0 .4 4-82 5.4 9 .9 11.4 642.5 660.1 649.2 1-83 2 .3 4 .2 2.1 - 6 .4 2-83 2.0 3 .4 1.7 - 2 .0 1.1 3-83 2.0 3 .0 1.7 -1 .3 1.4 4-83 0 .7 1.3 0 .0 - 2 .7 - 1 .4 -2 .7 -6 .0 1-84 1.2 1.8 0.8 - 1 .2 0 .2 -0.1 - 1 .0 5.1 2-84 3.0 3 .8 3.1 1.0 3 .6 4 .2 5 .0 11.5 10.4 650.9 653.6 1.7 642.2 650.2 678.2 681.0 3-8* 2*9 3*5 3*0 1 .0 3*2 3*7 4 .2 0*1 9.7 1*7 4-84 3*2 3*8 3.3 2.* 3 .7 4.1 4 .6 7.7 0 .6 4*0 6.3 1-05 3.1 3 .7 3.2 2 .3 3 .5 3 .5 4.2 6 .6 6 .9 3.4 4.2 2 .2 2-85 3** **0 3*6 2*9 3 .9 4 .3 4 .7 6 .7 7*1 4*4 5*4 4*9 7*7 691.5 695.3 708.3 3-85 4*2 4 .7 4.4 3.0 4 .9 5 .3 5.0 7 .7 0*2 6*3 7.5 7 .0 10.0 13.9 *-05 * .5 5.1 * .0 * .3 5 .4 5.0 6.3 0 .0 0*5 6*9 0.0 0 .4 10.5 11.9 1-06 3.4 3 .0 3.5 2 .9 3 .0 4 .0 4.2 5 .6 5 .6 3.9 4 .3 3.9 4 .3 3 .2 2-86 3.0 **2 3*9 3 .* 4*2 4*5 4*7 6 .0 6.1 4*6 5 .0 4*0 5*4 4 .0 1 .9 -1 .9 9 .7 3-86 3.0 4 .2 4 .0 3.5 4*2 4 .5 4 .7 5 .0 5*9 4 .6 5 .0 4*0 5.2 4 .7 2 .5 0*2 7*1 4 .5 * .3 4*7 * .5 4.1 4 .0 5.1 5.3 6 .4 6.5 5.4 5.9 5 .0 6 .3 6.1 4 .6 3.3 9.1 8.8 13.2 1-82 2-82 3-02 4-02 1-03 2-03 3-03 4-03 1-04 2-04 3-04 4-04 1-05 2-05 3-05 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 731.8 10.0 749.4 -1 .0 -12.3 725.2 742.2 750.4 7 7 4 .IP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS 1M I ______________________ ___ JANUARY i Z t 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CIMKENT DOLLARS c n ttfm w m pn a n n iia i e a t f s nF r w A M C F ____________ B IL L IO N S Of TEftHIJáAl________________________________________________________________ IM IT IA I Q H A B T C P ------------------------- -------------------------------------DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES --------- i^ft? ?-«? i- « ? 4 -n? «- ft* 7-fti i- ft i__ i - f l i ___i-aA— ¿ - n t__ \-ft4 1-&5— 2=A5— a=aa— 4-«^ i - R6 2-«6 ________________ - ^ A 2 -----6 ^ ---------------------------------------------- --------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2*241.8 .... 3-Q2_ 6.6 4-82 6- 1-03 6.3 6 .7 ft 2-83 2*278.6 6 .9 7.1 6 .2 6*0 * .8 6 .9 6 .9 6 .8 8 .7 2*318.1 2 *3*5.7 2 *3 95 .* 3-83 7-n 7.1 7.2 7 .3 8 .5 8.2 4-83 .. 8.1 8 .3 8 .7 9 .1 10.5 11.4 9 .6 10.0 11.4 12.3 14.4 14. L. 10.1 10.5 11.2 9.6 1-8* a.a_ 9.1 2-84 8.4 8 .6 2**43 .2 2*527.9 2*612.7 5.2 2 .6 * 6 .3 3-8* 8 .3 8 .5 8.7 9 .0 9 .7 9.8 10.3 8.8 6.3 7.4 *-8% 8 .0 8 .2 8 .* 8 .5 9 .0 9.1 9.3 0*0 6*0 6*4 5 .4 1-85 7.7 7 .8 7 .9 8 .0 8.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 5.5 5.5 4 .6 3 .8 2*693.8 2*729.6 2*7 55 .* 2*8 *2 .3 2-85 8.1 8 .2 8 .* 8 .5 8 .9 8.9 9.0 8.1 7.0 7.4 7 .4 a .* 13*2 3-85 7 .* 7 .5 7.5 7 .6 7 .8 7.7 7.7 6*7 5*5 5*6 5.1 5*0 5*6 - 1*4 * —85 7 .* 7 ** 7*5 7*5 7*8 7*7 7*6 6.0 5*8 5.9 5*6 5 .6 6.2 2.8 7.3 6*0 6*1 5 .9 6 .0 * .* 7 .* 1-86 7 .* 7 .5 7.5 7 .5 7 .8 7*7 7.6 6.9 6 .5 2 f 832.0 2*882.2 2*935.1 7.5 2-86 7 .3 7 .* 7 .* 7 .* 7*6 7.5 7.5 6*8 6*0 6*1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .* * .8 7 .0 6.8 6 .0 3-86 6 .9 6 .9 6 .9 6 .9 7 .1 6 .9 6.8 6.2 5.4 5 .4 5.2 5.1 5 .* 3 .9 5*2 **5 3*1 0.2 5 .9 5*2 5*2 * .9 * .9 5 .0 3.7 * .8 * .i 3 .0 1.5 2 .9 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-8* *-8 * 1-85 2-8 5 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-06 6*7 6*7 6*7 6*7 6*8 6*1 6.5 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2—83 3-83 2*978.5 2*979.9 3 *0 0 1 .2P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIM INARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST . LOUIS JANUARY ¿ ¿ 1 1?Q7___________________________________________ DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1962 DOLLARS _________________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANfcE_________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S Of TERM1NAI___________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1-82 2-82 1-83 2-83 3—Ä3 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 3-82 4-82 2-82 2*260.9 2 .7 2*263.4 3-82 1.6 0 .4 4-82 1.8 1 .3 2.3 1-83 1 .9 1.6 2.2 2-83 2 .3 2 .2 2 .8 3.1 4 .0 3-83 2 .6 2 .6 3.2 3.5 4 .1 4 .3 4-83 3 .7 3 .8 4 .5 5.1 6 .1 7.2 10.2 1-84 4 .4 4 .6 5.3 6 .0 6 .9 7 .9 9.8 9 .4 2*276.1 2*288.4 2 .2 2*311.1 2*335*4 2*392.7 2*446.9 2—A4 4.1 4 .3 4 .9 5 .3 6 .0 6.5 7.2 5 .7 2.2 3-84 4.1 4 .2 4.7 5 .1 5 .6 5 .9 6.3 5.0 2.9 3 .6 4 .2 2.5 2 .7 4-84 3 .9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .7 5 .0 5 .2 5.4 2*460.3 2*481.9 2*493.1 1.8 1-ftS 1-6 3 .7 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.1 0 .4 2-85 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 5.1 5.2 4 .4 3.4 3 .7 3.7 4 .7 9 .1 3—05 3.4 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3.1 2.1 2 .1 1.7 1.7 2 .3 - 4 .0 4-85 3 .3 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3.8 3 .0 2.2 2.2 1.9 1 .9 2 .4 - o .a 2 .6 1-86 3 .5 3 .6 3.8 3 .9 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.4 2.7 2 .a 2 .6 2 .a 3.4 1 .6 4 .5 6.5 2-86 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4.4 3«a 3.2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 4.1 2 .9 5 .4 6.8 7 .1 3-86 3 .4 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .A 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .9 1.7 3 .2 3.4 1.9 -3*0 4-86 3 .2 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .5 3.4 3.4 2 .6 2.3 2 .3 2.1 2 .2 2 .4 1.3 2 .5 2 .4 1.1 - i.a - 0 .5 1-82 2-82 3-82 4—82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2—86 3-86 2*495.7 2*550.8 2*524.7 2*540.7 2*581.2 2*625.7 2*605*5 2*602.3P IN IT IA L QUARTER P - PRELIM INARY PREPAREO BY fED ER AL RESERVE BANK O f S T . LO UIS J á M IA t Y 7 ? t I t I T ------------------------------------ 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* annual r a t e s o f chaude rn M P Q U M Q p n B IL L IO N S OF -TERMINAL (WÄRTER ANNUAL RATES 4-81 1-82 -66.2 2-82 - * 2 .* 1—fi 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1—8 3 2-83 4-83 1-8* 2-84 3—84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 107.5 107.0 - 1 .9 3-82 -30.5 - 0 .* 4-82 -26,0 - 3 .9 107.3 l.l 104.3 -5 .0 -1 0 .7 110.6 1-83 -17.7 2 .9 * .5 6.2 2 6 .* 2-83 - 6 .9 l* .0 18.3 2 * .7 * 7 .3 71.7 3-83 0.0 19.8 2 *.7 3 1 .* * 9 .5 62.5 53.9 4-83 0 .8 17.9 21.6 26.1 37.5 *W * 28.3 7 .0 1-8* 1.7 16.7 19.6 23,0 31.2 3 2 .* 2 1 .* 7.8 8.6 2-8* 1.1 1*.2 16.3 18.7 2 * .* 2 *.1 1 * .* 3 .6 2 .0 3-8* - 1 .* 9 .8 11.2 12.5 16.3 I* .7 5.8 - 3 .7 *-8* -1 .7 8 .* 9 .5 1 0 .* 1 3 .* 11.6 3.9 - 3 .9 -6 .5 -11.0 —1**2 1-85 - 3 .* 5 .* 6.1 6 .6 8.8 6.7 -0 .3 -7 .2 -9 .8 -13.9 -16.9 -13.9 -22.1 126,0 126,7 126.6 1*1.0 1 *3 .* 1 *6 .* - * .3 144.8 - 7 .0 - 1 * .0 -22.6 135,8 134,1 - * .9 2-85 - 3 .0 5.2 5.8 6.2 8.1 6.2 0.0 - 5 .9 -7 .9 -10.9 -12.5 -8 .8 -10.7 3-95 -1.5 6 .* 7.0 7.5 9 .* 7.8 2 .* -2 .7 - * .0 -6 .0 -6.3 -1 .8 -0 .7 12.1 22.9 *-85 -0 .3 7.2 7 .9 8 .* 10.2 8.8 3.9 -0 .5 - 1 .* -2.Q -2.5 2.1 * .0 I* .* 21.1 * .7 * .9 6.2 * .7 0.1 -*• 1 -5.3 -6 .9 - 4 .* - * .3 0 .7 0 .2 1-86 - 2 .* * .2 -7 .3 2 .2 133,* 139,* 19.2 - 9 .5 - 3 1 .3 126,9 - * .6 - 1 * .6 128,8 2-86 -2 .0 4 .3 * .7 5.0 6.2 * .8 0.6 -3 .2 - * .2 -5.5 -5 .7 - 3 .0 -2 .7 1.6 1.7 3-86 -0.8 5.3 5.8 6.1 7.3 6.1 2.2 -1 .2 - 1 .9 -2 .9 -2 .8 0 .0 0.8 5.2 5.8 1.9 - 3 .3 14.7 23 .9 *-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3—8* *-8* 1-85 2-8 5 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 6« L_ 135,9 I N IT I AL QUARTER * NAT IQNAI__ IftCQHE BA SIS ___________________________________________________________________ PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS JANUARY Z Z t L9Û7________________________________________ HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1983-85 are published in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tables, For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1 .6 8 68 1 64 60 I .56 56 I 52 1 48 1 44 1 . 40 40 36 1 .32 32 1 28 I . 24 24 1972 «RATIOS 1 1978 19791 1980 BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJ USTED DATA. SHADED AREAS LATEST 1 REPRESENT DATA PLOTTEDt P E R I OD S OF B U S I N E S S 1981 I SOURCE: 1 1984 1 1986 U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. NOVEMBER P R E L I MI NA R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S
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