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n f l T i o n f l L Economi c t r e i i d s
PREPARED

M O N TH E N D IN G :

BY

August 31, 1973

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST. LOUIS

RELEASED:

September 24, 1973

Monthly measures of real economic activity indicate some
slowing in the rate of growth has occurred in recent months.
Industrial commodity price increases have slowed in the summer
months. At the same time prices of many agricultural commodities
have increased at extraordinary rates.
Retail sales increased at a 9.6 percent annual rate from
May of this year to August, after rising at a 16.2 percent rate in
the preceding six months. The ratio of inventories to sales in
the first seven months of 1973 remained well below the average
ratio of recent years. Personal income rose at an 11 percent rate
in the three months ending in August, compared with an 8.6 percent
rate of increase in the preceding six months.
Industrial production increased at a 4.6 percent rate
from May to August, after rising at a 7.8 percent rate in the sixmonth period ending in May. Employment growth, as reflected in
both payroll employment and total civilian employment data, slowed
in the most recent three-month period from the rapid rates of the
previous six and twelve months. Despite this slowing in
employment growth, unemployment of all civilian workers as a
percent of the civilian labor force averaged 4.8 in the latest
three-month period, compared with a 5 percent average in the
preceding six months.
Wholesale prices of farm products and processed foods
and feeds increased at an annual rate in excess of one-hundred
percent from May to August, after rising at a 47.4 percent-rate in
the preceding six months. Wholesale prices of industrial
commodities slowed to a 5.9 percent rate of increase in the MayAugust period from a 10.7 percent rate of increase in the six
months ending in May. Consumer prices increased at an 11.4
percent rate from May to August, compared with a 7.2 percent rate
of increase in the preceding six months. Consumer prices rose at
a 2.7 percent trend rate from 1957 to 1972.




2

INDUSTRIAL PROOUCTION

----------------------------------------------------------- CflilPSUNQEP ANNUAL R ATES CP C H A N Q E_____________________________________________________________
I.LBM1NAL_______________________________________________________________ L N I T I A L

MCMH

1

2- 71

3-7 2

4-72

2-72

17.1
1 7.-S

l d. o

U.7

14.6

12.4

13.1

1 2.5

10.4

6.5

9- 7 2

EQNTH________________________________________________________________ 1967

10-72 11 - 7 2

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5- 7 3

6-73

»

100

7-73

6.5

4 -7 2

fl-72

18. *

5-7,1

7-72

16.y

4-72

6-72

15.3

3-72

5-7 2

110.0
111.6
11 3.2
113.8
6.5

114.4
2.1%

7-72

12.1

1 1.5

9.7

6.9

7.1

7.6

tt-72

12.3

1 l.d

1 J •4

6.4

S. 1

10.4

13.3

9 -72

12.5

12.1

1 1.0

9.6

10.4

11.7

13.8

1J-72

13. 1

12. b

12.0

IU.9

ti. a

13.1

15.C

15.<5

17.6

11-72

12.0

12.6

11.8

1 J•3

11.6

12.6

13.9

14. 1

14.G

10.5

12-72

12.5

12.2

11.5

10.6

11.2

12.1

13.0

12.9

12.4

10.0

9.4

1-73

12.<*

12.2

1 1.5

10. 7

11.3

12.0

12.7

12. *

12.2

10.5

1 0. 4

i i ^ N .

2 -73

12.4

12.2

11.6

10.9

11.4

12.0

12.7

12.6

12.2

10.9

11.1

1 2.0

12.4

3-73

11.7

11.4

1 J.U

10 . 2

10.5

11.0

11.4

11.2

U.6

9.3

9.0

8. 9

7.6

3.0

«-73

\iU

1 0.9

10.3

9.6

9 .9

10.3

10.6

10.2

9.7

8.4

8.0

7. 6

6. 4

3 .5

5-73

10.S
I

10.6

10. 1

9.4

9.7

10.0

10.2

9.9

9.3

8.2

7.8

7.5

6.5

4.A

5. 5

7.0

X

124.8

6-73

10.7

10.5

9.9

9.3

9.5

9.8

1C.0

9.7

9.2

8.2

7.8

7.6

6.8

5.4

6. 3

7.5

8.0

12 5 . 6

7-73

10.6

U>,4

9,<3

9, 3

9,5

9*7

9.9

9,i

M

8.2

8.0

7.8

7.2

6*1

6.9

8.0

8.5

8.9

8-7 J

S.9

9.6

9.1

b._5

8.6

8*8

8,9

8 .1

8.0

7.1

6.7

6.4

5.7

4.6

4.9

5.2

4.6

2.9

1-72

2-72

3-72

4- 7 2

5-72

6-7 2

7-7 2

8-72

9-72

1 0 -72 1 1 - 7 2

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

P-

115.1
116.3

14.3

117.6
119.2
120.2
1 2 1.1
122.2
j
r
1

123.4

^

123.7
124.1

4.0

1 2 6 . 5P
- 2 . 8 11

1 2 6 . 2P

7-73

P K tL l m A K Y




P R E P A R E D BY F E O E R A l R E S E R V E
S E P T E M B E R 17, 1973

BA N K O F ST. L O U I S

3

I N D U S T R I A L ? R O D U C T I ON
RATIO

SC A L E

7 9 6 7 —10 0

RATIO
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S
LATEST DATA P LO T T E D :




SCALE

1967 = 100

INDICATED.

AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUIS

4
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT"
TERMINAL

'

INITIAL MONTH

MN
O TH
1-72
2-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7t 72

8-72

9-72 10*72

11-72 12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS
4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

0.2

80,594

¿-72

4.8

9.7

4-72

3.2

4.7

-0.1

5-72

3. 3

4.4

1.8

3.7

6-72

3.5

4.4

2.7

4.1

4 .4

7-72

3.0

3.6

2. 1

2. V

2.4

0.4

8-72

3.2

3.7

2.5

3.2

3« 0

2.3

4.2

81«216
81»209,
81,458
81,752
81,782
82,061

9-72

3.1

3. 6

2. 6

3.1

3.0

2.5

3.5

*.S

1 0 -72

3. 0

3.4

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.5

2.1

1 1 - 72

2.9

3.2

2.4

2. 8

2.6

2.3

2.8

2.3

2.0

82,256
82,397
1.9

82,525

1 2 - 72

3.0

3.3

2.6

2.9

2.8

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.6

2.8

3.8

1 -73

2.5

2.7

2.0

2.2

2.0

l.f

1. 9

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.2

-3.2

2-73

2.9

3.1

2.6

2.8

2. 7

2.5

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.5

8.6

82,780
82,555
83,127

3 - 73

3 .5

3.8

3.3

3.6

3.6

3. *
5

3.9

3.8

*.0

4.4

5 .0

5.5

10.1

11.6

4-73

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.7

4.1

4.2

6.8

5.8

0.4

5-73

3.2

3.4

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.6

5.4

4.4

1.0

1.5
9.7

83,889
83,917
84,024

6-73

3.6

3.8

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.6

3.9

4.2

4.5

4.6

6.3

5.7

3.8

5.5

7-73

3. 3

3.5

3.1

3.3

3*3

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.4

3.8

3.8

5 .1

4.3

2.6

3.4

4.1

-0.8

8-73

3. 0

3.2

2.8

3. 0

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.9

3.2

1.6

1 .9

2.0

-1.7

-2.5

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7-72

8-72

9-72

10-72 11-72

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

W 3

6-73

7-73

5-73

4-73

7-73

84,674
84,614
84,434

INITIAL M O NTH

S E P T E M B E R 7,

1973

PAVRCLL EMPLOYMENT
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S CiF C H A N G E

1-72
2-72

THOUSANOS
OF P E R S O N S

INITIAL MO N T H

TERMINAL
MOK i t h
2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-7 2

7-7*

8-72

9-72

10-72 11-72

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

3.4

71,747
72,033

3 -72

4.2

4.9

4-72

3.9

4.1

3.2

5 -72

4.2

4.*

4.2

5.3

6-72

3.9

4.1

3.8

4.1

72,224
72,534
72,705

2.9

72,694

7 -7 2

3.2

3.2

2.8

2.6

1.3

-3.2

3-72

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.3

2.7

2.4

9-72

3.6.

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.1

3.1

1 0 -72

3. 8

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.7

5.0

4.8

5.3

1 1 -72

3.9

3.9

3 .8

3 .9

3. 6

3.8

4.8

4.6

4.7

4.2

1 2 -72

3.8

3.8

3 .7

3.7

3. 5

3.6

4.4

4.1

4.1

3.5

5.4

73,016
4.2

73,268
73,584
73,835 .
74,002

2.7

74,252

1 -73

3.3

3.8,

3.7

3.8

3. 6

3.7

4.3

4.1

4.1

3.7

3.4

4.1

2-73

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

’
•4.0

4.2

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.9

5*9

7 .7

3 -73

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.5

A.5

4.4

4.4

5.0

5.5

4-73

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.5

4.7

3.2

3.1

5-73.

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.0

3.8

3.S

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.3

4.4

3.3

3.3

3.5

6-73

3. 9

3.9

3. 9

3.9

3. 8

3.9

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.2

4.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

7-73

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.4

2.4

2,4

2 .2

1.6

-0.2

8-73

3.7

3 .7

3 .7

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.6

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.3

4.7

1 - 7 2 .. 2 - 7 2

3- 7 2

4-72 ’
5-72

6-72

7-72

9-72 10-72 11-72

12-72

.1-73

¿-73

3-73

*-73

*5-73

4-73

7-73

74,715
74,914

3.2

75,105

INIriAL H U N I H
P- PRtLIVINAriY




SEPTEMBF5

7» 1 9 7 3

75,321
75,526

3 .3

7 5,515P
75 , 807P

5

EMPLOYMENT
RAT I 0

SCALE

MILLIONS

OF

1965

RAT I 0 S C A L E
PERSONS

1966

1967

seasonally

1968

MILLIONS

adjusted

1969

1970

1971
SOURCE:

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E RI OD S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED :




1972

OF P E R S O N S

1973

U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR

INDICATED.

AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUIS

6

UNEMPLOYMENT
SEASONALLY

PERCENT

RATES*

ADJUSTED

PERCENT

6.0

5 .0

4 .0

3 .0

2.0

1 .0

0.0
1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971
SOURCE:

« P E R C E N T OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE
L A TES T DATA P L O T T ED :




U.S.

1972

1973

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

I N GROUP

AUGUST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUIS

I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING

AND

TRADE

72

72

68

68

64

64

. 60

60

56

56

52

52

48

48

44

44

40

40

36

36
1959
* RAT I OS

1960

1961

BASE D

ON S E A S O N A L L Y

1962

1963

1964

1965

ADJUSTED

DATA.

SHA DED A R E A S R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF
AS D E F I N E D BY T H E N A T I O N A L B U R E A U
LATEST



DAT A

PLOTTED:

JULY

1966

1967

1968

1969

SOURCE:

1970

1971

U . S . DEPARTMENT

1972
OF

1973

COMMERCE

BUSINESS RECESSIONS
OF E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H .

PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

8
R E T A I L SALES
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
IN I T I A L

terminal

MONTH
1- 72

2-/2

3- 7 2

2-72

30.1

If.3
21.9

li.9

li.8

13.1

14.6

14.1

15.6

IS.A

1 72

¿-72

7-7?

8-72

9-72

10-72 11-72

-5.0

20.7

6-72

12-72

1-73

2~73

3-73

5-73

*-11

6-73

7-73

44.7

17.2

5-72

M I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

17.0

3-72

<»- 72

MONTH

5-7 2

7-72

35.345
36,450
36,296
31.8
9.0

37,141
-9.e

36,822

3.J
14.5

9.2

20.2

22. 1

72

13.3

18 . 3

5 72

6-72

7-72

37,342

8-72

9-72

10-72 11-72

---------------------------------------- m m i

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

MftNT M--------------------- --------------------------------------------

P- P R E L I B I Mr'
e- e s t i m a t e o
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
S E P T E M B E R 11, 1 9 7 3

RESERVE

B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

PERSONAL INCOME
CCMPCUNDEC A N N U A L RAIES .Ef C H A N G E

2-72

11.5

A -U ___boll___iz lZ — A--.ll— Z zll ___a - 7 2

9-72

16.1

3-72

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL PCNTH

T E P^ I M L
PCNTH
.i- U

10-72 11-72 12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

912.8
7.1
7.6
6.7

6.5

5.5
2. 2

-C.9

5.1

4. 9

11.1

7.4

5.7

7.6

11.8

12 . 5
1C. 8

8-72

927.0

7.4

7.3

7.8

1C.9

9.3

9.6

1C.S

13.5

14.3

15.2

21.7

11-72

10.2

9.6

9. 9

10.2

11.C

13.6

14.2

14 . 8

17 . 8

14.0

1 2-72

10.0

S.4

9.6

9.9

10.6

12.6

12 . 9

13.C

14.3

10.8

9.6

10.1

11.6

11.9

11.7

12.4

9.5

7.3

6.9

12.0

9. 7

8.4

8.7

10.5

9.4

8.6

8.6

9.4

ICr-7

1-73

9.7

10.1

3- 7 3

9.4

y jJL

9. 5

2-73

9.5

9.8

11.6

11.7

11.«

S.9

11.1

11.1

1C.9

11.2

9.9

11.C

11.C

1C.9

11.1

977.6
7.6

7.3
8.9

9.8

1C.8

1C.8

lC.fc

1C.6

8.6

8.8

9.2

9.8

10.7

10.7

10.5

10.7

9.4

8.7

8.9

10.7

10.7

10.«

IC .7

9.5

9.0

9.1

9.5

9.8

1C.1

10.9

10.9

10.7

1C . 9

9.4

9.6

10.0

9.9

4-72

5-7 2

6-72

7-72

e-7 2

9-72

10-72 11-72

12-72

1-73

2-73

9.2

1 -72

2-72

3-72

,

1 0 1 1 .6

9.3

9.8

1,003.3
10.4

-------------------------------------------------------------------t M T U L

1,018.7

8.8

1,026.6
9.6

10.1

10.4

10.4

10.5

11.0

11.7

13.0

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

1,035.1
1 , 0 4 5 . 7P

M K f H -----------------------------------------------------------------

P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




PREPARED BY FECEPAL RESERVE
SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1973

BANK OF S T . LOUIS




RETAIL
RAT I 0

SALES

SCALE

B I L L IONS

OF

RATIO
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

DOLLARS

SO UR C E.
PE R C E N TA G ES

ARE

LATEST

PLO TTED :

DATA

ANNUAL

R AT ES

JU LY

OF CHANCE

P R E L IM IN A R Y ,

FO R P E R IO D S
AU6U ST

ADVANCE

PERSONAL
MONTHLY

SCALE

T R I L L IONS

OF

U .S .

D EPA R TM EN T

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

COMMERCE

E S T IM A T E
BY FE D E R A L

R ES ER V E

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

INCOME

T O T A L S AT A N N U A L R A T E S

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

DOLLARS

OF

IN D IC A T E D .

PR EP A R E D

RATIO

BILLIONS

RATIO
TRILLIONS

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS
1 .2
I.Ì

1 .0
0.9

0.8
0.

0.7

0.

0.6

0.

0.5

0.4

0.

1965

1966

19 6 7

1968

1969

1970
S O U R C Ei

PE R C E N T A 6 E S

ARE

LATES T

PLO TTED t

DATA

ANNUAL

R AT ES

AUCUST

OF

CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S

1971
U .S .

1972
D EPA R TM EN T

1973
OF

COMMERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

PR E L IM IN A R Y
PR EP A R E D

BY FE D E R A L

R ES ER V E

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

10
G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ________

TERMINAL

INITIAL

BILL I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

QUARTER
4-68
4-68

_L— 69.

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-70

2 — 1.0

4-70

3-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

1-73

4-72

890.2

7.0

907.0

1-69

7.4

7.8

2-69

7.4

7.6

7.5

3-69

7.6

7.8

7.8

923.5
8.1

941.7

✓ v
—
1

X

948.9

4-69

6.7

6.6

6.2

5.6

1-70

6.2

6.1

5.7

5.1

3.6

4.1

2-70

6.1

5.9

5.6

5.1

4.1

4.6

5.1

3.1

X

X+4.2%

958.5
970.6
987.4

3-70

6.2

6.1

5.8

5.5

4.9

5.4

6.1

T . l \

4-70

5.7

5.6

5.2

4.9

I 4.21

4.5

4.7

4.4

1.8 W

1 -71

6.6

6.6

6- 4

6-3

6-C

6.5

7.2

7.8

8.2

15.1

2-71

6. 7

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.2

6.8

7.3

7.9

8.1

11.4

7.9

991.8
1,027.2
1*046.9

\+ 1 0 .0 %

1*063.5

3-71

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.3

6.7

7.2

7.6

7.7

9.8

7.2

4-71

6.8

6-8

6- 7

6-6

6-5

6.9

7.3

7.7

7.8

9.3

7.5

7.3

8.0

1-72

7.1

7-1

7- Û

7-0

6-9

7-3

7.7

8.1

8.3

9.6

8.3

8.4

9.4

2-72

7.4

7.4

7-4

7-3

7-3

7.7

8.1

8. 5

8 .7

9.9

8.9

9.1

10.0

11.0

14.2

■*-7?

7.4

7 -S

7 .*
5

7.5

7.4

7.8

B-?

8.5

8.7

9.7

8.8

9.0

9.7

10.2

9.9

4-7?

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7. 7

fl.l

8-5

8.8

10.1

10.6

1-73

8-1

fl-?

ft-2

ft.7

a-?

8-6

9.0

9.4

7-73

a.?

8-3

8.3

8-3

8-3

8.T

9.1

9.4

3-68

4-68

1-69

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

1*084.2
1*112.5

10.9

I îo.ol
In .1

9.2

9.6

10.5

10.0

10.3

10.9

11.5

9.6

10.5

Q
1
ON
p

10.2

10.8

11.2

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

9.0

INITIAL

9.5

1*142.4

"W +12.5%

11.7

11.9

13.5

15.2

1*242.5

11.3

11.3

12.2

Î 12.5

1*272.0

2-72

3-72

4-72

10.5

1-73

QUARTER

RESERVE

BANK OF

IN ITIA L

-4r AflL
1-69

1-69

2— 6 9

3-69

4-69

1-70

LOUIS

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

QUARTER

4-68

ST.

N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 - D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ____________

IERM AL
I.M
3-68

1*199.2

10.2

11.7

P R EPARED BY FEDERAL
A U G U S T 17, 1 9 7 3
GROSS

1*166.5

8.7

2-70

3-70

4- 1 0

1-71,2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

W 2

1-73

_ ^________________________________________________________________
24

716.5
722.4

____ 3 . .L
3
J L m S l___ Î m â ____LsJSL




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
AUGUST 17, 1973

LOUIS

11

DEMAND
RATI O

SCALE

1965

QUARTERLY

1966

1967

1968

AND P R O D U C T I O N
T O T A L S AT A N N U A L

1969

U.GNP I N CURRENT DOLLARS.

RATIO

RATES

1970
SOURCE:

1971
U.S.

1972

SCALE

1973

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I2JBNP I N 1 9 5 8 DOLLARS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERI ODS
LATEST DATA PLOTTED«




INDICATED.

2N0 QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

L O UI S

12
COMPENSATION PER MAN-HCUR* TCTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
__________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L P A T E S O F C H A N G E ___________
.TE R M I N A L
QUARTER

.
3-48

4 49

4-68

7.3
7.6

7.0

3-49

4-49

1-70

INITIAL
2-70

3-70

QUARTER

4-70

1-71

1967 »
2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

100

1-73

5.9

2-69

2-49

8.7

1-49

i 49

110.9
112.5
3.1

114.7

3-69

7.5

7.0

7.6

7.2

4-69

3.0

7.8

8.4

8.5

9.9

1-70

6.9

6.6

6.8

6.3

5.9

2.0

2-70

7.1

6.3

7.0

6.7

6.6

4.9

7.9

3-70

7 .3

7.1

7. 3

7.1

7.1

6.2

8.3

8.8

4-70

7.0

6.3

6.9

6.7

6.7

5.9

7.2

6.3

4.9

1-71

7.1

t.*

7.0

6.9

0.9

6.2

7.3

7.1

6.3

7.8

2-71

7.1

7,0

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.4

7.3

7.2

6.7

7.6

7.3

3-71

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.0

7.0

6.6

7.4

7.3

4.9

7.4

7.4

7.5

4-71

6.9

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.3

7.0

6.8

6.4

6.8

6.5

4.0

4.4

1-72

7.4

7.3

7.4

7.3

7.4

7.1

7.7

7.7

7.5

8.1

8.1

8.4

8.9

13.4

2-72

7.3

7.2

7. 3

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.3

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.9

9.5

5.9

3-72

7.1

7.0

7.1

7.0

7.0

6.8

7.3

7.2

7.0

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.1

8.0

5.4

4.9

114.7
119.5
120.1
122.4
125.0
126.5
128.9
131.2
133.6
135.1
139.4
141.4
143.1

4-72

7.2

7.1

7. 1

7.1

7.1

6.8

7.3

7.2

7.0

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.8

4. 1

4.2

7.5

1-73

7.3

7.2

7.3

7,2

7.2

7.0

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

8.1

6.9

7.2

8.4

9.4

2-73

7.3

7 .2

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.0

7.4

7.4

7.2

7.5

7.4

7.5

7.4

7.9

6.9

7.1

7.9

8.1

6.9

3-68

4-68

1-69

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

In i t i a l

145.7
149.0
151.5

quartés

P R E P A R F D BY r E O E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
S E PTEMBER U * 1973
OUTPUT PER MAN<HOUR» TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ___________________________________________________________________
T E R M I N A L _______________________________________________ _______________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ____________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7 » 1 0 3
QUARTER
1-71
4-71
1-72
4-68
1-69
2-69
3-69
4-69
2-71
3-71
3-72
4-72
1-73
3-68
3-70
4-70
2-72
1-70
2-70
4-68

103.7

1.6

103.6

1-69

0.6

-0.4

2-69

0.1

-0.6

- ). 8

3-69

0.0

• Ü. *
*
*

-0.4

-0.4

4-69

-0.2

-0.6

-3.6

-0.6

-0.8

-1.7

-2.1

-2.9

-4.9

-0.5

-0.4

_____1 . 5 %

1-70

-1.3

2-70

-0.2

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

i

i

103.4
103.3
103.1
]

101.8
102.9

4.4

3-70

0.6

0.4

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.8

5.4

6.4

4-70

0.5

0.3

J.4

0.6

0.9

1.3

3.4

2 .9

-C.4

1-71

1.3

1.2

1. 4

1.8

2.1

2.7

4.7

4.8

4.1

8.7

2-71

1 .4

1.3

1. 5

1.8

2.1

2.6

4.2

4.2

3.5

5.4

2.3
4.9

104.5
104.4
106.6
107.2

s sJ4.0%

3-71

1.7

1.7

1. 9

2.2

2.5

3.0

4.3

4.3

3.8

5.3

3.4

4-71

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.5

3.0

4.1

4.1

3.7

4.7

3.4

4.0

3.0

1-72

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.8

3.2

4.3

4.3

3.9

4.8

3.8

4.4

4.1

5.2

2-72

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.9

3.2

3.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

5. 1

4.4

4.9

4.9

5.9

4.5

4.4

108.5
109.3
110.7
6.7

112.5

3-72

2.3

2. 4

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.4

4.4

4.1

4.8

4.1

4.9

4.8

2.9

4-72

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.9

4.3

4.7

4.6

5.0

5.0

4.1

5.4

1-73

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.3

3.7

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.8

4.3

4.6

4.5

4.8

4.7

4.3

4.6

3.9

2-73

2.4

2. *

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.4

4.0

4. 0

3.8

4.2

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.7

2.9

1.3

1.7

1 49

2-49

3-69

4-49

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4 71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

3-48




113.3
114.8
115.9
-0.3^

115.8

1-73

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BA N K OF ST. LO UIS
S E P T E M B E R 10, 1973

.

13
PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS
R A T I O SCALE

R A T I O SCALE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1967-100

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1967-100

1970

1971

1972

1973

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTED« 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNIT LABOR COSTS* TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-68

1 9 6 7 * 100

INITIAL < UARTER
O
3*68

4-68

1 -6V

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

7.0

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

106.9

1-69

6.8

6.5

2-69

7.4

7.6

8.7

3-69

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.4

4-69

8.1

8.3

8.9

9.0

10.7

108.6
110.9
112*9
115.8

8.0

8.2

8.7

8.6

9.2

7.8

7.4

7.4

7.6

r.3

7.3

5. 6

3-70

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.2

5 .9

4.4

2.7

2.0

1
*

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.1

5.8

4.7

3.6

3.7

5 .5

1-71

5 .8

5.6

5. 5

5.1

4.7

3.5

2.5

2.1

2.2

-1.0

2-71

5 .7

5.5

5.4

5.J

4.7

3.7

2.9

2.8

3.0

1.8

4.7

3-71

5.A

5.3

5. 1

4.7

4.4

3.6

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.1

3 .7

2.6

0

1-70
2-70

118.0
1

3.4

*
119.0
119.6
121.2
120.9

V+2.7%

122.3
123.1

4-71

5.1

5.0

4.8

4.4

4.1

3.3

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.0

3.0

2.1

1-72

5.3

5 .2

5.1

4.7

4. 5

3.8

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.1

4.1

3.9

4.6

7.7

2-72

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.3

4. i

3.3

2.8

2.8

2 .9

2.5

3.2

2.3

2.8

3.4

-0.6

123.6

12*. 9
125.7

3-72

4. 1

4.5

4 .4

4.1

3.8

3.2

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.6

2.6

2.9

0.6

4-72

4.5

4.4

4.2

3. 9

3.7

3.1

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.3

2 .8

2.5

2.5

2.7

1 .1

1-73

4.6

4.4

4. 3

4.0

3.8

3.3

2. 9

2.8

2.9

2.6

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.2

2.1

^
1 .9
1.9 | + 6
......... "1
5.1
3.0
3.5

2-73

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.2

4.3

3.6

3.2

3.2

3 .3

3.1

3 .6

3.5

3.6

3.9

3.2

4.1

4.9

6.4

3-68

4-68

1 -69

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-7 0

2-70

3- 7 J

4-73

1 -71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72




126.3

.4%

126.9

X

128.5
7.7 )

130.9

1-73

inmat w i tes

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
SfcPTEMSEP 13* 19 73

R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST . L O U I S

14
CONSUMER PRICE
COHPQUNOEO
TERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL

i-I?
. . I r 7 2 ___
3-72.
...

INDEX*
ANNUAL

2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7-72

8-72

9-72

10-72

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PATES OF CHANGE
MONTH
11-72

1967
12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

5,9
3,5

4-7?

124.07

Li 7

._2 j 2

124.30

5-72

3,2

2*4

.1..9

3.7

.2 . 9

2.1

2.5

2.6

1.5

2.7

3.1

3.3

3.1

4.8

_J*L .

3.1

3.2

4.1

3.3

_1*.4

3.7

3.7

4.4

4.2

5.2

3.2

-3-* 5

3.8

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.6

1*3

i*5

.2*2

3.7

4.2

4.0

4.3

- .8
*

3.6

3.2

3.4

3-6

3-5

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.4

3.0

2.5

3.7

3-5

3.7

3.9

4.2

4-1

4.3

4.0

4.0

4.3

.......2 = 1 1 ..

_A*Q

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.7

4.7

5.0

4.9

5.2

5.7

7-3

8 - b

.. 1 = 1 1 ...

4.5

4.. 4

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.4

5.5

5.8

5.9

6.3

7.0

8.6

9.8

4=21

4.7

4.6

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.7

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.6

7.2

8.4

9.2

9-4

5=11

.4*9

4.8

5.1 .„5.4. . _5^fl

5.9

6.2

6 . 3 ... ¿..7

7.2

&*2

8.7

8.7

.. = 7 1 ..1

4.9

4.8

5-1

5.2

5-4

5-7

5-7

6-C

6.0

6.3

6.6

7-7

7.4

7.2

__5.*9

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.6

7.0

7.2

7.5

7.7

8.1

8*6

9.4

9.8

10.0

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7-72

8-72

9-72

10-72

11-72

12-72

1-73

2-73

_
_

7-72

3t2

_

a- 72

3.2

_ .2*5..

9-72

3.5

3-tl.

1C-.72
11 = . 7 2 ..

.3 . 4

.12=12.

.. . l i Za . . .

_
_

3*5

100

123.95
1 . Ä.

4-72

__

»

7-73

_J5l. 1 . .

124.68
124.83
125.32
125.66
126.19
126.61
126.98
127.24
127-87
128.75
1 1 . 1 sS

.

129.88

AOf

j ft

7 - a V

130-7G
................1 3 1 , 4 ? _

-- tj'fc
.

. a=xi_.
.

INITIAL

6.2

5.7

4.8

9.8

10.3

11.4

13-7

" X
25-7t
1

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

132-51
1 35-OA
“
------

MONTH

PREPAREO

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST,

LOUIS

WHOLESALE PKlCtS - INOUSTKIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
___________________ C O M P C U N I C O A N N U A L R A T E S QP C H A N G E _____________________
INITIAL
1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7-72

8-72

9-72

1J-72

MONTH
11-7?

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-7 3
116.30

2-72

4.9

3-72

4.2

3.6

4.2

3.9

4-72
5-72

2-72




117.05

4.2

4.2

1-72

116.64

4. 3
4. 2

117.45

3-/2

4- 72

S-72

4-72

7-72

1-72

»- 72 1 0 - 7 2

11-72

I N I T I A L M'JMTH

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-7J

6-73

7-73

-------------------------------------------------------

o^cPAPr'i r?Y r FCFfcAL « F S F K V F
S H ^ T F M H P R 7, I‘
»73

HANK CF ST. L O U I S

--

15
RATIO

PRICES

SCALE

1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

1965

RATIO

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1966

1967

1968

1969

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R I O DS

1970

SCALE

1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

1971

1972

1973

INDICATED.

LATEST DATA P L O T T E D . AUGUST




’ REPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUIS

16
W H O L E SA L E PPICES - ALL C O M M OD I TI E S*
TERMINAL
MONTH

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INITIAL M O N T H
1-72

2-72

4.3

4-72
5- 7 2

3-72

4-72

5-72

4-7 2

7-72

8-72

9-72

19 6 7 - 100

10-72 11-72 12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

6.6

3-72

2-72

116.86

4.0

2.1
2.8

3.4

4.6

3.9

4.8

6.2

6-72

4.6

4.2

4.9

*».4

5. 0

7 -72

5.3

5.0

5.7

6.5

6.7

8. 4

6.8
6.6

7.8

7.2

119.95

6.5

7.2

6.6 6. C

120.53

117.06
117.39
117.98
118.46
119.26

8-72

5.5

5.4

9-72

5. 6

5. 4

6.0
6.0

10-72

5.0

4.8

5. 2

5.5

5.3

5.4

4.5

3 .1

0.4

6.7

11-72

5. 4

5.2

5.6

5.9

5.9

6.1

5 .5

4.9

4.4

—^
r 8.6

12-72

4.4

6.6

7.1

7.4

7.8

8.3

8.3

8.*»

9.4

14.2

20.1

1 -73

7.1

7.1

7.6

8.1

8.3

8 .9

9.2

1C.1

13.5

16.0

2-73

8.1

3.8

9.3

9.7

8.2

7-73

11.1 11.6
9.8
10.0 10.6 11.2 11.7
10.6 11.1 1 1 . 7 1 2.4 1 2 . 9
11.9
12.2 12.9 13. 7 14. 3
10.2 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 9 11.4 11.8

8-73

13.9

14.3

1-72

2-72

3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73

9.6

9. 8

10 . 5

120.57
121.40
123.27

6.8
10.2

10 . 5

U. 1

12.1

15.3

17.6

16.3

20.9

12. 4

12.9

13.8

15.1

18.3

2 0.9

21.1

26.0

12.4

12.9

13.6

14.7

17.3

19.1

18.9
20.5

21.2
22.8

12.0

124.44
126.42

L«V) JCOTL
r i i / O --31.3

129.32
12.3^N^

21.4

130.58

13.7

14.2

15.1

16.2

18.7

20.5

23.4

19.7

2 7 . 5 sS ^

133.25

15.1

15 . 7

16.6

17.8

20.2

22.0

22.3

24.4

25.3

23.4

29.3

136.30

12. 4

12.7

13.2

14.0

15.6

16.5

16.0

16.6

15.8

12.3

12.2

2 0 . 3 | 22.5t

24.1

24.6

26.5

27.5

26.8

30.7

31.8

32.0

106.3 ^

9-72 10-72 11-72 12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-75

7-73

15.0

15.8

16.5

17. 3

18.1

19.0

3-72

4-72

5-72

6-72

7-72

8-72

31.2
5.3 - 1 5 . 5

134.40
142.76

INITIAL H u N T H

S E P T E M B E R 7*
W H u L c S A L E P R I C B S - F A R M PRODU C T S AND P R O C E S S E D F O ODS ANO FEEDS,
C O M P C U N O E D A N N U A L R A T E S CF C H A N G E

1973

SEAS.

ADJ.
1967 * 100

INITIAL M O N T H

TERMINAL
mcnth

1-7 2
2-72

3-72

2-72

4-72

5-72

4-72

7-7 2

8-72

9-72

10-72 11-72

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73
118.4

11.9

3-72

5. 8
4.2

118.4

0. 0

4-72

0.5

118.5

1.0

119.5

5- 7 2

5. 7

3.8

5.7

10.6

6-72

5.8

4.A

5. 9

8. 4

6.2

7- 7 2

8.5

7.9

9.9

13.1

14.3

23. 1

d- 72

9. 7

9. 3

11. 3

14.0

15.2

20.3

16. 9

9-72

10.7

10. *

12.4

14.8

15. 8

19.2

17.i

17.8

11.4

11 . 6

13.0

5.8

6.5

120.1
122.2
123.8
125.5
-3.8

125.1

10- 72

9.0

d.6

9.9

11 - 72

13.1

9.9

11.2

12.3

13.1

14.6

12.5

11.1

7.9

21.0

1 2 - 72

15.1

15.4

17.2

19.4

20.3

23.4

23.4

25.1

27.7

47.0

78.7

1-73

14. 7

17.2

19.0

21.2

22.4

25.2

25.5

27.3

29.8

*3.4

54 . 2

127 . 1
133.4
136.9

34.4

2-73

18.5

19.1

21.0

23.2

24.7

2 7.2

21.8

29.7

32.?

43.2

51.5

39.4

4 2 . 5 ^ ^ 5 9 . 4 %

3-73

22.1

22.9

25.1

27.5

29.4

32.2

33.4

36. C

35.3

49.9

58.?

51.5

60.3

80.3

33.0

40.3

44.6

37.1

37.3

34.8

23.0

25.1

26.5

23.4

2*.5

27.4

29.1

26.5

2d . 5

30. 7

32.4

20.6

21.2

5-73

22.a

6-73

25.t
»

4-73

26.7

141.0
148.1

0.8

148.2

29.3

31. C

31.4

32.3

34.1

3* .3

43.3

47.4

41.8

43.2

43.4

27.9

62.3

34.9

36.0

33 . 1

4C.5

47.4

51.6

47.5

49.8

*51.7

43.2

70.4

2P.4

32.6

34.2

28 .8

27.5

24.7

13.8

18.4

1.2 - 4 2 . 5
104.4 118.2

7-73

2) . 2

2 J• 7

I

23 . 7

24.7

26.2

26.5

27 . 4

6-7 3

33. I

3 4.4

36. 9

3 9.4

41.5

44.5

46.3

49. )

52.3

1^1

64.4

62.7

66.8

71.2

69.5

92.9

1-72

¿ -ll

3* 7 2

4-72

5- 7 2

6-72

7- 7 2

8-72

9-7?

10 - 7 2 1 1 - 7 2

12-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

‘




—

...

I N ITIAL M O N T H

SEPTEMBER

7, 19 73

154.3
79.4

5-73

162.0

6-73

154.6
734.5 f
7-73

184.5

17
RATI O

S CAL E

19 6 7 -1 0 0

WH O L E S A L E

PRICES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS

RATI O

SCALE

1 96 7 -1 0 0

INDICATED.

LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST



PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

LOUIS

18
GE N E R A L
RATI O

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

RATI O

1958-100
155

SCALE

1958-100

150
145
140
135
13 0
125

120

1 15

1 10

105

100
1965
■AS USED

1966
IM N A TIO N A L

PE RC E N TA 6 ES
LATEST

1 967

1968

1969

1970

INCOME ACCOUNTS

ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIO D S

DATA PL O TTE D t

1971

S O URCEi

U .S .

1972

1973

D EPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

IN 0 IC A T E O .

2ND QUARTER
OF S T .

LO U IS

IM P L I C I T P R I C E D E F L A T O R FOR G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
___________C O M P O U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ____________
INITIAL QUARTER

TERMINAL

3-69

4-68




1-69

2-69

3-69

4-69

1-70

2 - 70

3-70

4-70

INITIAL

1-7 1

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEOERAL
AUGUST 17. 1973

RESERVE

BANK OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102