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’cTrends

Multiple Jobs,
Multiple Counting
In the first seven months of 1998, household survey
employment grew at an annual rate of only 0.4 percent,
well below its 20-year average growth rate of 1.7 per­
cent a year. Over that same seven-month period, non­
farm payroll employment grew at an annual rate of 2.1
percent, close to its 20 -year average annual growth
rate. As the graph at the top of Page 10 shows, a gap
between the growth rates of payroll and household
employment has existed for at least four years now, and
it appears to be widening again. Similar gaps existed in
the late 1970s and late 1980s, though neither persisted
as long as the current one. The chart below shows the
cumulative effect of these gaps since 1978: a conver­
gence in the paths of household and payroll employ­
ment that began in the late 1980s. Can we account for
the gaps and convergence?
Because the household and payroll series measure
different outcomes, it is not unusual to observe differ­
ences in their growth patterns. The household employ­
ment series counts the number of people who are
employed (currently, about 131 million), including
agricultural workers, unpaid family workers and the
self-employed. The payroll employment series, on the
other hand, counts the number of jo b s that are filled by
wage and salary employees at nonfarm establishments
(about 126 million). Thus, a gap exists between the
two series because o f the differences in the types of
workers they include.
To adjust for this difference, the chart at right
includes a third series that measures the number
o f wage and salary employees from the household
survey who work at nonagricultural establishments
(about 119 million workers). For most o f the postwar
era, this series tracked the payroll series closely, as
would be expected. As the chart shows, however,
this series has recently not been shadowing payroll

employment well; it is counting fewer workers.
Where else can we look?
At multiple jobholders. Why? Because the payroll
series, by counting jobs, double-counts people. And
since labor markets are currently stretched about as thin
as we have seen in decades, it is reasonable to believe
that more people are working multiple jobs, thus driving
up the growth rate of payroll employment while not
affecting household employment. In fact, the data
appear to show that the number of people working more
than one job (about 8 million) has been increasing mod­
erately since 1994, the earliest data available. Adding
these workers to the level of household wage and salary
workers stated above brings us close to the payroll
employment level. (Workers with more than two jobs
or jobs not on nonfarm payrolls distort this calculation.)
This answer may be too simple, though. Explaining
the gap with multiple jobholders assumes that their
importance has grown over time. But multiple jobhold­
ers’ share of employment has remained pretty steady—
around 6 percent— since 1994. So might multiple job­
holders explain the earlier gaps? Perhaps, but, unfortu­
nately, we are hindered by the lack of data.
— Adam M. Zaretsky

Measures off Employment
M illio ns

Household Nonagricultural
Wage & Salary

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



Tabi eofCon ten ts
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that were current on August 31, 1998.
2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3.

Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is:

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Subscription forms can also
be filled out electronically at http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Information in this publication is also
included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. The entire pub­
lication is also available electronically at http://www.stls.frb.org/publications/net.




National Econom icirends
Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change

7 - .....................................................

0.5 - .....................................

1995

1996

1997

1998

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Percent change
1.8

Percent

8 - ........

- ................................................................

1995

1996

1997

1998

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

4 1 ........................... 1
...................
1995

1996

1997

1998

Unemployment Rate

Thousands

Percent of labor force
6.0 - ............... ...........................

600 -

500 —

1995




1996

1997

4 0 ~l........................... I........................... I........................... I
1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

3

National EconomicTrends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago
1 8 - ..... mmmm •
•

...... "" ...................1

73

74

75

76

"'I........... r ...........I........... f
77

78

79

.......I...........Î ........... I...........I ........... I............I...........I

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

1........... 1
............ 1
...... H ...........I...........f ........... I...........I ........... I........... ! .......... I
T

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
■ m

12-

T

73

74

75

I

76

T.......

77

78

I

.... r

79

‘.....I.....“ T

80

81

I............I ........... I............I...........I........... T........... I ........... I.....

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

T .........I........... T

91

92

1........... T........... I...........T

93

94

95

96

I

97

98

97

98

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP

2-

2

wmm.

1 ..........1
73

T

74

75

T ........... r

76


4


77

T

I........... r

78

79

.....I....." T

80

81

1
........... 1........... 1
............ 1
...........1
........... 1

82

83

84

85

86

87

7 ........... 1
.....H T ......... I...........I

88

89

90

91

92

I........... T........... I.......

93

94

95

96

T

T 26

Nat iona IEconomic Trends
Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions
Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate
7

8

I

liiiw M
■ II^ H

I Advance

Preliminary
Annual Revision

6-

I

2—
097:2

Industrial Production and NAPM Index

98:2

8

-

56

6

-

50

4

- 44

NAPM
(-----»)

10

— 62

Indurrial^(Prodijction

2

00

1997

1998

C
O
u

1996

98:1

P
<

Index
- 68

- .......................................

_

97:4

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Percent change
1.8

97:3

0
1996

1997

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
3-

1998

Hours
35.0 -

-2

33.5
1996

1997

Real Change In Business Inventories
Billions of 1992 dollars
120 - ..............................................................




[

1998

1996

1997

1998

Inventory-Sales Ratio
Manufacturing and trade
1.46 - ..................................

1996

1997

1998

5

National EconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
10H-------------------------------------------------

96Q3

96Q4

97Q1

97Q2

R \\S ExDorts
S \]
I Inventories

Consumption

I

Imports

Contributions to Real GD PGrowth R

97Q4

97Q3

98Q2

98Q1

I
I Government
V//A Investment

Real GDP

ate
1997
1st

1996
3rd

4th

Real G D P

2.08

4.23

4.21

3.95

4.20

2.95

5.55

1.63

Final S a le s

0.90

5.08

2.86

2.68

5.69

2.13

4.28

4.32

C h a n g e in In v e n to ry

1.23

-0 .8 7

1.37

1.28

-1 .5 4

0.85

1.36

-2 .7 7

C o n s u m p tio n

1.25

1.97

2.90

1.08

4.17

1.87

4.08

3.93

1.36
1.48
-0 .0 7

0.76
0.97
-0 .1 6

0.89
0.78
0.12

1.74
1.53
0.23

1.80
1.89
-0 .0 2

0.56
0.22
0.31

3.05
2.50
0.58

2.08
1.51
0.56

-0 .2 9
-0 .3 2
0.04

0.0 0

0.37
-0 .1 8
0.55

0.38
0.23
0.15

0.25

-0 .4 3
0.43

-0 .0 8
0.33

0.02
-0 .1 3
0.15

-0 .3 3
-0 .5 6
0.23

0.62
0.39
0.23

-1 .5 2
0.25
-1 .7 7

2.54
3.53
-0 .9 6

-1 .4 4
1.04
-2 .4 6

-0 .5 6
1.92
-2 .4 5

-0 .6 0
1.36
-1 .9 4

-0 .3 6
0.59
-0 .9 4

-2 .6 6
-0 .3 8
-2 .2 9

-2 .5 4
-1.01
-1 .5 3

0.0 0

-0 .2 4

0.10

-0 .0 2

0.06

0.02

0.03

0.43

Fixed In v e s tm e n t

Nonresidential
Residential
G o v e rn m e n t

Federal
State and Local
N e t E x p o rts

Exports
Imports
R e sidu al

6




3rd
T

2nd

P

1998
1st

2nd

NationalEconomicTrends

Interest Rates
Percent

15

12
9

6
3

0

Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.5 - ................................
7.0 -

4.5 -

3m

1y

2y

5y

7y

10y

30y

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends
Percent change from year ago

50

25

0

-25

-50




7

UationaiEconomicTrends

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15 -

8




National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index

Crude Oil Price

Percent change at annual rate
4 - .................................................

Dollars per barrel
28 - .......................

3-

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Percent change
0.5 - ..................................

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ........................................................

3—

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change

Unit Labor Cost
Percent change at annual rate

6 - ....................................................
Nonfarm

- 0 . 7 5 -|....................................I.....................................I......................
1996
1997
1998

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Percent change from year ago

Percent change at annual rate

8 - .................................................

6 - .................................................




National Econom ic!rends
Employment
Percent change from year ago
8 ~ .............................- .......................... ~ w

6-

8 " " îî"î

4-

-2 -

•4 1 ............i —
73

74

r .......... I ............ l............. I.............r .............r

75

76

77

78

79

........ i .............i.............i .............i.............i ............ i.............i .............i..............i ............ r .....~ ~ r ...........t .............i ............ t .............i............ i .............i.............t

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force

4.50 -

—

....




Percent of population

94

95

96

97

98

National EconomicTrends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands
600 - .............................................

Thousands

100

500 - .............................................

-

.......................................................................................................

50 -

400 - .............................................
300 - .....................................

•

200

1 .................................. 1
.................................. |.....................
1996

1997

1998

1996

1997

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Thousands
975 - ...........................................................................................

1998

Percent change from year ago
2.5 - ..............................................

1996

1997

1998

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Unemployment Rate

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent

Index
Percent
95 - ........................................................................................................ - 8.0

6.0

-

.....................................................

80 - ............. W

»

V

- 6.5
Help-wanted

Unemployment Rate

4 0 1 ...................................................... 1
.......................................................r .................................

1996




1997

1998

\v

n

.

551............ i.............i............ i.............i............ i............ r 4 0
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

11

National Economic Trends
Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average

Household Debt Outstanding
Percent change from year ago

1
2




Percent change from year ago

National Economic Trends
Personal Saving Rate

Real Disposable Income

Percent

Percent change

8 - ....................................

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Percent change
8 - ...........................................................................................

1.6

-

1.2

-

rlli
1996

1

1

1

1

1997

ill
1998

Percent change
....................................................

-0.4 - 0.8 -j................................ I.................................I
1996
1997

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change
2 - ...................................................................................................

Percent change

1998

Consumer Sentiment (U, of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Index
120 - ...........................................................................................................................

Millions of vehicles, annual rate

Percent change




20

-

............................................................................................................................................................

ii.ii.I.li
1996

1997

1998

13

National Econom icirends
Real Investment
Percent of GDP
22

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago

-5
-1 0
-15

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago
60-




85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

National EconomicTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Percent change at annual rate
21 - ...................................................

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30 - ..................................................................................
Equipment Investment

-1 0

1996

1997

—

•20 - |.................I..................y................ j.................j.................. I................. i
1998

1993

1994

1995

1996

Real Equipment Investment

1998

Real Nonresidential Investment

Percent change at annual rate

1997

Percent change at annual rate
25 - ......................................................

1996

Real Residential Investment

1997

1998

1997

1998

Housing Starts

Percent change at annual rate

Millions, annual rate

20 -

1.8

-

.....................................................

15 -

10 -

-10

—

■

-15 —

-20 T

1.3 T
1996




1997

1998

1996

15

National EconomicTrends
Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars

Percent of GDP

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

Unified Budget

National Income Accounts

Fiscal Years

Calendar Years

State and Local
Receipts
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Expenditures

Federal

Federal
Surplus or
Dencit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

Receipts

Surplus or
Deficit)-)
Outlays

2 2 5 .6

1 9 8 .0

2 7 .6

2 9 7 .4

3 7 1 .3

-7 3 .9

2 7 9 .1

3 3 2 .3

-5 3 .2

2 5 3 .9

2 1 7 .9

3 6 .0

343.1

4 0 0 .3

-5 7 .2

2 9 8 .1

3 7 1 .8

-7 3 .7

2 8 1 .9

2 3 7 .1

44.8

3 8 9 .6

4 3 5 .9

-4 6 .3

3 5 5 .6

4 0 9 .2

-5 3 .7

3 9 9 .6

4 5 8 .7

-5 9 .2
-4 0 .7

3 0 9 .3

2 5 6 .7

5 2 .6

4 4 6 .5

4 7 8 .1

-3 1 .6

3 3 0 .6

2 7 8 .3

5 2 .3

51 1.1

5 2 9 .5

-1 8 .4

4 6 3 .3

5 0 4 .0

3 6 1 .4

3 0 7 .0

5 4 .4

5 6 1 .5

6 2 2 .5

-6 1 .0

5 1 7 .1

5 9 0 .9

-7 3 .8

3 9 0 .8

3 3 5 .4

55.4

6 4 9 .3

7 0 7 .1

-5 7 .8

5 9 9 .3

6 7 8 .2

-7 9 .0

4 0 9 .0

3 5 7 .7

5 1 .3

6 4 6 .4

7 8 1 .0

-1 3 4 .6

6 1 7 .8

7 4 5 .8

-1 2 8 .0

4 4 3 .6

3 7 8 .8

64.8

67 1 .9

8 4 6 .3

-1 7 4 .4

6 0 0 .6

8 0 8 .4

-2 0 7 .8

4 9 2 .0

4 0 5 .1

86.9

7 4 6 .9

9 0 2 .9

-1 5 6 .0

6 6 6 .5

8 5 1 .9

-1 8 5 .4

-1 6 2 .9

7 3 4 .1

9 4 6 .4

-2 1 2 .3

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

5 2 8 .7

4 3 7 .8

9 0.9

81 1.3

9 7 4 .2

5 7 0 .6

4 7 5 .7

94.9

85 0 .1

1 02 7.6

-1 7 7 .5

7 6 9 .2

9 9 0 .5

- 2 2 1 .2

5 9 4 .9

51 1.1

8 3 .8

9 3 7 .4

1 06 6.3

-1 2 8 .9

8 5 4 .4

1 0 0 4 .1

-1 4 9 .8

6 3 1 .4

5 4 5 .5

85.9

9 9 7 .2

1 1 18.5

-1 2 1 .3

9 0 9 .3

1064.5

-1 5 5 .2

6 8 1 .0

5 8 5 .9

95.1

1 0 79.3

1 1 9 2 .7

- 1 13.4

9 9 1 .2

1 1 4 3 .7

-1 5 2 .5

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

7 2 8 .9

6 4 8 .8

80.1

1 1 2 9 .8

1 2 8 4.5

-1 5 4 .7

1 0 3 2.0

1253.2

- 2 2 1 .2

7 8 4 .2

7 0 8 .4

7 5 .8

1 1 4 9 .0

1345.0

-1 9 6 .0

1055.0

13 2 4.4

-2 6 9 .4

8 4 4 .3

7 5 8 .0

8 6 .3

1 1 9 8 .5

14 7 9.4

-2 8 0 .9

1 0 9 1.3

1381.7

-2 9 0 .4

8 9 4 .4

8 0 7 .0

8 7 .4

1275.1

1 5 2 5.7

-2 5 0 .6

1 1 5 4 .4

1 4 0 9.4

-2 5 5 .0

9 4 9 .2

8 5 2 .3

96.9

1374.8

1 5 6 1.4

-1 8 6 .6

1 2 5 8.6

1461.7

-2 0 3 .1

9 9 7 .7

8 8 6 .0

1 1 1.7

1460.3

1 6 3 4.7

-1 7 4 .4

1 3 5 1.8

1 5 1 5.7

-1 6 3 .9

1045.2

9 2 2 .6

1 2 2 .6

1584.7

1 6 9 5.0

- 1 10.3

1 4 5 3 .1

1560.5

-1 0 7 .5

1094.3

960 .1

134 .2

1719.9

1 741.0

- 21.1

1 579.3

1601.2

-2 1 .9

1995
1996
1997


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

98

National EconomicTrends
Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

74

76

78

80

82

84

Change in Federal Debt

88

90

92

94

96

98

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

86

Billions of dollars, fiscal years
500fl

250 - f

-250
74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

........ f .... I
7........1

74

98

76

78

80

.... Ï.........Î.........I........ r

82

84

86

88

... T........ I...... I

90

92

94

96

1

98

Federal Government Debt
Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year,
excluding agency-issued debt
Held by

H eld b v Public

H e ld b v P rivate Investors

Total

Agencies

Public Debt

and Trusts

Total

Reserve Banks

Total

1994

46 9 2.8

1 2 1 3 .1

-34 7 9 .7

3 5 5 .2

3 1 2 7.8

6 5 5 .8

1995

49 7 4.0

1 3 2 0.8

36 5 3.2

3 7 4 .1

3 2 7 9.5

8 4 8 .4

1996

52 2 4.8

1 4 4 7.0

37 7 7.8

3 9 0 .9

3 3 8 6.2

1 0 2 6 .1

1997

5413.1

1 5 9 8.5

38 1 4.7

4 3 6 .5

3 3 8 8.9

1266.0

1995

Federal

Foreign and
International

125 4.7

36 0 9.5

3 6 9 .3

3 2 3 9.2

7 2 9 .2

131 6.6

36 3 4.8

3 8 9 .0

3 2 4 5.0

7 8 4 .2

4 9 7 4.0

1320.8

3 6 5 3.2

3 7 4 .1

3 2 7 9.5

8 4 8 .4

D e ce m b e r

49 8 8.7

1 3 0 4.5

3 6 8 4.2

3 9 1 .0

3 2 9 4.9

8 6 2 .2

M arch

51 1 7 .8

1 3 5 3.8

37 6 4.0

3 8 1 .0

3 3 8 2.8

9 3 6 .6

June

5161.1

1 4 2 2.4

3 7 3 8.6

3 9 1 .0

3 3 4 7.3

9 6 0 .3

Sep tem ber

52 2 4.8

1 4 4 7.0

3 7 7 7.8

3 9 0 .9

3 3 8 6.2

1 0 2 6 .1

December
19 9 7

4864.1
4 9 5 1.4

Septem ber

1996

M arch

June

53 2 3.2

1 4 9 7.2

3826.0

4 1 0 .9

3 4 1 1.2

1135.6
1192.5

5 3 8 0.9

1506.8

3874.1

4 0 5 .6

3 4 5 1.7

5 3 7 6.2

1571.6

3 8 0 4.6

4 2 6 .4

3 3 6 1.7

122 1.9

Septem ber

5 4 13.1

1598.5

3814.7

4 3 6 .5

3 3 8 8.9

1266.0

December

1998

M arc h

June

5 5 0 2 .4

1 6 5 5.7

3846.7

4 5 1 .9

3 3 9 3 .4

1278.0

M arch

5 5 4 2 .4

1670.4

3872.0

4 0 0 .0

3 4 3 0 .7

1288.0

June

5 5 4 7.9

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA




17

National E conom ici rends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars, quarterly rate

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
Yen/US$
..................................... - 450

Index, March 1973 = 100
180 - ...... ........r : r ...............

160 -

375

140

- 300

120

100

225

-

-

801

-

73

1 r
....
74

75

I

76

I

77

I

78

I

79

t I ..I.... I
..
80

81

Goods Export Shares, 1997
Mexico
10.51%

Digitized 18 FRASER
for


France
UK

IBS'

235%

82

83

I

84

I

85

I

86

I

87

I

88

I

I *T

89 . 90

91

I wI
92

93

I

94

I" I
95

96

I

97

Goods Import Shares, 1997

I

98

150

r 7
5

National EconomicTrends
Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
20 - ................................................

1996

1997

1998

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
2 0 ........ ..............................-...-......

0

1997

1996

1998

Beal GDPGrowth of MajorTrading Partners
Percent change at annual rate

United Kingdom
864-

20
- 2-1

1997

1996

1998

M a
8
6
4

2
0
-2

!

1996

1

1997

1

1998

Japan
18 -




1996

1997

1998

19

National Econom icirends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago

5 ~ î ":''T.... I
i.... "
73

74

75

76

Percent

T
.....I.... I
.....P ..I..“T
77

78

79

80

81

82

I I.... I.... I ... I.... I.. I I.Äf ....I
....
.
....
83

84

86

85

87

88

89

90

91

92

I

93

I

94

I.... I I.... I.... r 5
....
0
95

96

97

98

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data

7.5 Output/Hr

5 0 1 ..........I ...............I

52

54

56




20

1............ 1.............1............1............t ............I ............ ï

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

...... I............r

72

74

.....I.............I.............f .....“

76

78

80

.......I............I ............ t............I

82

84

86

88

90

.....r ............ I............ I

92

94

96

National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hou

Percent change at annual rate
5 - ..........................................................................................................................

~ 3 i .....................................r.................................... r.................................... I
1996

1997

1998

Percent change at annual rate
10 - ............................................................

~ 2 i .....................................I..................................... I.....................
1996

1997

1998

Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent

Percent
Corp. Profits

.................................. -

73

Compensation
-

71

Proprietors Income

- 69

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago

60

40

20
0
-20
-4 0




2
1

National EconomicTrends
Nominal GDP
Billions

Annual
rate

of $

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Final Sales

Real GDP

Percent chanae
Year

Billions

ago

of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate

ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate

ago

Change in
Business Inventories
Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr

Year/Year ago

65 58.1

5 .0

6 389.563

2.3

63 6 8.8 6 4

2.1

22.102

6 9 4 7 .0

5.9

6610.741

3.5

655 1.2 4 7

2.9

6 0 .55 2

72 6 9 .6

4 .6

676 1.7 3 2

2.3

67 3 1.6 9 6

2.8

27 .67 8

76 6 1 .6

5.4

6 9 9 4.7 7 4

3.4

69 6 1.6 0 8

3.4

30 .02 4

81 1 0 . 9

5 .9

7 2 6 9.7 7 9

3 .9

72 0 3.6 8 3

3.5

6 3 .21 0

4.3

5.5

6 7 1 7 .4 5 8

1.7

3.0

6 6 6 1.7 7 4

2.2

2 .9

54 .27 8

6 0 .85 7

2 .3

4.3

6 7 2 4 .2 0 2

0.4

1.9

6 7 0 0.0 1 0

2.3

2.7

21.668

4 7 .30 0

7 3 0 4.8

5.3

4.6

6 7 7 9 .5 2 8

3 .3

2.3

676 1.6 9 8

3.7

2.8

1 4 .70 5

3 8 .56 0

4

7 3 9 1.9

4 .9

4.2

6 8 2 5 .8 0 0

2.8

2.1

6 8 0 3.3 0 2

2.5

2 .7

20.061

2 7 .67 8

1

7 4 9 5 .3

5.7

4.5

688 2.0 0 0

3 .3

2.4

6863.6 1 8

3.6

3 .0

1 4 .38 5

17 .70 5

2

7 6 2 9 .2

7 .3

5.8

6 983.909

6.1

3 .9

6 9 5 4.6 8 4

5.4

3 .8

2 6 .06 4

1 8 .80 4

3
4
1997

7 1 7 0 .8
7 2 1 0.9

3

1996

1
2

1995

7 7 0 3 .4

3.9

5 .5

7 0 2 0.0 0 2

2.1

3 .5

6 9 7 0.2 7 8

0 .9

3.1

47 .50 7

2 7 .00 4

7 8 1 8 .4

6.1

5 .8

7 0 9 3.1 2 4

4 .2

3 .9

7 0 5 7.8 5 2

5.1

3 .7

32 .14 2

30 .02 5
4 0 .5 0 6

7 9 5 5 .0

7 .2

6.1

7 1 6 6.6 8 4

4 .2

4.1

7 1 0 8.0 6 3

2 .9

3.6

56 .31 0

8 0 6 3 .4

5 .6

5.7

723 6.4 9 7

4 .0

3.6

7 1 5 5 .5 3 0

2.7

2 .9

79 .04 8

53 .75 2

3
4

8 1 7 0 .8

5.4

6.1

7 3 1 1.2 4 2

4.2

4.1

7 2 5 6 .2 6 5

5 .8

4.1

50 .98 8

54 .62 2

8 2 5 4 .5

4.2

5.6

7364.6 3 2

3 .0

3 .8

7 2 9 4 .8 1 2

2.1

3 .4

6 6 .4 9 6

63.21 1

1

8 3 8 4 .2

6 .4

5 .4

7464.6 6 8

5 .5

4.2

7 3 7 2.4 6 8

4 .3

3.7

91.401

71 .98 3

2

1998

1
2

8 4 3 5 .2

2.5

4 .6

7 4 9 4.8 9 2

1.6

3.6

745 1.8 7 1

4 .4

4.1

3 9 .08 2

6 1 .99 2

Consumption
Billions
of 1992 $

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

rate

Nonresidential Investment
Private Fixed

Durables Consumption

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate

ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate

Percent chanae
Billions

Annual

Year

ago

of 1992 $

rate

ago

4 3 4 3 .5 6 3

2 .9

5 23.841

7.2

8 4 2 .7 7 2

7.6

6 0 0 .1 6 7

4 485.981

3.3

5 6 1 .1 8 9

7.1

91 5 . 5 3 6

8.6

6 48.361

8.0

4 6 0 5.5 7 0

2.7

5 8 9 .0 9 4

5.0

9 6 5 .9 6 5

5.5

7 1 0 .6 3 6

9 .6

4 7 5 2.3 7 6

3.2

6 2 6 .1 2 0

6.3

1 0 5 0.5 8 3

8.8

7 7 6 .5 8 7

9 .3

4 9 1 3.5 3 0

3.4

6 6 8 .6 0 2

6.8

1 1 3 7 .9 5 1

8.3

8 5 9 .3 6 4

1 0 .7

7.6

1

4 5 5 5 .2 7 0

1.9

2.6

5 7 5 .1 8 5

- 1.0

4 .5

9 5 7 .1 13

8.2

7.8

6 9 8 .4 0 2

16.1

1 1.5

2

4 5 9 3 .6 2 8

3.4

2.7

5 8 3 .5 2 0

5.9

5.0

9 5 7 .8 2 6

0.3

4 .9

7 1 0 .1 6 7

6.9

10.8

3
4

1995

4 6 2 3 .4 1 9

2.6

2.8

5 9 5 .3 2 3

8 .3

6.0

9 6 5 .8 3 2

3.4

4.7

71 1 . 7 1 3

0 .9

9.0

4 6 4 9.9 6 2

2.3

2.6

6 0 2 .3 5 7

4 .8

4.8

7 2 2 .2 7 3

6.1

7.3

4.5

9 8 3 .0 9 1

7.3

3.7

3.0

6 1 0 .9 7 0

5 .8

6.2

101 1 . 3 6 5

12.0

5 .7

7 4 4 .7 7 7

13.1

6.6

4 .7

♦3.3

6 2 9 .5 0 5

1 2 .7

7 .9

104 3.5 1 7

13.3

8 .9

7 6 4 .4 0 3

1 1 .0

7 .6

4 7 6 8.2 8 5

1.8

3.1

6 2 6 .4 8 6

-1 .9

5.2

106 7.0 6 7

9.3

10.5

7 9 0 .1 3 8

1 4 .2

11 :o -

4 8 0 2.5 5 0

2.9

3.3

6 3 7 .5 0 7

7 .2

5.8

1 0 8 0 .3 8 5

5.1

9 .9

8 0 7 .0 3 6

8.8

1 1.7

1

4 8 5 3.3 9 8

4.3

3 .4

6 5 6 .2 7 7

1 2 .3

7.4

1 0 9 6 .0 4 6

5 .9

8.4

8 2 0 .8 6 0

7.0

10.2 "

2

4 8 7 2.6 8 3

1.6

2 .7

6 5 3 .7 6 6

-1 .5

3 .9

1 1 26.991

1 1.8

8.0

8 4 8 .1 8 4

1 4 .0

1 1.0

3

4 9 4 6.9 9 3

6.2

3 .7

6 7 9 .6 1 9

1 6 .8

8.5

1 1 5 9 .2 9 2

1 2.0

8.6

8 8 2 .1 8 1

1 7 .0

1 1.6

4

4 9 8 1.0 0 5

2.8

3 .7

6 8 4 .7 5 3

3.1

7.4

1 169 .49 2

3 .6

8.2

8 8 6 .2 3 1

1.8

9.8

1

5 0 5 5.0 6 2

6.1

4 .2

7 1 0 .2 5 9

1 5 .8

8.2

1 2 2 4.9 4 3

2 0 .4

1 1.8

9 3 1 .8 6 4

2 2.2

1 3 .5

2

1998

4 6 9 2 .0 7 6
4 7 4 6 .5 5 3

3
4
1997

1
2

1996

5 1 2 7 .3 0 5

5.8

5.2

7 2 9 .1 3 1

11.1

1 1 .5

1263.511

13.2

12.1

9 5 9 .8 8 6

12.6

1 3 .2




22

National EconomicTrends

Index
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995

ECI: Wages

Employment Cost Index

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

ECI: Benefits

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate

1 0 2 .6 4 3

2.6

1 1 8 .4

3 .6

115 .2

2 .9

1 2 7 .0

5 .4

1 0 5 .0 8 8

2 .4

1 2 2 .2

3 .2

1 1 8 .5

2 .9

13 2 .1

4 .0

1 0 7 .5 1 3

2.3

1 2 5 .7

2.8

1 2 1 .9

2 .9

1 3 5 .0

2.2

1 0 9 .5 4 1

1.9

1 2 9 .2

2.8

1 2 6 .0

3.3

1 3 7 .4

1.8

1 1 1.569

1.9

1 3 3 .2

3.1

1 3 0 .4

3.5

1 4 0 .2

2.0

2.5

2 .5

1 2 4 .4

2 .9

3 .0

1 2 0 .6

2 .7

3.0

1 3 3 .9

1.2

2 .7

2.0

2.4

1 2 5 .3

2 .9

2 .9

121 .5

3 .0

2 .9

1 3 4 .6

2.1

2 .4

1 0 7 .7 5 8

1.9

2.2

1 2 6 .1

2.6

2 .7

1 2 2 .4

3.0

2 .9

1 3 5 .3

2.1

1.9

1 0 8 .2 9 9

2.0

2.1

12 6 .9

2.6

2 .8

123 .2

2.6

2.8

1 3 6 .0

2.1

1.9

1
2

1 0 8 .9 0 0

2.2

2.0

1 2 7 .7

2 .5

2.7

1 2 4 .4

4 .0

3.2

13 6 .1

0 .3

1.6

3 .9

3.4

1 3 7 .0

2 .7

1.8

1.9

1 2 8 .8

3.5

2.8

12 5 .6

1 0 9 .7 7 2

1.8

1.9

1 2 9 .7

2.8

2 .9

12 6 .5

2 .9

3.3

1 3 7 .8

2 .4

1.8

1 10 .21 4

1.6

1.8

1 3 0 .6

2.8

2 .9

1 2 7 .4

2 .9

3.4

1 3 8 .6

2 .3

1.9

1
2
3

1 10.966

1.9

1 3 1 .4

2.5

2 .9

1 2 8 .5

3 .5

3.3

1 3 8 .8

0.6

2.0

1 1 1.447

1.7

2 .0

1 3 2 .6

3.7

3.0

129 .7

3 .8

3.3

1 3 9 .7

2.6

2.0

1 1 1.772

1.2

1.8

1 3 3 .7

3 .4

3.1

1 3 1 .0

4.1

3.6

1 4 0 .4

2.0

1.9

4

1998

1.4

4

1997

1 0 9 .2 7 7

3

D
O
<N

1 0 6 .7 3 5
1 0 7 .2 5 9

4

1996

1
2
3

1 1 2 .0 9 1

1.1

1.7

135.1

4.3

3.4

132 .5

4.7

4.0

1 4 1 .7

3.8

2.2

1
2

1 12.332

0 .9

1.2

1 3 6 .0

2 .7

3.5

133 .6

3.4

4.0

142.1

1.1

2.4

1 12.555

0.8

1.0

1 3 7 .2

3.6

3 .5

1 3 4 .9

3 .9

4.0

1 4 3 .2

3.1

2.5

Imports

Exports
Billions
of 1992 $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995

1
2
3
4

1996

1997

1
2
3
4

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

6 5 8 .1 8 3

2 .9

7 2 8 .4 0 9

8 .9

100.1

0.1

1 0 2 .2

2 .2

7 1 2 .3 9 9

8.2

8 1 7 .0 2 6

12.2

100.6

0.5

1 0 4 .2

2 .0

7 9 2 .5 7 5

1 1.3

8 8 9 .0 4 0

8.8

1 0 1 .2

0.6

10 6 .7

2.4

8 6 0 .0 0 8

8.5

9 7 1 .2 4 8

9 .2

103 .7

2 .5

1 1 0 .4

3 .5

9 6 9 .9 8 8

12.8

1 1 0 6 .1 2 4

13.9

105.1

1.4

1 1 4 .5

3.7

7 6 3 .8 8 5

9.2

1 3 .0

8 7 3 .4 3 3

9.8

1 2 .9

100.6

- 0.8

- 0.1

1 0 5 .5

1.9

1.5

7 7 4 .0 0 0

5.4

9 .9

8 8 8 .7 0 5

7.2

10.0

1 0 0 .9

1.2

0.1

1 0 6 .2

2 .7

2 .2

8 0 6 .2 9 1

1 7 .8

1 1.7

8 9 3 .1 2 7

2.0

7.2

101 .3

1.6

1.0

1 0 7 .0

3 .0

2.8

8 2 6 .1 19

10.2

1 0 .5

9 0 0 .9 0 0

3.5

5.6

102 .0

2.8

1.2

10 7 .9

3.4

2.8

83 3 .6 0 7

3.7

9.1

9 2 9 .0 6 4

13.1

6.4

103 .0

4.0

2.4

1 0 8 .6

2.6

2.9

8 4 5 .4 7 4

5.8

9.2

9 5 8 .9 3 9

13.5

7.9

103 .8

3.1

2 .9

1 1 0.0

5.3

3 .6

84 9 .8 9 3

2.1

5.4

9 9 0 .0 1 2

13.6

10.8

103 .8

0.0

2.5

1 1 1.0

3.7

3 .7

91 1 . 0 5 3

3 2 .0

1 0 .3

1006.971

7.0

11.8

104.1

1.2

2.1

112 .0

3.7

3 .8

92 9 .4 1 0

8.3

1 1.5

105 0.9 3 5

18.6

13.1

104 .2

0.4

1.2

1 13.1

4.0

4.1

9 6 3 .5 9 4

1 5 .5

1 4 .0

109 5.2 0 6

1 7 .9

1 4 .2

104 .7

1.9

0.9

1 13.8

2.5

3.5

3
4
1998

1
2

9 8 8 .1 0 9

10.6

1 6 .3

1130.521

13.5

1 4 .2

105 .6

3.5

1.7

1 1 4 .9

3.9

3 .5

99 8 .8 3 8

4.4

9.6

114 7.8 4 0

6.3

14.0

1 0 5 .9

1.1

1.7

1 1 6.3

5.0

3 .8

1
2

9 9 1 .8 7 5

- 2.8

6 .7

119 0.4 0 6

15.7

1 3 .3

106 .8

3.4

2 .5

1 17.6

4.5

4 .0

-7 .4

1.0

1219.171

1 0 .0

1 0 6 .7

-0 .4

1.9

1 18.7

3.8

4.3

9 7 2 .8 6 5




11.3

23

National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Household Survey Employment
Thousands

Change

rate

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours
Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year

Percent chanae
Year
Annua

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago

Thousands

Change

rate

ago

Index

rate

rate

ago

1993

1771

1.5

110692

2101

1.9

124.6

2.9

12 3 06 9

2810

2.3

114131

34 4 0

3.1

129.9

4.2

1995

124903

1834

1.5

117187

30 5 5

2.7

133.4

2.7

1996

126708

1805

1.4

119590

24 0 3

2.4

129557

2849

2.2

122677

30 8 6

2.1
2.6

136.6

1997

141.4

3.5

1

125656

449

1.4

0.6

118459

5 24

2

1996

1 2 0 25 9

1994

126323

667

2.1

1.3

119273

8 14

1.8
2.1

119974

701

120655

681

1.8
2.8

1.7

134.5

0.2

1.0

1.2

136.2

1.3

5.3

2.5

2.4

2.0
2.2

137.3

2.7

2.3

138.4

0.8
0.8

3.1

2.3

3.3

3.2

1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0

3.9

3.9

3.4

3.4

2.3

3.2

4.1

3.4

3

2.4

720

2.3

1

128697

9 10

2.9

2.4

121461

805

2.7

2.5

139.7

12 9 38 7

690

122317

856

2.9

2.6

140.9

1 2 9 72 3

336

678

2.2

2.5

141.7

130421

698

2.1
2.1

122995

4

2.2
1.0
2.2

2 .4

3

1998

744

127787

2

1997

127067

4

123934

939

3.1

2.7

143.1

2.0
0.8

1.9

124795

862

2.8

2.7

144.3

3.2

125518

723

2.3

2.6

144.6

0.8
0.2

3.2

1.5

0.8

2.6

2.2
2.2
2.1

136.6

-0 .4

-4 .3

2.6

137.3

0.5

6.3

2.7

137.9

0.4

5.4

2.8

1

131080

659

2

131348

2 68

Jul

126867

2 76

119741

192

1.9

126995

128

2.6
1.2

1.7

Aug

1.8

120024

283

2.9

Sep

1996

1 2 7 33 8

3 43

3.3

1.9

120157

133

1.3

Oct

127715

377

3.6

1.9

120382

225

2.3

2.2

137.9

0.0

0.0

2.9

Nov

127746

31

0.3

120683

301

3.0

2.3

138.3

0.3

3.5

3.0

Dec

127899

153

1.4

2.0
2.2

120901

218

2.2

2.4

139.0

0.5

6.2

3.6

1997 Jan

128541

642

6.2

245

2.5

2.6

138.8

- 0.1

-1 .7

4.7

1 2 8 51 5

-2 6

- 0.2

2.6
2.2

121146

Feb

121457

31 1

3.1

2.5

139.8

0.7

9.0

3.3

Mar

12 9 03 5

520

5.0

2.4

121779

322

3.2

2.5

140.6

0.6

7.1

3.7
3.8

Apr

12 9 27 5

240

2.3

2.6

122092

313

3.1

2.6

140.6

0.0

0.0

May

129494

219

2.1

2.5

122325

233

2.3

2.5

141.2

0.4

5.2

3.7

Jun

1 2 9 39 2

-1 0 2

-0 .9

2.2

122534

209

2.1

2.5

140.9

- 0.2

-2 .5

2.8

2.2
2.2

122811

277

2.7

2.6

141.3

0.3

3.5

3.4

122894

83

0.8

2.4

141.7

0.3

3.5

3.2

1.9

123280

386

3.8

2.6

142.1

0.3

3.4

3.0
3.4

Jul

129661

269

2.5

Aug

129747

86

Sep

129761

14

0.8
0.1

Oct

129910

149

1.4

1.7

123568

288

2.8

2.6

142.6

0.4

4.3

Nov

130575

665

6.3

2.2

123944

3 76

3.7

2.7

143.2

0.4

5.2

3.5

Dec

130777

202

1.9

2.3

124289

3 45

3.4

2.8

143.6

0.3

3.4

3.3

1998 Jan

131083

'3 0 6

2.8

351

3.4

2.9

144.6

0.7

8.7

4.2

131163

V 80

0.7

2.0
2.1

124640

Feb

124832

192

1.9

144.4

- 0.1

- 1.6

3.3

Mar

130994

-1 6 9

-1 .5

1.5

124914

82

0.8

2.8
2.6

143.8

-0 .4

-4 .9

2.3

144.0

1.7

2.4

7.8

144.8

0.1
0.6
- 0.1

- 0.8

2.6
2.8

145.2

0.3

3.4

2.8

Apr

131383

389

3.6

1.6

125234

3 20

3.1

May

131453

70

1.5

125562

3 28

3.2

Jun

1 3 1 20 9

-24 4

0.6
- 2.2

1.4

125758

196

1.9

2.6
2.6
2.6

Jul

131067

-14 2

-1 .3

1.1

125824

66

0.6

2.5


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

144.9

National EconomicTrends
Retail Sales

Industrial Production

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly
rate
ago

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year

Treasury
Yields

Unempl.
Rate

of dollars

1993

6.9

2072.434

6.5

10 3 .5 5 4

3.6

3.00

5.86

1994

6.1

2227.838

7.5

109.171

5 .4

4 .2 5

7 .0 8
6 .5 8

Billions

Index

quarterly

rate

ago

3 -m o

1 0 -y r

1995

2331.617

4.7

1 14.5 43

4.9

5.49

5.4

2455.234

5.3

118.499

3.5

5.01

6 .4 4

1997

1996

5.6

1996

5.0

2568.2 91

4.6

124.4 23

5.0

5 .0 6

6 .3 5

5.6

602.441

1.7

7.1

5.2

1 16.105

0.5

2.0

2.3

4 .9 3

5.91

5.4

6 1 3 .4 3 6

5 .7

1 18.228

1.8

7.5

3.8

5 .0 2

6.72

5.3

6 1 4 .7 4 9

0.9

4.9

1 19.270

0.9

3.6

3.5

5 .1 0

6.78

4

5.3

6 2 4 .6 0 8

1.8
0.2
1.6

7 .5

3

1997

1

2

6.6

5.5

120.3 93

0.9

3.8

4.2

4 .9 8

6 .3 4

5.3

639.631

2.4

10.0

6.2

121.940

1.3

5.2

5.0

5 .0 6

6.56

4.9

6 3 3 .8 9 3

-0 .9

-3 .5

3.3

123.3 12

1.1

4.6

4.3

5 .0 5

6.70

3

4.9

6 4 6 .8 7 3

5.2

125.1 19

1.5

6.0

4.9

5 .0 5

6.2 4

4.7

6 4 7 .8 9 4

2.0
0.2

8 .4

4

0.6

3.7

127.321

1.8

7.2

5.8

5.09

5 .9 0

1

4.7

6 6 0 .9 7 5

2.0

8.3

3.3

127.702

0.3

1.2

4.7

5.0 5

5.59

2

1998

1

2

4.4

6 7 3 .6 8 8

1.9

7.9

6.3

128.2 97

0.5

1.9

4.0

4.9 8

5.60

Jul

5.5

2 0 4 .3 7 4

0.1

1.1

5.1

1 18.943

0.0

0.5

4.1

5.15

6.87

Aug

5.2

2 0 4 .2 5 6

- 0.1

-0 .7

4.3

1 19.253

0.3

3.2

3.3

5.05

6 .6 4

Sep

1996

5.2

206.1 19

0.9

1 1.5

5.2

1 19.613

0.3

3.7

3.2

5.09

6 .8 3

Oct

5.3

2 0 8 .1 1 3

1.0

12.2

6.4

119.6 50

3.7

4.99

6 .5 3

5.4

2 0 7 .8 4 4

- 0.1

-1 .5

5.2

120.5 87

0.0
0.8

0.4

Nov

9.8

4.3

5 .0 3

6.20

Dec

5.3

208.651

0.4

4.8

4.9

120.9 43

0.3

3.6

4.7

4.91

6 .3 0

1997 Jan

5.3

21 1.170

1.2

15.5

6.4

121.2 88

0.3

3.5

5.2

5 .0 3

6.58

Feb

5.3

2 1 3 .9 4 5

1.3

17.0

6.2

1 22.0 64

0.6

8.0

4.6

5.01

6.42

Mar

5.2

2 1 4 .5 1 6

0.3

3.3

5.9

122.468

0.3

4.0

5.3

5 .1 4

6.69
6.89

Apr

5.0

21 1.018

- 1.6

-1 7 .9

3.6

123.0 73

0.5

6.1

4.7

5 .1 6

May

4.8

2 1 0 .5 3 2

- 0.2

-2 .7

2.4

123.316

2.4

4.3

5 .0 5

6.71

Jun

5.0

2 1 2 .3 4 3

0.9

10.8

4.0

123.546

0.2
0.2

2.3

3.9

4 .9 3

6.49

Jul

4.9

2 1 5 .3 6 3

1.4

18.5

5.4

124.527

4.7

5 .0 5

6.22

4.9

2 1 6 .0 2 2

0.3

3.7

5.8

125.2 46

0.8
0.6

10.0

Aug

7.2

5.0

5 .1 4

6.30

Sep

4.9

2 1 5 .4 8 8

- 0.2

-2 .9

4.5

125.585

0.3

3.3

5.0

4 .9 5

6.21

Oct

4.8

215.1 13

- 0.2

- 2.1

3.4

126.5 50

5.8

4 .9 7

6.03

4.6

2 1 5 .9 1 4

0.4

4.6

3.9

127.5 28

0.8
0.8

9.6

Nov

9.7

5.8

5 .1 4

5.8 7

Dec

4.7

2 1 6 .8 6 7

0.4

5.4

3.9

127.8 84

0.3

3.4

5.7

5.1 6

5.81

1998 Jan

4.7

2 1 9 .0 0 4

1.0

12.5

3.7

127.8 13

- 0.1

-0 .7

5.4

5 .0 4

5 .5 4

Feb

4.6

220.866

0.9

10.7

3.2

127.327

-0 .4

-4 .5

4.3

5 .0 9

5.5 7

Mar

4.7

2 2 1 .1 0 5

0.1

1.3

3.1

127.966

0.5

6.2

4.5

5 .0 3

5.6 5

Apr

4.3

2 2 2 .7 0 7

0.7

9.0

5.5

128.407

0.3

4.2

4.3

4 .9 5

5 .6 4

May

4.3

2 2 5 .3 7 0

15.3

7.0

128.945

0.4

5.1

4.6

5 .0 0

5 .6 5

Jun

4.5

225.61 1

1.2
0.1

1.3

6.2

127.538

- 1.1

-1 2 .3

3.2

4 .9 8

5.5 0

Jul

4.5

2 2 4 .7 3 9

-0 .4

-4 .5

4.4

126.788

- 0.6

- 6.8

1.8

4 .9 6

5 .4 6




25

National EconomicTrends
rroaucer rnce inaex

consumer rnceinaex

less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index
Index

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly
rate

Year
to date

Index

Finished Goods

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly
rate

Percent chanae
Year
to date

Index

Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate

Year
ago

1993

144.6

3.0

15 2 .4

3.3

124.7

1994

148.3

156.7

2.8

125.5

1995

152.5

2.6
2.8

1 6 1 .4

3.0

127.9

1.9

1996

157.0

2.9

1 6 5 .8

2.7

131.3

2.6

1 60.6

2.3

169.7

2.4

131.8

1997

.

1.2
0.6

0.4

*

155.1

0.8

3.2

2.8

3.2

164.2

0.7

2.6

2.9

2.6

129.9

0.9

3.8

2.2

156.5

0.9

3.7

2.9

3.5

165.2

0.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

131.1

0.9

3.7

2.5

3

157.5

2.9

3.1

166.3

0.7

2.7

2.7

0.3

1.2

2.8

3.3

3.2

3.2

16 7 .4

0.6

2.6

2.6

2.6
2.6

131.5

158.8

0.6
0.8

2.4

4
1997

1

2

1996

132.6

0.8

3.3

3.0

168.3

0.5

2.2

2.5

2.2

132.7

0.1

0.2

2.1

169.4

0.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

131.7

- 0.8

-3 .0

0.4

1
p

159.6

0.5

2.2

2.9

160.2

0.3

1.3

2.3

3

1 60.9

0.5

1.9

2.2

2.2
1.8
1.8

170.2

0.4

1.7

2.3

- 0.2

- 0.8

- 0.1

161.8

0.5

2.1

1.9

1.9

171.1

0.5

2.1

2.2

2.2
2.2

131.4

4

131.6

0.2

0.6

- 0.8

1996

1

162.0

0.1

0.5

1.5

0.5

172.1

0.6

2.4

2.3

2.4

130.5

- 0.8

-3 .3

- 1.6

2

1998

1 62.8

0.5

2.0

1.6

1.2

173.2

0.7

2.7

2.2

2.5

130.4

- 0.1

-0 .3

- 1.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

131.3

- 0.1

-0 .9

2.6

2.2

2.7

2.7

131.5

2.9

2.6

2.7

131.8

0.2
0.2

1.8
2.8

2.9

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.7

132.3

0.4

4.6

3.1

2.7

132.5

0.2

1.8

3.0

2.6

133.0

0.4

4.6

2.9

2.2
2.2
2.2

2.5

133.0

0.0

0.0

2.5

132.6

-0 .3

-3 .5

2.2

2 .4

2.2
2.2
2.2

1 32.4

- 0.2

- 1.8

1.5

Jul

157.2

0.3

3.1

2.9

3.5

166.0

Aug

1 57.4

0.1

1.5

2.9

3.2

166.3

Sep

157.8

0.3

3.1

3.0

3.2

166.7

Oct

1 58.3

0.3

3.9

3.0

3.3

167.1

Nov

1 58.8

0.3

3.9

3.2

3.3

167.4

Dec

1 59.2

0.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

167.7

1997 Jan

1 59.4

3.0

1.5

168.0

1 59.7

2.3

3.0

1.9

168.3

Mar

1 59.8

0.1
0.2
0.1

1.5

Feb

0.8

2.7

1.5

168.6

0.2
0.2
0.2

Apr
May

1 60.0
1 60.1

Jun

1 60.4

Jul

160.6

Aug

160.9

Sep

161.3

2.2
2.2

2.5

2.9

0.1
0.1
0.2

1.5

2.4

1.5

169.2

0 .4

4.4

2.6

2.7

131.9

-0 .4

-4 .4

0.8

0.8

2.2

1.4

169.4

1.4

2.5

2.5

131.7

- 0.2

- 1.8

0.5

2.3

2.3

1.5

169.7

0.1
0.2

2.1

2.5

2.4

1 31.4

- 0.2

-2 .7

0.0

0.1
0.2
0.2

1.5

170.0

1.6
1.8

170.1

3.0

2.2
2.2
2.2

1.5

2.3

170.4

2.3

2.1

1.5

1.9

1.8
1.8

1 71.0

0.7

1.7

1.7

0.2
0.1
0.1

Oct

161.6

Nov

1 61.8

Dec

161.9

1998 Jan

161.9

Feb

1 62.0

Mar

162.0

0.0
0.1
0.0

2.1

2.4

2.4

131.1

- 0.2

-2 .7

- 0.2

0.7

2.3

1 31.3

0.2

1.8

- 0.2

2.1

2.2

2.2
2.2

1 31.8

0 .4

4.7

0.0

2.9

1 31.8

0.0

0.0

-0 .4

2.1
2.2

1 31.6

- 0.2

- 1.8

-0 .7

2.8

2.2
2.2
2.2

2.2

1 71.4

0.2
0.1
0.2

131.4

- 0.2

- 1.8

- 1.2

1 71.7

0.2

2.1

2.2

1 70.8

0.2
0.1
0.2

1.4

0.0

1.6

0.0

0.7

1.4

0.4

172.2

0.3

3.6

0.0

1.4

0.2

1 72.4

0.1

1.4

130.6

- 0.6

-7.1

- 1.8

2.3

2.1
2.8

130.5

- 0.1

-0 .9

- 1.6

2.3

2.4

130.4

- 0.1

-0 .9

-1 .5

Apr

1 6 2 .4

0.2

3.0

1.5

0.9

172.9

0.3

3.5

2.2

2.6

130.3

- 0.1

-0 .9

- 1.2

May

1 62.9

0 .3

3.8

1.7

1.5

1 73.3

2.8

2.3

2.7

130.5

-0 .9

163.0

0.1

0.7

1.6

1.4

1 73.5

1.4

2.2

2.5

130.4

0.2
- 0.1

1.9

Jun

0.2
0.1

-0 .9

- 0.8

Jul

1 63.3

0.2

2.2

1.7

1.5

173.8

0.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

130.7

0.2

2.8

-0 .3


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, prelim inary, and final GDP
grow th rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com­
plete information. The Purchasing M anagers’ Index is a weighted
average o f diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution o f a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.j)/GDP,.i)4 - 1]. The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.

Page 7: Ten-year T reasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. S tandard and
P o o r’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude ( Wall Street Journal). Consum er price
index is for all urban consumers. The consum ption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component o f GDP. The Employm ent Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. E C I compensation refers to a fixed sample
o f jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non­
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: N onfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates o f civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.

Pages 13: The M ichigan consum er sentim ent index shows changes
in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about
their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.

Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum o f the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investm ent (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.

and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption o f government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. O utlays an d receipts are from the NIP As, except
as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal y ear starts on October 1.
Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent o f federal debt at the end o f
fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings o f the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.

Pages 18, 19: The tra d e balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (mer­
chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex­
ports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals incom e received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus incom e paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The c u rre n t ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.

Pages 20, 21: O utput p e r h o u r (Y/H), unit lab o r cost (C/Y), and
compensation per h o u r (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per h o u r uses the CPI to adjust for the effects o f infla­
tion. M ultifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities o f labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustm ents (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part o f GDP). Capital con­
sumption adjustm ents (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components o f national
income not shown are rental incom e o f persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in­
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales

Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country

Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity

United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt

Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, household debt

The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index

The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index

Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

Pages 16, 17: Governm ent consum ption and investm ent is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income




27

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