Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1997
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August 1997 cTrends Nominal Vs. Real Wage Growth per hour, as well as two statistics that measure the two factors determining nominal wages— the GDP chain price index (a measure of overall prices) and nonfarm output per hour (a measure of labor produc tivity). Consistent with theory, the growth of non farm compensation per hour appears to track the sum of the growth rates of the two factors. The chart also shows the changes in the relative con tributions of inflation and labor productivity growth to the rise in nominal wages. Although nominal wages have grown faster since 1973, the composition of their growth since then looks much different than it does prior to 1973. Before 1973, the growth of labor pro ductivity accounted for more than half the growth of nominal wages, but accounted for less than one-fifth of the increase since 1973. So most of the recent growth in wages merely reflects increases in overall prices. Increases in standards of living do not come from higher wages per se, but from higher productivity. So while inflation may increase everyone’s compensation, it does not increase our standard of living. — Peter Yoo Nominal wages, measured by nonfarm compensa tion per hour, grew at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent between 1947 and 1973 and 6 percent between 1973 and 1996. Yet real wages grew much faster during the earlier period than during the later one. This discrepancy between the growth rates of nominal and real wages underlies current concerns about stagnant standards of living since 1973. What is the difference between a nominal wage and a real wage? A nominal wage is the compensation received by a worker measured in current dollars. A real wage adjusts the nominal wage by its purchasing power and determines our standards of living. Therefore, nominal wages may increase without a corresponding increase in standards of living, if increases in nominal wages reflect higher prices. Changes in nominal wages, however, reflect more than changes in prices; they also reflect changes in labor productivity. Economic theory states that the price of Growth of Wages the good or service produced Percent Change From Year Ago and the productivity of labor determine nominal wages. Therefore, growth of nominal wages should depend on changes in the price of goods and services (the inflation rate) and the growth of labor produc tivity. So an increase in nominal wages may reflect an increase in prices or an increase in labor productivity. The chart shows the m ove ments o f the annual growth rates o f nonfarm compensation Year Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System Tabi egfConfenfs Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources NOTE Data from the national income and product accounts shown in this issue of National Economic Trends reflect comprehensive annual revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These revisions affect data beginning with the first quarter of 1993. Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on August 1, 1997. 2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is: 100 x -1 For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. National Econom/c7rencis Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate 6 - ..................................................................................... 0.5 - ...................................... Percent change “ 1 1 ........................... 1.......................... I........................... I........................... I 1994 1995 1996 1997 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change 1.8 - ............................................................. Percent 2 1 ........................... 1........................... 1........................... 1.................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1994 1995 1996 1997 Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Thousands Percent of labor force 600 - ................................................. 7.0 - ................... 4 5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 ..................................................1..................... ............................ I..................................................I................................ 1994 1995 1996 1997 3 National EconomicTrends Percent change from year ago Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 ¿»»a. Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 4 for FRASER Digitized Index National EconomicTrends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 6 - 8 -C Preliminary Annual Revision □ Advance Final 6- 4 - .. 2— 0 0— 1995 1996 1997 96:2 96:4 Index Percent change — .................................... 97:2 68 Percent change at annual rate 10 - ................................................................- .................................................. 1995 1996 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change 4 - ....................... Hours 35.0 — I .1 I I I I 1 1 97:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Industrial Production and NAPM Index 1.8 - 96:3 1997 1. ■ .1 l l ll i j . l l 1 1 1 1 ' 1 •2 - |.................................... •[.................................... I........................ 1995 1996 1997 33.5 1995 Real Change in Business Inventories Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 1992 dollars 80 - ..... .......................... Manufacturing and trade 1.46 - ....................... 1996 1997 1.31 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 5 National EconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percent change at annual rate -10 - t --------------- --------- ---------------------------------------------------------------- -4 96Q2 96Q1 95Q4 95Q3 Consumption ¡MSÜM Imports 96Q4 96Q3 Exports Î . L . . 1 .1 Inventnrins 97Q2 97Q1 Real GDP Government V//A Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 1995 3rd .. I . . I 1996 1st 2nd 3rd 4th ! 1997 1st I Real GDP 3.04 2.23 1. 77 5 . 97 1. 03 4.31 Final Sales 3.26 1. 94 2.56 5.21 0.16 4. 4 9 -0.27 0.31 I -0.83 0.78 0.96 -0.29 Consumption 1. 76 1. 22 I 2.13 2.53 0.35 Fixed Investment 0.50 0.83 I 1. 49 2.02 Nonresidential Residential 0.17 0.51 ! 1. 19 1. 34 0.30 0.31 I 0.31 -0.14 -1.02 i 0.32 -0.09 -1.23 I 0.49 0.58 -0.05 0.21 ! -0.16 0.71 Net Exports 1.19 1. 00 I -1.45 -0.69 Exports Imports 1. 50 1. 32 0.21 1. 13 -0.30 -0.31 -1.66 0.01 -0.12 I I I 0.1 1 Change in Inventory Government Federal State and Local Residual Digitized 6 for FRASER 2nd 4.89 2.16 3.02 1. 92 I 1. 77 0.17 2.22 i 3.56 0.55 1. 46 0.45 ! 0.59 1.81 1. 72 0.66 j 0.46 1. 64 0.65 -0.18 -0.17 I 0.13 0.21 1. 29 -0.21 0.02 !I -0.07 0.67 -0.29 -0.35 !I -0.39 0.52 0 . 09 0.37 I 0.31 0.15 -1.50 1.93 I -1.17 -1.22 0.23 2.89 1 . 24 1. 78 -1.80 -1.73 -0.94 -2.39 -2.96 -0.02 -0.09 -0.10 I I| S 0.20 0.13 National EconomicTrends Interest Rates Percent 6 3 0 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7.5 - .................................... 4 .5 4.0 - ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ / ........................................ 3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y 30y Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500 Percent change from year ago 50 25 0 -2 5 -5 0 7 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change from year ago Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 - S 3»....................................................mm..... Digitized 8 for FRASER UationaìEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change at annual rate Dollars per barrel 4 - ................................................... 28 - ......................... 3- 2- 1995 1996 1997 Consumer Price Index 121 1992 1 1993 ' 1994 1 1995 1 1996 ' 1997 Consumption Chain Price Index Percent change Percent change at annual rate 0.5 - .................. -................... 4 - .............................................................. Excl. Food & Energy iyyo 1997 1995 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Percent change Percent change at annual rate 0.65 - ............................. Excl. Food & Energy I 1996 1997 1996 1997 | PPI (bar) 1995 Employment Cost Index 1996 1997 Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Percent change at annual rate 8- 6 - ....................................................................................... Benefits 6 —V......... 1995 9 National £conomic Trends Employment Percent change from year ago 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of population Percent of labor force - 58 55 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force 4.50 - m ss Weeks ...................................« ..... 8 » ................................................................ « .........................................................- 16 National EconomicTrends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands 600 - Thousands -6 0 T 1995 1996 1997 Change in Household Employment 1995 1996 1997 Labor Force and Population Thousands 1000 - .................. Percent change from year ago 2.5 - ................................................. -750 0.0 1995 1996 1997 I 1992 I 1993 I 1994 Unemployment Rate Help-Wanted Advertising Percent 6.0 - Index 1995 1996 1997 I 1995 I--------------1 1996 1997 Percent 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 11 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 - ............... mmmmt........................................... * -4 1 72 r..f 73 74 t.. i t 75 76 77 i 78 i .r .î.""T !.. i.. i.. i 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 i 87 i.. i.. r.“T .. i.. i.. i.. i.. i.. i.. 1 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago 0 -7 -2 0 72 i 73 T 74 r 75 \ î 76 i 77 78 t....... n ';- , ...i............................. i i i r r \ 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 1........ i........i 92 93 94 i 95 r 96 i 97 r ~ 14 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago of quarterly average 16 - -4 i 72 i..... i.....r 73 74 75 Percent 18- Digitized 12 for FRASER i 76 t 77 i 78 i 79 r ....i " 80 81 t ..... i......i.....i..... i 82 83 84 85 86 87 i 88 .. r ...... î........i........i........i........i........i 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Percent ........- 12 National EconomicTrends Real Disposable Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 2 - ........................................ ■2 -r.................................... ].................................... I.................................... I 1995 ' 1996 ........................................................... 2 1997 1 1992 1 1993 1 1994 Real Consumption Real Consumption Percent change 8 - ..................................................... Percent change 1.6 - ..................................................... 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 1.2 - 0.8 - 0.4 -I ll ; I II 8 IIIIIIl 1Ll! 1 . 0.0 - 0. 4 - II I !.■I ■ I ■0.8 -|........................ I.........................j................ 1995 1996 1997 Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 2.25 - ................. 9- Millions of ol vehicles, annual rate Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Percent change 20 - ...................................... 110 —■ 60 -T.................r................ ].................I................ I.................I................. I ' 1992 ' 1993 ' 1994 1995 1996 1997 - 16.0 Autos and light trucks •10 "I........................ ].........................I.............. 1995 1996 ' 1997 13 National EconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Percent change from year ago 25« -y* " f ........................................... IP!..... Real Residential Investment Percent change from year ago 60- 14 UationaìEconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change at annual rate Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 15 - ........................................ 30- -2 0 1995 1996 1997 1992 1 1993 1 1994 1 1995 Real Equipment Investment Real Nonresidential Investment Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 20 - 25 - ............................................... 1995 1996 1997 1995 Real Residential Investment Housing Starts Percent change at annual rate 20 - .................................................................................................. Millions, annual rate 1.6 - ..................................................... 1996 1 1996 ' 1997 1997 15 National EconomicTrends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 - Percent of GDP 1200 1000 25 800 600 400 Federal Outlays, 1994 Federal Receipts, 1994 Defense 22.70% Personal Income Net Interest 12.90% Social Security 20.24% Other 8.41% Corp. Profit 11.40% Medicare 10.50% Other 28.32% Medicaid Social Insurance 40.53% 5.33% State and Local Outlays, 1994 State and Local Receipts, 1994 Corp. Profit Education 37.66% Personal Income 3.15% 13.82% Income Property 20.16% Medical Care 17.32% Other 19.13% Social Insurai 7.73% Transportation 6.80% http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Safety 10.44% Federal Grants 20.99% NationaìEconomicTrends Gross Federai Debt Federal Deficit Percent of GDP Forcent of GDP 70 6 30 Change In Gross Federal Debt Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 6 150 4 0 2 -1 5 0 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Calendar Years State and Local Receipts 1980 1981 1982 Fiscal Years Federal Federal Expenditures Surplus or Deficit!-) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deficit)-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) 3 6 1 .4 3 0 7 .0 5 4 .4 5 6 1 .5 6 2 2 .5 -6 1 .0 5 1 7 .1 5 9 0 .9 -7 3 .8 3 9 0 .8 3 3 5 .4 5 5 .4 6 4 9 .3 70 7 .1 -5 7 .8 5 9 9 .3 6 7 8 .2 -7 9 .0 4 0 9 .0 3 5 7 .7 5 1 .3 6 4 6 .4 7 8 1 .0 -1 3 4 .6 6 1 7 .8 7 4 5 .8 -1 2 8 .0 1983 1984 4 4 3 .6 3 7 8 .8 6 4.8 6 7 1 .9 8 4 6 .3 -1 7 4 .4 6 0 0 .6 8 0 8 .4 -2 0 7 .8 4 9 2 .0 4 0 5 .1 86.9 7 4 6 .9 90 2 .9 -1 5 6 .0 6 6 6 .5 8 5 1 .8 -1 8 5 .4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5 2 8 .7 4 3 7 .8 90.9 81 1.3 9 7 4 .2 -1 6 2 .9 7 3 4 .1 9 4 6 .4 -2 1 2 .3 5 7 0 .6 4 7 5 .7 94.9 8 5 0 .1 10 27.6 -1 7 7 .5 7 6 9 .1 9 9 0 .3 -2 2 1 .2 5 9 4 .9 51 1.1 8 3 .8 9 3 7 .4 10 66.3 -1 2 8 .9 8 5 4 .1 1 0 0 3.9 -1 4 9 .8 6 3 1 .4 5 4 5 .5 85.9 9 9 7 .2 1 1 1 8 .5 -1 2 1 .3 9 0 9 .0 1064.1 -1 5 5 .2 6 8 1 .0 5 8 5 .9 95.1 1079.3 1 1 9 2 .7 - 1 13.4 9 9 0 .7 1 1 4 3 .2 -1 5 2 .5 1990 1991 1992 7 2 8 .9 6 4 8 .8 80.1 1 129 .8 1284.5 -1 5 4 .7 1031.3 1 2 5 2.5 -2 2 1 .2 7 8 4 .2 7 0 8 .4 75.8 1 149 .0 1345.0 -1 9 6 .0 1054.3 1 3 2 3.6 -2 6 9 .4 8 4 4 .3 7 5 8 .0 8 6 .3 1 198 .5 1479.4 -2 8 0 .9 1090.5 138 0.9 -2 9 0 .4 -2 5 5 .1 1993 1994 1995 1996 8 9 4 .4 8 0 7 .0 8 7 .4 1 2 7 5 .1 1525.7 -2 5 0 .6 1 1 5 3 .5 1408.7 9 4 9 .2 8 5 2 .3 9 6.9 1 374.8 1561.4 -1 8 6 .6 1257.7 1460.8 -2 0 3 .1 9 9 9 .0 8 9 5 .9 103.1 146 3.2 1637.6 -1 7 4 .4 1351.5 1 5 1 5.4 - 1 63.9 1 0 4 3.4 9 3 8 .0 1 0 5 .4 158 7.6 169 8.1 - 1 10.5 1452.8 1 5 6 0 .1 -1 0 7 .3 17 National Economic Tren ds Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars 10 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 Exchange Rates 100 X (Deutsche mark/US$) YenAJSS Index, March 1973 = 100 - 450 - 300 - 225 - 150 Goods Export Shares, 1996 Goods Import Shares, 1996 All Other 36.60% All Other 32.23% Mexico 9.28% Mexico Canada 21.93% Other OECD 14.26% Other OECD 9.62% Canada 19.41% 2.32% Japan 11.05% 18 Germany 3.84% France UK 2.36% 5.06% Germany 4.85% Japan 14.34% 3.61% National EconomicTrends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars 0 Percent change from year ago 25 - ...........................................-..... ■IIIIIIIIIII Goods and Services -5 -1 0 15 -20 1 1996 1995 1997 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 25 - ............................................-.... 20 - Exports 1995 1996 1997 —5 "I 1995 1996 1997 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Percent change at annual rate Germany United Kingdom 8 9— - 64 - 20 -2-1 1995 1996 1997 France Canada 8 6 4 20 -2 l 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 19 National EconomicTrends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent change from year ago Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 20 Percent National EconomicTrends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 4 - ................................................... -2 —4 — —4 T 1995 1996 1997 _6T 1995 1996 1997 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent 13 Percent .....- 75 Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80 60 40 20 0 -2 0 -4 0 21 National EconomicTrends Nominal GDP Real GDP Percent chanae Year Billions Annual rate ago of $ 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1995 1996 1997 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annua Year rate ago Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 6 2 4 4 .4 5 .5 6 2 4 4.4 4 2 2.7 62 3 7.4 4 1 2.5 6558.1 5.0 6 3 8 9.5 6 3 2.3 6 3 6 8.8 6 4 2.1 7 .0 0 1 6 9 4 7.0 5.9 6 6 1 0.741 3.5 6 5 5 1.2 4 7 2 .9 22 .10 2 7 2 6 5 .4 4.6 6 7 4 2.0 6 2 2.0 6 7 1 2.6 7 2 2.5 6 0 .55 2 7 6 3 6.0 5.1 6 9 2 8 .3 9 6 2.8 6 9 0 0.9 8 0 2.8 27.341 -2 .9 7 7 1 2 67 9 4.3 5.5 5.4 6 5 2 4.5 0 5 3 .0 3.1 647 3.0 2 9 1.2 2.8 53.061 32.301 691 1.4 7.1 6.2 6 6 0 0 .3 1 3 4 .7 3 .8 65 2 6.6 7 1 3.4 2 .9 7 5 .89 6 1 6 .64 4 3 4 6 9 8 6.5 4.4 6.3 662 9.4 7 4 1.8 3 .7 658 0.3 7 6 3.3 3.2 49 .66 2 15.28 3 7 0 9 5 .7 6.4 5.8 6 688.609 3 .6 3.3 6 6 2 4.8 4 8 2.7 2 .7 6 3 .59 0 2 4 .17 9 1 71 6 8 . 9 4.2 5.5 6703.721 0 .9 2.7 665 4.2 8 9 1.8 2.8 4 8 .47 9 53.061 2 3 4 7 2 0 9 .5 2.3 4.3 6 7 08.841 0 .3 1.6 6 6 8 5 .2 8 9 1.9 2.4 21 .63 8 75 .89 6 7 3 0 1.3 5 .2 4 .5 675 9.2 3 4 3 .0 2.0 6739.3 0 6 3.3 2 .4 1 7 .02 3 4 9 .66 2 73 8 1.9 4 .5 4.0 6 7 9 6.5 1 3 2 .2 1.6 6771.9 2 7 2 .0 2.2 22 .22 3 6 3 .59 0 1 7 4 6 7.5 4.7 4 .2 6 8 2 6.3 6 2 1.8 1.8 6814.9 6 6 2 .6 2.4 8.0 39 48.479 2 3 4 7 6 0 7.7 7.7 5.5 6 9 2 6.0 2 3 6 .0 3.2 6 9 0 2.2 9 0 5.2 3.2 21 .28 8 2 1 .63 8 7 6 7 6.0 3.6 5.1 6 9 4 3.8 2 0 1.0 2.7 6 9 0 5.0 3 4 0.2 2.5 37 .90 3 17.02 3 7 7 9 2.9 6.2 5.6 7 0 1 7 .3 7 9 4 .3 3.2 6981.6 9 2 4 .5 3.1 32 .92 2 2 2 .22 3 1 2 7 9 3 3 .6 7 .4 6 .2 710 1.6 1 7 4 .9 4.0 7 0 3 4.0 8 7 3 .0 3.2 63 .65 7 8 .0 3 9 8 0 0 4.8 3 .6 5 .2 713 9.7 0 8 2 .2 3.1 7 0 6 7.9 5 6 1.9 2 .4 6 6 .83 0 2 1 .28 8 Consumption Durables Consumption Private Rxed Investment Nonresidential Investment Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 1992 4 2 1 9.7 9 6 2 .8 4 8 8 .5 3 0 5 .8 7 8 3 .4 2 7 5.7 5 5 7 .8 6 9 1.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 4 3 4 3.5 6 3 2 .9 5 23.841 7.2 8 4 2 .7 7 2 7.6 6 0 0 .1 6 7 7.6 4 485.981 3 .3 5 6 1 .1 8 9 7.1 9 1 5 .5 3 6 8.6 6 4 8 .3 6 1 8.0 4 5 9 5 .2 7 3 2 .4 5 8 3 .5 9 8 4.0 9 6 2 .1 19 5.1 7 0 6 .5 1 3 9.0 4 7 1 4 .0 6 1 2.6 61 1 . 1 0 7 4 .7 1 0 4 1.6 9 9 8.3 7 7 1 .6 8 3 9.2 9.2 8 8 7 .7 9 5 3.2 9 .0 6 2 6 .1 9 1 0 .4 8 .4 1 1 .9 9.9 6 4 1 .2 0 9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 2 3 4 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annua rate ago 4 4 3 9.4 3 6 3 .8 3.6 5 50 .6 6 1 4 4 7 2 .2 2 4 3 .0 3.5 5 5 5 .7 9 6 3.8 7.0 9 1 3 .1 7 8 9 .9 7.8 4 4 9 8.2 1 8 2.3 3.0 5 61.741 4.3 6.0 9 2 2 .7 1 2 4 .2 9.3 6 5 3 .1 5 3 7.7 8.5 4 5 3 4.1 2 9 3.2 3.1 5 7 6 .5 6 3 1 1 .0 6.3 9 3 8 .4 6 7 7.0 6 .6 6 7 2 .8 9 0 1 2 .6 7.6 6 .4 1 4 5 5 1 .3 0 3 1.5 2.5 5 7 2 .2 3 0 -3 .0 3 .9 9 5 5 .8 2 0 7 .6 7.7 6 9 5 .6 7 4 1 4 .2 11.1 2 3 4 4 5 8 3 .4 5 8 2 .9 2.5 5 7 7 .7 0 6 3 .9 3 .9 9 5 4 .0 3 4 -0 .7 4 .5 7 0 5 .3 5 3 5.7 1 0 .0 4 6 1 2 .9 1 2 2.6 2.5 5 9 0 .7 5 5 9.3 5 .2 9 6 2 .3 1 5 3 .5 4 .3 7 0 8 .2 3 1 1.6 8.4 4 6 3 3 .4 6 3 1 .8 2.2 5 9 3 .7 0 1 2.0 3.0 9 7 6 .3 1 5 5 .9 4 .0 71 6 . 8 0 0 4 .9 6.5 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 9 .3 7 3 3.1 2.6 6 0 0 .6 6 2 4.8 5.0 100 1.5 3 3 1 0 .7 4 .8 7 3 6 .9 3 9 1 1.7 5 .9 4 7 1 2 .2 0 4 3.7 2.8 614 .7 7 1 9.7 6.4 103 5.6 8 3 14.4 8.6 7 5 9 .7 3 4 13.0 7.7 4 7 1 8 .1 9 6 0.5 2.3 6 1 1 .8 6 4 -1 .9 3.6 106 0.8 8 6 10.1 10.2 7 8 9 .2 9 0 16.5 1 1.4 4 7 5 6 .4 2 7 3.3 2 .7 6 17.131 3.5 3 .9 106 8.6 9 6 3.0 9.5 8 0 0 .7 7 1 5 .9 1 1.7 1 4 8 1 8.0 7 9 5.3 3.2 6 3 7 .7 6 6 14.1 6.2 107 9.0 0 6 3 .9 7.7 8 0 8 .9 3 2 4.1 9.8 2 4 8 2 7 .8 6 9 0.8 2 .5 6 2 8 .4 9 9 -5 .7 2.2 1 1 10 .88 4 12.4 7.3 8 3 7 .8 4 1 15.1 1 0 .3 22 Billions of 1992 $ Final Sales Percent chanae Annual Year ago rate UationaìEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Index ECI: Wages Employment Cost Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Benefits Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 1 1 1 .9 2.9 1 2 0 .5 5.5 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1992 1 0 0 .0 0 0 2.8 1 1 4 .3 3 .7 1993 1994 1 0 2 .6 4 3 2.6 1 1 8 .4 3.6 115 .2 2 .9 1 2 7 .0 5.4 1 0 5 .0 8 8 2 .4 1 2 2 .3 3.3 1 1 8 .5 2 .9 1 3 2 .0 4 .0 1995 1996 1 0 7 .7 6 3 2.5 1 2 5 .6 2.8 1 2 1 .9 2.9 1 3 5 .0 2 .2 1 1 0 .22 4 2.3 1 2 9 .2 2.8 1 2 5 .9 3.3 1 3 7 .4 1.8 1994 1995 1 2 1 0 4 .1 5 6 2 .5 2.3 1 2 0 .8 3.0 3.3 1 17.1 2.1 2.8 1 3 0 .3 4 .4 1 0 4 .7 3 6 2 .2 2.3 1 2 1 .8 3 .4 3.3 1 18.1 3 .5 3.1 1 3 1 .5 3 .7 4 .0 3 4 1 0 5 .3 9 1 2 .5 2.5 1 2 2 .8 3.3 3.3 1 1 9 .0 3.1 2 .9 1 3 2 .8 4.0 4 .0 1 0 6 .0 7 1 2 .6 2.5 1 2 3 .6 2 .6 3.1 1 1 9 .8 2 .7 2.8 1 3 3 .5 2.1 3 .6 1 2 1 0 6 .9 3 3 3.3 2.7 1 2 4 .4 2 .6 3.0 120 .6 2.7 3.0 133 .9 1.2 2 .8 1 0 7 .4 8 5 2.1 2.6 1 2 5 .2 2 .6 2.8 121 .5 3.0 2 .9 1 3 4 .6 2.1 2.4 1 0 8 .0 3 1 2.0 2.5 1 2 6 .0 2 .6 2.6 1 2 2 .4 3.0 2 .9 1 3 5 .3 2.1 1.9 1 0 8 .6 0 3 2.1 2.4 1 26 .9 2 .9 2.7 123 .2 2.6 2 .8 1 3 6 .0 2.1 1.9 1 0 9 .3 4 9 2.8 2.3 127 .7 2 .5 2.7 1 2 4 .4 4.0 3.2 1 3 6 .0 0.0 1 .6 1 0 9 .8 5 7 1.9 2.2 1 2 8 .8 3 .5 2 .9 3.0 1.8 1 10.588 2 .7 2.4 1 2 9 .7 2 .8 1 1 1.103 1.9 2.3 1 3 0 .6 2 .8 1 1 1.775 2.4 2.2 1 3 1 .4 2.5 2.9 1 12.173 1.4 2.1 1 3 2 .5 3.4 2.9 3 4 1996 1 2 3 4 1997 1 2 Billions of 1992 $ 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 2 125 .5 3.6 3.3 1 3 7 .0 2 .9 1 2 6 .4 2 .9 3 .3 1 3 7 .7 2.1 1.8 2.9 1 2 7 .4 3.2 3.4 1 3 8 .7 2 .9 2.0 128 .5 3.5 3 .3 1 3 8 .7 0.0 2.0 1 2 9 .7 3.8 3.3 1 3 9 .7 2 .9 2.0 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Exports Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ 4 .3 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago 6 3 9 .4 1 6 6 .6 6 6 8 .9 5 9 7.5 100 .0 3.2 1 0 0 .0 5.2 6 5 8 .1 8 3 2 .9 7 2 8 .4 0 9 8 .9 100.1 0.1 1 0 2 .2 2.2 7 1 2 .3 9 9 8.2 8 1 7 .0 2 6 1 2 .2 1 0 0 .6 0.5 1 0 4 .3 2.1 7 9 1 .2 1 3 11.1 8 9 0 .0 5 7 8 .9 100 .8 0.2 1 0 7 .6 3.2 85 7 .0 2 2 8.3 9 7 1 .4 6 9 9.1 101 .5 0.7 1 1 1.5 3.6 4.4 7 7 3 .6 3 8 7.6 1 0 .2 100 .3 -1 .6 0 .2 1 0 3 .7 2.7 2 .3 2.0 6 7 6 .0 2 9 -1 .8 7 0 4 .1 3 1 1 7 .7 6.7 8 0 8 .0 2 2 19.0 1 1.8 1 0 0 .5 0.8 0 .9 1 0 4 .0 1.2 3 4 7 2 2 .1 0 5 1 0 .6 1 1.7 8 3 3 .2 2 9 13.1 1 4 .2 1 0 0 .9 1.6 0 .8 1 0 4 .5 1.9 2.0 7 4 7 .3 3 0 1 4 .7 10.0 8 5 3 .1 9 7 9 .9 1 2 .3 1 0 1 .0 0 .4 0.3 1 0 5 .3 3.1 2 .2 1 2 7 6 0 .3 6 8 7.2 12.5 8 7 3 .8 6 1 10.0 1 3 .0 100 .5 -2 .0 0 .2 106.1 3.1 2.3 77 7 .4 4 7 9.3 10.4 8 9 0 .2 8 4 7.7 1 0 .2 100 .8 1.2 0.3 107.1 3.8 3 .0 3 4 8 0 2 .4 3 5 1 3 .5 11.1 8 9 5 .3 6 8 2.3 7.5 101 .2 1.6 0 .3 1 08.1 3.8 3 .4 8 2 4 .6 0 4 1 1.5 10.3 9 0 0 .7 2 0 2.4 5.6 1 0 0 .9 -1 .2 - 0 .1 10 9 .2 4.1 3.7 1 2 3 4 82 8 .1 7 8 1.7 8 .9 9 2 8 .9 6 3 13.1 6.3 101 .5 2.4 1.0 1 10.1 3.3 3.8 8 4 7 .4 4 4 9 .6 9.0 9 6 0 .0 4 3 14.1 7 .8 1 0 1 .6 0 .4 0.8 111.1 3.7 3 .7 85 1 .3 8 2 1.9 6.1 9 9 0 .2 4 0 1 3 .2 1 0 .6 101 .5 -0 .4 0 .3 1 12.0 3.3 3 .6 9 0 1 .0 7 1 25.5 9.3 100 6.6 2 3 6 .8 11.8 1 0 1 .8 1.2 0 .9 1 13.1 4.0 3 .6 1 2 9 2 2 .6 5 2 9 .9 1 1.4 1048.941 1 7 .9 1 2 .9 1 0 2 .5 2.8 1 .0 1 14.5 5.0 4.0 9 5 4 .1 17 14.4 12.6 1 1 0 1 .9 7 6 21.8 1 4 .8 23 National Economic Trends Nonfarm Payroll Employment Household Survey Employment Thousands Change 1995 1996 1997 Percent chanae Year Annual ago rate Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent chanae Annual Year Thousands Change rate ago Index Percent chanae Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 118488 775 0.7 108591 3 36 0.3 121.0 120259 1771 1.5 110707 2116 1.9 124.5 2.9 123067 2808 2.3 1 14145 3438 3.1 129.8 4.2 1 2 4 89 9 1833 1.5 117195 3051 2.7 1 3 3 .4 2.8 126705 1806 1.4 119517 2322 2.0 136.4 2.2 1 2 3 4 124924 519 1.7 2.4 116482 873 3.1 3.4 133.0 0.8 3.2 4.3 124711 -21 3 -0 .7 1.7 116937 455 1.6 2.9 132.9 -0.1 -0 .4 2.7 124820 109 0.4 1.3 117414 478 1.6 2.4 133.6 0.6 2.3 2.5 125142 322 1.0 0.6 117949 534 1.8 2.0 134.2 0.4 1.7 1.7 1 2 3 4 125693 551 1.8 0.6 118471 522 1.8 1.7 134.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 119248 778 2.7 2.0 136.1 1.3 5.5 2.5 1 2 1995 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.7 126381 688 2.2 1 2 7 04 2 661 2.1 1.8 119898 649 2.2 2.1 137.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 1 2 7 70 5 664 2.1 2.0 120452 555 1.9 2.1 138.1 0.8 3.1 2.9 1 2 8 72 8 1023 3.2 2.4 121138 686 2.3 2.3 139.5 1.0 4.1 3.8 129462 734 2.3 2.4 121856 717 2.4 2.2 140.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 124804 271 2.6 1.7 117142 78 0.8 2.5 133.6 0.5 5.5 2.6 12 4 72 9 -7 5 -0 .7 1.2 1 17465 323 3.4 2.4 133.4 -0.1 -1 .8 2.5 12 4 9 2 7 198 1.9 1.1 117636 171 1.8 2.3 133.9 0.4 4.6 2.4 1.8 12 5 2 3 5 308 3.0 1.0 117775 139 1.4 2.2 134.4 0.4 4.6 125124 -1 11 -1.1 0.5 117951 176 1.8 2.0 134.3 -0.1 -0 .9 1.9 12 5 0 6 8 -5 6 -0 .5 0.3 118120 169 1.7 1.9 133.9 -0 .3 -3 .5 1.4 1996 Jan Feb Mar 125311 243 2.4 0.4 118058 -6 2 -0 .6 1.6 132.5 -1 .0 -1 1 .8 -0.8 1.9 2.0 Apr May Jun 12 5 7 0 6 395 3.8 0.6 118550 492 5.1 1.7 135.1 2.0 26.3 12 6 0 6 2 3 56 3.5 0.8 118804 254 2.6 1.8 135.4 0.2 2.7 126125 63 0.6 0.9 118966 162 1.6 1.8 135.1 -0 .2 -2 .6 1.0 126428 303 2.9 1.5 119263 297 3.0 2.1 135.7 0.4 5.5 2.9 126590 162 1.5 1.7 119516 253 2.6 2.1 137.6 1.4 18.2 3.5 Jul Aug Sep 12 6 8 8 9 299 2.9 1.7 119691 175 1.8 2.2 136.1 -1.1 -1 2 .3 1.9 126988 99 0.9 1.8 119983 292 3.0 2.1 137.1 0.7 9.2 2.8 127248 2 60 2.5 1.9 120019 36 0.4 2.0 137.9 0.6 7.2 3.0 Oct Nov Dec 12 7 6 1 7 369 3.5 1.9 120248 229 2.3 2.1 137.2 -0 .5 -5 .9 2.1 127644 27 0.3 2.0 120450 202 2.0 2.1 137.9 0.5 6.3 2.7 127855 21 1 2.0 2.2 120659 209 2.1 2.1 139.1 0.9 1 1.0 3.9 1997 Jan Feb Mar 128580 725 7.0 2.6 120909 250 2.5 2.4 138.2 -0 .6 -7 .5 4.3 12 8 43 0 -15 0 -1 .4 2.2 121162 253 2.5 2.2 140.0 1.3 16.8 3.6 129175 7 45 7.2 2.5 121344 182 1.8 2.1 140.2 0.1 1.7 3.5 Apr May Jun 129384 209 2.0 2.6 121671 327 3.3 2.3 139.6 -0 .4 -5 .0 3.3 1 2 9 63 9 255 2.4 2.5 121834 163 1.6 2.2 140.0 0.3 3.5 3.2 129364 -2 7 5 -2 .5 2.2 122062 228 2.3 2.1 140.6 0.4 5.3 2.2 Jul 129708 344 3.2 2.2 122378 31 6 3.2 2.2 139.9 -0 .5 -5 .8 2.8 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal24 Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Retail Sales Unempl. Rate 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1997 1 2 3 4 Billions of dollars Industrial Production Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate Percent chanae ago Index Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate Year ago Treasury Yields 3-m o 1 0 -y r 7.01 7.5 1 9 4 4 .6 0 5 4.8 100.0 00 3.2 3.43 6.9 2071.178 6.5 103.3 66 3.4 3.00 5 .8 6 6.1 2224.913 7.4 108.5 58 5 .0 4.25 7 .0 8 5.6 2326.536 4.6 1 12.109 3.3 5.49 6 .5 8 5.4 2439.841 4.9 1 15.198 2.8 5.01 6 .4 4 5.5 5 7 3 .1 3 7 0.2 0.8 5.6 1 1 1.764 1.0 3.9 5.1 5 .7 4 7 .4 8 5.6 5 7 8 .6 8 0 1.0 3.9 5.2 1 1 1.561 -0 .2 -0 .7 3.3 5.60 6.62 5.7 5 8 5 .1 4 6 1.1 4.5 4.5 1 12.441 0.8 3.2 3.0 5.37 6.32 5.6 5 8 9 .5 7 3 0.8 3.1 3.1 1 12.671 0.2 0 .8 1.8 5.26 5.89 5.6 6 0 0 .4 8 4 1.9 7.6 4.8 1 13.128 0.4 1.6 1.2 4 .93 5.91 5.4 6 0 9 .3 5 7 1.5 6.0 5.3 1 14.844 1.5 6.2 2.9 5 .0 2 6 .72 1 2 3 4 5.3 61 1.040 0.3 1.1 4.4 1 15.774 0.8 3.3 3.0 5 .1 0 6 .78 5.3 6 1 8 .9 6 0 1.3 5.3 5.0 1 17.048 1.1 4.5 3.9 4.98 6 .3 4 1 2 5.3 6 3 5 .5 9 7 2.7 1 1.2 5.8 1 18.326 1.1 4.4 4.6 5 .0 6 6.56 4.9 6 2 9 .5 4 4 -1 .0 -3 .8 3.3 1 19.576 1.1 4.3 4.1 5 .0 5 6.70 1995 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1996 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 Jan Feb Mar 5.7 1 9 4 .3 1 5 -0.1 -1 .2 5.3 1 1 1.716 -0 .0 -0 .2 2.4 5.42 6 .2 8 5.7 1 9 5 .7 5 2 0.7 9.2 4.5 1 12.603 0.8 10.0 3.1 5.40 6 .49 5.7 1 95.0 79 -0 .3 -4 .0 3.8 1 13.003 0.4 4.3 3.4 5.28 6 .20 5.5 1 9 4 .8 6 5 -0.1 -1 .3 2.3 1 12.522 -0 .4 -5 .0 2.3 5.28 6 .0 4 5.6 1 9 6 .7 0 2 0.9 1 1.9 3.1 1 12.704 0.2 2.0 1.9 5 .3 6 5 .9 3 5.6 1 9 8 .0 0 6 0.7 8.3 3.8 1 12.788 0.1 0.9 1.1 5 .1 4 5.71 -0.1 5.7 1 9 7 .7 1 4 -1 .8 2.6 1 12.361 -0 .4 -4 .4 0.4 5 .0 0 5.65 5.5 2 0 1 .0 8 5 1.7 22.5 6.1 113.7 82 1.3 16.3 1.9 4 .8 3 5.81 5.5 2 0 1 .6 8 5 0 .3 3.6 5.6 1 13.241 -0 .5 -5 .6 1.4 4 .9 6 6 .27 5.5 2 0 2 .4 9 6 0 .4 4.9 6.0 1 14.284 0.9 1 1.6 2 .6 4.95 6.51 5.5 2 0 4 .1 7 7 0.8 10.4 5.8 1 14.782 0.4 5.4 2.9 5 .0 2 6 .7 4 5.3 2 0 2 .6 8 4 -0 .7 -8 .4 4.2 1 15.466 0.6 7.4 3.3 5.09 6.91 5.4 203.291 0.3 3.7 4.6 1 15.495 0.0 0.3 3 .4 5.15 6 .8 7 5.2 2 0 3 .0 3 6 -0.1 -1 .5 3.7 1 15.848 0.3 3.7 2.9 5.05 6 .6 4 5.2 2 0 4 .7 1 3 0.8 10.4 4.9 1 15.978 0.1 1.4 2.6 5.09 6 .83 5.2 2 0 6 .2 7 7 0.8 9.6 5.9 1 16.231 0.2 2.6 3 .3 4.99 6.53 5.3 2 0 5 .7 8 9 -0 .2 -2 .8 4.6 1 17.216 0.8 10.7 4 .0 5 .0 3 6 .20 5.3 2 0 6 .8 9 4 0.5 6.6 4.5 1 17.697 0.4 5.0 4.4 4.91 6.30 5.4 2 1 0 .2 3 3 1.6 21.2 6.3 1 17.765 0.1 0.7 4.8 5.03 6.58 4.0 5.01 6.42 4.9 5 .1 4 6.69 5.3 2 1 3 .0 2 2 1.3 17.1 5.9 1 18.366 0.5 6.3 1 18.846 0.4 5.0 5.2 2 1 2 .3 4 2 -0 .3 -3 .8 5.3 4.9 Apr May Jun 2 0 9 .9 3 4 -1.1 -12 .8 3.7 1 19.302 0.4 4.7 4.4 5 .1 6 6.89 4.8 209.31 1 -0 .3 -3 .5 2.5 1 19.539 0.2 2.4 4.1 5 .05 6.71 5 .0 2 1 0 .2 9 9 0 .5 5.8 3.8 1 19.886 0.3 3.5 3.8 4.93 6.49 Jul 4.8 5 .05 6.22 25 National EconomicTrends consumer rrice moex Consumer Price Index Index 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1997 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 rroaucer rricemaex less Food and Energy Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Year to date Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year Index quarterly rate ago Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1.2 14 0 .4 3.0 147.5 3.7 123.2 144.6 3.0 152.4 3.3 124.7 1.2 148.3 2.6 156.7 2.8 125.6 0.7 152.5 2.8 161.4 3.0 127.9 1.9 157.0 2.9 165.8 2 .7 131.3 2 .6 151.0 0.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 159.6 0.8 3.3 3.0 3.3 127.1 0.7 3.0 1.7 152.1 0.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 161.0 0.8 3.4 3.0 3.4 127.6 0.4 1.7 2.0 152.9 0.5 2.1 2.6 2.7 162.0 0.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 128.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 153.9 0.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 163.1 0.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 129.0 0.7 2.9 2.2 155.1 0.8 3.3 2.8 3.3 164.2 0.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 129.9 0.7 3.0 2.2 1 56.4 0.8 3.4 2.8 3.4 165.3 0.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 130.9 0.7 2.9 2.5 1 57.5 0.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 166.3 0.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 131.6 0.6 2.3 2.8 1 58.8 0 .8 3.3 3.2 3.2 167.4 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 132.9 1.0 3.9 3.0 1 2 1 59.7 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 168.3 0.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 132.7 -0 .2 -0 .6 2.1 160.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 1.7 169.5 0.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 131.3 -1 .0 -4.1 0.3 1995 Jun 1 5 2 .5 0.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 161.3 0.2 2.3 2.9 3.4 127.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 Jul Aug Sep 152.6 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.6 161.6 0.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 127.9 0 .2 1.9 1.8 153.0 0.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 162.0 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.2 127.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 153.2 0.1 1.6 2.5 2.6 162.4 0.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 128.3 0.3 3.8 1.8 153.7 0.3 4.0 2.7 2.7 162.9 0.3 3.8 3.1 3.3 1 28.5 0 .2 1.9 2.4 153.8 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.5 163.1 0.1 1.5 3.0 3.1 128.8 0.2 2.8 2.1 154.1 0.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 163.4 0.2 2.2 3.0 3.0 129.6 0.6 7.7 2.2 Oct Nov Dec 1996 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 154.7 0 .4 4.8 2.7 4.8 163.8 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 129.7 0.1 0.9 2.2 155.1 0.3 3.1 2.7 4.0 164.2 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 1 29.7 0 .0 0.0 2.0 155.6 0.3 3.9 2.8 4.0 164.6 0.2 3.0 2.8 3.0 130.4 0 .5 6.7 2.4 156.1 0.3 3.9 2.8 3.9 164.9 0.2 2.2 2.7 2 .8 130.6 0.2 1.9 2.4 156.5 0.3 3.1 2.9 3.8 165.3 0.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 130.8 0.2 1.9 2.4 156.7 0.1 1.5 2.8 3.4 165.6 0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 131.2 0.3 3.7 2.7 157.1 0.3 3.1 2.9 3.4 166.0 0.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 131.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 157.4 0.2 2.3 2.9 3.2 166.2 0.1 1.5 2 .6 2.6 131.6 0.3 3.7 2.9 157.9 0.3 3.9 3.1 3.3 166.7 0.3 3.7 2.6 2.7 132.0 0.3 3.7 2.9 158.3 0 .3 3.1 3.0 3.3 167.0 0.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 132.5 0.4 4.6 3.1 158.8 0.3 3.9 3.3 3.3 167.4 0.2 2.9 2.6 2.7 132.7 0.2 1.8 3.0 159.2 0 .3 3.1 3.3 3.3 167.7 0.2 2.2 2 .6 2.6 1 3 3 .4 0.5 6.5 2.9 1 59.4 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.5 167.9 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.4 133.0 -0 .3 -3 .5 2 .5 1 59.8 0.3 3.1 3.0 2.3 168.3 0.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 132.6 -0 .3 -3 .5 2.2 159.9 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.8 168.7 0.2 2.9 2.5 2.4 132.4 -0 .2 -1 .8 1.5 1 60.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.5 1 69.2 0.3 3.6 2.6 2.7 131.6 -0 .6 -7 .0 0.8 160.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.4 169.5 0.2 2.1 2.5 2.6 131.2 -0 .3 -3 .6 0 .3 1 60.3 0.1 1.5 2.3 1.4 169.7 0.1 1.4 2.5 2.4 131.1 -0.1 -0 .9 - 0.1 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component Xt to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter / is 100 x [(1 + (Xt - X,.])/GDPt.i)4 - 1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of the index plus the percent change in the index. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarrn business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption o f government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa tion per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac ity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.
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