Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1997
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
June 1997 The Unemployment Rate: A Reliable Statistic? The release of the monthly unemployment rate causes markets to react and analysts to ponder the health of the economy. Others assign an even more important role to the unemployment rate, believing that if it drops below some crucial point a surge in inflation is inevitable. But how reliable is the unemployment rate as an economic indicator? While low unemployment rates are generally associ ated with a strong economy, and high unemployment rates with a weak economy, the month-to-month fluctu ations may indicate little about the economy’s underly ing strength. The unemployment rate doesn’t measure the change in the number of individuals without a job; instead, it measures the number of unemployed individuals as a fraction of the labor force. The labor force consists of individuals 16 and over who currently have a job (the employed) or do not have a job but are actively seeking work (the unemployed). Individuals who do not have jobs and have not looked for work in the past four weeks are not considered part of the labor force. The labor force has increased over time, with its growth determined primarily by the growth of the popu lation. In any particular month, however, the labor force may be rising or falling as individuals decide to enter and exit. People may exit the labor force because they no longer want jobs, are retiring, are returning to school or are raising children. Or they may have become discour aged looking for work and stopped searching. During economic contractions, the number of dis couraged job seekers is likely to increase and more indi viduals are likely to delay entry into the labor force, through additional schooling, for example. During eco nomic expansions the opposite is likely to happen. Discouraged individuals may notice more help-wanted signs and decide to re-enter the labor force. If job prospects are good, graduating students may decide to forego further education and enter the labor force. While surges in the labor force may indicate a strong economy, the number of unemployed will actually rise if the entrants do not immediately find jobs. After all, an individual’s status switches from not being in the labor force to being unemployed by merely looking for a job. Thus, these jumps in the labor force are often associated with increases in the unemployment rate. Then, as the entrants find jobs, the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate will decline. The surge in the labor force in January of 1996 fits this pattern, as shown in the graph. In other periods, an initial surge in the labor force is followed by a sharp decline, with unemployment also exhibiting this pattern, as in March-May of 1995. One possible explanation is that individuals entering the labor market leave if they do not quickly find a job. Furthermore, declines in the unemployment rate associated with declines in the labor force, as in April 1997, are generally reversed when the labor force resumes its rise. In summary, although the unemployment rate is an important indicator of the strength of the economy, its monthly movements need to be interpreted with care. Specifically, one needs to look at the underlying factors driving the changes. — Patricia S. Pollard Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System Tabi eofContents Page 3 Econom y at a glance 4 O utput and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 C onsum er spending 14 Investment spending 16 G overnm ent revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on June 2, 1997. 2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter f is: For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. National EconomicTrends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate Percent change 6 0.5 - .................. - ............................................................................................... 0.4 — 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1 0.0 1994 Industrial Production interest Rates Percent change Percent 1.8 - 1.2 - 0.6 - 1995 1996 1997 ................................................................... Jj 0.0 V rn ■°-6 1 ....................... i....................... I........................r............... 2 1.................... 1.....................1.................... 1.............. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate 1994 1995 1996 1997 Thousands 600 - 1994 1995 1996 1997 1996 1997 Percent of labor force 7.0 - 500 400 300 200 100 tin 0 •10° T .......................r....................... r....................... r............... 1994 1995 1996 1997 4.5 -| 1994 1995 3 National EconomicTrends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 8 Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 2 -1 -2 4 for FRASER Digitized UationaiEconomicTrends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 0 - ..................................... 8 -> - 1995 1996 1997 96:1 Industrial Production and NAPM Index Percent change 1.8 - .................................... J Advance Preliminary Final 96:2 96:3 96:4 97:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index Percent change at annual rate 8- ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1995 1996 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change 4 - ................... Hours 35.0 — 33.5 -[ ■ 1995 1996 1997 1997 Real Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 dollars 80 - ............................ Manufacturing and trade 1.46 - .............................. 5 National EconomicTrends Percent change at annual rate 10 — 95Q2 95Q3 95Q4 96Q1 B a s a Consumption Imports 96Q2 Exports I I Inventories 96Q3 r 96Q4 i Government 97Q1 — I..«. Real GDP V // A Investment Contributions to Real!3DP Growt h Rate 1995 2nd 3rd 4th Real GDP 0.75 3.81 0.26 Final Sales 2.11 3.56 -1 .4 2 Change in Inventory Consumption Fixed Investment Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Net Exports Exports Imports Residual 6 for FRASER Digitized 1996 1st 1997 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 2.00 4.68 2.10 3.82 5.77 1.35 3.04 4.15 0.47 4.89 3.77 0.22 -1 .1 6 -1 .0 1 0.60 1.60 -0 .9 8 1.97 2.11 1.65 0.71 2.36 2.28 0.34 2.28 3.84 -0 .2 3 0.85 0.51 1.47 1.05 1.54 0.53 1.47 0.36 0.51 0.26 1.19 0.41 1.80 0.61 1.25 -0 .5 6 0.34 0.24 0.28 0.61 -0 .2 2 -0 .0 7 0.23 0.15 -0 .1 1 -0 .8 1 0.30 1.39 -0 .1 2 -0 .1 6 0.01 -0 .1 0 -0 .4 1 -0 .9 6 0.40 0.62 -0 .2 4 -0 .3 7 -0 .2 1 0.25 0.31 0.17 -0 .1 1 0.76 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.07 1.19 0.99 -1 .1 2 -0 .6 3 -1 .3 1 2.27 -1 .6 2 0.65 1.18 1.19 0.21 0.66 -0 .1 0 2.73 1.33 -0 .5 8 0.00 -0 .2 1 -1 .3 3 -1 .2 8 -1 .2 1 -0 .4 5 -2 .9 2 0.06 -0 .0 2 0.03 0.02 -0 .0 3 0.01 -0 .1 5 0.03 National EconomicTrends Interest Rates Percent 18 12 Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7.5 - 4.5 - 3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y 30y Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500 Percent change from year ago 50 25 0 -2 5 -5 0 7 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change from year ago 12 - l 72 I 73 74 75 76 i— i— i— r* i —i— i— i— i— i 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 i— i— i— r~“T— i— i— i— r 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago 15 - 01 72 I 73 1 74 f 75 1 76 I 77 I 78 I 79 I 80 I 81 I 82 i 83 Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago 20 15 10 5 Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 15 Digitized 8 for FRASER I 84 I 85 I 86 I 87 I 88 I 89 I “1 90 91 I 92 I 93 I 94 I 95 I 96 I 97 UationalEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Crude Oil Price Percent change at annual rate 4 - .......................................... Dollars per barrel 28 - ...................... Mulini 1995 1996 1997 12 - [ ........................ T........................ T........................ T.........................T........................I 1992 1 1993 1994 1995 1996 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price Index Percent change Percent change at annual rate 4 - .......................................... 0.5 - ......................... -........... Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Percent change Percent change at annual rate 1997 j 0.65 - Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Percent change at annual rate 8 5 - .......................... -.................. - ............................................................................................... Benefits 6 - V ............ ......................... 9 Nat iona IEconomic Tren ds Employment Percent change from year ago 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force 15 - ......... - -o m w ............................... » M Percent of population ......... .....-...................................... mm............. ...................................... - 70 Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force «asm* 4.50 - ....... ............................. « ..... H Weeks .......................................................... mm......................................................- 1 6 NationalEconomicTrends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands 600 - ........ Thousands 60 - ......... 40- 1995 1996 1997 Labor Force and Population Change in Household Employment Percent change from year ago 2.5 - ............................................. Thousands 1250 - ........ 1000 - 0.0 1995 1996 1997 I------------ 1 1992 1993 I 1994 Unemployment Rate Help-Wanted Advertising Percent Index 6.0 I------------1--------1995 1996 1997 Percent - 4 5 1 ............................. r............................. r............................. i 1995 1996 1997 55 T 1992 I 1993 I 1994 I 1995 I 1996 I 4.5 1997 11 National EconomicTrends Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Real Consumption Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago Retail Sales Percent change from year ago of quarterly average Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income Percent 12 for FRASER Digitized Percent National Economicïïends Real Disposable Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 2 - ............................................ - I - III lui ■I 1 II ■»I r ll-ll l -1 n - - 2 -i............................... 1............................... 1............................... 1 1995 1996 1997 Real Consumption Percent change 8 - .............................................................. 2 l 1992 T 1993 1 1994 T 1995 1 1996 1 1997 1 Real Consumption Percent change 1.6 - ........................................................ 1.2 - Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change Percent change 2.25 - 9 - ................. Millions of ol vehicles, annual rate - 16.0 Autos and light trucks ■1.50 -|................................. I.................................. I..................................I 1995 ' 1996 ' 1997 Consumer Sentiment (II. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Percent change 110 — 30 - 60 -I................ I................I................ t................ I................I............. 1992 ' 1993 1994 1995 ' 1996 1997 -2 0 1995 f 1996 1 1997 ' 13 National EconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP 22 - 20 18 16 14- 1210 1 !.... 72 73 Real Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago 24 - ............ ............... 18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -1 8 I Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Percent change from year ago 5 0 -5 -10 -1 5 Real Residential Investment Percent change from year ago 40 20 0 ■20 -40 Digitized 14 for FRASER 97 National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP ....8 - 6 - 4 2 ............. - - 0 2 ...r -4 97 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change at annual rate Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30 - ...................................................................... 12 - ................................................................................................... -1 0 - 20 -|.............. |............... |............... |............... j............... |............... | 1992 1993 1994 Real Equipment Investment Real Nonresidential Investment F’ercent change at annual rate 25 - ............................................. 20 1995 1996 1997 Percent change at annual rate - ...................................................................................................................................... - 5 ~i............................... 1............................... T.................... 1995 1996 Real Residential Investment 1997 Housing Starts Percent change at annual rate Millions, annual rate 20 1.6 - ............................................................... - 15 National EconomicTrends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1992 dollars Percent of GDP 35 - ......i 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 Federal Receipts, 1994 Federal Outlays, 1994 Defensa 22.61% Personal Income 39.54% Social Other 7.94% Corp. Profit 11.95% Social Insurance 40.57% 5.31% State and Local Outlays, 1994 Education 37.66% State and Local Receipts, 1994 Personal Income 13.28% Corp. Profit 3.27% Income Property .67% Medical Care 17.32% Other 9.69% Other 19.13% Transportation 6.80% Digitized 16for FRASER Safety 10.44% Social Insurance 7.36% Federal Grants 20.70% 94 96 98 HationaìEconomicTrends Gross Federai Debt Federal Deficit Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 Change in Gross Federal Debt 96 Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Billions of dollars, fiscal years Percent of GDP 300 6 150 4 0 2 -150 72 74 76 78 80 Government Budgets Billions of dollars National Income Accounts Unified Budget Fiscal Years Calendar Years Surplus or Deficit(-) Receipts 307.0 54.4 561.5 390.8 335.4 55.4 649.3 409.0 357.7 51.3 646.4 Receipts Expenditures 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 361.4 Federal Federal State and Local Surplus or Deficits Receipts 622.5 -6 1 .0 517.1 590.9 707.1 -5 7 .8 599.3 678.2 -7 9 .0 781.0 -1 3 4 .6 617.8 745.8 -1 2 8 .0 Expenditures Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) -7 3 .8 443.6 378.8 64.8 671.9 846.3 -1 7 4 .4 600.6 808.4 -2 0 7 .8 492.0 405.1 86.9 746.9 902.9 -1 5 6 .0 666.5 851.8 -1 8 5 .4 528.7 437.8 90.9 81 1.3 974.2 -1 6 2 .9 734.1 946.4 -2 1 2 .3 570.6 475.7 94.9 850.1 1027.6 -1 7 7 .5 769.1 990.3 -2 2 1 .2 594.9 51 1.1 83.8 937.4 1066.3 -1 2 8 .9 854.1 1003.9 -1 4 9 .8 1064.1 -1 5 5 .2 -1 5 2 .5 631.4 545.5 85.9 997.2 1 1 18.5 -1 2 1 .3 9 0 9 .0 681.0 585.9 95.1 1079.3 1 192.7 -1 13.4 990.7 1 143.2 728.9 648.8 80.1 1 129.8 1284.5 -1 5 4 .7 1031.3 1252.5 -2 2 1 .2 784.2 708.4 75.8 1 149.0 1345.0 -1 9 6 .0 1054.3 1323.6 -2 6 9 .4 844.3 758.0 86.3 1 198.5 1479.4 -2 8 0 .9 1090.5 1380.9 -2 9 0 .4 1275.3 1530.9 -2 5 5 .6 1 153.5 1408.7 -2 5 5 .1 99.8 1377.0 1567.3 -1 9 0 .3 1257.7 1460.8 -2 0 3 .1 897.1 946.4 802.2 846.6 94.9 996.1 901.1 95.0 1478.4 1640.1 -1 6 1 .7 1351.5 1515.4 - 1 63.9 1044.0 951.0 93.0 1575.0 1702.1 -1 2 7 .1 1452.8 1560.1 -1 0 7 .3 17 HationaiEconomicTrends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars 10 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 Exchange Rates 100 x (Deutsche mark/US$) YenAJSS - 450 Index, March 1973-100 160 - 375 140 - 300 120 - 225 100 - 150 80 Goods Export Shares, 1996 Goods Import Shares, 1996 All Other 36.42% All Other 32.32% Mexico 9.28% Mexico Canada 21.85% Other O EC D 14.26% Canada 19.58% Other O E C D 9.64% 2.33% Japan 11.04% 18 Germ any 3.84% France U K 2.36% 5.05% Germ any 4.87% Japan 14.41% 3.61% National EconomicTrends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year 25 - .................................... Goods and Services -5 - - lll'lll 10- -1 5 - Goods -2 0 T 1995 1996 1997 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 0 25 - ............................................ 20- 15- Exports 10 — 5— Imports 0— 1994 1995 1996 “ 5T 1995 1996 1997 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Percent change at annual rate 8- Germany United Kingdom 1994 1995 1996 20- 19 National Economic Trends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent change from year ago 15 — Percent "c~~ ......................................... ................................................................................................. -¿mg.........................................................— 90 10 - ............... \ ............ / .................. \ ___ Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 7.5 2.5 -2 .5 -5.0 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ■ X ................... \ .......^ — ........................... - so National Economicïïends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 4 - .................................................... 6- — 2— -2 —4 — —4 1997 1996 1995 1995 1997 1996 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent Percent Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80 ■40 -|...... 1......T * ...I ..... r.......I...... f .......I.......j * ...I...'* T ™ 1 ...... 1 ...... 1...... 1 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 I 87 I ......f ...... 1...T T ..... I 88 89 90 91 92 7........ 1 93 94 ! 95 T~ 96 1 97 I 21 National EconomicTrends Nominal GDP Billions of $ 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1 2 3 4 Real GDP Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Billions Of 1992 $ Final Sales Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annua ago rate Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 6244.4 5.5 6244.442 2.7 6237.441 2.5 6553.0 4.9 6386.128 2.3 6365.496 2.1 -2 .9 7 7 7.001 6935.7 5.8 6608.431 3.5 6550.685 2.9 19.010 7253 .8 4.6 6742.186 2.0 6708.867 2.4 58.930 7576.1 4.4 6906.837 2.4 6892.123 2.7 3 2.694 6776.1 5.3 5.2 6508.457 2.5 2.9 6467.727 1.2 2.5 40.780 18.467 6890.5 6.9 5.9 6587.449 4.9 3.6 6514.945 3.0 2.8 7 4.738 20.716 6993.1 6.1 6.4 6644.836 3.5 3.9 6582.060 4.2 3.3 64.597 19.398 7083.2 5.3 5.9 6692.855 2.9 3.5 6638.134 3.5 2.9 5 5.604 17.460 1995 1 2 3 4 7149.8 3.8 5.5 6700.224 0.4 2.9 6647.366 0.6 2.8 53.728 40.780 7204.9 3.1 4.6 6712.713 0.7 1.9 6682.420 2.1 2.6 2 9.864 74.738 7309.8 6.0 4.5 6775.782 3.8 2.0 6741.364 3.6 2.4 33.493 64.597 7350.6 2.3 3.8 6780.153 1.3 6764.193 1.4 1.9 13.692 5 5.604 1996 1 2 3 4 7426.8 4.2 3.9 6813.810 2.0 1.7 6815.153 3.0 2.5 -3 .4 7 3 53.728 7545.1 6.5 4.7 6892.1 16 4.7 2.7 6884.700 4.1 3.0 6.669 29.864 7 616.3 3.8 4.2 6928.084 2.1 2.2 6892.747 0.5 2.2 34.135 33.493 7716.1 5.3 5.0 6993.338 3.8 3.1 6975.892 4.9 3.1 17.107 13.692 1997 1 7 867.7 8.1 5.9 7092.125 5.8 4.1 7040.823 3.8 3.3 51.382 -3 .4 7 3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1 2 3 4 Private F xed Investment Durables Consumption Corisumption Nonresidential Investment Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 488.530 5.8 783.427 5.7 557.869 1.9 524.075 7.3 836.355 6.8 593.645 6.4 3.1 561.971 7.2 921.083 10.1 652.054 9.8 2.3 579.826 3.2 975.923 6.0 714.307 9.5 611.390 5.4 1042.1 17 6.8 766.837 7.4 Percent chanae Year Annual ago rate Billions of 1992 $ 42 19.796 2.8 43 39.512 2.8 4473.153 4577.846 4690.672 2.5 Billions of 1992 $ 0.3 Billions of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 4420.532 2.8 3.1 549.591 5.8 8.6 892.417 9.0 9.4 6 28.545 7.3 8.8 4458.721 3.5 3.2 555.429 4.3 6.9 911.431 8.8 1 1.0 6 39.480 7.1 9.1 4489.357 2.8 3.0 563.089 5.6 6.5 930.813 8.8 1 1.4 660.472 13.8 1 1.4 4523.959 3.1 3.1 579.768 12.4 7.0 949.686 8.4 8.7 679.713 12.2 10.1 1995 1 2 3 4 4534.762 1.0 2.6 566.490 -8 .9 3.1 969.499 8.6 8.6 704.449 15.4 12.1 4569.870 3.1 2.5 576.187 7.0 3.7 965.676 -1 .6 6.0 7 10.480 3.5 1 1.1 4597.341 2.4 2.4 589.089 9.3 4.6 979.973 6.1 5.3 718 .9 5 4 4.9 8.9 4609.410 1.1 1.9 587.540 - 1 .0 1.3 988.536 3.5 4.1 723.339 2.5 6.4 1996 1 2 3 4 4649.076 3.5 2.5 599.202 8.2 5.8 1013.292 10.4 4.5 743.478 11.6 5.5 4687.603 3.4 2.6 615.621 11.4 6.8 1031.100 7.2 6.8 750.512 3.8 5.6 4693.468 0.5 2.1 611.605 - 2 .6 3.8 1057.485 10.6 7.9 78 1 .3 7 4 17.5 8.7 4732.543 3.4 2.7 619.134 5.0 5.4 1066.589 3.5 7.9 79 1 .9 8 4 5.5 9.5 1997 1 4798.710 5.7 3.2 647.1 12 19.3 8.0 1092.215 10.0 7.8 8 13.808 1 1.5 9.5 22 National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Index Employment Cost Index Percent chance Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago ECI: Wages Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1992 100.000 2.8 114.3 3.7 111.9 2.9 120.5 1993 1994 102.617 2.6 118.4 3.6 115.2 2.9 127.0 5.4 104.958 2.3 122.3 3.3 118.5 2.9 132.0 4.0 1995 1996 1994 1995 1997 107.565 2.5 125.6 2.8 121.9 2.9 135.0 2.2 109.875 2.1 129.2 2.8 125.9 3.3 137.4 1.8 1 2 104.149 2.9 2.3 120.8 3.0 3.3 117.1 2.1 2.8 130.3 4.4 4.3 104.632 1.9 2.2 121.8 3.4 3.3 118.1 3.5 3.1 131.5 3.7 4.0 3 4 105.248 2.4 2.3 122.8 3.3 3.3 119.0 3.1 2.9 132.8 4.0 4.0 105.802 2.1 2.3 123.6 2.6 3.1 119.8 2.7 2.8 133.5 2.1 3.6 106.676 3.3 2.4 124.4 2.6 3.0 120.6 2.7 3.0 133.9 1.2 2.8 107.309 2.4 2.6 125.2 2.6 2.8 121.5 3.0 2.9 134.6 2.1 2.4 107.856 2.1 2.5 126.0 2.6 2.6 122.4 3.0 2.9 135.3 2.1 1.9 108.419 2.1 2.5 126.9 2.9 2.7 123.2 2.6 2.8 136.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1 2 3 4 1996 1 2 3 4 1 109.027 2.3 2.2 127.7 2.5 2.7 124.4 4.0 3.2 136.0 0.0 109.619 2.2 2.2 128.8 3.5 2.9 125.5 3.6 3.3 137.0 3.0 1.8 1 10.166 2.0 2.1 129.7 2.8 2.9 126.4 2.9 3.3 137.7 2.1 1.8 1 10.689 1.9 2.1 130.6 2.8 2.9 127.4 3.2 3.4 138.7 2.9 2.0 1 1 1.443 2.8 2.2 131.4 2.5 2.9 128.5 3.5 3.3 138.7 0.0 2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1997 1 2 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Exports 1994 5.5 Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Billions Of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 6.6 668.959 7.5 100.0 3.2 100.0 658.215 2.9 730.249 9.2 100.2 0.2 102.3 2.3 71 1.971 8.2 817.635 12.0 100.6 0.4 104.3 2.0 775.401 8.9 882.999 8.0 100.9 0.3 107.7 3.3 825.898 6.5 939.530 6.4 101.6 0.7 1 1 1.6 3.6 Billions of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago 639.416 Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 5.2 677.647 - 1 .5 4.7 776.962 8.2 10.5 100.3 -2 .0 0.2 103.8 3.1 2.3 703.108 15.9 6.5 810.404 18.4 11.9 100.6 1.2 0.9 104.1 1.2 2.1 3 4 719.560 9.7 1 1.5 831.262 10.7 13.6 101.0 1.6 0.9 104.5 1.5 2.0 747.573 16.5 9.9 851.919 10.3 11.8 101.1 0.4 0.3 105.4 3.5 2.3 1 752.330 2.6 1 1.0 874.851 11.2 12.6 100.5 -2 .4 0.2 106.2 3.1 2.3 2 763.226 5.9 8.6 884.605 4.5 9.2 100.9 1.6 0.3 107.2 3.8 3.0 3 4 782.952 10.7 8.8 884.524 - 0 .0 6.4 101.3 1.6 0.3 108.2 3.8 3.5 803.087 10.7 7.4 888.023 1.6 4.2 101.0 -1 .2 0.1 109.3 4.1 3.7 1 2 3 4 806.713 1.8 7.2 910.707 10.6 4.1 101.5 2.0 1.0 1 10.2 3.3 3.8 0.8 1 1 1.3 4.1 3.8 1 817.864 5.6 7.2 932.556 9.9 5.4 101.7 0.8 816.106 - 0 .9 4.2 953.541 9.3 7.8 101.7 0.0 0.4 1 12.2 3.3 3.7 862.91 1 25.0 7.4 961.314 3.3 8.3 101.9 0.8 0.9 1 13.2 3.6 3.6 886.039 1 1.2 9.8 1012.884 23.2 11.2 102.5 2.4 1.0 1 14.5 4.7 3.9 23 National EconomicTrends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 118488 120259 123067 124899 126705 775 1771 2808 1833 1806 1995 1 2 3 4 124924 124711 124820 125142 519 -2 1 3 109 322 1996 1 2 3 4 125693 126381 127042 127705 551 688 661 664 1 128728 1995 Apr May Jun Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Nonfarm Payroll Employment Percent change Year Annual ago rate Thousands Change Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Index Percent chanae Year Monthly Annual rate rate ago 0.3 2.0 3.1 2.7 2.0 121.2 124.6 129.9 133.4 136.4 0.7 2.8 4.2 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 1.5 1.4 108592 110726 114153 117202 119549 331 2134 3427 3050 2347 1.7 -0 .7 0.4 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.6 116484 116956 117441 117928 874 472 485 487 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.0 132.9 132.9 133.6 134.3 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.4 0.1 2.1 2.0 4.2 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.0 118466 119264 119958 120509 538 797 694 551 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 134.2 136.1 137.0 138.2 -0 .0 1.4 0.7 0.9 -0 .2 5.6 2.8 3.5 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 1023 3.2 2.4 121238 729 2.4 2.3 139.5 0.9 3.8 3.9 125023 124577 124533 -4 7 -4 4 6 -4 4 -0 .5 -4 .2 -0 .4 2.2 1.3 1.5 116861 116907 117100 160 46 193 1.7 0.5 2.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 133.7 131.9 133.2 0.7 -1 .3 1.0 8.4 -1 5 .0 12.5 3.8 1.7 2.6 Jul Aug Sep 124804 124729 124927 271 -7 5 198 2.6 -0 .7 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 117201 117499 117623 101 298 124 1.0 3.1 1.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 133.5 133.4 134.0 0.2 -0.1 0.4 2.7 -0 .9 5.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 Oct Nov Dec 125235 125124 125068 308 -111 -5 6 3.0 -1.1 -0 .5 1.0 0.5 0.3 117749 117899 118136 126 150 237 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 134.3 134.3 134.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.9 1.4 1996 Jan Feb Mar 125311 125706 126062 243 395 356 2.4 3.8 3.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 118070 118579 118750 -6 6 509 171 -0 .7 5.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 131.7 135.5 135.5 -1 .9 2.9 0.0 -2 0 .9 40.7 0.0 -1.1 2.1 2.0 Apr May Jun 126125 126428 126590 63 303 0.9 1.5 1.7 118922 119332 119537 172 410 205 1.8 4.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.1 135.2 135.3 137.7 -0 .2 0.1 162 0.6 2.9 1.5 1.8 -2 .6 0.9 23.5 1.1 2.6 3.4 Jul Aug Sep 126889 126988 127248 299 99 260 2.9 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 119772 120052 120050 235 280 -2 2.4 2.8 -0 .0 2.2 2.2 2.1 136.1 136.9 138.0 -1 .2 0.6 0.8 -13.1 7.3 10.1 1.9 2.6 3.0 Oct Nov Dec 127617 127644 127855 369 27 21 1 3.5 0.3 2.0 1.9 120311 120492 120723 261 181 231 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 137.1 -0 .7 2.0 2.2 138.2 139.3 0.8 0.8 -7 .6 10.1 10.0 2.1 2.9 3.7 1997 Jan Feb Mar 128580 128430 129175 725 -1 5 0 745 7.0 -1 .4 7.2 2.6 2.2 2.5 120982 121296 121435 259 314 139 2.6 3.2 1.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 137.1 140.7 140.7 -1 .6 2.6 0.0 -1 7 .4 36.5 0.0 4.1 3.8 3.8 Apr 129384 209 2.0 2.6 121577 142 1.4 2.2 139.6 -0 .8 -9 .0 3.3 1997 24 HationaìEconomicTrends Industrial Production Retail Sales Unempl. Rate Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Billions of dollars Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 4.8 6.5 7.4 4.6 4.9 100.000 103.366 108.558 112.109 1 15.198 5.6 5.2 4.5 3.1 1 11.764 1 11.561 1 12.441 1.0 -0 .2 0.8 112.671 0.2 0.4 Index Treasury Yields 3 -m o 10-yr 3.2 3.4 5.0 3.3 2.8 3.43 3.00 4.25 5.49 5.01 7.01 5.86 3.9 -0 .7 3.2 0.8 5.1 3.3 3.0 1.8 5.74 5.60 5.37 5.26 7.48 6.62 6.32 5.89 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 1944.605 2071.178 2224.913 2326.536 2439.513 1 2 3 4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 573.137 578.680 585.146 589.573 1.1 0.8 0.8 3.9 4.5 3.1 1 2 3 4 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 600.484 609.029 61 1.040 618.960 1.9 1.4 0.3 1.3 7.6 5.8 1.3 5.3 4.8 5.2 4.4 5.0 1 13.128 114.844 115.774 1 17.048 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 6.2 3.3 4.5 1.2 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.93 5.02 5.10 4.98 5.91 6.72 6.78 6.34 1 5.3 636.220 2.8 1 1.6 6.0 1 18.392 1.1 4.7 4.7 5.06 6.56 1995 Apr May Jun 5.7 5.6 5.6 191.094 193.074 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 13.2 9.3 4.4 5.7 5.5 1 11.421 1 1 1.523 1 1 1.739 -0 .3 0.1 0.2 -3 .2 1.1 2.3 3.7 3.2 2.9 5.65 5.67 5.47 7.06 6.63 6.17 Jul Aug Sep 5.7 5.7 5.7 194.315 195.752 195.079 -0.1 0.7 5.3 4.5 3.8 1 11.716 1 12.603 1 13.003 -0 .0 0.8 0.4 -0 .2 10.0 4.3 2.4 3.1 3.4 5.42 5.40 5.28 6.28 6.49 -0 .3 -1 .2 9.2 -4 .0 Oct Nov Dee 5.5 5.6 5.6 194.865 196.702 198.006 -0.1 0.9 0.7 -1 .3 11.9 8.3 2.3 3.1 3.8 1 12.522 1 12.704 1 12.788 -0 .4 0.2 0.1 -5 .0 2.0 0.9 2.3 1.9 1.1 5.28 5.36 5.14 6.04 5.93 5.71 1996 Jan Feb Mar 5.7 5.5 5.5 197.714 201.085 201.685 -0.1 -1 .8 22.5 3.6 2.6 6.1 5.6 1 12.361 -0 .4 1.3 -0 .5 -4 .4 0.4 5.00 5.65 1.7 0.3 16.3 -5 .6 1.9 1.4 4.83 4.96 5.81 6.27 Apr May Jun 5.5 5.5 5.3 202.375 203.865 202.789 0.3 0.7 -0 .5 4.2 9.2 -6 .2 5.9 5.6 1 1.6 5.4 7.4 2.6 2.9 4.95 5.02 4.3 114.284 1 14.782 1 15.466 3.3 5.09 6.51 6.74 6.91 Jul Aug Sep 5.4 203.291 4.6 1 15.495 0.0 -1 .5 10.4 3.7 4.9 115.848 115.978 0.3 0.1 0.3 3.7 1.4 3.4 203.036 204.713 0.2 -0.1 0.8 3.0 5.2 5.2 2.9 2.6 5.15 5.05 5.09 6.64 6.83 Oct Nov Dee 5.2 5.3 5.3 206.277 205.789 206.894 0.8 -0 .2 0.5 9.6 -2 .8 6.6 5.9 4.6 4.5 1 16.231 1 17.216 1 17.697 0.2 0.8 0.4 2.6 10.7 5.0 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.99 5.03 4.91 6.53 6.20 6.30 1997 Jan Feb Mar 5.4 5.3 5.2 210.233 213.022 212.965 1.6 1.3 -0 .0 21.2 17.1 -0 .3 6.3 5.9 5.6 1 17.765 1 18.369 1 19.043 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 6.3 7.1 4.8 4.0 5.1 5.03 5.01 5.14 6.58 6.42 6.69 Apr 4.9 212.241 -0 .3 -4 .0 4.9 1 18.994 -0 .0 -0 .5 4.1 5.16 6.89 1995 1996 1997 194.512 0.2 1.0 113.782 1 13.241 0.9 0.4 0.6 7.08 6.58 6.44 6.20 6.87 25 National EconomicTrends rruuucer rnce inaex wn&umer rrice mue* less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Finished Goods Year to date ____ Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year Index quarterly rate ago 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 140.4 144.6 148.3 152.5 157.0 1995 1 2 3 4 151.0 152.1 152.9 153.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 2.8 3.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.6 159.6 161.0 162.0 163.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 127.1 127.6 128.0 129.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 3.0 1.7 1.3 2.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 1996 1 2 3 4 155.1 156.4 157.5 158.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.2 164.2 165.3 166.3 167.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 129.9 130.9 131.6 132.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 3.0 2.9 2.3 3.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 1 159.7 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 168.3 0.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 132.6 -0 .2 -0 .7 2.1 1995 Apr May Jun 151.8 152.1 152.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 4.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 160.6 161.0 161.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.8 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 127.5 127.7 127.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 2.2 2.0 Jul Aug Sep 152.6 153.0 153.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 3.2 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 161.6 162.0 162.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 127.9 127.9 128.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.0 3.8 1.8 1.3 1.8 Oct Dec 153.7 153.8 154.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 4.0 0.8 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 162.9 163.1 163.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 3.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 128.5 128.8 129.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.8 7.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 1996 Jan Feb Mar 154.7 155.1 155.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.8 3.1 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 163.8 164.2 164.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 129.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 2.2 2.0 2.4 Apr May Jun 156.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.9 2.8 0.2 2.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 2.2 130.6 130.8 131.2 2.4 165.3 165.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 1.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.2 3.1 1.5 3.9 3.8 3.4 164.9 156.5 156.7 0.2 0.3 1.9 3.7 2.4 2.7 Jul Aug Sep 157.1 157.4 157.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.1 2.3 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 166.0 166.2 166.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.9 1.5 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 131.2 131.6 132.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 3.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 Oct Nov 158.3 158.8 Dec 159.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.1 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 167.0 167.4 167.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 132.5 132.7 133.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.6 1.8 6.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 1997 Jan Feb Mar 159.4 159.8 159.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.5 3.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 1.5 2.3 1.8 167.9 168.3 168.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.2 2.4 133.0 132.5 132.4 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0.1 -3 .5 -4 .4 -0 .9 2.5 2.2 1.5 Apr 160.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.5 169.2 0.3 3.6 2.6 2.7 131.6 -0 .6 -7 .0 0.8 1997 Nov Digitized 26for FRASER 3.7 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.7 147.5 152.4 156.7 161.4 165.8 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 123.2 124.7 125.6 127.9 131.3 129.7 130.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.9 2.6 National Economic Tren ds Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association o f Pur chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter / is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.i)/GDPt.j)A- 1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of the index plus the percent change in the index. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12,13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The c u rre n t ac count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value o f existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part o f GDP). Capital con sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income o f persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa tion per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac ity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.
@FedFRASER