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Dispelling Myths
About Immigrants
Many Americans believe that immigration hurts U.S.
workers and the economy. Immigrants are perceived as
taking jobs away from native-born Americans and fill­
ing the rolls for public assistance. The facts, however,
do not support this claim.
A recent National Research Council report, authored
by a panel of economists and sociologists, shows that
Americans are generally not losing jobs because of
immigrants.1 Actually, immigrants are increasing eco­
nomic growth by bringing with them skills that widen
the variety of goods the economy can produce. Each
year, new immigrants add between $1 billion and $10
billion to total U.S. output.
But not all Americans share equally in this gain. In
theory, natives with skills similar to immigrants, for
example, will likely compete with them for jobs and, as a
result, receive a reduced wage. Those with skills better
than immigrants will likely work alongside them and
receive a higher wage. These skill differences are what
lead to the economic gain. However, not all immigrants
are low-skilled. In fact, proportionately more recent
immigrants than natives have at least a bachelor’s degree.
In the real world, who potentially gains and loses
from immigration is not so clear. Economists expect
immigration to negatively affect the wages or job
opportunities of natives who directly compete with
immigrants. But recent studies have found very little
evidence of lower wages or fewer job opportunities for
any natives—whether white or black, skilled or unskilled,
male or female— largely, the studies report, because
immigrants tend to settle in different areas than the
groups they mainly compete with. What many of
these studies do show, however, is that recent waves of
immigrants suffer the most when new immigrants arrive.
Another common misconception is that immigrants

are a drain on public coffers because they receive more
government benefits—such as public education or wel­
fare—than natives. The evidence suggests that this, too,
is wrong. The accompanying chart shows the net fiscal
impact—benefits received (negative amounts) adjusted
for taxes paid (positive amounts)—of immigrants, their
children and natives. As the chart shows, all groups get
about the same amount of government benefits during
childhood and retirement, when most benefits are received.
During the working years, however, the amount of taxes
each group pays is quite different. Recent immigrants
pay the least, but their children—who tend to make more
money and live in high-income/high-tax states—pay the
most. Thus, the most striking difference between immi­
grants and natives is not in benefits received, but rather
in taxes paid. Still, these same immigrants provide the
economic gain noted above.
For more information, see the October 1997 issue of
The Regional Economist, a St. Louis Fed publication.
— Adam M. Zaretsky
1 The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal
Effects o f Immigration (1997).

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System




Tabi eofContents
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on September 30, 1997.
2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3.

Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from ye a r ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The p e rce n t change a t annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t- 1 and the current quarter t is:
4

100 x

-

1

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published m onthly by the R esearch Division of the Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis. For m ore inform ation on data, p leas e call (3 1 4 ) 4 4 4 -8 5 7 3 .
S ingle-copy subscriptions are av ailab le free of c h a rg e by w riting to the Public Affairs O ffice, Federal R eserve B ank of St. Louis, Post O ffice Box 4 4 2 , St. Louis, M O 6 3 1 6 6 -0 4 4 2
or by calling (3 1 4 ) 4 4 4 -8 8 0 8 or (3 1 4 ) 4 4 4 -8 8 0 9 . Inform ation in this publication is also included on th e F ed era l R eserve E co nom ic D a ta (F R E D ) elec tro n ic bulletin b o ard at
(3 1 4 ) 6 2 1 -1 8 2 4 or Internet W orld W id e W e b se rver at h ttp://w w w .stls.frb.org/fred.




National EconomicTrends

Real G DP Growth

Consum er Price Index

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change

6

0.5 - ..........................................

- ......................................

0.4 —

0.3

0.2

—

0.1

0.0
1994

Industrial Production

r

1996

1997

Interest Rates

Percent change

1995

Percent

1.8

- ............................

1994

1995

1996

1997

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

2 1......... 1
......... 1
......... 1
.... ..
1994

1995

1996

1997

1996

1997

Unemployment Rate

Thousands

Percent of labor force

600 -

7.0 - ............. ...........................

4.5
1994




1995

1996

1997

1994

1995

3

National EconomicTrends
Percent change from year ago
10

- ..........

..............

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (N A P M ) Indexes
Percent change from year ago

Index

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
1 2 - .............. s

m m m

-4 -

_8 T

72

r

73

1 vr".... I.....I
."“
74

75

76

77

I

78

I..... ..... I..... I.. ..i..... I..... I
79

80

81

82

83

84

85

I..... (.....I.....I.....I.. T ....I..... I.... r .....I
86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

i.....I..... l
96

97

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
2

-

2i 72 I73 r"“*r75 I76 I77 I78 .... P i...r 82 i.....I 84 85 I86 I87 I... I89 I 90 .....I.... I....I 94 I95 I 96 I 97
....
....I
.....I ....
. .... ..“
.... .. .... .....I
74
79 80 81
83
88
91 92 93

4


UationalEconomicTrends

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate

6 -

8 — r

Preliminary
Annual Revision

ZH Advance
Final

Y //////A
6 —

2 -

96:2

96:3

96:4

97:1

97:2

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and NAPM Index
Index

Percent change
1.8

I

I

0 —

1997

1996

1995

—

- ................

68

Percent change at annual rate
10 -

..........................................................................................................

1995

1996

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
4-

1997

Hours
35.0 —

33.5

1995

Real Change in Business Inventories

1997

Inventory-Saies Ratio

Billions of 1992 dollars

1996

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 -

1.31 “I"

-2 0

1995



'

1996

(

1997

1995

1996

1997

5

National EconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real G DP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
1 0 -j-

-4
95Q 3

95Q 4

96Q1

96Q 2

Consumption
H

H

Imports

96Q 3

Exports
I

96Q 4

I

i Inventories

97Q1

J Government

97Q 2

- - ■ " Real GDP

Investment

Contributions to Real G D P Growth Rate
1995
3rd

1996
1st 4th

2n d
5.97

1.03

5.22

0.1 6

4.49

2n d

4.89

3.31

j

3 .0 2

2.48

4.31

2.56

1997
1st 4th

3rd

1.77

j

i

Real GDP

3 .0 4

2.22

Final Sales

3 .2 6

1.94

- 0 .2 7

0.31

- 0 .8 3

0 .7 8

0.9 6

- 0 .2 9

I

1.76

0.79

Consumption

1.77

1.22

2.1 3

2.53

0 .3 5

2 .2 2

|

3 .5 6

0 .6 4

Fixed Investment

0 .4 9
0 .1 7
0.31

0 .8 3
0.51
0.31

1.49
1.19
0.31

2 .0 2
1.34
0 .6 6

1.46
1.72
- 0 .1 8

0 .4 5
0 .6 6
- 0 .1 7

|
|
|

0.59
0 .4 7
0 .1 3

1.84
1.59
0 .2 8

- 0 .1 4
- 0 .0 9
-0 .0 5

-1 .0 2
-1 .2 3
0.21

0 .3 2
0 .4 9
- 0 .1 6

1.29
0.58
0.71

- 0 .2 0
- 0 .2 9
0 .0 8

0 .0 2
- 0 .3 5
0 .3 7

|
|
|

- 0 .0 8
- 0 .3 8
0.31

0 .5 4
0.41
0 .1 3

1.19
1.50
-0 .3 0

1.00
1.32
-0 .3 2

j

- 0 .6 9
1.13
-1 .8 1

-1 .5 1
0 .2 3
- 1 .7 3

1.93
2.89
-0 .9 4

j!
j

|

- 1 .4 4
0.21
- 1 .6 5

J

- 1 .1 8
1.24
- 2 .3 9

- 0 .5 8
2.26
- 2 .8 0

-0 .0 0

-0 .1 1

i

0.1 1

- 0 .0 3

- 0 .0 8

- 0 .1 0

I

0 .2 0

0.02

Change in Inventory

Nonresidential
Residential

Government
Federal
State and Local

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

Residual

6


!

|

I
|
|

National EconomicTrends

Interest Rates
Percent
18

12

Treasury Yield C urve
Percent
7.5 7.0 -

4.54.0 -

3m

1y

2y

5y

7y

ioy

30y

Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago

50

25

0

-25

-50




7

NationalEconomicTrends

Percent change from year ago
12

- ..........................

...............................

Consum er Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment C ost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago


8


National EconomicTrends
Dollars per barrel
28-

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ........................... - ......................

121

1992

1 1993

1 1994

'

1995

Consum er Price Index

1 1997

1

Consumption Chain Price Index

Percent change
0.5 - ................. -..... —...........

( 1996

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ...............................-.......... -...................

0.4 -

Excl. Food & Energy
3 -

CPI (bar)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

1995

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

1996

1997

1996

1997

1996

1997

Unit Labor Cost

Percent change
0 .6 5 .
Excl.
Food & Energy
0.40 -

Forcent change at annual rate
6 - ........................................................

1995

-6

1997

1996

Employment Cost index

1995

Compensation per Hour

Forcent change from year ago

Percent change at annual rate

8 -

6 - ...........................................................

Benefits
6 —

...............

Compensation

2 - Wages
ana Salaries

1992

1993




'

1994

'

1995

1 1996

'

1997

1995

9

National EconomicTrends

Employment
Perœnt change from year ago

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force

Percent of population
- 70

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50

Weeks
- 16

3.75

- 14

3.00

-

2.25

-

1.50

..._

8

0.75

_

6

0.00


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

T

12

10

4

NationalEconomicTrends

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands
600 - ...................................................

Thousands
60 - ................................................................
40 -

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

Change in Household Employment
Percent change from year ago
2.5 - .......-....... .................................

Thousands
1000

-

...........................................................................................................

- 750 1 ........................................ 1
.........................................1
.........................

1995

1996

1997

1992

1993

1994

Unemployment Rate

1996

1997

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent
6.0 -

1995

Index

Percent

4 5 “ I.............................................I............................................. I............................

1995




1996

1997

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

11

Nat iona IEconomic Tren ds

Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

8

4

0

-4

1

Real Consum ption
Percent change from year ago

Percent change from year ago
-

20

21

-

14

10

7

0

0

-10

-

-2 0

I"

-7
~ U

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average

12
8

4
0

-4

I

Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent
18

Percent
-

12

17

11

16

10

15

9

14

8


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends

Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate

Percent change

Percent

2 - ...........................

0 1 .i . i I i. i l
I
*

ll

-1 -

ii

i l n i - i i - l
I
"

- 2 - [ ............................................I........................................... ] ............................

1995

1996

2

.................. ................... ................................................................................

1

1997

1992

[ 1993

1 1994

[ 1995

' 1996

f 1997

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Percent change

Percent change

1.6 -

8 - ....................................

1.2

.....................................................

-

■0.8 - j ...................................... I.......................................j .......................................I

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change
2.25 -

Percent change

Millions of vehicles, annual rate

9 - ...................................■
..........................................................- 16.0
Autos and light trucks

-2 .2 5

1995

1996

1997

Consum er Sentiment (U . of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Index

Percent change

110 — •

20 -

60 - |...................I...................[.................. ].................. j .................. j ...............
1992 ' 1993
1994
1995
1996
1997



■10 - [ ...................................... j....................................... ï ....................................... I

1995

1996

1997

13

National EconomicTrends

Real Investment
Percent of GDP
22 -

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends

G ross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP
24 -

Percent of GDP
-

10

-

8

-

6

-

4

22

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital G oods Orders

Percent change at annual rate
15 - .........................................................

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30 - .....................................................................................

20 —j....................|.....................j .....................|

1992

1993

1994

1995

Real Equipment Investment

1996

[

1997

i

Real Nonresidential Investment

Percent change at annual rate
25 -

[

20 -

1995

Percent change at annual rate

1996

Real Residential Investment
Percent change at annual rate
20 - ........................................................




1997

Housing Starts
Millions, annual rate
1.6

-

15

National Economic Tren ds

G ovt. Consum ption and Investment

Governm ent Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400

Percent of GDP
35 - ...... y

1200

1000

800

25

600

400

Federal Outlays, 1994

Federal Receipts, 1994

Defense
22.70%

Personal Income
39.67%

let Interest
Social Security
20.24%
Other
8.41%

Corp. Profit
11.40%

Social Insurance
40.53%

Medicaid
5.33%

State and Local Outlays, 1994
Education
37.66%

State and Local Receipts, 1994
Personal Income
13.82%

Corp. Profit
3.15%
Sales

Income

Property
.16%
Medical Care
17.32%

Other
10. 10%
Other
19.13%

Transportation
6.80%

16



Social Insurance
7.73%
Safety
10.44%

Federal Grants
20.99%

National EconomicTrends

Gross Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

Change in Gross Federal Debt

88

90

92

94

96

86

88

90

92

94

96

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

86

Billions of dollars, fiscal years

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

National Income Accounts

Unified Budget

Calendar Years

Fiscal Years

State and Local

Federal

S u rp lu s o r
R e c e ip ts E x p e n d itu re s D e fic it)-)

R e c e ip ts

S u rp lu s o r
E x p e n d ituere s it (-)
D iic

S u rp lu s o r
ODuet fic yit(-)
la s

R e c e ip ts

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

361. 4
390. 8
409. 0
443. 6
492. 0

291.9
322 . 5
357.7
378. 8
405.1

69.5
68.3
51.3
64.8
86.9

56 1.5
64 9. 3
6 46 . 4
671. 9
746. 9

622.5
707.1
781.0
846.3
902. 9

-61.0
-57.8
-134.6
-174.4
-156.0

517.1
5 9 9. 3
61 7. 8
60 0. 6
666 . 5

590. 9
6 78 . 2
7 4 5. 8
808.4
8 51 . 8

-73.8
-79.0
-128.0
-207.8
-185.4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

528. 7
570. 6
594. 9
63 1.4
681. 0

437.8
475.7
51 1.1
545. 5
585.9

90.9
94.9
83. 8
85.9
95.1

81 1.3
850.1
937.4
9 97 . 2
1079.3

974.2
1027.6
1066.3
1 1 18.5
1 192.7

-162.9
-177.5
-128.9
-121.3
- 1 13.4

734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
990.7

946.4
99 0. 3
1003. 9
1064.1
1 143.2

-212.3
-221.2
-149.8
-155.2
-152.5

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

728.9
784. 2
844. 3
894. 4
949. 2

648. 8
708. 4
758. 0
807.0
852. 3

80.1
75. 8
86. 3
87 . 4
96. 9

1 129.8
1 149.0
1 198.5
1275.1
1374. 8

1284.5
1345.0
1479.4
1525.7
1561.4

-154.7
-196.0
-280.9
-250.6
-186.6

1 031. 3
1054 . 3
1 090 . 5
1 153. 5
1257. 7

1252 . 5
132 3. 6
1380. 9
1408.7
1460 . 8

-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
-255.1
-203.1

1995
1996

999. 0
1043. 4

895.9
9 38. 0

103.1
105.4

1463. 2
1587. 6

1637.6
1698.1

-174.4
- 1 10.5

1351 . 5
1452 . 8

1 51 5. 4
1560.1

- 1 63.9
-107.3




17

NationaiEconomicTrends

Tra de and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
Yen/US$
- 450

Index, March 1973 = 100
180 - .................— w ....

160 -

- 375

300

- 225

- 150

801

72

I

73

I

74

T

75

I

76

1

77

I

78

I

79

I

80

I

81

Goods Export Shares, 1996
Mexico
9.28%


18


~

Germ any
3.84%

France
UK 2.36%
5.06%

I..... I
82

83

I

84

I

85

I

86

I

87

I

88

I

89

I "T
90

91

I ” I
92

93

I

94

I "" I
95

96

I

Goods Import Shares, 1996

97

r

75

National EconomicTrends

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ..................................................

-2 0

1995

1996

1997

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ..................................................

0

20-

Exports

1997

1996

1995

Real G D P G ro w th o t M ajor T r a d in g Partners
Percent change at annual rate

Germany

United Kingdom
9 -

8 6 -

4 2 0
•2-1

1995

1

1996

1

1997

Canada

1995




1996

France

1997

19

NationaìEconomicTrends

Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago

5 1.....r
r ^ ' T .... 1
..... 1..... 1 T I ..I..“
..... ....
72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81

Percent

.. 1 .....1 ..... 1 ..... r.....i..*: .... i..... t..... i.....i..... t..... i.....r
.....1 .....1 .....1
t

82

83

84

85

86

Percent change from year ago

Output per H our and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5 -


20


87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

50

National EconomicTrends

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Percent change at annual rate
5 - .....................................................

Percent change at annual rate

- 2 -

—4 —
-4 —
'5 T

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

Selected Com ponent Shares of National Income
Percent
13

Percent
- 75

Corporate Profits after Ta x (with IVA and C C A d j)
Percent change from year ago

-2 0




21

National Economic Trends
N o m in a l G D P
Billions
of $
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994

1995

1996

1997

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

R e al G D P

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

1997

22

Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago

5 .5

6 2 4 4 .4 4 2

2 .7

6 2 3 7 .4 4 1

2 .5

5 .0

6 3 8 9 .5 6 3

2 .3

6 3 6 8 .8 6 4

2.1

7 .0 0 1

6 9 4 7 .0

5 .9

6 6 1 0 .7 4 1

3 .5

6 5 5 1 .2 4 7

2 .9

2 2 .1 0 2

7 2 6 5 .4

4 .6

6 7 4 2 .0 6 2

2 .0

6 7 1 2 .6 7 2

2 .5

6 0 .5 5 2

5.1

6 9 2 8 .3 9 6

2 .8

6 9 0 0 .9 8 0

2 .8

2 7 .3 4 1

7 6 3 6 .0

-2 .9 7 7

6 7 9 4 .3

5 .5

5 .4

6 5 2 4 .5 0 5

3.0

3.1

6 4 7 3 .0 2 9

1.2

2 .8

5 3 .0 6 1

691 1 .4

7.1

6.2

6 6 0 0 .3 1 3

4 .7

3 .8

6 5 2 6 .6 7 1

3 .4

2 .9

7 5 .8 9 6

1 6 .6 4 4

6 9 8 6 .5

4 .4

6 .3

6 6 2 9 .4 7 4

1.8

3.7

6 5 8 0 .3 7 6

3 .3

3 .2

4 9 .6 6 2

1 5 .2 8 3

7 0 9 5 .7

6 .4

5 .8

6 6 8 8 .6 0 9

3 .6

3 .3

6 6 2 4 .8 4 8

2.7

2 .7

6 3 .5 9 0

2 4 .1 7 9

3 2 .3 0 1

7 1 6 8 .9

4 .2

5 .5

67 0 3 .7 2 1

0 .9

2 .7

6 6 5 4 .2 8 9

1 .8

2 .8

4 8 .4 7 9

5 3 .0 6 1

7 2 0 9 .5

2 .3

4 .3

6 7 0 8 .8 4 1

0 .3

1 .6

6 6 8 5 .2 8 9

1.9

2 .4

2 1 .6 3 8

7 5 .8 9 6

7 3 0 1 .3

5 .2

4 .5

6 7 5 9 .2 3 4

3 .0

2 .0

6 7 3 9 .3 0 6

3 .3

2 .4

1 7 .0 2 3

4 9 .6 6 2

7 3 8 1 .9

4 .5

4 .0

6 7 9 6 .5 1 3

2 .2

1 .6

6 7 7 1 .9 2 7

2 .0

2 .2

2 2 .2 2 3

6 3 .5 9 0

1
2
3
4

7 4 6 7 .5

4 .7

4 .2

6 8 2 6 .3 6 2

6 8 1 4 .9 6 6

2 .6

2 .4

8 .0 3 9

4 8 .4 7 9

7 .7

5 .5

6 9 2 6 .0 2 3

1 .8
6 .0

1 .8

7 6 0 7 .7

3 .2

6 9 0 2 .2 9 0

5 .2

3 .2

2 1 .2 8 8

2 1 .6 3 8

7 6 7 6 .0

3 .6

5.1

6 9 4 3 .8 2 0

1.0

2 .7

6 9 0 5 .0 3 4

0 .2

2 .5

3 7 .9 0 3

1 7 .0 2 3

7 7 9 2 .9

6 .2

5 .6

7 0 1 7 .3 7 9

4 .3

3 .2

6 9 8 1 .6 9 2

4 .5

3.1

3 2 .9 2 2

2 2 .2 2 3

1
2

7 9 3 3 .6

7 .4

6 .2

7 1 0 1 .6 1 7

4 .9

4 .0

7 0 3 4 .0 8 7

3 .0

3 .2

6 3 .6 5 7

8 .0 3 9

7 7 .6 0 3

2 1 .2 8 8

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1996

C h a n g e in
B u s in e s s In v e n to rie s

6 5 5 8 .1

8 0 3 4 .3

5 .2

5 .6

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

7 1 5 9 .6 2 7

3 .3

3 .4

D u ra b le s C o n s u m p tio n
Billions
Of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

2 .8

4 8 8 .5 3 0

4 3 4 3 .5 6 3

2 .9

5 2 3 .8 4 1

4 4 8 5 .9 8 1

3 .3

5 6 1 .1 8 9

4 5 9 5 .2 7 3

2 .4

5 8 3 .5 9 8

4 7 1 4 .0 6 1

2 .6

6 1 1 .1 0 7

3 .6

5 5 0 .6 6 1

Billions
of 1992 $

1995

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annua
ago
rate

6 2 4 4 .4

C o n s u m p t io n

1994

Billions
of 1992 $

F in a l S a le s

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

4 2 1 9 .7 9 6

4 4 3 9 .4 3 6

3 .8

7 0 7 7 .7 4 9

2 .5

2 .5

P riv a te F ix e d In v e s tm e n t

N o n re s id e n tia l In v e s tm e n t

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate ' ago

Billions
of 1992 $

5 .8

7 8 3 .4 2 7

5 .7

5 5 7 .8 6 9

1.9

7 .2

8 4 2 .7 7 2

7 .6

6 0 0 .1 6 7

7 .6

7.1

9 1 5 .5 3 6

8 .6

6 4 8 .3 6 1

8 .0

4 .0

9 6 2 . 1 19

5.1

7 0 6 .5 1 3

9 .0

4 .7

1 0 4 1 .6 9 9

8 .3

7 7 1 .6 8 3

9 .2

6 .4

9 .2

8 8 7 .7 9 5

3 .2

9 .0

6 2 6 .1 9 1

0 .4

8 .4
7 .8

Percent chanae
Year
Annua
rate
ago

4 4 7 2 .2 2 4

3 .0

3 .5

5 5 5 .7 9 6

3 .8

7 .0

9 1 3 .1 7 8

1 1.9

9.9

6 4 1 .2 0 9

9 .9

4 4 9 8 .2 1 8

2 .3

3 .0

5 6 1 .7 4 1

4.3

6 .0

9 2 2 .7 1 2

4.2

9 .3

6 5 3 .1 5 3

7 .7

8 .5

4 5 3 4 .1 2 9

3 .2

3.1

5 7 6 .5 6 3

1 1 .0

6 .3

9 3 8 .4 6 7

7 .0

6 .6

6 7 2 .8 9 0

1 2 .6

7 .6

4 5 5 1 .3 0 3

1 .5

2 .5

5 7 2 .2 3 0

-3 .0

3 .9

9 5 5 .8 2 0

7 .6

7 .7

6 9 5 .6 7 4

1 4 .2

1 1.1

4 5 8 3 .4 5 8

2 .9

2 .5

5 7 7 .7 0 6

3 .9

3 .9

9 5 4 .0 3 4

-0 .7

4 .5

7 0 5 .3 5 3

5 .7

1 0 .0

4 6 1 2 .9 1 2

2 .6

2 .5

5 9 0 .7 5 5

9 .3

5 .2

9 6 2 .3 1 5

3 .5

4 .3

7 0 8 .2 3 1

1 .6

8 .4

4 6 3 3 .4 6 3

1 .8

2 .2

5 9 3 .7 0 1

2 .0

3 .0

9 7 6 .3 1 5

5.9

4 .0

7 1 6 .8 0 0

4 .9

6 .5

1
2
3
4

4 6 6 9 .3 7 3

3.1

2 .6

6 0 0 .6 6 2

4 .8

5 .0

1 0 0 1 .5 3 3

1 0 .7

4 .8

7 3 6 .9 3 9

1 1 .7

5 .9

4 7 1 2 .2 0 4

3 .7

2 .8

6 1 4 .7 7 1

9 .7

6 .4

1 0 3 5 .6 8 3

1 4 .4

8 .6

7 5 9 .7 3 4

1 3 .0

7 .7

-1 .9

3 .6

1 0 6 0 .8 8 6

10.1

1 0 .2

7 8 9 .2 9 0

1 6 .5

1 1 .4

3 .5

3 .9

1 0 6 8 .6 9 6

3 .0

9 .5

8 0 0 .7 7 1

5 .9

1 1 .7

1
2

4 7 1 8 .1 9 6

0 .5

2 .3

6 1 1 .8 6 4

4 7 5 6 .4 2 7

3 .3

2 .7

61 7 .1 3 1

4 8 1 8 .0 7 9

5 .3

3 .2

6 3 7 .7 6 6

14.1

6 .2

1 0 7 9 .0 0 6

3 .9

7 .7

8 0 8 .9 3 2

4.1

9 .8

4 8 2 9 .4 3 0

0 .9

2 .5

6 2 8 .9 9 2

-5 .4

2 .3

1 1 1 1 .3 9 3

1 2 .6

7 .3

8 3 6 .9 9 3

14 .6

1 0 .2




National EconomicTrends
G D P C h a in P ric e In d e x
Index
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994

1995

1996

1997

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

E m p lo y m e n t C o s t Index
Index

1995

1996

1997

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Index

Percent chanqe
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanqe
Annual
Year
ago
rate

1 0 0 .0 0 0

2 .8

1 1 4 .3

3 .7

1 1 1 .9

2 .9

1 2 0 .5

5 .5

2 .6

1 1 8 .4

3 .6

1 1 5 .2

2 .9

1 2 7 .0

5 .4

1 0 5 .0 8 8

2 .4

1 2 2 .3

3 .3

1 1 8 .5

2 .9

1 3 2 .0

4 .0

1 0 7 .7 6 3

2 .5

1 2 5 .6

2 .8

1 2 1 .9

2 .9

1 3 5 .0

2 .2

1 1 0 .2 2 4

2 .3

1 2 9 .2

2 .8

1 2 5 .9

3 .3

1 3 7 .4

1 .8

1 0 4 .1 5 6

2 .5

2 .3

1 2 0 .8

3 .0

3 .3

1 1 7 .1

2.1

2 .8

1 3 0 .3

4 .4

4 .3

10 4 .7 3 6

2 .2

2 .3

1 2 1 .8

3 .4

3 .3

1 1 8.1

3 .5

3.1

1 3 1 .5

3 .7

4 .0

1 0 5 .3 9 1

2 .5

2 .5

1 2 2 .8

3 .3

3 .3

1 1 9 .0

3.1

2 .9

1 3 2 .8

4 .0

4 .0

1 0 6 .0 7 1

2.6

2 .5

1 2 3 .6

2 .6

3.1

1 1 9 .8

2 .7

2 .8

1 3 3 .5

2.1

3 .6

1 0 6 .9 3 3

3 .3

2 .7

1 2 4 .4

2 .6

3 .0

1 2 0 .6

2 .7

3 .0

1 3 3 .9

1 .2

2 .8

1 0 7 .4 8 5

2.1

2 .6

1 2 5 .2

2 .6

2 .8

1 2 1 .5

3 .0

2 .9

1 3 4 .6

2.1

2 .4

1 0 8 .0 3 1

2 .0

2 .5

1 2 6 .0

2 .6

2 .6

1 2 2 .4

3 .0

2 .9

1 3 5 .3

2.1

1.9

1 0 8 .6 0 3

2.1

2 .4

1 2 6 .9

2 .9

2 .7

1 2 3 .2

2 .6

2 .8

1 3 6 .0

2.1

1.9

1 0 9 .3 4 9

2 .8

2 .3

1 2 7 .7

2 .5

2 .7

1 2 4 .4

4 .0

3 .2

1 3 6 .0

0 .0

1 .6

1 0 9 .8 5 7

1.9

2 .2

1 2 8 .8

3 .5

2 .9

1 2 5 .5

3 .6

3 .3

1 3 7 .0

3 .0

1 .8

1 1 0 .5 8 8

2 .7

2 .4

1 2 9 .7

2 .8

2.9

1 2 6 .4

2 .9

3 .3

1 3 7 .7

2.1

1 .8

2 .9

1 2 7 .4

3 .2

3 .4

1 3 8 .7

2 .9

2 .0

1 1 1 .1 0 3

1.9

2 .3

1 3 0 .6

1 1 1 .7 7 5

2 .4

2 .2

1 3 1 .4

2 .5

2 .9

1 2 8 .5

3 .5

3 .3

1 3 8 .7

0 .0

2 .0

1 1 2 .2 7 2

1 .8

2 .2

1 3 2 .5

3 .4

2 .9

1 2 9 .7

3 .8

3 .3

1 3 9 .7

2 .9

2 .0

Billions
of 1992 $

1994

E C I : B e n e fits

E C I: W a g e s

1 0 2 .6 4 3

E x p o r ts

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

2 .8

N o n fa rm O u tp u t p e r H o u r

Im p o rts

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

N o n f a r m C o m p e n s a tio n / H r

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Index

6 3 9 .4 1 6

6 .6

6 6 8 .9 5 9

7 .5

1 0 0 .0

3 .2

1 0 0 .0

5 .2

6 5 8 .1 8 3

2 .9

7 2 8 .4 0 9

8.9

1 00 .1

0.1

1 0 2 .3

2 .3

7 1 2 .3 9 9

8 .2

8 1 7 .0 2 6

1 2 .2

1 0 0 .5

0 .4

1 0 4 .1

1 .8

7 9 1 .2 1 3

11.1

8 9 0 .0 5 7

8.9

1 0 0 .7

0 .2

1 0 6 .7

2 .5

8 5 7 .0 2 2

8 .3

9 7 1 .4 6 9

9.1

1 0 2 .0

1 .3

1 10.1

3 .2

6 7 6 .0 2 9

-1 .8

4 .4

7 7 3 .6 3 8

7 .6

1 0 .2

1 0 0 .6

-0 .8

0 .5

1 0 3 .8

3.1

7 0 4 .1 3 1

1 7 .7

6 .7

8 0 8 .0 2 2

1 9 .0

1 1 .8

1 0 0 .7

0 .4

1.1

1 0 3 .9

0 .4

1 .8

7 2 2 .1 0 5

1 0 .6

1 1 .7

8 3 3 .2 2 9

13.1

1 4 .2

1 0 0 .4

-1 .2

0 .4

1 0 4 .2

1 .2

1 .7

7 4 7 .3 3 0

1 4 .7

1 0 .0

8 5 3 .1 9 7

9 .9

1 2 .3

1 0 0 .8

1 .6

0 .0

1 0 5 .0

3.1

1.9

2 .2

7 6 0 .3 6 8

7 .2

1 2 .5

8 7 3 .8 6 1

1 0 .0

1 3 .0

1 0 0 .3

-2 .0

-0 .3

1 0 5 .6

2 .3

1 .7

7 7 7 .4 4 7

9 .3

1 0 .4

8 9 0 .2 8 4

7 .7

1 0 .2

1 0 0 .5

0 .8

-0 .2

1 0 6 .4

3.1

2 .4

8 0 2 .4 3 5

1 3 .5

11.1

8 9 5 .3 6 8

2 .3

7 .5

1 0 0 .8

1 .2

0 .4

1 0 7 .1

2 .7

2 .8

8 2 4 .6 0 4

1 1 .5

1 0 .3

9 0 0 .7 2 0

2 .4

5.6

1 0 1 .2

1 .6

0 .4

1 0 7 .9

3 .0

2 .8

1
2
3
4

8 2 8 .1 7 8

1 .7

8 .9

9 2 8 .9 6 3

13.1

6 .3

1 0 1 .7

2 .0

1 .4

1 0 8 .7

3 .0

2 .9

8 4 7 .4 4 4

9 .6

9 .0

9 6 0 .0 4 3

14.1

7 .8

1 0 2 .2

2 .0

1 .7

1 0 9 .8

4.1

3 .2

8 5 1 .3 8 2

1.9

6.1

9 9 0 .2 4 0

1 3 .2

1 0 .6

1 0 2 .0

-0 .8

1 .2

1 1 0 .6

2 .9

3 .3

9 0 1 .0 7 1

2 5 .5

9 .3

1 0 0 6 .6 2 3

6 .8

1 1 .8

1 0 2 .4

1 .6

1 .2

1 1 1 .5

3 .3

3 .3

1
2

9 2 2 .6 5 2

9 .9

1 1 .4

1 0 4 8 .9 4 1

1 7 .9

1 2 .9

1 0 2 .8

1 .6

1.1

1 1 2 .8

4 .7

3 .8

9 6 2 .5 0 0

1 8 .4

1 3 .6

1 0 9 9 .1 0 6

2 0 .5

1 4 .5

1 0 3 .5

2 .8

1 .3

1 1 3 .7

3 .2

3 .6




23

HationaìEconomicTrends
H o u s e h o ld S u r v e y E m p lo y m e n t
Thousands

Change

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

118488
120259
123067
124899
126705

775
1771
2808
1833
1806

1
2
3
4

124924
124711
124820
125142

519
-213
109
322

1
2
3
4

125693
126381
127042
127705

551
688
661
664

1
2

128728
129462

1995 Aug
Sep

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

N o n f a r m P a y ro ll E m p lo y m e n t
Thousands Change

N o n fa rm A g g re g a t e H o u rs

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

0.3
1.9
3.1
2.7
2 .0

1 2 1.0
1 2 4.5
1 2 9.8
1 3 3 .4
1 3 6 .4

0 .7
2.9
4.2
2 .8
2 .2

0.7
1.5
2.3
1.5
1.4

108591
110707
114145
1 17195
1 1 95 1 7

336
2116
3438
3051
2322

1.7
-0 .7
0 .4
1.0

2 .4
1.7
1.3
0 .6

116482
116937
117414
11 7 9 49

873
455
478
534

3.1
1.6
1.6
1.8

3 .4
2.9
2 .4
2.0

1 3 3 .0
13 2 .9
1 3 3 .6
1 34.2

0 .8
-0 .1
0.6
0 .4

3 .2
-0 .4
2 .3
1.7

4 .3
2.7
2 .5
1.7

1.8

0 .6
1.3
1.8
2 .0

118471
119248
119898
12 0 4 5 2

522
778
649
555

1.8
2.7
2.2
1.9

1.7

2.2
2.1
2.1

2 .0
2.1
2.1

1 3 4 .3
136.1
1 3 7.0
138.1

0.1
1.3
0.7
0 .8

0 .4
5 .5
2.7
3.1

1.0
2.5
2.5
2.9

1023
734

3.2
2.3

2 .4
2 .4

121138
121854

68 6
715

2.3
2 .4

2 .3
2.2

1 39 .5
140.1

1.0
0 .4

4.1
1.7

3.8
2.9

124729
124927

-7 5
198

-0 .7
1.9

1.2
1.1

1 1 7 4 65
1 1 76 3 6

323
171

3.4
1.8

2 .4
2.3

1 3 3 .4
133.9

-0 .1
0 .4

-1 .8
4.6

2 .5
2 .4

Oct
Nov
Dec

125235
125124
125068

308
-1 11
-56

3.0
-1 .1
-0 .5

1.0
0 .5
0 .3

1 1 77 7 5
1 17951
1 1 81 2 0

139
176
169

1.4
1.8
1.7

2.2
2 .0
1.9

1 3 4.4

0 .4

1 3 4 .3
1 3 3.9

-0 .1
-0 .3

4.6
-0 .9
-3 .5

1.8
1.9
1.4

1996 Jan
Feb

1 25311
125706

243
395

126062

356

0 .4
0.6
0 .8

1 1 80 5 8
118550
1 1 88 0 4

-6 2
492
254

-0 .6
5.1
2 .6

1.6
1.7
1.8

1 3 2.5
135.1
1 3 5 .4

-1 .0
2.0

Mar

2 .4
3 .8
3.5

-1 1 .8
2 6 .3
2 .7

-0 .8
1.9
2.0

Apr

63
303
162

0 .6
2.9
1.5

0.9
1.5
1.7

118966
119263
1 1 95 1 6

162
297
253

1.6
3 .0
2 .6

1.8
2.1
2.1

135.1
1 3 5.7
1 3 7 .6

-0 .2
0 .4
1.4

-2 .6
5.5

Jun

126125
126428
126590

18.2

1.0
2.9
3 .5

Jul
Aug
Sep

126889
126988
127248

299
99
260

2.9
0.9
2 .5

1.7
1.8
1.9

119691
119983
1 2 0 0 19

175
292
36

1.8
3.0
0 .4

2.2
2.1
2 .0

136.1
137.1
1 3 7.9

-1 .1
0.7
0 .6

-1 2 .3
9 .2
7 .2

1.9
2.8
3 .0

Oct
Nov
Dec

127617
127644
127855

369
27
21 1

3 .5
0 .3
2 .0

1.9
2.0
2.2

120248
120450
1206 5 9

229
202
209

2 .3
2.0
2.1

2.1
2.1
2.1

1 3 7.2
1 3 7.9
139.1

-0 .5
0.5
0.9

-5 .9
6.3
1 1.0

2.1
2 .7
3.9

1997 Jan
Feb

128580
128430
129175

725
-150
745

7 .0
-1 .4
7 .2

2 .6
2.2
2 .5

1 2 09 0 9
121162
121344

250
253
182

2 .5
2 .5
1.8

2 .4
2 .2
2.1

1 3 8.2
1 4 0 .0
1 4 0 .2

-0 .6
1.3
0.1

-7 .5
16.8
1.7

4 .3
3 .6
3.5

209
255

Jun

129384
129639
129364

-275

2 .0
2 .4
-2 .5

2.6
2 .5
2.2

121671
121834
122056

327
163
222

3.3
1.6
*’ 2 .2

2 .3
2.2
2.1

1 3 9 .6
1 4 0 .0
1 4 0 .6

-0 .4
0.3
0 .4

-5 .0
3 .5
5 .3

3 .3
3.2
2.2

Jul
Aug

129708
129804

344
96

3.2
0.9

2.2
2.2

122421
122470

365
49

3 .6
0 .5

2 .3
2.1

1 4 0 .3
1 4 0 .8

-0 .2
0 .4

-2 .5
4 .4

3.1
2.7

1995

1996

1997

May

M ar

Apr
M ay


24


0 .2

National EconomicTrends
R e ta il S a le s
U n e m p l.
R a te

In d u s tria l P ro d u c t io n

Billions
of dollars

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago
4 .8
6 .5
7 .4
4 .6
4.9

1 0 0 .0 0 0
1 0 3 .3 6 6
1 0 8 .5 5 8
1 12.109
1 15.1 9 8

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate
ago

3-m o

10-yr

3 .2
3 .4
5 .0
3 .3
2 .8

3 .4 3
3 .0 0
4 .2 5
5 .4 9
5.01

7.01
5 .8 6
7 .0 8
6 .5 8
6 .4 4

5.1
3 .3

5 .7 4
5 .6 0
5 .3 7

0 .2

3.9
-0 .7
3.2
0 .8

5 .2 6

7 .4 8
6 .6 2
6 .3 2
5 .8 9

1.6

1.2
2.9
3 .0
3.9

4 .9 3

5.91

5 .0 2
5 .1 0
4 .9 8

6 .7 2
6 .7 8
6 .3 4

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1995

1996

7.5
6.9
6.1
5 .6
5.4

1 9 4 4 .6 0 5
2 0 7 1 .1 7 8
2 2 2 4 .9 1 3
2 3 2 6 .5 3 6
2 4 3 9 .5 8 8

1
2
3
4

5.5
5.6

5 7 3 .1 3 7
5 7 8 .6 8 0
5 8 5 .1 4 6
5 8 9 .5 7 3

0.2
1.0
1.1
0 .8

0 .8
3 .9
4.5
3.1

5.6

1 1 1 .76 4

5.2
4.5
3.1

1 1 1.561
1 12.441
1 12.671

1.9
1.5
0 .2
1.3

7 .6
6.1
0.9
5 .5

4.8
5.3
4 .4
5 .0

1 1 3 .1 2 8
1 1 4 .8 4 4
1 1 5 .7 7 4
1 1 7 .0 4 8

0 .4
1.5
0.8
1.1

6 .2
3.3
4 .5

5.7
5.6

Tre a s u ry
Y ie ld s

1.0
-0 .2
0 .8

3 .0
1.8

1
2
3
4

5.6
5 .4
5 .3
5 .3

6 0 0 .4 8 4
6 0 9 .3 7 1
6 1 0 .7 7 3
6 1 8 .9 6 0

1
2

5.3
4.9

6 3 5 .5 9 7
6 3 0 .2 4 4

2 .7
-0 .8

1 1.2
-3 .3

5.8
3.4

1 18 .3 2 6
1 19.581

1.1
1.1

4 .3

4 .6
4.1

5 .0 6
5 .0 5

6 .5 6
6 .7 0

1995 Aug
Sep

5.7
5.7

1 9 5 .7 5 2
1 9 5 .0 7 9

0 .7
-0 .3

9 .2
-4 .0

4.5
3.8

1 1 2 .6 03
1 1 3 .0 0 3

0 .8
0 .4

10.0
4 .3

3.1
3 .4

5 .4 0
5 .2 8

6 .4 9
6 .2 0

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5
5.6
5.6

1 9 4 .8 6 5
1 9 6 .7 0 2
1 9 8 .0 0 6

-0 .1

-1 .3
1 1.9
8 .3

2.3
3.1
3.8

1 12.5 2 2
1 1 2 .70 4
1 12 .7 8 8

-0 .4

-5 .0

6 .0 4

0 .2
0.1

2.0
0.9

2 .3
1.9
1.1

5 .2 8

0 .9
0 .7

5 .3 6
5 .1 4

5 .9 3
5.71

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.7
5 .5
5.5

1 9 7 .7 1 4

-0 .1
1.7
0 .3

-1 .8
2 2 .5
3.6

2.6
6.1
5.6

1 12.361
1 1 3 .7 8 2
1 13.241

-0 .4

-4 .4

2 0 1 .0 8 5
2 0 1 .6 8 5

1.3
-0 .5

1 6.3
-5 .6

0 .4
1.9
1.4

5 .0 0
4 .8 3
4 .9 6

5 .6 5
5.81
6 .2 7

Apr
May
Jun

5.5
5.5
5.3

2 0 2 .4 9 6
2 0 4 .1 7 7

4.9
10.4
-8 .4

6.0
5.8

1 1 4 .2 8 4
1 1 4 .7 8 2
1 1 5 .4 6 6

0.9
0 .4
0.6

1 1.6
5 .4

2 .6
2.9

2 0 2 .6 9 8

0 .4
0 .8
-0 .7

7 .4

3 .3

4 .9 5
5 .0 2
5 .0 9

6.51
6 .7 4
6.91

Jul
Aug
Sep

5 .4

2 0 3 .0 9 0
2 0 2 .9 7 0
2 0 4 .7 1 3

0 .2
-0 .1
0.9

2.3
-0 .7
10.8

4.5
3.7
4.9

1 1 5 .4 9 5

0.0

5 .1 5
5 .0 5

6 .8 7

0.3
0.1

0 .3
3 .7
1.4

3 .4

1 1 5 .8 4 8
1 1 5 .9 7 8

0 .8
-0 .2
0 .5

9 .6
-2 .8
6.6

5.9
4.6
4.5

1 16.231
1 1 7 .2 1 6
1 1 7 .69 7

0.2
0.8
0 .4

2 .6
10.7
5 .0

6.3

0.1
0.5
0 .4

0 .7

1997

5 .2
5 .2

4.2

4 .4

2.9
2.6

5 .0 9

6 .6 4
6 .8 3

3 .3
4 .0
4 .4

4 .9 9
5 .0 3
4.91

6 .5 3
6 .2 0
6 .3 0

6.3
5 .0

4 .8
4.0
4.9

5 .0 3
5.01
5 .1 4

6 .5 8
6 .4 2
6 .6 9

Oct
Nov
Dec

5 .2
5 .3
5 .3

2 0 6 .2 7 7
2 0 5 .7 8 9
2 0 6 .8 9 4

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

5 .4
5 .3
5 .2

2 1 0 .2 3 3
2 1 3 .0 2 2
2 1 2 .3 4 2

1.6
1.3

2 1 .2
17.1

-0 .3

-3 .8

5.9
5.3

1 1 7 .7 6 5
1 1 8 .3 6 6
1 1 8 .8 4 6

Apr
May
Jun

4.9
4 .8
5 .0

2 0 9 .9 3 4
2 0 9 .3 7 0
2 1 0 .9 4 0

-1 .1
-0 .3
0 .7

-1 2 .8
-3 .2
9 .4

3.7
2.5
4.1

119.331
1 1 9 .5 0 8
1 19.9 0 3

0 .4
0.1
0 .3

5 .0
1.8
4.0

4.4
4.1
3.8

5.1 6
5 .0 5
4 .9 3

6 .8 9
6.71
6 .4 9

Jul
Aug

4.8
4.9

2 1 2 .8 2 5
2 1 3 .6 7 9

0.9
0 .4

1 1.3
4.9

4.8
5.3

1 2 0 .4 3 0
1 2 1 .3 1 5

0.4
0.7

5 .4
9 .2

4 .3
4.7

5 .0 5
5 .1 4

6 .2 2
6 .3 0




25

National EconomicTrends

Index

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1995

1996

1 4 0 .4
1 4 4 .6
1 4 8 .3
1 5 2 .5
1 5 7 .0

1
2
3
4

152.1
1 5 2.9
1 5 3.9

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1 5 1 .0

rroaucer rnce inae*

wmsumer rrice maex

C o n s u m e r P ric e In d e x

le s s F o o d a n d E n e rg y
Year
to date

3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.9

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate
ago

F in is h e d G o o d s
Year
to date

1 23.2
1 24.7
1 25.6
127.9
1 3 1.3

3 .7
3 .3
2 .8
3 .0
2 .7

1 4 7.5
1 5 2.4
1 5 6.7
1 6 1.4
1 6 5.8

Index

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate
ago
1.2
1.2
0 .7
1.9
2.6

0 .7
0 .8
0 .5
0 .6

2 .8
3.1
2.1
2 .5

2.9
3.0
2.6
2.6

2.8
3 .0
2.7
2.6

15 9.6
1 61 .0
1 6 2 .0
163.1

0 .8
0 .8
0 .6
0 .7

3 .3
3 .4
2 .6
2.8

3 .0
3 .0
3 .0
3 .0

3 .3
3 .4
3.1
3 .0

127.1
1 2 7.6
12 8.0
1 2 9.0

0 .7
0 .4
0 .3
0 .7

3 .0
1.7
1.3
2.9

1.7
2 .0
1.6
2 .2

3 .3
3 .4
2 .7
3 .3

2 .8
2.8
3.0
3.2

3 .3
3 .4

0 .7
0 .6
0 .6
0.6

2 .6
2 .6
2 .5
2 .6

2 .9
2 .7
2 .7
2 .6

2 .6
2 .6
2.6
2.6

129.9
130.9
1 3 1.6
132.9

0 .7
0 .7
0 .6
1.0

3.0

3.1
3 .2

1 6 4.2
1 6 5.3
1 6 6.3
1 6 7 .4

2 .9
2.3
3.9

2 .2
2 .5
2 .8
3 .0

1
2
3
4

155.1
1 5 6 .4
1 5 7 .5
1 5 8 .8

0 .8
0 .8
0 .7
0 .8

1
2

1 5 9 .7
160.1

0 .6
0 .3

2 .4
1.1

2.9
2 .4

2 .4
1.7

1 68 .3
1 6 9 .5

0.6
0 .7

2.2
2.8

2.5
2 .5

2.2
2 .5

1 3 2 .6
13 1.3

-0 .2
-1 .0

-0 .7
-4 .0

2.1
0 .3

1995 Aug
Sep

1 5 3 .0
1 5 3 .2

0 .3
0.1

3.2
1.6

2.6
2 .5

2.7
2 .6

1 6 2 .0
1 6 2 .4

0.2
0.2

3.0
3.0

2.9
3.0

3.2
3.2

127.9
1 2 8 .3

0 .0
0 .3

0.0
3.8

1.3
1.8

Oct
Nov
Dec

1 5 3 .7
1 5 3 .8
154.1

0 .3
0.1
0 .2

4.0
0 .8
2 .4

2.7
2.6
2.5

2.7
2.5
2.5

162.9
163.1
1 6 3 .4

0 .3
0.1
0 .2

3 .8
1.5
2.2

3.1
3 .0
3 .0

3.3
3.1
3 .0

1 28 .5
1 28 .8
1 2 9.6

0 .2
0 .2
0 .6

1.9
2 .8
7 .7

2 .4
2.1
2 .2

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

1 5 4 .7
155.1
1 5 5 .6

0 .4
0 .3
0 .3

4 .8
3.1

4 .8
4 .0

3.0
3 .0

2.9
2.9

3.0
3.0

0.2

3.0

2.8

3.0

1 2 9.7
12 9.7
1 3 0 .4

0.1
0 .0

4 .0

16 3.8
16 4 .2
16 4.6

0.2
0 .2

3.9

2 .7
2.7
2 .8

0.9
0 .0
6.7

2 .2
2 .0
2 .4

Apr
May
Jun

156.1
1 5 6 .5
1 5 6 .7

0 .3
0 .3
0.1

3.9
3.1
1.5

2 .8
2.9
2 .8

3.9
3 .8
3 .4

164.9
16 5.3
16 5 .6

0.2
0.2
0 .2

2.2
3.0
2.2

2.7
2.7
2 .7

2.8
2.8
2.7

1 3 0 .6
1 3 0 .8

0 .2

1.9
1.9
3 .7

2 .4
2 .4
2.7

Jul
Aug
Sep

157.1
1 5 7 .4
1 5 7 .9

0 .3

3.1
2 .3
3 .9

2.9

3 .4

1 6 6 .0
16 6.2
166.7

1.5
3.7

2.6
2.7

1 3 1 .2
13 1 .6
1 3 2.0

0 .0

3 .2
3 .3

2 .7
2.6
2 .6

2 .7

2.9
3.1

0.2
0.1
0 .3

2.9

0 .2
0 .3

0 .0
3.7
3.7

2.9
2.9

Oct
Nov
Dec

1 5 8 .3
1 5 8 .8
1 5 9 .2

0 .3
0 .3
0 .3

3.1
3 .9
3.1

3 .0
3 .3
3 .3

3 .3
3 .3
3 .3

1 6 7.0
1 6 7 .4
1 67.7

0 .2
0 .2
0 .2

2.2
2.9
2 .2

2 .5
2 .6
2 .6

2.6
2.7
2.6

1 3 2.5
1 3 2 .7
1 3 3 .4

0 .4
0 .2
0 .5

4 .6
1.8

3.1
3 .0

6.5

2.9

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

1 5 9 .4
1 5 9 .8
1 5 9 .9

0.1
0 .3
0.1

1.5
3.1
0 .8

3 .0
3 .0
2 .8

1.5
2 .3
1.8

167.9
1 6 8.3
1 68.7

0.1
0 .2
0 .2

1.4
2.9
2.9

2 .5
2 .5
2 .5

1.4
2 .2
2 .4

1 3 3.0
1 3 2 .6
1 3 2 .3

-0 .3
-0 .3
-0 .2

-3 .5
-3 .5
-2 .7

2 .5
2 .2
1.5

Apr
May
Jun

1 6 0 .0
1 60.1
1 6 0 .3

0.1
0.1
0.1

0 .8
0 .8
1.5

2 .5
2 .3
2 .3

1.5
1.4
1.4

1 69.2
1 69.5
1 69.7

0 .3
0 .2
0.1

3 .6
2.1
1.4

2 .6
2 .5
2 .5

2 .7
2.6
2 .4

1 3 1 .6
1 3 1 .2
131.1

-0 .5
-0 .3
-0 .1

-6 .2
-3 .6
-0 .9

0 .8
0 .3
- 0 .1

Jul
Aug

1 6 0 .6
1 6 0 .9

0 .2
0 .2

2 .3
2 .3

2.2
2 .2

1.5
1.6

1 70.0
170.1

0 .2
0.1

2.1
0.7

2 .4
2 .3

2 .4
2 .2

1 3 1.0
1 3 1 .4

-0 .1
0 .3

-0 .9
3 .7

-0 .2
-0 .2

1997


26


’

1 3 1 .2

0 .5

0 .2
0 .3

0 .3
0 .3

2 .6

HationalEconomicTrends

Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, prelim inary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com­
plete information. The Purchasing M anagers’ Index is a weighted
average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - Xt.i)IGDP,-if - 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year T reasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total retu rn on
the S tandard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of
the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). C onsum er price
index is for all urban consumers. The consum ption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employm ent Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation p e r h our covers all workers in the non­
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employm ent is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The M ichigan consum er
sentim ent index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’
answers to five questions about their current and expected financial
situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes
about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative
sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investm ent (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.




Pages 16, 17: G overnm ent consum ption and investm ent is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption of government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. O utlays and receipts on these pages are from the
NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on
October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trad e balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods
(merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net
exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The c u rre n t ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: O utput p e r ho u r (Y/H), u nit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per h o u r (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla­
tion. M ultifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustm ents (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). C apital con­
sum ption adjustm ents (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index

,
. . .»

Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

27

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