Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1997
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September 1997 slope at different points. Average growth in business productivity slowed from 3.3 percent annually before 1973 to 1.2 percent annually after 1980. The growth in the labor force slowed from 1.6 percent annually up to 1973 to about 1.4 percent annually since 1980, after the baby boomers had entered the workforce. Correspondingly, GDP slowed from an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent between 1948 and 1973 to an average annual rate of 2.6 percent between 1980 and 1996, primarily reflected in the slowdown in labor productivity growth. (Hours worked grew more slowly than the labor force during the pre-1973 period, reflecting shorter work weeks.) If recent increases in investment in new technolo gy can foster trend productivity gains comparable to the pre-1973 period, then the United States can look forward to a rise in the potential growth rate of the economy, but sustained growth at the 4.9 percent rate seen in the first quarter of 1997 is unrealistic. In the final analysis, the keys to long-run economic growth are the microeconomic incentives that induce individuals to work and firms to invest in production technology, within the limits imposed by demographics and the rate of technological advances. —Donald S. Allen What Determines Long-Run Growth? In the first quarter of 1997, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a surprising 4.9 percent annual rate. The general consensus among economists is that this is not a sustainable rate. So how fast can the economy grow? The level of output of an economy is determined by the level of inputs (land, labor and capital) used and the production methods used to convert the inputs into goods and services. Output can only be increased through additional inputs or more efficient use of available inputs. How fast we can increase inputs is limited, however: Land is essentially fixed. Population growth and participation rates determine the size of the labor force. In less-developed economies, a large fraction of inputs are underutilized and the level of capital is usually low. These economies can grow rapidly by increasing inputs and/or by increasing production efficiency— for example, by moving toward state-of-the-art technology and raising the level of education. A developed economy like the United States, starting from a higher level of input use and efficiency, has less margin for high rates of growth. Innovation and improvements in existing technology are the keys to increased growth rates. The conventional wisdom is that the potential growth rate o f the U.S. economy is between 2.0 and 2.5 percent annually. This range reflects a projected growth in the labor force o f about 1 percent and a trend growth of 1.0 to 1.5 percent in labor productivity (output per hour), which captures capital accumulation and technological improvement. The chart shows the historical index of business labor productivity and the labor force in logarithms, so that the slopes of these graphs are the growth rates. Both variables show a distinct reduction in Labor Force and Business Productivity 34 IIII IIIIIIII IIIIIII 1945 50 55 60 i t i TVT I 65 70 I I I i l I I I I I I I I I i l i r v i "I I I I I 98 75 80 85 Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System 90 95 Note: Average annual rates of growth over each period are shown in parentheses. Trend breaks occur in 1973 and 1980 for productivity and the labor force, respectively. Tabi eofCon ten ts Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on September 2, 1997. 2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The. percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter f is: 4 100 x - 1 Xf-1 For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. National EconomicTrends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate 6 0.5 - .......... —.................... Percent change 0.4 — 0.3 — 0.2 0.1 — 0 .0 f -1 1994 1995 1996 1997 1994 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change 1.8 - ............................................................... Percent 1.2 — 0.6 — L l iL 0.0 'I III d ii 1995 1996 1996 1997 ULIl -0 .6 T 1994 1995 1997 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 1 .........................."I........................... I........................... I.................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 Unemployment Rate Thousands Percent of labor force 600 - 7.0 - ... .............................. 4.5 ~|1994 1995 1996 1997 ...................I........................... I.................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 3 National EconomicTrends Beal Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 10- Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Percent change from year ago 18 Index — 74 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 12 - Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 2 - ■2 i 72 I 73 r 74 ï 75 Digitized 4 for FRASER I 76 T 77 I 78 I....... I .... I " I i........ I I I........I I I I I l I I r i I........l 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 National EconomicTrends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Percent change at annual rate 6 Percent change at annual rate 8 ~'l I Advance Y //////A Final 5 I I Preliminary ■ ■ ■ ! Annual Revision 4 3 2 1 0 96:2 Industrial Production and NAPM Index - 96:4 97:1 97:2 Nominal Gross Domestic Product Index Percent change 1.8 96:3 — .................................... 68 Percent change at annual rate 10 - ..............................................................................................- ......................... 1995 1996 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change 4 - .... Hours 35.0 — 1997 33.5 -[ • 1995 Real Change in Business Inventories Inventory-Sales Ratio Billions of 1992 dollars Manufacturing and trade 1.46 - -2 0 T 1906 1 1996 1 1997 1 1.31 T 1M6 1996 1997 1996 5 National EconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percent change at annual rate 1 0 _ ---------------------------------------------- -4 95Q3 95Q4 96Q1 96Q2 Exports Consumption 1 Imports 96Q3 1 1 Inventories 96Q4 9701 1______ 1 Government V ///A 97Q2 — Real GOP Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 4th 1996_ _ _ _ 1st 2nd 3rd 41|) 3 .0 4 2.22 1.77 5.97 1.03 4.31 4.89 3 .6 2 3.26 1.94 2.56 5.22 0 .1 6 4 .49 3.02 2 .7 7 -0 .2 7 0.31 -0 .8 3 0 .7 8 0 .9 6 -0 .2 9 1.76 0 .8 0 Consumption 1 .7 7 1.22 2.13 2.53 0 .3 5 2 .2 2 3.56 0.67 Fixed investment 0.49 0 .8 3 1 .4 9 2.02 1.46 0 .4 5 0 .5 9 1.91 Nonresidential Residential 0 .1 7 0 .5 1 1 .1 9 • 1.34 1.72 0.66 0 .4 7 1 .6 8 0.31 0 .3 1 0.31 0 .6 6 -0 .1 8 -0 .1 7 0 .1 3 0 .2 7 1995_ _ 3rd Real GDP Final Sales Change in Inventory Government 1997 1st a 2nd -0 .1 4 -1 .0 2 0.32 1 .2 9 -0 .2 0 0 .0 2 -0 .0 8 0 .54 -0 .0 9 -1 .2 3 0 .49 0 .5 8 -0 .2 9 -0 .3 5 -0 .3 8 0 .4 3 -0 .0 5 0.21 - 0 . 1 6- 0.71 0 .0 8 0 .3 7 0 .3 1 0.1 1 Net Exports 1 .1 9 1.00 -1 .4 4 -0 .6 9 -1 .5 1 1.93 -1 .1 8 Exports Imports 1 .5 0 1.32 0.21 0 .2 3 2.89 1 .24 2.41 -0 .3 0 -0 .3 2 -1 .6 5 -1 .8 1 -1 .7 3 -0 .9 4 -2 .3 9 -2 .7 2 -0 .0 0 -0 .1 1 -0 .0 3 -0 .0 8 -0 .1 0 0 .2 0 0 .0 0 Federal State and Local Residual 6 0.1 1 1.13 • -0 .3 6 National EconomicTrends interest Rates Percent Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7.5 - .................................... 4.5 4.0 - ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ H........................................ 3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y 30y Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500 Percent change from year ago 75 - ..................r a m “ 50 T......r....................r...“ t......r......r......P .. r....................i...... i...... i...... i...... i...... i...... i.. "T .....i...... i...... i...... i i...... i ..... i NationalEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change from year ago Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change from year ago Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 8 NationaìEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Perœnt change at annual rate Dollars per barrel 4 ------------------------------------------- 28 - ............ -....... 12 -|................T................T................I................ T................I................) 1992 1993 1994 Consumer Price Index Consumption Chain Price index Percent change 0.5 -..................................... Percent change at annual rate 4 - ............................................................ Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Unit Labor Cost Percent change Forcent change at annual rate 6 - ................................................. 1995 1996 6 1 ....................................T.................................... 1...................... 1995 1996 1 1997 Employment Cost index Compensation perHour Percent change from year ago 8 - .................................................. Percent change at annual rate 6 - ................................................................................................. Benefits 5- 1997 National Economic!rends Employment Percent change from year ago 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force Weeks 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 2.25 10 1.50 8 0.75 6 0.00 4 Digitized 10 for FRASER National Economicifends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands Thousands 60 - ........... 600 - .......... 1996 1995 1997 Change in Household Employment -6 0 ! ................................. I.................................. I..................................I 1995 1996 1997 Labor Force and Population Percent change from year ago Thousands 1000 - .................. 2.5 - .................................................. 750 — 500250 — ■I" 1 | i ......................... 111 -250 — -500 — -750 T ...................... r..................................r..................... 1995 1996 0.0 1997 I 1992 I 1993 I 1994 Unemployment Rate Help-Wanted Advertising Percent Index 6.0 I 1995 I 1996 I 1997 Percent - 4.5 1995 1996 1997 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 11 U a tio na lE co n om icTren ds Real Disposable Income Percent change from year ago, quarterly data Real Consumption Percent change from year ago 72 73 74 75 76 Percent change from year ago 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago of quarterly average Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income Percent 12 Percent 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 National Economicïïends Real Disposable Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change 2 - ....................... „ 1 . ii.ji._ ii h ii^ iim ii I -1 — -2 1996 1995 ' 2 l 1997 1992 f 1993 Real Consumption Real Consumption Percent change 8 - .............................. Percent change 1.6 - .......................................................... 1.2 - 0 .8 - f 1994 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 0.4 I 1 I ~ I Ii I 11 I II I I I i I I . —I . l . **i . l ------------0 .4 - 1995 - 0.8 -,................................ I................................ I.................................I 1995 1996 1997 1997 1996 I ...........■............................................ 1 Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change 2.25 ................. - Percent change Millions of vehicles, annual rate 9 - ............... ...... .................................... ......- ........... ....................- 16.0 6 - ft l Autos and light trucks k A Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index 110 — ■ Percent change i - 15.5 2 0 ..................... 60-, 1992 [ 1993 ' 1994 ' 1995 1 1996 ' 1997 ' ■10 “t.............................. T.............................. T..............................1 1995 1996 1997 13 HationaìEconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Percent change from year ago Real Residential Investment Percent change from year ago 60- http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 8 20 - 6 18 — 4 16 - 2 14 — 0 12 — -2 10 r Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change at annual rate 15 - ...................................................... Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30 — .................................................... -......................... -4 20 -[.................|..................|................. |................. j................. T................. ! 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Real Equipment Investment Real Nonresidential Investment Percent change at annual rate 25 - Percent change at annual rate 20 - ............................ .................................................................................... 1995 1996 1997 Real Residential Investment Housing Starts F’ercent change at annual rate 20 - ................................................ 1.6 Millions, annual rate - ............................................... 15 Nat iona IEconomic Trends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 Percent of GDP 1200 1000 800 600 400 Federal Outlays, 1994 Federal Receipts, 1994 Defense 22.70% Personal Income 39.67% Net Interest 12.90% Social Security 20.24% Other 8.41% Corp. Profit 11.40% Medicare 10.50% Other 28.32% Medicaid 5.33% State and Local Outlays, 1994 Education 37.66% Social Insurance 40.53% State and Local Receipts, 1994 Personal Income 13.82% Corp. Profit 3.15% Sales Income Property .16% Other 10.10% Medical Care 17.32% Other 19.13% Transportation 6.80% 16 Social Insurance 7.73% Safety 10.44% Federal Grants 20.99% National Economic frenc/s Gross Federal Debt Federal Deficit Percent of GDP 70 - .......* ...... Percent of GDP 2 0 1 ....... T “ ..i.........I........ f ... I ...... i........I........ ì ........r ...I........i........i 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 Change in Gross Federal Debt Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 300 — «s' 150- 0 -^ 150 1 .......T '" ...I........ I........ r .... T""".... T........ 1........ 1........ 1" 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 I 92 1........ 1 94 96 Government Budgets Billions of dollars Unified Budget National Income Accounts Calendar Years State and Local Receipts Expenditures 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Fiscal Years Federal Surplus or Delicit(-) Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deficit)-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) 3 6 1 .4 2 9 1 .9 69.5 5 6 1 .5 6 2 2 .5 -6 1 .0 5 1 7 .1 5 9 0 .9 3 9 0 .8 3 2 2 .5 6 8.3 6 4 9 .3 7 0 7 .1 -5 7 .8 5 9 9 .3 6 7 8 .2 -7 9 .0 4 0 9 .0 3 5 7 .7 5 1 .3 6 4 6 .4 7 8 1 .0 -1 3 4 .6 6 1 7 .8 7 4 5 .8 -1 2 8 .0 4 4 3 .6 3 7 8 .8 64.8 6 7 1 .9 8 4 6 .3 -1 7 4 .4 6 0 0 .6 8 0 8 .4 -2 0 7 .8 4 9 2 .0 4 0 5 .1 86.9 7 4 6 .9 9 0 2 .9 -1 5 6 .0 6 6 6 .5 8 5 1 .8 -1 8 5 .4 -7 3 .8 5 2 8 .7 4 3 7 .8 9 0.9 81 1.3 9 7 4 .2 -1 6 2 .9 7 3 4 .1 9 4 6 .4 -2 1 2 .3 5 7 0 .6 4 7 5 .7 9 4.9 8 5 0 .1 1 0 27.6 -1 7 7 .5 7 6 9 .1 9 9 0 .3 -2 2 1 .2 5 9 4 .9 51 1.1 8 3 .8 9 3 7 .4 10 66.3 -1 2 8 .9 8 5 4 .1 10 0 3.9 -1 4 9 .8 6 3 1 .4 5 4 5 .5 8 5.9 9 9 7 .2 1 1 1 8 .5 -1 2 1 .3 9 0 9 .0 1 0 6 4 .1 -1 5 5 .2 6 8 1 .0 5 8 5 .9 95.1 1079.3 1 1 9 2 .7 - 1 13.4 9 9 0 .7 1 1 4 3.2 -1 5 2 .5 7 2 8 .9 6 4 8 .8 80.1 1 1 2 9 .8 1 2 84.5 -1 5 4 .7 1 0 3 1.3 1 2 5 2.5 -2 2 1 .2 7 8 4 .2 7 0 8 .4 7 5 .8 1 14 9 .0 1345.0 -1 9 6 .0 1 0 5 4.3 1 3 2 3.6 -2 6 9 .4 8 4 4 .3 7 5 8 .0 8 6 .3 1 1 9 8 .5 147 9.4 -2 8 0 .9 1 0 9 0.5 13 8 0.9 -2 9 0 .4 8 9 4 .4 8 0 7 .0 8 7 .4 1 2 7 5 .1 15 25.7 -2 5 0 .6 1 1 5 3 .5 1 4 0 8.7 -2 5 5 .1 9 4 9 .2 8 5 2 .3 9 6.9 1 3 74.8 156 1.4 -1 8 6 .6 1 2 5 7.7 1 4 6 0.8 -2 0 3 .1 9 9 9 .0 8 9 5 .9 103.1 1463.2 16 37.6 -1 7 4 .4 1 3 5 1.5 1 5 1 5.4 -1 6 3 .9 1587.6 1 6 9 8.1 -1 1 0 .5 1 4 5 2.8 1 5 6 0 .1 -1 0 7 .3 1043.4 9 3 8 .0 1 0 5 .4 17 National EconomicTrends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars Exchange Rates 100 x (Deutsche mark/US$) YenAJSS Index, March 1973-100 Goods Export Shares, 1996 Mexico 9.28% Digitized 18 for FRASER Germany 3.84% France UK 2.36% 5.06% Goods Import Shares, 1996 National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 25 - ............................................... ■ ,6 -2 0 ................................7...|.................................... ].............. ~~~.. 1995 1996 1997 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars 0 Percent change from year ago 25 - ..................................... 20- -1 0 Exports -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 -5 0 , 1995 1996 1995 1997 1996 1997 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Percent change at annual rate Germany United Kingdom 8 - .................................................................................................. 9 - ........................................................... 6 - .................................................................................................. 42 0 - ~2 1 1995 1996 1997 Fiance Canada 8 8 - ......................................................... 6 6 - ......................................................... 4 2 0 -2 Mexico 20- 19 Nat ional Economic Trends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent change from year ago Percent 90 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 10 Nominal 5 0 Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 5.0 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0 20 National EconomicTrends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Percent change at annual rate Percent change at annual rate 6 - ........................................................... 4 - ................................................... - 4 - ................................................................................................... _ 4 'i.................................... I.....................................I...................... 1995 1996 “ 6 1 .....................................1..................................... 1....................... 1997 1995 1996 1997 Selected Component Shares of National Income Percent - 75 Percent Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 80n n - Nonfinancial National EconomicTrends Nominal GDP Real GDP 1992 1993 1994 6 2 4 4.4 5.5 6 2 4 4 .4 4 2 2.7 6237.441 2.5 -2 .9 7 7 6558.1 5.0 6 3 8 9.5 6 3 2 .3 6 3 6 8 .8 6 4 2.1 7 .0 0 1 6 9 4 7.0 5.9 6610.741 3.5 655 1.2 4 7 2 .9 2 2 .10 2 1995 1996 7 2 6 5 .4 4.6 6 7 4 2.0 6 2 2.0 6 7 1 2.6 7 2 2.5 60 .55 2 7 6 3 6 .0 5.1 6 9 2 8.3 9 6 2.8 6 9 0 0.9 8 0 2.8 27.341 1995 1996 1997 6 7 9 4.3 5.5 5.4 6 5 2 4.5 0 5 3.0 3.1 6 4 7 3.0 2 9 1.2 2.8 53.061 691 1.4 7.1 6.2 6 6 0 0.3 1 3 4 .7 3.8 6 5 26.671 3.4 2 .9 75 .89 6 1 6 .64 4 3 4 6 9 8 6.5 4.4 6 .3 6 6 2 9.4 7 4 1.8 3.7 6 5 8 0.3 7 6 3 .3 3 .2 49 .66 2 15.28 3 7 0 9 5.7 6.4 5.8 6 6 8 8.6 0 9 3.6 3.3 6 6 2 4.8 4 8 2 .7 2 .7 _ 6 3 .5 9 0 2 4 .17 9 53.061 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1 2 3 4 1995 1996 1997 Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 32.301 7 1 6 8.9 4.2 5 .5 6703.721 0.9 2.7 6 6 5 4.2 8 9 1.8 2 .8 48 .47 9 7 2 0 9 .5 2.3 4.3 6708.841 0 .3 1.6 6685.2 8 9 1.9 2.4 2 1 .6 3 8 75 .89 6 73 0 1.3 5.2 4.5 6 7 5 9 .2 3 4 3 .0 2.0 6 7 3 9.3 0 6 3.3 2.4 17.02 3 49 .66 2 73 8 1.9 4.5 4.0 6 7 9 6.5 1 3 2 .2 1.6 6771.9 2 7 2.0 2.2 22 .22 3 6 3 .5 9 0 74 6 7.5 4.7 4.2 6 8 2 6.3 6 2 1.8 1.8 6 8 1 4.9 6 6 2.6 2.4 8.0 39 48 .47 9 76 0 7.7 7.7 5.5 692 6.0 2 3 6 .0 3.2 6 9 0 2.2 9 0 5.2 3.2 21 .28 8 2 1 .63 8 7 6 7 6.0 3.6 5.1 6 9 4 3.8 2 0 1.0 2.7 6 9 0 5 .0 3 4 0.2 2.5 37 .90 3 17.02 3 7 7 9 2.9 6.2 5.6 7 0 1 7 .3 7 9 4 .3 3.2 6 9 8 1.6 9 2 4.5 3.1 3 2 .92 2 22 .22 3 7 9 3 3.6 7.4 6.2 710 1.6 1 7 4.9 4.0 7 0 3 4 .0 8 7 3.0 3.2 6 3 .65 7 8.0 39 8 0 3 5 .2 5.2 5.6 7 1 6 5.0 6 0 3 .6 3.5 7 0 8 2 .6 7 7 2.8 2.6 7 7 .7 3 7 2 1 .28 8 Consumption 1994 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 $ 1994 Durables Consumption Nonresidential Investment Private Fixed Investment Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual ago rate Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago 2.8 4 8 8 .5 3 0 5.8 7 8 3 .4 2 7 5 .7 5 5 7 .8 6 9 1.9 4 3 4 3.5 6 3 2 .9 4 4 8 5 .9 8 1 3.3 52 3 .8 4 1 7.2 8 4 2 .7 7 2 7 .6 6 0 0 .1 6 7 7.6 5 6 1 .1 8 9 7.1 9 1 5 .5 3 6 8 .6 64 8 .3 6 1 4 5 9 5.2 7 3 8.0 2.4 5 8 3 .5 9 8 4.0 9 6 2 .1 19 5.1 7 0 6 .5 1 3 4 7 1 4.0 6 1 9.0 2.6 61 1 . 1 0 7 4.7 1 0 4 1 .6 9 9 8 .3 7 7 1 .6 8 3 9.2 3.6 5 50.661 9.2 8 8 7 .7 9 5 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 4 2 1 9.7 9 6 4 4 3 9.4 3 6 3 .8 4 4 7 2 .2 2 4 3 .0 3 .5 5 5 5 .7 9 6 3 .8 7.0 9 1 3 .1 7 8 4 4 9 8.2 1 8 2.3 3.0 561 .7 4 1 4 .3 6.0 9 2 2 .7 1 2 4 5 3 4.1 2 9 3 .2 3.1 5 7 6 .5 6 3 1 1.0 6.3 9 3 8 .4 6 7 6 .4 9.0 62 6 .1 9 1 0.4 8.4 1 1 .9 9.9 6 4 1 .2 0 9 9 .9 7.8 4.2 9.3 6 5 3 .1 5 3 7.7 8.5 7 .0 6.6 6 7 2 .8 9 0 1 2 .6 7.6 3.2 4 5 5 1 .3 0 3 1 .5 2 .5 5 7 2 .2 3 0 -3 .0 3.9 9 5 5 .8 2 0 7.6 7.7 6 9 5 .6 7 4 1 4 .2 1 1.1 4 5 8 3.4 5 8 2.9 2 .5 5 7 7 .7 0 6 3.9 3.9 9 5 4 .0 3 4 -0 .7 4.5 7 0 5 .3 5 3 5.7 10.0 4 6 1 2.9 1 2 2.6 2 .5 5 9 0 .7 5 5 9 .3 5 .2 9 6 2 .3 1 5 3.5 4.3 7 0 8 .2 3 1 1.6 8.4 4 6 3 3 .4 6 3 1.8 2 .2 593 .7 0 1 2.0 3 .0 9 7 6 .3 1 5 5 .9 4.0 7 1 6 .8 0 0 4 .9 6.5 4 6 6 9 .3 7 3 3.1 2 .6 6 0 0 .6 6 2 4 .8 5 .0 1 0 0 1.5 3 3 1 0 .7 4.8 7 3 6 .9 3 9 1 1.7 5 .9 4 7 1 2 .2 0 4 3.7 2 .8 61 4 .7 7 1 9 .7 6.4 1035.6 8 3 14.4 8.6 7 5 9 .7 3 4 13.0 7 .7 4 7 1 8 .1 9 6 0.5 2.3 6 1 1 .8 6 4 -1 .9 3.6 1060.8 8 6 10.1 10.2 7 8 9 .2 9 0 16.5 1 1.4 8 0 0 .7 7 1 5.9 1 1.7 2.7 6 17.131 5 .3 3.2 1.0 2.5 4 7 5 6.4 2 7 3.3 4 8 1 8 .0 7 9 48 2 9.9 7 9 22 Final Sales Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Percent chanae Annual Billions Year rate of $ ago 3 .5 3 .9 1068.6 9 6 6 3 7 .7 6 6 14.1 6.2 1 0 7 9.0 0 6 3 .9 7.7 8 0 8 .9 3 2 4.1 9.8 6 2 9 .0 1 2 -5 .4 2.3 1 1 1 2 .6 0 7 13.1 7.4 8 3 8 .5 0 5 15.4 10.4 3.0 9.5 NationaìEconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Index Employment Cost Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index ECI: Wages Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year ago rate 1992 1 0 0 .0 0 0 2.8 1 1 4 .3 3 .7 1 1 1 .9 2 .9 1 2 0 .5 5 .5 1993 1994 1 0 2 .6 4 3 2.6 1 1 8 .4 3.6 1 1 5 .2 2 .9 1 2 7 .0 5.4 1 0 5 .0 8 8 2.4 1 2 2 .3 3 .3 118 .5 2 .9 1 3 2 .0 4.0 1 0 7 .7 6 3 2.5 1 2 5 .6 2 .8 1 2 1 .9 2.9 1 3 5 .0 2.2 1 1 0 .22 4 2.3 1 2 9 .2 2.8 1 2 5 .9 3.3 1 3 7 .4 1.8 1995 1996 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 2 1 0 4 .1 5 6 2.5 2.3 1 2 0 .8 3.0 3 .3 1 17.1 2.1 2.8 1 3 0 .3 4.4 4.3 1 0 4 .7 3 6 2 .2 2.3 1 2 1 .8 3 .4 3 .3 1 18.1 3 .5 3.1 1 3 1 .5 3.7 4.0 3 4 1 0 5 .3 9 1 2.5 2.5 1 2 2 .8 3.3 3 .3 1 19.0 3.1 2 .9 1 3 2 .8 4.0 4.0 1 0 6 .0 7 1 2.6 2.5 1 2 3 .6 2.6 3.1 1 1 9 .8 2 .7 2.8 1 3 3 .5 2.1 3.6 1 2 3 4 1 0 6 .9 3 3 3.3 2.7 1 2 4 .4 2.6 3 .0 120 .6 2 .7 3.0 13 3 .9 1.2 2 .8 1 0 7 .4 8 5 2.1 2.6 1 2 5 .2 2 .6 2 .8 1 21 .5 3.0 2 .9 1 3 4 .6 2.1 2 .4 1 0 8 .0 3 1 2 .0 2 .5 1 2 6 .0 2.6 2 .6 1 2 2 .4 3.0 2 .9 1 3 5 .3 2.1 1.9 1 0 8 .6 0 3 2.1 2.4 12 6 .9 2 .9 2 .7 123 .2 2.6 2 .8 1 3 6 .0 2.1 1.9 1 0 9 .3 4 9 2.8 2 .3 12 7 .7 2 .5 2 .7 1 24 .4 4.0 3.2 1 3 6 .0 0.0 1.6 1 2 3 4 1 2 - 1 0 9 .8 5 7 1.9 2.2 1 2 8 .8 3.5 2 .9 125 .5 3.6 3.3 1 3 7 .0 3.0 1.8 1 10.58 8 2 .7 2 .4 1 2 9 .7 2.8 2 .9 1 2 6 .4 2 .9 3.3 1 3 7 .7 2.1 1.8 1 1 1.103 1.9 2.3 1 3 0 .6 2.8 2 .9 1 2 7 .4 3 .2 3.4 1 3 8 .7 2.9 2.0 1 1 1.775 2.4 2.2 1 3 1 .4 2 .5 2.9 1 2 8 .5 3 .5 3 .3 1 3 8 .7 0 .0 2.0 1 12.200 1.5 2.1 132 .5 3.4 2 .9 1 2 9 .7 3.8 3.3 1 3 9 .7 2 .9 2.0 Exports Billions of 1992 $ 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1 2 3 4 1995 1 2 3 4 1996 1 - 2 3 4 1997 1 2 Imports Percent change Annual Year ago rate Billions of 1992 $ 6 3 9 .4 1 6 » 6 5 8 .1 8 3 7 1 2 .3 9 9 Nonfarm Output per Hour Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 6 .6 * 6 6 8 .9 5 9 7 .5 10 0 .0 3.2 1 0 0 .0 5 .2 2.9 7 2 8 .4 0 9 8 .9 100.1 0.1 1 0 2 .3 2 .3 8.2 8 1 7 .0 2 6 1 2 .2 10 0 .5 0 .4 104.1 1 .8 10 0 .7 0.2 1 0 6 .7 2 .5 1 .3 1 10.1 3 .2 7 9 1 .2 1 3 11.1 8 9 0 .0 5 7 8 .9 8 5 7 .0 2 2 8.3 9 7 1 .4 6 9 9.1 10 2 .0 6 7 6 .0 2 9 -1 .8 4.4 7 7 3 .6 3 8 7.6 1 0 .2 1 0 0 .6 -0 .8 0.5 1 0 3 .8 3.1 ' 2 .2 7 0 4 .1 3 1 1 7 .7 6.7 8 0 8 .0 2 2 1 9 .0 1 1 .8 1 0 0 .7 0.4 1.1 1 0 3 .9 0.4 1.8 7 2 2 .1 0 5 1 0 .6 1 1.7 8 3 3 .2 2 9 13.1 1 4 .2 1 0 0 .4 -1 .2 0.4 104 .2 1.2 1.7 7 4 7 .3 3 0 1 4 .7 10.0 8 5 3 .1 9 7 9.9 12.3 1 0 0 .8 1 .6 0.0 1 0 5 .0 3.1 1.9 7 6 0 .3 6 8 7.2 1 2 .5 8 7 3 .8 6 1 10.0 1 3 .0 1 0 0 .3 -2 .0 -0.3 105 .6 2.3 1.7 7 7 7 .4 4 7 9.3 10.4 8 9 0 .2 8 4 7.7 1 0 .2 1 0 0 .5 0 .8 ■0.2 •1 0 6 .4 3.1 2 .4 8 0 2 .4 3 5 1 3 .5 11.1 8 9 5 .3 6 8 2.3 7 .5 100 .8 1 .2 0 .4 107.1 2.7 2 .8 1 0 .3 9 0 0 .7 2 0 2 .4 5 .6 1 01 .2 1 .6 0.4 1 0 7 .9 3.0 2 .8 8 2 4 .6 0 4 1 1.5 8 2 8 .1 7 8 1.7 8 .9 9 2 8 .9 6 3 13.1 6 .3 101 .7 2.0 1 .4 » 108 .7 3 .0 2 .9 8 4 7 .4 4 4 9 .6 9 .0 9 6 0 .0 4 3 14.1 7.8 102 .2 2 .0 1.7 109 .8 4.1 3 .2 8 5 1 .3 8 2 1.9 6.1 9 9 0 .2 4 0 1 3 .2 1 0 .6 1 02 .0 -0 .8 1.2 1 1 0 .6 2.9 3 .3 9 0 1 .0 7 1 25.5 9 .3 100 6.6 2 3 6 .8 1 1 .8 1 0 2 .4 1.6 1 .2 1 1 1.5 3.3 3 .3 9 2 2 .6 5 2 9.9 1 1.4 1048.941 1 7 .9 1 2 .9 1 02 .8 1.6 1.1 1 1 2 .8 4.7 3 .8 9 6 5 .0 1 3 1 9 .7 1 3 .9 109 7.7 4 2 1 9 .9 1 4 .3 1 0 2 .9 0 .4 0 .7 1 1 3 .6 2.9 3 .5 23 National EconomicTrends Household Survey Employment Thousands Change 1995 1996 1997 Nonfarm Payroll Employment Percent chanae Year Annual ago rate Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent chanae Annual Year Thousands Change ago rate Index Percent chanae Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 118488 775 0 .7 108591 336 0.3 121.0 0.7 1 2 0 25 9 1771 1.5 1 10707 2116 1.9 124.5 2.9 123067 2808 2.3 114145 34 3 8 3.1 129.8 4.2 1 2 4 89 9 1833 1.5 11 7195 3051 2.7 133.4 2.8 1 2 6 70 5 1806 1.4 1 19517 2322 2.0 136.4 2.2 1 2 3 4 124924 519 1.7 2.4 116482 873 3.1 3.4 133.0 0.8 3.2 124711 -213 -0 .7 1.7 116937 455 1.6 2.9 132.9 -0.1 -0 .4 2.7 12 4 8 2 0 109 0.4 1.3 117414 478 1.6 2.4 133.6 0.6 2.3 2.5 12 5 1 4 2 322 1.0 0.6 117949 5 34 1.8 2.0 134.2 0.4 1.7 1.7 1 2 3 4 125693 551 1.8 0.6 118471 522 1.8 1.7 134.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 126381 688 2.2 1.3 119248 778 2.7 2.0 136.1 1.3 5.5 2.5 1 2 7 04 2 661 2.1 1.8 119898 649 2.2 2.1 137.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 127705 6 64 2.1 2.0 120452 555 1.9 2.1 138.1 0.8 3.1 2.9 1 2 128728 1023 3.2 2.4 121138 686 2.3 2.3 139.5 1.0 4.1 3.8 129462 734 2.3 2.4 121856 717 2.4 2.2 140.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 1995 Jul Aug Sep 4.3 124804 271 2.6 1.7 1 17142 78 0.8 2.5 133.6 0.5 5.5 2.6 12 4 72 9 -7 5 -0 .7 1.2 117465 323 3.4 2.4 133.4 -0.1 -1 .8 2.5 1 2 4 92 7 198 1.9 1.1 117636 171 1.8 2.3 133.9 0 .4 4.6 2.4 Oct Nov Dec 125235 308 3.0 1.0 117775 139 1.4 2.2 134.4 0 .4 4.6 1.8 125124 -1 11 -1.1 0.5 117951 176 1.8 2.0 1 34.3 -0.1 -0 .9 1.9 125068 -5 6 -0 .5 0.3 1 18120 169 1.7 1.9 133.9 -0 .3 -3 .5 1.4 1996 Jan Feb Mar 125311 243 2.4 0.4 118058 -6 2 -0 .6 1.6 132.5 -1 .0 -11 .8 -0.8 1 2 5 70 6 395 3.8 0.6 1 18550 492 5.1 1.7 135.1 2.0 2 6 .3 1.9 1 2 6 06 2 356 3.5 0.8 1 18804 2 54 2.6 1.8 135.4 0.2 2.7 2.0 Apr May Jun 1 2 6 12 5 63 0.6 0.9 118966 162 1.6 1.8 135.1 -0 .2 -2 .6 1.0 1 2 6 42 8 3 03 2.9 1.5 119263 297 3.0 2.1 135.7 0.4 5.5 2.9 1 2 6 59 0 162 1.5 1.7 119516 253 2.6 2.1 137.6 1.4 18.2 3.5 Jul Aug Sep 1 2 6 88 9 2 99 2.9 1.7 119691 175 1.8 2.2 136.1 -1.1 -1 2 .3 1.9 126988 99 0.9 1.8 119983 292 3.0 2.1 137.1 0.7 9.2 2.8 127248 260 2.5 1.9 120019 36 0.4 2.0 137.9 0.6 7.2 3.0 Oct Nov Dec 127617 369 3.5 1.9 120248 229 2.3 2.1 137.2 -0 .5 -5 .9 2.1 127644 27 0.3 2.0 120450 202 2.0 2.1 137.9 0.5 6.3 2.7 127855 21 1 2.0 2.2 120659 209 2.1 2.1 139.1 0.9 11.0 3.9 4.3 1997 Jan Feb Mar 128580 725 7.0 2.6 120909 250 2.5 2.4 138.2 -0 .6 -7 .5 128430 -1 5 0 -1 .4 2.2 121162 253 2.5 2.2 140.0 1.3 16.8 3.6 129175 745 7.2 2.5 121344 182 1.8 2.1 140.2 0.1 1.7 3.5 Apr May Jun 129384 j 209 2.0 2.6 121671 327 3.3 2.3 139.6 -0 .4 -5 .0 3.3 12 9 63 9 255 2.4 2.5 12 1834 163 1.6 2.2 140.0 0.3 3.5 3.2 129364 -2 7 5 -2 .5 2.2 12 2062 228 2.3 2.1 140.6 0.4 5.3 2.2 Jul 129708 344 3.2 2.2 122378 316 3.2 2.2 139.9 -0 .5 -5 .8 2 .8 24 National Economicïïends Retail Sales Unempl. Rate Billions of dollars Industrial Production Percent chanoe Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Index Percent chanoe Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields 3 -m o 1 0 -y r 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 7.5 1 9 4 4.6 0 5 4.8 10 0 .0 0 0 3.2 3.43 7.01 6.9 2071.178 6.5 1 0 3.3 66 3.4 3.00 5 .8 6 1 2 3 4 5.5 5 7 3 .1 3 7 0.2 5.6 5 7 8 .6 8 0 1.0 5.7 5 8 5 .1 4 6 1.1 5.6 5 8 9 .5 7 3 1 2 3 4 5.6 5.4 1 2 5.3 6 3 5 .5 9 7 4.9 6 3 0 .0 4 3 1995 Jul Aug Sep 5.7 19 4 .3 1 5 -0.1 5.7 195.7 52 0.7 5.7 195.0 79 Oct Nov Dec 5.5 5.6 5.6 1995 1996 1997 1996 Jan Feb Mar 6.1 2224.913 7.4 1 0 8.5 58 5.0 4.25 7 .0 8 5.6 2326.536 4.6 112.109 3.3 5.49 6 .5 8 5.4 2439.5 81 4.9 1 15.198 2.8 5.01 6 .4 4 0.8 5.6 1 11.764 1.0 3.9 5.1 5 .7 4 7 .4 8 3.9 5.2 1 11.561 -0 .2 -0 .7 3.3 5.60 6 .6 2 4.5 4.5 1 12.441 0.8 3.2 3.0 5.37 6 .3 2 0.8 3.1 3.1 1 12.671 0.2 0.8 1.8 5 .2 6 5.89 6 0 0 .4 8 4 1.9 7.6 4.8 1 13.128 0.4 1.6 1.2 4.93 5.91 609.371 1.5 6.1 5.3 1 14.844 1.5 6.2 2.9 5 .0 2 6 .7 2 5.3 6 1 0 .7 6 6 0.2 0.9 4.4 1 15.774 0.8 3.3 3.0 5 .1 0 6 .7 8 5.3 6 1 8 .9 6 0 1.3 5.5 5.0 1 17.048 1.1 4.5 3.9 4.98 6 .3 4 2.7 1 1.2 5.8 1 18.326 1.1 4.4 4.6 5 .0 6 6 .5 6 -0 .9 -3 .4 3.4 1 19.417 0.9 3.7 4.0 5.05 6 .7 0 -1 .2 5.3 111.7 16 -0 .0 -0 .2 2.4 5 .4 2 6.28 9.2 4.5 1 12.603 0.8 10.0 3.1 5 .4 0 6.49 -0 .3 -4 .0 3.8 1 13.003 0.4 4.3 3.4 5 .2 8 6 .2 0 1 94.8 65 -0.1 -1 .3 2.3 1 12.522 -0 .4 -5 .0 2.3 5 .2 8 6 .0 4 196.7 02 0.9 1 1.9 3.1 1 12.704 0.2 2.0 1.9 5 .3 6 5 .9 3 1 98.0 06 0.7 8.3 3.8 1 12.788 0.1 0.9 1.1 5 .1 4 5.71 -0.1 5.7 1 9 7 .7 1 4 -1 .8 2.6 1 12.361 -0 .4 -4 .4 0.4 5 .0 0 5 .6 5 5.5 2 0 1 .0 8 5 1.7 22.5 6.1 1 13.782 1.3 1 6.3 1.9 4 .8 3 5.81 5.5 2 0 1 .6 8 5 0.3 3.6 5.6 1 13.241 -0 .5 -5 .6 1.4 4.96 6 .2 7 Apr May Jun 5.5 2 0 2 .4 9 6 0.4 4.9 6.0 1 14.284 0.9 1 1.6 2.6 4.95 6.51 5.5 2 0 4 .1 7 7 0.8 10.4 5.8 1 14.782 0.4 5.4 2.9 5.02 6 .7 4 5.3 2 0 2 .6 9 8 -0 .7 -8 .4 4.2 1 15.466 0.6 7.4 3.3 5.09 6.91 Jul Aug Sep 5.4 2 0 3 .0 1 7 0.2 1.9 4.5 1 15.495 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.15 6.87 5.2 2 0 3 .0 3 6 0.0 0.1 3.7 1 15.848 0.3 3.7 2.9 5 .0 5 6 .6 4 5.2 2 0 4 .7 1 3 0.8 10.4 4.9 1 15.978 0.1 1.4 2.6 5.09 6 .8 3 Oct Nov Dec 5.2 20 6 .2 7 7 0.8 9.6 5.9 1 16.231 0.2 2.6 3.3 4.99 6 .5 3 5.3 2 0 5 .7 8 9 -0 .2 -2 .8 4.6 1 17.216 0.8 10.7 4.0 5.03 6.2 0 5.3 2 0 6 .8 9 4 0.5 6.6 4.5 1 17.697 0.4 5.0 4.4 4.91 6.30 5.4 2 1 0 .2 3 3 1.6 21.2 6.3 1 17.765 0.1 0.7 4.8 5.03 6.5 8 5.3 2 1 3 .0 2 2 1.3 17.1 5.9 1 18.366 0.5 6.3 4.0 5.01 6.42 5.2 2 1 2 .3 4 2 -0 .3 -3 .8 5.3 1 18.846 0.4 5.0 4.9 5 .1 4 6.69 1997 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 4.9 2 0 9 .9 3 4 -1.1 -12 .8 3.7 119.331 0.4 5.0 4.4 5.16 6.89 4.8 2 0 9 .3 7 0 -0 .3 -3 .2 2.5 1 19.304 -0 .0 -0 .3 3.9 5.05 6.71 5.0 2 1 0 .7 3 9 0.7 8.1 4.0 1 19.615 0.3 3.2 3.6 4.93 6.49 Jul 4.8 2 1 2 .0 7 5 0.6 7.9 4.5 1 19.81 1 0.2 2.0 3.7 5.05 6.22 25 National Economicïïends rroaucer rnce maex vvJiiauiiici nice i r m Consumer Price Index Index 1995 1996 1997 less Food and Energy Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 140.4 3.0 147.5 3.7 123.2 1.2 144.6 3.0 152.4 3.3 124.7 1.2 148.3 2.6 156.7 2.8 125.6 0.7 152.5 2.8 161.4 3.0 127.9 1.9 157.0 2.9 165.8 2.7 131.3 2.6 1 2 3 4 151.0 0.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 159.6 0.8 3.3 3.0 3.3 127.1 0.7 3.0 1.7 152.1 0.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 161.0 0.8 3.4 3.0 3.4 127.6 0.4 1.7 2.0 152.9 0.5 2.1 2.6 2.7 162.0 0.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 128.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 153.9 0.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 163.1 0.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 129.0 0.7 2.9 2.2 1 2 3 4 155.1 0.8 3.3 2.8 3.3 164.2 0.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 129.9 0.7 3.0 2.2 156.4 0.8 3.4 2.8 3.4 165.3 0.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 130.9 0.7 2.9 2.5 157.5 0.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 166.3 0.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 131.6 0.6 2.3 2.8 158.8 0.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 167.4 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 132.9 1.0 3.9 3.0 159.7 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 168.3 0.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 132.6 -0 .2 -0 .7 2.1 160.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 1.7 169.5 0.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 131.3 -1 .0 -4 .0 0.3 1 2 1995 Jul Aug Sep 152.6 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.6 161.6 0.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 127.9 0.2 1.9 1.8 153.0 0.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 162.0 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.2 127.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 153.2 0.1 1.6 2.5 2.6 162.4 0.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 128.3 0.3 3.8 1.8 Oct Nov Dec 153.7 0.3 4.0 2.7 2.7 162.9 0.3 3.8 3.1 3.3 128.5 0.2 1.9 2.4 153.8 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.5 163.1 0.1 1.5 3.0 3.1 128.8 0.2 2.8 2.1 154.1 0.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 163.4 0.2 2.2 3.0 3.0 129.6 0.6 7.7 2.2 1996 Jan Feb Mar 154.7 0.4 4.8 2.7 4.8 163.8 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 129.7 0.1 0.9 2.2 155.1 0.3 3.1 2.7 4.0 164.2 0.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 129.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 155.6 0.3 3.9 2.8 4.0 164.6 0.2 3.0 2.8 3.0 130.4 0.5 6.7 2.4 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1997 Jan Feb Mar 156.1 0.3 3.9 2.8 3.9 164.9 0.2 2.2 2.7 2.8 130.6 0.2 1.9 2.4 156.5 0.3 3.1 2.9 3.8 165.3 0.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 130.8 0.2 1.9 2.4 156.7 0.1 1.5 2.8 3.4 165.6 0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 131.2 0.3 3.7 2.7 157.1 0.3 3.1 2.9 3.4 166.0 0.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 131.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 157.4 0.2 2.3 2.9 3.2 166.2 0.1 1.5 2.6 2.6 131.6 0.3 3.7 2.9 157.9 0.3 3.9 3.1 3.3 166.7 0.3 3.7 2.6 2.7 132.0 0.3 3.7 2.9 158.3 0.3 3.1 3.0 3.3 167.0 0.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 132.5 0.4 4.6 3.1 158.8 0.3 3.9 3.3 3.3 167.4 0.2 2.9 2.6 2.7 132.7 0.2 1.8 3.0 159.2 0.3 3.1 3.3 3.3 167.7 0.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 133.4 0.5 6.5 2.9 159.4 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.5 167.9 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.4 133.0 -0 .3 -3 .5 2.5 159.8 0.3 3.1 3.0 2.3 168.3 0.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 132.6 -0 .3 -3 .5 2.2 159.9 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.8 168.7 0.2 2.9 2.5 2.4 132.3 -0 .2 -2 .7 1.5 160.0 Apr May Jun 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.5 169.2 0.3 3.6 2.6 2.7 131.6 -0 .5 -6 .2 0.8 160.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.4 169.5 0.2 2.1 2.5 2.6 131.2 -0 .3 -3 .6 0.3 160.3 0.1 1.5 2.3 1.4 169.7 0.1 1.4 2.5 2.4 131.1 -0 .1 -0 .9 -0.1 Jul 160.6 0.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 170.0 0.2 2.1 2.4 2.4 131.0 -0 .1 -0.9 -0 .2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 26 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis UationalEconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.i)/GDPt./)4 - 1]. The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of the index plus the percent change in the index. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal) . Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-populatioa ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differendy. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component o f GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa tion per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac ity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.
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