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September 1997

slope at different points. Average growth in business
productivity slowed from 3.3 percent annually before
1973 to 1.2 percent annually after 1980. The growth
in the labor force slowed from 1.6 percent annually
up to 1973 to about 1.4 percent annually since 1980,
after the baby boomers had entered the workforce.
Correspondingly, GDP slowed from an average annual
growth rate of 3.9 percent between 1948 and 1973 to
an average annual rate of 2.6 percent between 1980
and 1996, primarily reflected in the slowdown in
labor productivity growth. (Hours worked grew more
slowly than the labor force during the pre-1973 period,
reflecting shorter work weeks.)
If recent increases in investment in new technolo­
gy can foster trend productivity gains comparable to
the pre-1973 period, then the United States can look
forward to a rise in the potential growth rate of the
economy, but sustained growth at the 4.9 percent rate
seen in the first quarter of 1997 is unrealistic. In the
final analysis, the keys to long-run economic growth
are the microeconomic incentives that induce individuals
to work and firms to invest in production technology,
within the limits imposed by demographics and the
rate of technological advances.
—Donald S. Allen

What Determines
Long-Run Growth?
In the first quarter of 1997, real gross domestic
product (GDP) grew at a surprising 4.9 percent annual
rate. The general consensus among economists is that
this is not a sustainable rate. So how fast can the
economy grow?
The level of output of an economy is determined
by the level of inputs (land, labor and capital) used
and the production methods used to convert the inputs
into goods and services. Output can only be increased
through additional inputs or more efficient use of
available inputs. How fast we can increase inputs is
limited, however: Land is essentially fixed. Population
growth and participation rates determine the size of
the labor force.
In less-developed economies, a large fraction of
inputs are underutilized and the level of capital is usually
low. These economies can grow rapidly by increasing
inputs and/or by increasing production efficiency— for
example, by moving toward state-of-the-art technology
and raising the level of education. A developed economy
like the United States, starting from a higher level of
input use and efficiency, has less margin for high rates
of growth. Innovation and improvements in existing
technology are the keys to increased growth rates.
The conventional wisdom is that the potential
growth rate o f the U.S. economy is between 2.0 and
2.5 percent annually. This range reflects a projected
growth in the labor force o f about 1 percent and a
trend growth of 1.0 to 1.5 percent in labor productivity
(output per hour), which captures capital accumulation
and technological improvement.
The chart shows the historical index of business
labor productivity and the labor force in logarithms,
so that the slopes of these graphs are the growth
rates. Both variables show a distinct reduction in

Labor Force and Business Productivity

34

IIII IIIIIIII IIIIIII
1945

50

55

60

i t i TVT I

65

70

I I I i l I I I I I I I I I i l i r v i "I I I I I 98
75

80

85

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



90

95

Note: Average annual rates of growth over each period are shown in parentheses.
Trend breaks occur in 1973 and 1980 for productivity and the labor force, respectively.

Tabi eofCon ten ts
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on September 2, 1997.
2.

Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

3.

Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The. percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter f is:
4

100 x

- 1

Xf-1
For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.




National EconomicTrends
Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate
6

0.5 - .......... —....................

Percent change

0.4 —

0.3 —

0.2

0.1

—

0 .0 f

-1

1994

1995

1996

1997

1994

Industrial Production

1996

1997

Interest Rates

Percent change
1.8 - ...............................................................

1995

Percent

1.2

—

0.6

—

L l Li

0.0

'I III

d i iULIl

-0 .6 T

1994

1995

1996

1997

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

2 1 .........................."I........................... I........................... I..................

1994

1995

1996

1997

Unemployment Rate

Thousands

Percent of labor force

600 -

7.0 - ... ..............................

4.5 ~|1994




1995

1996

1997

...................I........................... I..................

1994

1995

1996

1997

3

National EconomicTrends
Beal Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago
10-

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago
18

Index
— 74

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
12

-

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
2 -

■2 i

72

I

73

r

74

ï

75


4


I

76

T

77

I

78

I....... I .... I " I
i........ I
I
I........I
I
I
I
I
l
I
I
r
i
I........l
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

National EconomicTrends
Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions
Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate
6

8 ~'l

I Advance

Y //////A Final

5

I
I Preliminary
■ ■ ■ ! Annual Revision

4
3
2
1
0
96:2

Industrial Production and NAPM Index
-

96:4

97:1

97:2

Nominal Gross Domestic Product
Index

Percent change
1.8

96:3

—

....................................

68

Percent change at annual rate
10 - ..............................................................................................- .........................

1995

1996

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
4 - ....

1997

Hours
35.0 —

33.5 -[ •
1995

Real Change in Business Inventories

1997

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Billions of 1992 dollars

1996

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 -

-2 0 T
1906



1

1996

1

1997

1

1.31 T

1M6

1996

5

National EconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
1 0 _ ----------------------------------------------

-4
95Q3

95Q4

96Q1

96Q2

96Q3

96Q4

Exports

Consumption
1

1 Imports

9701
—

1 _____ 1 Government
_

V ///A

1 Inventories

97Q2
Real GOP

Investment

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1996_ _ _ _

1997
1st

1995_ _
3rd

4th

Real GDP

3 .0 4

2.22

1.77

5.97

1.03

4.31

4.89

3 .6 2

Final Sales

3.26

1.94

2.56

5.22

0 .1 6

4 .49

3.02

2 .7 7

-0 .2 7

0.31

-0 .8 3

0 .7 8

0 .9 6

-0 .2 9

1.76

0 .8 0

Consumption

1 .7 7

1.22

2.13

2.53

0 .3 5

2 .2 2

3.56

0.67

Fixed investment

0.49

0 .8 3

1 .4 9

2.02

1.46

0 .4 5

0 .5 9

1.91

Nonresidential
Residential

0 .1 7

0 .5 1

1 .1 9

• 1.34

1.72

0.66

0 .4 7

1 .6 8

0.31

0 .3 1

0.31

0 .6 6

-0 .1 8

-0 .1 7

0 .1 3

0 .2 7

Change in Inventory

Government

1st

3rd

2nd

41|)

a

2nd

-0 .1 4

-1 .0 2

0.32

1 .2 9

-0 .2 0

0 .0 2

-0 .0 8

0 .54

-0 .0 9

-1 .2 3

0 .49

0 .5 8

-0 .2 9

-0 .3 5

-0 .3 8

0 .4 3

-0 .0 5

0.21

- 0 . 1 6-

0.71

0 .0 8

0 .3 7

0 .3 1

0.1 1

Net Exports

1 .1 9

1.00

-1 .4 4

-0 .6 9

-1 .5 1

1.93

-1 .1 8

Exports
Imports

1 .5 0

1.32

0.21

0 .2 3

2.89

1 .24

2.41

-0 .3 0

-0 .3 2

-1 .6 5

-1 .8 1

-1 .7 3

-0 .9 4

-2 .3 9

-2 .7 2

-0 .0 0

-0 .1 1

-0 .0 3

-0 .0 8

-0 .1 0

0 .2 0

0 .0 0

Federal
State and Local

Residual

6


0.1 1

1.13 •

-0 .3 6

National EconomicTrends
interest Rates
Percent

Treasury Yield Curve
Percent

7.5 - ....................................

4.5 4.0 - ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ H........................................
3m
1y
2y
5y
7y
10y
30y

Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago

75 - ..................r a m

“ 50 T......r....................r t
...“ ......r
......r
......P .. r
....................i...... i...... i...... i...... i...... i...... i.. "T .....i...... i...... i...... i



i...... i ..... i

NationalEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago


8


NationaìEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Perœnt change at annual rate

Dollars per barrel

4 -------------------------------------------

28 - ............ -.......

12 -|................T
................T
................I................ T
................I................)
1992

1993

1994

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ............................................................

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Percent change

1996

Consumption Chain Price index

Percent change
0.5 -.....................................

1995

Forcent change at annual rate
6 - .................................................

6 1 ....................................T
.................................... 1
......................
1995
1996
1
1997

Employment Cost index

Compensation perHour

Percent change from year ago
8 - ..................................................

Percent change at annual rate
6 - .................................................................................................

Benefits




5-

1997

National Economic!rends
Employment
Percent change from year ago

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force

Percent of population

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force

Weeks
16

3.75

14

3.00

12

2.25

10

1.50

8

0.75

6

0.00

4


10


National Economicifends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands

Thousands

60 - ...........

600 - ..........

1996

1995

1997

Change in Household Employment

-6 0 ! ................................. I.................................. I..................................I

1995

1996

1997

Labor Force and Population
Percent change from year ago

Thousands
1000 - ..................

2.5 - ..................................................

750 —
500250 —

■I" 1

| i .........................

11
1

-250 —
-500 —
-750 T

...................... r..................................r.....................

1995

1996

0.0

1997

I

1992

I

1993

I

1994

Unemployment Rate

I

1996

I

1997

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent

I

1995

Index

6.0

Percent

-

4.5
1995




1996

1997

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

11

U a tio na lE co n om icTren ds

Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago

72

73

74

75

76

Percent change from year ago

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average

Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent


12


Percent

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

National Economicïïends
Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate

Percent change
2 - .......................

„ 1 .

i i . j i . _ i i

h

ii^ iim

ii

I

-1 —

-2

1996

1995

'

2 l

1997

1992

f 1993

Real Consumption

1 1995

1 1996

1 1997

Real Consumption

Percent change
8 - ..............................

f 1994

Percent change
1.6 - ..........................................................
1.2

-

0 .8

-

0.4

I 1 I ~ I i I 11I
-0 .4 -

1995

I

I II I —I i I ** . I ------------. i . l
. l

I ...........■............................................ 1

- 0.8 -,................................ I................................ I.................................I
1995
1996
1997

1997

1996

I

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change
2.25 ................. -

Percent change
Millions of vehicles, annual rate
9 - ............... ...... .................................... ......- ........... ....................- 16.0
6 -

ft

l

Autos and light trucks
k
A

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

- 15.5

Real Durables Consumption

Index
110 — ■

i

Percent change

2 0 .....................

60-,
1992

[

1993




'

1994

'

1995

1 1996

'

1997

'

■10 “t.............................. T
.............................. T
..............................1
1995
1996
1997

13

HationaìEconomicTrends
Real Investment
Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago
60-


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP
8

20

-

6

18

—

4

16

-

2

14

—

0

12

— -2

10

r

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Percent change at annual rate
15 - ......................................................

-4

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30 — .................................................... -.........................

20 -[.................|..................|................. |................. j................. T
................. !
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Real Equipment Investment

Real Nonresidential Investment

Percent change at annual rate
25 -

Percent change at annual rate
20 - ............................ ....................................................................................

1995

1996

1997

Real Residential Investment

Housing Starts

F
’ercent change at annual rate
20 - ................................................

1.6




Millions, annual rate
-

...............................................

15

Nat iona IEconomic Trends
Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400

Percent of GDP

1200

1000

800

600

400

Federal Outlays, 1994

Federal Receipts, 1994

Defense
22.70%

Personal Income
39.67%

Net Interest
12.90%

Social Security
20.24%

Other
8.41%

Corp. Profit
11.40%

Medicare
10.50%
Other
28.32%

Medicaid
5.33%

State and Local Outlays, 1994
Education
37.66%

Social Insurance
40.53%

State and Local Receipts, 1994
Personal Income
13.82%

Corp. Profit
3.15%
Sales

Income

Property
.16%
Other
10.10%

Medical Care
17.32%
Other
19.13%
Transportation
6.80%


16


Social Insurance
7.73%
Safety
10.44%

Federal Grants
20.99%

National Economic frenc/s
Gross Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Percent of GDP
70 - .......* ......

Percent of GDP

2 0 1 ....... T “ ..i.........I........ f ... I ...... i........I........ ì ........r ...I........i........i
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Change in Gross Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

Billions of dollars, fiscal years
300 —
«s'

150-

0 -^

150 1 .......T '" ...I........ I........ r .... T""".... T
........ 1........ 1........ 1"
72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

I
92

1........ 1
94

96

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

Unified Budget

National Income Accounts
Calendar Years

Fiscal Years

State and Local
Receipts
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Federal

Surplus or
Expenditures Delicit(-)

Expenditures
Receipts

Surplus or
Deficit)-)

Receipts

Surplus or
Outlays
Deficit(-)

3 6 1 .4

2 9 1 .9

69.5

5 6 1 .5

6 2 2 .5

-6 1 .0

5 1 7 .1

5 9 0 .9

3 9 0 .8

3 2 2 .5

6 8.3

6 4 9 .3

7 0 7 .1

-5 7 .8

5 9 9 .3

6 7 8 .2

-7 9 .0

4 0 9 .0

3 5 7 .7

5 1 .3

6 4 6 .4

7 8 1 .0

-1 3 4 .6

6 1 7 .8

7 4 5 .8

-1 2 8 .0

4 4 3 .6

3 7 8 .8

64.8

6 7 1 .9

8 4 6 .3

-1 7 4 .4

6 0 0 .6

8 0 8 .4

-2 0 7 .8

4 9 2 .0

4 0 5 .1

86.9

7 4 6 .9

9 0 2 .9

-1 5 6 .0

6 6 6 .5

8 5 1 .8

-1 8 5 .4

-7 3 .8

5 2 8 .7

4 3 7 .8

9 0.9

81 1.3

9 7 4 .2

-1 6 2 .9

7 3 4 .1

9 4 6 .4

-2 1 2 .3

5 7 0 .6

4 7 5 .7

9 4.9

8 5 0 .1

1 0 27.6

-1 7 7 .5

7 6 9 .1

9 9 0 .3

-2 2 1 .2

5 9 4 .9

51 1.1

8 3 .8

9 3 7 .4

10 66.3

-1 2 8 .9

8 5 4 .1

10 0 3.9

-1 4 9 .8

6 3 1 .4

5 4 5 .5

8 5.9

9 9 7 .2

1 1 1 8 .5

-1 2 1 .3

9 0 9 .0

1 0 6 4 .1

-1 5 5 .2

6 8 1 .0

5 8 5 .9

95.1

1079.3

1 1 9 2 .7

- 1 13.4

9 9 0 .7

1 1 4 3.2

-1 5 2 .5

7 2 8 .9

6 4 8 .8

80.1

1 1 2 9 .8

1 2 84.5

-1 5 4 .7

1 0 3 1.3

1 2 5 2.5

-2 2 1 .2

7 8 4 .2

7 0 8 .4

7 5 .8

1 14 9 .0

1345.0

-1 9 6 .0

1 0 5 4.3

1 3 2 3.6

-2 6 9 .4

8 4 4 .3

7 5 8 .0

8 6 .3

1 1 9 8 .5

147 9.4

-2 8 0 .9

1 0 9 0.5

13 8 0.9

-2 9 0 .4

8 9 4 .4

8 0 7 .0

8 7 .4

1 2 7 5 .1

15 25.7

-2 5 0 .6

1 1 5 3 .5

1 4 0 8.7

-2 5 5 .1

9 4 9 .2

8 5 2 .3

9 6.9

1 3 74.8

156 1.4

-1 8 6 .6

1 2 5 7.7

1 4 6 0.8

-2 0 3 .1

9 9 9 .0

8 9 5 .9

103.1

1463.2

16 37.6

-1 7 4 .4

1 3 5 1.5

1 5 1 5.4

-1 6 3 .9

1587.6

1 6 9 8.1

-1 1 0 .5

1 4 5 2.8

1 5 6 0 .1

-1 0 7 .3

1043.4




9 3 8 .0

1 0 5 .4

17

National EconomicTrends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
YenAJSS

Index, March 1973-100

Goods Export Shares, 1996
Mexico
9.28%


18


Germany
3.84%

France
UK 2.36%
5.06%

Goods Import Shares, 1996

National Economic Trends
Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ...............................................

■ ,6
-2 0

................................7...|.................................... ].............. ~~~..
1995
1996
1997

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars
0

Percent change from year ago
25 - .....................................
20-

-1 0

Exports

-2 0
-3 0
-4 0
-5 0

,
1995

1996

1995

1997

1996

1997

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
Percent change at annual rate

Germany

United Kingdom
8 - ..................................................................................................

9 - ...........................................................

6 - ..................................................................................................
42 0 -

~2 1

1995

1996

1997

Fiance

Canada
8

8 - .........................................................

6

6 - .........................................................

4
2
0
-2




Mexico
20-

19

Nat ional Economic Trends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago

Percent
90

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

10

Nominal
5

0

Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5

-5.0


20


National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate
6 - ...........................................................

4 - ...................................................

- 4 - ...................................................................................................

_ 4 'i.................................... I.....................................I......................

1995

1996

..................................... 1
.......................
“ 6 1 .....................................1

1997

1995

1996

1997

Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent
- 75

Percent

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago
80n n
-




Nonfinancial

National EconomicTrends
Nominal GDP

Real GDP

Final Sales

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

1992
1993
1994

6 2 4 4.4

5.5

6 2 4 4 .4 4 2

2.7

6237.441

2.5

-2 .9 7 7

6558.1

5.0

6 3 8 9.5 6 3

2 .3

6 3 6 8 .8 6 4

2.1

7 .0 0 1

6 9 4 7.0

5.9

6610.741

3.5

655 1.2 4 7

2 .9

2 2 .10 2

1995
1996

7 2 6 5 .4

4.6

6 7 4 2.0 6 2

2.0

6 7 1 2.6 7 2

2.5

60 .55 2

7 6 3 6 .0

5.1

6 9 2 8.3 9 6

2.8

6 9 0 0.9 8 0

2.8

27.341

1994

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Change in
Business Inventories

Percent chanae
Annual
Billions
Year
rate
of $
ago

Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago

1996

1997

6 7 9 4.3

5.5

5.4

6 5 2 4.5 0 5

3.0

3.1

6 4 7 3.0 2 9

1.2

2.8

53.061

691 1.4

7.1

6.2

6 6 0 0.3 1 3

4 .7

3.8

6 5 26.671

3.4

2 .9

75 .89 6

1 6 .64 4

3
4
1995

1
2

6 9 8 6.5

4.4

6 .3

6 6 2 9.4 7 4

1.8

3.7

6 5 8 0.3 7 6

3 .3

3 .2

49 .66 2

15.28 3

7 0 9 5.7

6.4

5.8

6 6 8 8.6 0 9

3.6

3.3

6 6 2 4.8 4 8

2 .7

2 .7

_ 6 3 .5 9 0

2 4 .17 9
53.061

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2

7 1 6 8.9

4.2

5 .5

6703.721

0.9

2.7

6 6 5 4.2 8 9

1.8

2 .8

48 .47 9

7 2 0 9 .5

2.3

4.3

6708.841

0 .3

1.6

6685.2 8 9

1.9

2.4

2 1 .6 3 8

75 .89 6

73 0 1.3

5.2

4.5

6 7 5 9 .2 3 4

3 .0

2.0

6 7 3 9.3 0 6

3.3

2.4

17.02 3

49 .66 2

73 8 1.9

4.5

4.0

6 7 9 6.5 1 3

2 .2

1.6

6771.9 2 7

2.0

2.2

22 .22 3

6 3 .5 9 0

74 6 7.5

4.7

4.2

6 8 2 6.3 6 2

1.8

1.8

6 8 1 4.9 6 6

2.6

2.4

8.0 39

48 .47 9

76 0 7.7

7.7

5.5

692 6.0 2 3

6 .0

3.2

6 9 0 2.2 9 0

5.2

3.2

21 .28 8

2 1 .63 8

7 6 7 6.0

3.6

5.1

6 9 4 3.8 2 0

1.0

2.7

6 9 0 5 .0 3 4

0.2

2.5

37 .90 3

17.02 3

7 7 9 2.9

6.2

5.6

7 0 1 7 .3 7 9

4 .3

3.2

6 9 8 1.6 9 2

4.5

3.1

3 2 .92 2

22 .22 3

7 9 3 3.6

7.4

6.2

710 1.6 1 7

4.9

4.0

7 0 3 4 .0 8 7

3.0

3.2

6 3 .65 7

8.0 39

8 0 3 5 .2

5.2

5.6

7 1 6 5.0 6 0

3 .6

3.5

7 0 8 2 .6 7 7

2.8

2.6

7 7 .7 3 7

2 1 .28 8

Consumption

Durables Consumption

1994

1
2
3
4

1995

1996

1997

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

2.8

4 8 8 .5 3 0

5.8

7 8 3 .4 2 7

5 .7

5 5 7 .8 6 9

1.9

4 3 4 3.5 6 3

2 .9

4 4 8 5 .9 8 1

3.3

52 3 .8 4 1

7.2

8 4 2 .7 7 2

7 .6

6 0 0 .1 6 7

7.6

5 6 1 .1 8 9

7.1

9 1 5 .5 3 6

8 .6

64 8 .3 6 1

4 5 9 5.2 7 3

8.0

2.4

5 8 3 .5 9 8

4.0

9 6 2 .1 19

5.1

7 0 6 .5 1 3

4 7 1 4.0 6 1

9.0

2.6

61 1 . 1 0 7

4.7

1 0 4 1 .6 9 9

8 .3

7 7 1 .6 8 3

9.2

3.6

5 50.661

9.2

8 8 7 .7 9 5

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

4 2 1 9.7 9 6

4 4 3 9.4 3 6

3 .8

4 4 7 2 .2 2 4

3 .0

3 .5

5 5 5 .7 9 6

3 .8

7.0

9 1 3 .1 7 8

4 4 9 8.2 1 8

2.3

3.0

561 .7 4 1

4 .3

6.0

9 2 2 .7 1 2

4 5 3 4.1 2 9

3 .2

3.1

5 7 6 .5 6 3

1 1.0

6.3

9 3 8 .4 6 7

6 .4

9.0

62 6 .1 9 1

0.4

8.4

1 1 .9

9.9

6 4 1 .2 0 9

9 .9

7.8

4.2

9.3

6 5 3 .1 5 3

7.7

8.5

7 .0

6.6

6 7 2 .8 9 0

1 2 .6

7.6

3.2

4 5 5 1 .3 0 3

1 .5

2 .5

5 7 2 .2 3 0

-3 .0

3.9

9 5 5 .8 2 0

7.6

7.7

6 9 5 .6 7 4

1 4 .2

1 1.1

4 5 8 3.4 5 8

2.9

2 .5

5 7 7 .7 0 6

3.9

3.9

9 5 4 .0 3 4

-0 .7

4.5

7 0 5 .3 5 3

5.7

10.0

4 6 1 2.9 1 2

2.6

2 .5

5 9 0 .7 5 5

9 .3

5 .2

9 6 2 .3 1 5

3.5

4.3

7 0 8 .2 3 1

1.6

8.4

4 6 3 3 .4 6 3

1.8

2 .2

593 .7 0 1

2.0

3 .0

9 7 6 .3 1 5

5 .9

4.0

7 1 6 .8 0 0

4 .9

6.5

4 6 6 9 .3 7 3

3.1

2 .6

6 0 0 .6 6 2

4 .8

5 .0

1 0 0 1.5 3 3

1 0 .7

4.8

7 3 6 .9 3 9

1 1.7

5 .9

4 7 1 2 .2 0 4

3.7

2 .8

61 4 .7 7 1

9 .7

6.4

1035.6 8 3

14.4

8.6

7 5 9 .7 3 4

13.0

7 .7

4 7 1 8 .1 9 6

0.5

2.3

6 1 1 .8 6 4

-1 .9

3.6

1060.8 8 6

10.1

10.2

7 8 9 .2 9 0

16.5

1 1.4

8 0 0 .7 7 1

5.9

1 1.7

2.7

6 17.131

5 .3

3.2

1.0

2.5

4 7 5 6.4 2 7

3.3

4 8 1 8 .0 7 9
48 2 9.9 7 9




22

Nonresidential Investment

Private Fixed Investment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate

Billions
of 1992 $
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

32.301

3 .5

3 .9

1068.6 9 6

6 3 7 .7 6 6

14.1

6.2

1 0 7 9.0 0 6

3 .9

7.7

8 0 8 .9 3 2

4.1

9.8

6 2 9 .0 1 2

-5 .4

2.3

1 1 1 2 .6 0 7

13.1

7.4

8 3 8 .5 0 5

15.4

10.4

3.0

9.5

NationaìEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

ECI: Wages

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

ECI: Benefits

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
ago
rate

1992

1 0 0 .0 0 0

2.8

1 1 4 .3

3 .7

1 1 1 .9

2 .9

1 2 0 .5

5 .5

1993
1994

1 0 2 .6 4 3

2.6

1 1 8 .4

3.6

1 1 5 .2

2 .9

1 2 7 .0

5.4

1 0 5 .0 8 8

2.4

1 2 2 .3

3 .3

118 .5

2 .9

1 3 2 .0

4.0

1 0 7 .7 6 3

2.5

1 2 5 .6

2 .8

1 2 1 .9

2.9

1 3 5 .0

2.2

1 1 0 .22 4

2.3

1 2 9 .2

2.8

1 2 5 .9

3.3

1 3 7 .4

1.8

1995
1996
1994

1996

1997

1 0 4 .1 5 6

2.5

2.3

1 2 0 .8

3.0

3 .3

1 17.1

2.1

2.8

1 3 0 .3

4.4

4.3

1 0 4 .7 3 6

2 .2

2.3

1 2 1 .8

3 .4

3 .3

1 18.1

3 .5

3.1

1 3 1 .5

3.7

4.0

3
4
1995

1
2

1 0 5 .3 9 1

2.5

2.5

1 2 2 .8

3.3

3 .3

1 19.0

3.1

2 .9

1 3 2 .8

4.0

4.0

1 0 6 .0 7 1

2.6

2.5

1 2 3 .6

2.6

3.1

1 1 9 .8

2 .7

2.8

1 3 3 .5

2.1

3.6

1
2
3
4

1 0 6 .9 3 3

3.3

2.7

1 2 4 .4

2.6

3 .0

120 .6

2 .7

3.0

13 3 .9

1.2

2 .8

1 0 7 .4 8 5

2.1

2.6

1 2 5 .2

2 .6

2 .8

1 21 .5

3.0

2 .9

1 3 4 .6

2.1

2 .4

1 0 8 .0 3 1

2 .0

2 .5

1 2 6 .0

2.6

2 .6

1 2 2 .4

3.0

2 .9

1 3 5 .3

2.1

1.9

1 0 8 .6 0 3

2.1

2.4

12 6 .9

2 .9

2 .7

123 .2

2.6

2 .8

1 3 6 .0

2.1

1.9

1 0 9 .3 4 9

2.8

2 .3

12 7 .7

2 .5

2 .7

1 24 .4

4.0

3.2

1 3 6 .0

0.0

1.6

1
2
3
4
1
2

-

1 0 9 .8 5 7

1.9

2.2

1 2 8 .8

3.5

2 .9

125 .5

3.6

3.3

1 3 7 .0

3.0

1.8

1 10.58 8

2 .7

2 .4

1 2 9 .7

2.8

2 .9

1 2 6 .4

2 .9

3.3

1 3 7 .7

2.1

1.8

1 1 1.103

1.9

2.3

1 3 0 .6

2.8

2 .9

1 2 7 .4

3 .2

3.4

1 3 8 .7

2.9

2.0

1 1 1.775

2.4

2.2

1 3 1 .4

2 .5

2.9

1 2 8 .5

3 .5

3 .3

1 3 8 .7

0 .0

2.0

1 12.200

1.5

2.1

132 .5

3.4

2 .9

1 2 9 .7

3.8

3.3

1 3 9 .7

2 .9

2.0

Exports
Billions
of 1992 $
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994

1
2
3
4

1995

1
2
3
4

1996 1
- 2
3
4
1997

1
2

Imports

Percent change
Annual
Year
ago
rate

Billions
of 1992 $

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

6 .6

»

6 5 8 .1 8 3
7 1 2 .3 9 9

* 6 6 8 .9 5 9

7 .5

10 0 .0

3.2

1 0 0 .0

5 .2

2.9

7 2 8 .4 0 9

8 .9

100.1

0.1

1 0 2 .3

2 .3

8.2

6 3 9 .4 1 6

8 1 7 .0 2 6

1 2 .2

10 0 .5

0 .4

104.1

1 .8

10 0 .7

0.2

1 0 6 .7

2 .5

1 .3

1 10.1

3 .2

7 9 1 .2 1 3

11.1

8 9 0 .0 5 7

8 .9

8 5 7 .0 2 2

8.3

9 7 1 .4 6 9

9.1

10 2 .0

6 7 6 .0 2 9

-1 .8

4.4

7 7 3 .6 3 8

7.6

1 0 .2

1 0 0 .6

-0 .8

0.5

1 0 3 .8

3.1 '

2 .2

7 0 4 .1 3 1

1 7 .7

6.7

8 0 8 .0 2 2

1 9 .0

1 1 .8

1 0 0 .7

0.4

1.1

1 0 3 .9

0.4

1.8

7 2 2 .1 0 5

1 0 .6

1 1.7

8 3 3 .2 2 9

13.1

1 4 .2

1 0 0 .4

-1 .2

0.4

104 .2

1.2

1.7

7 4 7 .3 3 0

1 4 .7

10.0

8 5 3 .1 9 7

9.9

12.3

1 0 0 .8

1 .6

0.0

1 0 5 .0

3.1

1.9

7 6 0 .3 6 8

7.2

1 2 .5

8 7 3 .8 6 1

10.0

1 3 .0

1 0 0 .3

-2 .0

-0.3

105 .6

2.3

1.7

7 7 7 .4 4 7

9.3

10.4

8 9 0 .2 8 4

7.7

1 0 .2

1 0 0 .5

0 .8

■0.2

•1 0 6 .4

3.1

2 .4

8 0 2 .4 3 5

1 3 .5

11.1

8 9 5 .3 6 8

2.3

7 .5

100 .8

1 .2

0 .4

107.1

2.7

2 .8

1 0 .3

9 0 0 .7 2 0

2 .4

5 .6

1 01 .2

1 .6

0.4

1 0 7 .9

3.0

2 .8

8 2 4 .6 0 4

1 1.5

8 2 8 .1 7 8

1.7

8 .9

9 2 8 .9 6 3

13.1

6 .3

101 .7

2.0

1 .4 »

108 .7

3 .0

2 .9

8 4 7 .4 4 4

9 .6

9 .0

9 6 0 .0 4 3

14.1

7.8

102 .2

2 .0

1.7

109 .8

4.1

3 .2

8 5 1 .3 8 2

1.9

6.1

9 9 0 .2 4 0

1 3 .2

1 0 .6

1 02 .0

-0 .8

1.2

1 1 0 .6

2.9

3 .3

9 0 1 .0 7 1

25.5

9 .3

100 6.6 2 3

6 .8

1 1 .8

1 0 2 .4

1.6

1 .2

1 1 1.5

3.3

3 .3

9 2 2 .6 5 2

9.9

1 1.4

1048.941

1 7 .9

1 2 .9

1 02 .8

1.6

1.1

1 1 2 .8

4.7

3 .8

9 6 5 .0 1 3

1 9 .7

1 3 .9

109 7.7 4 2

1 9 .9

1 4 .3

1 0 2 .9

0 .4

0 .7

1 1 3 .6

2.9

3 .5




23

National EconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands Change

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Percent chanae
Annual Year
Thousands Change
ago
rate

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1995

1996

1997

118488

775

0 .7

108591

336

0.3

121.0

0.7

1 2 0 25 9

1771

1.5

1 10707

2116

1.9

124.5

2.9

123067

2808

2.3

114145

34 3 8

3.1

129.8

4.2

1 2 4 89 9

1833

1.5

11 7195

3051

2.7

133.4

2.8

1 2 6 70 5

1806

1.4

1 19517

2322

2.0

136.4

2.2

1
2
3
4

124924

519

1.7

2.4

116482

873

3.1

3.4

133.0

0.8

3.2

124711

-213

-0 .7

1.7

116937

455

1.6

2.9

132.9

-0.1

-0 .4

2.7

12 4 8 2 0

109

0.4

1.3

117414

478

1.6

2.4

133.6

0.6

2.3

2.5

12 5 1 4 2

322

1.0

0.6

117949

5 34

1.8

2.0

134.2

0.4

1.7

1.7

1
2
3
4

125693

551

1.8

0.6

118471

522

1.8

1.7

134.3

0.1

0.4

1.0

126381

688

2.2

1.3

119248

778

2.7

2.0

136.1

1.3

5.5

2.5

1 2 7 04 2

661

2.1

1.8

119898

649

2.2

2.1

137.0

0.7

2.7

2.5

127705

6 64

2.1

2.0

120452

555

1.9

2.1

138.1

0.8

3.1

2.9

1
2

128728

1023

3.2

2.4

121138

686

2.3

2.3

139.5

1.0

4.1

3.8

129462

734

2.3

2.4

121856

717

2.4

2.2

140.1

0.4

1.7

2.9

1995 Jul
Aug
Sep

4.3

124804

271

2.6

1.7

1 17142

78

0.8

2.5

133.6

0.5

5.5

2.6

12 4 72 9

-7 5

-0 .7

1.2

117465

323

3.4

2.4

133.4

-0.1

-1 .8

2.5

1 2 4 92 7

198

1.9

1.1

117636

171

1.8

2.3

133.9

0 .4

4.6

2.4

Oct
Nov
Dec

125235

308

3.0

1.0

117775

139

1.4

2.2

134.4

0 .4

4.6

1.8

125124

-1 11

-1.1

0.5

117951

176

1.8

2.0

1 34.3

-0.1

-0 .9

1.9

125068

-5 6

-0 .5

0.3

1 18120

169

1.7

1.9

133.9

-0 .3

-3 .5

1.4

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

125311

243

2.4

0.4

118058

-6 2

-0 .6

1.6

132.5

-1 .0

-11 .8

-0.8

1 2 5 70 6

395

3.8

0.6

1 18550

492

5.1

1.7

135.1

2.0

2 6 .3

1.9

1 2 6 06 2

356

3.5

0.8

1 18804

2 54

2.6

1.8

135.4

0.2

2.7

2.0

Apr
May
Jun

1 2 6 12 5

63

0.6

0.9

118966

162

1.6

1.8

135.1

-0 .2

-2 .6

1.0

1 2 6 42 8

3 03

2.9

1.5

119263

297

3.0

2.1

135.7

0.4

5.5

2.9

1 2 6 59 0

162

1.5

1.7

119516

253

2.6

2.1

137.6

1.4

18.2

3.5

Jul
Aug
Sep

1 2 6 88 9

2 99

2.9

1.7

119691

175

1.8

2.2

136.1

-1.1

-1 2 .3

1.9

126988

99

0.9

1.8

119983

292

3.0

2.1

137.1

0.7

9.2

2.8

127248

260

2.5

1.9

120019

36

0.4

2.0

137.9

0.6

7.2

3.0

Oct
Nov
Dec

127617

369

3.5

1.9

120248

229

2.3

2.1

137.2

-0 .5

-5 .9

2.1

127644

27

0.3

2.0

120450

202

2.0

2.1

137.9

0.5

6.3

2.7

127855

21 1

2.0

2.2

120659

209

2.1

2.1

139.1

0.9

11.0

3.9
4.3

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

128580

725

7.0

2.6

120909

250

2.5

2.4

138.2

-0 .6

-7 .5

128430

-1 5 0

-1 .4

2.2

121162

253

2.5

2.2

140.0

1.3

16.8

3.6

129175

745

7.2

2.5

121344

182

1 .8

2.1

140.2

0.1

1.7

3.5

Apr
May
Jun

129384

j 209

2.0

2.6

121671

327

3.3

2.3

139.6

-0 .4

-5 .0

3.3

12 9 63 9

255

2.4

2.5

12 1834

163

1 .6

2.2

140.0

0.3

3.5

3.2

129364

-2 7 5

-2 .5

2.2

12 2062

228

2.3

2.1

140.6

0.4

5.3

2.2

Jul

129708

344

3.2

2.2

122378

316

3.2

2.2

139.9

-0 .5

-5 .8

2 .8


24


National Economicïïends
Retail Sales
Unempl.
Rate

Billions
of dollars

Industrial Production

Percent chanoe
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly

rate

ago

Index

Percent chanoe
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly
rate
ago

Treasury
Yields
3 -m o

1 0 -y r

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

7.5

1 9 4 4.6 0 5

4.8

10 0 .0 0 0

3.2

3.43

7.01

6.9

2071.178

6.5

1 0 3.3 66

3.4

3.00

5 .8 6

1
2
3
4

5.5

5 7 3 .1 3 7

0.2

5.6

5 7 8 .6 8 0

1.0

5.7

5 8 5 .1 4 6

1.1

5.6

5 8 9 .5 7 3

1
2
3
4

5.6
5.4

1
2

5.3

6 3 5 .5 9 7

4.9

6 3 0 .0 4 3

1995 Jul
Aug
Sep

5.7

19 4 .3 1 5

-0.1

5.7

195.7 52

0.7

5.7

195.0 79

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5
5.6
5.6

1995

1996

1997

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

6.1

2224.913

7.4

1 0 8.5 58

5.0

4.25

7 .0 8

5.6

2326.536

4.6

112.109

3.3

5.49

6 .5 8

5.4

2439.5 81

4.9

1 15.198

2.8

5.01

6 .4 4

0.8

5.6

1 11.764

1.0

3.9

5.1

5 .7 4

7 .4 8

3.9

5.2

1 11.561

-0 .2

-0 .7

3.3

5.60

6 .6 2

4.5

4.5

1 12.441

0.8

3.2

3.0

5.37

6 .3 2

0.8

3.1

3.1

1 12.671

0.2

0.8

1.8

5 .2 6

5.89

6 0 0 .4 8 4

1.9

7.6

4.8

1 13.128

0.4

1.6

1.2

4.93

5.91

609.371

1.5

6.1

5.3

1 14.844

1.5

6.2

2.9

5 .0 2

6 .7 2

5.3

6 1 0 .7 6 6

0.2

0.9

4.4

1 15.774

0.8

3.3

3.0

5 .1 0

6 .7 8

5.3

6 1 8 .9 6 0

1.3

5.5

5.0

1 17.048

1.1

4.5

3.9

4.98

6 .3 4

2.7

1 1.2

5.8

1 18.326

1.1

4.4

4.6

5 .0 6

6 .5 6

-0 .9

-3 .4

3.4

1 19.417

0.9

3.7

4.0

5.05

6 .7 0

-1 .2

5.3

111.7 16

-0 .0

-0 .2

2.4

5 .4 2

6.28

9.2

4.5

1 12.603

0.8

10.0

3.1

5 .4 0

6.49

-0 .3

-4 .0

3.8

1 13.003

0.4

4.3

3.4

5 .2 8

6 .2 0

1 94.8 65

-0.1

-1 .3

2.3

1 12.522

-0 .4

-5 .0

2.3

5 .2 8

6 .0 4

196.7 02

0.9

1 1.9

3.1

1 12.704

0.2

2.0

1.9

5 .3 6

5 .9 3

1 98.0 06

0.7

8.3

3.8

1 12.788

0.1

0.9

1.1

5 .1 4

5.71

-0.1

5.7

1 9 7 .7 1 4

-1 .8

2.6

1 12.361

-0 .4

-4 .4

0.4

5 .0 0

5 .6 5

5.5

2 0 1 .0 8 5

1.7

22.5

6.1

1 13.782

1.3

1 6.3

1.9

4 .8 3

5.81

5.5

2 0 1 .6 8 5

0.3

3.6

5.6

1 13.241

-0 .5

-5 .6

1.4

4.96

6 .2 7

Apr
May
Jun

5.5

2 0 2 .4 9 6

0.4

4.9

6.0

1 14.284

0.9

1 1.6

2.6

4.95

6.51

5.5

2 0 4 .1 7 7

0.8

10.4

5.8

1 14.782

0.4

5.4

2.9

5.02

6 .7 4

5.3

2 0 2 .6 9 8

-0 .7

-8 .4

4.2

1 15.466

0.6

7.4

3.3

5.09

6.91

Jul
Aug
Sep

5.4

2 0 3 .0 1 7

0.2

1.9

4.5

1 15.495

0.0

0.3

3.4

5.15

6.87

5.2

2 0 3 .0 3 6

0.0

0.1

3.7

1 15.848

0.3

3.7

2.9

5 .0 5

6 .6 4

5.2

2 0 4 .7 1 3

0.8

10.4

4.9

1 15.978

0.1

1.4

2.6

5.09

6 .8 3

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.2

20 6 .2 7 7

0.8

9.6

5.9

1 16.231

0.2

2.6

3.3

4.99

6 .5 3

5.3

2 0 5 .7 8 9

-0 .2

-2 .8

4.6

1 17.216

0.8

10.7

4.0

5.03

6.2 0

5.3

2 0 6 .8 9 4

0.5

6.6

4.5

1 17.697

0.4

5.0

4.4

4.91

6.30

5.4

2 1 0 .2 3 3

1.6

21.2

6.3

1 17.765

0.1

0.7

4.8

5.03

6.5 8

5.3

2 1 3 .0 2 2

1.3

17.1

5.9

1 18.366

0.5

6.3

4.0

5.01

6.42

5.2

2 1 2 .3 4 2

-0 .3

-3 .8

5.3

1 18.846

0.4

5.0

4.9

5 .1 4

6.69

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

4.9

2 0 9 .9 3 4

-1.1

-12 .8

3.7

119.331

0.4

5.0

4.4

5.16

6.89

4.8

2 0 9 .3 7 0

-0 .3

-3 .2

2.5

1 19.304

-0 .0

-0 .3

3.9

5.05

6.71

5.0

2 1 0 .7 3 9

0.7

8.1

4.0

1 19.615

0.3

3.2

3.6

4.93

6.49

Jul

4.8

2 1 2 .0 7 5

0.6

7.9

4.5

1 19.81 1

0.2

2.0

3.7

5.05

6.22




25

National Economicïïends
rroaucer rnce m e
ax

vvJiiau nice i r m
iiici

Consumer Price Index
Index

less Food and Energy

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

Year
to date

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual Year
quarterly rate
ago

Finished Goods
Year
to date

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual Year
quarterly rate
ago

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1995

1996

1997

140.4

3.0

147.5

3.7

123.2

1.2

144.6

3.0

152.4

3.3

124.7

1.2

148.3

2.6

156.7

2.8

125.6

0.7

152.5

2.8

161.4

3.0

127.9

1.9

157.0

2.9

165.8

2.7

131.3

2.6

1
2
3
4

151.0

0.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

159.6

0.8

3.3

3.0

3.3

127.1

0.7

3.0

1.7

152.1

0.8

3.1

3.0

3.0

161.0

0.8

3.4

3.0

3.4

127.6

0.4

1.7

2.0

152.9

0.5

2.1

2.6

2.7

162.0

0.6

2.6

3.0

3.1

128.0

0.3

1.3

1.6

153.9

0.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

163.1

0.7

2.8

3.0

3.0

129.0

0.7

2.9

2.2

1
2
3
4

155.1

0.8

3.3

2.8

3.3

164.2

0.7

2.6

2.9

2.6

129.9

0.7

3.0

2.2

156.4

0.8

3.4

2.8

3.4

165.3

0.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

130.9

0.7

2.9

2.5

157.5

0.7

2.7

3.0

3.1

166.3

0.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

131.6

0.6

2.3

2.8

158.8

0.8

3.3

3.2

3.2

167.4

0.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

132.9

1.0

3.9

3.0

159.7

0.6

2.4

2.9

2.4

168.3

0.6

2.2

2.5

2.2

132.6

-0 .2

-0 .7

2.1

160.1

0.3

1.1

2.4

1.7

169.5

0.7

2.8

2.5

2.5

131.3

-1 .0

-4 .0

0.3

1
2

1995 Jul
Aug
Sep

152.6

0.1

0.8

2.8

2.6

161.6

0.2

2.3

3.0

3.3

127.9

0.2

1.9

1.8

153.0

0.3

3.2

2.6

2.7

162.0

0.2

3.0

2.9

3.2

127.9

0.0

0.0

1.3

153.2

0.1

1.6

2.5

2.6

162.4

0.2

3.0

3.0

3.2

128.3

0.3

3.8

1.8

Oct
Nov
Dec

153.7

0.3

4.0

2.7

2.7

162.9

0.3

3.8

3.1

3.3

128.5

0.2

1.9

2.4

153.8

0.1

0.8

2.6

2.5

163.1

0.1

1.5

3.0

3.1

128.8

0.2

2.8

2.1

154.1

0.2

2.4

2.5

2.5

163.4

0.2

2.2

3.0

3.0

129.6

0.6

7.7

2.2

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

154.7

0.4

4.8

2.7

4.8

163.8

0.2

3.0

2.9

3.0

129.7

0.1

0.9

2.2

155.1

0.3

3.1

2.7

4.0

164.2

0.2

3.0

2.9

3.0

129.7

0.0

0.0

2.0

155.6

0.3

3.9

2.8

4.0

164.6

0.2

3.0

2.8

3.0

130.4

0.5

6.7

2.4

Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

156.1

0.3

3.9

2.8

3.9

164.9

0.2

2.2

2.7

2.8

130.6

0.2

1.9

2.4

156.5

0.3

3.1

2.9

3.8

165.3

0.2

3.0

2.7

2.8

130.8

0.2

1.9

2.4

156.7

0.1

1.5

2.8

3.4

165.6

0.2

2.2

2.7

2.7

131.2

0.3

3.7

2.7

157.1

0.3

3.1

2.9

3.4

166.0

0.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

131.2

0.0

0.0

2.6

157.4

0.2

2.3

2.9

3.2

166.2

0.1

1.5

2.6

2.6

131.6

0.3

3.7

2.9

157.9

0.3

3.9

3.1

3.3

166.7

0.3

3.7

2.6

2.7

132.0

0.3

3.7

2.9

158.3

0.3

3.1

3.0

3.3

167.0

0.2

2.2

2.5

2.6

132.5

0.4

4.6

3.1

158.8

0.3

3.9

3.3

3.3

167.4

0.2

2.9

2.6

2.7

132.7

0.2

1.8

3.0

159.2

0.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

167.7

0.2

2.2

2.6

2.6

133.4

0.5

6.5

2.9

159.4

0.1

1.5

3.0

1.5

167.9

0.1

1.4

2.5

1.4

133.0

-0 .3

-3 .5

2.5

159.8

0.3

3.1

3.0

2.3

168.3

0.2

2.9

2.5

2.2

132.6

-0 .3

-3 .5

2.2

159.9

0.1

0.8

2.8

1.8

168.7

0.2

2.9

2.5

2.4

132.3

-0 .2

-2 .7

1.5

160.0

Apr
May
Jun

0.1

0.8

2.5

1.5

169.2

0.3

3.6

2.6

2.7

131.6

-0 .5

-6 .2

0.8

160.1

0.1

0.8

2.3

1.4

169.5

0.2

2.1

2.5

2.6

131.2

-0 .3

-3 .6

0.3

160.3

0.1

1.5

2.3

1.4

169.7

0.1

1.4

2.5

2.4

131.1

-0 .1

-0 .9

-0.1

Jul

160.6

0.2

2.3

2.2

1.5

170.0

0.2

2.1

2.4

2.4

131.0

-0 .1

-0.9

-0 .2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

UationalEconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com­
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.i)/GDPt./)4 - 1]. The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on
the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of
the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal) . Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-populatioa ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer
sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consumers’
answers to five questions about their current and expected financial
situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes
about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative
sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.




Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption of government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differendy. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the
NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on
October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods
(merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net
exports component o f GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla­
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con­
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

27

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