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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic
October 1989
T h e

business inventories-sales

rent sales f r o m
in J u n e .
cause

S o m e

a n

reasons,

occur,

First,

the

or

I-S

perhaps

w h y

analysts

future

m u s t

e c o n o m i c

ratio h a s

sales

are

displayed

s o m e t i m e s

deflated b y

rises h a v e
with

can

occurred

its l e v e l s a r o u n d

sion p e a k ;

about

e v e n

b e

the

e n d

of the

of m o n t h s

sharp

current

times

the p e a k

the e c o n o m y

in

i mbalance
expansion.

m o n t h l y

I n v e n t o r y - S a l e s

m o v e m e n t s

t w o

b e t w e e n
O t her

could

years,

u p

production

analysts

s u p p o r t their c u r ­
sharply

a n d

h a v e

f r o m

1.51

sales that c o u l d

argued

that,

should

relative to historical levels. T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l

m o v e m e n t s

during

the

conditions; price m o v e m e n t s

in real i n v e n t o r i e s

indices,
the

the

current

cycle peaks.

according

based

to t h e

largely

R a t i o s

M o n t h s

^ 3

using

u p w a r d

o f real e c o n o m i c

distort m o v e m e n t s

previous

w h e n

that b u s i n e s s e s

its h i g h e s t l e v e l i n o v e r

in the

I-S

ratio to

d r a w

conclusions

current

expansion

that w e r e

reversed

e x a m i n i n g the ratio o f c u r r e n t dollar b u s i n e s s in v e n t o r i e s to c u r r e n t dollar b u s i n e s s

previous business

P e a k

cautious

similarly

Second,

their r e s p e c t i v e pr i c e
10

it l a g s b e h i n d

conclusions

1.54,

conditions.

sales c a n p r o v i d e a m i s l e a d i n g v i e w
services

of the n u m b e r

to

it w i l l b e r e l a t i v e l y m i l d b e c a u s e t h e I - S r a t i o r e m a i n s l o w

s o o n thereafter (see p a g e 20).

a n d

this ratio c l i m b e d

i n t e r p r e t e d this rise a s a s i g n o f g r o w i n g

s l o w d o w n ,

h o w e v e r ,

current

( I - S ) r a t i o is a m e a s u r e

In July,

analysts h a v e

e c o n o m i c

a d o w n t u r n

about

inventories.

o n

^ 2

Finally,

U.S.

1 9 8 2

to

I-S

(-)

ratio r o s e

Third,

f r o m
ratio

1.52

sold.

in J u n e

is n o t

D e p a r t m e n t ’ B u r e a u
s

m o v e m e n t s

dollars)

or

this

of output

W h e n
to

unusually

1.54
l o w

inventories
in July;
w h e n

in the

A r o u n d

Following

ratio s h o u l d

B u s i n e s s

(+ ) P e a k

P e a k

z l

I-S

of E c o n o m i c

C y c l e

be

v i e w e d

Analysis.
with

a nd

similar

c o m p a r e d

t h e a d j u s t e d I - S r a t i o is n o t a l e a d i n g i n d i c a t o r o f a n

C o m m e r c e

m o n t h l y

(in

Prior

adjusted

expansion.

o f i n v e n t o r i e s relative to t h o s e o f g o o d s

relative to units

e x p a n ­
Thus,

skepticism.

P e a k s

M o n t h

+ 1

+ 3

±2

Aug.

1957

1.53

1.52

1.53

1.53

1.56

1.55

1.57

Apr.

1960

1.47

1.49

1.51

1.50

1.53

1.53

1.54

Dec.

1969

1.54

1.54

1.56

1.57

1.58

1.59

1.61

Nov.

1973

1.50

1.51

1.48

1.47

1.51

1.51

1.52

Jan.

1980

1.59

1.60

1.60

1.58

1.59

1.63

1.68

Jul.

1981

1.61

1.63

1.64

1.64

1.64

1.66

1.68

—

Cour t e n a y

T H E
F E D E
R
B
S

R
E
A
T

A
S
N
.

L
E R V E
K of
U H L S

V i e w s e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t official p o s i t i o n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m .




C.

Stone

T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l S u e s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

2-88

0.4

4-88

2.1

2.0

5-88

0.9

0.5

1.4

6-88

2.0

1.9

5.1

7-88

1.7

8-88

1.7

1.6
1.6
1.7

5-88

6-88

7-8 8

8-88

9-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

5-89

2-89

4-8 9

5 -8 9

6-89

7-89

2 .5

5-88

4-88

114,275

9-88

1.7

10-88
11-88
12-88

1.8
2.0
1.9

2.0
1.8

1-89

2 .5

2 .5

2-89

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0

2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0

5-89
4-89
5-89
6-89

114.129

-1 .5

1.7

2 .4
2 .5

2.2
2.2
2 .4

2.2
2 .7

2.6
2.6
2 .4
2 .5
2 .4

1.9

2.2
2.1

1-88 2-88

5-88

7-89
8-8 9

114,660

5 .7

-2 7
18
15
14
15
16
19
18
24
25
24
21
21
21
19
19
4-88

114,405
115,001

6.5
5.4

2.8
2.6

1.1

2 .5

115,054

0.5

1.5

1.8
1.8

1.8

1.5

1.9

1.9

2.1

115,205
115,570
115,575

2.6
2.1

5 .0

4.0

2.0

2.2

2 .5

0.6

5 .0

2.0
1.8
2.6

2 .9

5.2

5.5

4 .0

4 .0

7.5

2 .9

2 .4

2 .7

2 .9

5.1

5.4

5 .2

4 .4

1.5

2 .7
2 .4

2 .9

2 .5

2.6

2 .5

2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0

2.2
5-88

2 .5
2 .5

2 .4

115,947
116,009
116,711
116,855

2.8

2 .9

5.1

5.5

5.1

5 .9

2.2

2 .9

2 .4

2 .5

2.6

2 .7

2 .4

2 .9

1.4

1.5

0.8

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .5

1.9

2.1
2.1

2.1
2.1

2.2
2.1

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

117,156
-

0.2

117,115

2.2

2 .5

1.5

2 .4

2 .7

1.7

2.0

2.2
2.1

1.5

1.2
1.8
1.2

1.5

1.5

0 .9

1.1
2.2
1.2
1.2

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

2.4

2.6
2.2
2.1

1.9

0 .4
1.4

117,215
5.4

117,541

1.5

-

0.8

117,459

1.5

0 .5

1.4

5-89

6-89

7-89

117,597

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 1. 1989

PAYROLL EM P LO YM EN T
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

2-88

4 .2

4-88

5.6

5-88

5.5

2.8
2.6

6-88

5.7

5.5

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

5 .2

5-88

5-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

104,414
5.1

104.682
2 .5

104.901

2 .4

2.2

5.4

5 .8

5 .5

105,091
105.561

7-88

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.5

5.9

2 .4

8-88

5.5

5.0

2 .9

5 .0

5.5

2 .5

2.1

9-88

5.2

5.0

2 .9

5 .0

5.2

2 .5

2 .5

10-88
11-88
12-88

5.2

5.0

5.0

5 .0

5 .2

2.6

2 .7

5.0

5.1

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.5

2 .9

5.0

5.5

5 .5

4 .0

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.5

2 .9

5.0

5.5

5 .4

5 .6

1-89

5.5

5.2

5.2

5 .2

5.4

5.1

5.2

5.4

5 .5

5.7

5 .5

5 .9

2-89

5 .5

5 .2

5.2

5.2

5.5

5.1

5 .2

5.5

5.4

5.5

3.4

5 .5

5.0

5-89

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .2

2 .9

5 .0

5.1

5 .2

5.2

5 .0

5 .0

2 .5

4-89

5.2

5 .0

5.0

5.1

5.1

2 .9

5 .0

5.1

5.1

5.1

2 .9

2.8

2 .5

5-89

5.1

5.0

5 .0

5.0

5.1

2.8

2 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5.0

2.8

2 .7

105.768
105.954
2 .9

106.207
106.475
106,824

6-89

5.1

5 .0

5.0

5 .0

5.1

2 .9

2 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5 .0

2 .9

7-89

5.1

2 .9

2 .9

5 .0

5.0

2.8

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

8 -8 9

5 .0

2.8

2.8 2.8

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2.8

2.8

2 .7

2.8
2.6

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

107.097

5.1

107.442
107.711

2 .4

2.0
2.2
2.2

2 .4

2.8

2.6

2 .5

2 .7

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2.2

1-89

2-8 9

10-88 11-88 12-88

107.888
108.101

2 .4

108.510

2 .5

2 .7

2 .5

2.8
2.6
2.2

5-89

4-8 9

5 .5

108.607

2.2

2.1
1.6

1.2

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

108.791P
108.901P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
1» 1989

2

EMPLOYMENT
RATI O SCALE
M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

RATI O SCALE
SEASONALLY

M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

A D JU STED

135

130
125
120

115
1 10

105
100

95
90
85
80
SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEGINNING JANUARY 1906. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 Z.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT

SEASONALLY

RATE
PERCENT

A D JU STED

10




10.0

9.0

8.0

7. 0

6.0

5. 0

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4 .0

C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH

2-88

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88
2.1

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982-84*100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89
116.5
116.7

5-88

5.1

4 .2

4-88

5.8

4 .7

5 .5

5-88

4 .2

4 .9

5 .5

5 .2

6 88
—

4 .2

4 .7

4 .9

4 .7

5 .0

4 .9

4 .7

5 .2

4 .7

4 .5

4 .7

4.1

4 .8

4 .7

4 .8

4 .6

5 .2

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

5.1

7-88

4 .4

4 .8

8-88

4 .5

4 .7

9-88

4 .4

4 .8

4 .5

4 .8

10-88
11-88
12-88

4 .9

117.2
117.7

118.1

4 .2

118.6
119.0
119.5

120.0

5.1

4 .4

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4.1

4 .6

4 .5

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4 .1

5.6

120.5

5.0

4 .5

4 .7

1-89

4 .6

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .7

5 .6

2-89

4 .6

4 .8

4.8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

5 .4

5-89

4 .7

4 .9

5 .0

4 .9

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .6

121.4

7 .2

6.1
6.1
6.6

121.9

5.1
5 .6

6.1

122.5

6.4

7.1

8.1

6.7

6.6

7.1

7.6

7.0

5 .6

5 .9

5 .6

5 .8

5 .7

4 .5

2.0

5 .0

5 .5

5 .5

5 .2

5 .2

5 .0

4 .0

2 .4

2 .9

4 .5

4 .7

4 .8

4 .4

4 .5

4 .0

2 .9

1.6

1.5

0.0

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

4-89

4 .9

5.1

5 .2

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5.6

5-89

5.1

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5 .4

5 .5

5 .5

5 .6

5 .7

5 .8

6.1
6.2

6-89

4 .9

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

7-89

4 .8

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5 .0

8-89

4 .5

4 .6

4 .7

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

5-88

4-8 8

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1-88 2-88

120.7

4.1

10-88 11-88 12-88

125.5
124.0
124.2
124.5
124.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 19» 1989

P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH

2-88
5-88

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88
0.0
2 .5

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982 « 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2 -89

5-89

4-89

5-8 9

6-89

7-89
106.4
106.8

4 .6

4-88

2 .7

4 .0

5.4

5-88

2.8

5.8

5 .4

5 .4

107.1

6-88

2 .7

5.4

5.0

2.8

2 .5

7-88

5.4

4.1

4 .0

4 .2

4 .6

6 .9

8-88

5.4

4 .0

5.9

4 .0

4 .2

5.1

5 .4

9-88

5.8

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .8

5 .7

5 .1

6.8

5.5

4 .0

5.9

4 .0

4.1

4 .5

5 .7

5 .9

5.8

5 .9

5.9

4 .5

5.6

5.7

107.4
107.6
108.2

10-88
11-88
12-88

5.5

5.9

5.6

4 .0

5.9

5 .9

4 .0

4 .5

5.8

1-89

4 .4

4 .8

4 .9

5 .0

5 .2

5 .6

5 .4

6.5

6.5

6.2
6.1
6.6

108.5
109.1

1.1
2.2

5.5

5.9

5 .0

5.9

4 .5

5 .8

5 .6

7.1

9.1

6.7

6.7

8.2

9.8

6.6

6 .5

7 .6

8 .7

6.4

6.4

7 .5

6.9

7.0

7 .8

8.1
8.6

5 .9

6.1

6.0

6 .7

2-89

4 .9

5 .4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .9

5-89

5 .0

5 .4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .8

4-89

5 .0

5 .4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .8

5-89

5 .4

5 .7

5 .8

6.0

6.2

6.2
6.2
6.6

6-89

5 .0

5 .5

5 .4

5 .5

5 .7

5 .9

7-89

4 .4

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

5.1

4 .9

5 .0

4 .9

8-89

5 .9

4 .2

4.1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .4

4 .2

4 .2

4 .0

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1-88 2-88




109.2
109.5
109.9
1 11 . 1

15.9

12.6
10.2

112.1
112.6

11.4
8 .4

5 .5

9 .0

7.4

5*.5

5 .5

9 .4

8 .5

7.5

8 .5

11.1

7.1

7.6

6.4

5 .2

5.1

4 .9

-

5 .5

5 .5

5 .7

4 .4

5.0

2 .4

1.4

-5 .1

-5 .1

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

5.1

1.8

1.1

0.0

-5 .5

-4 .6

-4 .1

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5 -8 9

6-89

7-89

10-88 11-88 12-88

115.1
114.1

1.0

114.0
115.5
115.1

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 15» 1989

4




RATIO SCALE
1982-100

P R I C E S
SEA SO N A LLY A O JU STEO

RATIO SCALE
1982-100

CONSUM
ER PRICES DATA AR O A I«#2-84-100 BASE
E N
CPI-U OATA BEGINNING I»S3 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE M
EASURE FO HOM
R
EOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES O CH
F
ANGE FO PERIODS INDICATED.
R
LATEST OATA PLOTTED) AUGUST

PREPARED IY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK O ST. LOUIS
F

RATIO

SCALE

PRODUCER

PR IC ES

RATIO

SCALE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES O CHANGE FO PERIODS INDICATED.
F
R
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST
PREPARED I Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN I S H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH

2-88

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 8

5 -88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1**2 • 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

5-89

6-89

7-89

110.0
110.6
110.6
111.2
112.1

-4 . 5

1.1

5-88

6.7

4-88

0.7

5 .5

0.0

5-88

2.2

4 .4

5.5

6.7

6-88

5.7

5 .8

5 .5

8 .4

7-88

4 .6

6 .4

6.4

8.6

9.5

8 .9

8-88

5 .0

6.7

6.6

8 .4

8 .9

8 .5

10.2

112.9
115.6

7.7

5 .8

7.5

7.4

8 .9

9.5

9.2

9.4

5 .2

9-88

6 .5

6 .4

7.6

7.7

7.1

6.5

11.1
6.0

6.5

6.0

5 .4

5 .6

5 .0

4 .5

1.1
2.6
2.1

10-88
11-88
12-88

5.1

6.2

6.2

7.1

7.1

4 .8

5 .7

5 .6

6.5

6.2

114.6
114.7
115.1

4 .5

1-89

5 .7

6 .7

6 .7

7 .4

7.5

7.1

6.8

6.7

5 .6

7.2

1.0
8.6

2-89

6.2

7.1

7.1

7.9

8.0

7.7

7.6

7.5

6.8

8 .5

9.7

5-89

6.5

7.4

8 .5

8.0

6.8

6 .5

5 .5

7.2

6.9

8.0
6.2 6.0
6.7
6.6

6.1

8.8 10.0
6.0 6.4
6.8 7.5

5 .8

5 .4

5.1

4 .9

4 .2

4 .6

4-89

5 .5

6.5

5-89

5 .9

6.6

8.1
6.2 6.8
6.6 7.2

6-89

4 .9

5 .5

5 .5

5 .9

7.4

7.9

7.5

2.6

115.2
116.7

16.8
14.5

11.9

15.1

11.5

7.7

4 .9

8 .5

6.6

4 .7

5 .5

5.1

7-89

4 .7

5 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5.1

4 .8

4 .5

5 .9

4 .2

4 .2

4 .7

2.8

8-89

4 .7

5 .2

5.1

5 .4

5.4

5 .0

4 .7

4 .5

5.9

4 .2

4 .2

4 .6

5.0

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

1-88 2-88

9-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

117.8
118.8

10.7

6.8
2.0 11.8
1.0 - 2.0 0.5
1.0 - 1 . 5 0.7
1.5
1.5 - C .2
1.5

118.1

-

4 .8

2-89

5-89

4-89

119.2
-9 .6

118.2

-1 .7

1.0
2.6

4 .1

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

-4 .4

118.5
118.7

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 15» 1989

P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

2-88

2 .9

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982 « 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-8 9

5-89

6-89

7-89

5.5

5-88

5-88

105.5
105.5

2 .5

4-88

5.5

5.5

4 .6

5-88

5.2

5.1

5.5

2 .5

6-88

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

1.1

0.0

7-88

5.1

5.0

5.2

2 .7

2 .9

5 .8

8-88

5.1

5.1

5.2

2 .9

5.1

4 .6

5.4

9-88

5.5

5.5

5.4

5 .2

5.4

4 .6

4 .0

4 .6

5.1

5.0

5.1

2 .9

5.0

5.7

5.0

2.8

1.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

2 .9

5.0

5.7

5.1

5.0

2 .5

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.4

4 .0

5.6

5 .7

5.4

4 .6

10-88
11-88
12-88

105.9
106.1
106.1
106.6
106.9
107.5
107.4
107.7
5 .7

108.2

1-89

4.1

4 .2

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

5 .2

5.1

5 .5

5 .7

7.5

9.5

12.9

2-89

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

4 .8

5.1

5 .7

5 .7

6.1

6 .4

7.7

9 .2

11.0

5-89

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

5 .0

5 .6

5 .5

5 .8

8.8

6.8

7.1

8.0

6.4

7.6

8 .4

9.1

6.9

7.2

8.1

8 .9

9 .6

7.9
7 .5 10.2
8.8 8.6 10.8

6.4

6.6

7 .5

7.9

8 .5

7 .4

4 .8

4 .9

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

6.0

5-89

5 .2

5 .4

5 .6

5 .7

5 .9

6 .5

6-89

5.1

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .6

6.1

6.0
6.6
6.2

7-89

4 .5

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

5 .0

5 .0

5 .1

5 .2

5 .6

5 .9

5 .9

8-89

5.7

5.8

5.9

5 .8

5.9

4 .2

4.1

4.1

4 .1

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

5-88

4 -8 8

7-88

8-88

9-88




5-88 6-88

110.1

6.1
6.6

4-89

1-88 2-88

109.5
9.1

10-88 11-88 12-88

4 .4

110.5

7 .0

7.8

4 .8

4 .0

5.8

5.2

2.2

1.7

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

111.4
11.5

6.6
1.8

112.4

2.2
- 2.6

112.6
-7 .2

-0 .5

-5 .9

-6 .7

-

4-8 9

5 -89

6-89

7-89

111.9

6.2

111.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 15* 1989

6

NDUSTRI AL

PRODUCTION

RATI O SCALE

RATI O SCALE
SEASONALLY

1977-100

1977-100
150

ADJUSTED

145
140
135
130
125
120

115
110

105
100

95

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

90

1989

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-88

2-8 8

3-88

4-8 8

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

1977 * 100

9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-88

1.3
3.0

4 .5

5-88

3.8

5 .2

6.4

6.4

6-88

3.8

4 .8

5 .5

5 .0

3.6

7-88

5.4

6.5

7.5

7.9

8 .7

14.0

8-88

5.3

6.2

6.9

7.0

7.2

9.1

4 .4

9-88

4 .7

5 .4

5 .9

5 .8

5 .6

6.3

2.6

5 .6

6.1

6.0

5 .9

6.5

4.1

4 .0

5 .5

5 .8

5 .8

5 .7

6.1

4 .2

4.1

5 .8

5 .4

5 .7

5 .6

5 .5

5 .8

4 .2

4 .2

5 .3

4 .4

4 .4

1-89

4 .8

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .2

5 .5

4.1

4 .0

4 .8

4 .1

3.9

3.5

2-89

4 .2

4 .5

4 .7

4 .5

4 .3

4 .4

3.1

2 .9

3.3

2 .4

1.7

0.4

-2 .5

0.9

-0 .4

7-89

4 .4

4 .9

6-89

7.2

4 .9

5-89

0.9

5 .0

4-8 9

2 .7

4-88

3-89

0.0

3-88

2-8 9

10-88
11-88
12-88

134.4
134.7
6.4

135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
139.4
139.9

3-89

4 .0

4 .3

4 .5

4 .3

4.1

4.1

2 .9

2 .7

3.1

2 .3

1.7

4-89

4.3

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .5

4 .6

3.6

3.5

3.9

3.3

3.1

5-89

4 .0

4 .3

4 .4

4 .2

4 .0

4.1

3.1

3.0

3 .3

2 .7

2 .4

6-89

3.9

4 .2

4 .3

4.1

3 .9

4 .0

3.1

3.0

3.2

2 .7

2 .5

7-89

3.7

4 .0

4 .0

3 .9

3.7

3.7

2 .9

3.0

2 .5

2 .3

8 -8 9

3.7

3.9

4 .0

3.9

3 .7

3.7

2 .9

2.8
2.8

3 .0

2.6

2 .4

3-88

4-88

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

1-88 2-88

9-88

140.4

2.8
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1

10-88 11-88 12-88

140.8
140.5
1.7

140.7

2.6

5 .2

8 .9

1.7

3 .2

3 .9

141.7

1.9

3 .0

3.5

1.7

2.6

2.8

0.8
0.8
0.8

2.0

2 .7

2 .9

1.5

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4 -89

-

141.6

2.6

141.9

2 .3

0.8
2.1

3.4

5-89

6-89

7-89

1.7

142.OP
142.4P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 15, 1989

7

P E R S O N A L

R AT I O SCALE

I N C O M E

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

RATI O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY AOJUSTED

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

SOURCE» U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

P E R S O N A L IN C O M E
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89
3*944.2

2-88

7 .0

3-88

9.1

11.3

4-88

9 .0

10.0

8 .6

5-88

8 .0

8 .3

6 .8

5 .0

6-88

8 .0

8 .2

7 .2

6.5

8 .1

7-88

8 .2

8 .5

7 .8

7 .5

8 .7

9.4

8-88

7 .6

7 .8

7 .1

6 .7

7.2

6 .8

3*979.5
4*007.1
4*023.3
4*049.4
4*079.8
4*094.2

4 .3

4*118.6

9-88

7 .6

7 .7

7.1

6 .8

7 .3

7 .0

5 .8

7.4

10-88

8 .9

9.1

8 .8

8 .8

9 .6

10.0

10.2

13.3

19.6

11-88

7 .6

7 .7

7 .2

7 .0

7 .4

7.2

6.7

7 .5

7 .6

- 3 .3

12-88

7 .9

8 .0

7 .7

7 .5

7 .9

7 .9

7.6

8 .4

8 .8

3 .8

11.3

1-89

9 .0

9.1

8 .9

8 .9

9 .5

9 .7

9 .7

10.8

11.7

9 .2

16.0

2 0.8

2-89

9 .3

9 .5

9 .4

9 .4

9 .9

10.2

10.3

11.3

12.1

10.3

15.3

17.3

13.8

3-89

9 .5

9 .7

9 .6

9 .7

10.1

10.4

10.5

11.4

12.1

10.7

14.4

15.5

12.9

12.1

4-89

9 .4

9 .6

9 .4

9 .5

9 .9

10.1

10.2

10.9

11.4

10.1

13.0

13.5

11.1

9 .8

7 .5

5-89

8 .9

9.1

8 .9

8 .9

9 .3

9 .4

9 .4

10.0

10.3

9 .0

11.2

11.2

8 .9

7 .3

5 .0

2 .5

6-89

8 .8

8 .9

8 .7

8 .7

9 .0

9.1

9.1

9 .5

9 .8

8 .6

10.4

10.3

8 .3

7 .0

5 .3

4 .2

5 .9

7-89

8 .7

8 .8

8 .7

8 .7

9 .0

9 .0

9 .0

9 .4

9 .6

8 .6

10.2

10.0

8 .3

7 .2

6 .0

5 .5

7 .1

8 .2

8-89

8 .6

8 .6

8 .5

8 .5

8 .7

8 .8

8 .7

9.1

9 .2

8 .3

9 .6

9 .4

7 .9

6 .9

5 .9

5 .5

6 .5

6 .8

5 .4

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

4*180.4
4*168.9
4*206.3
4*273.1
4*319.5
4*360.7
4*387.1
4*396.3
4*417.5
4*446.7
4 *4 6 6 .2P

IN IT IA L MONTH
PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 22» 1989

8

R E T A I L

S A L E S

R AT I O SCALE

R AT I O SCALE

SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTEDt JU LY , AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE

R E T A IL S A LES
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
1—88

2-88

16.9

5-88

4-8 8

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

IN IT IA L MONTH
DOLLARS
9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

MILLIONS OF
1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

14.5

5-88

2-88

151*846
19.5

155.797

5 .7

-6 .5

155*077

6 .7

5 -88

8.6
8.6

0.9

8 .7

6-88

8 .9

7.5

5.8

9 .5

9.9

7-88

8 .4

7.2

4 .4

8 .5

8.0

6.2

8-88

7 .2

6.0

5.5

6.1

5 .5

5.0

9-88

6.5

5.1

2 .9

4 .9

4 .0

4-88

154.005
155.060
155.741

2.1

0.1
0.0

0.2

6.5

6 .5

9.7

20.1

11.7

17.9

15.7

-

155.752
155.751

10-88
11-88
12-88

7 .7

6.9

5 .2

7 .5

7.0

8 .5

7.8

6.5

8 .5

8 .4

7.4

6.7

5 .4

7 .0

6.7

8.1 8.6
6.2 6.2

7.8

10.5

6.0

1-89

7.4

6.8

5 .6

7 .0

6.8

6.4

6.4

7.8

9 .8

6.5

2-89

6.4

5 .8

4 .6

5 .8

5 .4

4 .9

4 .7

5 .5

6.6

5 .5

5-89

6.0

5 .4

4 .5

5 .5

5 .0

4 .4

4 .2

4 .8

5 .6

2 .9

4 -89

6.7

6.2

5 .2

6 .5

6.0

5 .7

5 .6

6.5

7 .5

5 .2

6.4

5 .6

6.7

5-89

6.9

6-89

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.0

5 .8

5 .5

5 .4

5 .9

5 .6

5 .5

6.0
6.1

6.1

5 .8

5 .8

6.5

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

6.0
6.0
6.2

5 .5

6.0
6.1

5 .5

6 .5

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 8

5-88

7-89

6.5

8-8 9

6.6

5 .2

157.842
159.529
159.189

-2 .9

2.2

140.040

7 .6

1.0

-5 .1

0.0

0 .9

-

2.2

0.8

5.5

4 .9

4 .0

8 .9

17.6
15.7

-0 .5

159*428
159*516
141*415

10.0

142*545

7.6

5 .9

4 .4

5 .9

5 .5

9 .2

6 .7

5.1

5.7

4 .8

4 .5

6.8 8.8

4 .7

6 .7

5 .5

4 .0

5 .1

4 .7

6.7

8 .5

5 .4

5.1

6.7

6 .9

5 .6

4 .6

5 .5

5 .5

7.1

8 .4

6.2

5 .0

7.8

8.8

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

5-8 9

6-89

7-89

10-88 11-88 12-88

-0 .4

142*500
145.271P
144.285E

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY
E- ESTIM ATED




PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 14» 1989

9

H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER

5-84
4-84

4.1

1-85

2-85

3-85

4 -8 5

1-8*

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1977-100

2-8 7

5-87

4-87

1-88

2 -8 8

3-88

4-8 8

1-89
169.9

5 .6

1-85

4-8 4

171.8

4 .5

2-85

4.1

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

4 .8

175.5

4 .0

5-85

175.9

5 .6

4 .8

5.1

5 .5

6.0

6 .5

4 .9

4-85

5 .2

5 .4

5 .8

5 .9

178.6

1-86
2-86

4 .9

5.1

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .0

4 .5

5-86

4 .8

5 .0

5 .1

5 .5

5 .2

4 .9

4 .6

4 .7

181.0

5 .5

185.0
185.1
187.4

4-86

4 .9

5 .0

5.1

5 .5

5 .2

4 .9

4 .7

4 .9

5.1

1-87

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .6

4 .5

4 .0

5.8

5.4

1.7

188.2

2-87

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4 .0

5.7

5.6

5.2

2 .5

2.8

5-87

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

4 .4

4 .2

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.1

5.9

4 .9

4-87

4 .6

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .2

5 .0

6.1

1-88
2-88

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .5

4 .2

4 .2

4.1

5.9

4 .4

5 .0

5 .0

2 .7

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .5

4 .4

4.4

4 .5

4 .2

4 .7

5 .2

5 .2

4 .2

5 .8

189.5
191.8
7 .5

195.2
196.5
199.5

202.2

5-88

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .6

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4 .4

4 .9

5 .5

5 .4

4 .8

5 .9

5 .9

4-88

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .7

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .9

5 .5

5 .4

4 .9

5 .7

5 .6

5 .2

1-89

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .7

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .9

5 .2

5 .5

4 .9

5 .4

5 .5

5 .0

4 .8

2-89

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

5 .0

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

5.1

5 .4

5 .5

5 .2

5 .7

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

6.7

5-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-8 5

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

1-86 2-86

1-88 2-88

204.8
207.2

210.6

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER » 1989

6

O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-8 5

1-86 2-86

4-84

1.9
2 .5

2 .7

2.6

2 .9

5.2

2 .5

2.6

2.6

2 .4

5 .5

5.8

4 .0

4 .5

2.8 2.8
2.1 2.1

2.8

2.6

5 .2

1.5

1.5

-1 .5

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

-0 .7

1.9

1-88 2-88

7.2

2.6
2.0

4-87

1.5

5.1

5-87

5.4

4-85

1977*100
2-87

5.0

3-85

1-87

2 .5

2-85

4-8 6

1.5

1-85

5-86

1-86
2-86
3-86

105.7
106.5
107.1
108.0
108.4
110.5

0.6

4-86

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

-

1-87

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.1

-0 .4

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.9

1-88
2-88

1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
1.8

2.0
2.1
2.2
1.8

5-88

1.9

1.9

1-89

1.8
1.8

2-89

1.7

1.8
1.8
1.8

5-84

4-8 4

2-87
5-87
4-87

4-88

1.9




1.8 1.7
2.0 1.9
2.1 2.0
2.1 2.1
1.8 1.7
1.8
1.9
1.8 1.7

1.6

2.0
1.6

1.7

1.7

1.9

110.1
-

1.8

-0 . 5

109.6
0.7

109.8

0.2

0 .5

0.4

0 .5

0.5

1.5

1.6

2 .9

0.8
1.1

1.2

1.9

2 .5

5.5

5.7

2 .5

5.2

5.5

2 .9

1.4

1.7

2 .5

5.1

5.1

2 .9

2 .9

1.8 2.0 1.8
2.0 2.2 2.1

1.2

0.4

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-8 5

1-84

-

1.2

2.1
2.2
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.6

1.5

2-86

1.4

1.2
1.4
1.5

109.9
110.7

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6
1.6

1.8
1.8

1.6
1.6

5-86

4-8 6

1-87

2-8 7

111.7
112.5

1.5

1.0
1.0
1.1

5-87

4-8 7

1.4
1.5

115.5
-

2.1
0 .5

112.7
5.2

115.6

0 .4

1.6

0.0

0 .5

1.4

0.5

l.l

0 .7

1.4

0.8

1-2

1.4

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

1-88 2-88

115.6
115.9
114.5

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER
» 1989

6

to

PRO D U C T

\V

IT Y ,

C O M P E N S A T IO N ,

AND

LA BO R

C O STS

RATIO SCALE

RATIO SCALE

1977-100

1981

SEASO N ALLY A D JU STED

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1977-100

1987

1988

1989

SOURCE« U.S. DCPARTNENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2N OUARTER
O
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

U N I T L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-84

4-8*

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

4-84

2.1
1.7

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.7

4-85

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.7

4.7

1-86

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.4

-1.9

2-86

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.7

1.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.2

5.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.7

3.5

5.3

5.2

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.0

4.3

3.9

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

1.9

0.8

1-89

1.4

2-87

4-88

4.1

1-87

5-88

6.4

4-86

2-88

5.5

3-86

1-88

0.7

3-85

4-87

2.3

2-85

3-87

2.0

1-85

1977«100
2-87

160.7

0.2

161.6
161.9
165.0
164.9
164.1
166.5
168.9
170.6
171.2
171.5

3-87

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.3

3.0

2.5

1.6

0.8

0.5

0.7

4-87

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.6

3.2

2.9

2.2

1.7

1.8

2.6

4.5

1-88

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.8

2.5

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.7

2.2

0.0

2-88

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.4

3.1

2.7

2.4

2.7

3.3

4.1

4.0

8.1

3-88

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.1

2.7

2.5

2.7

3.2

3.8

3.6

5.4

2.7

4-88

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.5

3.3

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.4

4.0

3.9

5.2

5.8

4.8

1-89

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.5

4.0

3.9

4.8

3.8

4.3

5.8

2-89

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.7

4.2

4.1

4.9

4.2

4.7

4.6

5.4

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89




171.6
175.5
175.5
176.9
178.1
180.2
181.9
184.5

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER
» 1969

6

11

G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C w n p o u M A ia a a l R a t « o f C h a n g e )

TERM INAL

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

4-84

6.5
6.0

6.7

6.5

6.8

6.5

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

5.6

5-85

4-85

7.9

2-85

5-85

4.7

1-85

2-85

ANNUAL RATES
5*851.8
5*925.6
5*979.0

7.0

4*047.0

4-85

6.5

6.6

6.2

6.6

6.2

1-84

6.4

6.8

6.5

6.8

6.7

7.5

2-84

5.7

5.9

5.4

5.4

4.9

4.5

1.5

4*107.9
4*181.5
4*194.7

8-86

5.7

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.1

4.7

5.5

5.7

4-86

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.5

4*9

4.6

5.7

5.0

4.2

4*255.5
4*297.5

1-87

5.8

6.0

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.0

6.2

6.5

8.8

2-87

6.1

6.2

6.0

6.1

5.9

5.9

5.6

6.7

7.0

8.5

8.2

5-87

6.2

6.4

6.2

6.5

6.2

6.2

6.1

7.0

7.4

8.4

8.5

4-87

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.4

7.7

8.6

8.5

4*588.8
4*475.9
8.4

4*566.6
9.0

4*665.8

1-88

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.2

7.5

8.2

8.0

7.7

6.5

2-88

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.8

6.7

7.4

7.6

8.2

8.1

8.0

7.5

8.6

5-88

6.7

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.4

7.6

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.5

8.1

7.5

4-88

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.9

7.5

1-89

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.0

6.9

7.5

7.6

8.0

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.9

7.6

7.7

7.9

2-89

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.0

6.9

7.4

7.6

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.1

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

8.0

2-87

4*759.8
4*858.5
4*926.9
7.5

5*017.5
5*115.1
5*201.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21» 1989

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nn ual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

4-84

5.5
5.0

5.7

5.5

5.8

5.5

5.2

5.6

5.2

5.5

5.8

4.2

4.0

4.5

4.7

5.0

5.2

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.5

5-88

4-88

1-89

6.6

2-86

2-88

5.0

1-86

1-88

4.1

4-85

4-87

2.4

5-85

5-87

4.9

2-85

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

1.7

1-85

2-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

-1.8

5*555.2
5*577.5
5*599.2
5*655.8
5*662.4
5*721.1
5*704.6

5-86

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.8

-0.5

0.8

4-86

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.9

0.4

1.6

2.5

1-87

2.9

5.1

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.6

1.7

2.8

5.8

5*712.4
5*755.6
5.4

5*785.0

2-87

5.0

5.2

5.0

5.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

5.2

4.0

4.9

4.4

5-87

5.2

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.2

2.7

5.6

4.5

5.0

4.8

4-87

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.5

4.1

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.9

6.6

1-88

5.5

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.1

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.5

5.5

4.0

2-88

5.5

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.0

4.5

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

5.9

5.7

5*825.5
5.5

5*872.8
5*955.6
5*974.8
4*010.7

5-88

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.0

4.4

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.4

5.6

5.4

5.2

4-88

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.0

5.4

5.2

2.9

2.7

1-89

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.1

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.0

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.7

2-89

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.7

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.0

5.8

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.1

2.5

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4—
88

1-89




4*042.7
4*069.4
4*106.8
4*152.5

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 21* 1989

12

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

QUARTERLY

OF

DOLLARS

TOTALS

AT

SEASONALLY

ANNUA L

RATES

ADJUSTED

RATIO

TR ILLIO N S

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0

2 . 8

2 . 6

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986
SO URCES

PERCEN TAG ES

ARE

LA TEST

PLO TTED t

DATA




ANNUAL

RA TES

2ND

OF

CHANGE

FO R

P E R IO D S

1987
U .S .

1988
D EPA RTM EN T

1989
OF

CO M M ERCE

IN D IC A T E D .

Q UARTER

PREPA RED

13

BY

FED ERA L

R ESER V E

BA N K

OF

ST .

L O U IS

G E N E R A L

P R I C E

I N D E X *

R AT I O SCALE

R ATI O SCALE

I 982-100

1981

î 982-100

1982

1983

1984

1 98 5

1 98 6

«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS

19 8 7

1988

19 8 9

SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

I M P L I C I T P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1982 « 100
2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

4-84

5.0

1-85

2.8

2.6

2-85

5.0

5.0

5.5

5-85

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

4-85

2.9

2.9

5.1

2.9

5.5

1-86

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.0

2-86

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

1.8

2.9

5-86

2.9

2.9

5.0

2.9

5.0

2.9

4.0

5.0

4-86

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

5.2

5.4

1.8

1-87

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

5.2

5.5

2.5

5.2

2-87

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

5.5

5.4

2.9

5.5

5.8

5-87

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

5.2

5.5

2.9

5.5

5.5

2.8

4-87

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

5.1

5.2

2.8

5.0

5.0

2.6

2.4

1-88

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

5.0

5.0

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.2

2.0

2-88

2.9

2.9

5.0

2.9

5.0

2.9

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.4

4.8

5-88

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.7

4.6

4.4

4-88

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

4.0

4.6

4.5

4.7

1-89

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

4.0

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.0

2-89

5.2

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

4.1

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

109.0




109.7
110.6
111.5
112.2
0.7

112.4
115.2
114.6
115.1
116.0
117.1
117.9
118.6
119.2
120.6
121.9
125.5
124.5
125.9

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 21» 1989

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

B IL L IO N S OF

TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

DOLLARS
5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89
2.495.4

4-84

7.2

1-85

8.7

10.2

2-85

8.2

8 .7

7.1

5-85

8.6

9.1

8 .5

9.9

4-85

8.1

8.5

7.7

7.9

6.0

1-86

7.6

7.7

7.0

7.0

5.6

2-86

7.1

7.0

6.4

6.2

5-86

7.4

7.4

7.0

6.9

4-86

7.5

7.5

6.8

6.8

1-87

7.2

7.2

2-87

7.5

7.5

7.2

7.2

5-87

7.6

7.7

7.4

7.5

4-87

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.1

6.8

6.9

7.1

7.6

1-88

7.4

7.4

7.2

7.2

6.9

7.1

7.5

7.8

2-88

7.4

7.4

5-88

7.4

7.4

4-88

7.4

7.5

7.5

7.5

1-89

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.5

2-89

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.5

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

2.554.9

6.8

7.2
7.2

2.599.5

6.8

7.2
7.5

2.661*4
2*700.4
2.754.5

5.1

2*761.0

4.5

4.0

6.2

6.2

6.8

6.2

6.2

6.6

7.9

6.5

6.6

7.5

6.4

6.6

6.9

7.0

7.4

8.5

7.8

8.6

7.2

7.5

7.7

8.5

8.1

8.8

9.9

9.2

7.2

7.5

7.8

6.4

7.5

7.7

8 .0

7.1

6.1

8.7

7.7

7.9

7.2

6.6

8.0

7.4

7.5

6.8

7.9

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.8

7.5

7.6

5.0

6.2

7.0

7.1

7.5

2*826.0

9.8

7.7

2*868.5

6.2

7.5

2*914.7
2*989.4

10.7

5*055.9
5*085.5

5.6

5*148.1
5*204.9
5*265.4

7.1

7.5

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.6

7.4

7.6

7.7

7.5

7.0

7.7

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.5

7.1

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.6

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

7.0

5*524.0

7.6

5*581.4
5*444.1

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21. 1989

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

4-84

5.6
4.8

5.0

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

6.8

2-85

5-85

BILLION S OF
DOLLARS

4.5

1-85

2-85

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

5.2

2*281.1
2*519.1
2*557.4

5-85

5.5

5.6

5.0

6.8

4-85

4.6

4.6

5.9

4.5

1.9

1-86

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.2

5.0

2-86

4.4

4.4

5.9

4.1

5.2

5.8

5.6

5-86

4.5

4.5

4.1

4.5

5.7

4.4

4.5

5.4

4-86

4.2

4.2

5.9

4.0

5.4

5.8

5.7

5.8

2*575.9
2*586.9
4.1

2*410.9
2*452.4
2*464.4
2.2

2*477.8

1-87

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.4

2.9

5.1

2.8

2.5

1.1

0.1

2-87

5.9

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.1

5.5

5.2

5.1

2.5

2.4

2*478.5
4.8

2*507.7

5-87

4.0

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

2.9

5.2

4.8

4.7

4-87

5.6

5.5

5.2

5.5

2.9

5.0

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.2

2.9

2.0

-0.7

1-88

5.8

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.2

2.9

5.0

5.7

5.4

2.7

6.2

2-88

5.7

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.2

5.1

2.8

2.9

5.5

5.2

2.7

4.4

2.5

5-88

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.1

2.9

5.0

5.5

5.2

2.8

4.0

2.9

5.5

4-88

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.2

5.1

2.9

5.0

5.4

5.2

2.9

5.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

1-89

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.1

5.0

2.8

2.9

5.2

5.0

2.7

5.4

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.0

2-89

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.0

2.9

2.7

2.8

5.1

2.9

2.6

5.2

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.0

1.9

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89




2*556.5
2*552.5
2*570.8
2*586.8
2*608.1
2*627.7
2*641.0
2*655.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 21» 1989

15

G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1-89

4-84

-5.0

1-85

-9.0 -12.9

2-85

-5.6

-2.9

5-85

-6.5

-7.0

-5.9 -14.8

4-85

-1.9

-1.2

0.6

18.7

1-86

1.5

2.7

6.5

19.1

2-86

-1.1

-0.5

0.8

6.5

1.0 -14.7

5-86

-1.7

-1.2

-0.6

5.4

-1.5 -10.5

-5.7

4-86

-1.4

-1.0

-0.4

2.8

-0.8

-6.8

-2.5

0.7

1-87

0.2

0.8

1.8

4.9

2.5

-1.6

5.2

8 .0

15.8

2-87

0.7

1.5

2.4

5.1

5.0

0.0

4.1

7.6

11.2

6.7

5-87

1.1

1.7

2.7

5.1

5.5

0.9

4.5

7.0

9.1

5.9

5.2

4-87

5.5

4.2

5.7

8.5

7.1

5.4

9.2

12.4

15.6

15.5

20.1

1-88

2.4

5.0

4.1

6.2

4.9

5.2

6.1

8 .2

9.7

8.5

8.8

10.7 -10.7

2-88

5.0

5.6

4.7

6.7

5.5

4.1

6.7

8 .6

10.0

8 .9

9.4

10.8

-0.5

11.2

5-88

5.6

4.2

5.5

7.2

6.2

4.9

7.4

9.1

10.4

9.5

10.1

11.5

5.8

11.9

4-88

2.8

5.5

4 .2

5.8

4.8

5.6

5.6

6.9

7.7

6.6

6.6

6.9

0.4

4.4

1.2

-9.2

1-89

5.1

5.6

4.5

6.0

5.1

4.0

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.9

7.0

7.5

2.1

5.6

5.8

-0.4

9.2

2-89

5.1

5.6

4.4

5.8

5.0

5.9

5.6

6.7

7.4

6.5

6.4

6.6

2.2

5.0

5.6

0.7

6.0

2.8

5-84

4-84

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

661.8
689.5
652.5

1-85

626.7
654.1
19.4

685.8
657.2
647.7
648.8
675.1
684.1
692.8
57.1

749.7
728.8
748.4
12.7

771.1
752.8
769.6
775.0

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21» 1989

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

5-84

4-84

4-84

-5.5

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

-8.8 -12.4

2-85

2-85

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

-5.0

1-85

1-85

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

655.7

-2.5

654.5
8.6

647.5

5-85

-6.9

-7.6

4-85

-2.0

-1.2

2.9

0.2

20.8

1-86

1.2

2.5

6.6

5.9

19.6

2-86

-1.9

-1.4

1.0

-0.8

5.5

-1.8 -18.5
-4.7 -14.5 -10.5

-5.0 -17.0

618.1

5-86

-5.0

-2.7

-1.0

-2.8

1.1

4-86

-5.5

-5.1

-1.7

-5.4

-0.4

1-87

-1.1

-0.6

0.9

-0.1

5.0

2-87

-0.4

0.1

1.6

0.7

5-87

0.4

0.9

2.5

1.6

4-87

2.6

5.2

4.8

4.4

1-88

1.8

2.5

5.7

2-88

1.9

2.4

5-88

2.5

5.0

648.0
676.1

18.5

-5.1 -11.8

642.5
625.1

-8.5

-6.2

615.2

-0.2

-4.4

0.8

6.9

21.8

646.5

5.5

0.9

-2.5

2.2

6.8

15.9

6.6

4.2

2.1

-0.4

5.6

7.5

12.4

8.0

9.5

7.1

5.5

5.8

8 .0

12.1

17.2

15.7

20.6

52.8

5.2

5.5

5.9

2.5

5.6

8 .6

11.8

9.4

10.5

10.8

-7.6

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.9

2.4

5.4

7.9

10.4

8.2

8 .6

8 .4

-2.1

5.7

4.2

5.9

5.9

4.6

5.5

6.1

8 .5

10*6

8.8

9.5

9.2

2.5

7.7

11.8
-1.2 -12.7

656.7
671.7
721.1
707.0
715.5
755.6

4-88

1.6

2.0

5.0

2 .6

4.5

5.0

1.7

4.0

5.8

7.4

5.4

5.5

4.4

-1.7

0.4

1-89

1.8

2.5

5.5

2.9

4.5

5.5

2.2

4.5

5.9

7.5

5.6

5.5

4.8

0.0

2.0

1.4

-5.4

6.9

2-89

1.7

2.1

5.0

2.7

4.1

5.0

1.9

5.9

5.5

6.5

4.9

4.7

4.0

-0.1

1.4

0.9

-2.5

5.0

-0.7

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89




709.1
721.1
719.8

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 21» 1989

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-84

10*4

2-85

10*0

10*0

12*5

15*4

14.7

11*6

12*1

12.5

14.2

9*1

8*9

8.4

8.2

2.4

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

8.1

1-86

5-86

20.6

4-85

2-8«

9.1

5-85

1-8$

9*9

1-85

4-85

B IL L IO N S OP
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1-8?

764.5
10*8

784.4
801.7
840.2
856.7
850.5

-5.0

2-86

9*1

8*9

8.6

8.4

4.6

5.0

9.2

5-86

8*6

8*4

8.0

7.8

4.8

5.7

7.2

869.5
880.5

5.2

888.9

4-86

8*1

7.8

7.4

7.1

4.6

5.8

6.1

4.6

4 0

1-87

8*1

7.9

7.5

7.5

5.2

4.7

6.7

5.8

6 1

8.5

2-87

7*8

7.5

7.2

6.9

5.1

4.6

6.2

5.5

5 6

6.4

4.4

906.9
916.8
955.2

5-87

7*7

7.5

7.2

7.0

5.4

5.0

6.4

5.8

6 0

6.7

5.9

7.5

4-87

7*6

7.4

7.1

6.9

5.5

5.2

6.4

5.9

6 1

6.6

6.0

6.8

6*5

1-88

7*0

6.8

6.4

6.2

4.8

4.5

5.5

4.9

4 9

5.1

4.5

4.2

2*7

-0.8

947.5
945.7
960.1

2-88

6*9

6.7

6.4

6.2

5.0

4.7

5.5

5.1

5 1

5.5

4.7

4.7

5*9

2.7

6.2

5-88

6*4

6.2

5.9

5.7

4.5

4.2

4.9

4.4

4 4

4.4

5.8

5.6

2*7

1.6

2.7

-0.6

958.6
1»011.4

4-88

7*4

7.2

7.0

6.9

5.9

5.7

6.5

6.2

6 4

6.7

6.4

6*8

6*6

6.7

9.4

11.0

25.9

1-89

7*1

6.9

6.7

6.5

5.6

5.4

6.1

5.8

5 9

6.1

5.8

6*0

5*8

5.7

7.4

7.8

12.5

1.8

2-89

7*1

6.9

6.7

6.5

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6 0

6.2

6.0

6.2

6*0

5.9

7.5

7.6

10.5

4.4

6.9

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

1 »016.0
1,>055.2

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21, 1989

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-84

6.2

2-85

6.5

6.9

9.5

11.0

15.0

7.9

8.6

9.0

10.5

5.7

5.8

5.5

5.1

-1.5

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.2

2.0

2.5

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.4

2.1

2.2

5.8

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.4

2.8

5.1

5.8

5.9

5-88

4-88

5.8

1-89

2.1

4-86

2-88

9.5

5-86

1-88

-4.5

2-86

4-87

1.6

1-86

5-87

19.8

4-85

2-87

6.5

5-85

1-87

5.2

1-85

4-86

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
695.2

7.5

705.5
716.7
749.8
752.7
744.1
761.2
765.2
776.0

1-87

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.7

2.4

2.5

4.4

2.7

5.0

0.5

2-87

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.0

1.9

2.0

5.5

1.8

1.7

-0.5

-0.9

5-87

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.0

2.2

2.5

5.5

2 .*

2.4

1.5

1.8

4.5

4-87

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.1

2.5

2.6

5.6

2.7

2.8

2.1

2.7

4.5

4.5

1-88

5.6

5.5

5.2

2.9

1.5

1.5

2.1

1.0

0.9

-0.1

-0.2

0.0

-2.1

5.5

5.0

1.6

1.6

2.5

1.4

1.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

-0.1

-2.5

4.1

-2.7

0.2

-5.6

776.6
774.9
785.5
792.1
-8.5

775.1

2-88

5.7

5.5

5-88

5.2

5.1

2.8

2.5

1.1

1.1

1.7

0.9

0.7

0.0

-0.1

0.1

-1 .0

5.6

5*4

2.5

2.5

5.0

2.5

2.4

1.9

2.2

2.7

2.5

1.8

5.4

6.1

16.7

1.8

1.4

0.8

5.2

2.9

6.2

-5.5

785.0
775.9

4-88

5.9

5.9

1-89

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.0

1.9

1.9

2.4

1.8

1.8

1.5

1*5

2-89

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.1

2.1

2.1

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.9

2.5

1.9

1.5

5.6

5.5

6.0

1.0

5.4

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89




806.4
799.7
810.5

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BANK OF ST* LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 2 1 , 1989

17

D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u a d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

IN IT IA L QUARTER

t e r m in a l

QUARTER

3-84

4-84

4-84

5.5
8.0

9.1

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

5.4

2-85

2-85

5.7

1-85

1-85

B IL L IO N S OP
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

2*728.6
2*764.6
13.1

2*850.7

3-85

5.5

5.5

-1.5

4-85

6.1

6.3

3.5

8.6

1-8«

6.5

6.7

7.0

5.1

8.6

2-86

6.5

6.7

6.9

5.5

7.9

7.5

6.5

3-86

6.0

6.1

6.2

4.8

6.5

5.8

4.4

2.4

4—
86

5.9

6.0

6.0

4.9

6.2

5.7

4.7

3.8

5.3

6.6

5.7

7.0

6.7

6.2

6.1

8.0

10.8

4.9

5.9

5.4

4.8

4.4

5.0

4.9

-0.6

2*840.0
2*899.5
8.5

2*959.2
3*006.5
3*024.3
3*063.4

1-87

6.4

6.5

2-87

5.7

5.8

3*142.8

3-87

6.2

6.2

6.3

5.6

6.5

6.2

5.9

5.7

6.6

7.0

5.2

11.3

4-87

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.3

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.8

7.7

8.4

7.6

11.9

12.4

10.3

9.7

7.0

3*138.1
3*223.5
3*319.4

1-88

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.3

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.9

7.6

8.1

7.4

2-88

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.4

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.6

8.0

7.4

9.5

8.9

7.1

7.2

3-88

6.9

7.0

7.1

6.6

7.3

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.8

8.1

7.7

9.4

8.9

7.8

8.2

9.1

4-88

7.0

7.1

6.8

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.9

8.2

7.9

9.3

8.9

8.1

8.4

9.0

8.9

1-89

7.3

7.4

7.1

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.7

8.3

8.6

8.3

9.7

9.4

8.8

9.3

10.0

10.4

11.9

2-89

7.2

7.3

7.1

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.6

8.1

8.4

8.1

9.3

9.0

8.4

8.7

9.1

9.1

9.1

6.5

3-84

4-84

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

1-85

3*376.4
3*435.9
3*511.7
3*587.4
3*689.5
3*747.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21t Ì 98*

D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

BILLION S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2*496.3

4-84

2.8

1-85

2.5

2.1

2-85

4.6

5.5

8.9

3-85

2.3

2.1

2.1

-4.3

4-85

2.7

2.7

2.8

-0.1

4.4

1-86

3.5

3.6

4.0

2.4

5.9

7.4

2-86

3.8

4.0

4.4

3.3

6.0

6.8

6.2

2*509.4
2*563.5
2*535.4
2*562.8
2*609.2
2*648.6

3-86

3.1

3.2

3.4

2.3

4.0

3.9

2.2

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.1

3.5

3.3

1.9

-0.2

2*637.3

-1.7

4-86

2*646.2

1.4

2*672.3

1-87

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.4

3.6

3.4

2.4

1.2

2.7

4.0

2-87

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.3

2.2

1.8

0.7

-0.6

-0.2

-1.0

-5.8

3-87

2.6

2.6

2.6

1.9

2.7

2.5

1.7

0.8

1.5

1.5

0.2

6.7

4-87

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.5

3.3

3.1

2.5

1.9

2.7

3.0

2.7

7.2

7.8

1-88

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.7

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.3

3.0

3.3

3.2

6.4

6.2

4.6

2-88

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.3

2.9

3.2

3.0

5.3

4.9

3.5

2*632.5
2*675.6
2*726.2
2*757.2
2*773.3

2.4

2*806.4

3-88

3.1

3.2

3.2

2.8

3.4

3.4

3.0

2.6

3.2

3.4

3.3

5.3

4.9

3.9

3.6

4.9

4-88

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.8

3.3

3.5

3.5

5.1

4.8

4.0

3.8

4.6

4.3

1-89

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.2

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.1

3.6

3.9

3.8

5.3

5.1

4.5

4.5

5.2

5.4

6.6

2-89

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.2

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.5

4.7

4.5

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.9

3.7

0.8

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89




2*835.9
2*881.7
2*887.6

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
SEPTEM BER 21* 1989

18

C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n a a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERM INAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-8«

2-86

5-8«

4-8«

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

-«.1

4-84

159.2

1-85
2-85

122.8

- 2 4 . « -5 9 .4
-1 5 .9 -2 0 .4

124.2

4 .«

5-85

-

8. «

-9 .5

10.7

17.1

4-85

-5 .5

-2 .9

15.7

18.5

-1 5 .9 -1 5 .4

8.1

1- 8«
2- 8«
5 -8 «

155.2

19.9

- 7 . « -1 0 .5 -1 8 .1 -5 2 .4
-5 .8

-9 .9

-« .7

-«.8

1-87

-2 .9

-2 . 5

2-8 7

0.8

- 5 .4 -1 0 .5 - 1 8 . «
-5 .1 -1 0 .5

-1 .7

5.4

1.1

5.5

-2 .5

111.2

-5 .9
18.0

115.9

9.7

18.4

18.8

121.0

16.4

24.9

28.5

5 .4

0.1

5 .9

4.4

2.1

18.4

25.4

7.8

8.2

7.1

5 .4

19.9

25.9

2 .5

1. «
1. «

5 .8

2 .5

-0 .5

5-87

-

112.9

-1 1 .9 - 2 5 . « -5 1 .4

12.8 -1 5 .9
-9 .5

-

4 -8 «

4-87

-

129.2

7.5

7.5

« .5

4 .9

17.1

21.5

151.4

59.1
52.7

27.4

28.1

25.1

».0
22.2

2« . 7

51.2

27.9

18.1

14.1

21.7

t—
88
2-88

5 .«

4 .4

9.2

9 .«

8 .9

7.7

19.0

25.1

25 .9

25.0

4 .5

5 .5

9.9

10.4

9.8

8.8

19.0

22.5

25.2

25.9

5-88

5 .2

10.5

9.4

18.7

4-88

5 .2

«.0 10.5 10.8
«.0 10.0 10.4

1-89

4 .7

5 .5

2-89

2.8

5.5

« .«

« .7

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

9.0

9.9

9.1

5-85

4-85

148.5

1. «

148.9

20.1

159.9

16.3

55.0

21.1
20.2

19.7

17.1

2 5 .«

18.7

19.0

1«*8

22.5

17.5

21.8 22.2
20.1 20 .5

20.5

18.0

1« . «

14.5

17.9

1 7 .«

17.5

17.4

14.9

15.4

11.1

15.1

15.2

12.7

12.1

9.5

7.5

4 .8

5 .4

1- 8« 2- 8«

5 -8 «

4 -8 «

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

17.4

8.8 8.0 15.4
«.1 5.1 11. «

9 .5

159.4

22.7

166.9
16.0
10.7

8. «
0.6

5 .7

5 .4

15.5

175.2
175.6

0 .5

-5 .5

1-88 2-88

-4 .5

175.6

- 9 . 2 -1 5 .8 -2 5 .8

161.1

5-88

4-88

1-89

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21» 1989

H IS T O R IC A L

N A T IO N A L

E s tim a te s
o f

N IP A

C u rre n t
Ju ly

t a b le s

1986,

J u ly

N a t io n a l

1 9 29-82:

F o r
an d

W e a lt h

D e p a rtm e n t




th e

D a ta

1987

an d

E s tim a te s
In c o m e

an d

S t a t is t ic a l

fu r th e r

o f

fo r

in
a re

1983,

Ju ly
fo r

PRO D UCT

th e

OF

ACCOUNTS

r e g u la r

p u b lis h e d
1984

1988
N IP A

P ro d u c t

an d

S u rv e y
s e r ie s

A c c o u n ts

DATA

q u a r t e r ly

in

th e

1985

p r e s e n ta tio n

J u ly

a re

1989

S u rv e y

p u b lis h e d

o f

C u rre n t
1929-82

a re

o f

th e

B u s in e s s ,

fo r

in

o f

th e

p u b lis h e d

U n it e d

to

N a t io n a l

in

S t a t e s .

T a b le s .

in fo r m a tio n

D iv is io n

AND

s e r ie s

1 9 8 6 - 8 9 :1 1

B u s in e s s .

r e s p e c t iv e ly .
The

fo r
fo r

IN C O M E

SO URCES

(B E - 5 4 ),

C o m m e rce ,

an d

p r ic e s ,

B u re a u

W a s h in g to n ,

19

o f

w r it e

E c o n o m ic

D .C .

20230.

th e

A n a ly s is ,

U .S .

In c o m e

IN V E N T O R IE S COMPARED WITH
M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND

MONTHLY
TRADE

SALES

.7 2

.6 8

.6 4

.6 0

.5 6

.5 2

.4 8

.4 4

.4 0

.3 6
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

SOURCE:
«BEGINNING

IN 1982,

INVENTORY O A T A R E F L E C T C H A N G E S

1986

1987

1988

1989

U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E

IN E S T I M A T I O N P R O C E D U R E S .

S HA D E D A R E AS R E P R E S E N T P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S .
L AT ES T D A TA P L O T T E D !




JULY P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102