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N a tio n a l E c o n o m ic
September 1989
R e v i s e d
than

h a d

data for the business

b e e n

sick leave
to

the

F r o m

reported.

vacation),

first q u a r t e r

of

a n d

1989,

the third quarter o f

f r o m

a previously

of output per
f r o m

1 9 8 6 - 8 9

investment

than

a n d

of slow.
the

w a s
the

the u se

the

S e cond,

1.8

xise in e n e r g y

prices

of

is u n u s u a l

F r o m

Thus,

f r o m

at

a

a near

usually

of

the

1981

did

d o m i n a t e d

T h e
h a v e

unusual
h a d

plant a n d
l a w

o n

productivity

pattern

of productivity

capital f o r m a t i o n .

e q u i p m e n t

c h a n g e s

growth.

overall

A s

first h a l f o f

largely
a

result,
1987;

spending
reversed
real

not

it h a s

Views



yet

g r o w t h

unusually

investment

plant a n d
to

1981-85

o f relative e n e r g y
d o m i n a t e

the

for

reported

the

0.7

force

than

they

prices

productivity

reported

1.8 percent

percent

F r o m

1.5

pace

(like
1 9 8 6

percent

0.7

early

rate.

annual

percent

rate, d o w n
g r o w t h

of productivity

rate

g r o w t h

rate.

e x p a n d s

as

a n d

b e e n

1989.

previous

m o r e

rapidly t h a n the labor force,

a result, p r o d u c t i v i t y

sector e m p l o y m e n t

h a v e

for, b u t n o t w o r k e d

to

previously

at a r e v i s e d

to 1 / 1 9 8 9 ,

faster;

1 9 8 6

is l e s s p r o n o u n c e d

its o w n

for

percent

productivity

w e r e

caused

1.7

both

before

a n d

p e r f o r m a n c e

faster t h a n

over

to

the

previous

accelerate

instead

after this p e r i o d .

g r o w t h

in the early

its

p e r c e n t rate, m u c h

rate

g r o w t h

productivity

in p r o d u c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s a n d

g r o w s

r o s e at a 2 . 9

to stagnate,

1980s.

resource e m p l o y m e n t ,

a

Unlike
similar

Similarly,

while

t h ese effects h a v e

performance.

In m i d - 1 9 8 1 ,
w a s

in

labor

w o u l d

f r o m

e m p l o y m e n t

e v e n

that are p a i d

hours

g r e w

percent

business

civilian

sharply higher

0.8

t h a t its r e c e n t s l o w i n g

hours

a n d

u p

III/1981

e x p a n d

1989,

cyclical pattern

doubling

rate,

First, w h e n

to early

rate

usual

output

productivity

full p e r i o d ,

respects.

1 9 8 6

percent

1986,

still s l u g g i s h

t h e d e c l i n e in e n e r g y p r i c e s in 1 9 8 6 c a u s e d c h a n g e s
not

1.1

s h o w

to e x c l u d e

o n

raised the previously

a

e q u i p m e n t

g r o w t h

to

to

w e r e

information

the

revision
1981

early

the

1 9 7 9

F o r

in t w o

prices w e r e
w h e n

n e w

rose

rate.

T h e

quarter

percent

e n ergy

h o w e v e r ,

percent

of plant a n d

one-half years.

1970s,

2

or productivity,

principal revisions

t o t h e first q u a r t e r o f

u n c hanged.

long-run pace.
both

T h e

incorporate

productivity

third

s l o w d o w n

a n d

sustainable,
faster

to

to

1981

reported

h o u r

late-1973

T h e

four

previously

a n d

sector’ output per hour,
s

in t h e

strong,

incentives,

e q u i p m e n t

regain

its

1980s

for e x a m p l e ,

1985

is p r i m a r i l y
tax

rising to
so

spending

c h a nges
12.5

d u e

to t h e

i m p r o v e d

percent

o f real G N P

that capital f o r m a t i o n
fell t o

an

average

offsetting
investment

of

slowed,
11.7

in

effects that tax l a w
incentives.
1985.

especially

percent

In

A s

1986,

changes

a result,

real

h o w e v e r ,

tax

relative to e m p l o y m e n t

o f real

G N P

in

1 9 8 6

a n d

the

level.

—

THE
FEDERAL
reserve :
RANK of
ST.IOITS
j

e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t official p o s i t i o n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m .

J o h n

A.

T a t o m

T O T A L C IV IU A N E M P L O Y M E N T
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2-88

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 3

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88 10-88

11-88 12-88

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89
114,055

5.4

2.8

114,275

2 .5

114,129

5—88

1.4

0.4

4-88

2.4

2.1

2.0

5 .7

5-88

1.4

0.9

0.5

1.4

6-88

2.2
2.0

2.0

7-88

8-88

1.9

1.7

9-88

10-88
11-88
12-88

1.9
1.9

2.1
2.0

1.7

1.7

1.8
2.0
1.9

- 1 .5

1.9

1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7

2.0
1.8

1-89

2.4

2 .5

2.5

2-89

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

3-89
4-89
5-89
6-89
7-89

2.4

2 .5

2.2 2.1
2.1 2.1
2.2 2.1
2.1 2.0
12-87

2 .5

2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0

1-88 2-88

114,660
114,405

-2 .7

5.1

1.8

6.5

2 .4

1.5

5.4

0.5

2 .5

1.4

1.1

1.5

2.8
2.6

1.6

2 .5

2.2
2.2

1.5

5.0

2 .9

2 .4

2 .7

2 .9

5.1

3.4

5.2

4 .4

1.5

2 .4

2 .9

2 .5

2.8

2 .9

5.1

5.5

5.1

5 .9

2.2

2 .9

2.1
2.1
2.1

2.6

2 .4

2 .5

2.6

2 .7

2 .4

2 .9

1.4

1.5

2 .4

2.2

2 .5

1.5

2.4

2 .7

1.7

2.0

2.2

10-88 11-88 12-88

2 .4

2.2

1.9

2 .5

2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0

5-88

4-8 8

5-88

6-88

2 .4

115,573

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5
2 .5

2.0

2.1

2 .5

1.8

2 .4

1.9

2.6
2.1

115,570

2 .4

2.2

2 .5

1.9

115,205

1.8

5 .2

1.9

2 .7

1.5

115,054

1.8
1.8

2.0
1.8
2.6

2 .4

2.6
2.6

115,001

2 .4

115,947

5.0

4 .0

2.2

2 .5

0.6

5.5

4 .0

4 .0

7.5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .5

2.1

2.1

2.2

7-88

8-88

9-88

2.6
2.2

116,009
116,711
116,853
117,136
-

0.2
0.4

1.5

1.2
1.8
1.2

1-89

2-89

117,113

0.8

1.1
2.2
1.2

1.5

5-89

4-89

5-89

1.4

117,215
117,541

5.4
-

0.8

117,459

6-89

IN ITIA L. MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 4» 1989

PAYROLL EM P LO YM EN T
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88 2-88

1-88
2-88

5.5

4 .2

4-88

5.2

5.6

5-88

5.0

5.5

5-88

6-88

7-88

IN IT IA L MONTH
OF PERSONS
9-88

8-88

THOUSANDS

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

5 .2

5-88

4-8 8

2.1
5.7

5-88

105,970
104,414
5.1

2.8
2.6

104,682
104,901

2 .5
2 .4

2.2

105,091

6-88

5.4

5.7

5.5

5 .4

5.8

5 .5

7-88

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.1

5 .5

5.9

105*561
2 .4

105,768

8-88

5.1

5.5

5 .0

2 .9

5 .0

5.5

2 .5

2.1

9-88

5.1

5.2

5.0

2 .9

5 .0

5 .2

2 .5

2 .5

2 .9

10-88
11-88
12-88

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5 .0

5.2

2.6

2 .7

5 .0

5.1

5 .2

5.5

5.1

5.1

5 .2

5.5

2 .9

5 .0

5.5

5*5

4 .0

5 .2

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.5

2 .9

5 .0

5 .5

5.4

5.6

5.1

1-89

5 .2

5.5

5.2

5.2

5 .2

5.4

5.1

5.2

5 .4

5.5

5 .7

5 .5

5 .9

2-89

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.2

5 .2

5.5

5.1

5 .2

5 .5

5.4

5.5

5.4

5 .5

5.0

5-89

5.1

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .2

2 .9

5 .0

5.1

5.2

5.2

5 .0

5 .0

2 .5

4-89

5.1

5.2

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5.1

2 .9

5 .0

5.1

5.1

5.1

2 .9

2.8

2 .5

5-89

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5 .0

5.1

5 .0

5 .0

5 .0

2 .7

2 .4

6-89

5.0

5.1

5.0

5 .0

5 .0

5 .0

7-89

5.0

5.0

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

5 .0

5-88

4-8 8

5-88

12-87

1-88 2-88

2.8 2 .9
2.8 2 .9
2.8 2.8
6-88

7-88

105,954
106,207
106,475
106,824

5.0

5.0

5 .0

2.8
2.8

2 .9

2 .9

2.8

2 .7

8-88

9-88

107,097

2.8
2.6

10-88 11-88 12-88

107,442
107,711

2.0
2.2
2.2

107,888
2 .4
2 .4

108,101
108,510

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2.6

2.8

2 .4

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .5

1.9

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4 -89

5-8 9

6-89

108,560P
108,729P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
AUGUST 4# 1989

2

EMPLOYMENT
RATI O SCALE
M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

R ATI O SCALE
SEASONALLY

M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

A D JU ST ED

SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEGINNING JANUARY 1906. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JULY PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF 3T. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT

SEASONALLY

RATE
PERCENT

A D JU STED

11.0

10.

10.0

9.

9.0

8.

8.0

7.

7 .0

6.

6.0

5.

5.0

4.




1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JULY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4.0

C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH

12-87

1-88
2-88

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

6-88

5-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982-84*100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

5 .5

116.1

5.7

2.1

116.5

5-88

5 .9

5.1

4 .2

4-88

4 .2

5.8

4 .7

5 .5

5-88

4 .4

4 .2

4 .9

5 .5

5 .2

6 88
—

4.4

4 .2

4 .7

4 .9

4 .7

116.7
117.2
117.7
118.1

4.2

118.6

7-88

4 .5

4 .4

4 .8

5 .0

4 .9

4.7

5 .2

8-88

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .8

4 .7

4 .5

4 .7

4 .1

9-88

4 .5

4.4

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .7

4 .8

4 .6

5 .2

4 .6

4 .5

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

5.1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .6

4 .7

4 .6

4 .5

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4.1

5.0

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4.4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4.1

5.6

4.1

1-89

4 .6

4 .6

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .7

5 .6

2-89

4.7

4 .6

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

5.4

5-89

4 .7

4 .7

4 .9

5 .0

4 .9

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .6

4-89

5 .0

4 .9

5.1

5 .2

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5.5

5 .6

5-89

5.1

5.1

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5 .4

5 .5

5 .5

5 .6

5 .7

6-89

4 .9

4 .9

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

7-89

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5 .0

5-88

4-88

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-83

10-88
11-88
12-88

12-87

1-88 2-88

119.0
119.5

120.0

5.1

120.5
120.7
121.4

7.2

6.1
6.1
6.6

121.9

5 .1
5 .6

6.1

6.4

7.1

122.5

5 .8

6.1
6.2

6 .7

6.6

7.1

7.6

7 .0

5 .5

5 .6

5 .9

5 .6

5 .8

5 .7

4 .5

2.0

5 .0

5 .5

5 .5

5 .2

5 .2

5 .0

4 .0

2 .4

2 .9

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

10-88 11-88 12-88

8.1

125.5
124.0
124.2
124.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 18. 1989

P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

1-88
2-88

4 .2

2 .5

4

4-88

4 .0

2 .7

4

5-88

5.9

2.8

5

6-88

5.6

2 .7

7-88

4.1

5.4

4

8-88

4 .0

5.4

4

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982 « 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-8 9

6-89

0.0

5-88

4 -88

8.2
4 .0

5-88

9-88

106.4
106.4

6
0
8

106.8
5.4

107.1

5.4

5.4

5 4

5.0

2.8

2.5

1
0

4 .0

4 .2

4 .6

6 .9

5 .9

4 .0

4 .2

5.1

5.4

107.4
107.6
108.2
108.5

4 .5

5.8

4 4

< .4

4 .5

4 .8

5 .7

5.1

6.8

4 .0

5.5

4

0

5 .9

4 .0

4.1

4 .5

5.7

5.9

5.9

5.5

5 9

5.8

5 .9

5.9

4 .5

5.6

5.7

0
8

5.9

5 .9

4 .0

4.5

5.8

5.9

4 .9

5 .0

5 .2

5 .6

5 .4

5 .8

5 4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .9

5 4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .8

5 .0

5 4

5 .4

5 .6

5 .8

5 .4

5 7

5 .8

6.0

6.2

10-88
11-88
12-88

4 .0

5.6

4

1-89

4 .7

4.4

4

2-89

5 .2

4 .9

5-89

5 .2

5 .0

4-89

5 .2

5-89

5 .5

109.1

6-89

5 .2

5 .0

5 5

5 .4

5 .5

5 .7

5 .9

5 .9

6.1

1..1
2.,2 5.5
5..0
5.9
5.,6
7.1
6..7 8.2
6. 5 7.6
6..4 7.5
7< 0
7.8
6. 0 6 .7

7-89

4 .6

4 .4

4 7

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

5.1

4 .9

5 .0

4«.9

1-88 2-88

5-#8

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

12-87




6.5

6.5

6.7

6.2
6.2
6.6

6.2
6.1
6.6

6.6
6.9

6*4

5 .5

9-8 8 10-88

109.2
109.5
4 .5
9.1
9.8
8 .7

8.1
8.6

109.9

111.1
112.1
112.6

15.9

12.6
10.2

11.4
8 .4

5 .5

9.0

7.4

5 .5

5 .5

9.4

8 .5

7.5

8 .5

11.1

115.1
114.1

1.0

7.1

7 .6

6 .4

5 .2

5.1

4 .9

-

5 .5

5 .7

4 .4

5.0

2 .4

1.4

-5 .1

-5 .1

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

5-89

6—89

11-88 12-88

114.0
115.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 11» 1989

4




RATIO SCALE
1982-100

P R I C E S
SEA SO N A LLY A D JU STED

RATIO SCALE
1982-100

CO
NSUM
ER PRICES DATA ARE O A 1982-84-100 BASE
N
CPI-U OATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE M
EASURE FO HOM
R
EOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAOES ARE ANNUAL RATES O CH
F
ANGE FO PERIODS INDICATED.
R
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O ST. LOUIS
F

ratio

scale

18-10
92 0

PRODUCER

PR IC ES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ratio

scale

18-10
92 0

PERCENTAOES ARE ANNUAL RATES O CHAN8E FO PERIODS INDICATED.
F
R
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2—
88
5-88

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

1982 * 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

9-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89
110.4

19.1

6.8
6.8

110.0
110.6
110.6
111.2
112.1

-4 .5

1.1

6.7

0.0

4-88

5 .0

0 .7

5 .5

5-88

5 .4

2.2

4 .4

5 .5

6.7

6 88
—

6.2

5.7

5 .8

5 .5

8 .4

7-88

6 .5

4 .6

6 .4

6 .4

8.6

9 .5

8 .9

8-88

6 .7

5 .0

6 .7

6.6

8 .4

8 .9

8 .5

7.7

9-88

7.2

5 .8

7.5

7.4

8 .9

9 .5

9 .2

9 .4

10-88
11-88
12-88

6.5

5 .2

6.5

6 .4

7.6

7 .7

7.1

6.5

11.1
6.0

6.5

5.1

6.2

6.2

7.1

7.1

6 .5

6.0

5 .4

5 .9

4 .8

5 .7

5 .6

6.5

6.2

5 .6

5 .0

1-89

6.7

5 .7

6.7

6 .7

7.4

7.5

7.1

6.8

2-89

7.0

6.2

*7.1

7.1

7 .9

8.0

7.7

7.6

10.2

112.9
115.6

4 .5

1.1
2.6
2.1

2.6

6.7

5 .6

7.2

1.0
8.6

16.8

7.5

6.8

8 .5

9.7

14.5

5 .4

6.1

8.8 10.0 15.1
6.2 6.6 8.0
6.8 7.5 8 .5

5-89

7.5

6.5

7.4

7 .4

8.1

8 .5

4-89

6.4

5 .6

6.4

6 .5

6 .9

6.9

8.0
6.6

5-89

6.7

5 .9

6.6

6.6

7.2

7.2

6.9

6.7

8.0
6.1
6.6

7.9
6.5

114.6
114.7
115.1

4.5

7 .5

115.2
116.7

11.5

10.7

5 .2

2.1

6.6

4 .8

6-89

5 .7

4 .9

5 .5

5 .5

5 .9

5 .8

5 .4

5.1

4 .9

4 .2

4 .6

4 .7

5 .5

5.1

7-89

5 .4

4 .7

5 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5.1

4 .8

4 .5

5.9

4.2

4 .2

4 .7

2.8

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

12-87

1-88 2-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

9-88

117.8

11.9

1-89

118.8
-5 .9

118.2

2.0 10.6
1.0 - 2.0 0.0
1.0 - 1 . 5 0.5

2-89

5-89

4-89

119.2
-9 .6

118.2

-4 .4

1.0

5-89

$-89

118.5

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS
AUGUST 11, 1989

P R O D U C E R P R IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2-88
5-88

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

1982 * 100

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

£-89

5.5

105.0

5.5

5.5

5.1

2 .9

2 .5

105.5
105.5

4-88

5.5

5.5

5 .5

4 .6

5-88

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.5

2 .5

6-88

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

1.1

0.0

7-88

5.1

5.1

5.0

5 .2

2 .7

2 .9

5 .8

8-88

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

2 .9

5.1

4 .6

5.4

9-88

5 .5

5.5

5.5

5 .4

5.2

5.4

4 .6

4 .0

4 .6

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

2 .9

5.0

5.7

5 .0

2.8

1.1

105.9
106.1
106.1
106.6
106.9
107.5

10-88
11-88
12-88

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

2 .9

5 .0

5.7

5.1

5.0

2 .5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5 .5

5 .4

4 .0

5.6

5 .7

5.4

1-89

4 .0

4.1

4 .2

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

5 .2

5 .1

5 .5

5 .7

2-89

4.4

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

4 .8

5 .1

5 .7

5 .7

6.1

6.4

5-89

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

5 .0

5 .6

5 .5

5 .8

108.2

7.5

9.5

12.9

7.1

11.0
8.0 8.8
9.2

109.5

110.1

9.1

8 .4

9.1

6 .9

7.2

8.1

8 .9

9 .6

7 .9
7 .5 10.2
8.8 8.6 10.8

6.4

6.6

7.5

7.9

8 .5

7.4

7 .0

7.8

5 .0

5.1

5 .2

5.6

5 .9

5 .9

4 .8

4 .0

7-88

8-88

1-89

2-89

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

5 .2

5 .2

5 .5

6.0

5.1

5 .2

5.4

5 .6

5 .7

5 .9

6 .5

6-89

5 .0

5 .1

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .6

6.1

6.0
6.6
6.2

7-89

4 .5

4 .5

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

5 .0

5-88

4-8 8

5-88

6-88




107.7
5 .7

6 .4

4-89

1-88 2-88

5.4

6.1
6.6

5-89

12-87

107.4

9-88 10-88

11-88 12-88

6.8

4 .4

110.5
111.4
11.5

112.4

5.8

6.6
1.8

2.2
- 2.6

-7 .2

5-89

4-89

5-8 9

6-89

112.6
111.9

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
AUGUST 11, 1989

6

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION
RAT I O SCALE

R ATI O SCALE

1977-100
150

1977-100
50

SEASONALLY AD JU STED

I. 62------------ 145

145

»•

140

I 4 1.

7■ 140

+5.5Z y

135
130

130

7 y

+0.6Z
_________

135

\77p

125

125

\ Jy^

120

115 >4.4Z

120

L

115

+.
110

110

A

105

105

/

V
100

95

100

^

*

t

t

s»

1981

1
...............t

1983

S —

95

?

t—

90

%

$

t

1982

*

*

^

t

i

90

____ s

^

♦

t

1984

1985

1!

1986

1987

1988

1989

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JULY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2-88
3-88

1977 « 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

9-88

4 .6

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

134.4

2 .5

0.0

2.4

1.5

154.4
2 .7

154.7

4 -88

5.4

5.0

4 .5

6.4

5-88

4 .0

5.8

5 .2

6.4

6.4

155.4
156.1

6-88

5.9

5.8

4 .8

5 .5

5 .0

5 .6

7-88

5 .5

5 .4

6.5

7.5

7.9

8 .7

14.0

8-88

5 .2

5 .5

6.2

6.9

7.0

7.2

9.1

4 .4

9-88

4 .7

4 .7

5 .4

5 .9

5 .8

5 .6

6 .5

2.6

0 .9

4 .9

156.5
158.0
158.5
158.6

10-88
11-88
12-88

5 .0

5 .6

6.1

6.0

5 .9

6.5

4.1

4 .0

7.2

4 .9

4 .9

5 .5

5 .8

5 .8

5 .7

6.1

4 .2

4.1

5 .8

4 .4

4 .9

4 .9

5 .4

5 .7

5 .6

S .5

5 .8

4 .2

4 .2

5 .5

4 .4

4 .4

1-89

4 .7

4 .8

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

5 .2

5 .5

4.1

4 .0

4 .8

4.1

5.9

5.5

2-89

4 .2

4 .2

4 .5

4 .7

4 .5

4 .5

4 .4

5.1

2 .9

5.5

2 .4

1.7

0.4

-2 .5

5-89

4 .0

4 .0

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4.1

4.1

2 .9

2 .7

5.1

2 .5

1.7

0.9

-0 .4

4-8 9

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

4 .8

4 .7

4 .5

4 .6

5 .6

5 .5

5.9

5.5

5.1

5-89

4 .0

4 .0

4 .5

4 .4

4 .2

4 .0

4.1

5.1

5 .0

5.5

2 .7

2 .4

2.8
2.1

6-89

5.7

5.6

5 .9

4 .0

5 .8

5 .6

5.6

2 .7

2 .5

2 .7

1.4

1.0

1.9

5.6

5.8

5.9

5 .7

5 .5

5.5

2 .7

2 .5

2 .7

2.2
2.2

1.8

7-89

5.6

1.9

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.0
2.1

5-88

4-8 8

5-8 8

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-8 9

5-89

12-87

1-88 2-88

159.4
159.9
140.4
140.8
140.5
140.7

1.7

2.6

5 .2

8 .9

1.7

5.2

5.9

141.7
-

0.8

-1 .5

141.6
141.4P

-1 .7

0.0

0.4

2.6

4-8 9

5-8 9

6-89

141.7P

IN IT IA L MONTH
PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 14* 1989

7

PERSONAL
RATI O SCALE

INCOME
RATI O SCALE

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

3 .6

3 .2

2.8

2 .4

2.0

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JULY PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

P E R S O N A L IN C O M E
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2-88

5-88

4-88

5-88

6-88

7-88

10-88 11-88 12-88

8-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

6-89

5-89

5 .9 2 1 .9

-4 .8
-

0.1

5-88

5.6

4-88

4 .8

5-88

4 .8

4-88

5 .4

7-88

1-88 2-88

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L MONTH
ANNUAL RATES
9-88

5 .9

5 .9 4 4 .2

7.0
9.1

11.5

5.9 79.5

10.0 8.6
8.0 8 .5 6.8
8.0 8.2 7.2
8.2 8 .5 7.8

4.0 0 7 .1

9 .0

8-88

5 .7

7.6

7.8

9-88

5 .9

7 .6

7.7

7.1

4 ,0 2 5 .5

5 .0
6.5
7 .5
6.7

8.1

4*049.4

8 .7

9 .4

7 .2

6.8

4 .5

7.0

5 .8

4 ,0 7 9 .8
4 ,0 9 4 .2

8 .9

9.1

6.8
8.8 8.8

15.5

19.6

7.6

7.7

7 .2

7 .0

7 .4

7 .2

6.7

7 .5

7.6

-5 .5

7 .9

8.0

7 .7

7 .5

7 .9

7 .9

7 .6

8 .4

8.8

5.8

11.5

7.7

9 .0

9.1

8 .9

8 .9

9 .5

9.7

9 .7

10.8

11.7

9 .2

16.0

20.8

2-89

8.1

9 .5

9 .5

9 .4

9 .4

9 .9

18.2

10.3

15.5

17.5

15.8

5-89

8 .5

9 .5

9 .7

9 .6

9 .7

18.1

10.4

10.5

10.7

14.4

15.S

12.9

12.1

8 .5

9 .4

9 .5

9 .4

9 .5

9 .9

10.1

18.2

18.1

15.8

15.4

11.1

9 .7

7 .4

5-8 9

7 .9

8 .9

9.1

8 .9

8 .9

9 .5

9 .4

4 .9

2 .5

7 .8

8 .7

8.8

8 .7

8 .7

9 .8

90

6 .9

5 .2

4^1

5 .7

7-89

7 ,9

8.8

8 .9

8 .7

8 .7

11.2 11.1 8 .9
10.4 10.2
8.2
1GJÉ 10.1 8 .4

7.2

4-89

7 .5

4 .2

5 .8

7 .5

9 .5

5-88

4^88

2-8 9

5 -8 9

4 -8 9

5-8 9

4-89

10-88
11-88
12-88

6.2
6.6

1-89

4—89

7 .2

12-87

1-88 2-88

7.1

7.5
9.6

10.0 10.2

7.4

1 0 .5 “ 11.5
11.4

4 ,1 1 8 .6

12.1
12.1

4*180.4

4-88

11.4

9 .4

9 .9

10.5

9 .8

9 .8

9 .5

9 .7

8.6

9 .0
5 -8 8

10.9

9 .5

9 .7

8 .7

7-8 8

8-88

9-8 8 18-88

4 .1 6 8 .9
4 .2 8 6 .5

11-88 12-88

4 .2 7 5 .1

1-89

4 .5 1 9 .5
4 .5 6 0 .7
4*586.8
4 .5 9 5 .7
4*416.2
4 .4 4 9 .OP

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E RANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 5 0. 19*9

t

RETAIL

SALES
RATI O SCALE

RATI O SCALE
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY AD JU STED

SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JUNE, JULY ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

R E T A IL S A L E S
(Compounded A nn ual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-87

1-88
2-88

MILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L MONTH

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-8 8

5-88

6-88

7-88

8-88

9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

5-8 9

6-89
130*364

4 .7
9.5

3-88

12.7

16.9

4-88

7.6

5-8 8

7 .8

8.6
8.6

131*846

14.5

133*797

19.3
5 .7
6 .7

0 .9

133*077

-6 .3

.8

8 .7

134*003

6 88
—

8 .2

8 .9

7.5

S

9.3

9 .9

7-88

7.6

8.1

6.9

4 .0

7.7

7.2

4 .6

8-88

7.2

7.6

6.5

4.1

6.9

6.3

4 .5

4 .3

9-88

6.1

6.3

5.1

2 .9

4 .9

4 .0

2.1

0.8

6.3

6 .9

135*060

10-88
11-88
12-88

7.4

7.7

6.9

5 .2

7.3

7 .0

8.1

8 .5

7.8

6 .5

8 .5

8 .4

7 .2

7.4

6.7

5 .4

7 .0

6.7

8.1
6.2

1-89

7 .2

7 .4

6.8

5 .6

7 .0

6.8

135*571

9 .0

136*050

2.6
8.2 20.1
10.6 17.9

135*751

-

137*842
139*529

15.7

6 .5

7.1

10.5

6 .0

6 .4

6 .7

7 .2

9 .8

6 .5

2 .2
-0 .3

139*189

-2 .9
7 .6

140*040

2-8 9

6 .3

6.4

5 .8

4 .6

5 .8

5 .4

4 .9

4 .9

5 .0

6.6

3 .5

1.0

-5 .1

3-89

5 .9

6.0

5 .4

4 .3

5 .3

5 .0

4 .4

4 .4

4 .4

5 .6

2 .9

0.0

0 .9

-

6 .7

6.2

5 .2

6.3

6.0

5 .7

5 .8

6.0

7 .3

5 .2

3.3

139.428

2.2

0.8

4 .9

4 .0

8 .9

17.6

139*516

5-8 9

6.6
6.8

6.9

6.4

5 .6

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.2

6.4

7.6

5 .9

4 .4

5 .9

5 .5

9 .2

13.7

10.0

6-89

6 .4

6 .5

6.0

5.1

6.0

5 .8

5 .5

5 .5

5 .7

6.6

5 .0

3.6

4 .7

4 .2

6.6

8 .7

4 .4

-0 .9

7-89

6.6

6 .7

6.3

5 .5

6.4

6.2

5 .9

6.0

6.2

7.1

5 .7

4 .6

5 .7

5 .3

7.6

9 .3

6 .7

5 .1

11.4

12-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

5-88

7-88

8-88

9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

4-8 9

6-88

141*413
142*543
142*44OP
143»731E

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY
E- ESTIM ATED




PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 11» 1989

H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R *
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e )

TERM INAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER

5-84

4-64

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-8«

2*86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1977-100

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-85

4-84

5.6

149.9

1-85

4.1

4.5

171.8

2-85

4 .1

4 .5

175.5

4.0

175.9

5—
85

4 .5

4 .7

4.8

5 .4

4-85

4 .8

5.1

5.5

4.0

4 .9

S.2

5.4

5.8

5.9

5^

4.9

5.1

5 .2

5 .5

5.4

5.0

4*5

18
-6
28
-6

178.6

4.5

181.0
185.0

5-86

4*8

5.D

5.1

5 .5

5.2

4.9

4 .4

4 .7

4-86

< .9

5.0

5 .1

5 .5

5 .2

4.9

4 .7

4.9

5 .1

1-87

4 .5

4 .7

4 .7

4.8

4.4

4 .3

4.0

-5.8

5.4

1.7

188.2

2-87

4.4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4.5

4.0

5.7

5.4

5.2

2 2
.1 .8

189.5

5-87

4.4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

4 .4

4.2

5.9

5.8

5.4

5.1

5.9

4 .9

4-87

4.6

4 .7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4*5

4 .4

4 .4

4.5

4.2

5 .0

4.1

7.5

4,5

4.6

4.4

4.6

4 .5

4 .5

4.2

4*2

4 .1

5.9

4.4

5.0

5 .9

2 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4 .7

4,4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.2

4 .7

5.2

5 .2

4.2

5.8

4*8

4 .8

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4.5

4.4

4.9

5 .5

5.4

4 .8

5.9

5 .9

18
^8
28
-8

4 .4

185.1
187.4

191.8
195.2
194.5
199.5

22
0 .2

5-88

4 .7

4 .8

4 .«

4-88

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

4 .9

4.7

4 .4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.9

5.5

5 .4

4 .9

5 .7

5 .4

5 .2

4.8

4 .7

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.9

5 .2

5.5

4.9

5 .4

5.5

5 .0

4.8

4 .8

4.8

5.1

5.4

5.5

5 .2

5.7

5.4

5 .5

5.4

4.5

M 4

4-84

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

3-88

4-88

1-89

1-89

4.7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

2-89

4.8

4 .9

4.9

5.0

4 .9

4.8

4 .8

4 .8

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-84

28
-6

18 28
-8 -8

204.8
207.2
210.5

INITIAL Q A T R
URE
■REVISED F O 1947
RM
P E A E BY FED AL R
RPRD
ER
ESER B N T F ST. LOUIS
VE A K J
AU U 5» 1989
O ST

O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R *
(Compounded A nnual H u t s o f C h u g t )

TER IN
M AL
QATR
URE
5-84

INITIAL Q A TE
UR R
4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

18 2-84
-6

4-84

1.9
2 .5

2.7

2 .4

2.9

3.2

4-85

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

5.1

3 .5

3.8

4 .0

4.5

5.2

4-87

18 28
-8 - 8

3-88

4-88

1-89

7.2

2 .4

3-87

1.5

18
-6

1977*100
2-87

3 .0

5*85

1-87

2 .3

2-85

4-84

4 .5

1-4»

3-84

-0 .7

105.7
104.3
107.1
1 .4

188.0
108.4
110.3

J-86

2 2 2 2
.6 .8 .8 .8
2 2 2 1.9
.0 .1 .1

1.5

1.5

-1 .5

-1 .8

4-84

1.9

1-9

1.9

1.7

1.3

1.3

-0 .4

-0 .5

0.7

1-87

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1 1
.2 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

0.5

1
.8

1.9

2-84

2-87

2
.0
4-87
2 2
.1 .1
18 2 2
-8 .1 .2
28 1 1
-8 .8 .8
5-88
1 U*
.*
4-88
1 1
.8 .8
1-89
1 1
.8 .8
5-87

2-89

2 .9

1.7

1.7

5-84

4-84

«REVISED F O 1947
RM




1 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.3
.8
2 1.9 1.7 1.7 0
.0
.8
2 2 1 1.9 1
.1 .0 .8
.1
2 2 1.9 2 1.4
.1 .1
.0
1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4)
.8
1.9
1 1.7 1.7 1
.8
.2
1.7
1.4
1.4
14
1
.1
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5
1
.1
1 .4
1.5
1.5
■1*7
1
.1
1-85

2-85

*-85

4 -»

1-84

10
1 .1
109.4
109.8
0.4

109.9

0 .5

1.3

1.4

2.9

1
.2

1.9

2 .3

3.5

3.7

2.5

3 .2

3.5

1.7

2
.1
2
.2

1
.2

110.7
111.7

1.4

1.4

2.9

1.4

$ 5.1 2 .9
.1
1 2 1 1
.8 .0 .8 .2
1 2 2 2 1.7
.8 .0 .2 .1

1.3

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.4

14

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.5

3-86

4-84

H 7

2-87

3-87

1
.2
1
.2
2-84

2 .5

112.5
2.9
9.4
1.3

1
.0
1
.0
1
.0
4-87

113.5
-2 .1

112.7

0.5

3.2

0.4

1.4

0
.0

0.5

1.4

0.5

0.4

1.3

0.7

18 28
-8 -8

113.4

3-88

113.4

1
.1
1 1
.1 .1
4-88

113.9
114.2

1-89

INITIAL Q A T R
URE

PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS
AUOUST 3* 1989

10

P R O D U C T I V IT Y ,

17-10
97 0

R A T IO

C O M P E N S A T IO N ,

AND

LA BO R

SCALE

C O STS

R A T IO

*

17-10
97 0

SCALE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 96 99
SOURCEi U.S. DEPARTM
ENT O LA«Oft
F
PERCENTAOES ARE ANNUAL RATES O CH
F
ANCE FO PERIOD* INDICATED.
R
LATEST OAT* PLOTTED 21® O ARTE« PRELIMINARY
U
*M V IS W m M 194?
PREPA1EO §Y FEDERAL RESMVE MMK O ST. LOUIS
F

Vtm L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S

SECTO R *
( Q m p o n M A ra n a l R i t a 8 f Cbaage)

TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER

1 -8 4

4 -8 4

1 -8 5

2
.8
2
.1
1 * 7

1 .5

2 -8 5

1

- «

4 -8 5

1 -8 4

2 -8 4

5 -8 4

4 -8 4

1 -8 7

1977*1«
2 -8 7

5 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 - 8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 .5

2 -8 5

1 -8 5

4 -W

1 4 8 .7
1 4 1 .4
0 .7

1 4 1 .9

1
,1

1 .9

1 .7

2 .7

4 -e s

2 .5

2 .4

2 .7

1 .7

4 .7

i- # 4

1 ,7

1 .7

1 .5

1 4

1 .4

2

2 2 2
.1 .1 .1
2
.8
1
.8
1
.2
1 1
.0 .1
28
*
1 1 1
.2 .1 .0

M

S

- M

I- M

2 .7

1 .7

1 4 4 .9
- 1 ,9

1 .4

1 .4

2 .9

2 .7

1 .4

2 .9

2 .9

1 -8 7

1 4 1 .0

1 .7

1 .5

2 .9

1 4 4 .1
5 .5
4 .4

5 .1

5 .2

4 .1

4 .5

5 .9

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .9

2 .9

* -« 7

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

4 -8 7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2
.8

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .5

-8 «

4 -^ 8 8
1 -8 9
2 -8 9

2 2 1
.8 .8 .8
2 2 1
.8 .8 .0
1
.1
2
1 1 1
.8 .8 .2
1 1 1 1
.8 .1 .2 .1

2 .7
2 .7

. f

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

5 -8 4

4 -8 4

1 -8 5

M

S

1 4 8 .9
1 7 0 .4
1 .4

2 4

2 .4

1 .9

5 .5

2 .5

2 .4

0 4

1 .4

0 4

2 .9

2 .5

2 4

5 .0

5 .4

2 .5

FRO M

0 .5

1 4

1 .4

1 .5

5 .5

5 .2

1 4

5 .1

2 .7

2 .4

2 .7

2 .7

2 .5

2 .7

5 .5

2 .9

4 -8 5

1 7 1 .5

4 .1

4 .0

5 .8

1 .4

5 .4

1 7 5 .5

5 .0

5 .4

4 .0

5 .9

1 7 4 .9

2 .7

5 .2

1 7 8 .1
4 4

1 8 0 .2

5 .0

5 .5

5 .7

» 4 S

1 7 1 .4

4 .5

1 .7

5 .1

5 .1

1 7 1 .5

0 .7

2 .4

1 .7

1 .5

1 -8 4

2 -8 4

2 .9

5 .1

1 .5

4 .0

1 .9

4 .8

5 .8

4 .1

1 4

5 4

5 ,2

5 ,4

5 4

4 .2

4 .1

5 .0

4 .2

4 .7

4 .7

5 .4

5 -8 7

4 -8 7

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

5 -8 4

4 -8 4

IN IT IA L
< 4 t iE V 1 3 £ D

1 7 1 .2

0
.2
1
,0
2 1
.1 .0
1
.2
2
.2
1
.8
2
.1
2 0
.2 .8
2
.8
1
.1
8
.1
1 2 1
.0 .8 .1
1
.2
1
.8
2
.8
1
,8
1
.1
1 1
.1 .2

2 -8 7

18
-8
2
18
-8

1 4 4 ,1

5 .9

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

18 28 18
-8 - 8 - 8

1 8 1 .9
1 8 4 .4

Q UARTER

1 9 4 7




PREPARED BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS
AU UST 3» 1989

8

11

G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

QUARTER
5-84

4-8 4

4-84

6 .5

6.0

6 .7

5-85

6 .5

4-85

6 .5

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-8 7

1-88 2-88

5-88

4 -88

ANNUAL RATES
1-89

7 .9

2-85

2-8 5

4 .7

1-85

1-85

5»851.8

1-86
2-86

6.4

6.8
6.6
6.8

5 .7

5 .9

5 »925.6
5 .6

5*979.0

6.5

7 .0

6.2

6.6
6.8

6.2

6.5

6.7

7.5

5 .4

5 .4

4 .9

4.5

1.5

4*047.0
4*107.9
4*181.5
4*194.7

5-86

5 .7

5 .8

5 .5

5 .5

5.1

4 .7

5.5

5 .7

4-86

5 .5

5 .6

5 .5

5 .5

4 .9

4 .6

5.7

5 .0

4.2

1-87

5 .8

5 .7

5 .8

5 .6

5 .0

6.2

6.5

8.8

6.0
6.2

6.1

5 .9

5 .6

6.7

7.0

8 .5

8.2

6 .5

6.2

6.1

7 .0

7.4

8 .4

8 .5

6.5

7.4

7.7

6.5

7.2

7.5

5-87

6.1
6.2

4 -87

6.0
6.2

6 .5

2-87

1-88
2-88

6 .4

6.6
6.6

6 .5

6.6

5-88
4 -88

6 .7

6.8
6.8

6 .7
6 .7

2 -89

5-84

6.5

6.6
6.7

6.6
6.6

6 .5
6.5

6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8

6.7

7.4

7.6

6.8

7.4

7.6

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.6

6.9

7.0

6.9

7.5

7.6

7.0

7.5

7.6

6 .7

6.7

6.8
6.8

6.8
6.8

6 .9

6 .9

6.8
6.8

6 .9

6.9

6.9

6 .9

7.0

4-8 4

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-85

6.8
6.8

1-89

6 .5

4*255.5

1-86 2-86

5-86

4*297.5
4*588.8
4*475.9
8 .4

8.6 8 .5
8.2 8.0
8.2 8.1
8.1 8.0
8.1 7.9
8.0 7 .9
8.0 7 .9
4-86

4*566.6

8 .7

7.7

6.5

8.1
8.0

8.0

7 .5

7.9

7.5

8.6
8.1

7.5

7.9

7.8

7 .5

7.9

7.5

7.5

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.9

7.6

7.7

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.8

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

2-87

1-87

9 .0

7.9

5-87

4-8 7

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

4*665.8
4*759.8
4*858.5

1-88 2-88

4*926.9
5*017.5
5*115.1
5*205.8P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 27* 1989

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84
4-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-8 6

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-8 6 1-87 2-87

1.7

5-87

4-8 7

1-88

2-8 8

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

5*535.2

1-85

5.5

4 .9

2-85

5 .0

5 .7

2 .4

5-85

5.5

5 .8

5 .5

4 .1

4-8 5

5.2

5 .6

5 .2

5 .5

5.0

5*577.5
5*599.2
5*655.8
5*662.4

1-86
2-86

5.8

4 .2

4 .0

4 .5

4 .7

6.6

5 .0

5 .2

2.8

2 .9

2 .5

2 .5

-

5-86

2 .7

1.8

-0 .5

4-86

2.6

1.9

0.4

2.8
2.8

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2.1
2.1

5*721.1

1.8

5*704.6

1-87

2 .9

5.1

2.8

2 .9

2 .7

2.6

1.7

0.8
1.6
2.8

5.8

5 .4

2-87

5 .0

5 .2

5 .0

5.1

2 .9

2 .9

2.2

5.2

4.0

4 .9

4 .4

5-87

5.2

5 .4

5 .2

5 .5

5 .2

5.2

2 .7

5.6

4 .5

5 .0

4 .8

5 .5

4-8 7

5.5

5 .6

5 .5

5 .6

5.6

5.7

5.5

4.1

4 .8

5 .4

5 .4

5 .9

6.6

1-88
2-88

5.5

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

5 .6

5.7

5.4

4.1

4.7

5.1

5.1

5 .5

5 .5

4 .0

5.5

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

5 .6

5.7

5.4

4 .0

4.5

4 .9

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

5 .9

5.7

5*712.4
5*755.6

2.5

5*785.0
5*825.5
5*872.8
5*955.6
5*974.8
4*010.7

5-88

5.5

5 .6

5 .6

5 .6

5 .6

5.7

5.4

4 .0

4.4

4 .6

4 .5

4 .6

4 .4

5 .6

5.4

5.2

4 -88

5.5

5 .6

5 .5

5 .6

5 .5

5.6

5.5

5 .8

4.2

4 .4

4 .5

4 .2

4 .0

5 .4

5 .2

2 .9

2 .7

4*042.7

1-89

5 .5

5 .6

5 .5

5 .6

5 .5

5.6

5.5

5.8

4.1

4 .5

4 .2

4 .2

4 .0

5 .5

5 .5

5 .2

5 .2

5.7

2-89

5.4

5 .5

5.5

5 .5

5 .5

5.5

5.5

5.7

4.0

4 .2

4 .0

4 .0

5.8

5 .5

5.2

5.1

5 .0

5 .2

2 .7

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

4*069.4
4*106.8
4*154.OP

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 27» 1989

12

G R O S S

N A T IO N A L

R A TIO SCALE
QUARTERLY TOTALS
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
SEASONALLY

P R O D U C T

AT A NN U A L

R A TIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

RATES

ADJUSTED

5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0

2 . 8

2 . 6

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANIMAL RATES OF C H AM E FOR FERIO O S IN D IC A TE D .
L A TE S T OATA P LO TTED t 2ND M A R TE R PR ELIM IN AR Y




PREFA RED

13

BY

F E K R A L

R ESER V E

BA N K

OF

S T .

L O U IS

GENERAL

PRICE

INDEX*

RATI O SCALE

RATI O SCALE

1982-100

1981

1982-100

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS

1987

1988

1989

SOURCE* U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* 2ND QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

I M P L I C I T P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5 -84

4-84

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

1982 « 100
2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88 2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89
109.0

4 -84

5 .0

1-85

2.8

2.6

2 -8 5

5 .0

5.0

5 .5

5-85

2 .9

2.8

2 .9

2.6

4-8 5

2 .9

2 .9

5.1

2 .9

5.5

1-86
2-86

2.6
2.6

2 .5

2 .5

2.2

2.0

0 .7

2.6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

1.8

2 .9

5-86

2 .9

2 .9

5 .0

2 .9

5.0

2 .9

4 .0

5 .0

2.8
2.8

2.8
2.8

2 .7

2.7

2.6

5 .2

5.4

1.8

1-87

2.8
2.8

2.8

2.8

2 .7

5.2

5.5

2 .5

5.2

2-87

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

5.5

5.4

2.9

5.5

5.8

5-87

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

5 .2

5.5

2 .9

5.3

5 .5

4-87

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2.8

5.1

5 .2

2.8

5.0

1-88
2-88
5-8 8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8
2.8

2.8

2 .7

5.0

5 .0

2.7

2 .9

2 .9

5 .0

2 .9

5.0

2 .9

5 .2

5 .2

5 .0

5 .0

5.1

5 .0

5.1

5.1

5.5

4-88

5.1

5.1

5 .2

5 .2

5.2

5.2

1-89

5 .2

5 .2

5 .2

5 .2

5.5

2-89

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

5-84

4-84

1-85

2 -8 5

4-86

109.7

110.6
111.5

112.2
112.4
115.2
114.6
115.1
116.0
117.1

5 .0

2.8
2.6

2 .4

2.8

2.8

2 .4

2.2

2.0

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.4

4 .8

5.5

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.4

5.7

4 .6

4 .4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

4 .0

4 .6

4 .5

4 .7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

4 .0

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .0

5.5

5.5

5 .6

5 .6

5.5

5.7

5 .7

5.7

5.8

4.1

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .6

5-85

4-85

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-8 7

5-88

4-88

1-89

1-86 2-86

117.9
118.6
119.2

120.6

1-88 2-88

121.9
125.5
124.5
12 5 .9P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 27» 1989

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

«-8 4

7

4-84

1-86
2-86
5-86

7 4

7.4

4-86

7 5

7.5

1-87

7

2

2-87

2-85
5-85
4-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

5-8 8

4 -8 8

1-89

2*554.9
2»5 9 9 .3

7.1
8 .5

9.9

2*661.4

7.7

7.9

6.0

7.0

7 .0

5 .6

5.1

5 .0

4 .5

4 .0

6.2
6.2
6.5

6.8
6.6
6.6

2*700.4
2*734.3

6.4

6.2

7.0

6.9

7.2

6.8
6.8

6.8
6.8

6.2
6.2
6.2

7 5

7.5

7.2

7.2

6.9

7.0

5-87

7

7.7

7.4

7.5

7.2

4-87

7

7.5

7.1

7.1

6.8

7

7.4

7.2

7.2

7

7.4

7.2

7.2

5-88

7

7.4

7.2

7.5

7.0

7.1

7.5

7.7

7 .5

4-88

7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.5

1-89

7

7.4

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.6

7.4

7.6

7.7

7.5

2-89

7

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.4

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88
2-88

1-88 2-88

4-8 7

2 ,4 9 5 .4

8 7 10.2
8 2 8 .7
8 6 9.1
8 1 8 .5
7 6
7.7
7 1
7 .0

1-85

1-85

2

5-84

2*761.0
2*826.0

9.8
7.9

6.2

7.5

6.4

7.4

8 .5

7 .8

7.5

7.7

8 .5

6.9

7.1

7.6

6.9

7.1

7.5

7.0

7.1

7.5

2*868.5

10.7

8.1

6.6
8.6
8.8

9.9

9.2

7 .2

7.5

7.8

6.4

7.8

7 .5

7.7

8.0

7.1

7.7

7 .5

7.7

7.9

7.2

7.6

7.8

7.6

7.8

1-86 2-86

2*914.7
2*989.4
3*055.9
3*083.5

5.6

7.4

7.3

6.1 8 .7
6.6 8.0
6.8 7 .9

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.8

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.0

7.7

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.1

7.1

7 .7

7.5

7.5

7.6

7 .5

8 .0

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

3*148.1
5*204.9
5*265.4
5*324.0
5*381.4
3*446.8P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 27» 1989

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-84

1-85

4-84
1-85

5 .6
4 .8

5 .0

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5.2

3-87

4-87

1-88 2-88

3-88

4-8 8

1-89

6.8

2-85

2-85

4 .5

2*281.1
2*519.1
2*557.4

3-85

5 .5

5 .6

5 .0

6.8

4-8 5

4 .6

4 .6

5.9

4 .3

2*375.9
1.9

2*386.9

1—84

4 .5

4 .5

4 .0

4 .2

5.0

4.1

2-86

4 .4

4 .4

5.9

4.1

5.2

5.8

5.6

3-86

4 .5

4 .5

4.1

4 .3

5.7

4 .4

4 .5

5 .4

4-86

4 .2

4 .2

5.9

4 .0

5.4

5.8

5.7

3.8

2*410.9
2*432.4
2*464.4

2.2

2*477.8

1-87

5.8

5.8

5 .4

3.4

2 .9

5.1

2.8

2 .5

l.l

0.1

2-87

3.9

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.1

5.5

5.2

3.1

2 .5

2.4

5-87

4 .0

5 .9

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.4

3.4

2 .9

5.2

4 .8

4 .7

4-87

5.6

5.5

5.2

5 .5

2 .9

5.0

2.8

2 .7

2.2

2.2

2 .9

2.0

-0 .7

2*478.3
4 .8

2*507.7
2*536.5
2*532.5

1-88
2-88

5.8

5.7

5 .5

5.5

5.2

5.4

5.5

3 .2

2 .9

3.0

5.7

3.4

2.7

6.2

5.7

5.7

5 .4

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.2

3.1

2.8

2.9

5.5

3.2

2 .7

4 .4

2 .5

3-88

5 .7

5 .6

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.5

5 .2

3.1

2 .9

5.0

5 .5

5.2

2.8

4 .0

2 .9

4-88

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.1

5.5

5.2

3.1

1-89

5.6

5 .5

5 .5

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.1

3 .0

2-89

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.0

3 .0

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

2 .9

2.8
2.8
5-86

2*570.8

3.0

5.4

5.2

2 .9

5 .8

5 .0

2.9

5 .2

5.0

2 .7

5 .4

2 .7

2.8

5.1

2 .9

2 .7

5 .2

2.6

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-8 7

2*586.8
2*608.1

5 .5
5.2

2.8
2.6

1-88 2-88

2*627.7

5 .0

2 .4

2.0
2.1

2.2

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

2 .5

2*641.0
2* 655 .5P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS
AUGUST 27» 1989

15

G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )

B IL L IO N S OF

TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
5-84

4-8 4

4-84

-5 .6

-2 .9

5-85

-6 .5

-7 .0

4-85

-1 .9

-

1-86
2-86

-

5-86

-1 .7

5-85

1-86 2-86

4-85

5-86

1-87

4-86

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

- 9 . 0 -1 2 .9

2-85

2-8 5

-5 .0

1-85

1-85

DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

4-86
1-87

661.8

1.2

659.5
8 .4

652.5

- 5 . 9 -1 4 .8

0.6

18.7
19.1

1.5

2 .7

7.0

6.5

1.1

-0 .5

2.2

0.8
- 0.6

1.2
- 1 . 4 - 1.0
0.2 0.8
-

0 .9

0.8
2.6

1.5

0.7

2-87

626.7

5.1

-0 .4

654.1
19.4

1.0 -1 4 .7

5.4

- 1 .5 -1 0 .5

2.8

-

0.8

1.8

4 .9

2 .5

2 .4

5.1

685.8

6.5

5.1

5.0

6.8
- 1.6
0.0

-

657.2
- 5 .7

647.7

-2 . 5

0.7

5.2

8.0

15.8

4.1

7.6

11.2

648.8
675.1
6 .7

684.1

5-87

1.1

1.7

5.5

2 .7

5.1

5.5

0.9

4 .5

7.0

9.1

5 .9

4-87

5.5

4 .2

6.0

5 .7

8 .5

7.1

5 .4

9.2

12.4

15.6

15.5

1-88
2-88

2 .4

5 .0

4 .5

4.1

6.2

4.9

5.2

6.1

8 .3

5 .0

5 .6

5 .0

4 .7

6.7

5.5

4.1

6.7

8.2 9.7
8.6 10.0

20.1
8.8

8 .9

9.4

5 .2

10.1
6.6

5-88

5 .6

4 .2

5 .5

5 .5

7 .2

6.2

4 .9

7.4

9.1

10*4

9.5

4 -8 8

2.8

5 .5

4 .5

4 .2

5 .8

4.8

5.6

5 .6

6.9

7.7

6.6

1-89

5.1

5 .6

4 .7

4 .5

6.0

5.1

4 .0

5 .9

7.1

7.9

6.9

7.0

2-8 9

5.1

5.6

4 .6

4 .4

5 .8

5.0

5.9

5 .6

6.7

7.4

6.4

6.4

5-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-85

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

1-86 2-86

692.8
37.1

749.7

10.7 -1 0 .7

10.8

728.8

-0 .5

11.2

11.3

5.8

11.9

12.7

6 .9

0.4

4 .4

1.2

-9 .2

5 .6

5.8

-0 .4

5 .0

5.5

2.1
6.6 2.2

7.3

5-87

4-87

748.4

1-88 2-88

771.1
752.8
9.2

769.6

0.6

5 .9

2 .7

5-88

4-88

1-89

7 7 4 .7P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS
AUGUST 27. 1989

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84
4-8 4

4-8 4

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

-5 .0

8.8 -1 2 .4

1-85

-

-5 .5

-2 .5

5-85

-6 .9

-7 .6

4-8 5

-

-

1.2

1-86
2-86

-1 .9

-1 .4

5-86

-5 .0

4-8 6

-5 .5

1-87

-

2-87

-0 .4

5-87

0.4

1.1

4-88

1-89

0.2 20.8

2 .9

-2 .7

6.6
1.0
- 1.0

0.8
- 2.8

-5 .1

-1 .7

-5 .4

2 .5

0.6
0.1

618.1

5 .9
-

19.6

648.0

1.8 -1 8 .5

-

1.1

-4 .7 -1 4 .5 -1 0 .5

-0 . 4

-5 .1 -

11.8

0.2

-4 .4

625.1
-

6.2

615.2

6.9

21.8

-2 .5

6.8

15.9

2.1

-0 .4

5.6

7.5

12.4

5 .0

1.6

0 .7

5 .5

0.9

2 .5

1.6

4 .2

-

-8 .5

0.8
2.2

0.1

0.9

642.3

5 .5

0 .9

-

676.1

18.5

-

646.5

6.6
8.0

9.5

15.7

20.6

52.8

9.4

10.5

10.8

4 .4

7.1

5 .5

5.8

2 .5

5 .7

5.2

5 .5

5.9

2 .5

8.0 12.1 17.2
5 .6
8.6 11.8

1.9

2 .4

5 .7

5 .5

5 .4

5.9

2 .4

5 .4

7.9

2 .5

5 .0

4 .2

5 .9

5 .9

4 .6

5.5

6.1

8 .5

2.0

5 .0

2.6

4 .5

5.0

1.7

4 .0

5.8

1-89

1.6
1.8

2 .5

5 .5

2 .9

4 .5

5.5

2.2

4 .5

5.9

7.5

2-89

1.7

2.1

5 .0

2 .7

4.1

5.0

1.9

5.8

5.2

6.4

5-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-8 5

5-85

4-85

5-86

4-8 6

1-87

5-88

5-88

647.5

- 5 . 0 -1 7 .0

4 .8

4-88

1-88 2-88

634.3

5 .2

1-88
2-88

4-87

8.6

2.6
1.8

4-8 7

5-87

655.7

2-8 5

2.0
1.2

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

1-86 2-86

656.7

8.2 8.6
10.6 8.8 9.5
10.4

7.4

671.7

8 .4

721.1
707.0

-7 .6
-

2.1

9.2

2 .5

7.7

5 .5

4 .4

-1 .7

0 .4

5 .6

5 .5

4 .8

4 .9

4 .7

4 .0

2-87

5-87

5 .4

-

0.0
0.2

4-87

715.5

5.7

11.8
1.2 -1 2 .7

755.6
709.1

-

2.0

1.4

-5 .4

1.4

0.8

-

1-88 2-88

721.1

6.9

2.6

2 .9

5-88

4-88

-

1.0

719.2P

1-89

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 27» 1989

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a te s o f C h a n g e )

C U R REN T D O LLA R S

B IL L IO N S OF

TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-84

5-84
4-84

2-85

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

DOLLARS
5-87

4-87

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

9.9

1-85

1-85

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

10.4

764.5

2-85

10.8
10.0 10.0

9.1

5-85

12.5

15.4

14.7

20.6

4-85

11.6 12.1

12.5

14.2

8.1

8.2

2 .4

-5 . 0

8 .4

4 .6

5.0

1-86
2-86

784.4
80 1.7
84 0.2
85 6.7
85 0.5

9.1

8 .9

8 .4

9.1

8 .9
8 .4

8.6
8.0

7.8

4 .8

5.7

7.2

5 .2

7.8

7.4

7.1

4 .6

5.8

6.1

4 .6

4 .0

7 .9

7.5

7.5

5 .2

4 .7

6 .7

5 .8

6.1

8 .5

7.5

7.2

6.9

5.1

4.6

6.2

5 .5

5 .6

6.4

4.4

6.0
6.1

6.7

5 .9

7.5

6.6 6.0

6.8

6.5

1-87

8.6
8.1
8.1

2-87

7 .8

5-86
4-86

86 9.5

9 .2

5-87

7 .7

7.5

7.2

7.0

5 .4

5 .0

6.4

5 .8

4-87

7.6

7.4

7.1

6.9

5 .5

5 .2

6.4

5 .9

1-88
2-88

7.0

6.8

6.4

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.2
6.2

5-88

6.4

6.2

5.9

4-88

7.4

7.2

7.0

88 0.5
8 8 8.9
906.9
916.8
955.2
947.5
945.7

4.5

5 .5

4 .9

4 .9

5.1

4 .5

4 .2

2 .7

5 .0

4 .7

5 .5

5.1

5.1

5.5

4 .7

4 .7

5.9

2 .7

6.2

5 .7

4 .5

4 .2

4 .9

4.4

4 .4

4.4

5.8

5.6

2 .7

1.6

2 .7

6.9

5 .9

5 .7

6.5

6.2

6.4

6.7

6.4

6.6

6.7

9.4

5 .8

5 .9

6.1

5.8

5 .8

5 .7

7.4

7.8

12.5

1.8

6.0

6.1

6.5

6.0

6.8
6.0
6.2

6.1

6.1

7 .5

7 .8

10.8

4 .7

7 .7

1- 8« 2-86

5—86

4-86

1-87

5-87

4-8 7

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

1-89

7.1

6.9

6.7

6.5

5 .6

5.4

2-89

7.1

7.0

6.7

6.6

5 .7

5 .5

5-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

6.1
6.2

2-87

-

0.8

4 .8

960.1

0.6
11.0

958.6

-

25 .9

1.0 1 1 .4
1.0 1 6 .0
1♦034.9P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 27. 1989

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annua) Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84

4-8 4

4 -84

6.2
6 .5

6 .9

5-85

4-85

1-86 2-86

5-87

4 -87

1-88 2-88

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

7.5

2-85

2-85

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

5 .2

1-85

1-85

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87

695.2

5-85

9.5

4 -85

7.9

11.0
8.6

5 .7
6 .5

1-86
2-86

705.5
6.5

716.7

15.0

19.8

9.0

10.5

5 .8

5 .5

5.1

6.4

6.5

6.2

749.8

1.6
- 1 .5

5-86

5 .7

5 .8

5 .6

5 .4

4-8 6

5 .7

5 .8

5 .6

5 ,4

2.0
2.1
2.8

1-87

5 .2

5 .2

4 .9

4 .7

2-87

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .0

752.7
-4 .5
2 .5

744.1
9.5

761.2

2.2

5 .8

2.1

5.1

5 .8

5.9

5 .8

2 .4

2 .5

4 .4

2 .7

5 .0

0.5

1.9

2.0

5.5

1.8

1.7

-0 .5

765.2
776.0

5-87

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .0

2.2

2 .5

5.5

2 .5

2 .4

1.5

4-87

4 .6

4 .5

4 .5

4.1

2 .5

2.6

5.6

2 .7

2.8

1-88
2-88

5 .6

5.5

5.2

2 .9

2.1

1.0

0.9

5 .7

5.5

5.5

5 .0

2 .5

1.4

1.5

776.6
-0 .9

1.5

1.5

1.6
1.1
2 .5

5-88

5 .2

5.1

2.8

2 .5

1.6
1.1

4-88

5 .9

5.9

5.6

5.4

2 .5

1.8

4 .5

2 .7

4 .5

4 .5

0.2

0.0
1.0
0.1

2.1
0.1
- 1.0

2 .7

2 .5

1.7

0.9

0.7

2.1
- 0.1
0.6
0.0

5 .0

2 .5

2 .4

1.9

0.1
2.2

1.8
2.2

1.8
2.2

1.5

1.5

1.8 2.0

1-86 2-86

5-86

1-89

5 .5

5.4

5.2

5.0

1 .9

1 .9

2 .4

2-89

5 .7

5 .6

5.4

5 .2

2.1

2.2

2 .7

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

4-85

4-86

774.9

-

0.7
-

1-87

785.5
792.1

-

-8 .5

-

-2 .5
-2 .7

1.8

1.4

1.8
0.8

2 .4

2.1

1.7

2-87

5-87

4 -8 7

775.1
4 .1

0.2

785.0
-5 .6

775.9

5 .4

6.1

5 .2

2 .9

6.2

5 .8

5 .7

6 .5

1.4

6 .5

5 -88

4-8 8

1-89

1-88 2-88

16.7

8 0 6.4
-5 .5

799.7
812.QP

IN IT IA L QUARTER
PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FED ERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 2 7 . 1989

17

D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a te s o f C h a n g e )

B IL L IO N S OF

DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER

t e r m in a l

QUARTER
3-84

4 -84

1-85

4-84

5 .5

8.0

9.1

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

4—85

6.1

1-86 2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88 2-88 5-88

4-88

1-89

13.1

3-85

4-85

5 .4

2-85

3-85

5 .7

1-85

2-8 5

2 .7 2 8 .6
2 .7 6 4 .6
2 .8 5 0 .7
-1 .5

2 .8 4 0 .0

6.3

6.6

3 .5

1-86
2-86

6 .5

6.7

7 .0

5 .1

8.6
8.6

8 .5

6 .5

6.7

6 .9

5 .5

7.9

7.5

6.5

3-86

6.0

4 .8

6.5

5 .8

4 .4

2.4

4-86

5 .9

6.1
6.0

4 .9

6.2

5 .7

4 .7

3.8

5.3

2 .8 9 9 .5
2 .9 5 9 .2
3 .0 0 6 .5

1-87

6.4

6 .5

6.2
6.0
6.6

5 .7

7.0

6.7

6.2

6.1

8.0 10.8

2-87

5 .7

5 .8

5 .8

4 .9

5 .9

5 .4

4 .8

4.4

5.0

3-87

6.2

5 .7

6.6

7.0

5 .2

11.3

6 .7

6.2
6.8
6.8
6.8

5 .9

4-87

6.8

7.7

8 .4

7.6

11.9

6.9

7.6

7.4

10.3

9.7

7 .0

6.9

7.6

7.4

9.5

8 .9

7.1

6.3

5 .6

6.5

6.2

6 .9

6.3

7.2

7.0

6 .9

6 .3

7.2

7.0

6.8
6.8

6 .9

6 .4

7 .2

7.0

6.9

3.0 2 4 .3
3.0 6 3 .4

4 .9

3 .1 4 2 .8
-

0.6

3.1 38.1
3 .2 2 3 .5
12.4

3 .3 19.4

3-88

6 .9

7.0

7.1

7 .2

7.1

7.1

7.8

7 .0

7.1

7.2

6.6
6.8

7 .3

4-88

7 .5

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.9

1-89

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.1

7 .8

7.7

7.6

7.7

8.3

8.1
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.6

2 -89

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.1

7.7

7.6

7 .5

7.6

8.1

8 .4

8.1

9 .3

9.0

8 .4

3-84

4-8 4

1-85

2-8 5

3-85

4-85

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-8 7

3-87

4-87

1-88
2-88

6 .7
6 .7

1-86 2-86

7.7

9.4

8 .9

7.9

9.3

8 .9

8 .3

9.7

9.4

8.1
8.8

7.8

3,3 7 6 .4
7.2

3 .4 3 5 .9

8.2

9.1

8 .4

9.0

8 .9

9.3

10.0

10.4

11.9

8 .7

9.1

9.0

9.1

6.4

3-88

4-88

1-89

1-88 2-88

3 ,5 1 1 .7
3.5 8 7 .4
3.6 8 9 .5
3 ,7 4 7 .OP

IN IT IA L QUARTER
p - Pr e l im in a r y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 27* 1989

D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnua) Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-84

4 -84

1-85

4-84

2 .5
4 .6

5 .5

2 .3

2.1

4-85

2 .7

2 .7

2.1
2.8

1-86 2-86

3-87

4-87

1-88 2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

8 .9

3-85

4-85

2.1

2-85

3-85

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

2.8

1-85

2-8 5

IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
3-86 4-86 1-87 2-8 7

2 ,4 9 6 .3
2 ,5 0 9 .4
2 ,5 6 3 .5
2 ,5 3 5 .4

-4 . 3
-

0.1

4 .4

2 ,5 6 2 .8

1-86
2-86

3 .5

3.6

4 .0

2 .4

5 .9

7.4

3 .8

4 .0

4 .4

3 .3

6.0

6.8

3-86

3.1

3 .2

3 .4

2 .3

4 .0

3.9

4-86

2 .9

3 .0

3.1

2.1

3.5

1-87

3 .0

3.1

3.2

2 .4

3.6

2.2
2.6

2.1
2.6

2.2
2.6

1.3

3-87

1.9

4-8 7

3 .0

3 .0

3.1

1-88
2-88

3.1

3.1

3 .2

3 .0

3.1

3.1

3-88

3.1

3 .2

4-88

3 .2

1-89
2-89

3-8 4

2-87

2*609.2

6.2
2.2

-1 . 7

3.3

1.9

-

3.4

2 .4

2.2

1.8

0.7

2 .7

2 .5

1.7

0.2
1.2
- 0.6
0.8

*♦5

3.3

3.1

2 .5

1.9

2 .7

3.4

3.3

2.8

2 .7

3.3

3.2

2 .7

3 .2

2.8

3.4

3.4

3.0

3 .2

3 .3

2 .9

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.4

3 .4

3 .5

3 .2

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.1

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .0

3.5

3 .5

3.2

2 .9

4 -8 4

1-85

2 -8 5

3-85

4-85

3-86

2 .6 4 8 .6
2 .6 3 7 .3
2*646.2

1.4

-

0.2

2 .6 7 2 .3

4 .0

2.7
-

1.0

2*632.5

-5 .8

1.5

1.5

0.2

6 .7

2.7

3.0

2 .7

7.2

2 .3

3.0

3.3

3.2

6.4

6.2

4 .6

2 .3

2.9

3.2

3.0

5 .3

4 .9

3 .5

2 .4

3.2

3.4

3 .3

5 .3

4 .9

3 .9

3 .6

4 .9

3.3

3.5

3.5

5.1

4 .8

4 .0

3.8

4 .6

4 .3

3.6

3.9

3.8

5 .3

5.1

4 .5

4 .5

5 .2

5 .4

6.6

3.3

3.5

3.5

4 .7

4 .4

3 .9

3 .7

4.1

3 .8

3 .6

0 .7

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-8 7

3—88

4-8 8

1-89

2.6
2.8

1-86 2-86

2*675.6
2*726.2

7.8

2*757.2
2*773.3

1-88 2-88

2*806.4
2*835.9
2*881.7

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS
AUGUST 2 7 . 1989

18

6

2*886. P

C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
5-84
4-04

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER

-

4-84

1-85

2-85

5-85

1-86

4-85

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-8 7

1-88 2-88

4-8 7

5-87

5-88

4-8 8

1-89

6.1

159.2

1-85
2-85

122.8

-2 4 .6 -5 9 .4
-1 5 .9 -2 0 .4

8.6

5-85

-

4-85

-5 .5

1-86
2—
86

124.2

4 .6

-9 . 5

10.7

-2 . 9

15.7

129.2

17.1
18.5

-1 5 .9 -1 5 .4

-

8.1

155.2

19.9

112.9

-1 1 .9 -2 5 .6 -5 1 .4

111.2

12.8 -1 5 .9

- 7 . 6 -1 0 .5 -1 8 .1 -5 2 .4

-5 .9

5-86

-9 .5

-9 . 9

- 5 .8

-5 .4 -1 0 .5 -1 8 .6

5 .4

18.0

4-86

-6 .7

-

-5 .1 -1 0 .5

9.7

18.4

-

1-87

4-87

0.8

-1 .7

18.8

121.0
151.4

5.4

5.5

1.1

-2 .5

16.4

24.9

28.5

59.1

5 .8

5 .9

4 .4

2.1

18.4

25.4

27.9

52.7

26.7

2 .5

7.8

8.2

7.1

5.4

19.9

25.9

28.0

51.2

27.4

28.1

2 .5

-0 .5

5-87

-

0.1

-2 .9

2-87

6.8

115.9

7.5

7.5

6.5

4 .9

17.1

21.5

22.2

25.1

18.1

14.1

-2 . 5

1.6
1.6

159.4
148.5
1.6

148.9
159.9

1-88
2-88

5.6

4 .4

9.2

9 .6

8 .9

7.7

19.0

25.1

25.9

25.0

21.7

20.1

16.5

55.0

4 .5

5 .5

9.9

10.4

9.8

8.8

19.0

22.5

25 .2

25.9

21.1

19.7

17.1

25 .6

18.7

5-88

5 .2

10.5

9.4

18.7

22.7

20.2

19.0

16.8

22 .5

17.5

16.0

4-88

5 .2

6.0 10.5 10.8
6.0 10.0 10.4

9.9

9.1

17.4

20.5

18.0

16.6

14.5

17.9

15.5

10.7

5 .7

1-89

4 .7

5 .5

9.0

9 .5

5 .4

0 .5

2-89

5.2

5.8

7.1

7.2

5-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

21.8 22.2
20.1 20.5

8.8 8.0 15.4
6.6 5 .7 12.2
5-85

17.5

17.4

14.9

15.4

11.1

15.9

15.5

15.0

10.4

8.6

6.0

6.8

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-8 7

8.6
2.2

15.1

1-86 2-86

4-85

17.6

166.9

-

1.6

1-88 2-88

175.2

-

175.6

6.8 -1 2 .5

5-88

175.6

-4 .5

4-8 8

-1 9 .8

16 4 .3P

1-89

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 27» 1989

H I S T O R I C A L

N A T I O N A L

E s t i m a t e s
o f

N I P A

C u r r e n t
J u l y

t a b l e s

1 9 8 6 ,

J u l y

N a t i o n a l

1 9 2 9 - 8 2 :

F o r
a n d

W e a l t h

D e p a r t m e n t




t h e

D a t a

1 9 8 7

a n d

E s t i m a t e s
I n c o m e

a n d

S t a t i s t i c a l

f u r t h e r

o f

f o r

P R O D U C T

i n

t h e

a r e

J u l y
f o r

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 8
N I P A

P r o d u c t

O F

A C C O U N T S

r e g u l a r

p u b l i s h e d

1 9 8 3 ,

a n d

S u r v e y
s e r i e s

A c c o u n t s

D A T A

q u a r t e r l y

i n

t h e

1 9 8 5

p r e s e n t a t i o n

J u l y

a r e

1 9 8 9

S u r v e y

p u b l i s h e d

o f

C u r r e n t
1 9 2 9 - 8 2

a r e

o f

t h e

B u s i n e s s ,

f o r

i n

o f

t h e

p u b l i s h e d

U n i t e d

t o

N a t i o n a l

i n

S t a t e s .

T a b l e s .

i n f o r m a t i o n

D i v i s i o n

A N D

s e r i e s

1 9 8 6 - 8 9 : 1 1

B u s i n e s s .

r e s p e c t i v e l y .
T h e

f o r
f o r

I N C O M E

S O U R C E S

( B E - 5 4 ) ,

C o m m e r c e ,

a n d

p r i c e s ,

B u r e a u

W a s h i n g t o n ,

19

o f

w r i t e

E c o n o m i c

D . C .

2 0 2 3 0 .

t h e

A n a l y s i s ,

U . S .

I n c o m e

I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY S A L E S
M A N U F A C T U R I N G AND T R A D E
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

72

72

6 8

6 8

1.64

64

1.60

60

1.56

56

1.52

52

1.48

48

1.44

44

40

40

36

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

1988 1989

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
* BEG INNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« JUNE PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

20

36


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102