Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1990
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s June 1990 T h e n a tio n ’s A c c o r d in g n e t s to c k T h e ra te d ic a t e s to a in th e th e s h a rp a g r o w th o f 1 0 to c a p it a l ra te in g r o w th 1 9 7 3 - 7 4 in c r e a s e in fr o m c a p it a l a n p e r s u c h im p o r ta n t a n d th e th e 1 9 8 0 s . th e o f T h e a s p e r s u rg e , p r ic e o f th e 1 9 8 6 o il p e rs o n g r o w th h a s h a s o il t h C a p ita l R a t e s o f p o s itiv e ly m e a s u re d b u t th e b y th a t w e ll p a s t ra te tw o T h e th e in g r o w th a ffe c te d 1 9 7 5 - 8 0 t h e R e f o r m b y o f A c t e n e r g y 1 9 8 6 in c r e a s e s C a p i t a l S t o c k a n d t h e a b y a s w a s y e a r ra te C iv ilia n L a b o r F o rc e 3 .6 a th e 1 .1 th e s u b s t it u t e d o n c a p it a l t e m p o r a r ily . th e p a s t in 1 9 7 0 s p e rc e n t p e r io d s . fo r e n e rg y - in c o m e T h u s , tw o d e s p it e s o th a t, w h ile d e c a d e s , fo r th e th e F o r c e (c a p ita l 2 .6 3 .2 in p e r 0 .9 1 .2 1 .0 2 .7 0 .5 2 .5 3 .9 p e rs o n ) 1 . 1 % 1 .6 4 .1 a t 1 9 8 0 s. b e lo w D if fe r e n c e d a ta ) 2 .8 1975-80 th e 1 9 7 0 . 1 . 6 % 1 1970-75 in t a b le w it h in S to c k o f liv in g . o f c a p it a l p e r p e r s o n , ta x e s d u r in g to c h a n g e s la b o r s lo w e d T h e g r e w 1 9 5 0 o f c o n s t a n t - d o lla r ra te p e rc e n t fo r c e fr o m g r o w th th e p e rc e n t 2 .6 la b o r ra te L a b o r 1980-86 e n d s in 2 .7 s ta n d a rd p a c e . 1 .7 1 1 P e r io d th e r a is e d p e rs o n 2 .6 1 9 5 0 -7 0 th e it s e m p lo y m e n t . fr o m s h a r p ly , r a is e d p e r a s ig n ific a n t 1986-90 1 9 7 0 -8 0 in o f m e a s u re d to la b o r p e r c e n t o f p r ic e s to c k , s lo w e d s lo w e d c a p it a l to m a s k s a p p a r e n tly th e re fo r e , 1 9 7 0 s p e rs o n 2 .5 d e c a d e s 1 9 8 1 T a x p e r it s o f c a p it a l p e r p e r s o n th e fo r c e , c a p it a l b e lo w a n d , c a p it a l in r e la te d la b o r 2 . 7 % 198 0 -9 0 p r iv a te a re 1 9 7 9 - 8 1 . it s o f th e c a p it a l in c o m e a d v e r s e ly p r o d u c t iv ity p e r c e n t in d ic a t e s g r o w th d o u b le g r o w th it s 3 .6 a s fo r d e c lin e , o f a 1 9 7 0 s , c a p it a l in b e e n (b e g in n in g th e th e p r ic e b e e n r o w fo r p e rs o n b u s in e s s th e th e fr o m d iffe r e n c e in ta x e s G P e r io d d e m a n d o il p r ic e o n s lo w e d e m p lo y m e n t , s a m e c a p it a l d e te r m in a n t o f C o m m e r c e , c a p it a l, o f p o te n tia l a b o u t R e d u c e d y e a r s is D e p a r tm e n t g r o w th b o o s t s to c k n o n r e s id e n tia l 1 9 8 0 s , c a p it a l. d e s p it e p a s t th e s im ila r F o llo w in g u s in g U . S . re tu r n p e r c e n t th e T h e th e fix e d o f th a t 1 .6 ra te to o f c a p it a l 1 .6 1 .4 2 .5 1989. — T H F E D E E R A L R E S E R V E R A N K o f S T . L O I T S V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e ce ssarily re fle c t o ffic ia l p o sition s o f th e Federal R eserve System . Jo h n A . T a to m T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 115.647 2.7 10-88 116.012 11-88 3.3 3.9 12-88 2.6 2.6 1.3 1-89 3.3 3.5 3.3 5.3 2-89 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.2 116.141 116.640 1.2 116.757 117.047 5-89 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.1 3.0 4-89 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.4 117.084 5-89 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.5 6-89 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.4 1.4 7-89 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.4 8-89 2.0 2.0 1^8 1.8 1.3 9-89 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 10-39 1.8 *‘7 1.5 1.5 11-89 1.8 1.7 1.6 12^-89 1.7 1.7 1-90' 1.6 2-90 1.6 5-90 4-90 117.132 117.542 4.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.4, , 0.0 117.436 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 1.1 1*1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 6.5 0.7 0.6 1*1 0.9 0.1 -0.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 1 .1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 -2.2 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 -1.1 1.2 117.550 117.419 117.585' 117.836 117.888 117.863 118.035 118.334 118.116 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 4. 1990 P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 6-89 7-89 5-89 10-88 3.1 11-88 3.5 4.0 12-88 3.4 3.6 3.1 1-89 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.9 2-89 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 5-89 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 4-89 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 5-89 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 6-89 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3 THOUSANDS 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1 © 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 >6 TERMINAL MONTH 2-90 3-90 106*475 106.824 107.097 107.442 107.711 107.888 2.4 108.101 108.310 108.607 7-89 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.8 8-89 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 108.767 9-89 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.3 10-89 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 11-89 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.1 12-89 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 i ! o 108.887 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.7 4.0 109.096 109.171 109.452 109.570 109.931 2-90 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.1 3-90 2.6 2.6 2.5 " 2 . 5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.6 l.l 4-90 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.7 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 110.304 110.407P 110.471P INITIAL M O N T H P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. LOUIS M A Y 4. 1990 2 EMPLOYMENT R A T I O R A T I O S C A L E M I L L I O N S OF SEA SO N A LLY P E R S O N S ADJUSTED M I L L I O N S OF S C A L E P E R S O N S SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BCG INNINC JANUARY I0$6. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt APRIL PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U NEM PL O Y M E N T RATE PERCENT S E A S O N A L L Y PERCENT A D J U S T E D Î 1 .0 10 1 0 .0 9.0 8 * 0 7.0 6 . 0 5.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LA80R FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED« APRIL PR E PARE D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . 3 LOUI S 4.0 C O N S U M E R PRICE INDEX F O R ALL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T E R MINAL M ON TH INITIAL M O N T H 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 7-89 6-89 1982-84*100 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 120.0 10-88 4.1 11-88 5.4 3.0 12-88 3.7 3.6 120.3 120.7 4.1 121.4 1-89 4.4 4.7 5.6 7.2 2-89 4.7 4.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 5-89 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.6 121.9 122.5 6.1 123.3 4-89 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.4 7.1 8.1 5-89 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.5 5.0 4-89 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.3 4.0 2.9 7-89 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.0 5.4 3.9 8-89 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.9 123.8 124.1 124.5 0.0 124.5 124.8 9-89 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.4 2.3 1.5 2.9 10-89 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.9 4.4 5.9 11-89 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 4.2 4.9 3.9 12-89 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.9 1-90 S.O 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.5 9.4 125.4 125.8 126.3 14.1 127.7 2-90 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 6.2 6.9 7.1 8.2 9.9 5.8 5-90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.6 8.5 5.8 5.8 4-90 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 128.3 128.9 129.1 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 16» 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 10-88 2.2 11-88 3.5 4.5 12-88 5.3 3.9 IN IT IA L MONTH 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 1982 « 100 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 109.3 109.7 3.5 110.0 1-89 5.9 7.1 8.5 13.9 2-89 6.3 7.3 8.5 10.8 7.8 3-89 6.1 6.9 7.6 9.0 6.7 5.5 4-89 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.7 7.0 6.6 7.7 5-89 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.7 7.5 7.3 8.3 8.8 6-89 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.4 6.2 5.7 5.8 4.9 1.1 111.2 111.9 112.4 113.1 113.9 114.0 7-89 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 4.4 3.7 3.2 1.8 -1.6 -4.1 8-89 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.9 0.5 -2.1 -3.6 -3.1 9-89 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.9 3.4 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.4 2.7 10-89 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.8 1.7 1.9 3.9 7.6 6.5 11-89 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.9 3.5 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.7 3.2 5.4 3.7 1.1 l?-89 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.4 2.6 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.3 7.6 113.6 113.3 8.8 114.1 114.7 114.8 115.5 1-90 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.3 4.9 5.5 7.2 9.4 9.5 10.5 15.6 24.1 2-90 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.8 6.1 7.7 7.5 7.8 10.1 11.4 0.0 3-90 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 5.7 4.0 5.1 6.3 5.9 5.7 6.9 6.7 -1.0 -2.0 4-90 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.2 -1.7 -2.5 -3.0 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 117.6 117.6 117.4 117.1 I N ITIAL M O N T H PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS H A Y 11. 1990 4 R A T IO SCALE 1982-100 P R I C E S SEASONALLY ADJ USTED R A T I O SCALE 1982-100 CONSUMER PR IC E S DATA ARE ON A 1982-64-100 BASE CPI-U DATA BE6INNINC 19*5 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EOUI VALENCE MEASURE FOR H0ME01NERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt APRIL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS r a t i o s c a l e 1982-100 P R O D U C E R P R I C E S SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO r a t i o s c a l e 1982-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIODS I NO I CATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTEO« APRIL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL M ONTH INIT I A L M O N T H 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 1982 « 100 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 114.8 10-88 1.1 11-88 3.2 5.4 12-88 2.8 3.7 115.3 115.5 2.1 117.0 1-89 6.1 7.9 9.2 16.7 2-89 6.8 8 .3 9.3 13.1 9.6 3-89 6.9 8.1 8.8 11.2 8.5 4-89 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.6 3.5 0.5 -5.9 5-89 5.1 5.7 6.6 4.2 2.4 0.0 6.3 6-89 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 1.9 0.0 -2.3 -0.5 7-89 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 1.9 0.4 -1.3 0.3 -2.5 2.1 1.3 -0.3 3.1 5.8 117.9 118.6 7.4 118.0 118.6 117.9 -6.9 118.1 118.5 4.1 8-89 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.2 1.0 -0.2 9-89 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 -0.8 0.2 -1.3 0.7 0.0 -4.0 118.1 2.2 4.7 5.5 6.2 17.5 119.7 3.6 5.8 6.8 7.6 14.0 10.5 7.3 10-89 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.9 11-89 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.7 4.0 120.7 12-89 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 4.6 4.4 6.4 8.1 12.4 9.9 1-90 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 6.8 6.9 9.0 10.2 11.5 15.7 15.2 17.6 26.4 9.3 10.4 11.4 14.8 14.2 15.4 18.6 11.2 11.0 9.7 9.5 9.5 2.0 -6.5 6.6 5.9 5.0 -1.3 -7.0 -7.4 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 2-90 6.3 3-90 5.6 6.7 5.8 6.7 5.9 7.1 6.1 6.4 5.4 6.1 5.1 6.0 4.9 7.3 7.4 5.9 5.9 7.4 8.1 8.7 5.2 4.5 4.1 3.9 4.7 4.6 5.8 6.3 6.5 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 4-90 4.8 5.0 5.0 8.1 9.3 121.6 124.0 125.1 124.4 123.6 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS MAY 11» 1990 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D G O O D S , E X C L U D IN G FO O D S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 10-88 2.3 11-88 3.4 4.6 12-88 3.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.7 6.9 8.0 11.7 2-89 6.4 7.4 8.4 10.4 9.2 3-89 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.4 6.8 4.5 4-89 6.8 7.6 8.2 9.1 8.3 7.9 11.4 5-89 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.6 9.1 9.0 11.4 11.3 6-89 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.5 7.9 7.5 8.6 7.2 3.3 7-89 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 5.4 4.6 4.7 2.5 -1.6 -6.2 7-89 1982 • 100 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 107.4 107.8 108.2 109.2 110.0 110.4 111.4 112.4 112.7 112.1 8-89 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 0.3 -3.2 -6.2 -6.2 9-89 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.4 3.8 14.9 10-89 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.1 1.5 1.1 3.6 8.9 3.2 11-89 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.1 3.5 3.4 2.3 0.9 0.4 2.2 5.1 0.5 -2.1 12-89 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.8 2.8 1.7 1.4 3.0 5.5 2.5 2.1 6.6 1-90 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 4.2 4.3 6.2 8.8 7.4 8.8 14.6 23.3 2-90 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.1 3.3 3.3 4.8 6.7 5.2 5.7 8.4 9.3 -3.1 3-90 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.3 3.6 2.9 2.8 4.0 5.6 4.1 4.3 6.0 5.8 -2.1 -1.0 4-90 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.2 2.5 2.5 3.5 4.7 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.0 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 111.5 112.8 113.1 112.9 113.5 115.5 115.2 115.1 115.0 IN ITIAL M O N T H PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S H A Y 11» 1990 6 I N D U S T RI A L PRODUCTION R A T I O S C A L E R A T I O î987-1 00 1982 SEASONALLY 1983 1984 1985 S C A L E î987-1 00 ADJUSTED 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt APRIL PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 1977 * 100 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 106.5 10-88 5.4 11-88 4.0 4.6 12-88 4.6 5.2 5.8 106.9 107.4 1-89 4.5 4.6 4.6 5.4 2-89 5.2 5.1 2.6 1.1 -1.1 5-89 2.8 2.7 2.5 1.1 0.0 1.1 4-89 5.9 4.0 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.7 10.5 5-89 5.0 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.6 5.4 -5.5 6-89 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 -1.1 1.1 7-89 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 -2.9 -2.7 -6.4 8-89 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 4.5 9-89 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 2.2 0.0 10-89 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.9 -0.4 -2.7 -5.4 11-89 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 107.7 107.6 107.7 108.6 108.5 108.4 107.8 108.2 108.2 107.7 108.1 4.5 12-89 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.8 1.1 1.5 5.1 1-90 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.5 - 1 .1 -1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -1.9 -0.7 108.6 2-90 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.5 -0.6 11.8 5-90 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 5.1 2.8 1.9 9.5 6.8 4-90 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.5 4.5 1.1 -4.5 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 5.7 107.5 -5.5 -11.5 108.5 109.IP 108.7P INITIAL M O N T H P- PRELI M I N A R Y PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS HA Y 15» 1990 7 PERSONAL R A T I O T R I L L I O N S 1982 INCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES S C A L E OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED D O L L A R S 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 SO U R C E t PERC EN TA G ES ARE LATEST ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO O S DATA P LO T T E D * A P R IL R A T I O T R I L L I O N S U .S . OF 1989 D EPARTM EN T S C A L E D O L L A R S 1990 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L RESERV E BANK OF ST. L O U IS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 IN IT IA L MONTH ANNUAL RATES 5-89 6-89 7-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4»180.4 10-88 19,6 11-88 7,6 -5,5 12-88 8,8 5,8 11,5 1-89 11,7 9,2 16,0 20,8 2-89 12,1 10,5 15,5 17.5 15.8 5-89 12,1 10,7 14,4 15.5 12.9 12.1 4-89 11,4 10,1 15,0 15.5 11.1 9.8 7.5 5-89 10,5 9,0 11.2 11.2 8.9 7.5 5.0 2.5 6-89 9,8 8,6 10,4 10.5 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.2 5,9 7-89 9,5 8,5 10.0 9.9 8.1 7.0 5.8 5.5 6,6 7,4 8-89 9,0 8,0 9.5 9.1 7.5 6.5 5.4 4.8 5,6 5,5 5,6 9-89 8,5 7,5 8.6 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4,9 4,6 5,2 2.8 10-89 8,5 7,7 8.7 8.4 7.2 6.5 5.6 5.2 5,8 5,7 5,2 6.0 9.5 11-89 8,7 7,9 8.9 8.7 7.6 6.9 6.5 6,1 6,7 6,9 6,7 7.8 10.4 11.6 12-89 8,6 7,8 8.7 8.5 7.5 6.8 6.5 6.1 6,6 6,7 6,6 7.4 9.0 8.8 6.1 1-90 8,7 8,0 8.9 8.7 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.6 7,1 7,5 7,5 8.0 9.4 9.4 8.4 10.7 2-90 8,7 8,1 8.9 8.7 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.9 7,4 7,6 7,6 8.5 9.4 9.4 8.7 10.1 9.4 5-90 8,8 8,2 8.9 8.8 8.0 7.5 7.2 7.1 7,6 7,8 7.9 8.5 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.9 9.6 9.7 4-90 8,5 7,9 8.6 8.5 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.8 7,2 7,4 7.4 7.9 8.6 8.5 7.9 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.7 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4.168.9 4.206.5 4.275.1 4.519.5 4.560.7 4.587.1 4.596.5 4.417.5 4.445.7 4.456.9 4.467.1 4.500.5 4.541,5 4.564,1 4.602,9 4.657.6 4.675,6 4.687.6P INITIAL M O N T H P- P RELIMINARY P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS M A Y 25. 1990 8 RETAIL SALES R A T I O R A T I O S C A L E B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS 1982 1983 SEASONALLY 1984 1985 1986 S C A L E B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt MARCH, APRIL ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL S A L E S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 140,027 10-88 29.5 11—88 20.2 11.8 12-88 15.2 5.9 1-89 11.4 6.0 5.5 6.2 2-89 7.4 2.5 -0.4 -0.9 -7.5 141»555 0.4 141»582 142»095 141 »179 141»214 5-89 6.2 2.0 -0.5 -0.5 -5.7 0.5 4-89 8.5 5.4 4.1 5.1 4.7 11.4 25.6 5-89 8.0 5.5 4.2 5.0 4.7 9.1 15.8 4.7 6-89 7.2 4.7 5.7 4.5 5.9 7.0 9.5 2.8 0.8 145*752 144»284 144*584 7-89 7.4 5.2 4.4 5.0 4.8 7.4 9.2 4.8 4.9 9.1 8-89 7.7 5.7 5.0 5.6 5.6 7.9 9.5 6.2 6.7 9.8 10.5 145»458 9-89 7.4 5.6 5.0 5.6 5.5 7.5 8.7 5.9 6.3 8.1 7.6 10-89 5.5 5.7 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.5 4.9 2.1 1.6 1.8 -0.5 11-89 5.8 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.6 4.9 5.5 3.1 2.9 5.5 1.9 -0.8 -5.6 9.4 12-89 5.1 5.5 2.9 3.1 2.9 5.9 4.4 2.2 1.8 2.0 0.6 -1.7 -5.8 2.3 -4.5 1-90 6.9 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.7 7.4 5.7 5.9 6.6 6.2 5.4 5.5 15.4 15.4 59.2 2-90 6.5 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 6.2 6.7 5.2 5.2 5.8 5.5 4.5 4.4 9.9 10.1 18.1 0.2 5-90 6.0 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.5 5.5 5.9 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.5 5.4 5.2 7.3 6.7 10.7 -1.5 -2.8 4-90 5.5 4.1 5.6 5.8 5.7 4.5 4.8 3.4 3.5 5.5 2.9 2.0 1.6 4.7 3.8 5.9 -5.5 -5.0 -7.0 9-88 10-88 11-88 12-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 146»649 147*255 4.9 145»244 -5.6 -15.1 146*540 145*804 149»877 149,904 149.547P 148»640E I N ITIAL M O N T H P- P R ELIMINARY E- E S TIMATED P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O UIS M A Y 11, 1990 H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECT O R ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1977*100 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 175.9 3-85 5.6 4-85 6.0 6.5 1-86 5.8 5.9 5.5 2-86 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 3-86 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 4-86 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.1 1-87 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.0 5.9 5.5 1.9 2-87 4.5 4.3 4.0 5.7 5.6 3.2 2.5 2.6 3-87 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.9 5.8 3.6 5.1 5.8 4-87 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.8 6.0 7.1 1-88 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 5.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 2.7 178.6 181.0 183.0 185.1 187.4 188.3 189.5 191.8 4.9 195.1 196.4 2-88 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.1 5.6 3-88 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.7 5.7 199.1 201.9 5.7 4-88 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.3 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 1-89 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 204.5 206.9 4.8 210.4 2-89 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.9 3-89 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.6 4-89 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.6 1-90 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.0 4.5 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 212.8 215.7 218.IP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 7» 1990 O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1977*100 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 108.0 3-85 5.4 4-85 2.5 1.1 1-86 4.0 4.5 7.6 2-86 2.8 2.6 5.4 -0.7 3-86 1.9 1.5 1.6 -1.5 108.5 110.5 110.1 -1.8 109.6 4-86 1.7 1.5 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.7 1-87 1.5 1.2 1.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.7 109.8 2-87 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.6 2.6 5-87 1.9 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.5 5.1 110.0 110.7 5.7 111.7 4-87 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 5.0 5.5 2.9 1-88 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 5.0 2.7 2.5 2-88 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 5-88 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 112.5 115.2 112.6 2.9 115.4 4-88 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.4 1-89 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.4 0.7 2-89 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 5-89 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 115.5 1.1 115.8 114.2 1.8 114.7 4-89 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1*2 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 1-90 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 114.8 114.6P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 7» 1990 10 P ROD UCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATION, AND SCALE C O S TS SCALE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1977-100 1982 LABOR RATIO 1983 1984 1985 1986 1977-100 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1ST QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N IT L A B O R C O S T S , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 5-85 2.7 4-85 5.7 4.7 1-86 1.8 1.4 -1.9 2-86 2.7 2.7 1.7 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1977*100 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 163.0 164.9 164.1 5.5 166.3 5-86 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.9 6.4 4-86 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.1 1-87 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.5 5.9 2.7 1.4 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.6 5.5 5.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 168.9 170.6 171.2 171.3 5-87 2.6 2.6 2.5 5.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 4-87 2.8 2.8 2.6 5.2 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.6 4.5 1-88 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 0.0 2-88 5.0 5.0 2.8 5.4 5.1 2.7 2.4 2.7 5.5 4.1 4.0 8.1 5-88 5.0 5.0 2.8 5.5 5.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.3 2.5 4-88 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.5 2.9 2.8 5.0 5.4 4.0 3.9 5.2 3.8 171.6 173.5 173.5 176.9 178.0 5.0 180.2 1-89 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.0 2.9 5.1 5.5 4.0 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.4 3.8 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 4.1 4.0 4.9 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.9 5-89 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.6 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.9 4.3 4.0 4.1 5.5 4-89 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.8 4.1 4.1 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 5.0 1-90 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.9 4.2 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.4 5.0 5.0 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 181.9 184.1 185.6 187.9 190.2P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 7» 1990 11 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rat e s of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 1-89 4-88 2-89 5-89 4-89 ANNUAL RATES 5-85 7.0 4-85 6.6 6.2 1-86 6.8 6.7 7.5 2-86 5.4 4.9 4.5 1.5 5-86 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.5 4-86 5.5 4.9 4.6 5.7 1-87 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 6.2 6.5 8.8 2-87 6.1 5 .9 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.0 8.5 8.2 5-87 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 7.0 7.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 4-87 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.6 8.5 8.7 9.0 1-88 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.2 7.5 8.2 8 .0 7.9 7.7 6.5 2-88 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.1 8.1 8 .0 7.5 8.6 5-88 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.5 4-88 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 1-89 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.7 7.9 2-89 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 5-89 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.2 4-89 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.6 1-90 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 7.0 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 4*047.0 4*107.9 4*181.5 4*194.7 5.7 4*255.5 4.2 4*297.5 4*588.8 4*475.9 4*566.6 4*665.8 4*759.8 4*858.5 4*926.9 5*017.5 5*113.1 5*201.7 5*281.0 5*340.2 5*431.4P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24* 1990 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 5-85 4.1 4-85 5.5 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5*655.8 5.0 5*662.4 1-86 4.5 4.7 6.6 2-86 2.9 2.5 2.5 -1.8 3*721.1 3*704.6 5-86 2.5 2.1 1.8 -0.5 0.8 4-86 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.6 1-87 2.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 2-87 5.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 3*712.4 2.3 5*735.6 3.8 5.4 5.2 4.0 4.9 4.4 5*785.0 5*825.5 5-87 5.5 5.2 5.2 2.7 5.6 4.5 5.0 4.8 5.5 4-87 5.6 5.6 5.7 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.6 1-88 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.0 2-88 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.9 5.7 5*872.8 5*955.6 5*974.8 4*010.7 5-88 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 5.6 5.4 5.2 4-88 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 5.4 5.2 2.9 2.7 1-89 3.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.7 4*042.7 4*069.4 4*106.8 2-89 3.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.5 5-89 3.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 4.0 3.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 2.8 5.0 4-89 5.5 5.5 3.3 5.1 5.7 5.8 3.6 5.6 5.4 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.1 1-90 5.2 5.2 3.2 5.0 5.5 5.6 3.4 5.4 5.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.5 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5.7 2-86 4*152.5 4*162.9 4*174.1 4*188.OP INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24» 1990 12 G R O S S RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 S O U R C E : P E R C E N T A G E S A R E L A T E S T P L O T T E D t D A T A A N N U A L R A T E S 1 S T O F Q U A R T E R C H A N G E FO R P E R I O D S 1988 U . S . 1989 D E P A R T M E N T 1990 O F C O M M ER C E I N D I C A T E D . P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL R ESE RVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS GENERAL PRI CE R A T I O INDEX* S C A L E R A T I O S C A L E 1982-100 1982-100 1982 «AS U SED 1983 IN N A TIO N A L 1984 1985 1986 1987 INCOME ACCOUNTS P E R C E N T A G E S A R E ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FO R P E R IO D S LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : U .S . 1989 DEPAR T M EN T 1990 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 1ST Q UARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y PR EPA R ED IM P L IC IT 1988 SO URCE» BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS P R IC E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1982 * 100 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 111.5 5-85 2.6 4—85 2.9 5.5 1-86 2.2 2.0 2-86 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.9 5-86 2.9 5.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-86 2.7 2.7 2.6 5.2 5.4 1.8 1-87 2.8 2.8 2.7 5.2 5.5 2.5 5.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.5 5.4 2.9 5.5 5.8 5-87 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.2 5.5 2.9 5.5 5.5 2.8 4-87 2.8 2.9 2.8 5.1 5.2 2.8 5.0 5.0 2.6 2.4 112.2 112.4 0.7 115.2 114.6 115.1 116.0 117.1 117.9 118.6 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.7 5.0 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 2-88 2.9 5.0 2.9 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.4 4.8 119.2 120.6 5-88 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.7 4.6 4.4 4-88 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.7 1-89 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.0 2-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 121.9 125.5 124.5 125.9 5-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.9 5.2 4-89 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 4.1 4.0 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.2 1-90 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.5 5.7 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5—86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 126.9 127.9 129.7P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRE L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A Y 24. 1990 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T E R MINAL Q U ARTER BILLIONS OF DO L L A R S ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 5-85 9.9 4—85 7.9 6.0 1-86 7.0 5.6 5 1 2-86 6.2 5.0 4 5 4.0 5-86 6.9 6.2 6 2 6.8 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 2»661.4 2*700.4 2*734.3 2*761.0 2*826.0 9.8 4-86 6.8 6.2 6 2 6.6 7.9 6.2 1-87 6.8 6.2 6 3 6.6 7.5 6.4 6.6 2-87 7.2 6.9 7 0 7.4 8.3 7.8 8.6 10.7 5-87 7.5 7.2 7 3 7.7 8.5 8.1 8.8 9.9 9.2 4-87 7.1 6.8 6 9 7.1 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.8 6.4 2*868.5 2*914.7 2*989.4 3*055.9 3*085.5 5.6 5*148.1 1-88 7.2 6.9 7 1 7.3 7.8 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 8.7 2-88 7.2 7.0 7 1 7.3 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.6 8.0 7.4 5-88 7.3 7.0 7 1 7.3 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 6.8 7.9 7.5 7.5 4-88 7.3 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 1-89 7.3 7.1 7 2 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 2-89 7.3 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.6 5-89 7.3 7.1 7 2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 4-89 7.2 7.0 7 1 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.9 7.5 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.3 4.9 1-90 7.3 7.2 7 3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 10.3 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5*204.9 5*265.4 3*324.0 3*581.4 7.1 5*444.1 5*508.1 5*550.6 3*639.OP IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24* 1990 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 5-85 6.8 4-85 4.5 1.9 1-86 4.2 3.0 4.1 2-86 4.1 3.2 3.8 5.6 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 2*575.9 2*386.9 2*410.9 2*432.4 5-86 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 4-86 4.0 3.4 3.8 5.7 3.8 2.2 1-87 3.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.1 2-87 3.6 3.1 3.3 5.2 5.1 2.5 2.4 4.8 5-87 3.7 3.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 2.9 3.2 4.8 4.7 4-87 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.0 -0.7 1-88 3.5 3.2 3.4 5.5 5.2 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.4 2.7 6.2 2-88 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 5.1 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.7 4.4 2.5 5-88 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 5.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 4.0 2.9 3.3 4-88 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 5.1 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 5.0 3.2 3.0 2*464.4 2*477.8 2*478.3 2*507.7 2*536.5 2*532.5 2*570.8 2*586.8 2*608.1 2*627.7 1-89 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 5.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2 .0 2-89 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2 .0 2*641.0 1.9 2*655.7 5-89 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 5.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 5.2 5.8 5.6 4-89 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 5.0 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 5.0 0.5 1-90 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.6 2 .5 2.6 2.8 1.5 2.4 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 2*690.1 2*695.7 2*709.6P INITIAL QUARTER P- P R E LIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S M A Y 24* 1990 15 G R O S S PRIVATE D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 5-85 -14.8 4-85 0.6 18.7 1-86 6.5 19.1 2-86 0.8 6.5 1.0 -14.7 5-86 -0.6 5.4 -1.5 -10.5 -5.7 4-86 -0.4 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 1-87 1.8 4.9 2.5 -1.6 5.2 2-87 2.4 5.1 5.0 0.0 4.1 7.6 11.2 6.7 5-87 2.7 5.1 5.5 0.9 4.5 7.0 9.1 5.9 5.2 4-87 5.7 8.5 7.1 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.6 15.5 20.1 1-88 4.1 6.2 4.9 5.2 6.1 9.7 8.5 8.8 10.7 -10.7 2-88 4.7 6.7 5.5 4.1 6.7 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.8 -0.5 11.2 5-88 5.5 7.2 6.2 4.9 7.4 9.1 10.4 9.5 10.1 11.5 5.8 11.9 12.7 4-88 4.2 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 0.4 4.4 1.2 -9.2 1-89 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.9 7.0 7.5 2.1 5.6 5.8 -0.4 9.2 2-89 4.4 5.8 5.0 5.9 5.6 6.7 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 2.2 5.0 5.6 0.7 6.0 2.8 6.4 2-89 5-89 4-89 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 626.7 654.1 19.4 685.8 657.2 5-89 4.5 5.6 4.8 5.8 5.4 4-89 5.8 5.0 4.2 5.2 4.6 1-90 5.0 4.1 5.5 2.4 5.6 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 647.7 0.7 648.8 15.8 675.1 684.1 692.8 57.1 749.7 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 769.6 775.0 6.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 2.2 4.5 5.5 1.0 4.7 2.5 2.1 5.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 1.4 5.2 1.9 -0.1 2.5 0.1 -1.5 -4.5 4.5 4.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 0.1 1.5 0.2 -1.7 -0.2 -2.4 -4.1 -7.1 -9.5 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 779.1 770.1 751.IP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24. 1990 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 5-85 5-85 -17.0 4-85 0.2 20.8 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 618.1 648.0 1-86 5.9 19.6 18.5 676.1 2-86 -0.8 5.5 -1.8 -18.5 642.5 5-86 -2.8 1.1 -4.7 -14.5 -10.5 4-86 -5.4 -0.4 1-87 -0.1 5.0 2-87 0.7 5-87 625.1 -5.1 -11.8 -8.5 -6.2 -0.2 -4.4 0.8 6.9 21.8 5.5 0.9 -2.5 2.2 6.8 15.9 6.6 1.6 4.2 2.1 -0.4 5.6 7.5 12.4 8.0 9.5 4-87 4.4 7.1 5.5 5.8 8.0 12.1 17.2 15.7 20.6 52.8 1-88 5.2 5.5 5.9 2.5 5.6 8.6 11.8 9.4 10.5 10.8 -7.6 2-88 5.5 5.4 5.9 2.4 5.4 7.9 10.4 8.2 8.6 8.4 -2.1 5-88 5.9 5.9 4.6 5.5 6.1 8.5 10.6 8.8 9.5 9.2 4-88 2.6 4.5 5.0 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 5.4 5.5 4.4 1-89 2.9 4.5 5.5 2.2 4.5 5.9 7.5 5.6 5.5 2-89 2.7 4.1 5.0 1.9 5.9 5.5 6.5 4.9 5-89 2.7 4.1 5.0 2.0 5.8 5.0 6.1 4-89 2.5 5.6 2.6 1.6 5.2 4.5 1-90 1.7 2.9 1.9 0.9 2.4 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 615.2 646.5 656.7 671.7 721.1 707.0 5.7 715.5 755.6 7.7 11.8 -1.7 0.4 -1.2 -12.7 4.8 0.0 2.0 1.4 -5.4 6.9 4.7 4.0 -0.1 1.4 0.9 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 4.7 4.5 5.9 0.5 1.7 1.2 -1.2 2.9 1.0 2.7 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.0 -0.5 0.8 0.4 -1.8 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -4.0 5.4 4.1 2.8 2.5 1.8 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -2.9 -0.8 -2.6 -5.5 -6.1 -8.2 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 709.1 721.1 719.8 724.6 717.5 702.IP INITIAL Q U A R T E R P- P R E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 5-85 IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-85 20.6 4-85 14.2 8.1 1-86 8.2 2.4 -5.0 2-86 8.4 4.6 5.0 9.2 5-86 7.8 4.8 5.7 7.2 5.2 4-86 7.1 4.6 5.8 6.1 4.6 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-89 4-89 840.2 856.7 850.5 869.5 880.5 888.9 4.0 906.9 1-87 7.5 5.2 4.7 6.7 5.8 6.1 8.3 2-87 6.9 5.1 4.6 6.2 5.5 5.6 6.4 4.4 5-87 7.0 5.4 5.0 6.4 5.8 6.0 6.7 5.9 4-87 6.9 5.5 5.2 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.0 6.8 6.5 1-88 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.5 4.2 2.7 -0.8 2-88 6.2 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.7 4.7 5.9 2.7 6.2 5-88 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.6 2.7 1.6 2.7 -0.6 4-88 6.9 5.9 5.7 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.7 9.4 11.0 25.9 916.8 7.5 955.2 947.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 1,016.0 1-89 6.5 5.6 5.4 6.1 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 7.4 7.8 12.5 1.8 2-89 6.5 5.7 5.5 6.2 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.5 7.6 10.5 4.4 6.9 5-89 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.5 6.5 8.4 5.6 4.6 2.2 4-89 6.4 5.6 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.6 6.7 8.2 4.6 5.6 4.9 7.7 1-90 6.5 5.8 5.6 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.1 8.4 5.6 6.5 6.4 8.5 9.5 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 l.r»35.2 1.038.9 1.058.5 1 ,0 8 2.IP IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24, 1990 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 2-85 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 3-85 19.8 4-85 10.3 1.6 1-86 5.1 -1.5 -4.5 2-86 6.2 2.0 2.3 9.5 5-86 5.4 2.1 2.2 5.8 2.1 4-86 5.4 2.8 3.1 5.8 5.9 5.8 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 749.8 752.7 744.1 761.2 765.2 1-87 4.7 2.4 2.5 4.4 2.7 5.0 2-87 4.0 1.5 2.0 3.5 1.8 1.7 5-87 4.0 2.2 2.5 3.5 2.3 2.4 4-87 4.1 2.5 2.6 5.6 2.7 2.8 1-88 2.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.9 2-88 5.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.4 1.5 3-88 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 4-88 5.4 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.3 1-89 5.0 1.9 1.9 2.4 2-89 5.1 2.1 2.1 2.7 776.0 0.5 776.6 -0.9 774.9 1.8 4.5 2.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -2.1 -8.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 -6.1 -2.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 -2.7 0.2 -3.6 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.8 5.4 6.1 16.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.8 3.2 2.9 6.2 -5.5 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 3.6 3.5 6.0 1.0 1.5 785.5 792.1 775.1 785.0 775.9 806.4 799.7 5.4 810.5 5-89 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 2.6 2.5 5.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.4 4-89 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.6 2.5 5.5 0.5 1.8 0.0 2.6 1-90 2.8 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 5.5 1.0 2.1 1.1 2.9 5.1 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 805.5 810.4 8 1 6 .7P INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24, 1990 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T E R MINAL QUARTER 2-85 5-85 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 -1.5 5-88 2-88 1-88 4-87 5.5 8.6 1-86 5.1 8.6 2-86 5.5 7.9 7.5 6.5 5-86 4.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 4.9 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 5.5 1-87 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.1 8.0 10.8 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 5.0 4.9 -0.6 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.6 7.0 5.2 11.5 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.7 8.4 7.6 11.9 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.4 10.5 9.7 2-88 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.6 8.0 7.4 9.5 8.9 7.1 7.2 5-88 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.1 7.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 8.2 9.1 6.8 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 7.9 9.5 8.9 8.4 9.0 8.9 7.7 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.7 9.4 8.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 4.9 5-87 5.6 4-87 1-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 2,899.5 4-85 2-87 4-88 2.840.0 8.5 2,959.2 5,006.5 5,024.5 5,065.4 5,142.8 5,158.1 5,225.5 5,519.4 12.4 5,576.4 7.0 5,455.9 5,511.7 5,587.4 11.9 5,689.5 1-89 7.1 7.8 7.6 7.7 2-89 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.1 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 6.5 5-89 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.0 9.0 8.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 6.5 6.5 4-89 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.1 7.9 8 .8 8.5 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.1 7.9 6.6 6.7 7.0 1-90 7.2 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.1 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 7.5 7.8 8.5 10.1 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 4-87 5,747.7 5,806.8 5,871.5 5,965.7P IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24. 1990 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN 1982 D O L L A R S (C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a t e s o f C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 2,555.4 5-85 -4.5 4-85 -0.1 4.4 2,562.8 2,609.2 1-86 2.4 5.9 7.4 2-86 5.5 6.0 6.8 6.2 2,648.6 5-86 2.5 4.0 5.9 2.2 2,657.5 4-86 2.1 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 1.4 1-87 2.4 5.6 5.4 2.4 1.2 2.7 4.0 2-87 1.5 2.2 1.8 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -5.8 5-87 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.2 6.7 4-87 2.5 5.5 5.1 2.5 1.9 2.7 5.0 2.7 7.2 7.8 1-88 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.8 2.5 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.4 6.2 4.6 2-88 2.7 5.5 5.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.5 2.4 2,646.2 2,672.5 2,652.5 2,675.6 2,726.2 2,757.2 2,775.5 5-88 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.9 4-88 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.0 5.8 4.6 4.5 1-89 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 5,9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.2 5.4 2,806.4 2,855.9 2,881.7 6.6 2-89 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.2 2.9 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.8 4.1 5.9 5.7 0.8 5-89 5.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 5.9 2.6 4.4 4-89 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 2.6 5.4 2.4 1-90 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1 2.9 5.5 5.4 5.4 4.5 4.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 2.5 5.0 2.5 2.2 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 2*887.6 2,919.2 2,956.9 2,9 5 5.OP INITIAL Q U A R T E R PR E L I M I N A R Y P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S M A Y 24, 1990 18 C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 5-85 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 4-85 2-86 5-86 1-87 4-86 2-87 5-87 17.1 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 B I L L I O N S OF ,D O L L A R S ANNUAL RATES 4-89 129.2 18.5 155.2 19.9 112.9 1-86 -11.9 -25.6 -51.4 2-86 -10.5 -18.1 -52.4 -5.9 5-86 -5.4 -10.5 -18.6 5.4 18.0 4-86 -1.7 -5.1 -10.5 9.7 18.4 111.2 115.9 121.0 18.8 151.4 1-87 5.5 1.1 -2.5 16.4 24.9 28.5 59.1 2-87 5.9 4.4 2.1 18.4 25.4 27.9 52.7 26.7 5-87 8.2 7.1 5.4 19.9 25.9 28.0 51.2 27.4 28.1 4-87 7.5 6.5 4.9 17.1 21.5 22.2 25.1 18.1 14.1 1-88 9.6 8.9 7.7 19.0 25.1 25.9 25.0 21.7 20.1 16.5 55.0 2-88 10.4 9.8 8.8 19.0 22.5 25.2 25.9 21.1 19.7 17.1 25.6 18.7 5-88 10.8 10.5 9.4 18.7 21.8 22.2 22.7 20.2 19.0 16.8 22.5 17.5 16.0 4-88 10.4 9.9 9.1 17.4 20.1 20.5 20.5 18.0 16.6 14.5 17.9 15.5 10.7 1-89 9.5 8.8 8.0 15.4 17.6 17.5 17.4 14.9 15.4 11.1 15.1 8.6 5.4 2-89 6.7 6.1 5.1 11.6 15.2 12.7 12.1 9.5 7.5 4.8 5.4 0.6 -5.5 159.4 148.5 148.9 1.6 159.9 166.9 175.2 175.6 5.7 -4.5 175.6 -9.2 -15.8 -25.8 161.1 0.5 152.4 5-89 4.9 4.2 5.2 8.9 10.2 9.6 8.8 6.1 4.0 1.4 1.5 -5.2 -7.0 -12.0 -17.2 -22.9 -19.9 4-89 5.5 4.6 5.8 9.1 10.5 9.7 9.0 6.6 4.8 2.5 2.6 -1.1 -4.1 -7.7 -10.8 -12.8 -5.4 11.8 1-90 5.1 4.4 5.6 8.6 9.6 9.1 8.5 6.1 4.4 2.5 2.4 -0.9 -5.4 -6.5 -8.6 -9.6 -5.4 6.1 0.8 2-85 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 156.7 157.OP IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MAY 24» 1990 H IS T O N A T IO N A L E s t i m o f C u r r e n t J u N I P A l y a t e s t a b B u l e s s i n 1 9 8 6 , J u N a t i o n 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : l y F o r a n d W e a l t h D e p a r t m e n t f e a t a e r n C o m m r i n a r e 1 9 8 3 , J u l y f o r I P A P r o d u c t O F P R O D U C T t h e r e g A C C O U N T S u l a r p u b l i s h e d 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 8 N S O U R C E S a n d S u r v e y s e r i e s A c c o u n t s q i n u a r t e r l y t h e 1 9 8 5 D A T A J u a r e p o f C f o r 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 u r r e n t o f t h e w r i t e U n p l y r e s e n 1 9 8 9 u b l i s h e d B u s i n a r e i t e d t a t i o n S u r v e y i n o f t h e e s s , p u b l i s h e d i n S t a t e s . T a b l e s . i n f o r m i v i s i o f o a n d l A N D s e r i e s a t e s a n d t i s t i c a r t h D o D 1 9 8 7 In c o m t a f u t h e IN C O M E 1 9 8 6 - 8 9 : 1 1 E s t i m a l S r r e s s . r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e f o f o R IC A L a t i o n ( B E - 5 4 ) , e r c e , W a n d p r i c e s , B u r e a u a s h i n g t o n , o f E c o n o m D . C . 19 ic 2 0 2 3 0 . t o A t h e N n a l y s i s , a t i o n U . S . a l In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES MA NUFACTURING AND TRADE .72 . 6 8 \ .6 4 .6 0 .5 6 .5 2 .4 8 .4 4 .4 0 .3 6 1976 1977 19 7 8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 19 8 7 1988 19 8 9 1990 SOURCES U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE "BEGINNING IN 1082, INVENTORY OATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« MARCH PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FED ER AL R ES ER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS
@FedFRASER