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M a y 1998

tional EcànôrtiicTrends

Payroll Jobs and GDP
“T he E m p loym en t S itu ation ,” norm ally reported
by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics (B L S ) on the first
Friday o f each m onth, is on e o f the m ost im portant
data releases. It con tain s results from tw o surveys,
the Current P opulation S u rvey (h ou seh o ld su rvey)
and Current E m p loym en t Statistics (establishm ent
su rvey). W hen this report is released, how ever, w hy
do the hea d lin es trum pet n ew s about the u n em p loy­
m ent rate, w h ile the fin an cial m arkets m o v e in
resp on se to payroll job s?
T he h o u seh o ld survey provid es the inform ation
u sed to calcu late the u n em p loym ent rate. There are
n ow about 100 m illion households in the United States.
T he Labor D epartm ent su rveys about 5 0 ,0 0 0 each
m onth, 1 /2 0 th o f on e percent o f the total. T he estab­
lish m en t su rvey gathers inform ation about the num ­
ber o f p eo p le on payrolls at about 3 9 0 ,0 0 0 bu sin ess
estab lish m en ts, w h ich accou nt for about 45 percent
o f total payroll em ploym ent. A single firm like General
M otors has establishm ents in many locations. B ecause
the establishm ent survey is m uch larger than the house­
hold survey, it g iv e s a m ore reliable m on th -to -m on th
reading on jo b s in the eco n o m y (see the com parison
o f jo b s data in the top panel on page 10).
T he general p u b lic— and, therefore, the n ew s
m edia— tends to em p h a size the h ou seh old survey
b ecau se it co n ta in s inform ation about unem ploym ent,
an im portant g a u g e o f the n a tio n ’s e c o n o m ic health.
T he u n em p lo y m en t statistics are, in a sen se, a final
product. S o m e legisla tio n d efin es e c o n o m ic o b jec­
tiv e s in term s o f u n em p loym ent. Popular m easures
such as the “ m isery in d ex ” sum up the u n em p lo y ­
m ent rate and the inflation rate.
E co n o m ic forecasters and financial market partici­
pants usu ally are m ore interested in n ew s about pay­
roll em p lo y m en t than they are in the un em ploym ent
rate. There are several reasons for this. First, as noted
ab ove, the estab lish m en t survey has a larger sam ple

size— and therefore, greater accuracy— than the house­
hold survey. S econ d , the u nem ploym ent rate tends to
lag in the b u sin ess cy c le , so there is little or no new
inform ation in the unem p loym en t rate about future
ec o n o m ic activity. Third, because payroll em ploym ent
is a major input to the production process, it is concep­
tually closer to a m easure o f eco n o m ic output. This
can be seen in the chart, w h ich plots grow th in pay­
roll em p loym en t and real G ross D om estic Product
(G D P). A s the chart sh o w s, there is a c lo se co n n ec­
tion betw een fluctuations in jo b s and GDP.
Finally, the payroll em p loym en t statistics are co in ­
cident w ith GDP, but they are reported m uch earlier.
On April 3, B L S reported the labor data for March.
A lthough the March num ber w as dow n slightly, pay­
roll em ploym ent for the entire first quarter rose at an
annual rate o f 3.1 percent over the fourth quarter o f
1997. This rapid em ploym ent growth has led forecast­
ers to raise their projections for GDP. For exam ple, in
January the Blue Chip survey o f econom ic forecasters
reported a consensus real G D P growth rate for the first
quarter o f 2.4 percent. By April, they had raised the
forecast to 3 percent.
-W illia m T. Gavin

Real GDP and Payroll Jobs
Quarterly Data, Percent Change from a Year Ago
Percent

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



Tabi b o fCon ten ts
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1.

Charts and tables contain data that were current on May 1, 1998.

2.

Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

3.

Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter f is:

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4.

All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.




National EconomicTrenas

Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price index

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change
0.5 - ............- ................

0.4 -

“ 1 1....................... 1
........................1
....................... 1
...............
1995

1996

1997

1995

1998

Industrial Production

1997

1998

Interest Rates

Percent change

1996

Percent
8 - ......

1.8

-

...................................................

.II

1

1

In niLili

n

1

1

II

_ 0 6 1....................... 1
........................1
....................... 1
...............
1995

1996

1997

4 1....................... 1
....................... 1
....................... 1
...............

1998

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

1995

1996

1997

1998

Unemployment Rate

Thousands
600 - .......................................

Percent of labor force
6.0

-

40 1....................... 1
....................... 1
....................... 1
...............
1995




1996

1997

1998

1995

1996

1997

1998

3

National Economic Trends

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago
10 - ...
................-........

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago
18 -

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
12...

i

76

77

r . . . .I. . . I .f
78

79

8

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP


4


' I
"

"

"

i . . . .r .i . . . .I“ . T.I. . . .r
“

“

“

National EconomicTrends

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Percent change at annual rate
6 - ....
GDP (bar)

8 -1 —

Percent change at annual rate
Final
Sales

Advance

Preliminary
Annual Revision

Y//////A Final
64

1996

1997

1998

97:1

Index
- 68

Percent change
-

1.2

-

97:3

97:4

98:1

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and NAPM Index
1.8

97:2

....................................

Percent change at annual rate
10 - .....................................................

Indus^ria^ Production
- 62

NAPM

iyye

1997

1998

1996

1997

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change

1998

Hours
35.0 —

-2

1996

1997

[

1998

33.5 T

1996

Real Change In Business Inventories

1998

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Billions of 1992 dollars
80 - ...... ....................

1997

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 - ..............................

1996



1997

1998

1.31 i

1996

1997

1998

5

tiationaîEconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
1 0 - f — ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

96Q2

96Q3

96Q4

9701

R 8 S Consumption
I

97Q2

Exports
Inventories

97Q3

Y/ V / A

V //A

97Q4

Government

98Q1

-------- Real GDP

Investment

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1997

1996
2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd
3rd

4th

1998
1st

Real GDP

5.97

1.03

4.31

4.89

3.31

3.07

3.71

4.24

Final Sales

5.22

0.16

4.49

3.02

2.48

4.69

2.28

4.03

Change in Inventory

0.78

0.96

- 0 .2 9

1.76

0.79

-1 .6 7

1.48

0.16

Consumption

2.53

0.35

2.22

3.56

0.64

3.78

,.6 7

3.82

Fixed investment
Nonresidential
Residential

2.02

1.46

0.45

0.59

1.84

2.13

0.29

2.65

1.34

1.72

0.66

0.47

1.59

2.1 1

- 0 .1 0

1.99

0.66

- 0 .1 8

- 0 .1 7

0.13

0.28

0.10

0.34

0.65

Government
Federal
State and Local

1.29

- 0 .2 0

0.02

- 0 .0 8

0.54

0.19

0.05

-0 .3 5

0.58

- 0 .2 9

- 0 .3 5

- 0 .3 8

0.41

-0 .0 7

- 0 .1 5

-0 .5 4

0.71

0.08

0.37

0.31

0.13

0.26

0.20

0.19

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-0 .6 9

-1 .5 1

1.93

- 1 .1 8

-0 .5 8

- 1 .5 3

0.27

-2 .2 1

1.13

0.23

2.89

1.24

2.26

0.59

1.09

-0 .4 7

-1 .8 1

-1 .7 3

- 0 .9 4

- 2 .3 9

-2 .8 0

-2 .1 1

-0 .8 1

-1 .7 5

Residual

-0 .0 3

-0 .0 8

- 0 .1 0

0.20

0.02

0.14

- 0 .0 4

0.19


6


National EconomicTrends

» i— r
73

74

.— i
i
i
i
i... i ... i......i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i n— i
i
i
r
i
i
i—
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Percent
7.5 - ....
7.0 -

Apr 97

6.5 6.0

-

Week Ending: 04/24/98,
5.5 -

Apr 98

5.0 4.5 4.0 -

3m

1y

2y

5y

7y

10y

30y

Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago




7

National EconomicTrends

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago
12 - ......
10 -

/

80

f
/

¡Siili
dpi

2
0 I

v •

.
I

73

1
------ 1
------ 1----- 1
------ 1----- 1
-

■■■
■■'
■]
74

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago
15 - ......
A

129
6- J

/
/
/

/

3-r-1
On----73

74

75

76

77

78

1—

79

r* I
i r
80 81 82

83

84

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago




85

86

1— I— I
r~ “ r
87 88 89 90 91

92

93

1

94

r

95

96

97

NationaìEconomicTrends

Crude Oil Price
Percent change at annual rate

Dollars per barrel

4 - ......................................— ..........

28 - .........................

3-

121

1993

1

1994

1

1995

1

1996

Consumer Price Index

Consumption Chain Price Index

Percent change

Percent change at annual rate

0.5 - ......................................

Producer Price index, Finished Goods

Unit Labor Cost

Percent change

Percent change at annual rate
Nonfarm

- 0 . 7 5 - ,................— ...............T
....................................... T
.........................
1996
'
1997
'
1998

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Percent change from year ago
8 - ...........................................

Percent change at annual rate
6 - ..........................................




1 1997

1

1998

!

National EconomicTrends

Employment
Percent change from year ago
8

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and E m p lo p e n t Rates
Percent of labor force
15 -

Percent of population

Labor Force/Population
(— ►)

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50

Weeks
16

3.75

14

3.00

12

2.25

10

1.50

8

0.75

6

0.00

4


10


National EconomicTrends

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands
600 - ........................................

Thousands
60 - ............ .............-.......................

- 60 1.............................T
..............................I..................
1996

1997

1996

1998

1997

1998

Change in Household Employment
Percent change from year ago

Thousands
825 - ...................................................

2.5 - .............................v...................

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Help-Wanted Advertising

Unemployment Rate
Percent

Index

6.0

95 - ..................................................................................................................- 8.0

-

Percent

40 1........... ..................I..............................I..................
1996




1997

1998

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

11

National EconomicTrends

Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data
12 - .....
8
4
0
-4

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago

Percent change from year ago
12
8

8

4

0

0

-8

-4

-16

-8

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average
16

Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent


12


Percent

National EconomicTrends

Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate

Percent change

Percent
8 - .......

i li

1

il. hiln
l
1

0.00

-1 .0 0 T

1996

Æ

m

1997

2 l 1993 1 1994 1 1995 1 1996 T 1997 1 1998 '

1998

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Percent change
8 - .........................

1.6

Percent change
-

..................................................

1.2 -

-

1996

1997

1998

0.8

1996

f

1997

T

1998

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change
2.25 -

Percent change

Millions of vehicles, annual rate
Autos and light trucks

¡i\ i.iJ
1
-6 t

Vilil
jl

Durables

.................. i............................ i............................ r 13-i>
1996
1
1997
1998

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Index

Percent change
20 - .................

120

—

•




■10 -j............................ i............................ j..................
1996
1997
1998

13

NationaìEconomicTrends

Real Investment
Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment
Forcent change from year ago

Real Nonresidents and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago


14


National EconomicTrends

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP
— 10
-

8

—

6

-

4

-

2

—

0

------ 2

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Forcent change at annual rate

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft

18 - ................................................

30-

■20 -j.............. I............... j............... I............... I............... ]............
1996

1997

1993

1998

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Real Nonresidential Investment

Real Equipment Investment
Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate

30 - ........... ..................... ;................

20

1996

1997

-

1998

........................................................................

1996

1997

1998

1997

1998

Real Residential Investment
Percent change at annual rate
20 - ..........................................

-2 0 T
1996




Millions, annual
1.7 - ....................

1997

1.3 T
1998

1996

15

National EconomicTrends

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400

Percent of GDP
35

1200

1000

800

600

400

G o v e rn m e n t B u d g e ts
Billions of dollars

Unified Budget

National Income Accounts

Fiscal Years

Calendar Years

Receipts

Federal

Federal

State and Local
Surplus or
Expenditures Deficit)-)

Surplus or
Expenditurest!-)
Défici

Receipts

O
Receipts utlays

Surplus or
Delicit(-)

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

225.6

198.0

27.6

297.4

371.3

-7 3 .9

279.1

332.3

-5 3 .2

253.9

217.9

36.0

400.3

-5 7 .2

298.1

371.8

-7 3 .7

281.9

237.1

44.8

343.1
389.6

435.9

- 4 6 .3

355.6

409.2

-5 3 .7

309.3

256.7

52.6

446.5

478.1

-3 1 .6

399.6

458.7

-5 9 .2

330.6

278.3

52.3

51 1.1

529.5

- 1 8 .4

463.3

504.0

-4 0 .7

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

361.4

307.0

54.4

561.5

622.5

-6 1 .0

517.1

590.9

-7 3 .8

390.8

335.4

55.4

649.3

707.1

-5 7 .8

599.3

678.2

-7 9 .0

409.0

357.7

51.3

646.4

781.0

-1 3 4 .6

617.8

• 745.8

-1 2 8 .0

443.6

378.8

64.8

671.9

846.3

-1 7 4 .4

600.6

8 08.4

-2 0 7 .8

492.0

405.1

86.9

746.9

902.9

-1 5 6 .0

666.5

851.9

- 1 8 5 .4
-2 1 2 .3

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

528.7

437.8

90.9

81 1.3

974.2

-1 6 2 .9

734.1

9 46.4

570.6

475.7

94.9

850.1

1027.6

-1 7 7 .5

769.2

990.5

-2 2 1 .2

594.9

51 1.1

83.8

937.4

1066.3

- 1 2 8 .9

8 54.4

1004.1

-1 4 9 .8

631.4

545.5

85.9

997.2

909.3

585.9

95.1

1079.3

1 1 18.5
1 192.7

-1 2 1 .3

681.0

-1 13.4

991.2

1064.5
1 143.7

-1 5 5 .2
-1 5 2 .5

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

728.9

648.8

80.1

1 129.8

1284.5

-1 5 4 .7

1032.0

784.2

7 08.4

75.8

1 149.0

1345.0

- 1 9 6 .0

1055.0

1253.2
1324.4

-2 2 1 .2
- 2 6 9 .4

844.3
894.4

758.0
807.0

86.3
87.4

1 198.5
1275.1

1479.4
1525.7

-2 8 0 .9
-2 5 0 .6

1091.3
1 154.4

1381.7
1409.4

- 2 9 0 .4
-2 5 5 .0

949.2

852.3

96.9

1374.8

1561.4

-1 8 6 .6

1258.6

1461.7

-2 0 3 .1

1995
1996
1997

999.0

895.9

1463.2
1587.6

- 1 7 4 .4

1351.8

1515.7

- 1 6 3 .9

938.0

103.1
105.4

1637.6

1043.4

1698.1

-1 10.5

1453.1

1560.5

-1 0 7 .5

1090.4

982.6

107.8

1723.4

1752.2

-2 8 .8

1579.3

1601.2

- 2 1 .9


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends

Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP
6

60
4

50
40

2

30

Change in Federal Debt

Federal Deficit Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

Billions of dollars, fiscal years
500

8

-250
74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Federal Government Debt
Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year,
excluding agency-issued debt
Hldb
e y
T ta
ol
A e cie
gn s
P b Db
u lic e t
a dT sts
n ru

Held by Public
T ta
ol

Fd ra
ee l
Rs rv B n s
ee e a k

Held by Private Investors
T ta
ol

F re na d
o ig n
In rn tio a
te a n l
5 9 1 .3

1993

4411.5

1116.7

3294.8

325.7

29 8 3 .0

1994

4692.8

1213.1

3479.7

355.2

3 127.8

655.8

1995

4974.0

1320.8

3653.2

374.1

3 279.5

8 4 8 .4

1996

5224.8

1447.0

3777.8

390.9

3 386.2

1026.1

1997

5413.1

1598.5

3814.7

436.5

3388.9

1266.8

1995

4864.1

1254.7

3609.5

369.3

3239.2

729.2

4951.4

1316.6

3634.8

389.0

3 245.0

784.2

Septem ber

4974.0

1320.8

3653.2

374.1

32 7 9 .5

8 48.4

December
1996

March
June

4988.7

1304.5

3684.2

391.0

3294.9

862.2
936.6

51 17.8

1353.8

3764.0

381.0

3 382.8

5161.1

1422.4

3738.6

391.0

3 347.3

960.3

Septem ber

5224.8

1447.0

3777.8

390.9

3 386.2

1026.1

December
1997

March
June

5323.2

1497.2

3826.0

410.9

341 1.2

1 135.6

March

5380.9

1506.8

3874.1

405.6

3 451.7

1 192.0

June

5376.2

1571.6

3804.6

426.4

3 361.7

1221.7

Septem ber

5413.1

1598.5

3814.7

436.5

3388.9

1266.8

December

5502.4

1655.7

3846.7

451.9

33 9 3 .4

1278.2




17

National Economicïïends

Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars
10

-1 0

»

-2 0

-3 0

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
Yen/US$
- 450

Index, March 1973 = 100

160

- 375

140

- 300

120

- 225

100

- 150

80

Goods Export Shares, 1997

Goods Import Shares, 1997
All Other
36.65%

All Other
32.29%
Mexico
Mexico

Canada
22.33%


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Other OECD
13.84%

Japan
9.68%

Germany
3.61%

5.37%

Other OECD
9.59%

Canada
19.16%

Japan
13.83%

3.72%

National EconomicTrends

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
20

llllFGoods l l l Services!l
n i l and l l l l l
I 2 11
-5

-10 -

-

...................................................................................

I

I

l

l

i

l

-1 5 -

Goods

-2 0

1997

1996

-5
1998

1996

Current Account Balance

1998

1997

1998

Services Trade

Billions of dollars
0

1997

Percent change from year ago

1995

20

1996

1997

- ....................... ......... ...............................- .......

1996

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
Percent change at annual rate




United Kingdom

19

HationalEconomicTrends

Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago

Percent
.................................................. -

90

Utilization
(— ►)

60
Nonfarm Output/Hr

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

10

Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5

2.5

0.0

-2.5

-5.0

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
20
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Percent change at annual rate
5 - ...........................................

Percent change at annual rate
10 - ....................................................................................................

-5

-2
1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent

Percent

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago
80 -

mmm

Nonfinancial

-2 0

-

-4 0 !

72

I

73

I

74

I

75




I.......I.......I.......I.......Î ...... I.... T .....I...... Î...... I....... I...... I....... I...... r ~ ï ... “ f ......I.......I.......I.......T
...... 1
....... 1
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

21

National EconomìcTrends
Real GDP

Nominal GDP

Rnal Sales

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Change in
Business Inventories

Billions
of $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Percent chanae
Annual Year
ago
rate

6558.1

5.0

6389.563

2.3

6368.864

2.1

7.001

6947.0

5.9

6610.741

3.5

6551.247

2.9

22.102

Billions
of 1992 $

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago

7265 .4

4.6

6742.062

2.0

6712.672

2.5

60.552

763 6.0

5.1

6928.396

2.8

6900.980

2.8

27.341

8079.9

5.8

7188.820

3.8

7 118.324

3.1

25.038

1995 1
2
3
4

7 168.9

4.2

5.5

6703.721

0.9

2.7

6654.289

1.8

2.8

48.479

53.061

7 209.5

2.3

4.3

6708.841

0.3

1.6

6685.289

1.9

2.4

21.638

75.896

7 301.3

5.2

4.5

6759.234

3.0

2.0

6739.306

3.3

2.4

17.023

49.662

7381.9

4.5

4.0

6796.513

2.2

1.6

6771.927

2.0

2.2

22.223

63.590

1996 1
2
3
4

7467.5

4.7

4.2

6826.362

1.8

1.8

6814.966

2.6

2.4

8.039

48.479

7607.7

7.7

5.5

6926.023

6.0

3.2

6902.290

5.2

3.2

21.288

21.638

7676.0

3.6

5.1

6943.820

1.0

2.7

6905.034

0.2

2.5

37.903

17.023

7792.9

6.2

5.6

7017.379

4.3

3.2

6981.692

4.5

3.1

32.922

22.223

1997 1
2
3
4

7933.6

7.4

6.2

7101.617

4.9

4.0

7034.087

3.0

3.2

63.657

8.039

8034.3

5.2

5.6

7159.627

3.3

3.4

7077.749

2.5

2.5

77.603

21.288

8124.3

4.6

5.8

7214.017

3.1

3.9

71 60.333

4.7

3.7

47.539

37.903

8 227.4

5.2

5.6

7280.020

3.7

3.7

7201.126

2.3

3.1

74.049

32.922

1998

8 332.2

5.2

5.0

7356.015

4.2

3.6

7273.418

4.1

3.4

77.044

63.657

1

Durables Consumption

Consumption
Billions
of 1992 $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995

1
2
3
4

1996 1
2
3
4

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

4343.5 63
4485.981

Private Fixed Investment

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

2.9

523.841

3.3

561.189

4595.2 73

2.4

4714.061

2.6

4867.461

Nonresidential Investment

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago

7.2

842.772

7.6

600.167

7.6

7.1

915.536

8.6

648.361

8.0

583.598

4.0

962.1 19

5.1

706.513

9.0

611.107

4.7

1041.699

8.3

771.683

9.2

5.6

1 123.564

7.9

8 48.268

9.9

3.3

645.548

4551.3 03

1.5

2.5

572.230

- 3 .0

3.9

955.820

7.6

7.7

695.674

14.2

1 1.1

4583.4 58

2.9

2.5

577.706

3.9

3.9

954.034

- 0 .7

4.5

705.353

5.7

10.0

4612.912

2.6

2.5

590.755

9.3

5.2

962.315

3.5

4.3

708.231

1.6

8.4

4633.4 63

1.8

2.2

593.701

2.0

3.0

976.315

5.9

4.0

716.800

4.9

6.5

4669.3 73

3.1

2.6

600.662

4.8

5.0

1001.533

10.7

4.8

736.939

1 1.7

5.9

4 712.2 04

3.7

2.8

614.771

9.7

6.4

1035.683

14.4

8.6

75 9 .7 3 4

13.0

7.7

4718.1 96

0.5

2.3

611.864

-1 .9

3.6

1060.886

10.1

10.2

789.290

16.5

1 1.4

4756.4 27

3.3

2.7

617.131

3.5

3.9

1068.696

3.0

9.5

800.771

5.9

1 1.7

1997 1
2
3
4

4818.079

5.3

3.2

637.766

14.1

6.2

1079.006

3.9

7.7

808.932

4.1

9.8

4829.430

0.9

2.5

628.992

-5 .4

2.3

1 11 1.393

12.6

7.3

836.993

14.6

10.2

4896.187

5.6

3.8

656.140

18.4

7.2

1 149.303

14.4

8.3

874.482

19.2

10.8

4926.148

2.5

3.6

659.296

1.9

6.8

1 154.552

1.8

8.0

872.663

-0 .8

9.0

1998

4994.635

5.7

3.7

687.669

18.4

7.8

1202.239

17.6

1 1.4

908.679

17.6

12.3

1




22

National EconomicTrends
Employment Cost Index

GDP Chain Price Index
Index
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995 1
2
3
4
1996 1
2
3
4

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

ECI: Benefits

ECI: Wages

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

102.643

2.6

118.4

3.6

115.2

2.9

127.0

5.4

105.088

2.4

122.2

3.2

118.5

2.9

132.1

4.0

107.763

2.5

125.7

2.8

121.9

2.9

135.0

2.2

1 10.224

2.3

129.2

2.8

126.0

3.3

137.4

1.8

140.2

2.0

1 12.447

2.0

3.1

133.2

130.4

3.5

106.933

3.3

2.7

124.4

2.9

3.0

120.6

2.7

3.0

133.9

1.2

2.7

107.485

2.1

2.6

125.3

2.9

2.9

121.5

3.0

2.9

134.6

2.1

2.4

108.031

2.0

2.5

126.1

2.6

2.7

122.4

3.0

2.9

135.3

2.1

1.9

108.603

2.1

2.4

126.9

2.6

2.8

123.2

2.6

2.8

136.0

2.1

1.9

109.349

2.8

2.3

127.7

2.5

2.7

124.4

4.0

3.2

136.1

0.3

1.6

109.857

1.9

2.2

128.8

3.5

2.8

125.6

3.9

3.4

137.0

2.7

1.8

1 10.588

2.7

2.4

129.7

2.8

2.9

126.5

2.9

3.3

137.8

2.4

1.8

1 1 1.103

1.9

2.3

130.6

2.8

2.9

127.4

2.9

3.4

138.6

2.3

1.9

1 1 1.775

2.4

2.2

131.4

2.5

2.9

128.5

3.5

3.3

138.8

0.6

2.0

1 12.272

1.8

2.2

132.6

3.7

3.0

129.7

3.8

3.3

139.7

2.6

2.0

1997 1
2
3
4

1 12.673

1.4

1.9

133.7

3.4

3.1

131.0

4.1

3.6

140.4

2.0

1.9

1 13.068

1.4

1.8

135.1

4.3

3.4

132.5

4.7

4.0

141.7

3.8

2.2

1998 1

1 13.329

0.9

1.4

136.0

2.7

3.5

133.6

3.4

4.0

142.1

1.1

2.4

Exports
Billions
of 1992 $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1995 1
2
3
4

imports

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

658.183

2.9

728.409

8.9

100.1

0.1

102.3

712.399

8.2

817.026

12.2

100.5

0.4

104.1

1.8

791.213

1 1.1

890.057

8.9

100.7

0.2

106.7

2.5

2.3

857.022

8.3

971.469

9.1

102.6

1.9

1 10.8

3.8

962.710

12.3

1109.233

14.2

104.3

1.7

1 15.0

3.8

12.5

873.861

10.0

13.0

100.3

-1 .6

-0 .3

105.5

2.3

1.6

10.4

890.284

7.7

10.2

100.5

0.8

-0 .2

106.3

3.1

2.3

760.368
777.447

7.2
9.3

802.435

13.5

1 1.1

895.368

2.3

7.5

100.8

1.2

0.4

107.1

3.0

2.8

824.604

1 1.5

10.3

900.720

2.4

5.6

101.4

2.4

0.7

108.1

3.8

3.1
3.4

1996 1
2
3
4

828.178

1.7

8.9

928.963

13.1

6.3

102.1

2.8

1.8

109.1

3.8

847.444

9.6

9.0

960.043

14.1

7.8

102.8

2.8

2.3

1 10.5

5.2

4.0

851.382

1.9

6.1

990.240

13.2

10.6

102.6

-0 .8

1.8

1 1 1.4

3.3

4.0

901.071

25.5

9.3

1006.623

6.8

11.8

103.1

2.0

1.7

1 12.3

3.3

3.9

1997 1
2
3
4

922.652

9.9

1 1.4

1048.941

17.9

12.9

103.4

1.2

1.3

1 13.5

4.3

4.0

962.500

18.4

13.6

1099.106

20.5

14.5

104.0

2.3

1.2

1 14.4

3.2

3.5

973.025

4.4

14.3

1137.097

14.6

14.8

104.9

3.5

2.2

1 15.5

3.9

3.7

992.661

8.3

10.2

1151.787

5.3

14.4

105.3

1.5

2.1

1 17.0

5.3

4.2

1998 1

984.144

-3 .4

6.7

1183.823

11.6

12.9




23

tiationa\EconomicTrends
Household Survev Emolovment
Thousands

Change

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

120259
123069
124903
126708
129557

1771
2810
1834
1805
2849

1
2
3
4

125656
126323
127067
127787

449
667
744
720

1997

1
2
3
4

128697
129387
129723
130421

1998

1

Nonfarm Pavroll Emolovment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
ago
rate

Thousands Change

Nonfarm Aaareaate Ho

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

1.9
3.1
2.7
2.0
2.3

124.5
129.8
133.4
136.4
140.6

2.9
4.2
2.8
2.2
3.1

1.5
2.3
1.5
1.4
2.2

110707
114145
117195
119517
122263

21 16
3438
3051
2322
2746

1.4
2.1
2.4
2.3

0.6
1.3
1.8
2.1

118471
119248
119898
120452

522
778
649
555

1.8
2.7
2.2
1.9

1.7
2.0
2.1
2.1

134.3
136.1
137.0
138.1

0.1
1.3
0.7
0.8

0.4
5.5
2.7
3.1

1.0
2.5
2.5
2.9

910
690
336
698

2.9
2.2
1.0
2.2

2.4
2.4
2.1
2.1

121138
121854
122575
123487

686
715
721
912

2.3
2.4
2.4
3.0

2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5

139.5
140.1
140.6
142.2

1.0
0.4
0.4
1.1

4.1
1.7
1.6
4.5

3.8
2.9
2.6
3.0

131080

659

2.0

1.9

124421

934

3.1

2.7

143.9

1.2

4.8

3.2

1996 Mar

125951

180

1.7

0.8

118804

254

2.6

1.8

135.4

0.2

2.7

2.0

Apr
May
Jun

126057

106
264
270

1.0

119263
119516

162
297
253

1.6
3.0
2.6

1.8

2.5
2.6

0.9
1.5
1.7

118966

126321
126591

2.1
2.1

135.1
135.7
137.6

-0 .2
0.4
1.4

-2 .6
5.5
18.2

1.0
2.9
3.5

Jul
Aug
Sep

126867
126995
127338

276
128
343

2.6
1.2
3.3

1.7
1.8
1.9

119691
119983
120019

175
292
36

1.8
3.0
0.4

2.2
2.1
2.0

136.1
137.1
137.9

-1.1
0.7
0.6

-1 2 .3
9.2
7.2

1.9
2.8
3.0

Oct
Nov
Dec

127715
127746
127899

377
31
153

3.6
0.3
1.4

1.9
2.0
2.2

120248
120450
120659

229
202
209

2.3
2.0
2.1

2.1
2.1
2.1

137.2
137.9
139.1

-0 .5
0.5
0.9

-5 .9
6.3
1 1.0

2.1
2.7
3.9

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

128541
128515
129035

642
-2 6
520

6.2
-0 .2
5.0

2.6
2.2
2.4

120909
121162
121344

250
253
182

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.2

1.8

2.1

138.2
140.0
140.2

-0 .6
1.3
0.1

-7 .5
16.8
1.7

4.3
3.6
3.5

Apr
May
Jun

129275
129494

240
219

121671
121834
122056

327
163
222

2.3
2.2

139.6
140.0

3.3
3.2

2.2

2.1

140.6

-0 .4
0.3
0.4

-5 .0
3.5

-1 0 2

2.6
2.5
2.2

3.3
1.6

129392

2.3
2.1
-0 .9

5.3

2.2

Jul
Aug
Sep

129661
129747
129761

269
86
14

2.5
0.8
0.1

2.2
2.2
1.9

122440
122492
122792

384
52
300

3.8
0.5
3.0

2.3
2.1
2.3

140.2
140.8
140.9

-0 .3
0.4
0.1

-3 .4
5.3
0.9

3.0
2.7
2.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

129910
130575
130777

149
665
202

1.4
6.3
1.9

1.7
2.2
2.3

123083
123512
123866

291
429
354

2.9
4.3
3.5

2.4
2.5
2.7

141.2
142.9
142.5

0.2
1.2
-0 .3

2.6
15.4
-3 .3

2.9
3.6
2.4

1998 Jan
Feb
Mar

131083
131163
130994

306
80
-1 6 9

2.8
0.7
-1 .5

2.0
2.1
1.5

124265
124517
124481

399
252
-3 6

3.9
2.5
-0 .3

2.8
2.8
2.6

143.6
144.5
143.5

0.8
0.6
-0 .7

9.7
7.8
-8 .0

3.9
3.2
2.4

1996

Digitized24 FRASER
for


National EconomicTrends
Retail Sales

Industriai Production

Unempl.
Rate

Billions
of dollars

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.0

2072.434
2227.838
2331.617
2455.234
2568.316

6.5
7.5
4.7
5.3
4.6

114.543
118.499
124.423

1
2
3
4

5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3

602.441
613.436
614.749

1997

1
2
3
4

1998

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

1996

Index

Treasury
Yields
10-yr

3.6
5.4
4.9
3.5
5.0

103.554
109.171

3 -m o
3.00
4.25
5.49
5.01
5.06

5.86
7.08
6.58
6.44
6.35

624.608

1.7
1.8
0.2
1.6

7.1
7.5
0.9
6.6

5.2
5.7
4.9
5.5

1 16.105
1 18.228
1 19.270
120.393

0.5
1.8
0.9
0.9

2.0
7.5
3.6
3.8

2.3
3.8
3.5
4.2

4.93
5.02
5.10
4.98

5.91
6.72
6.78
6.34

5.3
4.9
4.9
4.7

638.871
635.010
646.541
647.894

2.3
-0 .6
1.8
0.2

9.5
-2 .4
7.5
0.8

6.0
3.5
5.2
3.7

121.940
123.312
125.119
127.321

1.3
1.1
1.5
1.8

5.2
4.6
6.0
7.2

5.0
4.3
4.9
5.8

5.06
5.05
5.05
5.09

6.56
6.70
6.24
5.90

1

4.7

660.046

1.9

7.7

3.3

127.61 1

0.2

0.9

4.7

5.05

5.59

1996 Apr
May
Jun

5.5
5.5
5.3

203.736
205.513
204.187

0.6
0.9
-0 .6

7.0
1 1.0
-7 .5

6.4
6.0
4.8

1 17.530
1 18.257
1 18.897

1.1
0.6

3.5
3.8
4.0

4.95
5.02
5.09

6.51
6.74

0.5

13.6
7.7
6.7

6.91

Jul
Aug
Sep

5.5
5.2
5.2

204.374
204.256
206.1 19

0.1
-0.1
0.9

1.1
-0 .7
11.5

5.1
4.3
5.2

1 18.943
1 19.253
1 19.613

0.0
0.3
0.3

0.5
3.2
3.7

4.1
3.3
3.2

5.15
5.05
5.09

6.87
6.64
6.83

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.3
5.4
5.3

208.1 13
207.844
208.651

1.0
-0.1
0.4

12.2
-1 .5
4.8

6.4
5.2
4.9

119.650
120.587
120.943

0.0
0.8
0.3

0.4
9.8
3.6

3.7
4.3
4.7

4.99
5.03
4.91

6.53
6.20
6.30

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.3

21 1.170

1.2

5.2
4.6

6.58

0.6

3.5
8.0

5.03

1.3
-0.1

5.5

121.288
122.064
122.468

0.3

213.945
213.756

15.5
17.0
-1.1

6.4

5.3
5.2

0.3

4.0

5.3

5.01
5.14

6.42
6.69

Apr
May
Jun

5.0
4.8
5.0

21 1.552
210.972
212.486

-1 .0
-0 .3
0.7

-11.7
-3 .2
9.0

3.8
2.7
4.1

123.073
123.316
123.546

0.5
0.2
0.2

6.1
2.4
2.3

4.7
4.3

5.16
5.05
4.93

6.89
6.71
6.49

Jul
Aug
Sep

4.9
4.9

1.2
0.5
-0 .2

15.4
5.7

5.2
5.8

10.0
7.2

-2 .9

4.5

124.527
125.246
125.585

0.8
0.6

4.9

215.031
216.022
215.488

0.3

3.3

5.0
5.0

5.05
5.14
4.95

6.22
6.30
6.21

Oct
Nov
Dec

4.8
4.6
4.7

215.1 13
215.914
216.867

-0 .2
0.4
0.4

-2.1
4.6
5.4

3.4
3.9
3.9

126.550
127.528
127.884

0.8
0.8
0.3

9.6
9.7
3.4

5.8
5.8
5.7

4.97
5.14
5.16

6.03
5.87
5.81

1998 Jan
Feb
Mar

4.7
4.6
4.7

219.004
220.549
220.493

1.0
0.7
-0 .0

12.5
8.8
-0 .3

3.7
3.1
3.2

127.688
127.452
127.693

-0 .2
-0 .2
0.2

-1 .8
-2 .2
2.3

5.3
4.4
4.3

5.04
5.09
5.03

5.54
5.57
5.65




6.2

3.9
4.7

25

NationalEconomicTrends
rroQucerrnceiim

W
Jfftumer nvx ina»

less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index
Index

Percent chanoe
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly rate
ago

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

1996

144.6
148.3
152.5
157.0
160.6

1
2
3
4

155.1
156.5
157.5
158.8

0.8
0.9
0.6

3.2
3.7
2.4

0.8

1
2
3
4

159.6
160.2
160.9
161.8

1

Year
to date

Index

165.2
166.3
167.4

0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6

2.6
2.5
2.7
2.6

2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6

2.6
2.5
2.6

3.3

3.2
3.5
3.1
3.2

0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5

2.2
1.3
1.9
2.1

2.9
2.3
2.2
1.9

2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9

168.3
169.4
170.2
171.1

0.5
0.7
0.4
0.5

2.2
2.7
1.7
2.1

2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2

2.2
2.4

162.0

0.1

0.5

1.5

0.5

172.1

0.6

2.4

1996 Mar

155.6

0.4

4.7

2.9

4.0

164.6

0.2

Apr
May
Jun

156.2
156.6
156.8

0.4
0.3
0.1

4.7
3.1
1.5

2.9
2.9
2.8

4.1
3.9
3.5

164.9
165.2
165.6

Jul
Aug
Sep

157.2
157.4
157.8

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.1
1.5
3.1

2.9
2.9
3.0

3.5
3.2
3.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

158.3
158.8

3.9
3.9

3.0

3.1

3.2
3.3

3.3
3.3

159.2

0.3
0.3
0.3

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

159.4
159.7
159.8

0.1
0.2
0.1

1.5
2.3
0.8

Apr
May
Jun

160.0
160.1
160.4

0.1
0.1
0.2

Jul
Aug
Sep

160.6
160.9
161.3

Oct
Nov
Dec
1998 Jan
Feb
Mar

1998

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly rate
ago

124.7
125.5
127.9
131.3
131.8

2.8
2.9
2.9
3.2

1997

1.2
0.6
1.9
2.6
0.4

129.9
131.1
131.5
132.6

0.9
0.9
0.3
0.8

3.8
3.7
1.2
3.3

2.2
2.5

2.2
2.2

132.7
131.7
131.4
131.6

0.1
-0 .8
-0 .2
0.2

0.2
-3 .0
-0 .8
0.6

2.1
0.4
-0.1
-0 .8

2.3

2.4

130.3

-1 .0

-3 .9

-1 .8

3.0

2.9

3.0

130.4

0.5

6.7

2.4

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2
2.9

2.7
2.7
2.7

2.8
2.7
2.7

130.9
131.1
131.4

0.4

4.7

0.2
0.2

1.8
2.8

2.4
2.4
2.7

166.0
166.3
166.7

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9
2.2
2.9

2.7
2.7
2.6

2.7
2.7
2.7

131.3
131.5
131.8

-0.1
0.2
0.2

-0 .9
1.8
2.8

2.6
2.9
2.9

3.3

167.1
167.4
167.7

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.9
2.2
2.2

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.7
2.7
2.6

132.3
132.5
133.0

0.4
0.2
0.4

4.6
1.8
4.6

3.1
3.0
2.9

3.0
3.0
2.7

1.5
1.9
1.5

168.0
168.3
168.6

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2
2.2

2.5
2.5
2.4

2.2
2.2
2.2

133.0
132.6
132.4

0.0
-0 .3
-0 .2

0.0
-3 .5
-1 .8

2.5
2.2
1.5

1.5
0.8
2.3

2.4
2.2
2.3

1.5
1.4
1.5

169.2
169.4
169.7

0.4
0.1
0.2

4.4
1.4
2.1

2.6
2.5
2.5

2.7
2.5
2.4

131.9
131.7
131.4

-0 .4
-0 .2
-0 .2

-4 .4
-1 .8
-2 .7

0.8
0.5
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.2

1.5
2.3
3.0

2.2
2.2
2.2

1.5
1.6
1.8

170.0
170.1
170.4

0.2
0.1
0.2

2.1
0.7
2.1

2.4
2.3
2.2

2.4
2.2
2.2

131.1
131.3
131.8

-0 .2
0.2
0.4

-2 .7
1.8
4.7

-0 .2
-0 .2
0.0

161.6
161.8
161.9

0.2
0.1
0.1

2.3
1.5
0.7

2.1
1.9
1.7

1.8
1.8
1.7

170.8
171.0
171.4

0.2
0.1
0.2

2.9
1.4
2.8

2.2
2.2
2.2

2.2
2.1
2.2

131.8
131.6
131.4

0.0
-0 .2
-0 .2

0.0
-1 .8
-1 .8

-0 .4
-0 .7
-1 .2

161.9
162.0
162.0

0.0
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.7
0.0

1.6
1.4
1.4

0.0
0.4
0.2

171.7
172.2
172.4

0.2
0.3
0.1

2.1
3.6
1.4

2.2
2.3
2.3

2.1
2.8
2.4

130.5
130.4
130.0

-0 .7
-0.1
-0 .3

-7 .9
-0 .9
-3 .6

-1 .9
-1 .7
-1 .8


26


164.2

Year
to date

3.3
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.4

152.4
156.7
161.4
165.8
169.7

3.0
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.3

Finished Goods

Percent chanoe
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly rate

2.6

2.8
3.0

National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation o f more com ­
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average o f diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share o f GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution o f a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - X,.i)/G D Pt.i)4 - 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f C urrent B usiness, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level o f detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on
the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of the value of
the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages o f daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (W all Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component o f GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
o f jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates o f civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau o f Labor
Statistics, E m ploym ent a nd Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate o f scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer
sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure o f consumers’
answers to five questions about their current and expected financial
situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes
about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative
sample o f U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum o f the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.




Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption o f government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIP As, except
as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1.
Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent o f federal debt at the end of
fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings o f the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance o f payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports o f goods (mer­
chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex­
ports component o f GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals incom e received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus incom e paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment incom e balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per howr (Y/H ), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects o f infla­
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities o f labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect o f
changes in the value o f existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part o f GDP). Capital con­
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components o f national
income not shown are rental incom e o f persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Econom ic A nalysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Comm erce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in­
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. D ept, o f Com m erce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States D epartm ent o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve B oard
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey R esearch Center, The U niversity o f M ichigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference B oard
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization f o r E conom ic C ooperation a n d D evelopm ent (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

27

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