Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1987
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National Economic Trends December 1987 The nation’s current economic expansion reached the five-year mark in November. One of the most remarkable aspects of this expansion is the continuing decline of the civilian unemployment rate throughout the period, especially in the past year. Over the five-year period, employment expanded at a 2.7 percent annual rate while the labor force grew at a 1.7 percent rate. The unemployment rate for November 1987 was 5.9 percent; at the trough of the last recession in November 1982, it stood at 10.8 percent. The decline occurred in three stages: a sharp drop of 3.6 percentage points during the first two years, a much slower decline of only 0.3 percentage points from late 1984 to late 1986, and a decline of one percentage point over the past year. The accompanying table provides additional detail about the factors that contributed to the unemployment rate decline. After an initial period of rapid acceleration, employment growth slowed in 1985 and 1986, before accelerating again, albeit more slowly, in 1987. Growth in the labor force was relatively slow early in the expansion, but accelerated from 1984 to 1986, before slowing in 1987. The 1987 decline in the unemployment rate reflected both the relatively slow growth of the labor force and accelerating employment. Since late 1982, the composition of employment growth has also changed. In 1983 and 1984, both service-producing and goods-producing employment grew rapidly. Service-producing employment continued strong, for the most part, through 1987. Goods-producing employment declined in 1985 and 1986 before strengthening in 1987. Employment Trends (percent change) 1987 Civilian noninstitutional population Civilian labor force Total civilian employment Unemployment rate Payroll employment Service-producing Goods-producing 1.2% 1.6 2.8 -1 .0 2.8 3.0 2.2 1986 1985 1.4% 2.2 2.3 -0 .1 2.0 2.9 - 0 .6 1.0% 1.7 1.9 - 0 .2 2.6 3.7 - 0 .6 1984 1.2% 1.7 3.2 -1 .3 4.5 4.7 4.1 1983 1.1% l.i 3.6 -2 .3 3.5 3.2 4.4 Note: All figures are for the 12-month period ending in November of the year indicated. — Keith M. Carlson THE FEDER. VL IUSEKM RANK of ST.lJOl'LS views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions or the Federal Reserve system. total c iv ilia n employment COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T ERMI NAL MONTH IN ITIAL *-86 5-86 6— 86 7-86 8-«6 9-86 1 0 - 8 6 1 1 —86 12-86 1-87 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 I D — 87 109 » 165 5-86 2.2 6-86 3.6 5.0 7-86 3.* *.0 109,613 3.0 109,887 110,067 8-86 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.0 9-86 2.3 2.3 I.* 0.5 -0*9 10-86 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.7 2.3 11-86 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 2.5 2.6 109,987 110,192 110,432 12-86 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.* 2.* 2.3 1-87 2.5 2.5 2.2 2. 1 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.2 110,637 *•1 111,011 111,382 2-87 2.7 2.7 2 .* 2.3 2.* 3.1 3.3 3.5 *.l 3-87 2.* 2.* 2. 1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 - 0.2 *-87 2.6 2.7 2.* 2. * 2.* 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.5 5.1 3.* 3.5 3.7 *.0 3.9 3.9 6.0 6.8 2.7 2.* 3.2 2.3 *.1 111,368 111,835 112,447 5-87 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 6-87 2.6 2.6 2.* 2. V 2.* 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 7-87 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.7 3.2 1.5 5.1 8-87 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3. 1 3.7 3.4 2.3 4.5 1.8 112,257 - 2.0 112,727 113,081 3.8 112,772 9-87 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.* 2.1 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 -3 .2 10-87 2.6 2.6 2.* 2.* 2.* 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.* 2.8 2.4 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.6 *.5 11-87 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.5 3.9 *-86 5-86 6 -8 6 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-81 3-FT 6 - 8 7 ”~ IN ITIAL “ B- T 7 113,187 113,500 3.* " MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . DECEMBER 4 , 1987 LUUIS PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE IN ITIAL TERMI NAL MONTH *-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 THOUSANDS OF PERSQH5 1*ONTH 2-8 7 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 99,389 5-86 1.7 6-86 0.* - 0.8 7-86 1.4 1.3 99,323 99,601 3.4 99,772 8-86 1.6 1.6 2.7 2. 1 9-86 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 3.3 10-86 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.1 100,039 100,209 100,415 11-86 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 12-86 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.8 100,567 1-87 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 *.3 100,919 2-87 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 2.8 3-87 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 4-87 2.* 2.4 5-87 2.3 2.3 2.6 6-87 2.2 2.3 2.5 7-87 2.3 2.4 2.6 101,150 101,329 101,598 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2. * 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 3.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 101,708 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 101,818 102,126 8-87 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 1.8 9-87 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.9 10-87 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.3 4.1 6.5 11-87 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2 *8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.8 4.8 4-86 5-86 6— 86 7-86 8-86 9-Ì6 10-86 l l -*6 12—86 ¿-è? i-é? 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 P- PRÉLÌMÌMAfcY' 102,275 102,434 102,970P 3.2 103,244P 9— 87 1 0 - 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------- ~ PREFARED BV FEDERAL RE SERVI: BAH* U>- 51 * LUU1S _______________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________DECEMBER 4 , 1987________________________ 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE M I L L IONS OF RAT I 0 PERSONS SEASONALLY M I LL IONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE PERSONS 130 1 25 1 20 I Ì 5 I 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 SOURCE« U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY l®86, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3%. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 . 11.0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6 . 6.0 5. 5.0 11 4. 4.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt NOVEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 CONSUMER P R I C E I NOEX F OH A L L UKBAN CONSUMERS, S EASONAL LY A D J U S T E D ---------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- C Q f f P WHOEP AfttftlAL HA T E S Of CttARftE_____________________________________________________________________ ILRH1 NAL-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I N I T I A L MONTH__________________ _______________________________________________________\ * 6 7 » 100 MONTH 4-86 _ _ * t 86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11 - 8 6 12-86 1-87 2-87 4-87 3-87 6-8 7 _ 7-87 5-8 7 8-87 10-87 9-87 326.4 ... ?i P. _ 327.8 6-96 *.l 5.? 7-86 2.9 2,8 0,4 8-86 2.6 2.5 l.l 1.8 9-86 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.8 327.9 328.4 3.7 3 29.4 330.0 10-36 2,7 2,7 2,0 2.6 3,0 2.2 11-86 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 12-86 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.2 1-87 3,3 3.3 3*1 3.5 3.8 3.9 *.* 5*2 8,3 2-87 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 4. 1 *.6 5.2 6.7 5.2 3-87 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 *.7 5.2 6.2 5.1 5.1 4.1 *.5 4.8 5.2 6,0 5.3 5.3 *-87 3.8 3*8 3.7 330.8 331.4 333.6 335.0 336.4 337.9 5.5 339.0 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.1 *.* *.7 5.0 5.6 4.9 *.9 4.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 4. 1 *.* *.7 *.9 5.* *.8 *.7 *.6 *.2 4.3 7-87 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.0 *.2 *.5 *.7 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.6 2.9 8-87 3.9 *.0 3.9 *.1 *.* *.6 *.8 5. 1 W 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 5.8 • OP 5-87 6-87 340.2 3 41.0 342.6 9-87 3.8 3.8 3.7 *.0 *.2 *.* *.5 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.9 2.1 10-87 3.8 3.9 3. 8 *.0 *.2 4.4 *.5 4.8 *.* 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.2 3.4 4.6 3.8 3.9 3. 8 *.0 *.2 *.3 *.* *.7 *.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.4 4.1 3.5 *-86 5-86 6—86 7-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6— 8 7 7-87 8-87 4-8t 10-87 11-87 8-86 IN ITIAL 3*3.2 344.5 345.5 MONTH PREPARED 6 V F E M r A L RESt mr t RaWC OF S T . LOUIS m ttrn* i»t m 7______________________ PRODUCER PR I CE I N O E X , F I N I S H E O t OOOS - S EAS ONAL L Y AD J US T E D* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE IN ITIAL TERMI NAL HONTH 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 1967 » HONTH 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-07 9-87 100 10-87 2ft.8 5-86 6.0 6-86 *.2 7-86 -0.3 -3.3 - 8.8 8-86 0.9 -0.7 -2.3 4.7 9-86 1.4 0.3 -0.4 4.0 2 . 5 _________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 * 9 . 4 287.2 288.3 289.1 3.4 10— 86 1.9 l.l 0.7 4.1 3.8 4 . 2 ____________________________________________________________________________ 11-86 1.7 1.0 0.7 3.2 2.7 2.3 0.4 12-86 1.6 1.0 0.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 0.6 _____________ 2 9 0 . 1 __________________________ 290.2 290.4 0.8 291.7 1-87 2.0 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.1 5.5 2-87 1.9 I.* 1.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.4 3.1 0.8 3-87 2.3 2.0 1.9 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.5 4.3 3.8 6.8 *-87 2.7 2.4 2.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 4.1 4.9 4.7 6.8 6.7 5-87 2.7 2.4 2.4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.2 5.3 4.6 2.5 6-87 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.6 3.9 2.5 7-87 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 8-87 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 9-87 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.7 0.4 -2.8 0.1 -1.4 0.0 T = f 7 — 8^ « T *-87 10-87 291.9 293.5 295.1 295.7 2.5 ______________ 296.9 10-87 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.9 11-87 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.3 l.l 0.7 4-86 5^*6 6— 56 7^îï S-éi *-**' TT^W IJ^W; Y ^W l ?^i7 5-87 *=*7 * - # 1— * - § 7 296.3 297.4 298.3 297.6 297.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- nrrrr a wwtw----------------------------------------------------------♦DATA FOR FOUR HONTHS ACO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L A T E R E P O E T I N Ç ____________________ wwhwm w r r F tP W J «» h DeC£W» €R 1 1 , 4 l j m u p 1987__________________________ i t . t ou ts RATIO PRICES SCALE 1967-100 se a so n a lly C ONS UME R P R I C E I ND E X C P I - U Da t a B E G I N N I N G PERCENTAGES LATEST ARE I S FOR AL L URBAN C ONS U ME R S ( C P I - U ) . 19 8 3 I NC O R P O R A T E a r e n t a l E Q U I V A L E N C E ANNUAL OATa PL OTTED. RATIO RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERI ODS s c a l e DATA P LO T T E D. FOR HOME OWNE R S HI P COSTS NOVE MBE R PRODUCER BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRICES P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S L ATEST ME AS UR E I NDI CATED. PR EP A R ED r a t i o SCALE 1967 - 1 0 0 adjusted IN D IC A T E D . NOVEMBER PR EP A R ED 5 BY F ED ER A L RESERVE BAMK OF S T . L O U IS PRODUCER P R I C E I NDEX* F I N I S H E D COWSUMER FOODS - S EASONAL LY AD»AJSTED* _________ COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE______________________________ IN ITIAL 4-86 5-86 6—96 9.3 17.3 12.1 17.7 7-66 8-66 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-66 1967 * 100 MONTH 1-87 2-87 3 -8 1 4-87 5-87 6-8 7 7-87 8-87 9-67 10-87 18*1 13.6 8.2 9.3 11.3 0.8 9.3 5.2 11.6 6.2 2.6 4.3 -2.5 3.8 0.5 1.0 -3.9 -5.3 -3.8 -4.5 -9.3 -12.5 -0.5 -3.3 -3.8 1.5 -0.3 -2.6 -2.9 -5.6 -6.4 1.7 -0.2 *.5 4.2 -19.2 -10.5 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 -l.l -0.9 -6.7 9.6 18.6 283.1 1.3 2.7 9.1 12.6 18.7 18.8 1.4 2.6 7.6 9.8 12.7 9.9 1.7 1.7 5.7 7.0 8.5 5.3 -O.fl 0.2 -5.3 - 8.6 -1 3 .7 -0.9 -0.4 -1 .7 -0.8 14.0 1.9 0.8 2.2 -0.8 -1.5 -0.8 6.3 -0.8 2.0 1.0 2.4 -0.1 -0.5 5 ^ 5=17 T=Ï7 5=57 9-57 3.0 2.8 ~Ï =Ï Ï 6— 5 ^ 5 6 — 5 ^ 5 — »DATA 285.3 -0.4 *.2 2.8 - 1.9 4.0 3.0 283.5 18.1 — 9- 86 1 0-86 1 1 -8 6 1 2-86 R¥7 2 FÏ7 Ï=S7 *= ¥7 1 0-5 7 -------------------------------------------------------- I NI T I AL MONTH FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L AT E REP OR T I NG PREPARED BY T E OE R A U RESERVE M R * OECENBER 11* 1987 OF 5 1 . LOUI S PRODUCER P R I C E INOEX* F I N I S H E D GOOOS# E XC L U OI N G FOODS - SEASONAL LY A6J05T£C>* ______________________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT E S OF CHANGE__________________________________ INITIAL 1967 * 100 MONTH MONTH 4-86 5-86 2.5 6— 86 2.5 5-86 6— 86 7-86 8-66 9-86 10-86 11-66 12-66 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 2 90.9 291.5 2.5 287.1 7-86 -4.3 -7.6 -16.7 8-86 -3.2 -5.0 -8.5 0.4 9-86 - 1.6 - 2.6 —4 . 2 2.7 5.1 10-86 - 1.0 -1.7 - 2.8 2.4 3.4 1.7 11-86 —0 . 6 -l .l - 1.8 2.3 3.0 1.9 2.1 12-86 - 0.2 - 0.6 -l.l 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 1-87 1.4 1.3 l.l 4.4 5.3 5.3 6.5 2-87 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.3 287.2 288.4 266.8 269.3 289.9 2.5 6.6 15.5 6.4 8.3 7.0 8.5 293.4 293.8 295.9 6.9 3-87 2.1 2.1 2.0 4-87 2.2 2.1 2.1 4.4 4.9 4.9 5.5 6.2 7.1 5.9 2.9 5-87 1.8 1.7 1.6 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.0 2.9 0.0 - 2.8 6-87 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.0 296.6 295.9 2.9 296.6 7-87 2.1 2.0 2.0 3.7 4.0 3.9 *.4 4.7 3.3 1.9 1*6 3.9 5.0 8-87 2.4 2.4 2.4 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.5 *.6 5.1 4.1 3.1 3.2 5.2 6.4 7.9 9-87 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.4 4.0 4.4 4.1 10-87 2.0 1.9 1.9 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.5 - 1.6 -3.5 11-87 1.8 1.8 1.7 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.* 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 -1.5 -2.4 - 1.2 4-86 5-56 6-66 7-66 6-66 9— 66 10-86 11-66 12—6 6 2-17 3— 87 4-67 5-§7 ¿-«7 7-57 5-57 9-57 10-57 *OATA INITIAL FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T L A T E R E P OR T I NG 297.8 299.7 299.6 0.4 296.9 296.6 NflilH PKEFAHED B T FEDERAL K b S r H V t DAN* UF 5 1 . LO U IS 0§CENN€« 11» I M T _________________________ 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO I977-IOO 1979 SEASONALLY 1980 1981 1982 SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS I N D U S T R I A L P RODUCT I ON COMPOUNDED ANNUAL HAT ES Of CHANGE T ERMI NAL__________________ ______________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_________________________________________________________________________ 1977 MONTH 4-87 5-87 7-87 8-87 9 - 8 7 10-67 2-87 6-67 1-87 3-87 4-86 5-86 6- 86 7-86 8-86 9 - 8 6 10-86 11- 86 12-86 100 124.3 5-86 -3.8 6-86 -2.9 -1.9 7-86 0.3 2.* 7.0 8-86 0.5 1.9 3.9 1.0 1 24 . 1 124.8 124.9 124.5 9-86 —0 . * 0.5 1.3 -I.* -3.8 10-86 1.0 1.9 2.9 1.6 1.9 8.0 11-86 I.* 2.3 3.1 2.2 2.6 5.9 3.9 12-86 2.5 3.5 *.* 3.9 *.6 7.6 7.4 125. 3 125.7 126.8 1 1. 0 1 26 . 2 1*6 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 4.2 2.9 2.4 -5.5 2.3 3*0 3.6 3.2 3.6 5.1 4.4 4.5 1.4 8.9 3-87 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.1 3.5 4.7 4.1 4.1 1.9 5.8 *— 87 2.2 2.7 3.2 2.8 3.0 4.0 3.4 3.3 1.4 3.9 5-87 2.6 3*1 3.6 3.3 3.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.7 6-87 3.0 3.6 *.0 3.8 *.0 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.7 00 • 1- 87 2-87 1 27 . 1 127.4 2.9 127.4 1.4 0.0 3.5 3.8 7.8 5.4 8.3 8.8 5.6 4.8 128.2 129. 1 130.6 7-87 3.8 *.3 *.8 *.6 5.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.2 7.1 6.7 7.7 10.4 11.8 1 4.9 8-87 3.9 *.* *.9 *.7 5.0 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.2 6.9 6.6 7.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 5.7 9-87 3.5 *.0 *.* *.2 *.* 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.3 5.6 5.2 5.6 6.7 6.5 5.7 1.4 10-87 3.9 *.3 *.7 *.6 4.9 5.5 5.3 5.5 4.9 6.2 5.8 6.3 7.4 7.3 6.9 4.4 3.7 10.6 11-87 3.9 4.4 4.7 *.6 *.8 5.5 5.3 5.4 4.9 6.0 5.7 6.1 7.0 6.8 6.4 4.4 4.0 7.6 *— 86 5-06 6-86 7-Ô6 8-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2 -8 7 3 -87 4 -87 5-87 6=87 7 -8 7 8 -87 9-87 131. 2 130.9 -2.7 1 3 2 . OP 4.6 1 3 2 . 5P 10-87" IB T T I AL HOHT M--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ê- - P f É L I H I k À f t Ÿ ------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PK&Aktù 6V FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS _______ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________ DECEMBER 1 4t 7 1987_______________________________________ PERSONAL RAT I 0 SCALE TR i L L I O N S MONTHLY OF DOLLARS I NCOME TOTALS AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TR I L I I O N S ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2. 2.2 2 . 2.0 I. 1. 8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCEi PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTEDi DATA ANNUAL rates NOVEMBER OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS U.S. 1986 DEPARTMENT 1987 OF COMMERCE INDICATED. PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A NK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME C PMf t t ffffiEP ANf t UAL A A I E 3 . Qg X Ü A K E E______________________ __________________________________________ _ B I L L I O N S 0É X E R ill M AL_____________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_______________________________________________________________________*><*-1 * * * ANNUAL : R A f ÉS MONTH 5-87 6-67 9-87 10-67 6-87 *- 07 *-86 1- 87 2-87 3-flT 7-8T 5-96 6-06 7-06 8-06 9 - 0 6 1 0 - 8 6 1 1 - 8 6 12—96 3 525.9 5-86 0.0 6-86 0.* 0.8 7-86 1.7 2.5 *.2 8-86 2.3 3.1 *.3 *.* 9-86 2.9 3.6 *.5 *.7 5.0 3 526.1 3 540.3 3 552.9 3 567.5 10-86 3.0 3.5 *.3 *.3 *.2 3.* 11- 86 3. 2 3.7 *.3 *.3 *.3 3.9 3 577.5 *.* 3 590.3 3 613.0 12-86 3. 7 *.3 *.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 6.1 7.9 1 - 87 *.0 *.5 5. 1 5.2 5.* 5.5 6.2 7.1 6.3 2-87 5.0 5.5 6. 1 6.* 6.8 7. 1 8.1 9.3 10. 1 1 3. 9 3 671.2 3-87 *.9 5.* 5.9 6. 1 6 .* 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.9 * •I 3 683.4 *-87 5.0 5.5 5.9 6. 1 6.* 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.6 8.0 5. 1 6.2 5-87 * •8 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.* 6.7 6.5 6.5 *.1 *.2 2.2 6-87 *.6 *.9 5.3 5.* 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.2 3 631.5 3 3 715.3 7-87 * •8 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.0 *. 5 *.6 *.l 5.1 8.0 8-87 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6 .* 6.2 6.2 *.9 5.1 *.0 5.7 7.5 7.1 9-87 5.1 5.* 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.3 5.3 5.5 5.* 6.2 7.5 7.3 7.5 7*9 3 739.2 3 760.6 3 763.2 10-87 6.1 6.* 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 8*I 7.* 7.9 8.2 9.4 11.3 12.5 15.2 23.6 11- 8 7 5.* 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.3 6. * 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.9 7.6 7.8 6.0 6*3 *- 86 5-86 6-86 7-06 8-86 9-66 10— 86 1 1 - 8 6 12-66 1-87 2-07 3-07 *-87 5-67 6- 67 7- 67 6-87 INITIAL P- 701.9 3 700.5 3 050.6 -5.1 3 0 3 3 . 7P 9— 87 1 0 - 0 7 MONTH PR ELI M IN AR Y PREPARÉÒ fcy f e W f t A L ft ESf f t Vt r RANK OF S T . L O U I S _________________________________________________________________________ ___________ _____________________________________ DECEMBER I S » 1987_________________________________________ 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS 1979 RATIO OF DOLLARS 1980 SEASONALLY 1981 1982 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 OF 1986 SCALE DOLLARS 1987 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: OCTOBER, NOVEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL COMPOUNDED ANNUAL INITIAL T ERMI NAL MONTH 4—86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 SALES RAT ES Of CHANGE M I L L I O N S OF OOLLTffTS MONTH 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 119*507 5-86 1 5. 1 6-86 7.8 1.0 7-86 8.3 5.0 119*605 120*478 9. 1 1 21 *735 8-86 9.5 7.7 11.2 1 3. 3 9-86 23.8 26* I 35.7 51.4 102.4 10-86 7.1 5,5 6.7 5.9 2.4 129, 101 -48*2 122*222 121*683 11-86 5.2 3.7 4.2 3.0 - 0.2 -29.9 12-86 12.3 11.9 13.8 14.8 15.2 -4.5 29.6 77.0 1-87 0.5 - 1.2 -1.5 -3.1 - 6. 1 -2 2.5 -11.4 -14.4 -5.2 127*613 -58.6 118*579 124*280 2-87 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.5 4.2 -8.7 5.1 8.8 -14.7 75.7 3-87 6.0 5.1 5.6 5.2 4. 1 -6.9 4.7 7.3 -9.1 34.6 3*1 4-87 5.8 5*0 5.4 5.0 4.0 -5.4 4.5 6.6 - 6.1 23.3 3*3 3.6 5-87 5.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 3.4 -4.9 3.7 5.3 -5.1 16.8 1*9 1*3 124*593 124*960 124*867 -0*9 126*307 6-87 5.9 5.2 5.6 5.3 4.5 -2.9 5.1 6*6 - 2.0 16*4 5*0 5*6 6.6 14.8 7-87 6.0 5.4 5.7 5.5 4.8 -1 .9 5. 3 6*7 -0*7 14*8 5.5 6* 1 6.9 11*0 7*4 8-87 6.8 *3 6.6 6.5 5.9 - 0.1 6.6 8*0 1*6 15.4 7.6 8*6 9.8 13*7 13*1 127*061 128*931 19*2 126*790 9-87 5.1 4 -5 4.8 4.5 3.8 - 1.8 4. 1 5.1 -0.9 10.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 4*7 1*5 -1*3 -18*2 10-87 4.2 3. 5 3.8 3*4 2.7 -2.5 2.8 3.6 - 1.8 8.0 1.7 1.5 l.l 1*5 - 1*6 -4*4 -14*4 -10*3 11-87 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.7 - 2.2 2.7 3.4 -1.5 7*4 1.7 1.5 1« 2 1*6 -0*9 - 2.8 -9.2 -4*3 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 i 1-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-S7 IT-VT^ 6-0 7 7-87 8-87 9-87 125*645P 2.0 125#855E no- 8 y I NI T T JTL HON TO--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------P - P R E LIM IN A R Y --------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------E - ESTIM ATED ~ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PREPARED BY F-fcUFWAL RfcSERVfc BANK UF S I . L U U 13" ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________ DECEMBER l i t 198T _____________________ ___________________ 9 HOURLY COMPENSAT I ON* BUSINESS SECT OR CQflPQUftPED ANNUAL RA IE S Of CHAHiE_____ 4-82 1 - 83 1-83 2-83 3—81 4-ftl 2 —84 1-84 3-84 4-84 1977-100 QUARTER 1-A5 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 1 01 IN ITIAL TERMI NAL QUARTER 2-87 159.8 3.0 2-03 __¿*5 160.8 161.4 3-83 2,6 2.0 1*5 *-83 3.3 3.2 3.5 5.6 1- 8* 3.8 4.2 5.5 5.5 2-84 3,5 3_*£_ 4,6 4.1 2.7 163.6 165.8 166.9 168.7 3-84 3*7 3.7 3.9 4.5 4.2 3. 5 4.4 4-84 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 5. 1 5.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 4. 5 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.6 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.3 1-85 2-85 3-85 4.1 4-85 170.3 3.8 172.4 5.0 4.7 17*.6 177.0 179.3 180.7 1-86 * •2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.2 2-86 4. 1 4. 1 4.3 4.5 4 o4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.4 3-86 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4. 1 3.7 3.2 3.2 4-86 4.0 4. 1 4.3 4.2 4. 1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 1-87 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2-87 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.9 3.8 2.9 3.7 *-84 1-85 3-87 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.8 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 IN ITIAL 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 185.2 185.8 1.3 >6 e 1 * 4-82 3.8 3.9 182.2 183.6 3.1 1-87 187.3 4. 1 189.2 2-87 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U I S DECEMBER 3 t 1997__________________________________________ OU T P U T PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS* BUSINESS SECTOR _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL ftAI£S.-Qf CHANftE_________ INITIAL TERMI NAL QUARTER 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1- 8 * 2- 8* 3-8* * - 8* 1-85 1977*100 QUARTER 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-66 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-87 101.9 1-63 3.6 2-83 4*8 6*0 3-83 2,6 2,2 -1,5 4-83 2.7 2,4 0,6 2.7 103.* 103.0 103.7 1-84 3.2 3,1 2,2 4.1 5.5 2-84 3.0 2,9 2,1 3.4 3.7 3-84 2.5 2,3 1,6 2.4 2.3 105.1 105.6 1.9 105.5 - 0.* 105.9 4-84 2.4 2.2 1,6 2.2 2.1 1-85 2.4 2.2 1,7 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 106.5 2-85 2.4 2.3 1,8 2.3 2.2 2.5 107.2 3-85 2.5 2.4 2,0 2.5 2.6 2.9 1.3 l.l 3.8 106.2 4-85 2.2 2,1 1,7 2.1 1.5 U* l.a 1.9 1.3 -l .l 1-86 2.5 2,4 2,1 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.* 2-86 2.4 2,3 2,0 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.* 2.3 1.9 3.* 0.7 3-86 2.2 2,1 1,8 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.3 2.1 0.2 —0 , * 4-86 2. 1 2,0 1,7 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.1 - 0.2 1-87 2,0 1,9 1,6 1.8 1.7 1. * 1.* 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.2 o • o 0.2 0 .* 1.9 1*6 1.9 1.7 1*6 It* 1*3 1.0 i.* o,* 0.* 0*6 0.9 1.5 2,0 1,9 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.0 I.* 1.8 2.6 3.7 4-82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 *-83 1- 8 * 2 - 8* 3-8* * - 8* 2-85 3-85 *-65 1-86 2-66 3-66 *— 66 1-67 2-67 2-87 3-87 . 1-85 IN ITIA L 107.9 6.1 109.5 109.7 109.6 0.0 109.6 109.7 110.1 lll.l (WÄR TE R PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS P tCEM M R 1 , I t t T _______________________ 10 P R O D UC T I V I T Y , COMPENSATION, RATIO SCALE 1977-100 1979 AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SEASONALLY 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SO U R C E . U . S . P ER C E N T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R A TE S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DATA PLO T T E D . SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1987 DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR IN D IC A T E D . 3RD QUARTER P R EP A R ED BY FED ER A L UNIT LABOR COST S* B US I NES S RESERVE BAN* OF S T . L O U IS SECT OR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE TERMI NAI _________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ 1 9 7 7 » 10 0 QUARTER 1- 87 2-87 3- 95 *-95 1- 96 2-86 3-86 *-86 1- 8 1 4-84 1-85 2- 65 4- f l 2 2 - 83 3 —B3 4-83 i-a* 2 —B* 3-94 1-83 156.6 0.0 155.5 2-83 -1.7 -3.3 3- 83 - 0.1 - 0.1 4-83 0.6 0. 8 2.8 2.6 1- 8* 0.5 0*6 2.0 1. * 0.3 2 - 8* 0.5 0.6 1.6 U I 0.* 0.5 3-8* 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.7 4.9 * - 8* 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.5 3.6 156.7 3.1 157.7 157.6 158.0 159.9 160.6 2.3 161.9 1-85 I.* 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.3 2.5 2.9 2-85 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 3-85 1.6 1.7 2. * 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 *-85 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.* 3.1 3.3 3.5 *.l 6.3 1-86 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 - 2.6 2- 86 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1 2. 3 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.1 2.2 2.1 163.6 166.1 165.0 166.2 2.9 167.5 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2. * 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.* l.l 3. 1 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.* 2.* 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.7 3.2 3.* 3.6 1-87 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.* 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.0 2- 87 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.* 2.5 2.3 2.3 ?•? 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.5 2.* 2.2 1. * 1.9 3-87 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2. 1 2. 1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1. * 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.0 *-82 1- 83 2- 83 3-83 *-83 1- 8 * 2-95 3-85 *-95 1-86 2—6 6 3-66 *-86 1-67 2-87 rv 3-86 *- 86 1 0» + 2.3 162.6 3-9* *-84 i n i 1-95 T ial 169.0 1 69. * 170.2 170.2 quarter PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS DECEMBER 3 , 11 1997 ___________________________________________ t k ò H U A TftW U i k à ò b U T I n t ú k k t W M C C A I5 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES *— 82 1-83 1-83 6.8 2-83 9.9 13.0 2-83 3-6 3 *-83 1- 6 * 2—&* 3-8* * - 6* 1-65 2-85 1-86 2-66 3-86 *-86 1-67 2-87 3*265.6 9.* 1 1.6 10.9 12. * 1-84 11.4 12.5 12.4 13.9 15.* 2-84 1 0.9 11.8 11.5 12.2 12. 1 8.9 3-84 1 0.2 10.8 10.3 10.6 10.0 7.* 5.8 *-84 9.5 9.9 9.4 9.* 8.6 6.5 5.3 *.7 1-85 9.3 9.6 9.1 9.0 8. * 6.7 6.0 6.0 7.* 2-85 8.9 9. 1 8.6 8.5 7.9 6.5 5.8 5.8 6. * 3-85 8.7 8.9 8.5 8.3 7.8 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.6 6.3 7.1 1 8.5 8.7 8.2 8.1 7.6 6.5 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.7 1 11.2 <*> 00 9.7 10.4 CD VT *-65 3*367.4 4-83 + 3-65 3***3.9 3*5*5.8 3*67*.9 3*75*.2 3 *807.9 3*851.8 3*921.1 5.5 3*973.6 **0*2 . 0 6.3 * * 10* . * 1-86 8.4 8.5 8. 1 8.0 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.8 6. 7 7.0 2-86 8.0 8. 1 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.3 3.6 3-86 7.9 7.9 7.5 7.* 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.3 *.* *♦17*.* **211.6 **265.9 5.3 **286.1 4-86 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.* 5.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 *.5 3.6 3.7 2.1 1-87 7.6 7.6 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.9 5*7 5.7 5.5 5.3 *.9 5.3 5.3 6.6 2-87 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.6 7.5 6.3 3-87 7.5 7.5 7.2 7. 1 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.9 6.1 7.* 6.8 7.3 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-6* 1 - < H 3 - Ô * 4-84 1 -Ô5 2 - Ô 5 3 - 8 5 *-85 1-66 2-86 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-8 1 *,377.7 *,**5.1 *,52*.0 I N I T I A I GUARIfctt P REPARE E B T PEÜERAL RESfcRVfc BANK Ul- S I . L O U I S DECEMBER 17» 1967_________________________________________ CROSS NA T I ONA L PRODUCT I N 1962 DOLLARS COMPOUMOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE --------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- B I L L I O N S OF T E R MI N A L _______________________ ______________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS “ ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 1- 87 2-87 2-86 3-86 *-86 *-85 1- 86 2- 65 3- 85 1- 8 * 2- 8 * 3- 8* * - 8* 1-85 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-83 3.5 2-83 6.4 3,166.6 3*256.3 9.3 3*306.* 3-83 6.3 7.7 6.0 *-83 6.5 7.5 6.7 7.3 1- 8* 7.3 8.3 8.0 9.0 3,365.1 3»*51.7 10.7 3 **98.0 2- 8* 7.0 7.7 7.* 7.8 8.1 5.5 3-6* 6« ^ 6.9 6.* 6.5 6.2 *.0 2.6 5.8 6. 1 5.6 5.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 4-84 3*520.6 3*535.2 1.7 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.2 *.6 3.* 2.7 2.6 3.8 5.2 5.* *.9 *.8 *.* 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.1 3-85 5. 1 5.3 *.8 *.7 *.3 3.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.1 4-85 *.9 5. 1 *.7 *.5 *.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.1 1-86 5.0 5. 1 *.7 *.6 *.3 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.6 *.2 *.2 5.* *6 «0 1 3*566.7 1-85 2- 85 *.7 *.7 *.* *.2 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 3*567.1 3*623.0 *.1 3*650.9 3*696.6 0.6 3*70*.7 3*716.0 3-86 *.* *.5 *.1 *.0 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.0 4-66 *.2 *.3 *.0 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.* 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1-67 *.3 *.3 *.0 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.* 2.9 *.* 2-67 *.2 *.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.* 2.8 3.* 2.5 3-87 *.2 *.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.* *-62 1-63 2-83 3-83 *-83 1- 8 * 2- 8* 3—6* * - 8* 1-85 2-85 5-85 *-85 1-86 2-16 3-6* *-66 1-67 1. * 3*731.5 3*772.2 3*795.3 *.3 3*635.9 2-51 PW EP AUtD B T F L P L K A L Efc5fc*l E BAWR ÜF S U L O U IS O t C E M a I 7 t 1967_________________________________________ 12 GROSS RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF N AT I ONAL QUARTERLY DOLLARS T OT A L S PRODUCT AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY RATES ADJUSTED TRILLIONS RATIO SCALE OF D O L L A R S 8 4 4 4 .0 4. 3 .0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS L ATE S T DATA PLOTTED: 1985 U.S. 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I NDI CATED. 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RE SE RVE BANK OF ST . 13 L OU I S GENERAL RAT I 0 PRICE INDEX* SCALE RAT I 0 1982-100 1979 SCALE 1982-100 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 »AS USEO IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 3RD OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS iriH tttT frftiCfe b t t U m tk b ii ^ T IO M A l M M U C T ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE_____________ 100 CD 1 T E R MI N A L _________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ 1962 « QUARTER 2-67 4-85 1-86 2—8 6 3-66 4-86 1-87 2-8 3 3-83 3-85 4-82 1-83 1-84 1-65 4-83 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-63 3 •2 2-83 3.2 102.5 103.3 3.2 3-83 3.3 3.3 3.5 4-83 3.6 3.6 4. 1 4.7 104.2 1— 84 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.5 105.4 4.2 106.5 107.3 2-64 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.6 3-84 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.4 4-84 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 1-85 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 2-85 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3-85 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 4-85 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 1-86 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2-86 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 108.2 3.0 109.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 109.9 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 110.6 2.9 111.6 3.0 2.9 112.4 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.9 112*9 113.7 114.7 3-86 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2 4-86 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 0.7 1-87 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2 *8 2.7 2.7 2 *6 2. 6 2.6 2.5 4.2 2-87 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 w • o 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.9 3.5 3-87 3.2 3.2 3.2 3. 1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.1 2.6 4-82 1-83 2-83 4-83 1-64 2-84 3-64 4— 64 1 -8 5 2 -4 5 3 -8 5 4-*B5 1 -8 * 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -B 7 2 — 67 3-83 3.6 114.9 116.1 117.1 117.9 rwriiAi « mute* FWEPAEED BY F EPE* AL HESEEVE BÄH* UF S T « LO UIS P€CEM6€R 17« 1967_____________________________________ 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E X P E N O l f l k E * I N C U R à ë ^ T COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES IOF CHANCE T ERMI NAL QUARTER IN ITIAL 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-64 miAi'S"" B I L L I U N 5 WDOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER i-85 2-85 3-65 4-85 1-66 2-66 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 2 » 146*6 1-83 5.7 2-83 9.3 13.0 3-83 9.3 11.1 2 *213*0 2 » 2 62*8 9.3 2*315.8 4-83 9.4 10.6 9.5 9.7 1- 8* 9.1 10.0 9.0 8.9 8. 1 2-84 9.2 10.0 9.2 9.2 8.9 9.8 3— 84 8.7 9.2 8.5 8.3 7.8 7.7 5.6 2*361.1 2*417*0 2*450.3 4-84 8.5 8.9 8.3 8. 1 7.7 7.5 6.4 7.2 1-85 8.6 9.0 8.4 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.4 8.3 2*4 9 3 * 4 9.4 2* 5 4 9 * 9 2*602.0 2-85 8.6 8.9 8.4 8.3 8. 1 8.1 7.7 8.3 8.9 8.4 3-85 8.7 9.0 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.8 9.3 9.3 10. 1 4-85 8.4 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.7 8.1 8.3 7.9 7.7 5.3 1-86 8.2 8.4 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.4 7.0 5.5 5.7 2-86 7.9 8. 1 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.2 6.7 6.3 5.1 4.9 4.1 3-86 8.1 8.3 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.2 6*4 6*8 7.4 10.7 6.7 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.9 6*8 3. 1 2*665.4 2*700.1 2*737.9 2*765.8 2*837.1 2*858.6 4-86 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.1 1-87 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.0 6. 8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.7 5*7 6*2 4.0 5*0 2-87 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.3 7. 1 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.4 5.0 6*0 7.1 3-87 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.4 7. 3 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.6 7.0 6*1 7*2 8.3 9.5 4-^2 1-83 1-84 2-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-06 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-83 4-83 2*893.8 2*943.7 3*011.3 INITIAL OUÄffTra' PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. UF S I * LUU1S OECEMBER 17t 1967_____________________ ___________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON E XP E ND I T U RE S I N 1982 OOLLARS COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE B IL L IO N S OF T ERMI NAL ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL R A I b S QUARTER 2-87 4-86 1-87 3-85 1-86 2-86 3 - 86 1-85 2- 85 4- 85 4-84 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1- 84 2-84 3-84 4-82 3.0 2 *094 *2 2- 83 5.5 8*0 2 *135*1 3- 83 5.4 6.7 5.3 4-83 5.4 6.3 5.4 5.5 1-84 5.1 5.6 4.8 4.6 1-83 2*163.0 2*191.9 2 *2 1 2 . 1 3*7 2 * 2 46 *7 2-84 5.3 5.8 5.2 5.2 3-84 4.8 5.1 4.6 4.4 4*0 4*1 1*9 4-84 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.3 4*1 4*2 3*1 6*4 2*257*3 2 *281*1 4*3 1-85 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.6 4 *4 4 *6 4*0 5*1 5*9 2-85 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.5 4 *4 4.5 4*0 4*7 5*0 4.0 3-85 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.8 4 *7 4*9 4*6 5*3 5.6 5.4 6*9 4*3 4-85 4.7 4.8 4.5 4*4 1-86 4.7 4.8 4*5 4 *4 2-86 4*6 4.7 4*5 4*4 4*3 2 *3 14*1 2*337*0 2 *3 76 *1 4*3 4*0 4*4 4.5 4.0 4*0 1*2 4*4 4*1 4*5 4 *5 4.1 4*2 2*8 4*5 2»383*2 4*3 4*1 4*4 4*4 4.1 4*2 3*3 4*3 4*1 2*409*7 2 »434*3 2*477.5 3-86 4*8 4.9 4*7 4.6 4.6 4*6 4*4 4*6 4*8 4.7 4*8 4*3 5*3 5*7 7* 3 4- 86 4 *5 4.6 4*4 4.3 4.2 4*3 4*0 4*3 4*3 4*0 4*1 3*5 4*1 3*9 3* 6 0 *5 1-67 4*2 4.3 4*0 3*9 3.8 3*6 3*6 3*6 3*7 3*4 3*4 2*6 3*1 2*7 2 *3 - 0 *1 2*6 2*2 0 *5 0*6 1*9 2 *8 I *7 2*2 3*7 5*4 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4-86 1-87 2-87 2- 67 4*1 4.1 3*9 3*8 3*7 3*7 3*5 3*6 3*5 3.3 3*2 2*7 2*9 3- 87 4*1 4.2 4.0 3.9 3*6 3*6 3*6 3*7 3*7 3.5 3*4 3*0 3*3 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-8 3 4 -8 3 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1 -8 5 7 -8 5 3-85 4-85 in it ia l 1-86 2 *480*5 2*475.9 -0*7 2*487.5 2*520.7 ouARrnr PREPARED BT FEDE RA L RF 5 inTYE~ BAN* UF 51* L U U FS DECEMBER 1 7 » 1+87___________________ 15 cross p r i v a t e o m é i i i t i k v é i í i é é k t t u ¿ufcAëWT T>5U. Áft¿ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANCE T E R MI N A L QUARTER in itia l 1-83 2-63 3-8 3 1-83 19.6 2-83 38.1 59.5 3-83 37.4 47.2 35.9 4-83 41.6 49.8 45. 1 54.9 4-83 L—84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-65 4-65 1-86 2-86 3-66 4-86 1-87 2-87 426.3 4 81.3 519.7 579.6 663.0 47.0 54.8 53.3 62.0 71.0 38.0 42.0 38.0 38.7 31.2 0.7 3-84 32.5 34.8 30.3 29.0 21.3 2.2 6 64.2 670.3 3.7 4-84 27. 1 28.2 23.7 21.3 14. 1 - 0.2 -0.7 -5.0 1-05 21.8 22. 1 17.5 14.7 8.0 -3.7 -5.1 -9.2 -1 3.3 2-85 20.2 20.2 16.1 13.5 7.7 - 1.8 -2.4 -4.3 -4.0 6.3 3-85 16.9 1 6.6 12.6 10.0 4.7 -3.5 -4.3 - 6.2 - 6.6 -3.1 -11.7 4-85 16.7 16.4 12.8 10.5 5.9 -l.l -1.3 -2.3 -1.7 2.6 0.7 14.9 1— 86 1 7. 1 16.9 13.6 11.6 7.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.6 7.0 7.3 18.2 2-86 15.6 15.3 12.2 10.2 6.5 l.l l.l 0.8 1.8 5. 1 4.6 o • «0 1-64 2-84 661.6 3-86 13.6 1 3.2 10.2 8.3 4.9 - 0.1 - 0.2 -0.7 - 0.1 2.3 1.5 5.1 4-86 1 2.7 1 2.2 9.5 7.6 4.4 - 0.2 - 0.2 -0.7 - 0.1 1.9 1.2 1-87 13.4 13.1 10.5 8.9 6.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.5 4.7 4.5 2-87 12.7 12.4 9.9 8.4 5.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.4 4.3 4.1 3-07 12.2 11.8 9.5 8.0 5.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.5 4.2 4-82 1-03 2-93 3-Ö3 4-S3 1-84 2-Ö4 3-84 4-84 1-83 638.6 IN IT IA L 646.4 628.6 650.8 683.4 21.6 O 4-82 B I L L 1UNS OP OOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES quarter -2.3 679.4 660.8 2.1 -6.5 -10.5 4.0 1.4 -4.5 -5.6 -0.4 7.4 6.0 2.4 4.0 12.2 26.3 6.6 5.2 2.2 3.4 8.5 13.3 1.6 3.9 6.1 4.9 2.3 3.3 7.1 9.6 2.2 2-65 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-66 3-86 4— 86 1-87 660.2 699.9 702.6 2.8 707.4 2-0 1 OlMRIErft PREPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE “BANK UH S T . L U U I S OECEHBER 17» 1967_________________________ _______________ CROSS P R I V A T E DOMEST I C I N V E S T ME N T I N 1982 OOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ß l L L T Ö N S OF 1 CD V* <*> T E R MI N A L ________________ ________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER________________ ____________________________________________________ DOLLARS ................... ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 1-87 2-87 4-86 4— 65 1-86 2-86 3-66 2-85 1-85 4-82 1-03 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 4 27.1 1-83 19.1 2-83 41.9 68.9 3-83 39.5 51.0 35.0 4-83 41.2 49.4 40.5 486.9 524.8 577.2 46.3 655.2 1-84 45.8 53.4 48.6 55.9 66.0 2-84 37.4 41.4 35.2 35.3 30.1 2.0 3-04 32.0 34.2 28.2 26.6 20.6 2.8 3.6 4“ 84 26.6 27.8 21.9 19.5 13.6 0.1 - 0.6 -5.0 1-85 21.4 21.7 16.1 13.2 7.5 -3.5 -5.3 -9.4 -1 3.6 2-85 20. 1 20.2 15.2 12.6 7.8 - 1.2 -1.9 -3.7 -3.0 8.9 658.4 664.2 655.7 632.1 645.7 623.2 3-85 16.6 16.3 11.6 9.0 4.5 -3.3 -4.3 - 6.2 - 6.6 - 2.8 -13.2 4-85 16.3 16.1 11.8 9.5 5.6 - 1.0 -1.5 -2.5 -1.9 2.4 -0.7 1 3.5 1-66 16.7 16.4 1 2.6 10.6 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 2.3 6.7 6.0 17.1 20.6 2-86 14.9 14.6 ll.O 9.0 5.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.1 9.2 7.1 -5.1 643.3 6 74.4 665.6 645.0 3-86 12.9 12.5 9.0 7.1 4*1 - 0.6 -0.9 -1.5 -0.9 1.4 —0 . 1 3.5 0.4 -8.5 - 11.6 4-86 11.5 11.0 7.7 5.8 3.0 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 - 0.1 -1.5 1.0 -1.9 -6.5 - 10.1 -8.4 1-87 12.4 1 2.0 9.0 7.3 4.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 l.l 3.1 2.3 5.1 3.5 -0.4 1.2 6.5 28.5 2-87 11.7 11.3 8.5 6.9 4.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 l.l 2.9 2.1 4.6 3.1 - 0. 1 1.2 6.0 14.0 l.l 3-87 11.4 11.0 6.2 6.6 4.5 l.l l.l 0.9 1.4 3.1 2.5 4.6 3.4 0.7 2.0 5.7 10.9 3.0 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4— 15 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 631.0 6 71.6 673.7 5.0 661.9 2 —8 1 11T1II AL QUARTER PEEPAREO F T H r DE RAL Rf c gJ I Vb " B A N * Ut- S I . L U U r S~ D£C€We€* I T » 1967 _____________________________ 16 T w & m k i w i c s m r w u B b i a w i t w u t i ik r n k & d m u a h t ___________________ CO He OU WOED ANNUAL M T f S OF CHANCE______________________ B IL L IO N S O F T E R MI N AL ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUAK TER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS QUARTER ÀNWJXL RAT ES 2-83 3-63 4-63 4-82 1-83 3-64 1-64 2-64 4-64 2-87 4-85 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-87 1-65 3-65 2-65 6 66.1 1-63 -2.2 2-83 1.0 4.3 675.2 680.7 1*8 3.8 3.3 0.6 1.6 0.3 -2.7 1-84 2.9 4.3 4.2 4.7 12.6 2-84 6.3 8.0 9.0 10.9 16.4 1 CD W 3-83 676.1 696.5 735.8 24.6 746.6 3-84 6.2 7.7 6.4 9.7 14.1 14.9 6.0 4-84 6.7 8.0 8.6 9.7 13.1 13.2 6.0 9*9 1-85 7.1 8.3 8.9 9.9 12.6 12.6 6.8 10.3 764.5 764.1 10.7 800.5 7.3 8.4 8.9 9.7 I 1.9 11.8 8.8 9.7 9.6 8.6 8.1 9.2 9.0 10.6 12.7 12.7 10.4 11.5 12.1 12.8 17.i 4-85 8.5 9.5 10.0 10.8 12.6 12.6 10.7 11.7 12.1 12.6 14.6 832.8 857.0 12.1 7.4 8.2 8.6 9. 1 10.5 10.3 6.4 8.8 8.5 8.0 7.6 3.4 -4.6 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.2 10.5 10.2 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.3 5.5 2.4 9.9 3-86 7.4 8. 1 8.4 8.9 9.7 8.2 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.7 5.5 3.4 7.6 5.3 4— 86 7.2 7.8 8.1 6.5 9.4 9.2 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.0 5.1 3.4 6.3 4.5 3.6 1-87 7.0 7.6 7.8 8.2 9.1 8.8 7.4 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.7 5.0 3.6 5.6 4.5 4.1 4.5 2-87 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.3 9. 1 6.6 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2 7.0 5.7 4.6 6.6 5.0 5.9 7.1 9.7 ® A 646.» 1-86 2-06 o • o 2-85 3-85 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.1 6.8 8.6 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 5.6 4.7 6.4 5.7 5.7 6.5 7.5 5.3 4-62 i-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 4-64 1-85 2-85 3-65 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1— 8 f 2 —0 / 3-64^ 867.2 878.5 8 86.3 896.2 917.1 929.0 !H I U A L QUARTER T O F F Ä Ä E D U Y FEDERAL RESERVE BARR Ub S F T L U U I S DECEMBER 1 7» 1967_________________________________________ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF COOOS ANO S E R V I C E S I N 1932 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ö IL L IÖ H S ÖE TE RMI NAL ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS QUARTER 1-67 2-87 4-83 1-85 2- 65 3- 85 4- 85 1- 66 2-66 3-86 4-86 2-83 3- 83 4- 82 1-83 2- 84 3-84 1-84 4-84 649.2 1-83 —6 . 4 2- 63 - 2.8 1.1 3- 83 -1.3 1.4 1.7 4-83 -2.7 -1.4 —2 . 7 650.9 653.6 642.2 - 6.8 653.0 1-84 -0.9 0.6 - 0.2 6.9 2- 84 2.0 3.6 4.5 5.5 1 2. 2 17.7 3-84 2.1 3.6 4.1 4.7 8.9 9.9 660.2 664.5 2.6 693.2 4-84 2.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 7.9 8.3 3.9 5.2 1-85 2.9 4.1 4.5 5.0 7.6 7.7 4.6 5.6 6.0 2-85 3.1 4.2 4.6 5.0 7.1 7.2 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.0 3- 85 4.2 5.3 5.6 6.3 8.3 6.6 6.8 7.9 8.6 10.3 15.7 4-85 4.5 5.6 6.5 8.3 8.5 1-86 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.0 6.3 2-66 3.8 4.6 4.9 5.2 6.5 6.4 3-66 3.7 4.5 4.8 5.0 6.2 4-66 4.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 6.3 7 03. 4 7 12.1 7 38. 6 753.7 7.1 6.0 8.7 9.6 12.0 6.4 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 -0.3 -8.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 2.4 —0 . 6 6.1 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 2.5 0*6 5.4 3.0 6.3 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 3.6 2.4 6.2 5.4 737.6 751.6 7.6 757.2 7.9 771.6 759.6 1-87 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.3 5.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 1.9 0.6 3.0 1.4 0.6 - 6.2 2-87 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 5.2 5.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.1 2.2 1. 1 3.1 2.0 1.7 -1.3 3.6 3- 87 3. 3 3.9 4.1 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 2.2 1.4 3.1 2.1 1.9 0.0 3.2 4— 62 1-87 2- 83 3-63 4-63 1-64 3-¥4 4— 84 1-65 4— §5 1-64 2-»6 2-64 3- n I-&r 7 66. 7 2.6 2- 1 1 PlIrFAR HJ B T F H P W A L R f c Ä Ä f l M M R Ut- S T . D f C W I « 1 7 t 1M T _______________ 17 771.7 LOUIS " W tk S k k L th tò k è ik t i i k k m b ò i ià k i COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T E R MI N A L QUARTER INITIAL 1-83 <0 1 eg 4-82 3-83 4-83 1-84 2- 8* 1-83 4.8 2-83 6.8 8.7 3-83 7.3 8.5 8.2 10.5 11.4 14.6 11.3 12.2 14.3 14.0 10.0 10.3 11.0 9.3 *.0 8.7 6.2 7.5 4-83 1-84 9. 1 10.0 3-8* * - 8* 1-85 ' B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2—6 6 3-86 1-87 2-87 2*3*5.7 2 ***3.2 2*527.9 2*611.8 2 *6 * 2 . 8 9. 1 3-84 8.9 9.6 9.8 10. 1 * — 84 8.5 9.0 9. 1 9.2 7.9 6.0 6.6 5.7 1-85 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.3 5.8 6.1 5.4 5.0 2-85 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.2 8.3 7.2 7.8 7.9 9.0 13.1 3-85 7.8 8. 1 8.0 8.0 7.0 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.2 - 0.2 4-85 7.8 8. 1 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.3 6.5 6.* 6.5 7.0 *.l 8.6 1-86 7.9 8. 1 8.1 8. 1 7.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.* 5.5 8.5 8. * 2-86 7.9 8. 1 8.1 8.0 7.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.5 6.1 8.3 8.1 2*691.1 2 *728.6 2*762.2 2 *8 * 8 . * 2*0*7.2 2*906.6 2*966.0 3*022.* 7.8 ► 3-86 7.5 7. 7 7.6 7.5 6.9 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.6 5.3 6.7 6.1 *.9 2. 1 4-86 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.2 6.6 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.1 *.9 6.0 5.3 *.3 2.6 3.1 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.* 5.5 6.* 6.0 5.* *.6 5.9 7.3 *-86 2 *395.* 2-84 1-87 ™ 7.4 3*038.2 3*061.6 3*125.9 8.7 2-87 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 *.8 5.6 5. 1 *.* 3.6 *.l *.6 0.6 3*130.6 3-87 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.4 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.2 5.9 5.6 5.1 *.6 5.2 5.9 *.5 8.5 4-82 1-55 3-33 4-93 1-64 2- 8* 3-0* * - 8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1— 8 r Z-8f 3*195.3 IN IT IA L (JUARItR PREPARED B T FfcDtRAI T- Rt ' St KVE— BAHR. 01- S T . T . 0 U I S DECEMBER l i t 1987 DI S POSABL E PERSONAL INCOME I N 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHAM6 E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------B IL L IO N S OF T E R MI N A L _________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1—87 2-8 7 *-86 1-86 2-86 3-86 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-83 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 *-82 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-6* 2*288.* 1-83 2.2 2-03 3.1 *.0 3-03 3.5 *. 1 2*311.1 2*335.* *.3 2*392.7 *-83 5.1 6. 1 7.2 10.2 1-0* 6.0 6.9 7.9 9.8 9.* 2-8* 5.2 5.8 6.3 7.0 5.* 1.6 2 ***6.9 2 *456.6 2**79.2 3-84 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 *.8 2.7 3.7 *-8* 4.7 5. 1 5.3 5.5 *.3 2.7 3.3 2.8 1-85 4.4 4.7 *.8 *.8 3.8 2.* 2.7 2.2 1.7 5. 1 5.2 5.3 *.6 3.6 *.1 *.3 5.0 8.5 2 **96.3 *.8 3-85 4.0 4.2 *.3 *.3 3.* 2.5 2.6 2.* 2.2 2.5 -3.1 *-85 4.1 * .2 *.3 *.3 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 0.6 * .* 1-86 *.3 4.5 *.5 *.6 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 * .1 2.7 5.8 2-86 *.6 4.7 *.8 *.8 *.3 3.8 *.1 *.1 *.3 4.9 *.0 6.5 7.5 7.8 3-86 *.2 *.3 *.3 *.3 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.* 3.5 3.9 3.0 *.5 ^•6 3.3 3.6 CD 1 2*506.8 2*558.* 2*538.2 2 *565.5 2 *610.5 7.2 2*660.2 -1.0 2*653.2 2*656.7 *-86 3.9 4. 1 * .l *.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.* 2.5 3.7 3.6 2.* -0.3 1-87 3.9 4.0 *.0 *.0 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.6 3.* 2.5 0.7 1.6 2.7 2-87 3.* 3.5 3.* 3.* 2.9 2.* 2.5 2.* 2.3 2.* 1.7 2.* 2.1 l.l -0.6 -o .* - 0.8 -*.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.* 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 2.* 1*6 0.* 0.8 0.9 0.0 *.5 * -e ? 1-83 2-83 3-83 *-83 1- 8 * 2 - 8* 3-8* * - 8* 1-85 2-85 3— 85 4-83 1-86 2 —8 6 3-86 *— 86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 0.5 2*67*.6 2 *6*5.5 2*67*.? T U I U A L LHJARI fcK F U E F A K fc U BT FED ER AL R ESER VE BAN* OF S T . LO U TS DECEMBER 17* 1987 ______________________________________ 18 c w o i u f é ^ ò ^ i f i i? l è i u m * COKPOUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE T ERMI NAL QUART ER INITIAL *-82 1—83 2-83 3-83 *-63 1- 8 * 2- 6 * 1-83 26.* 2-83 *7.3 71.7 3-83 *9*5 62*5 4-83 37*5 *1.* 28*3 7*0 1- 8* 35*5 37*9 28.2 17*0 2 7* 9 2-8* 28*1 28.* 19.* 9*8 11*2 3— 8* 19.0 17.8 9.2 0*3 -1*9 — 1 *• 0 - 2 3 * 5 * - 8* 15.5 1*.0 6*5 - 1*0 -2*9 -11*5 3-8* *-64 1-65 " QUARTER 2-85 3-65 *-65 1-86 2-66 3-66 *-66 1-67 2- 8 7 110 *6 126*6 53*9 1* 1*0 1*3.* 152*5 -3.* 151*2 -15*2 1-85 7.8 5.7 -I ** - 8.* 2-85 7.* 5.5 -0*7 -6*7 - 8*8 - 1**8 - 1 7 * 5 1* 1 ** 139*2 - 6*1 - 1 1* 2 - 1 9 * 0 - 2 3 * 6 - 2 3 * 6 -15*3 123*6 -37*6 -19*6 1 2**6 3.9 129*7 3-85 8*2 6.6 1.1 —*• 1 -5*6 -10*2 -11*5 -8*3 -9*0 10.1 16.7 *-85 8.8 7.3 2.* -2*1 -3*2 -7*0 -7*6 -*.0 -3.* 11.0 16*0 1-86 *.6 3.0 -1*7 -6*0 - 7 . 3 -11*0 - 12*0 -9*9 - 1 0*7 -2.2 -*.l 2-86 **7 3*1 - I . 1 -5*0 -6.2 -9*3 - 10*1 -8*0 -8*3 -0 .« -2*0 -7*5 -17*2 *.7 3-86 6. 1 *.8 0*9 -2*6 -3* 5 —6 . 1 -6.* -*.0 -3*7 3.5 3.* 0.* -*.l 16*0 26*5 *-86 6.5 5*3 1*6 -1*6 -2*2 -*.6 -*.7 -2.* -1*9 *.7 *.9 2*6 -0*3 1**7 20*0 12*2 1 3*** 15*3 1 20*9 -13*1 -3**5 1 22*3 130*2 13**0 129*0 1-87 5.1 3.9 0*5 -2* 5 -3*2 -5.* -5*6 -3.6 -3*3 2^2 1*9 -0** -3*2 6*7 7.* -1*8 -l**l 2-87 5.8 *•7 1*5 -1.3 -1*8 -3*6 -3*8 -1*6 -I.* 3.8 3*6 2*1 0*0 6*9 10*0 *.* 0*7 18*2 3-87 6*7 5.7 2*7 0*2 -0*3 -2*0 -1*9 0*1 0*7 5*7 5*9 *•6 3*2 11*3 12*6 9 *0 7*9 21* 0 23*9 *-82 1-83 2-83 3-03 *-83 1-0* 2-8* 3-0* * - 8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-»6 1-5 ! 1- 8 f ♦ NATI ONAL ■ B I L L I 0 H 5 OF DOLLARS T WKUAL R A T E S 134.5 1*1*9 I NCOME BAS I S PR E PA RE ö B T H r U b K A L DECEMBER 17* 1987 RESERVE BANK OF S T . HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1984-87:11 are published in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business* Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical T a b l e s * For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 LOUIS ---------- ' I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S MANUFACTURI NG AND TRADE SEA S ONA LL Y ADJUS TED 72 .68 68 .64 64 . 60 60 .56 56 . 52 52 48 44 40 36 . 36 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 I 1986 SOURCE: * BE61NNING IN SHADED A R E A S L A T ES T 1982, I NVENTORY DATA REFLECT REPRESENT DATA P L OT T E D : PERIODS OF B U S I N E S S CHANGES IN E S T I M A T I O N U.S.DEPARTMENT 1987 OF COMMERCE PR OC EDUR ES . RECESSIONS. OCTOBER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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