View PDF

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

OCTOBER 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
The Cyclical Behavior
Of Inflation
Financial markets continue to reflect concern about
an increase in the rate of inflation. News about inflation
is closely monitored for any suggestion that the rate of
price increase might be accelerating. Perhaps the most
closely watched indicator of inflation is the pace of
economic activity, because of the common perception
that inflation is procyclical. That is, many believe that
periods of sustained and relatively rapid growth in real
output are also periods of relatively high inflation. Thus,
news indicating that real output is continuing to expand
rapidly is often taken as a harbinger of higher inflation
and, conversely, impending economic weakness is taken
to mean inflation is likely to slow. The trouble is, a
positive cyclical relationship between inflation and real
output growth is hard to isolate in the data.
The chart below provides a simple illustration of the
cyclical behavior of inflation. To construct the chart,
long-run or trend movements in both real gross domestic
product (RGDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI)
inflation are first removed by subtracting a 21-quarter
centered moving average from the data. In the case of
real output growth, most economists agree that long-run
movements are due to changes in the rates of produc­
tivity improvement and labor force growth. Over the
long term, the rate of growth of the money supply
dictates the rate of inflation, so that the trend rate of
inflation is almost wholly due to monetary policy. For
both measures, the deviations from trends therefore
represent cyclical movements in the data once these
powerful secular forces have been taken into account.
These cyclical movements are plotted in the chart using

quarterly data from 1954 to 1991; to obtain a clearer
picture of cyclical movements, however, these deviations
have also been smoothed using a five-quarter centered
moving average.
One of the most notable features of the data in the
chart is that inflation shows a clear countercyclical pattern
over much of the era (for example, 1968 through 1980)
and no clear pattern over much of the remainder of the
period. Some of the plotted cyclical movements, but not
all, could be accounted for by oil price shocks which
would tend to reduce output and simultaneously cause
an increase in prices. Oil shocks were clearly important
for subsequent movements in inflation and output growth
in 1973 and 1979, for instance. At other times, such as
1960 to 1968, inflation seems to display little cyclical
movement at all. Thus, while current inflation may be
rising, this evidence suggests that it is not because
inflation follows any clear procyclical pattern.
—James B. Bullard

The Cyclical Behavior of Inflation
Percentage points

Quarterly data

Notes: Both rates are deviation from trend, smoothed. Shaded areas represent
periods of business recessions.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-93

3.4
3.7

3.4

3.4

3.1

3.4

6-93

2.9

2.5

2.5

1.7

2.7

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

8-93

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

11-93

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

7-94

6-94

0.8

7-93

5-94

4.3

5-93

4-94

2.5

4-93

3-94

4.3

3-93

2-94

3.3

143.2
143.5
144.0
2.5

144.3
144.4
144.6
145.0
145.1
145.6
146.0
146.3
146.3
146.7

3-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

1.6

5-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

6-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.9

3.3

7-94

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

8-94

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.1

4.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




*

147.2
147.4

2.5

147.7
148.1
148.6
149.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 13, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

2-93

3.5

3-93

3.1

2.6

4-93

2.9

2.6

2.6

5-93

4.2

4.4

5.3

8.0

6-93

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

-3.3

7-93

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

0.0

8-93

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

11-93

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

12-93

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

1-9«

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

2-94

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

3-94

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

4-94

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

5-94

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.8

2.3

2.5

4.3

6-94

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.8

1.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.4

7-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.6

2.1

3.2

3.6

4.6

4.7

6.0

8-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.3

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.5

3.5

3.9

4.7

4.8

5.5

5.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

139.6
139.9
140.2
141.1
140.7
140.7
141.2
141.6
142.3
142.6
143.3
143.1
142.7
1.7

142.9
143.0
143.5
143.9
144.6
145.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 13, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

2-93

2.9

9.6

4-93

2.3

5.3

1.2

5-93

0.0

1.2

-2.8

-1.1

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

-1.0

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

-2.0

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-2.3

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

0.4

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

7-94

-4.6

10-93

6-94

-7.8

9-93

5-94

0.0

8-93

4-94

-5.6

7-93

3-94

-6.7

6-93

2-9«

-3.4

3-93

1-94

103.9
104.7
104.8
104.2
103.7
103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5

11-93

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

-9.9

12-93

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-2.0

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-0.4

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7

3-94

-0.1

0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4.7

4-94

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

104.1
-4.5

103.7

5-94

-1.1

-0.9

-1.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.1

-2.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.8

-3.8

-7.8 -11.0

6-94

-1.0

-0.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.9

-0.9

-0.2

0.3

-2.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.7

-2.6

-4.9

-5.1

1.2

7-94

0.3

0.5

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.0

1.8

2.5

0.3

1.6

3.0

5.2

2.3

1.7

3.9

12.3

24.6

8-94

1.2

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.1

2.2

3.1

3.8

2.0

3.4

4.8

7.0

4.9

4.9

7.4

14.3

21.6

18.6

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




102.7
102.8
104.7
106.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 13, 1994

3

P roducer P rice Index - F inished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

2-93

3.9
4.6

4.4

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982 = 100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

2.9

4-93

5-93

4.9

3-93

4-93

5.9

124.8
125.1
125.7

5-93

3.4

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.6

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

1.3

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-0.3

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

-9.2

9-93

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

-1.0

11-93

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

-0.1

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

125.7
125.1
125.1
124.1
124.3
124.2
124.3
-1.0

124.2

1-94

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.2

-1.3

-0.7

-0.8

1.0

0.7

1.3

1.5

3.9

2-94

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

4.9

3-94

0.7

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

0.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.4

3.6

3.4

1.9

4-94

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.3

1.0

0.0

5-94

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.9

1.5

0.3

-0.5

-1.0

6-94

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.0

7-94

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.6

2.9

5.9

8-94

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.1

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.5

3.1

4.5

6.9

7.9

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




124.6
125.1
125.3
125.3
125.2
125.2
125.8
126.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 9, 1994

4

Civilian E m p loym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

126

t-----1
-----1
---------- 1 -----r
-----1

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-95

1-94

2-94

5-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94
118,442

2-93

2.7

3-93

2.0

1.2

4-93

1.4

0.7

0.2

5-93

2.6

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

2-94

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

3-94

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.5

-2.1

118,562
118,585
119,180
119,187
119,370

......

V

119,692
119,568

A <v
-

119,941

V

120,332
-tY

120,661
121,971

15.8

122,258
122,037

4-94

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

5.0

5-94

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.5

2.2

2.0

4.2

5.4

6-94

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.1

5.0

5.0

0.9

0.4

1.5

0.5

-4.2

7-94

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

0.8

0.4

1.0

0.4

-2.0

0.2

8-94

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.2

5.2

5.1

1.7

1.5

2.2

2.0

1.0

5.7

7.2

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-95 12-95

1-94

2-94

5-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




122,338
122,872
122,430
122,452
123,166

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 2, 1994

Payroll E m ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

65

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

Thousands of
Persons
5-94

6-94

7-94
109,856

2-93

4.1

3-93

1.7

-0.6

4-93

2.2

1.3

109,804
3.2

110,096

5-93

2.2

1.6

2.7

2.1

6-93

1.9

1.4

2.1

1.5

1.0

7-93

2.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

1.9

2.8

110,285
110,372
110,628

8-93

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.9

0.9

9-93

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

10-93

2.0

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.1

11-93

2.1

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.8

12-93

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.7

1-94

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2-94

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.3

3-94

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

4.1

4-94

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5-94

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.5

2.7

6-94

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.4

4.1

7-94

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.2

3.4

2.7

8-94

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.2

2.9

2.9

2.3

1.9

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




110,714
110,923
111,112
111,366
111,610
111,711
111,919
112,298
112,699
112,951
113,334
113,585
113,764

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 2, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

2-93

2.0

0.1

4-93

2.7

2.1

4.2

5-93

2.6

2.2

3.3

2.5

2.1

2.8

2.2

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.5

3-94

4-94

1.5

5-94

6-94

Thousands of
Persons
7-94

3.5

8-93

2-94

2.0

7-93

1-94

2.4

6-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

3.9

3-93

8-93

86,532
86,541
86,835
87,004
87,147
87,396
87,507

9-93

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.9

10-93

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.1

11-93

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

12-93

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.1

1-94

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.0

2-94

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.9

3-94

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.6

4.3

4-94

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

5-94

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

6-94

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.5

7-94

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.8

3.1

8-94

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

2.6

2.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

87,717
87,867
88,085
88,312
88,383
88,592
88,903
89,193
89,432
89,758
89,990
90,144

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 2, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Initial Month
Persons
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Thousands of
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

2-93

4.7

3-93

0.7

-3.1

4-93

0.4

-1.6

-0.1

5-93

0.6

-0.7

0.5

1.0

6-93

-0.1

-1.3

-0.7

-0.9

-2.8

7-93

0.0

-0.9

-0.4

-0.5

-1.3

0.4

8-93

-0.2

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-0.5

-1.3

9-93

-0.2

-0.9

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

10-93

0.1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0

2.0

11-93

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.3

2.0

1.9

12-93

0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.4

0.9

1-94

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.6

2-94

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.7

-0.1

3-94

0.6

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

3.6

4-94

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.1

4.7

5.8

5-94

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

3.3

3.2

0.7

6-94

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.9

7-94

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.8

2.6

1.5

2.0

1.0

8-94

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.3

1.5

1.7

1.1

1.3

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

23,324
23,263




23,261
23,281
23,225
23,232
23,207
23,206
23,245
23,281
23,298
23,328
23,327
23,395
23,506
23,519
23,576
23,595
23,620

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 2, 1994

7

Change in th e E m ploym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Tenainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

«-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

«-89

5.2
5.2

5.3

«.9

5.0

«.7

«.7

«.7

4.«

4.0

«.7

«.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

«.7

«.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

«.6

«.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4.9

3-91

1-93

4.6

2-91

4-92

3.8

1-91

3-92

4.3

«-90

June 1989 = 100
2-92

5.1

3-90

1-92

5.6

2-90

4-91

«.8

1-90

3-91

4.1

102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8

«-91

«.6

«.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

1-92

«.5

«.«

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

2-92

«.«

«.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

«.3

«.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

«-92

«.2

«.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

«.2

«.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

<t.Z

«.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

111.9
112.9
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9

3-93

«.1

«.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

«-93

«.1

«.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-9«

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2-9«

«.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.7

3-89

«-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

118.9
119.9
120.7
121.8

Data are for the last Month of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 26, 199«

8

In d u strial P rod u ctio n
Seasonally Adjusted

1987-100

1988

1989

1990

1991

1987=100

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1987 = 100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94
109.9

2-93

8.0

3-93

4.5

1.1

4-93

4.8

3.3

5.6

5-93

2.2

0.4

0.0

-5.3

110.0
110.5
110.0

6-93

2.7

1.4

1.5

-0.5

4.5

7-93

3.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

5.6

8-93

3.0

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

110.4
110.9
111.1

2.2

9-93

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

3.3

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

6.7

111.3

11-93

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

4.8

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

1-94

4.9

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

4.9

4.6

5.0

4.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

7.1

8.2

8.5

8.0

5.4

111.9
112.8
114.0
114.6
115.0

4.3

3-94

5.2

5.0

5.4

5.3

6.5

6.7

6.8

7.5

8.4

8.8

8.5

6.8

7.0

9.8

4-94

5.0

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.3

7.5

6.9

5.4

5.0

5.3

1.0

5-94

5.0

4.8

5.1

5.1

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.2

7.3

6.9

5.6

5.3

5.7

3.7

6.4

6-94

5.2

5.0

5.3

5.3

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.7

7.3

7.3

6.9

5.9

5.7

6.1

4.9

6.9

7.4

7-94

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.2

6.0

6.1

6.1

6.5

6.9

7.0

6.6

5.6

5.5

5.7

4.7

6.0

5.8

4.2

8-94

5.3

5.2

5.4

5.4

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.7

7.1

7.1

6.8

6.0

5.9

6.2

5.5

6.6

6.7

6.3

8.5

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




115.9
116.0
116.6
117.3
117.7
118.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 16, 1994

9

P erson al In com e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1988

1989

1990

1991

Trillions of Dollars

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

2-93

3.0
5.5

8.3

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
7-94

5.8

4-93

5-93

0.2

3-93

4-93

3,653.2

10.9

3,670.5
3,702.3

5-93

4.4

5.9

5.9

1.2

6-93

2.8

3.5

2.8

-1.1

-3.3

7-93

1.7

2.1

1.1

-1.9

-3.4

-3.6

8-93

3.3

3.8

3.4

1.6

1.8

4.4

13.0

9-93

2.7

3.1

2.6

1.0

1.0

2.5

5.6

3,705.9
3,695.7
3,684.5
3,722.2
-1.2

3,718.4

10-93

2.9

3.2

2.8

1.6

1.6

2.9

5.1

1.4

4.1

11-93

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.0

2.1

3.2

5.0

2.5

4.4

4.6

12-93

3.4

3.8

3.5

2.7

2.9

3.9

5.5

3.7

5.4

6.0

7.5

1-94

2.4

2.6

2.3

1.4

1.4

2.1

3.1

1.2

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-8.1

2-94

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.0

3.2

4.0

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

4.2

18.1

3-94

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.9

4.9

3.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.8

10.4

3.1

4-94

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.4

2.5

3.1

3.9

2.8

3.4

3.2

3.0

1.9

5.4

-0.4

-3.8

5-94

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.6

4.2

4.3

4.2

3.6

6.7

3.2

3.2

6-94

3.2

3.4

3.3

2.7

2.9

3.4

4.0

3.2

3.7

3.6

3.5

2.8

5.2

2.2

1.9

4.8

-0.6

7-94

3.1

3.3

3.1

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.6

4.5

2.0

1.8

3.7

0.4

1.4

8-94

3.2

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.8

3.3

3.8

3.1

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.8

4.5

2.4

2.2

3.7

1.6

2.7

4.0

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




3,730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6
3,741.1
3,793.3
3,803.1
3,790.9
10.6

3,822.9
3,820.9
3,825.2
3,837.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 30, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

120

- ------- ---- ---—
n---- 1--- 1 -----1 1 1 -----i---- [ r
1988

1989

100

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-93
2-93
3-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Millions of
Dollars

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

-8.7

117,898

-10.7 -12.6

116,581

4-93

-1.3

2.7

20.7

5-93

1.0

4.5

14.3

8.3

118,424
119,213

6-93

1.1

3.7

9.7

4.6

1.1

7-93

1.9

4.1

8.8

5.1

3.5

6.0

8-93

2.0

3.9

7.6

4.5

3.3

4.5

2.9

9-93

1.8

3.4

6.3

3.7

2.5

3.0

1.5

0.2

10-93

3.8

5.5

8,3

6.4

6.0

7.3

7.7

10.2

21.3

11-93

3.9

5.4

7.8

6.1

5.8

6.7

6.9

8.3

12.5

4.5

12-93

4.5

5.9

8.2

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.7

9.0

12.0

7.7

1-94

2.8

3.9

5.7

4.2

3.7

4.0

3.7

3.9

4.8

-0.2

2-94

4.1

5.2

7.0

5.7

5.4

6.0

6.0

6.5

7.8

4.7

4.7

1.7

20.7

3-94

5.1

6.2

8.0

6.9

6.8

7.4

7.6

8.3

9.7

7.5

8.2

7.3

20.1

4-94

3.8

4.7

6.2

5.1

4.8

5.2

5.1

5.4

6.1

3.8

3.6

1.9

7.9

2.0 -12.9

5-94

3.4

4.2

5.6

4.5

4.2

4.4

4.3

4.4 1 5.0

2.8

2.6

0.9

5.1

0.4

-7.9

-2.6

6-94

3.6

4.5

5.7

4.7

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.8

5.3

3.5

3.3

2.1

5.7

2.3

-2.9

2.6

8.1

7-94

3.2

4.0

5.1

4.1

3.9

4.1

3.9

4.0

4.4

2.7

2.4

1.3

4.1

1.1

-3.1

0.5

2.1

-3.7

8-94

3.3

4.0

5.1

4.2

3.9

4.2

4.0

4.1

4.5

2.9

2.8

1.8

4.3

1.8

-1.4

1.7

3.1

0.7

5.3

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

119,321
119,905
120,192
120,212
122,158
122,604
11.0

123,679

-2.4 -14.2

122,107
124,034
19.5

125,885
124,443
124,167
124,976
124,588
125,125

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 14, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.60

1.60

t --- 1
--- 1
--- ---

1988

1989

1
--- 1

'

1 T
---- -------- '---- 1 r
----

'
--- 1
--- r

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninai
Month
12-92
1-93

3.7

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

Millions of
Dollars
4-94

5-94

6-94

4.3

2-93

Initial Month
1-93

844,777
3.1

846,950

3-93

4.5

4.6

6.1

4-93

4.3

4.3

4.9

3.7

5-93

3.9

3.8

4.0

3.0

851,123
853,729
2.3

855,316

6-93

3.5

3.3

3.4

2.5

1.8

1.4

7-93

3.3

3.1

3.1

2.3

1.9

1.7

2.0

8-93

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.8

9-93

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.7

10-93

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.7

11-93

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.7

4.1

6.6

12-93

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.4

-1.6

1-94

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.0

3.9

856,313
857,693
858,979
860,885
862,110
866,720
865,584
867,065
5.7

871,110

3-94

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

2.0

2.0

-1.7

4-94

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.7

7.3

5-94

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.3

5.5

6.4

6.6

11.0

14.9

6-94

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.7

4.5

5.5

6.2

6.3

9.1

10.1

5.4

7-94

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.3

5.2

5.7

5.7

7.6

7.8

4.4

3.3

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94




869,873
874,989
885,185
889,100
891,501

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 15, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

TrilHons of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

4-89

1.5

1-90

2.5

3.5

2-90

2.2

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.4

1.4

0.3

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.0

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

0.4

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

3-93

4-93

0.1

1-94

1.0

4-91

2-93

2.2

3-91

1-93

-0.9

4-90

Billions of Dollars
4-92

4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8

1-92

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

3.1

2-92

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.8

2.4

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

4-92

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.4

1.2

2-93

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.5

4-93

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

6.3

1-94

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.8

3.3

2-94

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.6

3.7

4.1

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
2.7

5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

4-89

4.4
4.4

4.8

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

1987 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4.3

1-91

1-92

4.0

4-90

4-91

4.4

3-90

3-91

5.2

2-90

2-91

3.7

1-90

1-91

5.0

110.1
111.5
112.7
113.8
115.0
116.4

2-91

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

2.8

3-91

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.8

2.8

4-91

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.7

1-92

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-92

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

3-92

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

4-92

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

1-93

3.5

3.4

2-93

3.3

3-93

3.2

4-93

3.1

1-94
2-94

117.2
118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1
121.9

2.7

122.9

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.6

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.8

•2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.3

1.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.3

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8 T 2.7
'

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.9

3.1

3.0

2.9 "2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.9

3-89

4-89

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1-90

2-90

123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

2.9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

0.7

1-90

4-89

4,831.8
5.2

4,893.6

2-90

1.8

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.5

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

0.5

0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.5

-2.4

2-91

0.7

0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

1.8

3-91

0.5

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

-0.8

4-91

0.4

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

1-92

0.8

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.3

4.8

2-92

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.0

3.1

3-92

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.7

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.5

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.5

4.5

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

0.2

2-93

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.3

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.9

2.8

4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2

1.5

4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5

3.2

5,207.2

4-93

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.0

4.0

4.8

6.4

1-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.3

2.2

2-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.4

1.8

1.5

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

5,235.7
5,254.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1.8

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94
3,242.0

0.8

1-90

4-89

2.8

3,264.4
3,271.6

2-90

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.6

1.9

1.5

2.1

4-90

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

1-91

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.7

-2.8

2-91

0.4

0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-0.4

2.1

3-91

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.2

1.7

1.3

4-91

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

0.9

0.4

-0.5

1-92

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

5.8

2-92

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.7

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.8

2.8

3.9

4-92

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.8

2.9

3.3

4.2

3.7

4.7

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.7

3.6

1.6

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

2.1

2.6

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.4

2.7

3.2

3.9

4-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.9

4.0

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.7

2-94

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.0

1.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

3,288.4
-2.7

3,265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4
1.7

3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
3-89
4-89

0.4

2-90

-6.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

-5.9

1-90

4-89

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

3-90

-10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-15.4 -17.2 -22.4 -23.7 -24.5 -24.8

2-91

-13.1 -14.3 -18.0 -17.9 -16.5 -12.3

3-91

-10.0 -10.5 -13.2 -12.1

164.2
2.2

165.1

-9.4

-3.8

8.7

15.6

4-91

-7.4

-7.6

-9.6

-8.0

-4.9

0.7

10.9

15.6

15.6

1-92

-4.8

-4.7

-6.1

-4.2

-0.8

4.7

13.7

17.8

18.9

22.4

2-92

-2.6

-2.2

-3.2

-1.2

2.2

7.5

15.4

19.0

20.2

22.6

22.7

171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5

3-92

-2.3

-2.0

-2.8

-1.0

2.1

6.5

12.9

15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

4-92

-0.5

0.0

-0.7

1.3

4.3

8.5

14.4

16.5

16.7

17.0

15.3

11.7

23.8

1-93

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.6

4.4

8.2

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.6

12.7

9.5

14.2

5.3

2-93

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.7

11.8

11.2

10.5

8.3

5.0

6.4

-1.3

-7.6

3-93

0.0

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.7

6.8

10.6

11.5

11.0

10.4

8.5

5.9

7.2

2.1

0.6

9.4

4-93

1.4

1.9

1.6

3.2

5.4

8.4

12.0

13.1

12.8

12.5

11.1

9.3

11.1

8.1

9.0

18.4

28.2

1-94

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.6

5.8

8.5

11.9

12.8

12.5

12.2

11.0

9.4

10.9

8.5

9.3

15.5

18.7

10.0

2-94

2.2

2.6

2.4

3.8

5.8

8.4

11.5

12.3

12.0

11.6

10.5

9.1

10.3

8.2

8.8

13.3

14.7

8.5

7.0

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
536.7

4-89

-3.7

1-90

3.1

10.4

2-90

0.7

2.9

-4.1

3-90

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-2.4

-2.2

-5.1

-5.4 -10.2 -12.7

2-91

-2.5

-2.3

-4.7

-4.8

-7.9

-7.9

-3.0

3-91

-2.6

-2.4

-4.4

-4.4

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

-3.0

4-91

-2.9

-2.8

-4.6

-4.7

-6.5

-6.2

-3.9

-4.4

-5.7

1-92

-2.6

-2.5

-4.0

-4.0

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-0.1

2-92

-1.2

-0.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.8

-1.9

0.4

1.3

2.7

7.2

3-92

-0.7

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

4-92

-0.1

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.8

0.1

2.0

2.9

4.1

6.7

9.1

6.2

1-93

1.0

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

2-93

1.9

2.3

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.0

4.9

5.9

7.2

9.5

11.6

2.7

3.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

550.2
544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8

15.0

531.2
7.5

540.9

9.1

11.3

15.1

560.3

10.7

12.7

15.4

15.6

12.6

14.3

13.9

12.2

16.2

16.5

21.1

14.9

14.9

14.6

15.9

10.9

13.2

13.6

10.0

9.2

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

3-93

2.5

2.9

2.4

2.9

5.6

6.6

7.8

4-93

3.5

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.1

5.1

6.9

7.9

9.2

1-94

3.9

4.4

4.0

4.6

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

2-94

4.2

4.6

4.3

4.8

4.8

5.8

7.4

8.3

9.4

11.0

12.3

12.0

13.0

13.9

13.7

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

11.2

13.0
12.7

12.6
12.4

14.2
13.7

16.0

581.0
597.9
627;.2
643.6
657.9

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

4-89

12.6
10.9

9.8

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

12.1

2-90

2-90

13.1

1-9«

1-90

487.7
501.8
511.1

7.6

508.6

3-90

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-9«

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

6.4

5.1

3.4

2.1

4.1

520.4
519.0

-1.1

544.0

2-91

8.3

7.6

6.7

6.4

9.4

9.3

20.7

3-91

7.3

6.5

5.6

5.2

7.1

6.3

10.2

0.6

4-91

8.0

7.4

6.8

6.6

8.4

8.1

11.4

7.0

13.7

1-92

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

10.0

6.7

9.8

6.1

2-92

7.2

6.7

6.1

5.9

7.1

6.6

8.3

5.3

7.0

3.8

3-92

7.1

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.8

6.4

7.8

5.3

6.6

4.3

3.4

5.3

4-92

7.1

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.9

6.5

7.7

5.6

6.7

5.0

4.6

6.2

7.2

544.8
562.6
571.0
573.1

1.5

580.5
590.7
589.2

1-93

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.7

6.5

4.7

5.4

3.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

-1.0

2-93

6.6

6.1

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.7

5.0

5.7

4.4

4.1

4.7

4.6

3.2

7.7

3-93

5.9

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.5

1.0

2.1

-3.2

4-93

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.7

6.3

5.4

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.8

8.2

8.5

21.7

1-94

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.5

6.1

4.8

5.3

4.4

4.2

4.6

4.4

3.9

5.2

4.3

8.3

-3.5

2-94

6.7

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.5

6.3

6.9

5.8

6.3

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.9

7.4

7.3

11.0

6.1

16.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

555.0

4-89

3.3

1-90

4.4

5.6

2-90

4.8

5.5

5.4

3-90

3.7

3.8

2.9

562.6
570.0
570.7

0.5

557.2

4-9#

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

-1.3

-2.3

-4.1

-7.1 -10.7 -12.2

-9.1

2-91

0.8

0.3

-0.7

-2.1

-3.0

0.2

14.4

539.4
557.8
571.8

3-91

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

4-91

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

4.0

10.0

7.9

5.4

1-92

2.7

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

6.0

6.6

2-92

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

5.9

9.9

8.8

8.3

9.8

13.0

3-92

4.0

4.1

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

4-92

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.4

6.3

9.2

8.4

8.0

8.6

9.3

7.4

6.5

1-93

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

6.9

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

8.8

9.0

11.6

2-93

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

7.6

10.1

9.6

9.4

10.1

10.8

10.3

10.9

13.2

14.9

3-93

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.1

7.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.7

10.2

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.1

7.4

4-93

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.3

10.4

10.0

9.9

10.5

11.1

10.7

11.2

12.4

12.7

11.6

1-94

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

7.0

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.9

10.4

10.9

10.6

10.9

11.8

11.9

10.9

12.7

9.5

2-94

6.9

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.8

9.1

10.9

10.6

10.7

11.2

11.7

11.6

12.0

13.0

13.2

12.8

14.7

14.1

18.9

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6
16.0

707.4
723.6
755.6

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

4-89

0.2

1-90

3.5

7.0

2-90

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.7

3.2

2.3

2.7

4.4

3.0

2-91

2.4

2.8

1.9

2.1

3.1

1.7

0.5

3-91

1.6

1.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

-0.2

-1.7

-3.9

4-91

1.1

1.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.8

-2.1

-3.4

-2.9

1-92

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.4

-1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.5

2-92

0.7

0.8

0.1

o
o

3-89

0.1

-0.8

-1.6

-2.1

-1.5

-0.8

-3.0

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.6

0.1

3.4

4-92

0.9

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.7

-0.1

0.7

0.4

2.1

0.9

1-93

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.8

-1.2

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.5

-5.9

2-93

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.2

-1.3

-2.4

1.2

3-93

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

-1.2

1.1

1.1

4-93

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.6

-1.0

0.7

0.5

-0.1

1-94

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.8

-0.7

-1.3

-2.5

-4.9

2-94

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.7

-0.8

-1.3

-2.1

-3.1

-1.2

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1

Second quarter data are final estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4-89

-3.1

1-90

14.7

35.7

2-90

19.9

33.3

3-90

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

1-91

5.2

6.9

0.7

-7.7

10.0

27.3

2-91

5.4

6.8

1.9

-4.3

8.8

16.4

6.5

3-91

4.4

5.5

1.2

-3.9

6.0

10.0

2.2

-1.9

4-91

4.5

5.5

1.8

-2.4

5.9

8.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

1-92

5.9

6.9

3.8

0.4

7.9

10.7

6.9

7.1

11.9

18.8

2-92

5.4

6.3

3.4

0.4

6.8

9.0

5.6

5.4

7.9

9.3

3-92

0.5

0.9

-2.1

-5.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.9

-5.8

4-92

6.1

6.9

4.6

2.2

7.5

9.2

6.8

6.9

8.7

9.6

6.7

9.9 101.1

1-93

6.3

7.1

5.0

2.9

7.7

9.2

7.2

7.2

8.9

9.6

7.4

9.8

48.4

9.6

2-93

7.8

8.6

6.8

4.9

9.6

11.2

9.5

9.9

11.7

12.8

11.7

14.7

42.3

19.7

30.7

3-93

8.4

9.2

7.5

5.9

10.3

11.8

10.4

10.8

12.5

13.6

12.8

15.4

35.9

19.2

24.4

18.4

4-93

9.9

10.8

9.3

7.9

12.2

13.7

12.6

13.2

15.0

16.3

15.9

18.7

36.1

23.4

28.4

27.4

1-94

8.1

8.8

7.4

5.9

9.7

10.9

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.9

11.0

12.6

25.1

13.8

14.8

10.0

2-94

9.4

10.1

8.7

7.5

11.2

12.4

11.3

11.8

13.1

13.9

13.4

15.1

26.3

16.9

18.4

15.5

14.5

4.7

33.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

354.5
382.6
31.0

409.3
367.5
362.8

-5.0

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7
412.1
412.6

0.5

363.2

-6.8 -10.5 -22.3 -40.0

432.5
442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

37.0
6.0 -17.9

508.2
546.4

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

4-89

14.3
12.9

15.0

1.8

-0.5

5.1

4.2

1-91

9.8

2-91

8.6

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

-9.4 -25.5

4-90

2-91

10.1

3-90

1-91

20.1

2-90

4-90

8.9

1-90

3-90

828.6
867.4
888.5
825.5

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

10.0

7.6

6.8

27.8

36.7

8.6

6.4

5.5

18.5

17.9

1.8

6.4

6.0

3.8

2.6

11.2

8.6

-3.3

4-91

7.8

7.7

6.0

5.3

12.9

11.3

3.9

5.1

20.0

1-92

7.8

7.7

6.2

5.7

12.0

10.6

4.9

6.0

13.8

7.9

2-92

7.2

7.0

5.6

5.1

10.4

8.9

4.1

4.7

9.3

4.3

0.9

3-92

7.4

7.3

6.1

5.6

10.4

9.1

5.1

5.8

9.5

6.2

5.4

863.1
933.2
937.3
-8.0

917.9
960.7
979.1
981.2
10.2

1,005.3

4-92

5.2

4.9

3.7

3.0

6.8

5.3

1.5

1.4

3.4

-0.3

-2.9

1-93

6.8

6.7

5.6

5.2

8.9

7.8

4.6

5.1

7.4

5.1

4.4

5.6

3.3

-4.8 -17.7

957.5
29.8

1,022.0

2-93

5.4

5.1

4.0

3.6

6.7

5.5

2.5

2.6

4.2

1.8

0.6

0.6

-2.5

6.2 -13.2

3-93

5.1

4.9

3.8

3.4

6.2

5.1

2.4

2.5

3.8

1.7

0.7

0.7

-1.5

4.5

-6.2

1.3

4-93

5.3

5.1

4.2

3.8

6.4

5.4

3.0

3.1

4.4

2.6

1.9

2.0

0.5

5.6

-1.4

5.1

9.0

986.6
989.9
1,011.4

1-94

5.6

5.4

4.6

4.2

6.7

5.8

3.6

3.8

5.0

3.5

2.9

3.2

2.1

6.6

1.5

6.9

9.8

10.6

2-94

5.4

5.2

4.4

4.0

6.4

5.5

3.4

3.6

4.7

3.3

2.8

3.0

2.0

5.8

1.5

5.6

7.0

6.0

1.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1,037.3
1,041.4

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

19

B u sin ess P rod u ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

4-89

0.9

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1.8

1982 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

0.0

1-90

1-90

109.7
110.2

2-90

1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

111.1

4-90

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

1.0

1.2

1.1

0.4

1.1

3.3

2-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.4

2.7

2.2

3-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.4

4-91

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.6

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.2

1-92

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.8

5.4

2-92

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.2

1.1

3-92

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.5

3.9

4-92

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.7

3.5

3.1

110.8
110.5
111.4
112.0
112.4
113.0
114.5
114.8
115.9
116.8

1-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.6

1.7

0.7

-1.7

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.4

1.5

0.7

-0.5

0.7

3-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.7

1.8

1.3

0.7

1.9

3.1

4-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

«2.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

3.2

4.5

5.9

1-94

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.3

2.7

2-94

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.9

2.2

1.9

0.0

-2.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94




116.3
116.5
117.4
119.1
119.9
119.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 7, 1994

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

2-90

1-90

3-89

8.1
10.4

12.1

10.6

11.8

13.2

10.8

11.7

12.6

11.3

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of
Dollars
4-93

11.2

3-90

2-91

15.2

2-90

1-91

9.1

1-90

4-90

7.1

4-89

3-90

11.5

2,189.3
2,237.4
2,317.9
2,380.1
2,445.8

4-90

11.3

12.2

13.0

12.3

12.8

14.2

1-91

11.1

11.8

12.3

11.6

11.7

11.8

9.6

2-91

11.1

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.6

11.6

10.3

11.1

3-91

11.6

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.1

13.4

2,528.1
2,586.5
2,655.5
2,754.2

15.7

4-91

11.5

12.0

12.3

11.9

12.0

12.1

11.6

12.4

13.0

10.3

1-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.4

12.8

11.4

12.4

2-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.3

12.6

11.6

12:2

12.1

3-92

11.4

11.8

12.0

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.5

11.8

11.9

11.0

11.2

10.7

4-92

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.4

11.0

11.2

11.3

10.4

10.4

9.8

8.6

8.0

1-93

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.1

11.0

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.0

8.1

2-93

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.2

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.3

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.3

10.0

2,822.6
2,906.5
2,990.4
3,057.5

9.3

3,116.6
3,178.1
3,268.6

11.9

3,304.7

3-93

10.6

10.8

11.0

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.2

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

4.5

4-93

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

6.2

8.0

1-94

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

6.4

7.3

6.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3,368.7
3,423.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0"
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

563.8
568.8
596.5
620.4

1994 March

4575.9

1160.3

3423.9

351.4

3076.1

632.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1160 1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-283.5
-237.0
-224.9
-220.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1
2

1337.4
1380.7

N.A.
N.A.

1513.7
1525.9

N.A.
N.A.

-176.2
-145.1

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Actual
1987

1986

1988

1989

Estimates

1990

1993

1994

1995

$ 1153.2
1408.5

$ 1259.9
1480.0

$ 1354.3
1521.4

$ - 221.2 $ -1 4 9 .8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .4 $ -2 5 5 .3

$ -2 2 0 .1

$ -1 6 7 .1

1991

1992

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( -

$

)

769.1
990.3

$

854.1
1003.9

$

909.0
1064.1

$

990.7
1143.2

$ 1031.3
1252.7

$ 1054.3 $ 1090.5
1323.8
1380.9

Calendar years
National incom accounts
e
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$

827.2
1028.2

$

913.8 $ 972.3
1065.6
1109.0

$ - 201.0

$ -1 5 1 .8

$

$

$ -1 3 6 .6

$ 1059.3
1181.6

$ 1111.4
1274.9

$ 1128.7 $ 1178.3
1331.6
1460.9

$ 1265.7
1507.0

$ -1 2 2 .3

$ -1 6 3 .5

$ -2 0 2 .9

$ -2 4 1 .4

$ -2 8 2 .7

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

844.1
1029.4

$ -1 8 5 .4

917.6 $ 949.7
1071.6
1115.9

$ -1 5 4 .0

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1189.6
1278.1
$_1 64 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B ’s M id-Session Review of the FY1994 Budget (July 14, 1994).
C yclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: O ffice of M anagem ent and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




22

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D eficit( - ) / S u rp lu s(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-89

4.5
3.2

6.7

1.2

2.9

-1.9

4-90

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

5.7

7.7

6.3

8.3

15.2

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

18.5

1-91

3-91

0.5

3-90

2-91

13.3

2-90

1-91

-3.6

1-90

4-90

302.5
312.1
312.5
-4.3

309.1
322.5
12.0

331.8

2-91

3.9

5.2

3.7

4.5

7.6

2.6

-6.1

3-91

2.5

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.8

-0.7

-6.5

-6.8

320.9

4-91

0.9

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.6

-3.4

-8.0

-9.0 -11.1

311.6

1-92

0.9

1.4

0.0

-0.1

0.7

-2.6

-5.9

-5.8

-5.3

0.8

2-92

0.6

1.0

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

-2.6

-5.3

-5.1

-4.5

-1.0

-2.8

3-92

1.4

1.9

0.8

0.9

1.5

-0.7

-2.7

-2.0

-0.7

3.0

4.1

11.6

4-92

1.1

1.5

0.5

0.4

1.0

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.2

1.4

1.6

3.9

1-93

0.2

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-2.2

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-1.2

-1.7

-1.3

-7.1 -10.9

2-93

0.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-2.1

-3.6

-3.2

-2.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.4

-5.3

326.6

312.2
310.0
318.6
-3.2

316.0
-6.4

307.0
-1.6

305.8

3-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.1

-2.7

-4.1

-3.8

-3.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.8

-6.2

-7.1

-5.1

-8.6

4-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.7

-3.5

-3.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

-4.9

-5.3

-3.4

-4.3

0.1

1-94

-1.0

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

-4.0

-3.7

-2.9

-3.3

-3.4

-5.7

-6.2

-5.0

-6.1

-4.8

-9.5

2-94

-1.0

-0.8

-1.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.8

-3.9

-3.7

-3.4

-2.6

-3.0

-3.0

-4.9

-5.2

-4.0

-4.6

-3.2

-4.9

0.0

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

299.0
299.1
291.7
291.7

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label w ith
subscription in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

4-89

16.5
12.0

10.6

3-90

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

4.3

2.2

-1.4

-3.0

2-91

8.0

6.9

4.8

5.1

6.1

3.8

33.6

3-91

8.2

7.2

5.5

5.9

6.9

5.6

20.8

9.5

8.8

7.6

8.3

9.5

9.2

20.8

14.9

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.1

20.4

16.3

20.1

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.7

17.9

14.3

16.0

13.7

1-94

19.4

2-92

4-93

20.8

1-92

3-93

9.2

4-91

2-93

18.0

2-90

1-93

15.0

1-90

Billions of Dollars
4-92

907.3
945.7
3.6

954.0
959.2
10.9

984.4

-5.4 -19.4

932.7
1,002.8
1,025.1
1,074.7
1,123.4
1,145.8

8.2

3-92

9.2

8.7

7.8

8.3

9.1

8.8

14.4

10.9

11.4

8.4

3.3

-1.4

4-92

9.5

9.0

8.2

8.7

9.5

9.3

14.2

11.2

11.6

9.4

6.3

5.3

12.5

1-93

9.1

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.8

12.9

10.2

10.4

8.4

5.9

5.1

8.5

4.6

2-93

8.6

8.2

7.5

7.8

8.3

8.1

11.6

9.2

9.1

7.3

5.1

4.3

6.2

3.2

1.9

3-93

8.1

7.7

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.4

10.6

8.2

8.1

6.4

4.4

3.7

5.0

2.6

1.6

1.3

4-93

8.4

8.0

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.8

10.7

8.7

8.6

7.2

5.5

5.1

6.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

12.6

1-94

7.7

7.3

6.6

6.8

7.2

6.9

9.4

7.5

7.3

5.9

4.3

3.7

4.6

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.9

-4.0

2-94

7.5

7.1

6.5

6.6

7.0

6.7

9.0

7.2

7.0

5.7

4.3

3.8

4.5

3.3

3.0

3.3

4.0

-0.1

4.1

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1,141.8
1,176.0
1,189.2
1,194.8
1,198.6
1,234.6
1,222.0
1,234.2

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1994

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102