Full text of National Economic Trends : December 1994

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DECEMBER 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
Do Increasing Intermediate
Materials Prices Lead To
Higher Consumer Prices?

all, there are 14 turning points depicted. Two things
are worth noting. First, the year-over-year changes in
the CPI and the PPI for intermediate materials move
closely together. Second, there are instances when the
change in intermediate materials prices preceded the
change in consumer prices. Of the 13 previous turning
points indicated, the change in intermediate materials
prices occurred before the change in consumer prices
six times, while it lagged the turning point in consumer
prices only twice. On average, this change in interme­
diate materials prices occurred about six months prior
to the change in the CPI. One should probably not
attach too much importance to this finding, because
increases or decreases in intermediate materials prices
are not always a reliable indicator of future changes in
consumer prices. That intermediate materials prices
can give a false signal of inflation is seen most recently
in 1991, when their sharp acceleration was followed
by a further slowing in the CPI.
— Kevin L. Kliesen

The pace of increase of consumer prices slowed over
the past two months, with the consumer price index
(CPI) increasing at a 1.6 percent annual rate from August
to October, after rising at a 3.3 percent rate from January
to August. This slowing suggests to some analysts
that price pressures have moderated. At the same time,
however, producers’ prices (PPI) for intermediate
materials continue to rise, increasing at a 3.6 percent
rate over the last two months. Although down slightly
from the 4 percent rate of increase posted over the
January-August period, the continued rise in intermediate
materials prices suggests, instead, that the two-month
slowing in the CPI could be temporary. Whether this
discrepancy matters for policymakers depends on the
degree to which price pressures at the inter­
mediate level are eventually passed along to
CPI and Prices for Intermediate Materials
the consumer— if at all.
(year-over-year percent changes)
The PPI for intermediate materials prices
Percent
includes inputs such as textiles, plastics,
40
chemicals, and paper and wood products.
Because intermediate materials are eventually
Intermediate goods
30 processed into finished goods, one might
reasonably expect to see price increases at the
intermediate stage passed along the production
20
process into higher consumer prices. Do
increases in intermediate materials prices in
10
fact lead changes in consumer prices in the near
future? To examine this, the chart plots the
0 year-over-year percent change for each series.
The chart indicates periods when there
appeared to be a marked change in the direction -10
1948
of the rate of increase of consumer prices. In
-

-

1993

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-93
4-93

4.3

5-93

3.4

Initial Month
4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

1982-84=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
144.0

2.5

144.3

6-93

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

144.4
144.6

8-93

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

11-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

3-94

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

1.6

5-94

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

2.5

6-94

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.9

3.3

7-94

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

8-94

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.1

4.1

9-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.3

2.4

10-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.4

1.6

0.8

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




145.0
145.1
145.6
146.0
146.3
146.3
3.3

146.7
147.2
147.4
147.7
148.1
148.6
149.1
149.4
149.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Novenber 16, 1994

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Honth
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

1982-84=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

4-93

2.6

5-93

5.3

8.0

6-93

2.3

2.2

-3.3

7-93

1.7

1.4

-1.7

0.0

8-93

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

11-93

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

12-93

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

1-94

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

2-94

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

3-94

2.1

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

1.7

4-94

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

5-94

2.2

2.2

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.8

2.3

2.5

4.3

6-94

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.8

1.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.4

7-94

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.6

2.1

3.2

3.6

4.6

4.7

6.0

8-94

2.7

2.7

2.3

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.5

3.5

3.9

4.7

4.8

5.5

5.1

9-94

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.7

3.6

4.0

4.6

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.2

10-94

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.0

2.4

3.2

3.4

3.8

3.7

3.8

3.1

2.1

0.0

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

140.2
141.1
140.7
140.7
141.2
141.6
142.3
142.6
6.1

143.3
143.1
142.7
142.9
143.0
143.5
143.9
144.6
145.2
145.7
145.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 16, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth
3-93

Initial Honth
4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

4-93

1.2

5-93

-2.8

-6.7

6-93

-3.8

-6.1

-5.6

7-93

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

9-93

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

-9.9

12-93

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

1982-84=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
104.8
104.2
103.7
103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5
103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7

3-94

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4.7

4-94

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

5-94

-1.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.1

-2.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.8

-3.8

-7.8 -11.0

6-94

-1.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.9

-0.9

-0.2

0.3

-2.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.7

-2.6

-4.9

-5.1

1.2

7-94

< 0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.0

1.8

2.5

0.3

1.6

3.0

5.2

2.3

1.7

3.9

12.3

24.6

<' a

8-94

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.1

2.2

3.1

3.8

2.0

3.4

4.8

7.0

4.9

4.9

7.4

14.3

21.6

18.6

9-94 .

0.5

0.5

0.9

1.4

1.5

2.2

2.8

1.0

2.2

3.4

5.0

3.0

2.7

4.2

8.4

10.9

4.7

-7.6

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.8

0.8

1.5

2.0

0.3

1.3

2.2

3.5

1.6

1.2

2.1

5.0

6.0

0.4

-7.7

-7.7

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

10-94




104.1
-4.5

103.7
102.7
102.8
104.7
106.2
105.5
104.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 16, 1994

P roducer P rice Index - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

4-93

5.9

5-93

2.9

0.0

6-93

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

-9.2

9-93

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

1982 = 100
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1
124.1
124.3

-1.0

124.2

11-93

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

-0.5

-1.2

-1.3

-0.7

-0.8

1.0

0.7

1.3

1.5

3.9

2-94

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

4.9

124.3
124.2
124.6
125.1

3-94

0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

0.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.4

3.6

3.4

1.9

4-94

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.3

1.0

0.0

5-94

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.7

1.2

0.0

-1.0

-1.9

6-94

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.5

1.0

7-94

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.6

3.4

5.9

8-94

0.8

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.1

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.5

3.1

4.9

6.9

7.9

9-94

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.3

2.2

2.6

1.0

-5.5

10-94

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.5

-1.3

-5.6

-5.6

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




125.3
125.3
125.1
125.2
125.8
126.6
126.0
125.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 10, 1994

Civilian E m ploym ent and U n em p loym en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

126

i--- --- 1--- r

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

Thousands of
Persons
2-94

3-94

4-93

0.2

5-93

3.2

6.2

6-93

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

13.8

2-94

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

3-94

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.3

-2.1

4-94

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

3.0

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
118,585

119,180
119,187

%
%

......................

119,692
119,568

%

119,941

\

120,332
120,661
121,971
122,258
122,037
122,338

5-94

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.5

2.2

2.0

4.2

5.4

6-94

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

0.9

0.4

1.3

0.5

-4.2

7-94

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

0.8

0.4

1.0

0.4

-2.0

0.2

8-94

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

1.7

1.5

2.2

2.0

1.0

3.7

7.2

9-94

2.8

3.0

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

2.0

1.9

2.6

2.5

1.9

4.0

5.9

4.6

10-94

3.0

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

2.5

2.4

3.1

3.1

2.7

4.5

6.0

5.3

6.1

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




119,370

122,872
122,430
122,452
123,166
123,628
124,236

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 4, 1994

P ayroll E m p loym en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

65
1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

Thousands of
Persons
2-94

3-94

4-94

4-93

3.Z

5-93

2.7

2.1

6-93

2.1

1.5

1.0

7-93

2.3

1.9

1.9

2.8

8-93

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.9

0.9

9-93

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

10-93

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.1

11-93

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.8

12-93

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.7

1-94

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2 .£

1.9

1.1

2-94

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.3

3-94

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

4.1

4-94

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5-94

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.5

2.7

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
110,096
110,285
110,372
110,628
110,714
110,923
111,112

111,366
111,610
111,711
111,919
112,298
112,699
112,951

6-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.4

4.1

7-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.5

3.7

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.1

8-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.1

3.1

113,334
113,624
113,914

9-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.0

2.9

2.6

10-94

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.1

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




114,162
114,356

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 4, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-93

4.2

5-93

3.3

2.4

6-93

2.8

2.2

2.0

7-93

3.0

2.6

2.7

3.5

8-93

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.5

1.5

9-93

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.9

10-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.1

11-93

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

12-93

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.1

1-94

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.0

2-94

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.9

3-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.6

4.3

4-94

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

4-94

Thousands of
Persons
5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
86,835
87,004
87,147
87,396
87,507
87,717
87,867
88,085
88,312
88,383
88,592
88,903
89,193

5-94

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

6-94

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.5

7-94

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.8

8-94

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.2

9-94

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.0

10-94

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.0

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

89,432
89,758
90,034
90,274
90,497
90,650

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 4, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

4-93

-0.1

5-93

0.5

1.0

6-93

-0.7

-0.9

-2.8

6-93

7-93

8-93

Initial Month
Persons
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94

Thousands of
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
23,261
23,281

23,225

7-93

-0.4

-0.5

-1.3

0.4

8-93

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-0.5

-1.3

9-93

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

10-93

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0

2.0

11-93

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.3

2.0

1.9

12-93

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.4

0.9

1-94

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

23,232
23,207
23,206
23,245
23,281
23,298
1.6

23,328

2-94

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.7

-0.1

3-94

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

3.6

4-94

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.1

4.7

5.8

5-94

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

3.3

3.2

0.7

6-94

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.9

7-94

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.5

1.4

1.8

0.7

8-94

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.5

1.7

2.1

1.6

2.6

9-94

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.3

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.9

1.3

10-94

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.0

1.7

2.1

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




23,327
23,395
23,506
23,519
23,576
23,590
23,640
23,665
23,706

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 4, 1994

7

Change in th e E m ploym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
<♦-89

1-90

5.6

2-90

5.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

June 1989 = 100
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
103.8

5.1

105.1

3-90

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.1

4-91

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

1-92

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

2-92

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

4-93

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-94

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2-94

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.7

3-94

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.3

4-39

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8
111.9
112.9
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.7
121.8
122.8

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 25, 1994

8

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

1987=100

1988

1989

1990

1991

1987=100

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

4-93

0.0

5-93

-1.6

-3.2

6-93

0.4

0.5

4.4

7-93

1.6

2.2

5.0

5.5

8-93

1.7

2.2

4.0

3.8

2.2

9-93

2.0

2.4

3.8

3.6

2.7

3.3

10-93

2.0

2.3

3.5

3.3

2.5

2.7

2.2

11-93

3.1

3.6

4.7

4.8

4.6

5.5

6.6

11.2

12-93

4.0

4.5

5.6

5.8

5.9

6.8

8.1

11.1

1-94

1987 = 100
2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94
111.4
111.1
111.5
112.0
112.2
112.5
112.7
113.7

11.1

114.7

1-94

3.6

4.0

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.4

6.0

7.3

5.4

0.0

2-94

4.1

4.5

5.4

5.6

5.6

6.2

6.7

7.9

6.9

4.8

9.8

3-94

4.7

5.1

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.8

7.4

8.5

7.8

6.8

10.4

10.9

4-94

4.4

4.8

5.5

5.6

5.6

6.1

6.5

7.2

6.4

5.3

7.2

5.8

114.7
115.6
116.6
1.0

116.7

5-94

4.6

5.0

5.7

5.8

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.3

6.6

5.7

7.2

6.4

4.2

7.4

6-94

4.7

5.1

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.2

6.6

7.1

6.6

5.8

7.0

6.4

4.9

6.9

6.3

7-94

4.5

4.9

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.8

6.1

6.6

6.0

5.3

6.2

5.5

4.2

5.2

4.2

2.1

8-94

4.8

5.1

5.7

5.8

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.9

6.4

5.8

6.7

6.1

5.2

6.3

5.9

5.7

9.5

9-94

4.6

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.9

6.2

5.7

5.1

5.8

5.2

4.3

5.0

4.4

3.8

4.7

0.0

10-94

4.7

5.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.8

6.0

6.3

5.9

5.4

6.0

5.5

4.8

5.4

5.0

4.6

5.5

3.6

7.3

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

117.4
118.0
118.2
119.1
119.1
119.8

Revised from 1991




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 15, 1994

9

P erson al In com e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1988

1989

1990

1991

Trillions of Dollars

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

4-93

10.9

5-93

5.9

1.2

6-93

2.8

-1.1

-3.3

7-93

1.1

-1.9

-3.4

-3.6

8-93

3.4

1.6

1.8

4.4

13.0

9-93

2.6

1.0

1.0

2.5

5.6

-1.2

10-93

2.8

1.6

1.6

2.9

5.1

1.4

4.1

11-93

3.1

2.0

2.1

3.2

5.0

2.5

4.4

4.6

12-93

3.5

2.7

2.9

3.9

5.5

3.7

5.4

6.0

7.5

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
9-94
3,702.3
3,705.9
3,695.7
3,684.5
3,722.2
3,718.4
3,730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6

1-94

2.3

1.4

1.4

2.1

3.1

1.2

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-8.1

2-94

3.7

3.0

3.2

4.0

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

4.2

18.1

3-94

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.9

4.9

3.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.8

10.4

3.1

4-94

3.0

2.4

2.5

3.1

3.9

2.8

3.4

3.2

3.0

1.9

5.4

-0.4

-3.8

5-94

3.5

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.6

4.2

4.3

4.2

3.6

6.7

3.2

3.2

10.6

6-94

3.3

2.7

2.9

3.4

4.0

3.2

3.7

3.6

3.5

2.8

5.2

2.2

1.9

4.8

-0.6

7-94

3.1

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.6

4.6

2.0

1.8

3.7

0.4

1.4

8-94

3.2

2.7

2.8

3.3

3.8

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.3

2.8

4.5

2.4

2.2

3.8

1.6

2.7

4.1

9-94

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.4

3.9

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

4.6

2.8

2.7

4.1

2.5

3.6

4.7

5.3

10-94

4.0

3.6

3.7

4.2

4.7

4.2

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.4

5.8

4.4

4.6

6.0

5.2

6.7

8.5

10.7

16.4

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94




3,741.1
3,793.3
3,803.1
3,790.9
3,822.9
3,820.9
3,825.3
3,838.0
3,854.6
3,903.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 23, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

180

160

140

120

100

1

----------- 1----------- T

1988

1989

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month
3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

4-93

20.7

5-93

14.3

8.3

6-93

9.7

4.6

7-93

8.8

5.1

3.5

6.0

8-93

7.7

4.7

3.5

4.8

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

118,424
119,213
1.1

119,321
119,905
3.5

120,252

9-93

6.4

3.7

2.6

3.1

1.7

-0.1

10-93

8.2

6.3

5.9

7.1

7.4

9.4

120,244
19.9

122,074

11-93

7.8

6.1

5.8

6.7

6.9

8.1

12.4

5.3

12-93

8.2

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.7

8.8

11.9

8.2

11.0

1-94

5.7

4.2

3.7

4.0

3.7

3.7

4.7

0.1

-2.4 -14.2

122,604
123,679
122,107

2-94

7.0

5.7

5.4

6.0

6.0

6.4

7.7

4.9

4.7

1.7

20.7

3-94

8.0

6.9

6.8

7.4

7.6

8.2

9.6

7.7

8.2

7.3

20.1

4-94

6.2

5.1

4.8

5.2

5.1

5.3

6.1

3.9

3.6

1.9

7.9

2.0 -12.9

124,034
19.5

125,885
124,443

5-94

5.6

4.5

4.2

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.9

3.0

2.6

0.9

5.1

0.4

-7.9

-2.6

6-94

5.7

4.7

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.7

5.3

3.6

3.3

2.1

5.7

2.3

-2.9

2.6

124,167
8.1

124,976

7-94

5.2

4.2

3.9

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.5

2.9

2.6

1.4

4.3

1.3

-2.8

0.8

2.5

-2.7

8-94

5.7

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.8

5.3

3.9

3.8

2.9

5.6

3.3

0.4

4.0

6.3

5.4

14.2

9-94

5.6

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.8

5.2

4.0

3.8

3.1

5.5

3.4

1.0

4.0

5.8

5.0

9.1

4.2

10-94

6.0

5.2

5.1

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.8

4.7

4.7

4.1

6.3

4.7

2.7

5.6

7.3

7.1

10.6

8.8

13.7

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

9-94

124,688
126,072
126,505
127,864

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 15, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.60

1.60

t— i— '— — '— i— '— — '— r -1— — 1— T
1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth

Hillions of
Dollars

Initial Honth
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
851,123

3-93

6.1

4-93

4.9

3.7

853,729

5-93

4.0

3.0

2.3

6-93

3.4

2.5

1.8

1.4

855,316

7-93

3.1

2.3

1.9

1.7

2.0

8-93

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.0

9-93

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.5

856,313
857,693
859,113
861,176

2.9

10-93

2.7

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.3

11-93

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.6

3.9

6.6

12-93

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.4

-1.6

862,110
866,720
865,584

1-94

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.0

3.9

3-94

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.1

2.0

2.0

-1.7

4-94

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.7

7.3

867,065
5.7

871,110
869,873
874,989

5-94

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.6

4.3

5.5

6.4

6.6

11.0

14.9

6-94

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.7

4.5

5.5

6.2

6.3

9.1

10.1

5.4

7-94

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

5.1

4.9

5.8

6.5

6.6

8.8

9.3

6.6

7.8

8-94

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.1

5.2

5.7

5.5

6.5

7.1

7.3

9.2

9.7

8.1

9.4

11.0

9-94

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.2

5.3

5.7

5.6

6.5

7.0

7.2

8.8

9.1

7.7

8.4

8.7

6.4

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




885,185
889,100
894,689
902,514
907,218

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 16, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
4,898.3

1-90

3.5

2-90

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

0.2

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

4-91

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

0.1

1-92

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

3.1

2-92

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.8

2.4

3-92

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

4-92

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.4

1.2

2-93

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

1.8

3-93

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.5

2.7

4-93

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

6.3

1-94

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.8

3.3

2-94

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.6

3.7

4.1

3-94

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

4.0

3.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
1.0

4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
2.4

5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,365.0

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

5.1

4.3

3.5

2.7

1.9

1.1
1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

5.2

2-90

4.8

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1987 = 100
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
111.5

4.4

112.7

3-90

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

113.8

1-91

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

115.0
5.0

116.4

2-91

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

2.8

3-91

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.8

2.8

117.2

4-91

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.7

1-92

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-92

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

3-92

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

4-92

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

2.7

1-93

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

3.0

3.3

2-93

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.6

3-93

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.3

1.0

4-93

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.3

1-94

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.9

2-94

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.9

3-94

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.4

1.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1
121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1-90

5.2

2-90

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.5

-2.4

2-91

0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

3-91

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

-0.8

4-91

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

1-92

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.3

4.8

2-92

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.0

3.1

1.5

3-92

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.7

2.4

3.2

2.5

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

1-94

4,893.6
4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
1.8

4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3

3.5

4-92

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.5

4.5

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

2-93

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.3

2.4

3-93

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.9

2.8

3.2

5,054.1
0.2

5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5

4-93

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.0

4.0

4.8

6.4

1-94

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.3

2.2

5,207.2

2-94

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.4

1.8

1.5

3-94

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.6

2.9

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.2

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.6

2.6

2.8

4.2

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

5,235.7
5,254.9
5,309.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-90

2.8

2-90

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.9

1.5

4-90

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.7

-2.8

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
3,264.4
3,271.6

2.1

3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.9

2-91

0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-0.4

2.1

3-91

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.2

1.7

1.3

4-91

0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

0.9

0.4

1-92

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

5.8

2-92

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.7

1.7

3-92

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.8

2.8

3.9

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.8

2.9

3.3

4.2

3.7

4.7

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.7

3.6

1.6

3,259.5
3,269.8
-0.5

3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2

2-93

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

2.1

2.6

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.4

2.7

3.2

4-93

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.9

4.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.7

3,439.2
3.9

3,472.2
3,506.2

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2-94

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.0

1.3

3-94

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.3

3.3

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3,546.3
3,557.8
3,586.4

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90
2-90

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

1-94

7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

3-90

-12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-17.2 -22.4 -23.7 -24.5 -24.8

2-91

-14.3 -18.0 -17.9 -16.5 -12.3

3-91

-10.5 -13.2 -12.1

-9.4

-3.8

8.7

15.6

164.2
2.2

165.1
171.2

4-91

-7.6

-9.6

-8.0

-4.9

0.7

10.9

15.6

15.6

1-92

-4.7

-6.1

-4.2

-0.8

4.7

13.7

17.8

18.9

22.4

2-92

-2.2

-3.2

-1.2

2.2

7.5

15.4

19.0

20.2

22.6

22.7

3-92

-2.0

-2.8

-1.0

2.1

6.5

12.9

15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

4-92

0.0

-0.7

1.3

4.3

8.5

14.4

16.5

16.7

17.0

15.3

11.7

23.8

1-93

0.4

-0.2

1.6

4.4

8.2

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.6

12.7

9.5

14.2

5.3

2-93

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.7

11.8

11.2

10.5

8.3

5.0

6.4

-1.3

-7.6

3-93

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.7

6.8

10.6

11.5

11.0

10.4

8.5

5.9

7.2

2.1

0.6

9.4

4-93

1.9

1.6

3.2

5.4

8.4

12.0

13.1

12.8

12.5

11.1

9.3

11.1

8.1

9.0

18.4

28.2

1-94

2.4

2.1

3.6

5.8

8.5

11.9

12.8

12.5

12.2

11.0

9.4

10.9

8.5

9.3

15.5

18.7

10.0

2-94

2.6

2.4

3.8

5.8

8.4

11.5

12.3

12.0

11.6

10.5

9.1

10.3

8.2

8.8

13.3

14.7

8.5

7.0

3-94

2.1

1.9

3.2

5.0

7.3

10.1

10.7

10.3

9.9

8.7

7.2

8.1

6.0

6.1

9.1

9.0

3.2

0.0

-6.5

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

177.5
186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
229.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
550.2

1-90

10.4

2-90

2.9

-4.1

3-90

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-2.2

-5.1

-5.4 -10.2 -12.7

2-91

-2.3

-4.7

-4.8

-7.9

-7.9

-3.0

3-91

-2.4

-4.4

-4.4

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

-3.0

4-91

-2.8

-4.6

-4.7

-6.5

-6.2

-3.9

-4.4

-5.7

1-92

-2.5

-4.0

-4.0

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-0.1

2-92

-0.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.8

-1.9

0.4

1.3

2.7

7.2

15.0

3-92

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

4-92

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.8

0.1

2.0

2.9

4.1

6.7

9.1

6.2

7.5

1-93

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

9.1

11.3

15.1

2-93

2.3

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.0

4.9

5.9

7.2

9.5

11.6

10.7

12.7

15.4

15.6

3-93

2.9

2.4

2.9

2.7

3.8

5.6

6.6

7.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

12.6

14.3

13.9

12.2

4-93

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.1

5.1

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

13.0

12.6

14.2

16.0

16.2

16.5

21.1

1-94

4.4

4.0

4.6

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

12.7

12.4

13.7

14.9

14.9

14.6

15.9

10.9

2-94

4.6

4.3

4.8

4.8

5.8

7.4

8.3

9.4

11.0

12.3

12.0

13.0

13.9

13.7

13.2

13.6

10.0

9.2

3-94

5.1

4.8

5.4

5.4

6.3

7.9

8.7

9.8

11.3

12.5

12.2

13.2

14.0

13.8

13.5

13.8

11.5

11.8

14.4

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.4

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90

12.1

2-90

9.8

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

501.8
7.6

511.1

3-90

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

5.1

3.4

2.1

4.1

2-91

7.6

6.7

6.4

9.4

9.3

20.7

3-91

6.5

5.6

5.2

7.1

6.3

10.2

0.6

4-91

7.4

6.8

6.6

8.4

8.1

11.4

7.0

13.7

1-92

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

10.0

6.7

9.8

508.6
520.4
519.0

-1.1

544.0
544.8
562.6
571.0

6.1

2-92

6.7

6.1

5.9

7.1

6.6

8.3

5.3

7.0

3.8

1.5

3-92

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.8

6.4

7.8

5.3

6.6

4.3

3.4

5.3

4-92

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.9

6.5

7.7

5.6

6.7

5.0

4.6

6.2

7.2

1-93

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.7

6.5

4.7

5.4

3.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

-1.0

2-93

6.1

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.7

5.0

5.7

4.4

4.1

4.7

4.6

3.2

7.7

3-93

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.5

1.0

2.1

-3.2

4-93

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.7

6.3

5.4

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.8

8.2

8.5

573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
21.7

625.2
619.6

1-94

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.5

6.1

4.8

5.3

4.4

4.2

4.6

4.4

3.9

5.2

4.3

8.3

-3.5

2-94

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.5

6.3

6.9

5.8

6.3

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.9

7.4

7.3

11.0

6.1

3-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

Initial Quarter
4-89

16.6

643.9
662.7

6.7

6.4

6.3

6.8

6.7

7.2

6.3

6.7

6.1

6.1

6.7

6.8

6.8

8.2

8.2

11.3

8.1

14.4

12.2

4-89

1 90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89
1-90

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

5.6

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

562.6

2-90

5.5

5.4

3-90

3.8

2.9

4-90

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

-2.3

-4.1

-7.1 -10.7 -12.2

2-91

0.3

-0.7

-2.1

-3.0

0.2

14.4

3-91

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

4-91

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

4.0

10.0

7.9

570.0
0.5

570.7
-9.1

557.2
539.4
557.8
571.8
5.4

579.4

1-92

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

6.0

6.6

2-92

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

5.9

9.9

8.8

8.3

9.8

13.0

3-92

4.1

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

4-92

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.4

6.3

9.2

8.4

8.0

8.6

9.3

7.4

6.5

1-93

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

6.9

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

8.8

9.0

11.6

2-93

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

7.6

10.1

9.6

9.4

10.1

10.8

10.3

10.9

13.2

14.9

588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6

3-93

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.1

7.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.7

10.2

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.1

7.4

4-93

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.3

10.4

10.0

9.9

10.5

11.1

10.7

11.2

12.4

12.7

11.6

1-94

6.4

6.5

6.6

7.0

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.9

10.4

10.9

10.6

10.9

11.8

11.9

10.9

12.7

9.5

2-94

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.8

9.1

10.9

10.6

10.7

11.2

11.7

11.6

12.0

13.0

13.2

12.8

14.7

14.1

18.9

3-94

7.5

7.6

7.8

8.2

9.5

11.3

11.0

11.1

11.6

12.1

12.0

12.5

13.3

13.6

13.4

15.0

14.6

17.2

15.6

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

681.6
707.4

16.0

723.6
755.6
783.5

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
4-89
1-90

7.0

2-90

4.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

1-94

928.1
1.1

930.6

3-90

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

3.2

2.3

2.7

4.4

3.0

2-91

2.8

1.9

2.1

3.1

1.7

0.5

3-91

1.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

-0.2

-1.7

-3.9

4-91

1.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.8

-2.1

-3.4

-2.9

1-92

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.4

-1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.5

2-92

0.8

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.8

-1.6

-2.1

-1.5

-0.8

-3.0

3-92

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.6

0.1

3.4

4-92

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.7

-0.1

0.7

0.4

2.1

0.9

1-93

0.5

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.8

-1.2

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.5

-5.9

2-93

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.2

-1.3

-2.4

1.2

3-93

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

-1.2

1.1

1.1

4-93

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.6

-1.0

0.7

0.5

-0.1

1-94

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.8

-0.7

-1.3

-2.5

-4.9

2-94

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.7

-0.8

-1.3

-2.1

-3.1

-1.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.2

2.9

7.1

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

0.1

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
933.0

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
382.6

1-90

35.7

2-90

33.3

3-90

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

1-91

6.9

0.7

-7.7

10.0

27.3

2-91

6.8

1.9

-4.3

8.8

16.4

6.5

3-91

5.5

1.2

-3.9

6.0

10.0

2.2

-1.9

4-91

5.5

1.8

-2.4

5.9

8.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

1-92

6.9

3.8

0.4

7.9

10.7

6.9

7.1

11.9

18.8

7.9

9.3

409.3

31.0

367.5
362.8

-5.0

385.4
391.5

2-92

6.3

3.4

0.4

6.8

9.0

5.6

5.4

3-92

0.9

-2.1

-5.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.9

-5.8

4-92

6.9

4.6

2.2

7.5

9.2

6.8

6.9

389.6
394.7
412.1
412.6

0.5

363.2

-6.8 -10.5 -22.3 -40.0
8.7

9.6

6.7

432.5

9.9 101.1

1-93

7.1

5.0

2.9

7.7

9.2

7.2

7.2

8.9

9.6

7.4

9.8

48.4

9.6

2-93

8.6

6.8

4.9

9.6

11.2

9.5

9.9

11.7

12.8

11.7

14.7

42.3

19.7

30.7

442.5
473.1

3-93

9.2

7.5

5.9

10.3

11.8

10.4

10.8

12.5

13.6

12.8

15.4

35.9

19.2

24.4

18.4

4-93

10.8

9.3

7.9

12.2

13.7

12.6

13.2

15.0

16.3

15.9

18.7

36.1

23.4

28.4

27.4

493.5
533.9

37.0

508.2

1-94

8.8

7.4

5.9

9.7

10.9

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.9

11.0

12.6

25.1

13.8

14.8

10.0

2-94

10.1

8.7

7.5

11.2

12.4

11.3

11.8

13.1

13.9

13.4

15.1

26.3

16.9

18.4

15.5

14.5

4.7

33.6

3-94

10.0

8.7

7.5

11.0

12.1

11.1

11.5

12.7

13.4

12.8

14.3

23.8

15.6

16.6

14.0

12.9

5.8

20.2

8.1

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

6.0 -17.9

546.4
557.1

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
867.4

1-90

20.1

2-90

15.0

10.1

3-90

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

888.5
825.5
863.1

4-90

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

10.0

7.6

6.8

27.8

36.7

2-91

8.6

6.4

5.5

18.5

17.9

1.8

3-91

6.0

3.8

2.6

11.2

8.6

-3.3

-8.0

4-91

7.7

6.0

5.3

12.9

11.3

3.9

5.1

20.0

1-92

7.7

6.2

5.7

12.0

10.6

4.9

6.0

13.8

7.9

2-92

7.0

5.6

5.1

10.4.

8.9

4.1

4.7

9.3

4.3

0.9

3-92

7.3

6.1

5.6

10.4

9.1

5.1

5.8

9.5

6.2

5.4

4-92

4.9

3.7

3.0

6.8

5.3

l.S

1.4

3.4

-0.3

-2.9

1-93

6.7

5.6

5.2

8.9

7.8

4.6

5.1

7.4

5.1

4.4

5.6

2-93

5.1

4.0

3.6

6.7

5.5

2.5

2.6

4.2

1.8

0.6

0.6

-2.5

6.2 -13.2

3-93

4.9

3.8

3.4

6.2

5.1

2.4

2.5

3.8

1.7

0.7

0.7

-1.5

4.5

-6.2

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7
979.1
981.2
10.2

1,005.3

-4.8 -17.7
3.3

957.5
29.8

1,022.0
986.6
1.3

989.9

4-93

5.1

4.2

3.8

6.4

5.4

3.0

3.1

4.4

2.6

1.9

2.0

0.5

5.6

-1.4

5.1

9.0

1-94

5.4

4.6

4.2

6.7

5.8

3.6

3.8

5.0

3.5

2.9

3.2

2.1

6.6

1.5

6.9

9.8

10.6

2-94

5.2

4.4

4.0

6.4

5.5

3.4

3.6

4.7

3.3

2.8

3.0

2.0

5.8

1.5

5.6

7.0

6.0

1.6

3-94

5.1

4.3

4.0

6.2

5.3

3.4

3.5

4.5

3.2

2.8

3.0

2.1

5.3

1.7

5.0

6.0

5.0

2.2

2.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

1,011.4
1,037.3
1,041.4
1,048.8

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

19

B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1-90

1.8

2-90

2.6

3.3

3-90

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1982 = 100
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
110.2
111.1
110.8

110.5

1-91

1.2

1.1

0.4

1.1

3.3

2-91

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.4

2.7

2.2

111.4
112.0

3-91

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.4

4-91

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.6

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.2

1-92

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.8

5.4

112.4
113.0
114.5

2-92

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.2

1.1

3-92

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.5

3.9

4-92

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.7

3.5

3.1

114.8
115.9
116.8

1-93

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.5

1.6

0.5

-2.0

2-93

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.3

1.4

0.6

-0.7

0.7

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.6

1.7

1.2

0.6

1.9

3.1

4-93

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.4

2.1

1.9

3.2

4.5

5.9

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

3.1

3.9

4.3

2.7

2-94

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.8

2.4

2.2

0.3

-2.0

3-94

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.6

2.2

2.5

2.4

1.2

0.5

3.1

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94




1.9

1.6

1.4

116.2

2.1

116.4
117.3
119.0
119.8
119.2
120.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 9, 1994

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quartar

Billions of
Dollars

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

4-89

9.1

1-98

12.1

15.2

2-90

11.8

13.2

11.2

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
2,237.4
2,317.9
2,380.1

3-90

11.7

12.6

11.3

11.5

4-90

12.2

13.0

12.3

12.8

14.2

1-91

11.8

12.3

11.6

11.7

11.8

2,445.8
2,528.1
2,586.5

9.6

2-91

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.6

11.6

10.3

11.1

3-91

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.1

13.4

15.7

4-91

12.0

12.3

11.9

12.0

12.1

11.6

12.4

13.0

10.3

1-92

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.4

12.8

11.4

12.4

2-92

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.3

12.6

11.6

12.2

12.1

3-92

11.8

12.0

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.5

11.8

11.9

11.0

11.2

10.7

4-92

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.4

11.0

11.2

11.3

10.4

10.4

9.8

8.6

8.0

1-93

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.1

11.0

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.0

8.1

2-93

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.2

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.3

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.3

10.0

11.9

3-93

10.8

11.0

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.2

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

4.5

4-93

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

6.2

8.0

1-94

10.4

10.5

10.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

6.4

7.3

6.7

2-94

10.1

10.2

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.4

9.2

8.7

8.5

8.1

7.6

7.3

7.2

7.0

5.9

6.3

5.5

4.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2,655.5
2,754.2
2,822.6
2,906.5
2,990.4
3,057.5

9.3

3,116.6
3,178.1
3,268.6
3,304.7
3,368.7
3,423.9
3,460.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

563.1
568.8
596.3
620.3

1994 March
June

4575.9
4650.5

1160.3
1192.2

3423.9
3460.2

351.4
359.1

3076.1
3100.6

632.2
633.8

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL G O VER NM EN T B UDGETS
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs , q u a rte rly to ta ls s e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d a t a n n u a l ra te s )

Quarters

Receipts___________
Cyclically
National
adjusted
income accounts
budget
budget

__________ Expenditures__________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Surplus or deficit( - )
National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
- 2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 6 .4
-1 5 2 .0
-1 4 4 .6
-1 9 1 .0

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1160 1
1173.7

1257.9
1319.3

N.A.
N.A.

-1 4 4 .4
-2 0 7 .6
-2 1 3 .6
- 245.8

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6

N.A.
N.A.

1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1992 1
2
3
4

1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

- 279.9
- 284.8
-2 9 3 .9
-272.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-2 8 3 .5
- 237.0
- 224.9
-220.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1
2
3

1337.4
1380.7
1388.5

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1513.7
1525.9
1543.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-1 7 6 .2
-145.1
-155.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Actual
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Estimates
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total budget

Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 $ 1153.2
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8
1380.9
1408.5

$ 1257.2 $ 1354.3
1460.6
1521.4

$ - 221.2 $-149.8 $ -155.2 $-152.5 $-221.4 $-269.5 $-290.4 $-255.3

$-203.4 $-167.1

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1111.4 $ 1128.7 $ 1178.3 $ 1265.7
1028.2
1065.6
1507.0
1109.0
1181.6
1274.9
1331.6
1460.9
$ - 201.0 $-151.8 $ -136.6 $-122.3 $-163.5 $-202.9 $-282.7 $-241.4

Cyclically adjusted budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$ -185.4 $-154.0 $ -166.2 $-164.1 $-177.3

Fiscal years refe r to the bu d ge t year which runs from O ctober 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays in clu d e federal entities that are off-budget.

«

Estim ates from O M B ’s M id-S ession Review of the FY1994 Budget (July 14, 1994).
C yclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals m ay not add due to rounding.
Source: O ffice of M anagem ent and Budget and U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D e fic it(-)/S u r p lu s (+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89
1-90

13.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

312.1

2-90

6.7

0.5

3-90

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

312.5

4-90

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

7.7

6.3

8.3

15.2

12.0

2-91

5.2

3.7

4.5

7.6

2.6

3-91

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.8

-0.7

-6.5

-6.8

320.9

4-91

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.6

-3.4

-8.0

-9.0 -11.1

311.6

309.1
322.5
331.8
-6.1

326.6

1-92

1.4

0.0

-0.1

0.7

-2.6

-5.9

-5.8

-5.3

0.8

2-92

1.0

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

-2.6

-5.3

-5.1

-4.5

-1.0

-2.8

3-92

1.9

0.8

0.9

1.5

-0.7

-2.7

-2.0

-0.7

3.0

4.1

11.6

4-92

1.5

0.5

0.4

1.0

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.2

1.4

1.6

3.9

312.2
310.0
318.6
-3.2

316.0

1-93

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-2.2

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-1.2

-1.7

-1.3

-7.1 -10.9

2-93

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-2.1

-3.6

-3.2

-2.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.4

-5.3

-6.4

-1.6

3-93

-0.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.1

-2.7

-4.1

-3.8

-3.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.8

-6.2

-7.1

-5.1

-8.6

4-93

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.7

-3.5

-3.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

-4.9

-5.3

-3.4

-4.3

307.0
305.8
299.0
0.1

299.1

1-94

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

-4.0

-3.7

-2.9

-3.3

-3.4

-5.7

-6.2

-5.0

-6.1

-4.8

-9.5

2-94

-0.8

-1.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.8

-3.9

-3.7

-3.4

-2.6

-3.0

-3.0

-4.9

-5.2

-4.0

-4.6

-3.2

-4.9

0.0

3-94

-0.1

-0.8

-0.9

-0.7

-1.9

-2.8

-2.5

-2.2

-1.3

-1.5

-1.4

-2.9

-2.8

-1.4

-1.4

0.5

0.6

6.1

12.6

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

291.7
291.7
300.5

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
su b scrip tio n in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

1-90

18.0

2-90

10.6

3.6

3-90

7.7

2.9

2.2

«-90

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

2.2

-1.«

-3.0

2-91

6.9

«.8

5.1

3-90

«-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 «-92

«-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

«-93

1-9«

2-9«

9«5.7
95«. 0
959.2
10.9

98«.«

-5.« -19.«
6.1

3.8

932.7
33.6

1,002.8

3-91

7.2

5.5

5.9

6.9

5.6

20.8

9.2

«-91

8.8

7.6

8.3

9.5

9.2

20.8

1«.9

20.8

1-92

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.1

20.«

16.3

20.1

19.«

2-92

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.7

17.9

1«.3

16.0

13.7

8.2

1,025.1
1,07«.7
1,123.«
1,1«5.8
1,141.8

3-92

8.7

7.8

8.3

9.1

8.8

1«.«

10.9

11.«

8.«

3.3

-1.«

«-92

9.0

8.2

8.7

9.5

9.3

1«.2

11.2

11.6

9.«

6.3

5.3

12.5

1-93

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.8

12.9

10.2

10.«

8.«

5.9

5.1

8.5

«.6

2-93

8.2

7.5

7.8

8.3

8.1

11.6

9.2

9.1

7.3

5.1

«.3

6.2

3.2

1.9

1,176.0
1,189.2
1,194.8

3-93

7.7

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.«

10.6

8.2

8.1

6.«

«.4

3.7

5.0

2.6

1.6

1.3

«-93

8.0

7.«

7.6

8.1

7.8

10.7

8.7

8.6

7.2

5.5

5.1

6.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

12.6

1,198.6

1-9«

7.3

6.6

6.8

7.2

6.9

9.«

7.5

7.3

5.9

«.3

3.7

«.6

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.9

-«.0

2-9«

7.1

6.5

6.6

7.0

6.7

9.0

7.2

7.0

5.7

«.3

3.8

«.5

3.3

3.0

3.3

«.0

-0.1

«.1

3-9«

6.9

6.3

6.«

6.7

6.«

8.6

6.8

6.6

5.«

«.1

3.7

«.3

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.7

0.9

3.5

2.9

«-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

«-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

«-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

«-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

«-93

1-9«

2-9«

1,234.6
1,222.0
1,234.2
1,243.1

Third quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 30, 199«

24