Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1994

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NOVEMBER 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
Do Business Cycles
Affect Real Wages?

behavior of a typical individual’s real wage. Once the
compositional bias is eliminated, however, the studies
find that real wages are strongly procyclical.
The chart provides an illustration of a potential source
of compositional bias over business cycles — teenage
employment as a percentage of adult male employ­
ment. The chart shows that this ratio tends to fall dur­
ing recessions, that is, there are relatively fewer teens
employed during recessions than during expansions.
Since adult males are a larger fraction of those people
still employed during recessions, and their median
earnings are more than twice the median earning of
teenagers, the average wage of all employed indi­
viduals will be inflated during recessions. So, while
the average real wage may not respond to business
cycles, the behavior of individual real wages may be
sensitive to cyclical movements.
— Peter Yoo

Examinations of the average real wage, like the
average business sector real hourly compensation
shown in the chart below, suggest that the average
real wage does not respond to expansions or recessions.
In fact, many economists have accepted the lack of
cyclical variation of real wages as an empirical fact
about the U.S. economy.
One likely explanation for the unresponsiveness
comes from recent studies that suggest average real
wage series misrepresent the behavior of wages over
the business cycle so that the average observed real
wage is less cyclical than an individual’s real wage.
These studies suggest that recessions have differential
effects on low- and high-wage
workers so the composition of
the labor force changes over the
Average Business Sector Real Hourly Compensation
business cycle, introducing a
and Teen-to-Adult Male Employment Ratio
“compositional bias” in average
1987 prices (log scale)
wage statistics. Specifically, if
recessions eliminate more lowwage jobs than high-wage
jobs, the average wage will be
inflated because high-wage
employees will have a greater
weight in the composition of
workers. Conversely, if expan­
sions create relatively more
low-wage jobs, the increased
weight of low-wage jobs
will depress the average real
wage. Thus, the compositional
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
bias introduces a countercyclical
The shaded bars Indicate recessions.
component to aggregate wage
measures, masking the true

Percent

1988

1993

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1982-84=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
143.5

3-93

2.5

4-93

3.4

4.3

5-93

3.1

3.4

6-93

2.5

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

8-93

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

144.0
2.5

144.3
144.4
144.6
145.0
145.1
4.2

145.6

11-93

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

146.0

1-94

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

146.3
146.3
3.3

146.7

3-94

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

1.6

5-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

6-94

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.9

3.3

7-94'

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

8-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.1

4.1

9-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.3

2.4

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




147.2
147.4
2.5

147.7
148.1
148.6
149.1
149.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1982-84=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
139.9

3-93

2.6

4-93

2.6

2.6

5-93

4.4

5.3

8.0

6-93

2.4

2.3

2.2

-3.3

7-93

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

0.0

8-93

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

11-93

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

12-93

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

1-94

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

2-94

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

3-94

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

4-94

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

5-94

2.2

2.2

2.2

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.8

2.3

2.5

4.3

6-94

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.8

1.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.4

7-94

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.6

2.1

3.2

3.6

4.6

4.7

6.0

8-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.3

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.5

3.5

3.9

4.7

4.8

5.5

5.1

9-94

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.7

3.6

4.0

4.6

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.2

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

140.2
141.1
140.7
140.7
141.2
141.6
142.3
142.6
143.3
143.1
142.7
1.7

142.9
143.0
143.5
143.9
144.6
145.2
145.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1982-84=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

3-93

9.6

4-93

5.3

1.2

5-93

1.2

-2.8

-6.7

6-93

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

-5.6

7-93

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

9-93

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

-9.9

12-93

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

3-94

0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4.7

4-94

-0.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

5-94

-0.9

-1.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.1

-2.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.8

-3.8

-7.8 -11.0

6-94

-0.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.9

-0.9

-0.2

0.3

-2.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.7

-2.6

-4.9

-5.1

1.2

7-94

0.5

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.0

1.8

2.5

0.3

1.6

3.0

5.2

2.3

1.7

3.9

12.3

24.6

8-94

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.1

2.2

3.1

3.8

2.0

3.4

4.8

7.0

4.9

4.9

7.4

14.3

21.6

18.6

9-94

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.9

1.4

1.5

2.2

2.8

1.0

2.2

3.4

5.0

3.0

2.7

4.2

8.4

10.9

4.7

-7.6

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

104.7
104.8




104.2
103.7
103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5
103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7
104.1
-4.5

103.7
102.7
102.8
104.7
106.2
105.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1994

3

P roducer P rice Index - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

3-93

2.9

4-93

4.4

5.9

5-93

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1982 = 100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
125.1
125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1

-9.2

124.1

9-93

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

-1.0

11-93

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

-0.2

-0.5

-1.2

-1.3

-0.7

-0.8

1.0

0.7

1.3

1.5

3.9

2-94

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

4.9

124.3
124.2
124.3
124.2
124.6
125.1

3-94

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

0.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.4

3.6

3.4

1.9

4-94

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.3

1.0

0.0

5-94

0.2

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.7

1.2

0.0

-1.0

-1.9

6-94

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.5

1.0

7-94

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.6

3.4

5.9

125.3
125.3
125.1
125.2
125.8

8-94

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.1

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.5

3.1

4.9

6.9

7.9

9-94

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.3

2.2

2.6

1.0

-5.5

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




126.6
126.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 13, 1994

4

Civilian E m ploym en t and U n em p loym en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

126

\ r'S
V

Unemployment Rate (Right Scale)
t —

t—

1—

—

T—

1988

t—

T—

—

1989

t—

r

*

"

1990

• —

i—

r

1991

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

3-93

1.2

4-93

0.7

0.2

5-93

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

13.8

Thousands of
Persons
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

118,562
118,585
119,180
119,187
119,370
119,692
vr

119,568
119,941

%■

120,661
121,971

2-94

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

3-94

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.3

-2.1

4-94

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

3.0

5-94

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.5

2.2

2.0

4.2

5.4

6-94

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

0.9

0.4

1.3

0.5

-4.2

7-94

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

0.8

0.4

1.0

0.4

-2.0

0.2

8-94

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

1.7

1.5

2.2

2.0

1.0

3.7

7.2

9-94

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

2.0

1.9

2.6

2.5

1.9

4.0

5.9

4.6

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




120,332

122,258
122,037
122,338
122,872
122,430
122,452
123,166
123,628

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 7, 1994

Payroll E m ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

1988

1989

1990

Millions of Persons

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

3-93

-0.6

4-93

1.3

3.2

5-93

1.6

2.7

2.1

6-93

1.4

2.1

1.5

1.0

7-93

1.7

2.3

1.9

1.9

6-93

7-93

8-93

Initial Month
Persons
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Thousands of
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

109,804
110,096
110,285
110,372
2.8

110,628

8-93

1.6

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.9

0.9

9-93

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

10-93

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.1

11-93

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.8

12-93

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

110,714
110,923
111,112
111,366
2.7

111,610

1-94

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2-94

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.3

3-94

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

4.1

4-94

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

111,711
111,919
112,298
112,699

5-94

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.5

2.7

6-94

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.4

4.1

7-94

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.5

3.7

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.1

8-94

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.3

2.9

2.6

9-94

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.0

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.5

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




112,951
113,334
113,624
113,870
114,109

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 7, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

Thousands of
Persons
86,541

3-93

0.1

4-93

2.1

4.2

5-93

2.2

3.3

2.4

6-93

2.1

2.8

2.2

2.0

7-93

2.4

3.0

2.6

2.7

3.5

2.3

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.5

1.5

9-93

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

10-93

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.1

11-93

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

12-93

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.1

1-94

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.0

2-94

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.9

3-94

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.6

4.3

4-94

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

5-94

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

8-93

5-94

86,835
87,004
87,147
87,396
87,507
87,717

2.9

87,867
88,085
88,312
88,383
88,592
88,903
89,193
89,432

6-94

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.5

7-94

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.8

89,758

8-94

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.3

2.8

9-94

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.2

2.9

3.0

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

90,034
90,243
90,467

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 7, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Initial Month
Persons
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Thousands of
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
23,263

3-93

-3.1

4-93

-1.6

-0.1

5-93

-0.7

0.5

1.0

6-93

-1.3

-0.7

-0.9

-2.8

7-93

-0.9

-0.4

-0.5

-1.3

0.4

8-93

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-0.5

-1.3

9-93

-0.9

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

10-93

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0

2.0

11-93

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.3

2.0

1.9

12-93

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.4

0.9

1-94

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.6

2-94

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.7

-0.1

3-94

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

3.6

4-94

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.1

4.7

5.8

5-94

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

3.3

3.2

0.7

6-94

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.1

18

2.9

7-94

0.8

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.5

1.4

1.8

0.7

8-94

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.6

2.4

1.6

1.8

1.3

1.9

9-94

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.1

1.4

1.6

1.1

1.3

0.8

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

23,261




23,281
23,225
23,232
23,207
23,206
23,245
23,281
23,298
23,328
23,327
23,395
23,506
23,519
23,576
23,590
23,627
23,642

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 7, 1994

7

Change in th e E m ploym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1-90

5.6

2-90

5.3

5.1

3-90

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

June 1989 = 100
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2

1-91

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.1

4-91

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

1-92

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

108.4
109.7
110.8
111.9
112.9

2-92

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

4-93

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-94

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2-94

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.7

3-94

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.3

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9
3.4

118.9
119.9
120.7
121.8
122.8

Data are for the last nonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 25, 1994

In d u stria l P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

"I----- 1----- 1----- ----- 1----- [

1988

1989

I --------- 1----- 1-----r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

3-93

1.1

4-93

3.3

5.6

5-93

0.4

0.0

-5.3

6-93

1.4

1.5

-0.5

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1987 = 100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94
110.0

110.5
110.0
4.5

110.4

7-93

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

5.6

8-93

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

2.2

9-93

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

6.7

11-93

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

1-94

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

4.6

5.0

4.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

7.1

8.2

8.5

8.0

5.4

4.3

3-94

5.0

5.4

5.3

6.5

6.7

6.8

7.5

8.4

8.8

8.5

6.8

7.0

9.8

4-94

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.3

7.5

6.9

5.4

5.0

5.3

1.0

5-94

4.8

5.1

5.1

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.2

7.3

6.9

5.6

5.3

5.7

3.7

6.4

6-94

5.1

5.4

5.4

6.3

6.4

6.5

7.0

7.5

7.6

7.2

6.2

6.2

6.7

5.6

8.0

9.7

7-94

5.1

5.3

5.3

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.7

7.2

7.2

6.9

5.9

5.8

6.2

5.3

6.7

6.9

4.2

8-94

5.3

5.5

5.5

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.8

7.3

7.3

7.0

6.2

6.2

6.5

5.9

7.1

7.4

6.3

8.5

9-94

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.9

6.0

6.0

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.3

5.5

5.4

5.6

4.9

5.7

5.5

4.1

4.1

0.0

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




110.9
111.1
111.3
111.9
112.8
114.0
114.6
115.0
115.9
116.0
116.6
117.5
117.9
118.7
118.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1994

P erson al In com e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

-i

r

-----(----- 1---------- 1----- 1----- 1---------- 1----- 1

1988

1989

|

1990

Trillions of Dollars

i----- 1----- 1---------- 1----- 1----- 1----- ----- 1----- 1----- 1---------- 1----- 1----- r

1991

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

3-93

5.8

4-93

8.3

10.9

5-93

5.9

5.9

1.2

6-93

3.5

2.8

-1.1

-3.3

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
8-94
3,670.5
3,702.3
3,705.9

3,695.7

7-93

2.1

1.1

-1.9

-3.4

-3.6

8-93

3.8

3.4

1.6

1.8

4.4

13.0

9-93

3.1

2.6

1.0

1.0

2.5

5.6

-1.2

10-93

3.2

2.8

1.6

1.6

2.9

5.1

1.4

4.1

11-93

3.4

3.1

2.0

2.1

3.2

5.0

2.5

4.4

4.6

12-93

3.8

3.5

2.7

2.9

3.9

5.5

3.7

5.4

6.0

7.5

1-94

2.6

2.3

1.4

1.4

2.1

3.1

1.2

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-8.1

2-94

3.8

3.7

3.0

3.2

4.0

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

4.2

18.1

3,684.5
3,722.2
3,718.4
3,730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6
3,741.1
3,793.3

3-94

3.8

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.9

4.9

3.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.8

10.4

3.1

4-94

3.2

3.0

2.4

2.5

3.1

3.9

2.8

3.4

3.2

3.0

1.9

5.4

-0.4

-3.8

3,803.1
3,790.9

5-94

3.7

3.5

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.5

3.6

4.2

4.3

4.2

3.6

6.7

3.2

3.2

10.6

6-94

3.4

3.3

2.7

2.9

3.4

4.0

3.2

3.7

3.6

3.5

2.8

5.2

2.2

1.9

4.8

-0.6

7-94

3.3

3.1

2.6

2.7

3.2

3.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.2

2.6

4.5

2.0

1.7

3.6

0.2

8-94

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.8

3.2

3.8

3.1

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.7

4.4

2.3

2.1

3.6

1.4

2.4

3.7

9-94

3.4

3.2

2.8

2.9

3.3

3.9

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

4.4

2.6

2.5

3.8

2.2

3.2

4.2

4.7

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94




3,822.9
3,820.9
1.1

3,824.4
3,835.9
3,850.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 31, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

180

~t----- 1----- 1---------- 1----- 1----- 1---------- 1----- 1

1988

1989

i

| * * i ----- 1-----r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Millions of
Dollars
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

3-93

-12.6

4-93

2.7

20.7

116,581

5-93

4.5

14.3

8.3

6-93

3.7

9.7

4.6

1.1

7-93

4.1

8.8

5.1

3.5

6.0

8-93

4.0

7.7

4.7

3.5

4.8

3.5

9-93

3.3

6.2

3.5

2.4

2.8

1.2

-1.1

10-93

5.5

8.3

6.4

6.0

7.3

7.7

9.9

22.1

11-93

5.4

7.8

6.1

5.8

6.7

6.9

8.1

12.9

12-93

5.9

8.2

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.7

8.8

12.3

7.7

1-94

3.9

5.7

4.2

3.7

4.0

3.7

3.7

5.0

-0.2

2-94

5.2

7.0

5.7

5.4

6.0

6.0

6.4

7.9

4.7

4.7

1.7

20.7

3-94

6.2

8.0

6.9

6.8

7.4

7.6

8.2

9.8

7.5

8.2

7.3

20.1

4-94

4.7

6.2

5.1

4.8

5.2

5.1

5.3

6.2

3.8

3.6

1.9

7.9

2.0 -12.9

5-94

4.2

5.6

4.5

4.2

4.4

4.3

4.4

5.1

2.8

2.6

0.9

5.1

0.4

-7.9

-2.6

6-94

4.5

5.7

4.7

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.7

5.4

3.5

3.3

2.1

5.7

2.3

-2.9

2.6

8.1

7-94

4.0

5.2

4.2

3.9

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.6

2.8

2.6

1.4

4.3

1.3

-2.8

0.8

2.5

-2.7

8-94

4.3

5.4

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.4

4.5

5.0

3.4

3.3

2.4

5.0

2.6

-0.5

2.9

4.8

3.2

9.4

9-94

4.4

5.4

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.4

4.5

5.0

3.5

3.5

2.6

5.0

2.9

0.4

3.3

4.8

3.7

7.1

4.8

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94

8-94

118,424
119,213
119,321
119,905
120,252
120,143
122,158
4.5

122,604
11.0

123,679

-2.4 -14.2

122,107
124,034
19.5

125,885
124,443
124,167
124,976
124,688
125,628
126,122

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=1001.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

-i---- 1---- 1---- ---- 1---- 1---- 1
1988

---- 1---- 1---- 1

1989

i---- 1---- r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Millions of
Dollars

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

2-93

3.1

3-93

4.6

6.1

4-93

4.3

4.9

3.7

5-93

3.8

4.0

3.0

2.3

6-93

3.3

3.4

2.5

1.8

1.4

7-93

3.1

3.1

2.3

1.9

1.7

2.0

8-93

2.9

2.9

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.0

9-93

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.5

10-93

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.7

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94
846,950
851,123
853,729
855,316
856,313
857,693
859,113
860,885
862,110

11-93

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.6

4.1

6.6

12-93

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.4

-1.6

1-94

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.0

3.9

5.7

3-94

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

2.0

2.0

-1.7

4-94

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.7

7.3

5-94

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.3

5.5

6.4

6.6

11.0

14.9

6-94

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.7

4.5

5.5

6.2

6.3

9.1

10.1

5.4

7-94

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

5.1

4.9

5.8

6.5

6.6

8.8

9.3

6.6

7.8

8-94

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.2

5.4

5.8

5.7

6.7

7.3

7.6

9.6

10.1

8.6

10.2

12.6

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

7-94




866,720
865,584
867,065
871,110
869,873
874,989
885,185
889,100
894,689
903,585

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 17, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annua! rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

1-90

3.5

2-90

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

0.2

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9

0.1

4,880.8

1-92

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

3.1

2-92

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.8

2.4

3-92

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

4-92

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.4

2-93

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.5

2.7

4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
1.2

5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4

4-93

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

6.3

1-94

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.8

3.3

2-94

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.6

3.7

4.1

3-94

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.3

3.6

3.8

3.4

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,359.2

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

5.2

2-90

4.8

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1987 = 100
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
111.5

4.4

112.7

3-90

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

113.8

1-91

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

2.8

3-91

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.8

115.0
116.4
117.2
2.8

118.0

4-91

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.7

1-92

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-92

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1

3-92

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

4-92

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

2.7

1-93

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

3.0

3.3

2-93

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.6

3-93

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.3

1.0

4-93

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.3

1-94

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.9

2-94

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.9

3-94

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.3

1.6

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.4

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1-90

5.2

2-90

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.5

-2.4

2-91

0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

1.8

3-91

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

-0.8

4-91

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

1-92

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.3

4.8

2-92

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.0

3.1

1.5

3-92

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.7

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.5

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4,893.6
4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1

4-92

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.5

4.5

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

0.2

2-93

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.3

3-93

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.9

2.8

3.2

4-93

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.0

4.0

4.8

6.4

1-94

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.3

2.2

2-94

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.4

1.8

1.5

3-94

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.2

2.3

3.1

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

5,056.8
5,086.5

2.4

5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,294.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
3,264.4

1-90

2.8

2-90

1.8

0.9

3,271.6
3,288.4

3-90

1.9

1.5

2.1

4-90

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.7

-2.8

2-91

0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-0.4

2.1

3-91

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.2

1.7

3,265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
1.3

3,269.8

4-91

0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

0.9

0.4

-0.5

1-92

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

5.8

2-92

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.7

3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4

1.7

3-92

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.8

2.8

3.9

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.8

2.9

3.3

4.2

3.7

4.7

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.7

3.6

1.6

2-93

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

2.1

2.6

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.4

2.7

3.2

3.9

4-93

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.9

4.0

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.7

2-94

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.0

1.3

3-94

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.1

3.0

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,583.9

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

1-94

7.1

2-90

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

3-90

-12.0 -20.2 -22.1

4-90

-15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-17.2 -22.4 -23.7 -24.5 -24.8

164.2

189.0

2-91

-14.3 -18.0 -17.9 -16.5 -12.3

2.2

3-91

-10.5 -13.2 -12.1

-9.4

-3.8

8.7

15.6

165.1
171.2

4-91

-7.6

-9.6

-8.0

-4.9

0.7

10.9

15.6

15.6

1-92

-4.7

-6.1

-4.2

-0.8

4.7

13.7

17.8

18.9

22.4

2-92

-2.2

-3.2

-1.2

2.2

7.5

15.4

19.0

20.2

22.6

22.7

3-92

-2.0

-2.8

-1.0

2.1

6.5

12.9

15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

4-92

0.0

-0.7

1.3

4.3

8.5

14.4

16.5

16.7

17.0

15.3

11.7

23.8

177.5
186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7

1-93

0.4

-0.2

1.6

4.4

8.2

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.6

12.7

9.5

14.2

5.3

2-93

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.7

11.8

11.2

10.5

8.3

5.0

6.4

-1.3

-7.6

3-93

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.7

6.8

10.6

11.5

11.0

10.4

8.5

5.9

7.2

2.1

0.6

9.4

4-93

1.9

1.6

3.2

5.4

8.4

12.0

13.1

12.8

12.5

11.1

9.3

11.1

8.1

9.0

18.4

28.2

1-94

2.4

2.1

3.6

5.8

8.5

11.9

12.8

12.5

12.2

11.0

9.4

10.9

8.5

9.3

15.5

18.7

10.0

2-94

2.6

2.4

3.8

5.8 . 8.4

11.5

12.3

12.0

11.6

10.5

9.1

10.3

8.2

8.8

13.3

14.7

8.5

7.0

3-94

2.1

1.8

3.1

5.0

7.3

10.0

10.7

10.3

9.8

8.6

7.1

8.0

5.9

6.0

8.9

8.8

3.0

-0.3

-7.2

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
229.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

1-90

10.4

2-90

2.9

-4.1

3-90

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-2.2

-5.1

-5.4 -10.2 -12.7

2-91

-2.3

-4.7

-4.8

-7.9

-7.9

-3.0

3-91

-2.4

-4.4

-4.4

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

-3.0

4-91

-2.8

-4.6

-4.7

-6.5

-6.2

-3.9

-4.4

-5.7

1-92

-2.5

-4.0

-4.0

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-0.1

2-92

-0.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.8

-1.9

0.4

1.3

2.7

7.2

15.0

3-92

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

4-92

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.8

0.1

2.0

2.9

4.1

6.7

9.1

6.2

7.5

1-93

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

9.1

11.3

15.1

2-93

2.3

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.0

4.9

5.9

7.2

9.5

11.6

10.7

12.7

15.4

15.6

3-93

2.9

2.4

2.9

2.7

3.8

5.6

6.6

7.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

12.6

14.3

13.9

12.2

4-93

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.1

5.1

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

13.0

12.6

14.2

16.0

16.2

16.5

21.1

1-94

4.4

4.0

4.6

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

12.7

12.4

13.7

14.9

14.9

14.6

15.9

10.9

2-94

4.6

4.3

4.8

4.8

5.8

7.4

8.3

9.4

11.0

12.3

12.0

13.0

13.9

13.7

13.2

13.6

10.0

9.2

3-94

4.8

4.4

5.0

5.0

5.9

7.3

8.2

9.2

10.6

11.8

11.4

12.2

12.9

12.6

12.0

11.9

9.0

8.1

7.0

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

550.2
544.5
551.2
-7.7

540.2
522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
669.2

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1-90

12.1

2-90

9.8

7.6

3-90

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

5.1

3.4

2.1

4.1

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

501.8
511.1
508.6
520.4
-1.1

519.0

2-91

7.6

6.7

6.4

9.4

9.3

20.7

3-91

6.5

5.6

5.2

7.1

6.3

10.2

0.6

4-91

7.4

6.8

6.6

8.4

8.1

11.4

7.0

13.7

544.0
544.8
562.6

1-92

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

10.0

6.7

9.8

6.1

2-92

6.7

6.1

5.9

7.1

6.6

8.3

5.3

7.0

3.8

3-92

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.8

6.4

7.8

5.3

6.6

4.3

3.4

5.3

4-92

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.9

6.5

7.7

5.6

6.7

5.0

4.6

6.2

7.2

1-93

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.7

6.5

4.7

5.4

3.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

-1.0

571.0
1.5

573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2

2-93

6.1

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.7

5.0

5.7

4.4

4.1

4.7

4.6

3.2

7.7

3-93

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.5

1.0

2.1

-3.2

4-93

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.7

6.3

5.4

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.8

8.2

8.5

600.2
595.3
625.2

21.7

1-94

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.5

6.1

4.8

5.3

4.4

4.2

4.6

4.4

3.9

5.2

4.3

8.3

-3.5

2-94

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.5

6.3

6.9

5.8

6.3

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.9

7.4

7.3

11.0

6.1

16.6

3-94

6.5

6.3

6.2

6.7

6.5

7.1

6.1

6.6

5.9

5.9

6.4

6.6

6.5

7.8

7.8

10.7

7.3

13.2

9.8

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

619.6
643.9
659.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89
1-90

5.6

2-90

5.5

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94
562.6

5.4

570.0

3-90

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

-9.1

557.2

1-91

-2.3

-4.1

-7.1 -10.7 -12.2

539.4

570.7

2-91

0.3

-0.7

-2.1

-3.0

0.2

14.4

3-91

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

4-91

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

4.0

10.0

7.9

5.4

1-92

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

6.0

6.6

2-92

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

5.9

9.9

8.8

8.3

9.8

13.0

557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1

3-92

4.1

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

4-92

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.4

6.3

9.2

8.4

8.0

8.6

9.3

7.4

6.5

1-93

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

6.9

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

8.8

9.0

11.6

2-93

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

7.6

10.1

9.6

9.4

10.1

10.8

10.3

10.9

13.2

14.9

3-93

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.1

7.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.7

10.2

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.1

7.4

619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6

4-93

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.3

10.4

10.0

9.9

10.5

11.1

10.7

11.2

12.4

12.7

11.6

16.0

1-94

6.4

6.5

6.6

7.0

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.9

10.4

10.9

10.6

10.9

11.8

11.9

10.9

12.7

9.5

2-94

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.8

9.1

10.9

10.6

10.7

11.2

11.7

11.6

12.0

13.0

13.2

12.8

14.7

14.1

18.9

3-94

7.4

7.5

7.6

8.0

9.3

11.0

10.8

10.8

11.3

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.8

13.1

12.7

14.1

13.4

15.5

12.1

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

707.4
723.6
755.6
777.5

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

1-94

1-90

7.0

2-90

<♦.0

1.1

3-90

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

3.2

2.3

2.7

4.4

3.0

2-91

2.8

1.9

2.1

3.1

1.7

0.5

3-91

1.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

-0.2

-1.7

-3.9

4-91

1.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.8

-2.1

-3.4

-2.9

1-92

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.4

-1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.5

2-92

0.8

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.8

-1.6

-2.1

-1.5

-0.8

-3.0

3-92

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.6

0.1

3.4

4-92

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.7

-0.1

0.7

0.4

2.1

0.9

1-93

0.5

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.8

-1.2

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.5

-5.9

2-93

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.2

-1.3

-2.4

1.2

3-93

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

-1.2

1.1

1.1

4-93

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.6

-1.0

0.7

0.5

-0.1

1-94

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.8

-0.7

-1.3

-2.5

2-94

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.7

-0.8

-1.3

-2.1

-3.1

-1.2

3-94

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

2.3

5.9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
-4.9

919.9
917.1
930.3

Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-89

-3.1

1-90

14.7

35.7

2-90

19.9

33.3

3-90

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

1-91

5.2

6.9

0.7

-7.7

10.0

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

354.5
382.6
31.0

409.3
367.5
362.8

-5.0

385.4

27.3

2-91

5.4

6.8

1.9

-4.3

8.8

16.4

6.5

3-91

4.4

5.5

1.2

-3.9

6.0

10.0

2.2

-1.9

4-91

4.5

5.5

1.8

-2.4

5.9

8.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

1-92

5.9

6.9

3.8

0.4

7.9

10.7

6.9

7.1

11.9

18.8

2-92

5.4

6.3

3.4

0.4

6.8

9.0

5.6

5.4

7.9

9.3

3-92

0.5

0.9

-2.1

-5.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.9

-5.8

4-92

6.1

6.9

4.6

2.2

7.5

9.2

6.8

6.9

8.7

9.6

6.7

9.9 101.1

1-93

6.3

7.1

5.0

2.9

7.7

9.2

7.2

7.2

8.9

9.6

7.4

9.8

48.4

9.6

2-93

7.8

8.6

6.8

4.9

9.6

11.2

9.5

9.9

11.7

12.8

11.7

14.7

42.3

19.7

3-93

8.4

9.2

7.5

5.9

10.3

11.8

4-93

9.9

10.8

9.3

7.9

12.2

13.7

12.6

13.2

15.0

16.3

15.9

18.7

36.1

23.4

1-94

8.1

8.8

7.4

5.9

9.7

10.9

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.9

11.0

12.6

25.1

13.8

14.8

10.0

2-94

9.4

10.1

8.7

7.5

11.2

12.4

11.3

11.8

13.1

13.9

13.4

15.1

26.3

16.9

18.4

15.5

14.5

4.7

33.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

10.4

391.5

10.8

389.6
394.7
412.1
412.6

0.5

363.2

-6.8 -10.5 -22.3 -40.0

12.5

13.6

12.8

15.4

35.9

432.5

19.2

442.5
473.1

30.7
24.4

18.4

28.4

27.4

493.5
37.0

533.9

6.0 -17.9

508.2
546.4

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2 8 , 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89
4-89

8.9

1-90

14.3

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
828.6

20.1

867.4

2-90

12.9

15.0

10.1

3-90

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

888.5

4-90

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

9.8

10.0

7.6

6.8

27.8

36.7

2-91

8.6

8.6

6.4

5.5

18.5

17.9

1.8

3-91

6.4

6.0

3.8

2.6

11.2

8.6

-3.3

-8.0

4-91

7.8

7.7

6.0

5.3

12.9

11.3

3.9

5.1

20.0

1-92

7.8

7.7

6.2

5.7

12.0

10.6

4.9

6.0

13.8

7.9

2-92

7.2

7.0

5.6

5.1

10.4

8.9

4.1

4.7

9.3

4.3

0.9

3-92

7.4

7.3

6.1

5.6

10.4

9.1

5.1

5.8

9.5

6.2

5.4

825.5
863.1
933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7
979.1
981.2
10.2

1,005.3

4-92

5.2

4.9

3.7

3.0

6.8

5.3

1.5

1.4

3.4

-0.3

-2.9

1-93

6.8

6.7

5.6

5.2

8.9

7.8

4.6

5.1

7.4

5.1

4.4

5.6

3.3

-4.8 -17.7

957.5
1,022.0

29.8

2-93

5.4

5.1

4.0

3.6

6.7

5.5

2.5

2.6

4.2

1.8

0.6

0.6

-2.5

6.2 -13.2

3-93

5.1

4.9

3.8

3.4

6.2

5.1

2.4

2.5

3.8

1.7

0.7

0.7

-1.5

4.5

-6.2

1.3

4-93

5.3

5.1

4.2

3.8

6.4

5.4

3.0

3.1

4.4

2.6

1.9

2.0

0.5

5.6

-1.4

5.1

9.0

1-94

5.6

5.4

4.6

4.2

6.7

5.8

3.6

3.8

5.0

3.5

2.9

3.2

2.1

6.6

1.5

6.9

9.8

10.6

2-94

5.4

5.2

4.4

4.0

6.4

5.5

3.4

3.6

4.7

3.3

2.8

3.0

2.0

5.8

1.5

5.6

7.0

6.0

1.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

986.6
989.9
1,011.4
1,037.3
1,041.4

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

19

B u sin ess P roductivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1982 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
109.7

4-89

0.0

1-90

0.9

1.8

2-90

1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

1.0

1.2

1.1

0.4

1.1

3.3

2-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.4

2.7

2.2

3-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.4

4-91

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.6

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.2

1-92

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.8

5.4

2-92

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.2

1.1

3-92

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.5

3.9

4-92

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.7

3.5

3.1

1-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.6

1.7

0.7

-1.7

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.4

1.5

0.7

-0.5

0.7

3-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.7

1.8

1.3

0.7

1.9

3.1

4-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

3.2

4.5

5.9

1-94

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.3

2.7

2-94

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.9

2.2

1.9

0.0

-2.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

110.2




111.1
110.8
110.5
111.4
112.0
112.4
113.0
114.5
114.8
115.9
116.8
116.3
116.5
117.4
119.1
119.9
119.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 7, 1994

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-89

4-89

1-90

4-89

9.1

1-90

12.1

15.2

2-90

11.8

13.2

11.2

3-90

11.7

12.6

11.3

2-90

3-90

<*-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Dollars
4-91 1-92 2-92

3-91

Billions of
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
2,237.4
2,317.9
2,380.1

11.5

2,445.8

4-90

12.2

13.0

12.3

12.8

14.2

1-91

11.8

12.3

11.6

11.7

11.8

2,528.1
9.6

2,586.5

2-91

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.6

11.6

10.3

11.1

3-91

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.1

13.4

15.7

4-91

12.0

12.3

11.9

12.0

12.1

11.6

12.4

13.0

10.3

1-92

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.4

12.8

11.4

2,655.5
2,754.2
2,822.6
12.4

2,906.5

2-92

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.3

12.6

11.6

12.2

12.1

3-92

11.8

12.0

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.5

11.8

11.9

11.0

11.2

10.7

9.3

4-92

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.4

11.0

11.2

11.3

10.4

10.4

9.8

8.6

8.0

1-93

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.1

11.0

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.0

8.1

2-93

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.2

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.3

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.3

10.0

11.9

3-93

10.8

11.0

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.2

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

4-93

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

6.2

8.0

1-94

10.4

10.5

10.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

6.4

7.3

6.7

2-94

10.1

10.2

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.4

9.2

8.7

8.5

8.1

7.6

7.3

7.2

7.0

5.9

6.3

5.5

4.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2,990.4
3,057.5
3,116.6
3,178.1
3,268.6
3,304.7

4.5

3,368.7
3,423.9
3,460.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

FEDERAL GO VERNM ENT DEBT
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d E nd o f M o n th T o ta ls
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

563.1
568.8
596.3
620.3

1994 March
June

4575.9
4650.5

1160.3
1192.2

3423.9
3460.2

351.4
359.1

3076.1
3100.6

632.2
633.8

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin-, seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts

Quarters

National
income accounts
budget

Surplus or deficit( - )
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Expenditures
Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273,6
1311.2

-1 6 6 .4
-1 5 2 .0
-1 4 4 .6
-1 9 1 .0

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1160 1
1173.7

1257.9
1319.3

N.A.
N.A.

-1 4 4 .4
-2 0 7 .6
-2 1 3 .6
-2 4 5 .8

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6

N.A.
N.A.

1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1992 1
2
3
4

1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-2 7 9 .9
-2 8 4 .8
-2 9 3 .9
-272.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-2 8 3 .5
-2 3 7 .0
- 224.9
-220.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1
2
3

1337.4
1380.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1513.7
1525.9
1542.5

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-1 7 6 .2
-145.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

N.A.

N.A.
N.A.

N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Estimates

Actual
1986

1987

1988

1989

1890

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit

(- )

$ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 $ 1153.2
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
990.3
1003.9
1323.8
1380.9
1408.5

$ 1257.2 $ 1354.3
1521.4
1460.6

$ - 221.2 $-149.8 $ -155.2 $-152.5 $-221.4 $-269.5 $-290.4 $-255.3

$-203.4 $-167.1

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
$ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1111.4 $ 1128.7 $ 1178.3 $ 1265.7
1028.2
1331.6
1460.9
1507.0
1065.6
1109.0
1181.6
1274.9

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

-)

$ - 201.0 $-151.8 $ -136.6 $-122.3 $-163.5 $-202.9 $-282.7 $-241.4

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures

Surplus or deficit( - )

$ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$ - 185.4 $-154.0 $ -166.2 $-164.1 $-177.3

Fiscal years refer to the b udget year which runs from O ctober 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays in clu d e federal entities that are off-budget.
Estim ates from O M B ’s M id-S ession Review of the FY1994 B udget (July 14, 1994).
C yclica lly adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals m ay not add due to rounding.
Source: O ffice of M anagem ent and Budget and U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce.




22

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D eficit( - )/S u r p lu s (+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89
1-90

13.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

312.1

2-90

6.7

0.5

3-90

2.9

-1.9

312.5

4-90

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

7.7

6.3

8.3

15.2

12.0

2-91

5.2

3.7

4.5

7.6

2.6

-6.1

3-91

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.8

-0.7

-6.5

-6.8

4-91

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.6

-3.4

-8.0

-9.0 -11.1

1-92

1.4

0.0

-0.1

0.7

-2.6

-5.9

-5.8

-5.3

0.8

309.1

-4.3

322.5
331.8
326.6
320.9
311.6
312.2

2-92

1.0

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

-2.6

-5.3

-5.1

-4.5

-1.0

-2.8

3-92

1.9

0.8

0.9

1.5

-0.7

-2.7

-2.0

-0.7

3.0

4.1

4-92

1.5

0.5

0.4

1.0

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.2

1.4

1.6

3.9

1-93

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-2.2

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-1.2

-1.7

-1.3

310.0
11.6

318.6
-3.2

316.0

-7.1 -10.9

307.0

2-93

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-2.1

-3.6

-3.2

-2.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.4

-5.3

-6.4

-1.6

3-93

-0.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.1

-2.7

-4.1

-3.8

-3.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.8

-6.2

-7.1

-5.1

-8.6

4-93

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.7

-3.5

-3.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

-4.9

-5.3

-3.4

-4.3

0.1

1-94

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

-4.0

-3.7

-2.9

-3.3

-3.4

-5.7

-6.2

-5.0

-6.1

-4.8

-9.5

2-94

-0.8

-1.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.8

-3.9

-3.7

-3.4

-2.6

-3.0

-3.0

-4.9

-5.2

-4.0

-4.6

-3.2

-4.9

0.0

3-94

-0.3

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-2.1

-3.0

-2.8

-2.5

-1.6

-1.9

-1.8

-3.3

-3.3

-2.0

-2.1

-0.4

-0.6

4.2

8.6

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

305.8
299.0
299.1
291.7
291.7
297.8

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
su b scrip tio n in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4-91

Billions of Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

1-90

18.0

2-90

10.6

3.6

3-90

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

2.2

-1.4

-3.0

2-91

6.9

4.8

5.1

6.1

3-91

7.2

5.5

5.9

6.9

5.6

20.8

9.2

4-91

8.8

7.6

8.3

9.5

9.2

20.8

14.9

20.8

1-92

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.1

20.4

16.3

20.1

19.4

2-92

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.7

17.9

14.3

16.0

13.7

8.2

3-92

8.7

7.8

8.3

9.1

8.8

14.4

10.9

11.4

8.4

3.3

-1.4

4-92

9.0

8.2

8.7

9.5

9.3

14.2

11.2

11.6

9.4

6.3

5.3

12.5

1-93

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.8

12.9

10.2

10.4

8.4

5.9

5.1

8.5

4.6

2-93

8.2

7.5

7.8

8.3

8.1

11.6

9.2

9.1

7.3

5.1

4.3

6.2

3.2

1.9

3-93

7.7

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.4

10.6

8.2

8.1

6.4

4.4

3.7

5.0

2.6

1.6

1.3

4-93

8.0

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.8

10.7

8.7

8.6

7.2

5.5

5.1

6.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

12.6

1-94

7.3

6.6

6.8

7.2

6.9

9.4

7.5

7.3

5.9

4.3

3.7

4.6

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.9

-4.0

2-94

7.1

6.5

6.6

7.0

6.7

9.0

7.2

7.0

5.7

4.3

3.8

4.5

3.3

3.0

3.3

4.0

-0.1

4.1

3-94

6.9

6.3

6.5

6.7

6.5

8.6

6.9

6.7

5.5

4.2

3.7

4.4

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.8

1.1

3.7

3.4

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

945.7
954.0
959.2
10.9

984.4

-5.4 -19.4
3.8

932.7
33.6

1,002.8
1,025.1
1,074.7
1,123.4
1,145.8
1,141.8
1,176.0
1,189.2
1,194.8
1,198.6
1,234.6
1,222.0
1,234.2
1,244.7

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1994

24