Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1995

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SEPTEMBER 1995

National
Economic
Trends
Seasonal Adjustments:
Why Bother?
Many monthly and quarterly data series have
noticeable seasonal patterns, with peaks and troughs
recurring at the same times each year. For some
series, the source o f the seasonal fluctuation can be
easily explained. Agriculture, construction and utilities’
production, for example, are directly linked to the
weather. Some industries vary production levels
during the year because o f scheduled plant shutdowns
for retooling or maintenance. Major holiday periods
like Christmas also affect production levels.
This seasonal volatility can make it difficult to sep­
arate growth or decline in the economy from a typical
seasonal change. As a result, most published data,
including those in National Economic Trends, are
seasonally adjusted. One notable exception is interest
rate data which show no significant seasonal pattern.
The accompanying chart shows the unadjusted and
seasonally adjusted monthly Index o f Industrial
Production (IIP). The unadjusted data are shown by
the thin line and, as expected, display more variation.
A t first glance, this variation may appear random. But
a closer look at the unadjusted series reveals three
distinct peaks each year, two in the first half and a
larger one in the second half. Removing these seasonal
fluctuations gives a clearer picture o f the health o f
the economy.
In 1990, for example, the unadjusted IIP rose and
fell in the second half o f the year as it usually does.
Was this the normal seasonal drop or was there more
to it? Looking at the seasonally adjusted series, it is
clear that industrial production had decreased beyond
the seasonal norm. This year, like most others, the
unadjusted IIP increased from May to June and then

fell again from June to July. Was this more than the
usual July drop? This time, the seasonally adjusted
data reveal that industrial production was almost flat
from May to June and actually increased slightly from
June to July.
There is no way to isolate the “ true” seasonal
pattern. Thus, seasonal adjustments must be made by
using statistical models. In addition, seasonal patterns
tend to drift over time, so estimates must be updated
regularly. Imperfect estimation and updating of
seasonal patterns make the adjusted data imprecise,
but most economists believe such imprecision is a
reasonable sacrifice to reveal underlying trends in
the data.
— Donald S. Allen
i

Total Industrial Production Index
1987=100
125

120

115

110

105

Not seasonally adjusted
100

"

1990

Tl

I I I I I I I I I

I I I I i l I I I I I "I" I I I I I I I I I I

1991

1992

I I I I I I I I I I I TTT

1993

1994

1995

Note: Shaded area indicates a business recession.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System

National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve

Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



Table o f Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash R o w
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from n/1990 to m/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the n/1990 column and the m/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
1-90

2-90

Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

1.5

4,917.1

3-90

0.3

-0.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




2

4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95

1.0
1.9
2.9
3.2
3.0
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1

2.8
3.9
3.9
3.5
4.2
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.3

5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5

2-95

5.0

5.2

5.3

3-90 4-90

3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9

2.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1

5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.3

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.6

7.1
6.1
5.7
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.4
57
5.8
59
5.9
6.0
5.9

5.2
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.8

5.4

5,6

5.5

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4.9
6.7
6.0
5,5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.6

8.6
6.5
57
5.2
5.7
5.8
60
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.6

4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
S.4




SÊÈÈÈÊÊÈÊÈÊË illlll
3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.6

77
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.4
5.9

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.1
5.6

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

7.2
6.7
6.6
6.1
5.4

6.2
6.3
5.8
5.0

6.4
5.5
4.6

4.7
3.7

2.8

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

3

5,597.9
5,636.8
5.705.9
5,759.9
5,796.6
5,896.8
5.971.3
6,043.6
6.169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6.478.1
6,574.7
6.689.9
6,791.7
6.897.2
6,977.4
7,024.9

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

199 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
—— — - Trend is ten-year moving average of real GDP growth rate
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-3.2
-2.6 -2.1
-1.0
0.0
2.2
-0 5 0.3
1.6
1.0
-0.4
0.3
1 1 0.5
0.1
0.2
0.8
1.4
1.6
1.6
3.1
0.5
0.9
1.4
2.0
2.0
2.3
3.0
2.9
3.5
1.4 2.0
5.7
2.6
2.6
3,0
3.7
3.9
4.6
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.4
2.7
3.2
3.4
1.2
3.2
3.5
1.5
1.9
2.4
2.4
3,0
3.2
1.8
2.6
3.0
3.1
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
1.9 2.3
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.4
3,4
3.6
3.6
3.1
2.0
2.4
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.2
2.2
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
3,5
3.6
3.7
3.3
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.6
37
3.7
3.4
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.3
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-95

JlliiiS!

m
V,

:

V V. -

4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5

■

tl^fWflglff
4,990.5

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.8
35

2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.7

6.3
4.8
4.6
44
4.6
4.2
38

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

4 1
4 1
4.4
4.0
3.4

4.0
4.6
39
3.2

5.1
3.9
2.9

2.7
1.9

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1 .1

5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314,1
5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.1
5,485.2

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

4

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

4.3

1-91

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.0

3.9

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
'

115.0
116.4

'

2.6

3-91

3.7

3.5

2.8

2.8

4-91

3.5

3.3

2.8

2.7

2.7

1-92

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-92

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

2.6
2.8
<1/;

2.0
2.2
2.5
a a

117.2
118.0

118.8

3-92

32

30

27

27

4-92

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

1-93

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2-93

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6
2.8
2.7
A i»

3-93

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

4-93

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

23

22

26

2.6

1.3

2.0

2.7

2.4
oO

30

33

2.5

2:5 m i l -

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8 l l l i l l
2.0
2.2
2.1

1-94

27

26

24

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

¡lf|f§|.

1.3

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

1.9

2.1

2.3

20

1.6

1.3

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

2J

2.0

1.8
1.7

1.7
1.7

1.9

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

2a

2.0

1-95

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1
2.1

2.0
2.0

2.1

2.5

2.2
2.2

2.1

2-95

2.3
24

1.9
1.8
1.9

2.1

2.0

1.9

124 1
29

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




2.1
2.4
2.3

2.0
1.9
1.9

2.7

123.7

1.3

1.7

2.6

123.4

1.1
2.0

3-94

.. ----\

1.0

1.7

4-94

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

- ■

1.9

2.1
2.2
2.2

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

119.9
120.7
121.1
121.9
122.9

'

2-94

3-90 4-90

1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

125.0
125.9
126.5

126.9
127.6

2.2

1.9

1.6

128.1

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
3.5
4.4
53
4.2
4.0
3 1
3.8
3.8
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
3.6
3.6
3.0
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.7
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.1
3 1 3.2
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.1
2.9
30
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
2£
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
n s .3
116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5

iSsss&sss -'k h ' £
5■><■'*

3.4
3.0
3.0
3.2

121.5
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.0
2.8

122.3
3.0
3.5
3.2
2.9

...... ..............

4.0
3.3
2.8

31
2.9
2.9
2*8
2.8
2 8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2q
2,9
2.8
2.8
2.9
28
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8 2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
29
2.9
2.9
a.» 2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.6
2.3

1.9

2.4
2.5
2.8
2.7

2.2 ¡ ¡ l i t :
2.7
2.5
2*8
2.9
2.9
2.7

V

■" / H

f'.

s

2.9
3Ö

3.0
2.9
2.7
2*7
2.9
27
28
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.8
24?
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

- /î'

3.0

s

2.8

3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
„ Q
2.9
2,9
2.8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

..

s V

'

.
r \

123,2
124.4
12542
125.8
126*6
127.5
I2 & 5
129.4
*< 130,3
131.3
132.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Quarter
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93
6.7
____ 1
3.4
5.1
;
pppl p plfllt
2.9
2.4
4.2
’H
..3.9"
3.0
2.7
3 1
\
2.9
3.2
3.4
_ M . 3.1
3.7
3.4
3 1 3.0
3.3
33
3.5
3.7
3*2
3,2
3.4
35
3.7
3.4
30
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.6 ~ 1 6
3.5
3.2
3.9
3,1
3 1 3.2
3 1 3.1
28
2.6
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
33
2.4
3.3
3*0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2*2 ( .
2.8
2-6 2.9
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.3
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.5
2,7
1.9
1.7
3.1
28
2*7
27
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.9 ’ 2 6
2.6
26
1.8
1.6
25
23
22
1.9
2.5
2.3
2.9
2*7
2.6
2*6 2.6
2 A
2.5 :.... /AA........
2.1
2.7
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
23
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
2*7
2.6
2.5 ' 2 .4
2.3 2.4
2*2 2.2
26
2.6
2.9
26
2.6
2.5 “ 2.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.2 ,2 * 2 ' 2,2
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1987=100
3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
117,5
118.5

1'

"i?

. -. . ■

,■.

<f

-<

''■y

■

. ■"

119.2
120.1
121.1
122.1

123.2
123.7
-

2.2
1.7

1.3

2.4

2.5

3.2

3.1

2.3
2.3

2.3

2.6

2.4

3-93 4-93

124,9
125.7
126.4
126.8
127,5
127.9
128.9
129.9

2.0

<139,5
131.2

2.2

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

6

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
PPPP
v, , !
1-94 0.8
2-94 2.1
3.3
3-94 9 9
29
2.5
4-94 2.3
2.8
25
2.5
5-94 2.1
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.6
6-94 2.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
4.1
2.9
7-94 2.6
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.7
6.3
8-94 2.9
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.1
5.0
9-94 2.8 3.1
3.1
3.2
2.4
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.7
2.9
2.9
10-94 2.7
2.9
3.0
3.3
1.6
3.1
3.0
2.0
11-94 2.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.8
2.6
1.9
1.6
1.6
12-94 2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.6
1-95 2.7
2.8
2.9
/ "
2.9
2.9
31
2.7
3.2
4.1
2.9
2.8
2.4
2.4
2-95 2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
32
3-95 2.7
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.8
2.9
2.7
3.0
2.4
2.8
2.5
2.6
4-95 2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.9
3.1
2.9
3.1
2.8
5-95 2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
2.9
3.1
3.5
4.0
3.2
2.9
6-95 2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.9
3.1
2.4
1.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
7-95 2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.7
3.0
3.1
27
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.4
2.0 2.4
2.9

1982-84=100
146.4
146.8
147.1
147.4
147.6
148.1
148.5
149.1
149.4
149.6
149.8
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.3
151.9
152.3
152.5
152.8

12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

-2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)




in
?

Terminal
Month
Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
1-94 5.9
124.9
2-94 4.4
2.9
3-94 2.9
1.4
0.0
4-94 2.2
1.0
0.0
0.0
125.2
5-94 1.6 0.5 -0.3
-1.0
6-94 1.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
125.2
7-94 1.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.9
2.9
8-94 2.3
4.9
1.8
1.6
1.9
2.4
3.6
6.9
9-94 16
1.9
1.4 -3.7
1.1
0.8
1.0
12
1.7
10-94 10
0.2 -0.6 -4.2 -4.7
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
1.7
1.4
7.9
11-94 1.6
1.4 -0.3
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.6
0.7
22
5.9
3.9
12-94 1.8
1.4
1.4
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.2
1.9
5.9
4.9
5.8
1.7
3.1
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.6
1-95 2.1
1.8
1.8
4.9
3.9
1.8
2.9
3.9
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.5
2-95 2.1
1.8
2.7
4.3
3.4
2.0
2.4
1.8
3.2
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.3
2.5
1.9
3-95 2.1
1.9
2.9
4.2
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.0
3.4
1.9
1.8
2.6
2.5
2.9
4-95 2.2
3.8
2.4
2.3
2.5
3.8
2.9
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.0
22
1.8
2.7
1.9
1.9 0.0
5-95 2.0
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
2.3
2.1
6-95 1.9
1.3
1.2
0.9 -0.5 -0.9
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.4
2.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
7-95 1.8
1.1
0.7 -0.3 -0.5
0.9
0.0
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95

1982=100

125.2
125.2
125.1
125.5
126.2
125.8
125.3
126.1
126.5
127.1
127.3
127.5
127.9
127.9
127.8
127.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Benefits
/x

t
\

/

\

y

s s - /

\

)ta l Com pensa tion

\

T<

V

'

v / X

>i
\
\

S

X «
r " x
Wages and Salai ies

\
S

'

.

^ -------

\

\

\

\
N

\
... 1 .... 1

1

1

•

I

'

1990

1989

1

1
1991

1

1

1
1992

1

1

1

i

1

|

i

I

1

1994

1993

1

1

1995

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

107.2
108.4
109.7

110.8

CO
CO

l|p l|fj
2.9
2.9 2.8
11111
3.2 3.4 3.9
3.5 3.6 4.1
4.2
3.5 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.5
3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4
3.4 3.5 3,7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3
3.3 3.2 3.0
3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.4
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3 2 3.1
3 1 3.0 2 6
3.2 3 3 3.3 3.2 3 1 3.1
3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7
2.5 2.3
3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3 1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Data are for the last month of quarter.




June 1989=100

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

CO
CO

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Quarter

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
3.8
4.2 4.6
4.4 4.7 4.9
4.3 4.5 4.5 4.1
4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1
4.0
4.2
4.3 4 2 4.0 4.0 4.0
3.4
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7
3.6 3.6
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6
3.6 3.5
3.8 3.8 3.7
3.6 3.6 3.5
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6
3.5 3.5
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4
3.7 3.6 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.4
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
3.3 3.3
3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

111.9
113.0
113.8
114.6
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9

120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.3
125.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

9

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent
8

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

. •:

u

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.1
14
1.4
1.6
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1

3.3
2.7
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3

3-90 4-90

2.2
1.6
1.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
1.9
2.0

2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2

1-95
110,5
111.4

Ï

112.0
1.1
1.8
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.2

2.5
3.8
3,1
3.1
3.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
2,4
23
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3

112.3
113.0
114.4

*
5.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91




1982=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

18
2.5
2,8
1.6
1.3
1.5
2,0
1.9
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1

114,9
3.2
3.3
1.5
1.2
15
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1

115.8
3.5
0.7
0.6
10
1.8
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.0

-2.0
-0.9
0.2
1.4
14
1.0
1.3
1.7
17
1.8

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

0.3
1.4
2.5
2.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
23

2.4
3,6
3.0
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.5

4.9
3.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.5

1.7
0.2
1.2
1.9
2.0
2.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.3
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.2

3.4
3.7
3.2
3.1

4.1
3.0
3.0

2.0
2.5

3.0

1168
116.2
116.3
117.0
118,4
118.9
118.5
119.5
120.7
121.3
122.2

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

10

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987-100

1987-100

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
1-94 0.0
2-94 4.8
9.8
3-94 6.8 10.4 10.9
4-94 5.3
7.2
5.8
10
4.2
7.4
7.2
6.4
5-94 5.7
6.4
4.9
6.9
6.3
6-94 5.8
7.0
5.2
4.2
2.1
118.2
5.5
4.2
7-94 5.3
6.2
5.7
9.5
5.2
6.3
5.9
6.7
6.1
8-94 5.8
3.4
4.1 -1.0
4.8
4.1
5.1
4.2
9-94 5.0
5.7
3.9
4.5
2.0
5.2
4.3
4.9
10-94 5.0
5.6
5.1
4.3
4.7
5.4
4.1
6.7
5.3
5.0
8.3
5.9
5.5
4.8
11-94 5.3
6.4
6.4
6.7
7.3
9.4 11.6 14.9
6.7
6.4
5.9
6.5
12-94 6.1
5.9
6.5
5.9
5.9
7.8
8.6
8.8
6.4
6.1
5.6
6.1
3.0
1-95 5.9
5.4
5.7
5.3
5.1
6.4
6.7
5.6
5.2
5.6
6.1
2.0
1.0
2-95 5.5
5.9
4.7
4.5
4.9
4.3
5.4
5.1
4.6
5.0
4.2
5.1
5.1
0.0 -1.0
3-95 5.1
1.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
2.7
4.1
3.6
3.9
3.2
2.9
1.8 -1.2 -2.6 -4.3 -7.6
4-95 4.2
4.5
3.2
3.0
3.1
4.2
3.9
3.4
3.6
2.4
25
5-95 4.0
2.8
1.5 *1.0 -2.0 -2.9 -3.9
0.0
3.2
2.6
2.7
3.5
3.1
2.9
6-95 3.7
3.9
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.1 -1.0 -1.8 -2.4 -2.9 -0.5 -1.0
3.5
2.8
2.6
2.6
3.8
3.0
3.1
7-95 3.6
2.0
2.0
0.5
2.0
2.3
1.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.6 -1.7
0.3

1987=100
114.7
115.6
116.6
116.7
117.4
118.0
119.1
119.0
119.5
120.3
121.7
122.0
122.1
122.0
121.2
121.2
121.1
121.3

12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

130

~i--------------------- 1----------1 ‘

1989

1990

i

|

*

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

i---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ---------- --------------------- ---------- ---------- --------------------- ---------- ---------- r

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94
1-94 13.1
2-94 7.9
3.0
3-94 5.1
1.3 -0.5
4-94 4.4
2.4
1.6
1.0
5-94 4.1
2.7
2.0
3.0
1.6
6-94 3.3
1.1 -0.7
1.4
1.1
1.6
7-94 3 0
1.4
0.4
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.2
8-94 3.2
2.0
2.8
4.1
1.8
1.6
2.0
1.6
9-94 3.3
4.4
2.0
2.4
4.3
2.5
3.3
2.1
23
10-94 3.5
3.7
4.7
2.4
2.9
2.8
4.5
2.5
2.8
4.9
4.0
3.7
11-94 3.4
2.4
2.8
2.5
2.8
3.5
2.8
4.0
2.6
3.2
2.7
2.6
3.5
3.4
2.1
12-94 3.2
2.4
2.6
3.0
2.3
1.6
2.4
2.4
3.0
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.8
2.8
1.1
1.6
0.7
1-95 3.0
2.7
3 1 3.3
2.7
2.6
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.9
2.4
2-95 3.2
2.3
2.7
2.5
3.1
2.5
2.9
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.9
2.3
3-95 3.0
2.1
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.5
4-95 2.7
1.3
1.2
12
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.5
0.8
0.2 -0,1 -0.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
5-95 2.1
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.5
15
13
0.9
0.4
6-95 2.1
0.1 -0.1
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
13
0.9
7-95 2.2
0.7
0.5
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94




Thousands of
Persons
1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95

4.8
3.1
1.4
-0.8
-0.3

1.4
-0.3
-2.6
-1.5

-1.9
-4.5
-2.5

-7.0
-2.8
1.6
4.7
0.5 -0.3 *0 8 -0.4
3 I
1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95

121,903
122,208
122,160
122,402
122,703
122,635
122,781
123,197
123,644
124,141
124,403
124,570
124,639
125,125
125,274
125,072
124,319
124,485
124,959

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions

Millions

120

120

115

115

1

1

110

110

*

105

105

i
!
100

100

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
1-94 2.2
2-94 2.6
3.0
3-94 3.6
4.3
5,6
4-94 3.4
3.8
4.3
3.0
5-94 3.3
3.0
3.6
3.8
3.0
6-94 3.3
3.7
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.3
7-94 3.2
2.8
3.4
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.4
8-94 3.3
3.4
3.1
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.6
9-94 3.2
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.Ï
10-94 3.0
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.2
1.8
11-94 3.2
3,4
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
5.3
3.2
3.5
3.3
12-94 3.1
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
37
2.9
1-95 3.1
3.1
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.1
2,0
1.9
3.1
3.2
2.9
2-95 3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
3 1 2.4
2.6
33
2.8
3.0
3-95 3.0
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.4
1.9
2,3
2.6
4-95 2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
1.8
17
0 1
2.3
1.8
1.0
2.4
2.6
5-95 2.6
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.4
0.4 -0.3 -0.6
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.3
1.1
6-95 2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.7
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.0
1.0
2.2
2.2
7-95 2.5
2.5
2.5
2.1
2,3
2.1
1.4
1.9
1.9
1.9
1,5
0.6
0.8
1.6
1.3 0.9
0.6
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95




Thousands
112,301
112,576
113,087
113,363
113,638
113,943
114,171
114,510
114,762
114,935
115,427
115,624
115,810
116,123
116,302
116,310
116,248
116,498
116,553

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

13

Real Personal Income
Trillions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987—100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)

iv;:

:

Terminal
Billions of Dollars
Month
Initial Month
Annual Rates
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
.....
3,741.Î
1-94 -8.1
3,793.3
2-94 4.2 18.1
3-94 3.8 10.4
3,803.1
3.Î
........
4-94 1.9
5.4 -0.4 -3.8
3,790.9
5-94 3.6
6.7
3,822.9
3.2
3.2 10.6
6-94 2.8
3,820.9
4.8 -0.6
5.2
2.2
1.9
7-94 2,7
4.6
2.1
3.8
0.5
1.6
3,826.0
18
8-94 2.9
2.4
1.7
2.9
4.2
3,839.2
4.5
2.3
3.9
2.7
5.1
5.9
9-94 3.2
4.7
2.9
2.9
4.3
3.9
3.857.6
5.4
8.7 11 1 16.5
10-94 4.5
4.7
6.2
6.9
6.0
4.5
3,907.0
5.0
5.9
6.5
6.8 -2.2
5.0
4.1
11-94
3.8
3.899.9
3.8
5.1
3.0
6.4
6.9
7.3
8.4
5.4
4.7
5.6
12-94 4.2
5.4
4.2
4.3
3,926.1
6.0
6.3
6,4
3.3 ..6,1... 3.9
5.2
4.6
5.3
1-95 4.2
5.3
4.2
4.3
3.938.6
5.1
56
5.9
5.8
3.3
5.2
3.7
5.1
4.5
4.1
4.2
2-95 4.1
5.1
3.5
3,950.0
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.0
4.4
5,5
3.5 4.9
3.8
5.1
4.1
4.2
3-95 4.1
3.8
4,0
3.962.9
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.1
2.7
3.3
0.5
1.1 -0.7 -2.2 -4.9 -13.0
4-95 3.0
37
2.8
2.8
3,917.2
3.7
3.1
3.7
3.6
3.3
1.6
2.2
1,0 0.3 *0,7 -3.0 8.2
4.0
3.1
3.1
3.5
5-95 3.3
I I S S 3.942.9
3.7
3.2
3.6
3.7
2.5
1.6
3.2
3.8
3.5
1.9
40
3.2
6-95 3.3
1.1
0.6 -0.6
6.3
4.5
3,957.3
3.9
3.4
3.9
4
4
3.4
3.9
3
4
2.9
2.1
1.8
1,5
0.9
6.0
5.0
5,4
3.974.8
„
M
? & .
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

14

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1 9 8 2 -8 4 —100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-93
1-94 -12.6
2-94 3.8
3-94 7.0
4-94 4.0
5-94 2.3
6-94 3.5
7-94 2.4
8-94 3.8
9-94 4.1
10-94 5.0
11-94 4.7
12-94 4.3
1-95 4.1
2-95 2.9
3-95 3.1
4-95 2.5
5-95 3.0
6-95 3.3
7-95 2.9

Initial Month
Billions of Dollars
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
121.553
23.2
123.681
125.005
18.3 13.6
124.543
10.2
4.3 -4 3
6.4
124.090
1.3 -4.3 -4.3
9.4
0.1
2.3
125.026
7.0
3.3
2.8 -3.4
0.4
124.663
5.2
1.9 -0.8
4 8 13.6
63
125.997
35
6.3
3.8
1.9
6.5
5.5 10.3
4.2
7.0
2.7
6,4
4.2
........ .................. 126.712
7 7
7 3 11.2
56
128.003
7.1
4.1
9.9 12.9
5.3
5.2
8.9
7.4
7.5
2.3
6.6
5.0
39
68
6.3
128.251
5.7
4.4
5 1 69
3.4
4.7
0 8 -0 7
128.176
4.4
53
6.0
4.1
5.2
4.6
1.1
0.5
1.7
4.1
3.2
6.0
4.5
3.9
128.353
5.6
2.4
3.2
2.5
3.3
0.7 -2.2 -3 6 -5 1 -11.4
4.2
1.8
1.7
127.065
2.7
2.7
35
2.8
3.6
3.0
2.1
1.5 -0.6 -1.4 -1.6 -3.2
5.8
127.662
4.3
2.3
2.6
2.0
2.0
127.072
1.5
2.6
3.6
2.3
1.3
0.5 -1.4 -2.2 -2.6 -3.9
0.0 -5.4
2.7
2.6
32
1.7 0.1 -0.2 l i l i -0.6
4.0
2.9
2.1
3.3
2.2
2.1 10.2
128.107
3.3
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.1
8.8
1.2
129.008
3.8
2.9
2.4
1.0
1.2
4.7
4.3
9.5
4.3
2.6
1.3
2.6
3 1 2.6
2.8
2.4 -3.6
3.8
2.2
3.2
2.3
0.4
2.2
4.9
128.611
1.8 0.6
29
0.6 0.4
12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100).




15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

à
Is /
11 w
\
H
\
11
I1

1.60

j

1.56

1.52

1.56

1.52

J

1.48

1.44

1.40

\

1.36
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1.48

1.44

A
/

j i

1.36
1995

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Period
1992
1993
1994

Retail Trade

Total Business(3)

Shipments (1)
2931.95
3100.14
3364.60

Inventories (2)
379.24
377.43
391.81

Sales (1 )
1944.61
2072.61
2233.59

Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02

Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7671.01

1994
August
September
October
November
December

288.08
286.13
283.98
291.19
296.05

387.01
386.53
388.06
389.99
391.81

187.86
189.31
191.49
192.12
192.39

283.52
287.25
288.67
289.99
290.02

652.89
651.40
653.12
661.90
671.28

897.79
902.12
908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

297.79
298.56
298.44
295.29
297.09
298.65
NA

396.10
399.73
402.08
405.68
408.29
408.94
NA

193.30
191.87
193.15
193.02
195.11
196.74
196.52

294.30
296.00
297.20
299.69
300.53
300.64
NA

673.92
675.48
674.80
672.91
678.44
683.08
NA

928.67
936.09
942.74
952.24
956.52
958.46
NA




Inventories
838.90
860.98
916.55

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

1.40

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
-0.6
-1 5
-0.4
-0 5
-0.5
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.4
13
1.4
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3

4-90
-2.4
-0.3
-0.5
-0,4
0.6
0.8
11
1.7
15
1,6
1.7
2,1
2.1
2,1
2.2
2,4
2.5
2.5

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.8
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
2.3
20
2.1
22
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8

-0 8
-0 5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.4
2 1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.8

-0.2
23
2.0
24
3.0
25
25
2.6
30
2.9
2.8
29
3.1
3.1

4.8
3.1
32
3.8
3 1
3.0
3.0
34
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.4
34
33

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.5
25
3,5
27
2.6
27
3.2
3 1
2.9
3 1
3.3
3.2
32

35
4.5
3.1
2.9
30
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.3

5,6
2.9
27
2.8
3,5
33
3,1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3,3

02
1.3
1.9
3.0
29
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.4
2.8
4,0
3.5
3,1
3.3
3.7
3.5
3.4

6.4
4.3
3.4
3.6
4.0
3.8
3.6

2.2
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.5
2.9
3.8
3.5
3.3

4.3
5.0
4.2
3.8

5.7
4.1
3.6

1-95

2.6
2,5

2.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

4,888.0
4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5,384.4
5,419.0
5.452.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




3.2
4.8
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
37
35

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

17

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
2 * 95
Real GDP

1.11

1 -95

3-94

4-94

2-94

4.04

5.07

2.70

1-94

4-93

3-93

4.09

3.35

6.26

2.69

Components (1)
2.47

2.57

5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

-1.34

0.13

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

2.24

1.06

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

0.97

2.47

2.22

1.40

1.40

1.67

3.38

1.70

1.55

2.63

2.12

1.67

1.09

1.26

2.30

1.33

-0.58

-0.15

0.10

-0.27

0.30

0.41

1.05

0.37

Final Sales
Change in Business
Inventories
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential
Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-0.13

-0.13

-0.73

1.13

-0.21

-0.89

-0.02

0.20

-0.30

-0.24

-0.97

0.66

-0.53

-0.72

-0.35

-0.21

0.17

0.11

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

-0.61

-0.84

0.74

-0.39

-0.59

-1.66

0.32

-1.33

0.78

0.61

2.36

1.71

1.86

-0.43

2.35

-0.38

-1.38

-1.44

-1.59

-2.08

-2.41

-1.24

-1.99

-0.94

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92

2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.7
-2.7 -2 8
2.1
*1.2 -0.4
-0 6
0.2
1.7
13
-0.6 -0.0
0.9
0.4 -0.5
0.5
1.1
2 1 2 1 26
5.8
0.6
1.2
2.0
3.7
2.0
2.3
16
23
24
1.0
27
3.8
4.2
2.8
2.9
3.3
1.5 2.1
3.7
1.5
2.0
2.7
2.7
3.0
1.6 2.1
2.6
3.5
2.7
2.9
1.8
2.3
2.8
28
3.0
3.6
2.9
2.0
2.4
3.0
3.2
3.6
2.2
26
3.0
3.7
3 1 3.3
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.5
2.1
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.7
3.0
2.4
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.0
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.4
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.7
2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
32
3.4
3.2
3.3

3.9
4.7
37
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.4

5.6
3.6
3.3
34
3.5
37
3.4
3.3

3.5
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
33
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.6
3.2
3.5
38
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.3

4.0
4.3
33
3.2
3.6
33
3,3

4.7
3.0
3.0
35
3.1
3.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

1.3
2.2
3,1
2.8
29

*
3.1
4.1
3.2
3.3

5.1
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.5

3.4

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

3,265.9
3,242.9
3.259.5
3,269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3.403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3,629.6
3,643.9
3,674.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 3 1 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.4
3.4

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4*90
1-91
3 1
3-91
4-91
1-92

2-92
3-92

4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91
-24.3
-24.5 -24.8
1 2 , 3
2, 2
-9.4 -3.8 8.7
-4.9 0.7 10,9
-0.8 4.7 13.7
2.2 7.5 15 4
2.1
6.5 12.9
4*3 8.5 14.4
4.4
8.2 13.2
3,2
6.5 10.7
3.7
6.8 10.6
5.4
8.4 12.0
5.8
8.5 11.9
5.8
8.4 11.5
5.1
7.4 10.1
4,9
7.0
9,6
4.4
6.4
8.7
3,4
5.2
7.3
3-90 4-90 1-91

2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

M ill
15.6
15.6
17.8

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

176.3
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5

-

15.6
18.9 22.4

186.7
\

19.0 20.2 22.6 22.7
15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

14.7
11.2
11.0
12.8
12.5
12.0
10.4
9,7
8.7
7,1
3-91

14.6 12.7 9.5
10.5 8.3
5,0
10.4 8.5
5.9
12.5 11.1 9.3
12.2 11.0 9.4
11.6 10.5 9.1
9.9
8.7
7.3
9.3
8.1
6.8
8.2
7.1
5.8
6.5
5.4
4,1
4-91 1-92 2-92

' y'r \

196.5

196.9
: ¡¡iig j

16.5 1.6*7 17,0 15.3 11*7 23.8
14.9
11.8
11.5
13.1
12.8
12.3
10.8
10.1
9.2
7.6
2-91

1-95

14.2 5.3
6.4 -1.3 -7.6 y-fh- ■ .
7.2
2.1
0.6
9.4
11.1 8.1
9.0 18.4
10.9 8.5
9.3 15.5
10.3 8.2
8.8 13.3
9.2
8.1
6.1
6.2
7.5
5.6
5.6 8.0
6.3
6.3
4.5
4.4
3.6
4.4
2,6
2.3
3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93

WÊËÊ

28.2
18.7 10.0
14.7 8.5
7.0
9.1
3.4
0.3
77
0.9
3.1
5.8
1.8 -0.2
2.8 -0,9 -2 9
3-93 4-93 1-94

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

-6.0
-2.0 2.3
-2.4 -0.6 -3.4
-5.3 -5.0 -8.5 -13,2
2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5
229.5
221,5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
________3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-95
540.2
522.2

------ -------- ------

--------—
-:--I-------;--—
--—
------- 1-91

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-10.2 -12.7
m m --.!

\.....; ...■■■wii\I.,t

3-91

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

. I. ■ i11jI

-3.0

514.4

-5.7
1-92

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

_ _
-0.1

506.8

:
.—___ ____
__
3-92

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

1-93

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

9.1

11.3

15.1

3-93

2.7

3.8

5.6

6.6

7.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

12.6

14.3 13.9

12.2

1-94

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

12.7

12.4

13.7

14.9

14.6

531.2
560.3

14.9

597.9
15.9

10.9

643.6

-I--- ,------- ------- --------3-94

5.4

6.3

7.8

8.7

9.7

11.3

12.5

12.2

13.1

14.0 13.8

13.4

13.7

11.4

11.6

14.1

1-95

6.9

7.8

9.2

10.1

11.1

12.5

13.6

13.5

14.4

15.2

15.1

15.6

14.6

15.5

17.7

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

15.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




680.0
19.6 21.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

19

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
3.0
1.7
-0.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0 3
-0.5
-0 6
"0.6
4-90

1-91 2-91

0.5
-1.7
-2.1
-1.2
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0 7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.1
-0 5
-0.8
-0.8

3-91

4-91

: -3.9
-3.4
-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.9

-9-8 -0.8
1-91 2-91

Annual Rates
1-95
949.5
950.6

¡IPlfllll B I ! ................... :.........'.................... :.... ;..........
941.3

-2.9
-0.7
1.5
-1.5 -0.8
0.6
-0.3
0.7
-0.1
-1.1 -0.7
-0.7 -0.4
-0.5 -0 2
-0.5 -0.2
-0.9 -0.7
-0.9 -0.7
-0 3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.4
-0.6 -0.5
-0.6 -0.5
3-91 4-91

934.4
937.8
-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0 2

930.7
3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
0 1
-0 4
-0.4

938.5
lÉ lll
0.9
940.6
-2.5 -5.9
926.5
....'..............* i
-1.3 ...“2.4
1.2
929.3
-0.7 -1.2
1.1
1.1
931.8
0.7 ...0.5 -0.1....
-0.6
.......................
931.5;
-1.3 -1.8 -0.7 -1.3 -2.5 -4.9
919.9
-1.3 -1.7 -0.8 “ 1,3 -2.1 -3.1
1.2
917.1
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
2.6
6.7
-0.3 -0 5
932.0
-0.3 .."0.5...-0.8 - 1 .0 ...0.3 ...1.1...-4-1......
922.2
: "0.8 M M
“0.6
-0.8 -1.0 -0 3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9
0.1
0.5 -2.5 -0.7
-0.6
920.5
.>
-0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.1
0.2 -1.9 -0.8
-0.6 -0x4 -p.e
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
o
7

1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
5,8
4.4
3.1
13
0,4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0,0
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0,3
0 1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
3-90

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
............. 1..1.................. ............ "
..................
........................................... ...................... “

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
Ü 95

3-90
7.5
8.4
5.1
1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.7
-0.5
-03
-1.9
-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-3.0
-3.3
-2.5
-3.2
-3.2

4-90
9.3
4.0
-1.0
-3.2
-2.8
-3.2
-1.6
-1.2
-2.9
-3.0
-3.0
-3.2
-3.7
-4.0
-3.1
-3.8
-3.8

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91

4-91
'0 >

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
' ' ! v* :

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
¡¡j||§j|j

s . 38&S

395.2
S i|

1 1B l l IB B
- i.i
-5.8 -10.2
:
-7.1 -9.9 -9 5
-5.6 -7.1 -5.5 -1.3
.g.5 „6 5 ¡i|Ü |g -3.1 -4.8

-3.3
-2.7
-4.3
-4.3
-4.1
-4.2
-4.7
-5.0
-3.9
-4.7
-4.6

-3.7
-2.9
-4.8
-4.7
-4.5
-4.5
-5.1
-5.3
-4.1
-4.9
-4.8

1-91 2-91

-2.0
0.7
1.7
86
:
-1,4
0.8
1.5 4.8
-3.9 -2.7 -3.0 -2.4
-3,8 -2.8 -3.1 -2.7
-3.7 -2.9 -3.1 -2.8
-3,9 -3.1 -3.4 -3.1
-4.5 -3.9 -4.3 -4.2
-4,8 -4.4 -4.7 -4.7
-3.6 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1
-4 5 -4 1 -4 3 -4.3
-4.4 -4.0 -4.3 -4.2
-dt" ft i -4.1 -4.3 i Jk
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

\ *

1.1
-7.5 -15.4
-6.2 -9.7
-5.4 -7.5
-5.3 -6.9
-6.2 -7.6
-6.4 -7.6
-4.4 -5.2
-5.6 -6.4
-5.4 -6.1

-3.6
-3.3
-3.9
-5.5
-6.0
-3.4
-5.0
-4.9
«4 9
3-92 4-92 1-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




383.6
374.1
372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1 :
341.7
.334,7i
343.5
330.4
327.2

-3.0
-4.0
-6.1
-6.6
-3.3
-5.3
-5.1

-5.0
-7.7 -10.3
-7.8
-3.4 -2.9
-5.7
-5.4 -5.5

2-93 3-93 4-93

1.1

10.9
-2.6 -144
-4.2 -3.0 -9.3 -3.8
- -7 :8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
4.1

1-91
2-9i
3-91

a

a

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.1
QO OA 7 ........ ... ......... ..........

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
519.0
544.0

.. ..

7.1

6.3 10.2
0.6
544.8
lilllilllï
8.1 11.4
7.0 13.7
7.7 10.0
6.7
9.8
6.1
6.6
8.3
5.3
7.0
3.8
1.5
6.4
7.8
5.3
6.6
4.3
3.4
5.3
as
7.7
5.6
6.7
6.2
7.2
5*0 4.6
5.7
6.5
4.7
5.4
3.8
3.0 -1.0
3.8
3.2
’TO?*gHKwv ;:., ;v . v
5.9
6.7
5.0
5.7
4.4
4.1
4.7
4.6
3.2
7.7
5.0
5.6
4.1
4.5
3.3
2.8
3.1
2.5
1.0 2.1 -3.2
6.3
7.0
5,7 6.3
5.4
5.3
8.2
8.5 21.7
6.0 6,1
5,8
5.2
4.3
8.3 -3.5
5.5
6 1 48
5.3
4.4
4.2
4.6
4.4
3.9
7.3 11*0 6.1 16,6
6.3
6.9
5*8 6.3
7,4
15& 6*0 6 1 ‘ 5.9
8.7 12.0
8.9 15.7 14.8
6.4
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.1
8.6
6.8
7.4
6.4
7.0
6.7 '*
20.2
7.6
8.2
7.4
7.9
.. 8*2...
*.**V . . '
7.2
7.3
7.9
8.2
9.5
9.7 12.1 10.2 14.0 13.1 12.3
4.8
7.4
8.0
7.2
7.7
8.3
7.2
7 .Ï
7.7
8.0
9.5 12,4 11.3 10.2
7.4
7.9
7.1
7.6
8.0
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
8.4
8.0
7.1
6.8
6,9
6.1
62
5.4
6.6
5.8
6.5
7.0
7.7
7.6

4-91
1-92
2-92
3 92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
706.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1995

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

m
1-91

-10.7 -12.2

539.4

3-91

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

1-92

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

571.8

___________
6.0

6.6

588.8
607.1
619.4

13.0
3-92

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

7.4
1-93

5.1

6.9

3-93

6.1

7.6

4-93
1-94
3-94

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.2
10.1
9.7

9.9
10.8
10.2

8.2

8.4
9.5

10.3
11.3

9.9
11.0

9.9
11.1

10.4
11.6

10.9
12.1

10.6

10.9

8.5

9.7

11.2

11.0

11.0

11.5

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

11.9

11.8 11.9

7.4

681.6

10.9

12.7

707.4
9.5

723.6

18.9

12.0

17.2

15.6

.3

13.5

11.4

12.5

11.8

12.1

13.3

13.6

13.4

15.0

13.1 13.3 13.1

14.2

12.8

13.5

12.9

12.6

14.6

755.6
783.5

13.0

14.0

12.4

10.8

10.1

1.9 12.4 12.5 12.2 13.0 12.5

13.1

11.6 10.4

9.8

9.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




646.8

11.6 12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 14.7 14.1
4-94
1-95

11.6
13.2 14.9
11.2 11.1

' 11.2 12.4 12.7 11.6 16.0

-Ir..

7.0

6.5

8.8
9.0
10.3 10.9
9.7 10.0

824.6

843.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

21

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1 99 0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

4-94

188,897

184,873

42,511

38,307

3-94

2-94

1 -9 4

col
o>
1

1 -9 5

166,231
30,942

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

178,274 171,823
36,031

32,338

3-93

2-93

166,422

158,613

161,065

30,412

29,931

29,958

Imports
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

-218,920 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912 -180,601 -179,858
-45,209 -42,878 -38,564 -34,623 -30,826 -30,376 -26,741 -27,893

Balance on Current Account

-40,503

-43,277

-39,714

-37,986

-30,271

-31,176

-27,032

-24,337

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

-63,951

-55,156

-27,940

-5,973

-36,783

-77,657

-46,270

-40,933

U.S. Official Reserve Assets

-5,318

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-545

822

-58,656

-56,258

-27,492

-10,001

-37,125

-76,666

-45,529

-41,474

U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.

85,080

84,715

79,736

46,526

80,390

99,458

77,928

51,277

Foreign Official Assets

21,336

-421

19,691

9,162

10,977

24,311

19,386

17,495

Other Foreign Assets

63,744

85,136

60,045

37,364

69,413

75,147

58,542

33,782

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross Saving
Period

$ Billion

1990:1

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

%(

Gross Private Saving

Gross Private
Domestic Investment

U.S. Net
Foreign Investment

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

1992:1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1993:1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994:1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4

1995:1
2

1006.0
992.0

14.4
14.1

1126.4
1093.7

16.1
15.6

1107.8
1092.2

15.9
15.5

-160.4
-172.2

-2.3
-2.5

2
3

4
1991:1
2
3

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




23

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

-

4-90
1 91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1 95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91
7.4
35 4 70.7
24.6 34.1
5.4
15.2 18.0 -1.9 -8.7
14.1 15.9
9.7
1.8 0.1
5 6 13.6
14.7 16.2
5.5
2.0
5.8
2.6
11.1 11,7
3.7
3.2 -5.1 -7.1 -6.7
8.7
12.1
5.6
5.6
4.6
7.0
10.2 10.5
4.7
11.8 12.2
7.1
7.3
9.9
9.9 12.5
134 14.0
9.5
14 3 14.9 10.8 11.4 13.9
7.9
8.1 10.0
11.4 11.8
9.7 11.5
12.5 12.9 9.3
9.1 10.8
8.9
11.9 12.2
10.9 11.2
8.0 8.2 9 6
7.9
8 1 9.4
10 7 10.8
11.0 11.2
8.5 -8 .7 :: 9.9
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

4-91

17.6
3.9
-11.5
8.5
6.4
9.9
12.9
14.4
10.0
11.7
10.9
9.6
9.4

1-92 2-92

-8.2
-23.3
5.6
3.8
8.4
12.2
14.0
9.1
11.0
10.2
8.9
8.7

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
3-92 4-92

:

Annual Rates
1-95
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
349.8
364.7

■

-35.8
ijliillllllp
:
13.3 100.2
liilllil
8.2 40.5
-1.4
12.7 28.8
13.0 86.5
16.8 35.6
19 1 30.9 33.1
18.2 33.5 20,6 29.0 29.1 2 5 3
11.2
14 6
11.8 22.7
10 2 0.3 -19.7
13.9
17.2
13.7 23.4
14.4 8.8
1.4 28.1
12.5 20.7
12.2
14.7
12.1
7.4
2.0 14.9
3.1
10.8
17.8
10.2 12.0
9.4 5.2 0.7
8.6 -0.1 -3.1
10.4
9.7
11.2
89
1.7
1.4 6.1
16.5
5.3
7.9
1.9
10 0 9.4 11,0 Ï6.7 10.6 12.0 10.0 ■ÜÜ 4.3 9,9 5 8
6.7 11,9 18.2
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Capital
Dividends Consumption

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

1990: 1
2
3
4

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

1991: 1
2
3
4

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

1992: 1
2
3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1995: 1
2

569.7
585.2

349.8
364.7

217.1
219.9

445.3
454.6

-39.0
-26.4

38.1
35.3

616.9
625.8

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government D eficit(-)/S u rp lu s(+)
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1989

1990

1991

1992

Billions of Dollars

1993

1994

1995

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Period

1991: March
June
September
December

1992: March
June
September
December

1993: March
June
September
December

1994: March
June
September
December

1995: March

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

3465.4
3539.0
3678.0
3785.6

881.3
885.5
922.7
959.4

2ms

35 & 4

2343.4

....254.2 ..
267.8
274.2

B H tH N Ii I

2655.2
2755.9
2822.4

2409.1
2498.2
2560.2

475.0
481.2
488.1

3884.6
3984.8
4078.7
4157.2

980.3
998.0
1019.4
1036.8

2905.2
2989.9
3059.5
3116.5

m.i

264& 7

, Ü • IliSHWiKIHi , i
1 i
-

275.7
299.7
294.9

2723.9
2775.2
2835.9

532.0
538.9
545.4

4237,1
4351.4
4426.9
4512.2

1061.6
1089.4
1119.9
1140.6

3175.8
3266.0
3307.0
3367.4

A

326.5
329.0
336.1

2877.6
2950.0
2993.9
3042.4

4585.2
4644.5
4709.1
4774.7

1162.5
1191.9
1216.2
1242.9

3422.8
3456.8
3492.5
3527.7

349.4
355.6
358.7
365.9

3077.1
3099.8
3139.5
3162.1

4875.1

1277.8

3598.2

376.6

3221 4

Net
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Federal
by Private
Reserve Banks
Investors

Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors

i n

i i

i ;

570.7
595.2
617.6
630.3
636.6
659.4
682.4
I M !!!

725.1

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal

2

3
4

1991: 1
2
3

Receipts
1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

Expenditures
1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1120.1

1264.5

4

1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1992: 1

1155.7

1435.6

2

1171.0
1166.5
1219.9
1212,7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6
1337.4
1380.7
1388.8
1408.8
1441.0
1475.5

1455.8
1460.4
1492.0
1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

3
4

1993: 1
2

3
4
1994: 1
2

3
4
1995: 1
2

1513.7
1525.9
1542.8
1569.9
1589.6
1603.3

Period
1990; 1

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

Expenditures

1676.1
1705.0
1728.7
1726.5
1734.0
1744.7
1768.5
1788.7

1808.0
1827.7
1848.6
1905.8
1868.4
1937.4
1964.2
2009.4
2073.5
2095.8
2110.5
2147.9
2162.9
2176.7
2181.9

-131.9
-122.7
-119.9
-179.3
-134.4
-192.8
-195.8
-220.7
-260.0
-258.9
-273.5
-239.1
-261.9

2221.0

-185.6
-151.1
-118.1
-130.1
-132.3
-120.4
-101.7

3
4

1991: 1

-207.6
-213.6
-245.8
-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1
-283.5
-237.0
-224.9

2

3
4

1992: 1
2

3
4

1993: 1
2

3
4
1994: 1

-220.1
-176.2
-145.1
-154.0
-161.1
-148.6
-127.8

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

Receipts

2

»

Period
1990: 1

Federal. State and Local
Surplus/
Deficit(-)

2

1813.5
1836.9
1837.0
1908.8
1901.0
1965.1
1980.9
2035.4

2066.5
2121.9
2138.8
2171.1

3
4
1995: 1

2211.2

2

2252.6

127.7
131.9
131.9
137.6
144.3
151.7
154.7
162.6
164.6
172.8
174.6
176.6
176,7
182.9
187.8
197.0
190.0
194.4
200.3
205.5

-211.6
-201.0

2217.6
2240.1
2268.9
2303.4
2331.7
2354.3

Grants-in-Aid(l)

211.0
215.7

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Estimate
Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1535
$1,357
1.518

-161

1994

1993

1592

$1,257.7
1.460.9
-203.2

$1,153.5
1.408.7
-255.1

$1,090.5
1.380,9

-290.4

I S M

$1,054.3
1.323.4
-269.2

1990
$1,031.3
1.252.7
-221.4

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1534

1533

1552

1531.

1333

$1,379.0
1.538.1
-159.1

$1,265.7
1.507.0
-241.4

$1,178.3
1,4603
-282.7

$1,128.7
1.331.6
-202.9

$1,111.4
1,274 3
-163.5

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimate is Congressional Budget Office baseline projection from THE ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK: UPDATE (August 1995).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-90
-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
1.2
19
2.4
1.9
3,7
3.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.6
5.4
5,5
5.7
5,9

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1.6
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.4

0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5.0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.3
6,3
6.5
6.7

3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8
6.7
6.9
7.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
1,115.8
1,120.1
1,121.8
1,132.5

2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
6.5
6.0
6.8
6.9
7.5
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.3

1,140.5
5.4
5.4
3 1
7.0
50
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.4
7.3
7.5
7.6

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.4
19
7.5
49
7.4
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6
7.5
76
7.8

-1.5
8.5
48
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9
7.7
7.8
8.0

19.6
8.1 -2.3
11.3 7.3
9 1 5.8
10.0 7.7
95 76
10.1 8.6
9 1 7.7
8.7
7.5
8.8
7.7
7.9
8.9

17.9
10 1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9
9.0
9.1

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.8
8.1

13.5
10.4 7.4
11.5 10.5 13.6
9.1
77
7.8
8.5 7.2
7.2
7.7
7.7
86
8.2
6.8 8.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.4
4 .Î
5.9
6.9

5.9
7.7
8.4

9.5
9.7

9.9

1,155.7
1,171.0
1,166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1,388.8
1,408.8
1,441.0
1,4 r b.

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31,1995

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
12.7
-0.6
6,5
6.1
7.4
8.6
8.2
7.3
7.5
6.8
6,3
5.7
6,0
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.1
' 5.1
3-90

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter

4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-12.4
3.5
4.0
6.1
7.8
7.5
6.6
6.8
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.6
4-90

22.2
13.3 5.1
13.0 8.7 12.5
13.5 10.8 13.8 15.0
11,9 9,5 11.0 10.3
7.2
8.5
10.1 7.8
7.6
8.0 8,6
9.9
7.3
6.3
8.8
7.0
6.4
5.4
7,9 6.2
4.5
5.4
5.5
7.0
5.2
7,3
5.9 6.0
4.0
6.2
4.8
4.8
4,7
3.9
6.0 4.7
4.7
4.0
4.7
5.8
4.2
5.9 4.9
4.8
4.9
4.3
5.9
4.9
5.7 4.8 4.8
4.2
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

______
5.7
3.5
1.3
5.3
5,0 8.9
4.2
3.7
1.1
5.0
3.6
3.1
3.7
1,2 1.2
2.9
23
2.5
0.5 0.2 -0.8
3.8
3.5 4.0 2.8 3.4 4.5 10 0
2.7
2.3
1.2 2.2
2.4
1.2
1.2
2.7
2.4
1.7 2 5
2.5
1.5 1.6
2.6
2.9
2.2
3.0
2.8
1.9 2.1
3.3
3.1
3.3 2.6 2.8 3,1
3.8
3.2
3.5
4.1
3.4
2.9 3.1
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.4 4.0
3.5 2.9 3.1
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

____________________

-5.1
>1.0
0.8
2.4
2.9
¡1-0
4-93

3.3
3.9
4.5
7,2
5.9
5.0
6.2
5.1
5.6
5.0
5,3 4.3
3.5
4.7
5.1
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

1,264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
1,589.6
1,603.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui:
August 31,1995

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Annual Rates

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
1,306.9

27

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