Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1986
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National Economic Trends
January 1986
After a relatively weak performance in the previous year, the pace o f economic activity accelerated slightly in the second
half o f 1985. The performance in the past six months, however, was still well below the strong recovery in the first six
quarters o f expansion following the 1981-82 recession. The accompanying table summarizes real GNP over the current
expansion.
Contributing to the acceleration of real GNP in the second half o f 1985 was a reduction in the negative impact of inventory
investment (GNP minus final sales), along with a slight increase in the growth of final sales. Real final sales, in turn,
reflected the diverse movements o f its components, with residential investment and federal purchases o f goods and services
showing the greatest acceleration. Both federal purchases and inventory investment, however, were distorted by relatively
large purchases by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). In national income accounting, CCC purchases are added
to federal purchases and subtracted from inventory investment, with no effect on GNP. Excluding CCC purchases, federal
purchases increased at a much smaller 7.2 percent rate in the second half o f 1985 and inventory investment was positive.
Tending to retard the acceleration of final sales in the second half o f 1985 were personal consumption expenditures,
nonresidential fixed investment and the growth o f imports.
Real GNP and Selected Components
(compounded annual rates of change)
11/1985
to
IV/1985
GNP
Final sales
Personal consumption expenditures
Residential fixed investment
Nonresidential fixed investment
Government purchases o f goods and services
Federal
State and local
Net exports
Exports
Imports
2.7%
3.6
2.2
8.5
6.3
12.5
26.2
2.2
—
1.2
12.9
11/1984
to
11/1985
1.9%
3.4
2.7
-0 .2
10.3
3.3
3.8
2.9
IV/1982
to
11/1984
6.9%
4.3
5.2
29.2
13.6
1.7
1.2
2.1
—
—
-2 .3
0.5
6.0
25.7
—Keith M. Carlson
THE
FEDERAL
RESERVE
RANK of
ST. IXM.TS
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
TOTAL C IVIL IAN EMPLOYMENT*
CQtiPQLffC>ED AMKUAL RATES QF CHANGE
THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS
MONTH
5-84
6—64
7-64
8-64
9-64 LQ—9 4 11-84 12—64
1-65
2-85
3-85
4-85
5-65
6-85
7—65
8—05
9-65 10-65
11-85
105 t ?9Q
6-84
4 .7
7-84
1.7
-1 .3
8-84
0. 2
- 2.0
- 2 .7
9—8 4
0.7
- 0.6
-0 .3
2.2
10-84
1.1
0.2
0 .7
2 .5
Or*
1.4
2 .9
1.9
105,,46.6
105,,2 2 2
105,,415
105,»657
2.9
971
105,►
11—84
1 15
12-84
1. 8
1.3
3 .0
3.2
3.4
3.2
1.-S5
1.6
1.2
2.5
2.6
2.5
2. 0
0.8
00
I
<N
3 .6
1. 8
1.4
we
2,6
2 .7
2 tl
2.3
W9
3.1
3-85
2. 0
1.7
2.1
2 .9
2 .9
3.0
2.9
2 .7
3.6
4.2
3 .?
248
106,►
106,,315
106^ 58 7
106,951
1. 8
1.5
w$
2 .4
2 .4
2.3
2. i
1. 8
2.1
1. 6
-0 .9
**CD
W
*i
1.7
1.4
1.7
2.2
2.2
2. 1
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.3
- 0. 1
0.8
6- 8 -;
1.3
1. 0
1.2
W6
1.5
1.3
1.0
0 .7
0.6
0.0
-1 .3
- 1 .5
- 3 .7
1
4-6 5
106,r872
939
106,►
601
106,►
7-35
1.4
1.1
W3
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.6
- 0.2
0. 0
- 0 .4
3.1
8-85
1 .5
1.3
W5
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.6
1.0
l.o
3.5
3.9
1.5
1.6
3.5
3.7
106,,071
210
107,►
107,>519
9-85
1.7
1.5
2. 0
2. 0
1.9
1. 8
1.6
1.7
l.l
1.5
10-85
1.8
1.6
1. 8
2.1
2.1
2. 0
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.8
2.0
3 .4
3.6
3.4
3.3
11-65
1. 8
1. 6
1.9
2. 1
2.1
2. 0
1.9
1.6
W9
1.7
1.4
1.9
1.9
3. 1
3.1
2.9
2.5
1. 8
12-85
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
2. 1
1.9
1.9
W9
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.6
2. 2
5-84
6-64
7—64
8-64
9—64 10-64 11-64 12-64
1-65
2-65
3-65
4-85
5-65
6-65
7-65
8-65
9-85
3.5
107,►
813
107,►
969
2.7
108,,206
10-65 11-65
IN IT IA L HONTH
♦PATA REVISED FHQW 1991
PRE PAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JANUARY 13, 1986
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
COMPOUNDED AfffUAL RATES QF CHANGE
TW V1 AJNPS
OF PERSONS
INITIAL MJNTH
TE-RMIMAL .
5-84
6-64
7-64
8-84
9~Q4
IQ -64
11-flV 12-6^
1-9?
2~Q?
3~65
4~65
5~8?
fr~6?
7-fr?___ ft=£S___ 9 ~ S5
U ~ 35
94t2L7
4 .1____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________ - ____
94i615
94,693
8-64
3 .9
3.7
3.6
9 —8 4
4 .0
4.0
4 .0
4 .5
10-64
4.1
4.0
4 .1
4 .4
4.
95.239
95.573
11-64
4 .0
4.0
4.1
4 .2
4.
3 .9
12-64
3 .8
3.8
3 .6
3.8
3.
3.3
2.7
1-65
3.9
3.9
3.9
3 .9
3.
3 .6
3 .4
95,082
96, 092
96, 419
4.2
96, 591
2.2
2-65
3.7
3.6
3 .6
3.6
3.
3 .2
3 .0
3-8 ^
3 .7
3.7
3.7
3 .7
3.
3 .4
3.3
3.4
3.1
4 .0
4—65
3.6
3.6
3 .5
3.5
3.
3.3
3.1
3.2
2.9
3.3
3.
3 .3
3.2
3.2
3.5
3r?
3.8
5-65
3 .6
3.6
3 .6
3 .6
3.2
3.4
96, 910
97, 120
2.6
97, 421
6-65
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.
3.0
2 .9
2.9
2. 6
2.8
2.3
2.2
0. 6
7-65
3 .4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.
3.0
2.9
2.9
2 .7
2.8
2.5
2.4
1.8
2 .9
8-65
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.
3 .0
2 .9
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
2 .7
2.3
3.1
3 .4
2.9
2.7
2 .7
2 .5
3. 1
3.2
9-65
3.3
3.3
3 .3
3.2
3.
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
*7 , 473
97,,707
97,,977
98, 217
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.3
3 .3
3.
3. 1
3.0
3.1
3.0
3. 1
2 .9
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.3
11-65
3 .3
3.3
3 .3
3.2
3.
3. 1
3 .0
3 .0
2 .9
3.0
2.8
2 .9
2 .7
3. 1
3.2
3.1
3.2
2. 2
3. 1
3 .0
2 .9
3. 3
3 .4
3.3
3.5
3.1
4-65
5-85
6-65
7-85
8-65
12-65
3*4
3.3
3.3
3 .3
3.
5-84
6-84
7-64
6-64
9-6
3.1
3 .0
3. 1
3 .0
10-64 11-64 12—64
1-85
2-85
3-65
3. 1
T
i*
10-65
98,,559
98,r7 39P
4.0
99,,059P
10-65 11-85
IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY
PR EPA RED BY FED ER A L
JA N U A R Y 8 , 1 9 6 6
2
RESERVE
BAN K
OF
ST.
L O U IS
EMPLOYMENT
RATIO
SCALE
MILLIONS
OF
RATIO
PERSONS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
M I L L I ON S
OF
SCALE
PERSONS
SO iRCE t U .S . DEPARTy£NT Of LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES Of CHAHCE F M
LATEST BATA PL O T T ED
«DATA R E V I* tD
D E C tM *«
PER I 015
I NO I CATED .
PREL IM I HARY
FROM I 9 4 1
PR tPA A tD
UNEMPLOYMENT
SEASONALLY
PERCENT
BY F tM Jt A L
RESCRVE IAMK Of I T .
LO f IS
RATE *
ADJUSTED
PERCENT
12. 0
I l
11.0
.
10. 0
10.
9 .
.
8.0
7.
7.0
6.
6.0
5.
5.0
8
4.
4.0
1 978
1979
1980
198 1
1982
1983
1984
SOURCE:
PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N
LATEST DATA PLOTTED,
it OAT A R EV ISEO
U .S .
1 985
1986
DEPARTtttNT OF LABOR
LAIO R FO#CE
DECEMBER
FROM 10 6 1
PREfAAED BY FEDERAL
3
RESERVE B A W
OF ST.
LO U IS
CO NSUM ER
P R IC E
~
IN D E X FOR A L L U R BA N C O N S U M ER S , S E A S O N A L L Y
COHTOUKDED A W ^ JA L “R A T E S OF CHAHGE
A D JU S T E O
INITIAL MONTH------------------------------------------------------------------------------mT^IUIT
HONTH
6-84
6-8 4
'
7-84
10-84 “11^84 12-84
1-85
7^85
3-55 ' 4-85
5-85
6-85
7 - 85““ 8"-85 "^■-85 10- 8 ^ 11-85
31tT.3
3 1 r.. 3
3.1
3.9
8-84
37 8
A. 5
5". 1
9-84
3.9
4.5
4.7
-*
I
Z“¡, 6
31
4. 3
t t;. 7
3
314 .,7.
4.2
4.3
3.9
3.5
3.3
378
374 '
279 '
27 3
3 .5
3.7
3T 7
37 3“
3.0
2.7
3.1
.. 0
316
'JÌ
378
' 37'6
3
12-64
9-84
2.3
7-04
10-54
8-84
3T 4
3". 5
3". 4
3.1
zrs
2.6
2.7
273
2-B 5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.0
3. Z
3.3
4 .2
3-85
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.9
4. L
"5.0
57 B
31 b\76
31 r
.r r
319 .. z
4-85
3.9
3.9
378
3.7
3 .7
4.0
4.2
4.9
57 2
4.6
5 - 8"5
3.8
3VB
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.8
3 .9
4.3
4.3
3.6
2t
.!
6 —8 5
3.7
3.7
373
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.9
3.3
Z.,I
321 . T
32 I ., «
2 .6
7-85
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.0
I.
2. 5
'7 7 1 '
8-85
1.4
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.2
3. Z
3'. 3
371
37 5
3.4
2.9
2 ..5
2.4
773
Z. 3
374
3.4
3. Z
3.2
3. 1
3»Z
3. Z
3. 3
3. 2 "
276
Z.. 4
Z. 4
2.3
7.3
7. 3
3.4
3.4
3.4
"3.3
3. Z
3. 2
373
371
3.4
373
?~.'9
*.6
276
2.6
2.8
3.0
3. B
57 3
9—6 5
10-85
11-55
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3 .^
3. 5
3.6
3.6
12-85
3.7
37 T
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
37 7
3.
5-04
6-64
7-84
8-84
9-84
J
10-64 11-04 12—84
".. 4
320
322..4
32 r.ro'
3ZT.. 6
3. /
3.7
3.4
3.
3 ". 3
3'. 5
3.8
^3
3. 9
3. 8
3.6
3 .. 5
376
3. 8
4.1
4.5 ----- 5V 3~~
1-85
Z -85
3-85
4-85
5-85
6-85
7-85
8-65
9-85
324 .. 6
6.9
326 .n*
------ 573
32 77. 8
10-85 11-85
IN IT IA L KONTH
p rep a red by f e d e r a l r e s e r v e BANK OF ST. LCHJIS
JVH J1KT
7 2,
IV 8 5 ----------------------------------------------------------
PRODUCER PR ICE INOEX, FINISHED GOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO*
_________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE_________________
TFRMTNAL
MONTH
INITIAL
5-64
6 —ft 4
0 .0
7 —fl 4
1.2
6-64
7-64
6-84
9—64
10-64
1 1 -8 4
12-64
1 -8 5
1967
1
10 NTH
2 -6 5
3-55
4—65
5-85
6-65
7-95
8-65
9-95
10 -6 5
100
11-85
291 ♦ 2
2.5
m ,e
291.2
8-84
0 .0
0.0
9-64
0.0
0.0
-1 .2
0 .0
10 -6 4
-0 .2
-0*2
-1 .1
-0 .4
-0 .0
11-64
0.6
0.7
O.Z
1. 1
1*7
4 ,2
12-64
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.6
1.1
2.1
0.0
1-65
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.7
1.2
-0 .2
-0 .4
2-65
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.6
0 .7
1. 1
0.1
0,2
-2 .4
291,2
291,0
292,0
292,0
291.9
0.0
292,1
3-65
0.5
0. 5
0.3
0.7
0.8
1.2
0.4
0.5
1.0
1. 2
4-65
0.9
1 .0
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 ,3
1.7
2.3
3.1
5,0
5-65
1.0
1 .1
0 .9
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.8
3.5
2.1
6-65
0.8
0 .8
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.7
0.0
-2 ,0
7-65
0.9
1. 0
0 .9
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.2
1.4
1 .7
1 .9
2.1
1.1
0 .6
3,3
a-as
0.6
OJL
0.5
0.0
0 .9
1.0
0.8
0.9
1 .0
0.9
-0 ,1
-0 ,0
-0 ,2
-3 .6
9 —ft 5
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
-0 .4
-1 .5
-2 .3
-2 ,4
-5 ,2
0.3
-0 .1
-0 .1
-0 .1
292,4
-0 .2
293,6
294. 1
293.6
294.4
293,5
291.0
—6 , 7
294.3
10 - 6 5
0.8
0.8
0 .7
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.9
1. 1
1.1
1. 1
0 .5
0 ,2
0,7
-0 ,1
1, 6
1 0, 0
1 1- 65
1. 3
1 .3
1 .3
1 ,5
1,6
1,0
1*6
1 ,0
2 .0
2.1
2 .2
1.0
1 .0
2.6
2.4
4.4
10.5
10.2
.1 2 -6 5
1.4
1 .5
1.4
1,7
1 .9
2 ,0
1 ,0
2 t0
2,2
2*3
2,5
2* 2
2,2
2t 9
2.6
4.5
8.5
7.4
4.5
5-04
6-64
7-6 4
6—64
9-64
10-64
11 -6 4
12-64
1-85
2-65
3 -6 5
4—85
5-65
6-65
7-65
e-«5
9-65
10-65
11- 65
in it ia l
♦DATA FOR FOUR
-
MONTHS ASO
KEYI SED TO REFLECT
LATE
296 . 7
297.8
IMONTH
REPORTING
PR EPA R ED BY
JA N U A R Y 1 0 ,
4
FED ERA L
1986
RESERVE
BAN K
OF
ST.
L O U IS
RATIO
PR I C E S
SCALE
I 967-100
C P I- *
SEA SO N A LLY
PP ICC IN »CX
PATA U « I N N I N «
PEHCENTA&ES A JE
iA T t * T
» ata
M T t»
*f
CHA#©t P M
PU N ***
<CP I - • >
H « * 0 « « * * * IP CO TS.
IM» I CATC».
h c iu k i
w m i rr PtHuu. t t « m
RAT I 0
1967-
PR ODUC ER
SCALE
100
SEASO NALLY
PERCENT AfcE S APE
LATEST
AMHCAl
0ATA PLO TTED,
SCALE
I 967-100
» EC IM N IM « JAJKWJTT 197 i |$ P M U L »«»AM C O ftS W ftM
1 0 « ) IM C « fefM U rC A KtMTAL C M IV A L L M C t M A I M ( F N
AJMVAL
p t r r r e j,
RATIO
A D JU S T E D
PA T ES Of
OECEJpeEB
CHA^E
» am
PRICES
m
rr.
RATIO
A D JU S T E D
F O I PEP I a t ?
SCALE
I 967-100
I HO ICATED
PPE^A JttD
5
im is
BY FEDEPA1
PESEPV E
6 AJtt
OF
ST
LODI
PR O D U C ER P R IC E IN D E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER FOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D JU S T E D 6*
________________________ COMPQUNQED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE________________________________
TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH_________________________________________________________________________ 1967 «
IOO
MONTH
5- 8 4
6- 6 4
0.0
7 -6 4
9.4
6-64
7-84
3-0 4
9-94
1 0-6 4
11-9 h 12-94
4-85
5-65
6-65
7-85
7.8
-3.0
4.5
-2.4
-1 .7
-1.7
11-85
273 . 4
27 3 .0
10-64
2 .3
2.9
-2.2
-1 .7
U -04
3.1
3.7
0 .0
1.0
2.4
6.8
12-64
3. 3
3.9
l.o
2.0
3,3
5 .9
4.9
2.5
-o. 1
0.4
1 .0
1.9
-0 .4
—5 . 5
2.3
0. 1
0.6
1.1
1.8
0.1
-2 ,2
274 .5
27 5 .6
274 . 3
274 . 6
1.3
273. 5
3-95
1.4
1.5
-0.5
-0,2
0 .1
0.4
-1.1
-3.0
-1.7
-4.7
4 -8 5
0 .2
0. 3
-1 .7
-1 .5
-1.5
-1.5
-3 .0
-4.9
-4 .7
-7.6
-10.4
5-65
—0 19
-1.0
-2.9
-2 .9
-3 .0
-3.2
-4 .8
—6 . 6
—6 . 8
-9.4
-11.7
6- 9 5
-0.9
-1.0
-2.7
-2.6
-2 .7
-2. 8
-4. 1
-5.6
-5 .6
-7 .2
-8. 1
271 .0
2 67 .9
-12.9
-6 .9
26 7 .8
-0.4
27 0 .6
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1 .2
-2.1
-3. 1
-2.7
-3 .5
-3.1
—0 . 6
6. 2
13.3
9-35
-0.6
-0.6
-2.0
-1 .9
-2.0
-2.0
-2 .9
-3 .8
-3.6
-4 .4
-4.3
-2 .7
0. 9
1.6
-8 .9
9- 65
-l,o
- If 1
-2.4
-2.4
-2.5
-2. 5
-3 .4
—4. 3
-4. 1
-4.9
—4. 9
-3 .8
-1.6
-8.3
-1 .6
0. 1
9—6 5 10-65
273 . 8
5,1
7-85
8-65
274. 5
3 .4
2 .1
3-65
19.6
8 -6 4
2~85
2-65
270 .4
9 -6 4
1-65
1-65
0. 1
10-65
0.0
0 .0
-1.2
-1 .0
-1 .0
-0.9
11-85
1.1
1.1
0 .1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0. 1
12-65
1.5
1.6
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.8
5-84
6- 6 4
7-84
8—8-4
9 -6 4
10-8 4 11-84
-1.3
266. 5
266. 7
-7.8
270. 5
-2.2
-1.8
-2.2
-1.9
-0.4
2 .3
3. 1
-0. 1
4.6
18.5
-0 .4
0.2
0.0
0.7
2.4
5.1
6. 3
4.6
9 .6
19.4
20. 3
0.4
1.0
1.0
1.6
3. 2
5 .8
6.8
5 .6
9.6
16.0
14.8
9.6
12-64 ^ 1 - 5 5
2-55
i-95
4-95
5-55
¿- 5 5
7-8 5
8-55
9-95
10-55
11-85
274 . 7
276. 8
IN IT IA L MONTH
♦O AT A FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FLNISHED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*
________________________________C Q f im f flP E D
TERMINAL
HONTH
ANNUAL R A T E S
QF
CHANGE_____________________________________
1967 «
I N I T I A L MONTH
5-84
6—6 4
0.0
7-6 4
-1.2
6-64
7-84
8-8 4
9 -6 4
10-64
11-84
12-84
1-85
2- 6 ?
3-65
4-85
7-85
-2,0
-1 .3
-0 .8
0.4
10-64
-0 .9
-1.1
-0.7
0.0
-0 .4
11-64
—0 . 2
-0 .2
0 .3
1.1
1.4
3,3
11-85
-0.1
7 9 4 .9
294. 8
295 .6
29 5 ,2
17-64
—0 . 4
-0.5
0.4
0.4
0.8
1-85
-0.2
-0 .2
0. 1
0 .6
0.6
l._Q_ - 0 . 2
1.2
2- 6 5
-0 .1
-0 .2
0 .2
0.5
0.6
0.8
0,0
0 .8
0.4
3-65
0.2
0 .3
0.6
1 .0
1.1
1. 4
0.9
1.8
2.0
3 ,7
4-85
1.1
1.2
1 .6
2.1
2 .3
2.8
2.7
3. 8
4.7
6 .9
10.2
3*5
4.5
5.4
7. 1
8 .8
7.5
1.8
2 .2
2.7
3.0
3.5
-1.6
295 .5
2 9 5 .6
296. 5
29 8 .9
300 . 7
300 .0
6-65
1.3
1.4
1. 7
2. 1
2.3
2.7
2.6
3 .3
3.7
4.5
4 .8
2.2
-2.8
7 -0 5
1.2
1.3
1.6
2.0
2. 1
2.4
2 .3
2 .9
3 .1
3 ,7
3.7
1.6
-1.2
0 .4
2. 7
2.5
0,7
-1 ,5
-0 ,6
-2*0
8-65
1 .0
1.1
1.3
1.6
9-8 5
0.6
0.6
0 .8
10-85
1 .0
1.0
1.3
12-65
10-85
294 .8
-2,2
-1.0
1.3
9-85
295. 3
—l t 5
11-65
8-85
-2 .4
8 -8 4
1 .6
6-85
W t9
9—84
5-65
5-85
100
1.4
1 .6
2 .2
2.4
1 .7
2.0
1.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
1. 3
1.3
1.5
1,1
1.5
1 .6
1. 8
1 .6
2 .0
2.0
2,2
2*0
2 .4
2,5
2,8
2.6
1 .9
2.0
2. 2
2.1
300. 1
299,6
298, 1
-2*i>
-2,5
-3*?
-5.8
Q* 7
-0 t 6
0.0
-o*l
0.8
7. 9
1 .6
0.7
1.4
1 .6
2.8
7. 5
7 .0
1.7
1.9
2.9
6.0
5.1
3 .2
6-65
7-65
8-85
9-65
10-65
11-85
1, 4
L.5
1 .7
2,0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.7
1.8
1 .0
5-84
6- 6 4
7-64
8- 8 4
9- 6 4
10-64
11-64
12-84
1-85
2-85
3-85
4-85
5-85
30 0 .0
301 . 7
302 . 5
MONTH
IN IT IA L 1
*t>AL*L FOR FQUP MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING
PR EPA R ED BY
JA N U A R Y 1 0 ,
6
F E D€R AL
1986
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U lS
INDUSTRIAL
RAT I 0
PRODUCTION
SCALE
RAT I 0
1977-100
SEASONALLY
1978
1979
1980
1981
ADJUSTED
1982
SCALE
197 7-100
1983
1984
1985
1986
PERCENT AC£5 AUE AM M tAl HATES Of CHANGE F Of P E * I OOS IN D IC A T E D .
LA TEST DATA PLOTTED,
DECEMBER P R £ L I H I NA*Y
PREPARED I T
__ ______________________________________________IND US TR IA L
FEDERAL R E SERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS
PRQCHKTIQN____________________________________________
COMPOUNDED -ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
1977 - 100
IN IT IA L MONTH
t e r m in a l
MONTH
5-84
6-84
7-84
6- 84
9-84
10-64 11-84 12-84
1-85
2-65
3-85
4-85
5-85
6-65
7-85
8-65
9-65 10-65 11- 85
122 .3
6-64
10.4
7-64
9.8
9.2
8-84
7.5
6.0
123 .2
3.0
123 .5
9-84
5.0
3.3
0.5
- 1 .9
10-64
2.8
1.0
- 1.6
-3 .8
-5 .7
11—84
3.5
2. 2
0.5
—
0. 3
0.5
123 .3
122 . 7
7. 1
123 .4
12-64
2.8
1.6
0.2
-0 .5
0.0
3. 0
- 1 .0
1-65
2.9
1. 8
0.7
0. 2
0.7
3 .0
1.0
3.0
2-65
2.6
1.7
0 .7
0 .3
0.8
2.5
1 .0
2.0
1.0
3—85
2.7
1 .9
1.0
0 .7
I.1
2.6
1.5
2.3
2.0
4-65
2.5
1.8
1.0
0 .7
1.1
2.3
1 .4
2.0
123 .3
123 .6
123 . 7
124 .0
1. 6
o
124 . 1
o
2.9
5-65
2.3
1.6
0 .9
0. 6
1.0
2. 0
l.l
1.6
1.2
1.3
0.5
0. 0
6-65
2.3
1. 6
1.0
0.8
1.1
2. 0
1.3
1. 6
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.0
2. 0
7-65
2 .0
1.4
0 .7
0. 5
0.8
L. 5
0.9
1. I
0.8
0.8
0. 2
o
o
o
o
- 1 .9
8-65
2. 6
2.0
1.5
1
1.7
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.3
2 .7
3.6
4 .4
11.2
9-65
2.3
1.8
1.3
1 *2
1.5
2. 1
1.7
2. 0
1. 8
1.9
1.8
1.9
2 .4
2.6
4 .9
- 1. 0
0 .9
0 .6
o
124 . 1
124 .3
124 . 1
125 .2
0.8
0. 6
0.8
1.4
0 .9
1.1
o
0.2
1.0
-3 .8
1. 6
1.2
1 .0
1.3
1. 8
1 .4
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
2.4
?
12-65
2.4
2.0
1.6
1 .5
1.7
2.3
1.9
2. 2
2. 1
2.2
2.2
2 .3
2 .6
2.8
3.7
1.9
6-84
7-84
8- 84
1-85
2-65
3—8 5
4-85
5-85
6-85
7-85
8-65
9-5
10-84
1 2 -ÜW
INITIAL
- 6 .5
124 .4
o
1.3
2.1
125 . 1
o
o
1.8
11-65
o
10-65
0 .9
2 .9
8.0
125 .I P
9 .0
126 .OP
9-65 10-85 11-•85
MONTH
_____ P~ PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JANUARY 16, 1986
7
PERSONAL
RATIO
SCALE
TRILLIONS
UONTHIY
OF
1978
DOLLARS
1979
INCOME*
TOTALS
AT
SEASONALLY
1 98 0
1981
ANNUAL
1 982
TRILLIONS
1983
1984
S O M C f:
PERC EN TA G ES
AltE
LA TEST
PLO TTED :
DATA
* DAT A R E V IS E D
AMHUAL
FROM
RATES
D EC EM BER
Of
CHANCE
FOR
P E R IO D S
RATIO
RATES
ADJUSTED
« .S .
OF
1985
DEPARTM EN T
SCALE
DOLLARS
1986
OF
COMMERCE
IN D IC A T E D .
P R E L IM IN A R Y
1959
PREPA RED
P E R S O N A L IN C O M E *
______________________________________ C Q M P Q U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S O F
BY
FED ERA L
RESERVE
6AMK Of
ST.
L O U IS
C H A N G E _____________________________________________
& i l l i o n 5
0 ft
TERHtNAL_________ _________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS
»ANNUAL f u m
month
6-85
7-65
8-65
9-65 10-65 11-85
8-64 9-84 10-64 11-64 1 2 - 84 1-65
5-84
6-64
2—65
3-65
4-65
5-65
7-64
098.7
6-64
7.9
7-64
9.1
10.3
8-84
8.6
8.9
7.5
3, 124. 1
3 » 143. 1
9-64
8.7
8.9
6. 2
8 .9
10-64
7.0
6.8
5.6
4 .7
0.6
11-64
6.9
6.7
5.9
5 .3
3.6
6. 6
12-84
7.2
7.1
6.5
6 .3
5.4
7.9
9.2
3, 165.5
3, 167. 2
3, 184 .0
207.4
3,
1-65
6.8
6.7
6.1
5.8
5.0
6. 5
6 .4
3 8
2-65
7.3
7.3
6.8
6 .7
6.3
7.8
8.2
7 7
11.7
3-85
7.0
6.9
6.5
6 .4
5.9
7.0
7.2
6 5
7 .9
4.1
3, 217.3
3,
3 , 288 .6
4-65
7.4
7.4
7. 1
7 .0
6.8
7. 8
8. 1
7 8
9 .2
7.9
11.8
5-65
6. 2
6. 1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.7
5.6
4 8
5.1
3.0
2.4
-6. 2
6-65
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.3
4.9
5.4
5.3
4 6
4 .8
3♦ L
2.8
-1 .5
3 , 271.2
3, 280 .5
3.5
7-65
5.6
5.7
5.3
5.1
4.7
5.2
5.0
4 5
4 .6
3.2
3.0
0. 2
3.5
3.5
8-65
5.6
5.4
5.1
4 .8
4.5
4.9
4 .7
4 1
4. 2
3.0
2.8
0.6
3.0
2. 8
2.0
9-85
5.6
5.4
5.1
4 .9
4.6
4.9
4.8
4 3
4.3
3.3
3.2
1.6
3 .6
3.6
3 .7
5.4
2. 6
4 .4
4 .7
5.0
6.6
10-65
5 .7
5.6
5.3
5. 1
4.8
5.2
5.0
4 6
4 .7
3.9
3.8
3, 290.0
3, 295.5
3, 309.9
7.8
3» 330 .7
11-65
5.7
5.6
5.3
5.2
4.9
5.2
5.1
4 8
4. 9
4. 1
4.1
3.1
4.7
5.0
5.3
6.4
7.0
6. 2
12-65
6.3
6.3
6. 0
5 .9
5.7
6. 1
6. 1
5 8
6. 0
5.4
5.6
4 .8
6 .5
7.0
7.6
9.2
10. 6
1 2. 0
5-04
6- M
6-84
9-84
1-Ô5
¿-05
3-65
4-65
5-8 5
¿-05
7-85
8-Ô5
9-65
1Ô-A5
10—64 U -Ô 4 1 2 - M
247.2
3, 258.2
3, 347 .4
18.0
3, 39 4.OP
I NI TI AL
♦DATA REVISED F RON 1959.
_________________
PR EPA RED 6 ? FFO EKÀ L
JA N U A R Y 23 » 1 9 0 6
8
V rfc A N ^
OF
5T.
I CO I T
RETAIL
RATIO
SALES
SCALE
B I L L I ONS
OF
1978
RATIO
DOLLARS
1979
SEASONALLY
1980
1981
B I L L I ON S
ADJUSTED
1982
1983
1 984
SOURCE : U .S .
PERCENT ACES ARE AKKDAL RATES Of CHAHCE FOR P E R IO D S
LATEST DATA P IO T T E J.
H0VEM6ER,
1985
OF
1986
DEPAÄTMCN7 O f C O W K .K C E
I MO I C A T E D .
D ECEHtER ADVANCE EST I HATE
PREPARE! §Y PEIERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.
r e t a il
TERMINAL
KONTH
IN IT IA L
5—R4
..
7—9 4
6-64
1 3 .5
7-64
- 2 . 1 -15^5
3-84
- 2 .0
-9 *3
-1 .9
9-04
1 .2
- 2 .6
4 .6
.3
-0 *3
Û -9 4
9—84 10-94 11-94 12-94
1-85
3-85
9 .1
6 .9
_1 1 . 1
1 0 .?
1 5 tl
12-64
3.4
1 *5
5 .6
7 .6
6 .3
6 .0
- 2 .3
1 -9 5
4 .2
3 .0
JÎL.4
.9 .2
7 .4
7 ,?
4 ,0
10,6
5 .2
4 .2
.7 .3
9 .9
9 .4
9.9
6.9
1 1 ,7
1 2 ,?
3—8 5
4 ,4
3 *A
6. 0
7.2
6 .5
6,5
4,4
6,8
4 ,9
- 2,6
4 -Ö 5
7
.5
6 *?
.
Ì.9
1 1 ,3
1 1 .3
11 1 5
15,2
16,7
18.7
44.7
?.9
..
1*2
? ,4
? .l
9 ,6
10,9
u .o
10,3
17.4
6
9-65 10-85 11-85
108,974
l^ tP
?» 5
110,255
110,042
110,972
112,096
11 1,854
115,35 1
- 4 .8
114,884
6-Ô5
.?
6,3 „ J . 1
6 .6
6» 6
5,5
6,0
6,1
4 ,4
6.9
-6 , 1
- U .4
7-85
5. 1
4 .5
6 .4
6 .7
6 ,7
5 ,7
6,9
6,3
5,0
7.0
- 3 .2
- 2 .4
7.5
7» 5
a -a5
6• 6
6 *2
. 9 .1
9-85
a .0
7 *6
9 .5
LO-65
* .5
3.9
5.4
11-95
,7
4 ,2
12-65
? ,7
5-84
8-85
108.373
5 .4
_
7-85
11.5
.7 ,7
5 -S 5
6-85
107,563
2 *6 .
.
5-95
107,396
?
_
4-85
109,095
* .3
2 -Ö 5
MILLIONS OF
DOLLAR S
MONTH
2-85
1 0 -8 4
_
LOW IS
sales
l l —S^
.
.
¿-ûiL
SCALE
DOLLARS
6 ,7
6-94
7-9 4
7.2
Ô.9
113,730
114,417
116,977
9 .9
9 ,2
9 ,6
9,5
9 ,9
1 1 ,3
4 ,3
1 9 ,4
30,4
10 «_3
1 0 .6
1 0, 2
1 1 ,7
1 1 ,9
11,6
14 * £
9 ,9
1 2 ,7
2 2, 0
30,0
5.?
5.5
5,4
4,6
5,3
4 ,7
3,7
4 ,7
-0 ,9
-0 , 1
3.0
¿ri
5,7
5,6
4 .9
5,5
5.0
4.2
5.1
0 .4
1.3
4 .0
3.2
-4 .6
-1 8 .1
8.2
7^2
6 ,9
7 .0
6 ,4
7.1
6.0
6 .2
7.2
3.3
4. 5
7.4
7,4
2,3
- 5 .5
16.7
9—94 10—6 4 11—6 4 12-84
1-85
2-85
3-65
4-85
5-65
6-65
7-95
8-65
9-85
10.
8-84
9 .7
2 9.7
119,538
1 . 6 -1 0 .4 -3 8 .1
114,860
115,620P
117,86 2 &
25.9
10-65 11-65
IN IT IA I MONTH
P-
P R E L IM IN A R Y
E- £STIMATfO
PR EPA RED BY
JA N U A R Y 1 4 ,
9
F E DGR Ai.
196 6
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
H O U R LY C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S I N E S S S EC T O R
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE
1977-100
IN IT IA L IQUARTER
TERMINAL
OUAP TEP
4-80
1-61
2-61
3-81
4-81
1-62
2-82
3-62
4-82
1-83
2-6 3
3-83
4-83
1—84
2-84
3-64
4—64
1-65
2-65
139.2
1-81
10.7
2-e i
9 .0
7.4
3 -« 1
9.3
8.7
141.7
9 .9
145. 1
147.6
<►-81
8.8
8.1
8.5
7.1
1-62
9 .2
8.8
9 .2
8 .9
10.7
2-82
8.8
8.4
8.6
8. 2
8.7
6.8
3-82
8.6
8.2
8 .4
8.0
8.3
7.1
4-62
8 .0
7.7
7 .7
7.3
7 .3
6. 2
5.9
4 .4
1-63
7.7
7.3
7 .3
6.8
6.8
5.8
5.5
4 .5
L51.4
153.9
156.7
7.5
158.4
4 .6
160.2
161.0
2-83
7.1
6.7
6.6
6. 1
6.0
5.0
4 .6
3.7
3.3
2.0
3-63
6. 6
6. 2
6. 1
5 .6
5.4
4 .5
4. 1
3 .3
2 .9
2. 0
2.0
4-83
6. 6
6.2
6. 1
5.6
5.5
4 .7
4 .4
3.8
3.7
3.3
4 ,0
6. 1
5 .7
5.6
4,9
4 .7
4.2
4 .2
4. 1
4 .7
6. 1
6. 2
161 .8
164.2
166. 7
1-64
6.5
6. 2
6.1
2-64
6. 2
5.9
5.7
5.4
5.2
4. 6
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.6
4.0
4 .7
4.1
1.9
3-64
6. 1
5.8
5.6
5.3
5. 1
4 .6
4 .3
3.9
3.9
3.8
4. 1
4 .6
4 .2
3. 1
4-84
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.5
4.3
4 .0
3.9
3.8
4. 1
4 .6
4 .2
3.5
4.3
4.3
3.8
4 .5
4.5
4.8
L67.5
4 .4
169.3
171.1
173.1
1-65
5.9
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.0
4 .6
4.4
4. 1
4 .0
3.9
4.2
4 .6
4 .3
2-65
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.0
4 .9
4.5
4 .3
4 .0
3.9
3.9
4. 1
4.4
4. 1
3.7
4.2
4.1
4 .0
3.3
3-65
5.7
5.5
5.3
5. 1
4.9
4 .5
4 .4
4. 1
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.5
4 .3
4 .0
4 .4
4.4
4.5
4 .3
5.4
4-80
1—61
*-èi
4-61
1-S i
2-82
i-S 2
4-42
1-43
2-83
3-63
4-83
1 -Ì4
2-84
3-é 4
4—64
1-65
2-85
3 -M
174.5
176.8
INITIAL OUAJTF1
OUTPUT PER HOUft OF ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
1977*100
IN IT IA L QUARTER
TERMINAL
quarter
4-80
1-61
2-6 1
3-6 1
4-81
1-62
6. 2
2-61
3.3
0 .4
3-6 1
3.4
2. 0
3 .6
4-6 1
1.3
- 0 .3
—
0.6
-4 .6
4-82
1-63
2-63
3-83
4-63
1-84
2-64
3—84
4-64
1-65
2-65
100. 6
101.5
100.3
100.9
1-62
1.5
0.4
0 .4
- 1.2
2 .4
2-62
0 .9
- 0.2
-0 .3
- 1.6
0.0
- 2 .4
0.2
—
0.6
0.8
0.0
1.1
3-82
100.5
1- 8 1
3-62
2-82
0.3
100. 3
100.9
2.4
101.6
4-62
I .3
0.6
0 .7
0. 1
1.3
0 .9
2. 6
2.8
1-63
1.4
0.8
0 .9
0.5
1.5
1.3
2 .5
2. 6
2.4
2-83
1. 8
1.4
1.5
1.2
2.2
2. 1
3.3
3.6
4 .0
102.2
103.6
5.6
3-63
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.3
2.2
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.2
2 .7
4-63
1 .9
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.2
2.1
2 .9
3.0
3.1
3.3
2. 1
1.5
1-64
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.6
2.4
2.4
3 .0
3.1
3.2
3.4
2 .7
2.7
3.9
2-84
2.2
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.6
2. 6
3.3
3.4
3 .5
3.7
3.3
3.5
4 .4
5.0
3-84
2.1
1.9
2.0
1. 8
2.4
2 .5
3 .0
3.1
3.1
3.2
2. 8
2.8
3.2
2.9
0.7
4-64
2.2
1.9
2. 0
1.9
2 .5
2.5
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.8
2. 8
3 .2
2.9
1.9
3.0
1-65
1. 8
1.6
1.6
1.5
2 .0
2.3
2.3
2.3
1. 8
1.7
1.7
1.1
-0.1
—0*6
-4 .0
1.9
2 .3
104. 3
104.7
105.7
L07.0
107.2
L08.0
106.9
2-85
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
1. 8
1.6
1.6
1.2
0 .3
0. 1
- 1 .3
1.5
3-85
1 .9
1.7
1. 8
1.6
2.1
2. 0
2 .4
2 .4
2 .3
2 .3
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.0
1.0
0 .4
2.6
3.8
4-80
1-61
2-81
3-61
4—81
1-82
2-82
3 -8 2
4-82
1-83
2-83
3-63
4—6 3
1—84
2-84
3-84
4-84
1-85
2-85
107.3
108.3
IN IT IA L QUARTER
■F*fcPAKED“ &T
DECEMBER 3 ,
10
FEDERAL R ESER Vb
1985
RAM*-
\Jh
S I.
L Ü U IS
P R O DU C T I V I T Y,
RAT I 0
COMPENSATION,
AND LABOR COSTS
SCALE
RAT I 0
I97 7 - I O O
SEASONALLY
197 7 - 1 0 0
80 eft C t !
f£ AC EW TA®ES
LATEST
AAE AKWOAl
DATA riO T T E D .
RATES Of
CHAJ4CE F 0* fE K IO O S
P*£FA*LB
TERMINAL
QUARTER
L A £ {*
ir
F EDÉJUU.
A Ê S tA V t
OAMK Of
ST
L O 0 IS
1-64
2—84
CO STS» B U S lN f SS SECTOR
Af#iU AL RATES OF CHANCE
2-61
1-61
4.1
5 .6
7.1
3—6 1
5.7
6.5
5.6
3-61
4-81
1-62
2-82
3-82
4-62
1-63
2-63
1977-100
3-63
4-83
3-64
4—64
1-65
«D
T
<N
1-61
2-61
2 -62
O Ef A_RTH£N7 OF
IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-60
4-61
U .S .
IMOICATE-O
3RD OUAR T £ ft
IFNI T L A 6 0 *
CO*f>OUNOEP
_
SCALE
ADJUSTED
136.5
140.9
142.9
147.1
7.3
8.4
9 .0
12.3
7.5
6.3
0 .7
10.2
8.1
7.0
8.5
8 .9
9 .9
8 .7
150.0
153.4
9 .4
3-62
7 .4
7.9
8. 1
8 .7
7.5
7.2
5.0
4-62
6. 6
7.0
7.0
7 .2
6. 0
5 .3
3.3
1 *6
1-63
6.1
6.4
6.3
6 .4
5.2
4. 5
3.0
1 »9
2.3
2-63
5. 1
5.3
5.0
4 .9
3.7
2 .9
1 .3
0.1
—0 . 6
- 3 .5
155.3
155.9
156.8
155.4
3-63
4 .6
4 .6
4 .4
4 .2
3.1
2 .3
0 .9
-0 . 1
-0 .7
- 2.2
- 0.8
4-6 3
4 .6
4 .6
4 .4
4 .2
3.2
2.6
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.0
1. 8
4 .5
1-64
4 .4
4.4
4 .2
4 .0
3.1
2.5
1.6
1-0
0 .9
0.6
2.0
3 .4
2 .3
155.1
156.6
157.7
2-84
3.9
3.6
3*6
3 .4
2.5
1.9
1.0
0.4
0 .3
- 0. 2
0 .7
1.2
- 0 .4
-3 .0
3-84
3 .9
3.8
3 .6
3 .4
2. 6
2. 1
1.3
0 .9
0.8
0.5
1.3
1.9
1.0
0 .4
3.9
A—64
3.7
3.6
3 .4
3.2
2.5
2.0
1.3
0 .9
0.8
0.6
1.3
1.7
1.0
0. 6
2.4
1.0
2 .9
2.6
2 .7
9.1
156.5
158 .0
158.4
1-65
4 .0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.0
2.6
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
2.4
4 .6
5.0
2-65
3 .9
3.8
3.6
3.5
2 .9
2 .5
2. 0
1.7
1.7
1.6
2.3
2 .7
2 .5
2 .5
3.9
3.9
5.4
1.7
3-65
3.7
3.7
3 .5
3 .4
2.8
2 .4
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
2.2
2.6
2.3
2 .3
3 .4
3.3
4.1
1.6
1.5
4 -ê ô
1-61
3-81
4-81
1 - ft T
M 2
1-82
4-82
l- * 3
3
3-S3
4-83
l- «4
2-64
3 -6 4
4-64
1-65
2 -9 5
2 -9
161.9
162.6
163.2
INITIAL QUA* TEW
F tE P A R E D
D EC EN C E*
11
B T ~K PW A l R E S E R V E BAH*
3 , 1985
OF
S T.
LO U I S
frfiQSS N ATIO NAL RftQPUCT IN CURREN T D O LLARS
COM POUND60 ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE
TERM INAL
QUARTER
2 -8
G LU O N S OF
DOLLARS
fN * M L RATES
IN IT IA L QUARTER
1-81
2-81
0 .3
11.3
3-61
4-6 1
1-82
2-62
3-82
4-82
1-83
2-03
3-63
4-03
1-04
2-64
3-64
4-84
1-85
2-85
3—85
1
3 ,0 1 7 .7
3 ,0 9 9 .6
~ },r r c .4
1-62
4 .5
4.2
0.8
2-62
4.8
4 .7
2.6
3-62
4 .4
4 .3
2. 6
4 .3
2.5
4-62
4 .4
4.3
2 .9
3. 1
4 .3
3.4
4. 2
1-83
4.8
4.7
3.6
3 .9
5.0
4.6
5. 7
7.2
2-63
5 .6
5.6
4.8
5 .3
6 .4
6 .5
7. 9
9.7
12.3
3-63
5.9
6.0
5.3
6.8
7.0
8. 1
9.4
10.6
8.9
4-63
6 .4
6.5
6. 0
7.5
7.8
8. 9
10.0
11.0
10.4
1 1. 8
1-84
7.3
7.4
7.1
0 .7
9 .0
10. 2
11.4
12.5
12.5
14.4
17.0
2-84
7.4
7.6
7.3
8 .7
9.1
10. 0
11.0
11.8
11.7
12. 6
13.0
9.1
3-64
7.3
7.5
7.1
0.4
8.7
9. 5
10.3
10 .8
10.5
10.9
10.6
7 .5
6. 0
4 -6 4
7.1
7.2
6 .9
7 .3
8.1
8.3
8. 9
9.5
9.8
9 .4
9 .5
9 .0
6 .4
5. 1
4 .3
- 0.2
3, 1L2 .6
6.2
7 .7
3, 159.5
3, 179.4
3 ,2 1 2 .5
3 ,2 6 8 .7
3 ,3 6 5 . 1
3 ,4 3 7 .5
3 ,5 3 5 .0
3 ,6 7 6 .5
3 ,7 5 7 .5
3 ,8 1 2 .2
3 ,8 5 2 .5
1-65
7.1
7.2
6 .9
7 .3
8.0
8. 1
8. 7
9.2
9 .5
9. 1
9. 1
8.6
6. 6
5.7
5.6
6.9
2-65
6 .9
7.0
6.8
7. 1
7 .7
7.8
8. 3
8.7
8 .9
8.5
8.4
7 .9
6. 1
5.4
5.2
5.7
4.5
3-85
6 .9
7.0
6 .7
7 .6
7.7
8. 1
0. T "
8.6
8. 2
Ó. f
Î .6
¿>. 1
5.5
5 .4
“5.1
5. i
5.Ô
4-85
6.8
6.9
6. 6
7 .4
7.5
7. 9
8.3
8.3
8.0
7.9
7 .4
6. 1
4 .6
57^“
4.8
5 .4
5.9
5.9
1-81
2-61
3-61
1-82
2-62
3-82
4-82
1-83
2-63
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-64
4-64
1-85
2-85
3-85
4-81
3-84
3 ,9 1 7 .5
3 ,9 6 0 .6
4 ,0 1 6 .9
4 , 0 7 5 .I
p
IN IT IA L QUARTER
PRELIMINARY
GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ,ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
B IL I IONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
IN IT IA L 1QUARTER
TERMINAL
quarter
1-61
2-61
3-61
2-61
- I .3
3-61
0.2
4-61
- 1 .7
- 1 .9
- 5 .5
1-62
- 2.8
- 3 .3
—5 .7
4-61
1-82
2-02
3-82
4—82
1-83
2-83
3-83
4-63
1-64
2-84
3-64
4-64
1-85
2-85
3-65
3, 250.2
1. 8
3, 264.6
3, 219 .0
- 5 .9
3, 170.4
2-62
- 2.0
- 2.2
-3 .4
- 2 .4
1 .2
3-6 2
- 2.2
- 2 .4
-3 .4
-2 .7
- 1.0
-3 . ¿
4-82
- 1.8
- 1 .9
- 2.6
- 1 .9
- 0 .5
-1 .3
0.6
1-63
- 1.1
- 1.1
- 1 .5
- 0 .7
0. 6
0 .4
2.3
4.0
2-63
0.0
0. 1
-0.1
0.8
2.2
2 .5
4 .5
6.4
8.9
3, 179.9
3, T O .Ç —
3, 159. 3
3, 190.6
3-63
0.4
0.6
0 .4
1.3
2.6
2.8
4.4
5.7
6.5
4 .3
4-63
1.1
1.3
1.3
2.1
3 .3
3.7
5.1
6.3
7.0
6.1
C»
o
3, 259.3
1-64
1.9
2.2
2.2
3 .1
4 .3
4.8
6.1
7.3
8. 1
7 .9
9 .7
11.4
293.4
3,
3, 357 .2
3, 449.4
2-64
2.1
2.4
2.5
3 .3
4 .4
4 .0
¿.0
6.9
7.5
7.2
8. 1
8.2
5.1
3-64
2.1
2.4
2.4
3.2
4 .2
4.5
5.5
6.2
6.6
6. 1
6. 6
6.1
3.6
2. 1
4-64
2. 0
2.3
2 .3
3.0
3.8
4. 1
4 .9
5.5
5.7
5.2
5.4
4.7
2.6
1.3
0. 6
2.4
3, 492.6
3, 510.4
3,,514.6"
1-65
2.1
2.4
3 .0
3.8
4. 1
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.0
5. 1
4 .5
2 .9
2.1
2.1
3.7
2-65
2.1
2.3
2 .3
2 .9
3 .6
3.0
4.5
4.9
5.0
4.5
4.5
3 .9
2 .5
1.9
1.8
2.4
1.1
3-65
2.1
2.3
2 .4
2.9
3 .6
3.8
4.3
4.7
4.8
4.3
4.3
3.8
2.6
2. 1
2.1
2.6
2.1
3.0
4 -65
2 .1
2.3
2 .4
2 .9
3 .5
3.6
4 .2
4.5
4.5
4.1
4.1
3 .6
2 .6
2.1
2 .2
2.5
2.2
2.7
___________ 1-81
2-61
3-61
4-81
1-82
2-62
3-62
4-82
1-83
2-63
3-63
4-63
1-84
2-64
3-64
4-64
1-65
2-65
3,,547.8
3, 557.4
3, 584. 1
2 .4
3 ,6 0 5 .OP
3-65_____________
_____________________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER___________________________________________________________________________
P - PRELIMINARY__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
PREPARED 8Y FE DERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
J7WUASV 25“, 1 * * 5
12
GROSS
RATIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF
NATIONAL
QUARTERLY
DOLLARS
PRODUCT
T O T A L S AT ANNUAL
SEASONALLY
RATIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
RATES
ADJUSTED
4.4
4. 2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2 . 8
2. 6
0
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
3.2
3. I
3.0
2.9
2. 8
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
SOURCE-.
PERCENTAGES
LATEST
ARE
ANNUAL
DATA P L OT T E D t
RATES
OF CHAN6E FOR P E R I O D S
4TH QUARTER
1984
U.S.
1985
DEPARTMENT
1986
OF COMMERCE
INDICATED.
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED
13
BY F E D E R A L
RESERVE
BANK
OF S T .
LOUIS
2.7
GENERAL
RATIO
PRICE
INDEX*
SCALE
RATIO
SCALE
1982-100
1982-100
1978
■AS
OSED
1979
IN
P E R C E N T AÔ ES
LATEST
1980
HATIOM AL
ARE
IH C O ae
AJSHUAL
DATA P L O T T E D :
1981
1982
1983
ACCOONTS
RATES
OF
1984
SO BR C E.
CHAJWE
PO *
P E R IO D S
O .S .
1985
D EPAAT H tM T
1986
Of
COMMERCE
IN D IC A T E D .
4TH Q UARTER P R E L I i l H A U Y
P R EP A R E ©
BY F E D E R A L
R ES€RV E
BANK
Of
$T.
L O ilS
_________________ IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT_______________________
COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
1952 ■ 100
QUA R T S _______________________________________ _________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1-81
2-61
3-81
4—6 1 1-82
2-82
3-62
4—8 2 1-83
2-63
3-63
4—8 3 1-84
2-84
3-84
A—84
1-65
2-85
3-65
2-8 I
6 .7
3-61
8.0
4-61
8.1
8.8
8.3
1-02
7 .6
7.8
7 .1
9 2 .8
9 .4
94 .9
96.8
5 .9
98 .2
2-6 2
7 .0
7.1
6 .4
5 .A
5 .0
3-02
6.8
6.8
6. 2
5 .5
5.4
5.8
4-82
6 .4
6.3
5.7
5 .1
4.8
4 .7
3.6
1-63
5 .9
5.8
5.2
4 .6
4.3
4 .0
3.2
2.8
2-63
5 .6
5.5
4 .9
A.A
4 .1
3.8
3.2
3.0
9 9 .4
160.8
101.7
102 .4
3.2
iò i.i
3-63
5.5
5.4
4 .9
4 .4
4 .2
4 .0
3.6
3.6
3.9
4.7
A—83
5.3
5.2
4 .7
4 .3
4 .1
3 .9
3.6
3.5
3.8
4. I
3.5
1-64
5.3
5.2
4.8
4. A
4 .2
4. 1
3.8
3.8
4.1
4 .4
4 .3
5 .0
2—6 A
5.2
5.1
4 .7
4 .3
4.1
4 .0
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.3
4. 1
4 .4
3 .8
3—
6A
5.1
5.0
4 .6
4 .3
4 .1
4 .0
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.0
4.2
3.8
3.8
4.0
4 .1
3 .8
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.0
10A.4
4-8 4
5 .0
4.9
4 .5
4 .2
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.0
4. 1
1-65
4 .9
4.7
4 .4
4. 1
4 .0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
2—6 5
4 .8
4.6
4 .3
4. I
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3-65
4.7
4.5
A .4
4.Ô
3 .9
3 .8
3.6
4-6 5
4 .6
4.5
4 .2
3 .9
3.8
3.7
3 .6
1-82
2-9?
3-62
i- n
2 -S I
4 -e ;
.
105.3
106.6
5 .6
107.6
106.6
109.6
110. A
3.8
3.9
3.7
3 .8
3 .5
3 .4
3.3
3.1
3.3
5”.7
4.7
4 .À
3 .4
3 .4
3 .4
4 .J '
y .i -
4.1
2.*
3 .6
3.6
3 .7
3 .6
3 .6
3 .4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.3
4-62
1-83
2-63
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-84
3—8 A
A—6A
1-85
2-85
3-65
111.3
m .i
1 1 3 .OP
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PR£LIMINAEV________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L
JA N U A R Y 2 2 , 1 9 8 6
14
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
_______________________________________________________________ P E R S Q N A l
C O N SU M PT IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN C UR REN T
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL H A T ES O F CHANGE
Q Q I l a R S______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________ ________________ ______________ ____ __________________________________________________ BILLIONS OF
TERMINAL
IN IT I AL QUARTER
DOLLARS
WAP TER____________________________________________________________ _________________ _____________________________________________________________________ ANNUAL RATES
2-62
1-81
3-62
2-81
3-81
4-61
1-82
4-82
3-85
1-83
2-83 3-63
1-84 2-84 3-64
4-64
1-85
2-85
4-83
2-81
7.4
1 ,, 696. 4
3-61
8.5
9.7
4-8 1
7.0
6.8
4 .0
1-82
7.2
7.1
5.8
I ,,940. 9
1 ,,960. 2
1 .,996 . 3
7.6
2 »,023. 8
2-82
6.9
6.7
5.7
6.6
5.6
3—8 2
7.1
7.1
6 .4
7.2
7.1
8. 5
4-62
7.6
7.6
7.2
8.0
8.1
9. 4
10.3
1-83
7.3
7.3
6 .9
7.5
7.5
8. 1
7.9
5.6
2 ,,065. 6
2 ,,117. 0
2 i, 146. 0
2 i, 2 1 0 . 1
2-63
7.9
8.0
7.7
8.3
8.5
9. 2
9.4
9.0
1^.5
3-83
7.9
8.0
7.8
6.3
8.5
9. 0
9 .2
8.8
10.4
8.4
4-83
8. 1
8.1
8.0
8.5
8.6
9. 1
9.2
8.9
10.1
8.9
2 i,254. 9
2 i, 306.
9.4
2 ,, 358. 6
1-84
8.2
8.3
8. 1
8.6
8.7
4. 1
9.2
9.0
9.9
9. 1
9.4
9,»4
2-84
8.3
8.4
8.3
8 .7
8.8
9. 2
9.3
9.2
9 .9
9.2
9.5
9,,6
9.8
3-64
8.0
8. 1
7.9
8.3
8.3
8. 6
8.7
8.4
8 .9
8.2
8.2
7 4.7
6.9
2 ,,414. 4
2 ,,439. 0
4.1
4—84
7 .9
8.0
7.8
8. 2
8.2
8. 5
8.5
8.2
8.6
8.0
7.9
7,.5
6.9
5.5
6 .9
1-85
7.9
7.9
7.8
8. 1
8. 1
8. 4
8.4
8. 1
8.5
7.9
7.8
7., 5
7.1
6 .2
7.2
7.4
2-85
7.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
8.0
8. 2
8.2
8.0
8.2
7.7
7.6
7,.3
6.9
6.2
6 .9
6.8
6. 2
3-65
7.7
7.8
7.6
7 .9
7.9
8. I
8. 1
7.9
8. 1
7.6
7.5
7.. 2
6.9
6.3
6.9
6.8
6.5
6.8
4-85
7.6
7.6
7.4
7. 7
7.7
7. 8
7.8
7.5
7.7
7. 3
7. 1
6 .. 9
6. 5
6 .0
6 .3
6. 2
5.8
5.5
4.2
1-81
2- 81
3-61
1-82
2-6 2
3-82
4-82
1-83
2-83
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-84
3-84
4—84
1-85
2-85
3-85
4-81
3
2 ',460 . 1
2 », 52 5 .
0
_
2 ,, 563 .
2 t, 606.
1
2 ,,633. 3 P
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PR EL IM INAÄV
___________________________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN
1982 DOLLARS____________________________________________________________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ b i l l i o n s of
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
DOLLARS
QUARTER________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ .___________________________ ANNUAL *ATE$
4-64
1-85
3-64
2-85
1-84 2-64
3-82
3-65
4-82
1-83
2-83 3-83
4-83
1-81
2-61
3-61
4-81
1-82
2-82
2 —6 1
-0.1
2 ,,022 .4
0.9
1.8
4-61
-0.2
- 0.2
- 2.2
1-82
0 .4
0.6
0.0
2-62
0 .7
0.9
0.6
2.1
1 .9
3-62
1 .0
1.2
1. 0
2.1
2. 0
2. 1
4-82
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.1
3 .7
5.3
1-63
1. 8
2. 1
2. 1
3.0
3.2
3 .6
4 .4
3.4
3-6 1
2
, 031 . 5
2
2.2
,,020 . 0
2
031 . 2
,►
2 ,,041 .0
2
,051 .8
2 i 078
.7
2 , 096 .4
2-63
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.8
4.2
4 .7
5.6
5.7
8.0
3-63
2 .7
3.0
3.2
4 .0
4.2
4.7
5.4
5.4
6 .3
4.7
2
4-63
2.9
3.2
3 .4
4. 1
4.3
4 .7
5.3
5.3
5.9
4.8
5.0
,r 137 . 2
2 ', 161
.8
2 ., 188 .
2 ,,210 .9
1-64
3.0
3.3
3.4
4.1
4 .3
4 .7
5.1
5.1
5.5
4.6
4 .6
4 .2
2-64
3.2
3.5
3.7
4. 3
4.5
4 .8
5.2
5 .2
5 .6
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.9
3-64
3.0
3.2
3 .4
3 .9
4.1
4.3
4 .6
4.5
4 .6
4.0
3.8
3 .4
3.0
0.1
4-64
3 .0
3.3
3.4
3.8
4 .0
4 .2
4 .4
4.3
4 .4
3.9
3.7
3 .4
3.1
1.7
3 .4
1-65
3.1
3.4
3.5
3 .9
4.1
4 .3
4.5
4 .4
4.5
4 .0
3.9
3.7
3.5
2 .7
4.1
2-85
3.1
3.3
3.4
3 .8
3.9
4. 1
4.3
4.2
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.3
2 .7
3.6
3.7
2. 6
3-65
3 .2
3.4
3.5
3 .9
4 .0
4. 2
4.3
4 .2
4. 5
4 .T "
5 .1
5 .i
4 .0
5 .4
4.6
4-65
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.6
3 .7
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.5
3 .4
3.2
3.0
2 .5
3 .0
2.9
2.3
2.2
-0.2
.1-81
¿-81
3-61
4-81
1-62
2-82
3-82
4-62
1-83
2-83
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-64
3-84
4-64
1-65
2-85
3-85
2 , 243 .0
2 , 243 . 4
2 ’,262
.0
2 , 288 . 6
4.8
2 ,303 .5
*
.6
2 ■,3^8 . 7P
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _____________________
____________________________________________________
_________________________ P R E P A R E D
JA NU A RY
15
L
BY
22,
FED ERAL
1906
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
G R O SS
TERMINAL
W M TCT
1-61
2-61
3-61
4-61
1-82
2-62
D O M ES T IC
IN V E S T M E N T
IN
C U R R EN T
D O LLA RS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
____________________________ ____________________ ____________________________________________ BILLIONS OF
IN IT IA L QUARTER
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
3-82
4-62
1-63
2-83
1-84
3-63
2-64
4-63
3-64 4-64
1-65
2-85
3-65
2—61
6.6
3-6 I
11.6
1 7.0
4-81
- 0. 6
- 4 .3 - 2 1 . 6
504.0
1—
62
- 9 .4 -1 4 .2 - 2 6 .5 -3 0 .9
^59 .5
2-62
-6. 2
- 9 .2 -1 6 .6 -1 3 .8
7 .4
3-6 2
-t. 3
- 9 .9 -1 5 .6 -1 3 .5
- 3 .2
4—6 2
515.3
535.9
467.6
-1 2 .7
452.2
- 11.5 -1 4 .2 - 1 9 .3 -1 6 .7 -1 4 .2 -2 3 .3 -3 2 .7
- 6 .4 -1 0 .4 -1 4 .3 -1 2 .7
1-63
- 7 . 5 - 1 2 . 0 -1 1 .7
409.6
15.9
425.0
2-63
- 2.1
-3 .1
-5 .7
3-83
1.1
0.5
- 1 .4
1.9
6.8
9.0
15.3
37.9
50.4
34.8
4-83
4 .9
4 .7
3 .4
7. I
14.0
15. 1
21 .6
41.0
50.5
42.4
1—64
9.1
9.3
8.6
12.6
19.7
21.6
28.5
44.3
55.0
41.0
59.8
49.2
2-64
9.1
9.3
6 .7
12.3
18.5
20.0
25.5
39.3
44.5
39.2
40.7
34.9
9.1
3-64
9.1
9.3
8 .7
12.0
17.5
18.7
23.3
34.5
37.9
32.5
32.0
¿4.2
9 .0
4-64
8.0
6. 1
7 .4
1 0 .3
l4 .1
15.9
19.4
¿6.5
30.4
24.6
23.2
T 7 .1
- 2 .7
4 .2
3.4
9.4
39.5
47.6
463.7
521.2
50.8
577.6
6^ 6 . *
6 t t.3
9.0
0 .9
4 6 7 .*
—4 .4
474.2
1-65
6.7
6.7
6. 0
8.5
12.7
13.2
16.2
23.4
24.4
19.2
14.8
10.9
-0.2
- 3 .1
- 6 .4 -1 0 .4
2-65
6.9
6.9
6.3
6.6
12.4
12.9
15.5
22. 0
22.4
17.9
15.7
10.7
1.7
-0 . 1
- 2 .9
- 1. 0
9.6
3-65
4.3
6. 2
5 .4
7 .7
1 1 .*
iY .T
13.6
19.3
19.7
15.3
13.0
6 .5
0 .7
-0 .9
- 3 .2
V
o
2.4
4-65
6. 6
6 .5
6. 0
8.0
11.2
11.5
L3.4
16.7
19.0
14.9
12.9
8 .9
2.3
1.2
-0 . 3
1.3
5.4
1-61
2-81
3-61
4—6 1
1-62
2-62
3-82
4-82
1-83
2-83
3-63
4-83
1—64
2-64
3-64
4—84
1-65
447.4
472.8
- 3 .9
444.1
3 .7 ~ T 2 .0
2-65
4*5.2#>
3-65
IN IT IA L (QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1962 DOLLARS
C0MPOUNDED
IN IT IA L
TE R M IN AL
QUARTER
1 -61
2-81
3 -6 1
4-61
1 -8 2
2 -8 2
3- 6 2
4 -82
1-83
RATES
iANNUAL
OF CHANGE
ö IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
QUARTER
2-83
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-84
-0 .8
3-61
3.1
7.1
4-61
-6 .2
-1 1 .7
-2 7 .2
1 -8 5
2-85
3-85
517.9
1-62
-1 4 .0
-2 0 .5
-3 1 .5
-3 5 .5
-1 2 .5
-1 5 .2
-2 1 .5
-1 8 .5
464.2
467.5
2.9
3-82
-1 2 .9
-1 5 .2
-2 0 .0
-1 7 .4
-6 .6
-15.2
4-6 2
-1 5 .6
-18.1
-2 2 .3
-2 1 .1
-1 5 .6
-2 3 .5
-31.0
1-63
-1 2 .5
-1 4 .1
-1 7 .2
-1 5 .0
-9 .0
-1 2 .6
-1 1 .3
2-63
-5 .3
-5 .8
-7 .5
-3 .8
4.3
4 .6
448.6
12 .2
408.8
1 4. 1
4 3 .1
422.5
79.4
489 . 0
3-63
-1 .9
-2 .0
-3 .1
0.9
6.7
9.9
1 7 .3
4 0. 1
5 5 .2
34.2
4 -63
1.5
1.8
1.2
5.5
13.1
1 4 .9
2 2 .1
40.9
51. 1
43.4
1-64
5.5
4.1
6 .0
10.5
18.2
20.4
27.9
44.7
53.4
45.9
5 2 .1
41.3
2-64
5.8
4.3
6.3
10.4
17.2
19. 1
25.0
38.0
43.4
35.4
36.0
32.5
8.8
3-64
5.8
6.4
6 .3
10.0
16.0
17.4
22.5
33.0
36.4
29.2
27.9
23.2
7 .4
4.4
4-84
4 .9
5.3
5.1
8.4
13.6
1 4 .8
1 8 .7
27.1
29.0
22.1
1 9 .8
14.4
2.2
-0 .9
526.3
575.9
-1 .3
10.4
-0 .4
-2 .2
-4 .2
-3 .0
1.7
-6 .3
7.2
1.2
-O .l
-1 .3
0.3
4.7
2.0
1 1 .1
4-83
1-84
2-64
3-64
4-64
1-85
2-65
3-85
1 5 .2
22.0
23.0
14.4
1 3 .9
8.8
1 1 .9
1 4 .8
20.6
21.4
15.6
13.4
3-65
3.5
3 .6
3.6
6 .0
9.9
10.4
1 2 .9
18 .0
18 .4
13 . 1
1 0. 7
4.7
17.8
12.9
10 .7
1-63
2-83
3 -6 3
6.3
9 .9
10. 5
1 2 .7
1 -6 1
2-61
3 -6 1
4-61
1-^2
2 -6 2
3 -6 2
4-82
IN IT IA L
-1 .4
0»
12 .1
11.2
o
11.3
7.0
o
6.7
*0
-9 .8
3.8
4 .3
4.0
459 . 9
439.6
-3 .5
4.0
4.4
4.2
473.3
-7 .7
-1 .1
3.7
4.1
3.9
662.9
-4 .7
1-65
1 7 .4
649.0
-1 1 .7
2-65
P-
4-64
560.7
2-62
4-65
3-64
551.2
2-61
oj
0»
.
PP IV A T E
455.4
445 . 0
6 4 2 . 2F>
QUARTER
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED
BY FEDERAL
JANUARY 22, 1986
16
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
GQ V E R MMENT P U R C H A S E
QF
WQOS
COMPOUNDED
TERM INAL
AHO S E R V IC E S
ANNUAL R A TES
OF
IN
CU R REN T
IN IT IA L QUARTER
QUARTER
1-81
2-61
3-61
2-6 1
4 .9
3-61
7.8
10.7
4-61
10. 2
13.0
15.3
4-61
1-62
2-62
4-62
3—6 2
1-83
2-63
3-63
DOC L A R S ____________________________________________________
CHANGE
4-83
1-84
_____________________________ ________BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
3-85
4-64
1-85
2-65
3—6 4
2-64
577.0
591.9
613.3
622. 1
1-62
9.1
10.6
10.5
5.9
2-62
7.7
8.4
7 .7
4.1
2 .3
3-6 2
7 .4
8. 2
9 .5
10.8
15.3
16.2
7.0
8.8
9.6
9 .3
4-62
9 .8
10.7
10.7
625.7
647. 1
14.4
671 .8
1-83
8 .4
8.8
8.5
7.2
7.6
9 .4
2-63
7.7
8.1
7 .7
6.5
6. 6
7.7
3-63
7.4
7.7
7.3
6. 2
6. 2
7.0
4-63
6 .5
6.7
6 .3
5.2
5.1
5.6
3.9
1.0
1.9
1.4
-1 .5
1-64
6 .9
7.1
6 .7
5.8
5.8
6.3
5 .0
2.9
4. 1
4 .5
4 .6
2-64
8. 1
8.4
8.2
7 .5
7 .7
8 .4
7.6
6.2
7.8
9.1
10.7
1 1 .3
24. 1
3-84
8.0
8 .3
8. 1
7.5
7.6
8.2
7.5
6.3
7.6
8.6
9 .7
13 . 7
15. 1
6 ¿9 .3
- 1 .5
5 .3
0.6
2.7
1.9
3.6
673 .8
681. 1
4 .4
676 .6
11
696 . 5
.0
T35 .1
6.8
747.3
4-64
8. 3
8.5
8.4
7 .8
8 .0
8.6
7.9
6.9
8.2
9 .2
10. 1
13 .2
14.0
9.3
11.8
1-65
8 .1
8.3
8.1
7 .6
7 .7
8.2
7.6
6.7
7.8
8 .5
9.2
11 . 5
11.6
f. 7
8.2
4 .?
2-65
8. 1
8 .3
8. 2
7 .7
7 .8
8.3
7.8
7.0
7.9
8.6
9.2
ii .1
11.1
6. 1
8 . ¿>
7 .^
9.4
5-65
8 .8
9.0 '
é.9
Ó.5
a .7
9.2
6.8
6. 1
9. 1
I ó .¿
12 .4
1 2 . ¿ " 10.5
11.4
ir .T
14.7
20.4
4-65
8 .9
9. 1
9.0
8.6
8.8
9. 3
8 .9
8.3
9 .3
9 .9
10. 6
12 . 2
12.3
10.5
11 . 2 I T . T ^ r y ._3
15.4
10. 6
3-81
4-61
1-62
2-62
3-62
4-82
1-83
2-83
3-63
4-63
1-84
2-64
3-64
4-64
2-65
3-85
1-81
2-81
768 .4
T77.2
1-65
794 .8
832.5
653. TP
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P-
PRELIMINARY
ftdYM fta a tT
p v * cha $ cs o f c w o s Affp s e r v ic e s sn i » « ?
COMPOUNDED ,ANNUAL RATES OF CHAMGÉ
q q u a*?
BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
IN IT IA L QUARTER
TERMINAL
QUARTER
1-81
2-61
3-61
4-81
1-62
2-82
3-82
2-61
0.1
3-61
1.2
2.4
4-61
2. 0
3.1
3.7
1-82
1.3
1.7
1.4
- 0. 8
2-62
0 .4
0.5
- 0.1
- 1 .9
-3 .1
3-62
1.7
2.1
2.0
1.4
2.5
8 .4
4-62
3 .0
3 .6
3.8
3.8
5.4
9.9
11.4
4-82
1-63
2-63
3-63
4-83
1-84
2-84
3-84
4-64
1-65
2-65
3-65
626.4
630. 2
634.9
634.6
629 .7
¿ 4 2 ,5
660. 1
-
1-63
1. 8
2.1
2.0
1.7
2.3
4.1
2.1
- 6 .5
2-63
1.5
1.7
1. 6
1.3
1.7
2 .9
1.2
- 3 .6
- 0.6
3-63
1 .6
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.8
2. 8
1.4
-1 .7
0 .7
2.1
4-63
0 .9
1.0
0.8
0. 5
0 .7
1.3
0.0
-2 .7
- 1 .4
- 1.8
- 5 .6
1-64
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.0
1.2
1. 8
0.8
- 1.2
0.2
0.4
- 0 .4
5.0
2-64
2.4
2.6
2. 6
2 .5
2 .9
3 .7
3 .0
1.7
3.4
4 .5
5.3
11.2
17.7
3 .6
3.1
1.9
3 .4
8 .4
10. 2
3.2
649 . 1
6 4 «.2
651.5
642.2
650. 1
677. 1
3-64
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.6
2 .9
4.2
4.7
4 -6 4
2.8
3.0
3 .0
3 .0
3.3
4 .0
3 .5
2.5
3.9
4.6
5.2
8.1
9. 1
5 .0
6 .9
1-65
2 .5
2.7
2.7
2.6
2 .9
3.5
3.0
2.1
3.2
3.8
4.0
6.1
6.4
2 .8
2 .7
- 1 .4
2-65
2. 6
2.8
2*8
2. 8
3.0
3.6
3.1
2.3
3.4
3.9
4.1
5 .9
6. 0
3.3
3.3
1. 6
4 .7
3-65
3.4
3.6
3.7
3 .7
4 .0
4 .6
4.3
3 .7
4.8
5.4
5.8
7 .5
8.0
6.1
6 .9
6.8
11.2
18.2
4-65
3 .6
3.8
3.9
3 .9
4 .2
4. 8
4 .5
4 .0
5 .0
5.5
5.9
7.5
7.8
6 .3
6 .9
6 .9
9.8
12.5
7 .0
1-81
2-61
3-81
4 -8 1
1-62
2-82
4*8¿
1-83
2-93
3-83
4-83
1-84
2-64
3-64
4-64
1-85
2-65
3-65
662 .4
69 3.9
691 .4
69 9.4
729.2
7 4 1 .7P
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY F60CRAL. RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JANUARY
17
¿2,
P l SPPSAeiE
pe r sonal ihcc me i n current d o llars
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE
TERM INAL
WAR TER,
3-61
in it ia l
1-81
2-81
9 .6
13.2
3-81
4-81
1-82
2-82
3-82
4-82
1-63
2-83
quarter
3-83
4-83
1-84
2-84
3-84
4-64
1-85
2-85
JLLUJJ2?iS_QfL_
DOLLARS
ANNUAl_RATES
3-85
8.9
271Ô7.6
7 2 7 2 0 7 .2
5*7 ^ 7 0 . 6
3—8 2
6.8
6.9
5 .4
5 .6
6. 6
6.7
4-82
6.8
7.0
5.7
6. 0
6.8
6.9
7.1
1-83
6. 6
6.6
5 .6
5.8
6.3
6. 2
6. 0
4.8
2-63
6 .7
6.7
5.8
6. 0
6 .5
6 .5
6.4
6. 1
2 * 3 l8. 1
2 ,3 4 5 .5
2 » 361 . 7
7.4
3-83
7 .0
7. 1
6 .4
6 .7
7.1
7.3
7.4
7.5
4-83
7.5
7.7
7. 1
7 .4
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.7
10.1 ~ n . 4
If. 4
1-84
8. 1
8.5
7.8
8. 2
6 .7
4.1
9.5
10.0
11.5 ~ T ï . 6
li.l
15.0
2-84
8.0
8. 1
7.7
8.0
8.5
8.7
9 .0
4.5
16.5
11.6
11.2
L6.5
6. 2
3-64
7 .9
8. 1
7 .6
7 .9
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.7
10. 2
L0.2
9 .4
6 .7
7\ 3~
4-64
7 .7
7.8
7.4
7 .6
7 .9
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.9
9.2
8.9
8.1
5.8
5. 7
4 :i
1-85
7.3
7.4
7 .0
7 .2
7.5
7 .6
7.6
7.7
8. 1
8.2
7.8
6 .9
4 .9
4 .5
3.2
2.3
2-85
7 .6
7.7
7 .3
7 .5
7.8
7.9
8.0
8. 1
8.5
8.6
8 .4
7 .7
6 .3
6.5
6. 0
7.0
12.0
3-85
7.0
7.1
6 .7
6. 8
f.o
t.l
7.1
1 . 1 ' 775 ~ 7 . T
7 .6
¿.2
4.Ô
4.5
r .*
ï ï ~8
~ 4.V
4—6 5
7 .0
7.0
6 .7
6. 8
7.0
7.1
7.1
77T
1-81
2-61
3-61
4-61
1-62
2-82
3-82
8.9
4-82
10.5
2 ,4 4 7 .9
2 7 *2 6.4
2 7S1Ô.2
2 ,6 4 9 .9
2 ,6 9 6 .7
2 » 7 2 3 .B
2 ,739 .2
2 ,8 1 7 .7
2 , * 6 6. 2
7^5
7.3
¿ .4
¿ .5
5.1
4 .4
“ 4 .4
475
~ 5 .T
T .i
" ¿ .4
1-83
2-83
3-63
4-63
1-84
2-84
3-64
4-64
1-65
2-65
3-65
2 ,'*47. If»
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY
____________________________________________________________ P-15RQSAW.E_ P H O N A L INCCT1€ IN I?82 POLUM*?_____________________________________________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
_________ _____________________________________________________________________________________ ______
BILLIONS OF
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
DOLLARS
QUARTER _____________________ _______________ _______________________________________ .
____________________________________________________________ ANNUAL RATES
2-81
5-61
4-61
1-81
1-82
2-82
3-62
4-62
1-64 2-84
3-84
3-63
4-83
4—84
2-63
1-83
1-85
2-85
3-85
2- 6 1
-1 .4
3-61
1 .6
4-61
0.6
1.7
- 1.6
1-62
0.1
0.6
- 1 .5
-1 .4
2-62
0.6
1.2
—
0. I
0. 6
2 .7
3-62
0.6
1. 0
0. 6
1 .6
0 .4
4-62
0.6
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.3
2.3
1-63
I.I
1.4
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2-63
1 .3
1.6
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.7
2.9
3.1
3-63
1. 8
2. 2
1.6
2 .3
3.0
3.7
4.2
4.9
4-63
2 .4
2.7
2.5
3 .0
3 .7
3.8
4.5
5.1
1-64
2.9
3.3
3 .2
3 .7
4.4
4 .6
5.3
2-64
2.9
3.3
3.1
3 .6
3-64
2.9
3.3
3.1
3.5
4.1
4 .2
4.7
4 -8 4
2. 8
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.8
4.2
1-65
2.6
2.6
3 .0
3.4
3.5
2-65
2.9
3.2
3 .4
3.6
3.8
4.2
3-65
2 .5
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.4
4-65
2.5
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
.3 -8 ;
4-82
2 t 262.9
? -n
4-81
2 , 245.7
2.2
2 , 260.9
2 , 2^5.4
-¿ -»2
2,
2 , 346.9
6 .7
2 , 391.3
5.9
7.3
7.8
6. 8
8.0
8 .7
9.6
5.9
6.6
6. 6
6. 0
2 .5
5 .4
5.9
5.7
5 .0
2.8
3. 1
4.5
4.7
5.0
4.7
3 .9
2.1
1. 8
4.1
4.2
3.6
3.0
1.5
1.1
0. 2
- 0 .3
4 .4
4.5
4 .7
4 .4
3 .9
2. 8
2.9
2.8
3.9
3.6
3.7
5.3
2.6
1.5
1.5
6 .4
3.5
3.5
3.2
2.6
1.6
1.5
1.2
L-83
2-63
3-63
4-6 3
1-64
2-64
3-84
5.4
4.3
1- «
2 , 276. 1
2 , 291.3
.
0
2 .5
2 ,m . >
1
i-e i
2 , 235.0
5.1
2 , 446.8
2 , 461.8
2 , 460.5
2 , 464.4
0. 6
2 , 482.7
2 , 532.2
8.2
“
~T~t“565. r ~
1.7
-4 .5
1.3
1.9
-I.I
2 .4
4-84
1-65
2-65
3-85
2, 517.8P
IN IT IA L QUARTER
P-
P R E L IM IN A R Y ____________________________________________________________________________
___ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ P R E P A R E D B Y
JA N U A R Y 22»
18
FED ERAL
1986
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
L O U IS
'
'
ÇQftPQftATÇ PROFITS AFTER TAXES*
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMIHAl
QUARTER
4-60
l- e i
2- 6 1
1-61
2—
6I
3-61
4-61
1-62
2-62
3-82
4—82
1-63
2-63
3-83
4-83
3-64
4-84
1-85
2-85
154. 3
141 .8
- 5 .1
-1 2 .4
7.5
- 6 . 1 -1 1 .3
- 1.1
144 .4
141.0
-9 .1
107.5
-2 3 .5 -3 0 .3 -3 0 .9 -4 4 .6 - 66. 2
2-62
- 20. 2 -2 5 .4 -2 4 .5 -3 2 .9 -4 2 .4
- 1. 8
3-62
- 1 7 .5 -2 1 .5 - 20.0 -2 5 .7 -3 0 .5
-0 .4
4-62
-1 6 .7 - 2 0 . 1 -1 6 .5 -2 2 .9 -2 6 .0
- 3 .9
1-63
-1 3 .6 -1 6 .3 -1 4 .3 -1 7 .5 -1 9 .1
0.7
107.0
107.3
1.1
104.3
-5 .0 -1 0 .7
1.5
1.7
108 .2
15.8
2-63
- 6. 8
—6.6
-5 .7
-7 .5
- 7 .2
13.5
17.8
23.9
45 .9
83.9
3-63
- 2.2
-3 .5
- 0. 2
-I. 1
0.1
20.0
24 .9
31.7
49 .9
70.5
58.2
4-63
- 1 .5
- 2. 6
0 .5
-0.2
0.9
18.0
21.7
26.3
37.7
45.8
29.9
6 .7
126.0
141 . 3
143.6
1-64
- 0 .4
- 1 .3
1. 6
1.1
2 .3
17.5
20.5
24.1
32.5
37.1
24.3
10. 2
13. 7
2-64
- 0 .7
- 1 .5
1.1
0.6
1.6
14.8
17.1
19.6
25.5
27 .6
16.4
5.1
4. 4
3-64
- 1. 8
- 2 .7
-0 .3
- 1.0
- 0. 2
11.2
12. 8
14.3
18.5
18.9
9.0
4-64
- 1.6
- 2 .4
-0.2
- 0. 8
-0.1
10.3
11.5
12 . 8
16.1
16.1
7.6
1-65
- 2. 2
- 3 .0
- 1.0
- 1.6
- 1. 0
8.3
9.3
10. 1
12.7
12.4
2-65
- 2.1
-2 .9
- 1.0
- 1 .5
- 0 .9
>.6
8.4
9. 1
11.i
10.6
- 1 .3
- 2.0
-0 . 1
- 0. 6
0.0
8. 1
8.9
9.6
11.6
4-60
1-61
2-61
3-61
4-61
1-62
2-82
3-62
4-82
4-85
2-84
-1 0 .9 -2 6 .7
3-61
3-65
1-84
11.4
4- e i
1-62
BILLIONS OF
DOLLAR S
ANNUAL RATES
IN IT IA L QUARTER
148 . 3
-4 .2
146. 7
-0 .7
-3 . 1 -1 0 .5 --16.3
140. 3
- 0 .4
-2 . 1
-6 .9
- 8.1
4.7
- 2. 2
-3 . 9
-7 .9
-9 . 1
- 5 .2
-1 0 .9
4.0
- 2 .Ó
-è.
- 6. 5
-7 .Ô
- i.7
- 5 .4
- 0.6
11.2
5.2
1
- 1. 0
- 3 .3
-3 .1
0. 6
0.5
6 .7
14.5
1-83
2-83
3-83
4-8 3
1-64
2-94
3-64
4-34
1-65
2-85
-0 .
140.6
0.9
136.6
136.4
141.1
N.A.
IH IT I AL QUARTER
* HA TION AL INCOME BASIS
H.A. -
not a v a ila b le
Pii EPAREO 0Y F E0€ftAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
JAMJAR Y*“22 , 19 96
HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The revised estimates for the s eries in the re gu lar q u a r te r ly
presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for
1984:11 - 1985:111, w i l l be published in the December 1985 Survey of
Current Business. Revised estimates for a l l NIPA s e r ie s fo r 1929-82
and fo r 1982-B4 w i l l be a v a ila b le in the spring (1986) in separate
volumes.
These data are currently a v a ila b le on tape and hard-copy
printout.
For further information and p rices, w rite to the National
Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic A n aly sis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
20230.
19
INVENTORIES
COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING
AND
T R ADE
68
64
.60
60
. 56
56
52
. 48
48
44
40
. 36
36
. 32
32
. 28
28
24
1972
1973
* RAT I OS BAS E D
SHADE D
AREAS
LATEST
DATA
1974
1975
1976
ON S E A S O N A L L Y
REPRESENT
PLOTTED:
1977
ADJUSTED
PERIODS
1978
1979
1980
D AT A.
OF B U S I N E S S
1981
1982
SOURCE:
1983
1984
U.S.DEPARTMENT
1985
OF
1986
COMMERCE
RECESSIONS.
NOVEMBER P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED
20
BY F E D E R A L
RESERVE
BANK
OF
ST.
LOUIS
@FedFRASER