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N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c

T r

S e p t e m b e r 1991
F e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t o u tla y s in c r e a s e d a t a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f 7 .8 p e r c e n t b e t w e e n f is c a l y e a r s
a re p ro je c te d b y
1 9 9 0 to
g ro w

1995.

th e O f f ic e

o f M anagem ent and B udget (O M B )

O v e r th e s a m e t w o

p e r io d s , b u d g e t re c e ip ts

a t a n a v e ra g e ra te o f 6 .7 p e rc e n t. T h e

fe d e ra l b u d g e t d e f ic it o v e r th e p r o je c t io n

to g r o w

g re w

at an a v e ra g e

1980 and 1990 and

a n n u a l ra te o f 3 .7

at a n a v e ra g e ra te o f 7 .1

p e rce n t fro m

p e r c e n t a n d a r e e x p e c t e d to

d i v e r g i n g ra te s o f g r o w t h f o r f e d e r a l o u tla y s a n d r e c e ip ts i m p ly a d e c lin in g

p e r io d .

W h i l e th e s iz e o f th e f e d e r a l b u d g e t c o n t in u e s to e x p a n d , th e O M B

p ro je c tio n s o f th e fe d e ra l b u d g e t ’s m a n d a to ry a n d

d i s c r e t i o n a r y c o m p o n e n t s i n d ic a t e s o m e m a j o r s h ifts in s p e n d in g p r i o r i t i e s . ( S p e n d i n g th a t r e q u ir e s a s e p a ra te a p p r o p r i a ­
t i o n a c t is r e f e r r e d t o a s d i s c r e t i o n a r y , w h e r e a s

s p e n d i n g t h a t is s u b j e c t t o o t h e r l a w s

is c a l l e d m a n d a t o r y . ) B u d g e t s h a r e d a t a s h o w n i n t h e t a b l e b e l o w , b a s e d o n O M B

w ith

c o n tin u in g b u d g e t a u th o rity

p r o je c t io n s , in d ic a t e th a t b y

p r i m a r y m a n d a t o r y p r o g r a m s — S o c ia l S e c u r it y a n d M e d ic a r e / M e d ic a id — w i l l h a v e in c r e a s e d f r o m

1 9 9 5 th e

a b o u t 3 0 p e r c e n t to m o r e

t h a n 3 8 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l b u d g e t . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e s h a r e o f d e f e n s e s p e n d i n g i n t h e t o t a l b u d g e t is p r o j e c t e d t o f a l l a n o t h e r
4 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s b y 1 9 9 5 , b r i n g i n g it s t o t a l d e c l i n e s i n c e 1 9 8 5 t o n e a r l y 7 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s . T h e b u d g e t s h a r e o f d o m e s t i c
p r o g r a m s , a fte r d e c lin in g 7 p e r c e n t a g e p o in ts i n th e

1 9 8 0 s , is p r o j e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y o v e r t h e 1 9 9 0 l e v e l b y

1995.

B u d g e t S h a r e s o f M a j o r E x p e n d i t u r e C a t e g o r ie s ( p e r c e n t ) 1
D i s c r e t i o n a r y

M a n d a t o r y

N a t i o n a l
F i r s t

y e a r

d e fe n s e

S o c ia l
D o m e s t i c

M e d i c a r e /

S e c u r i t y

M e d i c a i d

N e t
O t h e r

in te re s t

1 9 8 0

2 2 . 0 %

2 1 . 0 %

1 9 . 2 %

7 . 4 %

1 9 . 8 %

1 9 8 5

2 5 .9

1 4 .9

1 9 .0

8 .9

1 6 .7

1 3 .2

1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5

R o w s

8 . 6 %

2 3 .2

d o

n o t

a d d

to

1 0 0

1 4 .2

1 9 .1

1 0 .6

1 2 .7

14 .3

1 9 .1

(e s tim a te d )

1 5 .3

2 2 .3

1 5 .9

1 4 .6

14.1

p e rc e n t

b e c a u s e

“ u n d is trib u te d

offsetting

re c e ip ts ”’

a n d

s e v e ra l

s m a ll

ca te go rie s

are

e x clu d e d .

— M ic h a e l T .

T H E
F E D E R A L
R E S ER V E
B A N K of
ST. L O I IS

v i e w s e x p ressed d o n ot necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.



B e lo n g ia

C o n s u m

e r

P r ic e

In d e x

P ercent

—

C h a n g e

A ll

F ro m

U r b a n

C o n s u m

e r s

Previous Y e a r

Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

P e rcent

8

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

P re p a re d

C

o n s u m

e r

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Month
12-89

P

r i c

A n n u a l

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

1-90

8.9

3-90

7.5

5.3

4.8

4-90

6.3

4.5

3.8

5-90

5,4

3.8

3.2

2.4

5.8

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.7

5.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.7

6.2

6.2

5.4

5,4

5.5

6.2

7.6

7,6

6.6

5.9

6.0

6.2

6.8

8.1

8.2

10.1

Louis

x

19&2-84=100
11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

10.6

9-90

o f St.

4.7

8-90

e

B a n k

of Change)

7.7

7-90

10-90

1.9

6-90

d

R eserve

Month

9-90

2.8

I n

Federal

12.0

2-90

8-90

e

Rates

by

1991

127.6
5.8

128.2
128.7
129.0
129.2
130.Q
130.5
131.6
9.5

132.6

10-90

6.7

6.1

6.1

6.3

6.9

8.0

8.1

9.2

8.5

7.5

11-90

6.4

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.5

7.2

7.2

7.8

6.9

5.6

3.7

12-90

6.2

5.7

5.6

5.7

6,1

6.7

6.6

6.9

6.0

4.9

3.7

3.6

1-91

6.1

5.6

5.6

5 „7

6.0

6.6

6.4

6.7

5.9

5.1

4.3

4.6

5.5

2-91

5.9

5.4

5.4

5.4

5,7

6.1

5.9

6.1

5.4

4.6

3.9

3.9

4.1

2.7

3-91

5.4

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.2

4.5

3.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

0.9

133.4
133.8
134.2
134.8
135.1
-Q .9

135.0

4-91

5.2

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.2

4.9

4.9

4.2

3.5

2.9

2.7

2.5

1.5

0.9

2.7

5-91

5.1

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.2

3.5

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.0

1.8

3.2

3.6

6-91

5.0

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.0

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.1

2.0

3.0

3.1

2.7

7-91

4.9

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.4

3.9

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.1

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.7

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

a ll

urban

Th e

CPI

is

for




135.3
135.7
136.0
136.3

consumers.

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St.
A u g u s t 14, 1 991

Louis

C

o n s u m

e r

P

r i c

(C o m p o u n d e d
Term inal

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

I n

d

Rates

e

x

-

F o

o d

of C hange)

Month

1 9 8 2 ~ 8 4 = 100

Month
12-89

e

A n n u a l

9-90

8-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

2-91

1-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91
130.2

1-90

21.5

2-90

14.9

8.6

3-90

10.4

5.2

1.8

4-90

7.4

3.1

0.5

-0 .9

5-90

5.9

2.3

0.3

-0 .5

0.0

6-90

6.3

3.5

2.3

2.5

4.2

131.1
131.3
131.2
131.2
8.5

132.1
132.8

7-90

6.4

4.0

3.1

3.5

5.0

7.5

8-90

6.0

4.0

3.2

3.5

' .v.6

6.2

5.1

3.7

4.4

5.6

4.6

3.7

3.7

4.5

5.4

4.6

4.0

4.1

4.6

4.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

4.6

5.0

5.5

4.3

4.9

4.3

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.6

4.6

5.2

4.7

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.5

7.4

3.9

4.3

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.3

2.9

2.1

2.2

-2 .6

135.4

3.7

135.7

9-90
10-90
11-90
12-90
1-91
2-91

5.8
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.5
4.9

3.3

3.5

4.0

3.5

3.7

4.2

3 .7

3.9

3.5

3.7

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9
4.2
3.7

3.3

3.4

6.5
133.2
133.6

134.1
134.7
134.9

1.8

135.7

3-91

4.7

3.6

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.1

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

2.2

2.4

0.0

2.7

4-91

5.0

4.0

3.7

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.2

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.6

4.1

3.0

5.9

9.2

3.8

3.5

3.5

3.5

3 .3

3.0

3.2

2.2

3.9

4.5

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.0

4.5

5.1

3.1

6.3

1.3

2.1

2.0

-0 .3

-0 .4

-6 .8

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

5-91

4.7

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.9

4.2

6-91

4.8

3.9

3.6

3.7

4.0

4.4

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.1

2.2

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

4.1

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.3

12-89

7-91

3.5

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

136.7
0.0

Prepared by Federal
A u g u s t 1 4 , 1991

C

o n s u m

e r

P

r i c

(C o m p o u n d e d
Term inal
Month
12-89

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

1-90

23.7
12.0

-9 .9

8.9

-6 .7

-4 .2

6.2

-6 .0

-4 .0

-1 .8

6.5

-3 .4

-1 .2

1.2

1.9

5.0

-3 .4

-1 .7

0.0

0.0

1.9

11.2

4.4

7.3

10.7

13.6

20.0

26.7

n

e

r g

Month
8-90

of

St.

Louis

y

1982-84=100
9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

-3 .6

8-90

E

7.7

7-90

-

-3 .7

6-90

x

136.6

of Change)

0.0

5-90

e

-8 .3

4-90

d

Rates

Bank

-1 1.5

3-90

I n

Reserve

137.4

73.0

2-90

e

An n u a l

136.7

66.5

98.5
97.5
96.8
96.8
96.5
97.1
96.8
101.0

9-90

17.8

12.3

16.2

20.8

25.5

34.0

44.2

76.4

86.8

10-90

21.8

17.1

21.3

26.3

31.3

39.6

49.0

72.3

75.3

64.4

11-90

20.2

15.9

19.4

23.5

27.2

33.3

39.1

52.4

48.0

31.7

5.5

19.9

22.6

26.9

30.4

38.6

32.4

18.0

0.0

-5 .3

14.3

16.0

18.7

20.4

24.9

18.0

5.2

-9 .4

-16.0

-25.6

12-90

17.9

13.8

16.7

1-91

13.8

9.8

12.0

106.4
110.9
111.4
110.9
^108.2

2-91

8.9

5.1

6.6

8.0

8.9

10.4

10.7

12.9

5.8

-5 .5

-17.8

-24.3

-32.4

-3 8.5

3-91

6.0

2.3

3.5

4,5

5.0

5.9

5.7

6.9

0.3

-9 .5

-19.7

-25.0

-30.7

-33.1

-27.1

4-91

5.1

1.6

2.6

3.5

3.8

4.5

4.2

5.1

-0 .7

-9 .3

-17.9

-21.9

-25.6

-25.6

-18.1

-8 .0

5-91

5.8

2.6

3.6

4.5

4.9

5.6

5.4

6.4

1.2

-6 .3

-13.5

-1 6.3

-18.4

-16.5

-7 .5

4.2

18.1

6-91

4.8

1.7

2.6

3.4

3.6

4.2

3.9

4.6

-0 .1

-6 .8

-13.2

-15.6

-17.2

-15.4

-8 .4

-1 .2

2.4

-1 1.2

7-91

4.2

1.3

2.2

2.9

3.0

3.5

3.2

3.8

-0 .5

-6 .6

-12.3

-14.3

-15.5

-13.7

-7 .7

-2 .1

0.0

-8 .0

-4 .7

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




103.9
101.2
100.5
101.9
100.9
100.5

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 14, 1 9 9 1

3

P r o d u c e r

P r ic e
P e rce n t

In d e x

C h a n g e

F ro m

—

F in is h e d

Previous

G o o d s

Y e a r

Seasonally Adjusted
Pe rce n t

P ercent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

P re p a re d

P

r o

d

u

c

e

r

P

r i c

e

I n

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Month
12-89

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

d

e

x

-

An n u a l

Rates

F

i n

i s

h

e

by

d

Federal

G

Reserve

10-90

of

St.

Louis

o o d s

1982
9-90

B a n k

of Change)

Month
8-90

1991

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

=

100
4-91

5-91

6-91
117.5

1-90

22-9

2-90

10.3

-1 .0

117.4
117.3

3-90

6.4

-1 .0

-1.0

4-90

4.5

-1 .0

-1.0

-1 .0

117.2
117.6

5-90

4.4

0.3

0.7

1.5

4.2

6-90

3.7

0.2

0.5

1.0

2*1

7-90

3.7

0.9

1.2

1.8

2.8

2.1

4.2

8-90

5.0

2.6

3.3

4.1

5.5

5.9

9.0

14.1

9-90

6.2

4.2

5.0

6.1

7.5

8.4

11.3

15.1

16.2

10-90

7.1

5.5

6.3

7.4

8.9

9.9

12.5

15.4

16.1

16.0

11-90

6.9

5.4

6.2

7.1

8.3

9.0

10.9

12.7

12.3

10.4

5.0

12-90

5.9

4.5

5.0

5.7

6.6

6.9

a. 2

9.0

7.7

5.1

0.0

-4 .8

1-91

5.5

4.2

4.7

5.2

6.0

6.2

7.1

7.6

6.4

4.0

0.3

-1 .9

1.0

2~91

4.4

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.4

4 .4

5.0

5.1

3.7

1.4

-1 .9

-4 .2

-3 .9

-8 .5

117.6

0.0

118.0
119.3
120.8
122.3
122.8
122.3
Ì22.4
121.5

3-91

3.9

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.1

2.7

0.7

-2 .1

-3 .9

-3 .5

-5 .7

-2 .9

4-91

3.6

2.4

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.5

2.3

0.4

-2 ,0

-3 .3

-2 ,9

-4 .2

-2 .0

-1 .0

5-91

3.8

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.9

2.8

1.2

-0 .7

-1 .6

-1 .0

-1 .5

1.0

3.0

6-91

3.4

2.3

2.5

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.1

2.1

0.7

-1 .1

-1 .9

-1 .5

-1 .9

-0 .2

0.7

1.5

-3 .9

7-91

3.0

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

1.6

0.3

-1 .3

-2 .1

-1 .7

-2 .1

-0 .8

-0 .2

0.0

-3 .4

-2 .9

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

121.2
121.1
7.2

121.8
121.4
121.1
1




4

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 9, 199 1

C i v i li a n

E m

p lo y m

e n t

a n d

U n e m

p lo y m

e n t

R a t e

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Millions of Persons

S h a d e d

area

P e rce n ta g e s

represents

a

are

rates

annual

period
of

of

business

ch a n g e

for

recession.
periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

C

i v

i l i a

(C o m p o u n d e d
Te ra in a l
Month
12-89

n

E m

A nnual

I n i t i a l

p

l o y m

Rates

e

n

by

Federal

Reserve

B a n k

o f St,

Louis

t

of Chang e)

Honth

Thousands

of
Persons

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91
117,945

1-90

-0 .1

2-90

0.6

1.3

3-90

0.9

1.5

118,074
1.6

118,235

4-90

0.3

0.5

0.1

-1 .5

5-90

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.2

1.9

118,090

6-90

0.5

0.6

0.4

Q.O

0.7

118,277
-0 .4

118,237

7-90

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .9

-0 .7

-2 .0

-3 .5

8-90

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .6

-1 .1

-1 .0

-2 .0

-2 .7

-1 .9

9-90

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .4

-1 .0

-1 .2

0.0

117,882
117,690
2.0

117,883

10-90

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .6

-1.1

-1 .3

-0 .5

0.2

-1 .5

11-90

-0 .5

-0 .6

-0 .8

-1.1

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .3

-1 .0

-2 .5

12-90

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .7

-1 .0

-1 .1

-0 .6

-0 .3

-1.0

-0 .8

1.9

1-91

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1.1

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .7

-1 .9

-1 .6

-1 .6

-2 .4

-2 .7

-2 .3

-6 .5

2-91

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .3

-2 .0

-2 .1

-1 .6

-3 .3

0.0

3-91

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .0

-1 .6

-2 .8

-0 .9

-1 .7

4-91

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .9

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .6

0.0

-0 .4

1.6

2.5

6.8

5-91

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .6

-1 .7

-1 .3

-2 .0

-0 .8

-1 .1

-0 .8

-7 .9

6-91

-0 .6

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .9

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .1

-0 .9

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .1

-0 .7

-1 .2

-0.1

-0 .1

0.4

-2 .6

3.1

7-91

-0 .7

-0 .7

-0 .8

-1 .0

-0 .9

-1.1

-1 .2

-1 .0

-0 .9

-1 .2

-1 .2

-0 .9

-1 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .1

-2 .3

0.6

-1 .8

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




117,733
-3 .5

117,386
117,574
Ì16,922
116,918
116,754
117,398
116,591
116,884

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 2, 1 9 9 1

116,712

Louis

P a y r o ll

E m

p lo y m

e n t

Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

S h a d e d

area

P e rce n ta ge s

Millions of Persons

represents

a

are

rates

annual

period
of

of

business

ch a n g e

for

recession.
periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

P

a

y

r o

l l

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Honth
12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

I n i t i a l Month
Persons
7-90
8-90
6-90

E m

p

A n n u a l

l o y m

Rates

e

n

by

Federal

Reserve

B a n k

10-90

Louis

t

of Change)
Thousands

9-90

of St.

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

of

4-91

5-91

6-91
109,416

1-90

2.5

2-90

3.4

4.2

3-90

2.8

2,9

1.6

4-90

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.0

5-90

2.5

2.5

1.9

2.0

6-90

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.8

2.8

1.4

7-90

1.7

1.6

1.0

0.9

1.2

-0 .2

-1 .8

8-90

1.3

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.6

-0 .5

-1 .5

-1 .2

9-90

1.1

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.4

-0 .5

-1 .2

-0 .8

109,792
109,933
109,934
4.1

110,304
110,435
110,269
110,160
-0 .5

110,113

10-90

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0 .7

-1 .2

-1 .0

-1 .0

-1 .4

11-90

0.6

0.4

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .3

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .4

12-90

0.4

0.2

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .4

-1.1

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .8

-2 .0

-1 .5

1-91

0.2

0.0

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .6

-1 .2

-1 .6

-1 .5

-1 .6

-1 .9

-2 .0

-1 .9

109,982
109,761
109,621
-2 .2

109,418

2-91

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .4

-1 .7

-1 .7

-1 .8

-2 .1

-2 .2

-2 .2

-2 .5

-2 .8

3-91

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .9

- l . o

-1 .5

-1 .8

-1 .9

-1 .9

-2 .2

-2 .3

-2 .3

-2 .6

-2 .Ô

4-91

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .1

-1 .5

-1 .8

-1 .8

-1 .9

-2 .1

-2 .3

-2 .2

-2 .4

-2 .5

-2 .3

-1 .8

5-91

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .3

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .7

-1 .6

-1 .6

-1 .4

-1 .0

-0 .1

109,160
-2 .8

108,902
108,736
1.7

108,887

6-91

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .2

-0 .8

-0 .1

0.7

-0 .2

7-91

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1.1

-0 .8

-0 .2

0.3

-0.4

-0 .6

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




108,866
108,815

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 2, 1 9 9 1

6

S

e

r v

i c

e

- P

r o

d

(C o m p o u n d e d
rerainal
Month
12-89
1-90

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

u

c

i n

A n n u a l

I n i t i a l Honth
Persons
6-90
7-90
8-90

g

E m

Rates

p

l o y m

e

n

t

of Change)
Thousands

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

of

4-91

5-91

6-91
84,226

3.6
3.4

3.3

3-90

3.4

3.3

3.2

4-90

2.9

2.6

2.3

1.3

5-90

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

5.7

6-90

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

4.1

2.6

7-90

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

0.6

-1 .4

8-90

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

0.3

-0 .8

-0 .3

9-90

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.4

0.4

-0 .3

0.2

0.7

10-90

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

0.3

-0 .2

0.2

0.4

11-90

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.3

-0 .2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.0

12-90

1.5

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.2

-0 .2

0.0

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .5

1-91

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0 .2

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .1

2-91

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.5

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .9

-1 .6

3-91

1,0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .9

-1.0

-1 .5

-1 .3

4-91

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .2

5-91

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .6

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .4

0.1

1.4

6-91

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .2

0.2

1.0

0.5

7-91

0,8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .2

0.0

0.4

O

84,453

2-90

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

84,678
84,769
85,163
85,342
85,242
85,223
85,271
0.1

85,277
85,280
85,246
85,237
85,121
85,025
84,942

o

d

s

- P

r o

d

u

(C o m p o un d e d
Terminal
Month
12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

I n i t i a l Month
Persons
7-90
6-90
8-90

1-90

3.1
0.7

1.6

-0 .6

-0 .4

-4 .1

-0 .7

-0 .6

-3 .1

-2 .7

6-90

-0 .9

-0 .9

-2 .9

-2 .5

-1 .7

-1 .3

-1 .3

-2 .9

-2 .7

-2 .2

-2 .7

-1 .6

-1 .7

-3 .1

-3 .0

-2 .7

-3 .2

-3 .7

e

n

t

Thousands
9-90

10-90

Louis

of C hange)

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

of

4-91

5-91

6-91

-3 .1

8-90

l o y m

St.

-2 .3

7-90

p

of

-4 .2

5-90

E m
Rates

Bank

-3 .9

4-90

g

6-91

7.3

3-90

i n

85,036

-1 .0

2-90

c

A n n u a l

Reserve

O

o

5-91

85,077
M
3

G

O

Prepared by Federal
A u g u s t 2 , 1991

85,040

25,190
25,339
25,255
25,165
-1 .1

25,141
25,093
25,027
-4 .2

24,937

9-9Q

-2 .0

-2.1

-3 .3

-3 .2

-3 .1

-3 .5

-3 .9

-4 .4

-4 .5

10-90

-2 .4

-2 .6

-3 .7

-3 .7

-3 .6

-4.1

-4 .6

-5 .0

-5 .5

-6 .4

24,842
24,705

11-90

-3 .2

-3 .4

-4 .5

-4 .6

-4 .6

-5 .2

-5 „8

-6 .4

-7 .1

-8 .4

-1 0.4

12-90

-3 .3

-3 .5

-4 .5

-4 .6

-4 .7

-5 .2

-5 .6

-6 .1

-6 .6

-7 .3

-7 .8

-5 .1

1-91

-3 .8

-4 .0

-5 .0

-5.1

-5 .2

-5 .7

-6 .1

-6 .6

-7 .1

-7 .8

-8 .2

-7 .1

-9 .1

2-91

-4 .0

-4 .2

-5.1

-5 .2

-5 .3

-5 .8

-6 .2

-6 .7

-7 .1

-7 .6

-7 .9

-7.0

-8 .0

-6 .8

3-91

-4 .3

-4 .5

-5 .3

-5 .5

-5 .6

-6 .0

-6 .4

-6 .8

-7 .2

-7 .6

-7 .9

-7 .2

-7 .9

-7 .3

-7 .8

4-91

-4 .2

-4 .5

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .8

-6 .2

-6 .5

-6 .8

-7.1

-7 .2

-6 .6

-7 .0

-6 .2

-6 .0

24,481
24,375
24,181
24,039
23,877
23,794

-4.1

5-91

-3 .9

-4 .0

-4 .7

-4 .8

-4 .8

-5 -1

-5 .4

-5 .6

-5 .8

-5 .9

-5 .9

-5.1

-5 .1

-4 .1

-3 .2

-0 .8

2.7

6-91

-3 .8

-4 .0

-4 .6

-4 .7

-4 .7

-5 .0

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .5

-5 .6

-5 .5

-4 .8

-4 .8

-3 .8

-3 .1

-1 .5

-0 .1

-2 .9

7-91

-3 .6

-3 .8

-4 .4

-4 .4

-4 .4

-4 .7

-4 .8

-5 .0

-5 .1

-5 .1

-5 .0

-4 .3

-4 .2

-3 .3

-2 .6

-1 .2

-0 .3

-1 .7

-0 .5

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




23,847
23,789

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 2, 1991

7

23,779

Louis

C h a n g e

i n

t h e

E m

p lo y m

e n t

P e rce n t

C o s t

C h a n g e

In d e x

F r o m

a n d

It s

C o m

p o n e n t s

Previous Y e a r

Seasonally Adjusted
P e rcent

Percent

8

Total

c o m p e n s a tio n

is t h e

s u m

of

benefits

and

w a ge s

and

salaries

for

private

industry

P re p a re d

E m

p

l o y m

e

n

t

C

o

s

t

I n

d

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terainal
Quarter

I n i t i a l
3-86

4-86

2.9

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

x

-

T

o

Rates

t a

l

C

o

m

p

e

workers.

Federal

n

s a

t i o

1-89

o f St.

Louis

n

June
4-88

B a n k

of Change)

Quarter
3-88

Reserve

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

1989
3-90

=

100

4-90

1-91

2.7

1-87

4-86

e

A n n u a l

by

90.2
3.1

90.9

2-87

3.0

3.1

3.1

3-87

3.2

3.4

3.6

4.0

4-87

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.5

1-88

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

5.2

2-88

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.5

4.6

5.2

5.2

3-88

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.7

4.5

3.8

4-88

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.4

5.1

1-89

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.9

3-89

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.9

4.8

5.1

5.3

4-89

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.4

1-90

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.0

91.6
92.5
93.3
94.5
95.7
96.6
97.8
98.8
100.0
101.3
102.4
5.6

103.8

2-90

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.3

4,5

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.8

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4 .7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.4

4.2

4 .2

4.6

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Data

are

tor

the

la s t

month




of

105.1
106.2
107.2
1Ü8.4
109.7

quarter.

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
J uly 3 0 1991

,

8

Louis

I n d u s t r i a l

P r o d u c t i o n

Seasonally Adjusted

1987=100
115

1987=100

110

105

1 0 0

95

90

1 85
----------1986

1985

S h a d e d

area

P e rce n ta g e s

represents

a

are

rates

annual

1987

period
of

of

business

ch a n g e

for

1989

1988

1990

recession.
periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

I n

d

u

s

t r

i a

(C o m p o u n d e d
Term inal
Month
12-89

l

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

1-90

-0 ,6
1.1

8.1

4-90

0.6

4.9

1.7

1.8

5.4

3.4

2.8

2.8

5.9

4.5

4 *5

7.4

c

t i o

B a n k

of

St.

Louis

n

of Change)

10-90

1987
11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

=

100

6-91

6.8

6-90

u

R eserve

Month

9-90

-1 .1

5-90

8-90

d

Federal

11.8

3-90

7-90

r o

Rates

by

-11.5

2-90

6-90

P

A n n u a l

I n i t i a l
1-90

1991

107.5

8.0

108.5
4.5

108.9
108.8
109.4
110.1

7-90

2.9

5.5

4.3

4.2

6.0

5.6

3.3

8-90

2.6

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.8

4.1

2.2

1.1

9-90

2.5

4.4

3.3

3.1

4.0

3.3

1,8

1.1

10-90

1.4

3.0

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.1

-0 .5

-1 .8

-3 .2

-7 .3

11-90

-0 .3

0.9

-0 .2

-0 ,8

-0 .8

-2 .0

-3 .9

-5 .6

-7 .7

-1 1.8

-16.1

12-90

-1 .3

-0 .3

-1 .4

-2 .1

-2 .2

-3 .4

-5 .2

-6 .8

-8 .7

-11.7

-13.9

-11.5

1-91

-1 .7

-0 .8

-1 .9

-2 .5

-2 .7

-3 .8

-5 .4

-6 .8

-8 .3

-10.5

-11.5

-9.1

-6 .5

110.4
110.5
110.6

1.1
109.9

108.3
107.2
106.6

2-91

-2 .3

-1 .5

-2 .6

-3 .2

-3 .4

-4 .5

-5 .9

-7 .2

-8 .5

-1 0 .3

-11.0

-9 .3

-8 .1

-9 .7

3-91

-2 .7

-2 .0

-3 .0

-3 .6

-3 .8

-4 .8

-6 .1

-7 .2

-8 .4

-9 .9

-1 0 .4

-8 .9

-Ô.0

-8 .7

-7 .7

4-91

-2 .1

-1 .5

-2 .4

-2 .9

-3 .0

-3 .9

-5 .0

-5 .9

-6 .7

-7 .8

-7 .8

-6 .1

-4 .7

-4 .1

-1 .1

5.9

5-91

-1 .4

-0 .8

-1 .6

-2 .0

-2 .0

-2 .7

-3 .7

-4 .3

-4 .9

-5 .6

-5 .4

-3 .5

-1 .8

-0 .6

2.7

8.3

10.7

6-91

-0 .9

-0 .3

-1 .0

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .9

-2 .7

-3 .3

-3 .7

-4 .2

-3 .8

-1 .9

-0 .2

1.1

4.0

8.2

9.5

8.2

7-91

-0 .6

0.1

-0 .6

-0 .9

-0 .9

-1 .4

-2.1

-2 .5

-2 .9

-3 .2

-2 .8

-1 .0

0.6

1.9

4.4

7.6

8.2

7.0

5.7

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




105.7
105.0
105.5
106.4
107.1

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 16, 1 9 9 1

107.6

Louis

P e r s o n a l

In c o m

e

i n

Seasonally

1 9 8 2

D o lla r s

Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions

of

Dollars
3 . 6

3 . 3

3 . 0

2 . 7

2 . 4

The

personal

S h a d e d

area

P e rce n ta ge s

c o n s u m p tio n

expenditures

represents

a

are

rates

annual

period
of

of

d e f l a t o r is

b u siness

c h a n g e

for

used

to

calculate

real

personal

periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

D

i s

p

o

s

a

b

l e

P

e

r s

o

n

a

(C om p o un d e d
Terminal
Ho nth
12-89

l

I n c o m
A n n u a l

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

in c o m e

recession.

7-90

8-90

e

Rates

i n

by

1 9 8 2

Federal

D

o

Reserve

l l a

B a n k

of

10-90

Louis

r s

of Change)

Honth

9-90

St.

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

B illio n s of D o llars
Annual Rates
6-91
2,893.1

1-90

-0.2

2-90

1.5

3.3

3-90

2.1

3,3

3.3

4-90

0.8

1.1

0.0

-3 .1

5-90

0.6

0.8

-0 .1

-1 .7

6-90

0.9

1.2

0.6

-0 .2

1.3

2.8

7-90

1.0

1.2

0.8

0.2

1.3

2.1

1.5

8-90

0.2

0.2

-0 .3

-1 .0

-0 .4

-0 .5

-2.1

-5 .5

9-90

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .8

-1 .5

-1 .2

-1 .4

-2 .8

-4 .8

-4 .1

10-90

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .6

-2 .6

-3 .0

-4 .4

-6 .3

-6 .7

-9 .2

11-90

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .4

-2 .0

-1 .8

-2 .1

-3 .0

-4 .1

-3 .7

-3 .5

2.6

12-90

-0.4

-0 .4

-0 .7

-1 .2

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .6

-2 .2

-1 .4

-0 .5

4.2

5.8

1-91

-1.1

-1 .2

-1 .6

-2 .1

-2 .0

-2 .2

-2 .9

-3 .6

-3 .2

-3.0

-0 .8

-2 .5

-10.2

2-91

-1.0

-1.1

-1 .4

-1 .9

-1 .7

-1 .9

-2 .5

-3 .0

-2 .6

-2 .3

-0 .5

-1 .5

-5 .0

0.5

3-91

-0.7

-0 .7

-1 .0

-1 .4

-1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .7

-2 .1

-1 .6

-1 .2

0.5

-0 .1

-2 .0

2.4

4-91

-0 .7

-0 .7

-1 .0

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .7

-2 .0

-1 .6

-1 .2

0.2

-0 .3

-1 .7

1.2

1.6

-1 .1

5-91

-0.4

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .9

-0 .7

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .3

-0 .8

-0 .4

0.9

0.6

-0 .4

2.2

2.8

2.0

5.1

6-91

0.0

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .2

0.3

1.5

1.4

0.6

3.0

3.6

3.3

5.6

6.0

7-91

-0.1

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .3

0.1

1.2

1.0

0.4

2.2

2.6

2.1

3.2

2.3

-1 .3

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

2,900.9




2,908.7
2,901.0
-0 .2

2,900.4
2,907.1
2,910.6
2,896.8
2,886.8
2,863.7
2,869.9
2,883.5
2,857.8
2,858.9
4.4

2,869.2
2,866.6
2,878.6
2,892.7
2,889.5

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 29, 1 9 9 1

10

R e t a il

S a le s

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

S h a d e d

area

Th e

is

CPI

Billions of Dollars

represents

used

P e rce n ta g e s

to

are

a

deflate

annual

period
retail

rates

of

of

business

sales

recession.

data.

ch a n g e

for

periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

R

e

t a

i l

S

a

l e

s

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Month
12-89
1-90

I n i t i a l
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

22.4

2-90

i n

8-90

7-90

1

A n n u a l

9

8

2

Rates

- 8

4

D

by

o

Federal

l l a

Reserve

B a n k

of

St.

4-91

5-91

Louis

r s

of Change)
H illio n s of
Dollars

Month

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

6-91

118,271
117,307

5.3

-9 .4

3-90

0.5

-9 .0

-8 .6

4-90

-1 .7

-8 .6

-8 .2

-7 .8

5-90

-2 .4

-7 .8

-7 .2

-6 .6

6-90

-1 .4

-5 .5

-4 .5

-3 .2

-0 .7

7-90

-1 .2

-4 .7

-3 .7

-2 .5

-0 .7

1.7

-0 .5

-3 .2

-2 .1

-1 .0

-3 .4

-6 .2

-1 .3

-0 .3

-1 .7

-2 .3

1.8

116,434
115,649
115,126

-5 .3
4.0

115,505
115,455
114,844

8-90

-1 .9

-4 .9

-4 .2

9-90

“ 1.5

-4.1

-3 .3

-2 .4

10-90

-2 .3

-4 .7

-4 .1

-3 .4

-2 .7

-2 .2

-3 .6

-4 .7

-3 .9

-9 .3

11-90

-2 .0

-4 ,2

-3 .6

-2 .9

-2 .2

-1 .7

-2 .8

-3 .4

-2 .5

-4 .5

0.5

12-90

-4 .0

-6 .1

~5.8

-5 .5

-5 .2

-5 .2

-6 ,7

-7 .9

-8 .3

-11.4

-1 2.4

-23.7

1-91

-5 .3

-7 .3

-7 .1

-7 .0

-6 .9

-7 .1

-8 .5

-9 .8

-10.5

-13.4

-14.7

-2 1 .4

-19.0

2-91

-3 .3

-5 .0

-4 .7

-4 .3

-3 .9

-3 .8

-4 .7

-5 .3

-5 .2

-6 .5

-5 .8

-7 .8

1.4

3-91

-2 .8

-4 .4

-4 .0

-3 .6

-3 .3

-3 .0

-3 .8

-4 .2

-3 .9

-4 .8

-3 .9

-5 .0

4-91

-3 .1

-4 .6

-4 .2

-3 .9

-3 .5

-3 .4

-4 .1

-4 .5

-4 .2

-5.1

-4 .3

-5 .3

5-91

-2 .3

-3 .7

-3 .0

-2 .7

-3 .2

-2 .3

6-91

-2 .2

-3 .5

7-91

-1 .9

-3 .1

12-89

1-90

R e ta il

sales

data

115,017
114,086
114,134
111,587
109,646
26.8

111,837

2.2

14.8

3.9

112,198

0.0

7.2

-1 .4

-6 .4

8.1

2.5

1.8

10.8

111,579
112,535

-2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .3

-2 .8

-2 .8

2.1

-3 .1

-2 .7

-2 .4

-2 .1

-2 .6

-2 .8

-2 .5

-3 .0

-2 .1

-2 .5

1.5

6.2

1.6

0.9

4.8

-0 .9

-2 .8

-2 .4

-2 .0

-1 .8

-2 .2

-2 .3

-2.Q

-2 .4

-1 .6

-1 .8

1.8

5.7

2.0

1.5

4.2

1.1

3.2

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

deflated

by

-3 .3




CPI-U

112,448
112,743

C1982~84-100).

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 13, 1 9 9 1

11

I n v e n t o r ie s

C o m

p a r e d

W

M an u fa cturin g

it h

M

o n t h ly

S a le s

a n d Tra d e

S easonally Adjusted

------------ 1
------------ ------------- 1
------------ 1
-------------1
- i ------------ 1

1 9 8 5
S h a d e d

area

i

|

1 9 8 6
represents

a

i

i

r

1 9 8 7

period

of

business

1 9 8 9

1 9 8 8
recession.

P re p a re d

B

u

s

i n

e

s

s

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terainal
Month
11-89

I n
A nnual

I n i t i a l
12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 0

6-90

12-89

-1 .1
-1 .1

-0 .2

-0 .5

0.3

0.1

4-90

0.2

1.0

1.1

2.2

1.1

1.9

2.2

3.3

4.4

0.2

0.7

0.7

1.2

1.1

0.1

1.2

1.8

2.0

2.7

3.0

3.0

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.7

3.3

3.8

3.9

3.4

7.9

Month

8-90

9-90

M illio n s of
D ollars
10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

9.0

8-90

s

of Change)

-5.1

7-90

Louis

5.6

6-90

r i e

o f St.

3.2

5-90

t o

B a n k

-1 .1

3-90

n

Reserve

0.7

2-90

e

Rates

Federal

-3 .0

1-90

7-90

v

by

810,257
810,742
810,024
1.2

810,830
812,976
816,667
813,118
818,951
6.8

823,468

9-90

2.2

2.8

3.1

3.7

4.1

4.2

3.9

7.1

6.2

5.5

10-90

2.4

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.1

6.5

5.7

5.2

11-90

2.5

3.0

3.2

3.7

4.0

4.1

3.9

5.8

5.0

4.4

3.9

3.0

12-90

1.7

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.2

3.4

2.4

1.3

-0 .1

-2 .5

827,145
4.8

830,414
832,464
-7 .7

826,941

1-91

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.0

2.7

3.9

3.1

2.3

1.6

0.5

-0 .7

6.7

2-91

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.9

2.8

1.9

1.2

0.3

-0 .8

-2 .0

0.9

-4 .6

3-91

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.4

1.1

0.1

-0 .8

-1 .8

-3 .1

-4 .6

-3 .5

-8 .2

-1 1.8

4-91

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.6

-0 .3

-1 .2

-2 .1

-3 .2

-4 .4

-3 .6

-6 .8

-7 .9

831,445
828,201
819,615
-3 .9

816,893

5-91

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .6

-0 .2

-1 .1

-1 .9

-2 .8

-3 .8

-4 .9

-4 .4

-7 .0

-7 .7

-5 .6

-7 .3

6-91

-0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .9

-0 .5

-1 .3

-2 .1

-2 .9

-3 .9

-4 .8

-4 .3

-6 .4

-6 .8

-5 .1

-5 .7

-4 .0

11-89

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

10-90

11-90

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91




811,713

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 14, 1 9 9 1

12

808,939

Louis

G r o s s

N a t io n a l

P r o d u c t

Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

S h a d e d

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 5

area

P e rce n ta g e s

represents

a

are

rates

a n nual

period
of

of

business

c h a n g e

for

1 9 8 8

recession.
periods

indicated.
P re p a re d

G

r o

s

s

N

a

t i o

n

a

l

P

r o

(C o m p o u n d e d
Tertainal
Quarter

d

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

3.7
3.9

4.7

3.9

4.5

4.2

4-87

4.5

5.0

4.9

5.3

rH

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.9

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.4

D

o

l l a

r

1-89

St.

Louis

s

of Change)

Quarter

4-88

of

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

B illio n s of D o llars
Annual Rates
1-91

5.1

4.4

1 9 8 2

B a n k

6.6

4.6

i n

R e serve

4-2

3-87

t

Rates

Federal

5.2

2-87

3-88

c

by

2.3

1-87

3.6

CO
CO

4-86

2-88

u

Annual

I n i t i a l
3-86

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 0

1 9 8 9

2-88

3,733.6
3,781.2
3,820.3
4.1

3,858.9
3,920.7
3,970.2
4,005.8

3-88

4.2

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

3.8

3.1

2.7

4-88

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.0

2.7

2.7

1-89

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.6

3.2

3.0

3.2

4,032.1
4,059.3
3.6

4,095.7

2-89

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

1.6

3-89

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.7

4-89

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.3

1-90

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

4,112,2
4,129.7
<+,133.2
4,150.6

2-90

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.4

3-90

2.9

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.9

4-90

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.2

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.1

-0 .1

-1 .6

1-91

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .6

-1 .0

-2 .2

-2 .8

2-91

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .8

-1 .5

-1 .5

-0 .1

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4,155.1
1.4

4,170.0
4,153.4
4,124.1
4,123.0

S e c o n d q u a r t e r 19 9 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e s .




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

13

Louis

I m

p l i c i t

P ercent

P r ic e

C h a n g e

F ro m

D e f la t o r
Previous

Y e a r

Seasonally Adjusted
P e rce n t

P e rcent

P r e p a r e d

I m

p

l i c

i t

P

(C om p o un d e d
Term inal
Quarter

I n it ia l
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

r i c

e

D

Ann u a l

Rates

4-88

1-89

e

f l a

t o

b y

F e d e r a l

3-88

B a n k

o f

S t.

L o u is

r

of Change)

Quarter

2-88

R e s e r v e

1982
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

=

100

3-90

4-90

1-91
115.1

4-86

1.8

1-87

2.6

3.5

2-87

2.8

3.3

3.1

3-87

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.5

4-87

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

1.7

1-88

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.2

2.7

2-88

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3,6

4.4

3-88

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

4.0

4.6

4-88

3.3

3.5

3 .5

3.6

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

1-89

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.9

116.1
117.0
118.0
118.5
119.3
120.6
4.7

122.0
123.4
124.6

2-89

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

3-89

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

4-89

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3 .7

3.9

4.1

4.0

3,9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

1-90

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.8

2-90

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.7

4.7

125.8
126.8
128.0
129.5
131.0
132.2

3-90

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.3

4.4

4,2

3.7

4-90

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.8

1-91

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.0

5,2

2-91

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.7

4.2

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Gross

N ational

The

d e fla to r

is

for




Product.

Second

quarter

1991

data

are

p re lia in a ry

136.2

estiaates.
Prepared by F e deral
A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991

14

133.1
134.8

Reserve

Bank

of

St.

Louis

F

i n

a

l

S

a

l e

s

i n

(C o m p o u n d e d

Terminal
Quarter

I n i t i a l
3-86

4-86

2.5

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

Rates

D

o

l l a

r s

of Change)

Quarter

4-88

B illio n s

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2~90

3-90

4-90

of

D o llars
Annual Rates

1-91
3,754.4

3.9

^ 1 -8 7

4-£

1 9 8 2

Ann u a l

V "

3,763.9

1.0

3 ,803.3

3.1

2.6

4.3

3-87

3.6

3.4

4.6

5.0

4-87

3.3

3.1

3.9

3.7

2.3

1-88

3.9

3.9

4.7

4.8

4.7

7.1

2-88

4.1

4.1

4.8

4.9

4.8

6.1

3,850.3
3,872.3
3,939.2
3,988.9

5.1

3,999.5

3-88

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.1

3.9

4.4

3.1

1.1

4-88

3.8

3.8

4.2

4.2

4.0

4.5

3.6

2.8

4,6

1-89

3.7

3.6

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.3

2.7

3.5

2.4

2-89

3.5

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.9

2.1

1.7

3-89

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.4

2.8

2.3

2.6

2.0

1.8

1.8

4,045.2
4,069.6
4,086.6
4,105.1
4,114.4

4-89

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.2

3.0

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.3

1.7

1.5

1.4

0.9

1-90

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.3

3.8

4,152.8
4,145.6

2-90

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.9

2.1

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.5

-0 .7

3-90

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.7

0.6

1.9

4-90

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

0.9

1.7

1.4

1-91

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

-0 .1

0.1

-0 .8

-2 .9

2-91

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.4

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.0

0.1

-0 .5

-1 .4

0.2

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4,165.3

Prepared by Federal
A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991

P

e

r s

o

n

a

l

C

o

n

s u

m

p

t i o

n

E

(C o m p o un d e d

x

p

I n i t i a l

Terrainal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

e

Ann u a l

n

d

i t u

Rates

r e

s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o

l l a

4,179.8

Reserve

1-89

Bank

4,150.7

of

St.

Louis

r s

of Change)

Quarter

4 - 88

4,149.0

B illio n s
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

of

D o llars
Annual

Rates

1-91

2.2

1-87

1.4

0.7

2-87

2.5

2.6

4.5

3-87

2.9

3.2

4.4

4.3

4-87

2.3

2.3

2.8

1.9

-0 .4

00
CO

2,477.8

4-86

3.0

3.2

3.8

3.6

3.2

6.9

2-88

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.4

3.0

4.8

2.7

2,482.2
2,509.9
2,536.6
2,534.2
2,576.8
2,594.1

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.1

4.3

3.1

3.5

3.1

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.2

4.1

3.2

3.5

3.5

1-89

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.6

3.2

2.3

2.2

1.6

-0 .3

2-89

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.0

1.5

0 .5

1.3

3-89

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.7

3.1

2.5

2.5

2.3

1 .8

2.9

4.6

4-89

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.0

1.9

1.6

1 .2

1.7

1.9

-0 .8

1-90

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1 .2

1.5

1.6

0.1

1.1

2-90

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1 .0

1.3

1.3

0.2

0.7

3-90

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.3

1.8

1.7

1.5

1 .3

1.5

1.6

0.8

1.3

1.5

2.7

4-90

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.2

1.0

0 .7

0.8

0.7

-0 .1

0.1

-0 .2

-0 .4

-3 .4

1-91

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.7

0 .4

0.5

0.4

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .8

-2 .4

-1 .5

2-91

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.9

0 .7

0.8

0.7

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0 .7

0.6

2.8

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4- . 88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

00
00

-C
-.

3-88

2,616.4
2,638.8
2,636.7
2,645.3
2,675.3
2,669.9
2,677.3
0.2

2,678.8
2,696.8
2,673.6
2,663.7
2,682.1

S e c o n d q u a r t e r 1991 data are p r e l i a i n a r y estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

15

Louis

R

e

s

i d

e

n

t i a

l

F

i x

e

d

I n

(C om p o un d e d
Terminal
Quarter

v e

I n i t i a l
3-86

4-86

4-86

-4 .0
-1 -3

-2 .1

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

e

n

Rates

t

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o

l l a

r s

of Change)

Quarter

4-88

1-89

3-89

2-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

B illio n s of D ollars
Annual Rates
1-91

-8 .1

2-87

2-87

t m

0.4

1-87

1-87

s

An n u a l

200.3
i9 6 . 1
4.4

198.1

3-87

-2 .3

-3 .2

-0 .6

-5 .3

4-87

-1 .7

-2 .2

-0 .2

-2 .4

0.6

1-88

-2 .6

-3 .2

-1 .9

-3 .9

-3 .1

-6 .8

2-88

-1 .3

-1 .6

-0 .2

-1 .3

0.1

-0 .2

6.8

3-88

-1 .1

-1 .3

-0 .1

-1 .0

0,2

0.0

3.6

4-88

-1 .0

-1 .2

-0 .1

-0 .9

0.0

-0 .1

2.2

0.0

-0 .4

1-89

-1 .3

-1 -5

-0 .6

-1 .3

-0 .6

-0 .8

0.7

-1 .2

-2.0

-3 .6

2-89

-2 .2

-2 .5

-1 .8

-2 .6

-2 .2

-2 .6

-1 .8

-3 .8

-5 .2

-7 .5

195.5
195.8
192.4
195.6
0.4

195.8
195.6
193.8
188.1

-11.3

3-89

-2 .7

-3 .0

-2 .4

-3 ,2

-2 .9

-3 .4

-2 .8

-4 .6

-5 .8

-7 .6

-9 .5

-7 .6

4-89

-2 .9

-3 .2

-2 .7

-3 .4

-3 ,2

-3 .6

-3 .2

-4 .8

-5 .8

-7 .1

-8 .2

-6 .6

-5 .5

1-90

-1 .7

-1 .9

-1 .3

-1 .8

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1.1

-2.1

-2 .6

-3 .0

-2 .8

0.1

4 .3

184.4
181.8
15.1

188.3

2-90

-2 .4

-2 .6

-2 .1

-2 .7

-2 .4

-2 .7

-2 .2

-3 .3

-3 .8

-4 .4

-4 .6

-2 .8

-1 .2

1.1

-1 1.2

3-90

-3 .6

-3 .8

-3 .5

-4 .1

-4 .0

-4 .4

-4 .2

-5 .3

-6 ,0

-6 .8

-7 .3

-6 .5

-6 .2

-6 .4

-15.6

-19.8

4-90

-4 .7

-5 .0

-4 .8

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .9

-5 .8

-7.0

-7 .8

-8 .6

-9 .3

-9 .0

-9 .3

-1 0.2

-17.3

-20.2

-20.6

1-91

-6 .0

-6 .3

-6 .2

-6 .9

-7 .0

-7 .5

-7 .6

-8.8

-9 .7

-10.7

-11.5

-11.5

-12.2

-13.4

-19.4

-21.9

-23.0

-25.3

2-91

-5 .5

-5 .8

-5 .7

-6 .3

-6 .4

-6 .8

-6 .8

-7 .9

-8 .6

-9 .4

-10.0

-9 .9

-10.2

-1 0.9

-15.4

-16.4

-15.3

-1 2.4

2.7

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

182.8
173.0

Prepared by F e d e ra l
A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991

N

o

n

r e

s

i d

e

n

t i a

l

F

i x

e

d

(Com p o un d e d
Terrainal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

I n

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
1-88
2-88
3-88

4-86

0.2
4.0

3.8

7.1

8.0

14.5

5.8

6.1

9.7

8.5

6.7

7.2

10.1

9.5

5.9

7.9

8.5

11.2

11.0

9.1

13.5

7.1

7.5

9.6

9.1

7.1

9.4

8.4

5.6

5.7

7.1

6.3

4.3

5.3

3.3

-2.4

5.9

6.0

7.4

6.7

5.1

6.0

4.7

1.2

1.0

D

o

l l a

r s

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2~90

3-90

of

Dollars
4-90

1-91

-6 .3

1-89

1 9 8 2

1.6

4-88

i n

15.7

3-88

1-89

11.4

2-88

t

Louis

of Change)
B illio n s

4-88

0.6

1-88

n

S t.

17.0

4-87

e

of

12.1

3-87

t m

Bank

-4 .0

2-87

s

Rates

Reserve

152.8

4.5

1-87

v e

An n u a l

163.3
151.8

435.7
431.3
443.8
461.6
462.3
475.0
492.6
494.6
486.6
8,9

497.1

2-89

6.0

6.1

7.3

6 .7

5.3

6.1

5.1

2.6

2.9

7.9

6.9

3-89

6.0

6.1

7.2

6.7

5.5

6.2

5.3

3.3

3.8

7.4

6.6

6.3

4-89

5 .2

5.3

6 .2

5.6

4.4

4.9

4.0

2.1

2.2

4.5

3.0

1.2

-3 .8

1-90

5.2

5.3

6.1

5.5

4.4

4.9

4.1

2.5

2.7

4.6

3.5

2.4

0.5

5.0

2-90

4.5

4.5

5.2

4.6

3.6

3.9

3.1

1.6

1.6

3.0

1.8

0.6

-1 .3

0.0

-4 .7

3-90

4.8

4.8

5 .4

5.0

4.0

4.3

3.6

2.4

2.5

3.8

3.0

2.2

1.2

2.9

1.8

505.5
513.3
508.4
514.6
508.4
519.3

8.9

4-90

4.5

4.5

5.1

4.6

3.7

4.0

3.3

2.1

2.2

3.3

2.5

1.8

0.9

2.2

1.2

4.4

0.1

1-91

3.2

3.1

3.6

3.1

2.1

2.2

1.5

0.3

0.2

0.9

0.0

-1 .0

-2 .2

-1 .8

-3 .5

-3 .0

-8 .5

-16.3

519.4

2-91

2.9

2.9

3.3

2.7

1.9

1.9

1.2

0.1

0.0

0.6

-0 .2

-1 .1

-2 .1

-1 .8

-3.1

-2 .7

-6 .3

-9 .4

-1 .8

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

496.8
494.5

S e c o n d q u a r t e r 1 9 9 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i n i n a r y estiraates.




16

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St- L o u i s
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

E

x

p

o

r t s

i n

(C o m p o un d e d
Terainal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

4-86

9.8
13.7

17.2

15.4

18.3

21.3

D

o

l l a

r s

of Change)
B illio n s

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

of

3-90

Dollars
4-90

1-91

21.9

3-87

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
1-88
2-88
3-88

12.7

^2-87

4-87

Rates

7.1

.1-87

3-87

1 9 8 2

A n n u a l

20.6

406.5
418.6
440.1
461.2

19.8

22.3

22.4

24.3

19.5

22.1

24.6

25.5

28.0

31.7

2-88

17.2

18.9

20.2

19.8

19.6

17.2

4.4

3-88

15.6

16.9

17.6

16.8

15.8

13.2

4.9

5.4

15.7

16.9

17.5

16.8

16.0

14.0

8.7

10.9

16.7

15.8

16.8

17.3

16.6

16.0

14.4

10.4

12.5

16.3

15.8

0
0
0
0

17.1

1-88

-P-

4-87

1-89

487.0
521.7
527.3
534.3
555.3
576.1

2-89

15.4

16.3

16.7

16.1

15.5

14.1

10.8

12.5

15.0

14.1

12.4

3-89

14.0

14.7

14.9

14.1

13.3

11.9

8.9

9-8

10.9

9.0

5.8

-0 .5

593.2

4-89

14.0

14.6

14.8

14.1

13.4

12.1

9.5

10.4

11.4

10.1

8.3

6.3

13.5

1-90

13.8

14.3

14.5

13.8

13.2

12.0

9.7

1Q.5

11.4

10.4

9.0

7.9

12.4

11,2

2-90

12.4

12.8

12.8

12.1

11.4

10.1

8.0

8.4

8.9

7.6

6.1

4.5

6.3

2.8

-5 .0

3-90

12.1

12.4

12.4

11.7

11.0

9.8

7.9

8.3

8.6

7.5

6.2

5.0

6.4

4.1

0.8

592.5
611.6
628.1
620.1
630.5

6.9

647.2

4-90

12.0

12.3

12.3

11.6

11.0

9.9

8.2

8.5

8.9

8.0

6.9

6.0

7.3

5.8

4.1

8.9

11.0

1-91

11.3

11.6

11.5

10.9

10.2

9.2

7.5

7.8

8.0

7.1

6.1

5.2

6.2

4.7

3.2

6.0

5.6

0.5

2-91

11.0

11.2

11.1

10.4

9.8

8.8

7.2

7.5

7.7

6.8

5.9

5.1

5.9

4.7

3.4

5.6

5.2

2.4

4.3

3-86

4r86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Prepared by Fe d e ra l
August 28,
1991

I m

p

o

r t s

i n

(C o m p o un d e d
Terrainal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

4-86

-0 .6
4.0

6.1

4-87

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
1-88
2-88
3-88

o

l l a

1-89

of

St.

Louis

r s

B illio n s
4-88

654.9

of Change)

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

of

D o llars
4-90

1-91

-1 .2

2-87

3-87

D

Bank

0.0

1-87

2-87

1 9 8 2

A n n u a l Rates

Reserve

648.0

14.0

541.9
540.2
558.2

3-87

7.8

10.6

17.0

20.1

4-87

8.2

10.4

14.6

14.9

9.9

1-88

6.9

8.3

10.9

9.9

5.1

0.5

2-88

5.9

7.0

8.7

7.4

3.5

0.4

584.4
598.3
599.0
0.3

599.5

3-86

6.3

7.3

8.8

7.8

4.9

3.2

4.7

9.2

4-88

7.0

7.9

9.3

8.5

6.3

5.5

7.2

10.8

12.4

1-89

6.0

6.7

7.8

6.9

4.8

3.9

4.7

6.2

4.8

-2 .3

2-89

6.6

7.3

8.3

7.6

5.9

5.3

6.3

7.8

7.4

5.0

12.8

3-89

6.6

7.2

8.1

7.5

6.0

5.5

6.3

7.5

7.1

5.4

9.6

612.8
631.0
627.3
646.5
6.4

656.6

4-89

6.2

6.8

7.5

6.9

5.5

5.0

5.6

6.6

6.0

4.5

6.9

4.0

1.7

1-90

6.0

6.4

7.1

6.5

5.2

4.7

5.2

6.0

5.4

4.1

5.8

3.5

2.1

659.4
663.5

2.5

2-90

5.6

6.0

6.6

6.0

4.8

4.3

4.7

5.3

4.8

3.5

4.7

2.8

1.6

1.6

0.7

3-90

5.7

6.1

6.7

6.1

5.0

4.6

5.0

5.6

5.1

4.1

5.2

3.8

3.1

3.6

4.1

4-90

4.6

4.9

5.3

4.7

3.6

3.1

3.4

3.7

3.1

2.0

2.6

1.0

-0.1

-0 .5

-1 .5

-2 .6

-1 1.8

1-91

3.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.7

2.1

2.3

2.5

1.8

0.7

1.1

-0 .5

-1 .6

-2 .2

-3 .4

-4 .7

-1 0 .4

-8 .8

2-91

4.6

4.8

5.2

4.7

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.3

2.4

2.9

1.8

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.7

-1 .5

4.2

19.0

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

664.7
7.6

677.0
656.0
641.0
669.5

S e c o n d q u a r t e r 199 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i n i n a r y e s t i m a t e s .




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

17

G

o

v e

r n

m

e

n

t

P

u

r c h

a

s

e

s

o

f

G

o o d s

(C om p o un d e d
Te rainal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

a n d

Annual

Rates

4-88

1-89

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
2-88
1-88
3-88

S

e

r v

i c

e

s

i n

1 9 8 2

D

o

l l a

r s

of Change)
B illio n s
3-89

2-89

4-89

4-86

2.8
0.7

-1 .7

1.9

0.7

1.1

2.7

2.0

2.7

5.7

6.0

1-88

0.6

-0 .4

-0 .4

0.5

-1 .9

-9 .2

2-88

1.0

0.2

0.3

1.2

-0 .2

-3 .2

3.3

3-88

0.4

-0 .4

-0 .4

0.2

-1 .1

-3 .4

-0 .3

-3 .8

4-88

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.6

2.1

1.1

4.8

5.5

15.7

1-89

1.4

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.2

2.7

2.5

5.8

-3 .3

2-89

1.7

1.3

1.4

2.0

1.5

0.8

3.0

2.9

5.2

0.3

4.0

3-89

1.3

0.9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

3.2

-0 .6

0.8

-2 .4

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.3

0.7

2.2

2.0

3-2

0.3

1.5

0.3

3.0

1.8

3.1

0.8

1.9

1.2

3.0

1-91

5.5

4-87

D ollars
4-90

-3 .2

3-87

of

3-90

-0 .2

2-87

2-90

5.8

1-87

1-90

2,9

776.0
775.7
769. £
779.8
791.3
772.4
778.7
771.2
799.9
793.2
801.0
796.2

4-89

1.5

1-90

1.6

1,2

1.4

1.4

0.9

2.3

2.1

2-90

1.9

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.4

2.7

2.6

3.6

1.7

2.7

2-4 .

4.0

4.5

6.2

3-90

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.6

2.5

3.3

1.6

2.5

2.2

3.3

3.4

3.7

1.2

4-90

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.3

2.0

1.7

2.8

2.7

3.4

2.0

2.8

2.6

3.6

3.8

4.0

3.0

4.7

1-91

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.5

2.4

2.3

3.0

1.6

2.3

2.0

2.8

2.7

2.7

1.5

1.7

-1 .3

2-91

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.6

2.5

2.4

3.0

1.8

2.4

2.1

2.8

2.8

2-8

1.9

2.1

0.8

3.0

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Second

quarter

1991

data

are

prelim inary

802.2
807.9
820.2
822.7

C

o

r p

o

r a

(C om p o un d e d
Term inal
Quarter

4-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

829.6
835.8

estiaates.
P repared by F e d e ra l
A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991

3-86

832.3

4-87

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
1-88
2-88
3-88

-6 .3

t e

A n n u a l

P

r o

Rates

f

Reserve

1-89

of

S t.

Louis

i t s

of Change)
B illio n s

4-88

Bank

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

of

D ollars
4-90

1-91

275.2
281.8

1-87

1.5

9.9

2-87

12.3

23.0

37.6

3-87

15.5

23.8

31.4

4-87

12.2

17.4

20.0

12.1

0.1

1-88

11.8

15.8

17.3

11.2

4.7

9.5

2-88

11. 0

14.2

15.1

10.0

5.3

8.0

6.6

3-88

9.3

11.8

12.1

7.6

3.5

4.7

2.4

-1 .7

4-88

10.4

12.7

13.1

9.5

6.5

8.2

7.8

8.4

1-89

6.5

8.0

7.8

4.1

0,9

1.0

-1.0

-3 .4

2-89

5.2

6.4

6,0

2.6

-0 ,3

-0 ,4

-2 ,2

-4 .3

-5 .1

-15.5

-7 .0

3-89

3.1

4.0

3.4

0.2

-2 .6

-2.9

-7.0

-8 .3

-16.0

-12.2

-17.1

4-89

1.2

1.9

1.2

-1 .9

-4 .5

-5 .1

-9.1

-10.5

-16.8

-14.5

-18.1

1-90

1.7

2.4

1.7

-1 .0

-3 .3

-3 .7

-5 .2

-6 .8

-7 .6

-12.3

-9 .3

-10.1

-6 .4

8.4

2-90

2.5

3.1

2.6

0.2

-1 .9

-2 .1

-3 .3

-4 .4

-4 .8

-8 .4

-5 ,1

-4 .6

0.0

11.1

3-90

1.8

2.4

1.9

-0 .5

-2 .4

-2 .6

-3 .7

-4 .8

-5 .2

-8 .2

-5 .5

-5 .2

-2 .0

4.5

2.6

-7 .5

-4 .7

-0 .7

-3 .5

-11.2

-14.8

-1 .3

-3 .6

-8 .8

-9 .4

-3 .7

-6 .1

-5 .6

-0 .7

2.4

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

0.8

4-90

0.5

1-91

0.7

1.2
0.9

0.4

305.2
323.0

25.5

-1 .6
-1 .7

-3 .4
-3 .4

323.1

-3 .7
-3 .7

330.5

-4 .9
-7 .0

-4 .8
-4 .7

335.8
334.4
349.6

19.5
-4 .2

-5 .8
-5 .6

-6 .3
-6.0

-23.2

-9 .1
-8 .5

327.3

-6 .9
-6 .5

321.4

-6 ,9
-6 .4

306.7
290.9

-19.1

-4 .5

296.8
13.9

0.6

1,0

0.5

-1 .4

-3 .0

-3 .2

-4 .2

-5.0

-5 .3

-7 .5

-5 .5

-5 .4

-3 .6

-0 .7

-2 .4

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-91

Corporate

p ro fits

w ith




ca p ita l

consuraption

and

inventory

valuation

306.6
300.7
288.9
286.2
287.9

adjustraents.

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 28, 199 1

18

Louis

G r o s s

S a v in g

a s

a

P e r c e n t

o f

G N P

Seasonally Adjusted
P e rce n t

P e rce n t

1985

Total

saving

1986

equals

private

1987

saving

(personal

1988

saving

plus

1989

business

saving)

plus

1990

g o v e rn m e n t

P re p a re d

G

r o

s

s

P

r i v

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Quarter
3-86

4-86

4-86

8.1

2-87

3-87

4-87

I n i t i a l Quarter
Annual Rates
3-88
1-88
2-88

t e

S

Rates

4-88

1-89

a

v

i n

surplus

Federal

or

R e serve

deficit.
B a n k

of St.

Louis

g

of Change)
B illio n s
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

of

D o llars
4-90

1-91

-6 .6

1-87

1-87

a

A nnual

by

1991

25.0

641.2
678.0

2-87

-8 .2

-9 .0

-33.7

3-87

-1 .0

0.9

-9 .4

23.9

4-87

7.7

11.5

7.4

36.7

50.7

1-88

8.6

12.0

8.9

28.5

30.9

13.7

611.8
645.5
715.2
738.5

2-88

7.7

10.3

7.5

21.3

20.5

7.8

2.1

3-88

7.8

10.0

7.7

18.7

17.4

8.1

5.4

8.7

4-88

7.4

9.3

7.3

16.2

14.7

7.2

5.1

6.6

4.5

1-89

7.7

9.4

7.6

15.3

13.9

7.7

6.2

7.6

7.1

9.7

2-89

6.2

7.6

5.8

12.2

10.6

5.1

3.4

3.8

2.2

1.0

-7 .0

3-89

6.0

7.2

S .5

11.1

9.6

4.8

3.4

3.6

2.4

1.7

-2 .1

3.0

4-89

5.9

7.0

5.5

10.6

9.2

4.9

3.7

3.9

3.0

2.6

0.3

4.2

5.5

1-90

5.8

6.8

5.4

10.0

8.7

4.8

3.8

4.0

3.2

3.0

1.4

4.3

5.0

4.4

2-90

5.8

6.8

5.5

9.7

8.4

4.9

4.0

4.2

3.6

3.5

2.3

4.7

5.3

5.2

6.0

3-90

4.3

5.1

3.8

7.4

6.2

2.8

1.8

1.8

0.9

0.4

-1.0

0.2

-0 .5

-2 .4

-5 .7

-16.0

4-90

4.2

4.9

3.7

7.1

5.9

2.8

1.9

1.9

1.2

0.7

-0 .5

0.6

0.2

-1 .1

-2 .9

-7 .0

742.4
758.0
766.4
784.4
770.3
776.0
786.4
795.0
806.7
772.2
777.8

2.9

1-91

4.5

5.2

4.0

7.2

6.1

3.3

2.4

2.5

1.9

1.6

0.6

1.7

1.5

0.8

-0 .1

-2 .1

5.7

8.5

2-91

4.3

5.0

3.9

6.8

5.8

3.1

2.4

2.4

1.9

1.6

0.7

1.7

1.6

0.9

0.2

-1 .2

4.3

5.1

1.7

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91




793.9

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

19

797.2

Louis

B u s in e s s

P r o d u c t i v it y
Percent C h a n g e

a n d

F ro m

C o m

p e n s a t io n

Previous Y e a r

Seasonally Adjusted
P e rce n t

P e rcent

P re p a re d

B

u

s i n

e

s s

S

e

c

(C om po unded
Term inal
Quarter

I n i t i a l
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-86

0.7
1.5

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.9

2.0

2.3

2.9

2.9

t p

u

t

p

e

r

H

o

u

r

1982
4-88

1-89

Louis

of Change)

Quarter
3-88

o f St.

2 - 89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-9Q

=

100

3-90

4-90

1-91

2.9

4-87

u

Rates

B a n k

3.0

3-87

2-88

O

Reserve

0.4

2-87

1-88

r

Annua]

Federal

1.1

1-87

4-87

t o

by

2.9

109.4
109.5
110.3
111.1
111.9

1-88

2.5

2.8

3.4

3 .5

3.8

4.7

2-88

2.0

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.2

1.8

-1 .1

3-88

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.0

0.7

4-88

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.4

1,1

-0 .1

0.4

-1 .7

1-89

1.4

1,4

1.6

1.4

1.1

0.8

-0 .2

0.1

-1.1

-0 .4

2-89.

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.7

-0.1

0.2

-0 .6

0.0

0.4

113.2
112.9
2.5

113.6
113.1
113,0
113.1

3-89

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.5

-0 .2

-0.1

-0 .7

-0 .4

-0 .4

-1 .1

4-89

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0 .5

-0 .4

-1 .0

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .6

112.8
112.2

-2 .1

1-90

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .9

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .3

-1 .4

-0 .7

2-90

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .6

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .5

0.4

1.4

3-90

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

-0 .2

-0.1

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .1

0.6

1.3

1.1

4-90

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0.4

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .4

0.1

0.4

-0 .2

-1 .4

1-91

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .3

-0 .3

-o .4

-0 .3

0.1

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .7

0.0

2-91

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .2

0.1

0.3

0.0

-0 .4

0.2

0.4

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91




112.0
112.4
112.7
112.3
112.3
112.4

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
S e p t e m b e r 5, 1991

20

N

e

t

F

e

(C o m p o u n d e d
Terminal
Quarter

d

e

r a

Annual

I n i t i a l
2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

l

D

Rates

e

b

t

of Change)
B illio n s o
Dollar:

Quarter

3-8S

4-88

1-89

3-89

2-89

4-89

2-90

1-90

3-90

4-9Q
1,751-2

3-86

15.3

<+-86

13.8

12.3

1-87

11.5

9.7

7.1

2-87

11.2

9.8

8.6

10.2

3-87

9.9

8.6

7.5

7.6

5.2

1,802.7
1,833.8
1,878.7
1,902.6
1,944.4

<+- 87

9.8

8.7

7.9

8.1

7.1

9.1

1-88

9.7

8.8

8.2

8.4

7.9

9.3

9.4

1,988.7
2,021.5

2-88

9.4

8.5

7.9

8.1

7.6

8.4

8.1

6.8

3-88

9.2

8.5

8.0

8.1

7.7

8.4

8.1

7.5

8.3

4-88

8.8

8.1

7.6

7.7

7.3

7.7

7.3

6.6

6.6

4.9

1-89

8.6

8.0

7.5

7.6

7.2

7.6

7.3

6.7

6.7

6.0

7.1

2-89

8.4

7.8

7.3

7.3

7.0

7.3

7.0

6.5

6.4

5.8

6.2

2,062.0
2,086.9
2,122.8
2,150.7

5.4

2,191.7

3-89

8.3

7.8

7.4

7.4

7.1

7.3

7.1

6.7

6.7

6.3

6.8

6.6

7.8

4-89

8.3

7.8

7.4

7.5

7.2

7.4

7.2

6.9

7.0

6.7

7.2

7.2

8.1

8.4

1-90

8.8

8.3

8.0

8.1

7.9

8.2

8.1

7.9

8.1

8.0

8.7

9.1

10.3

11.6

2,236.3
2,315.4

14.9

2,378.3

2-90

8.9

8.5

8.2

8.3

8.2

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.5

8.5

9.1

9.5

10.6

11.5

13.1

11.3

3-90

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.6

8.5

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.9

9.0

9.6

10,0

11.0

11.8

12.9

11.9

12.6

4-90

9.3

9.0

8.8

8.9

8.8

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.5

11.3

12.0

13.0

12.3

12.8

13.1

1-91

9.3

9.0

8.8

8.9

8.9

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

9.9

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.6

11.6

11.2

9.3

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Prepared
Ju ly 30,

F E D E R A L

G O V E R N M E N T

(b illio n s
S e a s o n a l l y
Federal
Gross
federal

by

debt

debt

A d j u s t e d

trusts

Bank

2,582.9

of

St.

Louis

D E B T

E n d

of

M o n t h

T o t a l s

Federal
by

Net
federal

Reserve

2,526.4

d o lla rs )

held

agencies

and

of

by Federal
1991

2,449.8

debt

debt

held

Federal

Reserve

Federal
by

Banks

debt

held

private

investors

Federal
by

debt
foreign

investors

M a r c h

2 2 4 8 .9

4 1 4 .5

1 8 3 3 .8

1 9 9 .4

1 6 2 8 .4

J u n e

2 3 1 1 ,6

4 3 2 .9

1 8 7 8 .7

2 1 1 .7

1 6 68 .1

2 7 8 .0

S e p t e m b e r

2 3 6 2 .1

4 5 9 .0

1 9 0 2 .6

2 1 4 .5

1 6 9 0 .8

2 8 2 .3

D e c e m b e r

1 9 8 7

2 7 1 .7

2 4 1 7 .2

4 7 3 .4

1 9 4 4 .4

2 1 7 .4

1 7 2 6 .2

3 0 1 .5

2 4 8 7 .6

4 9 9 .3

1 9 9 8 .7

2 2 1 .3

1 7 6 3 .7

3 3 0 .5

2 5 5 0 .3

5 2 7 .9

2 0 2 1 .5

2 2 6 .2

1 7 9 7 .5

3 4 2 .0

S e p t e m b e r

2 6 1 5 .3

5 52.1

2 0 6 2 .0

2 3 2 .5

1 8 3 2 .2

3 5 0 .5

D e c e m b e r

2 6 7 1 .0

5 85.1

2 0 8 6 .9

2 3 2 .4

1 8 5 4 .8

3 6 3 .3

M a r c h

2 7 4 0 .9

6 1 8 .0

2 1 2 2 .8

2 3 2 .8

1 8 8 6 .4

3 7 3 ,6

J u n e

2 8 0 2 .7

6 5 0 .0

2 1 5 0 .7

2 3 0 .2

1 9 2 0 .6

3 6 6 .2

S e p t e m b e r

2 8 7 1 .8

6 78.1

2 1 9 1 .7

2 2 4 .2

1 9 70 .1

4 0 0 .9

D e c e m b e r

1 9 8 9

M a r c h
J u n e

1 9 8 8

2 9 3 8 .3

7 0 3 .6

2 2 3 6 .3

2 2 2 .4

2 0 1 1 .8

3 9 2 .9
3 8 2 .8

3 0 4 9 .0

7 3 5 .2

2 3 1 5 .4

2 2 3 .8

2 0 9 4 .2

3 1 4 6 .9

765.1

2 3 7 8 .3

2 2 9 .6

2 1 5 4 .7

3 9 0 .5

S e p t e m b e r

3 2 4 9 .5

7 9 7 .4

2 4 4 9 .8

2 3 6 .3

2 2 2 0 .6

4 1 1 .4

D e c e m b e r
1991

M a r c h
J u n e

1 9 9 0

3 3 5 1 .4

8 2 3 .4

2 5 2 6 .4

2 5 2 .7

2 2 8 3 .7

4 2 4 .3

M a r c h

3 4 6 1 .7

8 8 1 .8

2 5 8 2 .9

2 5 2 .3

2 3 3 7 .2

4 2 8 .3

C o l u m n s m a y n o t a d d b e c a u s e e a c h c o m p o n e n t is s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d s e p a r a t e l y . G r o s s f e d e r a l d e b t e q u a l s d e b t h e l d b y a g e n c i e s a n d t r u s t s p l u s n e t f e d e r a l d e b t .
Ne t federal d eb t e q ua l s d eb t held b y F e d er al R e s e r v e b a n k s p lu s d eb t held by private i nvestors ( wh i ch i n c lu d es d e b t held b y f o re i gn i nvestors). S o u r c e s :
d a t a m a y b e f o u n d in t h e
Data have been

Treasury Bulletin

and

a l s o in t h e F e d e r a l

Reserve

Bulletin;

r e v i s e d to r efl ect c h a n g e d s e a s o n a l a d j u s t m e n t f a c t or s .




21

s e a s on a l l y ad ju ste d s er ies p r e p a r e d

b y this B a n k .

Original

F E D E R A L
(b illio n s

o f

d o lla rs ,

G O V E R N M E N T

q u a r t e r l y

to ta ls

Quarters

1 9 8 4

adjusted

accounts

$

National

Cyclically

incom e

at

a n n u a l

ra te s )

$

7 1 1 .1

Surplus
Cyclically

accounts

7 4 4 .7

2

7 2 1 .9

3

7 2 8 .3

4

7 4 2 .7

$

incom e

budget

8 6 5 .6

7 4 7 .9

$

or

deficit(Cyclically

National

adjusted

budget

budget

budget

1

a d j u s t e d

Expenditures

Receipts
National
incom e

B U D G E T S

s e a s o n a l l y

adjusted

accoui

budget

8 5 9 .8

budget

$ - 1 5 4 . 6

-

115.1

8 8 5 .3

8 8 0 .4

-

1 6 3 .4

- 1 3 2 . 5

7 5 4 .4

90 1.1

8 9 5 .6

- 1 7 2 . 8

- 1 4 1 . 2

7 7 1 .0

9 3 0 .2

9 2 5 .3

-

1 8 7 .5

- 1 5 4 . 3

1

7 9 6 .5

8 1 9 .3

9 5 8 .2

9 5 3 .0

- 1 6 1 . 6

- 1 3 3 . 7

2

7 5 8 .7

7 8 0 .7

9 6 9 .9

9 6 4 .4

- 2 1 1 . 1

- 1 8 3 . 7

3

7 9 4.1

8 1 1 .8

9 9 6 .7

9 9 1 .3

- 2 0 2 . 7

- 1 7 9 . 5

4

8 0 5 .3

8 2 2 .0

1 0 1 7 .5

1 0 1 2 .6

- 2 1 2 . 2

- 1 9 0 . 6

1 9 8 5

1

8 1 0 .9

8 1 6 .4

1 0 0 6 .6

1 0 0 1 .4

-

1 9 5 .6

- 1 8 5 . 0

2

8 1 5 .9

8 3 2 .2

1 0 5 1 .9

1 0 4 5 .2

- 2 3 6 . 0

- 2 1 3 . 0

3

8 3 0 .9

852.1

1 0 3 7 .7

1 0 3 2 .4

- 2 0 6 . 8

- 1 8 0 . 3

4

1 9 8 6

8 5 3 .8

8 7 5 .5

1 0 4 2 .8

1 0 3 8 .7

- 1 8 9 . 0

- 1 6 3 . 2

1

875.1

1 0 6 0 .0

1 0 5 7 .4

-

1 9 8 .0

- 1 8 2 . 3

9 2 9 .8

938.1

1 0 61.1

1 0 6 0 .4

-

1 3 1 .3

- 1 2 2 . 3

3

9 2 3 .4

9 2 7 .2

1 0 6 4 .9

1 0 6 5 .6

-

1 4 1 .6

- 1 3 8 . 4

4

9 4 0 .0

9 3 0 ,0

1 1 0 1 ,7

1 1 0 3 .0

-

1 6 1 .7

- 1 7 3 . 0

1

9 4 3 .0

9 2 4 .9

1 0 9 6 .7

1 0 9 8 .0

- 1 5 3 . 7

-

2

1 9 8 8

8 6 2 .0

2

1 9 8 7

9 7 2 .5

9 4 9 .5

1 1 0 9 .4

1 1 1 1 .4

- 1 3 6 . 9

- 1 6 1 . 9

173.1

3

9 7 6 .7

9 5 3 .0

1 0 9 6 .8

1 0 9 8 .2

-

120.1

- 1 4 5 . 2

4

9 9 7 .5

9 7 1 .4

1 1 5 3 .8

1 1 56.1

- 1 5 6 . 3

- 1 8 4 . 7

1

1 0 4 5 .4

1 0 1 4 .3

1 1 7 8 .0

1 1 8 1 .0

- 1 3 2 . 6

- 1 6 6 . 7

2

1 0 6 2 .2

1 0 3 2 .2

1 1 8 4 .9

1 1 8 7 .3

-

1 2 2 .7

-

155.1

3

1 0 4 8 .1

1 0 2 0 .2

1 1 7 9 .8

1 1 8 2 .0

- 1 3 1 . 7

-

1 6 1 .8

4

1 9 8 9

1 0 5 5 .7

1 0 3 5 .4

1 2 0 5 .8

1 2 0 8 .2

-

-

1 7 2 .8

150.1

1

1 2 4 8 .8

1 2 5 2 .2

- 1 6 8 . 3

- 1 9 0 . 5

1 0 9 3 .4

1 2 7 1 .7

1 2 7 5 .4

- 1 6 6 . 0

- 1 8 2 . 0

3

1 1 2 5 .9

1 1 1 6 .0

1 2 7 1 .6

1 2 7 3 .6

-

1 4 5 .7

- 1 5 7 . 6

1 1 2 6 .5

1132.1

1 3 1 0 .8

1 3 1 1 .2

-

1 8 4 .3

- 1 7 9 . 1

1

1 1 3 4 ,5

1 1 6 3 .4

1 2 6 1 .4

1 2 5 3 .3

- 1 2 6 . 9

2

N .A .

1 0 6 1 .7

1 1 0 5 .8

4
1 991

1 0 8 0 .6

2

1 9 9 0

1 1 3 9 .0

N .A .

1 3 2 4 .0

N .A .

- 1 8 5 . 0

-

not

8 9 .9
N .A .

a va ila b le

Fiscal

years

A ctu al

1983
Total

-

1984

1985

1986

Estim ates

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

budget

Receipts

$

600.6

Outlays

$

666.5

$

734.1

$

769.1

$

Surplus

946.3

990.3

$ - 1 8 5 . 3

$ - 2 1 2 . 3

$ - 2 2 1 . 2

$ - 1 4 9 . 7

income

$

1003.8

$ - 2 0 7 . 8

or defi ci t ( - )

851.8

C a le n d a r
National

854.1

808.3

909.0

$

990.7

$

1031.3

$

1068.7

$

1145.5

1064.1

1144.1

1251.8

1350.9

1493.8

$ - 1 5 5 . 1

$ - 1 5 3 . 4

$ - 2 2 0 . 5

$ - 2 8 2 . 2

$ - 3 4 8 . 3

$

$

years

accounts

budget
Receipts

659.9

$

or deficit( — )

adjusted

Surplus

913.8

$

$

972.4

1052.9

1109.7

1034.8

1071.9

1114.2

1187.2

1275.7

176.0

$ -1 6 9 .6

$ -1 9 6 .9

$ -2 0 6 . 9

$ -1 5 8 .2

$ -1 4 1 .7

$ - 1 3 4 . 3

$ - 1 6 6 . 0

725.8

$

$

$

budget

years

754.5

823.5

or deficit( - )

budget

refer

to

Estim ates

from

adjusted
Office

Office

of

$

the

outlays

Cyclically
Source:

827.9

$

985.6

Expenditures

Fiscal

788.7

$

895.6

$■-

Receipts

Total

726.0

$

Surplus
Cyclically

$

835.9

Expenditures

of

- 9 7 . 7

budget

include

year

federal

$ -1 3 5 .8

which

and

$ -1 7 1 .9

from

that

are

B u d g e t ’s

data

are

based

M a n a g e m e n t

and

Budget




980.3

runs

entities

M a n a g e m e n t

budget

808.5

$

890.3

on

a

and

6

$ - 1 8 5 . 4

October

917.6

$

1029.4

$

1071.6
$ -1 5 4 .0

1 through

949.7
1115.9

$ - 1 6 6 . 2

Sep tem b e r

1025.5

$ -1 6 4 .1

1100.8
1278.1

1189.6

$ - 1 7 7 . 3

30.

off-budget.
M id-Session

percent
U.S.

844.1

$

rate

Review

of

of the

F Y

1991

Budget

(July

15,

1991).

unem ploym ent.

Departm ent

of C o m m e r c e .
Prepared

22

by

Federal

Reserve

B a nk

of St.

Louis

G o v e r n m

e n t

D

e f i c i t ( - ) / S u r p l u s ( +

)

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of D ollars

Billions

of Dollars

- 6 0

- 6 0

T o t e ul

/ \

- 1 1 0

- 1 1 0

/ '
/

\

/

- 1 6 0

'
/

V

\

^

v

\

V

F e d e ra l

A
V

/

f

\
\

n

\

- 1 6 0

V
\

\

7

'

f/ / V

\

- 2 1 0

'

^

1
1

\

A

V
\

\

- 2 1 0

/

W
*

“

1-

2 6 0

1

1

1

1985

National

1

1

1

1986

in c o m e

a c c o u n ts

1

1

1

1

1987

1

■

I

e

d

e

r a

l

D

e

f e

(C o m p o un d e d
Terminal
Quarter

n

s e

2-87

3-87

4-86

"I

1■

- 2 6 0

1991

0.9
3.5

9.6

3-87

5.0

9.6

9.2

2.6

5.5

3.8

1.4

2.3

4.5

3.1

1.2

-2 .7

n

d

i t u

r e

B a n k

of

1-89

Louis

s

of Change)

Quarter

4-88

St.

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

B illio n s of D o llars
Annual Rates
1-91

-6 .1

1-88

3-88

e

R e serve

9.6

4-87

2-88

p

Federal

10.5

2-87

1-88

x

by

-7 .9

1-87

4-87

E

A n n u a l Rates

I n i t i a l
1-87

1

1

basis

F

4-86

1

1990

P re pared

3-86

1

•

1989

1988

280.7
287.8
8.8

293.9
300.7
296.0
0.8

296.6

2-88

2.1

3.9

2.6

1.1

-1 .6

0.7

0.7

3-88

1.6

3.0

1.8

0.4

-1 .7

-0 .2

-0 .7

-2 .1

4-88

2.0

3.3

2.3

1.3

-0 .3

1.2

1.4

1.7

5.7

1-89

1.6

2.7

1.8

0.8

-0 .6

0.6

0.5

0.5

1.8

-1 .9

2-89

1.8

2.8

2.0

1.1

0.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

2.3

0.7

3.3

297.1
295.5
299.6
298.2
300.6

3-89

2.3

3.2

2.5

1.9

0.9

2.0

2.2

2.5

3.7

3.0

5.5

7.8

4-89

1.3

2.2

1.4

0.7

-0 .2

0.5

0.5

0.5

1.0

-0.1

0.4

-0 .9

-9.0

1-90

2.0

2.8

2.2

1.6

0.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.6

2.0

3.0

2.9

0.6

306.3
299.2
307.2

11.1

2-90

2.1

2.8

2.3

1.7

1.1

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.0

1.4

7.1

3.2

3-90

2.2

2.9

2.4

1.9

1.3

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.9

2.5

3.2

3.2

2.1

6.0

3.5

3.9

4-90

3.0

3.7

3.3

2.9

2.4

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.3

4.2

5.0

5.3

4.9

8.6

7.8

10.2

16.8

1-91

3.3

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

3.5

3.7

4.0

4.7

4.6

5.4

5.7

5.3

8.5

7.8

9.4

12.3

7.9

2-91

2.8

3.5

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.8

3.6

4.2

4.3

3, . 8

6.1

5.1

5.7

6.2

1.3

-4 .9

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91




309.6
312.6
325.0
331.2

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St.
A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1

23

327.1

Louis

F

e

d

e

r a

l

N

o

n

d

e

(C om p o un d e d
Term inal
Quarter

f e

I n i t i a l
3-86

4-86

5.7

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

s e

E

Rates

x

p

e

n

d

i t u

r e

s

of Change)

Quarter

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

B illio n s of D o llars
Annual Rates
1-91
762.1

5.9

1-87

4-86

n

A n n u a l

5.4

772.2

2-87

2.8

1.3

-2 .6

3-87

1.7

0.4

-2 .1

-1 .6

767.2

4-87

5.8

5.7

5.8

10.3

23.6

1-88

4.3

4.0

3.6

5.8

9.6

-2 .8

2-88

4.6

4.3

4.1

5.9

8.5

1.6

6.2

3-88

3.3

2.9

2.5

3.5

4.9

-0 .7

0.3

-5 .3

4-88

5.9

5.9

5.9

7.4

9.3

6.0

9.1

10.6

764.2
805.7
800.1
812.3
801.3
854.2

29.1

879.8

1-89

6.5

6.6

6.7

8.1

9.8

7.3

10.0

11.2

20.6

12.5

2-89

6.1

6.1

6.2

7.4

8.7

6.4

8.3

8.9

14.0

7.2

2.1

884.3

3-89

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.9

6.9

4.7

6.0

6.0

9.0

3.0

-1 .4

-4 .8

4-89

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.9

7.9

6.1

7,4

7.6

10.4

6.1

4.1

5.1

16.0

873.5

1-90

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.7

8.7

7.2

8.5

8.8

11.4

8.1

7.0

8.7

16.2

16.4

906.6
941.6

2-90

6.8

6.9

7.0

7.8

8.7

7.4

8.5

8.8

11.0

8.3

7.4

8.8

13.7

12.6

9.0

3-90

6.3

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.9

6.5

7.5

7.7

9.4

6.8

5.9

6.7

9.8

7.8

3.7

-1 .3

4-90

6.6

6.6

6.7

7.4

8.1

7.0

7.9

8.1

9.6

7.4

6.7

7.5

10.2

8.7

6.3

5.0

11.7

1-91

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.3

5.8

4.5

5.2

5.1

6.1

3.9

2.8

2.9

4.3

2.1

-1 .2

-4 .4

-5 .9

-20.7

2-91

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.8

7.3

6.3

7.0

7.1

8.3

6.4

5.7

6.2

7.8

6.5

4.7

3.6

5.3

2.3

31.9

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91




962.1
959.0
985.8
930.2
996.9

P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s
A u g u s t 28, 199 1

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102