Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1988
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National Economic Trends February 1988 Productivity growth is a fundamental determinant of the growth of real income and the nation’s standard of living. Since mid-1985, productivity’s growth has slowed, although it has continued faster than in the 1970s. An important factor in this recent slowdown has been a reduction in the pace of business capital formation. Output per hour in the business sector, a measure of output relative to labor employment, rose at a 1.2 percent annual rate from the third quarter of 1985 to the end of 1987, down from its 1.6 percent rate of advance from the end of 1979 to the third quarter of 1985. Nonetheless, such growth is impressive when compared with the stagnant performance of productivity from late 1973 to the end of 1979, when output per hour rose at a 0.5 percent rate. The quantity (and quality) of plant and equipment, or capital, used by each worker is an important determinant of output per hour of labor employment. A key factor in the productivity slowdown of 1973-79 was the relatively slow growth in the capital stock available per worker in the business sector. The capital stock (1982 prices) available per worker rose at a 1 percent rate from 1973 to 1979, then accelerated to a 1.5 percent rate from 1979 to 1985. Such data are not available for 1987, but investment in plant and equipment has declined quite sharply as a share of income since 1985. In 1985, real nonresidential fixed investment equaled 12.6 percent of real GNP, the highest share recorded since World War II; his share declined to 12 percent in 1986 and 11.7 percent in 1987. At the same time, employment growth in the business ^ector accelerated from a 1.4 percent rate from 1979 to 1985 to a 2.1 percent rate from 1985 to 1987. The recent slowing in the growth of the capital stock per worker has been associated with tax reform. Congress ended the investment tax credit effective at the beginning of 1986 and, beginning in 1987, lengthened depreciation schedules so that allowable depreciation expenses were reduced. For both reasons, taxes on income from existing operations and new capital investment were raised; the expected after-tax income from investment was reduced. Some analysts have estimated that a reduction in the maximum corporate tax rate from 46 percent to 34 percent for some firms, effective for tax years after June 1987, will almost offset the effects of the termination of the investment tax credit. Thus, some part of the recent slowing in capital stock growth may be reversed as this provision becomes effective. — John A. Tatom THE FEDERAL RESERVE RANK of ST. ID IIS Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. TOTAL C I V IL I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANfcE THOUSANDS OF PERSONS I H i l l AL MONTH TF RMf NAI _iu—no ii- f lD __fi-na---f- n n u~na _1-cu__r —n jt_ __< U 1—u q i_ _ " « r>—" « -r-n i iu - m n-ni --109*837 7-fti» 1 -ft ft—86 ? .n ?- 2 Q-ftK 1 .4 1 .2 n .i 10-06 1 .4 1*3 0 .9 i 10*035 110*047 1 .6 U Q f l *±-_ 110*457 11-86 1-7 1 .7 1 .5 2 .3 2 .9 12-86 1-ft 1 .8 1 .7 2 .2 2 .5 1-87 2 .1 2 .2 2 .1 2 .7 3*0 3 .9 111*014 2-87 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .9 3 .2 3 .8 111*344 \-ft 7 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 2 .6 2 .8 2 .7 <i-87 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .8 2 .9 3*0 S—87 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 3 .1 3 .4 /»—8 7 2 .4 2 .4 2^5 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 7-87 2 .* 2 .6 2 .6 2 . ft 3 .0 3 .0 ft—87 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 3 .0 110*657 2 .2 3 .1 3 .1 111*455 2 .4 1 .2 2 f9 2 .5 3 .8 3 .7 3 .6 3 .6 4 .8 5 .8 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 3 .1 2 .7 - 0 .4 2 .9 2 .8 3 .2 3 .Û 1 .6 3 .7 3 .2 3 .1 3 .5 3 .4 2 .6 4 .1 2 .9 3a 3 111*806 112*334 112*300 112 *639 113*050 4 .5 112*872 9—87 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2*7 2*5 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 1*4 2*1 1*2 - 1 *9 10-87 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2*7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 1 .9 2*5 2*0 0*9 3*7 11-87 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2*0 2*8 2 .7 2*6 2 .8 2*6 2*1 2*6 2*3 1*6 3 .4 3 .2 12-87 2 .5 2 .5 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .2 2 .6 2 .4 1 .9 3 .1 2 .9 2 .6 2*9 2 .0 2 .7 2 .9 2*0 2*4 2*8 2*7 2 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 4 .1 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6—87 7-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 6-86 7-86 2 .5 2 .7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .8 2 *8 8-86 9-86 10-86 2«e IN IT IA L 8-8 7 9-87 113»210 113*504 113*744 114*129 MONTH PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L R ESE R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS FEBRU A RY 5* 1988__________________________________________ PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 1-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 12-87 99*601 7-86 3*4 8-86 2*7 2*1 9-86 2 *9 2*7 3*3 10-86 2 .7 2 .5 2 .7 99,77 2 100*039 100*209 2 .1 11-86 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 2 .3 2 .5 12-86 2 *5 2*3 2*4 2*1 2 .2 100*415 1*8 100*567 100*919 1-87 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 3 .0 2-87 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 3 .0 5* 5 2*8 3-87 2*7 2*6 2*7 2 *6 2*7 2 .8 3*1 2*5 2*1 4-87 2 .8 2 .7 2*8 2 .7 2 *8 2 .9 3*1 2*7 2*7 3 .2 4*3 101*150 101*329 101*598 101*708 5-87 2 .6 2 .5 2*6 2 .5 2 .6 2*6 2*7 2-i 2*2 2 .3 1 .3 6-87 2*5 2*4 2*5 2 *4 2*4 2*4 2*5 2*2 2*0 1 .9 1*3 1*3 7-87 2 .6 2*5 2 .6 2*5 2*6 2 *6 2*7 2 .* 2*3 2 .4 2*1 2 .5 3 .7 8-87 2 *5 9-87 7-87 I 1-87 101*818 102*126 102*275 2*5 2*5 2 *4 2 *5 2*5 2*6 2*3 2*2 2*3 2 *0 2*2 2*7 1*8 2 .4 2*5 2 *4 2 .4 2 .4 2*5 2 .3 2*2 2*2 2 .0 2 .2 2*4 1*8 1*9 2*9 2 .7 2*7 2 *8 2 .7 3 .0 3*5 3*4 4*2 6*6 10-87 ?• $ 2*7 2 .9 2*7 2*8 2 .e 102*434 102*983 103*246 11—87 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 *8 2*8 2*9 2 .8 2 .8 2*9 2*6 3 .0 3*4 3*3 3*9 4*9 3*1 12-87 2*8 2 *8 2*8_ 2*8 2*9 2 *9 3*0 2*9 2*9 3*0 _ 2 *9 3*2 3*5 3 .4 3*9 4 .5 3*5 3*9 1-88 2 .8 2*7 2 .8 2*7 2*8 2*8 2*9 2 .8 2*® ?*e 2*8 3*0 3*2 3*1 3*4 3*8 2*8 2*7 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 IN IT IA L 103*572P 1*5 103*703P 11-87 12-87 MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUlS FEBRUARY ?t 1999 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE M I L L I ONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEASONALLY M I L L I ONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE PERSONS 130 125 120 1 15 1 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt 1987 1988 U.S.D EPARTM ENT OF LABOR BEGIN N IN G JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIM ATIN G MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 Z . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt INDICATED. JANUARY PR ELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT LO U IS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11 . 1 1 .0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6 .0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1980 ¡981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE. PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LATEST DATA PLOTTED: U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR FORCE JANUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. 3 LO U IS CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X FOR A LL URBAM CONSUMERS* SEASO N ALLY A D JU ST ED * _______________________ C tW W IH O E P ANNUAL R ATES O f CHAWSE_________________________ TERM INAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH________________________________________________________________________ 1982-8W O O MONTH 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 5-87 6-87 1- ?7 2-87 3-87 4-87 8-86 7 -0 6 9 -#6 10-86 11-36 12-86 1 0 9 .4 7-86 0 .0 8-86 1 .1 2 .2 9-86 1*8 2 *8 3 .3 10-86 1 .9 2 .6 2 .8 11-86 2 .2 2 .8 12-86 2 .2 2 .7 1 0 9 .6 3 .0 1 0 9 .9 2 .2 110 .1 2 .8 3 .3 1 1 0 .4 2 .6 2 .8 2 .2 9 .0 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .4 1-87 3 .2 3 .7 4 .0 4 .2 4 .8 5 .6 2-87 3 .3 3 .8 4 .1 4 .2 4 .7 5 .2 6 .7 .4 3-87 3 .5 4 .0 4 .3 4 .4 4 .9 5 .3 6 .3 .9 5 .5 4-87 3 .7 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 5 .0 5 .3 6 .1 .1 5 .5 5 .5 5-87 3 .8 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .9 5 .1 5 .7 .9 5 .1 4 .9 6-87 3 .7 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 5 .3 •6 4 .6 4 .3 3 .8 3 .2 7-87 3 .7 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .7 5 .0 •4 4 .3 4 .1 3 .6 3 .2 3 .2 8-87 3 .8 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .7 5 .1 .5 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 4 .3 9-87 3 .8 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .9 .3 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 4 .3 3 .2 10-87 3 .8 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 .3 4 .3 4 .2 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .3 3 .7 4 .3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 3 .5 3 .7 3 .2 1 1 1 .8 1 12 .3 1 12 .8 1 1 3 .2 4 .3 1 1 3 .5 1 1 3 .8 1 1 4 .3 5 .4 1 1 4 .6 1 1 5 .0 1 1 5 .3 11-87 3 .8 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 .2 4 .2 12-87 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 .0 4 .0 3 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .2 3 .2 2 .6 2 .1 1-88 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 3 .2 3 .2 6-86 7 -8 6 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 16-87 1 1 5 .5 4 .2 1 1 5 .9 11-87 12-87 I M t T f A t W6*fTW ♦DATA R EBA SED TO 1982-84*100 AND R E V IS E D FR O * 1983 P R E P A R E BY ffO C ftA L rte$E*VC BANK OF S T . L O U IS FEBRU A RY 26» 1988_________________________________________ PRODUCER P R IC E IN 0 6 X * F IN IS H E O 6000S - SEASON ALLY A D JU ST ED * _________________________________________________________________CQMPWNP E P ANNUAL RATES Qf CHANTS__________________________________________________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L HQNTH___________________________________________________________________ * I 00 MONTH 6-86 7-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-8 7 5-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 I l “ 07 12-87 102.3 102.7 8-86 - 1 .2 4 .8 9-86 0 .4 4*2 3 .6 10-86 1 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .8 11-86 1 .4 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 1 .2 12-86 It O 2 *6 2 .1 1 .6 0 .0 103.0 103.4 103.5 103.4 - 1 .2 103.9 1-87 i •7 3 .2 2 .8 2 .6 1 .9 2 .3 6 .0 2-87 1 .8 3 .0 2 .7 2 .6 2 .0 2 .3 4 .1 2 .3 3-87 2 .1 3*2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .6 2 .? 4 .3 3 .5 4-87 2 .6 3 .7 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .8 5 .0 4 .7 5 .9 7 .1 5-87 2 .5 3 .5 3 .4 3 .4 3 .2 3 .5 4 .5 4 .1 4 *7 4 .7 2 .3 3*9 3 .5 3 .8 3 .5 1 .7 1*1 6-87 6-87 - 6 .8 2 .4 3*3 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 3*2 104,1 1 04.5 4 .7 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.7 7-87 2 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .0 3 .2 3 .8 3 .5 3 .7 3 .5 2 .3 2 .3 3 .5 8-87 2 .6 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .0 3*2 3 .8 3 .5 3 .7 3 .5 2 .6 2 .7 3 .5 3 .5 9-87 2 .7 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3 .4 3 .9 3 .6 3 .8 3 .7 3 .0 3 .2 3 .8 4 .0 10-87 2 .4 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .8 3 .3 3 .0 3 .0 2 .8 2*1 2 .1 2 .3 1 .9 1 .1 - 2 .2 n-87 2 .2 2 .8 2 .6 ?*6 2 .4 2 .5 2 .9 2 .5 Z±SL it * 1*6 1 .5 1 .6 1 .1 0 .4 - 1 .7 - 1 .1 12-87 1*8 2*3 2 .2 2 .1 1*9 2*0 2 .2 1 .9 1 .« 1 .5 0 *9 0 .7 0*6 0*0 - 0 .8 - 2 .6 - 2 .8 - 4 .4 1-88 2*0 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2*1 2 *4 2 .1 2*1 1*8 1*3 1 .1 1 .1 0 .8 0 .2 —0 .8 - 0 .4 0 .0 4 .6 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 106.0 1 06.4 4 .6 106.2 106.1 1 05 .7 106.1 1 ♦OATA REBASED TO 1982*100 A W I N I T I A L MONTH R EV I S E P FROM 1 V 8 3 ________________________ _______ PREPA REO BY FED ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS FEgftVAftY U t l?f+________________________ 4 RATIO PR I C E S * SCALE RATIO SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED 1982-100 CONSUMER P R I C E S DATA ARE ON A I 9 82 - 8 4 - 100 BASE C M - U DATA B E « I KM INC 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQ U IV A LEN C E MEASURE FOR HOHEOWNERSH IP PERC EN T AG ES ARE ANNWAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LA TEST *D A T A RATIO DATA PLO TTED. R EBASED CO STS. IN D IC A TED . JANUARY TO 1 96 2- I00 AM) R E V IS E D FROM 1983 PR EPA RED BY FED ERAL PRODUCER SCALE 1982-100 R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . PRICES L O U IS RATIO SCALE SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED PERC EN T AG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LA TEST SCALE 1982-100 DATA PLO T TED . * D A T A R EBASED IN D IC A TED . JANUARY TO I9 B 2 - I0 0 AND R E V IS E D FRO * 1983 PREPA RED BY FED ERAL 5 RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRODUCER P H IC E IN D EX * F IN IS H E D CONSUMER FOODS - SEASON ALLY A D JUSTED # ___________________________________________________________ ___ ____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANftE____________ ____________________________________________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________ _______ I N I T I A L MONTH_____________________________________ ______________________________ MONTH 6-06 1-07 2-07 3-07 6-07 7-07 0-07 4-07 5-07 1-06 9-07 10-07 11-07 12-87 M 6 . . 9 - a a 10-06 11—06 12-06 7-06 100 1 07 .6 17*0 109 .4 0-06 1 9,5. .2 2 *0 . 9-66 1 0 .6 7 .5 - 5 *3 10-66. 1 0 .5 8#4 2*2 108.9 109 .8 10*4 109.5 U-8* 7 .6 5*4 0*4 3*4 -3*2 12-06 5 .1 2 *9 -U4 0 *0 —4 . 0 - 6 *4 1-07 2 .9 0 *7 - 3 *0 -2*5 - 6 *4 - 7 *9 - 9 *5 100 .9 1 08 .0 108.2 2-87 2 .0 1*0 -2*2 -1*5 - 4 .3 - 4 *7 - 3 .0 2 .2 3-67 2 *5 0 *0 - 1 *9 - 1 *3 - 3 * 5 — - 3 *5 - 2 *5 1*1 0*0 4—07 3*9 2*5 0*3 1*1 6*1 0*0 16*7 —0 * 4 0 .2 1*9 108 .2 109 .6 1 10 .8 5-07 4 *7 3*6 1*7 2 *6 1*6 2*4 4 .2 0*0 10*0 15*3 1 4 .0 6-67 4 *2 3 .1 1*4 2 *2 1*2 1 *9 3*3 6*1 7*1 9 .6 6 *2 - 1 *1 7-07 3*6 2 *5 0 .9 1*5 0 *6 1*1 2 .2 4 *3 4*7 5*9 2 .6 - 2 .7 - 4 *3 . J?r_07 2 *7 U6 0 .1 0 *6 - 0 *3 0*0 0 .0 2*4 2*4 2*9 - 0 .3 —4 .6 - 6 *3 - 0 .4 9-07 3*0 2 .1 0*7 1*2 0*4_ O .f 1 .6 3*1 3 .2 ’ 3 f7 1*3 -1*6 - I* ® -0*5 7*9 . AO-97 ..... U - * 7 2 .5 1 .6 0*3 0*0 0 *0 0 *3 1*0 2*2 2*2 2*5 0 .4 - 2 *2 - 2 .4 -1*0 1*7 - 4 .3 2*6 1*7 0*5 0 .9 0 *3 0 .5 1 .2 12-07 1 .5 0 .7 - 0 .5 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 - 0 .0 1-M 2*5 1*0 0 .7 1*1 0 *5 0 *0 6-06 7-06 8-86 9 -0 6 . 1982 « 110.7 1 10 .3 109.5 110.2 2*3 2 .3 2 .6 0 *0 -1*3 - 1 .3 -0*5 2*2 -0*5 0 .6 0 .4 0 .5 - 1 .4 - 3 .4 - 3 .0 - 3 .7 - 2 .4 - 5 .7 1*4 2 *3 2*3 2*6 1*1 - 0 *4 - 0 *3 0*4 2*2 0*0 10—06 11-06 12-06 1-07 2-07 3-07 4-07 5-07 6-07 7-07 0-07 9-07 IN IT IA L 1 09 .8 3*3 110*1 100*6 - 6 * 4 - 1 5 *2 2 *6 2*2 23*1 110*5 10-07 11-07 12-07 MONTH ♦DATA AfcBASfcP TQ L 2 « 2 n 0 0 AN© R E V IS E D FROM 1903 PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L R ESE R V E FEBRU A RY 12* 1900 PROOOCER P R IC E IN O EX* F IN IS H E D ______________________ CQWTQUMQEQ BANK O f ST * L O U IS COOOS* EXC LUD ING FOODS - SEASONALLY A O JU ST ED * AFtfflML M T£S Of ¿BA SSE__________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_________________________________________________________________________ 1962 » 100 MONTH 1-07 2-07 3-07 4-07 5-07 6-87 7-07 0-06 9 -06 10-06 11-06 12-06 6-06 7-06 6-07 9-07 10-07 11-07 12-07 100.5 7-06 -15 *3 0-06 -0*5 —i .2 9-06 -3*1 3*6 10-06 -1*0 3 .2 5*5 2 .4 11-06 -0 *9 3 .0 4 *5 2 .4 2*4 12-06 -0*6 2*6 3*6 2 .0 1*0 1-87 1 .0 4 .0 5*1 4 .2 4*6 6*1 11*2 2-07 1 .2 3 .8 4*6 3*6 4*2 4*0 6*7 2*4 3-07 1*0 4 .2 5*0 4 .* 4 .8 5*4 6*9 4*0 4-07 2*0 4 .1 4*0 4 .3 4*6 5 .0 6 .0 4»4 5 .4 3*5 5-07 1*7 3 .6 4*1 3 .6 3*0 4*0 4 .5 3*0 3 .2 1 .2 - 1 .2 6-87 1*7 3 .4 3 .0 3*3 3*4 3*6 4 *0 2*6 2-7 1*2 0*0 1 .2 7-87 2*1 3 .7 4*1 3*7 3 .0 4*0 4*4 3 .3 3*5 2*6 2 .3 4 .1 7*2 8-07 2*4 3 .9 4*4 4 *0 4 .2 4*4 4*0 3*9 4*1 2-5 ¿.5 5 .1 7*2 7*1 9-07 2 .6 4 .0 4*4 4 .1 4 *2 4 .4 4*0 4 *0 4*2 3*7 3*7 5 .0 6*3 5*9 10-07 2 .3 3*6 3*9 3 .6 3*7 3*0 4 .0 3*3 3*4. 2 .0 2 .7 3 .5 4*1 3*1 1.2 - 2 .3 11-07 2*0 3*2 3 .5 3*1 3*2 3*3 3*4 2*7 _2± L_ 2.0... 2*5 2*0 1*7 0*0 - 2 .3 - 2 .3 12-07 1 .9 3 .0 3*3 2 *9 3*0 3*0 3*1 2 .5 2 .5 1 .9 1 .7 2 .2 2*3 1*4 0*0 - 1 *5 -1*1 0*0 1*7 2*7 2 *9 2*6 2 *6 2 *6 2 .7 2*0 ,2*Q 1 .5 1 .3 1*6 1*7 0*0 -0 *5 -1*7 - 1 .5 -1*1 - 2 *3 6-06 7-06 0-06 9-06 10-06 11-06 12-06 1-07 2-07 3—07 4-07 5-07 6-07 7-07 0-07 9-07 10-07 11-07 12-07 1-00 100.4 101*1 0*7 101.3 101.5 101.6 L .2 102.5 102.7 1 03 .3 7 .2 1 03.6 . IN IT IA L 103.5 1 03.6 104.2 104.8 4*7 105.2 105.0 104.0 1 04 .8 1 04 .6 MONTH ♦OATA R6PA5E0 TO 1902*100 ANP f t E V IS E P FRQM | 9 j ? PREPA REO BY FED ERA L R ESE R V E EfeM VAM l i t 6 i m BANK O f ST * L O U IS ______________________________________ INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 197 7-1 00 1980 SEASONALLY 1981 1982 1983 1984 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO O S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SCALE 1 97 7-100 ADJUSTED 1985 1986 1987 1988 INDICATED. JANUARY PR ELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS IN D U S T R IA L PRODUCTION ______________________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANftE________________________________________________________________________ TERMINAI_________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L MONTH_________________________________________________________________________ l ?77 MONTH 6-87 7-07 0-0 7 9-07 10-07 11-07 12-87 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 3—87 4-87 5-07 2-07 6-fl6 7-06 1-07 124.8 7—86 7 .0 8-86 3*9 1 .0 124.9 124.5 9-86 1*3 - 1 .4 -3*8 10-86 2 .9 1 .6 1 .9 8 .0 11-86 3 .1 2 .2 2. ♦6 5 .9 3 .9 12-06 4 *4 3*9 4*6 7 .6 7-4 U *Q 1-87 2 .9 2 .3 2 .5 4 .2 2 .9 2 .4 2-87 3 .6 3 .2 3 .6 5 .1 4 .4 4 .5 1 .4 3-87 3 .6 3 .1 3 .5 4 .7 4 .1 4 .1 1 .9 5*0 2*9 4-87 3 .2 2 .8 3 .0 4 .0 3 .4 3 .3 1 .4 3 .9 1 .4 0 .0 5—87 3 .6 3 .3 3 .5 4 .5 4 .0 4 .0 2 .7 4 .8 3 .5 3 .0 125.3 125.7 126.8 126.2. - 5 .5 127.1 0 .9 127.4 127.4 7 .0 128.2 129.1 6-87 4 .0 3*8 4*0 5*0 4 *6 4 .7 3 .7 5 .6 4*8 5*4 0*3 0 .0 7-87 4 .8 4 .6 5 .0 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .2 7 .1 6 .7 7 .7 1 0 .4 1 1 .0 1 4.9 8-87 4*9 4 .7 5 .0 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .2 6 .9 6 .6 7 .3 9 .2 9 .7 1 0.2 5 .7 - 1 .8 4 .2 4 .5 5 .2 5 .0 4 .9 5 .2 5 .0 4*9 5 .2 12-87 5*0 4*9 1-88 4 .9 6-86 9—87 4 .4 10-87 11-87 » 100 5 .0 5 .1 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .8 5 .7 5 .8 5*2 5*8 5* 7 4*8 5 .0 5*6 7-86 8-86 9-86 5>0 4 .4 10-06 11-06 6 .9 6 .7 6 .0 6 .4 7 .0 0 .2 0 .2 0 .1 5 .9 6 .1 1 4.6 6 .2 6 .7 7 .7 7 .6 7 .4 5 .6 5 .6 9 .5 4 .6 8 .2 5 .1 5 .5 5 .4 6 .7 5 .3 6 .5 12-06 131.0 5 .7 5 .3 5*4 131.2 1 .9 5 .0 5 .5 130.6 132.5 133.0 1 3 3 .6P 6 .4 6*2 6*5 7*4 7 .3 7*1 5*6 5 .6 6 .0 5 .0 6 .1 6 .0 6 .6 6 .3 5 .0 4 .8 6 .6 4 .0 3 .7 1.8 1-07 2-07 3-07 4-07 5—07 6-07 7-87 8-8 7 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 IN IT IA L 1 3 3 .8P MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L R ESE R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS FEBRUARY iT f-iW ______________________ 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TR I L L I ONS MONTHLY OF DOL LARS T OT A L S I N C O ME AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4. 2.6 2.4 . 2.2 2. 2. 0 2 .8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JANUARY PR ELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER VE BANK OF ST. PERSO N AL Çg w rw œ p LO U IS I* C O H E R A T E S .Q F CHANGE B IL L IO N S W DOLLARS RATES' INITIAL HONTH a n M JA L MONTH 6-06 7-86 7 -8 6 8-86 9-8 6 10-66 1 1-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-97 6-87 3 *5 4 0 .3 4*2 0-86 4*3 4 *4 9-86 4 *5 4 *7 3 * 5 5 2 .9 5 *0 3 *5 6 7 .5 3 * 5 7 7 .5 3 .4 10-86 4 .3 4 .3 4 .2 11-86 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 3 .9 4 .4 12-86 4 *9 5 *0 5 .2 5*2 6 .1 7 .9 5 .4 5 .5 6 .2 7 .1 6 .3 3 * 5 9 0 .3 3 *6 1 3 .0 3 * 6 3 1 .9 1-87 5 .1 5 .2 2—87 6* 1 6 .4 6 .8 7 .1 8 .1 9 .3 10*1 1 3 .9 3-87 5*9 6*1 6 .4 6 .6 7 .3 8 .0 8 .0 8 .9 4 .1 4-87 5 .9 6 .1 6*4 6 .5 7 .1 7 .6 7 .6 8 .0 5 .1 6 .2 5-87 5 .6 5 .7 5 .9 6 .0 6« \ 6 .7 6 .5 6 .5 4 .1 4 .2 3 *6 7 1 .2 3 *6 8 3 .4 3 *7 0 1 .9 3 *7 0 8 .5 2 .2 3 * 7 1 5 .3 6-87 5 .3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .6 5 .8 6 .0 5 .7 5 .6 3 .6 3 .5 2 .2 2 .2 7-87 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 6. 1 6 .3 6 .1 6 *0 4 .5 4 .6 4 .1 5 .1 8 .0 6 .2 4 .9 5 .1 4 .8 5 .7 7 .5 8-87 7-87 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 6 .2 6 .4 6 .2 3 *7 3 9 .2 3 * 7 6 0 .6 7 .1 9-87 5 .7 5 .9 6 .0 6 .0 6. 3 6 .5 6 .3 6 .3 5 .3 5 .5 5 .4 6 .2 7 .5 7 .3 7 .5 10-87 6 .9 7 .1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .8 8*1 8 .1 8 .3 7 .6 8 .1 8 .5 9 .8 1 1 .7 1 3 .0 1 6.1 2 5 .4 6 .5 6 .7 6 .9 6 .9 6*9 6 .2 6 .4 6 .4 7 .2 8 .2 8 .2 8 .6 9 .2 3 *7 8 3 .2 3 *8 5 5 .2 —4 . 8 3 * 8 3 9 .3 11-87 6 .1 6 .3 6 .4 12-87 6. 3 6 .4 6 .5 6 .6 6 .9 7 .1 7 .0 7 .1 6 .4 6 .7 6 .7 7 .4 8 .3 8 .4 8 .7 9 .1 1 .8 8 .8 6 .2 6 .3 6« b 6 .5 6 .7 6 .8 6 .8 6 .8 6 .2 6 .4 6 .4 7 .0 7 .7 7 .6 7 .7 7 .8 2 .5 6 .3 6-66 7-8 6 8-86 9-86 10—86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 §-87 1-88 9-8 7 10-87 3 *8 6 6 .4 3 .9 3 * 8 7 8 .6P 11-87 12—87 1 P- PRELIMINARY PR EP A R ED B Y FÉD ÉRA L K fc StK V t b * * * Uh 'SI . FEBRU A RY 26» 1988_______________ ________ 8 L U U IX RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE B I L L I ONS OF 1980 RATIO DOLLARS 1981 SEASONALLY 1982 1983 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE« PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER, U .S . 1987 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D ICATED . JANUARY ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS RETAIL SALES CQMfQUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHAH 6 E TEttHINAt IN IT IA L 6-Û6__ 7-aa 7-86 ñ - ñ h __ t o - a ¿ 11 — i ? -a&_________ i - ñ i M ILH O U S OF HO KT M 7-87___a-fl7__ 4-fl7 OOLLARS S - a i__ 6-fl7 I- B 7 __ ft-fll__ 2r.B7 11-87 U ~ 9 7 -9*1 121»735 fl-t a ____ LL»_2___L L .3 _2=*6__ 3?t7 10-9» 31t4 !Q¿t4 122 » 22 2 - 6 t7 121»7 31 4 *3 3 *2 _14*0 1 5 .0 1-97 - 2 .2 - 4 *0 - 7 .1 - 2 3 .5 2-97 5 .9 5 .5 4 .2 - 8 .7 5 .1 8 .6 - 1 5 .0 8 5 .4 3-97 5*6 5 .2 4 .1 - 6 .9 4 .7 7 .2 -9*3 3 8 .2 3*1 _ 4-87 5 .4 5 .0 4 .0 - 5 .4 4 .5 6 .5 - 6 .3 2 5 .6 3 .3 3 .6 5-87 4 .8 4 .4 3 .4 - 4 .9 3 .7 5 .2 - 5 .2 1 8 .3 1*9 1 .3 - 0 .9 o • o 11-86 12-06 - 2 9 .7 —4 *7 15*4 -4*3 3 0 *0 127*687 77*4 118 »049 - 1 3 *0 - 1 6 .8 - 6 1 .0 124*280 124.593 124»960 124»867 126»307 6-97 5 *6 5*3 4 *5 - 2 .9 5 .1 6#5 - 2 .1 1 7 .6 5*0 5 *6 $ *$ 1 4 .8 7-87 5 .7 5 .5 4 .8 - 1 .9 5 .3 6 .6 - 0 .8 1 5 .9 5 .5 6* 1 6 .9 1 1 .0 7 .4 8-87 6 .6 6 .5 5 .9 —0 . 1 6 .6 8 .0 1 .5 1 6 .3 7 ,6 8 .6 9 .8 1 3 .7 1 3.1 9-87 4 .8 4 .5 3 .8 - 1 .8 4 .1 5 .0 - 0 .9 1 1 .3 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 4 .7 1 .5 10-87 3 .8 3 .4 2 .7 - 2 .5 2 *8 3 .5 - 1 .9 8 .7 1 .6 1 .4 1 .1 1 .5 - 1 .6 - 4 . 4 - 1 4 .4 - 1 0 .4 - 8 .8 - 3 .7 3 .5 127*061 128*931 1 9 .2 - 1 .3 126*790 - 1 8 .2 125*631 125*990 11-87 3 .7 3 .4 2 .8 - 2 .1 2 .8 3 .5 - 1 .4 8 .1 1 .8 1 .7 1 .4 1 .8 - 0 .6 - 2 .5 12-97 4 *3 4 .1 3 .5 - 1 .0 3 .7 4 .3 - 0 .2 8 .7 3 .1 3*1 3 .0 3 .6 1 .8 0 .6 - 3 .4 2 .1 9 .1 1 4 .9 1-88 4 .4 4 .2 3 .7 - 0 .6 3 .8 4 .5 0 .3 8 .5 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .9 2 .4 1 .6 - 1 .6 3 .1 8 .0 1 0 .4 6 .0 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 IN IT IA L 127 *459P I28 *O 7 0E HONTH P- P R E L IM IN A R Y E - E S T IH A T E O PREPA RED BY FEO ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS fsfrnmx Hr ,\m _______________________ 9 HOU&LY C O M P EN SA IIO N* B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANCE______ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTE*_______________________________________ _______________________________ W 1U.19Q . QUARTER 1-03 2—03 2 .5 3-83 2 .0 2-fl^ 3-03 4-03 1-04 4-04 1-05 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-86 2-06 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 1 60 .8 161.4 1 63 .6 3 .2 3 .5 5 .6 1-04 3*8 4 .2 5*5 2-04 3 .5 3 .8 4 .1 2 *7 3 *5 165.8 5 ,5 3-04 3 .7 3 .9 4*5 4*2 4-04 3 ,7 3*9 4*4 4 .1 3 .6 1-85 3 .9 4*1 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 *2_ 2-05 4 .0 4 *2 4 *6 _ 4*4 3-85 4 .2 4 .4 4 .7 4 .6 4 .5 4-85 4 .3 4 .5 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 1-06 4 .2 4 .3 4 *6 4 .5 4 *4 2-86 4*1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 3-96 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4-06 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 3 ,8 3-04 1 .5 4-03 1-07 2 -04 3 .9 4 .1 1 66 .9 1 68 .7 4*4 1 7 0 .3 3*8 1 72 .4 4 .4 4 *6 4 .7 5* I 5*2 4 .9 5 .3 5 .4 1 74 .6 1 77 .0 5 .6 179 .3 5 .0 5 .3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .3 4*7 4 .9 4*8 4*7 4*_2_ 3*2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 3 .9 3 .3 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 3 .7 3 .2 3 ,2 3 ,1 4 .2 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .2 4 .0 3 .7 3 .3 3 ,3 3 .3 3 .5 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 3 ,8 3 .6 3 .3 2 .9 2 ,8 2 ,6 2 .4 4 *6 180.7 182 .2 3 ,4 183 .6 185.2 1 .3 185.0 1 87 .3 2-87 3 ,8 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 3 ,8 3 .6 3 .3 3 .0 2 ,9 2 ,0 2 .7 2 .3 3 .3 3-07 3*8 3*9 4 .0 3*9 3 *9 3 .9 3*9 3 .8 3*6 3 .4 3 .1 3 ,1 3 ,0 3 .0 2 .0 3 .6 3 .9 4-87 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 3 .9 3 .0 3 .8 3 .0 3 .7 3 .5 3 .3 3 .1 3 ,1 3 ,0 3 .0 2 .9 3 .4 3 .4 3 .0 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 3-04 4-04 1-85 2-85 3-05 4-85 1-86 2-06 3—06 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 2-04 IN IT IA L 189.1 1 9 0 .5P QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA REO B 7 FED ERA L R ESERV E BASK OF S T . L Ö U IS __________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________ OUTPUT P E R UOUR OF ALL PER SO N S* B U S IN E S S SECTOR ____________________________________________________ _________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES QF CHANfcE_____________________________________________________________________ TER M IN A L________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER______________________________________________________________________ 1977*100 QUARTER 1-04 2-05 3-0 5 4-05 1-06 2-86 3-86 4-06 1-87 2-07 3-87 l- fli 2-03 3-03 4-03 4-04 1-05 2-04 3-04 103 .4 2-03 6 *0 3-83 2 .2 4-03 2*4 1-84 3 .1 2 .2 4 .1 5 .5 2-84 2 .9 2 .1 3 .4 3 .7 1 .9 3-94 2*3 1*6 2*4 2*3 0 *9 -0*4 4-84 2 .2 1 .6 2 .2 2*1 i.o 0 .6 1*5 1-85 2*2 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 1 .3 1 .1 1*9 2 .3 2-85 2*3 1 *9 2*3 2*2 1*6 1*5 2*2 2*5 2*7 103.0 - 1 *5 103.7 2*7 105.1 105 .6 105 .5 105 .9 1 06 .5 107.2 1 08 .2 3-95 2 .4 2 .0 2 .5 2 .5 2 .0 2 .0 2 .6 2 .9 3 .2 3 .0 4-85 2 .1 1 .7 2 .1 2 .0 1 .5 1 .4 1 .0 1 .9 1 .9 1 .3 - I.1 1-86 2 *4 2*1 2 *5 2 *4 2 .1 2*1 2*5 2 .7 2 *9 2 *9 2 *4 2-86 2 .3 2*0 2 .3 2 .3 1*9 1 .9 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 1 .9 3 .4 0 .7 3-86 2 .1 1 .8 2 .1 2 .0 1 .7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 1 .3 2 .1 0 .2 —0 . 4 4—06 2 .0 1 .7 1 .9 1 .9 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 1 .7 1*7 1 .5 1 .0 1 .6 0 .1 -0. 2 0 .0 107 .9 109 .5 6 *1 109 .7 1 09 .6 109 .6 1-07 1 .9 1*6 1 .0 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 1 .6 1 .6 1 .5 1 .3 0 .9 1 .3 0 .2 0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 2-07 1 .0 1*6 1 .0 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 1 .6 1 .6 1 .5 1 .3 1 .0 1 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0. 6 0 .9 1 .5 3-97 2*0 1*7 2*0 1 .9 1 *1 1*6 1*9 1*9 1*9 It? 1*4 1 .9 1*1 1 .2 1 .6 2 .1 2 .9 4 .4 111 .3 1 .0 1 .6 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .6 1*6 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 1 .5 0 .0 0 .0 1 .1 1 .4 1 .7 1 .8 1 1 1 .IP 1-83 2-03 3-93 4-93 1-04 3—94 4-94 1-95 2-05 3-05 4-0 5 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-86 1-87 2-87 2-04 110.1 , 4-97 109 .7 *- 9 1 t t u f IAL~ QUAfetEft P - PRELIMINARY PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L R E S E R V É BANK O f S T . L Ú U ÍS ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- FEftMlMf 1rt 1W _____ ____ ___________ 10 1 PR OD UCTIVIT Y, RAT I 0 COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RAT I 0 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: PERC ENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO D S LA TEST DATA PLO T TED . SCALE 1977-100 U .S . d epartm en t of labo r R ESER V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS IN D ICA TED . 4TH QUARTER PR E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEOERAL U N IT LA BO * CO STS* B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES O f CHANCE ' TERM INAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 1-83 2-83 - 3 *3 3-93 - 0 *1 2-83 3-83 4-93 1-84 2-94 3-94 4-84 1-85 19 7 7“ 100 QUARTER 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-97 2-9 7 3-87 155 .5 3*1 156.7 157 .7 4-83 0 *0 ¿*8 1-84 0 .6 2 .0 2*6 1 .4 0 .3 2-84 0 *6 1*6 l.l 0 .4 0 .5 3-84 i* 3 2*3 2*0 i* 9 2 *7 4*9 157 .8 1 58 .0 159.9 160 .8 4-94 1 .4 2*3 2 .1 2 .0 2 .5 3*6 2 .3 1-85 U6 2 .3 __ 2*2 2 .1 2 .6 3 .3 2 .5 2 .8 2-85 1*7 2*3 2*2 2*1 2 *5 3*0 ¿*4 2*5 2*2 3-85 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .4 2 .8 2 .3 2 .3 2. 1 2*0 4-85 2 .1 2 .7 2 .6 2 *6 3 .0 3 .4 3 .1 3 .3 3*5 4* 1 6*3 1-86 1*7 2*2 2*1 2 *0 2 *3 2 *5 2*1 2*1 1*9 1*8 1*7 - 2 *6 2 .1 0*1 161.9 162 .0 1 63 .6 166.1 165 .0 166 .2 2*9 2-86 1*8 2 .2 2 .2 2 .1 2 .3 2 .6 2 .2 2 .2 2*1 2*1 3—86 1*9 2 .3 2 .2 2*2 2 .4 2 .6 2*3 2 .4 2*3 2*3 2*4 1*1 3*1 3 .2 4—86 2*0 2 .4 2 .4 2 *3 2* 5 2 .7 2*5 2*5 2*5 2 .5 2*6 1*7 3 .2 3 .4 3 .6 1-87 2 *0 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 1 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .3 2-87 1*9 2 .3 2 .2 3-97 1*8 2*1 2*0 4-97 1 .9 2 .2 2 .1 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 2*2 2 .4 2 .2 1 .4 1 .9 1 .7 1 .4 0 .6 0 .5 - 0 *9 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 1*6 1*4 3*8 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 1 .6 1*9 1*9 1 .3 2*1 2 .1 1 .6 3-85 4-85 1-86 2 .5 2© 3 2 .3 2*0 2*1 2*2 2 *0 2 *0 1*9 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 2 .2 2 .2 2*1 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 2 .5 k IN IT IA L 169.4 1 .0 1 .9 2 .3 2*2 2 .4 2 .2 167 .5 169 .0 170.2 1 69 .8 1 7 1 .4 P QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L Ö L M V A R V 4 t 1989 11 RESERV E BANK OF S i * L O t 1S CROSS NATIONAL PROOOCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS _______________________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE________________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S Of T ER MINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-8S 1-85 4-85 1-86 2-85 4-84 2-86 3-86 1-83 4-96 1-83 2-83 4-83 1-84 2-ê 4 1-B4 1-87 2-87 3-87 2-83 1 3 ,0 3-83 11*2 9 *4 4—83 — 1 1 .6 1 0*9 12*4 1-84 1 2.5 1 2 .4 1 3 .9 3 * 3 6 7 .4 3 * 4 4 3 .9 3 * 5 4 5 .8 3 * 6 7 4 .9 1 5 .4 2-84 11 #8 11*5 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 8 *9 3-84 10*8 10*3 10*6 1 0 .0 7 *4 5*9 3 * 7 5 4 .2 4-84 9*9 9 .4 9 .4 8 .6 6 .5 5*3 4*7 3 *8 0 7 .9 3 * 8 5 1 .9 3 *9 2 1 .1 1-85 9 *6 9*1 9 .0 8 *4 6 *7 6 *0 6*0 7*4 2-65 9*1 8 *6 8*5 7 *9 6 *5 5*8 5*8 6*4 5*5 3-85 8 *9 8*5 8 .3 7 .8 6 *6 6*1 6*1 6*6 6*3 7*1 7 .6 6*5 6*1 6*2 6*6 6*3 6*7 6 *3 4-05 8 *7 8 .2 8 .1 3 * 9 7 3 .6 4 * 0 4 2 .0 * * 104 .4 4 f l7 4 * 4 1-86 8 .5 8*1 8 .0 7 .5 6 *6 6 *3 6*5 6 .8 6*7 7*0 2-86 8* L 7 *7 7 .6 7 .1 6 *2 5*9 5*9 6*1 5*9 6 *0 5*6 5*3 3 .6 3-86 7 .9 7 .5 7 .4 7 .0 6*1 5*8 5*8 6*0 5*9 5*8 5*5 5*3 4*4 4 *2 1 1 *6 5 .3 4 *2 65 *9 4 * 2 8 0 .1 4-86 7 .5 7 .1 7 .0 6 .5 5*8 5*5 5*4 5*5 5*2 4 *8 4 .5 3 .6 3*7 2*1 1-87 7 .6 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 6 *0 5*7 5*7 5*9 5*7 5*7 5*5 5 .3 4 .9 5*3 5*3 8*6 2-87 7 .5 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 *0 5*8 5*8 5*9 5*7 5*8 5*6 5 .5 5 .2 5*5 5*6 7*5 6*3 7*4 6*8 7*3 * * 3 7 7 .7 4*4 4 5 *1 4 * 5 2 4 .0 3-87 7 .5 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 6*1 5*9 5*9 6*0 5 .9 5 .9 5*9 5*7 5*5 5*9 6*1 4-87 7 .5 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 6*2 6*0 6*0 6*1 6*0 6* 1 6 *0 5*9 5 .8 6*1 6*3 7*4 7*0 7*3 7*3 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-94 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-8 5 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 IN IT IA L 4 * 6 0 4 .0 QUARTER PREPA REO BY FEO ERA L R E S E R V E BANK O f S I • L O U IS FEBRU A RY 25* 1988_________________________________________ CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES QF CHANCE T ER M IN A L QUARTER IN IT IA L CD r\> 1 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-8 1 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-96 1-97 2-97 3-87 3 * 2 5 0 .3 9 *3 3 *3 0 6 .4 3-83 7 *7 6 *0 4-83 7 *5 6 *7 7*3 3 *3 6 5 .1 1-84 8 *3 8 *0 9 *0 3 *4 5 1 .7 2-84 7 *7 7 *4 7*8 8*1 5 *5 3-94 6 .9 6 .4 6*5 6 *2 4 *0 2 *6 4-84 6 .1 5 *6 5*5 5*1 3 *2 2 .1 1 0*7 3 * 4 9 8 .0 3 * 5 2 0 .6 1 .7 3 *5 3 5 .2 3 * 5 6 8 .7 1-85 5 *8 5 *3 5*2 4 *8 3 *4 2 .7 2 .9 3 .8 2-85 ?t4 4 *9 4 *9 4 *4 3 *1 2*5 2*5 3*0 2*1 3-85 5*3 4 *8 4 *7 4 *3 3 *3 2*9 2 .9 3 .3 3*1 4 *1 4-85 5*1 4 *7 4 *5 4 *2 3*3 2*9 3 .0 3*3 3* I 3 *6 3*1 3 *5 8 7 .1 3 *6 2 3 .0 3 * 6 5 0 .9 1-86 ?tl 4*7 4 *6 4 *3 3 *5 3*2 3 .3 3*7 3*6 4 *2 4*2 5*4 2-86 4 t7 4 *4 4*2 3 *9 3 *2 2*9 3 .0 3*2 3*0 3 *3 3*0 3*0 3 *6 9 8 .8 0*6 3 *7 0 4 .7 3 * 7 1 8 .0 3-86 4 *5 4*1 4 *0 3 *7 3 *0 2*7 2 .9 2 .9 2*8 2 *9 2 *6 2 *5 1 .0 1*4 4 -86 4 t? 4 *0 3*9 3 *5 2 *9 2*6 2*6 2*7 2*6 i t7 2 .4 2*2 1*2 1 .5 1 .5 1-87 4*3 4 *0 3*9 3 *6 3 .0 2*9 2*9 2 .9 2*9 2*9 2*7 2 .6 2 .0 2 .4 2 .9 4*4 2-87 4*2 3 *9 3*7 3 *5 3 *0 2*9 2 .9 2 .9 2*9 2 *9 2*7 2 .6 2*1 2 .4 2*8 3 .4 3 *7 3 1 .5 3 * 7 7 2 .2 2 .5 3 * 7 9 5 .3 3 * 8 3 5 .9 3-97 4 .2 3*9 3*0 3 *6 3*1 2 *9 2*9 3 .0 2*9 _ 3*0 2*9 2 *9 2*5 2*8 3*2 3 .7 3 .4 4 .3 4-9? 4*2 3 *9 3*9 3 *6 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 3*1 3*1 3*2 3*1 3*1 2*7 3 .1 3*4 3 .9 3 *8 4*4 4 .5 1-83 2-83 3-93 4-8 3 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-96 4-96 1-87 2-87 *- 9 1 IN IT IA L 3 *8 7 7 .9 QUARTER PREPA REO BY ¿É Ù É R A L k i & M Ë èAHk OF S T . T O U i r F E M U A R V 25* 1989________________________________________ _ 12 GROSS RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF NATIONAL QUARTERLY DOLLARS TOTALS PRODUCT AT ANNUAL SEASONALLY RATES ADJUSTED TRILLIONS RATIO SCALE OF D O L L A R S 5. 0 4. 8 4. 6 4. 4 4. 2 4. 0 3. 8 3. 6 3. 4 3. 2 4. 4 4. 2 4. 0 3. 8 3. 6 3. 4 3. 2 3. 0 2. 8 2. 6 1980 98 982 1983 984 1985 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 1986 U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF ST. 13 LO U IS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 1980 *A S USED SCALE 1982-100 1981 1982 IN NATIONAL 1983 1984 1985 INCOME ACCOUNTS PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 1986 SOURCEt U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FO* M O S S NATIONAL PftOOUCT ________________________________________________________ CONPQUNPgP ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_________________________________ ______________________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I TI AL QUARTER_________________________________________________________________1*92 « 100 QUARTER 1-03 2-03 3-03 2 -0 3 3-03 4-03 1-04 2-04 1-04 4-04 1-05 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-06 1-07 2-97 3-07 103*3 3» 2 104*2 3*3 3 .5 3 *0 4 *1 4 .7 1-04 3 .9 4 .2 4 .5 4 *2 2 -04 3 .7 3 .9 4*0 3 *6 105*4 106*5 107*3 3 *0 100*2 3-04 3*7 3 *0 3 *0 3 *6 5 *2 3*4 4 -84 3 .6 3 .6 3*7 3*4 3*1 3*2 3*0 1-05 3 .5 3 .6 3*6 3 *4 3*2 3*2 3*2 2-05 3*5 3 *6 3*9 3 *4 3 *2 3*3 3*2 3*3 3 .3 3-85 3 .5 3 .5 3*5 3*3 3*2 3*2 3*1 3*2 3 .1 2 .9 3 *3 3*1 3*1 3*1 3*1 3 .0 2 .9 4-05 3 .4 3 .4 3*4 109*0 109*9 3*3 110*0 111*6 112*4 2 .9 112*9 1-06 3 .3 3 *3 3*3 3*1 3 *0 2*9 2*9 2*9 2 *7 2*5 2*3 1*0 2-06 3 .2 3 .2 3*2 3*1 3 *0 2*9 2*9 2*9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2*3 2*9 3-06 3 .3 3 *3 3*3 3*1 3 *0 3*0 3*0 3*0 2 .9 2*0 2*0 2*7 3*2 3 *6 4-0 6 3 .1 3*1 3*1 2 *9 2 *6 2 .0 2 .7 2*7 2 *6 2 .5 2 .4 2*2 2*4 2*1 0*7 1-07 3 .2 3*2 3*1 3 *0 2 *9 2*9 2*9 2*0 2 .0 2 *7 2 *7 2*6 2*0 2*8 2*5 4*2 2-07 3 .2 3 *2 3*2 3*1 3*0 3*0 2*9 2 .9 1 .9 2 .0 2 *0 2*0 3*0 3*0 2*0 3*9 3*5 2*0 3 *5 3 *1 2*6 113*7 114*7 114*9 116*1 117*1 117*9 3-07 3 .2 3 .2 3*1 3 .0 2 *9 2 .9 2*9 2*9 2*9 2*0 2*0 2 .0 2*9 2 *9 4-07 3 .1 3*1 3*1 3 *0 2 *9 2*9 2*9 2 .9 2 .0 2 .0 2 .8 2*0 2*9 2*9 2*8 3*3 3*0 2*8 2 *7 1-03 2-03 3-03 4-03 1-04 2-04 3-04 4-04 1-0 5 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-86 4-06 1-87 2-87 3-07 IN IT IA L 118*7 QUARTER P REPA REO BY FEO ERA L R E S E R V E BAN* ÒF S T . ffiffiRill** .S»t 14 L O U IS _______________________ PERSONAL COMSUMPTION E X P IN O IT U ftE S IN CUÄRfNT OOLLARS ______________ COMFOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES O f CHAJtCE______________ T ERM IN A L 1M ITIAL QUAftTEfl 1 -8 ? ¿ - S i -- 3^63 4-03 1-64 2-84 3-04 4-84 1-85 2-83 3-03 4-85 1-66 ¿- 8 6 3-66 B IL L IO N S Of OOLLARS ANNUAL R ATES 4-86___L z l I -- ________ 3-87.. 2 * 2 1 3 .0 ¿ - S3____ U * P 2 * 2 6 2 .8 u » -V -L-.31____ _________ 9 *5 l- » 4 9 .7 2 * 3 6 1 .1 10.0 9 .2 8 .9 9 .8 2 * 4 1 7 .0 ____ £*2____ 9*3 7*8 7 .7 2 * 4 5 0 .3 8.0 8.0 8 .3 9 .4 2 * 5 4 9 .9 2 * 6 6 5 .4 2 » 6 0 2 .0 3-05 9 .0 8 .6 0 .5 8 .4 8 .4 0 .1 0*8 9 .3 9 .3 10.1 4-85 8 .7 8 .3 0 .2 8 .0 8 .0 7 .7 8 .1 8 .3 7 .9 7 .7 5 .3 1-86 0 .4 8 *0 7 .9 7 .7 7 .7 7*4 7 .7 7*8 7*4 7*0 5 .5 2 *7 0 0 .1 5*7 2 * 7 3 7 .9 2 * 7 6 5 .8 2—06 0*1 7 .7 7 .6 7 .4 7 .3 7 .0 7 .2 7 .2 6 .7 6 .3 5 .1 4 .9 3-06 0*3 7 .9 7 .0 7 .7 7 .6 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 7 .4 7*2 6 *4 6*0 7 .4 1 0 .7 4-06 7 .9 7 .6 7 .5 7 .3 7 .2 6 .9 7*1 7*1 6*7 6*5 5 .0 5 .9 5*9 6. 0 3. 1 1-07 7 .0 7 .4 7 .3 7 .1 7 .0 6 .8 4 .9 6 .8 6 .5 6 .3 5 .6 5 .7 5 .7 6 .2 4 .0 5 .0 2 -87 7 .7 7 .4 7 .3 7 .1 7 .0 6 .8 6 *9 6 .9 6 .6 6 .4 5 .0 3-87 7 .0 7 .5 7 .4 7 .3 7 *2 7*0 7*1 7 .1 6 .9 6*7 6 .0 6 .6 6 *6 6 .6 6 *3 6 .1 1-84 2-84 3 -*4 4 -84 1-05 2-85 4-87 7*4 7 .1 7 .0 6 .9 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 IN IT IA L 4 .1 2 *0 3 7 .1 2 *8 50 » 6 2 * 0 9 3 .0 2 * 9 4 3 .7 5 .9 6 .0 6 .4 5 .0 6 .0 7 .1 6 *4 6 *6 7 .0 6 *1 7*2 0 .3 9 .5 5*7 5 .7 5 .7 6 .0 5 .1 5 .6 5 .0 5 .2 l.i 3-85 4-85 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-06 1-07 2-07 3-07 3 * 0 1 1 .3 3 *0 1 9 .2 QUARTER PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R É S E R V É BANK OF S T * L Ö U IS flMVAftY « t . IÎM --------------------------------------PERSO NAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D IT U R ES IN 1982 OOLLARS ________________________________________________________________ CQMflUMOEfl AittUAL HATES Of CHANCE________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S Of fE R ftlW A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-03 2-83 3-83 4-03 1-84 2-84 1-05 3—#4 4-04 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-06 1-07 2-07 3-87 2 * 1 3 5 .1 2-03 0 .0 3-03 6 .7 4-83 6 *3 5 .4 5 .5 1-04 5 .6 4 .0 4#6 3 .7 2-04 5 .8 5 .2 5 .2 5*1 2 * 1 6 3 .0 5 .3 2 * 1 9 1 .9 2 * 2 1 2 .1 2 * 2 4 6 .7 6 .4 2 * 2 5 7 .3 3-04 5 *1 4 *6 4*4 4 *0 4*1 1 .9 4-04 5 .0 4 .5 4 .3 4*1 4 .2 3 .1 4 .3 1-85 5 .1 4 .7 4 .6 4*4 4* 6 4 .0 5 .1 5 .9 2 * 2 8 1 .1 2 * 3 1 4 .1 2-85 5 .0 4 *6 4*5 4*4 4 .5 4 .0 4 .7 5 .0 4 .0 3-05 5 .2 4 .9 4 .0 4 .7 4 .9 4 .6 5 .3 5 .6 5 .4 6 .9 4-85 % ♦Ö 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 .3 4 .0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .0 4 .0 1 .2 4*5 4 .4 4 *3 4 .4 4 .1 **5 4 .5 4*1 4*2 2*0 4*5 _ Ir 9 6 2 * 3 3 7 .0 2 *3 7 6 .1 2 * 3 8 3 .2 2 * 4 0 9 .7 £-06 4 .7 4 .5 4*4 4 *3 4 .3 4 .1 4*4 4*4 4*1 4 .2 3 .3 4 .3 4 .1 3-06 4 .9 4*7 4 *6 4 *6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .0 4*0 4*7 4*0 4 .3 5 .3 5 .7 7 .3 4-06 4 .6 4*4 4*1 3 .9 3 .8 0 .5 4 .3 4*2 4 .3 4 .0 4*3 4 .3 4 .0 4*1 3 .5 2 * 4 3 4 .3 2 * 4 7 7 .5 2 * 4 0 0 .5 1-07 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 3*8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .0 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 2 .0 3 .1 2 .7 2 .3 - O .i - 0 .7 2-07 4 .1 3 .9 3 .0 3 .7 3 .7 3 .3 3 .# 3 .5 3*3 3*2 2 .7 2*9 2 .6 2 .2 0 .5 0 .6 3-87 4 *2 4 *0 3 *9 3 .0 3 .4 3*0 3 .3 4—8.7 3 .0 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 1-03 2-03 3-03 4—83 3*0 1-84 3*6 2-04 3«7 3*7 3*3 3 *2 3 .1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .3 2 .4 3-04 4-04 1-05 2-05 3—03 4-05 3*0 1-86 2 * 4 7 5 .9 1 .9 2 * 4 0 7 .5 2*0 1*7 2 .2 3*7 5 .4 2 * 5 2 0 .7 1 .0 0 .0 0 .0 1 .3 1 .1 - 3 .1 2-06 3-06 4-06 1-07 2-87 3-07 2 * 5 0 0 .9 IN IT IA L Q U A RT« PREPA A EO BY fE O E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O f S T . ~ £ W Ï T fMfttfâHT i u i r a _____________________ 15 M O S S P R IV A T E DOMESTIC INVESTM ENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS CQMPOUüAPft AM*«LAI R A T ES OF CHANCE TERM INA! QUARTER fM T T IA L 1-8 3 2-83 2-83 3-83 4 -8 3 1-R4 2-ft4 3-84 4-84 1-85 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 3-85 2-85 4-A3___1-06 3-06 4-06 1-87 2-07 3-87 481*3 5 9 .5 519*7 3-83 47*2 3 5 *9 4-83 _49#8 4 5 *1 54*9 1-84 54*8 5 3 *3 62*8 7 1 .0 2-84 4 2 .0 3 8 *0 38*7 3 1 *2 3 0*3 29*0 2 1*3 2 *2 3*7 4-84 28*2 2 3 .7 21*3 14*1 - 0 .2 - 0 *7 - 5 *0 661*6 1-85 2 2 .1 1 7 .5 14*7 8 *0 -3*7 - 5 *1 -9 *2 - 1 3 *3 638*6 2-85 -20*2 1 6 .1 13*5 7 .7 - 1 *8 - 2 .4 - 4 .3 - 4 *0 3-85 16*6 1 2 .6 10*0 4 .7 - 3 *5 - 4 *3 -6 *2 -6*6 4-85 16*4 12*8 1 0 .5 5 .9 - I.I - 1 *3 -2 *3 - 1 .7 2*6 0*7 14*9 1-86 1 6 .9 13*6 11*6 7 *6 1*5 1*6 1*3 2*6 7*0 7*3 18*2 21*6 2-86 15*3 12*2 1 0 .2 6 .5 1*1 1*1 0*8 1*8 5*1 4 *8 1 0 .9 9*0 - 2 *3 6 7 9 .4 3-86 1 3 .2 1 0 .2 8*3 4 .9 - 0 *1 - 0 *2 - 0 *7 —0 . 1 2 .3 1*5 5 .1 2*1 - 6 *5 - 1 0 *5 660*8 4-86 12 *2 9 .5 7 .6 4 .4 -0*2 - 0 *2 - 0 *7 - 0 .1 1*9 1*2 4 .0 1*4 - 4 *5 -5*6 - 0 *4 1-87 1 3 .1 1 0 .5 8 .9 6 .0 1*8 1*9 1*7 2 .5 4*7 4*5 7 .4 6*0 2*4 4*0 12*2 26*3 2-87 1 2 .4 9 .9 8 .4 5 .6 1*8 1*9 1*7 2 .4 4*3 4*1 6 .6 5*2 2*2 3*4 8 .5 13*3 1*6 5*4 1*9 2 *0 1*0 2*5 4*2 3*9 6*1 4 *9 2*3 3*3 7*1 9 .6 2*2 2*8 8 .6 7*8 6*0 7*5 11*5 1 4 .6 11*0 16*0 3 1*0 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 3-84 579*8 663*0 0 .7 6 6 4 .2 670*3 6*3 648*4 -3*1 - 1 1 *7 3-87 11*8 9 *5 8*0 4-87 1 2 .7 1 0*6 9*2 6 .9 3 *6 3*8 3*8 4 *6 6*4 6 .4 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-8 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 IN IT IA L 626*6 650*6 663*4 660*2 699*9 702*6 707*4 756*6 QUARTER PREPA RED BY FEO ERA L R ESE R V E BANK OF ST * L O U IS FEBRU A RY 2 5 1 1988________________________________________ GROSS P R IV A T E DOMESTIC IN VESTM ENT IN 1982 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES Of CHAWfcf____________ TFRM IM AI QUARTER IN IT IA L l- fil 2-83 6 8-9 2-fl 3 4 - f ll 1-84 2-84 3*A4 4-84 1-85 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-8 5 3-8 5 4-8 5 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 486*9 524*6 3-83 5 1 *0 3 5 *0 4—83 4 9 .4 4 0 *5 4 6*3 1-84 53*4 4 8 *6 5 5*9 2-84 4 1*4 3 5*2 35*3 3 0 *1 2 *0 3-84 34*2 2 0 *2 2 6*6 2 0*6 2 *8 3*6 4-84 2 7*8 2 1 *9 19*5 1 3 *6 0*1 - 0 .8 577*2 655*2 6 6 .0 658*4 664*2 - 5 .0 655*7 632*1 1-85 21*7 16*1 13*2 7 *5 -3*5 - 5 .3 - 9 .4 - 1 3 .6 2-85 20*2 15*2 12*6 7 *8 -1 *2 - 1 .9 - 3 *7 - 3 .0 3-85 16*3 11*6 9 *0 4 *5 - 3 .3 - 4 .3 - 6 .2 - 6 *6 4—85 16*1 11*8 9 .5 5 .6 —1 .0 - 1 .5 - 2 *5 - 1 *9 1-86 16*4 1 2*6 10*6 7 *2 i* 5 1*4 1*0 2 -86 14*6 11*0 9 .0 5 *9 0 *7 0*5 0*1 645*7 8*9 6 23*1 - 2 *8 - 1 3 *2 6 43*3 2*4 -0*7 13*5 2*3 6*7 6 *0 17*1 2 0 .8 1*0 4 *2 3*1 9 *2 7 .1 674*4 - 5 *1 665*6 645*0 3-86 12*5 9 *0 7 .1 4 *1 —0 * 6 —0 * 9 - 1 *5 - 0 *9 1*4 - 0 *1 3 *5 0 *4 - 8 *5 - 1 1 .6 4 -86 11*0 7 *7 5 .8 3 *0 —1 .4 - 1 *7 - 2 .3 -1*9 -0*1 - 1 *5 1 .0 -1*9 - 8 *5 - 1 0 .1 - 8 .4 1-87 12*0 9 *0 7 .3 4 .8 0 .8 0*7 0*5 1*1 3*1 2 *3 5 .1 3*5 - 0 *4 1 .2 8 .5 2 0 .5 2-87 11*3 8 *5 6 .9 4 .5 0 .9 0 *0 0*5 1*1 2*9 2*1 4 *6 3*1 - 0 *1 1 .2 6 .0 1 4 .0 1*1 3-07 11*0 0 *2 6 *0 4 *5 1*1 1*1 0 .9 1*4 3*1 2 .5 4 .6 3 .4 9 tT 2 *0 5*7 1 0 .9 3 .0 5 .0 4-87 11*5 9 *0 7 *6 5 *6 2 .4 2 .5 2*4 3*0 4*7 4 *3 6 .4 5 *6 3 .6 5 .1 8 .9 1 3 .7 9 .1 1 3 .3 2 2 .4 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4 -8 3 1-04 2-04 3-04 4-04 1-05 2-85 3-05 4-85 1-06 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 IN IT IA L 631*0 671*8 673*7 681*9 717*2 QUARTER PREPA REO BY F EO ERA L R ES E R V E FEBRU A RY 2 5 . 1 9 •• 16 BANK OF Í T * L O U IS tOODS AND S E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS GOVERNMENT PURCH ASES OF < COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 1-83 2—8 3 4 .3 . 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4—A4 1-A5 3-8 5 4-85 1-86 3 .8 3 .3 1 .6 0 .3 - 2 .7 1-84 4*? 4 .2 4 .7 1 2 .6 2-84 8 .0 9 .0 1 0 .9 1 8 .4 2 4 .6 3-84 7 t7 8 .4 9 .7 1 4 .1 1 4 .9 6 .0 4-84 8 .0 8 .6 9 .7 1 3 .1 1 3 .2 8 .0 9 .9 1-85 8 .3 8 .9 9 .9 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 8 .6 1 0 .3 8 .9 9 .7 U .9 1 1 .8 8 .8 9 .7 9 .6 8 .6 9 .2 9 .8 1 0 .6 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 0 .4 1 1 .5 1 2 .1 1 2 .8 4-86 1-87 2-87 6 9 6 .5 7 3 5 .8 7 4 6 .6 7 6 4 .5 7 84 .1 1 0 .7 0 3 2 .0 1 4 .6 8 5 7 .0 9 .5 1 0 .0 1 0 .8 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .7 1 2.1 8 .2 8 .6 9 .1 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 8*4 8 .8 8 .5 8. Q 7 .8 3 .4 - 4 .6 2-86 8 .4 8 .7 9 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .2 8 .6 8 .9 8 .8 8.4 8 .3 5 .5 2 .4 9 .9 1 0 .0 9 .7 8 .2 8 .5 8 .3 7 .9 7 .7 5 .5 3 .4 7 .6 8 .9 1 2.1 0 4 6 .9 0 6 7 .2 8 7 0 .5 5 .3 0 0 6 .3 7 .8 8 .1 8 .5 9 .4 9 .2 7 .7 7 .9 7 .7 7 .3 7 .0 5 .1 3 .4 6 .3 4 .5 3 .6 1-87 7 .6 7 .8 8 .2 9 .1 8 .8 7 .4 7 .6 7 .3 6 .9 6 .7 5 .0 3 .6 5 .8 4 .5 4 .1 4 .5 2-87 7 .7 8 .0 8 .3 9 .1 0 .8 7 .6 7 .8 7 .6 7 .2 7 .0 5 .7 4 .6 6 .6 5 .8 5 .9 7 .1 9 .7 3-87 7 .6 7 .8 8 .1 8 .8 8 .6 7 .4 7 .6 _ 7 .3 7 t9 6 .8 5 .6 4 .7 6 .4 5 .7 5 .7 6 .5 7 .5 5 .3 7 .8 8 .0 8 .3 9 .0 8 .8 7 .7 7 .9 7 .7 7 .4 7 .3 6 .3 5 .6 7 .1 6 .6 6 .9 7 .7 8 .8 0 .4 1 1 .6 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3~-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 •f 4-86 1 CD 8 .4 1 2 .6 0 0 0 .5 1 7 .1 1-86 8 .1 3-86 6 7 6 .1 4-85 3-86 2-86 6 8 0 .7 S-83 2-85 2—#15 6 7 5 .2 4-83 3-85 B IL L IO N S Of DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-87 QUARTER IN IT IA L 0 9 6 .2 9 1 7 .1 9 2 9 .0 9 5 4 .8 QUARTER PREPA REO BY fE D E R A L FEBRU A RY i ? t R ESERVE BANK O f S T . L O U IS GOVERNMENT PURCH ASES Of GOOOS AND S E R V IC E S IN 1982 DOLLARS ______________ CQHPQUNOED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE______________________ B IL L IO N S Of TERM INA L________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUART ER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL. R A T ES QUARTER 2-04 2-05 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 4-84 1-85 3-84 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 4-86 3-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 2-83 1 .1 3-83 1 .4 6 5 0 .9 1 .7 6 5 3 .6 6 4 2 .2 4—83 - 1 .4 - 2 .7 - 6 .8 1-84 0 .6 0 .4 - 0 .2 6 .9 2-84 3 .8 4 .5 5 .5 12 .2 6 5 3 .0 1 7 .7 6 8 0 .2 6 0 4 .5 4 .1 4 .7 8 .9 9 .9 4-84 3 .8 4 .3 4 .8 7 .9 8 .3 3 .9 5 .2 1-85 4 .* 4 .5 5 .0 7 .6 7 .7 4 .6 5 .6 3-84 2-85 4 t¿ 4 .6 5 .0 7 .1 7 .2 2 .6 6 9 3 .2 7 0 3 .4 6 .0 5 .5 7 12 .1 5 .0 3-85 5.3 5 .8 6 .3 8 .3 8 .6 6 .8 7 .9 1 0 .3 1 5 .7 4-85 5 .6 6 .0 6 .5 8 .3 8 .5 7 .1 6 .0 8 .7 9 .6 1 2 .0 8 .4 1-86 4 *3 4 .7 5 .0 6 .3 6 .3 4 .7 5 .1 5 .1 4 .9 4.8 - 0 .3 - 8 .3 4 .9 5 .2 6 .5 6 .4 5 .1 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 2 .4 - 0 .6 2-86 P 7 3 0 .6 7 5 3 .7 7 3 7 .6 7 5 1 .6 7 .8 3-86 4 *5 4 .8 5 .0 6 .2 6 .1 4 .9 5 .2 5 .2 5 .0 5 .0 2 .5 0 .6 5 .4 3 .0 4-86 4 .7 5 .0 5 .2 6 .3 6 .3 5 .2 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 3 .6 2 .4 6 .2 5 .4 0 .6 7 7 1 .8 7 5 9 .6 4 .1 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 1 .9 3 .0 1 .4 0 .6 - 6 .2 4 .1 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 2 .2 1 .1 3 .1 2 .0 1 .7 - 1 .3 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 2 .2 1 .4 3 .1 2 .1 1 .9 0 .0 3 *2 2 .6 4 .7 4 .6 4 .6 3 .4 2 .8 4 .5 3 .9 4 .1 3 .2 6 .5 7 .9 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4 -46 1-87 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 5 .3 2-87 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 5 .2 5 .1 3-87 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 5 .0 4 .9 4-87 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 5 .5 5 .4 4 .6 4 .8 1-83 2-83 3-83 4 - S3 1-84 2-84 3-#4 7 5 7 .2 7 .9 4*1 7 6 6 .7 7 7 1 .7 1 3 .4 7 9 6 .3 2-87 M é F A tfe ò B y tè b ë k A L M S ê lW E BAM OF S T . L O U IS f m m r M r .im ______________________ 17 D IS P O S A B L E PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES O f CHANCE IN IT IA L TERM IN A L QUARTER 1-83 2-03 2-83 \-83 4-8 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 B IL L IO N S Of OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 3-A5 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-07 2-07 3-07 2 * 3 9 5 .4 8*7 0*5 8*2 4-83 1 0 .5 11*4 14*6 1-04 11*3 1 2 .2 1 4 .3 1 4 .0 2-84 10.0 1 0 .3 1 1 .0 9 .3 4 .8 3-84 9 .6 9 *8 10*1 8*7 6 *2 7*5 4-84 9 .0 9 .1 9 .2 7 .9 6 .0 6*6 5*7 00 1 2 * 4 4 3 .2 3-83 8*5 8 .5 8 .5 7 .3 5 .8 6*1 5*4 5*0 2-05 _ 9 *0 9 *0 9*2 8 *3 7 *2 7*8 7*9 9*0 2 * 5 2 7 .9 2 * 6 1 1 .8 2 * 6 4 2 .0 2 *6 9 1 .1 2 * 7 2 0 .6 2 *7 6 2 .2 2 * 0 4 0 .4 13*1 3-85 8*1 8 *0 8 .0 7 .0 5 .9 6*1 5*8 5*8 6 .2 - 0 *2 4-85 8*1 8 .0 8*0 7 .2 6 .3 6*5 6*4 6*5 7 .0 4*1 8 *6 2 *8 ^ 7 .2 1-86 8* i 8 *1 8*1 7*4 6*6 6 *8 6*7 6*9 7*4 5*5 0*5 8*4 8 *0 7 .4 6 .7 6*9 6*9 7*1 7 .5 6*1 8*3 8*1 2 * 9 0 6 .6 2 *9 6 6 .0 7*0 3 #022.4 2-86 8*1 8 .1 3-86 7 .7 7 .6 7 .5 6 .9 6 .2 6*4 6*3 6*3 6 .6 5*3 6 *7 6*1 4*9 2 .1 4-86 7 .4 7 .3 7 .2 6 .6 5 .9 6*1 5*9 5*9 6*1 4*9 6*0 5*3 4 .3 2 .6 3*1 1-87 7 .4 7 .4 7 .3 6 *8 6 .2 6*3 6*2 6*2 6*4 5*5 6*4 6 .0 5 .4 4 .6 5*9 0 .7 3 *0 3 8 .2 3 *0 6 1 .6 3 *1 2 5 .9 2-87 7 .0 6 .9 6 .8 6 .3 5 .7 5*8 5*7 5*7 5 .7 4*8 5*6 5*1 4*4 3 .6 4* I 4 .6 0 .6 3-87 7 .1 7 .0 6 *9 6 .4 5 .9 6 *0 5*9 5*9 6 .0 W 5*9 5*6 5 .1 4*6 5 .2 5 .9 4 .5 8 .5 4-87 7 .3 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 6*2 6*3 6*2 6*3 6*4 5*7 6 *4 6 .1 5*8 5*5 6 .2 6 .9 6 .4 9 .4 1 0 .2 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-8 5 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-07 2-87 3-07 IN IT IA L 3 *1 3 0 .6 3 *1 9 5 .3 3 * 2 7 4 .2 QUARTER PREPA RED BY F E Ó É R A l R É4É& VÉ F £ B R U ft* L - 3 » t ÓANK OF S T . LOUIS 1 ? .Q Q _________________________________________________________ D IS P O S A B L E PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUND ED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE_______________________________________________________________________ B IL L IO N S Of TERMINAL ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-83 2-83 3-83 1-84 4-04 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-83 2-04 3-84 1-05 4-06 1-07 2-07 3-87 2-03 2*31 1*1 4 *0 2 * 3 3 5 .4 3-83 4 .1 4 *3 4-83 6*1 7*2 10*2 1-84 6 *9 7 .9 9 *8 9 *4 2-84 5*8 6*3 7 .0 5*4 1*6 2 * 3 9 2 .7 2 * 4 4 6 .9 2 * 4 5 6 .6 Z *4 7 9 .2 3-84 5*5 5 .8 6*2 4 *8 2 *7 3*7 4-84 5*1 5 *3 5 .5 4 .3 2*7 3*3 2*0 4*7 4 .8 4 .8 3 *8 2 *4 2*7 2*2 1*7 1-05 2 * 4 9 6 .3 2 * 5 0 6 .0 2 * 5 5 0 .4 2-85 5*1 5*2 5*3 4 *6 3*6 4*1 4*3 5*0 9*5 3-85 4*2 4 *3 4 .3 3*4 2*5 2*6 2 .4 2*2 2*5 - 3 *1 4-85 4*2 4 *3 4 .3 3*5 2 *7 2 .9 2*8 2*8 3*1 0*6 4*4 1-86 4 *5 4 *5 4 *6 3*9 3*3 3 .5 3*5 3*6 4*1 2*7 5*0 7*2 2-86 4 .7 4 .8 4*8 4 .3 3*8 4*1 4*1 4 .3 4*9 4 *0 6*5 7*5 7*0 3-86 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 3*0 3*3 3*5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 3 .0 4*5 4*6 3*3 - 1 *0 4-86 4 .1 4*1 4 *0 3*6 3*0 3*2 3*1 3*2 3*4 2 .5 3 .7 3*6 2*4 - 0 *3 2 *5 3 0 .2 2 * 5 6 5 .5 2 * 6 1 0 .5 2 * 6 6 0 .2 2 * 6 5 3 .2 2 * 6 5 6 .7 0*5 1 0» -j 4 .0 4 .0 3*5 3*0 3*1 3 .1 3*1 3*3 2«6 3*6 3*4 2*5 0*7 1♦6 #2*7 3*5 3 .4 3*4 2 *9 2 *4 2*5 2*4 2*3 2 .4 1*7 2 *4 2*1 1*1 -0*6 —0 *4 —0 * 8 -4*3 3-87 3 *5 3 .5 3*4 3 *0 2 *6 2*7 2*6 2*5 2*6 2*0 2 .7 2*4 1*6 0*4 o • 0» 2 * 6 7 4 .6 4*0 2-87 0*9 0 *0 4*5 4-87 3 ♦6 3 *6 3 *6 3*2 2 *8 2*9 2*$ 2*8 2*9 2*4 3 .0 2 .0 2*2 1*3 1*0 2*1 1*9 5*1 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3—84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4—06 i- é i 2 * 6 4 5 .5 2 * 6 7 4 .7 5*7 2 *7 1 2 .1 2-é7 ^ * 7 T nTTTal áuÁ?TTflr PrIJAaeTTb V féVékAL AÉSÉAVÉ BANK OF ST. LOUIS ffcyy^T 18 _______________________ CORPORATE P R O F IT S A FTER T A X E S* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATFS Of CHANGE IN IT IA L TERM INAL QUARTER *-82 1-83 2—83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-ft4 B I L L I O N S Of OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1-85 2—ft 5 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1 1 0 .6 1-83 26*4 |2-83 4 7 .3 7 1 .7 3-83 4 9 .5 6 2 .5 5 3 .9 4-63 3 7 .5 4 1 .4 28*3 7 .0 1 2 6 .6 1 4 1 .0 1 43 .4 1 52 .5 1-84 35* 5 3 7 .9 28*2 1 7 .0 2 7 .9 2-84 2 8 .1 2 8 .4 1 9 .4 9 .8 1 1 .2 -*»4 1 51 .2 3-84 1 9 ,0 17*8 9 .2 0*3 - 1 *9 - 1 4 .0 - 2 3 .5 141 .4 4-84 15*5 1 4 .0 6 *5 -1*0 1-85 7 .8 5 .7 - 1 .4 - 8 .4 2-85 7 .4 5 .5 - 0 .7 - 6 .7 - 2 *9 - 1 1 .5 - 15 *2 - 8 .8 - 1 4 .• - 1 7 .5 - 1 5 .3 3-85 8 .2 6 .6 1 .1 - 4 .1 - 5 . 6 - 1 0 .2 4-85 8 .8 7 .3 2 .4 - 2 .1 - 3 .2 1-86 4 .6 3 .0 - 1 .7 - 6 .0 - 1 9 .6 1 2 4 .8 3 .9 1 29 .7 - 8 .3 - 9 .0 1 0 .1 1 6 .7 - 7 .6 - 4 .0 - 3 .4 1 1 .8 1 6 .0 15*3 1 3 4 .4 - 7 .3 - 1 1 .0 - 1 2 .0 - 9 .9 - 1 0 .7 - 2 .2 - 4 .1 - 1 3 .1 - 3 4 .5 1 2 0 .9 4 *7 3*1 - l.l -5 *0 - 6 *2 3—86 6 .1 4 .8 0 .9 - 2 .6 - 3 .5 4-96 6 .5 5 .3 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .2 1-87 5 .1 3 *9 0*5 - 2 .5 - 3 .2 2-87 5 *8 4 .7 1*5 - 1 .3 3-87 6 .7 5 .7 2 .7 0 .2 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 INCOME B A S IS 1 2 3 .6 - 3 7 .8 - 1 1 .5 2-86 ♦ NATIONAL 1 39 .2 - 6 *1 - 1 1 .2 - 1 9 .0 - 2 3 .6 - 2 3 .6 —6 . 1 1 2 2 .3 - 1 0 .1 -8*0 - 8 *3 - 0 .8 - 2 .0 - 6 .4 —4*0 - 3 .7 3 .5 3 .4 0 .4 - 4 .1 1 6 .0 2 8 .5 - 4 .7 - 2 .4 - 1 .9 4 .7 4 .9 2 .6 - 0 .3 1 4 .7 2 0 .0 1 2 .2 6 .7 7 .4 - 1 .8 - 1 4.1 - 7 .5 - 1 7 .2 4 .7 1 30 .2 - 5 .6 - 3 .6 - 3 .3 2 .2 1 .9 - 0 .4 - 3 .2 - i* f l ^A 1 — tr a ^y H - 3 *8 - 1 *8 - 1 *4 3 .8 3*6 2 .1 0 *0 8 .9 1 0 .0 4 .4 0 .7 1 8 .2 - 0 .3 - 2 .0 - 1 .9 0 .1 0 .7 5 .7 5 .9 4 .6 3 .2 1 1 .3 1 2 .6 9 .0 7 .9 2 1 .0 2 3 .9 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4 -86 1-87 2-87 in it ia l 1 3 4 .0 1 2 9 .0 1 3 4 .5 q uarter PREPA REO BY F E D E R A L PEBRUA RY 2 5 , 1988 REStRVE BANK OF S T . HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1984-87:11 are published in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-Si are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical T a b l e s , For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 1 4 1 .9 19 L O U IS I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S MANUF ACT UR I NG AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJ USTED SOURCE*. «BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFL E CT SHADED AREAS R E P R E S E N T LATEST DATA PL OTTED: P E R I ODS OF B U S I N E S S CHANGES U. S . DE P ART ME NT OF COMMERCE IN E S T I MAT I O N PROCEDURES. RECESSIONS. DECEMBER P R E L I MI N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF S T. L OUI S
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