Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1994
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JUNE 1994 N ational Economic Trends No New Tax Revenues? The Laffer Curve and the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 Last August, Congress passed the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA-93), which in creased some tax rates, retroactive to January 1993, and cut spending in an attempt to reduce the deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the new law will reduce the cumulative budget deficit by $433 billion from 1994 to 1998 with a package of $241 billion in new revenue and $77 billion in direct spending cuts. The balance of the deficit reduction will come from reduced debt servicing and caps on discre tionary spending for fiscal years (FY) 1996 to 1998. Some economists argued that the revenue projec tions were optimistic because they relied heavily on higher marginal tax rates for high-income individuals. Indeed, nearly half of the projected revenue increase, $115 billion, comes from higher taxes imposed on these individuals. Critics argue that high-income taxpayers are very sensitive to changes in their marginal tax rate. Increasing their marginal tax rates would not increase their tax payments since, the critics assume, these individuals are beyond the upward-sloping portion of the “Laffer Curve,” which indicates that tax revenues increase initially with tax rates, but eventually decline with further increases. If true, the shortfall in revenue would make the OBRA-93’s deficit reduction goals unattainable. Thus far, the targets set in OBRA-93 are being met; for the first seven months of FY 1994 the federal deficit fell 23.8 percent relative to the first seven months of FY 1993. The reduction of the deficit reflects an increase in revenues of 8.8 percent, while outlays increased only 2 percent. These figures com pare favorably with the budget projections made by the CBO in January of this year. These projections show a decrease in the deficit of 12.6 percent from FY 1993, with revenue increasing 8.5 percent and outlays increasing 4.7 percent. Undoubtedly, the recent unex pected strength of the U.S. economy — real Gross Domestic Product has grown at a 5 percent annual rate since the passage of OBRA-93 — has been important in the slow growth of outlays, as improvements in the economy reduce outlays for cyclical social programs. Higher income automatically yields higher tax revenues. Consequently, a portion of the 6.2 percent increase in individual income tax receipts for the first seven months of FY 1994 reflects a 4.9 percent rise in personal income for this period, as compared to the same period in FY 1993. Still, individual tax receipts grew noticeably faster than personal income. This fact suggests that, contrary to the predictions of tax increase critics, higher marginal tax rates yielded higher revenues, and OBRA-93 is likely to meet or exceed the CBO’s projections for FY 1994. — Peter Yoo Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824. C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1988 1989 1990 1991 Percent 1992 1993 1994 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 10-92 4.3 11-92 3.9 3.4 12-92 3.4 3.0 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 1982-84=100 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 141.7 142.1 2.6 142.4 1-93 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2-93 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 4.3 3-93 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.4 2.5 4-93 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.4 4.3 5-93 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.4 6-93 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.7 0.8 7-93 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.7 8-93 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.5 3.4 9-93 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.1 0.8 10-93 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.5 4.2 11-93 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.3 12-93 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.5 1-94 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.0 2-94 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.7 3.3 3-94 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.7 4.2 4-94 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.9 1.6 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 142.7 143.2 143.5 144.0 2.5 144.3 144.4 144.6 145.0 145.1 145.6 146.0 146.3 146.3 146.7 147.2 147.4 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 13, 1994 2 Consumer Price Index - Food (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 1982-84=100 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 139.0 10-92 0.0 11-92 -0.4 -0.9 12-92 0.6 0.9 2.6 1-93 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.0 2-93 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.7 3.5 3-93 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.0 3.1 2.6 4-93 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 138.9 139.2 139.2 139.6 139.9 140.2 5-93 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.4 5.3 8.0 6-93 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 -3.3 141.1 7-93 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 -1.7 0.0 8-93 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 0.3 2.2 4.3 9-93 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.1 2.6 3.9 3.5 10-93 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.1 3.5 4.6 4.8 6.1 2.1 3.3 4.1 4.0 4.3 2.6 2.7 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.3 6.1 140.7 140.7 141.2 141.6 142.3 11-93 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 12-93 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 1-94 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.3 2.1 -1.7 143.1 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 -2.5 -3.3 142.7 142.6 143.3 2-94 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.5 3-94 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.6 -1.1 -0.8 1.7 4-94 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 -0.6 -0.3 1.3 0.8 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 142.9 143.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 13, 1994 Consumer Price Index - Energy (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 10-92 4.8 11-92 6.6 8.4 12-92 4.7 4.7 1.2 1-93 2.9 2.3 -0.6 -2.3 2-93 1.6 0.9 -1.5 -2.8 -3.4 3-93 2.9 2.6 1.2 1.2 2.9 9.6 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 1982-84=100 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 103.6 104.3 104.4 104.2 103.9 104.7 4-93 2.7 2.3 1.2 1.2 2.3 5.3 1.2 5-93 1.5 1.0 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 1.2 -2.8 -6.7 6-93 0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -0.6 -3.8 -6.1 -5.6 104.8 104.2 103.7 7-93 0.6 0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 -2.8 -4.1 -2.8 0.0 8-93 -0.2 -0.7 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7 -3.9 -5.1 -4.5 -4.0 -7.8 9-93 -0.6 -1.1 -2.0 -2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -4.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.2 -6.2 -4.6 10-93 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 -0.3 -0.6 0.7 2.3 3.1 9.1 24.6 11-93 0.3 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -1.6 -2.0 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 2.4 6.0 -9.9 12-93 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -2.3 -2.7 -2.1 -1.5 -1.8 -0.3 1.2 -8.8 -7.8 1-94 -0.8 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -3.0 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.1 -1.5 -8.9 -8.4 -8.9 2-94 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.6 -2.3 0.4 4.8 20.5 3-94 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.9 -0.9 1.5 4.7 12.3 4.7 4-94 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.8 -1.5 0.2 2.4 6.4 0.0 -4.5 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 103.7 103.0 102.6 104.5 103.6 102.9 102.1 103.7 104.1 103.7 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 13, 1994 3 P roducer P rice Index —F in ish ed Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1988 1989 1990 1991 Percent 1992 1993 1994 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (Compounded Aiinual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 Initial Month 1-93 2-93 10-92 2.9 11-92 1.0 -1.0 12-92 0.6 -0.5 0.0 1-93 1.5 1.0 2.0 3.9 2-93 2.1 1.9 2.9 4.4 4.9 3-93 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.9 3.9 2.9 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 1982 = 100 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 124.0 123.9 123.9 124.3 124.8 125.1 4-93 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.4 4.6 4.4 5.9 5-93 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.9 0.0 6-93 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.0 -2.8 -5.6 7-93 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.0 -1.9 -2.8 0.0 8-93 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -1.9 -3.8 -5.0 -4.7 -9.2 9-93 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -2.7 -3.3 -2.5 -3.8 2.0 10-93 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.4 -2.8 -2.1 -2.8 0.5 -1.0 11-93 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.9 -2.2 -1.5 -1.9 0.6 0.0 125.7 125.7 125.1 125.1 124.1 124.3 124.2 1.0 124.3 12-93 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.8 -2.0 -1.4 -1.7 0.2 -0.3 0.0 -1.0 1-94 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 -1.0 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.9 2-94 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.6 4.4 5.9 3-94 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.4 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.9 4.4 2.9 4-94 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.0 -1.0 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4 124.2 124.5 125.1 125.4 125.3 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 12, 1994 Civilian E m p loym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons 126 119 i--- 1--- 1— 1988 --- 1--- 1 1989 r 1990 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Initial Month Terminal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 10-92 -0.5 11-92 1.0 2.6 12-92 1.3 2.2 1.9 1-93 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 2-93 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.5 2.7 3-93 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 Thousands of Persons 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 117,723 117,974 118,155 118,178 118,442 1.2 118,562 4-93 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 5-93 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 3.2 6.2 6-93 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 3.1 0.1 7-93 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.7 1.0 8-93 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.8 1.7 2.6 3.3 9-93 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 -1.2 10-93 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 3.8 11-93 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.2 3.9 12-93 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.7 1-94 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 6.2 6.9 8.5 13.8 2-94 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 5.5 5.9 6.6 8.2 2.9 118,585 119,180 119,187 1.9 119,370 119,692 "% ■ A - 119,568 119,941 4.0 120,332 120,661 121,971 122,258 3-94 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 0.3 -2.1 4-94 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.4 3.0 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 122,037 122,338 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 6, 1994 P ayroll E m ploym en t Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Millions of Persons 125 125 115 115 105 105 95 85 75 -i— 1988 |— i— — i— 1989 — 1990 65 r i— 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Payroll Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Thousands of Persons Initial Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 108,789 10-92 1.3 11-92 1.4 1.5 12-92 1.5 1.6 1.8 1-93 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 2-93 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.4 3-93 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.3 4-93 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.5 2.8 5-93 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.6 6-93 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 7-93 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.5 2.6 8-93 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.1 -0.4 9-93 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 0.9 10-93 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.8 11-93 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 12-93 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 1-94 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 -0.3 2-94 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.3 3.0 108,921 109,079 109,235 109,539 109,565 109,820 110,058 110,101 110,338 110,305 2.2 110,502 110,664 110,880 111,110 111,079 111,357 3-94 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 4.1 5.1 4-94 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.7 4.0 2.9 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 111,821 112,088 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 6, 1994 Service-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Initial Month Terminal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 Thousands of Persons 1-94 2-94 3-94 10-92 1.9 11-92 1.9 1.9 12-92 2.0 2.1 2.4 1-93 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2-93 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.3 3-93 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.1 4-93 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.1 5-93 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.5 3.0 6-93 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 1.5 7-93 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 3.2 8-93 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 0.2 9-93 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 3.0 10-93 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.6 11-93 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 12-93 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.6 1-94 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 -0.6 2-94 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 3.7 3-94 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 4.4 5.2 4-94 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 4.0 2.8 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 85,794 85,926 86,094 86,234 86,470 86,549 86,840 87,052 87,160 87,390 87,402 87,616 87,730 87,886 3.0 88,102 88,055 88,325 88,696 88,899 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 6, 1994 Goods-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 10-92 -0.9 11-92 -0.4 0.0 12-92 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 1-93 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Initial Month Persons 6-93 7-93 5-93 Thousands of 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 22,995 22,995 22,985 23,001 2-93 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.2 3.6 3-93 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 -2.7 4-93 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -2.3 -1.9 5-93 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -1.1 -0.3 1.4 6-93 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -3.3 23,069 23,016 22,980 23,006 22,941 7-93 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 0.4 8-93 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.0 -2.3 9-93 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 -1.6 -1.0 -1.6 -0.9 10-93 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 11-93 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 12-93 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 0.7 1-94 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.8 2-94 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 3-94 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.7 5.0 4-94 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.9 4.2 3.4 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 22,948 22,903 22,886 2.5 22,934 22,994 23,008 23,024 23,032 23,125 23,189 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 6, 1994 7 Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation. (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 June 1989 = 100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 101.2 3-89 4.9 4-89 4.9 4.8 1-90 5.1 5.2 5.6 2-90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 3-90 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.3 4-90 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 1-91 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.6 2-91 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 3-91 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 4-91 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 1-92 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 2-92 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3-92 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 4-92 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 1-93 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 2-93 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 102.4 103.8 105.1 106.2 107.2 108.4 109.7 110.8 111.9 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.8 117.9 3-93 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 4-93 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 1-94 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 118.9 119.9 120.7 Data are for the last month of quarter. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis April 26, 1994 8 In d u strial P rod u ctio n Seasonally Adjusted i-----1-----1---------- 1---- 1-----r 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 10-92 10.6 11-92 10.0 9.3 12-92 9.3 8.7 8.0 1-93 7.5 6.5 5.1 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 1987 = 100 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 107.5 108.3 109.0 2.2 109.2 2-93 7.6 6.8 6.0 5.1 8.0 3-93 6.5 5.7 4.8 3.7 4.5 1.1 4-93 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.2 4.8 3.3 5.6 5-93 4.8 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 -5.3 6-93 4.8 4.1 3.3 2.6 2.7 1.4 1.5 -0.5 4.5 7-93 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.0 3.1 2.2 2.5 1.5 5.0 5.6 8-93 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.9 3.0 2.2 2.4 1.6 4.1 3.9 2.2 9-93 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 3.6 3.3 2.2 2.2 10-93 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.5 4.2 4.1 3.7 4.4 6.7 11-93 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.6 5.2 5.3 5.2 6.3 8.4 10.1 12-93 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.8 6.3 6.6 6.8 8.0 10.1 11.8 13.5 1-94 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.7 9.2 10.0 10.0 6.5 2-94 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.0 6.2 6.5 6.6 7.3 8.4 8.8 8.4 5.9 5.4 3-94 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 6.2 6.5 6.6 7.2 8.1 8.3 7.9 6.1 5.9 6.4 4-94 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.3 7.5 6.9 5.4 5.0 4.8 3.2 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 109.9 110.0 110.5 110.0 110.4 110.9 111.1 111.3 111.9 112.8 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.7 116.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 16, 1994 P erso n a l In com e in 1987 Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 4.8 4.8 T------ 1------ 1------ ------- 1------ 1-------1-------------- 1------ 1 1988 1989 i 1 1990 i-------1-------1-------------- '------ 1------ 1" 1991 1992 1993 1994 The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Initial Month Terninal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 3-94 2-94 3,666.8 10-92 11.8 11-92 4.0 12-92 23.4 29.7 73.7 1-93 -0.2 -3.9 -4.2 -47.2 2-93 0.2 -2.5 -2.2 -26.6 1.9 3,656.9 -3.2 3,829.1 3,630.7 3,636.5 3,660.4 3-93 1.5 -0.4 0.3 -16.5 5.0 8.2 4-93 2.9 1.5 2.5 -10.2 7.2 9.9 11.7 5-93 2.7 1.4 2.2 -8.0 5.6 6.9 6.3 1.1 6-93 2.1 1.0 1.6 -7.1 4.0 4.6 3.4 -0.5 -2.1 7-93 1.5 0.4 0.9 -6.6 2.7 2.8 1.5 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 8-93 2.7 1.8 2.4 -4.2 4.3 4.7 4.0 2.2 2.6 5.0 14.9 9-93 2.6 1.8 2.3 -3.6 4.0 4.3 3.6 2.1 2.3 3.9 8.1 3,694.2 3,697.7 3,691.2 3,678.5 3,721.3 1.6 3,726.3 10-93 2.7 2.0 2.5 -2.8 4.0 4.3 3.8 2.5 2.8 4.0 6.9 3.1 4.6 11-93 2.9 2.2 2.7 -2.1 4.1 4.4 3.9 2.9 3.2 4.2 6.4 3.7 4.8 5.0 12-93 3.2 2.6 3.1 -1.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.4 3.8 4.8 6.6 4.6 5.7 6.2 1-94 2.2 1.6 2.0 -2.1 3.0 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.4 1.3 1.2 0.1 2-94 3.2 2.7 3.1 -0.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.6 4.3 5.6 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.5 3.1 19.7 3-94 3.2 2.7 3.1 -0.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.6 4.3 5.3 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.2 11.3 3.6 4-94 2.7 2.2 2.6 -0.8 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.2 4.1 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.3 1.0 5.4 -1.0 -5.4 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 3,740.2 3,755.5 7.5 3,778.1 -2.3 -11.3 3,740.7 3,797.2 3,808.3 3.790.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 31, 1994 10 R etail Sales Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars B'Hlions of Dollars 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Month 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 Initial Month Dollars 6-93 7-93 5-93 Millions of 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 10-92 17.3 11-92 7.4 -1.6 12-92 8.7 4.7 11.3 1-93 6.8 3.5 6.2 1.3 2-93 3.5 0.3 1.0 -3.9 3-93 0.6 -2.4 -2.6 4-93 3.4 1.2 1.8 -0.5 -1.0 3.1 21.5 5-93 3.5 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.3 3.5 12.7 4.4 6-93 3.6 2.0 2.5 1.1 1.0 3.6 9.7 4.2 3.9 7-93 3.6 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.6 3.8 8.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 8-93 3.8 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.1 4.0 7.7 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.0 9-93 3.4 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.8 3.4 6.3 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.4 -0.1 10-93 4.7 3.7 4.2 3.5 3.8 5.5 8.3 6.3 6.7 7.4 8.3 10.0 21.3 11-93 4.7 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.9 5.4 7.8 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.4 8.1 12.5 4.5 12-93 5.1 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.5 5.9 8.2 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.9 12.0 7.7 1-94 3.8 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.8 3.9 5.7 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.8 -0.2 2-94 4.7 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.1 5.2 7.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 7.8 4.7 4.7 1.7 20.7 3-94 5.4 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.9 6.1 7.8 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 9.3 7.1 7.7 6.6 18.9 4-94 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.8 6.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.3 4.0 3.9 2.2 8.3 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 117,773 117,616 118,673 118,801 -8.7 117,898 -6.9 -10.7 -12.6 116,581 118,491 118,920 119,303 119,734 120,226 120,212 122,158 122,604 11.0 123,679 122,107 -2.4 -14.2 124,034 17.1 125,679 2.6 -10.1 2-94 124,564 3-94 Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100). Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 12, 1994 11 In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales Manufacturing and Trade 1.60 t ------1------r— |------1------1------1------------ 1------1— 1988 1989 ‘i i------1------r 1990 1994 1993 1992 1991 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Manufacturing and Trade Inventories (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terninai Month Initial Month 8-92 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 Millions of Dollars 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 9-92 -1.4 10-92 -0.5 0.5 11-92 0.4 1.3 2.1 12-92 0.7 1.4 1.9 1-93 1.4 2.1 2.7 3.0 4.3 2-93 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.1 3-93 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.6 6.1 4-93 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.5 5.3 4.4 5-93 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.0 6-93 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 2.7 1.9 0.8 7-93 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 8-93 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.8 9-93 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.7 10-93 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.7 11-93 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.1 6.6 12-93 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 -1.6 1-94 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 0.2 2.1 2-94 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.0 3.9 5.7 3-94 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.8 1.7 -2.2 9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5-93 6-93 7-93 8-93 9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 1-94 2-94 8-92 838,850 839,173 840,645 1.7 841,831 844,777 846,950 851,123 854,209 856,288 856,853 857,008 858,979 860,885 862,110 866,720 865,584 867,065 871,110 869,515 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 13, 1994 12 Gross D om estic P roduct Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars 1988 1989 1990 Trillions of Dollars 1991 1992 1993 1994 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Teminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 3-89 0.0 4-89 0.7 1.5 1-90 1.6 2.5 3.5 2-90 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.5 3-90 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.3 -0.9 4-90 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.8 -2.0 -3.2 1-91 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.2 -2.1 -2.8 -2.4 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 4,839.0 4,856.7 4,898.3 4,917.1 4,906.5 4,867.2 4,837.8 2-91 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 1.5 3-91 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 0.1 1.4 1.4 4-91 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.6 1-92 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 3.5 2-92 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.2 2.8 3-92 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.4 4-92 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.7 4,855.6 4,872.6 4,879.6 4,922.0 4,956.5 4,998.2 5,068.3 1-93 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 0.8 2-93 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 1.3 5,078.2 5,102.1 1.9 3-93 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.9 4-93 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.9 4.9 7.0 1-94 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.0 3.0 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5,138.3 5,225.6 5,264.1 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27, 1994 13 Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1988 1989 1990 1991 Percent 1992 1993 1994 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price Deflator (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 3-89 3.8 4-89 3.7 3.7 1-90 4.2 4.4 5.2 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1987 = 100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 109.1 110.1 111.5 2-90 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.4 3-90 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.0 112.7 4-90 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.3 1-91 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.0 2-91 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.1 3-91 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.1 4-91 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 1-92 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 2-92 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 3-92 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.0 4-92 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 3.3 1-93 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.5 2-93 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3-93 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 4-93 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 1-94 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 113.8 115.0 116.4 2.9 117.3 118.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 118.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 120.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 120.9 2.6 121.2 3.1 122.2 123.3 3.6 124.0 3.0 2.3 1.6 124.5 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.6 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 124.9 125.7 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 14 Final Sales in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 3-89 1.8 4-89 1.2 0.7 1-90 2.6 2.9 5.2 2-90 1.8 1.8 2.4 -0.4 3-90 1.6 1.5 1.8 0.1 4-90 1.2 1.1 1.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 1-91 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -2.7 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 4-93 4,823.0 4,831.8 4,893.6 4,889.0 0.5 4,895.6 4,888.0 4,855.2 2-91 0.8 0.7 0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 1.9 3-91 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 4-91 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 4,878.0 4,873.5 -0.1 4,872.5 1-92 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.3 2.2 4.5 2-92 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.9 1.4 3-92 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.7 4,926.9 4,943.8 4,988.6 4-92 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.6 4.7 5.8 1-93 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.4 -0.8 2-93 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.2 3.2 3-93 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.9 3.3 3.4 4-93 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.1 4.5 5.1 6.8 1-94 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.5 2.2 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 5,059.6 5,048.9 5,089.1 5,131.8 5,217.1 5,245.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27, 1994 Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 3-89 2.9 4-89 1.9 0.8 1-90 2.2 1.8 2.8 2-90 1.8 1.5 1.8 0.9 3-90 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.1 4-90 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -2.7 1-91 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.2 -2.8 -2.8 2-91 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -1.3 -0.6 1.8 3-91 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 1.5 1.3 4-91 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 1-92 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 4.3 2-92 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 3.0 1.8 3-92 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.4 3.0 4.2 4-92 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.0 3.8 4.9 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3,235.3 3,242.0 3,264.4 3,271.6 3,288.4 3,265.9 3,242.7 3,256.9 3,267.1 3,267.5 3,302.3 3,316.8 3,350.9 5.6 3,397.2 1-93 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.2 0.8 2-93 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.3 2.1 3.4 3,403.8 3-93 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.5 2.9 3.9 4.4 4-93 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 1-94 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3,432.7 3,469.6 3,506.9 3,546.3 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hav 27, 1994 15 Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-89 -7.6 4-89 -6.8 -5.9 1-90 -2.3 0.4 2-90 -6.6 -6.3 3-90 -9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 4-93 3-93 211.2 208.0 7.1 211.6 -6.4 -18.3 201.2 189.0 4-90 -12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3 1-91 -14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5 2-91 -12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1 1.2 176.3 163.8 164.3 3-91 -9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2 -9.5 -4.0 9.0 17.3 4-91 -7.1 -7.1 -7.2 -9.1 -7.5 -4.2 1.6 12.6 18.8 20.3 1-92 -5.2 -4.9 -4.8 -6.2 -4.3 -1.0 4.5 13.7 18.2 18.6 16.8 2-92 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.4 -1.4 2.0 7.2 15.3 19.1 19.6 19.3 21.8 3-92 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -3.0 -1.1 1.9 6.3 12.8 15.3 14.7 12.9 11.0 1.2 4-92 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 1.8 4.9 9.3 15.4 18.0 18.1 17.6 17.8 15.9 32.8 1-93 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 4.6 8.4 13.6 15.5 15.2 14.2 13.5 10.9 16.1 1.5 2-93 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 0.8 3.2 6.5 10.8 12.0 11.3 9.8 8.5 5.4 6.9 -4.1 -9.5 3-93 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.6 3.9 7.0 10.9 12.0 11.4 10.1 9.1 6.7 8.1 1.0 0.7 11.9 4-93 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.9 3.5 5.8 8.8 12.6 13.8 13.5 12.6 12.0 10.5 12.5 7.9 10.1 21.4 31.7 1-94 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.3 3.8 6.0 8.7 12.2 13.3 12.9 12.1 11.5 10.1 11.6 7.8 9.5 16.6 19.0 7.6 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 171.0 179.1 186.2 195.6 196.2 210.6 211.4 206.2 212.1 227.2 231.4 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 541.8 3-89 -0.3 4-89 -2.0 -3.7 1-90 2.0 3.1 10.4 2-90 0.4 0.7 2.9 -4.1 3-90 1.3 1.7 3.6 0.4 5.0 4-90 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 -2.4 -1.6 1-91 -2.2 -2.5 -2.3 -5.2 -5.6 -10.5 -13.2 2-91 -2.3 -2.6 -2.4 -4.7 -4.9 -8.0 -8.1 -2.7 3-91 -2.4 -2.7 -2.6 -4.6 -4.7 -7.0 -6.7 -3.3 -3.8 4-91 -2.7 -3.0 -2.9 -4.7 -4.8 -6.6 -6.3 -3.9 -4.5 -5.1 1-92 -2.2 -2.4 -2.2 -3.7 -3.6 -5.0 -4.4 -2.1 -1.9 -0.9 3.5 2-92 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -1.4 1.1 2.1 4.2 9.2 15.1 3-92 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9 -1.6 -0.7 1.6 2.5 4.1 7.4 9.3 3.8 4-92 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.3 2.4 3.3 4.8 7.4 8.8 5.7 7.6 1-93 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 4.8 6.3 8.8 10.1 8.5 11.0 14.4 2-93 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.1 3.2 5.2 6.2 7.7 10.1 11.4 10.5 12.8 15.5 16.6 3-93 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.6 5.4 6.4 7.7 9.7 10.7 9.9 11.4 12.7 11.9 7.4 4-93 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.5 4.1 4.0 5.0 6.9 7.9 9.2 11.2 12.3 11.9 13.6 15.1 15.3 14.7 22.5 1-94 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 4.1 5.1 6.8 7.7 8.9 10.6 11.5 11.0 12.3 13.2 12.9 11.7 14.0 6.1 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 536.7 550.2 544.5 551.2 540.2 -7.7 521.4 517.8 512.8 506.1 510.5 528.8 533.8 543.7 562.3 584.3 594.8 625.7 635.0 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27, 1994 16 Exports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 4-93 Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 3-89 0.8 4-89 6.8 13.1 1-90 8.5 12.6 12.1 2-90 8.3 10.9 9.8 3-90 6.2 7.5 5.8 2.7 -1.9 4-90 6.7 8.0 6.7 5.0 3.7 9.6 1-91 5.6 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.2 4.3 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 472.9 487.7 501.8 7.6 511.1 508.6 520.4 -0.8 519.4 2-91 7.2 8.2 7.4 6.5 6.2 9.1 8.8 19.4 3-91 6.8 7.5 6.8 5.9 5.6 7.5 6.8 10.9 3.0 4-91 7.4 8.2 7.6 6.9 6.8 8.7 8.4 11.7 8.0 13.3 1-92 7.2 7.8 7.3 6.7 6.5 8.0 7.7 9.9 7.0 9.0 542.9 546.9 564.2 571.0 4.9 2-92 6.5 7.0 6.5 5.8 5.6 6.8 6.3 7.8 5.0 5.7 2.1 -0.6 3-92 6.5 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.7 6.7 6.3 7.5 5.3 5.9 3.6 2.9 6.5 4-92 6.7 7.1 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.9 6.6 7.7 5.9 6.5 4.9 4.8 7.6 8.8 1-93 6.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.6 6.4 4.7 4.9 3.4 3.0 4.2 3.0 -2.4 2-93 5.9 6.2 5.8 5.3 5.1 5.8 5.4 6.1 4.5 4.8 3.4 3.1 4.0 3.2 0.5 570.2 579.3 591.6 588.0 593.2 3.6 3-93 5.5 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 5.2 4.8 5.4 3.9 4.0 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.2 0.1 1.3 -0.9 4-93 6.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.7 6.3 6.0 6.6 5.5 5.7 4.8 4.8 5.7 5.6 4.8 7.3 9.2 20.4 1-94 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.5 6.0 4.8 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.7 4.5 3.6 5.2 5.7 9.2 -1.0 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 591.9 620.0 618.4 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 Imports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-89 6.5 4-89 4.9 1-90 5.1 4.4 5.6 2-90 5.2 4.8 5.5 5.4 3-90 4.2 3.7 3.8 2.9 0.5 4-90 1.9 1.0 0.4 -1.3 -4.4 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 550.5 3.3 555.0 562.6 570.0 570.7 -9.1 557.2 1-91 -0.1 -1.2 -2.0 -3.8 -6.7 -10.1 -11.1 2-91 1.3 0.6 0.1 -0.9 -2.4 -3.4 -0.4 11.7 3-91 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.2 3.5 11.7 11.8 4-91 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.4 4.2 9.9 9.0 6.3 1-92 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.8 4.1 8.4 7.3 5.1 3.8 2-92 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.7 6.0 9.8 9.3 8.6 9.7 15.9 3-92 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.4 6.5 9.7 9.3 8.7 9.5 12.5 4-92 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.5 6.4 9.1 8.7 8.1 8.5 10.2 7.4 5.6 1-93 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.2 6.9 9.4 9.1 8.7 9.2 10.5 8.8 8.6 11.6 2-93 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.9 7.5 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.8 11.1 9.9 10.1 12.5 13.3 3-93 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 7.4 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.3 10.2 9.1 9.1 10.3 9.6 6.0 4-93 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.7 8.1 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.1 11.1 10.3 10.5 11.8 11.8 11.1 16.4 1-94 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.8 8.2 10.0 9.8 9.6 10.0 10.8 10.1 10.2 11.1 11.0 10.3 12.5 8.6 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 541.0 556.2 571.9 580.7 586.2 608.2 9.2 621.8 630.3 647.9 668.4 678.2 704.5 719.2 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 17 Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Initial Quarter Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 3-89 4.5 4-89 2.3 0.2 1-90 3.8 3.5 7.0 2-90 3.1 2.7 4.0 1.1 3-90 2.4 1.9 2.4 0.2 -0.6 4-90 2.9 2.6 3.3 2.1 2.6 5.8 1-91 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.2 2.6 4.3 2.8 2-91 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.1 1.4 3-91 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 0.7 -0.3 -2.0 4-91 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.7 -1.8 -3.4 -4.7 1-92 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 3.0 2-92 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 3-92 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 2.0 1.5 4-92 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 0.5 1.3 -1.4 1-93 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.9 -6.4 1-93 2-93 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 4-93 3-93 912.2 912.6 928.1 930.6 929.2 942.4 948.9 952.3 947.6 936.2 943.1 940.7 4.1 950.2 946.9 931.3 2-93 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -1.3 -1.2 4.3 3-93 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 -0.7 2.2 0.3 4-93 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 1-94 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 0.2 -1.1 -1.8 -3.6 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 941.1 941.7 941.7 933.1 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27, 1994 Corporate Profits (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 357.3 3-89 -12.9 4-89 -8.2 -3.1 1-90 4.6 14.7 35.7 2-90 10.7 19.9 33.3 3-90 -0.5 2.9 4.9 -7.7 -35.0 4-90 -1.3 1.2 2.3 -6.8 -21.4 -5.0 1-91 -0.1 2.2 3.3 -3.5 -12.8 1.0 7.4 2-91 0.1 2.1 3.0 -2.5 -9.4 1.2 4.5 3-91 -1.3 0.2 0.7 -4.2 -10.0 -2.3 -1.4 354.5 382.6 409.3 31.0 367.5 362.8 369.3 370.8 1.6 359.0 -5.5 -12.1 4-91 1.0 2.6 3.4 -0.6 -5.0 2.5 4.4 3.4 4.4 24.0 1-92 3.8 5.6 6.7 3.5 0.1 7.6 10.3 11.0 14.3 30.4 378.8 409.9 37.1 2-92 3.6 5.3 6.2 3.3 0.3 6.7 8.8 9.1 11.0 20.0 3-92 -0.2 0.9 1.3 -1.6 -4.7 0.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.7 2.4 4-92 5.0 6.6 7.4 5.2 2.9 8.3 10.1 10.5 12.0 17.6 16.0 9.7 1-93 4.2 5.6 6.3 4.1 2.0 6.7 8.1 8.2 9.1 13.2 11.1 5.4 6.7 38.2 -6.6 2-93 5.5 6.9 7.6 5.7 3.8 8.3 9.8 10.1 11.2 14.9 13.5 9.3 11.3 34.2 8.6 26.3 3-93 5.7 7.0 7.7 6.0 4.2 8.4 9.7 10.0 11.0 14.2 12.9 9.3 10.9 27.5 8.9 17.6 9.4 4-93 7.3 8.6 9.4 7.8 6.4 10.5 11.9 12.3 13.4 16.7 15.8 13.0 15.0 29.5 15.6 24.0 22.9 1-94 5.4 6.5 7.1 5.5 4.0 7.6 8.6 8.7 9.4 11.8 10.5 7.6 8.4 18.6 6.3 9.8 4.8 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 18.1 411.7 1.8 367.5 -4.0 -19.6 -36.5 439.5 14.0 104.6 432.1 458.1 468.5 38.1 507.9 2.5 -23.9 3-93 474.4 4-93 Corporate profits tfith capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27 1994 18 Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Private Saving (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 3-89 0.1 4-89 4.4 8.9 1-90 9.4 14.3 20.1 2-90 9.6 12.9 15.0 10.1 888.5 3-90 1.4 1.8 -0.5 -9.4 -25.5 825.5 4-90 4.2 5.1 4.2 -0.7 -5.6 19.5 1-91 7.4 8.7 8.7 6.0 4.7 24.0 28.8 2-91 7.4 8.5 8.4 6.2 5.2 18.1 17.4 3-91 5.1 5.7 5.3 3.0 1.6 9.8 6.8 4-91 6.9 7.7 7.6 5.9 5.2 12.7 11.1 5.7 5.1 1-92 6.9 7.6 7.5 6.0 5.4 11.7 10.2 5.9 5.6 15.4 6.6 2-92 6.8 7.4 7.3 5.9 5.4 10.8 9.4 5.9 5.6 12.1 6.1 5.7 3-92 7.2 7.8 7.7 6.6 6.2 11.0 9.8 6.9 6.9 12.1 8.1 8.9 811.2 828.6 867.4 863.1 919.4 7.0 935.0 -2.8 -11.6 906.6 25.0 958.7 974.1 987.7 12.2 1,016.5 4-92 5.2 5.6 5.4 4.1 3.5 7.4 6.0 3.1 2.4 5.5 1.1 -0.6 1-93 6.4 6.9 6.8 5.7 5.3 9.0 7.9 5.6 5.4 8.5 5.5 5.2 2-93 5.1 5.4 5.2 4.1 3.6 6.8 5.6 3.3 2.8 5.1 2.0 1.2 0.1 -3.7 3.9 -13.5 3-93 4.8 5.1 4.8 3.8 3.3 6.2 5.1 2.9 2.5 4.4 1.8 1.0 0.1 -2.7 2.7 -6.9 0.2 -3.7 -17.3 5.0 1.6 969.4 24.9 1,024.8 988.3 988.7 4-93 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.3 3.9 6.6 5.6 3.8 3.4 5.3 3.0 2.5 2.0 0.1 5.0 -0.9 6.0 12.2 1-94 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.3 3.9 6.4 5.4 3.7 3.4 5.0 3.0 2.6 2.1 0.6 4.6 0.0 5.0 7.5 2.9 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1,017.5 1,024.9 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 19 B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent f Hou rly Com pen sat on ' W ______ . A . ___________ / \ J — ^ V / 1_____ ___ _____ / > tt t \ Output Per Ho jr ____ v f -2 i 1 l 1 1 1988 1 1 1 1989 1 1 ... 1 1990 1 1 1 1991 1 1 1 ... i 1992 .... T 1993 1 I -2 1994 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector Output per Hour (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terninal Quarter Initial Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 3-89 -1.4 4-89 -0.7 0.0 1-90 0.1 0.9 1.8 2-90 0.9 1.7 2.6 3-90 0.5 o »H 1.3 1.1 -1.1 4-90 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 -1.1 -1.1 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1982 = 100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 109.7 109.7 110.2 3.3 111.1 110.8 110.5 1-91 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.2 0.2 1.5 2-91 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.5 110.9 3-91 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.7 4-91 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.6 1-92 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 4.2 4.7 2-92 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.6 2.5 3-92 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.4 4.2 4-92 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.8 1-93 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.0 -1.7 2-93 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.7 -0.9 111.6 111.8 112.8 114.1 114.8 116.0 117.1 116.6 116.6 0.0 3-93 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 1.7 3.5 4-93 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.1 3.4 5.2 7.0 1-94 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.7 3.8 0.7 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 117.6 119.6 119.8 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 5, 1994 20 N e t F e d e ra l D e b t (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 2-89 5.6 3-89 6.5 7.5 4-89 7.3 8.1 8.7 1-90 9.1 10.3 11.8 15.0 2-90 9.6 10.6 11.7 13.2 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 2-93 Billions of Dollars 3-93 2,380.4 10.9 11.8 12.8 11.7 11.9 11.3 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.6 1-91 10.3 11.5 11.3 11.6 11.5 10.5 11.8 12.5 12.6 12.3 13.9 16.1 12.0 11.7 12.0 11.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.6 12.5 12.9 9.7 12.3 12.5 10.7 11.7 12.5 12.6 11.5 12.4 13.0 2-91 10.5 11.6 12.2 11.5 11.1 11.6 12.1 11.6 3-91 11.0 11.7 4-91 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 11.9 12.0 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.1 12.1 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.1 11.8 11.8 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.4 3-92 1-93 2,316.3 11.5 10.0 4-92 4-92 2,236.9 10.5 2-92 3-92 2,190.8 3-90 1-92 2-92 2,151.7 4-90 10.9 1-92 11.0 11.5 12.2 11.9 12.7 12.3 12.3 2,448.3 2,527.5 9.1 11.3 2,583.4 2,656.6 2,757.6 2,822.2 2,901.1 13.2 2,992.5 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.5 11.4 9.6 11.0 11.3 11.2 10.3 10.4 10.0 8.5 7.4 3,061.7 10.7 10.6 9.7 9.7 9.2 7.9 7.1 6.9 11.0 10.9 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.2 9.1 10.0 13.2 3,116.5 1-93 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.3 2-93 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.6 11.2 11.1 11.1 10.8 3-93 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.2 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.3 8.0 8.3 9.0 4.9 4-93 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.3 8.9 8.2 7.9 8.1 8.5 6.2 7.5 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 3,168.6 3,268.6 3,308.0 3,368.7 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 FEDERAL G O VER NM EN T DEBT (b illio n s o f d o lla rs ) S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d E nd o f M o n th T o ta ls 1Federal debt held Gross federal debt 1988 March June September December 1989 March June September December 1990 March June September December 1991 March June September December 1992 March June September December 1993 March June September December 2487.7 2548.8 2613.8 2673.0 2738.8 2801.7 2869.3 2942.2 3048.3 3146.3 3246.4 3353.0 3460.5 3541.4 3680.1 3787.6 3876.1 3988.9 4081.1 4160.9 4226.4 4356.4 4429.2 4517.6 by agencies and trusts Net federal debt 499.0 528.4 552.2 584.4 617.4 650.6 679.0 701.9 734.2 766.9 799.0 820.6 880.5 886.3 923.9 958.5 978.8 998.6 1021.1 1036.4 1059.0 1090.0 1122.3 1139.8 1988.5 2021.2 2062.0 2086.6 2122.5 2151.7 2190.8 2236.9 2316.3 2380.4 2448.3 2527.5 2583.4 2656.6 2757.6 2822.2 2901.1 2992.5 3061.7 3116.5 3168.6 3268.6 3308.0 3368.7 Federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks 220.9 227.1 232.3 231.7 232.8 231.4 223.6 221.4 223.9 231.1 235.5 251.3 253.0 255.0 268.0 272.1 274.0 277.0 300.1 291.7 312.7 328.5 329.7 331.9 Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt held by foreign investors 1765.0 1796.5 1830.5 1855.1 1886.9 1919.9 1967.3 2013.2 331.0 343.3 348.5 363.1 375.1 367.3 398.5 429.2 2096.5 2153.8 2217.0 2286.0 2339.8 2411.3 2500.1 2560.4 2640.9 2727.5 2777.5 2836.6 2869.2 2953.2 2995.0 3044.7 420.5 426.0 443.9 456.6 463.8 472.7 480.7 488.8 508.4 529.1 538.4 546.4 566.6 567.6 595.9 619.6 Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors. 21 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Quarters Receipts___________ National Cyclically income accounts adjusted budget budget __________Expenditures_________ National Cyclically income accounts adjusted budget budget Surplus or d e fic it(-) National Cyclically income accounts adjusted budget budget 1986 1 2 3 4 809.4 814.2 828.2 856.8 816.4 832.2 852.1 875.5 992.7 1038.0 1047.9 1034.3 1001.4 1045.2 1032.4 1038.7 -183.3 -223.8 -219.7 -177.5 -185.0 -213.0 -180.3 -163.2 1987 1 2 3 4 858.4 928.6 924.5 943.5 875.1 938.1 927.2 930.0 1048.1 1058.9 1059.0 1096.3 1057.4 1060.4 1065.6 1103.0 -189.7 -130.3 -134.5 -152.7 -182.3 -122.3 -138.4 -173.0 1988 1 2 3 4 940.5 970.4 977.8 1000.6 924.9 949.5 953.0 971.4 1098.0 1105.0 1097.3 1135.5 1098.0 1111.4 1098.2 1156.1 -157.5 -134.6 -119.5 -134.9 -173.1 -161.9 -145.2 -184.7 1989 1 2 3 4 1050.9 1064.5 1053.6 1068.3 1014.3 1032.2 1020.2 1035.4 1160.8 1174.2 1181.5 1209.8 1181.0 1187.3 1182.0 1208.2 -110.0 -109.7 -128.0 -141.5 -166.7 -155.1 -161.8 -172.8 1990 1 2 3 4 1091.3 1114.5 1123.7 1115.8 1061.7 1093.4 1116.0 1132.1 1257.8 1266.5 1268.3 1306.9 1252.2 1275.4 1273.6 1311.2 -166.4 -152.0 -144.6 -191.0 -190.5 -182.0 -157.6 -179.1 1991 1 2 3 4 1115.8 1120.3 1132.6 1142.5 1160.1 1173.7 1257.9 1319.3 N.A. N.A. -145.2 - 206.2 -217.7 - 244.7 - 97.8 -145.6 N.A. N.A. 1261.0 1326.5 1350.2 1387.2 1992 1 2 3 4 1165.9 1176.1 1169.1 1221.1 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1436.1 1456.0 1459.8 1485.3 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -270.2 -279.9 - 290.7 - 264.2 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1993 1 2 3 4 1218.4 1268.0 1275.9 1315.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1481.9 1490.6 1488.5 1522.6 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. -263.5 -222.6 -212.7 - 207.0 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1994 1 1339.9 N.A. 1504.6 N.A. -164.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. — Not Available Fiscal years Actual 1987 1986 1988 Estimates 1993 1994 1995 $ 1153.2 1408.1 $ 1249.1 1483.8 $ 1353.8 $ - 221.2 $ -1 4 9 .8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .4 $ -2 5 4 .9 $ -2 3 4 .8 $ -1 6 5 .1 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total budget $ Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (- ) 769.1 990.3 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 1003.9 1064.1 $ 990.7 1143.2 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 1252.7 1323.8 1380.9 1518.9 Calendar years National income accounts budget $ Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit( -) 827.2 1028.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 1065.6 1109.0 $ 1059.3 1181.6 $ 1107.4 $ 1127.8 $ 1183.0 $ 1269.5 1273.6 1331.2 1459.3 1495.9 $ - 201.0 $ -1 5 1 .8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 0 3 .4 $ -2 7 6 .3 $ -2 2 6 .4 Cyclically adjusted budget $ Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit( - ) 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 1029.4 1071.6 1115.9 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8 1189.6 1278.1 $ - 185.4 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -1 6 4 .1 $ -1 7 7 .3 Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Estimates from O M B’s Fiscal 1995 Budget (February 7, 1994). Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce. 22 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis G overnm ent D e fic it(-)/S u r p lu s ( + ) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 0 0 -5 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 5 0 -1 5 0 -2 0 0 -2 5 0 -2 5 0 -3 0 0 -3 5 0 i -----1----- •" ■>---------- 1---------- r 1988 1989 1990 ">---------- 1---------- r 1991 - 1---------- 1---------- r 1992 ---------- 1---------- r -3 5 0 1994 1993 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Defense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 305.3 3-89 9.9 4-89 2.9 -3.6 1-90 6.3 4.5 13.3 2-90 4.8 3.2 6.7 0.5 302.5 312.1 312.5 309.1 3-90 2.9 1.2 2.9 -1.9 -4.3 4-90 5.4 4.5 6.6 4.5 6.5 18.5 322.5 1-91 6.2 5.6 7.6 6.2 8.1 14.9 11.5 2-91 4.6 3.9 5.2 3.6 4.4 7.5 2.4 -6.0 331.4 3-91 3.4 2.6 3.5 1.9 2.2 3.9 -0.5 -6.1 -6.1 4-91 1.7 0.9 1.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -3.5 -8.0 -9.0 -11.9 1-92 1.7 0.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 -2.5 -5.8 -5.7 -5.5 1.4 2-92 1.3 0.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -2.5 -5.1 -4.9 -4.5 -0.5 -2.4 326.3 321.2 311.2 312.3 310.4 3-92 1.9 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 -1.0 -3.0 -2.4 -1.4 2.4 2.8 8.4 4-92 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 -1.1 -2.7 -2.2 -1.4 1.4 1.5 3.4 1-93 0.6 0.0 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -2.5 -4.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -7.4 -13.1 2-93 0.8 0.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -1.9 -3.3 -2.9 -2.4 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 -3.8 -5.1 3.7 3-93 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -2.4 -3.7 -3.4 -3.1 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -4.7 -5.8 -1.9 -7.2 4-93 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -2.5 -3.6 -3.4 -3.1 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -4.4 -5.2 -2.4 -5.4 -3.5 1-94 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -2.9 -4.1 -3.9 -3.7 -2.7 -3.2 -3.3 -5.1 -5.9 -4.0 -6.4 -6.1 -8.5 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 316.7 -1.3 315.7 304.8 307.6 301.9 299.2 292.6 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 27, 1994 23 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label w ith su bscription inquiries or address changes. Federal Nondefense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Quarter 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Initial Quarter Annual Rates 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 2-91 Billions of Dollars 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 876.2 3-89 0.1 4-89 7.3 15.0 1-90 10.7 16.5 18.0 2-90 8.9 12.0 10.6 3.6 3-90 7.5 9.5 7.7 2.9 2.2 4-90 8.1 9.8 8.5 5.5 6.5 1-91 3.5 4.0 2.0 -1.7 -3.4 2-91 6.9 7.9 6.7 4.6 4.8 5.7 3.2 907.3 945.7 954.0 959.2 984.4 10.9 929.6 -6.1 -20.5 1,000.2 34.0 1,029.0 3-91 7.4 8.4 7.5 5.8 6.2 7.3 6.1 22.5 12.0 4-91 8.6 9.6 8.9 7.7 8.4 9.6 9.3 21.5 15.7 19.6 1-92 9.5 10.5 10.0 9.0 9.8 11.1 11.2 20.9 16.8 19.3 19.0 2-92 9.4 10.2 9.8 8.9 9.6 10.7 10.6 18.2 14.5 15.4 13.4 8.0 3-92 8.5 9.3 8.8 7.9 8.4 9.2 8.9 14.8 11.3 11.1 8.4 3.5 -0.9 4-92 8.6 9.3 8.8 8.0 8.5 9.2 9.0 14.0 11.0 10.8 8.7 5.5 4.2 9.6 1-93 8.2 8.8 8.3 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.3 12.5 9.8 9.4 7.4 4.7 3.7 6.0 2.6 2-93 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.1 7.4 7.9 7.6 11.3 8.8 8.3 6.5 4.2 3.3 4.7 2.3 2.0 3-93 7.4 7.9 7.4 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.0 10.3 7.9 7.4 5.8 3.7 2.9 3.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 4-93 7.7 8.2 7.8 7.1 7.4 7.8 7.5 10.5 8.4 8.0 6.6 5.0 4.5 5.6 4.6 5.3 6.9 13.0 1-94 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 6.6 9.2 7.2 6.8 5.4 3.9 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 4.3 -3.7 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1,076.0 1,123.8 1,145.6 1,143.1 1,169.6 1,177.1 1,183.0 1,186.6 1,223.4 1,212.0 First quarter data are preliminary estimates. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hay 27, 1994 24