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SEPTEMBER 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
Has Potential Economic
Growth Declined?
A recent forecast by the Office of Management and
Budget shows real gross domestic product (real GDP)
slowing until it reaches about a 2.5 percent rate in
1997 to 1999. These forecasts also show the unemploy­
ment rate unchanged at about 6.1 percent during the
same period. Blue Chip Economic Indicators shows
essentially this same result for 1995 to 2005. The
economy is usually said to be growing at its underlying
or potential economic growth rate when the unemploy­
ment rate remains unchanged. Thus, these forecasts
assume that the nation’s potential output growth rate
is about 2.5 percent. Results from a model of potential
GDP suggest, however, that the potential growth rate
might be lower.
Potential output growth estimates are often backward
looking, based on the trend of real GDP over a long
period. For example, real GDP grew at a 2.5 percent
rate in the 10 years ending in the second quarter of 1994.
In the absence of expected shifts in trends in capital
formation, labor force growth or other influences, such
an estimate is expected to be reliable for the future. But
potential growth can vary during a given period due to
such shifts in trends. For example, this author’s potential
GDP model estimates rapid growth from early 1982
to early 1986 (3.3 percent rate), followed by a sharp
slowing until the end of 1991 (1.9 percent rate), a
temporary surge in 1992 (3.9 percent rate) and a
subsequent slowing in 1993-94 (1.2 percent rate). Thus,
these estimates show volatile potential GDP and a
notable slowing in 1993-94. The recent slowing was
largely associated with an unusually large decline in

components of actual and potential real GDP that are
not cyclical (mainly output originating in the house­
hold sector, owner-occupied housing and especially
the government sector). Thus, productivity (overall
potential GDP per person or per hour) has been growing
more slowly than earlier.
The recent slowing can be illustrated using Okun’s
Law, which relates each percentage point reduction in
the unemployment rate to about a 2 percentage point
decline in the gap between the nation’s actual and
potential GDP. Using this rule, the decline in the
civilian unemployment rate from 7.9 percent in the
fourth quarter of 1992, measured on a comparable
basis, to 6.1 percent in the second quarter of this year,
indicates that the gap between potential and actual
GDP fell by about 3.6 percentage points during the
six quarters, or about 2.4 percentage points per year.
Thus, over the period, real GDP grew at an annual
rate about 2.4 percent faster than the potential output
growth rate. Since real GDP grew at a 3.3 percent
rate over the period, potential GDP rose at about a
0.9 percent rate during the period, slightly below this
author’s estimate.
This slowdown has important implications. For
example, if the recent pace persists, or even if economic
growth returns to its estimated post-1986 average rate
of 2 percent, the economy is likely to continue to slow
much more than the conventionally assumed 2.5 percent
pace. In the meantime, faster real GDP growth than
this, say 2.5 percent, will require further reductions in
the unemployment rate and increases in capacity utiliza­
tion rates. Efforts to achieve such a faster pace of
growth will also be associated with greater inflationary
pressures than would be expected with a faster pace of
potential output growth.
— John A. Tatom

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

1-93

2.6

2-93

3.4

4.3

142.7

3-93

3.1

3.4

2.5

4-93

3.4

3.7

3.4

4.3

5-93

3.2

3.4

3.1

3.4

2.5

6-93

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

8-93

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

11-93

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

3.3

3-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

1.6

5-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

2.5

6-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.9

3.3

7-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

3.3

3.7

4.1

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

4-94

5-94

6-94

143.2




143.5
144.0
144.3
144.4
144.6
145.0
145.1
145.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.6

146.0

2.3
2.5

146.3
146.3
146.7
147.2

2.7

3.2

3.1

2.9

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

2.9

2.8

2.7

147.4
147.7
148.1
148.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1994

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1-93

1.7
2.0

3.1

2.2

2.9

2.6

3.3

4.2

4.4

5.3

2.2

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

5-94

6-94

0.0

8-93

4-94

-3.3

7-93

3-94

8.0

6-93

2-94

2.6

5-93

1-94

2.6

4-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

3.5

3-93

8-93

0.0

2-93

7-93

139.2
139.6
139.9
140.2
141.1
140.7
140.7
141.2

4.3

9-93

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

141.6

4.3

2.6

142.3

11-93

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

12-93

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

142.6
143.3
-1.7

143.1

1-94

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

2-94

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

1.7

142.7
142.9

3-94

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

4-94

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

5-94

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

1.7

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

0.3

0.8

2.3

2.5

4.3

6-94

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.8

1.3

2.5

2.8

3.8

3.4

7-94

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.6

2.1

3.2

3.6

4.6

4.7

6.0

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

143.0
143.5
143.9
144.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982-84=100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

1-93

-2.3

2-93

-2.8

-3.4

3-93

1.2

2.9

9.6

4-93

1.2

2.3

5.3

1.2

5-93

-0.5

0.0

1.2

-2.8

6-93

-1.3

-1.1

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

-5.6

7-93

-1.1

-1.0

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-2.0

-2.0

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

9-93

-2.3

-2.3

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

0.1

0.4

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

-9.9

12-93

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-2.0

-2.0

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

3-94

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4.7

4-94

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

5-94

-1.2

-1.1

-0.9

-1.6

-1.9

-1.4

-1.1

-1.2

-0.4

0.1

-2.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.8

-3.8

-7.8 -11.0

6-94

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-1.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.9

-0.9

-0.2

0.3

-2.4

-1.3

-0.2

1.7

-2.6

-4.9

-5.1

1.2

7-94

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.0

1.8

2.5

0.3

1.6

3.0

5.2

2.3

1.7

3.9

12.3

24.6

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

104.2
103.9




104.7
104.8
-6.7

104.2
103.7
103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5
103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7
104.1
-4.5

103.7
102.7
102.8
104.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1994

3

Producer P rice Index - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

1-93

4.4
3.9

3.9

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1982 = 100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

4.9

3-93

4-93

3.9

2-93

3-93

2.9

124.3
124.8
125.1

4-93

4.4

4.6

4.4

5.9

5-93

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

1.7

1.3

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

-9.2

9-93

0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

-1.0

11-93

0.4

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

1.0

12-93

0.2

-0.1

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.2

-1.3

-0.7

-0.8

1.0

0.7

1.3

1.5

3.9

125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1
124.1
124.3
124.2
124.3
124.2
124.6

2-94

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

4.9

3-94

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

0.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.4

3.6

3.4

1.9

4-94

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.3

1.0

0.0

5-94

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.9

1.5

0.3

-0.5

-1.0

6-94

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.0

7-94

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.6

2.9

5.9

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94




125.1
125.3
125.3
125.2
125.2
125.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 11, 1994

4

Civilian E m ploym ent and U n em p loym en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons
126

119

I—

1988

1989

,

r - T ^ 1

1990

I

r

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94
118,178

1-93

0.2

2-93

1.5

2.7

3-93

1.4

2.0

1.2

4-93

1.1

1.4

0.7

0.2

5-93

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

1.9

8-93

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

4.0

12-93

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

3.7

3.3

1-94

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

13.8

2-94

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

3-94

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.3

-2.1

4-94

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

3.0

5-94

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.5

2.2

2.0

4.2

5.4

6-94

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

0.9

0.4

1.3

0.5

-4.2

7-94

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

0.8

0.4

1.0

0.4

-2.0

0.2

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

118,442
118,562
118,585
119,180
119,187
119,370

\

119,692
119,568

V

119,941
120,332

o




120,661
121,971
122,258
122,037
122,338
122,872
122,430
122,452

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1994

P ayroll E m p loym en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

65

-----1-----r — |-----1-----1-----1---------- 1-----1"""“ "“!-----— i----- 1-----r

~i

1988

1989

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1-93

3.2
1.9

1.7

2.3

2.2

1.3

2.2

2.2

1.6

2.7

2.0

1.9

1.4

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.9

5-94

6-94

2.8

8-93

4-94

1.0

7-93

3-94

2.1

6-93

2-94

3.2

5-93

Thousands of
Persons
1-94

-0.6

4-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

4.1

3-93

8-93

2.3

2-93

7-93

109,490
109,856
109,804
110,096
110,285
110,372
110,628
0.9

110,714

9-93

2.0

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

10-93

2.0

2.0

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.1

11-93

2.1

2.1

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.8

12-93

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.7

1-94

2.1

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.9

110,923
111,112
111,366
111,610
1.1

111,711

2-94

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

2.3

3-94

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.2

4.1

4-94

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.6

4.3

111,919
112,298
4.4

112,699

5-94

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.5

2.7

6-94

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.8

7-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.4

3.1

3.3

2.8

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94




112,951
113,307
113,566

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

Thousands of
Persons
86,255

1-93

2.5

2-93

3.2

3.9

3-93

2.2

2.0

0.1

4-93

2.7

2.7

2.1

4.2

5-93

2.6

2.6

2.2

3.3

2.4

6-93

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.8

2.2

2.0

7-93

2.6

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.6

2.7

3.5

8-93

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.5

1.5

9-93

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.9

10-93

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.5

11-93

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

12-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.1

1-94

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.0

2-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.9

86,532
86,541
86,835
87,004
87,147
87,396
87,507
87,717
2.1

87,867
88,085
88,312
88,383
88,592

3-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.6

4.3

4-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

4.1

4.0

88,903
89,193

5-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

6-94

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.8

4.3

89,432

7-94

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.6

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.1

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

89,743
89,974

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 199<t

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

Initial Month
Persons
9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

8-93

Thousands of
1-94

2-94

3-94

1-93

1.6

2-93

3.1

4.7

3-93

1.0

0.7

-3.1

4-93

0.7

0.4

-1.6

0.8

0.6

-0.7

0.5

1.0

6-93

0.2

-0.1

-1.3

-0.7

-0.9

-2.8

7-93

0.2

0.0

-0.9

-0.4

-0.5

-1.3

0.4

8-93

0.0

-0.2

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-0.5

-1.3

9-93

0.0

-0.2

-0.9

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

10-93

0.2

0.1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.2

1.0

0.4

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.3

2.0

1.9

12-93

0.4

0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.6

1.4

0.9

1-94

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.6

2-94

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.7

-0.1

3-94

0.7

0.6

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

3.6

4-94

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.1

4.7

6-94

2.0

11-93

5-94

-0.1

5-93

4-94

5.8

23,235
23,324
23,263
23,261
23,281
23,225
23,232
23,207
23,206
23,245
23,281
23,298
23,328
23,327
23,395
23,506

5-94

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

3.3

3.2

0.7

6-94

1.0

1.0

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

3.1

2.9

1.5

2.3

7-94

1.1

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.5

1.5

1.9

1.4

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94




23,519
23,564
23,592

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1994

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

8

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

June 1989 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
102.4

4-89

4.8

1-90

5.2

5.6

103.8

2-90

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

105.1

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
4.1

110.8

4-91

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

1-92

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

111.9
112.9

2-92

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3-93

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

4-93

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9
3.4

118.9
119.9

1-94

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

2-94

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.7

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

120.7
121.8

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 26, 1994

8

I n d u s t r ia l P r o d u c t io n
Seasonally Adjusted

1987“ 100

1988

1989

1990

1987=100

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

1987 = 100

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94
109.2

1-93

2.2

2-93

5.1

8.0

3-93

3.7

4.5

1.1

4-93

4.2

4.8

3.3

5.6

5-93

2.2

2.2

0.4

0.0

-5.3

6-93

2.6

2.7

1.4

1.5

-0.5

4.5

7-93

3.0

3.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

5.6

8-93

2.9

3.0

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

2.2

9-93

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

3.2

3.3

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

6.7

11-93

3.8

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

4.6

4.8

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

1-94

4.7

4.9

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

4.7

4.9

4.6

5.0

4.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

7.1

8.2

8.5

8.0

5.4

4.3

3-94

5.0

5.2

5.0

5.4

5.3

6.5

6.7

6.8

7.5

8.4

8.8

8.5

6.8

7.0

9.8

4-94

4.8

5.0

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.3

7.5

6.9

5.4

5.0

5.3

1.0

5-94

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.9

4.8

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.3

6.8

6.8

6.3

4.9

4.5

4.6

2.1

3.1

6-94

4.8

4.9

4.7

5.0

4.9

5.8

5.9

5.9

6.3

6.8

6.8

6.3

5.2

4.9

5.0

3.5

4.7

6.4

7-94

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.9

4.8

5.6

5.7

5.7

6.0

6.4

6.4

5.9

4.9

4.6

4.7

3.4

4.2

4.7

3.1

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

109.9




110.0
110.5
110.0
110.4
110.9
111.1
111.3
111.9
112.8
114.0
114.6
115.0
115.9
116.0
116.3
116.9
117.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 15, 1994

9

P erson al Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

“i

|

i

i

1988

|

i

i

1989

|---- 1 ----- 1
---1990

|

i

Trillions of Dollars

---- 1 1 1 ----- 1 1 1 -----r
---- ---- ------- ---- ----

1991

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth
12-92

Initial Honth
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

1-93

-26.3
-16.9

3.0

-10.6

5.5

8.3

10.9

5-93

-8.4

4.4

5.9

5.9

-7.6

2.8

3.5

2.8

-1.1

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
6-94

1.2

6-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

5.8

4-93

8-93

0.2

3-93

7-93

-45.8

2-93

6-93

3,652.7

-3.3

3,653.2
3,670.5
3,702.3
3,705.9
3,695.7

7-93

-7.0

1.7

2.1

1.1

-1.9

-3.4

-3.6

8-93

-4.7

3.3

3.8

3.4

1.6

1.8

4.4

13.0

9-93

-4.3

2.7

3.1

2.6

1.0

1.0

2.5

5.6

-1.2

10-93

-3.5

2.9

3.2

2.8

1.6

1.6

2.9

5.1

1.4

4.1

11-93

-2.8

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.0

2.1

3.2

5.0

2.5

4.4

4.6

12-93

-2.0

3.4

3.8

3.5

2.7

2.9

3.9

5.5

3.7

5.4

6.0

7.5

1-94

-2.5

2.4

2.6

2.3

1.4

1.4

2.1

3.1

1.2

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-8.1

3,684.5
3,722.2
3,718.4
3,730.9
3,745.0
3,767.6
3,741.1

2-94

-1.1

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.0

3.2

4.0

5.1

3.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

4.2

18.1

3-94

-0.9

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.9

4.9

3.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

3.8

10.4

3.1

4-94

-1.1

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.7

2.6

3.2

3.0

2.7

1.6

5.0

-1.0

-4.9

3,793.3
3,803.1
3,787.1

5-94

-0.5

3.3

3.5

3.4

2.8

3.0

3.5

4.3

3.4

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.1

6.1

2.4

2.0

9.4

6-94

-0.6

3.0

3.2

3.1

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.8

2.9

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.3

4.6

1.4

0.9

3.9

-1.3

7-94

-0.4

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.5

2.6

3.0

3.6

2.8

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.3

4.1

1.5

1.1

3.2

0.3

1.9

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94




10

3,815.6
3,811.4
3,817.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 29, 1994

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

200

200

----- --------- ----- --------7----- 1 1 ------1 1 1 ------1 f

1988

1989

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

Millions of
Dollars

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94
118,801

1-93

1.3

2-93

-3.9

3-93

-6.9 -10.7 -12.6

4-93

-0.6

-1.3

2.7

20.7

5-93

1.1

1.0

4.5

14.3

8.3

6-93

1.1

1.1

3.7

9.7

4.6

1.1

7-93

1.7

1.7

3.9

8.5

4.8

3.1

5.1

8-93

2.0

2.1

4.0

7.7

4.6

3.4

4.6

4.2

9-93

1.7

1.8

3.4

6.3

3.7

2.5

3.0

2.0

-0.1

10-93

3.5

3.8

5.5

8.3

6.4

6.0

7.3

8.1

10.0

21.3

11-93

3.6

3.9

5.4

7.8

6.1

5.8

6.7

7.2

8.1

12.5

4.5

12-93

4.2

4.5

5.9

8.2

6.7

6.5

7.4

7.9

8.9

12.0

7.7

117,898

-8.7

116,581
118,424
119,213
119,321
119,813
120,226
120,212
122,158
122,604
11.0

123,679

1-94

2.7

2.8

3.9

5.7

4.2

3.7

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.8

-0.2

2-94

3.9

4.1

5.2

7.0

5.7

5.4

6.0

6.1

6.4

7.8

4.7

4.7

1.7

20.7

-2.4 -14.2

122,107
124,034

3-94

4.8

5.1

6.2

8.0

6.9

6.8

7.4

7.7

8.2

9.7

7.5

8.2

7.3

20.1

4-94

3.6

3.8

4.7

6.2

5.1

4.8

5.2

5.2

5.3

6.1

3.8

3.6

1.9

7.9

2.0 -12.9

5-94

3.2

3.4

4.2

5.6

4.5

4.2

4.4

4.4

4.4

5.0

2.8

2.6

0.9

5.1

0.4

6-94

3.4

3.6

4.4

5.6

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.6

4.6

5.2

3.3

3.1

1.9

5.4

1.9

-3.3

1.9

6.6

7-94

3.0

3.1

3.8

4.9

4.0

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.7

4.1

2.4

2.1

0.9

3.7

0.6

-3.6

-0.3

0.8

-4.7

12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

6-94

19.5

125,885

-7.9

124,443
-2.6

124,167
124,833
124,336

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U t1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 11, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

t ---

1988

1989

1

i
---

1990

i
--- 1
—

r

1991

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-92 12-92

Millions of
Dollars

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94
841,831

12-92

1.7

1-93

3.0

4.3

2-93

3.0

3.7

3.1

3-93

3.8

4.5

4.6

6.1

4-93

3.8

4.3

4.3

4.9

3.7

5-93

3.5

3.9

3.8

4.0

3.0

2.3

6-93

3.2

3.5

3.3

3.4

2.5

1.8

844,777
846,950
851,123
853,729
855,316
1.4

856,313
857,008

7-93

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.1

1.5

1.2

1.0

8-93

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.8

9-93

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.7

858,979
2.7

860,885

10-93

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.2

1.7

11-93

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.4

3.7

4.1

6.6

12-93

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

-1.6

1-94

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.0

3.9

5.7

3-94

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

2.0

2.0

4-94

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.7

7.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.3

5.5

6.4

6.6

11.0

14.9

4.3

4.6

4.4

5.4

6.1

6.2

8.9

9.7

4.8

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

5-94

5-94

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

6-94

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




862,110
866,720
865,584
867,065
871,110
-1.7

869,873
874,989
885,185
888,627

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

4-89

2.5
2.2

2.5

1.4

1.4

0.3

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

0.0

-0.2

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

0.4

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

1-94

-2.1

2-91

4-93

-3.2

1-91

3-93

-0.9

4-90

2-93

1.5

3-90

1-93

3.5

2-90

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1.5

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

1-92

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.4

1.6

2-92

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.9

3.1
2.8

2.4

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

3.5

4-92

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.4

2-93

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

1.8

2.4

3-93

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.6

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.5

2.7

4-93

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

6.3

1-94

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.8

3.3

2-94

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.5

3.6

3.8

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3

1.2

5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,310.2

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1987 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
110.1

4-89

3.7

1-90

4.4

5.2

2-90

4.4

4.8

111.5
112.7

4.4

3-90

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

113.8

1-91

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

115.0
116.4
117.2

2.8

3-91

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.8

2.8

4-91

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

2 7

2.7

1-92

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.8

2-^2

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

2.7

3-92

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

4-92

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

2.7

1-93

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.4

3.0

3.3

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.6

118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
121.1
121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7

3-93

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.3

1.0

4-93

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.3

1-94

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.9

2-94

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.9

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

124.1
125.0
125.9

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-89

2.9
1.8

2.4

1.5

1.8

0.1

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

0.5

4-90

3-91

-0.4

3-90

2-91

5.2

2-90

1-91

0.7

1-90

4-90

-0.6

4,831.8
4,893.6
4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0

1-91

0.5

0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-1.5

-2.4

2-91

0.7

0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

1.8

3-91

0.5

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

-0.8

4-91

0.4

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

1-92

0.8

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.2

2.3

4.8

2-92

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.3

2.0

3.1

1.5

3-92

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.7

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.5

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.5

4.5

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.5

3.1

2.7

3.1

2.9

0.2

2-93

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.3

4,858.4
4,879.8
4,869.5
4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
2.4

5,086.5

3-93

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.9

2.8

3.2

4-93

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.0

4.0

4.8

6.4

1-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.3

2.2

2-94

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.0

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.3

1.8

1.4

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

5,126.5
5,207.2
5,235.7
5,253.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

4-89

1.8
1.5

1.8

1.6

1.9

1.5

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

1-91

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.7

0.4

0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-0.4

2.1

3-91

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

-0.6

0.2

1.7

1.3

4-91

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

0.9

0.4

-0.5

1-92

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

5.8

2-92

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

3.7

1.7

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.8

2.8

3.9

4-92

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.8

2.9

3.3

4.2

3.7

4.7

1-94

-2.8

2-91

4-93

2.1

4-90

3-93

0.9

3-90

2-93

2.8

2-90

1-93

0.8

1-90

Billions of Dollars
4-92

3,242.0
3,264.4
3,271.6
3,288.4
-2.7

3,265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
5.6

3,403.4

1-93

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.7

3.6

1.6

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

2.1

2.6

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.4

2.7

3.2

4-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.9

4.0

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.7

2-94

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.0

1.4

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

3,417.2
3,439.2
3.9

3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,558.6

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

0.4

2-90

-6.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

-5.9

1-90

4-89

208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

3-90

-10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-15.4 -17.2 -22.4 -23.7 -24.5 -24.8

2-91

-13.1 -14.3 -18.0 -17.9 -16.5 -12.3

2.2

3-91

-10.0 -10.5 -13.2 -12.1

4-91

-7.4

164.2
165.1

-9.4

-3.8

8.7

15.6

171.2

-7.6

-9.6

-8.0

-4.9

0.7

10.9

15.6

15.6

-4.2

-0.8

4.7

13.7

17.8

18.9

22.4

177.5

1-92

-4.8

-4.7

-6.1

2-92

-2.6

-2.2

-3.2

-1.2

2.2

7.5

15.4

19.0

20.2

22.6

22.7

3-92

-2.3

-2.0

-2.8

-1.0

2.1

6.5

12.9

15.1

15.0

14.8

11.2

0.8

4-92

-0.5

0.0

-0.7

1.3

4.3

8.5

14.4

16.5

16.7

17.0

15.3

11.7

23.8

1-93

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.6

4.4

8.2

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.6

12.7

9.5

14.2

5.3

2-93

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.7

11.8

11.2

10.5

8.3

5.0

6.4

-1.3

186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
-7.6

206.3

3-93

0.0

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.7

6.8

10.b

11.5

11.0

10.4

8.5

5.9

7.2

2.1

0.6

9.4

4-93

1.4

1.9

1.6

3.2

5.4

8.4

12.0

13.1

12.8

12.5

11.1

9.3

11.1

8.1

9.0

18.4

28.2

1-94

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.6

5.8

8.5

11.9

12.8

12.5

12.2

11.0

9.4

10.9

8.5

9.3

15.5

18.7

10.0

2-94

2.2

2.7

2.4

3.8

5.9

8.4

11.5

12.3

12.0

11.7

10.6

9.1

10.4

8.3

8.9

13.4

14.8

8.6

7.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

211.0
224.5
229.9
234.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St- Louis
August 26, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4-89

-3.7

1-90

3.1

10.4

536.7

2-90

0.7

2.9

3-90

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

-7.7

540.2

1-91

-2.4

-2.2

-5.1

-5.4 -10.2 -12.7

522.2

550.2
-4.1

544.5
551.2

2-91

-2.5

-2.3

-4.7

-4.8

-7.9

-7.9

-3.0

3-91

-2.6

-2.4

-4.4

-4.4

-6.7

-6.3

-3.0

-3.0

518.3

4-91

-2.9

-2.8

-4.6

-4.7

-6.5

-6.2

-3.9

-4.4

-5.7

1-92

-2.6

-2.5

-4.0

-4.0

-5.4

-5.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-0.1

514.4
506.9
506.8

2-92

-1.2

-0.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.8

-1.9

0.4

1.3

2.7

7.2

15.0

3-92

-0.7

-0.4

-1.4

-1.1

-1.8

-1.0

1.1

2.0

3.3

6.4

9.9

5.0

4-92

-0.1

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.8

0.1

2.0

2.9

4.1

6.7

9.1

6.2

7.5

1-93

1.0

1.3

0.6

1.0

0.7

1.6

3.6

4.6

5.9

8.3

10.6

9.1

11.3

15.1

2-93

1.9

2.3

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.0

4.9

5.9

7.2

9.5

11.6

10.7

12.7

15.4

524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0

15.6

3-93

2.5

2.9

2.4

2.9

2.7

3.8

5.6

6.6

7.8

9.9

11.7

11.0

12.6

14.3

13.9

12.2

4-93

3.5

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.1

5.1

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

13.0

12.6

14.2

16.0

16.2

16.5

21.1

597.9

1-94

3.9

4.4

4.0

4.6

4.5

5.5

7.2

8.2

9.4

11.2

12.7

12.4

13.7

14.9

14.9

14.6

15.9

10.9

2-94

4.2

4.6

4.3

4.8

4.8

5.8

7.4

8.3

9.4

11.0

12.3

12.0

13.0

13.9

13.7

13.2

13.6

10.0

9.2

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

627.2
643.6
657.9

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-89

12.6
10.9

9.8

7.5

5.8

2.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

6.4

5.1

3.4

2.1

4.1

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

9.6

1-91

4-91

-1.9

4-90

3-91

7.6

3-90

2-91

12.1

2-90

1-91

13.1

1-90

4-90

487.7
501.8
511.1
508.6
520.4
-1.1

519.0

2-91

8.3

7.6

6.7

6.4

9.4

9.3

20.7

3-91

7.3

6.5

5.6

5.2

7.1

6.3

10.2

0.6

4-91

8.0

7.4

6.8

6.6

8.4

8.1

11.4

7.0

13.7

544.0
544.8
562.6

1-92

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

10.0

6.7

9.8

6.1

2-92

7.2

6.7

6.1

5.9

7.1

6.6

8.3

5.3

7.0

3.8

1.5

3-92

7.1

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.8

6.4

7.8

5.3

6.6

4.3

3.4

571.0
573.1
5.3

580.5

4-92

7.1

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.9

6.5

7.7

5.6

6.7

5.0

4.6

6.2

7.2

1-93

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.7

6.5

4.7

5.4

3.8

3.2

3.8

3.0

-1.0

2-93

6.6

6.1

5.7

5.5

6.2

5.9

6.7

5.0

5.7

4.4

4.1

4.7

4.6

3.2

7.7

3-93

5.9

5.5

5.0

4.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

4.1

4.5

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.5

1.0

2.1

-3.2

4-93

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.9

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.7

6.3

5.4

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.8

8.2

8.5

21.7

1-94

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.5

6.1

4.8

5.3

4.4

4.2

4.6

4.4

3.9

5.2

4.3

8.3

-3.5

2-94

6.7

6.3

6.0

5.9

6.4

6.2

6.8

5.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.9

6.0

5.8

7.2

7.1

10.8

5.7

15.8

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
642.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89
4-89

4.4

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
555.0

3.3

1-90

4-89

5.6

562.6

2-90

4.8

5.5

5.4

3-90

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

570.0

4-90

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

-1.3

-2.3

-4.1

-7.1 -10.7 -12.2

2-91

0.8

0.3

-0.7

-2.1

570.7
557.2

-9.1

539.4

-3.0

0.2

14.4

557.8

3-91

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

12.4

10.4

4-91

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

4.0

10.0

7.9

5.4

1-92

2.7

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

4.5

9.2

7.5

6.0

6.6

2-92

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

5.9

9.9

8.8

8.3

9.8

13.0

571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1

3-92

4.0

4.1

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.2

9.7

8.7

8.3

9.3

10.7

8.4

4-92

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.4

6.3

9.2

8.4

8.0

8.6

9.3

7.4

619.4
6.5

629.3

1-93

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

5.1

6.9

9.5

8.8

8.6

9.2

9.9

8.8

9.0

11.6

2-93

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.0

7.6

10.1

9.6

9.4

10.1

10.8

10.3

10.9

13.2

14.9

3-93

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.1

7.6

9.8

9.3

9.2

9.7

10.2

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.1

7.4

4-93

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.3

10.4

10.0

9.9

10.5

11.1

10.7

11.2

12.4

12.7

11.6

16.0

1-94

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

7.0

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.9

10.4

10.9

10.6

10.9

11.8

11.9

10.9

12.7

9.5

2-94

6.9

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.8

9.1

10.9

10.6

10.7

11.2

11.7

11.6

12.0

13.0

13.2

12.8

14.7

14.1

18.9

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-89

3.5
2.7

4.0

1.9

2.4

0.2

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

2.7

3.2

2.3

2.7

4.4

3.0

2-91

2.4

2.8

1.9

2.1

3.1

1.7

0.5

3-91

1.6

1.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

-0.2

-1.7

-3.9

4-91

1.1

1.2

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.8

-2.1

-3.4

-2.9

1-92

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.4

-1.2

-1.8

-0.7

1.5

2-92

0.7

0.8

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.8

-1.6

-2.1

-1.5

-0.8

-3.0

3-92

1.0

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.6

0.1

3.4

4-92

0.9

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.7

-0.1

0.7

0.4

2.1

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

5.8

1-91

3-93

-0.6

4-90

2-93

1.1

3-90

1-93

7.0

2-90

4-92

0.2

1-90

3-92

912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
0.9

940.6

1-93

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.2

r
H
0
1

-0.8

-1.2

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-1.2

-0.6

-2.5

-5.9

2-93

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.2

-1.3

-2.4

1.2

3-93

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

-1.2

1.1

1.1

4-93

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.6

-1.0

0.7

0.5

-0.1

1-94

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-1.1

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.8

-0.7

-1.3

-2.5

-4.9

2-94

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-1.0

-0.8

-1.4

-1.7

-0.9

-1.4

-2.2

-3.2

-1.6

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
916.3

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

4-89

14.7

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

35.7

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

4-93

-3.1

1-90

1-90

354.5
382.6
409.3

2-90

19.9

33.3

3-90

2.9

4.9

31.0
-7.7 -35.0

4-90

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

1-91

5.2

6.9

0.7

-7.7

10.0

27.3

2-91

5.4

6.8

1.9

-4.3

8.8

16.4

6.5

3-91

4.4

5.5

1.2

-3.9

6.0

10.0

2.2

-1.9

4-91

4.5

5.5

1.8

-2.4

5.9

8.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

1-92

5.9

6.9

3.8

0.4

7.9

10.7

6.9

7.1

11.9

18.8

2-92

5.4

6.3

3.4

0.4

6.8

9.0

5.6

5.4

7.9

9.3

3-92

0.5

0.9

-2.1

-5.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.9

-5.8

4-92

6.1

6.9

4.6

2.2

7.5

9.2

6.8

6.9

1-93

6.3

7.1

5.0

2.9

7.7

9.2

7.2

7.2

8.9

9.6

7.4

9.8

48.4

9.6

2-93

7.8

8.6

6.8

4.9

9.6

11.2

9.5

9.9

11.7

12.8

11.7

14.7

42.3

19.7

30.7

3-93

8.4

9.2

7.5

5.9

10.3

11.8

10.4

10.8

12.5

13.6

12.8

15.4

35.9

19.2

24.4

18.4

4-93

9.9

10.8

9.3

7.9

12.2

13.7

12.6

13.2

15.0

16.3

15.9

18.7

36.1

23.4

28.4

27.4

1-94

8.1

8.8

7.4

5.9

9.7

10.9

9.7

10.0

11.2

11.9

11.0

12.6

25.1

13.8

14.8

10.0

2-94

9.4

10.1

8.8

7.5

11.2

12.5

11.4

11.8

13.2

14.0

13.4

15.2

26.4

17.0

18.5

15.7

14.8

5.1

34.5

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

367.5
362.8

-5.0

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7
412.1
412.6

0.5

363.2

-6.8 -10.5 -22.3 -40.0
8.7

9.6

6.7

432.5

9.9 101.1

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

37.0

508.2

6.0 -17.9

547.3

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
828.6

4-89

8.9

1-90

14.3

20.1

867.4

2-90

12.9

15.0

10.1

3-90

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

888.5

4-90

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

825.5
19.5

863.1

1-91

9.8

10.0

7.6

6.8

27.8

36.7

2-91

8.6

8.6

6.4

5.5

18.5

17.9

1.8

3-91

6.4

6.0

3.8

2.6

11.2

8.6

-3.3

-8.0

4-91

7.8

7.7

6.0

5.3

12.9

11.3

3.9

5.1

1-92

7.8

7.7

6.2

5.7

12.0

10.6

4.9

6.0

13.8

7.9

2-92

7.2

7.0

5.6

5.1

10.4

8.9

4.1

4.7

9.3

4.3

0.9

3-92

7.4

7.3

6.1

5.6

10.4

9.1

5.1

5.8

9.5

6.2

5.4

4-92

5.2

4.9

3.7

3.0

6.8

5.3

1.5

1.4

3.4

-0.3

-2.9

1-93

6.8

6.7

5.6

5.2

8.9

7.8

4.6

5.1

7.4

5.1

4.4

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

20.0

979.1
981.2
10.2

1,005.3

-4.8 -17.7
5.6

3.3

957.5
29.8

1,022.0

2-93

5.4

5.1

4.0

3.6

6.7

5.5

2.5

2.6

4.2

1.8

0.6

0.6

-2.5

6.2 -13.2

3-93

5.1

4.9

3.8

3.4

6.2

5.1

2.4

2.5

3.8

1.7

0.7

0.7

-1.5

4.5

-6.2

1.3

4-93

5.3

5.1

4.2

3.8

6.4

5.4

3.0

3.1

4.4

2.6

1.9

2.0

0.5

5.6

-1.4

5.1

9.0

986.6
989.9
1,011.4

1-94

5.6

5.4

4.6

4.2

6.7

5.8

3.6

3.8

5.0

3.5

2.9

3.2

2.1

6.6

1.5

6.9

9.8

10.6

2-94

5.2

5.0

4.2

3.9

6.2

5.3

3.2

3.3

4.4

3.0

2.4

2.6

1.6

5.2

0.9

4.8

5.9

4.5

-1.4

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1,037.3
1,033.7

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

19

B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Hou iy Compensât on f

✓
/
f

. A _________

k
A

7
/

/

—^
✓
_ / ................
f

>

/

✓

Output Per Ho j r "* ^ *

/
1
Sk

\

%

/

-2 T

1 T

1

'

1988

1

1

r

1989

r"'"T I .. 1
....

1

1990

1

1

r ..1
..

1991

1

i 11 '
1992

!

1

I- " 1

1993

1 '
....

'

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1982 = 100
2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4-89

0.9
1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

1.0

1.2

1.1

0.4

1.1

3.3

2-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.8

1.4

2.7

2.2

3-91

1.2

1.4

1.3

0.9

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.4

4-91

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.6

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.2

1-92

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.8

5.4

2-92

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.2

1.1

3-92

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.5

3.9

4-92

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.1

3.4

2.7

3.5

3.1

1-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.6

1.7

0.7

-1.7

2-93

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.4

1.5

0.7

-0.5

0.7

3-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.7

1.8

1.3

0.7

1.9

1-94

1.8

2-90

4-93

0.0

1-90

3-93

3.1

109.7
110.2
111.1
110.8
110.5
111.4
112.0
112.4
113.0
114.5
114.8
115.9
116.8
116.3
116.5
117.4

4-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

3.2

4.5

5.9

1-94

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.3

2.7

2-94

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.5

2.2

2.6

2.4

0.7

-1.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

119.1
119.9
119.5

Revised from 1989




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 9, 1994

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-89

8.1
10.4

12.1

10.6

11.8

13.2

3-90

10.8

11.7

12.6

11.3

12.2

13.0

12.3

12.8

4-91

Billions of
Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

11.5

11.3

3-91

11.2

4-90

2-91

15.2

2-90

1-91

9.1

1-90

4-90

7.1

4-89

3-90

2,189.3
2,237.4
2,317.9
2,380.1
2,445.8
14.2

2,528.1
2,586.5

1-91

11.1

11.8

12.3

11.6

11.7

11.8

9.6

2-91

11.1

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.6

11.6

10.3

11.1

2,655.5
2,754.2

3-91

11.6

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.1

13.4

15.7

4-91

11.5

12.0

12.3

11.9

12.0

12.1

11.6

12.4

13.0

10.3

1-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.4

12.8

11.4

12.4

2-92

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.0

12.1

12.2

11.8

12.3

12.6

11.6

12.2

12.1

3-92

11.4

11.8

12.0

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.5

11.8

11.9

11.0

11.2

10.7

9.3

4-92

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.4

11.0

11.2

11.3

10.4

10.4

9.8

8.6

8.0

1-93

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.1

11.1

11.0

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.0

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.0

8.1

2-93

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.2

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.3

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.3

10.0

11.9

3-93

10.6

10.8

11.0

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.2

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

4.5

4-93

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.4

9.2

8.8

8.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

6.2

8.0

1-94

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.7

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.7

6.4

7.3

6.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

2,822.6
2,906.5
2,990.4
3,057.5
3,116.6
3,178.1
3,268.6
3,304.7
3,368.7
3,423.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

• Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt I
by foreign
investors

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

1993 March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

563.8
568.8
596.5
620.4

1994 March

4575.9

1160.3

3423.9

351.4

3076.1

632.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin', seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

__________Expenditures__________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Receipts___________
National
Cyclically
adjusted
income accounts
budget
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-15 2.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5

1160 1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-283.5
-237.0
-224.9
-220.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1
2

1337.4
1380.6

N.A.
N.A.

1513.7
1525.6

N.A.
N.A.

-176.2
-145.0

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not A vailable
Fiscal years
Actual
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Estimates
1994
1995

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit

(- )

$ 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5 $ 1153.5
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8
1380.9
1408.2
$ - 221.2 $-149.8 $ -155.2 $-152.5 $-221.4 $-269.5 $-290.4 $-254.7

$ 1259.9 $ 1354.3
1480.0
1521.4
$-220.1 $-167.1

Calendar years
National incom accounts
e
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

- )

$ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1111.4 $ 1128.7 $ 1178.3 $ 1265.7
1028.2
1331.6
1460.9
1065.6
1109.0
1507.0
1181.6
1274.9
$ - 201.0 $-151.8 $ -136.6 $-122.3 $-163.5 $-202.9 $-282.7 $-241.4

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

-)

$ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1189.6
1278.1
$ -185.4 $-154.0 $ -166.2 $-164.1 $-177.3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B’s Mid-Session Review of the FY1994 Budget (July 14, 1994).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Managem ent and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




22

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D eficit( - ) / S u rp lu s(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94
302.5

4-89

-3.6

1-90

4.5

13.3

2-90

3.2

6.7

0.5

3-90

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

5.7

7.7

6.3

8.3

15.2

12.0

2-91

3.9

5.2

3.7

4.5

7.6

2.6

-6.1

3-91

2.5

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.8

-0.7

-6.5

-6.8

4-91

0.9

1.5

-0.1

-0.2

0.6

-3.4

-8.0

-9.0 -11.1

1-92

0.9

1.4

0.0

-0.1

0.7

-2.6

-5.9

-5.8

-5.3

0.8

2-92

0.6

1.0

-0.3

-0.4

0.2

-2.6

-5.3

-5.1

-4.5

-1.0

-2.8

3-92

1.4

1.9

0.8

0.9

1.5

-0.7

-2.7

-2.0

-0.7

3.0

4.1

4-92

1.1

1.5

0.5

0.4

1.0

-1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.2

1.4

1.6

3.9

-3.2

316.0

1-93

0.2

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-2.2

-3.8

-3.5

-2.9

-1.2

-1.7

-1.3

-7.1 -10.9

307.0

312.1
312.5
309.1
322.5
331.8
326.6
320.9
311.6
312.2
310.0
318.6

11.6

2-93

0.0

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.4

-2.1

-3.6

-3.2

-2.7

-1.2

-1.6

-1.4

-5.3

-6.4

-1.6

3-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.1

-2.7

-4.1

-3.8

-3.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.8

-6.2

-7.1

-5.1

-8.6

4-93

-0.5

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.7

-3.5

-3.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

-4.9

-5.3

-3.4

-4.3

0.1

1-94

-1.0

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

-4.0

-3.7

-2.9

-3.3

-3.4

-5.7

-6.2

-5.0

-6.1

-4.8

-9.5

2-94

-1.0

-0.9

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-2.9

-4.0

-3.8

-3.5

-2.7

-3.1

-3.2

-5.1

-5.4

-4.3

-4.9

-3.7

-5.5

-1.4

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

305.8
299.0
299.1
291.7
290.7

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
subscription" in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

4-89

16.5
12.0

10.6

9.5

7.7

2.9

4-90

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

4.3

2.2

-1.4

-3.0

2-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

3-91

Billions of Dollars
4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

3.6

3-90

1-91

18.0

2-90

4-90

15.0

1-90

3-90

907.3
945.7
954.0
2.2

959.2
984.4

10.9
-5.4 -19.4

932.7

2-91

8.0

6.9

4.8

5.1

6.1

3.8

33.6

3-91

8.2

7.2

5.5

5.9

6.9

5.6

20.8

9.2

4-91

9.5

8.8

7.6

8.3

9.5

9.2

20.8

14.9

20.8

1-92

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.1

20.4

16.3

20.1

19.4

2-92

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.7

17.9

14.3

16.0

13.7

8.2

3-92

9.2

8.7

7.8

8.3

9.1

8.8

14.4

10.9

11.4

8.4

3.3

-1.4

1,141.8

4-92

9.5

9.0

8.2

8.7

9.5

9.3

14.2

11.2

11.6

9.4

6.3

5.3

1,176.0

1-93

9.1

8.7

7.9

8.3

9.0

8.8

12.9

10.2

10.4

8.4

5.9

5.1

8.5

4.6

2-93

8.6

8.2

7.5

7.8

8.3

8.1

11.6

9.2

9.1

7.3

5.1

4.3

6.2

3.2

1.9

3-93

8.1

7.7

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.4

10.6

8.2

8.1

6.4

4.4

3.7

5.0

2.6

1.6

1.3

4-93

8.4

8.0

7.4

7.6

8.1

7.8

10.7

8.7

8.6

7.2

5.5

5.1

6.5

5.0

5.1

6.8

12.6

1-94

7.7

7.3

6.6

6.8

7.2

6.9

9.4

7.5

7.3

5.9

4.3

3.7

4.6

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.9

-4.0

2-94

7.5

7.1

6.5

6.7

7.0

6.7

9.0

7.2

7.0

5.7

4.3

3.8

4.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4.1

0.0

4.3

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

1,002.8
1,025.1
1,074.7
1,123.4
1,145.8

12.5

1,189.2
1,194.8
1,198.6
1,234.6
1,222.0
1,234.9

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 26, 1994

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102