Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1995

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FEBRUARY 1995

National
Economic
Trends
NET Improves Content,

Organization
This issue o f National Economic Trends (NET)
introduces several changes in organization and content.
On the next page there is a new table o f contents that
describes the series included and their organization.
In addition, there is a brief description o f how to read
the “ triangles” for data provided throughout NET ; the
triangles allow you to compare compound annual
rates o f change for periods o f your own choosing.
Substantive changes include more detailed informa­
tion on: prices; inventory and sales; components o f
real GDP growth; federal, state and local government
budgets; U.S. international transactions; and components
o f domestic saving and investment. In particular,
triangles for two broad measures o f prices— the GDP
fixed-weight deflator and personal consumption expen­
ditures deflator— have been added, and the producer
price index chart (page 8) now includes the measure
for finished goods, excluding food and energy. Disag­
gregated data on inventory and sales supplement the
total inventory/sales ratio shown on page 16. A new
triangle on real final sales (real GDP less the real change
in business inventories) allows the reader to compare
final sales and output movements (page 17). A decom­
position o f components o f real GDP growth (page 18)
precedes the triangles on individual components o f
real GDP.
Data on U.S. international transactions, especially
the current account and trade balance, have been added

on page 22. New information on government activities
includes triangles on federal purchases o f goods and
services, federal budget receipts and expenditures, and
data on total government receipts and expenditures,
including federal grants-in-aid to state and local govern­
ments. Finally, more detailed data are given on compo­
nents o f saving and investment and on corporate profits,
net cash flow and its disposition.
Some items have been deleted from NET. These
include triangles on the food and the energy components
o f the consumer price index and triangles on the serviceproducing and the goods-producing components of
payroll employment. A triangle for gross private saving
has been deleted, but the data remain, along with
components (page 23). A chart of hourly compensation
has been replaced with unit labor cost (page 10). Unit
labor cost is hourly compensation divided by output
per hour. As a result, there is a simple relationship
that allows one to find the rate o f change o f hourly
compensation as, approximately, the sum o f the rate
o f change o f unit labor cost and the rate o f change of
output per hour. Finally, triangles on net federal debt
and federal defense expenditures have been deleted;
however, the data for net federal debt are on page 25.
Your comments on these changes and suggestions
are welcome. Please send them to the NET editor at
the address:

NET Editor
Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, M O 63166-0442

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



Table of Contents
Page
1
2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Cover Page
Table o f Contents
Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate o f growth from n/1990 to HI/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the n/1990 column and the III/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-90

2-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Annual Rates
2-91

3-91

1.5

3-90

0.3

4-90

-0.8

4,917.1
-0.9

4,906.5

-2.0

-3.2

4,867.2

1-91

-1.1

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

2-91

-0.5

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

4,842.0

1.1

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




2

4,867.9
4,879.9

1.0
0.5

0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
5.9
4.5
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.0

2-90 3-90 4-90
3.1
2.1
2.3
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.8
3.9
4,4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0

1.0
1.9
2.9
3.2
3.0
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1

1-91 2-91

5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5

5,705.9
3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5

5,759.9
2.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7

5,796.6
7.1
6.1
5.7
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

52
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.8

4.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9

8.6
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6,0

4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7

4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9

3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2

7.7
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.6

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.4

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

5,597.9
5,636.8

2.8
3.9
3.9
3.5
4.2
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
5,540.9
5,583.8

7.2
6.7
6.5

6.2
6.1

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
February 2, 1995

3

5,896.8
5,971.3
6,043.6
6,169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6,478.1
6,574.7
6,689.9
6,791.7
6.0_________ 6,891.1

St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
—

—

Percent change from the previous year

— — — - Ten-year moving average of the growth rate

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
1.5
0.3
-0.8
-1.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

-0.9
-2.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.2
13
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.2

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1

-3.2
-2.6
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
0.2
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4

-2.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,842.0
4,867.9

2.4
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.8

3.6
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




1.2
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9

2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2

6.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.4

3.3
3.7
3.8
4.0

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

4 1
4.1
4.2

4.0
4.3

4.5

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5,314.1
5,367.0
5,426.8

1-94 2-94 3-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank
February 2, 1995

4

of St. Loui

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8

2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4

3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7

3.7
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6

3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

2.8
2.7'
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4

2.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3

3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2,7
2.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1

1-94 2-94 3-94

118.0
118.8
119.9
120.7
1.3
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1

121.1

2.7
3.0
2,5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1

3.3
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9

1.0
1.1
1.7
2.0
1.9

1.3
2.1
2.4
2.3

2.9
2.9
2.6

2.9
2.4

1.9

2.1
1.8
1.6
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

121.9
122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
127.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4.4
47
5.1
3.5
4.3
4.3
5.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.3
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.8
36
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.6
3,7
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3

35
3.4
3.3
3.3

3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2

3.3
3.3
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1

3.1

3.1

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1987=100

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1 94 2-94 3-94
112.9
114.3

3.1
3.1
3,0
32
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2

3.1
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2

2.7
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2

3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3,1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

1-91 2-91

116.8
117.7
118.6
119.4
120.5
121.5
122.3
123.2
124.4

3.7
3.5
3.3

3.4
3.0

2.7

3.2
3.3

3.0
3.2

2.8
3.2

3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9

3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8

3.0

2.9

2.8

3-91 4-91

3.0
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.8

4.0
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7

3.3
2.8
2.8
2.8

2.9
2.9

2.8
2.8

2.9

2.8

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.

1.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7

2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9

2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.2
3.0

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93

1-91 2-91

2.4
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.0

3.6
3.4

3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4

3.5
3.4
3.3
3.1

3.1
3.0
3.0
2.8

2.9
2.7

3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1

3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1

3.1
2.9

2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6

2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6

3.8
3.7

2.9
3.0
2.9

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6

1-94 2-94 3-94

2.6
2.7
2.6

1-91 2-91

120.1
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6

121.1
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7

122.1
3.7
2.6

2.6
2.5

3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3

2.5
2.6
2.5

2.4
2.5
2.4

3-91 4-91

1.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3

123.2
123.7
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.6
2.4
2.0
2.1
1.9

2.2
1.8
1,9
1.8

2.1
2.3
2.2

2.0
2.2
2.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




1987=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

113.9
115.6
117.5
118.5
119.2

<0
<N

4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
4.3
5.2
6.1
6.7
5.7
6.4
3.4
5.4
5.1
5.1
4.7
2.9
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.0
4.3
4.3
3.8
3.1
4.2
4.2
3.1
4 1 4 1 3.7
3.7
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.4
3.0
3.7
3.8

1.3
1.7
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.1

124.9
125.7
126.4
126.8
2.2
1.7
2.2
2.4
2.3

1.3
2.2
2.5

3.2
3.2

2.3

2.6

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.1
2.3

1.5

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

6

127.5
127.9
128.9
129.9
130.4

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of S t Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94
144.4

1982-84=100

144.6
145.0
145.1
145.6
146.0
146.3
146.3

8
9
00
o

Terminal
Month
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93
06-93 0.8
07-93 1.3
1.7
2.0
3.4
2.5
09-93 1.7
2.0
2.1
0.8
10-93 2,2
2.5
2.8
2.5
4.2
2.7
11-93 2.4
2.9
2.8
3.8
2.6
12-93
2,8
2.7
3.3
2.3
01-94 2.1
2.4
2.2
2.5
02-94 2.2
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.4
03-94 2.4
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.5
04-94 2.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
05-94 2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
27
06-94 2.4
2.6
2,6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
07-94 2.5
2.8
2.9
08-94 2.7
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.0
09-94 2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
10-94 2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
11-94 2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
12-94 2.6
2.7
2,7
2.7
2.8

0.0
1.7
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7

2.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7

2,8
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7

2.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7

3.3
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.2
2.9
30
2.9

146.7
4.2
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.9

1.6
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.8
2.7

2.5
2.9
3.3

147.2
147.4
147.7

2.9
2.9

3.3
3.7
3.8
3.5
2.9
3.0

4.1
4.1
3.6
2.9
2.9

4.1
3.3
2.4
2.6

2.4
1.6
2.2

0.8
2.0

3.3

2.9

2,9

2.9

2.6

2.2

2.2

2.8

to

1.9
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7

2.5
12

w

W

3.3
2.9
1.9
2.3
2.7
2,5
2.5
2.6
2.8

3.3

148.1
148.6

2.4

149.1
149.4
149.5
149.9
150.2

05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-9403-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

co
<vi>

06-93
07-93
08-93
09-93
10-93
11-93
12-93
01-94
02-94
03-94
04-94
05-94
06-94
07-94
08-94
09-94
10-94
11-94
12-94

Initial Month

05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93
-5.6
-2.8 0.0
-5.0 -4.7 -9.2
-3.3 -2.5 -3.8 2.0
-2.8 -2.1 -2.8 0.5 -1.0
-2.2 -1.5 -1.9 0.6 0.0
-2.0 -1.4 -1.7 0.2
-1.3 -0.7 -0.8 1.0 0.7
1.6
1.6
-0.6 0.0 0.0
0.2
1.7
1.6
-0.4 0.2
1.5
1.4
-0.3 0.2 0.2
1.1
10
-0.5 0.0 0.0
-0.4 0 1 0.1
1,1
1.0
0.1
0.5
1.5
1.4
0.6
0.4 0.9
19
1.0
1.8
0.2 0.6
1.4
1.4
0.6
-0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9
0.8
0.2 0.5
1.2
1.2
0.5
0.3 0.6
0.7
1.3
1,3

1982=100

10-93 11-93 12-9301-94 02-9403-9404-94 05-9406-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94
125.1
125.1
124.1
124.3
124.2
1.0
0.0
1.3
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.4

124.3
-1.0
1.5
2.6
2.4
1.9
1.3
1.2
1.8
2.3
1.6
1.0
1.4
1.5

3.9
4.4
3.6
2.7
1.7
1,6
2.2
2.7
1.9
1.2
1.6
1,7

49
3.4
2.3
1.2
1.2
1.9
2.5
1.7
0.9
1.3
1.5

1.9
10
0.0
0.2
1.3
2.1
1.2
0.4
1.0
1.2

0.0
-1.0
-0.3
1.2
2.1
1.1
0.1
0.8
1.1

-1.9
-0.5
1.6
2.7
1.3
0.2
1.0
1.2

1,0
3.4
4.2
2.2
0.6
1.4
1,7

5.9
5.9
2.6
0.5
1.5
1.8

5.9
1.0
-1.3
0.5
10

-3.7
-4.7
-1.3
-0.2

-5.6
0.0
1.0

5.9
4.4

2.9

124.2
124.6
125.1
125.3
125.3
125.1
125.2
125.8
126.4
126.0
125.4
126.0
126.3

05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01 -94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11 -94




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

_

Percent

Benefits

¥

\

✓

\

1

\

1

f
1

J _____

/N

... \ ...................
\
N
- /
T<ria l Compensa tion

✓

\
\
>
\

A «
h - v
Wages and Salai ies

\
......\ ................
^

'

•

\
\
X

1

1

1

1

1989

1

1

1

1990

1
1991

1

i

|

i

1992

i

I

i

1993

I

1

r ..1

1994

i

1

1995

Total compensation Is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4*91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.0
4.0
__ 4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7

2-90 3-90 4-90
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7

3.8
4.2
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6

4.6
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4.9 ■
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.0
4.0
3,7
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.6

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1-94 2-94 3-94

____________________
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4

105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8

111.9
113.0
2.9
113.8
2.9
2.8
114.6
3.4
3.9
3.2
115.7
3.5
3.6
4.1
4.2________________________________________________________ 116.9
3.6
3.9
3.8
3,5
3.5
117.9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
118.9
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
119.9
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
120.8
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.4
121.8
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
122.8
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.6
123.6
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4

Data are for the last month of quarter.




June 1989=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

9

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1994

1995

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

1.2
14
1.4
1.5
1.9
18
2.0
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.1

4-89

Initial Quarter
4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1982=100
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.1
-1.1

1-94 2-94

1.1
1.3

0.4
0.8

1.3
1.4

1.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.9

0.9
1.1
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.0
1.8

1.9

1.9

110.8
-1.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.6
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.0
2.1

110.5
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.3

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90




111.4
2.2
1.8
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.2

112.0
1.4
1.8
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.2

112.4
2.2

113.0

3.8
2.9

5.4
3.2

3.1
3.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.2

3.4
3.4
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.6

2.5
2.7

1.6
2.2

3.9
3.5
16
1.4
17
2.4

2.6
2.2
2.3

2.3
1.8
2.0

2.5
1.9
2.1

2.3

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

114.5
1.1

1.5
1.3

114.8
3.1
0.5
0.6
1.2
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.8

-2.0
-0.7
0.6
1.9
2.0
1.4
1.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

115.9
116.8
116.2
116.4

0.7
1.9
3.2
t~4

2.1
1.9
1.9

3-91

110.2
111.1

3.3
1.1
0.4

1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1

1-91 2-91

CO

3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94

1.3
0.7

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

:
:
00

1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91

4-89
1.8
2.6

2.1
2.3

3.1
4.5
3.9
2.4

5.9
4.3
2.2

2.6

2.5

2.7
0.3
1.3

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-2.0
0.7

3.4

117.3
119.0
119.8
119.2
120.2

1-94 2-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

10

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987-100

1987-100

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

199 4

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
1987=100
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94
.................................................
, , ,
, .................... ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .......................................................
06-93 4.4
111.5
III®!
112.0
07-93 5.0
5.5
llllil
08-93 4.0
112.2
3.8
22
09-93 3.8
112.5
3.6
2.7
3.3
10-93 3.5
3.3
112.7
2.5
2.7
2.2
11-93 4.7
4.8
4.6
113.7
5.5
6.6 11.2
5.8
12-93 5.6
114.7
5.9
6.8
8.1 11.1 l i 1
01-94 4.9
5.0
4.9
5.4
5.4
114.7
6.0
7.3
0.0
02-94 5.4
5.6
5.6
6.2
7.9
115.6
6.7
6.9
4.8 9.8
03-94 6.0
6.1
6.2
6.8
7.4
8.5
116.6
7.8
6.8 10.4 10.9
04-94 5.5
5.6
116.7
56 6.1 6.5 7.2 6.4 5.3 7.2 5.8 1.0
05-94 5 7
5.8
5.8
6.2
7.3
117.4
6.6
6.6
5.7
7.2
6.4
4.2
7.4
Cl ct
06-94 5.7
5.8
6.2
59
6.6
7.1
5.8
7.0
6.4
4.9
6.9
6.3
118.0
07-94 5.5
5.5
5.5
5.8
6.1
2.1
6.6
6.0
5.3
4.2
118.2
6.2
5.5
5.2
4.2
08-94 5.7
5.8
5.8
6.4
6.1
6.9
6.4
5.7
9.5
119.1
5.8
6.7
5.2
6.3
5.9
6.1
09-94 5.3
5.3
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.1
5.6
5.0
4.1 -1.0
5.7
4.2
4 1 3.4
119.0
5.1
4.8
10-94 5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.9
5.5
5.3
1.5 M . 1
4.1
119.4
4.9
5.5
5.0
4.2
4.7
4.1
3.6
11-94 5.4
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.9
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.1
6.7
5.9
5.4
9.4
120.3
5.5
4.8
5.0
4.7
5.3
12-94 5.8
5.8
8.1
6.3
6.6
6.2
5.9
5.8
121.4
6.4
5.9
6.1
5.5
6.1
5.9
5.8
6.6
8.3 10.5 11.5
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93
06-93 0.1
07-93 1.0
1.9
08-93 1.7
2.6
3,3
09-93 1.0
1.3
1.0 -1.2
10-93 1,5
1.9
1,9
1.3
3.8
11-93 1.9 2.3
2.4
2.2
3.9
12-93 2,1
2.5
2,6
2.4
3.7
01-94 3.4
3.9
4.3
4.5
6.0
02-94 3,4
3.8
4.1
4.2
5.4
03-94 3.0
3.3
3.5
3.6
4.4
04-94 3.0 3.2
3.4
3.4
4.1
3.2
05-94 3.0
3.4
3.4
4.0
06-94 2.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.4
07-94 2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.2
08-94 2.7
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.3
09-94 2.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.4
10-94 2.9
3.1
3.2
3,2
3.5
11-94 2.9
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.1
12-94 2.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.3

Millions of
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94

119,187
119.370
119,692
119.568
119,941
4.0
3.7
6.7
5.8
4.5
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.3

120.332
3.3
8.1
6.4
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.2

13.1
7.9
5.1
4.4
4.1
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.2

3.0
1.3
1.6
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.4

-0.5
1.0
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.3

2.4
2.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.4

-

3.0
1.1 -0.7
1.2
0.4
1.4
4.1
2.0
1.6 2.8
4.3
4.4
2.5
2.3
3.3
4.5
4.7
2.8
4.9
2,9
2.8
37
4.0
4.0
3.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
35
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.1
1.6
2.6
2,7
26
3.2
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94




Persons

120,661.
121.903
122.208
122.160
122.402
122.703
122.635
122.781
123.197
123.644
124.141
124.403
124.570

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

120

120

115

_______

^
i

.

115

!

l

1
2 . 2 %

I

—

1 .9 *

110

\ V
1

1 . 9 *

- U

110

. J X
,

□ y r o ll

105

100

l

l

E m

p lo y r r l e n t

105

p

1

1
T -

'T

r—

T

1989

^

,

.

&

1

1990

1991

1 ........ r "

1992

"

1

1

1

1993

'

.....1

1------------- ........... 1

1994

1

1

100

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93
06-93 1.0
07-93 1.9
2.8
08-93 1.6
0.9
1.9
09-93 1.7
2.0
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
10-93 1.8
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.4
11-93 2.0
2.4
12-93 2.1
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.1
01-94 1.9
2.0
2.2
2,2
02-94 2.0
2.1
03-94 2.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.5
2,8
04-94 2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
05-94 2.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
06-94 2.5
2.7
2.7
2.9
07-94 2.6
2.9
2.7
2,7
2.9
2.9
08-94 2,6
2.9
09-94 2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.7
10-94 2.6
2.7
2.8
2.8
11-94 2.7
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
12-94 2.7
2.8
3.0
2.8
3.0

Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94

2.8
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1

1Î 0.372
110.628
110.714
110.923
111.112
111.366
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.5
2.9
2.9

111.610
1.1
1,7
2.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3,0
32
3,1

2.3
3.2
4.1
3.6
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.5
2.7
3.4
3.7
3.0
4.1
3.5
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
3,1
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.4
33
3.5
2.3
1.7
2.7
2.6
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.5
5.2
3.4
32
33
3.1
3.4
3.4
32
3.5
3.3
3,2
4.0
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.3
3,2
3.3
3,1
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-9408-94 09-94 10-94 11-94




Millions of
Persons

111.711
111.919
112.298
112.699
112.951
113.334
113.624
113.914
114.186
114.348
114.836
115,092

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93
06-93 -3.3
07-93 -3.4 -3.6
08-93 1.8 4.4 13.0
09-93 1.0
2.5
5.6 -1.2
10-93 1.6
2.9
5.1
1.4
4.1
3.2
4.4
11-93 2.1
5.0
2.5
12-93 2.9
3.9
5.5
3.7
5.4
01-94 1.4
2.1
3.1
1.2
1.8
02-94 3.2 4.0
5.1
4.9
3.9
03-94 3.2
3.9
4.9
3.8
4.6
04-94 2.5
3.1
3.9
3.4
2.8
05-94 3.2
3.8
4.5
4.2
3.6
06-94 2.9
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.7
07-94 2.8
3.8
3.3
3.0
3.5
08-94 2.9
3.9
3.3
3.1
3.5
09-94 3.1
3.5
4.0
3.4
3.7
4.8
4.2
10-94 3.8 4.3
4.7
11-94 3.4
3.8
4.3
3.8
4.1
4.1
12-94 3.7 4.1
4.4
4.6

Billions of Dollars
Initial Month
10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94

4.6
6.0
1.1
5.1
4.7
3.2
4.3
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.7
4.7
4.1
4.4

3.695.7
3,684.5
3.722.2
3,718.4
3,730.9
3,745.0
7.5
-0.6
5.3
4.7
3.0
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.6
4.7
4.1
4.4

3.767.6
-8.1
4.2
3.8
1.9
3.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.2
4.4
3.8
4.2

18.1
10.4
5.4
6.7
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.7
5.9
5.1
5.4

3.1
-0.4
3.2
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.9
4.5
3.7
4.2

-3.8
3.2
1.9
1.8
2.3
2.9
4.7
3.8
4.3

10.6
4.8
3.8
3.9
4.3
6.2
4.9
5.4

-0.6
0.5
1.7
2.7
5.3
4.0
4.6

1.6
2.9
3.9
6.9
4.9
5.5

4.2
5.1
8.7
5.8
6.3

5.9
11.0
6.3
6.9

16.4
6.5
7.2

-2.5
2.9

8.6

05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

14

3,741.1
3.793.3
3,803.1
3,790.9
3,822.9
3,820.9
3,826.0
3,839.2
3,857.6
3,906.7
3,898.5
3.925.3

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1 9 8 2 -8 4 —100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
Initial Month
Millions of Dollars
05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11-93 12-93 01-94 02-9403-94 04-9405-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11-94

05-93 06-93 07-93 08-93 09-93 10-93 11 -93 12-93 01 -94 02-94 03-94 04-94 05-94 06-94 07-94 08-94 09-94 10-94 11 -94
Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Total Business

Period
1990
1991
1992
1993

Shipments
239.17
235.49
244.33
258.34

Inventories
395.05
391.87
383.07
380.18

Sales
154.05
155.27
162.71
173.34

Inventories
239.87
240.04
247.99
263.72

Sales
542.07
537.59
558.59
591.99

Inventories
828.18
830.08
835.21
856.85

1993
August
September
October
November
December

256.56
260.09
260.47
265.57
269.72

381.39
380.69
380.30
380.18
377.43

174.37
174.47
177.71
178.76
180.87

263.17
265.50
268.00
270.56
271.57

591.66
595.31
600.10
606.64
612.39

859.11
861.18
862.67
866.24
865.58

1994
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

268.33
271.82
274.50
274.24
276.23
278.57
275.49
288.08
286.13
283.98
290.38
N.A.

378.91
380.07
379.77
380.65
382.38
383.11
386.65
387.01
386.53
388.06
390.01
N.A.

178.64
181.96
185.30
183.43
183.40
185.09
185.29
187.97
189.47
191.79
192.08
N.A.

271.51
272.95
273.06
274.74
279.59
282.90
281.41
287.90
291.45
293.10
294.68
N.A.

610.46
619.10
627.78
625.08
627.52
632.86
630.57
651.21
649.93
651.92
658.44
N.A.

867.69
871.84
870.19
874.99
885.19
889.10
894.69
902.51
906.75
913.39
919.81
N.A.

Note: Total business includes manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers; manufacturing sales are
measured by shipments.




16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91

*—
*

2-94
3-94
4-94

2.1

3-91 4-91

4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,858.4

-2.4
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.7
1.5

1.8
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.7

1.6
1.7
2.1
2.1

2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5

2.1
2.2

2.4
2.6

m

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

-0.8
-0.5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6

4,879.8
4,869.5
-0.2
2.3
2.0
2.4
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9

4.8
3.1
3.2
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.2

2.6
3.0
3.3
2.7
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4,867.3
4,924.8
1.5
2.5
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.1
3,1

3.5
4.5
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3

5.6
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2

4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5.086.5
5,126.5
5.207.2
5,235.7

0.2
1.3
1.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9

3.3
3-0
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

2.4
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.3

32
4.8
3.9
3.3
3.5

6.4
43
3.4
3.6

2.2
1.8
2.6

3t5

3.6

2.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

<N

4-93
1-94

1-91 2-91

1

4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93

4-90

•4

2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92

1-90 2-90 3-90
-0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.2 -0.0 -0.6
-0.7 -0.8 -1.5
-0.2 -0.2 -0.4
-0.3 -0.3 -0.5
-0.3 -0.3 -0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
11
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.0

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.5
2.9

4.3

3,1

4.0

3.7

5,254.9
5,310.0
5.358.8

1-94 2-94 3-94
Prepared by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Li
February 2 ,1 9 9 5

17

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate

Real GDP

4-94

3 - 94

2-94

1 - 94

4-93

3-93

2-93

1- 93

4.53%

4.04%

4.09%

3.35%

6.26%

2.69%

2.39%

1.16%

Components (1)
Final Sales

3.69

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

2.36

0.21

Change in Business
Inventories

0.81

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

0.03

0.94

Expenditures

3.05

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

1.75

1.10

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

2.00

1.40

1.40

1.67

3.38

1.70

1.31

1.76

2.12

1.67

1.09

1.26

2.30

1.33

1.64

1.54

-0.11

-0.27

0.30

0.41

1.05

0.37

-0.32

0.21

Personal Consumption

Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local

-0.82

1.13

-0.21

-0.89

-0.02

0.20

0.22

-1.11

-1.06

0.66

-0.53

-0.72

-0.35

-0.21

-0.26

-1.21

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

0.48

0.10

Net Exports
Exports

-0.53

-0.39

-0.59

-1.66

0.32

-1.33

-0.92

-1.50

1.69

1.71

1.86

-0.43

2.35

-0.38

0.87

-0.12

Imports

-2.19

-2.08

-2.41

-1.24

-1.99

-0.94

-1.78

-1.38

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90 2-90 3-90
0.9
2.1
1.5
0.1 -0.3 -2 7
-0.7 -1.2 -2.7
-0.1 -0.4 -1.2
0.1 -0.0 -0.6
0.0 -0.1 -0.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.9 2.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.2

4-90

-2.8
-0.4
0.2
-0.0
1.1
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2.1
1.7
0.9
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0

1.3
0.4
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.1

-0.5
2.6
2.3
2.7
3.3
30
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

x'
5.8
3.7
3.8
4.2
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3;5
3.5

3.5
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1.7
2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.3

3.9
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
37
3.4
3.4
3.5

5.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

2.6
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.4

3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.6

4.0
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.5

4.7
3.0
3.0
3.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.3
2.2
3.0

3.1
3.8

,\ v —

4.6

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
February 2,1995

18

3,271.6
3,288.4
3.265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8
3.265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3.557.8
3,584.7
3.625.1

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90
-18.3
-20.2
-21.6
-22.4

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

-18.0
-13.2
-9.6
-6.1
-3.2
-2.8
♦0.7
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
1.6
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.6

2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94
2 0 1 .2

-22.1
-23.2 -24.3
-23.7 -24.5 -24.8
-17.9 -16.5 -Ì2.3
-12.1 -9.4 -3.8
-8.0 -4.9 0.7
-4.2 -0.8 4.7
-1.2 2.2
7.5
-1.0 2.1
6.5
13
4.3
8.5
4.4
1.6
8.2
3.2
0.8
6.5
3.7
1.5
6.8
3.2
5.4
8.4
5.8
3.6
8.5
3.8
5.8
8.4
7.4
3.2
5.1
4.6
6.7
2.9

189.0
176.3
2.2
8.7
10.9
13.7
15.4
12.9
14.4
13.2
10.7
10.6
12.0
11.9
11.5
10.1
9.2

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

15.6
15.6 15.6
17.8 18.9 22.4
19.0 20.2 22.6 22.7
15.1 15.0 14.8 11.2
16.5 16.7 17.0 15.3
14.9 14.7 14.6 12.7
11.8 11.2 10.5 8.3
11.5 11.0 10.4 8.5
13.1 12.8 12.5 11.1
12.8 12.5 12.2 11.0
12.3 12.0 11.6 10.5
8.7
10.8 10.4 9.9
9.8
9.3
7.7
8.8

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5
0.8
11.7 23.8
9.5 14.2
5.0 6.4
5.9
7.2
9.3 11.1
9.4 10.9
9.1 10.3
7.3
8.1
6.3 6.9

5.3
-1.3
2.1
8.1
8.5
8.2
6.1
4.9

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.

-7.6
0.6
9.0
9.3
8.8
6.2
4.9

9.4
18.4 28.2
15.5 18.7
13.3 14.7
9.2
9.1
7.1
6.7

10.0
8.5
3.4
1.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

7.0
0.3
-0.7

-6.0
-4.3

-2.6

196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
228.7

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
-4.1
0.4
-2.4
-5.1
-4.7
-4.4
-4.6
-4.0
-2.1
-1.4

2-90 3-90 4-90
5.0
-1.6 -7.7
-5.4 -10.2
-4.8 -7.9
-4.4 -6.7
-4.7 -6.5
-4.0 -5.4
-1.8 -2.8
-1.1 -1.8

-0.6
0.6
1.7
2.4
3.6
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.5

-0.3
1.0
2.2
2.9
4.1
4.6
4.8
5.4
6.0

-0,8
0.7
1.9
2.7
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.4
6.1

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
0.1
1.6
3.0
3.8
5.1
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.0

-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.8
8.5

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.7
9.3

-5.7
-2.9
2.7
3.3
4.1
5.9
7.2
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
10.3

-0.1
7.2
6.4
6.7
8.3
9.5
9.9
11.2
11.2
11.0
11.3
11.8

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

15.0
5.0
9.9
9.1
6.2
10.6 9.1
11.6 10.7
11.7 11.0
13.0 12.6
12.7 12.4
12.3 12.0
12.5 12.2
12.9 12.7

7.5
11.3
12.7
12.6
14.2
13.7
13.0
13.1
13.6

15.1
15.4
14.3
16.0
14.9
13.9
14.0
14.4

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3

12.2
16.5 21.1
14.6 15.9
13.2 13.6
13.4 13.7
14.1 14.5

10.9
10.0
11.4
12.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

9.2
11.6
13.6

14.1
15.9 17.6

1-94 2-94 3-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

19

544.5
551.2
540.2
522.2
518.3
514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.0
708.2

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90 2-90
1.1
0.2 -0.6
2.1
2.6
2.3
2.7
1.9
2.1
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.1 -0.2
0.0 -0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.2 -0.3
-0.3 -0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.2 -0.2

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

3-90 4-90

5.8
4.4
3.1
1.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0 1
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
-0.2

3.0
17
-0.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
-0.6

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

0.5
-1.7
-2.1
-1.2
-1.6
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-11
-0.5
-0.8

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

-3.9
-3.4
-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9

-2.9
-0.7
-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
-1.1
-07
-0.5
-05
-0.9
-0.9
-0.3
-0.7

1.5
-0.8
0.6
0.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.7
-0.1
-0.5

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-3.0
0.1
0.4
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
-0.7

3.4
2.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
0.1
-0.4

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1 3
-0.3
-0.8

-5.9
-2.4
-1.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.7
-0.5
-11

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
1.1
0.7
-0.7
-0.8
0.4
-0.3

1.1
0.5
-1.3
-1.3
0.2
-0.6

-0.1
-2.5
-2.1
0.0
-0.9

-4.9
-3.1
0.1
-1.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are m easured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-Q4

-1.2
2.6
0.1

6.7
0.8

-4.7

930.6
929.2
942.4
949.5
950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8
930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
920.9

1-94 2-94 3-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui
February 2, 1995

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

01

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-3.0
04
2.5
1.8
-0.3
-1.7
-1.6
-2.0
-1.0
-0.8
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.5
-3.0
-3.3
-2.5
-3.3

-5.2
0.9
3.7
2.4
-0.2
-1.8
-1.8
-2.2
-1.0
-0.8
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2,6
-3.1
-3.4
-2.6
-3.4

384.7
379.6
7.5
8.4
5 1
1.1
-1.2
-12
-1.7
-0.5
-0.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-3.0
-3.3
-2.5
-3.3

386.5
9.3
4.0
-1.0
-3.2
-2.8
-3.2
-1.6
-1.2
-2.9
-3.0
-3.0
-3.2
-3.7
-4.0
-3.1
-3.9

-1.1
-5.8 -10.2
-7.1 -9.9 -9.5
-5.6 -7.1 -5.5
-5.5 -6.5 -5.3
-3.3 -3.7 -2.0
-2.7 -2.9 -1.4
-4.3 -4.8 -3.9
-4.3 -4.7 -3.8
-4.1 -4.5 -3.7
-4.2 -4.5 -3.9
-4.7 -5.1 -4.5
-5.0 -5.3 -4.8
-3.9 -4.1 -3.6
-4.8 -5.0 -4.6
1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

395.2
394.1
383.6
-1.3
-3.1
0.7
0,8
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
-3.1
-3.9
-4.4
-3.1
-4.2

-4.8
1.7
1.5
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3.4
-4.3
-4.7
-3.2
-4.4

4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

8.6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
-2.8
-3.1
-4.2
-4.7
-3.1
-4.4

1.1
-7.5 -15.4
-6.2 -9.7 -3.6
-5.4 -7.5 -3.3
-5.3 -6.9 -3.9
-6.2 -7.6 -5.5
-6.4 -7.6 -6.0
-4.4 -5.2 -3.4
-5.7 -6.6 -5.2

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




-3.0
-4.0
-6.1
-6.6
-3.3
-5.5

-5.0
-7.7 -10.3
-7.8 -9.1 -7.9
1.1 10.9
-3.4 -2.9
-6.0 -6.2 -4.8 -3.3 -15.6
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

374 1
372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
329.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui:
February 2, 1995

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter

1-90
7.6
2.7
5.0
3.4
6.7
5.6
6.8
6.7
6,1
6.0
6.1
5.5
5.7
5.0

Annual Rates

2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
511.1
-1.9
3.7
2.1
6.4
5.2
6.6
6.5
5.9
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.5
4.8

508.6
9.6
4.1
9.4
7.1
8.4
8.0
7.1
6.8
6.9
6.1
6.2
5.4

520.4
519.0

-1.1
9.3
63
8.1
7.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
5.7
5.9
5.0

20.7
10.2
11.4
10.0
8.3
7.8
7.7
6.5
6.7
5.6

544.0
0.6
7.0
6.7
5.3
5.3
5.6
4.7
äÖ
4.1

544.8
13.7
9.8
7.0
6.6
6.7
5.4
5.7
4.5

562.6
6.1
3.8
4.3
5.0
3.8
4.4
3.3

1.5
3.4
4.6
3.2
4.1
2.8

5.3
6,2
3.8
4.7
3.1

571.0
573.1
580.5
7.2
3.0
4.6
2.5

-1.0
3.2
1.0

7.7
2.1

”
-3.2

”

“

589.2
'600.2
595.3

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2 ,1 9 9 5

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

3-94
4-94

7.6
8.1

7.8
8.2

8.2
8.7

9.5
9.9

11.3 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.0 12.5 13.3 13.6 13.4 15.0 14.6 17.2 15.6
11.6 11.4 11.4 12,0 12.5 12.4 12.9 13.7 14.0 13.8 15.2 14.9 16.8 15.8 16,0

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




783.5
813.1

21

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

1989

Billions of Dollars

1990

1991

1992

1993

1 99 4

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represent, a period of business recession.

prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

3 - 94

2-94

1 -94

4-93

3-93

2-93

1-93

4-92

176,624

170,569

164,872

166,279

158,052

160,105

157,241

157,483

28,513

28,801

27,727

26,158

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

35,399

31,878

29,888

28,816

Imports
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

(206,135) (197,215) (189,200) (186,255) (180,310) (179,175) (171,663) (170,829)
(39,347) (34,687) (30,699) (29,406) (26,498) (28,133) (25,872) (26,887)

Balance on Current Account

(41,722) (37,906) (32,317) (30,587)

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

(20,394)

(7,031)

(165)

3,537

U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

(48,236) (63,622) (35,651) (35,966) (12,659)
(59)

(673)

(544)

822

(983)

(20,111) (11,030) (48,667) (62,628) (34,915) (36,507) (12,164)

67,439

49,257

95,078

90,162

17,496

8,925

11,530

23,962

83,548

66,200

49,943

40,332

Note: Negative values are in parentheses and indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




(27,856) (25,602) (19,850) (24,383)

22

(29,395)
1,542
(30,236)

42,581

51,829

16,772

19,259

17,492

10,968

9,363

52,675

34,337

5,804

36,218

71,934

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

1992

Percent

1993

1994

1995

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Savings and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross Savings

Gross Private Savings

Gross Private
Domestic Investment

U.S. Net
Foreign Investment

Period

Dollar

Percent (%)

Dollar

Percent (%)

Dollar

Percent (%)

Dollar

Percent (%)

1990:1
2
3
4

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

1991:1
2
3
4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

1992: 1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

1993: 1
2
3
4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
N.A.

13.5
13.8
13.6
N.A.

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
N.A.

15.8
15.6
15.5
N.A.

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1093.9

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.9

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
N.A.

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
N.A.

Note: Gross Savings equals Gross Private Domestic Investment, U.S. Net Foreign Investment (the excess of U.S. investment
abroad over foreign investment in the U.S.) less a statistical discrepancy.




23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94

4-89
67.4
49.7
0.9
2.5
13.5
12.1
8.9
9.0
9.9
7.9
2.9
8.8
8.0
9.4
10.8
11.7
9.5
10.5
10.1
4-89

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
33.8
-21.7
-13.0
3.0
3.5
1.3
2.5
4.3
2.8
-1.9
4.6
4.1
5.8
7.6
8.7
6.6
7.8
7.5

-54.1
-29.8
-5.6
-3.0
-4.1
-2.0
0.6
-0.5
-5.3
2.1
1.8
3.8
5.8
7.1
5.0
6.4
6.2

7.4
35.4 70.7
24.6 34.1 5.4
15.2 18.0 -1.9
14.1 15.9 1.8
14.7 16.2 5.5
11.1 11.7 2.6
3.7
3.2 -5.1
11.6 12.1 5.6
10.2 10.5 4.7
11.8 12.2 7.1
13.4 14.0 9.5
14.3 14.9 10.8
11.4 11.8 7.9
12.5 12.9 9.3
11.9 12.2 8.9

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

-8.7
0.1
5.6
2.0
-7.1
5.6
4.6
7.3
9.9
11.4
8.1
9.7
9.1

3-92

4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94

9.7
13.6 17.6
5.8
3.9 -8.2
-6.7 -11.5 -23.3 -35.8
8.7
8.5
5.6 13.3 100.2
8.2 40.5 -1.4
7.0
6.4
3.8
8.4 13.0 36.5 12.7 28.8
9.9
9.9
12.5 12.9 12.2 16.8 35.6 19.1 30.9 33.1
13.9 14.4 14.0 18.2 33.5 20.6 29.0 29.1 25.3
10.0 10.0 9.1 11.8 2 2 .7 11.2 14.6 10.2 0.3 -19.7
11.5 11.7 11.0 13.7 23.4 13.9 17.2 14.4 8.8
1.4 28.1
10.8 10.9 10.2 12.5 20.7 12.2 14.7 12.1 7.4
2.0 14.9

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Third quarter data are final estimates.

3-92

4-92

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.1

1-94 2-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2 ,1 9 9 5

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

1992: 1
2
3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
N.A.

324.1
344.8
347.4
N.A.

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.2

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-28.8

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.6

572.2
582.3
591.7
N.A.

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

4

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

1991: 1
2
3
4

Period

1990: 1
2
3

Net
Cash Fli

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4

24

Government Deficit(- ) /Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1989

1990

1991

1992

Billions of Dollars

1993

1995

1994

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Private
by Federal
Reserve Banks
Investors

Federal Debt held
by Foreign
Investors

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2427.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8

March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4

March
June
September
December

4230.6
4356.4
4424.8
4513.1

1060.0
1089.9
1122.3
1139.8

3178.1
3268.6
3304.7
3368.7

313.0
330.0
329.7
330.6

2877.7
2950.2
2995.0
3041.6

562.5
568.3
595.5
619.5

March
June
September
December

4575.9
4650.5
4706.9
N.A

1160.3
1192.2
1219.2
N.A.

3423.9
3460.2
3490.2
N.A.

351.4
359.1
359.5
N.A.

3076.1
3100.6
3140.4
N.A.

631.4
633.1
658.4
N.A.

Period

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR EA S U R Y BULLETIN and also in the Federal Reserve BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal. State and Local

Federal
Period
1989: 1
2

3
4

1990: 1
2

3
4

1991: 1
2

3
4

1992: 1
2
3
4
1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3
1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8
1120.1
1121.8
1132.5
1140.5
1155.7
1171.0
1166.5
1219.9
1212.7
1263.7
1272.7
1313.6
1337.4
1380.7
1388.8
N.A

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8
1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9
1264.5
1329.4
1346.0
1386.3
1435.6
1455.8
1460.4
1492.0
1496.2
1500.6
1497.6
1533.7
1513.7
1525.9
1542.8
1570.3

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5
-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0
-144.4
-207.6
-213.6
-245.8
-279.9
-284.8
-293.9
-272.1
-283.5
-237.0
-224.9
-220.1
-176.2
-145.1
-154.0
N.A.

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

Grants-in-Aid(l)

1598.0
1625.4
1622.8
1644.1
1676.1
1705.0
1728.7
1726.5
1734.0
1744.7
1768.5
1788.7
1813.5
1836.9
1837.0
1908.8
1901.0
1965.1
1980.9
2035.4
2066.5
2121.9
2138.8
N.A.

1664.0
1686.9
1705.0
1744.3
1808.0
1827.7
1848.6
1905.8
1868.4
1937.4
1964.2
2009.4
2073.5
2095.8
2110.5
2147.9
2162.9
2176.7
2181.9
2221.0
2217.6
2240.1
2269.6
2302.0

-66.1
-61.5
-82.3
-100.2
-131.9
-122.7
-119.9
-179.3
-134.4
-192.7
-195.8
-220.7
-260.0
-258.9
-273.5
-239.0
-261.9
-211.7
-201.0
-185.6
-151.0
-118.1
-130.1
N.A.

115.7
117.1
118.2
121.9
127.7
131.9
131.9
137.6
144.3
151.7
154.7
162.6
164.6
172.8
174.6
176.6
176.7
182.9
187.8
197.0
190.0
194.4
200.3
206.9

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit(-)

1989

1990

Actual
1991

$990.7
1.143.2
-152.5

$1,031.3
1.252.7
-221.4

$1,054.3
1.323.8
-269.5

1992

1993

1994

Estimate
1995

$1,090.5
-290.4

$1,153.2
1.408.5
-255.3

$1,257.2
1.460.6
-203.4

$1,354.3
1.521.4
-167.1

ima

Calendar Years
National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

$1,059.3
1.181.6
-122.3

$1,111.4
1.274.9
-163.5

$1,128.7
1.331.6
-202.9

$1,178.3
1.460.9
-282.7

$1,265.7
1.507.0
-241.4

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB's Mid-Session Review of the fiscal year 1994 Budget (July 14,1994).
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-90
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94

4-89
8.9
8.8
7.0
4.4
3.9
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.2
4.5
4.0
4.9
4.8
5.3
5.4 :
5.9
5.7

2.5
2.6
2.9
3.2
2.7
4.1
3.6
4.6
4.5
5.1
5.2
5.7
5.5

4-89

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90
8.8
6.0
3.0
2.6
2.2

3.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.5
2.0
3.7
3.1
4.3
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.5
5.3

-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
1.9
3.7
3.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.6
5.4

1.6
11
2.0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0

1-91 2-91

0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5.0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.3

39
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8

1-91 2-91

Initial Quarter
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
6.5
6.0
6.8
6.9
7.5
7.0

5.4
5.4
3.1
7.0
5.0
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.4

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94

5.4
1,9
7.5
4.9
7.4
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6

-1.5
8.5
4.8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9

19.6
8.1 -2.3
113 7.3
9.1
5.8
10.0 7.7
9,5
7.6
10 1 8.6
9.1
7.7

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

Third quarter data are final estimates.

17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8

13.5
10.4
115
9.1

7.4
10.5
7.7

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

13.6
7.8

2.4

1,091.3
1,114.5
1,123.7
1,115.8
1,120.1
1,121.8
1,132.5
1,140.5
1,155.7
1,171.0
1,166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1,388.8

1-94 2-94

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-90
3-90
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-90
2.8
1.7
5.2
0.5
4.5
4.6
5.7
6.8
6.7
6.2
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.1
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.8

2-90 3-90 4-90
0.6
6.5
-0.2
5.0
5.0
6.2
7.4
7.2
6.5
6.8
6.2
5.8
5.3
5.6
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.9

1-91 2-91

12.7
-0.6 -12.4
6.5
3.5 22.2
6.1
4.0 13.3 5.1
7.4
6.1 13.0 8.7
8.6
7.8 13.5 10.8
8.2
7.5 11.9 9.5
7.3
6.6 10.1 7.8
7.5
6.8
9.9
8.0
6.8
6.2
8.8
7.0
5.7
6.3
7.9
6.2
5.7
5.1
7.0
5.4
6.0
5.5
7.3
5.9
6.2
5.2
4.6
4.8
6.0
5.1
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.0
4.5
5.8
5.2
4.7
5.9 4.9

1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90

3-91 4-91

12.5
13.8
11.0
8.5
8.6
7.3
6.4
5.5
6.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9

15.0
10.3
7.2
7.6
6.3
5.4
4.5
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

57
3.5
5,3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3

13
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.6
3.1

8,9
5.0
3,7
2.5
4.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.2
0.2
3.4
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.8

-0.8
4.5
1.2
1.7
2.2
3.1

10.0
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.9

-5.1
-1.0
0.8
2.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.3
3.9
5.0

4.5
5.9

7.3

1,266.5
1,268.3
1,306.9
1,264.5
1.329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1.570.3

1-94 2-94 3-94
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
February 2, 1995

Fourth quarter data are advance estimates.




1.1
12
0.5
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.6

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94

27

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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