View PDF

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

SEPTEMBER 1996

N ational
Economic
Trends
Looking Hard or
Hardly Working?

CPS, U4 through U6 are only available starting in 1994.
U1 and U2 use^subsets of those unemployed under
the official definition. U1 counts only people unem­
ployed for 15 weeks or more. U2 instead counts only
those who lost jobs or completed temporary jobs. U4
adds discouraged workers to both the numerator (number
unemployed) and the denominator (labor force) of the
official rate, U3. U5 counts all marginally attached
workers (including discouraged workers) as unem­
ployed and in the labor force. U6 is much higher than
the official rate because, in addition to marginally at­
tached workers, it captures some underemployment by
adding employed workers who are working part time
for economic reasons (typically because business is
slow, or they cannot find a full-time job).
A spectrum of alternative rates also is useful for in­
ternational comparisons. Different institutions and cul­
tures cause underutilization to be expressed in different
ways in different countries. Japan, for example, tends to
have very low official unemployment rates, but many
discouraged workers. Therefore rates like U4 through
U6 are more comparable to U.S. rates.
—Joseph A. Ritter

The Current Population Survey (CPS) divides adults
into three categories: employed, unemployed, or not in
the labor force (NILF), according to their activities dur­
ing and before the week containing the 12th of the
month (called the reference week). If the individual
worked during the reference week, he or she is counted
as employed. If not employed, an individual is labeled
unemployed if he or she: (1) was available for work and
searched for work during the four weeks ending with
the reference week; or (2) was awaiting recall from a
temporary layoff. Otherwise the individual is NILF.
Although the survey definitions are unambiguous,
the distinctions are not so clear-cut in economic terms.
First, underutilization of labor may be more pervasive
than the unemployment rate suggests. Some people
searched for work in the last year, but have recently quit
searching. These “marginally attached” workers include
“discouraged workers,” people who quit searching
because they believed further search would be futile.
They are considered NILF. But are they really
Alternative Unemployment Rates
less unemployed than workers who have not
yet given up? Other people may be underem­
ployed for various reasons. On the other hand,
the official definition might be considered too
broad for some purposes, since certain kinds of
unemployment impose more hardship than
others—job losses versus quits, for example.
To illustrate how important these issues are,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes five
alternative unemployment rates that draw the
lines between employed, unemployed, and
NILF in different places. The chart shows
U4 through U6 are seasonally adjusted using the seasonal factors for U3 which shows similar seasonal patterns.
these alternatives. Because of redesign of the

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box for FRASER
Digitized 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve
Economic Data (FRED)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in Th is Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quarter of
1994 to the fourth quarter of 1995. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the top
row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the
right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1994 to III/1995 can be found at the
intersection of the 11/1994 column and the III/1995 row, a 2.3 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from
1/1994 to IV/1995 is 2.4 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95




1-94
4.8
4.2
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.4

2-94
3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0

3-94

3.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.6

4-94

0.6
0.5
1.5
1.3

2

1-95

0.5
2.0
1.5

2-95

3.6
2.0

3-95

0.5

6,581.5
6,639.5
6.691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4
6,768.3
6,776.5

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is chain-weight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3.6

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

6,002.3

1-92

5.9

8.2

2-92
3-92

5.7

6.7

5.4

6.0

5.0

4.6

4-92

5.8

6.3

5.7

5.9

7.3

1-93

5.4

5.8

5.2

5.2

5.5

3.8

2-93

5.5

5.0

3.9

5.3

5.0
4.9

4.9

3-93

5.2
5.1

4.8

4.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4-93

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.2

5.3

4.8

5.1

5.7

7.1

1-94

5.3

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.3

4.9

5.2

5.6

6.2

5.3

2-94

5.5

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.9

6.5
6.4

6.1

5.5

5.2
5.4

5.5

3-94

5.5
5.6

6.1

6.9
6.5

4-94

5.5
5.4

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.8

6.1

5.3

5.3

5.5

6.1
5.8

5.9

5.3

5.3
5.2

5.6

5.5

5.6
5.4

5.5

2-95
3-95

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.1
5.2

5.2

5.2
5.2

5.0
5.1

5.1
5.2

5.2
5.3

5.4
5.4

4-95

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.9

5.0

1-96

5.1

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

2-96

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.1

4,9

5.0

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1-95

6,121.8
5.3

6,201.2
6,271.7

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




6,383.0
6,442.6
4.0

6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6,890.5
6,993.1

6.1

5.5

5.7
5.0

5.3
4.5

5.1
5.2

5.0
5.2

4.6
4.8

4,1

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.4

5.0

4.8

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.0

2-93

3-93

4-93

7,083.2
7,149.8

3.8

7,204.9
7,309.8

4.5

3.5
4.3

3.1
4.5

6.0

4.1
4.1

3.8
3.9

3.8

4.1

2.3

4.4

3.9

4.1

3.2

4.2

4.9

4.7

45

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

5.4

6.7

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

7,350.6
7,426.8
7,547.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92

4-91

1.0
2.8

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

4.7

6,175.3
6,214.2

2.5

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.7
2.9

3.3
2.4

3.7

1-93

3.1
2.6

2.4

4.3
2.1

2-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.0

3-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

4-93

2.7

2,7

2.7

4-92

2,7

6,104.4
3.6
3.4

2-92
3-92

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

6,260.9
6,327.3
-0.1

6,326.4

2.1

0.9
1.4

1.9
2.1

2.3

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.6

6,356.5
6,393.4
4.8

6,469.1

1-94

2.7

2.9
2.9

2.7

2.7

26

2.3

2.9

3.2

3.6

2.5

2-94

3-1
3.1

2.9
3.0

3.0
3.0

2.9
3.0

2.7

3.3

3.6

4.1

3.7

3-94

2.9
3.0

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.9

3.6

4-94

30

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.5

1-95

2.8

3.1
2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.7
3.2

2-95

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.6

2,4

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

3-95

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6
2.7

4-95

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

6,508.5
6,587.6

5.0
4.2

35

3.5
2.9

3.8

3.3

3.0

2.3

1.7

0.4

2.5

1.9

1.4

0.6

0.7

2.7

2.5
2.7

2.3

2.0

1.6

2.3

3.8

2.4

2.4

1.9

1.6

1.3

2.0
2.0

1.1

2.0

2.7 I

2.3

3.4

4.8

3-95

4-95

1-96

6,644.9
3.0

6,693.9
6,701.0

1-96

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.6
1.7

2-96

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.3

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




.

6,713.5

2-95

6,776.4
0.3

6,780.7
6,814.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

6,894.5

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3-91

4-91

2.5
3.0
2.9

3.1

3-92

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.1

1-93

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.3

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.0

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.8

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1.5

4-92

2-93

3.4

2-92

1-93

4-91
1-92

98.304
99.137
2.8

99.813
100.174
100.876

2.8

101.832
102.386

2.2

3-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.0

1.8

4-93

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.3

102.833

1-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.9

2-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5
2.5

2.2
2.2

2.2
2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3
2.3

103.415
104.149

3-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5
2.5

4-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4
2.4

2.5
2.5

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.2
2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.3

2.4
2.3

2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4

2.4
2.4

1-95

2.5

2.5

2.5

2-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

104.632

2.4

1.9
2.1

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.2

105.248
105.802

2.6

2.1
2.7

3.3

2.6
2.5

2.6
2.5

2.9
2.6

2.4
2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

106.676

3-95

2.5

2.5

2.5
2.4

2.4

2.5
2.5

4-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

1-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5
2.4

2-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




107.309
107.855
108.419
109.043

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

109.620

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

4-91

2.9
2.9

3.1

2.4

22
2.7

3.2

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2
2.2

2.0
2.2

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6
2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3
2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5
2.7

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

3-91

4-91

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

1-96

2.4

3-93

4-95

3.6

2.7

3-95

2.8

2.7

2-95

16

2-93

2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6

2.2

4-92
1-93

2.6
2.6
2.8

1-95

2.9

3-92

4-94

3.3

2-92

3-94

2.5

1-92

1992=100
2-94

4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

98.3
99.1
99.8

100.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

2.5

100.9

101.8
102.4
102.9
103.5
104.3
104.8

1.9
2.3

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.6
2.6

105.5

2.8
2.8

2.3
2.9

3.4

2.8

3.0

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.5
2.5

2.6
2.6

2.6
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.8
2.6
2.6
2.6

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

2.7

106.1

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

107.0
107.7

2.4

2.2
2.2

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

108.3
108.9
109.6

110.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4-91

3.7

3-92

3.5
3.3

3.5
3.1

4-92

3.2

3.2

1-93

3.2

2-93

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.7

2-92

2-92

3.6

1-92

1-92

98.007
98.903
3.3

2.8

3.1

3.0
2.9

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.8
2.8

99.703
100.298

2.4
3.2
3.1

2.9

101.097

2.0

2.7

101.817

2.6

102.473
102.792

2.5

2.5

2.2

1.9

1.3

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2
2.2

2.5

2.5

2,3
2.5

22

2.0
2.1
2.1

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.4

2.5

1-95

2.7

2.7

2-95

2.7

2.7

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

3-95

2.6
2,6
2.6
2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4
2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2
2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2
2.1
2.1

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2,4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

3-93

2.9

4-93

2.9

1-94

2.7

3-94

2.8
2.8
2.8

4-94

2.7

2.7

2-94

4-95
1-96
2-96

2.7
2.7

103.483

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3
2.7

2.8

3.4

2.5
2.5

2.7

104.089
2.3

104.675

2.6

2.6

2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4

2.4

2.3
2.4

2.5

2.5
2.5

2.6

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.7

2,7

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1

1.5

2,3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1
2.1

1.9

1.5

1.6

2.0

1.8

2.0

24

2.3 , 2,1 ; 2.4

2.8

3.2

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




2.7

105.549
1.9

106.054
106.739

1-95

107.457

2-95

107.846
108.279
108.911
109.766

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

*

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(C om pound A nnual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

1-95

2.8
3.0

2.8

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982-84=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

2.4

3-95

3-95

3.2

2-95

2-95

150.6
150.9
3.2

151.3

4-95

3.2

3.2

3.6

4.0

5-95

3.2
3.2

3.5
3.4

3.6

6-95

3.2
3.2

3.5

3.2

3.2

7-95

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.5
2.5

2.3
2.3

2.1
2.1

2.0

2.7

2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8

2.0
2.1
2.0

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.0
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6

2.9
3.0

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.7
2.9

2.7
2.9

2.6
2.8

8-95

2.8

2.7

9-95

2.7

10-95

2.8
2.6
2.6
2.8

2.6
2.8
2.6

11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96

2.5

151.8
3.2

2.7

2.4

2.5

2.2

152.2
152.6

0.8
1.6
1.6
2.2
1.9

152.7
2.4

153.0

1.6
2.8
2.1
2.2

153.2
4.0

153.7

2.7

3.0

2.6

2.8

0.8
1.6
2.6
2.6

2.9
3.1

2.9
3.2

3.2
3.4

2.4
2.4

153.8
2.4

154.1

3.6

4.8

3.2

3.6

2.4

3.0
3.3

3.6
3.8

4.0
4.1

3.5
3.9

4.7
4.7

4.7

154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2

5-96

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.4

3.4

3.8

4.1

3.9

4,5

4.3

3.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.1

2.3

0.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8
2.8

3.1

2.9

2.8
2.8

3.0

7-96

2.8
2.8

3.2
2.9

3.2

6-96

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.1

2.6

1.9

3.1

12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96




156.7
156.8
157.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Producer Price Index -

Finished Goods

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

1-95

1.9
1.6

1.4

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.9

1.3

1.2

1.3

0.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.3

-0.9

5-96

6-96

-1.9

7-95

4-96

2.9

6-95

2.1
1.4

3-96

2.9

5-95

2-96

0.9

4-95

1982=100
1-96

1.9

3-95

Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1.9

2-95

7-95

0.0

127.0
127.2
127.3
127.6
127.9
127.7

8-95

1.2

1.1
1.1

0.9

0.9

0.5

-0.3

0.5

0.9

9-95

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.6

2.4

3.8

10-95

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

0.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

1.9

127.7
127.8
128.2
128.4

11-95

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

2.1

2.6

3.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

1.8
2.4

1.6

12-95

2.4

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

2.8
4.4

3.8
5.7

7.7

1-96

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

3.8

4.4

4.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

3.3
2.7

3.8

2-96

2.8
2.4

3.0

2.8

3.1

2.8

0.5

-0.9

3-96

2.3
2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.8

2.5

2.8

6.7

4-96

2.3
2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.6

3.9

4.0

3.0

3.4

5.7

4.7

5-96

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

2.2

3.4

1.9

6-96

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.2

2.3
2.2

3.0

1.9

0.5

1.9

7-96

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.6

1.9

1.9

2.4

1.4

0.3

0.9

0.0

12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96




128.8
129.6
129.8
129.7
130.4
130.9
-0.9

130.8
131.0
131.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(C om pound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4-91

3.7

1-92

3.8
3.4

3.2
3.4

3.0

4-92

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.4

4-93

2-95

3.5

3.5

3.5
3.5

1-95

4.2

2-93
3-93

4-94

3.5

1-93

3-94

2.5

3.4

June 1989=100
2-94

4.0

2-92
3-92

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

111.9
113.0
113.7
3.6

114.7
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
3.4

119.9

1-94

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.0

2-94

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3-94

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

4-94

3.5
3.4

3.5
3.5

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

1-95

3.3

3.3

3.3
3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2-95
3-95

3.3

3.3
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.3
3.2

3.3
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.1
3.1

3.1
3.0

3.0
3.0

3.0
2.9

3.2
3.2

3.1

3.2
3.2

3.2
3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.3

4-95

3.2

1-96

3.2

2-96

3.1

120.8
3.4

121.8
122.8

2.9

2.3
2.6

2.9

3.0
2.9

2.9
2.8

2.7
2.7

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

123.5
124.4
125.3
126.1

2.6

126.9
2.9

127.8

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Data are for the last month of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

9

128.8

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year

Shaded area represents a period ot business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-91

4.6

5.2

3-92

3.9
2.7

3.2

0.8

3.3

3.8

2.4

2.4

1-93

2.1
1.6

2.3

0.9

0.4

1.6

0.4

-0.1

1.0
0.1

3-93

1.5

1.5

0.5

0.1

4-93
1-94

1.7

1.8

0.9

1.3

1.4

0.6

2-94

1.3

1.3

3-94

1.4

4-94
1-95

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

5.7

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

-0.8

4-92

2-93

8.0

2-92

1-93

1.2

1-92

4-92

2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

97.4
99.3
2.4

99.9
99.7

101.1
100.2

-3.5

0.3

-2.6
-1.4

-1.6
-0.4

0.7

1.0

-0.2

0.9

0.3

0.5

-0.6

0.5

0.3

-0.4

1.4

0.7

0.5

0.5
0.7

1.3

1.3

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.0
0.0

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1

1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1

0.5

0.3

0.4

-0.2

0.2
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.2

0.6

0.4

0.5

3-91

4-91

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.6
0.6

0.0
0.2
0.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.7

0.5

0.6

1-92

2-92

3-92




0.4

99.8

0.8
2.2
0.8

100.0
3.6

0.8

-2.0

0.7

0.7

1.0
0.9

1.1
1.0

-0.8
0.3

1.4

0.4

0.5

0.3
-0.2

1.1

0.5

0.3

0.3

-0.8

-2.0

0.7

0.7

0.2

O.C

0.7

0.1

0.0

0.9

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.9

0.6
0.6
4-94

100.9
100.4
0.4
1.4

100.5

101.1
101.2

2.4

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.8
0.8

0.8
0.8

0.5

0.3

0.6
0.6

0.8
0.6
0.8

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.6
0.6

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

100.7

2.0
1.8
1.1

101.2
101.6
-0.4

1.3

1.6
0.6
1.1

1.1

0.9

1-95

2-95

101.5

0.7

2.0
1.2

0.4

3-95

4-95

1-96

0.8

102.0
102.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987 = 100

1987 = 100

1990
1991
1992
1993
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

1-95
2-95

1,3
-0.2

0.4

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1987=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

-0.9

3-95

3-95

3.3

1.2

2-95

121.816
121.720

121.888

1.7

-1.4

-1.6

-4.8

-1.2

-1.2

*2.7

6-95

-0.3
-0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-1.5

0.2

0.9

7-95

0.0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.9

0.4

0.8

0.7

8-95

1.5

3.3

4.5

6.4

12.3

1.5
0.7

1.6
1.6

1.6

9*95

1.2
1.2

1.5

2.9

3.7

4.6

6.7

0.4

0.5

0.4

1.3

2.2

-2.6

-6.3

1.0
1.1

0.9

1.7

-0.3
0.3

-1.1

1.8
1.2

2.3
2.3

2.7

1.5
3.4

1.7

2.0

1.0
0.6
2.0

1.6
2.1
2.1

1.8

0.8

-0.3
2.4

1.4

1.4

2.0
2.3

4-95
5-95

10-95

1-96

1.0
1.1
0.8

2-96

1.9

3-96
4-96

1.4
1.9

5-96
6-96

2.1

0.6
1.8
1.2
1.8
2.1

2.4

2.4

7-96

2.4
12-94

11-95
12-95

0.9

0.7

121.388
-0.5

121.339

1.5

2.7

3.1

2.2

2.0

2.0
2.6

121.434
121.507

2.6

122.690
1.3

122.821
122.159

-0.0

4.3
3.2

122.587

2.2

-0.7

1.2

-0.4

*2.8

122.809
122.515

2.6
1.2

5.0

5.2

6.8

17.3

2.8

2.4

2.4

3.9

3.8

2.5
4.2

5.3
6.7

-5.5

3.3

1.2
2.2

1.8

9.6

3.8

2.6

2.9

2.4
3.1

124.157
123.576
124.519

2.3
2.7

2.9
3.2

3.2

3.4

3.6

2.7

2.9

4.7

6.7

3.4

3.7

4.0

3.2

3.4

4.8

5.2

6.9

4.5

8.1
8.0

6.6

3.5

4.3
4.7

4.3

7.2

7.8

2.4

2.6
2.6

2.6

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.1

3.3

4.4

4.4

4.7

6.0

3.9

6.4

5.3

4.7

1.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96




125.186
125.973
126.151

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions of Persons

Percent

Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
com parable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(C om pound A nnual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

1-95
2-95

1.7

2.1

4-95

0.9

1.0

0.4

-0.2
-0.2

-0.9

6-95

0.0
-0.0

-0.8

-2.4
-1.7

«3.5
-1.9

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

1.1

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

-0.3

7-95

2-96

-1.3

5-95

of Persons
1-96

2.0

3-95

7-95

0.7
1.4

6-95

Thousands
Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

124,671
124,881
2.2

125,106
124,973
124,598
124,566
2.6

124,832

8-95

0.3

0.3

-0.0

-0.5

-0.3

0.8

1.4

0.3

9-95

0.5

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

1.1

1.5

1.0

1.7

10-95

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

1.2

1.6

1.3

1.9

124,859
125,036
2.0

125,244

11-95

0.4

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.7

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.1

-1.7

12-95

0.3

0.3

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.3

-0.2

-1.3

-0.8

1-96
2-96

0.5
0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.8

-0.1

0.8

2.4

0.6

0.5

0.7

1.1

0.6
1.1

0.5

0.7

0.9
1.3

0.3
0.7

3-96

1.0

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.6

4-96

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8
0.7

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

2.0

2.7

5-96

1.1
1.1

1.0
1.0

0.9
1.0

1.1
1.1

1.5
1.5

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

2.3
2.1

2.9

6-96

1.1
1.1

2.6

7-96

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.6

1.7

16

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.6

12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96




125,062
124,981
125,226

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.9

3.3

4.3

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.6

3.8

4.5

12

125,663

2.8

4.8
2.1

-0.5

3.0

2.6

1.5

2.7

2.3

1.5

2.5

1.4

2.7

2.3

1.8

2.5

2.0

2.6

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

126,151
126,095
3.5

126,462
126,610
126,884

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(C om pound A nnual Rates of C hange)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-95

3.1
2.7

2.4

4-95

2.5

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.1

7-95

1.9

8-95

2.1
2.0

1.2
1.2
1.6
1.6

Thousands
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

0.5

6-95

2.1
2.1

Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1.7

5-95

7-95

2.6

3-95

6-95

3.5

2-95

5-95

9-95

116,250

1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8

10-95

1.9

1.7

11-95

1.9

1.7

12-95

1.9

1-96

1.7

2-96

2.0

3-96
4-96

1.9

5-96

2.1
2.1
2.1

1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0

12-94

1-95

6-96
7-96

1.9

116,502

2.1

116,701

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.7
1.7

1.6
1.6

1.6
1.6

1.5
1.5

116,861
116,907

2.0

117,100

2.0
1.8

1.0
2.1
1.8

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.9

1.8
1.1
2.0

1.5

117,201
3.1

2.2

117,499
1.3

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6
1.8

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.8
1.8
1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0

1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0

1.9

1.7

2.1
2.1
2.1

2.1
2.1
2.1

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2

1.6
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95




117,623
117,749
117,899

1.9

2.0
1.1
2.1
2.0
2.0

22

2.3

2.5

2.5

3.2

1.6
1.8
2.6

2.2
2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

3.0

2.5

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.9

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

1.9

2.4
0.9

118,136
-0.7

118,070

2.3

2.3

5.3

2.1
2.1

2.1
2.0

3.4
2.9

118,579
118,737
1.9

118,928

3.1

4.2
3.2

2.4

2.8
2.6

2-96

3-96

119,335

2.8

2.2
2.1

2.0

4-96

5-96

6-96

119,555
119,748

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94
1-95

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

6.6

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
6-96

4,902.7

2-95

3.1

-0.2

3-95

0.5

1.3

4-95

2.5
0.0

-2.1

-3.0

-7.0

5-95

1.7

0.5

0.8

0.5

4,901.7
4*906.9
4,877.1
8.7

4,911.3

6-95

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.1

7.1

5.4

7-95

27

2.0

2.5

2.8

6.3

5.1

4,933.0
4.8

4,952.4

8-95

2.3

1.7

2.0

2.1

4.6

3.2

2.1

-0.5

9-95

2.7

2.2

2.6

2.8

4.9

4.0

3.5

2.9

10-95

2.9

2.4

2.8

3.0

4.8

4.0

3.7

3.3

5.2

4.1

11-95

3.0

2.7

3.0

3.2

4.7

4.1

3.8

50

3.3

3.0

3.3

3.5

4.9

4.4

4.2

5.3

4.3
4.9

4.5

12-95

3.6
4.1

5.3

6.1

1-96

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

4.0

3.4

2.9

3.6

2.9

2.5

1.5

3.2

3.9

3.4

3.2

2.8

1.1

5.4

2.8

3.3

2.8

2.5

2.0

0.7

2.6

-0.1

2-96

3.0

2.7

2.9

3.1

4.2

3.7

3.2
3.4

3-96

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.8

3.3

3.0

4,950.3
6.4

4,975.8
4,992.4
5,010.8
5,035.6
-2.9

5,023.1
5,045.2
5,044.7

4-96

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.8

2.6

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.6

0.9

0.4

-0.4

-2.0

-1.7

-5.0

-9.7

5-96

2.7

2.7

2.8

3.6

3.1

2.9

2.7

3.1

2.7

2.5

2.2

2.6

16

2.5

16.4

5,001.9

6-96

3.1

2.5
2.9

3.1

3.2

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.4

3.4

3.2

1.4
2.7

3.9

3.5

4.8

12.9

9.5

7-96

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.6

3.3

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.1

3.0

2.5

3.2

7.9

3.9

-1.3

12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96




14

5,065.6
5,103.9
5,098.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84 = 100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-94

1-95

1-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

10.3

2-95

2-95

Billions of
Initial Month
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

-2.7 -14.2

128.218
126.597

0.3

4-95

-1.1

-4.6

0.6

-5.1

5-95

1.2
2.1
1.2

-1.0

3.8

2.4

0.5

4.6

-0.3

2.8

6-95

-4.3

6.7

3-95

7-95

1982-84
Dollars

127.280
126.727

3.9

10.5
8.7

7.0

1.8

4.2

1.2

127.788
128.510
-4.3

128.037

8-95

1.7

0.5

3.1

2.5

4.4

2.5

0.3

5.1

9-95

1.2

0.2

2.4

1.7

3.1

1.3

-0.5

•1.5

-2.0

10-95

0.4

-0.6

0.5

1.5

-0.3

-2.0

-1.2

-4.2

-6.4

11-95

1.3

0.4

1.2
2.2

1.7

2.7

1.4

0.3

1.5

0.3

1.5

12-95

0.8

2.5

2.0

2.9

1.9

1.1

2.7

7.5

5.0

0.4

1.8

1.4

2.1

1.1

0.3

2.2
1.1

1.5

1-96

1.6
1.1

0.3

0.8

3.4

-4.4

2-96

2.7

3.4

4.3

3.6

3.2

4.3

4.2

5.4

8.6

9.7

26.0

3.4

3.1

3.9

3.3

2.9

3.8

3.6
2.4

4.6

6.9

6.5

12.4

0.3

4-96

2.6
2.0

2.2
2.0

3.7

3-96

0.2
8.1
6.1

3.0

4.7

3.7

3.3

-5.6

2.3

3.4

4.9

4.0

3.8

6.0
6.0

-2.7

5-96

0.1

-0.0

5.9

2.2

3.3

2.4

1.9

3.3

-1.8

-2.4

-0.8

-7.1

1.7

2.7

1.8

1.3

2.3

-1.8

-2.4

-1.3

-4.7

-2.2

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

128.573

1.5

2.7

2.4

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.3

2.7

2.3

3.0

2.3

2.0

2.5

1.9

1.5

2.1

2.8
1.8

2.0

1.7

2.2

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.4

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

6-96

1.7

7-96

1.5

1.8
1.2
1.0

12-94

1-95

128.358
127.647

10.2

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




-•¿ r

128.683
129.204
128.719
131.221
131.252
130.622
131.250
130.450

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

130.209

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April
May
June

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
3126.01
390.72
3343.38
406.21
3565.75
432.34

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
267.92
2072.55
2227.76
290.60
2341.76
302.88

Total Business (3)
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
7139.15
874.52
7648.54
931.70
8160.79
989.84

296.88
293.90
299.81
300.75
299.82
300.76
301.28

424.29
426.72
427.25
429.96
431.30
431.65
432.34

196.11
195.51
196.72
196.64
196.19
197.91
199.10

300.37
299.04
302.70
303.30
306.22
307.27
302.88

681.34
676.57
684.48
686.27
685.66
690.24
695.29

973.91
977.66
982.15
986.37
992.27
993.64
989.84

298.69
301.76
300.65
308.00
311.20
308.18

434.72
435.62
435.41
435.44
434.22
434.13

199.13
203.39
204.23
204.03
205.67
204.55

304.37
304.82
302.15
303.40
303.93
304.62

690.69
699.21
700.25
709.54
715.13
711.53

995.35
996.01
994.01
998.43
996.98
997.49

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

-0.1
3.0

2-92

2.6

4.0

2.7

3.6

2.4

3.1
2.4

3.9

3.1

3.8

1-93

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

3.0

4-92

4-92

1.8

3-92

3-92

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

6.2

4-91

1-93

1-92

2-92

3-91

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

6,083.8

2.9

6,175.8

2.1

6,203.8
6,249.5
6,320.7

4.6
1.9

0.4

6,307.1
6,334.5

1.7

2-93

2.3

2.7

2.1

3-93

2.3

2.7

2.1

2.1
2.2

1.8
1.9

1.1

2.0

2.3

4-93

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.0

3.0

N
to

2.2

-0.9

6,371.3
6,449.2

5.0

1-94

2.5

2.8

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.8

3.0

1.2

2-94

2.5

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.0

3.0

6,467.7

3-94

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.9

3.1

3.3

2.8

3.6

4.2

4-94

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

3.0

3.2

3-3

2.9

3.5

1-95

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.8

3.8
2.7

6,514.9
6,582.1
3,4
2.0

6,638.1
0.6

6,647.4

1.3

6,682.4

2-95

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

3-95

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3
2.4

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.0
2.4

2.1

2.8

3.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.S

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.3

2.5

2.1

6,741.4
6,764.2

4-95

2.5

1-96

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.5

2.7

1.4
2.2

2-96

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.9

3.1

29

3.6

4.2

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




17

6,815.2

3.1

6,886.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)

Real GDP

2nd
4.79

1996
1st
2.00

4th
0.25

1995
3rd
3.80

2nd
0.75

1st
0.42

Final Sales

4.25

3.04

1.35

3.56

2.11

0.56

3.41

4.14

Change in Business
Inventories

0.60

-1.03

-1.08

0.15

-1.42

-0.10

-0.50

-0.61

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

2.31

2.36

0.72

1.64

2.11

0.65

2.10

1.88

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

1.05
0.44
0.60

1.47
1.20
0.28

0.50
0.25
0.24

0.85
0.51
0.34

-0.23
0.36
-0.56

1.19
1.48
-0.26

1.14
1.16
0.00

1.18
1.28
-0.08

Government Expenditures
Federal
State and Local

1.48
0.70
0.77

0.30
0.40
-0.11

-0.81
-0.96
0.17

-0.10
-0.41
0.31

0.14
-0.10
0.24

-0.23
-0.49
0.27

-0.28
-0.45
0.18

1.31
0.82
0.48

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-0.66
0.56
-1.21

-1.12
0.21
-1.33

0.99
1.19
-0.21

1.18
1.18
0.01

0.07
0.65
-0.58

-1.08
0.28
-1.37

0.45
1.70
-1.23

-0.27
1.01
-1.26

Residual (2)

-0.02

0.04

-0.06

0.04

0.06

-0.02

0.04

0.00

1994
4th
2.98

3rd
3.52

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth In each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

-1.0
2.7
2.5

4.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

4-91

1-93

2-93

4-94

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

6.4

2-92

1-92

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

4,109.1
4,173.8
2.2

4,196.4

3-92

2.6

3.8

2.6

2.9

4-92

3.1

4.2

3.5

4.1

5.4

1-93

2.7

3.5

2.8

3.0

3.0

2-93

2.7

2.9

2.9

1.7

2.7

2.9

3.4
3.4

2.8

3-93

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.4

3.3

3.8

4-93

2.9

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.8

1-94

2.9

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.0

3.3
3.2

2.8

2.8

2-94

2.9

3.3

3.0

3.1

2.7

3.1

3.3

3.0

3.0

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.2
3.0

3.5

2.9

3.2
3.1

3.0

3-94

3.1
3.1

3.1

2.8

4-94

3.3
3.1

3.0

3.1
2.9

3.1

2.8

3.1
2.9

2.8

1-95

2.9
2.8

2.6

2.8

3.1
2.8

3.0
2.7

3.1
2.6

3.1
2.6

3.0
2.3

3.1
2.0

1.0

2-95
3-95

2.8
2.8

3.1
3.0

2.8
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.6
2.6

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.7
2.7

2.7
2.7

2,7

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4

2.0
2.2

CO

4-95

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

1.9
2.2

1.1

2.8

2.1
2.4

1.7

2.8

2.2
2.4

2.2

2.7

2.6
2.7

2.4

2.9

2.6
2.7

2.5

2.7

2.5
2.6

2.5

1-96

2.5

2.3

2.3

4,226.7
4,282.3
4,289.7

0.7
4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0

4,420.5

2.6

4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
2.8

4,569.9
4,597.3

2.4

4,609.4
4,649.1

3.5

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.8

2,7

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.4

3.4

3-91

2-96

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

18

4,688.1

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4-91
1-92

14.6
19.6
20.5

23.5

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96
202.4

24.7

2-92

1-92

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

213.9
224.9
226.7

22.2

3-92

15.9

16.3

12.3

3.2

4-92

16.9

14.5

10.8

18.8

1-93

16.5
13.9

13.8

11.2

7.8

10.1

2.0

2-93

11.0

10.4

7.7

4.4

4.8

-1 6

236.7
237.9
234,8

-5.1

242.2

3-93

11.3

10.8

8.6

6.1

6.8

3.1

3.6

13.2

4-93

12.7

12.4

10,8

9.0

10.1

8.1

10.2

18.7

24.4

255.8
263.6

1-94

12.7

12.5

11.0

9.5

10.6

9.0

10.8

16.7

18.5

12.8

2-94

12.7

11.2

9.6

11.2

15.7

16.5

12.7

11.4

9.8

9.9
8.5

10.9

3-94

12.5
11.1

9.2

7.9

8.9

11.9

11.6

7.6

5.1

-1 9

4-94

10.5
9.2

10.1

8.9

7.6

8.1

6.9

9.8
7.4

9.2
6.4

5.7

3.4

-1.0

3.1

0.9

-2.8

4.5

3.3

-2.2
-0.4

-5.6
-2.8

1-95

8.8

7.5

6.3

6.6

5.3

7.6
5.7

4.5

4.6

3.3

3.4

271.6

12.7

270.3
0.0
-3.2

270.3
-6.4

265.9

-6.7 -10,0 -13.4

256.5
262.2

2-95

7.5

3-95

7.6

7.0
7.1

5.7
6.0

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.0

5.0

4.0

0.2
1.4

-3.0

-4.0

-2.8

9.2

4-95

7.5

7.1

6.0

4.9

5.1

4.0

4.2

5.2

4.3

2.0

0.6

-1.3

-1 2

-1.5

0.2

7.8

6.4

1-96

7.5

7.1

6.1

5.1

5.2

4.3

4.5

5.4

4.6

2.6

1.4

-0.1

0.2

0.2

2.0

7.7

6.9

7.4

2-96

7.9

7.6

6.7

5.8

5.9

5.1

5.3

6.2

5.6

3.9

2.9

1.8

2.3

27

4.6

9.7

9.8

11.6

15.9

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

266.3
271.1
281.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

539.5

4-91

-4.2

1-92

-0.3

3.7

2-92

6.8

10.0

3-92

3.0
2.8

5.2

6.0

2.2

4-92

3.5

5.5

4.2

544.4
557.5
560.6
6.2

1-93

3.9

5.6

6.1
6.1

4.8

6.1

6.0

2-93

4.2

5.7

6.1

5.2

6.2

6.2

569.1
577.5
6.3

586.4

3-93

4.3

5.6

5.9

5.1

5.8

5.7

5.5

4.6

4-93
1-94

5.7

7.0

7.5

7.1

8.1

8.5

9.4

10.9

17,6

5.8

7.0

7.4

7.1

7.9

8.3

8.8

9.7

12.3

7.2

2-94

6.0

7.0

7.4

7.1

7.8

8.1

8.5

9.1

10.6

7.2

593.1
617.6
628.5
7.2

639 5

3-94

6.6

7.6

8.0

7.8

8.5

8.9

9.4

10.0

11.4

9.4

10.4

13.8

4-94

7.0

8.0

8.4

8.3

8.9

9.8

10.3

11.5

10.1

13.0
13.8

12.1
13.7

15.3

11.1

10.2

9.3

3.5

10.4

11.0

12.1

11.1

10.1

10.9

9.8

10.3

8.9

9,6
9.2

9.5

10.1

9.1

9.4

9.8

8.9

7.8

4.2

8,3

8.5

8.8

9.2

8.2

8.4

8,6

7.5

6.4

3.6

3.6

2.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

8.2

7.4

5.6

6.2

6.9

8.2

8.4

8.6

9.0

8.1

8.2

8.4

7.6

6.9

5,2

5.7

6.0

7.8

4.0

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-95

4-95

1-96

1-95

7.6

8.6

9.0

8.9

9.6

2-95

7.3

8.5
8.3

8,4

9.0

9.3

8.1

8.6

7.9

7.7
8.0

8.2
8.4
8.1

3-95

7.2

8.2
8.0

4-95
1-96

6.9

7.6

7.1

7.8

8.1

2-96

7.0

7.6

7.9

7.7

1-92

2-92

4-91

3-92

4-92

1-93

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




660.5

110
12.1

9.3
9.9

3-91

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

3-94

679.7

4-94

704.4

1-95

710.5
719.0

4.9

2-95

723.3
743.5

11.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

19

750.9

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91

0.5
0.3
0.9

11
1.7
17

1.5

2.4

1-93

0.4

-0.1

0.0

2-93

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.5

-0.0
0.2

0.1

3-93
4-93

0.4

0.6

0.3

1-94

-0.1

0.1

-0.2

2-94

-0.2

-0.0

3-94

0.4

0.6

4-94
1-95

03
0.2

2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

2.9

1.1
0.1

2-93

-0.3
1.3

1-93

2.5

2-92

4-92

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates

-1.4

1-92

3-92

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3-92
4-92

1250.7
1258.5
1257.5
1266.5
1.9
-1.4

1272.5
-4.6

1257.7

-0.9
-0.4

-2.2
-1.1

0.2
0.6

1.0

0.5
-0.2

-0.0

-0.5

0.9

12

1.5

-0.7

-1.3

-0.4

-0.6

-1.5

-4.3

-0.3
0.4

-0.3

00
9

-1.2

-0.7

-1.2

0.2

-0.1

0.8

0.8

-2.6
0.5

-0.8

0.5

-0.5
0.7

3.0

7.0

0.4
0.3

0.2

0.0

0,4
0.2

0.3
0.1

1.5
0.8

-1,4

0.2

0.0
-0.2

2.7

-0.1

-0.2
-0.3

0.4

0.1

03
0.2

1.4

-1.3

-1.2

0.2

0.3

0,2

0.2

Ö
o

-0.2

0.8

1.2

«0.6

-0.2

0.8

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.3
0.2

-0.1

0.3

0.3
0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.0

-0.2

•0.2

«0.4

«
Ö

-0.4

-0.7

«0,1

«0.0

-1.4

-1.3

-1 4

-2.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0,6
-0.4

-0.2

-0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-1.1

0.3

1258.4
1261.6
1266.2
1252.4
1249.8
1271.2
1266.6
1262.7
1265.1
1263.4
«4,3
-1.4

1249.6
1254.7

1.6

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.4

1.0

1.2

0.4

0.7

1.1

1.2

1.7

4.9

8.2

3-91

2-96

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1279.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
526.9

4-91

-6.8

1-92

-4.1

-1.4

2-92

-3.2

-1.4

-1 4

3-92

-1.2

0.7

1.7

4.9

4-92
1-93

-0.3

2.3
-1.7

41

-2.5

1.3
-1.6

2-93

-2.9

-2.2

-2.4

3-93

-2.9

-2.3

4-93

«2.6

1-94

525.1
523.3
529.6
534.0
516.1

3.4

-1.8

-5.0 -12.7
-5.0

-8.9

-4.9

-2.5

-2.6
-2.7

-4.5

-7.0

-3.9

-2.9

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-3.7

-5.4

-2.9

-1.8

«0.7

-3.6

-3.2

-3.4

-3.7

-5.1

-6.7

-5.1

-5.1

-6.2 -11.4

2-94

-3.7

-3.4

-3.6

-3.9

-5.1

-5.1

-5.2

-5.9

-8.4

-5.3

3-94

-2.5

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-3.2

-6.4
-4.1

-2.5

-2.0

-1.8

-2.2

2.8

11.6

4-94

-2 8

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

2.5

-5.9

-3.0

-3.5

-3.3

-3.3

-3.1
-3.8

-0.2

-2.8

-4.3
-4.5

-2.7

-3.1

-3.5
-3.8

-3.0

1-95

-2.5
-2.9

-1.8

-0.6

-6.2

2-95

-2.9

-2.7

00

-3.1

-2.9

-3.0

-3.6
-3.7

-4.2
-4.4

-3.2

3-95

-2.9
-3.1

4-95
1-96

-3.7

-3.5

-3.7

-4,5

-3.2

-3.0

-3.1

-3.8
-3.2

-3.8

2-96

-2.5

-2.3

-2.3

-2.4

-2.9

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

509.7
505.9
505.0
489.9

-6.5

481.0
479.4

-4.6
-4.9

-4.0
-4.5

-3.5

-3,8

-6.6

-6.7

-3.8

-4,0
-2.8

-2.4

-4.6

-4.3

-6.8
-3.8

-2.4

-1.4

-0.9

-2.5

-2.0

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

-3.4

6

-0.8
-1.8

-3.0
-3.4

-4.4

-4.5

-5.0

-4.3

-3.6

-4.3
-3.4

-3.5

-3.3

«2.5

-2.3

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

-3.7

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




496.7
489.2

-1.7
-2.4

-3.0
-3.3

-3.5

483.3

-1.3

472.5

-5.6
«9.4 -13.1

456.2
462.9

-4.6

-4.0

6.0

-1,0

-1.0

0.6

8.3

10.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

20

474.8

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates

623.5
633.0
635.8
639.7
649.1
647.1
660.0
645.5
680.3
677.6
703.1
719.6
747.6
752.3
763.2
783.0
803.1
806.7
816.2

Initial Quarter

3-91
13.9
10.0
72
6.0
6.0
4.7
5.2
3.4
5.5
4.7
5.7
6.0
6.8
6.5

4-91

1-92

2-92

6.5
6.7
7.0
6.7
6.6

6.2
4.0
3.5
4.1
3.0
3.9
2.0
4.5
3.8
4.9
5.4
6.2
5.9
5.9
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.2

1.8
2.1
3.4
2.2
3.4
13
4.2
3.5
4.8
5.3
6.2
5.9
5.9
6.3
6.6
6.2
6.2

5.2
5.7
6.7
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.9
6.6
64

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

2.5
4.2
2.4
3.8
1.2
4.6
37

3-92

6.0
2.3
4.3
0.9
5.0
3.9
5.5
6.1
7.2
6.7

4-92

1-93

2-93

6.6
7.0
7.3
6.9
6.7

-1.2
3.4
-0.7
4.8
35
5.5
61
7.3
6.8
6.7
7.1
7.4
6.9
6.8

8.2
-0.5
6.9
4.7
6.9
7.3
8.6
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.2
7.6
7.4

-8.5
6.2
3.6
6.5
7.2
8.7
7.8
7.5
7.9
8.2
7.6
7.3

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

23.4
10.2

4-93

12.1
11 5
12.5
10.7

-1.6
6.8
7.8
9.9
8.4

10.0
10.1
10.2
9.3
8.9

8.0
8.4
8.7
7.9
7.6

3-93

4-93

1-94

15.9
12.8
14.0
11.0
10.0
10.1
10.2
9.1
8.6
1-94

2-94

3-94

9.7
13.1
9.4
8.5
9.0
9.3
8.2
7.7

16.5
9.3
8.2
8.8
92
7.9
7.5

2-94

3-94

4-94

2.5
4.2
6.4
7.4
6.3
6.0
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

5.9
8.3
9.1
7.2
6.7

10.8
10.7
7.7
6.9

10.7
6.1
5.7

1.8
3.3

4.8

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-91
1-92

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter

3-91
5.1
4.6
7.4
5.9
7.0
7.2
8.0
7.5
8.5
8.5
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.7

4-91

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

4-91

13.3
7.1

668.3
670.5

10.5
10.5
10.1
9.3
8.8
8.9
8.9

1.3
6.3
7.0
8.4
7.5
9.1
9.0
10.1
102
10.2
10.3
9.8
9.0
8.5
8.6
8.7

11.6
10.0
10.9
9.1
10.8
10.3
11.4
11.3
11.2
11.2
10.6
9.7
9.0
9.1
9.2

8.4
10.5
8.3
10.5
10.1
11.4
11.3
11.2
11.2
10.5
9.5
8.8
9.0
9.0

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

8.6
8.5
9.4
8.5
9.7
9.5
10.5
10.5

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




689.1
12.7
8.3
11.3
10.5

703.1
724.4
731.7
761.8
777.0
810.4
831.3
851.9
874.9

*

12.0
11.8
11.6
11.6
10.7
9.6
8.9
9.0
9.0

4.1
10.6
9.8
11.9
11.6
11.4
11.4
10.5
9.3
8.5
8.7
8.7

17.5
12.8
14.6
13.6
12.9
12.7
11.5
9.9
9.0
9.1
9.2

8.2
13.2
12.3
11.8
11.7
10.5
8.9
8.0
8.3
8.4

18.3
14.5
13.1
12.6
10.9
9.0
7.9
8.3
8.4

10.7
10.5
10.8
9.2
7.3
6.3
6.9
7.2

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

"

10.3
10.8
6.4
5.4
6.3
6.7

11.2
7.8
5.1
4.2
5.5
6.1

2.0
4.1

-0.0
0.8
4.0

5.1

3-94

4-94

1-95

to

9.3
8.7
8.3
8.4
8.5

647.8

CO

2-96

2-92

641.4
4.1
8.6
6.1
7.4
7.6
8.5
7.8
9.0
8.9
9.8
9.9
9.9
10.0
9.6
8.9
8.5
8.6
8.6

3-91

2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

1-92

4.5
2.2

5.3

1.6
6.0
7.1

10.0

9.4

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

10.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

884.6
884.5
888.0
910.7
931.4

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 1 months.
1
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

3-94

204,934
47,983

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

177,075
37,212

Imports
Goods and Services
-229,286
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -48,378

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
-45,000

-211,472
-42,462

-205,522
-38,801

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Balance on Current Account

-35,588

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

-40,011

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-55,732
17
-55,801

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

-25,569
-165
-25,116

98,816
51,582
47,234

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421
37,380
78,041

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

83,619
19,785
63,834

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

2 0 1------

----- r 20

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
981.0
951.8
962.4
954.6

Billion
-72.3
-28.0
-24.9
17.5

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-62.6
-83.0
-96.2
-111.0

Percent
-1.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

1013.5
991.3
1003.8
1018.3

15.0
14.4
14.4
14.4

20.8
74.1
51.1
52.4

0.3
1.1
0.7
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-106.5
-129.7
-150.6
-158.9

-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.2

1995: 1
2
3
4

1043.8
1018.5
1085.9
1138.9

14.6
14.1
14.9
15.5

71.2
84.4
82.7
81.7

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-146.2
-150.8
-138.1
-110.2

-2.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.5

1996: 1
2

1133.8
1120.9

15.3
14.9

84.1
118.5

1.1
1.6

1068.9
1097.0

14.4
14.5

228.8
235.4

3.1
3.1

-129.9
-144.0

-1.7
-1.9

Percent
15.2
14.6
14.6
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Net
Foreign
Investment

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. Investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
273.4
258.3
223.8
278.0

-3.0

3.4

10.4

14.6

8.8

15.8

38.2
38.7

5.2
15.8

4-93
1-94

15.2

16.4

11.6

18.0

36.8

19.1

7.5

7.6

2.7

6.5

18.4

3.0

2-94

13.6

14.3
13.9

10.4

27.3
25.0

14.7

10.3

15.0
14.4
13.9
10.8

23.1
18.6

275.9
285.2

14.2
26.5

40.1

27.5
4.5

34.8 29.6
1.5 -13.7 ■
42.5

18.6
17.1

19.7

13.4
9.7

15.9

14.0

310.3
331.1
288.3

13.6
12.7

6.4

96.9

7.6

47.1

10.0

11.9

7.9

33.1

9.5

11.5

16.2
11.1

6.8

2.8

18.9

0.5

10.5
14.7

6.8
11.8

3.4
9.5

16.3
21.9

19
10.8

17.7

341.5

3-94

13.3

4-94

12.9
10.6

13.5
11.0

10.2
7.8

2-95
3-95

10.3
12.7

10.6

7.7

10.5

17.4

9.4

13.1

10.5

13.3

20.1

12.9

10.9
14.6

4-95

12.2

12.6

18.9

12.2

13.7

13.7

11.1

9.0

194

9.8

12.7

13.1

10.2
10.8

12.7

1-96

13.2

19.0

12.9

14.3

14.3

12.0

10.2

19.5

11.3

2-96

12.3

12.6

10.4

12.7

18.1

12.3

13.6

13.5

114

9.7

17.8

10.5

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

1-95

3-94

244.4

56.6
9.9 11.7 -20.3
-7.0 -11.1 -33.0 -43.6
12.2 13.7
2.2 15.8 138.1
0.9
9.2 52.0
9.5 10.2
10.8

3-93

2-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

6.3
29.0

1Q.2
13.5

2-93

1-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

349.7
9.0

357.3
342.7

-4.0 -15.4
•0.6
11.0

-5.1
11.7

6.5
28.3

348.1
388.1

9.8

10.0

201

27.5

5.3

11.5

12.0

20.2

25.1

12.6

20.4

10.6

10.9

17.0

19.8

10.1

12.6

5.2

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

54.5

393.1
411.8
417.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

1993: 1
2
3
4

427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8

275.9
285.2
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

509.8
519.2
524.9
553.6

1994: 1
2
3
4

459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9

288.3
341.5
349.7
357.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

543.2
574.8
590.9
600.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

617.3
617.0
625.8
630.8

1996: 1
2

645.1
653.8

411.8
417.1

239.9
243.1

465.6
470.6

-17.4
-13.0

20.4
22.7

654.8
657.6

Net
Cash Flow

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1990
1991
National income accounts basis

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Governm ent Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors

Gross
Federal
Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal
Debt

1993: March
June
September
December

4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

2875.4
2949.9
2993.0
3046.4

562.1
570.9
593.8
619.2

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.1
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.2
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.3
657.9
684.4

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.8

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.8
790.0
850.8
856.3

1996: March

5125.8

1378.7

3748.1

387.8

3360.4

925.8

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal

Federal, State and Local

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1509.7
1521.5
1534.7
1557.7

-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.9
2138.5
2154.5
2175.4

-204.0
-161.0
-159.5
-118.3

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.6
1552.5
1575.7
1606.4

-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.2
2193.5
2232.2
2275.2

-117.9
-64.4
-88.9
-90.7

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1621.9
1644.3
1645.0
1649.3

-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.0
2328.7
2348.8
2365.0

-73.7
-62.1
-64.6
-66.4

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1
2

1523.1
1572.5

1678.3
1703.5

-155.2
-131.0

2338.5
2399.0

2402.7
2429.1

-64.3
-30.1

207.6
219.3

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

Grants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.2

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.4

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.9

-255.6

1994

1257.7

1460.8

-203.1

1377.0

1567.3

-190.2

1995

1355.2

1519.1

-163.9

1478.4

1640.1

-161.7

_

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3,0

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-94

2-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1,160.9

1-92

55

8.0

2-92
3-92

4.7
3.0

5.6
3.0

0.6

-2.0

4-92

5.4

5.3

6.4

15.5

1-93

4.2

6.0
4.4

3.5

3.6

6.5

-1.7

2-93

5.8

6.2

5.9

6.6

9.6

6.7

15.9

3-93

5.4

5.8

5.4

5.8

7.9

5.4

9.2

2.9

4-93

6.4

6.8

6.6

72

9.2

7.6

10.9

8.5

1,183.4
1,193.1

3.3
1,187.0

1,230.5
1,225.2
1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4

14.5

1-94

5.6

59

5.7

60

7.4

59

79

53

6.6

-0.8

2-94

7.2
6.7

7.2

7.7

66

6.9

9.1
81

8.1
71

10.2
86

8.8
7.2

10.8
83

9.0
6.4

19.7

3-94

6,9
6.4

10 1

1.2

4-94

6.6

6.8

71

8.2

7.5

8.4

7.0

73

8.3

8.8

7.8

86

6.9
7.5

9.6
9.6

4.9
6.5

8.7

6.8

7.3
75

8.6

1-95

6.9
7.1

9.2

9.7

2-95

7.3

8.4

7.8

9.6

7.3

9.3

9.7

9.7

7.8

8.0

8.0
7.2

8.8

70

7.8
7.1

8.9

6.8

7.2
67

7.5

3-95

7.0
6.6

7.8

6.8

8.1

6.0

7.2

6.7

5.2

0.9

4-95

6.3

6.5

6.4

6.7

7.3

6.7

7.5

6.7

7.1

6.2

73

5.3

5.5

4.2

6.4

6.6

6.5

6.7

7.4

6.8

7.5

6.8

7.2

6.4

73

5.7

6.0

5.1

1.6
3.6

2.2

1-96

6.2
6.4

5.0

7.8

2-96

6.8

7.0

6.9

71

7.8

7.3

8.0

7.3

7.8

7.1

8.0

6.6

7.4

7.2

6.7

60

7.8

10.7

13.6

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
1,449.3

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.

1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494,7
1,523.1
1,572.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3,1996

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4-91

12.7
10.5
8.7

10.7

4.7

8,3

7.8

5.4

6.9
3.4

1.6
2.2

4-95

1-96

0.1

3.3
3.4

3-95

3.2

4-92

2-95

6.2

8.1

1-95

15.4

2-92
3-92

Annual Rates
4-94

10.2

1-92

2-93

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

32

1,399,8
1,450.7
1,472.8

1-93

6.9

6.2

4.1

5.0
3.4

2-93

6.3

5.7

3.9

3.3

1,484.5
1,509.5
1,509.7
1,521.5

3-93

6.0

5.4

3.8

3.3

3.3

3.5

4-93
1-94

6.0

4,2

3.8
2.4

3.9

3.2

4.3

4.8

5.5
4.2

2.2

1.3

1.6

4.8
1.1

2-94

4.8

4.2

2.7

26

1.9

3-94

4.9

4.4

3.1
3.4

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.3
2.9

2.0
28

2.7

1.5

5.4

6.1

4-94

4.7

3.8

3.6
3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3,1
3.3

6.3
5.7

7.1

3.8

3.6
3.6

3.7

4.6

3J5
3.6

3.2

1-95

5.1
5.0

6.0

8.0
6.0

2-95

5.1

4,7

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.0

5.7

3.5

3.5

4.7

5.9
4.7

5.8
4.4

4.8

3.5

3.7
3.2

3.2

2.9

0.2

3.3

3.3

2.9
3.4

4.2

4,1

3.7

2.7

2.3

0.6

2.9

3.2

1,534.7
6.1

1,557.7

-0.0

-5.8

1.5

-0.7

1,534.6
4.7

1,552.5
1,575.7
1,606.4
3.9

1,621.9
5.6

3-95

4.8

4.4

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5
3.2

4-95

4.2
4.4

35

3.3

3.3

3,0

1-96

4.5
4.7

3.7

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.3
3.6

4.6

4.6

4.3

3.6

3.5

2-96

4.8

4,5

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

4.8

4.8

4.6

4.0

4,0

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.




1,644.3
1,645.0

2.8

1,0
4.1

1,649.3
7.2

3.6

4.8

6.7

6.1

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1,678.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1996

27

1,703.5

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.





Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102