Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1996

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OCTOBER 1996

N ational
Economic
Trends
Low Wages and
Foreign Investment

ponderance of foreign direct investment in industrial­
ized countries. When locating abroad, firms choose
stable and prosperous markets. Furthermore, the pres­
ence of trade barriers may make direct investment
preferable to exporting.
While these data indicate that access to cheap labor
is not the driving force for most foreign direct invest­
ment, U.S. companies do have a strong presence in
some developing countries. Brazil and Mexico, for
example, rank among the top ten recipients of U.S. di­
rect investment based on employment data. Even in
developing countries, market access appears to be an
important determinant of investment, since most of
what is produced by U.S. affiliates is not simply exported
to the United States. In actuality, only 12 percent of
sales by U.S. foreign affiliates in developing countries
are exported to the United States, somewhat higher
than the 7 percent exported to the United States by
affiliates in industrialized countries. Moreover, although
25 percent of the sales of U.S. affiliates in Mexico
were exported to the United States in 1993, this is no
greater than the 26 percent exported to the United States
by U.S. affiliates in Canada.
— Patricia S. Pollard

Foreign direct investment by U.S. companies— the
establishment or expansion of a foreign subsidiary— has
expanded rapidly, growing at a rate of 10 percent per
year between 1982 and 1995. The value of U.S. direct
investment abroad reached $712 billion in 1995, a
$91 billion increase over 1994. A common explanation
for this rise is that U.S. companies are lured overseas
by low wages in developing countries, where they
produce goods for export to the United States.
An examination of the data suggests that such
claims are exaggerated. In 1995, 72 percent of the
stock of U.S. direct investment abroad was in industri­
alized countries (see table). These high-wage countries
are also the primary destination for new investment,
accounting for 67 percent of the increase in the value
of direct investment in 1994 and 74 percent of the
increase in 1995.
Employment data presents a similar picture.
Foreign affiliates of U.S. companies employ
6.7 million workers.
U.S. Direct Investment Abroad
As the table shows,
Value of Investment: 1995
Employment: 1993
65 percent of these
Country
$ billions
Percent of Total
thousands
Percent of Total
workers hold jobs in
United Kingdom
120
17
866
13
industrialized countries.
Canada
81
11
875
13
Germany
43
6
569
8
Moreover, nearly half of
Japan
39
6
411
6
the 6.7 million jobs are
France
33
5
6
403
located in six major
Italy
17
2
164
2
economies: Canada,
All Industrial
509
4379
72
65
Mexico
14
2
666
10
France, Germany, Italy,
Total All Countries
712
100
6731
100
Japan and the United
Notes: Dollar figures are based on historical cost. Employment data are for nonbank foreign affiliates, “All industrial” is
Kingdom.
comprised of Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Market access is one
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
explanation for the pre­
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve
Economic
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.



Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in Th is Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the third quarter of
1994 to the second quarter of 1996. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the
top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in
the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from IV/1994 to 1/1996 can be found at
the intersection of the IV/1994 column and the 1/1996 row, a 1.4 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change
from III/1994 to II/1996 is 2.1 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

3-94
3.0
1.7
1.4
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.1




4-94
0.4
0.6
1.6
1.3
1.4
2.0

1-95

0.7
2.3
1.6
1.7
2.3

2-95

3.8
2.0
2.0
2.7

2

3-95

0.3
1.1
2.3

4-95

2.0
3.3

1-96

4.7

6693.854
6701.036
6713.524
6776.406
6780.715
6814.310
6892.553

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Real GDP is c h a in -w e ig h t quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(C om pound Annual R ates of C hange)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

Annual Rates
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
6,002.3

4-91

3.6

1-92

5.9

8.2

2-92

5.7

6.7

6,121.8
6,201.2
6,271.7

3-92

5.4

6.0

5.3
5.0

4-92

5.8

6.3

5.7

5.4

5.8

5.2

5.9
5.2

7.3

1-93

5.5

3.8

2-93

5.2

5.5

5.0

4.9

5.0

3.9

4.0

3-93

5.1

5.3

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4-93

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

4.8

5.1

5.7

7.1

1-94

5.3

5.6
5.5

5.2

5.2

5.3

4.9

5.2

5.6

6.2

5.3

2-94

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.2

5.5

5.9

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.4

5.6

5.9

6.5
6.4

6.1

3-94

5,5
5.5

6.1

6.5

6.1

4-94

5.5

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.9

6.1

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.8
5.5

6.1

1-95

5.3
5.2

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.0

4.5

3.8

2-95

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.0

4.6

4.1

3.5

4.6

6,383.0
6,442.6

5.3

6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6.9

6,890.5
6,993.1
5.3

7,083.2
7,149.8
3.1

3-95

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.1
5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1
5.2

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.2

4.8

4.5

4.3

4.5

6.0

4-95

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.4

4.1

3.8

3.8

4.1

2.3

1-96

5.1

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.8

4.7

4.4

4.1

3.9

39

4.1

3.2

4.2

2-96

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.1

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.7

4.3

5.4

6.5

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are final estimates.




7,204.9
7,309.8
7,350.6
7,426.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

3

7,545.1

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4*91
1-92

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96
6104.442

10
2.8

4.7

6175.316

2*92

2,7

3.6

2.5

3-92

2.8

3.4

2.8

3.0

4-92

3.1

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.3

1-93

2.6

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.1

-0.1

2-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.0

6214.219
6260.927
6327.306
6326.432
1.9

3-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.1

0.9
1.4

2.1

2.3

4-93

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.6

4.8

1-94

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

23

2.9

32

3.6

25

2-94

2.9

3.1

2.9

3.0

29

2.7

3.3

3.6

4.1

37

3-94

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.9

4-94

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.5

3,7

6356.530
6393.434
6469.055
6508.519
lllf f g

3.6

4*
4.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.3

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.0

2.3

1.7

0.4

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5 1 2 .5
2.7
2.7

1.9

1.4

0.6

0.7

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.3

2.0

MMi

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.6

1-96

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

O .Q fi

O
R
6.0

it . /

5 ft
¿ .O

'■9 A

4-91

1-92

3-91

2-92

Second quarter data are final estimates.



2.4

2.3

2.5

« e
i- O

4 £
4**0'- •

i >*7f
C*

3-92

4-92

1-93

3.0
-

26
2.6

2.3

:

%•. /

%

,

x:-

6587.574
6644.898

2.6
2.6

v

6693.854

1-95
3-95

'

3,0

2-95
4-95

i

6701.036
6713.524

1.6

2.3

3.8

1.6

2.0

0.3

1.7

ÜL
1.4

1.7

2.0

1.1

2.0

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

f’

6776.406
6780.715
6814.310

<¿«0

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4-91

2.5

1-92

3.0

3.4

2-92

2.9

3.1

2.8

3-92

2.5

2.5

2.1

15

4-92

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.3
2.7

2.1

1-93

2.7

3.3

3.8

2*93

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.2

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
98.304
99.137
99.813

100.174
100.876
101.832
102.386

3-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.0

1.8

4-93

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.3

1-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.9

2-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.2
2.2

2.2

2.3
2.3

2.4

2.2
2.4

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

3-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

4-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

1-95

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.2
2.4

2-95

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

102.833
103.415

2.4

104.149
1.9
2.1

104.632
2.4

105.248

2.1
2.4

2.2
2.6

2.7

3.3

2.5
2.4

2,4

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.1

105.802
106.676

3-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.5
2.4

4-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

1-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are final estimates.




2.4

107.309
107.855
2.1

108.419
109.043

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

109.619

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
98.3
99.1

23
2.9

3.3

99.8

2-92

2.9

3.1

2.9

3-92

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.6

4-92

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.8

100.9
101.8

100.2

1-93

2.8

2.8

2.7

22
2.7

3.2

3.6

2-93

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

2.6

2.2

2.2

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

31

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.5

3-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

4-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

102.4

1-94

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6
2.7

2-94

2.6

2.6

2.5
2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.3
2.4

2.5

2.6
2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

3-94

2.6

2.6

4-94

2.6

102.9
103.5

2.4

104.3
104.8
105.5
106.1

1-95

2.6

2.6
2.6

2.6

2.5
2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

23
2.7

2.6

2.8

2.3
2.9

2-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.6

3-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.2

4-95

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

22

2.2

1-96

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.

3.4

107.0
107.7
108.3
108.9
109.6
110.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3.6

1-92

3.7

3.7

2-92

3.5

3.5
3.1

3.3

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
98.903
99.703
100.298

3-92

3.3

2.8

2.4

4-92

3.2

3.0

2.8

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2Q

2.7

3-93

32
3.2
3.1
2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.2

1.9

1.3

4-93

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.0

2-93

1992=100
2-94

98.007

4-91

1-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

101.097
101.817
102.473

2.6

102.792
2.7

103.483

1-94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.4

2-94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

25

2.1

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

26

2.4

2.7

2,3
2.7

2.3

3-94

2.3 i l i i !
2.4
2.5

2.8

3.4

4-94

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

23

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2,5
2.4

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.3

2,1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.1

1 - 9 ....1-5...
2.0
1.8

2.0

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.8

3.2

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2.4

1-95

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3
2.4

2-95

2.7

2.7

2.6

2,5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

3-95

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

4-95

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

1-96

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3 i f 2l3
2.3
2.3

2-96

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Second quarter data are final estimates.




4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

104.089

1-94

104.675

2-94

105.549
106.054

1.9

3-94

106.739
107.457
1.5

107.846
1.6

108.279
108.911
109.763

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982-84=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

2-95
3-95

2.4
2.8

3.2

4-95
5-95

3.2

3.6

4.0

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.2

6-95

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.2

3.2

7-95

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.0

0.8

8-95

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.1

1.6

2.4

9-95

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.6

2.0

1.6

10-95

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2,2

4.0

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

2.6
2.2

2.8

11-95

2.8
2.6

2.1

2.4

0.8

12-95
1-96

2.5
2.7

2.6

2.5

2.1

1.6

2.4

2.5

2.2
2.6

2,4

2.7

2.0
2.4

2.2

2.8

2.3
2.6

2.7

3.0

2.6

3.6

4.8

2-96

2.7

2.7

2.7

2,5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.8

2,6

3.2

3.6

2,4

3-96

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

26
2.9

2.9

3.2

3.0

3.6

4.0

3.5

4.7

4-96

3.0
3.1

3.0
3.1

2.9

2,8
2.9

3.1
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.4
3.4

3.3
3.4

3,8
3.8

4.1

3.9
3.9

4.7

3.0

2.9
3.0

4.1

5-96

3.0
3.0

4.5

4.7
4.3

6-96

2.9

2,9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

3,0

3.1

3.0

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.1

2.3

0.8

7-96

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.1

2.6

1.9

3.1

8-96

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.0

31

2.8

2.3

18

2.3

1.5

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

150.9
151.3




151.8
152.2
152.6
152.7
153.0
153.2
153.7
153.8
154.1
154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2
156.7

3.9

156.8
157.2
157.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Producer Price Index -

Finished Goods

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

1-95

2-95

2-95
3-95

1.9
1.4

0.9

4-95

19
2.1

1.9
2.2

2,9

5-95

2.9

2.9

6-95

1.3

1.2

1.3

0.5

-1.9

7-95

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

8-95

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.5

-0.3

0.5

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96
127.2
127.3
127.6
127.9
127.7
127.7
127.8

0.9

9-95

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.6

2.4

3.8

10-95

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

0.9

1.7

22.

2.9

128.2
1.9

128.4

11-95

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

2.6

3.2

2.8

3.8

12-95

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

3.0

3,6

4.3

4.4

5.7

7.7

1-96

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.8

3.8

4.4

4.7

19

2-96
3-96

2.0

2.0

1.9
2.4

2.7

3.0

2.8

0.5

-0 9

2.8

32

35

35

3.1
3.8

2.8

2.3

2.0
2.4

2.4

2.3

2.1
2.4

38

2.5

2.8

6.7

4-96

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

2.6

2.8

4.7

2.8

2.2

2.3

2.5
2.4

2.4

5-96

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.9

31

31

3.2

3.1

22

2.3

3.4

1.9

0.9

6-96

2.2
2.1

2.3

2.3

2.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.2

2M

3.0

1.9

1.4

1.9

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.6
2.4

2.8

7-96

2.2
2.1

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.6

1.9

1.9

2.4

1.4

0.9

0.9

0.0

8-96

22.

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2 ■■2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.1

2.1

2.6

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.8

3.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96




5-95

128.8
129.6
129.8
129.7
130.4
130.7
130.8
131.0
131.0
131.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent
9

Percent
9

7-

- 7

Benefits

5^

Comp ensation

3-

-3
Wages and Salaries

I

1

1

1

1

1

I

1
— .1.. 1 1
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990
1991
Compensation is the sum ot wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

*
1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Data are for the last month of quarter.




4-93

1-94

June 1989=100

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-91

1.2

1-92

4.6

8.0

2-92

3,9

5.2

3-92

2.7

3.2

0.8

-0.8

4-92

3.8

2.4

2.4

1-93

3.3
2.1

2.3

0.9

0.4

1.0

-3.5

2-93

1.6

1.6

0.4

-0.1

0.1

-2.6

-1.6

3-93

1.5

1.5

0.5

0.1

0.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.8

4-93

1.7

1.8

0.9

0.7

10

-0.2

0.9

2.2

3.6

1-94

1.3

1.4

0.6

0.3

0.5

-0.6

0.2

0.8

0.8

-2.0

2-94

13

0-5

0.3

0.5

*0.4

0.2

0.7

0.7

-0.8

0.4

3-94

1.3
14

1.4

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

11

0.3

1.4

24

4-94

1.3

1.3

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.6

0.9

1.0

0.3

1.1

1.4

0.4

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
97.4
99.3

2.4

99,9
99.7
5.7

101.1
100.2
99.8
100.0
100.9
100.4
1C0.5
101.1
101.2

1-95

10

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

-0.2

0.3

0.3

-0.8

-2.0

2-95

1.1

1.1

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.1

0.0

3-95

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.5

1.8

1.6

4-95

1.0
1.1

0.6
0.7

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.6

1.1
1.3

0.6

1-96

1.0
1.1

1.1

0.8

2.0

2-96

11

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.3

1-1

0.9

1.6

1.2

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96




100.7
2.0

101.2
101.6
-0.4

101.5
102.0
102.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987 = 100

1987 = 100

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-95

2-95

2-95
3-95

-0.9
0.4

1.7

4-95

-1.4

-1.6

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1987=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96
121.720
121.888

«4,8

121.388

5-95

-1.2

-1.2

-2.7

-0.5

6-95

-0.8

-0.7

-1.5

0.2

7-95

-0.5

-0.4

-0.9

0.4

0.8

0.7

8-95

1.2

1.6

1.6

3.3

4.5

6.4

12.3

121.339
0.9

121.434
121.507
122.690

9-95

1.2

1.6

1.5

2.9

3.7

4.6

6.7

1.3

10-95

0.4

0.5

0.4

1.3

1.6

1.8

22

-2.6

122.821
-6.3

122.159

11-95

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.7

-0.3

-1.1

4.3

12-95
1-96

0.9
0.6

11
0.7

1.0
0.6

1.8
1.2

2.1

2.3

0.3

1.5

1.5

2.6
1.7

-0.3

-0.0
-0.7

3.2
1.2

2.2
-0.4

-2.8

2-96

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.7

3.1

3.4

3.8

2.4

2.6
1.2

5,0

5.2

6.8

2.8

2.4

2.5

5.3

-5.5

3.8
4.6

4.2
5.1

6.7

1.8
4.0

9.6
9.1

8.6

122.587
122.809
122.515
17.3

124.157

3-96

1.2

1.4

1.4

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1.2

4-96
5-96

1.8
2.2

2.0
2.4

2.0
2.5

2.6
3.0

2.9
3.3

3.1
3.6

3.3

2.4

3.8

2.2
2.9

3.1

3.9
4.6

6-96

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.4

3.7

3.9

4.2

3.4

3.7

5.0

5.1

5.6

7.4

8.3

8.1

2.4

2.6

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.9

3.2

3.4

4.5

4.5

4.9

6.2

5.0
4.1

8.7

7-96

6.7

5.7

4.3

0.8

8-96

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.1

3.4

36

4.7

4.7

5.0

Q2

4.4

6.5

5.8

4.9

3.3

6.0

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96




7.2

123.576
124.519
125.380
126.192
126.271
126.885

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-95
2-95

2,0

3-95

2.1

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Thousands
Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

of Persons
1-96

2-96

5-96

6-96

7-96
124,881
125,106

1.0

0.4

5-95

-0.2

-0.9

6*95

-02

-0.8

-0.3

0.3

-0.1

-1.7
-0.7

-1.9

7-95

-0.5

1.1

2.6

8-95

0.3

•0.0

-0.5

-0.3

0.8

1.4

0.3

9-95

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

1.1

1.5

1.0

1.7

10-95

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

1.2

1.6

1.3

1.9

2.0

11-95

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.7

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.1

-1.7

12-95

0.1

-0.1

0,0

0.5

0.7

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-1.3

-0.8

1-96

0.3
0.4

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.5

-0.1

0.8

2.4

2-96

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.9

3.3

4.3

3-96

10

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.6

3.8

4.5

4.8

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

2.0

2.7

2.8

2.1

0.9

4-96

2.2

4-95

4-96

3-96

124,973

-1 3
-2.4

0.8

0.7

-3.5

124,598
124,566
124,832
¡ lililí!

*• *

124,859
125,036
125,244
125,062
124,981
125,226
125,663
126,151
-0.5

126,095

5-96

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

2.3

2.9

3.0

2.6

1.5

3.5

6-96

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.6

2.7

2.3

1.5

2.5

1.4

2.2

7-96

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

8-96

12

12

11

1.2

1.6

17

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95




126,462
126,610

2.6

2.7

2.3

1.8

2.5

2.0

2.6

2.5

2.5

Z Z ! 1.7

Z3

1.9

2,1

1.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

¡lili

2-96

3-96

126,884
127,055

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10*95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
5-96
6-96
7-96
8*96

Initial Month

1-95
2.6
2.4
21
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7

2-95

18
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.1
19
1.4
1.5
1.4
17
1.7
1.6
1.6
17
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Thousands

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96
116,502
116,701

1.7
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0

0.5
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4

116,861
116,907

2.0

1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
1.5
2.0
1.8
17
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1

3-95

4-95

5-95




117,100
1.0
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.9
1.9

117,201

1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1

3.1
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
22

117,499

1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2

6-95

7-95

8-95

1.3
1.3
1.4
16
1.2
1.8
1.8

1.3
1.4
1.8
1.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2

1.5
2.0
1.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.3

2.4
0.9
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4

-0.7
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4

2.3
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

5.3
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9

1.6
1.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5

1-96

2-96

1.9
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.6
3-96

4.2
3.2
2.9
2.8

2.2
2.3
2.4

2.3
2.4

2J5

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

117,623
117,749
117,899
118,136
118,070
118,579
118,737
118,928
119,335
119,554
119,782
120,032

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Billions of Chained
Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

7-96

4,901.7

2-95

-0.2

3-95

0.5

1.3

4-95

-2.1

-3.0

-7.0

5-95

0.5

0.8

0.5

8.7

4,906.9
4,877,1
4,911.3
4,933.0

6-95

15

1.9

2.1

7.1

54

7-95

2.0

2.5

2.8

6.3

5.1

4.8

8-95

1.7

2.0

2.1

4.6

3.2

2.1

-0.5

9-95

2.2

2.6

2.8

4.9

4.0

3.5

2.9

6.4

10-95

2.4

2.8

3.0

4.8

4.0

3.7

3.3

5.2

4.1

11-95

2.7

3.0

3.2

4.7

4.1

3.8

3.6

5.0

4.3

4.5

12-95
1-96

3.0

3.5

4.9

4.4

5.3

4.9

5.3

2.8

4.0

3.4

4.2
3.2

4.1

2.5

3.3
2.7

2.9

3.6

2.9

2.5

15

-2 9

2-96

2.7

2.9

3.1

42

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.9

34

3.2

2.8

1.1

3-96

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.8

3.3

3.0

2.8

3.3

2.8

2.5

2.0

0.7

2.6

4-96

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.3

-0.5

-2.1

5-96

1.6
2.4

2.6

2.7

3.5

3.1

2.9

2.7

3.0

2.6

2.4

2.1

1.3

«1.8
24

6-96

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.9

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.6

3.7

7-96

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.6

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.5

20

29

2.4

3.0

7.8

3.9

-1.2

8-96

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.5

3.3

3.0

3.6

7.4

4.6

2.3

6.0

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96




4,952.4
4,950.3
4,975.8
4,992.4
5,010.8
6.1

5,035.6
5,023.1
5.4

5,045.2
-0 1

5,044.7

-5.3 -10.1

5,000.0

1.4

22

16.2

3.3

4.5

12.7

5,063.1
9.2

5,100.5
5,095.2
5,119.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84 = 100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

2-95 -14j2

Billions of
1982-84
Dollars
126.597

3-95

-4.3

6.7

4-95

-4.6

0.6

127.280
-5.1
2.4

10.5
8.7
4.4

7.0
1.5

-3.7

2.3

0.1

126.727

5-95

-1.0

3.8

6*95

0,5

4.6

7-95

-0.2

2.9

3.9
2.0

8-95

0.4

3.1

2.4

4.3

9-95

0.2

2.4

1.7

3.1

1.3

-0.5

1.2

-1.5

10*95

-0.6

1.2

0.5
1.7

1.5

-0.3

-2.0

-1.4

-4.0

127.788
128.510
128.104
4.0

128.521
128.358
-6.4

127.647

2.7

1.4

0.3

1.4

0.5

1.5

10.2

2.9

2,1

73

0.3

1.0

1.6
0.4

2.7

2.1

1.9
1.1

1.1

1.8

2.0
1.4

0.8

3.4

0.2

-4.4

3.7

3.4

4.3

3.6

3.2

4.2

4.2

5.4

8.6

8.1

9.7

26.0

3.4

3.1

3.9

3.3

2.9

3.7

37

4.6

6.9

6.1

6.5

12.4

0.3

2.7

2.4

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.5

3.0

4.7

3.7

3.3

6.0

-2.7

2.7

3.3

2.7

2.3

3.0

2.8

3.4

4.9

4.0

3.8

6.0

0 1

-0.0

5.9

1.9

2.4

1.8

1.4

1.9

1.7

2.1

3.2

2.2

1.8

3.0

-2.0

-2.8

-1.3

1.4

1.7

2.7

1.8

13

2.3

-1.9

-2.4

-1.3

-4 7

-1.3

1.3

1.6

2.4

1.6

1.2

2.0

*1.5

»1.8

-0.9

-3.0

-0,4

0,4

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

11-95

0.4

2.2

12-95

2.5

1-96

0.8
0.4

2-96

22

3-96

2.0

4-96
5-96

15
1.8

2.9

6-96

1.2

2.2

7-96

1.0

2.0

1.7

2.2

1.6

1.2

1.6

8-96

1.0

1.9

1.6

2.1

1.5

1.2

1.5

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

128.683
5.0

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




15

129.204
128.719
131.221
131.252
-5.6

130.622
131.250
-8.1

130.335
130.192
130.240

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April
May
June
July

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
3126.01
390.72
3343.38
406.21
432.34
3565.75

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
267.92
2072.55
2227.76
290.60
2341.79
302.88

Total Business (3)
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
874.52
7139.15
7648.54
931.70
989.84
8161.25

293.90
299.81
300.75
299.82
300.76
301.28

426.72
427.25
429.96
431.30
431.65
432.34

195.62
196.64
196.64
196.19
197.91
199.10

299.58
302.70
303.30
306.22
307.27
302.88

677.11
684.40
686.27
685.66
690.24
695.29

977.49
982.15
986.37
992.27
993.64
989.84

298.69
301.76
300.65
308.00
311.20
308.85
312.67

434.72
435.62
435.41
435.44
434.22
433.87
434.52

199.13
203.39
204.23
204.03
205.67
204.37
204.66

304.37
304.82
302.15
303.40
303.93
304.19
307.52

690.69
699.21
700.25
709.54
715.13
711.76
720.55

995.35
996.01
994.01
998.43
996.98
997.32
1001.49

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.

1996

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91
1-92

-0.1
3.0

6.2

2-92

4.0

3-92

2.6
2.7

3.6

2.4

3.0

4-92

3.1

3.9

3.1

3.8

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

3-95

4-95

6175.815
1.8

6203.759
6249.542
4.6

6320.711

1-93

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.2

1.9

-0.9

2.3

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.8

0.4

1.7

6307.113
6334.496

3-93

2.3

2.7

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2.0

2.3

4-93

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.7

6371.296
5.0

6449.202
6467.727

1-94

2.5

2.8

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.8

3.0

1.2

2-94

2.8
2.9

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.0

3.0

2.6

2.5
2.7

2.4

3-94

2.5
2.6

2.6

2.3

2.9

3.1

3.3

2.8

36

4.2

4-94

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

3.0

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.8

35

1-95

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

27

2.8

29

25

28

27

2.0

0.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

2.5

2-95

6083.813

2-93

2-95

1-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

2.7

6514.945
6582.060
6638.134
6647.366
2.1

6682,420

3-95

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.7

28

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

24

2.1

2.8

3.6

4-95

2.5

2.7

2.5

25

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.4

2.5

6741.364
1.4

6764.193

1-96

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

23

2.1

2.5

2.7

22

30

2-96

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.6

26

2.5

2.7

28

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.8

&Û

m

3.6

4.1

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are final estimates.




17

6815.153
6884.700

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)
4th
0.25

1995
3rd
3.80

2nd
0.75

1st
0.43

4th
2.98

3rd
3.53

Real GDP

2nd
4.67

1996
1st
2.00

Final Sales

4.15

3.04

1.35

3.56

2.11

0.55

3.42

4.14

Change in Business
Inventories

0.59

-1.03

-1.08

0.15

-1.43

-0.09

-0.50

-0.61

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

2.28

2.36

0.71

1.65

2.11

0.65

2.10

1.87

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

1.05
0.41
0.61

1.47
1.19
0.28

0.51
0.26
0.24

0.85
0.51
0.34

-0.23
0.36
-0.56

1.19
1.49
-0.26

1.14
1.16
0.00

1.18
1.28
-0.08

Government Expenditures
Federal
State and Local

1.39
0.62
0.76

0.30
0.40
-0.11

-0.81
-0.96
0.17

-0.11
-0.41
0.31

0.15
-0.10
0.25

-0.23
-0.49
0.26

-0.28
-0.45
0.19

1.30
0.81
0.48

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-0.63
0.66
-1.28

-1.12
0.21
-1.33

0.99
1.19
-0.21

1.19
1.18
0.00

0.07
0.65
-0.58

-1.08
0.28
-1.36

0.44
1.70
-1.24

-0.27
1.00
-1.26

Residual (2)

-0.03

0.04

-0.06

0.03

0.07

-0.03

0.04

0.01

1994

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

3-91

4-91

1-92

-1.0
2.7

6.4

2-92

23

4.3

2.2

3-92

2.6

3.8

2.6

2.9

4-92

3.2
2.7

4.2

3.5

4.1

5,4

1-93

3.5

2.8

3.0

3.0

0.7

2-93

2.7

3.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

1.7

2.7

3-93

2.9

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.4

3.3

3.8

4-93

2.9

3.4

2.9
2.9

3.1

3.1

2.5

3.1

3.3

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.1

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.0
3.0

3,1
3.0

3.1

2.7

3.1

3.2

2.7

3.1

3.1

3,2
3.0

3.5

3.1

3.0
3.0

3.1

2.8

3.1

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.9

3,1

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.0

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4

2.0
2.2

3.1
2.8

2.4

4-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

1-93

2-93

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4109.111
4173.758
4196.418
4226.674
4282,333
4289.676
4318.835
4359.471

2.8

4390.023

1-94

2.9

3.3

2-94

3.3

3-94

2.9
2.9

4-94

2.9

3,0

1-95

2.8

3.3
3.1

2.8

3.1
2.9

2-95
3-95

2.8
2.8

3.1
3.0

2.8
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.6
2.6

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.7

2.7
2.7

2.7

2.7

4-95

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.1
2.4

1.9
2.2

2.2
2.5

1.1

2.9

2.2
2.4

1.7

2.7

2.6
2.7

2.6

1-96

2.3

2.3

35

2-96

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

23

23

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.4

3.4

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.3

4420.532

2.6

Second quarter data are final estimates.




4458.721
4489.357
4523.959
4534.762
4569,870
4597.341
4609.410
4649.076

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

18

4687.603

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3-91

4-91

1-92

14,7
19.6

24.7

2-92

20.4

23.4

3-92

15.9

16.3

22.2
12.4

33

4-92

16.5

16.9

14.4

10.7

18.7

1-93

13.9

13.8

11 2

7.8

10.1

2.1

2*93

11.0

10.4

7.7

4.4

4.8

-1.6

-5.1

3-93

11 3

10.8

8.6

6.1

6.8

3.1

36

4-93

12.7

12.4

10.7

8.9

10.1

8.1

10.1

18.6

24.3

1-94

12.7

12.5

11.0

9.5

10.6

9.0

10.8

16.7

18.4

128

2-94

12.7

11.2

9.9

15.7

16.5

12.7

8.5

9.6
7.9

11.2

9.8

10,9
9.2

8.9

11.9

11 6

8.9

7.6

8.1

6.9

7.6

9.8

9.2

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

w m gs

3-94

11.4

12.5
11.1

4-94

10.5

10.1

213.917
224.906
226.742
236.669
237.930
234.808
242.222

13.2

255.762
263.596
271.574

77

12.7
5.2

-1.8

57

34

-1.0

270.324
-0.1
-3.2

270.261

1-95

9.2

8.8

7.5

6.3

6.6

5.3

5.7

7.4

6.4

3.2

0.9

2*95

7.5

7.0

5.7

4.5

4.6

3.3

3.4

45

0.2

-2.2

-5.5 ; -6.8

-9.9 -13.4

3-95

7.6

7.1

6.0

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.0

5.0

33
4.1

1.4

-0.3

-2.8

-3.0

-3 9

-2.7

4-95

7.5

7.1

6.0

4.9

5.1

4.0

4.2

5.2

4.3

2.0

0.6

-1.3

-1 2

*1.5

0.2

7.8

6.4

1-96

7.5

7.1

6.1

5.1

5.2

43

4.4

54

4.6

2.6

1.4

-0.1

0.2

0.2

20

7.7

69

74

2*96

0.0

7.6

6.7

5.8

5.9

5.1

5.3

6.2

5.6

3.9

3.0

1.8

2.3

2.8

4.7

9.7

9.9

11.7

16.3

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

-2.8

265.895

-6.3

Second quarter data are final estimates.

256.520
9.2

262.245
266.337
271.105
281.519

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91

-4.1

1-92

-0.3

3.6

2-92

3.0

6.8

10.0

3-92

2.8

5.2

6.0

2.2

4-92

3.5

5.5

6.1

4.2

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96
539.532
544.357
557.484
560.558

6.2

569.082

1-93

3.9

5.6

6.1

4.8

6.1

6.0

2-93

42

5.7

6.1

5.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

3-93

4.3

5.6

5.9

5.1

5.8

5.7

5.5

4.7

4-93

5.7

7.0

7.5

7.1

8.1

8.5

9.4

10.9

7.9

8.3

8.8

97

12.3

7.3

8.1

8.5

9.1

10.6

72

8.9

9.4

10.0

11.4

9.4

10.4

13.8

9.3

10.3

10.1

110

13.0

11 1

11.5
12.1

11.1

12 1

13.8

13.8

15.4

10.1

10,9

9,8

10.3

11.1

102

9.3

5.8

7.0

7.5

7.1

6.0

7.0

7.4

7.1

3-94

6.6

7.6

8.0

7.8

7.8
8.5

4-94

7.0

8.0

8.4

8.3

8.9

586,371
593.137
17.5

617.578
628.545

:

1-94
2-94

577.495

1-95

7.6

8.6

9.0

8.9

9.6

9.9

9.8
10.4

2*95

7.3

8.2

8.5

8,4

9.0

9.3

9.6

639.480
660.472
12,2

679.713
704.449
3.5

710.480
718.954

3-95

7.2

8.0

8.3

8.1

8.6

8.9

9.2

9.5

10.1

9.1

9.4

9.8

8.9

7.8

42

4.9

4-95

7.6

7.9

7.7

8.2

8,3

8.5

8.8

9.2

8.2

8,4

8.6

7.5

6.4

3.6

3.7

2.5

1-96

6.9
7.1

7.8

8.1

8.0

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

8.2

7.4

5.5

6.2

6.9

11.6

2-96

7.0

7.6

7.8

7.7

8.1

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.9

8.1

8.2

8.3

7.6 IÉÉËÉ

5.9

7.7

3.8

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

5.2 i i l l
1-95 2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are final estimates.




19

3-94

4-94

723.339
743.478
750.512

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91

-1.4

1-92

0.6

2.5

2-92
3-92

0.3
0.9

11
17

-0.3
1.3

2.9

4-92

11

1.7

1-93

0.1

0.4

1.5
-0 1

0.0

2*93

0.2

0.4

3-93

0.3

4-93

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

4-94

3-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates
1250.732
1258.542

2.4

1257.505
1266.491
1.9
-1.4

1272.506
-4.6

1257.695

-2.2

0.2

0.3

-0.8
-0.4

-1.1

0.6

10

0.3

0.5

-0.0

*0,5

0.9

1.2

1.5

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

-0.4

-0.6

-1.5

-4.3

-0.2

-0.0

-0.3

-0.3

*1 2

-1.2

-2.6

-0.8

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.5
0.7

-0.7

3-94

-0 8
0.2

0.8

0.8

0.5

3.0

7.0

4-94
1-95

0.3

04

0.2

0 3

00

-0.2

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

to

2.7

-1.4

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

0.2

01

-0.2

0.8

1.4

-1.3

-1.2

2-95

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

-0.0

-0.2

0.3

0,3

0.2

-0.1

0.8

1.2

-0.6

-0.2

0.8

3-95

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.1

-0.6

4-95

-0.1

-0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.2

*0.3

-0.4

-0.7

-0.1

-0.0

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-2.4

-4.3

1-96

-0.0

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-1.1

-1.4

1.6

2-96

0.4

05

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.1

as

0.5

05

0.4

0.9

1.1

0.3

0.6

1.0

1.0

1.6

4.6

7.7

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

0.1

0.5

-0.0
0.2

0.4

0.6

1-94

-0.1

2-94

1258.415
1261.562
1266.200
1252.362
1249.796
1271.154
1266.579

Second quarter data are final estimates.

1262.687
1265.126
1263.357
1249.607
1254.675
1278.155

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
526.926

4-91

-6.8

1-92

-4.1

-1.4

2-92
3 92

*3.2

-1 4

-1.4

-1.2

0.7

1.7

49

4-92

-0.3

1.3

4,1
-1.8

-2.6 1 -5.0

525.078

1-93

-2.5

-1.6

2,3
-1 7

2-93

-2.9

-2.2

-2.4

523 267
529.603
3.4

534.001
516.134

-5.0 -•12.7
«8.9

509.666

-4.9

505.912

3-93

-2.9

-2.3

-2.4

-2.7

-4.5

-7.0

-3.9

-2.9

4-93

-2.6

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

*3.7

*5.4

-2.9

-1.8

-0.7

1-94

-3.6

-3.2

-3.4

-3.7

-5 1

-6.7

-5.1

-5.1

-6.2 -11.4

2-94

-3.7

-3.4

-3.6

-3.9

-5.1 .•* -6 4

*5.1

*5.2 . -5.9

-8.4

-5.3

3-94

-2.5

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-3.2

-4 1

-2.5

-2.0

-1.8

-2.2

2.8

4-94

*2 8

-2.4

-2.5

-2.7

-3.5

-3.0

-2.7

-3 1

-2.8

-2.9

-3.0

-3.8

-3.5

-3.3

-2.7 !■ *3.1
-3.3 -3.8

*0.2

1 95

*4.3
-4.5

-1.8

-0.6

-6.2

-6.5

2-95
3-95

-2.9
-3 1

-2.7

*2.9
-3.1

-3.6
-3.7

-4.2
-4 3

-3.2
-3.5

-3.0
-3.3

-3.0
-3 4

-3,4
-3.7

*1.7
-2.4

*0.8
-1.8

-4,6

-4.0

-2.9

-2.8
-3.0

-4.9

-4.5

-1.4
-3.5

4-95

-3.7

-3.5

*3.7

-4.5

-5.1

-4.4

-5.0

•4.0

-3.8

-6.6

-6.7

-6.8

-9.4 -13.2

-3.2

-3 0

-3 1

-3.8

-4.3

-3.6

-4.3
-3.4

-4 5

1-96

-3.8
-3.2

-3.5

-3.8

-2.8

-2.4

-4.6

-4.3

-3.8

-4.6

-4.0

6.0

2-96

-2.6

-2.4

-2.4

-2.5

-2.9

-3.4

-2.6

-2.4

-2.4

-2.5

-1.5

*1.0

-2.7

-2.2

-1.3

-1.2

0.3

77

9.4

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

.

505.025
489.914

Second quarter data are final estimates.




'

483.335
496.688

11.5

489.164

2.4 : -5.9

480.991
479.359
472.543

-5.6

456.154
462.902

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

20

473.446

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4*91
1-92

13.8
10.0

6.3

2*92
3-92

72

4.0

6.0

4-92

6.0

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
¡§l|ysf§|

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3.5

2.5

4.1

3.4

4.2

3.0

2.2

2.4

2.3

-1.3

3.9

3.4

3.8

4.3

3.4

8.3

4-95

623.450

647.083
660.044
645.484

3-93

3.4

2.0

13

12

09

-0 7

-0.5

-8.5

4-93

5.5

4.5

4.2

4.6

5.0

4.8

6.9

8.2

23.4

680.255

1-94

4.7

3.8

35

37

39

35

4.7

36

10.2

-1 5

2-94

5.7

4.8

5.5
6.1

5.5
6.1

6.9
73

6.5
7.2

12.1
11 5

6.8

5.3

5.2
57

6.2

6.7

7.3

8.6

8.7

68

78

7.8

12.5
108

99
8.4

6.7

7.6

7.5

10.0

8.0

6.2

3-95

639.710

4.7

6.0

2-95

649.129

5.2

6.8

1-95

6.0

1-93

3-94

4-94

635,816

2-93

4-94

3-94

633.009
1.8
2.1

4.9
5.4

2-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

1 95

6.5

6.0

5.9

63

7.2
67

2-95

6.5

5.9

5.9

6.3

6.6

7.8

677.647
703.108

15.9
12.8
14.0

97

719.560
747.573

11.0

13.0
9.4

16.5
93

2.6

10.0

8.6

8.2

4.2

752.330
5.9

763.226

3-95

6.7

6.3

6.3

6.6

7.0

7.1

7.9

7.9

10.1

8.4

101

9.0

8.8

6.4

8.3

10.7

4-95

6.9

6.5

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.4

82

8.2

10.2

8.7

10.2

9.3

9J2

7.4

9.1

10.7

79

63

1-96

6.7

63

6.2

6.6

6.9

6.9

7.6

76

93

7.9

91

8.2

2-96

6.6

6.2

8.2

6.5

6.8

6.8

7.5

7.4

9.0

7.6

8.7

7.9

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

7.8 l l l l l
3-94 4-94

Second quarter data are final estimates.

782.952
803.087

10.7

72

7.7

62

1.8

8.9

72

6.0

3.7

5.8

806.713

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

817.864

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4-91

5.1

1-92

4.6

4.1

2-92

7.4

8.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

647.827
13.3

668.344

3-92

5.9

6.1

7.1

1.3

7.0

7.4

8,6

6,3

670.524
11.8

689.141

1-93

7.2

7.6

8.5

7.0

9.9

8.3

2-93

8.0

8.5

94

8.4

10.9

10.5

3-93

7.5

7.8

8.5

7.5

9.1

8.3

83

4.1

9.0

9.7

9.1

10.7

10.5

11.3

10.6

8.5

2-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96
641.371

4-92

4-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

703.069
12.7

724.429
731.707
17.5

761.777

1-94

8.5

8.9

9.5

9.0

10.3

101

105

9.8

12.8

8.2

2-94

9.4

9.8

10.5

11.4

11.4

12.0

11.9

14.6

18.4

11 3

11 3

11.8

11 6

136

13.2
12.3

14.5

10.7

11.2

11.2

11.6

11.4

11.8

13.1

10,3

11.7

12.6

10.5
107

10.8

11.2

10.5

10.9

9.2

7.8

3-94

9.5

9.9

10.5

10.1
10.2

4-94

9.9

10-5

10.2

1-95

9.5
9.7

10.0

10.5

10.3

11.2

11 2

11 5

11.4

12.9
12.7

2-95

9.3

9.6

10.1

9.8

10.6

10.5

10,7

10.5

ifiii

776.962
810.404
831.262
851,919
874.851

3-95

8.7

8.9

9.3

9.0

97

9.5

96

93

9.9

8.9

9.0

7.3

8.6
64

51

22

4-95

8.5

8.8

8.5

9.0

8,8

8.9

8.5

9.0

8.0

7J

il&3

5.4

4.2

2.0

0.8

16

1-96

83
8.4

8.6

8.9

8.6

91

90

90

8.7

91

83

8.3

69

6.3

5.5

4.1

4.0

6.0

10.6

2-96

8.5

8.7

9.0

IP #

9.2

9.0

9.1

8.8

9.2

8.4

8.5

7.3

SM

8.2

5.2

5.4

7.3

10.3

9.9

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are final estimates.




21

4.5

884,605
884.524

-0 0

888.023
910.707
932.556

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
2-96

1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

209,321
48,195

205,150
47,497

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

Imports
-237,196
Goods and Services
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -49,799

-229,377
-47,235

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
-45,000

-211,472
-42,462

Balance on Current Account

-38,779

-34,869

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-49,165
-523
-48,213

-68,750
17
-68,615

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

80,315
13,197
67,118

99,471
52,021
47,450

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421
37,380
78,041

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
981.0
951.8
962.4
954.6

Billion
-72.3
-28.0
-24.9
17.5

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

13.3
13.6

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-62.6
-83.0
-96.2
-111.0

1994: 1
2
3
4

1013.5
991.3
1003.8
1018.3

15.0
14.4
14.4
14.4

20.8
74.1
51.1
52.4

0.3
1.1
0.7
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-106.5
-129.7
-150.6
-158.9

-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.2

1995: 1
2
3
4

1043.8
1018.5
1085.9
1138.9

14.6
14.1
14.9
15.5

71.2
84.4
82.7
81.7

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-146.2
-150.8
-138.1
-110.2

-2.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.5

1996: 1
2

1133.8
1121.6

15.3
14.9

84.1
122.9

1.1
1.6

1068.9
1096.0

14.4
14.5

228.8
235.1

3.1
3.1

-129.9
-144.2

-1.7
-1.9

Percent
15.2
14.6
14.6
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2

Net
Foreign
Investment
Percent
-1.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

4-91

6.3

1-92

29.0

2-92
3-92

9,9 11.7 -20.3
-7.0 -11.1 -33.0 -43.6

4-92

12.2

13.7

2,2

1-93

9.5

10.2

0.9

15.8 138.1
9.2 52.0

2-93

10.2

10.8

3.4

10.4

38.2

5,2

14.2

3-93

13.5

14.6

8.8

15.8

38.7

15.8

26.5

40.1

4-93

15.2

16.4

11.6

36.8

19.1

27.5

34.8

1-94

7.5

7.6

2.7

18.0
6.5

18.4

3.0

4.5

2-94

13.6

14.3

10.4

15.0

27.3

14.7

18.6

3-94

13.3

13.9

10.3

14.4

25.0

14.0

17.1

17.7

12.7

4-94

12.9

13.5

10.2

13.9

23.1

13.4

15.9

16.2

11.9

1-95

10.6

11.0

7.8

10.8

18.6

9.7

11.5

11.1

6.8

2-95

10.6

7,7

10.5

17.4

9.4

10.9

10.5

6,8

3-95

10.3
12.7

13.1

10.5

13.3

20.1

12.9

14.6

14.7

4-95

12.2

12.6

10.2

12.7

18.9

12.2

13.7

13.7

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
244.4
273.4

56.6

258.3
223.8
278.0
-3.0

275.9
285.2
310.3
29.6

331.1

1.5 -13.7 ■■42.5
19.7

13.6

288.3

6.4
7.6

96.9
47.1

10.0

7.9

33.1

9.5

2.8

18.9

0.5

-4.0 -15.4

3.4

16.3

1.9

-0.6

-5.1

6,5

11.8

9.5

21.9

10.8

11.0

11.7

28.3

54.5

11.1

9.0

19.4

9.8

10.0

20.1

27.5

5.3

341.5
349.7
9,0

357.3
342.7
348.1
388.1

1-96

12.7

13.1

10.8

13.2

19.0

12.9

14.3

14.3

12.0

10.2

19.5

9,8
11.3

11.5

12.0

20.2

25.1

12.6

20.4

2-96

12.4

12.8

10.6

12.9

18.2

12.5

13.8

13.7

11.6

9.9

18.1

10.8

10.9

11.3

17.5

20.5

10 9

13.8

7.6

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

393.1
411.8
419.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

1993: 1
2
3
4

427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8

275.9
285.2
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

509.8
519.2
524.9
553.6

1994: 1
2
3
4

459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9

288.3
341.5
349.7
357.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

543.2
574.8
590.9
600.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

617.3
617.0
625.8
630.8

1996: 1
2

645.1
655.8

411.8
419.4

239.9
243.1

465.6
471.0

-17.4
-11.0

20.4
22.3

654.8
658.4

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1990
1991
National income accounts basis

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal G overnm ent Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors

Gross
Federal
Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and T rusts

Net
Federal
Debt

1993: March
June
September
December

4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

2875.4
2949.9
2993.0
3046.5

562.1
570.9
593.8
619.2

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.2
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.3
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.4
658.1
684.5

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.9

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.9
790.1
851.1
856.6

1996: March
June

5125.8
5153.5

1378.7
1407.1

3748.1
3747.0

387.9
384.3

3360.4
3359.0

925.9
966.3

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal, State and Local

Federal

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1509.7
1521.5
1534.7
1557.7

-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.9
2138.5
2154.5
2175.4

-204.0
-161.0
-159.5
-118.3

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.6
1552.5
1575.7
1606.4

-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.2
2193.5
2232.2
2275.2

-117.9
-64.4
-88.9
-90.7

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1621.9
1644.3
1645.0
1649.3

-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.0
2328.7
2348.8
2365.0

-73.7
-62.1
-64.6
-66.4

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1
2

1523.1
1575.6

1678.3
1702.3

-155.2
-126.7

2338.5
2402.0

2402.7
2427.6

-64.3
-25.7

207.6
219.3

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

Grants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

(1) Federal Grants-in-Ald to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.2

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.4

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.9

-255.6

1994

1257.7

1460.8

-203.1

1377.0

1567.3

-190.2

1995

1355.2

1519.1

-163.9

1478.4

1640.1

-161.7

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-91

2*92
3-92

3-91
3,0
5.5
4.7
3.0

4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94

5.4
4.2
5.8
5.4
6.4
5.6
6.9
6.4

6.2
5.8
6.8
5.9
7.2
6.7

4*94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

6,6
6.8

6.9
7.1

7.0
6.6
6.3
6.4
6.8

7.3
6.8
6.5
6.6

3-91

4-91
1-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

:

8.0
5.6
3.0
6,0
4.4

1,160.9
1,183.4
*« 1 1 1

3.3
0.6
5.3
3.5
5.9
5.4
6,6
5.7
7.2
6.6

-2.0
6.4
3.6
6.6
5.8
72
6.0
7.7
6.9

7.0

6.8
7.0
7,2
6.7
6.4
6.5
7.0

7,1
7.3
7.5
7.0
6.7
6.7
7.2

4-91

1-92

2-92

15.5
65
9.6
7.9
9.2
74
9.1
81
8.2
8.3
8.4
7.8
7.3
7.4

;

:
-1.7
8.7
54
7.8
5.9

15.9
9.2
10.9
7.9

8.1 - m m
71
86

1,271.3
2.9
8.5
53
8.8
72

14.5
6.6

7.8

67
6.8
7.3

8,6
8.8
8.9
8.0
7.5
7.5
8.0

7.5
7.8
8.0
7.2
6.7
6.8
7.4

10.8
83
8.4
8.6
8.8
7.8
7.1
7.2
7.8

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

7,3
7.5
7.8
71

1,193.1
1,187.0
1,230.5
1,225.2

■

1,280.3
1,324.4
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1

:: ::

-0.8

6.9
7.5
7.8
6.8
6.2
6.4
72

19.7
10.1
9.6
96
9.6
8.1
7.3
7.3
8.1

65
7.3
60
5.3
5.7
6.7

9.3
7.2
62
6.4
7.8

5.S
60
7A

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

9.0
64

1.2
4.9

8,7
9.2

Second quarter data are final estimates.

9.7
9,7
6.7

9,7
5.2
0.9
4.2 I P
51
3.6
6.9
62
1-95

2-95

2.2
50
8.1

78
11.1

14.5

3-95

4-95

1-96

1,416.3
1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7
1,523.1
1,575.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1, 1996

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-91
1-92
2*92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4*95
1-96
2-96

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter

3-91
102
12.7
10.5
8.7
8.3
6.9
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
4.8
4.9

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

Annual Rates

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
1,399.8
1,450.7

" ' -*l
15.4
10.7
8.1
7.8
6.2
5.7
5.4
5.5
4.2
4.2
4.4
4,7
4.6
4.7
4.4

5.1
5.0
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.7

4.2
4.4
4,4

3-91

4-91

6.2
4.7
3.2
5.4
5.0
3.4
4.1
3.9
3.3
3.3
3.8
3.8
4.2
2.4
2.9
3.1
27
3.4
3.0
3.8
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.9 ¡ f i l l
3.5
37
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.5
B
J
lilS ill
1-92

2-92

1,472.8
1,484.5
I

6.9
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.9
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.6

3.0
3.3

$.7

3.5

3-92

4-92

0.1
1,6
2.2
3.2
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.2
32
3.5
32

32
3.3
4.3
1.6
2.3
2.9

3.5
4.8
1.1
2.0
2.8
3.7
37

3*8
3.6
3.9
4.0
3.5
35
as . m
3.6
3.6
3.8
0*0
1-93

2-93

6.1
-0.0
1.5
2.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
35
3.3
36
3£
3-93

-5.8
*0,7
15

4-93

9 7

1-94

1,509,5
1,509.7

v %"

S

s:\ j?;

^

6.1

7.1 I Ü Ü I I
6.0
6.0
5M
&7
5.T" 5.9
4.4
3.2
47
47
3.7
Z 9 ''" m j 4.1 • S
SSSS!..i
3.4
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.5
a * i 4.7
3 ,r :
3.3

Second quarter data are final estimates.




4.7
5.4
6.3
57

;

2-94

3-94

s

3.9

4M : 5.6
32
2.7
3.6
3-9

2.9
2.3
3.5
3L9

2.8
3u$

4-94

1-95

2-95

1,644.3
1,645.0
1,649.3
1,678.3
-.'•’•f; .. , 1 ,7 0 «

0.2

OM

1.0
4.1

7.2

3-95

4-95

- 1,921.5
1,534.7
\ H I 1,557.7
1,534.6
1,552.5
1,575.7
1,606.4
1,621.9

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 1,1996

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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