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National Economic Trends
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

October 1983

In the third quarter of this year, measures of economic activity
generally surpassed the previous peak levels attained in the third quarter of
1981. Preliminary estimates indicate that real GNP expanded at a 7.9 percent
annual rate in the third quarter, bringing it to a level almost 2 percent higher
than at the cyclical peak two years earlier. The average growth rate of real
GNP since the recession trough in the fourth quarter of last year has been 6.7
percent.
The principal component leading the recovery of real GNP has been
gross private domestic investment. Most of the rise in this component has been
due to a reversal of the earlier inventory sell-off. Nonetheless, real fixed
investment, which excludes inventory investment, rose at a 16.6 percent rate in
the three quarters since the recession trough. While this growth was primarily
associated with a surge in housing investment, the pace of plant and equipment
investment also has been unusually strong for a recovery. Real nonresidential
fixed investment rose at a 6.9 percent rate.
Other components of GNP have been somewhat weaker during the
three quarters of the recovery. Real personal consumption expenditures rose at
a 5.4 percent rate while government expenditures declined at a 1.6 percent rate.
Net exports declined from $23.0 billion to $8.7 billion (both in 1972 prices) during
the three quarters since the recession trough. A modest rebound of exports of
goods and services, up at a 3.3 percent rate, was more than offset by a surge in
imports, up at a 21.2 percent rate.
Employment also has recovered. In the third quarter of this year,
civilian employment rose at a 6.8 percent rate, putting it 1.1 percent above its
level in the third quarter of 1981. The labor force has grown 3.3 percent since
the cycle peak, however, so that the unemployment rate in September, 9.3
percent of the civilian labor force, was well above the 7.2 percent reached at the
previous cycle peak in July 1981.
Price increases have continued to be moderate, although some
measures have accelerated recently. The implicit price deflator for GNP rose at
a 4.1 percent rate during the three quarters of the recovery. Consumer prices
rose at a 5.4 percent rate during the six months ending in September, up sharply
from a 0.5 percent rate of increase over the previous six months. Producer
prices have accelerated somewhat less, rising at a 2.8 percent rate in the past
six months, compared with a 0.1 percent rate in the preceding six months.
—John A. Tatom

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of this Bank or the Federal Reserve System.



T O T A L C I V I L I A N EM P LO YM E NT
COMPOUNDED A N N U AL R A T E S O f CHANGE
1

n TH

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

3 —82

— 1*2

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0 .1

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2 -8 3

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OF PE RSO NS
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99,458
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2 -8 2

3— 82

4 -8 2

5 -82

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

10-82

11-82

12-82

1 -83

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

I n it ia l

1 00 i7 8 6

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101.5 63
4 .6

101»945

8 -8 3

month

P A Y R O L L EMP LOY ME NT
COMPOUNDED A NN UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L
2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

3 -8 2

-2 .6
-1 .8

-1 .3

-2 .1

-1 .9

-1 .6

9 -8 2

1 0-82

TH O U S A N D S
OF PER S ON S

HQNTH

11-82

12-82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8 -8 3

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6 -8 2

8 -8 2

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5 -8 2

7 -8 2

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4 -8 2

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9 0.024
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12-82

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1 -83

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-0 .2

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0 .4

0 .8

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1 .2

1 .8

2 .3

2 .9

2 .9

3 .8

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5 .0

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9 -8 ?

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10.3

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

1 0-82

11-82

12-62

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 —83

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8 -8 3

8 8.93 8
-2 .0

IN IT IA L
P-

8 8.665
8 8.886
88.745
8 8.81 4
8 9.09 0
4 ,6

89.421
89.84490.152
-5 .4

8 9.73 5P
90.468P

MONTH

PR ELIM IN A R Y




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS
OCTOBER 7# 1983

2

.

EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

MILLIONS

1975

OF

RATIO
P ER SONS

1976

SEASON ALLY

19 77

1978

M ILLIONS

AD JU S TE D

197 9

1980

1981

1982

OF

SCALE

P ER SONS

1983

SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IND ICA TE D.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.

SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT
SEASONALLY

PERCENT

RATE

ADJUSTED

PERCENT
12. 0

.

I

l l . l

10.

1 0 .0

9.

9.C

8.

8. (

6.

6 .C




5

.

!).(

t.

A A

1975

1976

19 77

1978

1979

1980

1981
SOURCE:

U .S .

1982

1983

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt

SEPTEMBER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

3

LOUIS

CONSUMER P R I C E

1NOEX FOR A L L URBAN CO NS U M ER S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D *
COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S O f CHANGE

TERM INAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L
2 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

1 0-82

MONTH

11-82

_ 1 S ì l 7.»1C0 -

1 2-82

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3 -9 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

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âü^4

$ -8 2 ~ 6 - 8 2 ' ' 7 -6 2

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1 1-82

12-82

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r• !
C
D

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Z - S 2 '" 3 -" 0 '2

♦D A T A B E G I N N I N G

4
_—^

1983

-

INCORPORATES

RENTAL

EQ UIVALENC E

2 9 4 , 1__
-3 .2

I n it ia l
MEASURE.

2V3t2_.
U A l ÉL-

29<?,9
2 9 7 . i>

_ 4 .9

5- e j

TERMINAL
MONTH
____________ 2 - 8 2
3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -9 2

6 -9 2

7 -8 2

7^8

3-83

R E S t HVfc tiANK

OF

ST.

LO U IS

1 R I C E I N D E X * F I N I S H E D GOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D *
P
COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L

3 -8 2

_ £ 9£ ^ 2

m onth

PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
OC TO B E R 2 5 , 1983

PRO DU C ER

_

_ . £ 9 Ju 3

6 -8 2

9 -8 2

10-82

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10-82

11-82

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4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8 -8 3

1,8

♦ O A T A F OR FOU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D




TO R E F L E C T

LATE

1 .4

1*2
286^

I N I T I A L HONTH
R E P O R T I N G __________________

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAWK OF ST.
OCTOBER 14, 1983

4

LOUIS




R A T IO

PRICES

SCALE

R A T IO

SCALE

CONSUMER PR I CE INDEX BEGINNING JANUARY 1976 IS FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) .
C PI-U DATA SEC INN INC 1083 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOfl PERIODS
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt

INDICATED.

SEPTEMBER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF 81.

r a t io

SCALE

PRODUCER P R I C E S

1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

PERC ENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES Of CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S
L A TEST

R A T IO

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

DATA PLO T TED ,

SEPTEM BER

SCALE

1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

IN D IC A T E D .

PR EPA RED

5

LOUIS

BY FED ERAL

RESERVE

BANK OF S 1 . L O U IS

PRODUC ER P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER FOOD S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D *
_____________________ COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S J3F CHAWG0______________________________
_
2 -8 2
-

_____ I H I T I A L

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-1 .5

l. l

1 .2

2 .4

3 .2

4 .2

5 .0

1 2.8

3 -8 3

1 .3

1 .6

-0 .1

-0 .4

-1 .1

1 .3

1 .3

2*4

3*0

3 .8

4 ,1

7 *4

0 .8

0 .3

2 .6

2 .8

3*9

1 .8

2 .7

3 .1

3*7

3*8

5 .4

3 .1

3 .5

_ -5 .7

0 .8

1 .5

1*7

2 .0

1 .9

2 .7

0 .3

-0 ,3

-6 ,6

4 -8 3

2 .1

2 .4

1 .0

5 -8 3

1 .6

1 .8

0 .5

0 .2

-0 .2

1 .7

6 -8 3

1 .0

1 .2

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .9

0 .8

6 , 4 ____ 9 , 5

___5 t 7

2 6 0 .9
261*4

2*3
7 , 8 ___ 1 3 . 6

7 -8 3

0 .5

0 .6

—0 . 6

-0 .9

-1 .4

0 .2

0 .1

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8

0*5

1 ,0

-1 * ^

8 -8 3

0 .7

0 .9

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .9

0 .5

0 .5

1 .0

1 .2

1 .3

1 .1

1 .6

-0 ,2

9 -8 3

1 .1

1 .3

0 .2

0 .0

-0 .3

1 ,1

1 .1

1 -6

_ 1 -8

_

2*0

1*9

Z*A

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

10-82

11-82

1 2-82

1 -8 3

* O A T A F OR FOU R MONTHS

AGO R E V I S E D

TO R E F L E C T

LATE

.

IN IT IA L
REPORTING

__ 2 6 1 . 2
-7 ,1

259.6

-3 * 3

-1 .1

5 .2

2 60 .7

-Q »6

1 .9

6 .6

8 .1

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8 -6 3

-7 ,3
-0 ,6

-3*9

1*0

0 ,8

-1*6

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -6 3

5 -8 3

HONT H

PR O O U C E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O O S , E X C L U D I N G
___________________________ C OMPOUND E D ANN U A L
in it ia l

2 6 2 .9
-7 ,5

FOODS -

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*

month

MONTH
2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

10-82

11-62

1 2-82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 - 8 3 ___6 - 6 3 ___7 - 8 3 ___6 - f l 3

—3 »4
—3 »4

- 2 »3

-1 * 3

1 .5

3 »2

6 .6

. 5 #9

6 -6 2

- 3 >4

—2 » 7

9 ,1

14 , 8

14,4

6 .1

8.6

12.1

10.6

9*7

8 .0

8 -8 2

7 6 0 -1
15.1

4 .2

5 .6
5 .6

7 .2

5 .0

6 .1

7 .5

6*3

4*9

5 .9

7 .1

5 ,9

3 .1

9 -8 2

3*8

7 .5

5 .1

2 .0

2.2
2 .7

3 .2

2 .8
2*9

3*3

2 .4

2 .8

9 -6 3

3-82

4 -6 2

2 .2

1 ,1

0 .6

0 .8

-0 ,1

1*6____ 0 . 2

-0 ,6

-1* 1

" Z i Z ___- 4 , 4

-Q t?

- It l

3 *5

-1 ,8

1*6

2 .7

1 .8

2*9
2*7

1 *9

1*5

1*4

1*0

6 -6 2

7 -8 2

8 -82

9-6 2

10-62

3*6

5-62

1*1

-Q ,6

2 .6

♦ O A T A FOR F OU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D




9*5

«4

3*2

8 -8 3

7*7

6 . 5 ____ 6 , 8 ____ 4 , 2
-6 .0

3 .2

2*4

2 ,0

6 .1

-1*1

2 .7

2 -82

7 -8 3

5 , 3 ____ 4 , 5 ____ 6 , Q

J U ? ____9 -8 ____ P t ^

1 .9

1.8

288 . 9

_ l i l ____ ________ & ±1____ 0*2 ___ - 1 . 1
3 .4

1 .5

6 -6 3

3 .7

4 .9

-4 .4

- 2 tl

-1 5 .2

-6 , 5

289_*5

- 1. 2

- 7 , 2___ - 2 , 9

2 89 *2
-4 .5

> 6 , 4 ___- 3 , 3 ___- 4 , 3 ___ - 4 * 1

-4 tl

- It l

- I t l ____

0*3__ - 1 . 0

-1 * 8 ____1*1____1 ,7

1*2

- 0 * 7 ___~ Q* A

2 8 8 ,4

3*8

8 .0

1 0 .5

- U p ____ 1*6____ 2*2

3*9

6*7

7 *3

4 .2

2 -0 ____Lt6___ K 5 ____LjJ____r fl»?_________ 2x5___ 2*6

4*0

6 .2

6*4

4 . 4 ___ 4 . 6

TO R E F L E C T

0*9

0*2

-0 * 2

1*8

2*3

3 *4

5*0

4*9

3*1

2 .5

Q .4

11-62 1 2 - 82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -6 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8-83

I N I T I A L MONTH
L A T E R E P O R T I N G ________________

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS
OCTOBER 14* 1983

6

INDUSTRIAL
RATIO

PRODUCTION

SCALE

RATIO

1967-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

SCALE

1967-100

1980

1981

1982

1983

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS I HO I C A T E D .
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.

SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED SY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST .

LOUIS

IN D U S T R IA L PR ODUCTION
CONPOMNQEp A N N U A L R A T E S O F CHANGE

JLR? INAL_____________________________________________________________ INI T I O HQNTH______ ________1

H ÛN TH

2 -6 2
3 -8 2

3 -6 2

4 -6 2

5 -6 2

6 -6 2

7 -6 2

6 -6 2

9 -6 2

10— 82

11-82

1 2-82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

_____ ______________ _______ ____ ___________ 1967 » 100
3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -6 3

7 -8 3

8 -8 3

-9 .6

1 4 1 .7

4 -8 2

— 10 *8 - 1 2 . 0

5 -6 2

-1 0 .0

-1 0 .1

-6 .2

6 -« 2

-6 .6

-8 .2

-6 .3

-4 .2

7 -8 2

-6 .7

-6 .0

-3 .9

-1 .7

0 .9

8 -8 2

-6 .2

-5 .5

-3 .8

-2 .3

-1 .3

-3 .4

9 -6 2

—6 . 6

-6 .1

-4 .9

-4 .0

-4 .0

-6 .3

-9 .1

10-82

-7 .5

-7 .1

-6 .3

-5 .9

-6 .3

-8 .6

-1 1 .1

-1 3 .1

11-82

-7 .4

-7 .1

-6 .4

-6 .1

* 6 .4

-6 .2

-9 .7

-1 0 .0

-6 .8

12-62

-6 .4

-6 .1

-5 .3

-4 .9

-5 .0

-6 .1

-6 .8

-6 .0

-2 .2

2 .7

1 -6 3

-4 .2

-3 .6

-2 .7

-1 .9

-1 .6

-2 .0

-1 .7

0 .2

5 .1

11.6

2 1.4

2 -8 3

-3 .4

-2 .8

-1 .6

-1 .1

-0 .6

-0 .9

-0 .4

1 .4

5 .4

9 .8

13.6

3 -8 3

-1 .9

-1 .2

-0 .2

0 .7

1 .3

1 .3

2 .0

4 .0

7 .8

11.8

15.0

11*9

17.8

4 -8 3

-0 .2

0 .6

1 .7

2 .7

3 .4

3 .7

^♦ 6

6 .7

1 0.4

1 4.3

17.3

1 6.0

2 1.2

2 4.7

1 3 9 .2
1 3 8 .7

1 3 8 .4
1 37 .3
L3 5 .7
1 3 4 .9
1 3 5 .2
1 3 7 .4
6 .3

1 38.1
1 40 .0
1 42 .6

5 -8 3

0 .8

1 .6

2 .8

3 .7

4 .5

4 .9

5 .8

7 .9

11.2

14.6

17.1

16.1

19.5

2 0.4

16.2

6 -8 3

1 .8

2 .6

3 .8

4 .8

5 .6

6 .0

7 .0

8 .9

1 2.1

15.1

1 7.3

16.4

19.1

1 9.6

17.1

7 -8 3

3 .3

4 .2

5 .3

6 .4

7 .2

7 .8

8 .9

10.8

1 3.9

1 6.8

18.9

18.5

21.2

2 2 .0

21.1

23.6

2 9.6

8 -8 3

3 .9

4 .8

5 .9

7 .0

7 .8

8 .4

9 .4

1 1.3

1 4.0

1 6.6

1 8.5

1 8.1

20.2

2 0.7

1 9.7

20.8

2 2 .3

15.4

9 -8 3

4 .7

5 .6

6 .7

7 .7

8 .6

9 .1

1 0.2

11.9

1 4.6

1 6 .9

1 8.6

1 8.3

2 0.1

20.5

1 9.7

20 . 6

2 1.5

1 7.6

19.8

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -6 2

8 -6 2

9 -8 2

10-82

1 1-82

1 2-82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -8 3

8 -83

IN IT IA L
P-

1 4 4 .4
1 7 .9

146.4
1 4 9 .6
1 51 .4 P
1 5 3 . 7P

HONT H

P R E L IM IN A R Y




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE
OCTOBER 14, 1983

7

BANK OF ST.

LOUIS

PERSONAL
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLION S

MO N T HL Y

OF D O L L A R S

I N CO ME

TOTAL S AT

AN N U A L

RATIO

RATES

TRILLION S

ADJ USTED

seasonally

2.9

1

2.8

.

2.5
2.4
2.3

■ ^ 2 .7 8 1 0

, 'I
~

A

SCALE

DOLLARS

+* .fr

2.7
2.6

OF

/
+ 5. 9 z / /

2.2
/

2. I
? .0

.9
♦8

■■■■

W J

7

Ÿ /

.6
.5
♦4
.3
.2

* $
M

$
t

t

.0

1 975

19 76

<

*

«or«* -

Ü

'

(1

1

:

?\

*

1977

19 78

19 79

19 80

1981

SOURCE: U . S .

1982

1

*

1

I

1983

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN DIC ATE D.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED»

SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S ’ . LOU IS

P E R S O N A L IN COME
COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE
t e r m in a l
month

IN IT IA L
2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

i>-6 2

6— 02

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

9 -8 2

10-82

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T ES

MONTH

1 1-82

12-82

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

3 -8 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -8 3

7 -6 3

8 -8 3

7 .7

2 # 5 3 5 .8

¿ .-8?

L.. «;

K L.

5 -8 2

6 .1

7 .9

9 .3

6 -8 ?

«=;. »

5 .0

S .7

?. i

7 -8 2

e .7
;

6 .5

A.A

s. . ?

2 .5 4 9 .0
2 .5 6 8 .0
2 ,5 7 2 .5
A A

2 »5 8 9 .8

8 -8 2

4 .5

4 .9

4 .5

2 .9

3 .4

-1 .4

9 -8 ?

A .6

L. . Q

L. A

*.q

3 .9

1*8

5 .1

1 0-8?

?

*.

*;^

u ^7

4 .4

7 .4

9 .8

11-82

5.5

5 .8

5 .7

5 .1

5 .7

5 .1

7 .4

8 .5

7 .2

1 2 —8?

5 .5

-8

S .7

s .?

5 .7

5 .2

6 .9

7 .5

6 .4

5 .6

1 -8 3

5 .3

S. A

S. c

>. f

5 .^

4 .9

6 .2

6 .5

5 .4

4 .5

2 * 5 8 6 .7
2 .5 9 7 .4
2 .6 1 7 ,8
2 .6 3 3 .1
2 * 6 4 5 .0
3 .5

2 *6 52 .6

2 -8 ?

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4 .3

4 .6

«.1

5 .0

5 .0

3 .8

2 .7

1 .3

-0 .9

3 -8 3

5 .1

5 .3

S .?

4 . fi

5 .1

4 .7

5 .6

5 .7

4 .9

4 .3

3 .9

4 .0

9 .2

4 -3 3

5 .4

5 .6

5 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .1

6 .0

6 .1

5 .5

5.2

5 .1

5 .6

9 .0

8 .8

2 *6 50 .5
2 .6 7 0 .1
2 .6 8 9 .0

5 -8 3

5*9

6 .2

6 .2

5 .9

6 .2

6 .0

6 .9

7 .1

6 .7

6 .7

6 .9

7 .7

10.8

11.6

1 4 .4

6 -8 3

5 .9

6 .2

6 .1

5 .9

6 .2

6 .0

6 .8

7 .0

6 .6

6 .6

6 .7

7 .4

9 .6

9 .7

10.1

6 .0

7 -8 3

6 .0

6. ?

6 .2

6 .0

6 .3

6 .1

6 .8

7 .0

6 .7

6 .6

6 .7

7 .3

9 .0

8 .9

9 .0

6 .4

6 .7

8 -8 3

5 .9

6 .0

6 .0

5 .8

6 .1

5 .9

6 .5

6 .7

6 .4

6 .3

6 .3

6 .8

8 .1

7 .9

7 .6

5 .5

5 .2

3 .7

9 -8 3

6 .2

6 .3

6 .3

6 .2

6*4

6 .3

6 .9

7 .1

6 .8

6 .8

6 .9

7 .3

8 .6

8 .5

8 .4

7 .0

7 .3

7 .6

11.6

4 -* 2

•>-*2

6 —>52

7 -8 7

9 -8 2

9— 8 Z

10-82

n -82

12-82

1 -8 3

2-Ô 3

3 -8 3

4 -S T

5— 8 3

6 -8 3

? -d 3

8 -8 3

2=B7"




2 .7 1 9 .3
2 *7 32 .6
2 *7 47 .4
2 .7 5 5 .7
2 »7 8 1 .0 P

INITIAL HCWTH

TR5PARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T , LOUIS
OCTOBER 19* 1983

8

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES

SCALE

BILLION S

1 97 5

OF

RATIO
DOLLARS

197 6

SEASONALLY

1977

19 7 8

BILLIONS

ADJUSTED

1979

1980

1981

SOURCE:

U .S .

1982

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

1983

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IND IC A TE D.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.

AUGUST,

SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

R E T A IL SALES
C OH PO UN OE D A N N U A L R A T E S
____

TERM INAL
MONTH
2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

____
5 -8 2

_______
6 -8 2

7 -8 2

8 -8 2

IN IT IA L

9 -8 2

10— 82

11-82

LOU IS

OP C HA N GE

MONTH________________________________________________________________________ M I L L I O N S OF
W I L a AS
2 -8 3
3 -6 3
4 -8 3
5 -8 3
6 -8 3
7 -6 3
8 -8 3
1 2-82
1 -8 3

3 -8 2

—4 *6

4 -6 2

2 .9

1 1.0

87,701

5 -8 2

1 3.2

2 3.3

3 6.9

6 -6 2

1 .9

4 .2

0 .9

-2 5 .6

7 -8 2

3 .9

6 .2

4 .6

-8 .6

1 2.4

8 -6 2

2 .3

3 .8

2 .1

-7 .5

3 .2

-5 .2

9 -6 2

3 .6

5 .1

3 .9

-3 .0

6 .0

2 .9

1 0-82

4 .9

6 .3

5 .6

0 .2

8 .0

6 .6

1 3.0

1 4.3

1 1-62

6 .8

8 .3

7 .9

3 .7

10.9

10.5

1 6.3

18.6

23.1

12-62

6 .0

7 .3

6 .8

3 .1

8 .9

8 .2

11.9

1 1.9

1 0.7

-0 .4

1 -6 3

5 .3

6 .3

5 .8

2 .5

7 .2

6 .4

8 .9

8 .2

6 .3

-1 .3

-2 .1

88,468
90,813
86,603
8 9,469
89,06 9
89,697

1 1.7
90,905

92,492
9 2,459
92,295

4 .3

3 .7

0 .5

4 .4

3 .3

4 .8

3 .4

0 .9

—5 . 6

-8 .1

-1 3 .8

6 .3

5 .9

3 .2

7 .1

6 .4

8 .2

7 .6

6 .3

2 .5

3 .5

6 .5

3 1.4

7 .2

8 .1

7 .9

5 .6

9 .3

9 .0

10.9

1 0.8

1 0.2

7 .8

1 0.0

1 4.4

3 1 .7

3 2.1

5 -6 3

9 .3

1 0.4

1 0.4

8 .4

12.2

1 2.1

1 4.3

1 4.6

1 4.6

13.3

16.2

2 1 .3

3 5.9

3 8 .2

4 4.7

6 -6 3

9 .3

1 0.3

1 0.3

8 .5

1 1.9

1 1.9

13.8

1 4.0

1 3 .9

1 2.7

1 5.1

1 8.8

2 8 .7

2 7 .9

2 5.8

9 .4

7 -6 3

9 .0

9 .9

9 .9

8 .2

1 1.3

11.2

12.9

13.0

1 2.8

11.6

1 3.4

16.3

23.4

2 1 .5

18.2

6 .8

8 -6 3

7 .4

8 .1

7 .9

6 .2

9 .0

8 .7

1 0.0

9 .8

9 .4

6 .0

9 .0

10.7

1 5 .5

1 2.5

8 .1

-1 .9

-7 .1

-1 7 .3

9 -6 3

8 .0

8 .8

8 .6

7 .1

9 .7

9 .5

10.7

10.7

1 0.3

9 .1

10.3

1 1.9

1 6.1

1 3.8

10.4

3 .2

1 .2

-0 .2

20.4

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -6 2

5 -8 2

6 -8 2

7 -6 2

«-8 2

5- ¥ 3

4 -8 3

5 -8 3

6 -fy

7 -6 3

8 -5 3 ~

w

3 .5
5 .5

♦

91,16 4

2 -6 3
3 -6 3

u * * r re -e
IN IT IA L

1 -8 5 “

93,263
9 5,449
98,43 1

MONTH

E - ES TIH ATEO




OCTOBER

9

13,

19 83

99,173
99,521

4 .3

9 7,955P
99,4806

H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N « B U S I N E S S S E C TO R
COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CH AN GE

TERMINAL_________________________________________________________IN IT IA L QUARTER________________________________________________________ 197 7 »

'QU A RT Ef t

3 -7 8

"
'
4 -7 8

"

1 -7 9

4 -7 8

10.5
9 .8

9 .9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1-81

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

11.1

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

9 .8

1 -7 9

8 .6

1 1 2 .2
1 1 5 .2
1 1 7 .6

3 -7 9

9 .9

1 0.0

9 .4

10*2

4 -7 9

9 .7

9 .6

9 .1

9 .4

8 .6

1 -8 0

9 .9

9 .9

9 .6

1 0.0

9 .9

120* 5
12 3 * 0
1 2 6 .3

10.2

1 0.3

10.1

10.5

10.5

1 1.5

1 1 .9

Ui
1
C
O
O

1 1.2

2 -8 0

10*1

10.2

10.0

10.3

1 0.3

10.9

10.7

4 -8 0

1 0. 1

10.1

9 .9

1 0.2

1 0.2

1 0.6

10.4

9 .6

9 .7

1 -8 1

10.2

10.2

10.1

1 0.3

1 0.4

1 0.7

1 0.6

10.2

10.5

11.3

2 -8 1

9 .9

9 .9

9 .8

10.0

9 .9

10.2

1 0.0

9 .5

9 .4

9 .3

3 -8 1

9 .9

9 .9

9 .8

9 .9

9 .9

10.1

9 .9

9 .5

9 .5

9 .4

8 .5

9 .6

4 -8 1

9 .7

9 .7

9 .6

9 .7

9 .6

9 .8

9 .6

9 .2

9 .1

9 .0

8 .2

8 .6

7 .6

1 -8 2

9 .7

9 .7

9 .6

9 .7

9 .6

9 .7

9 .6

9 .2

9 .2

9 .1

8 .5

8 .9

8 .6

2 -8 2

<>.5

9 .4

9 .3

9 .4

9 .3

9 .4

9 .2

8 .8

8 .7

8 .6

8 .1

8 .2

7 .8

7 .8

6 .2

3 -8 2

9 .3

9 .3

9 .1

9 .2

9 .1

9 .2

9 .0

8 .6

8 .5

8 .4

7 .9

8 .0

7 .6

7 .5

6 .6

6 .9

9 .1

8 .9

8 .9

8 .8

8 .9

8 .7

8 .3

8 .2

8 .0

7 .6

7 .6

7 .2

7 .1

6 .3

6 .3

5 .7

4 -8 2

1

1QO

”

2 -7 9

1 29 .9
9 .6

1 32 .9
1 3 6 .0
1 3 9 .7
7 .4

142 *2
1 4 5 .5
1 4 4 .2
9 .5

1 51 .6
1 5 3 .9
156*5
1 5 8 ,7

0 .8

8 .7

8 .7

8 .6

8 .6

8 .4

8 .0

7 .9

7 .7

7 .3

7 .2

6 .8

6 .7

6 .0

5 .9

5 .4

5 .1

2 -8 3

8 .6

8 .5

8 .4

8 .4

9 .2

8 .2

8 .0

7 .7

7 .5

7 .3

6 .8

6 .8

6 .4

6 .2

5 .5

5 .3

4 .8

4 .3

3 .5

3— 70

4 -7 8

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 Ö

¿ -é ó

k
>

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -81

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

'

OUTPUT

'

8 .9

p

1 -8 3

I nIT ìa l

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 8

-0 .4
-1 .1

-2 .0

-1 .3

-2 .0

-2 .2

-1 .2

-1 .7

-1 .7

-1 .4

-0 .9

-1 .2

- l . l

-0 .7

0 .0

191 7 * 100 .
2 -9 i

3 -6 1

4 -8 1

-0 .8

1 -8 0

1-81

-2 .0

4 -7 9

QUARTER

4 -8 0

-2 .4

3 -7 9

3 -8 0

-1 .6

2 -7 9

1 -8 0

0 .8

1 -7 9

4 -7 9

o

1 -7 9

I
CO

IN IT IA L
4 -7 8

q u a r T èr

PER HOUR OF A L L P E R S O N S , B U S I N E S S S E C T O R
COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHA NG E

TERM INAL
OUÀftTÈft
3 -7 8

16Q *7
1 62 .1

100 .8
1ÜQ .4
9 9.8
9 9.3
9 9.1
0 .8

9 9 .3

2 -8 0

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .3

-1 .1

-1 .2

-3 .2

3 -8 0

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .0

-0 .7

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .8

1 .6

4 -8 0

-0 .7

-0 .8

-0 .7

-0 .5

-0 .2

0 .0

-0 .3

1 .2

98.5
96*9.
0 .8

9 9.1

1 -8 1

-0 .0

-0 .1

0 .0

0 .4

0 .8

1 .1

1 .2

2 .7

3 .3

5 .8

2 -8 1

0 .2

0 .1

0 .3

0 .6

1 .0

1 .3

1 .4

2 .6

3 .0

4 .1

3 -8 1

0 .6

0 .5

0 .8

1 .1

1 .5

1 .8

2 . 0

3 .1

3 .4

4 .3

3 .6

4 .8

4 -8 1

0 .2

0 .1

0 .3

0 .6

0 .8

1 .1

l.l

1 .8

1 .9

2 .1

0 .9

0 .2

-4 .2

1.5

1 .6

0 .6

0 .0

-2 .3

-0 .4

1 00 .5
2 .4
1 0 2 .3

0 .9

0 .9

1 .5

0 .5

0 .6

0 .6

1 .1

1 .0

l.l

0 .2

-0 .4

-2 ,1

-1 .0

-1 .6

3 -8 2

0 .1

0 .

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .7

0 .7

1 .2

1 .1

1 .1

0 .4

0 .0

-1 .2

-0 .1

0 .0

4 -8 2

0 .3

0 .3

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

0 .9

0 .9

1 .4

1 .3

1 .4

0 .8

0 .5

-0 .3

0 .7

l. l

2 .4

1 -8 3

0.4

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

0 .9

1 .0

l. l

1 .5

1 .4

1.5

1 .0

1 .4

2 ,4

2 ,8

2 .4

2 -8 3

0 .7

0 .7

0 .8

1 .0

1 .2

1 .4

1 .4

1 .8

1 .8

1 .9

1 .5

1 .4

0 .9

1 .8

2 ,2

3 .2

3 .7

4 .0

5 .6

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -6 2

1 -8 3

t

1 .6




CD
O

»—

CD

3 -7 3

1

IN IT IA L

o

0 .7

0 .3

o

0 .5

0 .1

00

0 .2

-0 .0

1

0 .1

0 .0

1

0 .1

o

1Q1

1 -8 2
2 -8 2

1 00 .7

1 01 .9

3 .2

1 0 2 .5

QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
AUGUST 26* 1983

10

_

PRODUCTIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND L A B O R C O S T S

SCALE

RATIO

1 9 7 7 -1 0 0

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1975

1976

1977

1978

1 97 9

1980

1981
SO U R C Ei

P E R C E N T A itS

A ftE A M K U A L H A T E S

LA T tS T

P L O T T tO ,

DATA

OF

CH AM CC F O R

P E R IO O S

SCALE

1 9 7 7 -1 0 0

0 .3 .

1982

1983

*E P A R T y tM T

Of

LA B O R

ST.

LO U IS

IN D IC A T E D .

2 MO O U A R T E R
PR EP AR ED

IT

FED ER AL

RES ERVE

BANK

Of

U N I T L A B O R C O S T S , B U S I N E S S S E C TO R
COMPOUNDED AN N UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE

4 -7 8

1

1

_____ ________ _____
k

T E R M I N A L _____________________________________ ____
OU A f t Te * 1 -7 9
2 -7 9
3-7 8
4 -7 8
3 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

_

IN IT IA L
3 -8 0

QUARTER

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

10 7 7 «
2 -91

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

3 -8 2

1 -8 2

4 -8 ?

in n

1- f t l

9 .5
114

1 -7 9

11 .1

12.8

2 -7 9

11.0

11 . 8

1 0.9

3 -7 9

11.4

1 2.0

11.6

fl

11 7 -fl
1 2.4

1 1 .0

11 . 4

1 0.9

1 1 .0

9 .6

1 -8 0

1 1 .0

11.3

1 0.9

10.9

10.1

1 0.7

(SI

12A

4 -7 9

1 1.9

11.7

12.0

11.8

1 3.0

t

1 5.3

1 2 7 .3

3 -8 0

11.1

1 1.3

1 1.1

1 1 .1

10.8

1 1.2

1 1.5

7 .0

4 -8 0

10.8

1 1 .0

1 0.7

1 0 .7

10.4

1 0.6

1 0.5

8 .2

1 -8 1

10.3

10.3

1 0.0

9 .9

9 .5

9 .5

9 .2

7 .2

7 .0

5 .4

2 -8 1

9 .8

9 .8

9 .5

9 .3

8 .8

8 .7

8 .3

6 .7

6 .3

5 .2

5 .0

3 -8 1

9 .3

9 .3

9 .0

8 .8

8 .3

8.1

7 .7

6 .3

5 .9

5 .0

4 .8

4 .6

4 -8 1

9 .5

9 .5

9 .2

9. 1

8 .7

8 .6

8 .3

7 .2

7 .1

6 .7

7 .2

8 .3

1 2.0

1 -8 2

9 .6

9 .6

9 .3

9 .2

8 .8

8 .8

8 .5

7 .6

7 .5

7 .3

7 .8

8 .8

1 1 .0

9 .9

9 .5

9 .2

9. 1

8 .8

8 .7

8 .5

7 .7

7 .6

7 .5

7 .9

8 .7

1 0. 1

9 .1

8 .2

3 -8 2

9 .2

9 .2

8 .9

8 .7

8 .4

8 .3

8 .1

7 .3

7 .3

7 .1

7 .4

7 .9

8 .7

7 .6

6 .5

4. 8

4 -8 2

8 .8

8 .7

8 .4

8 .3

8 .0

7 .8

7 .6

6 .8

6 .7

6 .5

6 .7

6 .9

7 .4

6 .3

5 .1

3 .6

2 .3

1 -8 3

8 .5

8 .4

8 .1

7 .9

7 .6

7 .5

7 .2

6 .5

6 .4

6 .1

6 .2

6 .4

6 .7

5 .7

4 .7

3 .5

2 .9

3.4

2 -8 3

7 .9

7 .8

7 .5

7 .3

7 .0

6 .8

6 .5

5 .8

5 .6

5 .3

5 .3

5 .3

5 .4

4 .4

3 .3

2 .1

U 2

0 ,6

3 -7 Ô

4 -7 0

1 -7 $

2 -7 6

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1

0
CD

11.6

2 -8 2




1 3 4 .4
8 .6

1 37 .2
139 .0
1 4 0 .7
142 .3
1 46 .4
1 4 9 .9
1 5 2 .9
154*7

1 5 6 .9
-2 .0 .

1 -8 3

I N I T I A L QUARTER

11

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA»*. OF S T .
AUGUST 2 6 , 1983

LOUIS

CROSS n a t i o n a l p r o o u c t i n c u r r e n t d o l l a r s
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______
IN IT IA L

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

QUARTER

QUARTER
- f c» 7 g ___ 1 - 7 9

2— 79

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -6 0

2 -8 0

3 rfiQ

4 - 8 0 ------ l ^ f i ] -------2=Ä1------- 3 - f l l

4 - f l l -------1 - 6 ?

? -* ?

1 -6 ?

4 -8 2

1 -6 3
2 ,3 3 5 .5

W 3 ______i ± 0 _

2 -7 9 _

_JS*6____Z*5_

? (f V 7 7 .

3 -7 9 ____ l p t 2

1 0 t?

13 ,6

9 ,7

9 .7

1 0 .8

4 -T 9_

r 4 .*4 ... A

8. 1 -

?<*5 0 ? , . 9

1 -8 0

1 0 .1

10 «2___LL*1____ 9*2___11 *J________

2 -8 0

8 .5

8 .3 ____ t* 4 ____ fiLjufi____6*2____Q*2_

- 3 - 8A ,

0 .7

8 .5 ____ g . 7

7 .5

2 .5 7 6 .4

7 .3

4 -6 0

9 .5

1 -8 1

1 0 .7

1 0 .8 ___L I ± i ___Iff t ?

11*3

2 -8 1

1 0 .3

1 0 .3

10*7

1 0 .6

3 -8 1

1 0 .5

1 0 .»

1 1 .0 ___1 0 .6

1 1 .0 ___lû * 2 ___1 3 ^ _ 13^2_ L3*3____9*9___13*3________
_
_

* -* 1

9 .9

1 0 .0

1 0 .2

1 0 .1

9 .0

9 .0

9 .1

2 - g ?.

9 .5 ____ 2*S____ 2*1____ 2*3____9 .5

1 Q .3

9 .8

1 0 .4

1 2 .9

9 .8

9 .5

9 .4

7 .9

8 .Q

8 .3 ____5*4____5*5____ 1*1___- 1 . 4

7 .5

V. V

7 .5

7 .1

V. V

r.

»

7 .8

7 .6

____2*2_

-2*7

3 .Ù 9 Û .7

6 .6 ____4*0____4*5____ 2*^____2L*6____3*5____2*6____ 1*5_______
_5*2____ 5*û____3* Z_

------- k
xJL -----------VIA

3 ,0 2 1 .4

■2 .5 .

4 .9 ____ 1*2____2*6____4 .6

N
8 , Q ____ 1 6 ____ 1 *6 ____ L t 2____ L l 5 _

_ _— ■ _ _ _ T *
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^

.

g*5_ _1*2____5*1____2*Û____8*0____ 5*6____M

7 ,9

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6*6

.

1 1 .7 ___]SUâ ____ Z*Ä____ft*4____3L-JZ_

1 1 .4

8 .4

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2 0 .5

1 4 .0 ___13.3

_ t* Q ____Z*£____ft*à____ft*2____1*2_

- i ± 2 ______i d t ____ 1 x 2 ____ 5 ^ _

8 .0

1 5 .5
lf l.O

8 .7 ____ ft*3_

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1 2 .6

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3 .7

5 .Q ____4*4____ 5jl 3____8 .2

1t
_ _ ^* V_ _ Jfc _ _ -------------------------------- 7
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ ¿
*
_
_ _ A _ _
_
V«
_
glM— _ _
g*g

8 .5

8 .4

8 .5

8 .2

8 .2

8 .0

8 .5

8 .4

7 .8

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1-8 0

2 -8 0

3 -6 0

4 -8 0

5 .8

6 .1

7 .4

7 .6

8 .8

1 1.0

1 2.5

11.6

2 -8 1

1 -8 1

IN IT IA L

1^ .U
.
-------

1
—

6 .6

6 .6

4 -7 8

AV.

3 -6 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

Î. 3 6 3 . 3 P

QUARTER

P R E LIM IN A R Y

GROSS N A T I O N A L

2 -7 9

0 .1

P R OD U C T

IN

1972 D O L L A R S

-0 .9
1 ,i 4 8 6 «,6

- i t l ____ h i ____ i ± 5 _
1 .4

_ L t5 ____ ¿*8____ 0 .7

1 -8 0

1
1 i. 4 9 <S,. 4

____ 2_t5____ 1*5____ 1*2________

2 -8 0

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .5

-2 .3

-3 .7

-9 .0

3 -8 0

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .3

-1 .5

-2 .2

- 4 . 3 ____£*fi_

+ - 8Q

0 f3 ____________Q t*

-0 .5

- 0 *8

- 1 . 4 ____1*3_ _ JLr 5 _

1~81

1*3____ L l2____ ________U 1 ____ U 1 ____£L*2_

A jlÄ ____ 1 .2
1 .4

-i t *

1 .5
1 .7

l . Q ____ 1 .0

4 .5

0 .9 ____3*5____4*4___ 4* J_

J L t l____ 1*4____ 1*3____3*5____4*2____4*3

4 -e i

0 .9

0 .8

1 .0

0 .6

0 .6

0 .4

2 .1

1 -8 2

0 .4

0 .3

0 .4

-0 .0

-Q .l

-0 ,4

l.Q

2 -8 2

0*t

0*3

0 ,5

0 .1

0 .0

-0 .2

0 .3

0 .3

-0 .0

-0 .1

-0 ,3

3 -6 2

0 .3

0 .2
1 -6 3

0 .3

- O j t l ____ 0*_2___- 0 ^ 1 ___ - 0 . 2 ___—p , 4 „

-

0 .6

-2 .1 -

-0 * 3

-3 .7

l.Q

0*4

-1 .6

- 2 . 3 ___" 5 * 2 ___- 5 . 5

1 .0

1 .0

0 .5

-1 .1

-1 .5

-3 .2

-2 .3

0 .9

Q ,7

0 ,7

0 .3

-1 .1

-1 .4

-2 .6

-1 .9

-0 .0

Q t 5____ Q*5____ 0*1___ - 1 . 1

4 -7 8

0 - 3 ____ 0 ^ 4 ____ ÇU1____ 0 ^ 0 ___- 0 . 1 ____ 0 . 7

0 .7

0 ,4

-0 ,7

-0 .8

- 1 *2_ _ 1*3
_

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

1*1_ _ M
_

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

"4 * 9

1 .4 8 5 .8

- 1 . * ___- 2 *4 . ^ 1 * 7 ___- 0 , 5

- ° * 8--------- ± * 2 ____ O i l ____ O i l ____ Ô i 6 ____ L t 4 ____ 1 . 5
1 .2

1 .5 0 6 .9

2 ,0

-1 .6

-0 .9

1 > 4 8 5 *7

- 1 . 2 ___- 1 * 3
0 .1

0 .6

1 .4 9 0 .1

2 .6

1 .5 2 5 .1

1 ,3

0 ,4

0 .4

2 .1

2 . 4 ____ 1 *£ ____ 6*1____ 9 . 7..

___ 1 .1

1 .9

2 .0

1,9

1 .2

1 .2

0 .9

1 .8

3 .1

3 .5

4 .6

6 .7

8 .8

7 .9

1 -6 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -6 3

2 -6 3

IN IT IA L

- 0 . 0 ____ 0 . 8

0 .3

-1 .0

1«554*_4P

QUARTER

P R E LIM IN A R Y




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST.
OCTOBER 2 0 , 1983

12

LOUIS

GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
RATIO

SCALE

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980
SOURCE:

PERC ENTAG ES ARE
LATEST

ANNUAL

DATA P L O T T E D ,




RATIO

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

R A T E S OF

CHANGE FOR PERIODS

3RD Q U A R T E R P R E L I M I N A R Y

U.S.

1982
DEPARTMENT

1983
O F C OM ME R C E

INDICATED.

pREpARE£( By

13

1981

RE$ERyE

^

SCALE

op ^

^

GENERAL
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

RATIO

SCALE

1972-100

1972-100

19 7 5

1976

1977

•AS USED i n NATIOMAL

1978

1979

19 80

INCOME ACCOUNTS

1981

SOURCEt U . S .

1982

1983

DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE FOR PERIODS IND ICAT ED .
L A TES T DATA PLOTTED» 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

IM P L IC IT

P R IC E DEFLATOR

TfeRH|H A l _
QUARTER
* - 7 9 ___ 1 - 7 9 ___2- Î 2 ___ 3 - 1 2 ___à r l l ___ I r û f l ___2 =â û ___3 - S Q

1 -7 9

LOUIS

FOR GR OS S N A T I O N A L P R O O U C T

1 97 2 ¥

8.6

2 -7 ?

_____ 8 ^ 5

____ a_^t____ 1 a ì _
W 9 .
1 - 80

10Û

4 - Q Û___ L=fi1___ 2= £1___ 3=£J ___ _________Lrfi-2___ 2=A2___ 3e f l 2 ___4 - B 2 ___ 1-.B3___ ? - f l 3

1 4 S .U

7 .8

_ a . 2 _____f l . o

____ 8 . 4 ____ 8 é4 ____ 9 . 6

9

J L m ____ ________ 2*£ ____ 2 * 3 ___ 10*3___ 1 0 , 9
2
3 -9 0

8 ,9

1 -9 1

? >3____2_i±____2 x5 ____ 2*1___lû * 2 _ IQ*.*
_

_ 2 * 0 ____ 2 *2____ 2*8

2 *0 ____ 9 * 0

9 . 1 ____ 9 . 2

9 .5

10*2___1 Q .2

1 0 ,5

Ifl9 .a 3

9 . 5 ____ 2*1____ 2^ 2 ____ Q . 2

____2Lt5____ 9*1____ 2*2____9*5____2*1____2*2____2*3____8*6____1*6____9*4

.3 ^ 1 ,

_a* i

1 9 6 ,9 *
V .U

------7 tfc

. 7>T

__ 7 . T

-7 .1

1 -8 2

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QUARTER

P R E LIM IN A R Y




PR6PARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE

14

BANK OF ST. LOUIS

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N C UR RE N T D O L L A R S
______________COMPOUNDED AN N UA L R A T E S O f CHAN GE________________
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IN

1972 D O L L A R S
B IL L IO N S

TERM INAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L

OF

QUARTER
ANNUAL R A T E S

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1
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QUARTER

PR E LIM IN AR Y




PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS
OCTOBER 2 0 . 1983

15

CROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
___________ COMPOUNDED ANHUAI RATES OF CHANGE____________
B IL L IO N S
- T E fW IN A l
QUARTER

OF

A N N U AL R A T E S
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QUARTER

P R E LIM IN A R Y

GR OSS P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C

IN VES TM EN T

IN

1972 D O L L A R S
B I L L I O N S OF
____D O L L A R S ____
AN N UA L R A T E S

t e r m in a l

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QUARTER

PR ELIM IN AR Y




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE
OCTOBER 20. 1983

16

8ANK OF ST. LOUIS

_

GO VER NM ENT P U R C H A S E S OF GOOOS A NO S E R V I C E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
---------------------------------------- ¿ O H E Q U N D t C L A M t t U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE _____________________
B IL L IO N S

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QUARTER

P R E L IM IN A R Y

GOVE RN MEN T P U R C H A S E S OF GOOOS AND S E R V I C E S

IN

1972 D O L L A R S
B IL L IO N S

QUARTER

OF

ANNUAL R A T E S
4 -7 0

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1.6

1 .4

1.1

0 .7

0 .0

1 .0

2 .0

o .a

1 .4

1 .7

1 .8

1 ,7

1 .5

1 .1

0 .6

1 .6

2 .5

1 .9

3 .9

2 -Ö 3

3 -9

4 -8 1

1 -8 3

-2 .1

3 -0 1

4 -8 2

4 .5

2 -8 1

3 -8 2

-3 .8

4 -0 0

? —Ô?

4 .0

2 -8 0

1 -8 ?

3 .5

1 -8 0

4 -81

-1 .9

2 -7 9

3— ft 1

2 7 6 ,4
0 .6
? 7A - A
M l,?

?A A TA

-2 .1
?A«i - A

28*. 0
4 .0

? A Q -A

1 -8 2

1 .3

1 .5

1 .6

1 .5

1 .3

0 .9

0 .5

1 .3

1 .9

1 .3

2 .5

2 -8 2

0 .8

1 .0

1 .1

0 .9

0 .7

0 .3

-0 .2

0 .4

0 .8

0 .1

0 .6

-0 .5

-2 .6

-4 .9

3 -0 2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .7

1 .6

1 .4

1 .1

0 .8

1 .4

1 .9

1.5

2 .3

1 .9

1 .2

1 .9

9 .3

4 -0 2

1 .9

2 .2

2 .3

2 .1

2 .0

1.8

2 .4

3 .0

2 .8

3 .6

3 .5

4 .8

1 0.0

1 -0 3

1 .3

1 .5

1 .5

1 .4

1 .3

1 .0

0 .8

1 .2

1.6

1 .3

1 .8

1 .4

0 .9

1 .2

3 .3

0 .5

-A .fi

«0
1
<(
N

1 .1

1 .3

1 .4

1 .3

1 .1

0 .9

0 .6

1 .0

1 .3

1 .0

1 .4

1 .1

0 .6

0 .7

2 .2

-0 .0

-5 .0

-1 .1

3 -0 3

1.4

1 .5

1 .6

1 .5

1 .4

1 .2

1 .0

1 .4

1.7

1 .5

1 .9

A , 6

1 .3

1 .5

2 .9

1 .3

-1 .6

2 .2

4 -7 «

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

IN IT IA L
P-

-0 .3
28 5 . 8
? 9 ? -?
10.7

299 . 7

79? . 1

2 -8 3

QUARTER

PR ELIM IN AR Y




PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T.

17

LOUIS

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
______ COMPOUNDED AHüll AI RATES OF CHANGE_________
TERMINAL
QUARTER
-±*13— 1-7?— 2=12— 2=12— 4=22__ 1-flfl__ 2-flfl— 3-Qfl— 4-flQ__ l - a i

BILLIONS OF
-------- DfU. L A R S ____
2-a i

vai

4 -a i

i -8 2

? -ñ ?

i-fl?

4-a?

i- a *

? -a i

ANNUAL RATES

■ 1 - 72____ 12x1________
2 -7 ?

__10,8

? .3
_ ___

. 2 -7 2 ____ 1 1 .5

11 «2

1 3 .Q

_!=&£___ 11.7

11,6

12,3__ 12*0

Ì>874.3

_____________ ___________________ ____________________________________________________________ ___________________

13,2

1,771.7
.1 »7Btt.fi

JL = £ fi____ L 0 x4 ___10*1___10*2____ 2 x2 ____ ftx2 ____4*T_
■ A - e g ____ 1 0 , 8

10,6

1 0 , 8 ___ 10 * 3
9o

___U

- i - J l ___ 1114

11- t i __ 11*6__ L U I __ 11,6

11*1. 13.3

11,1

2-11___ 11,2

10.6__ 1Z*3__ L2-Q__ I U )

11,3__ 11*0__ 11*2

a^ a

13,6__ 13x1
9 .0 _
- 2 -, 0 9 2-U>

11,1

11.3__ 11, 1

11,2

-1=12___ 10.4

10,3

10,3

1Q.1___ 2*£__ LO.4___ 2*2___ 2*1___ a^J___ 3^3___ 3^5___ l^á_

9 .9

10,0

2-62

1 0 .1

10,1
9,7

9.6

10,6

9.2

12*0

11x7

9,8

9,4

11*1_ I Q , 5
_

?,i?n.n

-1=31___ 11.2

8.6

7,7

11,3

7.4___ 4^3

-3-,7

9 .4
4 -8 2

9 .6

9 .5

9 .5

9 .2

9 .1

8 .7

9 ,2

8 ,7

8 .1

7 ,4

7 ,1

5 .2

5 .1

6 .3

6 .5

6 .8

1 -8 3

9 .4

9 .2

9 .2

8 .9

8 .8

8 ,4

8 .8

8 .4

7 .7

7 .1

6 .8

5 .2

5 .1

6 .0

6 .0

6 .0

5 .1

2 -8 3

9 .3

9 .1

9 .1

8 .8

8 .8

8 .4

8 ,7

8 ,3

7 ,8

7 ,2

7 .0

5 .6

5 .6

6 .5

6 .6

6 .7

6 .7

8 .2

3 -6 3

9 .4

9 .2

9 .2

9 .0

8 .9

8 .6

8 .9

8 .6

8 .1

7 .6

7 .4

6 .2

6 .3

7 .2

7 .4

7 .8

8 .1

9 .6

1 0-9

4 -7 8

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -81

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

?y>??7..8
?,

,9

?,» V ì i , .0
?(

>5P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P-

P R E L IM IN A R Y

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______
BILLIONS OF
___DOLLARS___
ANNUAL RATES
4-.? 3__ 1=22__ 2=12__ 2=12__ *=72__ l=fiO__ 2=fi0__ 3=8Q__ *=8Q__ 1=81_ 2=fll_ 3=81__ á=ñl_ Lrfl2__ 2rfl2__ 3nñ2__ áurñ2__ lrfl3 __ 2.-B3
_
_
_

TERM IN AL,
quarter

1 -7 ,9

2 -72
2-7 2

4-72
1-8
Q
-2 = ft£ -

3-80

2.?

_

JLtA__0*2_
_2x0___ 1x2___ 2*2_

1 ,rn io ..A

_ L jl5____ 1*2____ l x l ____ 0*L_

1 r0?0,, \

_1*I___ 1*3___ 1*2___ 1*2_
J&*3____Q x J L

JML

0,9___ 0*3___ 0 .6

2 .3

_

:d*0__ -1 .6
-0 ,1

-1 .3

►
1 ,025 «a

-3 ,3

-0 .1

4 -e o

_L*2____ 1x0____ 1*2____ O xS____ 0*2____0 ,5

1-81

2.9

_ lx£ ___ 1*3___ 1x6___ 1*4___ 1 ,6 -

2-ai
.3=81
4-8 1

_= 2
1&
JL 2
-^
3-82

4-82

-3 .3 ____4*1_

1,Q4D.7

___ U 5 ___ 1*2___ 1*4___ 1*2___ 1*3___ 1*3___ 3*3___ 3,1__1*SL-2*2___ 2*2___ 2*4___ 2*3___ 2*2___ 2*2___ 4^4___ 4 ^ ___ 5.0___ 5^3___ 8.9_
1,9

_Lt2___ 2x0___ I t?

_L*3____ 1 ,4

2* 1
___ 2*1___ 2*4___ 3*3_

1 .5 ____ 1*4____ 1*3_

1 .4

_2*4____ 2x3_ _ 2 * 0 _

JL*3___ 1*3___ 1x6___ 1*4___ 1*6___ 1*3___ 2.4
1.4___ U 2 ___ 1x4___ 1x2___ 1x4___ 1.3

2.1

1 .5
4, v

i,r

*, v

1 .9

1 .9

2 .0

1 .9

2 ,1

2 ,0

2 ,6

4 -7 8

3 -8 3

1,6

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

JLx6___ 1x3___ 1x6___ 1*3____ 2 . 2
------4_*_I____4 t I__— fct J

2.0

-1*2___ lx6 _

_ U 3 ___ 1*4___ 1x3___ 1*4___ 1x3___ 1*4___ 2*1____ 2 . 0

---- _____

1 -8 3

2.3

2 .1

^3.4

1 , 2 __

-1 .0 __ -CL.

1 .3 -

1.4

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l.Q __ =0.8__ =£U6___ O.a

1 .9
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1.8

1 . 4 ____ L*3 ___- 0 . 1 ____ 0 . 2

1 .4

1 .9

1 . 6 ____ 1*3___ 0*4____ 0 . 7

1 .8

1 .7

-2.6_

Jl.U

__ £ x U _

1*0

2 .6

2 .5

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1 .5

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6 .7

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

1 -8 1

2 -8 1

3 -8 1

4 -8 1

1-8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

1 -8 3

2 -8 3

_ _

__ *.g-- __ U*_Q____

.

..J

_ 3 . 2 -----------------------_

t t u a J . 4 ------1 .1 0 0 .8 P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P - PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE

18

BANK OF S T. LOUIS

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES*
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
-IE-KHINAIL__________________________ ______ __________
QUARTER
1 -7 9
W S
2 -7 9
3 -7 9
4 -7 9
1 -fiO
_ A -7 ?

1 ?.*
1 3.2

5 .8

13.1

8 .2

10.7

8 .0

3 .2

3 .2

0 .6

7 -8 7

%— ft 7

4 -A 7

1

13.0

4 -7 9

1 -A 7

8 .4

. 3 -7 ?

4 -8 1

3 .3

2 -7 9

PfU I ARS
3 -8 1

2?#?

1 -7 9

B ILLIO N S OF
_______ IN IT IA L QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
2 -8 0
3 -8 0
4 -8 0
V - fll
2 -8 1

)4 0 t Q
1A1 t ?
1KA. r *
H r? , ^
-1 0 .4

1A 5 r n

1 -8 0

7 .1

3 .1

3 .1

1 .4

—4 - 0

2 .9

2 -6 0

-4 .1

-8 .7

-1 1 .0

-1 5 .3

-2 3 .0

—2 8 . 6

-5 0 .5

3 -8 0

-1 .0

-4 .7

-6 .0

-8 .7

-1 3 .4

-1 4 .4

-2 1 .9

4 -8 0

- I *0

-4 .2

-5 .2

-7 .4

-1 1 .0

-1 1 .1

-1 5 .3

1 0.7

-0 .5

)-ß \

0 .6

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-2 .8

-4 .3

-7 .0

-6 .3

-8 .4

1 2.4

7 .3

15-9

1

1 ^9-4
2 3.3
1 4 A -7

2 -8 1

-2 .8

-5 .6

-6 .5

-8 .2

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—0 . 6

-7 .5

-1 0 -7

-1 1 •2

3 -6 1

-1 .3

-3 .7

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-5 .7

-7 .9

-7 .5

-9 .1

2 -6

-2 -0

-7 .4

- i n .5

4 -8 1

-1 .7

-3 .9

-4 .6

-5 .8

-7 .7

-7 .3

-8 .7

1 .1

-2 .8

-3 .4

- 9 .1

1 -8 2

-7 .8

-1 0 .2

-1 1 .2

-1 2 .8

-1 5 .0

-1 5 .5

-1 7 .6

-1 1 .4

-1 6 -1

-1 8 -9

- 2 5 .8

2 -8 2

-6 .3

-8 .4

-9 .3

-1 0 .6

-1 2 .5

-1 2 .7

-1 4 .3

-8 .2

-1 2 .0

-1 3 .8

- 1 f t •ft - n .

1¿.A T A

16- 5
4- 5

141 - 7

- 6 .2

- 2 3 - 9 - 3 8 .5

- 5 9 . ,7

- ? 1 .ft - 1 1 . 4

1 17 ,0
1 6-9

1 17 -4

-6 .1

-8 .1

-8 .9

-1 0 .1

-1 1 .8

-1 1 .9

-1 3 .2

-7 .7

-1 0 .9

-1 2 .3

-1 6 .3

- 1 3 . 0 - 1 9 .1

- 2 3 . ,0

6 .5

-3 -0

—6 . 3

-8 .2

-8 .9

-.10.1

- 1 1 . 6_ - 1 1 . 7

-1 2 .9

-7 .9

-1 0 .8

-1 2 .0

- 1 5 . 4 - 1 2 . 5 - 1 7 .3

-1 9 . 9

0 .7

-6 .5

-9 .9

1 -8 3

-7 .0

-8 .8

-9 .5

-1 0 .6

-1 2 .1

-1 2 .2

-1 3 .3

-8 .8

-1 1 .5

-1 2 .7

-1 5 .7

- 1 3 . 2 - 1 7 .3 - 1 9 - 4

-4 .2

-1 0 -3

-1 3 -7

-1 7 -4

2 -8 3

-3 .4

1

-5 .4

-6 .2

-7 .4

-7 .2

-7 .9

-3 .0

-5 .1

-5 .5

- 7 .7

-4 . 2

- 6 , .6

—6 . 9

1 0-0

3 -7 8

4 -7 8

1 -7 9

2 -7 9

3 -7 9

4 -7 9

1 -8 0

2 -8 0

3 -8 0

4 -8 0

l - i 31

2 -8 1

3 -81

4 -8 1

1 -8 2

2 -8 2

3 -8 2

4 -8 2

0
*
■

3 -8 2
4 —82

1 1 6 -5
1 13 .5
1 0 8 -2

N .A .

3 -8 3

»

N A TIO N A L

IN CO M E B A S I S

1 -8 3

I N I T I A L QUARTER
_______________________

N .A . - NOT A V A IL A B L E
PR E P A R E D BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BA N K O F

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income
and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929^75: Statistical
Tables (Stock number OT3-010-001Ol-l, price $10.00). Estimatesfor
1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 Survey
of Current Business. Estimates for 1980-82 appear in the July 1983
Survey oT~Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear
in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These
publications are available from the SuperiTvfendent of Documents, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
For further information, write to the National Income and
Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

ST.

L O U IS

I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES*
MANUFACTURING

AND

TRADE

. 68

68

.64

64

.60

60

. 56

56

. 52

52

. 48

48

44

. 40

40

. 36

36
) .3732
1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

* RAT I OS BASED ON SE ASO N AL L Y ADJUSTED DATA.

1978

1979

SOURCE:

1980

1981

1982

1983

' J . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERI ODS OF B USI NESS R E C E S S I O N S .
LATEST

DAT A P L O T T E D :




AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

20

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102