Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1983
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
National Economic Trends Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 1983 In the third quarter of this year, measures of economic activity generally surpassed the previous peak levels attained in the third quarter of 1981. Preliminary estimates indicate that real GNP expanded at a 7.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, bringing it to a level almost 2 percent higher than at the cyclical peak two years earlier. The average growth rate of real GNP since the recession trough in the fourth quarter of last year has been 6.7 percent. The principal component leading the recovery of real GNP has been gross private domestic investment. Most of the rise in this component has been due to a reversal of the earlier inventory sell-off. Nonetheless, real fixed investment, which excludes inventory investment, rose at a 16.6 percent rate in the three quarters since the recession trough. While this growth was primarily associated with a surge in housing investment, the pace of plant and equipment investment also has been unusually strong for a recovery. Real nonresidential fixed investment rose at a 6.9 percent rate. Other components of GNP have been somewhat weaker during the three quarters of the recovery. Real personal consumption expenditures rose at a 5.4 percent rate while government expenditures declined at a 1.6 percent rate. Net exports declined from $23.0 billion to $8.7 billion (both in 1972 prices) during the three quarters since the recession trough. A modest rebound of exports of goods and services, up at a 3.3 percent rate, was more than offset by a surge in imports, up at a 21.2 percent rate. Employment also has recovered. In the third quarter of this year, civilian employment rose at a 6.8 percent rate, putting it 1.1 percent above its level in the third quarter of 1981. The labor force has grown 3.3 percent since the cycle peak, however, so that the unemployment rate in September, 9.3 percent of the civilian labor force, was well above the 7.2 percent reached at the previous cycle peak in July 1981. Price increases have continued to be moderate, although some measures have accelerated recently. The implicit price deflator for GNP rose at a 4.1 percent rate during the three quarters of the recovery. Consumer prices rose at a 5.4 percent rate during the six months ending in September, up sharply from a 0.5 percent rate of increase over the previous six months. Producer prices have accelerated somewhat less, rising at a 2.8 percent rate in the past six months, compared with a 0.1 percent rate in the preceding six months. —John A. Tatom Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of this Bank or the Federal Reserve System. T O T A L C I V I L I A N EM P LO YM E NT COMPOUNDED A N N U AL R A T E S O f CHANGE 1 n TH 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 3 —82 — 1*2 4 -8 2 -1 .3 -1 .4 5 -8 2 1 .2 2 .4 6 .3 <>-82 -0 .0 0 .3 1.2 -3 .7 7 -8 2 -0 .3 -0 .0 0 .4 -2 .4 -1 .1 8 -8 2 -0 .0 0 .2 0 .6 -1 .2 0 .0 1 .2 9 -8 2 -0 .3 -0 .1 0 .1 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .3 -1 .7 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 OF PE RSO NS rr\ 00 1 * <M «0 I 2 -8 2 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 . 99.597 9 9.484 9 9,994 99.681 9 9.588 99»683 9 9.543 10-82 -0 .8 -0 .7 -0 .6 -2 .0 -1 .5 -1 .6 -3 .0 -4 .3 11-82 -0 .7 -0 .7 —0 . 6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .4 -2 .2 -2 .4 -0 .5 12-82 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .8 -1 .8 -0 .5 1 -8 3 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .5 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 0 .1 2 -8 3 -0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 9? x U 6 9 ^ .t3 ft -0 .5 99.093 99±JJ33 99.06 3 3 -8 3 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .4 -1 .1 -0 .8 -0 .7 -1 .0 -0 .9 -0 .2 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 0 .5 4— 8 3 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .0 -0 .6 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .1 0 .6 0 .8 1 .1 1 .4 2 .4 4 .4 5 -8 3 -0 .1 -0 .0 0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .1 -0 .0 -0 .2 0 .0 0 .7 0 .9 1 .1 1 .4 2 .0 2 .8 U2 99.103 99,458 99.55 7 6 -8 3 0 .8 1 .0 1 .1 0 .7 l.l 1.3 1 .3 1 .7 2 .4 2 .9 3 .4 4. 1 5 .3 7 .0 8 .3 15.9 7 -8 3 1 .1 1 .3 1 .4 l.l 1 .5 1 .7 1 .8 2 .1 2 .8 3 .3 3 .8 4 .5 5 .5 6 .8 7 .6 1 0.9 _6*1 _ 8 -8 3 1 .2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .3 1 .6 1.8 1 .9 2 .2 2 .9 3 .3 3 .8 4 .3 5 .1 6 ,1 6 ,5 8 .3 4 *7 3 .3 9 -8 3 I .4 1 .6 1 .7 1 .5 1 .8 2 .0 2 .1 2 .4 3 .0 3 .4 3 .9 4 .3 5 .0 5 .8 6.1 7 .4 4 .7 4 .0 2 -8 2 3— 82 4 -8 2 5 -82 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1 -83 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 I n it ia l 1 00 i7 8 6 7-8 3 101.5 63 4 .6 101»945 8 -8 3 month P A Y R O L L EMP LOY ME NT COMPOUNDED A NN UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 3 -8 2 -2 .8 4 -8 2 -2 .6 -2 .4 5 -8 2 -1 .8 -1 .3 -0 .1 6 -8 2 -2 .1 -1 .9 -1 .6 -3 .2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 1 0-82 TH O U S A N D S OF PER S ON S HQNTH 11-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 0.024 9 0 .01 6 7 -8 2 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .7 -4 .3 8 -8 2 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .3 -3 .4 -2 .5 9 -8 2 -2 .2 -2 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 -2 .4 -1 .4 8 9.450 4 -0 .4 89x235 10-82 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .9 -2 .8 -2 .3 -2 .2 -3 .9 1 1-82 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .2 -2 .1 -3 .0 12-82 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 . 1 -2 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 -1 .6 1 -83 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .2 -0 .2 0 .7 3 .0 2 -8 3 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .2 0 .5 -1 .9 3 -8 3 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .4 -1 .1 -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .3 0 .1 0 .7 -0 .5 0 .9 4 -8 3 -1 ,3 -1 .1 -1 .0 -1 .1 -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .3 —0*3 0 .3 0 .8 1 .4 0 .9 2 .4 3 .8 5 -8 3 -0 .9 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .0 0 .2 0 .3 0 .9 1.4 2.1 1.8 3 ,1 4 .2 6 -8 3 -0 .5 —0 . 3 -0 .2 -0 .2 0 .1 0 .5 0 .8 0 .9 1 .5 2 .1 2 .7 2 .6 3 .8 4 .7 5.2 5 .8 7 -8 3 -0 .2 -0 .0 0 .1 0 .1 0 .4 0 .8 1 .1 1 .2 1 .8 2 .3 2 .9 2 .9 3 .8 4 .6 4 .9 5 .0 4 .2 8 -8 3 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .0 0 .3 0 .5 0 .6 1 .1 1 .4 1*8 1 .6 2 ,2 2 ,5 2 .2 1 .4 -0*7_ 9 -8 ? 0 .0 0 .2 0 .3 0 .4 0 .6 1 .0 1 .2 1 .4 1 .9 2 .3 2 .7 2 .7 3 .4 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 2 .8 2 .1 10.3 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 1 0-82 11-82 12-62 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 —83 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 8 8.93 8 -2 .0 IN IT IA L P- 8 8.665 8 8.886 88.745 8 8.81 4 8 9.09 0 4 ,6 89.421 89.84490.152 -5 .4 8 9.73 5P 90.468P MONTH PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS OCTOBER 7# 1983 2 . EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS 1975 OF RATIO P ER SONS 1976 SEASON ALLY 19 77 1978 M ILLIONS AD JU S TE D 197 9 1980 1981 1982 OF SCALE P ER SONS 1983 SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IND ICA TE D. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12. 0 . I l l . l 10. 1 0 .0 9. 9.C 8. 8. ( 6. 6 .C 5 . !).( t. A A 1975 1976 19 77 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE: U .S . 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. 3 LOUIS CONSUMER P R I C E 1NOEX FOR A L L URBAN CO NS U M ER S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S O f CHANGE TERM INAL MONTH IN IT IA L 2 -8 2 -0 .4 4 -9 2 1 .3 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 1 0-82 MONTH 11-82 _ 1 S ì l 7.»1C0 - 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -9 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -9 3 9-8 3 7 B 3 .3 ?8^ 0 3 .0 V* 1 CO N) 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 3 -8 2 5 .0 7 .9 13.0 6 -8 2 7 .2 9 .8 1 3.4 13.8 7 -8 2 7 .2 9 .2 11.3 10.5 7 .3 8 -8 2 6 .6 8 .1 9 .4 8 .2 5 .5 2 86 .9 2 90 .0 7 3 .8 2 92 .6 5 .8 6 .9 7 .7 6 .4 4. 1 2 .5 1 .2 5 .7 6 .6 7 .2 6. 1 4 .3 3 .3 3 .1 5 .0 11-82 5 .1 5 .8 6 .2 5 .1 3 .4 2 .5 2. 1 2 .5 0 .0 12-82 4 .2 4 .7 5 .0 3 .9 2 .3 1 .3 0 .7 0 .5 -l.i^ 1 -8 3 4 .0 4 .5 4 .6 3 .6 2 .3 1 .4 1 .0 0 .9 -0 .4 -0 .6 2 .1 2 -8 3 3 .5 3 .8 3 .9 2 .9 1 .7 0 .9 0 .4 0 .2 -0 .9 -1 .2 -0 .2 -2 .4 3.3 3 .6 3 .7 2*8 1 .7 1.0 0 .6 0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .5 0 .4 -0 .4 1 .6 4 -8 3 3 .6 3 .9 4 .0 3 .2 2 .2 1 .6 1 .4 1 .4 0 .8 1 .0 2 .1 2 .1 4 .4 7 .2 5 -8 3 3 .8 4 .1 4 .2 3 .5 2 .6 2 .1 2 .0 2. 1 1 .6 1.9 3 .0 3 .2 5 .1 6 .9 6 .7 6 -8 3 3 .7 4 .0 4 .1 3 .4 2 .6 2 .2 2 .0 2 .1 1 .7 2 . 0 ___2 . 9 ____ 3^_0 4 .5 5 .4 4 .6 2. 7 -8 3 3 .8 4 .0 4 .1 3 .5 2 .3 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 2 .1 2 .4 3 .2 3 .4 4 .6 5 .3 ^.7 3. 1 8 -8 3 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 3 .6 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .7 3 .4 3 .6 4 .7 5 .3 4 .9 4. 2 5,3.. 3 0U .0 9 -8 3 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 3 .8 3 .1 2 .8 2._8 2 .9 2 .7 3 .0 3 .7 3 .9 4 .8 5 .4 5 .0 4. 6 5 .5 âü^4 $ -8 2 ~ 6 - 8 2 ' ' 7 -6 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-8? 1 1-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 r• ! CD 9 -8 2 10-82 Z - S 2 '" 3 -" 0 '2 ♦D A T A B E G I N N I N G _4 —^ 1983 - INCORPORATES RENTAL EQ UIVALENC E 2 9 4 , 1__ -3 .2 I n it ia l MEASURE. 2V3t2_. U A l ÉL- 29<?,9 2 9 7 . i> _ 4 .9 5- e j TERMINAL MONTH ____________ 2 - 8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -9 2 6 -9 2 —O » 9 1 ,3 5 -8 2 -0 .6 0 ,7 0 ,0 6 -8 2 2,6 4 .6 6 ,2 OF ST. LO U IS 6 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 L 96 7 » MQHTH 11-B2 1 2 - 8 2 ___ l - f L 3 100- ^ r . 8 3 ___3r_83___+ - Û 3___ 5-153___6.-.A3___ Z=H3___8 - E 3 27 7^ 1 _5^7L 8 -8 2 5 .7 3 .3 4 ,4 5 .0 6 .3 3 ,4 4 ,4 4 ,9 5 ,9 3 ,9 4 ,8 5 ,3 6 .2 1 -8 3 3*0 2 .3 3 ,4 1 ,3 4 .2 3 .8 2 ,8 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 5 ,9 4 .2 5 .2 5 .6 1 .5 0 .7 0 .5 -0 .7 1 ,6 0 ,9 0 ,9 2 .1 2 .9 2,2 3 -8 3 U7 5 -8 3 1 ,5 2.1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .4 282, «5 3 ,5 3 .9 4 -8 3 R E S t HVfc tiANK 12.8 7 -8 2 2 -8 3 3-83 -3 .0 4 -8 2 1 1-82 7 -8 2 7^8 1P R I C E I N D E X * F I N I S H E D GOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE IN IT IA L 3 -8 2 _ £ 9£ ^ 2 m onth PR E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L OC TO B E R 2 5 , 1983 PRO DU C ER _ _ . £ 9 Ju 3 1 ,5 1 ,0 0 ,1 2 8 3 -^ Q,Q 3 ,8 -4 .5 -1 2 .2 -2 ,4 -5 ,3 -0 .7 -2 .6 2 ,1 283^8- _ 2 f i3 ^ Q _ -3 ^3 0 .9 0 .3 0 .1 -0 .6 -2 .1 -3 .5 1 ,1 0,6 0 ,5 -0 .1 -1 ,3 -2 ,2 0 .4 -Q .l 1 .5 3 .0 1 .0 0 .6 -0 .3 “ 1^0 ____ 1 , 4 1 .3 2 ,9 4 ,3 5 .6 -O ,V -0 ,7 1 .3 2 .5 3 ,3 3 .4 _£hJ2___ LtS ___ K 8 6 -6 3 -0 . _ 26 3 *0 .. “ I « J ____ O ^ Q ¿ 9 3 .7 7 -8 3 2 ,0 2 ,3 1 ,1 0 .7 8 -8 3 2 ,1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .7 2 .0 1 .7 1 ,4 1 .4 1.1 2*9 3 ,6 ___ 1*2___ ______ ±*2_ 9 -8 3 2 ,1 2 ,4 2 ,5 2 ,6 2 ,0 1 ,7 1 ,4 1 .4 1 .2 0 ,6 0 .2 1 .9 1 .9 2 .8 3 ,3 3 .4 2 .7 3 .4 2 .1 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 1,8 ♦ O A T A F OR FOU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D TO R E F L E C T LATE 1 .4 1*2 286^ I N I T I A L HONTH R E P O R T I N G __________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAWK OF ST. OCTOBER 14, 1983 4 LOUIS R A T IO PRICES SCALE R A T IO SCALE CONSUMER PR I CE INDEX BEGINNING JANUARY 1976 IS FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) . C PI-U DATA SEC INN INC 1083 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOfl PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt INDICATED. SEPTEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF 81. r a t io SCALE PRODUCER P R I C E S 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 PERC ENTAG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES Of CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S L A TEST R A T IO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA PLO T TED , SEPTEM BER SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 IN D IC A T E D . PR EPA RED 5 LOUIS BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF S 1 . L O U IS PRODUC ER P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER FOOD S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * _____________________ COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S J3F CHAWG0______________________________ _ 2 -8 2 - _____ I H I T I A L 3 - 8 2 ___ ftJ$ 2 ___ ? - S 2 ___6 - 9 2 ___ 1 - 5 2 ___ S - 8 2 ___9 - 8 2 10-82 iq a 7 H f f ii lr i- , .. 11-32 * in n 1 2 - 8 2 ___ 1 - 8 3 ___2 - 8 3 ___ 3 - Q 3___4 r £ 3 ___ 5 - a 3 ___f i r a 3___7 - f l 3 ___8 - 8 3 - 1.8 9 »2 2 1.4 5 —82 7 .2 12.0 3 .3 6 -8 2 6 .8 9 .8 4 .4 7 -8 2 1 .3 2 .1 -3 .6 -6 .9 -1 7 .9 8 -8 2 1 .2 1 .9 -2*5 -4 * 3 -9 .0 0 .9 9 -8 2 0 .3 0 .7 -3 .0 -4 .5 -7* 7 -2 ,1 -5 ,0 10-82 0 .2 0 .5 -2 .6 -3 .7 -5 .9 -1 ,5 -2 ,7 -0 .5 ?|S2.3 5 .6 2 59 .4 1 1-82 0 .2 0 .5 -2 .2 -3 .1 -4 .8 -1 .2 -1 ,8 -0 .2 0*0 12-82 0 .5 0 .7 -1 .6 -2 .3 -3 .5 -0 ,4 -0 .7 0 .8 1*4 2 .8 1 -83 0 .2 0 .4 -1 .7 -2 .3 -3 .4 -0 .7 -1 .0 0 .0 0*2 0 .2 2 58 .2 258 *3 -2 ,3 2 -8 3 1 .2 1 .5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 l. l 1 .2 2 .4 3 .2 4 .2 5 .0 1 2.8 3 -8 3 1 .3 1 .6 -0 .1 -0 .4 -1 .1 1 .3 1 .3 2*4 3*0 3 .8 4 ,1 7 *4 0 .8 0 .3 2 .6 2 .8 3*9 1 .8 2 .7 3 .1 3*7 3*8 5 .4 3 .1 3 .5 _ -5 .7 0 .8 1 .5 1*7 2 .0 1 .9 2 .7 0 .3 -0 ,3 -6 ,6 4 -8 3 2 .1 2 .4 1 .0 5 -8 3 1 .6 1 .8 0 .5 0 .2 -0 .2 1 .7 6 -8 3 1 .0 1 .2 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .9 0 .8 6 , 4 ____ 9 , 5 ___5 t 7 2 6 0 .9 7 , 8 ___ 1 3 . 6 7 -8 3 0 .5 0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .9 -1 .4 0 .2 0 .1 0 .6 0 .7 0 .8 0*5 1 ,0 -1 * ^ 8 -8 3 0 .7 0 .9 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .9 0 .5 0 .5 1 .0 1 .2 1 .3 1 .1 1 .6 -0 ,2 9 -8 3 1 .1 1 .3 0 .2 0 .0 -0 .3 1 ,1 1 .1 1 -6 _ 1 -8 _ 2*0 1*9 Z*A 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 1 2-82 1 -8 3 * O A T A F OR FOU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D TO R E F L E C T LATE . IN IT IA L REPORTING 2 6 2 .9 -7 ,5 __ 2 6 1 . 2 -7 ,1 259.6 -3 * 3 -1 .1 5 .2 2 60 .7 -Q »6 1 .9 6 .6 8 .1 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -6 3 -7 ,3 -0 ,6 -3*9 1*0 0 ,8 -1*6 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -6 3 5 -8 3 HONT H PR O O U C E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O O S , E X C L U D I N G ___________________________ C OMPOUND E D ANN U A L in it ia l 261*4 2*3 FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* month MONTH 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-62 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 - 8 3 ___6 - 6 3 ___7 - 8 3 ___6 - f l 3 —3 »4 6 -6 2 —3 »4 - 3 >4 —2 » 7 - 2 »3 -1 * 3 1 .5 3 »2 6 .6 . 5 #9 9 ,1 14 , 8 14,4 6 .1 8.6 12.1 10.6 9*7 8 .0 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 7 6 0 -1 15.1 4 .2 5 .6 5 .6 7 .2 5 .0 6 .1 7 .5 6*3 4*9 5 .9 7 .1 5 ,9 3 .1 3*8 7 .5 5 .1 2 .0 1 .9 1.8 2.2 7 -8 3 3 .2 2 .8 3 .2 2*9 3*3 2 .4 2 .8 3*2 2 -82 3-82 4 -6 2 2*4 8 -8 3 9 -6 3 7*7 9*5 6 . 5 ____ 6 , 8 ____ 4 , 2 «4 2 .2 1 ,1 0 .6 0 .8 -0 ,1 1*6____ 0 . 2 -0 ,6 -1* 1 " Z i Z ___- 4 , 4 J U ? ____9 -8 ____ P t ^ -Q t? - It l -1 ,8 1*6 2 .7 1 .8 2*9 2*7 1 *9 1*5 1*4 1*0 6 -6 2 7 -8 2 8 -82 9-6 2 10-62 3*6 1*1 -Q ,6 2 .6 ♦ O A T A FOR F OU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D 2 ,0 6 .1 -6 .0 3 *5 5-62 5 , 3 ____ 4 , 5 ____ 6 , Q -1*1 2 .7 2 .7 288 . 9 _ l i l ____ ________ & ±1____ 0*2 ___ - 1 . 1 3 .4 1 .5 6 -6 3 3 .7 4 .9 -4 .4 - 2 tl -1 5 .2 -6 , 5 289_*5 - 1. 2 - 7 , 2___ - 2 , 9 2 89 *2 -4 .5 > 6 , 4 ___- 3 , 3 ___- 4 , 3 ___ - 4 * 1 -4 tl - It l - I t l ____ 0*3__ - 1 . 0 -1 * 8 ____1*1____1 ,7 1*2 - 0 * 7 ___~ Q* A 2 8 8 ,4 3*8 8 .0 1 0 .5 - U p ____ 1*6____ 2*2 3*9 6*7 7 *3 4 .2 2 -0 ____Lt6___ K 5 ____LjJ____r fl»?_________ 2x5___ 2*6 4*0 6 .2 6*4 4 . 4 ___ 4 . 6 TO R E F L E C T 0*9 0*2 -0 * 2 1*8 2*3 3 *4 5*0 4*9 3*1 2 .5 Q .4 11-62 1 2 - 82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -6 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8-83 I N I T I A L MONTH L A T E R E P O R T I N G ________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS OCTOBER 14* 1983 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1967-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 SCALE 1967-100 1980 1981 1982 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS I HO I C A T E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED. SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED SY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST . LOUIS IN D U S T R IA L PR ODUCTION CONPOMNQEp A N N U A L R A T E S O F CHANGE JLR? INAL_____________________________________________________________ INI T I O HQNTH______ ________1 H ÛN TH 2 -6 2 3 -8 2 3 -6 2 4 -6 2 5 -6 2 6 -6 2 7 -6 2 6 -6 2 9 -6 2 10— 82 11-82 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 _____ ______________ _______ ____ ___________ 1967 » 100 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -6 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 -9 .6 1 4 1 .7 4 -8 2 — 10 *8 - 1 2 . 0 5 -6 2 -1 0 .0 -1 0 .1 -6 .2 6 -« 2 -6 .6 -8 .2 -6 .3 -4 .2 7 -8 2 -6 .7 -6 .0 -3 .9 -1 .7 0 .9 8 -8 2 -6 .2 -5 .5 -3 .8 -2 .3 -1 .3 -3 .4 9 -6 2 —6 . 6 -6 .1 -4 .9 -4 .0 -4 .0 -6 .3 -9 .1 10-82 -7 .5 -7 .1 -6 .3 -5 .9 -6 .3 -8 .6 -1 1 .1 -1 3 .1 11-82 -7 .4 -7 .1 -6 .4 -6 .1 * 6 .4 -6 .2 -9 .7 -1 0 .0 -6 .8 12-62 -6 .4 -6 .1 -5 .3 -4 .9 -5 .0 -6 .1 -6 .8 -6 .0 -2 .2 2 .7 1 -6 3 -4 .2 -3 .6 -2 .7 -1 .9 -1 .6 -2 .0 -1 .7 0 .2 5 .1 11.6 2 1.4 2 -8 3 -3 .4 -2 .8 -1 .6 -1 .1 -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .4 1 .4 5 .4 9 .8 13.6 3 -8 3 -1 .9 -1 .2 -0 .2 0 .7 1 .3 1 .3 2 .0 4 .0 7 .8 11.8 15.0 11*9 17.8 4 -8 3 -0 .2 0 .6 1 .7 2 .7 3 .4 3 .7 ^♦ 6 6 .7 1 0.4 1 4.3 17.3 1 6.0 2 1.2 2 4.7 1 3 9 .2 1 3 8 .7 1 3 8 .4 1 37 .3 L3 5 .7 1 3 4 .9 1 3 5 .2 1 3 7 .4 6 .3 1 38.1 1 40 .0 1 42 .6 5 -8 3 0 .8 1 .6 2 .8 3 .7 4 .5 4 .9 5 .8 7 .9 11.2 14.6 17.1 16.1 19.5 2 0.4 16.2 6 -8 3 1 .8 2 .6 3 .8 4 .8 5 .6 6 .0 7 .0 8 .9 1 2.1 15.1 1 7.3 16.4 19.1 1 9.6 17.1 7 -8 3 3 .3 4 .2 5 .3 6 .4 7 .2 7 .8 8 .9 10.8 1 3.9 1 6.8 18.9 18.5 21.2 2 2 .0 21.1 23.6 2 9.6 8 -8 3 3 .9 4 .8 5 .9 7 .0 7 .8 8 .4 9 .4 1 1.3 1 4.0 1 6.6 1 8.5 1 8.1 20.2 2 0.7 1 9.7 20.8 2 2 .3 15.4 9 -8 3 4 .7 5 .6 6 .7 7 .7 8 .6 9 .1 1 0.2 11.9 1 4.6 1 6 .9 1 8.6 1 8.3 2 0.1 20.5 1 9.7 20 . 6 2 1.5 1 7.6 19.8 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -6 2 8 -6 2 9 -8 2 10-82 1 1-82 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -83 IN IT IA L P- 1 4 4 .4 1 7 .9 146.4 1 4 9 .6 1 51 .4 P 1 5 3 . 7P HONT H P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE OCTOBER 14, 1983 7 BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLION S MO N T HL Y OF D O L L A R S I N CO ME TOTAL S AT AN N U A L RATIO RATES TRILLION S ADJ USTED seasonally 2.9 1 2.8 . 2.5 2.4 2.3 ■ ^ 2 .7 8 1 0 , 'I ~ A SCALE DOLLARS +* .fr 2.7 2.6 OF / + 5. 9 z / / 2.2 / 2. I ? .0 .9 ♦8 ■■■■ W J 7 Ÿ / .6 .5 ♦4 .3 .2 * $ M $ t t .0 1 975 19 76 < * «or«* - Ü ' (1 1 : ?\ * 1977 19 78 19 79 19 80 1981 SOURCE: U . S . 1982 1 * 1 I 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN DIC ATE D. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S ’ . LOU IS P E R S O N A L IN COME COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE t e r m in a l month IN IT IA L 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 i>-6 2 6— 02 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T ES MONTH 1 1-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -6 3 8 -8 3 7 .7 2 # 5 3 5 .8 ¿ .-8? L.. «; K L. 5 -8 2 6 .1 7 .9 9 .3 6 -8 ? «=;. » 5 .0 S .7 ?. i 7 -8 2 e; . 7 6 .5 A.A s. . ? 2 .5 4 9 .0 2 .5 6 8 .0 2 ,5 7 2 .5 A A 2 »5 8 9 .8 8 -8 2 4 .5 4 .9 4 .5 2 .9 3 .4 -1 .4 9 -8 ? A .6 L. . Q L. A *.q 3 .9 1*8 5 .1 1 0-8? ? *. *;^ u ^7 4 .4 7 .4 9 .8 11-82 5.5 5 .8 5 .7 5 .1 5 .7 5 .1 7 .4 8 .5 7 .2 1 2 —8? 5 .5 -8 S .7 s .? 5 .7 5 .2 6 .9 7 .5 6 .4 5 .6 1 -8 3 5 .3 S. A S. c >. f 5 .^ 4 .9 6 .2 6 .5 5 .4 4 .5 2 * 5 8 6 .7 2 .5 9 7 .4 2 .6 1 7 ,8 2 .6 3 3 .1 2 * 6 4 5 .0 3 .5 2 *6 52 .6 2 -8 ? 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4 .3 4 .6 «.1 5 .0 5 .0 3 .8 2 .7 1 .3 -0 .9 3 -8 3 5 .1 5 .3 S .? 4 . fi 5 .1 4 .7 5 .6 5 .7 4 .9 4 .3 3 .9 4 .0 9 .2 4 -3 3 5 .4 5 .6 5 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .1 6 .0 6 .1 5 .5 5.2 5 .1 5 .6 9 .0 8 .8 2 *6 50 .5 2 .6 7 0 .1 2 .6 8 9 .0 5 -8 3 5*9 6 .2 6 .2 5 .9 6 .2 6 .0 6 .9 7 .1 6 .7 6 .7 6 .9 7 .7 10.8 11.6 1 4 .4 6 -8 3 5 .9 6 .2 6 .1 5 .9 6 .2 6 .0 6 .8 7 .0 6 .6 6 .6 6 .7 7 .4 9 .6 9 .7 10.1 6 .0 7 -8 3 6 .0 6. ? 6 .2 6 .0 6 .3 6 .1 6 .8 7 .0 6 .7 6 .6 6 .7 7 .3 9 .0 8 .9 9 .0 6 .4 6 .7 8 -8 3 5 .9 6 .0 6 .0 5 .8 6 .1 5 .9 6 .5 6 .7 6 .4 6 .3 6 .3 6 .8 8 .1 7 .9 7 .6 5 .5 5 .2 3 .7 9 -8 3 6 .2 6 .3 6 .3 6 .2 6*4 6 .3 6 .9 7 .1 6 .8 6 .8 6 .9 7 .3 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 7 .0 7 .3 7 .6 11.6 4 -* 2 •>-*2 6 —>52 7 -8 7 9 -8 2 9— 8 Z 10-82 n -82 12-82 1 -8 3 2-Ô 3 3 -8 3 4 -S T 5— 8 3 6 -8 3 ? -d 3 8 -8 3 2=B7" 2 .7 1 9 .3 2 *7 32 .6 2 *7 47 .4 2 .7 5 5 .7 2 »7 8 1 .0 P INITIAL HCWTH TR5PARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T , LOUIS OCTOBER 19* 1983 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLION S 1 97 5 OF RATIO DOLLARS 197 6 SEASONALLY 1977 19 7 8 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE: U .S . 1982 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IND IC A TE D. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. AUGUST, SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. R E T A IL SALES C OH PO UN OE D A N N U A L R A T E S ____ TERM INAL MONTH 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 ____ 5 -8 2 _______ 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 IN IT IA L 9 -8 2 10— 82 11-82 LOU IS OP C HA N GE MONTH________________________________________________________________________ M I L L I O N S OF W I L a AS 2 -8 3 3 -6 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -6 3 8 -8 3 1 2-82 1 -8 3 3 -8 2 —4 *6 4 -6 2 2 .9 1 1.0 87,701 5 -8 2 1 3.2 2 3.3 3 6.9 6 -6 2 1 .9 4 .2 0 .9 -2 5 .6 7 -8 2 3 .9 6 .2 4 .6 -8 .6 1 2.4 8 -6 2 2 .3 3 .8 2 .1 -7 .5 3 .2 -5 .2 9 -6 2 3 .6 5 .1 3 .9 -3 .0 6 .0 2 .9 1 0-82 4 .9 6 .3 5 .6 0 .2 8 .0 6 .6 1 3.0 1 4.3 1 1-62 6 .8 8 .3 7 .9 3 .7 10.9 10.5 1 6.3 18.6 23.1 12-62 6 .0 7 .3 6 .8 3 .1 8 .9 8 .2 11.9 1 1.9 1 0.7 -0 .4 1 -6 3 5 .3 6 .3 5 .8 2 .5 7 .2 6 .4 8 .9 8 .2 6 .3 -1 .3 -2 .1 88,468 90,813 86,603 8 9,469 89,06 9 89,697 1 1.7 90,905 92,492 9 2,459 92,295 4 .3 3 .7 0 .5 4 .4 3 .3 4 .8 3 .4 0 .9 —5 . 6 -8 .1 -1 3 .8 6 .3 5 .9 3 .2 7 .1 6 .4 8 .2 7 .6 6 .3 2 .5 3 .5 6 .5 3 1.4 7 .2 8 .1 7 .9 5 .6 9 .3 9 .0 10.9 1 0.8 1 0.2 7 .8 1 0.0 1 4.4 3 1 .7 3 2.1 5 -6 3 9 .3 1 0.4 1 0.4 8 .4 12.2 1 2.1 1 4.3 1 4.6 1 4.6 13.3 16.2 2 1 .3 3 5.9 3 8 .2 4 4.7 6 -6 3 9 .3 1 0.3 1 0.3 8 .5 1 1.9 1 1.9 13.8 1 4.0 1 3 .9 1 2.7 1 5.1 1 8.8 2 8 .7 2 7 .9 2 5.8 9 .4 7 -6 3 9 .0 9 .9 9 .9 8 .2 1 1.3 11.2 12.9 13.0 1 2.8 11.6 1 3.4 16.3 23.4 2 1 .5 18.2 6 .8 8 -6 3 7 .4 8 .1 7 .9 6 .2 9 .0 8 .7 1 0.0 9 .8 9 .4 6 .0 9 .0 10.7 1 5 .5 1 2.5 8 .1 -1 .9 -7 .1 -1 7 .3 9 -6 3 8 .0 8 .8 8 .6 7 .1 9 .7 9 .5 10.7 10.7 1 0.3 9 .1 10.3 1 1.9 1 6.1 1 3.8 10.4 3 .2 1 .2 -0 .2 20.4 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -6 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -6 2 «-8 2 5- ¥ 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -fy 7 -6 3 8 -5 3 ~ w 3 .5 5 .5 ♦ 91,16 4 2 -6 3 3 -6 3 u * * r re -e IN IT IA L 1 -8 5 “ 93,263 9 5,449 98,43 1 MONTH E - ES TIH ATEO OCTOBER 9 13, 19 83 99,173 99,521 4 .3 9 7,955P 99,4806 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N « B U S I N E S S S E C TO R COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CH AN GE TERMINAL_________________________________________________________IN IT IA L QUARTER________________________________________________________ 197 7 » 'QU A RT Ef t 3 -7 8 " ' 4 -7 8 " 1 -7 9 4 -7 8 9 .8 1 -7 9 10.5 11.1 2 -7 9 9 .8 9 .9 8 .6 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 1 -8 3 1 1 5 .2 1 1 7 .6 3 -7 9 9 .9 1 0.0 9 .4 10*2 9 .7 9 .6 9 .1 9 .4 8 .6 1 -8 0 9 .9 9 .9 9 .6 1 0.0 9 .9 120* 5 12 3 * 0 1 2 6 .3 10.2 1 0.3 10.1 10.5 10.5 1 1.5 1 1 .9 Ui 1 CO O 1 1.2 2 -8 0 10*1 10.2 10.0 10.3 1 0.3 10.9 10.7 4 -8 0 1 0. 1 10.1 9 .9 1 0.2 1 0.2 1 0.6 10.4 9 .6 9 .7 1 -8 1 10.2 10.2 10.1 1 0.3 1 0.4 1 0.7 1 0.6 10.2 10.5 11.3 2 -8 1 9 .9 9 .9 9 .8 10.0 9 .9 10.2 1 0.0 9 .5 9 .4 9 .3 3 -8 1 9 .9 9 .9 9 .8 9 .9 9 .9 10.1 9 .9 9 .5 9 .5 9 .4 8 .5 9 .6 4 -8 1 9 .7 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .8 9 .6 9 .2 9 .1 9 .0 8 .2 8 .6 7 .6 1 -8 2 9 .7 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .2 9 .1 8 .5 8 .9 8 .6 2 -8 2 <>.5 9 .4 9 .3 9 .4 9 .3 9 .4 9 .2 8 .8 8 .7 8 .6 8 .1 8 .2 7 .8 7 .8 6 .2 3 -8 2 9 .3 9 .3 9 .1 9 .2 9 .1 9 .2 9 .0 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 7 .9 8 .0 7 .6 7 .5 6 .6 6 .9 9 .1 8 .9 8 .9 8 .8 8 .9 8 .7 8 .3 8 .2 8 .0 7 .6 7 .6 7 .2 7 .1 6 .3 6 .3 5 .7 1 4 -8 2 1 1 2 .2 4 -7 9 4 -8 2 1 29 .9 9 .6 1 32 .9 1 3 6 .0 1 3 9 .7 7 .4 142 *2 1 4 5 .5 1 4 4 .2 9 .5 1 51 .6 1 5 3 .9 156*5 1 5 8 ,7 0 .8 8 .7 8 .7 8 .6 8 .6 8 .4 8 .0 7 .9 7 .7 7 .3 7 .2 6 .8 6 .7 6 .0 5 .9 5 .4 5 .1 2 -8 3 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 8 .4 9 .2 8 .2 8 .0 7 .7 7 .5 7 .3 6 .8 6 .8 6 .4 6 .2 5 .5 5 .3 4 .8 4 .3 3 .5 3— 70 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 Ö ¿ -é ó k> 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 ' OUTPUT ' 8 .9 p 1 -8 3 I nIT ìa l 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 8 0 .8 1 -7 9 -0 .4 -1 .6 2 -7 9 -1 .1 -2 .0 -2 .4 3 -7 9 -1 .3 -2 .0 -2 .2 -2 .0 4 -7 9 -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .4 -0 .8 1 -8 0 -0 .9 -1 .2 - l . l -0 .7 0 .0 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 o 1 -7 9 I CO IN IT IA L 4 -7 8 16Q *7 q u a r T èr 3 -8 0 QUARTER 4 -8 0 1-81 191 7 * 100 . 2 -9 i 3 -6 1 4 -8 1 100 .8 1ÜQ .4 9 9.8 9 9.3 9 9.1 0 .8 9 9 .3 2 -8 0 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .1 -1 .2 -3 .2 3 -8 0 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .8 1 .6 4 -8 0 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .7 -0 .5 -0 .2 0 .0 -0 .3 1 .2 98.5 96*9. 0 .8 9 9.1 1 -8 1 -0 .0 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .4 0 .8 1 .1 1 .2 2 .7 3 .3 5 .8 2 -8 1 0 .2 0 .1 0 .3 0 .6 1 .0 1 .3 1 .4 2 .6 3 .0 4 .1 3 -8 1 0 .6 0 .5 0 .8 1 .1 1 .5 1 .8 2 . 0 3 .1 3 .4 4 .3 3 .6 4 .8 4 -8 1 0 .2 0 .1 0 .3 0 .6 0 .8 1 .1 l.l 1 .8 1 .9 2 .1 0 .9 0 .2 -4 .2 1.5 1 .6 0 .6 0 .0 -2 .3 -0 .4 1 00 .5 2 .4 1 0 2 .3 0 .9 0 .9 1 .5 0 .5 0 .6 0 .6 1 .1 1 .0 l.l 0 .2 -0 .4 -2 ,1 -1 .0 -1 .6 3 -8 2 0 .1 0 . 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .7 0 .7 1 .2 1 .1 1 .1 0 .4 0 .0 -1 .2 -0 .1 0 .0 1 .6 4 -8 2 0 .3 0 .3 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 0 .9 0 .9 1 .4 1 .3 1 .4 0 .8 0 .5 -0 .3 0 .7 l. l 2 .4 1 -8 3 0.4 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 1 .0 l. l 1 .5 1 .4 1.5 1 .0 1 .4 2 ,4 2 ,8 2 .4 2 -8 3 0 .7 0 .7 0 .8 1 .0 1 .2 1 .4 1 .4 1 .8 1 .8 1 .9 1 .5 1 .4 0 .9 1 .8 2 ,2 3 .2 3 .7 4 .0 5 .6 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -6 2 1 -8 3 CD O »— CD 1 IN IT IA L o 0 .7 0 .3 o 0 .5 0 .1 00 0 .2 -0 .0 1 0 .1 0 .0 1 0 .1 o 1Q1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -7 3 1 62 .1 PER HOUR OF A L L P E R S O N S , B U S I N E S S S E C T O R COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHA NG E TERM INAL OUÀftTÈft 3 -7 8 1QO ” 2 -7 9 1 00 .7 1 01 .9 3 .2 1 0 2 .5 QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 26* 1983 10 t _ PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATION, AND L A B O R C O S T S SCALE RATIO 1 9 7 7 -1 0 0 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1975 1976 1977 1978 1 97 9 1980 1981 SO U R C Ei P E R C E N T A itS A ftE A M K U A L H A T E S LA T tS T P L O T T tO , DATA OF CH AM CC F O R P E R IO O S SCALE 1 9 7 7 -1 0 0 0 .3 . 1982 1983 *E P A R T y tM T Of LA B O R ST. LO U IS IN D IC A T E D . 2 MO O U A R T E R PR EP AR ED IT FED ER AL RES ERVE BANK Of U N I T L A B O R C O S T S , B U S I N E S S S E C TO R COMPOUNDED AN N UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE 4 -7 8 9 .5 1 1 _____ ________ _____ k T E R M I N A L _____________________________________ ____ OU A f t Te * 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-7 8 4 -7 8 3 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 _ IN IT IA L 3 -8 0 QUARTER 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 10 7 7 « 2 -91 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 3 -8 2 1 -8 2 4 -8 ? 114 1 -7 9 11 .1 12.8 2 -7 9 11.0 11 . 8 1 0.9 3 -7 9 11.4 1 2.0 11.6 11 7 -fl 11 . 4 1 0.9 1 1 .0 9 .6 1 1 .0 11.3 1 0.9 10.9 10.1 1 0.7 (SI 12A 1 1 .0 1 -8 0 1 1.9 11.7 12.0 11.8 1 3.0 1 5.3 t 1 2 7 .3 3 -8 0 11.1 1 1.3 1 1.1 1 1 .1 10.8 1 1.2 1 1.5 7 .0 4 -8 0 10.8 1 1 .0 1 0.7 1 0 .7 10.4 1 0.6 1 0.5 8 .2 1 -8 1 10.3 10.3 1 0.0 9 .9 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 7 .2 7 .0 5 .4 2 -8 1 9 .8 9 .8 9 .5 9 .3 8 .8 8 .7 8 .3 6 .7 6 .3 5 .2 5 .0 3 -8 1 9 .3 9 .3 9 .0 8 .8 8 .3 8.1 7 .7 6 .3 5 .9 5 .0 4 .8 4 .6 4 -8 1 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 9. 1 8 .7 8 .6 8 .3 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 7 .2 8 .3 1 2.0 1 -8 2 9 .6 9 .6 9 .3 9 .2 8 .8 8 .8 8 .5 7 .6 7 .5 7 .3 7 .8 8 .8 1 1 .0 9 .9 9 .5 9 .2 9. 1 8 .8 8 .7 8 .5 7 .7 7 .6 7 .5 7 .9 8 .7 1 0. 1 9 .1 8 .2 3 -8 2 9 .2 9 .2 8 .9 8 .7 8 .4 8 .3 8 .1 7 .3 7 .3 7 .1 7 .4 7 .9 8 .7 7 .6 6 .5 4. 8 4 -8 2 8 .8 8 .7 8 .4 8 .3 8 .0 7 .8 7 .6 6 .8 6 .7 6 .5 6 .7 6 .9 7 .4 6 .3 5 .1 3 .6 2 .3 1 -8 3 8 .5 8 .4 8 .1 7 .9 7 .6 7 .5 7 .2 6 .5 6 .4 6 .1 6 .2 6 .4 6 .7 5 .7 4 .7 3 .5 2 .9 3.4 2 -8 3 7 .9 7 .8 7 .5 7 .3 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 5 .8 5 .6 5 .3 5 .3 5 .3 5 .4 4 .4 3 .3 2 .1 U 2 0 ,6 3 -7 Ô 4 -7 0 1 -7 $ 2 -7 6 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 0 CD 11.6 fl 1 2.4 4 -7 9 2 -8 2 in n 1- f t l 1 3 4 .4 8 .6 1 37 .2 139 .0 1 4 0 .7 142 .3 1 46 .4 1 4 9 .9 1 5 2 .9 154*7 1 5 6 .9 -2 .0 . 1 -8 3 I N I T I A L QUARTER 11 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA»*. OF S T . AUGUST 2 6 , 1983 LOUIS CROSS n a t i o n a l p r o o u c t i n c u r r e n t d o l l a r s COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______ IN IT IA L B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S QUARTER QUARTER - f c» 7 g ___ 1 - 7 9 2— 79 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -6 0 2 -8 0 3 rfiQ 4 - 8 0 ------ l ^ f i ] -------2=Ä1------- 3 - f l l 4 - f l l -------1 - 6 ? ? -* ? 1 -6 ? 4 -8 2 1 -6 3 2 ,3 3 5 .5 W 3 ______i ± 0 _ 2 -7 9 _ _JS*6____Z*5_ ? (f V 7 7 . 3 -7 9 ____ l p t 2 1 0 t? 13 ,6 9 ,7 9 .7 1 0 .8 4 -T 9_ r 4 .*4 ... A 8. 1 - ?<*5 0 ? , . 9 1 -8 0 1 0 .1 10 «2___LL*1____ 9*2___11 *J________ 2 -8 0 8 .5 8 .3 ____ t* 4 ____ fiLjufi____6*2____Q*2_ - 3 - 8A , 0 .7 8 .5 ____ g . 7 7 .5 2 .5 7 6 .4 7 .3 4 -6 0 9 .5 1 -8 1 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 ___L I ± i ___Iff t ? 11*3 2 -8 1 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 10*7 1 0 .6 3 -8 1 1 0 .5 1 0 .» 1 1 .0 ___1 0 .6 1 1 .0 ___lû * 2 ___1 3 ^ __ 13^2__ L3*3____9*9___13*3________ * -* 1 9 .9 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 1 0 .1 9 .0 9 .0 9 .1 2 - g ?. 9 .5 ____ 2*S____ 2*1____ 2*3____9 .5 1 Q .3 9 .8 1 2 .9 9 .8 1 1 .4 8 .4 9 .5 ? .6 A A .& 2 0 .5 1 4 .0 ___13.3 6*6 . . 1 1 .7 ___]SUâ ____ Z*Ä____ft*4____3L-JZ_ 9 .4 8 .3 ____5*4____5*5____ 1*1___- 1 . 4 g*5_ _1*2____5*1____2*Û____8*0____ 5*6____M 7 .9 8 .Q 7 ,9 8 , Q ____ 1N 6 ____ 1 *6 ____ L t 2____ L l 5 _ _ _ _ _ _—■ * —_ _ _ _ _ _^ Tt* 3 -6 3 1 0 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .1 V. V V. V r. » 7 .8 7 .6 ____2*2_ -2*7 3 .Ù 9 Û .7 6 .6 ____4*0____4*5____ 2*^____2L*6____3*5____2*6____ 1*5_______ _5*2____ 5*û____3* Z_ -------xJLk------------VIA 3 ,0 2 1 .4 ■2 .5 . 4 .9 ____ 1*2____2*6____4 .6 _ t* Q ____Z*£____ft*à____ft*2____1*2_ - i ± 2 ______i d t ____ 1 x 2 ____ 5 ^ _ 8 .0 1 5 .5 lf l.O 8 .7 ____ ft*3_ _1* 2 ____ 5j l 9____ S*2 ____ 8 * i _ 1 2 .6 t tT 3 .7 5 .Q ____4*4____ 5jl 3____8 .2 ___^*V_ _ _ _ _ _¿*Jfc_ __ _ _ _V« A _ _ _glM—_ _ _ _-----------------------g*g 8 .5 8 .4 8 .5 8 .2 8 .2 8 .0 8 .5 8 .4 7 .8 6 .6 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3 -6 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 IN IT IA L ---------1 t 7 1^. .U------- AV. 1— 6 .6 5 .8 6 .1 7 .4 7 .6 8 .8 1 1.0 1 2.5 11.6 2 -8 1 3 -6 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 Î . 3 6 3 . 3 P QUARTER P R E LIM IN A R Y GROSS N A T I O N A L 2 -7 9 0 .1 P R OD U C T IN 1972 D O L L A R S -0 .9 1 ,i 4 8 6 «,6 - i t l ____ h i ____ i ± 5 _ 1 .4 _ L t5 ____ ¿*8____ 0 .7 1 -8 0 1 1 i. 4 9 <S,. 4 ____ 2_t5____ 1*5____ 1*2________ 2 -8 0 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .5 -2 .3 -3 .7 -9 .0 3 -8 0 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .3 -1 .5 -2 .2 - 4 . 3 ____£*fi_ + - 8Q 0 f3 ____________Q t* -0 .5 - 0 *8 - 1 . 4 ____1*3_ _ JLr 5 _ 1~81 1*3____ L l2____ ________U 1 ____ U 1 ____£L*2_ A jlÄ ____ 1 .2 1 .4 -i t * 1 .5 1 .7 l . Q ____ 1 .0 4 .5 0 .9 ____3*5____4*4___ 4* J_ J L t l____ 1*4____ 1*3____3*5____4*2____4*3 4 -e i 0 .9 0 .8 1 .0 0 .6 0 .6 0 .4 2 .1 1 -8 2 0 .4 0 .3 0 .4 -0 .0 -Q .l -0 ,4 l.Q 2 -8 2 0*t 0*3 0 ,5 0 .1 0 .0 -0 .2 0 .3 0 .3 -0 .0 -0 .1 -0 ,3 3 -6 2 0 .3 0 .2 1 -6 3 0 .3 1 .2 4 -7 8 - O j t l ____ 0*_2___- 0 ^ 1 ___ - 0 . 2 ___—p , 4 „ - 0 .6 -2 .1 - -0 * 3 -3 .7 l.Q 0*4 -1 .6 - 2 . 3 ___" 5 * 2 ___- 5 . 5 1 .0 1 .0 0 .5 -1 .1 -1 .5 -3 .2 -2 .3 0 .9 Q ,7 0 ,7 0 .3 -1 .1 -1 .4 -2 .6 -1 .9 -0 .0 Q t 5____ Q*5____ 0*1___ - 1 . 1 0 - 3 ____ 0 ^ 4 ____ ÇU1____ 0 ^ 0 ___- 0 . 1 ____ 0 . 7 0 ,4 -0 ,7 -0 .8 - ° * 8--------- ± * 2 ____ O i l ____ O i l ____ Ô i 6 ____ L t 4 ____ 1 . 5 - 1 *2___ 1*3 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 "4 * 9 1 .4 8 5 .8 - 1 . * ___- 2 *4 . ^ 1 * 7 ___- 0 , 5 0 .7 1*1___ M 1 .5 0 6 .9 2 ,0 -1 .6 -0 .9 1 > 4 8 5 *7 - 1 . 2 ___- 1 * 3 0 .1 0 .6 1 .4 9 0 .1 2 .6 1 .5 2 5 .1 1 ,3 0 ,4 0 .4 2 .1 2 . 4 ____ 1 *£ ____ 6*1____ 9 . 7.. ___ 1 .1 1 .9 2 .0 1,9 1 .2 1 .2 0 .9 1 .8 3 .1 3 .5 4 .6 6 .7 8 .8 7 .9 1 -6 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -6 3 2 -6 3 IN IT IA L - 0 . 0 ____ 0 . 8 0 .3 -1 .0 1«554*_4P QUARTER P R E LIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. OCTOBER 2 0 , 1983 12 LOUIS GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATIO SCALE 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: PERC ENTAG ES ARE LATEST ANNUAL DATA P L O T T E D , RATIO QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS 3RD Q U A R T E R P R E L I M I N A R Y U.S. 1982 DEPARTMENT 1983 O F C OM ME R C E INDICATED. pREpARE£( By 13 1981 RE$ERyE ^ SCALE op ^ ^ GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO SCALE 1972-100 1972-100 19 7 5 1976 1977 •AS USED i n NATIOMAL 1978 1979 19 80 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1981 SOURCEt U . S . 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE FOR PERIODS IND ICAT ED . L A TES T DATA PLOTTED» 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. IM P L IC IT P R IC E DEFLATOR TfeRH|H A l _ QUARTER * - 7 9 ___ 1 - 7 9 ___2- Î 2 ___ 3 - 1 2 ___à r l l ___ I r û f l ___2 =â û ___3 - S Q 1 -7 9 LOUIS FOR GR OS S N A T I O N A L P R O O U C T 1 97 2 ¥ 8.6 2 -7 ? _____ 8 ^ 5 ____ a_^t____ 1 a ì _ W 9 . 1 - 80 10Û 4 - Q Û___ L=fi1___ 2= £1___ 3=£J ___ _________Lrfi-2___ 2=A2___ 3e f l 2 ___4 - B 2 ___ 1-.B3___ ? - f l 3 1 4 S .U 7 .8 _ a . 2 _____f l . o ____ 8 . 4 ____ 8 é4 ____ 9 . 6 9 J L m2 ____ ________ 2*£ ____ 2 * 3 ___ 10*3___ 1 0 , 9 3 -9 0 8 ,9 1 -9 1 ? >3____2_i±____2 x5 ____ 2*1___lû * 2 __ IQ*.* _ 2 * 0 ____ 2 *2____ 2*8 2 *0 ____ 9 * 0 9 . 1 ____ 9 . 2 9 .5 10*2___1 Q .2 1 0 ,5 Ifl9 .a 3 9 . 5 ____ 2*1____ 2^ 2 ____ Q . 2 ____2Lt5____ 9*1____ 2*2____9*5____2*1____2*2____2*3____8*6____1*6____9*4 .3 ^ 1 , _a* i 1 9 6 ,9 * V .U ------7 tfc . 7>T __ 7 . T -7 .1 1 -8 2 8 .6 8 .» 8 .7 9 .7 8 .8 8 .8 8 .4 8 .4 7 .8 7 .1 7 .5 6 .6 4 .3 2 -8 2 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .5 8 .4 8 .1 8 .0 7 .4 6 .8 7 .1 6 .3 5 .Û 5 .6 3 -8 2 8 .1 8 .1 8 .0 8 .0 8 .1 7 .9 7 .6 7 .4 6 .9 6 .3 6 .4 5 .6 4 -5 4 -6 3 .7 4 -8 2 7 .8 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .2 7 .0 6 .5 5 .9 6 .0 5 .3 4 -4 4 -4 3- 1 -8 3 7 .7 7 .6 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 7 .4 7 .1 6 .9 6 .4 5 .9 5 .9 5 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4 .3 2 -8 3 7 .4 7 .4 7 .3 7 .2 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 .5 6 .1 5 .6 5 .6 5 .0 4 .4 4 .4 3 -8 3 7 ,2 7 .1 7 .1 7 .0 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 6 .3 5 .8 5 .4 5 .3 4 .8 4 .2 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 ___7,I X .___7 t l L_ -----B à i ----- 1 IN IT IA L P- . ¿Ul . ft ?AA..03 3- ft 4 . ,7 5 .5 4.1 4. 7 4 .4 3 .3 4 .2 3 .9 4. 0 4 .1 3. 4 3 .4 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -83 2 -8 3 2 12 , > a a. 214, 55 QUARTER P R E LIM IN A R Y PR6PARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE 14 --------- BANK OF ST. LOUIS P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N C UR RE N T D O L L A R S ______________COMPOUNDED AN N UA L R A T E S O f CHAN GE________________ TERM INAL QUARTER * -7 9 — 1=12— 2=12— 2=11___*=12— l= & fi— 2 - g Q 2=ftfl— á= £Q — 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 9.5 11 .4 3 -8 1 4 - 8 1 ___ 1 - 8 2 2 - Q 2 ___ 3 = £ 2 ___4 - 8 2 ___ L - S 3 ___2 - A 3 ? ._____ 2-79 9.4 - 2 = 2 2 ____ M t ? 4 -7 9 8 .5 U t7 l* t? 1 1.8 1 2.3 1 4.3 1 3.7 - ± - 8 0 ____ U . 7 12.0 13,3 1 2.4 11.2 _ 2 *8 ___ 10*2____ 8 , 6 6 .2 lt? _ 1 0.6 10.7 1 0,1 9 .0 7 .9 1 1.1 1 1 , 2 ___ U * J ___ D , 0 1 0,4 10.1 2 -8 0 9 .9 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 - l z 8 1 ____ 1 1 , 5 1 1.1 1 4.8 14 >7___ n t 6___ I L J ___ L L ± ¿ ___ L1_l2___ 1 1x 2 ___ l ± * l ___ 1* >7 2 -fl l 1 1 . 1 ___ 11*2___ 11*5___ L W Q ___ 1 0 , 6 ___ 10*5___1 2 . 9 3 -8 1 11.1 1 1.2 11.5 11.1 1 0.7 4 -8 1 1 0.5 10.5 1 0.7 1 0.3 9 .8 1 -8 2 10.3 10.3 10.4 1 0.0 9 ,6 9 .4 10.6 2 -8 2 10.0 10.0 10.2 9 .7 9 .3 9 .1 10.1 3 -8 2 9 .9 9 .8 9 .9 9 .5 9 ,2 9 .0 9 .8 9 .2 CO 1 9 .7 9 .7 9 .8 9 .4 9 .1 8 .9 9 .6 1 -8 3 9 .5 9 .4 9 .5 9 .1 8 .8 8 .6 9 .2 9 -7 11-1 H .7 1 ,8 3 5 ^ 1 0-4 7 1, 9 .3 7 -6 9 .9 8 ,9 7 .5 7 .6 5 .7 7,.5 9 .5 8 .7 7 .5 7 .5 6 .2 7, 7 .2 8 .5 7 .5 7 .5 6 .5 7, 7 .3 7 .5 9 .1 8 .4 7 .5 7 .5 6 -8 7,.5 7- 5 7 -7 8 .7 8 .0 I 1 -2 B I L L I O N S OF &S_ ANNUAL R A T E S I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R __ 3 -9 2 -8 3 9 .8 9 .7 9 .8 9 .5 9 .2 9 .0 9 .7 9 .2 8 .7 8 .1 8 .1 7 .7 3 -8 3 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .4 9 .1 8 .9 9,5 9 ,i 6 ,6 3 *0 8,1 7 ,7 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -81 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 IN IT IA L ft,»3 8- 5 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 , 1 1>QT? fl 7 -ft 2 ,0 4 6 .9 6 .5 5 .2 2 ^0 7 3 .0 ft-ft 9 -1 in-n 15.1 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 ? r 14.7 T n 2 -8 3 Q U A RT ER P R E L IM IN A R Y P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN 1972 D O L L A R S B IL L IO N S TERM INAL QUARTER IN IT IA L ANNUAL R A T E S 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -7 9 0 .9 2 -7 9 0 .1 -0 .7 3 -7 ? 1 .7 2 .1 5 ,1 4 -7 9 2 .1 2 .5 4 .2 3 .3 1 -8 0 1 ,7 1 .9 2 .7 1 .6 -0 .1 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -81 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2—82 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1—8 3 2 -8 3 -Q 2 -8 0 0 .0 -0*1 0 .0 -1 .6 -4 .0 -7 .7 3 —8 0 0 .6 0 .6 0 .9 -0 .2 -1 .3 -1 -9 4 -3 4 -8 0 1 ,1 1 ,2 1 ,5 0 ,8 0 .1 0 .2 4 .5 4 .6 1 -8 1 1 .6 1 .7 2 .1 1 .6 1 .3 1 .6 5 .0 5 .3 5 .9 2 -8 1 1 ,5 1 ,6 1 ,? 1 ,5 1 .1 1 .4 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 0 .5 3 -8 1 1 .7 1 ,8 2 .1 1 .7 1 .5 1 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .3 2 .0 3 -5 4 -8 1 1,3 1 ,3 1 ,6 1 .2 0 .9 1 .1 2 .6 2 .3 1 .7 0 .3 0 .2 -3 .0 957 •4 9 * 4 ,7 962 •9 0 * 5 .7 1 -8 2 1 ,4 1 ,* 1 ,6 1 .3 1 .1 1 .2 2 .6 2 .3 1 .8 0 .8 0 -9 -0 .3 2 .4 2 -8 2 1 .5 1 ,6 1 .8 1 .5 1 .3 1 .4 2 .6 2 .4 2 .0 Ì.3 1 .5 0 .8 2 .8 3. 1 7 -1 2 -0 0 -9 3 -8 2 _ 1 ,5 1 .5 1 .7 1 .4 1 .2 1 .4 2 -4 2 -7 1 -9 1-? 1.4 fi-ft 4 -8 2 1 ,6 1 .7 1 ,8 1 .6 1 .4 1 .6 2 .6 2 .4 2 .1 1 .5 1 .7 1 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 3 .6 1 -8 3 1 ,7 1 .7 1.9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .7 2 .6 2 .4 2 .2 1 .7 1 .9 1 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 -5 •*-3 2 -9 2 -8 3 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 2 .3 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 2 .6 2 .9 2 .8 3 .8 4 .1 4 -3 5 -5 8 .4 1 0.0 3 -8 3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 2 .4 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 3 .7 4 .0 4 .1 5 .0 5 .4 6 .7 3^4 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 l-e i 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 IN IT IA L P- OF QUARTER o 7 i,n 9 7 9 -A 1 1 .0 19 .2 W QUARTER PR E LIM IN AR Y PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS OCTOBER 2 0 . 1983 15 CROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANHUAI RATES OF CHANGE____________ B IL L IO N S - T E fW IN A l QUARTER A N N U AL R A T E S 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 1 -8 0 4 -7 9 1 -7 9 6 ,0 2 -7 9 9 .6 1 3.3 3 -7 9 7 .5 8 .3 4 -7 9 1 .9 0 .5 -5 .3 -1 3 .3 1 -6 0 2 .5 1 .7 -2 .0 -4 .5 -7 .9 -1 1 .4 - 1 0 . 15 - 2 1 , >8 - 1 1 , .8 - 1 9 .1 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1— A1 7 -ftl V A 1 4 -ftl 2 -A 2 4— ft 7 1 -A % 420 •3 ¿ft] , o 2 ,4 -4 .0 3 -8 0 -4 .2 -5 .8 -9 .2 -1 2 .1 Q*2_ - 0 . 5 -2 .6 -3 .8 M 6 *ft 5,.1 422 *0 - 1 , »2 - 3 , >2 4 .8 ____ ________________1*4____7 .9 4*9 -1 4 .2 9 .0 379 •* 38*i 411 . 7 2 1 .2 __ _______ 4 9 . fl -1 * 2 ____ 5 x1 ____1x3____ ________6x2____Z x l ___1 3 .4 1 9 ,9 15 .7 1 .7 - 1 4 . 9 - A ,4 — 16..6 -1 7 ,»5 9. .4 .1 4 . if) i -, 1 2 -8 2 1 .6 1 .3 0 .3 0 .1 1 .5 1 .1 4 .7 7 .8 3 .3 3 -8 2 1 .0 0 .7 —0 .2 -0 .5 0 .7 0 .3 3 .4 5 .9 1 .9 4 -8 2 -2 .0 -2 .5 -3 .6 -4 .1 -3 .3 -4 .0 -1 .7 -0 .2 -4 .3 -1 0 .2 -0 .9 -1 .4 0 .9 2 .5 -0 .8 -5 .8 - 8 .5 -1 2 . ,7 -1 ? , 2 4 .? 6 .4 . . . ^ 6 -0 .5 - 2 .4 9 . 7 ____ 7 . 4 1 -8 3 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 -1 .9 2 -8 3 2 .1 1 .9 1 ,2 1 ,1 2 t2 . 3 -8 3 4 ,4 4 ,3 3 ,8 3 ,8 5 .0 5 .0 7 .6 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 . 3 -8 0 —4 .1 - f t .0 -1 4 .. 4 32 . ,5 —A*,5 r* 377, .4 -1 3 .9 -1 9 ..6 -2 0 ,.7 - 1 4 ..1 -2 3 .,9 - 3 8 ..0 - 5 . ,4 - 3 , ,7 - 4 . ,4 - f t . ,7 - 9 . ,7 •XI . 4 5,,1 4. .1 7-.8 4 2.2 . 4*n 1 5 3.9 3 . 9 ____ 2 x 1 ____ 0*5____ 2*9___ 1 2 . Q___12*5___ 17*8___4 5 . 9 ___5 3 , 7 ___ 5 3 . 5 4 -8 0 1 -81 IN IT IA L P- 1 -A ? __ 3 . 4 t 4— 81 2 -8 0 M *. 1 2 -8 0 4 -fifi OF 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 QUARTER P R E LIM IN A R Y GR OSS P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C IN VES TM EN T IN 1972 D O L L A R S B I L L I O N S OF ____D O L L A R S ____ AN N UA L R A T E S t e r m in a l QUARTER 4 -7 8 ___1 -7 9 ___2=22___2=22__ 4 - 7 2__ L~flQ__ 2 -ftfl__ 3=Ä0__ 4 -Q Q ___l^ f lJ ___2=*J___ 3=Ä1___4-fil ___ 1 -8 2 ___2-rfl2. . 3-a? __ 4 -8 2 ___L=&3__ 1 -7 9 ____- 1 , 2 2 -7 9 -C L.7__ - 0 . 3 3 -7 9 - 2 . 7 ___=2x3__ - 6 . 6 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _ 4—79 1 -8 0 -7 .0 -8 .8 241^ 3 - — 1 2.8 -1 8 .6 - 6 . 0 __ -7 * 1 __ r 9 . 3 - 1 0 .6 22 S --3 - 1.8 224. 3 2 -8 0 -1 1 .3 -1 3 .2 -1 6 .1 -1 9 .1 -1 9 .3 -3 3 .7 4 -8 0 —6 . 9 -7 .7 -8 .8 -9 .3 —6 . 8 -8 .4 7 .7 2 8.1 210, >0 777 .-7 1 -8 1 -3 .7 -4 .0 —4 . 5 -4 .1 -0 .9 -0 .7 1 3.6 2 7.3 26.5 3 -e i -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .2 2 .8 3 .5 13.2 19.7 17.0 1 2.8 1 2.4 7 ^ ., 4 -6 1 -2 .9 -3 .1 -3 .3 -3 .0 -0 .8 -0 .7 6 .3 9 .7 5 .6 -0 .6 -6 .7 221 ,- 7 1 -8 2 -5 .8 -6 .1 —6 . 6 —6 . 7 -5 .2 —5 . 6 -0 .8 0 .8 -3 .9 2 -8 2 -5 .1 -5 .4 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .4 -4 .7 -0 .2 1.2 -2 .7 3 -8 2 -5 .2 -5 .5 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .5 -4 .8 -0 .9 0 .3 4 -8 2 -7 .4 -7 .8 -8 .3 -8 .4 -7 .5 -8 .0 —4 r.9 1 -8 3 -5 .6 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .1 -5 .1 -5 .4 -2 .3 2 -8 3 -3 .1 -3 ,2 -3 ,4 -3 .2 -2 .0 -2 .0 1 .3 3 -8 3 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 ,1 -0 .7 0 ,6 0 .8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 l- b O 229, ,5 « < 1 0 199.► 7 3 .4 -3 .2 -7 .4 -11 .0 -1 6 . 0 -1 3 .8 -1 .3 —5 . 8 -4 .4 -7 .8 -1 1 .9 -1 5 .5 -2 0 . 1 -1 9 .5 -1 4 .0 -2 1 .5 - 3 4 , .6 -1 .5 -4 .4 -7 .6 -1 3 . 5 -1 1 .6 -4 .9 -7 .5 -fl. .3 28.7 2 .3 0 .0 -2 .5 -4 .3 -6 .5 -3 .5 4 .2 4 .4 fii.0 38.8 4 9 .8 4 .1 5 .3 3.4 1 .4 0 .2 -1 . 3 2 .2 1 0.0 11*4. 16. .1 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -6 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 rs» -1 9 . ? -1 7 .5 1 -1 2 .2 o -7 .7 1 -? fl. 6 -3 4 .2 IN IT IA L P- 5 -1 6 .9 201 ,f 4 19ft.. 4 210, . 2 . 2 -8 3 QUARTER PR ELIM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE OCTOBER 20. 1983 16 8ANK OF ST. LOUIS _ GO VER NM ENT P U R C H A S E S OF GOOOS A NO S E R V I C E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ---------------------------------------- ¿ O H E Q U N D t C L A M t t U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE _____________________ B IL L IO N S OF t e r m in a l AN N UA L R A T E S 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 6 *0____ 6 ,9 ____ 9 . 7 1 2.6 47ft. V 4 - 7 9____ 1 0 , 3 ___ I 2 t l ___ 14*$___ 1“ « 0 ____ 1 1 . 6 13 »3 1 5,5 17,0 17,1 - U t l ___ L2Ll5___ L!L «_2___ l i n 2 ___ 15^8___ l ^ f e _ 3 -6 0 10.7 4 -8 0 U t3 1 1.7 1 2.7 12,7 A 2 il2___L 3 , 1___1 3 .2 - 1 . - 8 1____ L L t 5 ___ 11*2___ I i ± i ___ 1 3 . 2 1 1 ,3 8 . 5 ____2 , 7 1 2 .3 ___1 0 . 9 . 0 ___ I 5 * h 12.5 1 1 . 3 ___ U U À ___ ________ U . Q _ n , ? _ _ .1 2 , 1 12.0 11.2 io . 1 — 5 8 3 .5 3 - 6 1 ____ 1 0 . 9 ___ 11 . 5 ___ 1 2 , 1 12.0 11.3 10.4 600 . 3 l L t ? ___ 1 2 . 4 12.4 1 1.9 1 1 . 2 ___ ________ 1 2 * 2 ___ L U 4 ___ L0_^2___ L2U3___ L 5 . S L 1 0.5 10,6 1 Q ,Q 2 - 8 1 ____ 1 0 f _ i z 9 J ____ l i t f r . 10 .8 1 -8 3 10. 8 9 .2 8 ,6 9 .5 8 .? 7 . 6 ____ 8^2____ 7 . 0 ____ 2.8_ 10*9 1 U 2 ___ L U i ___ L 0 . f r ____ 2 jl2 ____ 2_^t___ _________ 2^_5____ £*£____ 2 ^ fi _ - 9 . 2 - 11.2 11.5 1 1.4 JL O ^ B ___ 1 ^ 6 ___ 1 0 . 4 7^1 1 1 . 0 ___ 1 0 . 4 ___ 1 0 , 0 ___ 1.0,8___ 1 0 . 3 ___ ^ 9 ___ 1 0 . 7 ___ 1 0 . 4 ____ 9 . ___ 6 5 i * J ___ _ 8 ^ à ___ 1 6 . 2 - 679 + 1 „10 . 0 ____ 9 ^ 4 ____ 8 , 9 ___ 9,<?_____ 9 . 9 ____ 8 . 4 ___ 8 . 9 ____ 8 „4 ____ I* 0 _. 9 .9 10.1 1 0.0 9 .5 0 ,9 9 .8 10.0 10.2 1 0.0 9 .6 9 , I ____ 8 , 7 ____ 9 . 2 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 0 ,5 2 -8 0 9,_Q 3 -8 0 8 .4 7 .9 8 .2 4 -8 0 7 .7 6 .4 6 .6 - S . 2.- ____8 . 1 ____ 7 . 1 ____ - U S ____ 8 . 8 __ 9_>6____ 8 , 2 1 -8 1 IN IT IA L P- ___ 6 2 Z * £ __ 2 -8 1 3 -81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 J L * 2 ____ L a _ ___ 6 S 3 . it ___ 3 .6 - 7 0 1 . BW 7 *0 ____ 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 QUARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y GOVE RN MEN T P U R C H A S E S OF GOOOS AND S E R V I C E S IN 1972 D O L L A R S B IL L IO N S QUARTER ANNUAL R A T E S 4 -7 0 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -0 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2- a i 1 -7 9 -1 .9 2 -7 9 -0 .6 3 -7 9 0 .5 1 .7 2 .9 4 -7 9 1 .3 2 .3 3 .2 3 .5 1 -8 0 1 .0 2 .7 3 .5 3 .8 4 .0 2 -8 0 2 .2 3 .0 3 .6 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 3 -0 0 1 .3 1 .8 2 .1 1 .9 1 .3 0 .0 -3 .8 4 -0 0 0 .9 1 .3 1 .4 l. l 0 .5 -0 .7 -3 .0 1 -8 1 1 .3 1 .7 1 ,8 1 ,6 1 .2 0 .6 -0 .6 1 .1 4 .5 2 -8 1 0 .9 1 .2 1 .3 l. l 0 .7 0 .0 -0 .9 0 .0 1 .1 -2 .1 3 -0 1 1 .2 1 .5 1.6 1 .4 1.1 0 .7 0 .0 1 .0 2 .0 o .a 3 -9 4 -8 1 1 .4 1 .7 1 .8 1 ,7 1 .5 1 .1 0 .6 1 .6 2 .5 1 .9 3 .9 3— ft 1 4 -81 1 -8 ? ? —Ô? 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -Ö 3 2 7 6 ,4 0 .6 ? 7A - A M l,? ?A A TA -2 .1 ?A«i - A 28*. 0 4 .0 ? A Q -A 1 -8 2 1 .3 1 .5 1 .6 1 .5 1 .3 0 .9 0 .5 1 .3 1 .9 1 .3 2 .5 2 -8 2 0 .8 1 .0 1 .1 0 .9 0 .7 0 .3 -0 .2 0 .4 0 .8 0 .1 0 .6 -0 .5 -2 .6 -4 .9 3 -0 2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .7 1 .6 1 .4 1 .1 0 .8 1 .4 1 .9 1.5 2 .3 1 .9 1 .2 1 .9 9 .3 4 -0 2 1 .9 2 .2 2 .3 2 .1 2 .0 1.8 2 .4 3 .0 2 .8 3 .6 3 .5 4 .8 1 0.0 1 -0 3 1 .3 1 .5 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 1 .0 0 .8 1 .2 1.6 1 .3 1 .8 1 .4 0 .9 1 .2 3 .3 0 .5 -A .fi «0 1 <N( 1 .1 1 .3 1 .4 1 .3 1 .1 0 .9 0 .6 1 .0 1 .3 1 .0 1 .4 1 .1 0 .6 0 .7 2 .2 -0 .0 -5 .0 -1 .1 3 -0 3 1.4 1 .5 1 .6 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 1 .0 1 .4 1.7 1 .5 1 .9 A , 6 1 .3 1 .5 2 .9 1 .3 -1 .6 2 .2 4 -7 « 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 IN IT IA L P- OF -0 .3 28 5 . 8 ? 9 ? -? 10.7 299 . 7 79? . 1 2 -8 3 QUARTER PR ELIM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. 17 LOUIS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN CURRENT DOLLARS ______ COMPOUNDED AHüll AI RATES OF CHANGE_________ TERMINAL QUARTER -±*13— 1-7?— 2=12— 2=12— 4=22__ 1-flfl__ 2-flfl— 3-Qfl— 4-flQ__ l - a i BILLIONS OF -------- DfU. L A R S ____ 2-a i vai 4 -a i i -8 2 ? -ñ ? i-fl? 4-a? i- a * ? -a i ANNUAL RATES ■ 1 - 72____ 12x1________ 2 -7 ? __10,8 ?_.3___ . 2 -7 2 ____ 1 1 .5 11 «2 1 3 .Q _!=&£___ 11.7 11,6 12,3__ 12*0 Ì>874.3 _____________ ___________________ ____________________________________________________________ ___________________ 13,2 1,771.7 .1 »7Btt.fi JL = £ fi____ L 0 x4 ___10*1___10*2____ 2 x2 ____ ftx2 ____4*T_ ■ A - e g ____ 1 0 , 8 10,6 1 0 , 8 ___ 10 * 3 9o ___U - i - J l ___ 1114 2-11___ 11,2 11- t i __ 11*6__ L U I __ 11,6 11*1. 13.3 11,1 10.6__ 1Z*3__ L2-Q__ I U ) 11,3__ 11*0__ 11*2 a^ a 13,6__ 13x1 9 .0 _ - 2 -, 0 9 2-U> 11,1 11.3__ 11, 1 11,2 -1=12___ 10.4 10,3 10,3 1Q.1___ 2*£__ LO.4___ 2*2___ 2*1___ a^J___ 3^3___ 3^5___ l^á_ 9 .9 10,0 2-62 1 0 .1 10,1 9,7 9.6 10,6 9.2 12*0 11x7 9,8 9,4 11*1__ I Q , 5 ?,i?n.n -1=31___ 11.2 8.6 7,7 11,3 7.4___ 4^3 -3-,7 9 .4 4 -8 2 9 .6 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 9 .1 8 .7 9 ,2 8 ,7 8 .1 7 ,4 7 ,1 5 .2 5 .1 6 .3 6 .5 6 .8 1 -8 3 9 .4 9 .2 9 .2 8 .9 8 .8 8 ,4 8 .8 8 .4 7 .7 7 .1 6 .8 5 .2 5 .1 6 .0 6 .0 6 .0 5 .1 2 -8 3 9 .3 9 .1 9 .1 8 .8 8 .8 8 .4 8 ,7 8 ,3 7 ,8 7 ,2 7 .0 5 .6 5 .6 6 .5 6 .6 6 .7 6 .7 8 .2 3 -6 3 9 .4 9 .2 9 .2 9 .0 8 .9 8 .6 8 .9 8 .6 8 .1 7 .6 7 .4 6 .2 6 .3 7 .2 7 .4 7 .8 8 .1 9 .6 1 0-9 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 ?y>??7..8 ?, ,9 ?,» V ì i , .0 ?( >5P IN IT IA L QUARTER P- P R E L IM IN A R Y DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______ BILLIONS OF ___DOLLARS___ ANNUAL RATES 4-.? 3__ 1=22__ 2=12__ 2=12__ *=72__ l=fiO__ 2=fi0__ 3=8Q__ *=8Q__ 1=81__ 2=fll__ 3=81__ á=ñl__ Lrfl2__ 2rfl2__ 3nñ2__ áurñ2__ lrfl3 __ 2.-B3 TERM IN AL, quarter 1 -7 ,9 2 -72 2-7 2 4-7-2 1-8Q -2 = ft£ - 3-80 2.? _ JLtA__0*2_ _2x0___ 1x2___ 2*2_ 1 ,rn io ..A _ L jl5____ 1*2____ l x l ____ 0*L_ 1 r0?0,, \ _1*I___ 1*3___ 1*2___ 1*2_ J&*3____Q x J L JML 0,9___ 0*3___ 0 .6 2 .3 _ :d*0__ -1 .6 -3 ,3 -0 ,1 -1 .3 -0 .1 4 -e o _L*2____ 1x0____ 1*2____ O xS____ 0*2____0 ,5 1-81 _ lx£ ___ 1*3___ 1x6___ 1*4___ 1 ,6 - 2-ai .3=81 4-8 1 _1=&2 JL-^2 3-82 4-82 1 -8 3 3 -8 3 a 1 ,025 «► 2.9 -3 .3 ____4*1_ 1,Q4D.7 ___ U 5 ___ 1*2___ 1*4___ 1*2___ 1*3___ 1*3___ 3*3___ 3,1__1*SL-2*2___ 2*2___ 2*4___ 2*3___ 2*2___ 2*2___ 4^4___ 4 ^ ___ 5.0___ 5^3___ 8.9_ 1,9 _Lt2___ 2x0___ I t? _L*3____ 1 ,4 2* 1___ 2*1___ 2*4___ 3*3_ 1 .5 ____ 1*4____ 1*3_ 1 .4 _2*4____ 2x3_ _ 2 * 0 _ JL*3___ 1*3___ 1x6___ 1*4___ 1*6___ 1*3___ 2.4 1.4___ U 2 ___ 1x4___ 1x2___ 1x4___ 1.3 2.1 2.3 -1*2___ lx6 _ _ U 3 ___ 1*4___ 1x3___ 1*4___ 1x3___ 1*4___ 2*1____ 2 . 0 1,6 1 .5 ---- _____ 4, v i,r *, v 1 .9 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 2 ,1 2 ,0 2 ,6 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 JLx6___ 1x3___ 1x6___ 1*3____ 2 . 2 ------4_*_I____4 t I__— fct J 2.0 2 .1 ^3.4 1 , 2 __ -1 .0 __ -CL. 1 .3 - 1.4 1 .2 l.Q __ =0.8__ =£U6___ O.a 1 .9 -0 .3 1.8 1 . 4 ____ L*3 ___- 0 . 1 ____ 0 . 2 1 .4 1 .9 1 . 6 ____ 1*3___ 0*4____ 0 . 7 1 .8 1 .7 -2.6_ Jl.U __ £ x U _ 1*0 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 2 .3 1 .5 1 .9 2 .9 3 .1 3 .9 4 .4 S- 1 6 .7 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1-8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 __ - __ *.g-- __ U*_Q____ . ..J __ 3 . 2 ------------------------ t t u a J . 4 ------1 .1 0 0 .8 P IN IT IA L QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE 18 BANK OF S T. LOUIS CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL -IE-KHINAIL__________________________ ______ __________ QUARTER 1 -7 9 W S 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -fiO _ A -7 ? 2?#? 1 -7 9 1 ?.* 3 .3 2 -7 9 1 3.2 5 .8 8 .4 . 3 -7 ? 13.1 8 .2 10.7 13.0 4 -7 9 8 .0 3 .2 3 .2 0 .6 B ILLIO N S OF _______ IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 V - fll 2 -8 1 PfU I ARS 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -A 7 7 -8 7 %— ft 7 4 -A 7 1 )4 0 t Q 1A1 t ? 1KA. r * H r? , ^ -1 0 .4 1A 5 r n 1 -8 0 7 .1 3 .1 3 .1 1 .4 —4 - 0 2 .9 2 -6 0 -4 .1 -8 .7 -1 1 .0 -1 5 .3 -2 3 .0 —2 8 . 6 -5 0 .5 3 -8 0 -1 .0 -4 .7 -6 .0 -8 .7 -1 3 .4 -1 4 .4 -2 1 .9 4 -8 0 - I *0 -4 .2 -5 .2 -7 .4 -1 1 .0 -1 1 .1 -1 5 .3 1 0.7 -0 .5 )-ß \ 0 .6 -2 .2 -2 .8 -4 .3 -7 .0 -6 .3 -8 .4 1 2.4 7 .3 15-9 1 1 ^9-4 2 3.3 1 4 A -7 2 -8 1 -2 .8 -5 .6 -6 .5 -8 .2 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .0 -1 3 .5 —0 . 6 -7 .5 -1 0 -7 -1 1 •2 3 -6 1 -1 .3 -3 .7 -4 .4 -5 .7 -7 .9 -7 .5 -9 .1 2 -6 -2 -0 -7 .4 - i n .5 4 -8 1 -1 .7 -3 .9 -4 .6 -5 .8 -7 .7 -7 .3 -8 .7 1 .1 -2 .8 -3 .4 - 9 .1 1 -8 2 -7 .8 -1 0 .2 -1 1 .2 -1 2 .8 -1 5 .0 -1 5 .5 -1 7 .6 -1 1 .4 -1 6 -1 -1 8 -9 - 2 5 .8 2 -8 2 -6 .3 -8 .4 -9 .3 -1 0 .6 -1 2 .5 -1 2 .7 -1 4 .3 -8 .2 -1 2 .0 -1 3 .8 - 1 f t •ft - n . 1¿.A T A 16- 5 4- 5 141 - 7 - 6 .2 - 2 3 - 9 - 3 8 .5 - 5 9 . ,7 - ? 1 .ft - 1 1 . 4 1 17 ,0 1 6-9 1 17 -4 -6 .1 -8 .1 -8 .9 -1 0 .1 -1 1 .8 -1 1 .9 -1 3 .2 -7 .7 -1 0 .9 -1 2 .3 -1 6 .3 - 1 3 . 0 - 1 9 .1 - 2 3 . ,0 6 .5 -3 -0 —6 . 3 -8 .2 -8 .9 -.10.1 - 1 1 . 6_ - 1 1 . 7 -1 2 .9 -7 .9 -1 0 .8 -1 2 .0 - 1 5 . 4 - 1 2 . 5 - 1 7 .3 -1 9 . 9 0 .7 -6 .5 -9 .9 1 -8 3 -7 .0 -8 .8 -9 .5 -1 0 .6 -1 2 .1 -1 2 .2 -1 3 .3 -8 .8 -1 1 .5 -1 2 .7 -1 5 .7 - 1 3 . 2 - 1 7 .3 - 1 9 - 4 -4 .2 -1 0 -3 -1 3 -7 -1 7 -4 2 -8 3 -3 .4 1 -5 .4 -6 .2 -7 .4 -7 .2 -7 .9 -3 .0 -5 .1 -5 .5 - 7 .7 -4 . 2 - 6 , .6 —6 . 9 1 0-0 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 l - i 31 2 -8 1 3 -81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 0 *■ 3 -8 2 4 —82 1 1 6 -5 1 13 .5 1 0 8 -2 N .A . 3 -8 3 » N A TIO N A L IN CO M E B A S I S 1 -8 3 I N I T I A L QUARTER _______________________ N .A . - NOT A V A IL A B L E PR E P A R E D BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA N K O F HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929^75: Statistical Tables (Stock number OT3-010-001Ol-l, price $10.00). Estimatesfor 1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for 1980-82 appear in the July 1983 Survey oT~Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications are available from the SuperiTvfendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 ST. L O U IS I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES* MANUFACTURING AND TRADE . 68 68 .64 64 .60 60 . 56 56 . 52 52 . 48 48 44 . 40 40 . 36 36 ) .3732 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 * RAT I OS BASED ON SE ASO N AL L Y ADJUSTED DATA. 1978 1979 SOURCE: 1980 1981 1982 1983 ' J . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERI ODS OF B USI NESS R E C E S S I O N S . LATEST DAT A P L O T T E D : AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 20 LOUIS
@FedFRASER