Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1983
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O ver the past decade, there w ere many effo rts by policymakers to change the trend and composition o f government expenditures. The accompanying table sum m arizes trends in government expenditures over the past 10 years. The period is divided into two subperiods in order to remove the distorting e ffe c t o f the business cycle on expenditures. The first subperiod is from the business cycle peak in 1973 to the peak in 1980, and the second subperiod covers developments since then. As the table shows, the growth of total government expenditures (adjusted to avoid double counting o f federal grants-in-aid) changed little between the subperiods. Expenditures by state and local governments slowed significantly whereas federal expenditure growth changed little. The three years; The slowing o f growth in composition o f federal expenditures shifted markedly over the past defense expenditures accelerated while those for nondefense slowed. o f nondefense expenditures, in turn, was attributable to a deceleration expenditures other than transfer payments. Total government expenditures grew faster than the nation's G N P . As a result, total government expenditures were 35.4 percent o f G N P in the second quarter of 1983, compared with 30.4 percent about 10 years earlier. A ll o f the rise in this proportion was attributable to the federal government and was focused largely in the growth of transfer payments. — Keith M. Carlson TR E ND S IN G O V E R N M E N T E X P E N D IT U R E S Compounded annual rates o f change T o ta l governm ent!/ Federal Defense Nondefense T ransfer payments Other State and local GNP 1/1980 to 11/1983 IV/197 3 to 1/1980 11.1% 12.1 15.2 11.2 13.4 8.6 6.8 7.7 11.4% 12.4 9.0 13.6 14.4 12.7 10.1 10.5 Percent o f G N P ÏÏA1983 Î/1980" IV/1973 35.4% 25.0 6.1 18.9 10.6 8.3 13.1 32.0% 21.9 4.9 17.0 9.0 8.1 13.4 30.4% 19.7 5.3 14.4 7.2 7.1 13.7 — — — 1/ Adjusted for federal grants-in-aid to state and local governments. Views expressed do not necessarily reflec t o ffic ia l positions of this Bank or the Federal Reserve System. _ TOT AL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE MONTH IN IT IA L 1 term inal THOUSANDS OF PtRSONS MONTH 1-82 2-82 0*1 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0* 8 -1 .3 4 -8 2 5-8 2 6-8 2 7-82 8-8 2 9 -8 2 10 -8 2 1 1 -8 2 12 -82 1 -8 3 2-8 3 3 -8 3 4-8 3 5-8 3 6-8 3 7-8 3 99 ,6 9 5 9 9 ,5 9 7 -1 .4 99 ,4 8 4 5 -8 2 0.9 1.2 2 .4 6 .3 6 -8 2 -0 .0 -0 .0 0.3 1.2 -3 .7 7 -8 2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .0 0 .4 -2 .4 -l.l 8 -8 2 -0 .0 -0 .0 0 .2 0 .6 -1 .2 0 .0 1.2 >0 1 00 1 * CD 2 -8 2 3-92 3-82 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 . 1 0. 1 -1 .3 —0 . 6 -0 .3 -1 .7 10 -82 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .7 -0 .6 -2 .0 -1 .5 -1 .6 -3 .0 -4 .3 11-8 2 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .4 -2 .2 -2 .4 -0 .5 1 2 -8 2 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .8 -1 .8 -0 .5 -0 .6 9 9 ,9 9 4 9 9 ,6 8 1 99 ,5 88 9 9 ,6 8 3 99 ,5 43 99 ,1 7 6 9 9 , 136 -0 .5 99 ,0 9 3 1 -8 3 —0 . 6 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 0.1 2-83 —0 . 6 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .2 — 1.2 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 3 -8 3 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .4 -1 .1 -0 .8 -0 .7 -1 .0 -0 .9 -0 .2 -0 .1 0 .0 0.0 0 .5 4 -83 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .0 -0 .6 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .1 0.6 0 .8 1 .1 1.4 2 .4 4.4 5-83 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .0 -0 .4 -0 . 1 -0 .0 -0 .2 0 .0 0 .7 0 .9 l . l 1 .4 2 .0 2.8 1.2 6-83 0.8 0.8 1.0 1 .1 0 .7 l . l 1.3 1.3 1 .7 2.4 2.9 3 .4 4.1 5.3 7.0 8.3 15.9 7 -8 3 l . l 1 .1 1.3 1.4 l . l 1 .5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2 .8 3.3 3.8 4 .5 5.5 6.8 7 .6 10.9 6 .1 8 -8 3 1 .2 1 .2 1 .4 1.6 1 .3 1.6 1 .8 1 .9 2 .2 2.9 3 .3 3.8 4.3 5 .1 6 .1 6 .5 8.3 4.7 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 5-8 2 6-82 7 -8 2 8-8 2 9 -8 2 10 -82 12 - 9 2 L -8 3 2-43 3-9 3 4-9 3 5 -Û 3 4-8 3 5-83 0. 1 99 ,1 0 3 9 9 ,0 6 3 9 9 ,1 03 99 ,4 58 9 9 ,5 5 7 10 0,78 6 10 1,285 3 .3 10 1,563 7-8 3 I N I T I A L MONTH COMPOUNDED iANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L MONTH 1-82 2 -8 2 0.3 3 -8 2 -1 .2 2-8 2 3-82 4-8 2 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 THOUSANDS OF PfcPSONS 10-82 1 1 -8 2 12-82 1-8 3 2-8 3 3-83 6 -8 3 7-8 3 90 ,4 1 7 -2 .8 90 ,2 0 7 4-82 -1 .6 -2 .6 -2 .4 5-82 -1 .3 -1 .8 -1 .3 -0 .1 6-82 -1 .6 -2 .1 -1 .9 -1 .6 -3 .2 7-82 -2 .1 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .7 -4 .3 8- 8 2 -2 .1 -2 .5 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .3 -3 .4 -2 .5 9-82 -1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 -2 .4 -1 .4 -0 .4 10- 82 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .9 -2 .8 -2 .3 -2 .2 -3 .9 -2 .1 -3 .0 -2 .0 -1 .6 90,024 90,016 89,775 89,450 89 ,2 6 4 89 ,2 3 5 8 8 ,9 3 8 11 -82 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .2 12 -8 2 -2 .1 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 1-8 3 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 —I . 0 -1 .2 -0 .2 0.7 3.0 88 ,7 8 5 88 ,6 6 5 88,886 2-83 -1 .7 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .2 0 .5 -1 .9 3- 8 3 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .4 -l.l -0 .9 ^9.9 -0 .3 0 .1 0 .7 -0 .5 0.9 4-8 3 -1 .2 -1 .3 -l.l —1.0 -l.l -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .3 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.9 2.4 3*8 5-83 -0 .8 -0 .9 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.1 1.8 3.1 4.2 6-83 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 0.1 0 .5 0.8 0.9 1 .5 2.1 2.7 2.6 3.8 4 .7 5.2 5.8 7-83 -0.1 -0 .2 -0 .0 0 .2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1 .3 1.9 2 .4 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.9 8-83 -0 .4 ' -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 0.0 0 .4 0.6 0 .7 1.2 1.5 1 .9 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.4 1.7 ^0 .4 5-92 6-92 7- 9 2 8-9 2 9 - 8 2 10 -8 2 1 1 -8 2 12 -82 1-83 2-8 3 3-85 J-9 2 3-82 88,745 88,814 8 9 ,0 9 0 4 .6 89 ,4 2 1 89,844 90 »202P -5 .3 89 ,79 1P 5—83 I N I T I A L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY .FEDERAL RESERVE AAMK ÛF S l ^ LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 , 1983 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLION S I 15 OF RATIO PERSONS S E A S O N A L L Y ADJ US TED M ILLION S T 1 »5 OF 1 * ?! 15 ii I 1 § $ I 15 V. I 1 1 10 SCALE PERSONS * I 10 * 105 105 */. rx TOI T AL 100 +2. ox ’ IL-. / - H \j ' l&O l -2. rz 95 .6 100 -/. tz 95 V *2 . oz +/. 9Z +2. 4Z 90 ■1/89.8 -3.2Z -J9Z 90 " 85 85 PAYI^OLL 80 80 75 75 * * * 70 1975 1976 1977 1978 * t t 5 s V. * H t ♦ s 19 7 9 t 1980 1981 I 1982 t 70 1983 SOURCEi 9 . S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO DS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. AUGUST PRELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASONALLY PERCENT ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11. 11.0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCEt U .S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» AUGUST PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LO U IS 3 CONSUMER PRICE INOEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* _____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_______________________ TERMINAI___________________________________________________ _______________ I N I T I A L MONTH____________________________________________________________________1967«1QQ MONTH 1-8 2 3 -8 2 6 - 9 2 _7—82 8 - 8 2 4-8 2 5-92 2-82 1- 8 3 2 - 8 3 3—ft 3 4 - 8 3 ■¿-A3 A - A 3 9 - 8 2 10 -8 2 1 1—82 12— 82 7-fl3 2 -8 2 0*9 3 -8 2 0.2 4-82 I. 1 283 .4 -0 .4 2A3. .3 1*3 3*0 2A4..n 13.0 5 -8 2 4.0 5.0 7.9 6—82 5.9 7,2 9.8 13*4 13*9 7-82 6.1 7.2 9 .2 11*3 10*5 8-82 5.8 6.6 a. i 9 .4 8.2 5.5 3.8 9-82 5 .2 5.8 6.9 7.7 6 .4 4.1 2 .5 1*2 3*1 286..9 2<*0..0 7*3 291 -.7 292 - 5 .2 5.7 6.6 7 .2 6*1 4.3 3*3 4.6 5 .1 5 .8 6 .2 5.1 3.4 2*5 2*1 2*5 0*0 12-82 3.9 4 .2 4 .7 5.0 3*9 2 .3 1*3 0*7 0*5 -1 .6 -3 .2 1 -8 3 3.7 4 .0 4 .5 4*6 3*6 2*3 1*4 1*0 0.9 -0 .4 -0 .6 2.1 2 -8 3 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.9 2*9 1.7 0*9 0.4 0*2 -0 .9 -1 .2 -0 .2 -2 .4 3 -8 3 3 .1 3.3 3 .6 3 .7 2*8 1.7 1*0 0.6 0*5 -0 .4 -0 .5 0 .4 -0 .4 1.6 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.0 3*2 2*2 1*6 1*4 1.4 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 4 .4 7 .2 3 .6 3.8 4.1 4 .2 3.5 2.6 2.1 2*0 2*1 1.6 1.9 3.0 3.2 5.1 6.9 6.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 3 .4 2.6 2*2 2*0 2*1 1.7 2.0 2.9 3.0 4 .5 5.4 4 .6 2 .5 1 1 CD V* CO u> 10-82 11-82 1 292. 6-83 294..1 5.0 294. 2<>3..3 293. 293-»2 293. .3 .9 297..5 7-83 3 .6 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.5 2.8 2*4 2*3 2*4 2*1 2*4 3.2 3.4 4.6 5.3 4*7 3.7 . 4.9 8-83 3.7 3 .9 4.1 4 .2 3.6 2.9 2*6 2*5 2*6 2*4 2*7 3.4 3.6 4.7 5.3 4 .9 4.2 5.1 5.3 1-82 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 5-82 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8-82 9-82 10-82 11-8 2 12-82 1-83 2-83 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5-83 6 -8 3 7-83 298..7 300. 0 I N I T I A L MONTH »PATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATES RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OP S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 3 . 1983 PRODUCER PRICE INDE X, F INI SH EO GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* ________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________ 1-82 2-82 0 .9 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 5-82 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8-82 9-82 10 -8 2 11 -82 12-82 1-8 3_ 2-93 3 -9 3 4-9 ? 5-9 3 6 —93 7-83 2 7 7 .5 276. a 3 -8 2 -1 .1 -3 .0 4-8 2 -0 .3 -0 .9 1.3 5- 8 2 -0 .2 -0 .6 0 .7 2.3 2 .6 4.6 6 .2 12.8 7-82 2 .8 3.2 4.8 6.1 9.2 5 .7 8 -8 2 3.2 3.6 5.0 6.0 8.0 5.7 5.7 3 .3 4 .4 5.0 6.3 4 .2 3.5 6-82 1967 * 100 I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL 27 7 .1 0.0 277.1 279.9 2 9 1 .2 292,5 1.3 2 0 2 .0 9 -8 2 3 .0 10 -8 2 3.1 3.4 4.4 4 .9 5.9 4.2 3 .8 2 .8 4.3 11 -8 2 3 .6 3.9 4.8 5.3 6.2 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 5.9 7.4 1 2- 82 3 .6 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.8 4 .7 4 .5 4.2 5.2 5.6 293 tff 29 5. 5 3.8 296*4 1 -8 3 2.2 2 .3 2.8 3 .0 3.4 2.1 1.5 0 .7 0.5 -0 .7 -4 .5 -1 2 * 2 2 -8 3 2 .2 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 2 .1 1.6 0 .9 0.9 0.0 -2 .4 -5*3 2.1 3- 8 3 1.8 1.8 2.2 2 .3 2.6 1 .5 1.0 0 .3 0.1 -0 .7 -2 .6 -4 * 7 -0 .6 -3 .3 4—83 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 -0 .6 -2 .1 -3 * 5 -0*4 -1 .7 0*0 5-83 1 .7 1 .8 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 l.l 0 .6 0.5 -0 .1 -1 .3 -2 .2 0*4 -0 * 1 1*5 6-83 2.0 2 .0 2 .4 2.4 2 .6 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 -0 .3 -1 .0 1*4 1*3 2*9 4t3 5.6 7-83 1.9 2.0 2.3 2 .4 2.5 1 .8 1.5 1.1 l.l 0.7 -0*1 -0 .7 1 .4 1.3 2*5 3*3 3*4 It? .. . 8-8 3 2.1 2*1 2.4 2 .5 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 1. 4 1*1 0*4 0 .0 1.9 1*8 2*9 3*6 3.9 3*0 4*7 ¿-82 7-82 8 -Í2 9- 8 2 10 - 8 2 1 1 -8 2 12-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4-8 3 5-83 6 -8 3 7-8 3 1-82 2 -5 2 ~3 -8 2 in i 29 3 ,9 293.0 2 9 3 .0 3*0 293*7 285.0 _ 2 9 5 .3 2 9 * .4 _ T i a L Hôkth *D ATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER 9 , 1983 4 RATIO P R IC ES SCALE 1967-100 SEA SO NALLY RATIO CONSUMER P R IC E IN O EX B E 6 IN N IN « JANUAft i 1978 I S FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C P I - U ) . C P I - 0 BATA 8 E 6 IM M IH « 1983 I« C O R PO R A TE A REN TAL E 0 8 1V ALEN CE M EASURE F O * H O M E O IN C R S H IP P ER C E N T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S Of CHAKCE FOR P E R IO D S L A T ES T DATA PLO T T Efit A W #ST PRODUCER SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY P ER C E N T A C E S ARE A*#tUAL R A T E S O f LA T E S T BATA P LO T T E Dt COSTS. IN O IC A T E O . P R EP A R ED BY FED ER A L RATIO SCALE 1967-100 ADJUSTED A06U ST R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . P R IC ES RATIO IN D IC A T E D . M E P A R tD 5 SCALE I 967- 10 0 ADJUSTED CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S L O 0 IS BY FED ER A L R ESERVE B A « OF S T . L M IS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, F I N I S H E u CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* ____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE___________________________ TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L MONTH 2 -8 2 3-82 5-82 4-82 6—82 7-82 2-82 7 .8 3-8 2 2.8 -1 .8 4-82 8.7 9.2 21.4 5 -8 2 7 .3 7 .2 12.0 3 .3 6 -8 2 7.0 6.8 9.8 4.4 5 .6 7-82 2.4 1. 3 2.1 -3 .6 -6 .9 -1 7 .9 8-82 2 .2 1 .2 1.9 -2 .5 -4 .3 -9 .0 0.9 8-8 2 1967 Ji 100... J . 9 - S * 11-82 -1 2 -8 2 1-83 2-9 a_ 3 - 8 3 5-83 4-83 6 -8 3 261*6 2 5 9. 2 259.4 _ 1.2 0.3 0.7 -3 .0 -4 .5 -7 .7 -2 .1 -5 .0 0.2 0.5 -2 .6 -3 .7 -5 .9 -1 .5 -2 .7 -0 .5 1 1- 82 0.9 0.2 0.5 -2 .2 -3 .1 -4 .8 -1 .2 -1 .8 -0 .2 2 5 9 .3 258.2 0 .0 _25 9.2 12 -8 2 l.l 0.5 0.7 -1 .6 -2 .3 -3 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 0.8 1.4 2.8 1-83 0.8 0.2 0 .4 -1 .7 -2 .3 -3 .4 -0 .7 -1 .0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -2 .3 2-83 1.7 1.2 1.5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 1.1 1.2 2.4 3. 2 4 .2 5.0 12.8 3 -8 3 1.7 1.3 1.6 -0 .1 —0 . 4 -1 .1 1.3 1.3 2.4 3.0 3.8 4.1 7.4 2 .3 4-83 2.5 2 .1 2.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 2.6 2 .8 3.9 4.7 5 .7 6.4 9.5 7.8 5-83 2.0 1 .6 1 .8 0.5 0.2 —0 . 2 1.7 1 .8 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.8 5.4 3.1 25 9. 8 258.3 260.9 ¿6 L .4 13 .6 1 264.2 26 2 .9 6-8 3 1.4 1 .0 1. 2 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .9 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.0 I .9 2.7 0.3 -0 .3 -6 .6 -7 .5 7-8 3 0 .9 0.5 0.6 -0 .6 -0 .9 -1 .4 0.2 0 .1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 -1 .2 -2 .1 -6 .8 -7 .3 -7 .1 8-83 l.l 0 .7 0 .9 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .9 0 .5 0 .5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1. 1 1.6 -0 .2 -0 .6 -3 .9 -3 .3 ^ -1 .1 5*2 1-52 2-8 2 y-8 2 5 -8 2 6-82 ?-&2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3 -8 3 4-8 3 5-83 6-8 3 7 -8 3 2 6 1 .2 25 9.6 260.7 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVI SED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PRODUCER PRICE I NDEX, F I NI SHED GOODS» EXCLUOING FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* __________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______________________________ TERMINAL MQNTti I N I T I A L MONTH 4-82 5— 82 2 -8 2 -1 .3 3 -8 2 -2 .3 -3 .4 4-82 -2 .7 -3 .4 -3 .4 5 -8 2 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .3 -1 .3 6-82 0.9 1 .5 3 .2 6.6 15.1 6-82 7 -8 2 8-82 9-82 1 0- 82 11 -82 1967 « 1OO 12-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4 -8 3 5-83 6-8 3 7-83 29 2.0 29 1.2 280.4 280.1 283.4 7- 8 2 3.1 4.0 5.9 9.1 14 .8 1 4 .4 8-82 3 .6 4.4 6.1 8.6 12.1 10.6 6.9 9 -8 2 3 .5 4 .2 5.6 7.4 9 .7 8.0 4 .9 28 6 .6 29 9 .2 3 .0 29 8 .9 10 -8 ? 3 .8 4.4 5.6 7.2 9.0 7.5 5.3 4.5 6.0 11 -82 4.4 5.0 6. 1 7.5 9.0 7.9 6 .3 6.1 7.7 9.5 12-82 4 .3 4 .9 5.9 7.1 8.3 7.3 5 .9 5 .6 6.5 6.8 4 .2 1-83 2 .6 2.9 3.6 4 .4 5 .1 3.7 2 .0 1.1 0.6 -1 .1 -6 .0 -1 5 .2 2-83 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.4 3. 1 1.6 0 .7 0.2 -1 .1 -4 .4 -8 .5 -1 .2 3-83 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 2 .2 0.8 -0 .1 -0 .6 -1 .8 -4 .4 -7 .2 -2 .9 -4 .5 -0 .6 4 -8 3 1.4 1 .5 1.9 2.4 2.7 1 .6 0.2 5 -8 3 1 .6 1.8 2.2 2 .7 3.0 2.0 0 .8 0. 1 6 -8 3 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 2.6 1.6 1 .1 7-83 2 .2 2.4 2 .8 3.2 3.6 2 .7 1.8 8-83 2 .4 2.6 2.9 3 .3 3.6 2 .9 2 .0 6-8 2 7-8 2 8-82 9 -8 2 ------1-82 4 -8 2 “ 5 2 9 0. 3 2 9 2 .5 2 9 3 .5 289.5 2 8 9. 2 2 9 9. 1 -1 .1 -2 .2 -4 .4 -6 .4 -3 .3 -4 .3 -4 .1 -0 .2 -1 .1 -2 .7 -4 .0 -1 .0 -1 .0 0 .8 6. 0 0 .9 0.3 -1 .0 -1 .8 1.1 1.7 3.8 8.0 1 0 .0 1.4 1. 2 0.7 -0 .4 -1 .0 1 .6 2.2 3.9 6 .7 7 .1 1 .6 1 .5 1.1 0.2 -0 .3 2.0 2.6 4.0 6 .2 16—82 11 -82 12-82 1-83 2-8 3 3-83 4-8 3 28 7 .1 2 8 9 .5 2 9 0 .8 . 5-83 4 .2 29 1 .8 4*4 292.9 6-8 3 7-8 3 I N I T I A L MONTH *OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVI SED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING .. 263*5_ ... 1. 0 3-8 2 . ,262.3. 9-82 2- 8 2 . . 257^4 10-82 1-82 - 7-83 257*0 UJ 1-82 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER 9 , 1983 6 .... INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE RATIO 1967-100 160 S E A S O N A L L Y ADJ US TED 1967-100 160 1 + 4- 03L +o. rz 155 SCALE 150.5 A jf ♦U fir Q a t ' r/ 150 + /5. / / 145 -15. 6Z V -15. 9 z \ I r \ l r 16K2Z / [ 1 40 *5.4 150 J 145 // / I 40 y 135 155 135 130 130 / 125 125 * 16. i z j / 120 120 1 15 I 15 1 W 1 10 1 10 t 100 1975 k .. 1976 1977 S► .... 3 ^ i. t t 1979 1980 i . i. 1978 ____ & Î* i1 < iI t 1 1981 1 * t i ; r, ► ... 105 105 % t 1982 100 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST PRELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L i1QNTH 1-82 2-82 20. 5 3-82 A.3 2- 82 3- 82 4 —M2 5-82 6-82 7-6 2 9- 9 2 9-82 10- 82 11-82 19A7 * i nn 12- 82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 4- 83 5-83 6-63 7-ai 142. 9 -9.6 141. 7 A —82 -1.4 - 10. 8 - 1 2 . 0 140. 2 5-82 -3.2 -10.0 - 10 .1 -8.2 6- 82 -3.4 -8.6 -8.2 -6 . 3 -4. 2 7-82 —2. 7 -6.7 -6.0 -3.9 -1.7 0.9 8-82 -2.9 -6.2 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 -1.3 -3.4 9-82 -3.6 -6.6 "6.1 -4.9 -4.0 -4.0 -6.3 10 - 82 139. 2 138. 7 138. 8 138. 4 -9.1 137. 3 -4.7 -7.5 -7.1 -6 . 3 -5.9 -6.3 - 8 . 6 -11 .1 -13.1 11—82 -4.9 -7.4 -7.1 -6.4 -6. 1 -6.4 -8.2 -9.7 -10. 0 -6.8 12- 82 -4.3 -6.4 -6 . 1 -5.3 -4.9 -5.0 -6.1 —6 . 8 -6 . 0 -2.2 2.7 1-83 -2.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.7 -1.9 -1.6 -2.0 -1.7 0.2 5. 1 11. 6 21.4 2-83 -1.7 -3.4 -2.8 -1.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 —0 . 4 1. 4 5. 4 9.8 13. 6 6.3 3-83 -0.4 -1.9 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 1. 3 1. 3 2.0 4.0 7. 8 11. 8 1 5. 0 11. 9 1 7. 8 135. 7 134. 9 135. 2 137. 4 138. 1 140. 0 4-83 I. 1 -0.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 3.4 3.7 4.6 6.7 10. 4 14. 3 17. 3 16. 0 21.2 24.7 5-83 2. 0 0.3 1. 6 2.8 3. 7 4.5 4.9 5.8 7.9 11. 2 14. 6 17. 1 16.1 19. 5 20.4 16.2 6-83 2. 8 1. 8 2.6 3.7 4.7 5. 5 5.9 6.9 8. 8 11. 9 14. 9 17. 1 16. 3 18.9 19.3 16.6 17.0 7-83 4. 0 3. 1 3. Q 5.1 6. 1 7. 0 7.5 8.5 10. 5 13. 5 16. 3 18. 4 17. 9 20.4 21.0 19 . 8 21.7 26.6 8-83 4.3 3. 5 4.3 5.5 6. 4 7. 2 7.8 8.7 10. 5 13. 2 15. 7 17.4 16. 9 18 . 8 19.0 17.6 18.0 18. 5 11. 0 3- 82 4-42 5- 82 6-82 »-82 5-82T 9-82 10- 82 ^ r - 8 2 1 2 -52 1- 83 2-8 3 3-83 4-83 5-83 6-63 7- 83 142. 6 144. 4 146. 3 149. 2 Ÿ 1 5 0 . 5P I NITIAL MONTH ' P R E P A I D 5? FEDERAL SEPTEMBER 1 5 , 1983 7 RESERVE BANK OF ST, LO UIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS INCOME RATIO MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL R A T E S OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY TRILLIONS A DJUS TED OF SCALE DOLLARS 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2. 1 2.0 1 .9 1 .8 1. 7 1 .6 I . 1 .5 1. 1. 4 I . 1.3 I . I . 2 1. 1. 1 1 .0 I . 1975 1976 19 77 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS P E R S O N A L IN C O M E COM POUNDED AN N U AL R A T E S OF CHANGE BI LL I ONS OF IN IT IA L MONTH "MÜNTH 1-82 2- 8 2 3- 8 2 4- 82 5- 82 6- 82 ANNUAL RATES 7- 8 2 8- 82 9- 8 2 10- 82 11- 82 12- 82 1- 83 2-83 3- 8 3 4-83 5-83 2- 82 5. 9 3- 8 2 4.3 2.7 4-82 5. 0 4.5 6.4 5- 8 2 6. 1 6.1 7.9 9.3 6-82 5. 3 5. 1 5.9 5 . 7 __ 2. 1 7- 82 5. 8 5.7 6.5 6.6 5.2 8.4 8- 8 2 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.5 2.9 3.4 -1.4 9- 8 2 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.6 3. 5 3.9 1.8 5. 1 10- 82 5. 3 5. 2 5.6 5.5 4.7 5.4 4.4 7.4 9.8 11- 82 5. 5 5.5 5.8 5.7 5. 1 5.7 5.1 7.4 8.5 7. 2 12- 82 5. 5 5. 5 5. 8 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.2 6.9 7.5 6.4 5.6 1- 83 5. 3 5.3 5.6 5.5 5. 0 5.4 4.9 6.2 6.5 5. 4 4.5 3.5 2- 8 3 4. 8 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.1 5.0 5.0 3. 8 2.7 1. 3 -0.9 3-83 5. 2 5. 1 5.3 5.2 4.8 5. 1 4.7 5.6 5.7 4. 9 4.3 3.9 4.0 9.2 5.6 5.5 5.2 5. 5 5.1 6.0 6.1 5. 5 5.2 5. 1 5.6 9.0 8.8 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.9 7. 7 10 . 8 11.6 14.4 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.4 9. 6 9.7 10 . 1 6.0 6-U3 7-83 2.530. 2 2 » 535. 8 2.549. 0 2. 572.5 2.589.8 2,586.7 2 , 5 97 *4 2.617.8 2,633.1 2,645.0 2,652. 6 2,650.5 2, 670.1 4-83 5. 4 5. 4 5-83 5. 9 5.9 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.9 6-83 5. 9 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.8 7- 8 3 6. 0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.4 9. 1 9.1 9.2 6.7 7.3 8- 83 5. 8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.1 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.7 8. 1 7.8 7.6 5.4 5. 1 2*9 T=82T 2“82 5^2 4-82 5-Ô2 6- 82 7-82 8- 82 9 - 8 2 10- 82 11- 82 12- 82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 4-8 3 5-8 3 6-63 7-83 2,689.0 2,719. 3 2,732. 6 2,748.7 2.755. 2 P P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1983 8 RETAI L SALES RATIO SCALE BILLIONS RATIO OF 1975 DOLLARS 1976 S E A S ON A L L Y 1977 1978 BILLIONS ADJ US TED 197 9 198 0 1981 1982 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1983 SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIO DS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS R E T A I L SALES RA T ES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH I N I T I A L MONTH 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 DOLLARS 4 -8 2 5-82 2-8 2 23.0 3-82 8 .3 -4 .6 4— 82 9 .2 2.9 11.0 5-82 1 5 .5 1 3 .2 23.3 6-8 2 5 .8 1 .9 4 .2 0 .9 -2 5 .6 7-8 2 6.9 3.9 6.2 4 .6 8-82 5.1 2 »3 3.8 9-8 2 5.9 3 .6 5.1 1 0 -8 2 6 .8 4 .9 11-82 8 .3 12-82 7 .5 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-62 1 0 - 0 2 11 -82 1—83 2 -8 3 3-83 7—-ftl A A t iV49 fi7,7Dl 3 6 .9 9ûrA l^ AA^O l -8 .6 12.4 2 .1 -7 .5 3.2 -5 .2 3 .9 -3 .0 6 .0 2.9 11.7 6.3 5 .6 0 .2 8.0 6 .6 13.0 6 .8 6.3 7 .9 3 .7 10.9 10.5 16.3 18.6 23.1 6 .0 7.3 6 .8 3.1 8.9 0 .2 11^9 11.9 10.7 -0 .4 8.2 6.3 -1 .3 -2 .1 A 9 t 4A9 A 9.n A 9 i N tM 7 14.3 90.90 5 9 ?.*9 ? 9 2 .4 5 9 1-83 6.6 5.3 6.3 5 .8 2.5 7.2 6 .4 8.9 2-8 3 4.9 3 .5 4 .3 3.7 0 .5 4.4 3 .3 4 .8 3 .4 0.9 -5 .6 -8 .1 -13 .8 3-8 3 6.6 5.5 6 .3 5 .9 3 .2 7.1 6 .4 8.2 7 .6 6 .3 2 .5 3 .5 6 .5 31 .4 92 12 9 5 91.16 4 4 —83 8.2 7 .2 8.1 7 .9 5 .6 9 .3 9 .0 10.9 1 0 .8 1 0 .2 7 .« 10.0 14.4 31 .7 5 -8 3 10.1 9.3 10.4 10.4 8 .4 1 2 .2 12.1 1 4 .3 14.6 1 4 .6 13.3 1 6 .2 2 1 .3 35 .9 38.2 44 .7 6 -8 3 10.1 9 .3 1 0 .3 10.3 8 .5 11.9 11.9 13.8 14.0 1 3 .9 1 2 .7 15 .1 1 8 .8 28.7 27.9 25 .8 9 .4 7-8 3 9 .3 8 .6 9.5 9.4 7.6 10.7 1 0 .6 12.2 1 2 .2 1 2 .0 10 .7 1 2 .3 1 4 .9 21 .7 19.4 15 .5 3.2 -2 .6 8 -8 3 7 .9 7 .1 7 .8 7 .6 5 .9 8.6 8.4 9 .6 9 .4 8 .9 7 .4 8 .5 10 .1 14.6 11.5 6 .9 -3 .3 -9 .1 -1 5 .2 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7-82 8-82 9 - 8 2 10 -8 2 1 1 -8 2 12 -8 2 1-8 3 2-8 3 3-83 4 -8 3 5-8 3 6 -8 3 7-83 32 *1 9 5.44 9 9 8.43 1 9 9.17 3 9 Ô .9 5 3 P 9 7.60 2 t I N I T I A L MONTH A* WELIHIWAfcV E - ESTIMATED . . . ....... ... ._ ............................................... PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAM. OF S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER 13 . 1983 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTE*' _________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER___________________________________________ ______________ _______ 1977 « IQQ 3- 78 4-78 1- 79 2-79 3- 79 4-79 1 - 80 4-78 9.8 1- 79 10.5 11. 1 2-79 9.8 9.9 8. 6 3- 7 9 9.9 10 . 0 9.4 10. 2 4-79 9.7 9.6 9.1 9.4 8.6 1- 80 9.9 9.9 9.6 10.0 9.9 11. 2 2-80 10.2 10. 3 10. 1 10.5 10.5 11. 5 11 . 9 2-80 3-80 4-80 1- 81 2- 81 3- 81 4- 8 1 1- 82 2-82 3-8 2 4 -62 1- 03 .112»i 115. 2 1 2 0. 5 1 2 3. 0 1 2 6. 3 129. 4 132. 9 3-80 10.1 10. 2 10. 0 10 . 3 10. 3 10 . 9 10 . 7 9.6 4-80 10.1 10. 1 9.9 10.2 10. 2 10 . 6 10 . 4 9.6 9.7 1- 81 10.2 10. 2 10.1 10.3 10. 4 10. 7 10. 6 10. 2 10. 5 11. 3 136. 0 139. 7 2 - 81 9.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.9 10. 2 10 . 0 9.5 9.4 9.3 7.4 3- 81 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.9 10. 1 9.9 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 4 - 81 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 9. 6 9.8 9.6 9.2 9. 1 9.0 8.2 8 .6 7.6 142. 2 145. 5 148. 2 1- 82 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.2 9. 1 8.5 8 .9 8. 6 9.5 2- 82 9. 5 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.2 8.8 8.7 8. 6 8.1 8.2 7. 8 7.8 6.2 3- 82 9. 3 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.0 9.6 8.5 t.4 7.9 8.0 7.6 7.5 6.6 6.9 4- 82 9. 1 9.1 8.9 8.9 8 .8 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.2 7. 1 6.3 6.3 5.7 1- 83 8. 9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.4 5. 1 2- 8 3 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.5 ^5— 7B 4-75 4-7$ 1- 80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1- 81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1- 8 3 1- 7 * ' 2 - 7 9 151. 6 153. 9 156. 5 15 8. 7 160. 7 _ 162. 1 I N I T I A L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNDED ,ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 78 4-78 1- 79 2-79 4-78 0. 8 1- 79 -0.4 -1.6 2-79 -1.1 -2.0 -2.4 3-79 -1.3 -2 .0 -2.2 -2.0 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4- 8 0 1- 81 1977 »1 i nn 2-ei 3- 81 4-01 1- 82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1- 8 3 10 0 . Ö 100^4 99 99.3 4-79 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.3 1-80 -0.9 -1.2 -I. 1 -0.7 0.0 0.8 2-80 -1.2 -1 .5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 99.1 99 . 3 -3.2 9«.5 3-80 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 1.6 4-80 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 —0. 2 0.0 -0.3 1. 2 0.8 1- 81 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 1. 1 1.2 2.7 3.3 98 . 9 99.1 5. 8 1 00. 5 2 - 81 0. 2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1. 0 1.3 1.4 2.6 3.0 4. 1 2.4 3- 81 0. 6 0.5 0.8 1. 1 1. 5 1. 8 2.0 3.1 3.4 4.3 3.6 4.8 4-81 0. 2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1. 1 1.8 1.9 2. 1 0.9 0.2 -4.2 1 - 82 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.5 1. 5 1.6 0.6 0.0 -2.3 -0.4 2- 8 2 0. 0 -0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1. 1 1.0 1. 1 0.2 -0.4 -2.1 -U Q -1.6 3- 8 2 0. 1 0. 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1. 1 1. 1 0.4 0.0 -1.2 -0.1 0.0 1.6 4-82 0.3 0.3 • .4 0.6 0. 8 0.9 0.9 1.4 1. 3 1. 4 0.8 0.5 -0.3 0.7 1*1 2.4 3.2 1- 8 3 0. 4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 I.© 1. 1 1.5 1. 4 1. 5 1.0 0.8 0. 1 1*0 1.4 2*4 2*9 2. 4 2- 8 3 0.7 •.7 e.8 1.0 1. 2 1. 4 1.4 1.9 1. 8 1. 9 1.5 1.4 0.9 1. 1 2*2 3.2 3.7 4.0 5.6 3-7*1 4-78 1- 7 4 2-79 3- 79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-90 1- 81 2- 81 3- 91 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3-82 4-62 1 - 93 101. 1 102. 3 101. 2 101. 1 100. 7 101- 1 101. 9 102. 5 103. 9 I N I T I A L QUARTER 10 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS AUGUST 2 6 . 1983 P R OD UC T I V I T Y , COMPENSATION, RATIO SCALE I97 7 - IO O 1975 SEASONALLY 1976 1977 1978 AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 SO W CEt PEH CEHT A C E * A *E LATEST AHMUAL H A T E S OF CHAKGE FOR P E A IO O S DATA P LO T T E D . 1982 ¥. S . 1983 U fA H T M C M T *f LA B Off OF S T . L O U IS I K O I CA T ED. 2ND fW AHTER P R EP A R ED I Y FED ER A L R E S E R V E IA M « UNI T LABOR COSTS» BUSINESS SECTOR _______________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_____________________ terminal quarter I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 78 4- 78 1- 79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3-80 4- 80 1-81 1977 * 1ÛÛ 2-81 3- 81 4-81 1- 02 2- 82 3-82 4-82 1- 8 3 4- 78 9. 5 1- 79 11.1 12. 8 2-79 11 .0 11 .8 10.9 3- 79 11. 4 12. 0 11. 6 12.4 4-79 11.0 11 .4 10 . 9 1 1.0 9.6 1-80 11.0 11. 3 10.9 10.9 10.1 10. 7 2-80 11. 6 11.9 11. 7 12 . 0 11. 8 13 . 0 15. 3 3-80 11. 1 11. 3 11. 1 11 . 1 10. 8 11. 2 11 . 5 7.8 0 CD 1 4 10. 8 11 .0 10.7 10.7 10. 4 10. 6 10. 5 8.2 8.6 1- 81 10. 3 10.3 10. 0 9.9 9. 5 9.5 9.2 7.2 7.0 5. 4 2- 8 1 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.3 8 .8 8.7 8.3 6.7 6.3 5.2 5.0 3-81 9. 3 9.3 9.0 8.8 8. 3 8. 1 7.7 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.8 4.6 4-81 9. 5 9.5 9.2 9. 1 8.7 8.6 8.3 7.2 7.1 6. 7 7.2 8.3 12. 0 1 - 82 9.6 9.6 9.3 9.2 8.8 8. 8 8.5 7.6 7.5 7. 3 7.8 8.8 11. 0 9.9 2- 8 2 9. 5 9.5 9.2 9. 1 8.8 8.7 8.5 7.7 7.6 7. 5 7.9 8.7 10.1 9.1 8. 2 3-82 9. 2 9,2 8.9 8.7 8.4 8. 3 8. 1 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.7 7.6 6.5 4. 8 4-82 8. 8 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.0 7. 8 7.4 4.8 6.7 6. 5 6.7 6.9 7. 4 4. 3 5.1 3.6 2.3 1-83 8. 5 8.4 8. 1 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.2 6.5 6.4 6. 1 6.2 6.4 6. 7 5.7 *♦7 3.? 2*9 3*4 2- 83 7.* 7. 8 7.5 7.3 7.0 6. 8 4.5 5.# 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5. 4 4.4 3.3 2.1 U2 Q*6 -2.© 3-7S 4^78 1- 79 2-79 3- 7 9 4-79 1- 8 0 2—fO 3- 80 4- 80 1- 81 2- 81 3-81 4 —81 1—82 2- 82 3- 8 2 4-82 1- 83 1 11 . 4 1 17- 8 124- 1 127. 3 13 4. 4 137. 2 13 9. 0 14 0 . 7 14 2. 3 146. 4 149.9 15 2. 9 15 4. 7 15 5. 6 156.9 15 6 . 1 I N I T I A L QUARTER 11 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA>* OF S T , LOUIS AUGUST 26» 1983 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT I N CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______ TERMI NAL OUA k t S r o l L L l Q N S OF DULLARD ANNUAL KAi Li. I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 78 4-78 i —79 2- 79 3-79 4-79 4-78 15.2 1-79 12.4 9.8 2-79 10. 8 8.6 7.5 3- 79 11. 5 10. 2 10. 5 13.6 4-79 10.8 9.7 9.7 10.8 8.1 1-80 10. 9 10. 1 10. 2 11 . 1 9.9 11. 7 0 00 1 <N 9. 4 8.5 8.3 8.4 6.8 6. 2 1- 80 2-80 3- 80 4-80 1- 81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2- 6 2 3-8 2 4-92 1- 83 2 »281.6 c ,335.5 2 »377*9 ¿•4b4. 8 ¿»502.9 ¿»572.9 0.9 2,578.8 9. 5 8.7 8.5 8.7 7.5 7.3 5. 2 9.7 0 00 1 •4- 10.1 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.1 9.3 8.5 12 . 6 1 5.5 1- 81 11.1 10.7 10. 8 11.3 10. 9 11. 5 11. 4 15. 2 18. 0 20. 5 2-81 10. 7 10 . 3 10 . 3 10.7 10 . 3 10. 6 10. 4 12 . 9 14. 0 13. 3 6.6 3- 8 1 10. 9 10. 5 10 . 6 11.0 10.6 11. 0 10. 9 13 . 0 13. 9 13. 3 9.9 13. 3 4-81 10. 3 9.9 10.0 10 . 2 9.8 10. 1 9.8 11 . 4 11. 7 10. 8 7.8 8.4 3.7 1-82 9. 5 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.7 8.7 8.4 9.5 9. 4 8. 3 5.4 5. 0 l.l -1.4 2-82 9. 3 8.9 8.8 8 .9 8.5 8. 5 8. 2 9.1 9. 0 8.0 5.6 5.4 2. 9 2. 5 6.6 3-82 8. 8 8 .4 8.3 8.4 8.0 8. 0 7.6 8.4 8. 2 7. 2 5. 1 4.9 2.9 2.6 4.6 4-82 8. 5 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.8 7. 6 6.6 4.8 4.5 2. 8 2.6 3.9 2.6 2.5 1-83 8. 4 8. 1 7.9 8. 0 7.6 7.6 7.2 7.8 7. 6 6.8 5.2 5.0 3.7 3.7 5.0 4.4 5.3 8. 2 2-83 8. 7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.0 8. 0 7.7 8.3 8. 1 7.4 6. 1 6.0 5. 0 5.2 6.6 6.6 7.9 10 . 7 13. 3 3 - 7 ft 4-78~ r-79 2“ 79 3- 7 9 4-79 1- 80 2- 8 0 3- 80 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3-81 4-81 1- 92 2—>32 3- 82 4-3 2 1- 83 3-80 1 2 » 6 39. 1 2,736.0 2 ,866.6 2,912. 5 3,004.9 3,032.2 3,021.4 3 , *>70 .2 2.7 3, 090 .7 3,109.6 3, 171.5 3,272.0 l n l t l A L QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 OOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL KATES OF CHANGE________________________________________________________ bilLioNi, Of t S t <N o 00 TERMI NAL__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ UL l U K S ' OtfAfcrpr ANNUAL ft A T 3- 78 4-78 1- 79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1- 80 3- 80 4—80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 2-92 3-8Z 4-32 1- 53 1- 82 4-81 4-78 5.5 1-79 3. 3 1. 1 2-79 1. 9 0. 1 -0.9 3-79 2. 6 1. 7 1. 9 4.8 4-79 2. 2 1. 4 1. 5 2.8 0.7 1- 80 2. 2 1.5 1. 6 2.5 1.3 2-80 0. 5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -2.3 -3.7 -9.0 3-80 0. 5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -1.5 -2.2 -4.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6 2.3 3. 8 4.5 6. 4 9.0 i , 468.4 1. 472. 6 1. 469.2 L »4 66 » 6 1.489.3 1. 9 1, 496.4 1,461.4 0.8 I 1.464.2 0 CD 1 * 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 1-81 1. 7 1. 3 1.3 1.6 l.l l.l 0.9 2- 8 1 1. 6 1. 2 1. 2 1. 5 1.0 1. 0 0.9 3.5 4. A 4.7 0.6 3-81 1. 7 1. 4 1. 4 1.7 1. 3 1. 4 1 .3 3.5 4. 2 4.3 2.1 3.6 4-81 1.2 0.9 0.8 1. 0 0.6 0.6 0.4 2.1 2. 3 2.0 -0.3 -0.7 -4.9 1.477.9 1,510.1 1,512.5 1,525.8 1, 5 0 6 . 9 1-8? 0. 7 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.0 -0.1 -0.4 1. 0 1. 0 0.4 -1.6 -2.3 -5.2 -5.5 2-82 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 1. 0 1. 0 0.5 -I. 1 -1.5 -3.2 -2.3 0.9 3-82 0. 6 0. 3 0.3 0.3 -0.0 -0. 1 -0.3 0.7 0. 7 0.3 -1. 1 -1.4 -2.6 -1.9 -0.0 -1.0 4-82 0. 5 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 0. 5 0. 1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.4 -1.7 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 1-63 0. 6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0. 1 0.0 -0. 1 0.7 0. 7 0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.6 -0.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 2- 83 l.l 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.5 1. 3 0.4 0.4 —0 . 0 0.8 2. 1 2.4 3.6 6. 1 9.7 3- 78 4- 78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1- 80 2-80 3- 80 4- 80 1-8 1 2- 81 3- 81 4- 8 1 1- 82 2-82 3- 8 2 4-82 1- 83 1, 48 5 tè... 1,485.7 A,48\>*7 ¿,490.1 1» 5 2 . 1 I N I T I A L QUARTER" RRT p AREO BT T EDE RAÍ T ^ RES^KVt bAN*T~oF S T - ^ L U U i b SEPTEMBER 21, 1983 12 ... 1 .489.3 __ GROSS N AT I ONAL RATI O SCALE 1 97 5 QUARTERLY 197 6 1977 1978 TOTALS PRODUCT AT ANNUAL 1979 1980 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR P E R IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 2ND QUARTER RATI O RATES 1981 U.S. 198 2 1 98 3 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERV E BANK OF ST. 13 SCALE LO UIS GENERAL PRICE RATIO I NDEX* RATIO SCALE 1972-100 225 SCALE 1972-100 225 +■>, i f . 215 . 215 ^ f l 4 . 55 205 195 185 H 0 .2 Z /S 175 / 165 I 55 205 "s? y 195 185 I 75 *8. ? 165 A r 155 1 45 145 +s. n > 135 135 I 25 125 ? 1 15 105 * 1 15 * t 1975 1976 *A S USED IN NATIONAL 1977 1978 t 1979 1980 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1981 S t 1982 105 1983 SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: $ t * t ♦ INDICATED. 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAHK OF ST. LO U IS I M P L I C I T PRICE OfcFLAT OK FÜP GROSS NATI ONAL PRODUCT terminal quarter 4-70 1- 79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1- 80 2- 8 0 4-78 9. 1 1-79 8.8 8.6 2-79 8.7 8.5 8.5 3- 79 8. 6 8.4 8.4 8.3 4-79 0.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.3 1-80 8. 6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.6 2-80 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.3 10. 3 10 . 9 3-80 8. 9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.8 9.9 8.8 3- 8 0 4-80 1-91 O O I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 78 2- 81 3- 81 4- 8 1 1- 82 2- 5 2 3- 32 4-^2 1- 93 15 5. 36 158. 60 161. 65 ioS.12 166.Q> 1 7 1 . V4 176. 46 16L. 24 4-80 9. 2 9.2 9. 2 9.4 9.6 10. 2 10.4 10. 1 11. 3 1- 81 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 10. 2 10. 4 10. 2 10. 9 10.5 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.2 8. 2 165. 13 169. 83 2-81 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 3-81 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.3 8. 6 7.6 9.4 4- 81 9.0 9.0 9.0 9. 1 9.2 9.4 9.4 9. 1 9.2 8. 7 8.1 9.2 9.0 1- 8 2 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.4 7. 8 7. 1 7.5 6.6 2-82 8. 5 8.4 8.4 8 .4 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.4 6.8 7. 1 6. 3 5. 0 5.6 3-82 8. 2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8. 1 7.9 7.6 7.4 6.9 6. 3 6.4 5. 6 4.5 4.6 3.7 4-82 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 1,1 7.5 7.2 7. 0 6. 5 5.9 6.0 5. 3 4.4 4.4- 3.8 3.8 1-83 7. 8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7. 5 7.5 7.4 7. 1 6.9 6. 4 5.9 5.9 5. 3 4.6 4.7 4. 3 4.7 % 3 2-83 7. 5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7. 2 7.0 6.7 6. 5 6. 1 5.6 5.6 5. 0 4.4 4.4 4. 1 4.2 4.4 3.3 3 -7 â 4-78 1-74 2-79 3-79 4-Ï9 1- 80 2-80 3- 80 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3- 82 4-3 2 1- 83 5.9 192. 56 196. 94 201. 22 4.3 203. 30 ¿Q6.1ï> 208. 03 2 1 0. 00 212. 83 214. 55 I N I T I A L QUARTER PR6PARE0 8 Y FEDERAL R E S b K V t SEPTEMBER 2 1 » 1983 14 BANK ÜI- S T . LCUlS PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE______________ TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER IN IT IA L < 3-78 4-78 13*4 1- 7 9 11.9 1- 79 4-78 2- 7 9 3- 7 9 4-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3- 8 0 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2- 82 3-82 4 - 8 2 _ 1- 83 1*411. 3 10. 3 1*446. 3 2-79 10 . 7 9.4 8. 5 3-79 11. 8 11. 2 11. 7 14, 9 4-79 12. 1 11. 8 12. 3 14 . 3 13. 7 1- 80 12. 0 11 . 7 12. 0 13. 3 12. 4 11. 2 2- 8 0 10. 4 9.9 9.8 10. 2 8.6 6.2 3-80 11 . 0 10. 6 10. 7 11. 1 10. 1 9.0 7.9 14. 8 4-80 11. 4 11.1 11. 2 11. 7 11. 0 10. 4 10. 1 14. 7 14. 6 11. 5 11. 6 12. 1 11.6 11. 2 11. 2 14 . 7 14. 7 1,476.0 1,528. 3 1,578.0 1, 620.5 1.5 1,626.4 1,683.4 1,741. 9 1- 81 11. 7 2- 8 1 11 .3 11.1 11. 2 11. 5 11. 0 10. 6 10 . 5 12. 9 12. 2 11. 1 7.5 3- 81 11. 3 11. 1 11. 2 11. 5 11. 1 10. 7 10 . 6 12 . 6 12. 0 11. 2 9.5 11 . 4 4- 8 1 10. 7 10. 5 10. 5 10. 7 10. 3 9.8 9.7 11. 1 10. 4 9.3 7.6 7.6 1- 82 10. 5 10. 3 10. 3 10 . 4 10. 0 9.6 9.4 10. 6 9.9 8.9 7.5 7.6 5. 7 7.5 2-82 10. 3 10. 0 10. 0 10. 2 9.7 9.3 9.1 10. 1 9.5 8.7 7.5 7.5 6.2 7.3 7.2 3- 8 2 10. 1 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.8 9.2 8.5 7. 5 7.5 6.5 7.4 7. 3 7.5 4-82 10 . 0 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.4 9. 1 8. 9 9.6 9. 1 8.4 7. 5 7.5 6.8 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.8 1,802.8 14. 7 1,835.8 1,886.1 1,904.1 3.9 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 1- 83 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.5 9. 1 8. 8 8.6 9.2 8.7 8.0 7. 2 7.2 6.5 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.5 5.2 2-83 10. 0 9.8 9*7 9.8 9. 5 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.2 8. 7 8. 1 8. 1 7.7 8.3 8. 5 8.8 9.3 10. 0 15. 1 3- 7 8 4-75 1- 79 2- 79 3- 7 9 4- 79 1- 80 . 2- 8 0 3- 8 0 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4- 81 1- 62 2-82 3-82 4-82 1- 83 2,073.0 2,147.0 I N I T I A L QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972 DOLLARS ___________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE___________ TERMINAL QUARTER b l L L l u Ni . (J*ÜULLAK^ ANNUAL HATtS I N I T I A L <jUARTER 4- 78 1- 7 9 2-79 3- 79 4-79 1- 8 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-8 1 2- 81 4.7 1-79 2. 8 0.9 2-79 1. 6 0.1 -0.7 3-79 2. 5 1.7 2. 1 5.1 4-79 2. 6 2.1 2. 5 4.2 3.3 1- 8 0 2. 2 1. 7 1. 9 2.7 1. 6 -0.1 2-80 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -1.6 -4.0 -7.7 3-80 1.1 0.6 0.6 0. 9 -0.2 -1.3 -1.9 4.3 4-80 1.5 I.1 1. 2 1. 5 0. 8 0. 1 0.2 4.5 4.6 1- 81 2. 0 1.6 1. 7 2.1 1. 6 1. 3 1. 6 5.0 5. 3 5. 9 2-81 1. 8 1. 5 1 .6 1. 9 1. 5 1.1 1. 4 3.8 3.6 3. 2 0. 5 3-81 2. 0 1. 7 1. 8 2.1 1.7 1. 5 1.7 3.7 3.6 3. 3 2.0 3.5 i 00 3- 78 3- 81 4- 8 1 1- 82 2-82 3- 82 4-32 1- 63 919*2 92 1. 2 919. 5 93 0. 9 93d.6 938.3 919.6 92 7 . 4 940.C 9t>3 .6 9 54 . 7 96 2 . 9 4-81 1. 6 1. 3 1. 3 1.6 1. 2 0.9 1. 1 2.6 2. 3 1. 7 0.3 0.2 -3.0 1-82 1. 6 1.4 1.4 1. 6 1. 3 1. 1 1. 2 2.6 2.3 1. 8 0.8 0.9 -0.3 2. 4 2-82 1. 7 1.5 1.6 1 .8 1. 5 1. 3 1.4 2.6 2. 4 2. 0 1.3 1. 5 0. 8 2.8 3. 1 3-82 1. 7 1 .5 1. 5 1.7 1.4 1. 2 1.4 2.4 2. 2 1. 9 1. 2 1.4 0. 8 2. 1 2.0 0.9 4-82 1.8 1. 6 1.7 1. 8 1.6 1. 4 1.6 2.6 2.4 2. 1 1. 5 1.7 1. 4 2. 5 2.5 2.2 3.6 1-83 1. 8 1.7 1.7 1. 9 1. 7 1. 5 1.7 2.6 2.4 2. 2 1.7 1. 9 1. 6 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.3 2.9 2.2 2. 1 2.3 3.2 3. 1 2.9 2.6 2.9 2. 8 3.8 4. 1 4.3 5.5 6.4 10 . 0 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3 - 8 0 “ 4-fftf 1-81 2 -8 1 3-81 4- 81 2- 82 3-82 4-8 2 1- 8 3 2-83 2. 3 2.1 2.2 2.4 3-7B 4— 78 1- 7 9 2-79 initial 935. 7 96 1. 4 1- 82 9 6 3. 8 9 7 1. 0 979.6 98 6 . 7 1,010.6 ouarter PREPARED BY FEDERAL RES ERVE SEPTEMBER 2 1 » 1983 15 BANK OF ST. L OU I S GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVcS THSNT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE______________ o lL L lO N S U t- ______________________________________________________________ L « U L * L 9 U * R T J R _____________________________________________________________ uivj-LAh^ _ _ ANNUAL 4-78 15. 5 1- 79 10. 7 6.0 2-79 11. 5 9.6 13.3 . - fr 4 1S. 1 9. 5 7.5 8.3 3.4 <♦.5 1.9 0.5 -5.3 -13.3 1-80 4.6 2.5 1. 7 - 2 .0 -4.5 2-80 -0.0 -2.4 -4.0 -7.9 -11.4 -10.5 3-80 -1.9 -4.2 -5.8 -9.2 -12.1 4-80 1.9 0.3 -0.5 -2.6 -3.8 43 1 . <y 41 0. 8 5. 1 422.G -23.8 -11.8 -19.1 -1.2 394. 3 -14.2 379. -3.2 9.0 38. 5 41 1. 7 1- 81 5. 9 4.9 4.8 3.6 3.6 7.4 7.9 21 . 2 44. 1 49.8 2- 81 6.7 5.9 5.9 5.0 5.2 8.7 9.4 19 . 7 33. 8 31. 5 15. 4 3- 81 7. 9 7.2 7.4 6.7 7.1 10. 4 11. 3 20. 1 30. 6 28. 1 18. 5 4-81 6.0 5.2 5.1 4.3 4.4 6.9 7. 1 13.4 19. 9 15. 7 6.1 0. 1 4. 1 7. 5 2. 2 -7.2 -13.6 3. 3 -4. 1 -8.4 -16.6 -17.5 9.4 1. 9 -4.5 -8.0 - 14. 2 - 1 4 . 0 1. 1 - 4. 3 -10.2 -13.9 -19.6 -20 .7 -14.1 45 5 . 5 472. 1 21 . 6 495. 8 1.7 -14.9 476. 2 1-82 2. 0 1.0 0.6 -0.5 -0.8 0.6 2- 82 2.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 1. 5 1. 1 4.7 7. 8 3-8 2 1. 9 1.0 0.7 -0.2 -0.5 0.7 0.3 3.4 5. 9 4-82 -1.0 -2.0 -2.5 -3.6 -4.1 -3.3 -4.0 -1.7 -0.2 1-83 0. 5 -0.3 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 -0.9 -1.4 0.9 2. 5 -0.8 -5.8 -8.5 -12.7 -12.3 -4.4 2-8 3 2.8 2.1 1.9 1.2 1. 1 2. 2 2.0 4.5 6.4 3.6 -0.5 -2.4 -5.4 -3.7 5. 1 3-79 4-?9 1- 86 2 -6 0 ' 3 - 8 0 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 1- T O 3- 78 INlflAL 7.2 1-79 3.0 1- 7 9 2-79 42 2. 9 4 3 2. 5 -6. 5 42i>.3 - 2 3 . 9 —3q . 0 -8.7 4. 1 2-82 377. 4 404. 1 -9,7 31.4 7.8 42. 2 53.9 3-82 4- 82 1- 8 3 450. 1 quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT I N 1972 OOLLARS ___________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________________________________________ ____________ MI LLI ONS Of _______________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________PU l LAKS ANNUAL RATtS 3-79 4-79 3- 8 0 4-80 1- 81 2-80 3- 81 2- 81 4-81 1- 82 2-82 4 —82 L-tt3 1 o 4-78 -27.2 -37.8 CD _________ 4-78 242, 2 -1.2 24Wi , 2-79 1.9 -0.7 -0.3 3-79 -0.3 -2.7 -3.5 -6.6 4-79 -4.3 -7.0 -8.8 -12.8 -18.6 -3.9 -6.0 -7.1 -9.3 -10.6 -16.1 24U3 2 3J7.2 ! ¿ 23 , 3 0 CD 1 -1.8 2-80 -8.8 -11.3 -13.2 3-80 -8.9 -11.0 -12.6 -14.8 4-80 -5.4 -6.9 -7.7 -8.8 1- 8 1 -2.6 -3.7 -4.0 -4.5 2-81 -1.3 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 -1.9 1. 2 3-81 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.2 2.8 -19.1 ¿ 24 . 3 -19.3 -33.7 202. 4 -16.8 -16.2 -22.5 -9.5 -9.3 -6.8 -8.4 7.7 28. 1 -4.1 -0.9 -0.7 13. 6 27. 3 26.5 1. 9 13. 4 22 . 2 I 9.4 12. 8 3.5 13. 2 19. 7 17. 0 12. 6 5.6 1V7. 4 . . 229. 5 12. 4 23 6. 3 -2.2 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -3.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.3 9.7 -0.6 -6.7 -22.5 1-82 -4.9 -5 .8 -6.1 -6 . 6 -6.7 -5.2 —5 . 6 -0.8 0.8 - 3 . 9 -10.3 -16.9 -28.6 -34.2 2-82 -4.4 -5.1 -5.4 -5.8 -5.8 -4.4 -A .7 -0.2 1. 2 -2.7 -7.7 -12.2 -19.2 -17.5 3.4 3-82 -4.4 -5.2 -5.5 -5.8 -5.8 -4.5 -4.8 -0.9 0. 3 -3.2 -7 .4 -11.0 -16.0 - 1 3 . S -1.3 1 % 1 ? ; ^ -6.6 -7.4 -7.8 -8.3 -8.4 -7.5 -8.0 -4.9 -4.4 -7 .8 -11 .9 -15.5 1- 83 -4.9 -5.6 -5.8 -6.2 —6 . 1 -5.1 -5.4 -2.3 -1.5 -4.4 -7.6 2-83 -2.6 -3. 1 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 -2.0 -2.0 1. 3 2. 3 0. 0 -2.5 -4.3 1- 79“ 2-79 3-7^ 4-T9 1- 80 2- 8 0 3- 00 4- 8 0 1-8 1 2- 81 "3-76 ~ 4 - ? F <AV. O. 22 2. 7 » CD K A U 1 . 42B. 3 3-79 3-78 . 4G9. 1 4-79 TERMI NAL ------ QUARTER ■■-1 QJ 221. 7 199. 7 20 1. 4 19 8. 4 -5.8 1 78. 4 - 1 4 . 0 - 2 1 . 5 - 3 4 . fc - 20.1 -19.5 -10.2 -13.5 -11.6 -4.9 -7.5 -8.3 -6.5 -3.5 4.2 4.4 8.0 38.8 4V .a 3- 81 4- 81 1- 92 2-82 3- 82 4-8 2 1- 83 2b. 7 ¿10.2 I N I T I A L QUARtER PREWARtD BY F h D ^ R^ l R t b~ \Vt SEPTEMbfrP 21, 1983 16 c»A\A Ut S 1 . LLUi v _ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOOOS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________ biLLlONi TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L (QUARTER 0F DOLLARS ANNUAL RAI LS 3— 7 8 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-61 4-81 1-82 2-8 2 3-82 4 —8 2_ 1- 83 00 fI * 11.2 451.1 1-79 8.2 5.2 2-79 7.7 6.0 6.8 3-79 8.9 8.2 9.7 12.6 4S6.9 464 - 5 470.5 10.3 12.1 14.8 16.9 11.6 11.6 13.3 15.5 17.0 17.1 2-80 12.0 12.1 13.5 15.3 16.2 15.8 14.6 m 1 10.8 10.7 11.7 12.7 12.7 11.3 8.5 4-00 11.3 11.3 12.2 13.1 13.2 12.3 10.8 9.0 15.6 1-81 11.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.2 12.5 11.3 10.3 14.3 13.0 2-81 10.9 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.0 11.2 10.1 9.0 11.1 9.0 5.1 3-81 11.0 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.0 11.3 10.4 9.6 11.4 10.0 8.5 4-81 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.4 11.9 11.2 10.6 12.2 11.4 10.9 13.9 15.9 1-82 10.8 10.8 11.3 11.7 11.6 11.0 10.3 9.7 10.9 10.0 9.3 10.7 10.1 4.6 2-82 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.0 9.2 8.6 9.5 a .5 7.6 8 .2 7.0 2.8 3-82 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.4 10. 3 9. 5 9.0 9.8 9. 2 7. 1 8.4 16. 2 <\l 00 10.8 10.8 11.2 11. 5 11. 4 11.0 10. 4 10.0 10. 8 10. 3 9.9 10. 7 10. 4 9. 1 10. 7 15 . 8 15. 5 1-83 10.1 10 . 0 10. 3 10.6 10. 4 10. 0 9.4 8. <? 9.6 8. 9 8.4 8 .9 8. 4 7.0 7.6 9. 8 6.7 -1.3 2-83 9.7 9.7 9.0 10. 1 10. 0 9.5 8.9 8.5 9.0 8.A 7.9 8.2 7.7 6.4 6.3 8. 2 5.7 It I 3.6 3-78 4-7é L- 79 ¿ — 79 3- 79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3- 8 0 4- 80 1-81 2- 81 3-81 4- 8 1 1-82 3- 82 4-82 1-83 1 V* 10.5 1-60 0 « 4-79 497.6 517.6 535.5 2,7 539.1 55V.Q 57o.3 583- 5 600 » 3 12.0 622.8 629.8 l.l 6 31.6 2 - 62 655.7 67V.7 07 7 . 4 683.4 I N I T I A L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________ TERMINAL QUARTER O l L L i UNS UF OuL LAR*> INITIAL < QUARTER 3- 78 4-78 1- 79 2-79 3-79 4-79 actual 1- 80 4-78 1. 3 1-79 -0.3 -1.9 2-79 0.0 -0.6 0.6 3- 79 0.7 0.5 1. 7 2.9 4-79 1. 3 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.5 1-80 1. 7 1. 8 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 2- 80 2. 0 2.2 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 3-80 1.3 1. 3 1. 8 2. 1 1. 9 1. 3 0.0 2- 8 0 3- 8 0 4- 80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3-8 2 4-92 rates 1- 6 3 ¿77.7 ¿76.4 ¿ 76. 8 278. 8 <-t>L.2 28 4. 0 28 6. 8 -3.8 28 4. 0 1. 4 l.l 0.5 -0.7 -3.0 -2.1 1. 7 1.8 1.6 1. 2 0.6 —0 . 6 1. 1 4. 5 2-81 1. 0 0.9 1. 2 1.3 1. 1 0.7 0.0 -0.9 0.0 l.l -2.1 3-81 1. 2 1. 2 1.5 1. 6 1. 4 1. 1 0.7 0.0 1. 0 2. 0 0.8 3. 9 4-81 1. 4 1. 4 1. 7 1. 8 1. 7 1. 5 1. 1 0.6 1. 6 2. 5 1. 9 3.9 4.0 1- 8 2 1. 3 1 .3 1. 5 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 1. 3 1. 9 1. 3 2.5 1. 8 0 1 1.3 1. 3 OD 0.9 1. 3 * 0.9 1- 81 28 2. 5 285.6 <■ 284. 1 2 8 6. 8 ¿89.6 -0. 3 289.4 2- 82 0.9 0.8 1. 0 1. 1 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0. 8 0.1 0.6 -0.5 -2.6 -4.9 3- 82 1. 4 1. 4 1. 6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 1. 4 1.9 1. 5 2. 3 1. 9 1.2 1. 9 9.3 4-82 1. 9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2. 1 2.0 1. 8 2.4 3. 0 2.8 3. 6 3. 6 3.5 4.8 10. 0 1- 83 1. 3 1. 3 1.5 1. 5 1. 4 1.3 1. 0 0.8 1 .2 1.6 1. 3 1 .8 1. 4 0.9 1 .2 3.3 0.5 -8 . b 2-83 1. 1 1. 1 1. 3 1. 4 1. 3 1. 1 0.9 0.6 1. 0 1.3 1. 0 1. 4 1.1 0.6 0.7 2 .2 -0.0 -5.0 . l.l 3-78 4 -7 a 1- 79 2-79 3-79 4-79 2-W 5-dó 4- 8 0 i-ei 3- 81 4-81 1- 82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1- 8 3 2-81 285.8 29 2. 2 10. 7 2V 9 . 7 29 2. 9 292. 1 INITIAL q u a r t e r PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ES ERVE S EPT EMBER 2 1 , 1983 17 8ANK OF ST . LUUI S __ . DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOHE IN CURRENT OOLLAKS _______COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE_________ TERMI NAL ö l L L i u N i UF UL'LLAKS k N.NUm L I N I T I A L QUARTER quarter 3- 7 9 13.0 1-79 12. 6 12. 1 2-79 11.5 10 . 8 3-79 11.9 11.5 11. 2 13.0 4-79 11.5 11. 2 10 . 8 11.5 10. 1 4-79 2-80 3- 8 0 0 1 2-79 1- 7 9 CD 4- 78 o 00 3 - 78 4-78 1-91 2- 81 I r K 2 —3 2 3-8 2 4 -32 1-8:5 à.547.7 1. ^ K7 - S 9.5 1 t£)24»L i 11. 9 11.7 11 . 6 12.3 12 . 0 13 . 9 10. 8 10.4 10. 1 10.2 9.3 8.9 4.1 3-80 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.8 10. 3 10. 3 8.6 13. 2 4-80 11. 4 11.2 1I . 1 11.3 11. 0 11. 3 10. 4 13. 6 14. 1 1-81 11. 6 11 . 4 11.3 11.6 11 . 4 11.6 11. 1 13. 5 13. 6 13. 1 11 . 2 11. 1 11. 3 11.0 11. 2 10. 6 12. 3 12. 0 11. 0 9.0 1.771.7 1.709.8 i .*46.G i »VOÖ .0 1.967.6 00 » * 1-80 2-80 11*3 3-81 11. 8 11 . 7 11.7 li.9 11. 8 12. 0 11 . 7 13. 3 13. 3 13. 1 13. 0 17. 3 4-81 11. 3 11 . 2 I 1. 1 11.3 11. 1 11. 2 10. 8 12.0 11. 7 11. 1 10. 5 11 .3 5.6 1-82 10. 6 10.4 10. 3 10.3 10. 1 10. 1 9.6 10 . 4 9.9 9. 1 8. 1 7.9 3. 5 1. 4 2-82 10. 3 10. 1 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.6 7.7 7.4 4.3 3.7 6.0 2 ,010.4 ¿•092. 0 2 » 1t O .5 ¿ *127. 9 ¿«159.0 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.4 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.0 8. 2 7.4 7.1 4.8 4.5 6.1 6.2 9.8 9.6 9. 5 9.5 9.2 9. 1 8.7 9.2 8.7 8. 1 7.4 7.1 5. 2 5. 1 6.3 6. 5 6,Ç 1-83 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.1 6.8 5. 2 5. 1 6.0 6.0 6.0 5. 1 2-63 9.5 9.3 9.1 9. 1 8.8 8. 8 8.4 8.7 8. 3 7. 8 7.2 7.0 5.6 5. 6 6.5 6.6 6.7 to.7 8.2 3-78 4-78 1-79 4-?<r Ï —815 2-80 3- 80 4-80 1-81 2- 81 3- 81 4- 3 1 1- 82 2- 8 2 3- 8 2 4-3 2 1-8 3 1 1 3-82 4-82 3-79 . o 7‘*. j l .7 2.191,5 2.227.Ö 2.3VÌ.0 I N I T I A L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS COHPOUNOH) ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE TERMINAL TRW K TO t 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 4 -7 8 4.3 1-7 9 3 .4 2.5 2-7 9 2.4 1.4 0*2 3-7 9 2-7 9 3-7 9 4-7 9 1-80 2-80 I N I T I A L QUARTER ANNUAL 3 -8 0 4-80 1-81 B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS PLATES 2- 8 1 3-81 4-8 1 1-82 2-8 2 3-0 2 4-8 2 1-83 1.004.8 ito u .i 1.0 1 1 .7 2.6 2 .0 1.7 3 .2 4 -7 9 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 0.1 1-8 0 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.2 2-8 0 1.0 0 .5 0 .1 0 .0 -1 .0 -1 .6 -5 .3 3-8 0 1. 2 0 .8 0 .5 0.6 -0 .1 -0 .1 -1 .3 2.9 4-8 0 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 0 .8 0.9 0 .5 3 .5 4.1 1 -8 1 1.8 1 .6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 3.8 4 .3 4.4 2-81 1 .8 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 3.3 3.5 3.1 1.9 3-81 2.4 2 .2 2.2 2 .4 2.3 2 .7 2.7 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.3 8 .9 4-8 1 2.1 I .9 1.9 2 .0 1.9 2.1 2.1 3 .4 3.5 3 .4 3.0 3 .6 -1 .4 1-62 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1 .4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.2 -2 .4 2-8 2 1.7 1 .5 1.5 1 .6 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 -1 .0 -0 .8 1.9 3-8 2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1 .4 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 -0 .8 —0 . 6 0.8 -0 .3 4 -8 2 1 .7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1 .3 -0 .1 0.2 1.4 1.1 2.6 1-83 1.7 1 .6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.7 1.8 1.7 2 .8 2.9 1.073.9 2-8 3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 2. 2 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.8 1.2 2.1 2 .2 3 .0 3.2 ItO W .l 3-7 * 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1-60 2-80 3-60 4-8 0 1-81 2- 8 1 3-8 1 4-81 1—82 2-82 3-82 4-6 2 1 .0 2 0 . 1 2.3 1.0 25.8 1.0 12.0 1.019.2 1.0 2 9 .6 JU<HOr7 1.045.6 1.068.1 1.064.3 -3 .4 1.055.1 1.0 60.2 1.059.3 1(066.1 1-83 I N I T I A L QUARtER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO UIS SEPTEMBER 2 6 » 1983 18 CORPORATE P R OF I T S A F T E R T AXE S * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES TERMINAL QUARTER of change Ô l L L l U N i OF DÙLLARi ANNUAL K A i t S I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 78 4-78 1- 79 4 —78 29. 5 1-79 15. 6 3. 3 2-79 13. 2 5.8 8.4 3-79 13.1 8. 2 10 . 7 2- 79 3-79 4- 79 1- 8 0 2- 80 3- 80 4- 80 1-81 2- 81 3-81 4-81 1- 92 2- 82 3-82 4-82 1- 83 159. 9 161. 2 16^. 5 13. 0 169. 6 4-79 8. 0 3.2 3.2 0.6 -10.4 1-80 7. 1 3. 1 3. 1 1.4 2-80 -4.1 -8.7 3-80 - 1 .0 -4.7 -6.0 -8.7 4-80 -1.0 -4.2 -5.2 -7 . 4 -11.0 -11.1 1- 81 0. 6 -2.2 -2.8 -4.3 2-81 -2.8 -5.6 -6.5 -8.2 3- 8 1 -1.3 -3.7 -4.4 -5.7 -7.9 -7.5 4-81 -1.7 -3.9 -4.6 -5.8 -7.7 -7.3 1-82 -7.8 -10.2 165. 0 -4.0 2.9 -11.0 -15.3 -23.0 -28.6 166. 2 -50.5 -13.4 -14.4 -21.9 -7.0 10.7 140. 9 -0.5 140. 7 -8.4 12 . 4 7.3 -10.9 -11.0 -13.5 -0.6 -7.5 -10.7 -31.2 -9.1 2.6 -2.0 -2 .4 -10.5 -8.7 l.l -2.8 -11.2 -12.8 -15.0 -6.3 -15.3 139. 4 ... 23. 3 -15.5 -17.6 -11.4 -16.1 15.9 -3.4 -9.1 139, 6 16. 5 4.5 - 18 .9 - 25.8 - 23 .9 -6.3 -8.4 -9.3 -10.6 -12.5 -12 .7 -14.3 - 8 . 2 - 1 2 . 0 - 13. 8 -6.1 -8.1 -8.9 -10. 1 -11.8 -11.9 - 7 . 7 -1 0 .9 -12.3 -16.3 4-82 -6.3 -8.2 -8.9 -10. 1 -11.6 -11.7 -12.9 - 7 . 9 -10 .8 -12.0 -15 .4 -12.5 1-83 -7.0 -8.8 -9.5 -10.6 -12.1 - 8 . 8 -11.5 -12 .7 -15.7 <M -3.4 -5.0 -5.4 -6.2 3- 78 4-78 1-79 2-7v 1 CD 2-82 3-82 -13.2 -18.8 -6.2 141. 7 -38.5 -5 9 .7 112. 9 -23.8 -31.4 - 1 3 . 0 - 19. 1 -23.0 6.5 -3.0 -17.3 - 19 .9 0.7 -6. 5 -15.3 -12.2 -13.3 -7.4 -7.2 -7.9 -3.0 -5.1 -5.5 -7.7 -4.2 3-79 4-79 1- 80 2-80 3- 8 0 4- 80 1-81 2- 81 I nitial 144. 0 - 13 .2 - 17 .3 16. 9 -19.4 -4.2 -6.8 -6.9 10 . 0 3-81 4-81 1- 8 2 117. 4 1 ló.i> - 9.9 113 . -1 0 .3 "13,7 -17,4 8.3 12. 4 2i>.o 91.0 2- 8 2 3- 8 2 4- 82 1- 83 127. 2 quarter * NATI ONAL INCOME BASIS PREPARED 6 Y FEDERAL KESiRVfc bANK LF S T . SEPTEMBER 21, 1983 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-75: Statistical Tables (Stock number M 3-010-00101-1, price $10.00). Estimates for 1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for 1980-82 appear in the July 1983 Survey of Current business. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 í> 106. 2 LLUI S __ INVENTORIES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1970 1971 * RAT I OS 1969 BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y 1972 SHADED AREAS LATEST DATA REPRESENT PLOTTED: 1973 PERIODS JULY 1974 ADJUSTED OF 1975 1976 1977 1978 DATA. BUSINESS 1979 SOURCE: 1980 1981 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1982 OF 1983 C OMME R C E RECESSIONS. PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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