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nnnonnL Economic
PREPARED

M O N TH E N D IN G :

BY

August 31, 1974
B

’

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

trcuds
OF

ST. LOUIS

RELEASED:

September 25 , 1974
^

Total production in the economy decreased at a 4.4
percent annual rate from the fourth quarter of 1973 to the
second quarter of this year. As a result, the rate of output
is currently below the long-term trend which had been estab­
lished over the 1947-71 period. The chart on page 20 shows
the pattern of output growth relative to its long-term trend.
This trend line approximates the maximum sustainable rate of
output that can be achieved in the economy. During long periods,
such as 1955-57, 1965-69 and 1972-73, when the rate of output
was maintained above this trend, accelerating inflation resulted.
In other periods during the last twenty-five years, the rate of
output was below the trend, indicating that the economy had some
degree of unused capacity and was operating at less than potential.
Contrary to most of the period when output variations
relative to this trend reflected the effects of changes in aggre­
gate demand, the recent decrease was largely due to factors
directly affecting the aggregate supply of goods and services
in the economy. A major factor was the unexpected oil embargo
late last year and subsequent price increases. The effect of
the changed oil situation and related events such as the truckers'
strike has been magnified by other special factors such as crop
failures here and abroad, the devaluation of the dollar, new
government regulations such as expansion of safety and environ­
mental laws, and the lingering distortions of price controls.
In addition to the decrease in output, these special
factors contributed to a sharp one-time increase in the general
level of prices in the economy. Occurring as they did, just as
prices were adjusting upward to the removal of price controls,
the oil situation and the other developments served to increase
greatly the rate of price increase reported so far this year.
This is a temporary effect, however, as the more important
consequence is the decrease in productive capacity that has
resulted.
With aggregate demand continuing to grow rapidly
under the stimulus of past monetary and fiscal actions, this
decrease in productive capacity has greatly increased infla­
tionary pressures in the economy, at least over the near term.




TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E
T E R M IN A L

IN IT IA L

MONTH

w

M ONTH

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

2-73

« .7
6. 1

4.6

4.9

3.5

1.2

5.6

4.7

3.6

4.8

7-73

4.1

3.0

3. 7

4 .9

8-73

4.0

3.1

2.1

2.4

2.7

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

m i m

.......

7-74

8.4

4 .9

1-74

1.4

6-73

9-73 10 - 7 3 11-73 12-73

1.0

5-73

8-73

8.3

4-73

7-73

9 .2

3-73

6-73

8 3 .2 3 0
8 3 .7 8 2
8 3 .8 5 4
83*950
8 4 .9 1 8

1.5
-0.0

8 4 .6 2 1

-1.5

8 4 .5 1 3

9-73

4 *6

4.0

3.3

3. 7

4.3

2.9

3.7

10-73

4 .9

4.4

3.9

4.3

4.9

4.1

4 .9

11-73

4 .4

3.9

3.4

3.7

4.1

3.2

3.7

5.5

3.7

0 . 0 ^

12-7 J

4 .0

3.5

3.0

3.3

3.5

2.7

3.0

4.2

2 .5

0.1

0.3

1-74

¿.9

3.4

2.9

3.1

3. 3

2.6

2. 8

3.7

2 .4

0.8

1.1

2.0

9. 2
8.3

8 5 ,1 3 3

7.5

8 5 .6 4 9
8 5 ,6 4 9
8 5 .6 6 9
8 5 ,8 1 1

2-74

3 .6

3*1

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.3

2.4

3.1

1.9

0.5

0.7

Û. 9

-0.1

3-74

3.4

2.9

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.1

2.2

2.8

1.7

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.8

4-74

Î.0

2.6

2.2

2.3

2.4

1.8

1.8

2.2

1.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-1.2

5-74

3 .0

2.6

2.2

2.3

2.4

1.9

1.9

2.3

1 .5

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.8

OOSL

8 5 ,8 0 3

85.863
85.775
2.8

8 5 .9 7 1

6-74

3.0

2.6

2.3

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

2*4

1.6

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.0

1 .3

1.4

2.8

2.7^Sw

7-74

3 .0

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.0

2.0

2.3

1.7

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.4

1. 6

2.5

2.4

2.1

8-74

2.7

2.4

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.7

2.0

1.4

0. 8

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.4

1.0

0.2

-1.7

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4-73

5-73

6-73

8-73

9 -7 3

11 - 7 3

1 2 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3-74

4 -7 4

5-74

6-74

7 -7 4

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

i - n

7 -7 3

J

0 .8

1 0 -7 3

PAYR O LL
C O M P O U N D S !)
T E R M IN A L
month

IN IT IA L

1

8 6 .1 6 5
8 6 .3 1 2
1
1

EM PLO YM EN T

ANNUAL

RATES

OF

CHANGE

THOUSANDS

MONTH

armmi

' ■

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

2-73

5.5
4.7

3 .2

4.4

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

6-73

4.2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .4

3 .3

f-73

3.3

2 .5

2 .3

2 .0

1.3

-0 .8

8-73

3.5

2 .8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .3

1.8

1-74

3.1

5-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

3 .2

4-73

8-73

7.7

3-73

7-73

8 6 .1 8 7

........

74,715
74.914
7 5 .1 0 5

75 » 321
75,5*6
75.478
4 .4

73.747

9-73

3.5

2 .9

2. ft

2 .8

2 .6

2 .3

3.9

3 .4

10-73

3.8

3 .3

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

4 .8

5.0

6 .5

11-73

3.9

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

4 .8

5 .0

5.8

N
5.1

12-73

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .7

3 .5

3 .5

2.1

-0 .8

75.961
76.363
7

76,679
76,626

1-74

3.1

2 .6

2 .6

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .8

2 .5

2.2

0 .9

-1.2

- 1 .6

2-74

3.2

2 .8

2.8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

3.1

2 .8

2 .7

1.8

0.7

1.5

4 .6

3-74

2.9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .6

2 .4

2.2

1.4

0.5

0 .9

2 .2

76,526

OOL

76,813

-0.1

76,804

4-74

2.9

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .3

2 .6

2 .4

2 .2

1.5

0.8

1.2

2 .2

1.0

2 .2

5-74

2.9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

2 .6

2 .5

2.3

1.7

1.2

1.6

2 .4

1.7

2 .6

6-74

2.7

2 .4

2 .3

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

2.3

2 .1

2 .0

1.5

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.1

1« 6

1.3

-0 .5

1.9

2.1

1.3

0 .8

l. l

1.5

0 .9

1.2

0 .8

-0 .3

- 0 .0

I TT!

0 .9

l. l

1.5

1.0

1.2

0.9

0 .2

0 .6

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

2 .5

2 .2

2 .2

2.1

2 .0

2 .0

1.8

8-74

2 .5

2 .2

2.1

2 .1

2 .0

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.7

I-T3

¿-7 3

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

76.941
3 .1

7 7»136
77j 1 0 1 _____
7 7 .100P
1.2 ^

7 7 ,177P

7-74

P- A R Ê L I M Ï n a Ry




P R É P A R É Ô I V FiBIÏÏAL R E S E R V E
S E P T E M B E R 6* 1 9 7 4

2

BANK O F

ST. L O U Ì S

EMPLOYMENT
RA T I O

MILLiONS




RAT iO S C A L E

SCALE
OF

1966

P E R S ONS

1967

SEASONALLY

1968

1969

MILLIONS

ADJUSTED

1970

1971

1972
SOURCEi

PERCENTAGES

ARE

LATEST

PLOTTEDi

DATA

ANNUAL

RATES

AUGUST

OF

CHANCE

FOR

PERIODS

OF

1973

P F R S ONS

1974

U.S.DEPARTMENT

OF

LABOR

ST.

LOUIS

INDICATED.

PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

BY FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

UNEMPLOYMENT R A T E S *

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972
SOURCEt

«PERCENT
LATEST

OF

CIVILIAN

LABOR

DATA

PLOTTED«

FORCE

U.S.

1973
DEPARTMENT

1974
OF

LABOR

ST.

LO UIS

IN G R O U P

AUGUST
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L

3

R E S E R V E BANK Oh

CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X ,'TETSONALLY AOJUSTEÛT
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL_______________ ;___________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________ ________ _______________ 1967 « 100
MONTH
1-73 2-73
5-73 6-73
3-73
4-73
7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 5-74 6-74 7-74
2-73

8.1

3-73

9 .4

10.8

4-73

8 .9

9 .4

7.9

5-73

8 .5

3 .6

7.5

7 .0

6-73

8 .3

8 .3

7.5

7.3

428.77
129.88
130.71
131.45
7.6

132.25

7-73

7.2

7.0

6. 1

5 .5

4 .7

2 .0

8-73

9 .6

9 .8

9 .6

10.1

11.1

12.9

24.9

9-73

9 .0

9.1

8 .6

9 .0

9.5

10.2

14.5

132.47
134.95
5 .0

135.50

10-73

9.1

9 .3

9 .0

9.2

9 .7

10.2

13.1

7.6

10.2

11-73

9 .2

9 .3

9. i

9 .3

9.7

10.1

12.2

8 .3

10.0

9 .8

12-73

9 .0

9 .1

8.9

9 .1

9 .4

9 .7

11.3

8.1

9 .2

8 .6

7.5

1-74

9 .4

9 .5

9.4

9 .6

9 .9

10.2

11.6

9 .2

10.2

10.2

10.5

13.5

2-74

9 .9

10.0

10.0

10.2

10.5

10.9

12.2

10.2

11.3

11.6

12.2

14.6

15.7

3-74

10.1

10.3

10.2

10.5

1C.8

11.2

12.4

10.7

11.7

12.0

12.5

14.2

14.6

4-74

9 .9

10.1

10.0

10.2

10.5

10.8

11.8

10.2

11.0

11.1

11.4

12.4

12.1

10.3

7.1

5-74

10.1

10.3

10.2

10.4

ÌC .7

11.0

12.0

10.6

11.3

11.5

11.8

12.6

12.4

11.4

10.3

13.5

6-74

10.3

10.4

10. 4

10.6

10.8

11.1

12.0

10.8

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.6

12.4

11.6

10.9

12.8

12.2

7-74

10.2

10.3

10.3

10.5

1C. 7

1 1 .J

11.8

10.6

11.2

11.3

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.1

10.5

11.7

10.8

9 .5

8-74

10.6

10.7

10.7

10.9

11.2

11.4

12.2

11.2

11.8

11.9

12.2

12.8

12.6

*2 .1

11.9

13.1

13.0

13.3

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

S - Ï4

6-74

136.60

IN IT IA L

137.67
138.50
139.97
141.68
13.6

143.19
144.01
145.54
146.94
148.05
17.4

150.04

MONTH

PREP4RE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF T f . LÖÜtS '
SEPTEMBER 20, 1974
WHOLESALE PR IC E S - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
rnHDmiMnFn annuai r a t p s o f C H A N G E
IN1TIA1

14.1
13.4

13.1

5-7*

A-73

7-73

a - 73

2-74

3-74

4-74

6-74

7-74

14.3

4-73

4— 7*

1-74

v
i*.a \

3—
73

*- 7 *

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

4
1

r

9-7*

2-73

1967 * 100

MONTH
it

T F B M f NAI
MONTH

121.23
...
123.75

12.0

5-7*

13-1

12.8

12.1

12.2

A-7*

12-*

1 1 -9

11.1

10.7

9 .2

7-7*

10-*

9.fc

8.5

7 .4

5 .0

1.1

U 4 . 9 4 ..... 125*86
125.97

8-7*

9-9

9 .2

8.3

7 .3

5 .8

4 .1

7.3

9-73

9 .9

9 .3

8.5

7 .9

6 .8

t .O

8.6

9 .9

10-73

9 .9

9 .4

a .a

8 .2

7.5

7 .0

9.1

10,. 0

^ 2 0 .7 %
10.1

11-7*

io-a

10.5

10.0

9 .8

9.4

9 .4

11.6

13.1

14.7

12-7*

11.5

11.*

1 1-0

10.8

10.7

10.9

13.0

14.4

16.0

19.1

18.6

1-74

12.7

12.7

12.5

12.5

12.6

13.1

13..2

16.9

18.7

21.7

22 .8

2 7 .2 ^

2-74

13.9

13.9

13.9

14. 1

14.3

1 5 .C

17.1

18.8

20 .7

23.5

24.8

28.1

U 6 f 7 1 _____
- U tliJl- ..
128.74
...... 110 t M ....

19.5

.

132*54 .. . -

138.12
41.3 ^ ^ .

142.16

3 9 .9

146.07

3-74

15.7

15.8

16.0

16.3

16.8

17.6

19.9

21.8

2 3 .9

26.9

28 .8

3 2 .3

3 5 .0

4-74

17.1

17-3

17-6

18-0

18.6

19-6

2 1 .a

2 3 .8

2 5 .9

2Ä.7

30.7

3 3 .9

3 6 .2

5—
74

lfi.3

18. h

18-9

19 .5

2 0.1

21.1

23 .4

25.3

2 7 .4

30.0

31.9

34 .7

36.7

39.3

3 8 .3

38.2

6-74

19.0

19 . 3

19.7

20.2

20.9

21.9

25 .8

2 7 .7

30.1

31.7

3 4 .0

35.4

37.1

35.7

34.3

30.5

7-74

20-0

20-4

20.8

21 ^4

22-1

23.1

25.1

26 .9

2 8.7

31.0

32.5

34.6

35 .9

37 .3

3 6 .4

35.7

34.4

38.4

0—
74

20.7

21 - 1

21-5

22-2

22.9

23.9

25.9

2 7 .6

29.3

31.4

32.8

34 .7

3 5 .8

36.9

36.1

35.5

34.6

36,6

3 4 .9 > k

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74




24.0

3 8 .5 ^

...1 5 Q a -Q6__
..1 5 3 , 4 3
157.64
1 6 1 , 6 2 ....... .

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS

4




R A T IO

P R IC E S

SC A LE

1966

1967

1962

1969

J970

RATIO

1971

1972

1973

SCALE

197-4

P R EN 6 S A E A N A R T S 4F C A C F«l FEIJO
E C TA £ R N U L A E
HNE
DS IN IC TED
D A .
LA
TEST D
AlA PLO
TTED A G S
> U UT
P E A E » FE E A R S R E B N O ST. UtUIS
RP RD Y DR L E E V AK F

ratio

WHOLESALE PRI CES

scale

ratio

s c a le

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1966
PfRCE NTA GE S

1967
ARE

1968

1969

A N NU A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E

L A T E S T D AT A P L O T T E D :

1970
FOR PER1 DDS

197 1

1972

1973

1974

IN D IC A T E D .

A U G US T
PREPARED BY FEDERAL

5

RESERVE BANK OK ST.

LOUIS

WH O L E S A L E PRICES - ALL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
coMPnuiM.QEQ A N M J A L .RATJEfL Q F CttAibLGfL
T N T T IA I

TPQ M TMAI

MDNTH

MONTH
* - 7*

5 - 7 *

« Ï-7 *

4 -7 *

4 -7 *

7 -7 *

A —7 *

<»-7*

in - 7 *

i 1 -7 *

1 7 -7 *

V -74

2 -7 4

* -7 4

4 -7 4

7 -7 4

6 -7 4

126^46

2 -7 *

1 8 .8

3 -7 3

2 4-1

2 9 .7

4 -7 3

1 9 .3

1 9 .5

1 0 .1

5 -7 3

20 .6

2 1 .2

1 7 .1

24 .6

6 -7 3

2 2 .2

2 3 .0

2 0 .9

26 «6

_ _UE£t23L 1 3 0 .2 7
1 3 2 .6 8
1 3 5 .5 0

2 8 .7

.... -¿ 3 3 . 6 3

7 -7 *

1 4 .9

1 4 .2

1 0 .6

1 0 .7

4 .4

- 1 5 .4

a -7 3

24 .8

2 5 .8

2 5 .1

2 9 .1

3 0 .7

3 1 .7

1 0 4 .9

9 -7 3

1 8 .7

1 3 .7

1 7 .0

1 8 .4

1 6 .9

1 3 .2

3 0 .9

- 1 6 .4

1 0 —7 3

1 6 .3

1 ft . 0

1 4 .2

1 4 .9

1 3 .1

9 .5

1 9 .3

- 9 .0

1 2 -7 3

15.^

L 5 .Q

1 3 .3

1 3 .8

1 2 .1

9 .0

1 6 .1

12 -7 *

1 5 .9

1 5 .6

14. 1

1 4 .7

1 3 .3

1 0 .9

1 7 .1

! -7 4

1?..a

1 7-

2 -7 4

1 7 .9

* -7 4

1 7 .7

4-74

5— 74

?

1 3 9 .6 5

- 3 .9

3 .0

7 .2

1 4 0 .4 6

1 .8

8 .7

1 3 .9

2 1 .0
3 0 .3

4 0 .3
2 9 .4

1 4 2 .7 1

1 6 .5

1 7 .3

té . 4

1 4 .7

2 0 .7

8 .5

1 5 .9

1 6 .8

1 7 .5

1 6 .7

1 5 .3

2 0 .5

1 0 .3

1 6 .6

2 1 .4

2 6 .6

17 .6

1 6 .6

1 7 .3

1 6 .5

1 5 .3

1 9 .8

1 1 .0

1 6 .3

2 0 .1

2 3 .6

2 4 .5

1 7 .4

16„5

1 7 .0

>6 . 3

1 5 .2

1 9 .2

11 .4

1 6 .0

1 9 .1

2 1 .7

2 1 .9

1 7 .0

1 6 .4

1 6 .6

1 5 .7

16. 1

1 5 .5

1 4 .5

1 8 .5

1 7 .9

1 8 .4

1 8 .0

1 7 .2

3 f .4
l

1Q

70

2 0 .*

1 9 .7

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

5 -7 3

6 -7 3

6 -7 4

1 6 .7

7 -7 4

1 8 .5

*

1-73

1 5 .3

1 6 .5

1 7 .3

.

- 0 .9

2 2 .1

1 7 .4

fl-7 A

1 3 9 .7 6

1 7 .8

1 7 .5

1 8 .9

.._

1 4 1 .8 6

1 8 .8

2 0 .8

1 4 6 .7 9
1 4 8 .9 8

1 9 ,4
1 7 .3

_1

6 .3

1 £ .4

i5.a_

1 5 0 .7 4

1 4 .7
1 5 .4

1 5 2 .4 3

1 4 .3
1 5 .5

1 5 4 .4 0

1 6 .7

1 2 .0

1 6 .1

1 7 .7

1 1 .3

1 4 .9

1 7 .1

1 8 .6

18«_2_

1A*JL

1 2 .9

1.1*2

1 J ._ L _

2 0 .4

1 4 .7

1 8 .4

2 0 .8

2 2 .6

2 2 .8

2 0 .1

2 0 .3

2 1 .6

2 4 .1

2 2 .9

1 7 .8

21 .5

2 4 .0

2 6 .1

2 6 .7

2 4 .9

2 5 .8

2 8 . 1_

ii*a_. . . 3 7 ^ 3 .

7 -7 3

8 -7 3

9 -7 3

1 0 -7 3

1 1 -7 3

1 2 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3 -7 4

4 -7 4

INITIAL

20 ,.JB _

1 5 5 .1 3

5 .8

.5

2 8 ,tL

5 -7 4

1 6 0 .9 0

5 ^ 0 .

5 6 .3

5 7 .6

6 -7 4

1 6 7 .1 2

7 -7 4

MONTH

W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S - F A R M P R O D U C T S A N D P R O C E S S E D F O O D S A N D F E E D S , S E A S . AOJ .
________________________CQMPnUNOE - O A N N U A L R A T E S Q F CHAttGf____________________________
J X R & m A J _______ ___________________________________________________________ INI T I A L M O N T H ___________________________________________________________________ L967 » 100
MONTH
___________ 1=23___2.-I-3___lz-U_ k=zJ3___5-7 3 6-73___L r I3 ___8-73 9-73 IQ-7 3 11-73 12-73___1-74 2-74 3-74, 4-74 5-74 6-74
_
7-74________________
-¿--13________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 140.9
3-73

55.1___U U iJ_______________ ____________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ 147.4

4-73

37.3

3 6 .0 ___ LJ>_____ ___________ ______________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ ____________________148.3

5-73

42.0

4 2.7

30.1

57.2_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________154.0

6- 7_____3 ±3*2_Î U 1 ___$A*Â _ 68^.0___12^6_____________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________161.7
_
- I- I 3 ____ ¿ 1 U .._________________Lâx l____ Zm * .r i U I .................................................................... .................................................. .... ............................... ......... .............. 154.6
l
_ a r2 3 ____ _______ ISLuJ___1A m3 ___91 *3 . 1Q4.2 117.9 713« 1.

_______________ :________________________________________________________________ 184.1

_2=23____42.^9___41.3___ISL^Q___46^3_ £ 3 .*J_-3 3 .^ .1Q1.9 - 49.
_

1ÜZ-J3____ 33,3

32.5

27.7___U

JLL-JL3____ Z O - 2 6 .7 . J 2 . Q

^

24.2

______________________.______________________________________________________ _________ 173.8

f l

-16...2_ 46.2 -3 8 .0 - 2 3 . 3 ^ V .......................................................................... .......
_

19.4

1Q.1

JL2.-I3____ 2.6^_ Z5^Z ___20.9.
_

2 9 .0 -3 0 .2 -17.5 - 1 1 .4

___LÛ^4___25.4 - 2 1 .4

—L z lâ --- 2 ^ ü ___ZSLm3l 21*2 ___ Zl^t ___lh*J.___ UL*1 ___32,3
—

-6 .7

-0 .4

^

y

...................

170.0

______________________________________________________________________ 168.3

1 2 . 0 ^ ^ ^ _______________________________________________________________ 169.9

-fl.Q____L a ___ L2*_Z_ 12jl2___.6 % ________________________ - _______________________________
_

177.8

-2--Z4____ 21*2 ___Zb^a ___23^3 ___25 *0___21. B

1 6 .1 ___2£*1 _ =¿«.3__________ 16^Q_ 26 .8
_
_

34 .9

- 3 = 1 A ____ 22jJ2___21a .7
___L ^ 2 ___ 19.3 _ L6l..Q

±0^5___19.7

10.8 - 1 1 .2 - 2 5 . 4 ^ _______________________________________ 174.3

- 9 .C

Q.6____6 .2

-± =Ut--- iA*3.— LL^5- -------LiuJ!___LL^5__________ 13.^ - 1 1 , 2
-

- 1*6____ 0.1

2 .6

-5.-1A____ 15.7___U l *2___ L U

-6.3_ - 3 .6
_

-2 .2

Q

___11.2____ a^ l____ 1*2 ____9 .2 - 1 2 .6 '

-■ -74____ LLjlS____2 ^ ____ ________________i^5_ t A
¿■
_

jl Z ____ 3.7

-1 5 .6 -1 0 .6

-1^2A --- L5l«ü — L iu 2 — 11*3 — IImJi____ 3^5____ it*Â___LQ.ifl., ~ S«3
■fl--74--- 2 iLa— L2-Û— 1£±5___1L.1___ 14^8___11*2 .-16.8
1-73

2-73

3-73




4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

- 8 .9

11.1

5.5

0 . 4 - 1 6 . 2 -2 5 .4 - 2 5 . 4 ^ ____________ ; _________________ 170.1
_
N .

________________________166.4

- 8 .5 -11.5 -2 2 .6 -2 8 .4 -2 9 .3 - 3 1 . 3 - 3 8 . 5 ^ ________________159.8

-¿..5____ QjJ.____ 1.6

0 .2

9-73 10-7 3 11-73 12-73
INITIAL

_____________ ___________________________ 178.6

-4 .9 -1 8 .0 -2 4 .6 - 2 4 .3 -23«2

- 8 .5 - 1 1 .0

- Q .6 ___ 5 ^ ____9*2 ___11*3 ___1 U J ____5 .1
8-73

^ ^

1-74

- 7 .1

0 .0

1 4 .1 1 1 1 .6 ^ ^

170.1

5 .0

12.4

24.5

46.3 125.6 1 4 0 .4 ^

183.0

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

M0NTH

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E

6

B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION
RATIO

RATIO S CA L E

1966

1967

PE RC E N TA O ES
LATEST

1968

ARE ANNUAL R A T E «

DATA P L O TTE D *

1969

1970

OF CHANSE FOR PE R IO D S

1971

SCALE

1967-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1967-ÌQ0

1972

1973

1974

IN D IC A T E D .

AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R EP A R E D

BY FE D E R A L

R E S ER V E

BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
C O M P C U N D E O A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E
1 9 6 7 « 100

INITIAL M O N T H

TERMINAL
MONTH
1-73

2-73

3-73

4- 7 3

5-73

6-73

7-7 3

8-73

9-73

10-73 11-73

12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-7 4
123.4

2-73

12.4

3-73

7.6

3.0

4-73

6 .4

3.5

4. 0

5-73

6.8

5.0

6.0

8.0

6-73

6.8

5.4

6.3

7.5

6.9

7- 7 3

7.5

6. 5

7.5

8.6

9. 0

11 . 0

1
123.7
124.1
124.9
<4.5%

123. 6
126.7
126.5

8-73

6 .1

5.1

5.5

5.9

5.2

4.4

-1.9

9-73

5 .7

4.8

5.1

5.3

4.6

3.9

0.5

2.9

10-73

5.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.1

3.4

1.0

2.4

126.8
127.0

1.9

127.5

11-73

5.2

4. 5

4. 6

4.7

4.2

3.7

1.9

3.2

3.4

12-73

3 .8

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.2

1.4

-0.4

0.0

-0.9

-2.3

-9.0

1-7 4

2.6

1.8

1.7

1.4

0. 6

-0.3

-2.0

-2.1

-3.3

-4.9

-9.5

-9.9

2-74

1.8

1.0

0.8

0.5

-0.3

-1.2

-2.8

-3.0

-4. 1

-5.6

-8.8

-8.7

-7.4

4 , a V \

1 26.5
125.4
12 4 . 6
1 2 4.7

3-74

1.8

1.0

0.8

0.5

-0.2

-1.0

-2.4

-2.4

-3.3

-4.3

-6.4

-5.6

-3.3

1.0

4-74

1.8

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.0

-0.7

-1.9

-1.9

-2.6

-3.3

-4.8

-3.7

-1.6

1 .5

1 .9

5-74

2.1

1.5

1.4

1.2

0. 6

0.1

-0.9

-0.8

-1.3

-1.7

-2.8

-1.5

0.7

3.6

4.9

8.0

6-74

2.1

1.5

1.4

1.2

0.7

0 .2

-0.8

-0.7

-l.l

-1.4

-2.3

-1.1

0.8

2.9

3.6

4.4

7-74

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.5

0. 1

-0.8

-0.7

-1.0

-1.4

-2.1

-1.1

0.5

2.1

2.4

2.6

0.0

-0.9

125.TP

8-74

1.5

1.0

0.9

0. 7

0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.0

-1. 4

- 1 . 7 |- 2 . 4

-1.5

-0.3

1.0

1.0

0.7

— 1.6

— 2.8

1 2 5 . 2P

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-7 3

10-73 11-73

12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5- 74

6-74

124.9

X

125.7
125.8

1.0

7-74

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




P R E P A R E D 9V F E D E R A I
S E P T E M B E R 18, 1974

7

RESERVE

B A N K OF ST. L O U I Ì

PE RS ONA L
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

OF D O L L A R S

1966

I NCOME
RATIO

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

1967

1968

1969

1970

TRILLIONS

1971

1972

1973

s o w e i t «.s. ocp a s Tueur *
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERlOOS INOICATEO.

SCALE

OF D O L L A R S

1974
commerce

LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt AUCUST PRELIMINARY
PREPAREO SY FEOERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL INCOME
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL PATES OF CHANGE

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L MONTH

TgRMI^AL
m^nth

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

10.0

3.7

3.7

11.2

10*0

9 .2

9 .4

2 -* 3
3-73

14.3
12.4
11.5

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-7»

5-74

6-74

7-74

13.7

5-73

6-73

12*6

4-73

5-73

IS .9

■UPJltT

■ jg ??
L tO
10*0

1 .0 4 7 .2

7 -7 3

lia

1 0 . 2 ____ 9 ^ 5 ____ 9 . 8

8-73

11.5

10.3

10*4

1 0 .ft

11.5

12.3

13.9

9-73

12.0

11.4

l i . 2 __ 11.7

12.5

li.3

14.6

15.4

10-73

12.0

11.5

11.3

12.4

13.0

13.8

13-8

11-73

11.8

11.4

11.3

12-73

11.5

11,1 .1 0 ,9

1-74

10.5

10.0

9.7

11.8

..... .IP a .L .
■t Q * T .y
V

1 .0 8 0 .4

-LtP.?.o»e

12.2

1 1 .6 1 2 .1

12.5

13.0

12.7

11,4

11,2

11.5

ÌUÒ

12.0

11.5

1 0 J ____9 ^

9.8

10.0

10.0

9 .9

9.1

7 .6

10,6

6 .1

8 .0
3 .9

■A±A.Q7 t !
- 0 .1

AilPTtP

- z ± 120-.
l l ___

_L l L L L l4 .

3-74

9.8

9. 3

9 ,0

9. 1

9.1

9 .0

8.8

8.1

6 .9

5.9

4 .7

3.7

5 .6

4.1

< -74
►

9,7

9 .3

9 .0

9.1

9 .1

9 .0

8 .8

8 .2

7.2

6 .4

5.6

5 .0

6 ,7

6 ,5

9 ,1

1.117.1

5-74

9.8

9 .4

9.2

9 .2

9.3

9.2

9. 1

8 .5

7.7

7.1

6 .5

6 .2

7 ,8

8 ,1

10. 1

1 .1 3 5.2

11,2

6-74

9.3

9 .4

9.2

9.3

9.2

9.1

8 .6

7.9

7 .3

6 .9

6 .7

8 .1

8 ,3

9,8

10.2

9,1

7-74

1 0 .?

9 .8

9.7

9 .7

9 .«

9. 8

9 .7

9 .3

8.7

8, 4

8,1

8.1

9 .5

10,0

11.5

12.4

13.0

16.9

9-74

10.0

9 .7

9 .5

9 .6

9 .6

9 .6

9 .5

9 .1

8 .6

8,2

8 .0

8 .0

9 .2

9 ,5

10.6

11.0

11,0

U .9

7 .2

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10- T3 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

1 .1 4 3,5
1 .1 5 8.5
1 .1 6 5 .2 P

IN IT IA L MONTH
*>- PftFLIMINA^Y




PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 19, 1974

8

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES
RATIO

SCALE

BI L LI ONS

1966

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

OF DOLLARS

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

UMCIi
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST

B I L LI ONS

1972

SCALE

OF DOLLARS

1973

1974

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

OATA PLOTTED. JULY, AUSUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE
fftCFAREO «V FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF ST. LOUIS

R ET A IL SALES
COMPCUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL______________________________ _________ ____________
MONTH
4-73
5-73
1-71 2-73 3- 7 3
6-73. 7-73
2-73

a -7 3

IN IT IA L MONTH__________________ ____ ______________________________________ MILLIONS OP
DOLLARS
6- 74 7-74
1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 5-74

9-73 I Q z l l J U z J X

41,242

17.0
2 3 .7 {

3-73

20.3

4-73

4 .8

5-73

7.7

4.7

-3.6

16.9

6-73

2 .7

-0.5

-7 .5

-0.3 -14.9

7-73

10.4

9. 1

5.7

16.3

4 1 ,9 7 9

- 0 . 8 - 20. 5

4 1 .1 8 5
4 1 ,7 2 3

16.0

4 1 ,1 6 7

58.0

4 2 ,7 6 7

8-73

7.0

5.5

2.2

8. 8

6.2

18.6

-1 1 .0

9-73

6.8

5.4

2.6

8.0

5. 9

13 . 9

-3 .3

5.0

10-73

7 .5

6.4

4. 1

8.9

7.3

13*7

1 .9

9 .0

11-73

6 *7

5.6

3.6

7.6

6.1

10.9

1.5

6 .0

12-73

3.8

2.5

C.4

3.4

1.6

4.7

- 3 .6

- 1 .7

1-74

5.5

4.5

2.7

5.7

4.4

7.5

0.8

3 .3

2-7.4 .... 5.5

4.6

3,0

5.7

4. 5

7.3

1.5

3 .7

3.4

1.1

1.5

15.4

5.8

3-74

6 .6

5.9

4. 5

7.1

6.2

8.9

3 .9

6 .2

6 .4

5 .1

6.4

17.8

13.9

2 2 .6

4-74

7.0

6.3

5. 1

7.5

6. 7

9.2

4 .8

6 .9

7.2

6.2

7.5

16.2

13.2

17.1

u

5-74

7.6

7.0

5.9

8.3

7.6

9. 9

6 .0

8.1

8.5

7.8

9.1

16.6

14.3

17.3

14.8

6-74

6 .6

6.0

5.0

7.1

6.3

8.3

4 .7

6 .4

6.5

5 .7

6 .5

12.1

9 .5

10.5

6 .7

4 .3

-7 .8

7-74

8.9

8. 5

7.6

9.8

9.3

11 . 4

8 .2

10.1

10t 7

10.4

11.7

17.5

16.2

18.4

17.4

19.3

20.0

56

8-74

8 .3

8. 4

7.5

9.6

9.1

11.1

8.1

9 .9

10.3

10.0

11.2

16.2

14.8

16.4

1 5 .?

16.1

15.5

29

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6- 74

4 2 ,3 5 5
4 2 ,5 2 9

13.2 ^
6 .5

7 J %
0.2

-

4 2 ,9 7 6

- 3 .8 -11.3 -2 1 .5
2.9

-0.6

-0.4

in it ia l
p

4 2 ,9 7 0

4 2 ,1 1 6

2 5.9

4 2 ,9 3 *
4 3 ,1 3 4

43, m
.

e

\

4 4 ,2 8 3

17.9

4 4 ,8 9 4
4 4 ,5 9 3

46,276P
.2

7 ,0 Ì

46,538E

7-74

M n th
o

pr e l im in a r y

e s t i m a t e s _______________




_
_

_____________ : ________________________________________________________ ___________________________
_

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE
SEPTEMBER 12. 1974

9

BANK OF ST* LO UIS

COMPENSATION PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL P R IV A TE ECONOMY
________ CCMPCUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_________
T E R M IN A L

1967

QUARTER

i n i t i a l

»

100

QUARTER

3-69
4-69

1-7 0

*-o9

¿-70

3-70

4-70

2 -7 1

1 -7 1

3-71

4 -7 1

2 -7 2

1 -7 2

3 -7 2

1 -7 3

4 -7 2

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

9. 9

1 1 9 ,5

6. 2

7.7

Ò .6

7.1

3 -7 0

8 .1

7.4

8.1

7. 4

c.a

7.5

7.0

2 -7 1

7.3

b«9

7.0

7.0

6,3

7.C

6 ,3

3 -7 1

7 .4

7.0

7.1

7.1

6 .7

7 .3

7 ,0

7,8

4 -7 1

7 ,0

6 .6

6 .7

6 .6

6 .1

6.4

6 ,0

5 ,8

1
4

8.Û

0

1 -7 0
2 -7 0

1 2 3 .4

9.C

1 2 6 .1

7.0

6 .9

4 .8

1 2 7 .6

7.2

7.2

6 .3

1 3 0 .0

7 .7

1 3 2 .0
1 3 4 .5
1 3 5 .8

3 .9

1 -7 2

7.2

6.S

7.0

7.0

6 .7

7 .1

6 ,9

7 .1

6 .8

9 .8

2 -7 2

7 ,1

6 .9

7.0

6 .9

6 .6

6 .9

6,8

6 ,9

6.6

8 .0

6 .2

3-72

«
4
.
C

i- 7 1

1 2 1 .3

6 ,7

6 ,7

6 ,7

6.4

6 ,6

6 ,5

6 ,5

6 .2

6 .9

5 ,5

4-72

7 .3

6,d

6,8

O.Ö

6 .5

6 ,7

6 ,6

6 .7

6 .4

7.1

6 ,2

6 ,2

7 .5

i-73

7 ,4

7.2

7,3

7.3

7.2

7 ,4

7 ,4

7 .5

7.5

8.2

7,8

8 .4

10.2

13.0

2-73

7 ,3

7.1

7,2

7,2

7,1

7« J

7,2

7 ,3

7.3

7.8

7,5

7.8

8 .8

9 .4

6 ,0

3-73

7 ,2

7 .0

7.1

7,1

6 .9

7,1

7,1

7 .2

7 .1

7.5

7 ,2

7.4

8 .0

8 .2

5 ,8

4-73

7.3

7.1

7 .2

7,2

7.0

7 ,2

7,2

7 .3

7 .2

7 .6

7 .3

7 .5

8 .0

8 .2

6 .6

7 .0

8.3

i-74

7 .2

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.0

7 ,2

7,1

7 .2

7.1

7 .5

7 .2

7 .4

7.8

7 ,8

6 .6

6 .8

7.4

6 .5

2-74

7.6

7 .5

7.5

7 .6

7 ,5

7 .7

7.7

7 ,6

7.8

8.2

8*0

8 ,2

3 .7

8 ,9

8 .1

6 .6

9 .6

10,3

4-69

l-7o

2—VO

3-fO

4-70

J - t f T

1 3 9 .0

1 -7 2

4 -7 1

i - n

1 4 1 .1

4 .9

“2 = 7 7

142*8
1 4 5 .4

149,9

1 -7 3

T -7 2

152.1
5.6

2 -7 3

1 5 4 .2

"3 = 7 3 "

1 5 7 .3

4 -7 3

159.8
14.2

165.2

T-T4

IN IT IA L QUARTER
OUTPUT PER MAfc-HOUR» TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
C0MPCUN0EC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-69

4—
6*»

4-69

— ,8
0

2-70

0,6

1 .*♦

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

QUARTER

4-71

1-72

1967 • 100
2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

- o .a

1-70

1-70

103.1
-0.«

1 0 2 .9

3.!>

103.8

3-70

2 ,3

3.4

«5.5

r.t>

4-70

1,5

2.1

3.1

2 .9

- 1 ,5

1-71

2 ,8

3 .6

*.r

5 .0

3 ,8

9,4

2-71

2 ,7

3.3

4.2

4.3

3,3

5 .8

2.2

3-71

2.9

3.4

4.1

4.2

3.4

5.1

3.0

3 .7

4-71

2 .9

3 .3

3.9

4.0

3 .3

4.6

3.0

3.4

3.0

1-72

3 .0

3.4

4.0

4.0

3 .4

4.5

3.2

3.6

3.5

4 .1

2-72

3.2

3.6

4. 1

4.2

3.7

4,6

3.7

4.1

4.2

4.8

5.5

3-72

3.2

3.',

4. 1

4.1

2 .7

4.5

3.7

4.C

4.0

4 .4

4.5

3, 6 *

4-72

3.4

i .'i

♦ .2

4.1

3.9

< .6
*

3 .9

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

4,5

5 ,4

1-73

3.6

4 .C

<«.4

4.1

4 .8

4 ,2

4 .5

4.6

5 .0

i
>.2

5,1

5 ,9

6 ,4

1 0 5 .7
1 0 5 .3
1 0 7 .7

J.i JQ9L

\

1 0 8 .3

109.3
110.1
111.2
112,7
113.7
115.2

2-73

3.3

~4~. 4 ^
t. ■ .J
■
4.'5
».9

4 •C

3.6

4 .2

3,6

3 ,8

3,8

3 .9

3.9

3 .5

3,4

2 ,4

'

3-73

3.J

.Î.2

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.6

3 .0

3.1

3.1

3.1

2, 9

2.4

2,1

1,0

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

4-73

2.»

3 .0

J.3

3 .3

2.9

3 ,3

2 .8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2 ,5

2.0

1,7

0 ,8

- 1 ,0

- 0 .9

- 2 ,6

[

117.0
u

>

116,6

\
s<

116,1

A l %
8

o .o X ^

1-74

2 .2

2. 4

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.5

1 .9

1.9

1.7

1.6

1,3

0 .7

0 ,2

- 0 ,8

- 3 .0

- 3 .6

- 7 .0 s

2-74

2.2

2. J

2.3

2.5

2,1

2,4

1.9

1 .8

1.7

1.5

1.3

0 ,8

0 ,4

- 0 ,5 1 - 1 .8 1 - 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .9

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-ró

2-Ti

3-71

4 -7 1

1 -7 2

2 -7 2

3 -7 2

1-73

3-73

4-73

116,1




i - n

4 -7 2

2-73

114,0
k

114,4

1-74

W t m r ""(KJAKTC
TT

------------------------------------- PffEPXEIP ^ B V T B D t m t H lf ? SERVÊ BANK OF S IT IÜ 0 1 S
SEPTEMBER 3, 1974

1 0

PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS
RATIO

SCALE

RATIO

19 67 -100

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

S CALE

1 9 6 7 -1 0 0

SEA S O N A LLY A D JU S TED

1971

1972

1973

1974

SOURCEi 0.8. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CNAN6E FOR PERIOOS INOICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTEO» 2ND OUARTER
PREPARED DY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNIT LAeOR COSTS. TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
CCMPCLNOEC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL__________________________ _______________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_____________
QUARTER
3-69 4-69
1-70 2-70
3-70 4-70
1-71 2-71
3-71 4-71
1-72 2-72 3-72
10.7

1967 * 100
1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

115. 8

9.1

7.5

7.1

5 .4

3.4

3-70

5 .7

4.1

2.4

1.4

5.3

* .7

3.7

3 .9

fc.5

i
o

1-70
2-70

*

4—
69

____
4-72

117*9
118.9
119*3
121*2

1-71

4 .6

3.4

2.4

2 .0

2 .4

- 1 .6

2-71

4 .5

3.5

2.6

2 .6

3.0

1.3

4 .4 ^ + 2 . 8 %

122*0

120*7

3-71

4 .4

? •5

2.9

2.7

3.1

2 .0

3.8

123.0

4-71

4 .0

3.2

2.6

2 .5

2 .7

1.7

2 .9

2 .1

1.0

1-72

4 .2

3.5

3.0

2.9

2 .2

2 .6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

6 .0

2 .2

3.0

2 .6

2.4

3.1

0 .3
0.8

3.3

123*3
125.1

2-72

3.8

3.2

2.7

2 .6

2 .8

3-72

3 .6

3 .0

2.6

2 .5

2.6

125*2

2.1

2 .7

2 .4

2.1

2.5

4-72

3.5

2.9

2.5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .0

2.6

2 .3

2.1

2.4

1.2

1 .6

1-73

3.7

3.2

F 0
I
____

2.7

2 .9

2 .5

3 .0

2 .8

2.7

3.1

2 .4

3 .1

4 .0

2-73

3.9

3 .5

3.2

3 .2

3 .3

3 .0

3 .5

3 .4

3.4

3.9

3.4

4 .2

5 .2

6 .9

3-73

4.1

3.7

3.5

3.5

3 .6

3 .4

3 .9

3 .8

3.9

4.3

4.1

4 .8

5 .7

7 .0

4-73

4 .4

4 .0

3 .B

3.8

4 .0

3 .8

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

4 .7

5 .4

6 .3

7 .4

7 .8

7*8

8*4

1-74

4.9

4 .6

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .6

5.1

5 .2

5.4

5 .9

5 .9

6 .7

7 .6

6 .8

9*4

10*0

It* 5

14*6

2-74

5 .3

5.0

4 .9

5 .0

5.2

5 .1

5 .7

5 .8

6 .0

6 .5

6 .6

7 .4

8 .3

9 .4 | 1 0*1| 10*7

11*8

13*6

1 2*5^

4-69

r-76

2-70 ~ T - 7 ir 4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4=7T

1-72

2-72

3-72

1-73

3-/3

4-73

1-74

125*6

1.3

126*2

dr

.......... - ................... .

... ..................................... ........................... ......... ... .




128*1

w

4-72

130*5
T .5

132.8

7*2

2-T3

135*5
140*2
144*4

IN IT IA L CUARTER

PREPAR ED BV F K P E f f lF Rg S l ff V E ~ B 1 WK (IF “ S T * 'H CT O 1 5
SEPTEMBER 3* 1974

11

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS'

'biTxrmrw
TERMINAL
OUARTCft

ANNUAL
4 -6 9

1 -7 0

2 -7 0

o
•

3 -6 9
4 -6 9

3 «6
4 .1
4 .9

5 .4

6 .1
4 .7

4 .4

6 .6

7 .2

7 .9

1 -7 2

2 -7 2

3 -7 2

4 -7 2

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

8 .4

9 4 8 .9

4 -7 0
t—
E

R A T E S .... ..

1- 74

7 * 1 S|

4 .5

4 -7 1

4 .6

3 -7 0

3 -7 1

4 ? | ,s , + 4 . 2 %

2 -7 0

2 -7 1

(T T n

1 -7 0

1 -7 1

4 -7 0

—

OOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

9 5 8 .5
9 7 0 .6
9 8 7 .4
9 9 1 .8

S

— d
E

i- 7 i

6 .0

2 -7 1

6 .3

6 .9

7 .3

7 .9

8 .2

1 1 .5

3 -7 1

6 .2

6 .6

7 .0

7 .4

7 .5

9 .5

4 -7 1

6 .4

0 .3

7 .2

7 .6

7 .7

9 .2

7 .3

7 .0

1 -7 2

7 .0

7 .4

7 .9

8 .2

Ö .4

9 .8

8 .5

8 .7

2 -7 2

7 .3

7 .7

a . i

9 .5

8 .7

9 .9

8 .9

3 -7 2

7 .5

7 .9

8 .3

8 .6

8 .8

9 .9

9 .0

1 * 0 2 7 .8
1 .0 4 7 .3
6*6

1 ,0 6 1 .3
1 .0 8 3 .2
1 0 .4

ii

9 .1

1 0 .4

1 1 .3

9 .2

1 0 .2

1 0 .7

1 0 .0

^

1 ,1 1 5 * 0

K
1 * 1 4 3 .0
VL» I V . V / T
9

>

1 ,1 6 9 .3

\

1 .2 0 4 .7

4 -7 2

7 .9

3 .3

8 .7

9 .0

9 .2

1 0 .2

9 .5

9 .8

1 0 .7

1 1 .2

1 0 .9

1 1 .1

1 2 .7 s '

1 -7 3

8 .4

f l. 6

9 .2

9 .6

9 .9

1 0 .8

1 0 .2

1 0 .6

1 1 .5

1 2 .1

1 2 .0

1 2 .5

1 4 .1

i s

2 -7 3

a . 5

8 .9

9 .3

9 .6

9 .8

1C. 7

1 0 .2

1 0 .5

1 1 .?

1 1 .7

1 1 .5

1 1 .8

1 2 .6

1 2 .5

3 -7 3

9.6

9 .0

9 .3

9 .6

9 .9

1 0 .6

1 0 .2

1 0 .4

1 1 .1

1 1 .4

1 1 .3

1 1 .5

1 1 .9

1 1 .7

9 .6

4 -7 3

8 .7

9 .1

9 .4

9 .7

1 0 .0

1 0 .7

1 0 .2

1 0 .5

l l . l

1 1 .4

1 1 .3

1 1 .4

1 1 .8

1 1 .6

1 0 .3

1 0 .6

1 -7 4

8 .5

a .a

9 .1

9 .4

9 .6

1 0 .2

9 .8

9 .9

1 0 .4

1 0 .6

1 0 .4

1 0 .4

1 0 .5

1 0 .1

8 .6

6 .5

7 .8

2 -7 4

8 .4

a .7

9.0

9 .3

9 .4

I 1 0 .0

9 .6

9 .7

1 0 .1

10.3

1 0 .1

1 0 .0

1 0 .1

9 .7

8 .6

8 .3

7 .7

6 .0

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

4-70

X

1 .2 4 8 .9

.

1 ,2 7 7 .9
1 ,3 0 8 .9

i o a Ss^
l h 2 S

1 ,3 4 4 .0

v

1 ,3 5 8 .8

1

1 .3 8 3 .8

1- 7 4

GROSS NATIONAL Wöf>UCT W C C N S T a NT 1958 DOLL~A~TC
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
6 T n iö fR " ö r

IN IT IA L QUARTER

QUARTER
3-69
4-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-7C

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

TERMINAL
2-72

3-72

DOLLARS

ANNUAL RATES

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

r .,> ^

729.1

1-70

- 2 .2

- 2 .1 s

2-70

- 1.3

- o .e

3-70

- 0 .3

0 .4

1.7

- 0 .8

- 0 .4

- 0 .8

1.3

2 .2

2 .7

4-70
1-71

S

1..II 71
0 .7

721.2
0 .5 s

722.1
7^7.2
719.3
r
\
'
1 10. 2s

736.9

2-71

1.0

1.6

¿ .3

2 .d

2 .7

6 .4

3-71

1.2

1 .7

2 .4

2 .9

2 .8

5.2

2 .8

27> ^

4-71

1.8

2.3

3 .0

3 .4

3 .5

5.5

4 .0

4.fc

» T N

1-72

2.2

2 .9

i .4

3. a

4 .0

5 .7

4 .6

5 .2

6 .4

742.1
747.2
759.1

* 6 -7 *

6 .4

770.9

2-72

2.6

3.3

3.9

4 .4

4 .6

6.1

5.4

6 .0

7.1

7 .4

8.4 s

3-72

3.1

3.5

4.1

4 .5

4 .9

6.1

5.5

6 .0

6.3

6 .9

7.2

6 .0 s

4 .9

5 .2

6.4

5 .9

6 .4

7.1

7 .3

7 .6 .

7 .1

8 .0

7 .9

8 .9

6 .5

6 .6

5 .8

4-72

3.5

3 .9

♦. 5

1-73

3.9

'♦.4

4 .9

5 .3

2-73

3.8

4 .2

4 .7

5 .1

3-73

3.6

4 .0

4 •*
5

4 .9

5 .0

4-73

3.5

3 .9

.3

<*.6

4 .8

814*2

6 .3

6 .8

7.5

7 .7

5.8

6 .2

6.7

6 .8

6 .8

5. d

5.4

5 .7

6.1

6 .0

6 .0

5 .5

5 .4

4 .4

1 .9

1 .6 s O /

5.5

5 .1

5 .4

5.7

5.6

5 .4

4 .9

4 .7

3 .9

2 .1

2 .0

f Z

5 .3

786.6
798.1

71

6.3

832.8
837*4

1

840.8

2 .V S .

845.7

2.9

1

3.6

3 .*

3 .9

4 .5

4.1

4 .2

4.3

4 .1

3.8

3 .2

2 .7

1.6

- 0 .3

- 1 .1

-2*4

-7^0^

830.5

3 .0

i.3

3 .5

3.5

4.1

3 .6

3 .7

3.fl

3 .5

3.2

2 .5

2.1

1.1

- 0 .5

- 1 .2

- 2 .2

- 4 .4

-1 ^

827*1

3-69

*

INI

3.2

2.7

1-74

4-6^

1-70

70

3-70

h-70

1-71

2-71

i-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72 T - T T

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-

—

INITIAL QUA*T?ft

---- _
--------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ■
------- ____________— _ _ _____— _ _




SEPTEMBER 20,

1 2

1974

w

.

-

—. n

i .

.

•

DEMAND
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

AN D

PRODUCTION

TOTALS

AT

QUARTERLY

OF

DOLLARS

ANNUAL

RATIO

RATES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

TRILLIONS

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

«

1 . 2

«

0 .

0.9

0 .

0.8

0 .

0.7

0 .

0.6

0 .

0.5
1966

1967

1968

U_6NP
ßGNP

IN

1969

1970

I N CURRENT D O L L A R S .

1971
SO U R CE *

1972
U .S .

1973

1974

D EP A R TM E N T OF COMMERCE

1 9 5 8 DOLLARS.

P E R CEN TAG E S ARE ANNUAL RATE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S
L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D «




IN D IC A T E D .

2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FE D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T .

13

L O U IS

GENERAL P R I C E
RATIO

INDEX*

SCALE

RATIO

1958 *1 0 0

1966

SCALE

1958*100

196?

1966

1969

1970

1971

1972

1975

1974

* S USEO I I NATIONAL IN O E A
I
C M CCO N
U TS
SUKCti «.S. MfMITlKNT Of C M E C
O MRE
PERCENTACES ARC A N A RATES O CHANtE FOR PERIORS INRICATE0.
NUL
F
LATEST D
ATA PLO
TTED« 2N O R R
0 tIA TE
PREPARE« i t FEDERAL RESERVE R N O ST. LWIS
A K F
IMPLICIT PRICE OSFIATOH

T O *

GROSS NiTIONALPKOOUCT

IN IT IA L 1 QUARTER

TFRMINAL

1958

*

100

Ô Ù À ftttA

3-69
4-69
1-70

5 .9

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4
►-70

1 -7 1

2 -7 1

3 -7 1

4 -7 1

1 -7 2

? - ?2

3-72

4 -7 2

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

5 .5

1 3 0 .0 8

6 .3

1 3 2 .9 1

0
p
1

5 .5

5 .5

3-70

5 .1

5 .0

4 .3

4-70

5 .4

5 .3

5 .0

5 .2

1-71

5.3

$.2

« .9

5.1

1 3 4 .4 1

I . Ì S

2-71

5.2

5 .2

3-71

* .9

< * .8

4-71

4 .5

h .4

1 3 5 .7 7

«*.1

1 3 7 .0 0

5 .5

4 .7 s

1 3 9 .4 7

..

5 .0

5 .3

*•5

I
1

4 .6

4 .0

3.7

2 •6*SV W

4 .1

4.1

3.5

3.1

2.2

i
.........

1

1 4 1 .1 3
1 4 2 .0 3
1 4 2 .7 0

r o .iT V "

1-72

4 .6

4 .5

4 .3

4 .3

4 .3

3 .9

3.7

3 .3

3.7

5 .5

2-72

4 .4

4 .3

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

3.6

3.3

3 .0

3.1

3 .7

1 .9 s

3-72

4 .3

4 .2

< .0
>

3 .9

3 .9

3.5

3.3

3 .0

3.1

3.6

2 .6

3.9

1 4 4 .6 2
1 4 5 .3 1
1 4 6 .5 0

4-72

4 .3

4 .?

4 .0

J.9

3.0

3.4

3 .2

3.3

3 .7

3.1

3 .7

♦

1-73

4.4

4 .3

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

3.8

3 .7

3 .5

3.7

4 .0

3 .7

4 .3

4 .8

4.1

4 .0

4.2

4 .6

4 .4

5*0

5 .6

6 ,4

7«»

1 5 2 .6 1

5 .1

5 .0

5 .7

6*3

7*0

7 .8

l î T

1 5 5 .6 7

>

V ^

1 4 7 .9 6
1 4 9 .9 5

2-73

4 .A

4 .5

4 .3

4 .3

4 .3

4.1

3-T3

4 •*i

t.7

4 .6

4 .6

4 .7

4 .5

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

4-73

5.0

5 .0

4 .9

4 .9

5.0

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

5 .1

5 .5

5 .5

6 .2

6 .7

T .4

• •1

• .3

1-74

5.4

5 .4

5 .3

5 .4

5 .5

5.4

5 .5

5 .5

5 .8

6 .3

6 .4

T.O

7 .6

•«4

9 ,1

9*7

1 0 .5

IM

2-7*

5.6

5 .6

5.6

5 .6

5 .7

5 .7

5.8

5 .8

6 .1

6 .6

6 .7

7 .3

7 .9

1 ••*1.

9*2

9*6

1 0 .1

1 0 .8

3-69

4-'>o

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

T -Y f

3- f t

4 - f l

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3




2-71

■
■

m i m -

1 -7 2

3 -7 2

4 -7 2

V

.
s

l é

1 5 0 .9 3

V

S ,

1 6 3 .6 1
9«^ \

1 6 7 .3 1

i- 7 4

Q U O TE*"

m

n

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SEPTEMBEft 2 0 , M T *

14

i

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P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
__________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ___________
TERMINAL

INITIAL QUARTER

WÀfttÈR
3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

»«71

1-72

2-7 2

3-72

4-72

1-T3

7.5
1-70

7 .3

2-70

2-73

3-73

4-T3

"BILLIONS O F ”
DOLLARS
"ANNUAL KATES"
1-74

594.4

_____________________

604.6

7 .0

7 .0

614.0

6 .9
4-70

623.7

6 .5
5 .7

626.3

5.3

4 .7

3*0

7.6

8 .0

•8

14.9

7.5

7 .8

8.3

11.0

7.3

7 .3

7 .5

7 .8

9 .4

6 .8

6 .2

6 .9

6 .7

7.1

9.2

7.8

8 .0

8 .9

650.5
662.1

2-71

7.5

3-71

7.3

4-71

7 .3

7.3

7 .4

7.6

1-72

7.6

7 .7

7 .9

8 .2

2-72

8.0

8.1

8 .3

8.6

9 .6

8.5

9 .7

II.1

11.3

3-72

.1

8 .4

8 .7

9 .5

8.7

8 .9

9 .6

10.5

10.3

9 .3

8.7

9 .0

9 .8

9.1

9 .4

10.0

10.7

10.7

10.4

11.5

7.3

8.1

8. 3

8 .5

672.1
683.•
701.5

10.8

720.6
736.8
757.2
781.7

9 .2

9 .0

10.2

9 .6

10.0

10.6

11.3

11.4

11.5

12.6

13.6

9 .4

10.1

9 .6

9 .9

10.4

10.9

11.0

10.9

11.4

11.3

9 ,2

9 .2

9 .4

10.0

9 .5

9 .8

10.2

10.7

10.6

10.5

10.8

10.5

9 .0

8 .9

9 .0

8 .8

9 .5

9 .2

d .8

9 .1

9 .5

9 .8

9 .6

9 .3

9 .4

8.8

7 .3

6 .3

8 .9

9 .1

9 .4

9 .2

9 .2

8.7

7 .5

7.0

6 .0

8 .4

9 .8

9 .8

9 .9

9 .6

8 .8

8 .7

11.3

14.3

2 -T 2 " 3 = 7 7 ~ ^ “ 7 r

T - 7 T “ 2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

T-74

4-73
1-74

8 .4

8.5

2-74

8.7

8 .8

8 .7
8 .9

9 .1

9 .3

9 .7

9 .3

9 .5

“ • r a r ~ ~ 4 - 6 9 " 1 - 7 Ö ' “ 2 = 7 ö ' 3 -7 Ö

4 -7 3

1 -7 1

2 -7 1

10.1

10.0

T - T I " "^*7 1

1 -7 2

799.0
816.3
823.9
840.6
869.1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ mTTTTT W ygTEE------- 1------------------------------------------------------HtRSUNAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L RA T E S OF C H A N G E

"Ö Ä T R
URE-

"BTUrTUKS* UF
DOLLARS

INITIAL QUARTER

TERMINAL
3-69

4-69

4-69

2.1
2.3

2.3

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

1
ANNUAL

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

RATES

1-74

1.8

2-70

2-70

2.3

1-70

1-70

4 7 2 .2

474.3
477.5

2 .7

460.9

3-70

2.4

2 .5

2.8

2 .9

4-70

1.4

1.1

0 .9

0 .0

- 2 .8

1-71

2.9

3.0

3 .3

3.5

3.9

11.0

2-71

2 .9

3.0

3 .3

3 .4

3 .6

6 .9

3.1

477.5
490.1
493.8
497.7

3-71

3.0

3.1

3.3

3 .4

3.5

5.7

3.1

3.2

4-71

3.2

3.3

3.5

3 .7

3.8

5.6

3.8

4 .2

5.2

1-72

3.6

3.7

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

5 .9

4.6

5 .2

6 .2

504.1
512.6

7.1

523.2

2-72

4 .0

4.2

4.5

4 .7

4.9

6.3

5.4

6 .0

6 .9

7 .7

8.4

3-72

4 .2

4 .4

4 .6

4 .9

5.1

6.3

5.5

6 .0

6 .7

7 .2

7.3

6 .3

4-72

4 .5

4 .7

5.0

5 .2

5.5

6 .6

5.9

6 .4

7.1

7.6

7.7

7.4

531.2
542.2

8.5

552.9

1-73

4 .8

f .0
>

5 .2

5 .5

5.7

6 .7

6 .2

6 .7

7.3

7 .7

7.8

7 .6

8.3

8.1

2-73

4 .5

4 .7

4 .9

5.1

5.3

6.1

5.6

5 .9

6 .3

6.5

6 .3

5.8

5.7

4 .3

0 .6

3-73

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .8

4 .9

5.6

5.1

5 .4

5 .6

5.7

5 .5

4 .9

4 .6

3 .3

0 .9

1.2

553.7
555.4

4-73

3.6

3.7

3.8

3 .9

4 .0

4 .6

4 .0

4 .1

4 .2

4.1

3 .7

2 .9

2 .3

0.8

- 1 .6

- 2 .7

- 6 .4

1-74

3.1

3.2

3 .3

3.3

3.4

3 .8

3.3

3.3

3 .3

3.1

2 .6

1.8

1.1

- 0 .4

- 2 .4

- 3 .4

- 5 .6

- 4 .7

2-74

3.1

3.1

3.2

3 .3

3.3

3 .7

3.2

3 .2

3.2

3 .0

2 .6

1.8

1.2

0.1

- 1 .5

-2.0

- 3 .0

- 1 .3

2 .2

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

f-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74




546.3
539.7
542.7

IKilTtÀL (JüÀftW

“ REPARED W T É B E
P
AUGUST 22» 1974

15

rài

rE s F r V

ETO

ïk

CTF“5r. T O U T S

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

---------------------------------------------------- — ---------—
_________________ ___________IN IT IA L Q

TERMINAL

Qu a r t e r

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

— ------------------------------------------------BILLIONSTT

U

A

1-72

4-71

R T E R ___________________________________________________ DOLLARS

ANNUAL RATES

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

4-69

- 1 5 .4

137.9

W O

- 1 4 .3 -1 3 .2

133*1
139.4

2-70

- 7 .7

- 3 .6

7.1

3-70

- 3 .2

1.3

9 .4

11.7

4-70

- 3 .6

- 0 .4

4 .3

3 .0

-5 .1

1-71

1 .3

5 .0

10.1

11.2

10.9

29.6

2-71

4 .0

7.6

12.4

13.7

1 4.4

2 5 .6

21 .8

3-71

3 .3

6 .3

10 .0

10.6

1 0.3

15.9

9 .6

- 1 .3

4-71

5.1

8 .0

11.4

12.1

12.2

17.0

13*1

9 .0

20.4

1-72

6 .8

9 .6

12.8

13.7

14.0

18.2

15.6

13.6

21.8

23.2

2-72

7.5

10.1

13.1

13.8

14.2

17.7

15.5

1 4 .0

19.6

19.1

15.2

3-72

8 .2

10 .6

13.4

14.1

14.4

17.5

15.6

14.3

18.6

18.0

15.6

15.9

4-72

9 .0

11.3

13.9

14.6

1 4 .9

17.7

16.0

15.1

18.7

18.3

16.7

17.5

19.0

139.2
137.4
146.6
194.0
193.9
160.8
169.4
179.9
\162.1
190.2
199*0

1-73

9 .7

11.9

14.3

15.0

15.4

17.9

16.5

15.8

18.9

18.6

17.5

18.2

19.4

19.8

2-73

9 .9

12.0

14.2

14.8

I5 ,l_

17.4

16.1

15.4

18.0

17.6

16.5

16.9

17.2

16.3

12.8

3-73

9 .8

11 .7

13.8

14.3

14.5

16.5

15.2

14.5

16.7

16.2

15.0

15.0

14.8

13.4

10.3

7 .8

16.4

18.2

17.5

17.8

18.2

18.0

17.4

19.8

-s 209.1
209*0
224.9

33.1

15.5

15.8

17.8

16.8

16.3

12.1

12.5

12.5

14.0

12.8

12.0

13.5

12.7

11.5

11.0

10.1

8 .5

5 .8

3.5

1 .4 - 2 2 .7

11.6

11.8

11.8

13.2

12.0

11.2

12.4

11.6

10.4

9 .9

9 .0

7 .4

5 .1

3 .3

1.8 -1 1 .0

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4—
72

1-73

Z—
73

4-73

11.1

1 3.0

15.0

1-74

8 .8

10.5

2-74

8 .5

10.0
"* - W

3-73

4-73

210.9
2 .5

211.8

1-74

IN IT IA L QUARTER

G R O S S P R I V A T E DUM e 5 T1C I N V E S T M E N T IN t U N S I A N I 1958 D O L L A R S
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-69

4-69

4-69
1-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

ANNUAL RATES

2*72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

- 1 9 .0 -1 6 .7
- 1 2 .1

2-70

- 2 1 .2

2-70

1-70

BILL1UNS OF
DOLLARS

QUARTER

107.4

- 7 .1

102.6
3 .6

103.9

3-70

- 7 .5

- 2 .5

5 .5

4-70

- 8 .4

- 4 .9

- 0 .6

1-71

- 3 .6

0 .4

5 .2

2-71

*^1.1

2 .7

7.1

3-71

- 1 .8

1 .3

4 .7

4-71

0 .3

3 .4

6 .6

7 .2

7 .1

12.4

8.6

5 .4

19.1

1-72

1.9

4 .8

7 .9

8 .5

8 .7

13.3

10.7

9 .2

18.0

17.0

2-72

2 .9

5 .6

8.5

9 .1

9 .3

13.3

11.2

10.2

16.5

15.2

13.4

3-72

3 .6

6 .2

8.8

9 .4

9 .6

13.1

11.2

10.5

15.2

13.9

12.4

4-72

4 .3

6 .8

9 .3

9 .8

10.1

13.2

11.7

11.1

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.9

14.3

1-73

4 .8

7.1

9 .4

10.0

10.2

13.0

11.6

11.1

14.4

13.4

12.6

12.3

12.7

11.1

2-73

4 .9

7 .0

9.1

9 .6

9 .8

12.3

10.9

10.4

13.1

12.1

11.2

10.6

10.3

8 .4

7 .5

105.4

_

- 2 .7 - 1 1 .9

102.1

4 .8

24.7

8 .0

8 .2

19.9

15.3

4 .9

4 .3

10.3

3.7

5 .7

107.9
111.8
- 6 .6

109.9
114.8
119.4
123.2
126.6

11.5

130.9
134.4
136.3

5 .8

3-73

4 .5

6 .5

8.3

8 .7

8 .8

10.9

9 .6

9 .0

11.2

10.1

9 .0

8 .1

7 .3

5 .0

2 .1

- 1 .5

4-73

6 .0

7.9

9.8

10.3

10.5

12.6

11.6

11.2

13.4

12.7

12.1

11.9

12.0

11.4

11.5

14.4

32.9

149.8

1-74

3 .5

5.2

6 .8

7 .0

6 .9

8 .6

7.3

6 .6

8.0

6 .9

5 .7

4 .6

3 .5

1 .5

- 0 .8

- 2 .9

-3 .6 -3 0 .1

133.3

2-74

2.9

4 .4

5 .8

5 .9

5 .8

7.2

6 .0

5 .2

6.4

5 .2

4 .0

2 .8

1.7

- 0 .3

- 2 .4

- 4 .4

- 5 .4 -20.1

- 8 .7

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-7Z

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

1-74




139.8

4-73

130.3

IN IT IA L QUARTER

> R f PARCO' B V F E D E R A I R E S E R V E B A N K O F S T •'T O O T ?
AUGUST 22 . 1974

1 6

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS A N IT T E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS
____
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________
TERMINAL

B iLLIOWSH P T “
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

“ OOWTER
3-69
4—
69

4—
69

4 ,6

1-70

2-70

3-TO

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

______________

4-72

1-T3

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-7»

_______________________________________________

1-70

5.4

6.1

2-70

3.6

3.1

0 .2

3-70

4.1

3.9

2.9

5 .6

4-70

4 .4

4 .3

3.8

5.6

1-71

5.1

5.2

2-71

5 .2

5.3

5.2

5 .7

5.6

217.3
220.3
223.3

5 .6

2 27.9

7 .0

8 .5

6 ./

7.3

6.1

6 .7

7 .0

7 .5

7 .0

7 .8

7.5

3-71

7 .8

8.4

8 .4

9 .6

11.3

6.6

4-71

231.3
2 3 9 .7
242.1

1-72

7.1

7 .4

7.5

8.6

9 .1

9 .8

10.2

11.6

13.5

15.7

2-72

6 8

.

7.1

7.2

8.1

6 .4

8 .9

9 .0

9 .7

10.4

9 .9

4 .4

3-7?

6.4

7.4

7.6

7 .9

7 .8

8 .2

8 .2

7.2

3 .2

4-72

6 .9

7.1

7.1

7.9

6.1

8 .4

8 .8

9 .0

8 .5

6 .2

7.1

12.3

1-73

7.1

7.3

7.4

8.1

8 .3

8 .6

8.6

9 .0

9 .2

8 .8

7.1

8 .1

11.2

10.1

2-73

7.1

7.2

7.3

7 .9

8.2

8.4

8 .4

8 .7

8 .8

8 .4

7.0

7 .7

9 .6

8 .3

291.1
253.0
299.1

2.1

262.6
269.0
6 .5

273.3
2 76.9

3-73

7.0

7.1

7.2

7 .7

7.9

8 .1

d .l

8 .3

8.4

8 .0

6 .7

7 .2

8.5

7 .3

6 .0

5 .4

4-73

7 .4

7.6

7.7

8 .2

8.4____8 .6

8.7

8 .9

9 .0

8 .8

7 .8

8 .4

9 .7

9 .1

0 .7

9 .0

14.4

1-74

7.8

8 .0

8.1

8 .6

8 .8

9 .1

9 .4

9 .6

9 .4

8 .6

9 .3

10.5

10.1

10.1

1 1 .4

14,9

14.6

9.6

8 .9

9 .5

10.6

10.3

10 .4

11 .4

13.9

1 3 .0

2-74

9 .1
9 .3

8 .0

>-¿9

21 4 .0
217.2

9 .3

9 .6

9 .7

206.4
296.3
304.4

11.4

T W V - T = v r - J=v r F 7 0 ~*-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 " ^ 72 " I^T 3 2-73 3-^73 4^73 1-74

---------------------------------------------- -----------INIt i a l QUARTER-----------------------------------------------------GOVERNMENT PURCHASES O GOODS AND SERVIC ES IN CONSTANT 195* DOLLARS
H
______________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________________
TERMINAL

.rourrar
3-69
4-69

"BILLIONS OF

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-69

i-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

- 1 .4

4-71

1-72

DOLLARS

ANNUAL RATES
2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

144.6

2-70

- 5 .5

- 7 .5

- a .7

3-70

- 4 .9

- 6 .0

- 6 .0

— .1
3
- 0 .6

1

- 6 .2

0

- 3 .8

142.3
139.1
130.0

4-70

- 4 .0

- 4 .7

- 4 .2

- 1 .9

1-71

-3 .5

- 3 .9

- 3 .4

-1 .5

- 0 .7

- 0 .9

2-71

- 3 .0

- 3 .3

- 2 .7

—
1.2

-0 .5

-0 .4

3-71

- 1 .9

- 2 .0

-l.?

4-71

- 0 .8

- 0 .7

0.1

1-72

-0 .4

- 0 .2

0.5

1.9

2-72

- 0 .3

-0 .2

O.i»

1.7

137.0
137.9
0 .0

137.9

1.2
1.7

1.8

3.2

6 .6

2 .7

3 .5

5 .0

7 .6

8.6

2 .8

3.5

4 .6

6 .2

6 .0

3.4

2 .4

2 .9

3 .6

4 .6

3 .9

1.7

0.0

139.7
142.6
143.0
143.0

3-72

—O.H

- 0 .7

- 0 .1

1.4

1.6

2.1

2 .5

1.5

-0 .7

- 2 .8

- 5 .4

4-72

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

0.2

1.1

1.6

1.9

2.3

2 .6

1.9

0.3

- 0 .7

-1.1

3 .4

1-73

- 0 .2

-0 .1

0.4

1.3

1.7

2 .0

2 .4

2 .7

2.1

0.8

0.2

0 .3

3 .3

2-73

- 0 .2

-0.1

0.3

1.1

1.5

1 .7

2 .0

2 .3

1.7

0 .6

0.1

0.1

2 .0

1 .3

- 0 .6

3-73

- 0 .2

-0.2

0.3

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.8

2 .0

1.4

0.4

- 0 .0

-0 .1

1.3

0 .7

- 0 .6

- 0 .6

4-73

0.1

0.2

).6

1.3

1.7

1.9

2.1

2 .3

1.9

1.1

0 .8

0.9

2 .2

1 .9

1.5

2 .5

1-74

0. L

0,2

0.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

2 .0

2 .2

1.8

1.1

0 .8

0.9

2 .0

1 .7

1 .3

2 .0

3.2

0 .8

2-74

0.1

0.2

0.6

1.5

1.6

1.8

2 .0

1.6

0.9

0.6

0 .7

1.6

1.3

0 .9

1.3

2 .0

0 .1

- 0 .5

3-69

4-69

1-7Ü

3-70

4-70

i- 7 l

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74




2-70

141.0
143.0
3 .1

144.1
143.9
143.7
149.7

5.7

146.0
149.0

W fP À Â T Ô BV FÉOÊAÀL &ESËAVÊ fiÀ N k Ö F 5 7 ~ L Ö Ü IS
AUGUST 22» 1974

17

0 1»POSABLI »»frRSUNAL INCOME T^ CURTTENT OOLLAK*
COMPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

-T O W » * — v u a* i t

k

_3_-69

4-69

------------------------------------------------------------mjTJAl_OU**Tfft____________________________________________ W » !
4— 6 9

1-70

¿-70

3-70

4-70

1-7 1

2-71

n v n r i l V IT E S
3-71 4-71
1-72

2-7 2

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3 - 73

4-73

8.3

- l ~7° „

-

1-74
696*1

7*9___ ___________________________ ____ _____________________________________________________________
9.*>

2-70

6 6 9 .2
669*0

ij.3

1 3 . 0 _________________________________________ __________ _____________

*- 7 0 _____9^2____ 9 ,5

10.5

* - 7 0 ____7 ,9____ 7 .8
j

7 .9

8 .0 _______________________________________________ _____________________________
5 .4

702*4

2*8__________________ ____________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ 707*2

1-71

8.7

B .7

9.Q

7 .7

7 .6

12*7___________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ 728.6

2-71

fl.7

8 .8

9 .0

b.O

8 .0

10.7

8 . 8 _______________________________________________________

744*1

7 .2

7 .0

8 .4

6 .3

3 .9 _________________________ _________________

751*9

6 .9

6 .7

7 .7

6 .1

4*8

5.7 _________ __________ ___________________________________________________________________ 761.8

3-7

1 8.1

4-71

7.8

d .Q_____8,1
7 . ft

7.8

1-7 2_____ 7.7____ 7 .7 ____ 7.7____ 6 .9 ____ 6 .7

7.6

6 .3

5*5

6.3

6*9 774*7

2-72

7.9

7. 7

7.7

7.1

t.9

7.7

6 .7

6 .2

6 .9

7*5

8 *1 _______________________________________________________________________ 790.0

3-72

7.9

7.8

7.9

7 .3

7.2

7 .9

7.1

6 .7

7.4

8 .0

8 .6

9 .0 _________________________________________________________

>07*1

4-72

a .*

6 .5

3 .to

8 .2

8 .2

8 .9

8 .3

8 .3

9.1

10.0

il.I

12.5

16*2________________________________________________________ 838.1

1-73

9 .0

9 .1

9 .2

8 .8

8 .9

9 .6

9 .2

9 .3

10.2

H .2

12 .2

13.6

16.0

2-73

9.1

9 .2

9 .3

9 .J

9 .1

9 .7

9.4

9 .5

10.3

11.1

11*9

12.9

14.3

13*3

10*8________________________________________692*1

3-73

9 .2

9 .2

9 .4

9 .1

9 .2

9 .8

9 .5

9 .6

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.4

13.2

12*2

10.5

10*1

__________________________913.9

4-73

9 ,3

9 .4

9.5

9 .3

9 .4

9 .9

9 .7

9 .8

10.4

11.0

11.6

12.2

12*9

12.1

10 .9

10*9

11.6________________________ 939.4

1-74

9 .1

9 .1

9.2

9 .0

9 .0

9 .5

9 .3

9 .3

9 .9

10.3

10.8

11.2

11*5

10*6

9 .3

6 .8

2-74

9 .0

9 .0

9.1

8 .8

8 .9

9.3

9.1

9 .1

9.6

10.0

10.3___ 10.6

10.8

10.0

8 .8

8 .3

7.7

“4=71

T = 7 2 ' 7-72

1 = 7 2 .T F 7 Z

T=7T ■
7-73

“
3-71

5-69

• * - 6 9 " r-=Tö"" 2F7<r ~r-7T5~ ^ T S ­ T=7T~ ‘7-71

15*8________________________________________________ 669*9

8.2

4*9________________ 950*6
5 .9

6*9

966*5

T
T F T T “' - 7 * --------

INI T I A L Q U A R T E R
OI S P O S A R L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E n r C W ß T A N T 1958 O O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A NNUAL R A T E S OF C H A N G E

-

b I L L 4O k * O P
OOLLARS
ANNu a l HATES

IN I T I A L Q U A R T E R

TERM INAL
giiAirrBs
3-69

4-69

1-70

2- 70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74
521*2

4-69

¿ .0

1-70

?. 7

2.3

524*2

1
5.7

9.1

o
t
I*
*

*.Ì
j

6.7

4.4

4-70

3.1

3.1

3 .4

O.o

- 3 .1

1-71

4.0

*♦•2

4.7

3. 2

2.7

2-71

4.1

4.3

4.7

3 .6

3.3

6.6

4 .5

3-71

3.7

3.3

4.1

3.1

2.7

4.7

2 .8

l.l

4-71

3.7

3.2

4.0

3.2

2.9

4.5

3.1

2.4

1

«M

©

4 .8

4.7

535*6
541*6
537*4
546*8

8.8

954.9
556.4
S61.6

3.8

566.2

1-7 2

3.7

*.7

J.9

3. 2

3.0

4.3

3.2

2.7

3.6

3.3

2-72

3.8

i.9

4. 1

3.5

3.3

4.4

3.6

3.4

4.1

4.3

5.3

3 -72

4 .0

V. 1

4. 3

3.7

3. 7

4.7

4.0

3.9

4«
6

4.8

5.6

5.9

581.9
600*1

573.6

4-72

4.7

4.Ö

5. Û

4.6

4.7

5 .7

5.2

5.4

6.2

6.9

8.1

9.5

13.1

1-73

5.1

5.2

5.5

5. 1

5.2

6.2

5.9

6. 1

6.9

7.6

8.6

9.8

11.7

10.4

2-73

4.9

5.0

i.2

4.9

4.9

5. 3

5.4

5.5

6.2

6.6

7.3

7.8

8*4

6.1

2 .0

3-73

4.7

4.Û

5.0

4.7

4.7

5.4

5.1

5.2

5.7

6.0

6.4

6.7

6«9

4.9

2.2

2.3

4-73

4.5

4.0

4.7

4.4

4.4

5.0

4.7

4.7

5.1

5.3

5.6

5.7

5.6

3.8

1.7

1.5

0.7

1-74

3.7

3.H

3.9

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.8

3 .8

3.8

3.6

3.2

1.4

-0.8

-1.7

-3.7

-7.8

2-74

3.3

3.3 __ 3^4

J.J

2_^9 __ 3 j ,_4____3^0 ___ 2 . 8 ___3_._0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.1

0.4

- 1 .5

-2.4

-3.9

- 6 .1

-4.4

4-71

1-Y2

2 -f2

3-7F

4-72

1=7jr

2 ~ T T

3- n

4-75

1-74

3- 6 9 "4=69"' ì - 7 0 ~

2- 70




3- 7 0

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

619*1
616.2
621*6
622.9

610.3
603.5

P r e P A r E O ' I V FEOEiftlL R E S é r v ë ' ft«ÏK O F ST. 1 0 0 1 ?
AUGUST 22* 19T4

CïffifiFÔRATE P R O F I T S A F T E R T A X E S *
C O H P G U N O E P A NNUAL RATES CF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-69

4-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

f t l U n W S Or
DOLLARS
ANNUAL KATÉ5
1-74
4 2 .1

- 9 .8

4 0 .8

1-70

--10.8 -11.8

2-70

-•11.3 -1 2 .0 -12.1

3-70
4-70

- 7 .6

- 6 .9

- 4 .4

39.5
39 .9

4.1

36 .7

-12*2 -12.8 -1 3 .2 -1 3 .7 -28.4

1-71

- 2 .2

- 0 .6

2.5

7.8

9 .8

68.3

2-71

2.7

5 .0

8.7

14.7

18.4

52.4

3-71

4 .9

7.1

10.7

15.9

19.0

»-71

6 .4

8 .7

11.9

16.5

19.2

1-72

9.8

11.1

14.4

18.8

21.4

2-72

9.7

11.8

14.8

18.7

4 1 .8
37 .9

4 5 .9

41.0

29.1

20 .9

4 7 .5

35.4

26*0

20.4

19*9

35.0

27.8

24 .5

26.4

33.3

21.0

32.1

25.8

2 3 .0

23.7

25.6

4 9 .7
5 3 .4
55 .7

18.4

98 .4

3-72

10.6

12.6

15.4

19.0

21.0

30.4

25.0

22.5

22.9

24.0

19.6

20 .8

4-72

12.4

14.4

17.2

20.6

22.6

31.1

26.5

24.7

25.5

27.0

24.9

2 8 .3

36.3

t 1-73

15.5

17.7

20.6

24.1

26.3

34.5

30 .8

29.8

31.3

33.8

33.9

39.5

49.9

63 .1
6 4 .9

71.5

2-73

15.4

1 7.5

20*1

23.3

25.2

32.4

28.9

27.8

28.8

30.4

29.8

32.9

37.1

37.5

14.7

3-73

14.0

15.8

18.0

20.7

22. 3

26.3

24.9

23.5

23*9

24.5

23.1

24.0

24.8

21.2

4 .0

- 5 .8

4-73

13.2

14.8

16.9

19.3

20.5

25.9

2 2 .6

21.2

21.2

21.4

19.7

20 .0

19.8

16.0

3 .2

- 2 .2

1 .7

1-74

16.3

18.0

20.2

22. 7

21.2

29.5

24.7

29.8

26*3

2 7 .0

26 .2

27.4

28.5

27.0

19.0

20.5

5 4 .3

• 2 .7

2-74

15.5

17.1

19.0

21.3

2 2 .«

27.4

24.7

23 .4

23.9

24.3

23.3

2 4 .0

24.4

22. 9

1 5 .5

15.7

2 1 .9

3 6 .7

2 .4

3-69

4-69

1-7Ô

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

1-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-71

1—
75

2-71

5-71

4-71

1-74

7 4 .0
7 2 .«
73.2
85.1
8 5 .6

IN IT IA L QUARTE!
* NATIONAL INCOME B A SIS
Tw w w n r » ? F g K i A r m m v t
SEPTEN8ER

20«

m w

o» T

1974

SOURCES OF DATA
National Income and Product Accounts Data
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Historical Data Sources:




1970-73:
1968-69:
1966-67:
1964-65:
1929-63:

Survey of Current Business, July 1974
purvey of Current Business', July 1972
Survey of Current Business', July 1970
Survey of Current business', July 1968
I l e National Income and Product Accounts of the
fi
United States, 1^29-65, Statistical Tables
(available from any U.S. Department of Ccaimerce
Field Office or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402).

19

fm w rr

The Trend of Output
Ratio Scale

Ratio Scale

Billions of Dollars

1952

1954

Billions of Dollars

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

Sh ad e d a rea s represent periods of business recessions as defined by the N atio nal Bureau of Econom ic Research.
J The trend of output was determ ined from the regression lnQ=5.7385+.0092t, which w as estim ated from
qu arterly data for the 1/1947 - 11/1971 period. The coefficient (.0092) is the estimate of the trend rate of increase
of output for the period. The line has been extrapolated beyond 11/1971.
,_2 G ro ss N a tio n a l Product at 1958 prices.




20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102