Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1995

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OCTOBER 1995

National
Economic
Trends
Introducing Chain-Weight
GDP Data in National

year. T o lessen the bias in measuring current
econom ic growth, the base year is regularly updated.
Although such a revision presents a more accurate
picture o f the current econom y, it further distorts the
history o f the series.

Economic Trends

Th e chain-weight index w ill m inim ize the bias in­
herent in a fixed-weight index and eliminate the changes

A t the end o f this year, the Department o f Com m erce

in historical growth rates that occur when a new base

w ill change the w ay it calculates real gross domestic
product (G D P ). For nearly 50 years, real G D P has been

year is established. U nder this method, real G D P is

calculated using a fixed-w eigh t index. This method o f

question. F or exam ple, the calculation o f 1991 real

calculation w ill be replaced with a chain-weight index.

G D P uses the prices in 1990 and 1991 as weights.

Starting with this issue o f National Economic Trends,

Real G D P fo r 1992 uses the prices in 1991 and 1992

calculated using prices in years close to the year in

w e have added the chain-w eight series to the charts on

as weights. M o v in g through tim e form s a chain o f

pages 4 and 5.
This change w ill more accurately measure the level

weights that gives the index its name.

o f output and econom ic growth. To measure output in

sured growth under the tw o indexes. In years close to

Th e table below illustrates the difference in mea­

any year, the Departm ent o f C om m erce first establish­

the base year (1987), there is little substitution bias, so

es a base year. In the base year, currently 1987, real

growth is the same using either index. A s expected,

G D P is set equal to nominal GDP. Under a fixed-

however, the chain-weight index indicates higher

w eigh t index, the prices in the base year are used to

growth in years prior to the base year and slower

determine real G D P in every year. Thus, real G D P o f

growth in years beyond the base year. Furthermore,

$5,344 billion in 1994 indicates how much the econo­

as one m oves further from the base, the substitution

my produced i f goods and services cost the same as

bias inherent in the fixed-w eight index accumulates,
resulting in an increasing divergence between the

they did in 1987.
There are, however, problem s with this method o f

tw o indexes.

calculation. A s prices change, people and businesses

- Patricia S. Pollard

alter their purchases, substituting away from goods
w hose prices are rising relative to

AVERAGE ANNUAL REAL GDP GROWTH

others and toward goods w hose
relative prices are declining.

Period

Chain-Weight

Fixed-Weight
(1987$)

Difference

1961-1975

3.75%

3.38%

0.37 % points

goods at their previous higher
prices overstates output growth.

1975-1986

3.18

2.88

0.30

1986-1991

2.02

2.02

0

B y contrast, growth may be under­
stated in years before the base

1991-1994

2.72

3.16

Thus, output increases most fo r
those goods w hose relative prices
are falling. Evaluating these

-0.44

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System

National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve


Economic
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.


Table o f Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8

9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (G D P)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components o f Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in this Publication
This publication makes extensive use o f “ triangles” to present compound annual rates o f change over various peri­
ods. Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quar­
ter o f 1990 to the fourth quarter o f 1991. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates o f change from any date on
the top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown
in the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1990 to m/1991 can be
found at the intersection o f the D/1990 column and the HI/1991 row, a -0.6 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of
change from 1/1990 to IV/1991 is -0.2 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter
to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-90

2-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Annual Rates
2-91

3-91
4,917.1

1.5

3-90

0.3

-0.9

4-90

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

-2.0

-2.6

-2.1

-1.0

-1.0

0.0

2.2

4,906.5
4,867.2

1-91

-1.1

2-91

-0.5

3-91

-0.3

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

1.6

1.0

4-91

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.1

0.5

•

4,842.0

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




2

4,867.9
4,879.9
0.1

4,880.8

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
1.0
2.8
1.9
2.9
3.9
3.2
3.9
3.5
3.0
4.2
3.7
4.4
3.9
4.5
4.0
5.0
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.0
4.8
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.2

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

5.0
4.4
3.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3

3.8
3.2
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.4

2.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.5

7.1
6.1
5.7
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.7

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
5.597.9
5,636.8
5,705.9
5,759.9

5.2
5.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.6

5,796.6
5,896.8
5,971.3
4.9
6.7
6.0
5.5
52
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.6

8.6
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.7

4.4
4.3
4.1
5.0
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.4

4.2
4.0
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.5

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.8
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.6

7.7
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.4
5.9

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.1
5.6

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

7.2
6.7
6.6
6.1
5.5

6.2
6.3
5.8
5.1

6.4
5.5
4.7

4.7
3.9

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

6,043.6
6.169.3
6,235.9
6,299.9
6,359.2
6,478.1
6,574.7
6,689.9
6,791.7
6.897.2
6,977.4
7,030.0
3.0
1-95

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

3

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

5.0

...

Percent

5.0

^
1987 dollar

^

Tren d
(Fixed—w eight)

f/2

1

2.5

2.5
Chain—weigh t

&

0.0

/

1989

É

“

'

1

i * .1

1

1991

o

1

/

CO
CO

-2 .5

--------- *

I

0.0

_r" I

'

-

1992

1

1

1

-

1993

1

1

1 1 .

1

1 99 4

-2 .5

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
differs oriyeslfg'htl>fn~^ear mov'n^ avera9® of fixed—weight (1987 dollar) growth rate. The chain—weight trend (not shown)
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
-3.2
-2.6 -2.1
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.5
LI
1.4
0.9
1.4
2.0
1.4
1.9
1.5
1.9
1.6
2.0
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.7

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

1.0
0.5
1.4
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0

0.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
3.0
2.7
2,6
2.6
3,0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.2

3.1
2.8
3.0
3.7
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91

4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
4,867.2

2.2
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0

4,842.0
4,867.9
4,879.9
4,880.8
4,918.5
2,4
2.9
3,9
3.2
3,0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3,7
3.6
3.4

3.5
4.6
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.5

5.7
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.6
3,7
3.7
3.9
3.7
3,5

1.2
1.8
2.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.3

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.4
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.5

6.3
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.2
3.8

3.3
3,7
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

4.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
3.4

4.0
4,6
3.9
3,3

5.1
3.9
3.0

2.7
2.0

1.3

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.




2.7
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.7

4,947.5
4,990.5
5,060.7
5,075.3
5,105.4
5,139.4
5,218.0
5,261.1
5.314.1
5,367.0
5,433.8
5,470.1
5,487.8

4

Implicit and Chain Price Deflators for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

4-91

3-90 4-90
4.3
5.0
4.6
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5

1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

2.8
2,7
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-95
115.0
116.4
117.2
118.0

2.7
3.2
3,1
2.6
2.6
2.7
2,6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2

118.8
3.8
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2

119.9
2,7
2.0
2,2
2.5
2,3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2,2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2,1

120.7
1.3
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0

121.1
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1

121.9
3.3
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

1.6
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9

1.0
1.1
17
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9

1.3
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.0

2.9
2,9
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

2.9
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.0

1.9
1.6
1.8
1.7

1.3
1.7
1.7

2.2
1.9

1.6

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

122.9
123.4
123.7
124.1
125.0
125.9
126.5
126.9
127.6
128.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

Second quarter data are final estimates.




1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

5

GDP Fixed Weight Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
3.5
4.4
5.3
4.0
4.2
3.1
3.8
3.1
3.1
3.8
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
29
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
115.3
116.8
117.7
118.6

119.4
120.5
3,4
2.7
3.0
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.3
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
29
2,8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

121.5
122.3

2.6
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.6
26
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.8
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
28
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.8
1-95

123.2
124.4
125.2
125.8
126.6
127.5
128.5
129.4
130.3
131.3
132.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

Second quarter data are final estimates.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

CO
CN

4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1987=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
117.5

118.5
24
2.7
3 1
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.4
3.5
29
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
25
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
26
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

119.2
120.1
121.1
122.1
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6

2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2

3.9
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.4

2.6
2.4
2.0
2.1
1.9

2.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
23
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.2
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.2
1.8
1.8

1.3
1.7
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2

2.2
1.7
2.2
2.4

1.3
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
2.0
2.2
22
2.2

3.2
3.2
3.1
2.5
1.9
2.7
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.6
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

2.5
1-95

128.9
129.9
130.5
131.2
132.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Second quarter data are final estimates.




123.2
123.7
124.9
125.7
126.4
126.8
127.5
127 9

1.6

;►
—
<0

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92

3-90 4-90
6.7
3.4
5.1
4.2
2.9
3.0
3.9
3.1
3.8
3.7
3.1
3.7
3.2
3.4
3.0
3.1
3.5
3.4
30
3.3
3.0
2.8
3.1
2.8
3.1
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.6
3-90 4-90

October 2, 1995

6

Consumer Price Index
Percent

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95

Initial Month
1982-84=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
3.3
146.8
2.9
2.5
147.1
2.8
2.5
2.5
147.4
2.2
2.5
2.1
1.6
147.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
4.1
148.1
2.9
2.8
3.7
2.9
3.0
3.3
148.5
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.1
5.0
149.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.7
3.7
3.3
3.6
2.4
149.4
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.6
149.6
2.0
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.8
1.6
149.8
2.6
19
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.0
2.0
2.4
150.1
1.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.7
3.2
4.1
150.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.2
3.7
2.6
2.8
3.2
151.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
2.4
2.8
151.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.6
4.9
151.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
152.3
3.1
3.5
4.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
3.1
152.5
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.2
2.4
1.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.7
152.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.4
2.0
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
153.0
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
1.6
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.2
19
2.0
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2,1995

7

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

-2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94
2.9
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.7
2.9
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.9
2.4
3.6
4.9
6.9
1.1
0.8
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.0
1.9
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2 -0.6
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.4
2.5
1.9
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.4
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94




Initial Month
8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
125.2
125.2
125.2
125.1

-3.7
-4.2
-0.3
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.2

-4.7
1.4
2.2
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.1
1.9
1.6

7.9
5.9
5.9
4.9
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.0
2.7
2.3

3.9
4.9
3.9
3.4
3.3
2.9
2.3
2.0
1.7

5.8
3.9
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.1
1.8
1.4

1.9
1.9
2.2
1.9
1.3
1.1
0.8

1.9
2.4
19
1.2
0.9
0.6

2.9
1.9
0.9
0.7
0.4

0.9
0.0
0.0
-0.2

-0.9
-0.5
-0.6

0.0
-0.5

-0.9
8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95

1982=100

125.2
125.5
126.2
125.8
125.3
126.1
126.5
127.1
127.3
127.5
127.8
127.9
127.8
127.8
127.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

8

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

Total compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
3.8
4.2
4.6
4.4 4.7
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5

1-91 2-91

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4

4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
107.2
108.4
109.7

110.8
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3

111.9
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3

3-91 4-91

2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2

2.8
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2

3.9
4.1
3,9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3

4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Data are for the last month of quarter.




June 1989=100
1-95

3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9

3.3
3.0
2.7
2.8

2.6
2.5
2.6

2.3
2,6

2.9

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

113.0
113.8
114.6
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.3
125.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

9

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

8

-2

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
-1.1
3.3
1.1
2.7
1.4
1.4
2.2
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.8
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.2
2.4
2.8
2.3
1.9
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.0
1.8
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.2

1-91 2-91

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1982=100
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
110.5

111.4
2.2
1.6
1.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3




1.1
1.8
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.3

2.5
3.8
3.1
3.1
32
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4

5.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.4

3-91 4-91

1.8
2.5
2.8
1.6
1,3
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.8
2,0
2.0
2,2

3.2
3.3
1.5
1.2
1.5
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2

3.5
0.7
0.6
1.0
1,8
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.1

-2.0
-0.9
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.7
2.0

0.3
1.4
2.5
2.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.4

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.4
3.6
3.0
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.7

4.9
3.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.8

1.7
0,2
1.2
1.9
2.0
2,4

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

-1.3
1.0
2.0
2.0
2.5

3.4
3.7
3.2

4.1
3.0

2.0

3,5

3.6

3,3

4.7

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

10

112.0
112.3
113.0
114.4
114.9
115.8
116.8
116.2
116.3
117.0
118.4
118.9
118.5
119.5
120.7
121.3
122.7

St. Louis

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1 987 -1 00

1987=100

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95

Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94
9.8
10.4 10.9
7.2
5.8
1.0
7.2
6.4
4.2
7.4
6.4
4.9
7.0
6.9
6.3
6.2
5.5
4.2
5.2
4.2
2.1
5.2
6.7
6.1
6.3
5.9
5.7
9.5
4.2
5.7
5.1
4.8
4.1
3.4
4.1 -1.0
5.1
4.3
5.6
4.9
5.2
4.3
3.9
4.5
2.0
5.5
4.8
5.9
6.7
8.3
5.3
5.0
4.7
5.4
4.1
6.4
5.9
6.7
6.5
9.4 11.6 14.9
6.4
6.4
7.3
6.7
5.6
6.4
6.1
6.1
8.6
5.9
7.8
8.8
5.9
6.5
5.9
5.2
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.7
6.7
6.1
5.1
6.4
5.4
5.1
4.6
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.9
4.2
5.1
4.3
5.1
4.1
3.6
4.5
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.4
2.9
1.8
2.7
3.2
4.0
4.3
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.1
3.3
2.7
2.6
3.0
1.8
3.6
4.0
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.8
2.1
2.5
2.1
1.3
3.6
4.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.6
2.3
1.6
4.2
4.5
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.7
3.5
3.0

1987=100
12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
•

3.0
2.0
1.0
-1.2
-0.6
-0.8
-0.1
1.6
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94




1.0
0.0
-2.6
-1.5
-1.6
-0.7
1.4
1-95

-1.0
-4.3 -7.6
2.0
-2.3 -2.9
0.0 -2.0
-2.2 -2.6
1.3
1.0
-1.0 -1.0
4.0
4.5
5.4
1.5
2.0
9.2 14.7
2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95

115.6
116.6
116.7
117.4
118.0
118.2
119.1
119.0
119.5
120.3
121.7
122.0
122.1
122.0
121.2
121.4
121.2
121.6
123.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

11

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Percent

130

t

|

i

1989

I

|
1990

i

I

i

|

i

1991

i

|
1992

i

i

|

i

1993

i

|

i

1994

i

|

r

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-94
2-94 3.0
3-94 1.3
4.-Q4. 1.6
5-94 2.0
6-94 1.4
7-94
1.4
8-94
1.8
9-94 2.1
10-94 2.5
11-94 2.5
12-94 2.4
1-95 2.2
2-95 2.4
3-95 24
4-95 2.1
5-95
1.5
6-95
1.5
7-95
1.7
8-95 1.5
1-94

Thousands of
Initial Month
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
122,208
-0.5
1.0
2.4
2.7
1.6
3.0
1.1
1.1 -0.7
1.6
1.1
0.4
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.6
2.8
4.1
2.0
2,0
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.3
3.3
4.3
4.4
3.7
4.7
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.8
4.5
4.9
2.4
2.8
2.8
4.0
3.7
2.6
2.8
3.5
4.0
2.6
2.7
3.0
2.1
2.3
2.6
3.2
3.5
3.4
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.6
1.1
0.7
2.2
2.4
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.3
2.7
4.8
2.7
3.3
3.2
2.4
2.6
3.1
2.2
2.1
2.7
2.3
3 1
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.9
1.4
2.3
2.9
3.1
1.2
1.4 -0.3 -1.9
2.2
2.0
1.5
1.3
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.0
0.8
0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -7.0
1.4
1.5
1.2
14
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5 -2.5 -2.8
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
0.9
0.7
1.7
1.6
0.5
0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4
1.7
1.6
3.1
4.7
1.3
0.4
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7
1.4
1.5
0.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.4 -1.7
2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95




Persons

122,160
122,402
122,703
122,635
122,781
123,197
123,644
124,141
124,403
124,570
124,639
125,125
125,274
125,072
124,319
124,485
124,959
124,779

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

12

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

i

1
— — 1
— i— '

1989

1990

100

1
— i— '— — 1 T
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

4»H
CO

2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95

Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
3.0
4.3
5.6
4.3
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.0
3.0
3.7
3.1
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
2.9
2.9
2.4
2.8
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.4
2.7
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
2.8
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.1
5.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.1
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.1
19
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.1
2.0
3.3
3.2
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
1.8
1.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
18
1.0 0.1
2,5
24
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.2
1.1
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.4
1.3
0.4 -0.3 -0.6
2.0
19
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.1
1.1
1,2
2.1
2.1
1.7
1.5
2.3
1.6
0.8
3.1
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.5
1.4
19
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.8
1.6
0.1
1.9
1.9
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2,1
2.3
1.2
1.0
1.9
2.5
19
2.0
1.5
1,3
1.3 2.6
2.0
1.6
1.5

Thousands
112,576
113,087
113,363
113,638
113,943
114,171
114,510
114,762
114,935
115,427
115,624
115,810
116,123
116,302
116,310
116,248
116,547
116,553
116,802

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2,1995

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4.6

4.2

3.8

3 .4

Disposable Personal Income

-i
1989

-|
1990

i

i---1---1-- ---1-- 1---1------1---1
-- r
1991

1992

1993

1
1994

r
1995

Real incomes are computed using the personal consumption expenditure deflator (1987= 100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Billions of Dollars
Initial Month
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
2-94 18.1
3.793.3
3-94 10.4
3.1
4-94 5.4 -0.4 -3.8
3.790.9
5-94 6.7
3.2
3.2 10.6
♦
6-94 5.2
2.2
1.9
4.8 -0.6
7-94 4.6
2.1
1.8
3.8
0.5
1.6
3,826.0
8-94 4.5
2.4
2.3
3.9
1.7
4.2
2.9
9-94 4.7
2.9
2.9
4.3
2.7
5.1
5.9
3.9
10-94 6.0
4.7
8.7 11.1 16.5
4.5
6.2
5.4
6.9
11-94 5.1
3.8
3.8
5.0
4.1
6.5
6.8 -2.2
5.0
5.9
12-94 5.4
4.2
8.4
4.3
5.4
4.7
6.9
7.3
3,0
5,6
6.4
4.2
5.2
6.1
3.9
1-95 5.3
4.3
4.6
6.4
3.3
5.3
6.0
6.3
4.1
4.2
5.1
5.2
2-95 5.1
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.8
3.3
3.7
35
5.9
4.2
4.1
5.0
4.4
4.9
4.0
3-95 5.1
5.6
5.5
3.5
3.8
3.8
5.0
5.4
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.3
2.7
4-95 3.7
0.5
1.1 -0.7 -2.2 -4.9 -13.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
2.2
3.1
3.1
3.7
3.1
3.7
1.6
5-95 4.0
3.5
3.6
3.3
1.0
0.3 -0.7 -3.0
8.3
1.7
1.2
3.2
3.3
3.8
3.3
3.6
2.6
6-95 4.1
3.8
3.7
3.5
2,0
0.6 -0.5 6.5
4.8
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.6
2.3
2.9
2.1
1.8
3.3
7-95 4.1
1.5
0.8
5.9
4.8
4.8
3.5
1,6
|,3
3.1
8-95 3.8
4.0
2.6
1.6 -1.6
3-3
34
1.9
2.4
3,0
m
M
34
10
04
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94 7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.




Annual Rates

3,803.1
3,822.9
3.820.9
3,839.2
3,857.6
3,907.0
3,899.9
3.926.1
3,938.6
3.950.0
3,962.9
3.917.0
3,943.0
3.958.4
3,974.0
3.968.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

14

Retail Sales
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982—84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-94
3-94
4-94
5-94
6-94
7-94
8-94
9-94
10-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94
23.2
18.3 13.6
4.3 -4.3
10.2
6.4
13 -4.3 -4.3
3.3
0.1
2.3
9.4
7.0
1.1
3.8 -1.5
5.5
2.3 -0.3
3.5
6.3
4.8
1.9
6.4
3.8
2.7
4.2
6.5
5.5
4.2
6.4
5.6
7.7
7.3
4.1
7.1
5.3
5.2
3.9
6.8
6.3
5.0
6.6
3.4
4.4
5.7
4.4
5.1
6.0
3.2
4.1
5.2
4.1
4.6
5.6
2.4
2.7
3.2
2.5
1.8
4.2
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.5
2.8
4.3
1.5
2.0
2.3
2.0
2.6
3.6
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
3.2
4.0
2.6
3.2
3.1
3.7
3.2
4.3
2.6
2.0
2.4
2.4
3.7
2.9
2.2
2.8
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.8
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 5-94 6-94

Initial Month
Billions of Dollars
7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95
123.681
125.005
124.543
124.090
125.026
124.872
11.4
125.999
9.2
7.0
126.712
10.4
9.9 12.9
128.003
8.3
7.3
7.5
2.3
128.251
6.5
5.3
4.7
0.8 -0.7
128.176
5.7
4.5
3.9
1.1
0.5
1.7
128.353
1.7
3.0
0.7 -2.2 -3.6 -5.1 -11.4
127.065
3.4
2.3
1.5 -0.6 -1.4 -1.6 -3.2
5.8
127.662
2.4
1.3
0.5 -1.4 -2.2 -2.6 -3.9
0.0 -5.4
127.072
2.1 10.2
3.1
2.2
3.3
1.7
0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6
128.107
4.7
4.4
9.6
9.0
3.6
2.9
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.3
13
129.032
1.5
2.7
2.3
3.9
0.8 -6.7
2.0
1.5
0.0
0.1 -0.1
0.3
128.287
2.4
3.0
2.9
0.8
4.4
2.6 -0.5
6.1
2.3
1.9
0.9
0.9
0.7
128.922
7-94 8-94 9-94 10-94 11-94 12-94 1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95 5-95 6-95 7-95

Dollars are measured using the CPI (1982-84= 100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 2 ,1 9 9 5

15

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

Manufacturing
Period
1992
1993
1994

Retail Trade

Total Business(3)

Shipments (1)
2931.95
3100.14
3364.60

Inventories (2)
379.24
377.43
391.81

Sales (1)
1944.61
2072.61
2233.91

Inventories (2)
251.99
267.68
290.02

Sales (1)
6720.25
7113.59
7671.01

Inventories (2)
838.90
860.98
916.55

1994
September
October
November
December

286.13
283.98
291.19
296.05

386.53
388.06
389.99
391.81

189.31
191.49
192.12
192.39

287.25
288.67
289.99
290.02

651.40
653.12
661.90
671.28

902.12
908.57
913.83
916.55

1995
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

297.79
298.56
298.44
295.29
297.09
298.71
292.82
NA

396.10
399.73
402.08
405.68
408.29
410.01
412.45
NA

193.30
191.87
193.15
193.02
195.11
196.77
196.02
197.25

294.30
296.00
297.20
299.69
300.53
300.33
298.25
NA

673.92
675.48
674.80
672.91
678.44
682.96
674.95
NA

928.67
936.09
942.74
952.24
956.52
960.16
962.83
NA




1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are measured using 1987 prices.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
-0.6
-1.5 -2.4
-0.4 -0.3
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5 -0.4
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.5
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.3
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

1.8
0.5
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8

3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
4,888.0
4,858.4

1-95

4,879.8
-0.8
-0.5
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.8

1-91 2-91

4,869.5
-0.2
2.3
2.0
2.4
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.1
3 1
3.1

4.8
3.1
3.2
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.4
33
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.3

3-91 4-91

1.5
2.5
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.2

3.5
4.5
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.3

5,6
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.5
3.3
3,1
3.2
3.5
3.4
3,3

0.2
1.3
1.9
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1

2.4
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.7
3.5
3.4

3.2
4.8
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5

6.4
4.3
3.4
3.6
4,0
3.8
3.6

2.2
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.2
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1.5
2.9
3.8
3.5
33

4.3
5.0
4.2
3.8

5.7
4.1
3.6

2.6
2,6

2.6

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

4,867.3
4,924.8
4,943.2
4,985.3
5,054.1
5,056.8
5,086.5
5.126.5
5.207.2
5,235.7
5,254.9
5,310.0
5,384.4
5,419.0
5.453.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2,1995

17

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate
2-95
1.30

Real GDP

1 -95

4-94

3-94

5.07

2.70

2-94

1 -94

4-93

3-93

4.04

4.09

3.35

6.26

2.69

Components m
2.55

2.57

5.66

4.21

1.47

2.20

6.43

3.17

-1.22

0.13

-0.57

-0.16

2.59

1.12

-0.17

-0.46

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

2.24

1.06

3.39

2.04

0.88

3.11

2.67

2.61

Fixed Investment

0.87

2.47

2.22

1.40

1.40

1.67

3.38

1.70

Nonresidential
Residential

1.48

2.63

2.12

1.67

1.09

1.26

2.30

1.33

-0.61

-0.15

0.10

-0.27

0.30

0.41

1.05

0.37

Final Sales
Change in Business
Inventories

Government Purchases
Federal
State and Local

0.04

-0.13

-0.73

1.13

-0.21

-0.89

-0.02

0.20

-0.18

-0.24

-0.97

0.66

-0.53

-0.72

-0.35

-0.21

0.21

0.11

0.25

0.46

0.31

-0.16

0.33

0.41

Net Exports

-0.60

-0.84

0.74

-0.39

-0.59

-1.66

0.32

-1.33

Exports
Imports

0.84

0.61

2.36

1.71

1.86

-0.43

2.35

-0.38

-1.43

-1.44

-1.59

-2.08

-2.41

-1.24

-1.99

-0.94

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-2.7
-2.7 -2.8
2.1
-1.2 -0.4
-0.6
0.2
1.7
1.3
-0.6 -0.0
0.9
0.4 -0.5
0.5
1.1
2.1
2.1
2.6
5.8
0.6
1.2
2.0
2.3
3.7
2.0
1.0
2.4
2.7
3.8
1.6
2.3
1.5
4.2
2.1
2.8
2.9
3.3
2.7
3.7
1.5
2.7
3.0
2.0
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.5
1.6
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.0
3.6
2.8
2.4
2.9
2.0
3.0
3.2
3.6
2.6
3.0
3.7
2.2
3.1
3.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.7
3.6
2.4
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.4
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91

4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1.7
2.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.3

3.9
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.4

5.6
3.6
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92

2.6
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.3

4.0
4.3
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.3

4.7
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.1
3.2

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.




3.9
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.4
3.4

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1.3
2.2
3.1
2.8
2.9

3.1
4.1
3.2
3.3

5.1
3.3
3.3

1.6
2.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
3.265.9
3,242.9
3,259.5
3,269.8
3,265.3
3,311.4
3,325.4
3,357.6
3,403.4
3,417.2
3,439.2
3,472.2
3,506.2
3,546.3
3,557.8
3,584.7
3.629.6
3,643.9
3.4_________ 3,674.3
1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2,1995

18

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
-24,3
-24.5
-16.5
-9.4

4-90

-24.8
-12.3
-3.8
-4.9 0.7
-0.8 4.7
2.2
7.5
2.1
6.5
4.3
8.5
4.4
8.2
3.2
6.5
3.7
6.8
5.4
8.4
5.8
8.5
5.8
8.4
7.4
5.1
7.0
4.9
4.4
6.4
5.2
3.4
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

2.2
8.7

15.6
15.6 15.6
17.8 18.9
19.0 20.2
15.1 15.0
16.5 16.7
14.9 14.7
11.8 11.2
11.5 11.0
13.1 12.8
12.8 12.5
12.3 12.0
10.8 10.4
10.1 9.7
8.7
9.2
7.1
7.3
7.6
1-91 2-91 3-91

10.9
13.7
15.4
12.9
14.4
13.2
10,7
10.6
12,0
11.9
11.5
10.1
9.6
8.7

22.4
22.6
14.8
17.0
14.6
10.5
10.4
12.5
12.2
11.6
9.9
9.3
8.2
6.5
4-91

22.7
11.2 0.8
15.3 11,7
12.7 9.5
8.3
5.0
8.5
5.9
11.1 9.3
11.0 9.4
10.5 9.1
8.7
7.3
8.1
6.8
7.1
5.8
5.4
4.0
1-92 2-92

23.8
14.2 5.3
6.4 -13 -7.6
2.1
7.2
0.6
n .i
8.1
9.0
10.9 8.5
9.3
10.3 8.2
8.8
8.1
6.1
6.2
5.6
7.5
5.6
4.5
4.4
6.3
4.3
2.6
2.2
3-92 4-92 1-93

9.4
18.4
15.5
13.3
9.2
8.0
6.3
3.5
2-93

28.2
18.7 10.0
14.7 8.5
7.0
3.4
0.3
9.1
7.7
0.9
3.1
5.8
1.8 -0.2
2.7 -1.0 -3.0
3-93 4-93 1-94

-6.0
-2 0
2.3
-2.4 -0.6 -3.4
-5.4 -5.2 -8.7 -13.7
2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

176.3
164.2
165.1
171.2
177.5
186.7
196.5
196.9
207.7
210.4
206.3
211.0
224.5
229.9
233.8
230.2
231.5
229.5
221.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90

-12.7
-7.9
-6.3
-6.2
-5.0
-1.9
-1.0
0.1
0.7
1.6
3.0
1.9
3.8
2.7
5.1
4.1
5.5
4.5
5.8
4.8
6.3
5.4
7.0
6.1
7.8
6.9
80
7.1
3-90 4-90
00
o'

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
-7.7
-10.2
-7.9
-6.7
-6.5
-5.4
-2.8
-1.8

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
540.2

Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
522.2

-3.0
-3.0
-3.9
-2.9
0.4
1.1
2.0
3.6
4.9
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.8
85
9.2
9.4
1-91

518.3
-3.0
-4.4
-2.9
1.3
2.0
2.9
4.6
5.9
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.7
9.3
10.1
10.2
2-91

-5.7
-2.9
2.7
3.3
4.1
5.9
7.2
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.7
10.3
111
11.1
3-91

-0.1
7.2
6.4
6.7
8.3
9.5
9.9
11.2
11.2
11.0
11.3
11.8
12.5
12.4
4-91

15.0
9.9
9.1
10.6
11,6
11.7
13,0
12.7
12,3
12.5
12.9
13.6
13.4
1-92

5.0
6.2
9.1
10.7
11.0
12.6
12.4
12.0
12.2
12.7
13.5
13.3
2-92

7.5
11.3
12.7
12.6
14.2
13.7
13.0
13.1
13.6
14.4
14.1
3-92

15.1
15.4
14.3
16.0
14.9
13.9
14.0
14.4
15.2
14.8
4-92

15.6
13.9
16.2
14.9
13.7
13.8
14.3
15.2
14.8
1-93

12.2
16.5
14.6
13.2
13.4
14.1
15.1
14.6
2-93

21.1
15.9
13.6
13.7

10.9
10.0
11.4
14.5 12.9
15.6 14.6
15.0 14.0
3-93 4-93

9.2
11.6
13.6
15.5
14.7
1-94

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.

17.6
19.6 21.5
16.7 16.3 11.3
3-94 4-94 1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Second quarter data are final estimates.




14.1
15.9
17.7
16.1
2-94

514.4
506.9
506.8
524.8
531.2
540.9
560.3
581.0
597.9
627.2
643.6
657.9
680.0
708.2
743.6
763.7

October 2,1995

19

Real Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90
5.8
4.4
3.0
3.1
1.7
1.3 -0.2
0.4 -0.8
0.6 -0.4
0.1 -0.8
0.5 -0.2
0.5 -0.1
-0.1 -0.8
0.0 -0.6
0.1 -0.4
0.1 -0.4
-0.3 -0.7
-0.3 -0.8
0.1 -0.3
-0.2 -0.5
-0.2 -0.6
-0.2 -0.5
3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95
942.4
949.5

0.5
-1.7
-2.1
-1.2
-1.6
-0.8
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.7
-1.1
-1.1
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8

-3.9
-3.4
-1.8
*2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.9

-0.7

1-91 2-91

. '
-2.9
-0.7
1.5
-1.5 ♦0.8 -3.0
3.4
0.1
0.6
-0.3
2.1
0.7
0.4
-0.1
-1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6
-0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2
0.1
-0.5 -0.2 -0.4
0.1
-0.5 -0.2 -0.4
-0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7
-0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7
0.1
-0.3 -0.1 -0.2
-0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4
-0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4
-0.6
Afin,,
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

950.6
941.3
934.4
937.8

0.9
-2.5
-1.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.3
-1.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.8

-5.9
-2.4
1.2
-1.2
1.1
-1.0
0.7
-1.8 -0.7
-1 7 -0.8
0.4
-0.5
-1.0 -0.3
-1.0 -0.3
„ ¡ M , -0.8 -0.$
3-92 4-92 1-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

1.1
0.5
-1.3
-1.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.5

930.7
938.5
940.6
926.5
929.3
931.8
931.5
919.9
917.1
932.0
922.2
920.5

-0.1
-2.5
*2.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.8

-4.9
-3.1 -1,2
6.7
0.1
2.6
-1.0 0.3
1.1 -4,1
-0.9
0.1
0.5 -2.5 -0.7
(?,1
0.4
-0.3
:P,rT -0,8
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

0.2
1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

Real Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
7.5
8.4
9.3
4.0 -1.1
5.1
1.1 -1.0 -5.8 -10.2
-1.2 -3.2
-1.2 -2.8 -5.6 -7.1 -5.5 -1.3
-1.7 -3.2 -5.5 -6.5 -5.3 -3.1
-0.5 -1.6 -3.3 -3.7 -2.0
0.7
-0.3 -1.2 -2.7 -2.9 -1,4
0.8
-1.9 -2.9 -4.3 -4.8 -3.9 -2.7
-2.1 -3.0 -4.3 -4.7 -3.8 -2.8
-2.2 -3.0 -4.1 -4.5 -3.7 -2.9
-2.4 -3.2 -4.2 -4.5 -3.9 -3.1
-3.0 -3.7 -4.7 -5.1 -4.5 -3.9
-3.3 -4.0 -5.0 -5.3 -4,8 -4.4
-2.5 -3.1 -3.9 -4.1 -3.6 -3.1
-3.2 -3.8 -4.7 -4.9 -4.5 -4.1
-3.2 -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -4.4 -4.0
-3.2 -3.8 -4.5 -4.7
-4.0
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
386.5

1-95
395.2

394.1
383.6
374.1
-4.8
1.7
1.5
-3.0
-3.1
-3.1
-3,4
-4.3
-4,7
-3.2
-4.3
-4.3

8.6
4.8
-2.4
-2.7
-2.8
-3.1
-4.2
-4.7
-3.1
-4.3
-4.2
-4.1
1-92 2-92

11
-7.5
-6,2
-5.4
-5,3
-6.2
-6.4
-4.4
-5.6
-5.4
-5.2
3-92

-15.4
-9.7
-7.5
-6.9
-7.6
-7.6
-5.2
-6.4
-6.1
-5.8
4-92

-3.6
-3.3
-3.9
-5.5
-6.0
-3.4
-5.0
-4.9
-4.7
1-93

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

-3.0
-4.0 -5.0
-6.1 -7.7 -10.3
-6.6 -7.8 -9.1 -7.9
1.1
-3.3 -3.4 -2.9
-5.3 -5.7 -5.9 -4.4
-5.1 -5.4 -5.5 -4.2
-4.8 -5.0 -5,1 -4.0
2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94

10.9
-2.6 -14.4
-3.0 -9.3 -3.8
-3.0 -7.2 -3.4 -2.9
2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2,1995

20

372.9
368.3
376.0
377.0
361.6
358.3
355.6
351.1
341.7
334.7
343.5
330.4
327.2
324.8

Real Exports
(Compound Annual R a te s o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95
9.6
4.1 -1.1
9.4
9.3 20.7
7.1
6.3 10.2
0.6
8.4
8.1 11.4
7.0 13.7
8.0
7.7 10.0
6.7
9.8
6.1
7.1
6.6
8.3
5.3
7.0
3.8
1.5
6.8
6.4
7.8
5.3
6.6
4.3
3.4
5.3
6.9
7.7
6.7
6.5
5.6
5,0
4.6
6.2
7.2
6.1
5.7
6.5
4.7
5.4
3.2
3.8
3.8
3.0 -1.0
6.7
5.7
3.2
6.2
5.9
5.0
4.4
4.1
4.7
4.6
7.7
5.4
5.0
2.8
1.0
2.1 -3.2
5.6
4.1
4.5
3.3
3.1
2.5
6.6
6.3
5.7
6.3
5.4
5.3
6.1
8.2
8.5 21.7
7.0
6.0
5.8
5.8
4.4
4.2
4.4
5.2
5.5
4.8
5.3
4.6
3.9
4.3
6.1
8.3 -3.5
5.5
6.5
6.3
5.8
6.3
5.5
6.0
6.1
5.9
7.4
6.1 16.6
6.9
7.3 11.0
7.0
6.4
7.0
6.4
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.1
8.6
8.7 12.0
6.8
7.4
8.9 15.7 14.8
77
7.4
8.5
8.7 10.2 10 6 13.6 n .6 17.2 17.5 20.2
7.6
8.2
7.9
7,4
7.6
8.2
7.7
8.2
9.7 12.1 10.2 14.0 13.1 12.3
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.9
8.3
9.5
4.8
5.7
6.6
7.4
7.9
7.2
7.6
7,2
7.8
8.0
9.2
9.3 11,3
9.6 12.5 11.4 10.4
7.5
7.3
8.1
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

520.4
519.0
544.0
544.8
562.6
571.0
573.1
580.5
590.7
589.2
600.2
595.3
625.2
619.6
643.9
666.5
697.9
706.2
717.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 2 ,1 9 9 5

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91
-9.1
- 10.7 -12.2
-3.0
0.2 14.4
0.2
3.5 12.4 10.4
1.2
7.9
5.4
4.0 10.0
7.5
2.1
4.5
9.2
6.0
6.6
9.9
8.8
8.3
3.6
5.9
9.8 13,0
9.7
8.7
4.2
6.2
8.3
8.4
9.3 10.7
9.2
8.4
8.0
6.3
7.4
4.4
9.3
8.6
9.5
8.8
6.9
8.6
8.8
5.1
9.2
9.9
9.6
6.0
7.6 10.1
9.4 10.1 10.8 10.3
9.8
9.3
9.7
7.6
9.2
6.1
9.7 10.2
8.3 10.4 10.0
9.9 10.5 11.1 10.7
6,8
8.4 10.3
9.9
7.0
9.9 10.4 10.9 10.6
9.1 10.9 10.6 10.7 11.2 11.7 11.6
7.8
9.5 11.3 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.0
8.2
9.6 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.6 12.0 11.9
8.4
9.7 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.5 11.9 11.8
8.5
9.7 11.1 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.6
8.6
3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

Dollars are measured using 1987 prices.
Second quarter data are final estimates.




Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

6.5
9.0 11.6
10.9 13.2 14.9
10.0 11.2 11.1
7.4
11.2 12.4 12.7 11.6 16.0
10.9 11.8 11.9 10.9 12.7
9.5
12.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 14.7 14.1 18.9
12.5 13.3 13.6 13.4 15.0 14.6 17.2 15.6
12.4 13.1 13.3 13.1 14.2 13.8 15.3 13.5 11.4
12.1 12.8 12.9 12.6 13.5 13.0 14.0 12.4 10.8 10.1
11.9 12.5 12.6 12.3 13.0 12.5 13.1 11.7 10.5 10.0 9.9
3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

557.2
539.4
557.8
571.8
579.4
588.8
607.1
619.4
629.3
646.8
669.6
681.6
707.4
723.6
755.6
783.5
805.0
824.6
844.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1989

199 0

1991

1992

1993

1 99 4

1995

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous
quarters until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus
previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bonk of St. Louis

U.S. In te rnation al T ra n sa ctio n s
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

2-95

1 -95

4-94

3-94

2-94

194,302

189,189

184,873

178,274

171,823

45,261

43,254

38,307

36,031

32,338

4-93

3-93

166,231

166,422

158,613

30,942

30,412

29,931

1 -94

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad
Imports
Goods and Services

-227,670 -218,629 -212,340 -207,081 -198,746 -189,247 -186,912 -180,601
-48,135

-45,215

-42,878

-38,564

-34,623

-30,826

-30,376

-26,741

Balance on Current Account

-43,622

-39,025

-43,277

-39,714

-37,986

-30,271

-31,176

-27,032

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad

-75,107

-75,343

-55,156

-27,940

-5,973

-36,783

-77,657

-46,270

Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S.

-2,722

-5,318

2,033

-165

3,537

-59

-673

-545

-72,228

-69,873

-56,258

-27,492

-10,001

-37,125

-76,666

-45,529

114,218

94,841

84,715

79,736

46,526

80,390

99,458

77,928

Foreign Official Assets

37,759

22,308

-421

19,691

9,162

10,977

24,311

19,386

Other Foreign Assets

76,459

72,533

85,136

60,045

37,364

69,413

75,147

58,542

U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1 99 4

1995

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

G ross Saving

G ross Private Saving

Period

S Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

1990:1

2
3
4

735.5
765.9
705.5
683.8

13.5
13.8
12.6
12.2

867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1

1991:1
2
3
4

798.8
744.5
722.1
740.1

14.2
13.0
12.5
12.8

1992:1
2
3
4

719.1
722.3
731.9
718.5

1993:1
2
3
4

%(

Gross Private
Dom estic Investm ent

U.S. Net
Foreign Investm ent

$ Billion

% of GDP

$ Billion

% of GDP

15.9
16.0
14.8
15.4

828.9
837.8
812.5
756.4

15.2
15.1
14.6
13.5

-80.3
-73.8
-92.1
-67.7

-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
-1.2

933.2
937.3
917.9
960.7

16.6
16.4
15.9
16.6

732.8
733.1
756.5
756.8

13.0
12.8
13.1
13.1

55.8
17.6
-22.2
-18.8

1.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.3

12.2
12.1
12.1
11.6

979.1
981.2
1005.3
957.5

16.6
16.4
16.6
15.5

747.7
787.9
795.5
822.0

12.7
13.2
13.2
13.3

-26.6
-54.1
-59.9
-85.6

-0.5
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4

760.1
775.0
788.9
825.8

12.2
12.3
12.4
12.7

1022.0
986.6
989.9
1011.4

16.4
15.7
15.6
15.6

853.8
869.7
882.2
922.5

13.7
13.8
13.9
14.2

-68.3
-88.9
-98.8
-113.2

-1.1
-1.4
-1.6
-1.7

1994:1
2
3
4

886.2
923.3
922.6
950.3

13.5
13.8
13.6
13.8

1037.3
1041.4
1052.7
1082.7

15.8
15.6
15.5
15.7

966.6
1034.4
1055.1
1075.6

14.7
15.5
15.5
15.6

-116.4
-135.1
-153.6
-167.7

-1.8
-2.0
-2.3
-2.4

1995:1
2

1006.0
983.8

14.4
14.0

1126.4
1090.0

16.1
15.5

1107.8
1094.1

15.9
15.6

-160.4
-177.3

-2.3
-2.5

Note: Gross Saving equals Gross Private Domestic Investment plus U.S. Net Foreign Investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
U.S. Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After-Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
7.4
35.4
24.6
15.2
14.1
14.7
11.1
3.7
11.6
10.2
11.8
13.4
14.3
11.4
12.5
11.9
10.9
10.7
10.8
3-90

4-90

1-91 2-91

70.7
5.4
34.1
18.0 -1.9
1.8
15.9
16.2
5.5
11.7
2.6
3.2 -5.1
5.6
12.1
4.7
10.5
7.1
12.2
14.0
9.5
14.9 10.8
7.9
11.8
12.9
9.3
12.2
8.9
11.2
8.0
10.8
7.9
11,0
8.2
4-90

-8.7
0.1
5.6
2.0
-7.1
5.6
4.6
7.3
9.9
11.4
8.1
9.7
9.1
8.2
8.1
8.4

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

1-92 2-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
3-92 4-92
1-93

9.7
13.6 17.6
5.8
3.9 -8.2
-6.7 -11.5 -23.3 -35.8
8.7
8,5
5.6 13.3 100.2
8.2 40.5
7.0
6.4
3.8
9.9
8.4 13.0 36.5
9.9
12.5 12.9 12.2 16.8 35.6
13.9 14.4 14.0 18.2 33.5
10.0 10.0
9.1 11.8 22.7
11.5 11.7 11.0 13.7 23.4
10.8 10.9 10.2 12.5 20.7
9.6
9.6
8.9 10.8
17.8
9.4
9.4
8.7 10.4 16.5
9.6
9.6
9.0 10.6 16,2
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92

-1.4
12.7
19.1
20.6
11.2
13.9
12.2
10.2
9.7
10,1
4-92

2-93

28.8
30.9
29.0
14.6
17.2
14.7
12.0
11.2
11.4
1-93

3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

33.1
29.1 25.3
10.2 0.3 -19.7
14.4 8.8
14 28.1
12.1
7.4
2.0 14.9
9.4
5.2 0.7
8.6
8.9
5.3
1.7
7.9
9.4 6.4
3,5
8.9
2-93

3-93 4-93

3.1
-0.1 -3.1
1.9
1.4
6.1
9.4 12.9
4.6
5,1
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95

Corporate Profits After-Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

225.8
258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6
272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8
282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4
324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7
349.8
360.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2 ,1 9 9 5

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)

Period

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
ProfitsiD

Capital
Dividends Con

Inventory
Capital
Valuation Consumption
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

1990: 1
2
3
4

382.6
409.3
367.5
362.8

250.6
269.5
221.8
225.8

149.9
154.6
155.7
153.7

360.4
365.0
371.3
376.2

-2.0
8.9
-31.5
-19.5

35.8
31.4
22.8
13.5

463.1
471.0
468.9
467.9

1991: 1
2
3
4

385.4
391.5
389.6
394.7

258.1
261.5
255.6
261.6

158.0
159.4
161.6
160.9

380.7
382.4
384.1
386.1

10.4
12.1
1.4
-0.8

13.7
18.9
22.5
22.4

470.5
472.4
476.7
487.6

1992: 1
2
3
4

412.1
412.6
363.2
432.5

272.4
266.6
238.6
283.8

161.0
166.8
174.4
182.1

388.6
391.3
410.4
396.8

-4.0
-16.6
-7.3
2.1

19.0
15.8
10.9
16.9

504.0
507.9
481.8
496.5

1993: 1
2
3
4

442.5
473.1
493.5
533.9

282.8
301.3
323.6
342.4

188.2
190.7
193.2
194.6

402.3
404.8
413.3
411.1

-11.2
-10.0
3.0
-6.5

21.0
26.5
31.7
38.8

508.0
525.4
540.6
565.5

1994: 1
2
3
4

508.2
546.4
556.0
560.3

324.1
344.8
347.4
344.7

196.3
202.5
207.9
213.9

432.2
425.9
432.6
438.0

-12.3
-14.1
-19.6
-32.1

37.0
37.4
37.5
38.8

572.2
582.3
591.7
600.9

1995: 1
2

569.7
581.1

349.8
360.6

217.1
219.9

445.3
454.7

-39.0
-28.2

38.1
35.2

616.9
623.7

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit( - )/ Surplus(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Period

1991: March
June
September
December

1992: March
June
September
December

1993: March
June
September
December

1994: March
June
September
December

1995: March
June

Gross
Federal Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal Debt

3465.4
3539.0
3678.0
3785.6

881.3
885.5
922.7
959.4

2585.6
2655.2
2755.9
2822.4

252.4
254.2
267.8
274.2

2343.4
2409.1
2498.2
2560.2

462.0
475.0
481.2
488.1

3884.6
3984.8
4078.7
4157.2

980.3
998.0
1019.4
1036.8

2905.2
2989.9
3059.5
3116.5

273.1
275.7
299.7
294.9

2646.7
2723.9
2775.2
2835.9

505.8
532.0
538.9
545.4

4237.1
4351.4
4426.9
4512.2

1061.6
1089.4
1119.9
1140.6

3175.8
3266.0
3307.0
3367.4

311.4
326.5
329.0
336.1

2877.6
2950.0
2993.9
3042.4

562.0
570.7
595.2
618.0

4585.2
4644.5
4709.1
4774.7

1162.5
1191.9
1216.2
1242.9

3422.8
3456.8
3492.5
3527.7

349.4
355.6
358.7
365.9

3077.1
3099.8
3139.5
3162.1

629.6
636.7
659.9
682.9

4875.1
4949.7

1277.8
1304.8

3598.2
3649.2

376.6
386.6

3221.4
3256.4

726.6
788.3

Federal Debt held Federal Debt held
by Federal
by Private
Reserve Banks
Investors

Federal Debt hel
by Foreign
Investors

Columns m ay not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TR E A S U R Y BULLETIN and also in the FE DER AL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Federal
Period
1990: 1
2
3
4

Federal. State and Local

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7

1257.8

-166.4

1266.5

-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

1268.3
1306.9

Period
1990: 1

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus/
Deficit(-)

1676.1

1808.0
1827.7

-131.9
-122.7

127.7

1848.6

-119.9
-179.3
-134.4

131.9
137.6

2
3
4

1705.0
1728.7
1726.5

I
131.9

1734.0
1744.7

1937.4

-192.8

1346.0

-207.6
-213.6

1991: 1
2
3

1905.8
1868.4

1768.5

1964.2

-195.8

1386.3

-245.8

4

1788.7

2009.4

-220.7

162.6

-279-9

1171.0

1435.6
1455.8

1813.5
1836.9

2073.5
2095.8

-260.0
-258.9

164.6
172.8

1166.5

1460.4

-293.9

1992: 1
2
3

1837.0

2110.5

-273.5

174.6

4

1219.9

1492.0

-272.1

4

1908.8

2147.9

-239.1

176.6

1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1
2

1212.7

1496.2

1263.7

1500.6

-283.5
-237.0

1993: 1
2
3
4
1994: 1
2
3
4
1995: 1
2

1901.0
1965.1

2162.9
2176.7

-261.9
-211.6

176.7
182.9

1980.9
2035.4

2181.9

-201.0

187.8

2221.0

-185.6

197.0

2066.5
2121.9

2217.6
2240.1

-151.1
-118.1

190.0
194.4

2138.8

2268.9

-130.1

200.3

2171.1

2303.4

-132.3

2211.2
2251.6

2331.7

1991: 1

1264.5
1329.4

3

1120.1
1121.8
1132.5

4

1140.5

1992: 1
2
3

1155.7

2

¡1

-144.4

-284.8

1272.7

1497.6

1313.6

1533.7

1337.4
1380.7

1513.7
1525.9

*176.2

1388.8

1542.8

-154.0

1408.8

1569.9

-161.1

1441.0
1475.5

1589.6
1605.1

-148.6
-129.6

-224.9
-220.1
-145.1

144.3
151.7
154.7

205.5

*
Fo
o

1115.8

211.0
215.7

-106.2

2357.9

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total government measures.

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Total Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1994

1593

1592

1551

1530

$1,257.7

$1,153.5
1.408.7

$1,090.5

$1,054.3
1.323.4

$1,031.3
1.252.7

-269.2

-221.4

1. 460.9
-203.2

-255.1

1 ,380.9
-290.4

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

National Income Account
Budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or Deficit(-)

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$1,379.0

$1,265.7

$1,178.3

$1,128.7

$1,111.4

1.538.1

1.507.0

1.460.9

1.331.6

1.274.9

-159.1

-241.4

-282.7

-202.9

-163.5

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimate is Congressional Budget Office baseline projection from TH E E C O N O M IC & B U D G ET O UTLO O K: U PDA TE (August 1995).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90

5,9

6.4

1.6
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.9
3.3
2.6
4.6
3.8
5.1
4.9
5.6
5.7
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.2

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

0.6
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.7
5,0
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.0
6.1
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.5
6.7

3.9
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.2
5.7
4.6
6.1
5.8
6.5
6.6
7.2
6.8
6.7
6.9
7.1

2.9
4.1
4.6
3.0
6.1
4.7
6.5
6.0
00

3-90
-2.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.8
1.2
19
2.4
1.9
3,7
3.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.7

2

4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

6.9
7.5
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.3

5.4
5.4
3.1
7.0
5.0
7.1
6.5
7.3
7.3
7.9
7.4
7.3
7.5
76

1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5.4
1.9
7.5
4.9
7.4
6.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.8

-1.5
8.5
4.8
7.9
6.9
8.0
7.9
8.6
7.9
7.7
7.8
8.0

19.6
8.1 -2.3
11.3 7.3
9.1
5.8
10.0 7.7
9.5
7.6
10.1 8.6
7.7
9.1
8.7
7,5
8.8
7.7
8.9
7.9

17.9
10.1
11.2
10.3
10.9
9.5
8.9
9.0
9.1

2.9
8.1
7.9
9.3
7.8
7.5
7.8
8.1

13.5
10.4
11.5
9.1
8.5
8.6
8.8

7.4
10.5
7.7
7.2
7.7
8.1

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

13.6
7.8
7.2
7.7
8.2

2.4
4.1
5.9
6.9

5.9
7.7
8.4

9.5
9.7

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

9.9

1,115.8
1,120.1
1,121.8
1,132.5
1,140.5
1,155.7
1.171.0
1,166.5
1,219.9
1,212.7
1,263.7
1,272.7
1,313.6
1,337.4
1,380.7
1,388.8
1,408.8
1,441.0
1,475.5

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1995

Federal Government Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-90
1-91
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

3-90
12.7
-0.6
6,5
6.1
7.4
8.6
8.2
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.3
5.7
6,0
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1

4-90
-12.4
3.5
4.0
6.1
7.8
7.5
6.6
6.8
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.7

3-90 4-90

1-91 2-91

22.2
13.3
13.0
13.5
11.9
10.1
9.9
8.8
7.9
7.0
7.3
6.2
6.0
5.8
5,9
5.9
5.8

5.1
8.7
10.8
9.5
7.8
8.0
7.0
6.2
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8

1-91 2-91

3-91 4-91

12.5
13.8
n .o

8.5
8.6
7.3
6.4
5.5
6.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
4,8

15.0
10.3
7.2
7.6
6.3
5.4
4.5
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.3

3-91 4-91

Initial Quarter
1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

5.7
3.5
5.3
4.2
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.5

1.3
5.0
3.7
3.1
2.3
3.5
2.3
2,4
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3

8.9
5.0
3.7
2.5
4.0
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.4
3.5

1.1
1.2
0.5
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.9
2.6
2.9
3.0

1.2
0.2
3.4
1.2
1.6
2.1
2.8
3.1
3.2

1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92




1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

-0.8
4.5
1.2
1.7
2.2
3.1
3.3
3,4

10.0
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.8
4.1
4.0

-5.1
-1 0
0.8
2.4
2.9
3,1

1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

3.3
3.9
5.0
5.0
4.8

4.5
5.9
5.6
5.2

7.2
6.2
5,4

5.1
4.5

1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

4.0

1,306.9
1,264.5
1,329.4
1,346.0
1,386.3
1,435.6
1,455.8
1,460.4
1,492.0
1,496.2
1,500.6
1,497.6
1,533.7
1,513.7
1,525.9
1,542.8
1,569.9
1,589.6
1,605.1

1-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loui;
October 2, 1995

27

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St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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